The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

A third losing week in a row. Hopefully, things can turn around this week As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 22-20

Kent State +6.5 Ball State

Their are three winless teams in college football: FBS neophyte Kennesaw State, new Mountain West member UTEP, and the Golden Flashes of Kent State. Kent State is 0-5 this season, and they have yet to beat an FBS team under second year head coach Ken Burns (not that Ken Burns). Despite those documented facts, I think the Golden Flashes are primed to get their first win of the season. Read on to find out why. For starters, Ball State is pretty bad in their own right. Their defense is in the running for the worst in college football. In their four games against FBS opponents, the Cardinals have allowed 207 total points. The Miami Hurricanes dropped 62 points on them, but more damning is the fact that the three Group of Five opponents they have faced, including two mid-level MAC teams (Central Michigan and Western Michigan) have averaged over 48 points per game, 498 yards per game, and over eight yards per play. That is not the type of defense you want to lay points on the road with, even against Kent State. And the Golden Flashes may have found something on offense. They scored 33 points in their most recent game (though they allowed 52) against Eastern Michigan. It was their second best point and yardage total under Burns. Off a bye, they should be able to move the ball and score points against a porous Ball State defense. Can they get enough stops of their own to clinch their first win? I think so. Ball State has only been a road favorite six times in eight seasons under head coach Mike Neu. They are 2-4 ATS in those games and are just 12-19 overall in MAC road games under Neu. Take the Golden Flashes and the points as they nab their first win since the end of the 2022 season. 

North Carolina +5 Georgia Tech

North Carolina is reeling, having lost three in a row, but I think this might be the spot to buy the proverbial dip (Skoal preferably). Speaking of threes, Georgia Tech has also won three straight in this series. The spread on this game indicates the betting market believes four in a row is likely, but this is a tremendous role reversal for these two teams. In each of the past three games, North Carolina entered both ranked and as a double digit favorite. I know North Carolina no longer has a future NFL quarterback taking snaps, but this spread may have gone too far in the other direction. This is also just the second time under Brent Key, and just the fourth time since Paul Johnson left, that Georgia Tech has been a favorite on the road. They are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 straight up in the three previous times they have been laying points away from Atlanta. Plus, just last week, Pitt was only laying two and a half to three points against the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. Is Georgia Tech better than Pitt? All those factors add up to a Tar Heel selection. Maybe Mack Brown crashes into retirement on a nine-game losing streak, but I think North Carolina has enough fight to win a few more games before the curtain closes, starting with this one against the Yellow Jackets. 

Buffalo +9.5 Toledo

With their victory against Miami last week, Toledo has now won nine straight regular season MAC games and are in good position to qualify for a third consecutive MAC Championship Game. However, I think the Rockets are a good fade candidate this week for several reasons. For starters, they are probably not as good as their 4-1 record would indicate. They are getting a lot of mileage out of their road blowout of a bad Mississippi State team. The Miami team they beat last week may also end up not being very good, and they lost their lone road game against a quality opponent (Western Kentucky). In addition, they may be overlooking the Bulls. Their next two games are against Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, two teams thought to also be contenders in the MAC. Finally, Buffalo is off a bye after being embarrassed by the Connecticut Huskies two weeks ago. The last thing the market saw was Buffalo losing by six touchdowns to Connecticut. But no team is ever really as bad as they look one week or as good as they look the next. The Bulls have a quality head coach with significant MAC experience and should be fresh and revitalized off their bye. Since joining the MAC, the Bulls are 3-1 straight up against Toledo at home and 4-0 ATS. Take the Bulls to keep this one close and potentially shake up the MAC race. 

South Florida +7 Memphis

This game was originally scheduled to be played on Friday night, but with the impending arrival of Hurricane Milton, has been moved to Saturday afternoon. If it is played, I think South Florida has a great shot at breaking out of their mini-skid. The Bulls have dropped two in a row and three of four. However, two of those losses came to teams currently ranked in the top ten (Alabama and Miami) and another team that may be end up being the AAC champion (Tulane). Two of those games (Alabama and Tulane) were also on the road, so a home date with Memphis will represent a significant downgrade in difficulty. While South Florida has faced two elite and one good team, Memphis has dealt with a relatively easy schedule. The three FBS teams the Tigers have beaten (Florida State, Middle Tennessee State, and Troy) have a combined 1-14 record against FBS opponents. The one good team Memphis faced absolutely throttled them. Navy needed a late interception to seal the win against the Tigers, but the Midshipmen rolled up over 550 yards of offense and averaged ten yards per play. South Florida probably won't put up numbers quite that good, but they should move the ball with relative ease and scored in the thirties at minimum. Memphis has been awful as a road favorite under Ryan Silverfield, posting a 4-8 ATS record. Navy exposed the Tigers defensive deficiencies and I expect South Florida to follow suit and win the game outright. 

Georgia State -1.5 Old Dominion

These two teams were picked to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt East division in the preseason, and outside of a shocking victory by Georgia State against Vanderbilt, have not done much to dissuade your humble narrator from thinking that is where they end up when the season is complete. Old Dominion put up a decent fight in their conference opener against Coastal Carolina last week, but they allowed 45 points and nearly eight yards per play to the Chanticleers. Since opening the year with a solid showing in Columbia against South Carolina, the Monarchs have allowed over 460 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play to their other four opponents. That is not a recipe for winning road conference games, particularly against a team with a competent passing offense. Christian Veilleux, a Pitt transfer, has thrown every pass for the Panthers this season and has posted solid numbers despite facing two power conference opponents. Meanwhile, the Monarchs may be without their starting quarterback. Grant Wilson was injured in their victory against Bowling Green two weeks ago. Backup Colton Joseph came on and led Old Dominion to an upset win with some big runs, but his performance was more uneven last week against Coastal Carolina. With another week of tape, and coming off a bye, I expect Georgia State to be prepared for his athleticism. Georgia State is the better team, is playing at home, and is off a bye. Take them to cover this small number. 

Vanderbilt +13.5 Kentucky

The Commodores have been in the news lately. They scored one of the biggest upsets of the season and in their history last week when they knocked off number one Alabama. With that win, I expected this number to be closer to a touchdown or perhaps even less. When I saw it was double digits I was shocked. Obviously, Vanderbilt needed some luck to knock off Alabama. They got it in the form of a pick six and a sack fumble that stopped an Alabama drive. Without those two plays, Vanderbilt probably loses. However, this was not an extremely fluky game that you can just wave off. The Commodores never trailed and actually outgained Alabama (thanks to running thirty more plays). They dominated the clock and converted short third and fourth downs like a triple option team which is spiritually, what the Commodores are this season. And when triple option teams have a dynamic quarterback, like Diego Pavia, they are capable of winning (and covering) as big underdogs. If the Commodores can shake off the massive media attention they generated after their victory against the Crimson Tide, they have a great shot at covering another big number. Kentucky is probably more talented than Vanderbilt, but this is not a team that should be laying double digits against a quality conference opponent. In their three games against SEC teams this season, the Wildcats have scored six, twelve, and twenty points. They will probably need to get to at least thirty to cover this number, and even then, that might not be enough. Vanderbilt is not the only team in this game that will be looking to play at a slow pace. Kentucky games actually see fewer possessions (ten per team) than Vanderbilt games (eleven per team). If there are fewer than twelve possessions apiece in this game, it will be very difficult for Kentucky to score enough to cover this number. Kentucky has also not done well as a large favorite under Mark Stoops. As a double digit home favorite, they are 10-13 ATS, but just 1-4 ATS against power conference opponents. And while they have dominated the series against Vanderbilt since Stoops arrived in 2013, winning eight of the eleven games, they have done poorly ATS, covering just four times. They have been double digit home favorites against Vanderbilt four times under Stoops. They have failed to cover each time and lost one of the games outright. Kentucky is coming off a bye and a top ten win of their own, but this Wildcat team is built to grind out conference games, not overwhelm opponents with their offensive prowess. Take Vanderbilt and the points and don't be shocked if they pull off their third outright upset as a double digit underdog. 

West Virginia +3 Iowa State

We knew before the season started that the Big 12 race would be one of the more unpredictable and fun ones in college football. And thus far, it has lived up to the hype. There are five teams currently unbeaten in Big 12 play and two of them are involved in this contest in Morgantown (BYU, Colorado, and Texas Tech are the other three). West Virginia dropped two games in the non-con (Penn State and Pitt), but they are still alive for a college football playoff bid under the new system. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 5-0 and does not face a team currently ranked in the AP Poll until late November. If they can avoid slipping up on this road trip, they could be 10-0 when they travel to Salt Lake City on November 23. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. Can the Cyclones escape their trip east? Unfortunately, for the Cyclones, the Mountaineers may be uniquely designed to pull off the upset. As they have done for the duration of the Matt Campbell era, Iowa State plays very good defense. However, their run defense has been a bit suspect. Iowa gained over 200 yards rushing and averaged over five yards per carry and Houston also averaged over five yards per rush against the Cyclones. West Virginia averages over five yards per carry on the season and mobile quarterback Garrett Greene has nearly 300 yards rushing thus far. Since joining the Big 12, West Virginia has beaten Iowa State two of three times in Morgantown. I think it will be three of four after Saturday night. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

Two losing weeks in a row, but we avoided absolute disaster. The calendar turns to October and Spooky Season, and your humble prognosticator gets back to work. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 19-16

Pittsburgh -2.5 North Carolina

After bottoming out at 3-9 last season, while fielding the worst offense of his tenure, Pat Narduzzi realized he needed to make a change. He nabbed a highly touted quarterback from the transfer portal, hired a successful offensive coordinator, and found a dynamic playmaker from the FCS ranks. The results thus far have been good. The Panthers are not an elite team, but they are fun to watch and the offensive issues have been fixed. The defense is still a work in progress, but the Panthers have already exceeded last season's win total and until they take their first loss, are a darkhorse candidate to get to the ACC Championship Game. They open conference play against a North Carolina squad that is reeling after a home loss to James Madison and a tough road loss where they blew a twenty point lead to archrival Duke. The Tar Heel defense has been particularly susceptible to the pass, which is not good news against the Pitt offense. North Carolina should be able to do some damage of their own against the less than formidable Pitt defense, but the Panthers are an enticing choice with this spread sitting at less than a field goal. You may think Pitt has been a bad favorite under Narduzzi, and you would be partially right. The Panthers have struggled ATS as a home favorite, posting a 10-16 ATS mark. However, when the betting market trusts them to lay points on the road, they have been rock solid. As a road favorite, they are 12-4 ATS. Meanwhile, you may be shocked to know that this is the first time North Carolina has been a home underdog since the 2020 season. The Tar Heels don't have a lot of experience in this role, and this feels like it could be the beginning of the end of the second Mack Brown era. Take the Panthers to move to 5-0. 

Massachusetts +17 Northern Illinois

These once and future conference foes meet for the first time in more than a decade. Their previous two meetings came at a different time for Northern Illinois football. Back then, Northern Illinois was  running roughshod through the MAC with Jordan Lynch and Tommylee Lewis helping the Huskies average nearly 40 points per game in 2012 and 2013. In those two seasons, Northern Illinois beat the Minutemen 63-0 and 63-19 respectively. This iteration of the Huskies is a contender in the MAC, but they play much slower and rely on a ball control offense. The Huskies scored 54 points against Western Illinois of the FCS in their opener, but have averaged under eighteen points per game against FBS competition. Granted, two of those were power conference teams (Notre Dame and NC State), and the Huskies even famously won one of those games, but they also scored just twenty points against Buffalo. Its hard to cover a three score spread, when you are unlikely to score in the mid-twenties. Northern Illinois is just 2-11 ATS as a home favorite under Thomas Hammock and 1-3 ATS as a double digit home favorite. They are a great team to back in the underdog role, but you don't want any part of laying points with them. Take the Minutemen to keep this one close. 

UAB +15 Tulane

Both of these teams were involved in blowouts last week. Tulane dominated South Florida as a slight home favorite and UAB could not stop the nouveau Navy option attack as a small home underdog. Had those results taken place during in the first game of the season, I could understand the reason for this large a spread. However, those games represented the fifth and fourth data points for Tulane and UAB respectively. That makes it very hard to comprehend why Tulane is such as large road favorite. Consider this. Two weeks ago, Tulane was a slight favorite at Louisiana-Lafayette (two points). Now they are laying more than two touchdowns on the road. Would the Ragin' Cajuns be installed as a thirteen point favorite against UAB on a neutral site? I doubt it. That tells me this spread is a bit too high. This pick is not in any way an endorsement of Trent Dilfer at UAB. He has been objectively awful, posting a 5-11 overall record (3-11 against FBS competition) at a school that was competing for and winning conference titles before his arrival. But this spread is too high, and the team that blasted UAB last week (Navy) may end up having the best offense in the AAC. Take the Blazers to cover this ridiculously high number. 

Appalachian State +3 Marshall

I always like to back a team that is coming off an embarrassing loss. And that is exactly what happened to the Mountaineers in their most recent outing. They were blasted a home by South Alabama on a showcase game on Thursday night. They were supposed to play Liberty last week, but Hurricane Helene forced that game to be canceled. I don't like to play psychologist very often, but one would think Appalachian State is motivated to play here, if not for their community, then as a diversion from what is sure to be a very difficult situation. The Mountaineers travel to Huntington to take on a Marshall team that has been an awful home favorite under Charles (not to be confused with Charlie) Huff. Since Huff arrived in Huntington, the Herd are just 4-8 ATS as a home favorite, five outright losses. Marshall barely survived at home against a mid-level MAC school last week. Take the Mountaineers to win their conference road opener. 

South Alabama -3.5 Arkansas State

South Alabama moved up to FBS in 2012 and and the Jaguars have played Arkansas State each season since. The Red Wolves dominated this series in the early going, winning the first five by over fourteen points per game. However, South Alabama has gone on a tear since, winning six of the past seven, including the past two in Jonesboro. South Alabama got off to a rough start, losing their first two games to North Texas and Ohio, but they are actually 1-0 in Sun Belt play and if they can beat the Red Wolves, will be 2-0 in the conference with four of their final six league games coming at home. South Alabama should be able to move the ball with ease against the Red Wolves. Arkansas State has allowed 6.7 yards per play on the year, and that includes games with Central Arkansas (FCS) and Tulsa. Two power conference teams not known for their offensive prowess (Iowa State and Michigan) also rolled through this Arkansas State defense (80 points and 925 total yards). Arkansas State will be able to score some points of their own against the vulnerable South Alabama defense, but in a game that should see a lot of possessions and a lot of points, I feel comfortable laying less than a touchdown. 

Washington -2.5 Michigan

Astute college football fans are probably asking why an unranked Washington team is favored against a top ten opponent. This is a legitimate question, but perhaps the better question is why is Michigan ranked in the top ten? The Wolverines have been outgained in all three of their games against power conference opponents, their starting quarterback is averaging less than four yards per pass, and they have played all their games at home up to this point. The Wolverines could easily be 2-3, while Washington could easily be 5-0 instead of 3-2. The Huskies have outgained all five of their opponents on the year and with four ranked teams left on the schedule after the Wolverines, as well as a dangerous trip to Iowa City, need to bank all the wins they can to ensure a third consecutive bowl trip. With their strong defense and power running game, Michigan can certainly win this game. However, the result of this game is heavily dependent on game script. If Michigan falls behind by ten or fourteen points early, there is almost no path for them to stage a comeback. Having not ventured outside the friendly confines of Ann Arbor yet, I think this is a game that can get away from them quickly. If this game is close in the fourth quarter, Michigan probably wins, but I think the more likely result is an avalanche of adversity on the road in Seattle. 

Duke +9.5 Georgia Tech

The Blue Devils are not getting any respect from the college football media despite their undefeated start. Duke is 5-0, and they, along with Liberty are the only unbeaten teams to not receive any votes in the most recent AP Poll. Great things were not expected of Duke in the preseason, but the Blue Devils have quietly put together a solid resume under first year head coach Manny Diaz. Duke has beaten two power conference teams with a cardinal direction in their name (Northwestern and North Carolina) along with a Connecticut team that may find it way to bowl eligibility. Their defense has been quite good, allowing under 300 yards per game and less than five yards per pass attempt. They also cause a lot of havoc, ranking second in the nation in tackles for loss (52). This trip to Atlanta represents their toughest test thus far, but if they are able to upset the Yellow Jackets, they could be 7-0 when SMU comes to Durham the last week of October. Georgia Tech is 3-2, but none of their victories have been particularly impressive. They beat a bad Florida State team in Ireland, with the Seminoles posting their best offensive numbers of the year. Their other two wins have come against Georgia State and VMI at home. As it was last season, the defense is the weak link of this team. In their last two games against power conference foes, Syracuse and Louisville have accumulated 840 total yards whole averaging 6.77 yards per play. Duke is not built for those kind of offensive numbers, but the Blue Devils should encounter little resistance moving the ball. The market has not caught on to how good (relatively) Duke is yet. And this is a role Manny Diaz has excelled in. Including his time at Miami, teams coached by Diaz are 7-1 ATS as a road underdog, with six outright wins. Similarly, this is a role where Brent Key's teams have struggled. The Yellow Jackets are 2-4 ATS as a home favorite under Key, with four outright losses. Take the Blue Devils to continue their winning ways.