2023 Yards Per Play: ACC

We are ten percent of the way through out offseason previews. Next conference up is the ACC.

Here are the 2023 ACC standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each ACC team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the ACC met this threshold? Here are ACC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

NC State and Florida State exceeded their expected record based on YPP, while Pittsburgh underachieved relative to their YPP numbers. For the Wolfpack and Seminoles, the reasons they exceeded their expected records are obvious. Both schools combined to finish 6-1 in one-score conference games and they were also the top two teams in terms of in-conference turnover margin in the ACC (at +10 and +6 respectively). As for Pittsburgh, I can't find anything in the stats that helps explain why their expected record differs so significantly from their actual record. The Panthers were not unlucky in close games (1-1) and their in-conference turnover margin was mediocre (-1). Their fourth down conversion rate and red zone touchdown rates were close to their opponents. They actually scored more non-offensive touchdowns (3) than they allowed (2) in ACC play. This one will remain a mystery. I suppose we can just lay the blame at the feet of Pat Narduzzi and his antiquated approach to offense. 

Moving On Up 

As you may have read or heard, the ACC has had some membership drama over the past year. I'm not a reporter and I am not in the business of making membership predictions, so I will be just as surprised as you when Clemson jumps to the Big 10 and the ACC replaces them with Memphis. Instead of dealing with hypotheticals, lets examine the universe as it is. 

When the Pac-12 died over the summer, the ACC tossed a life raft to Golden State nerd schools Cal and Stanford. Whether that life raft brought them on to a ship that was also sinking remains to be seen. While Cal and Stanford will be interesting fits in the ACC for however long the conference exists in its current incarnation, I think the more intriguing case is the third team from west of the Mississippi that is joining the league, the SMU Mustangs.

Before the term was coined, SMU was a member of a power conference. The Mustangs joined the Southwest Conference in 1918 and were members of the Texas cabal until the league dissolved after the 1995 season. SMU had a good run in the early 1980's, finishing ranked in each season from 1980 through 1984. That success was later deemed to be ill-gotten (check out the 30 for 30 film Pony Excess for details) and SMU was given the 'Death Penalty' for the reprehensible violation of paying college athletes. The 'Death Penalty' did its job and pretty much killed the SMU program. Thus, they were not a hot commodity when the Southwest Conference died and were forced to downgrade to the WAC (the nation's first Super Conference) in 1996. They have continued to bounce around since, joining Conference USA in 2005 and the AAC in 2013. Now, after nearly 30 years, they are back in a power conference. What then, are reasonable expectations in their first year in the 'big leagues'? To answer that, we look as we often do, to the past for guidance. 

Just a note before we dive into this, when I use the term 'power conference', I am referring to conferences that were part of the old BCS system and are now part of the Power Four (formerly Power Five) in the College Football Playoff era. SMU's move to the ACC marks the fifth time a power conference has drafted teams from non-power conferences to fill out its ranks. The first conference to do this was the Big East in 2004 and 2005. The league lost Miami and Virginia Tech to the ACC prior to the 2004 season and replaced them with a team in just their fifth year as an FBS program, the Connecticut Huskies. The following season, the Big East lost another team, Boston College, to the ACC and replaced the Eagles with three Conference USA teams (Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida). While this is technically two replacements, I'm grouping them together since they happened back to back in the same conference. How did those four newcomers perform?

Louisville and South Florida posted winning conference records in their first season in the Big East. And while these teams started out hot, Cincinnati had the most staying power in the league, posting winning conference records in six of their eight years as a member of the Big East. Collectively, these four teams combined to go 14-13 in their first season of Big East play. And while that is a winning record, it should be noted that only half the teams in the eight team league were power conference veterans (Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, and West Virginia). 

The next conference to bring a non-major conference team into their mix was the Pac-10 in 2011. The league added Colorado from the Big 12 and Utah from the Mountain West and rechristened themselves the Pac-12. Utah was a Mountain West power, but it took the Utes awhile to acclimate in their new league. 

The Utes posted losing conference records in each of their first three seasons in the Pac-12 before becoming a veritable power in the late aughts. The Utes played in four consecutive non-Covid Pac-12 Championship Games between 2018 and 2022, with the final two resulting in conference titles. 

The third conference to add a non-major team was the Big 12 which did so the very next season. The Big 12 brought West Virginia over from the Big East, but their non-major draft pick was TCU. The Horned Frogs were another Mountain West power, but they also struggled initially in their new home. 

The Horned Frogs had losing conference records in their first two seasons in the Big 12 and despite breaking through with a shared league title and near College Football Playoff bid in 2014, they have struggled to consistently win in league play, posting just five winning conference records in their twelve years in the league. 

After adding the Horned Frogs, the Big 12's membership was constant for a few years until the SEC surprised everyone and poached Oklahoma and Texas in the summer of 2021. The Sooners and Longhorns would remain in the league for three more seasons, but the Big 12 made plans to replace them by raiding the AAC. They brought over Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF in 2023 and augmented that trio with BYU which had been playing as an independent for more than a decade. However, to say those teams struggled when moving up is putting it lightly. 

The quartet combined for an 8-28 league record in 2023 and were just 4-24 against veteran Big 12 members. 

With that history, I think expectations should be muted for SMU, at least in their first season. The previous ten teams that moved up combined to finish 30-51 in league play in their first seasons in their new locales. Seven of the ten teams finished with losing conference records and the only teams that finished with winning records (Louisville and South Florida) played in a conference that was populated with other teams moving up. SMU finished ranked for the first time since 1984 and won the AAC last season, but they also finished 0-3 against Power Five opponents. All of those games came away from home and one was in a bowl where things can get weird. However, only one of those opponents could be classified as good. Oklahoma was top-fifteen last season, but TCU and Boston College were mid at best. SMU dominated their AAC opponents last season, but they only beat three teams that played in a bowl game (Rice, Memphis, and Tulane) The ACC is not the strongest power conference, but I think the Mustangs will struggle as they adjust to a more difficult schedule. If they win half their league games next season, I would consider that a success. 

2023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: AAC

Last week we looked at how AAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. 

Once again, here are the 2023 AAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, AAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Tulane won an incredible two and a half more games than we would have expected based on the ratio of their touchdowns scored and allowed in AAC play. The Green Wave also greatly exceeded their expected record based on YPP and we went over some reasons for that last week. Meanwhile Florida Atlantic won almost two fewer games than we would have expected based on their touchdown ratio. The Owls were not terrible in close games (1-2 in one-score league games) and they actually had a positive in-conference turnover margin (+3). So what was the reason for the disconnect between their actual record and their APR? Like UAB last week, I think the culprit is fourth down success. The Owls went for it on fourth down 25 times in AAC play and they converted those opportunities less than half the time (11). The Owls were particularly bad in their four-game losing streak to close the season. In that streak, they made 17 fourth down attempts and converted just six times. That amounts to eleven hidden turnovers over four games, two of which the Owls lost by three points apiece. 

Using the Preseason AP Poll to Make Conference Championship Game Bets

The title is straightforward and a bit of a mouthful, but it also serves as a good way to increase your bankroll when Championship Weekend rolls around. Allow me to explain. 

Three years a go, I wrote about how you can go about spotting a championship game blowout. The basic idea of the post is this: When handicapping college football championship games, one of the easiest (and most profitable) methods is to simply look at the preseason AP Poll. If one of the teams was ranked in the preseason AP Poll (particularly the top ten) and the other was not, betting on the team that was ranked in the preseason can usually lock in a profit for you. The table below lists the results for Power Five title games where one team was ranked in the preseason AP Poll and the other was not.

Those teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll have won more than 90% of championship games against teams that began the year unranked. While their ATS mark is not quite as strong, they have covered nearly twice as often as not. This situation played out twice in 2023. Florida State and Texas began the year ranked eighth and eleventh respectively in the preseason AP Poll and faced teams in their respective conference title games that were unranked in the preseason AP Poll (Louisville and Oklahoma State). The Seminoles (with their third string quarterback) and Longhorns both won and covered. 

If we look solely at teams that began the year in the top ten of the preseason AP Poll, the results are pretty similar. 

Those teams won their conference title game 93% of the time and covered over 64% of the time. 

Those were Power Five numbers. Does this trend hold at the Group of Five level? Glad you asked. As you may have guessed, teams from the Group of Five are much less likely to begin the season ranked in the preseason AP Poll. It's even less likely for said preseason ranked team to play in their conference title game against a team that was not in the preseason AP Poll. In fact, it has only happened seven times. 

Those seven teams won their conference title games over 70% of their time, but their ATS record was less definitive. This situation also played out in 2023 with Tulane facing SMU in the AAC Championship Game. Off a Cotton Bowl victory in 2022, the Green Wave were ranked in the preseason AP Poll, while SMU began the year unranked. Despite that difference, and despite the homefield advantage enjoyed by Tulane, the Mustangs dispatched the Green Wave to win their first conference title since 1984. 

So what should you do when making your championship game bets in December? For Power Five conferences, if you see a matchup between teams that fit these preseason ranked/unranked criteria, strongly consider backing the team ranked in the preseason AP Poll. If you can't pull the trigger, pass on the game, but under no circumstances should you back the team that began the season unranked. For Group of Five games, this law is much less ironclad, but if the Group of Five team was ranked in the preseason top ten of the AP Poll, they may be worth a look. 

2023 Yards Per Play: AAC

The college football season is over and the longest offseason in sports begins. To help you get through, we'll revisit all ten conferences as we have for the past seven years via conference only Yards Per Play numbers and the Adjusted Pythagorean Record to see which teams may have been better or worse than their actual record. We'll begin as we always do with the American Athletic Conference. 

Here are the 2023 AAC standings. 

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each AAC team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the AAC met this threshold? Here are AAC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Tulane and Memphis exceeded their expected record based on YPP while UAB fell short of theirs. Tulane and Memphis won all (or at least most) of the close ones, finishing a combined 7-1 in one-score conference games. Meanwhile, UAB was not unlucky in one-score league games, finishing 1-1 in such contests. Turnover margin also doesn't do a good job of explaining the dissonance between their expected record based on YPP and their actual record. The Blazers had a mediocre -1 turnover margin in league play. Once you dig deeper though, you find the culprit was fourth down success and red zone scoring. The Blazers went for it 18 times on fourth down in conference play and converted exactly half the time. Their defense faced 24 fourth down attempts and allowed 16 conversions. That is roughly seven hidden turnovers spread out over the course of an eight game conference slate. While the Blazers were about average in terms of fourth down success on offense, they struggled mightily in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. They had 31 red zone drives in league play and scored touchdowns on less than half of them (15). Meanwhile, their defense allowed 41 red zone drives and opponents netted a touchdown nearly 70% of the time (28). The Trent Dilfer hire was widely mocked, but fourth down conversions and red zone success can shift in the blink of an eye. I wouldn't be shocked if UAB returned to the postseason and contended for the AAC crown next season. 

The Worst Unbeatens

Ugliest supermodel, poorest billionaire, flabbiest bodybuilder. These are pejoratives most people would happily embrace. When humans developed numbers to classify and group things, the natural consequence was that someone or something would inevitably be the worst of that group. And in 2023, the Tulane Green Wave became the worst college football team to finish unbeaten in conference play (since 2005 using by my preferred YPP metric among teams that played a full conference schedule). It doesn't sound quite as impressive with all those caveats, but believe me, it is. For your viewing and reminiscing pleasure, the ten worst teams by YPP to finish unbeaten in conference play since 2005. 

No team will probably ever top Southern Cal's shortened 2020 unbeaten run. The Trojans played just five league games as the Pac-12 initially canceled their football season before reversing course and playing an abbreviated schedule beginning in November. 

Nine of these unbeaten teams played in conference title games, and despite their middling YPP numbers, they performed quite admirably, especially when they did not face off against another unbeaten (Tulane and Kent State faced off against unbeaten SMU and Northern Illinois teams respectively). 

Collectively, the nine teams were 5-4 straight up in their respective conference title games and 6-2-1 ATS. When not facing another unbeaten, they were 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS. 

Tulane may have failed in their effort to capture a second consecutive league title and they were not as good as their unbeaten record might otherwise indicate. However, winning all your games in league play, no matter the competition, is something to celebrate. 

Strangers in the Field Part VIII: How'd We Do?

Another football season has come and (almost gone). But our bets have all been finalized. Unfortunately, there is nothing to sweat in the NFL in Week 18. Let's take a look back and see how the predictions from our Vegas trip went. 

Games of the Year

The first two games were over before kickoff. We nailed the third and some shenanigans on an extra point costs us the fourth game. 

College Football Win Totals

Not too shabby. Nailed almost 60% of 39 total wagers. 

NFL Win Totals

We swept our NFL plays. The Panthers and Rams were easy winners (somehow the Panthers had a higher preseason win total than the Rams), the Falcons was a toss up that went our way, and the Vikings bet won thanks to all their injuries. However, after all the injuries to the Ravens that went against us in 2021, I will not be apologizing for any injury good fortune the fates happen to throw my way. 

Miscellaneous 

The conference title bets were never close to coming to fruition although Memphis was in contention in the AAC until the penultimate regular season game. Tampa Bay and Texas went into slumps as soon as I made these bets. The Rangers did have a two game lead in the division with four to play, but dropped three of their final four games to give the division to the Astros. Of course, they naturally went 13-4 once the playoffs started and won the World Series. Not that I'm bitter. And we got three of five games right on the parlay, but that gets us nothing. 

Money Wagered: $2345

Money Won: $2494.80

ROI: 6.39%

We had our third consecutive winning season and while the ROI is not nearly as large as last year's (nearly 22%), we'll take it and go back to the lab so we can do it again next year. 

Next Thursday we begin our offseason recaps with the AAC. See you then!

The Magnificent Seven: Bowl Season

We definitely did not perform well enough to qualify for a bowl this season, but I did get pretty good grades in college so I guess we qualified based on APR. Anyway, here are seven bowl picks. Hopefully they can be a little better than the picks we made during the regular season.

Last Week: 1-2

Overall: 42-51-1

New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, Louisiana

Louisiana-Lafayette +2.5 Jacksonville State

Thanks to the general mediocrity in college football this season, Jacksonville State will be playing in their first bowl game in school history in their first season as an FBS program. The Gamecocks won eight games under Rich Rodriguez, but they did it in an unexpected way. The Gamecocks played fast, ranking ninth in the nation in plays per game (74), but they were not overly efficient. In league play, the Gamecocks ranked seventh of nine teams in Conference USA in yards per play, ahead of another FBS neophyte (Sam Houston State) and Florida International. The running game was strong (and high volume), but Gamecock quarterbacks combined to complete just over half their passes. Instead, the Gamecocks won with an aggressive, play-making defense. They allowed just over five yards per play in conference action (5.01), ranking first in Conference USA. They averaged three sacks per game (tenth nationally) and over seven tackles per loss per game (seventeenth nationally) while forcing 25 turnovers (third nationally). Can the Ragin' Cajuns do enough to protect their quarterback and avoid disastrous turnovers to win this game? Louisiana-Lafayette was mediocre in sacks allowed, ranking 57th nationally, but it would be a fool's errand to predict the turnover margin for an individual game (the Ragin' Cajuns were -3 in the regular season). The reason I am backing Louisiana-Lafayette is because of schedule strength and location. Louisiana-Lafayette did not face an arduous schedule, but Jacksonville State had a schedule tailor made for easing into FBS action. Including Jacksonville State, Conference USA had just four bowl eligible teams and the Gamecocks beat up on the dregs of the league in getting to eight victories. In non-conference play, they beat an FCS team (East Tennessee State) and a bad MAC team (Eastern Michigan) while losing to a mediocre Sun Belt team (Coastal Carolina) and losing to, but acquitting themselves well against a mediocre SEC team (South Carolina). Their best win is a three-point home victory against Western Kentucky. Their best road win is either Sam Houston State or Middle Tennessee State. Louisiana-Lafayette is better than both those teams and this game is practically on the road. Louisiana-Lafayette has played in the New Orleans Bowl on six previous occasions (all since 2011) and they are 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS in the game. I expect a spirited crowd to help lead the Ragin' Cajuns to an upset win. 

Boca Raton Bowl @ Boca Raton, Florida

South Florida +3 Syracuse

Often times, bowl results come down to motivation, and I think its easy to see which teams comes into this game with more motivation. After beginning the 2018 season 7-0, the bottom fell out of the South Florida program. The Bulls lost their final six games of 2018 (with each loss coming by double digits) and then proceeded to win just four FBS games between 2018 and 2022 (8-37 overall record). Expectations were not high heading into 2023 with new head coach Alex Golesh and you probably remember the Bulls for a game they did not even win back in September. South Florida hosted Alabama back in Week 3 and while the Bulls were never really a threat to win the game, they hung around and lost just 17-3. That game might give you the false impression that South Florida plays an old-school defensive first style with a limited offense. That could not be further from the truth. In AAC play, South Florida ranked fifth in yards per play as they put up more than thirty points in five of their eight conference games. However, the Bulls needed a win in their regular season finale to clinch a bowl bid because of their defense. They played well against a struggling (at the time) Alabama offense, but once league play started, they ranked dead last in the AAC in yards allowed per play. They allowed at least thirty points in five of their eight league games and finished about how you might expect a team that is very good on one side of the ball and very bad on the other (4-4 in the AAC). But this is their first bowl game in five years and the Bulls will be facing a team that is present in body, but absent in spirit. Syracuse began the season 4-0 against a less than arduous schedule, but once ACC play began, the Orange rotted. Syracuse lost their first five league games by nearly 25 points per game and while they rebounded to win two of their final three (against the dregs of the league), that skid and the general malaise surrounding the program cost Dino Babers his job. The Orange head to this bowl game (where they are laying points may I remind you) with units that ranked thirteenth and eleventh in the ACC in yards per play on offense and defense respectively. South Florida is bad on one side of the ball, but I expect them to be highly motivated, whereas Syracuse is bad on both sides of the ball and seems to be anxious to get this season over with. Take the Bulls to get the win in their home state. 

Camelia Bowl @ Montgomery, Alabama

Northern Illinois +1 Arkansas State

Both teams in this bowl game rebounded from rough starts. Arkansas State began the year by getting outscored 110-3 by Oklahoma and Memphis. At that point, the Red Wolves were 5-21 under head coach Butch Jones and appeared to be heading for a one or two win season. One quarterback change later and the Red Wolves won six of their final ten games to get back to a bowl for the first time since 2019 (when they also played in the Camelia Bowl). Northern Illinois actually won their opener at Boston College, but lost their next four. Included in that quartet was a home loss to an FCS team. The Huskies won five of their final seven games and are back in a bowl for the second time in three seasons. Northern Illinois has been a great underdog under head coach Thomas Hammock, posting a 19-11 ATS record in the role in his five seasons. They utilize excellent underdog strategies by running the ball to milk the clock and going for it often on fourth down to maximize variance and scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, this is just the fifth time Arkansas State has entered as a favorite against an FBS opponent under Butch Jones. Despite winning five games against FBS opponents this season, four of those victories came as an underdog. The market has probably tilted too much toward Arkansas State. In terms of per play margin, Northern Illinois was the second best team in the MAC (behind Toledo), while Arkansas State was outgained by their Sun Belt opponents on a per play basis. I think the wrong team is favored here. Take the Huskies to win their first bowl game since 2011. 

Pop-Tarts Bowl @ Orlando, Florida

NC State +3 Kansas State

Dave Doeren has quietly put together a great run at NC State. In the last ten seasons, the Wolfpack had one down year (2019) when they went 1-7 in ACC play and things looked bleak in Raleigh. In the other nine seasons, the Wolfpack have won at least eight games seven times and beaten their archrivals in Chapel Hill seven times, including four times as an underdog. A victory here would give the Wolfpack ten wins for the first time since 2002 and give them their third ranked finish under Doeren. All that stands between them and the second best season of this century is a Kansas State team that may be overvalued by the market for a change. After posting a 10-3 ATS mark the previous two seasons as a favorite, the Wildcats were just 5-4 as a favorite this season and lost three of those games outright. In fact, if you look at Kansas State's schedule, there is not a whole lot of heft on it. The Wildcats did dominate a good Group of Five team (Troy) early in the season, but Kansas was the only other team they beat that finished with a winning record. The Wildcats were also slightly underwater in terms of yards per play in Big 12 action (-.09 per play) despite posting a 6-3 league record. NC State has a sneaky good defense, ranking fourth in the ACC in yards allowed per play. I think they will shut down the Kansas State run game and keep this a low scoring affair. Take the 'Pack and the points.  

Music City Bowl @ Nashville, Tennessee

Maryland +2.5 Auburn

I can admit when I'm wrong and I think I whiffed on my take regarding the Mike Locksley hire. This is Maryland's third consecutive bowl trip under Locksley, a not insignificant accomplishment considering they reside (until next year) in the same division as Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. In fact, over the past three seasons, Maryland is 22-5 against unranked teams. Of course, they are 0-11 against ranked opponents, so while they are clearly a solid program, they are a notch below the elite of college football. And speaking of not being elite, allow me to introduce you to Auburn. The Tigers finished bowl eligible in Hugh Freeze's first season in charge, but of their six regular season wins, five came against either FCS teams or FBS teams that finished with a losing record. The only FBS team they beat that did not finish with a losing record was Cal which finished 6-6. I think Auburn is getting an artificial boost thanks to playing in the SEC and nearly beating Alabama in the Iron bowl a few weeks ago. This game will be played in SEC country, but not in Jordan Hare. Maryland is the better team and should be favored. 

Arizona Bowl @ Tucson, Arizona

Wyoming -3 Toledo

This is the end of the line for Craig Bohl at Wyoming. The former North Dakota State head coach has been in Laramie for ten years. While the Cowboys never won a conference title under his watch, they did play for the Mountain West championship in 2016 and including this year, were bowl eligible in the past seven non-shortened seasons. Bohl consistently put solid to good Group of Five defenses on the field and played to that strength by running the hell out of the football. This season, Wyoming opened the year with an upset of Texas Tech on their home field and were 5-1 in mid-October. They lost back to back games to Air Force and Boise State to fall out of the conference race, but won three of their last four to get to eight regular season wins for the first time since 2016. They will face the MAC Championship Game loser for the third consecutive time in a bowl. The Cowboys dominated Kent State in 2021 and lost a tight game to Ohio in 2022. Toledo bookended their season with losses, first to Illinois in the opener and then to Miami in the MAC Championship Game. In between, they were the best team in the MAC, becoming the first MAC school to finish 8-0 in league play since Western Michigan in 2016. Special teams failures cost them against Miami and I think motivation will be an issue for the Rockets. Two weeks ago, they were ranked in the top 25 and a sizable favorite in their conference title game. Now, their quarterback is in the transfer portal and they are facing a team from a better league looking to send their head coach out with a win. Take the Cowboys to cover this small number. 

Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, California

Alabama +1.5 Michigan

I don't think Alabama deserved their spot in the College Football Playoff over Florida State. In the previous nine iterations of the invitational, the committee has tended to defer to 'most deserving' instead of best (whatever your preferred predictive rating system is). I think they erred in deviating from the script this season, but at the same time, I think Alabama has a great shot at putting another trophy in the case. This is not close to Saban's best team at Alabama, it may not even be top six, but the Tide have improved throughout the year and feature a dangerous if unpolished quarterback. Jalen Milroe is a bomb thrower. He averaged nearly sixteen yards per completion this season. By comparison, Bryce Young averaged 13.3 yards per completion in his Heisman winning campaign of 2021. The defense, while not world devouring like some previous units, was good enough (third in SEC play in yards allowed per play). The Crimson Tide will face a Michigan team that has not looked great in their past three games. Maryland played Michigan even statistically in a close loss and the Buckeyes actually outgained the Wolverines, but were done in by two Kyle McCord interceptions. The Wolverines blanked Iowa in the Big 10 Championship Game, but they mustered just 213 total yards and averaged 3.33 yards per play. Turnovers have buoyed the Wolverines in those three games (+7 margin), but the fickle bounces of the football can reverse course without warning. The Wolverines passing attack is not up to snuff to beat Alabama. The Wolverines have thrown just one touchdown pass in their past five games. You rarely find Alabama catching points under Nick Saban, so savor these opportunities and back the Tide. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IV

Since there are only ten games on the board this week, there shall only be three picks. That means I will hopefully not miss as many games as I have most weeks. The season is almost mercifully over. 

Last Week: 2- 5

Overall: 41-49-1

UNLV +2 Boise State

UNLV is in an interesting position, having backed into the Mountain West Championship Game. The Rebels lost last week to the hottest Mountain West team (San Jose State), to throw the league into a three-way tie. The computers decreed the Rebels and Broncos the two best teams and here we are. This is UNLV's first appearance in a conference title game and arguably the biggest game in school history (other contender is their regular season finale in 1984 when they hosted tenth ranked SMU). Meanwhile, this marks Boise State's second straight trip the Mountain West Championship Game (and sixth in seven seasons). However, the Broncos trip here was perhaps more bumpy. They dropped three of four non-conference games and were just 4-5 overall after a loss to Fresno State a month ago. They fired head coach Andy Avalos after beating New Mexico the following week and closed the season with two more victories to clinch a spot in the title game. The Broncos have not fared well away from the Smurf Turf this season, posting a 2-4 straight up record and a 1-4-1 ATS record. Meanwhile, UNLV has only lost once this season in Las Vegas. This game is also part of a trend in conference title games where it has been beneficial to fade road favorites. In Group of Five/non-BCS conference title games, road favorites are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 ATS. Comparatively, home favorites have done great straight up (29-8) and have been a coin flip against the spread (18-17-2). I like the Rebels to continue that trend at home and claim their first conference title since 1984. 

Appalachian State +6 Troy

Both Sun Belt Championship Game participants have rebounded from rough starts. Troy began the year 1-2, much like they started in 2022, before reeling off nine consecutive wins (with seven coming by double digits) to easily wrap up the Sun Belt West for a second straight season. Meanwhile, Appalachian State began the year 3-4, but won their last five games (with four coming by double digits) to claim the Sun Belt East for the second time in three seasons (on a technicality). For Appalachian State, the turnaround was due to their defense. In their first three Sun Belt games, the Mountaineers allowed 7.09 yards per play and 31.7 points per game. Over their final five conference games, the Mountaineers allowed 5.10 yards per play and 22.2 points per game. The offense, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, has been fantastic all season, and it will probably need to be again as it goes against one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. I think the Mountaineers have a shot to pull the upset since they faced a tougher schedule residing in the Sun Belt East. In addition, the Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS as a road underdog under head coach Shawn Clark and have not lost a game by more than a touchdown in more than a calendar year. 

Florida State -2.5 Louisville @ Charlotte

While the injury to Jordan Travis has dealt a major blow to Florida State's national title hopes, I think it has devalued them enough to make them a great play in this spot. A few years ago, I wrote about how preseason top ten teams tend to dominate conference title games against teams that began the season unranked. Those preseason top ten teams have gone 28-2 straight up in conference title games and have outscored their opponents by nearly twenty points per game. Louisville is a nice story, but their fantastic record is more a product of their schedule than elite play. The Seminoles have had a full game (in a hostile environment) to gameplan around the loss of their star quarterback. I think they are able to win by at least a touchdown against a good, but not great Louisville team. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII

Two good weeks in a row and three out of four. The yearly numbers are not quite as bad and there is an outside shot we could get back to .500. Again, that's far from a successful season, but better than it looked a month ago. 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 39-44-1

UTSA +3.5 Tulane

In a weird scheduling quirk, both of these teams are unbeaten in AAC play, yet neither has clinched a spot in the conference title game. The winner will obviously punch their ticket and the loser still has a snowball's chance (would need SMU to lose to Navy). Both the Roadrunners and Green Wave won their respective leagues last season, with UTSA beating North Texas in their final season in Conference USA and Tulane knocking off UCF on their way to an eventual upset of Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl. UTSA dropped off everyone's radar when they began the season 1-3. Elderly quarterback Frank Harris was dealing with some injury issues, but once conference play began, the team rounded into form. All but one of their league wins has come by double digits. Meanwhile, Tulane has the better overall record, but they have been far from dominant. Four of their league victories have come by a touchdown or less. Tulane and UTSA have faced five common league opponents. Tulane has outscored those five opponents by 40 total points. UTSA has outscored those same opponents by 89 total points. Despite the venue, I think the wrong team is favored here. Take the Roadrunners to win a third consecutive league title. 

Oregon State +13.5 Oregon

Before I dive into some reasons for backing the Beavers in this spot, I want to breakdown why I think the line itself is wrong. Indulge me. Last week, Oregon State was a slight home favorite against Washington. Once we factor in homefield advantage, that would mean the betting market views Washington and Oregon State as roughly equals on a neutral field. We'll give Washington the benefit of the doubt since they are unbeaten and Oregon State has a great homefield advantage and say they are two points better than Oregon State in the betting market. Six weeks ago, Washington and Oregon played a classic in Seattle with the Huskies winning 36-33. Washington was a slight favorite in that game, implying the betting market viewed Washington and Oregon as equals. If Washington and Oregon were roughly equals in the betting market and Washington was rated slightly higher than Oregon State, how is Oregon (with homefield advantage) rated nearly two touchdowns ahead of Oregon State? Using basic logic, I think there is value in this number. And that is before you consider the fact that this is a rivalry game (perhaps the last iteration for some time) and Oregon State's great run as an underdog under Jonathan Smith. Under Smith, the Beavers are 13-6 ATS (10-3 since 2019) as a road underdog and 8-4 ATS (6-1 since 2019) as a double digit road underdog. Oregon blasted the Beavers by 40 in Smith's first season (2018), but since then the games have been decided by an average of seven and a half points. Despite the loss to Washington last week, I expect Oregon State to be motivated. They can even keep the Ducks out of the Pac-12 Championship Game if they win and Arizona wins their Territorial Cup clash with Arizona State. This is too many points, so take the Beavers to get a dam cover. 

Ohio State +3.5 Michigan

This is the first time Ohio State has been an underdog in the regular season since Ryan Day became head coach. The Buckeyes have been underdogs on four occasions in the College Football Playoff, posting a 2-2 ATS mark. With apologies to Iowa, this has the feel of a College Football Play-In Game, with the winner getting in and the loser needing some chaos to sneak in. A similar scenario presented itself last season with both teams also entering with unbeaten records. Michigan won, but Ohio State managed to get in after Utah blasted Southern Cal in the Pac-12 Championship Game. That Ohio State team was better offensively with quarterback and future NFL star CJ Stroud leading the attack. The defense was a little leaky and that manifested itself in this game as the Wolverines gained over 250 yards on the ground and averaged over seven yards per carry. The script has been flipped this season. Ohio State's offense is not nearly as explosive despite the presence of Marvin Harrison Jr. But the defense is allowing under ten points per game. No team has scored more than 17 points against that unit. Interestingly, both defenses in this game had their worst point total showing against Maryland. The Terps scored 17 against Ohio State and 24 against Michigan last week. Michigan has the better defense by points per game, but Ohio State has faced a more difficult schedule, with Notre Dame serving as a great out of conference data point (something Michigan does not have). And while Ohio State's quarterback (Kyle McCord) was thought to be the weak link a few weeks ago, Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy has looked mortal the past two weeks against Penn State and Maryland. I think the last two weeks have sort of exposed the Wolverines. They are still one of the best teams in college football, but I think Ohio State is better, so I will take the points.  

Pittsburgh +6 Duke

Were I a Pitt fan, and believe me, I have enough problems as it is, I would be questioning where this new quarterback has been all season. Nate Yarnell got the start against Boston College and played well. Granted, it was at home and the Eagles have arguably the worst defense in the ACC, but his numbers were fantastic compared to the other two scrubs the Panthers have run out there this season. Phil Jurkovec and Christian Veilleux combined to complete barely half their passes this season. That might be acceptable for a triple option team or an NFL quarterback in the 1970's, but its downright horrible in 2023. Only four teams have a worse completion percentage than the Panthers. Yarnell's play gives the Panthers hope for the future and makes them an ideal team to take catching a touchdown against a team that appears to have run out of steam. Duke lost quarterback Riley Leonard to a gruesome injury in their fifth game against Notre Dame. Leonard missed just one game, but was ineffective upon his return and has not played in a month. His backups have not inspired much confidence either. Since Leonard's injury, the Blue Devils have lost four of six games, and outside of their overtime tilt with North Carolina, have averaged under twenty points per game. As I repeat often around these parts, its hard to cover when you can't score. Finally, one additional reason to back Pitt is head coach Pat Narduzzi's success against the Blue Devils. Under Narduzzi, the Panthers are 7-0 against Duke with four of the wins coming in Durham and three of those road victories coming as an underdog. 

Old Dominion -3 Georgia State

I faded Georgia State a few weeks ago when they were hosting Appalachian State because it appeared they were headed in the wrong direction. The Panthers began the season 6-1, but have lost four in a row and are in danger of ending the regular season on a five-game skid. What has happened? The schedule has toughened up. Georgia State began the season with games against Rhode Island (FCS), Connecticut, and Charlotte. Connecticut is 2-9 with one victory against an FBS opponent and Charlotte is 3-8 with two wins against FBS teams. In Sun Belt play, two of their first four games were against Marshall and Louisiana-Lafayette, two teams that are 5-6 heading into the final week of the season. They did beat Coastal Carolina on the road, but the Chanticleers are not what they were under Jamey Chadwell. Since beating Louisiana-Lafayette to get to 6-1, the Panthers have faced two of the best teams in the Sun Belt (Appalachian State and James Madison), a non-conference game against LSU, and their in-state rival Georgia Southern. Meanwhile, in Norfolk, Old Dominion is looking to double last season's win total and get to a second bowl game in three seasons under Ricky Rahne. The Monarchs have been nothing if not exciting in 2023. Nine of their eleven games have been decided by a touchdown or less. That includes games against an awesome James Madison, an ACC team (Wake Forest), and something called Texas A&M Commerce. In Sun Belt play, Old Dominion has outgained their opponents by more than half a yard per play (+0.59) while Georgia State has been outgained by more than a yard per play against Sun Belt foes (-1.20). That alone makes Old Dominion the play to cover this small number and get to bowl eligibility. 

Auburn +14.5 Alabama

When a team is embarrassed like Auburn was last week in an humbling home loss to New Mexico State, you have to expect them to bounce back the next week. Prior to that perplexing loss to the Aggies, Auburn had won three in a row, with each victory come against an SEC opponent. While Auburn could easily have overlooked New Mexico State last week with Alabama on deck, the shoe is on the other foot this week. Alabama has a date with Georgia in the SEC Championship Game next week and while Nick Saban will undoubtedly try to keep them focused on the task at hand, I would not be surprised if they started slow. During his historic run in Tuscaloosa, Saban has had a tough time when his teams have traveled to Jordan-Hare Stadium. Alabama is just 4-4 straight up in Jordan-Hare despite entering as favorites seven times. Alabama is just 2-6 ATS in those eight games, covering with one of the best defenses of the modern era in 2011 and again in 2015 against a limited Auburn offense. This Auburn offense is similarly limited, but Alabama, while a championship contender, is not up to the standards of Saban's previous world-devouring squads. In addition, Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze had decent success against Saban when he was at Ole Miss. In five meetings with Alabama, the Rebels were 2-3 straight up and 4-1 ATS. Freeze has also been great as a home underdog in all of his previous stops (Arkansas State, Ole Miss, and Liberty), posting a 10-5 ATS mark, including 4-2 as a double digit home underdog. I wouldn't be shocked if Auburn was tied or leading at the half before Alabama was able to put them away by about a touchdown or so. 

Iowa State +10 Kansas State

Are you ready for Farmageddon? While these teams are not each other's primary rival (that would be the in-state Hawkeyes and Jayhawks respectively), this is still a fun underrated matchup. Kansas State is in an unusual role in this spot as they are laying double-digits against the Cyclones for the first time since 2014. Usually, the Wildcats are underrated by the betting market, but I think they are a little overvalued in this spot. The Wildcats are the reigning Big 12 champions, but this team is not quite up to the standards of last year's championship squad. That's understandable as Kansas State is a developmental program and does not feature a revolving door of five stars. Kansas State's biggest strength is running the football, which is something Iowa State should be able to hold in check. The Cyclones also have the pass offense to take advantage of a Kansas State defense that has put up solid overall numbers, but has really feasted on bad offenses and backup quarterbacks. Missouri, UCF, Texas, and Kansas all put up at least 27 points against this defense. Iowa State should come close to that number and I think they can hold the Wildcats to the low thirties. This one has close game written all over it. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XII

We had our best week of the season. The overall numbers are still quite bad, but we'll see if we can close strong. 

Last Week: 6-1

Overall: 34-42-1

Appalachian State +10 James Madison

After back-to-back losses dropped them to 3-4 overall, Appalachian State has won three in a row and the Mountaineers have an outside shot at getting to the Sun Belt Championship Game. The defensive issues that plagued them in their first eight games (allowed nearly 31 points per game) have dissipated somewhat. The Mountaineers have allowed just 23 points in their past two games; easy victories against Marshall and Georgia State. Now they travel to Harrisonburg (along with College Game Day) to face the unbeaten James Madison Dukes. The Dukes crept into the AP Poll last season after a 5-0 start, but their stay was brief as they were knocked off by Georgia Southern the very next week. Their stay has been a little longer this season, as they enter their fourth week as a ranked team. The Dukes have dominated their past two opponents, beating Georgia State and Connecticut by a combined score of 86-20. However, the Dukes have played their share of tight games this season. Five of their ten wins have come by one-score, including three by a field goal or less. While James Madison has been clutch in their brief run as an FBS program (7-1 record in one-score games), Appalachian State has struggled in close games under Shawn Clark. Clark took over the Mountaineer program before the 2020 season and in his nearly four years in charge, they are just 7-12 in one-score games. However, it should be noted the Mountaineers have only lost 17 total games under Clark, meaning they usually keep games close. In fact, nine of their past ten losses have been by one-score. That makes them an ideal team to back as an underdog, especially one catching double-digits. James Madison will be able to move the ball and score against this defense that is not up to previous standards in Boone. However, the Mountaineers have one of the best quarterback in the Sun Belt (Joey Aguilar) and should be able to score enough to keep this one close. The Mountaineers have also done a great job at protecting Aguilar this season (just 13 sacks allowed) and should be able to neutralize one of James Madison's biggest strengths. The Dukes lead the nation with 43 sacks this season, but as I mentioned, the Mountaineers protect their quarterback well and James Madison will be without the services of Jalen Green, who has 15.5 sacks on the season. I expect a tight game worthy of College Game Day on Saturday. 

Hawaii +13.5 Wyoming

Wyoming's season started with such potential. The Cowboys upset Texas Tech in Laramie in their opener and won five of their first six games. They lost a tight game with Air Force, but had their bye after their battle with the Falcons. With just one conference loss, the Cowboys were contenders in the Mountain West. However, since returning from their bye, the Cowboys have dropped two of three and have struggled moving the ball. The Cowboys are averaging under 22 points per game in Mountain West play and have scored just 45 total points in the three games since their bye. The defense has also regressed. Boise State and UNLV torched their secondary (combined to average ten yards per pass) while Air Force and New Mexico shredded them on the ground (nearly 600 combined rushing yards). Needless to say, this is not the profile of a team you want to back laying double-digits. Hawaii has quietly won two in a row to move to 4-7 in Timmy Chang's second season in charge at his alma mater. These teams seem to be headed in opposite directions and while Wyoming should be favored, they should not be laying two touchdowns. Take the Warriors to keep this one close.  

North Texas -2.5 Tulsa

A pair of 3-7 teams under first year coaches play their penultimate regular season game on Saturday. This is definitely not the biggest game in the mid-afternoon window, but it might be one of the most high scoring. North Texas averages just over 33 points per game on offense and allows nearly 38 per game on defense. The current over/under on this game is just 66, so betting on a shootout might be a good play as well. The Mean Green have lost four in a row to end their dreams of a winning season, but all four losses have come to the cream of the crop in the AAC. Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, and SMU are a combined 32-8 overall and an amazing 23-1 in AAC play! Plus, North Texas was competitive in three of the four games, losing to Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA each by one possession. Their most recent game against SMU was more of a struggle, but I think that has served to artificially lower the price of the Mean Green in this spot. Tulsa is also 3-7, but the Golden Hurricane have lost five in a row, and while two of those defeats came to SMU and Tulane, the other three were Florida Atlantic, Rice, and Charlotte. North Texas is the better team and is laying less than a field goal, so they are the play. 

Sam Houston State +13 Western Kentucky

Despite what the betting market may believe, this is not the Western Kentucky team from 2021. That team featured an incredible Group of Five offense. Turnovers and close game variance are the only reasons they did not break through, win Conference USA, and potentially finish with a number beside their name in the AP Poll. To put that team's offensive numbers in the proper context, consider this: Western Kentucky faced ten FBS Group of Five teams (in other words, teams in Western Kentucky's weight class) in the regular season in 2021. They scored at least 30 points in all ten games. Here is how often they scored thirty or more against Group of Five opponents in the other four seasons Tyson Helton has been in charge.

2019: two times in nine games

2020: two times in nine games

2022: six times in ten games

2023: three times in eight games

Without Bailey Zappe and Zach Kittley, the offense degraded in 2022 and the trend has continued in 2023. The Hilltoppers have failed to score 30 points in each of their past four games (1-3 record) and are going to end up throwing for about half as many touchdown passes as they did in 2021 (63). If the Hilltoppers struggle getting to 30, it stands to reason they will have a hard time covering this big number, even against an FBS neophyte. Sam Houston State has struggled in their first season as an FBS program, losing their first eight games before knocking off Kennesaw State two weeks ago. They followed that win up with a road win at Louisiana Tech and are looking to close their maiden voyage in FBS on a strong note. The Bearkats were terrible on offense in the early going, managing just ten points in their first three games. However, once conference play began, the offense, while still below average, has managed to score multiple touchdowns. The Bearkats have averaged just under 27 points per game in league play and have lost four conference games by a touchdown or less. Western Kentucky should not be laying this many points. Take the Bearkats and the points. 

New Mexico State +24 Auburn

This is not a true So Con Saturday game, but spiritually, it fits the bill. Auburn preps for their Iron Bowl game with Alabama by facing a Conference USA squad that has not only clinched their second consecutive bowl game, but also an appearance in the Conference USA Championship Game. New Mexico State, under second year head coach Jerry Kill, lost at home to Massachusetts to open the season and appeared poised for a step back after last season's Quick Lane Bowl victory. Since that loss, the Aggies have won eight of ten with diminutive quarterback Diego Pavia leading them in both passing and rushing. That rushing attack, for both teams, is why I like the big underdog in this spot. Neither team pass frequently, as both rank in the bottom thirty nationally in pass attempts. With both teams keeping the ball on the ground, the clock will run, possessions will be minimized, and Auburn will have a tougher time getting margin. And with Alabama up next, Auburn has no incentive to run up the score. I expected this spread to be under twenty points, so I will happily take 24. 

Old Dominion +6 Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern is already bowl eligible for the second straight season under Clay Helton, but the Eagles have faded after a strong start. Georgia Southern began the year 4-1, with the only loss coming at Wisconsin when they outgained the Badgers, but turned the ball over six times. And while the Eagles are 3-3 in Sun Belt play, they are fortunate to have such a mediocre record. They have been outgained by those six league opponents by nearly one yard per play (-0.99). In all three of their conference victories, the Eagles returned an interception for a touchdown, helping them overcome situations where their opponents were more efficient on a play-by-play basis. Meanwhile, Old Dominion also sports an identical 3-3 league record, but the Monarchs have actually outgained their league opponents by more than half a yard per play (+0.64). Old Dominion has been incredibly unfortunate in their fourth down conversion rate. The Monarchs have only converted one of eight fourth downs in Sun Belt play, while their opponents have converted nine of fifteen (60%). In addition, all of Old Dominion's conference games have been decided by a touchdown or less. I expect more of the same here. Georgia Southern should probably be favored, but the spread should be less than a field goal. Laying nearly a touchdown, even at home, is too much. 

Syracuse +6.5 Georgia Tech

At this point, Georgia Tech is a pretty simple handicap under Brent Key. Back them as an underdog, and fade them as a favorite. As an underdog, either at home or away, Georgia Tech is 10-2 ATS under Key with eight outright victories! As a favorite (all of which have come at home), the Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS and have lost each game outright. Syracuse changed up their offense last week, eschewing the forward pass (nine passes for eight yards) and ran what amounts to a modified version of the single wing. That rushing attack would seem to match up perfectly with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets cannot stop the run, allowing 224 yards per game and 5.33 yards per carry on the season. Fade the Yellow Jackets yet again as a favorite. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XI

Whatever optimism we built up the week prior dissipated last week. Oh well. There's always next year. 

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 28-41-1

Wake Forest +2.5 NC State

As a Wake Forest fan and alum, I have watched portions of every game in this series for at least the past quarter century. And anecdotally, it always seemed like the home team managed to win. When I fact-checked those numbers, that was indeed the case. Since 1996, Wake Forest has won twice in Raleigh (2006 and 2018). Since 1997, NC State has won twice in Winston-Salem (2001 and 2015). Thus, in the past 27 games in this series, the home team is an incredible 23-4! I think there is a good chance that trend continues on Saturday. Wake Forest played one of their best games on the season offensively on the road at Duke last week. The team netted just 21 points, but they racked up 400 yards of total offense and averaged over six yards per play for the first time since their second game of the year against Vanderbilt. Missed kicks and costly turnovers did them in against a quality Duke squad. Meanwhile, NC State is probably a little overvalued after winning back to back home games as an underdog against Clemson and Miami. The Wolfpack are 22-4 straight up in Raleigh since the start of the 2020 season. The road has been much less hospitable (6-9 in road ACC games in that span). I expect a tight game where points are at a premium, so take the underdog. 

Appalachian State +2 Georgia State

Its been a rough year for the Mountaineers from Boone. Their defense has been uncharacteristically poor and has let them down on numerous occasions. Despite their defensive struggles, the Mountaineers have been in almost every game and still have an outside shot at winning the Sun Belt. Each of their four losses has come by a touchdown or less, and the Mountaineers led in three of those losses in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Georgia State has hit a rough patch after a solid start. The Panthers have lost two in a row and four of six after a 4-0 start. A closer look reveals the schedule is the likely culprit. In their first three games, Georgia State beat Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Charlotte. Those squads have combined for three victories against FBS teams. Their fourth victory was legitimately impressive, as they won at Coastal Carolina. Based on recent results though, that was before the Chanticleers got rolling under first year head coach Tim Beck. Appalachian State has dominated this series, winning all nine meetings since joining the Sun Belt in 2014 with eight of the wins (including each one in Atlanta) coming by double digits. This is also the first time Georgia State has been favored in this series. These teams appear to be trending in opposite directions and the series history makes the Mountaineers the pick. 

Missouri +1.5 Tennessee

I don't quite understand this spread. Missouri has only lost two games all season (Georgia and LSU) and the Tigers were competitive in both defeats. The Tigers have also been dominant in their league victories, with all three of their SEC wins coming by double digits. Meanwhile, Tennessee has dropped two of their three SEC road games. The loss to Alabama is understandable, but losing in The Swamp to Florida would make me wary of backing this team away from Knoxville. As expected, with the loss of Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt, the Vols have not been as explosive offensively. Last season, against SEC foes, they averaged over 43 points per game. This season, those numbers are a much more mortal 26 per game. The Vols can still dominate overmatched opponents. Witness their scoring averages against Austin Peay, Connecticut, UTSA, and Virginia (nearly 46 points per game), but they are right around average against SEC opponents. Take the Tigers to pull off this slight upset. 

Coastal Carolina +1.5 Texas State

I'm glad Texas State will be playing in a bowl game for the first time in their brief history as an FBS program. However, are we giving them a little too much respect in this spot? After dropping their first two Sun Belt games to Georgia State and Georgia Southern, the Chanticleers have reeled off four consecutive victories and have a decent chance to get back to the Sun Belt Championship Game. Actually winning that game may prove to be a trifle difficult, so perhaps they can root for James Madison to win their NCAA appeal. But I digress. The Chanticleers have done this despite losing supernova quarterback Grayson McCall to an injury three weeks ago. Without McCall, the Chanticleers put up over 400 yards in each of their next two games and scored 62 combined points. Texas State has a winning Sun Belt record (3-2), but they are actually slightly underwater in terms of Net YPP in league play (- .05). Meanwhile, Coastal has outgained their Sun Belt opponents by nearly a yard per play (+ 0.97). The wrong team is favored here. 

Cal -1.5 Washington State

Washington State is leaking oil. After beginning the year 4-0, the Cougars have dropped five in a row. A few of the losses are understandable. Road trips to UCLA and Oregon were tough as was a home date with Arizona. However, their two most recent defeats (at Arizona State and home to Stanford) were bad. The Cougars managed just seven points against a woeful Stanford defense and now need to win two of their final three games to even qualify for a bowl. Their opponent in this game, Cal, will likely miss out on a bowl for the fourth consecutive season as they have dropped four in a row to fall to 3-6. In fairness though, four of their six losses have come to teams currently ranked in the top fifteen of the College Football Playoff Rankings. The other two came to Southern Cal and an SEC school (Auburn). I don't like laying points with Cal, but this number is too low to not back the Bears. 

TCU +10 Texas

Since joining the Big 12 in 2012 and getting an annual shot at their big brother, TCU has performed quite well against the marquee football program in Texas. The Horned Frogs are 8-3 both straight up and ATS against the Longhorns. Coming off an appearance in the College Football Playoff (something Texas has yet to accomplish), the Horned Frogs have struggled. They opened the season by faceplanting against Colorado, then won three in a row to temporarily right the ship. However, since beating a pretty good SMU team, the Horned Frogs have dropped four of five and are in danger of missing out on the postseason entirely. However, three of those four losses came away from Fort Worth. Returning to the friendly confines, I think TCU will put up a fight in the last game they will play against Texas for the foreseeable future. The Longhorns are just 7-9 straight up in road or neutral field games under Steve Sarkisian. Would a close victory or even a loss to the Horned Frogs really surprise you? 

San Jose State +1 Fresno State

San Jose State faced an arduous early season schedule. The Spartans played Southern Cal, Toledo, and Boise State on the road while hosting Oregon State and Air Force. They lost all five of those games (the Toledo and Boise games were close) and were 1-5 halfway through the season. However, once the schedule eased up, the Spartans surged. They have dominated their past three opponents, winning by a combined margin of 129-45. Neither of those three teams (New Mexico, Utah State, and Hawaii) are much to write home about, but I think we can learn something from that domination. Now, the Spartans not only have a chance to get to a second consecutive bowl game, but they also have an outside shot at getting to the Mountain West Championship Game as two of the teams ahead of them in the standings (Fresno State and UNLV) are still on the schedule. While San Jose State had a rough start to 2023, Fresno won their first five games and earned a spot in the AP Poll. They dropped a game at Wyoming (who hasn't?), but have won three in a row and have eyes on a second consecutive berth in the Mountain West Championship Game. As someone who has watched a great deal of Fresno State games and is holding a soon to be worthless under 8.5 wins ticket, the Bulldogs are not that good. However, they have made the plays when it counted, posting a 5-1 record in close games. Their past three victories have all come by a touchdown or less and the Bulldogs are +5 in turnover margin in those three games. The ball will eventually stop bouncing Fresno's way and I think it starts Saturday night.