College Football Plays
Over/Under Win Totals
I made a ton of college football win total bets (39 in all), so I figured it would be easier to group them by conference rather than going down the lost alphabetically.
AAC Plays
East Carolina over 5.5 wins ($25 to win $50)
Call this a 'trust in Mike Houston' bet. The Pirates lost their long-time quarterback and have a tough schedule, but I think they can eke out bowl eligibility.
Memphis over 7.5 wins ($40 to win $65)
Its now or never for Ryan Silverfield. With the departures of Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF, I think the Tigers are poised to in the AAC.
Navy under 6.5 wins ($25 to win $41.65)
The Midshipmen have won eight games over the past two seasons. They would have to win seven for me to lose this bet. They will spring an upset or two, but I don't think that will be enough for them to eclipse six regular season wins.
Temple over 5.5 wins ($25 to win $55)
The Owls played well down the stretch last season. Despite losing four of their final five games, three of the losses came by a touchdown or less. I think the Owls coalesce in their second season under Stan Drayton.
Tulane under 9 wins ($40 to win $80)
I really wanted nine and a half, but I think the Green Wave are much more likely to win eight than ten. Prior to last season, they had not won more than six games in the regular season under Willie Fritz.
ACC Plays
Boston College over 5.5 ($25 to win $43.50)
Boston College over 5.5 ($25 to win $46.75)
I bet this number at two different places after I saw the price was still good. Boston College will not have as many injuries along their offensive line as they did last season and they could very easily go 4-0 in the non-conference portion of their schedule meaning they just need to find a pair of ACC victories to cash this ticket.
Georgia Tech under 4.5 ($60 ton win $102.85)
If you read my ACC offseason recap, you know I think their success under Brent Key was mostly smoke and mirrors. The ceiling on this team is six wins. I don't think they get close to that number.
North Carolina under 8.5 ($40 to win $65.80)
The Tar Heels have three tricky non-conference games (South Carolina, Appalachian State, and Minnesota), so a loss is not out of the question. Plus they close with road games against Clemson and NC State. This team will win their share of shootouts, but I think they lose at least four times.
Virginia Tech over 5.5 ($25 to win $62.50)
There are s lot of tossups on this schedule and I think the Hokies win enough of them to get back to a bowl.
Wake Forest over 6 ($40 to win $76.35)
The loss of Sam Hartman will hurt, but Wake has quietly put together six consecutive seasons of averaging at least 30 points per game on offense. The Deacons should be 4-0 before the schedule stiffens considerably. I expect at least one home upset (Florida State, NC State, or Pitt) and another bowl campaign.
Big 10 Plays
Michigan under 10.5 ($40 to win $78.10)
The Wolverines were not quite as good as their unbeaten record would indicate last season and while the non-conference schedule is soft, there are five tricky to difficult conference road games before they face Ohio State (Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Penn State).
Big 12 Plays
Houston over 4.5 ($25 to win $44.25)
I expect the Cougars to struggle adjusting to Power Five life, but their non-conference slate has three winnable games (UTSA, Rice, and Sam Houston) and they have five conference homes games.
Iowa State over 5.5 ($300 to win $572.75)
Oooh boy. If I could have one bet back. I will take solace in the fact that Hunter Dekkers was below average by Big 12 standards last season, so the unknown quantity at quarterback may be an upgrade. Still, I don't feel great about this one.
TCU under 7.5 ($25 to win $55)
The Horned Frogs won't be as fortunate in close games and opposing quarterback injuries this season. Also, watch out for the non-conference game against SMU. The Mustangs have beaten the Horned Frogs in their past two visits to Fort Worth.
Texas Tech under 7.5 ($25 to win $45)
Not buying the hype. Last season, they finished with a winning conference record for the first time since 2009! Even if they finish with another winning league record, there are two tough non-conference games on the schedule (Wyoming and Oregon).
CUSA Plays
Louisiana Tech over 5.5 wins ($40 to win $62.85)
The Bulldogs will probably lose three of their four non-conference games, but there are wins to be had in the watered down Conference USA
Middle Tennessee State under 6.5 ($25 to win $48.80)
I've been a Blue Raider stan the past two seasons, but the Blue Raiders will definitely lose two non-conference games and could lose three (Alabama, Colorado State, and Missouri). They also face Liberty and Western Kentucky on the road in league play. I think seven wins is the ceiling for this team.
UTEP over 5.5 wins ($60 to win $106.15)
The Miners could get halfway to their win total in non-conference play (Arizona, Incarnate Word, Northwestern, and UNLV). Plus their road conference schedule features two FBS newbies (Jacksonville State and Sam Houston). The Miners are a real sleeper in Conference USA.
MAC Plays
Akron over 4 wins ($300 to win $600)
I really wanted three and a half, but I think the Zips are poised for a meteoric rise in 2023 in their second season under Joe Moorhead.
Bowling Green under 4.5 wins ($60 to win $129)
After winning seven games under Scot Loeffler in his first three seasons, the Falcons won seven in 2022 despite being outscored by nine points per game. I expect serious regression in 2023.
Buffalo under 6 wins ($25 to win $53.75)
The Bulls barely eked out bowl eligibility last season and I think this team is worse with a more difficult schedule.
Central Michigan over 5.5 wins ($25 to win $46.75)
Maybe this is a square take, but I think Bert Emanuel Jr. could lead the Chippewas to a MAC title in 2023.
Ohio under 7.5 wins ($25 to win $50)
I'll take a flyer on regression for the Bobcats who are dealing with the return of an injured quarterback and a tough non-conference schedule (Florida Atlantic, Iowa State, and San Diego State).
Mountain West Plays
Colorado State over 4.5 wins ($25 to win $41.65)
The Rams will be better in Jay Norvell's second season and should contend for a bowl bid.
Fresno State under 8.5 wins ($25 to win $43.50)
The Bulldogs will miss Jake Haener and play two Power Five teams on the road (Arizona State and Purdue).
New Mexico over 3 wins ($40 to win $69.65)
New Mexico over 3.5 wins ($25 to win $55)
The Lobos lost all their Mountain West games last season despite a solid first half point differential. If the offense can go from bad to slightly below average, this team could get to a bowl game. They added UAB transfer Dylan Hopkins to play quarterback in the offseason. Hopkins joins his former coach Bryant Vincent (interim last season at UAB) who is the new offensive coordinator.
Wyoming over 5.5 wins ($40 to win $76.35)
The Cowboys have won at least six regular season games in each of the past six non-Covid regular seasons. I'll bet on that consistency continuing.
Pac-12 Plays
Oregon under 9.5 wins ($25 to win $44.25)
Utah under 8.5 wins ($25 to win $42.25)
Washington under 9.5 wins ($25 to win $42.25)
Nassim Nicholas Talib has spilled copious amounts of ink encouraging investors to be 'antifragile'. I think betting against the top of the Pac-12 is a perfect example of this. First a little background. Last season the Pac-12 was quite strong. There were six good to very good teams (Oregon, Oregon State, Southern Cal, UCLA, Utah, and Washington). Those teams combined to lose just two games against the other six teams in the conference. I think a few of those bottom six teams will improve significantly this season. Arizona had a great offense last season. Arizona State made a great potential hire in Kenny Dillingham. Cal always has a strong defense under Justin Wilcox. Colorado is the biggest wildcard in college football with their roster turnover. Stanford...well, maybe not Stanford. And Washington State posted a great first half point differential last season despite their middling record. Some improvement among those six teams means more potential losses for the top teams. Plus, each member of this trio has some signs of regressions. Oregon lost their offensive coordinator to Arizona State. Utah's starting quarterback suffered a major injury in their bowl game and the Utes face two Power Five teams in the non-conference (Baylor and Florida). And Washington went from unranked in the preseason to a top ten finish last season.
Stanford over 2.5 wins ($25 to win $44.25)
The Cardinal will probably be bad in 2023, but their coach had great success at the FCS level and the non-conference schedule includes both Hawaii and Sacramento State. If the Cardinal win both, they will need to win just a single Pac-12 game to eclipse this modest win total.
SEC Plays
LSU under 9.5 wins ($25 to win $50)
By YPP LSU was one of the worst teams to play in the SEC Championship Game last season. I think they are due for some regression in Brian Kelly's second year.
Sun Belt Plays
Appalachian State over 6.5 wins ($300 to win $506.90)
The Mountaineers finished with their worst record as an FBS teams last season (6-6). However, five of those six losses came by a touchdown or less. I think they bounce back this season.
Arkansas State over 4.5 wins ($40 to win $72)
I think the Red Wolves get it done in Year 3 under Butch Jones. And by get it done, I mean almost get to a bowl.
Georgia State over 5.5 wins ($40 to win $98)
The Panthers have a chance to begin the season 3-0 (Charlotte, Connecticut, and Rhode Island). If they do, I think they have a great shot at getting to a bowl.
South Alabama under 7.5 wins ($25 to win $46.75)
The Jaguars won seven Sun Belt games last season, but five of those wins came by a touchdown or less. I think regression comes for the Jaguars in 2023.
Troy under 8.5 wins ($25 to win $47.70)
Troy has a fantastic defense last season as evidenced by them winning games despite scoring under twenty points five times. A little slippage on defense will result in more defeats.
College Football Game of the Year Lines
September 15
Michigan State +10.5 Washington ($25 to win $47.75)
What a difference a year makes. Last offseason, Michigan State was a slight favorite in Seattle. Now they are catching double digits at home. I make this spread about a touchdown so I will take a little value in the Spartans.
October 7
Minnesota +13.5 Michigan ($25 to win $47.75)
I mentioned Michigan has some tricky road games and this certainly qualifies. The Wolverines play their first road game at Nebraska the week before while Minnesota faces Louisiana-Lafayette.
November 4
Army +9.5 Air Force @ Denver ($25 to win $47.75)
Two service academies facing each other with a spread greater than a touchdown always entices me to take the underdog.
November 11
Iowa State +8.5 Texas ($25 to win $47.75)
As I mentioned in the Iowa State write up, I don't feel great about this one. However, if you need a coach to blow a winnable game on the road, Steve Sarkisian is one of your better choices.
College Football Futures
Akron to win MAC +3000 ($10 to win $300)
The MAC is the perfect conference to take a longshot and the Zips appear to be the perfect team to back in that role in 2023.
Memphis to win AAC +800 ($10 to win $80)
The AAC is weaker with the departures of Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF to the Big 12. I think Memphis is poised to rise in that power vacuum.
UTEP to win CUSA +1000 ($10 to win $100)
Conference USA is also weaker with the departure of six programs to the AAC. Western Kentucky is probably the best team in the league, but no team seems head and shoulders above the rest.
College Football Parlay ($20 to win $507.20 -- all must hit)
August 26th
Massachusetts +9 New Mexico State
Should New Mexico State be laying nearly double digits against any FBS team?
September 2nd
Fresno State +5.5 Purdue
I think Fresno will regress in 2023, but Purdue is trending downward as well.
Colorado +20 TCU
Colorado is one of the great unknowns heading into 2023. I don't think they will win a lot of games this season, but they should be better.
North Texas +10 California
This is a dangerous road trip for Cal. The Bears always struggle to score points, so should not be laying double digits on the road.
Virginia +28 Tennessee @ Nashville
I think Tennessee will take a step back offensively, particularly early in the season, so I'll begrudgingly take Virginia catching four touchdowns.
NFL Plays
Over/Under Win Totals
Atlanta Falcons under 8.5 wins ($25 to win $56.25)
The Falcons finished 7-10 last season and despite the general expected weakness of the NFC South, I don't see them finishing 2023 with a winning record.
Carolina Panthers under 7.5 wins ($25 to win $51.25)
The Panthers somehow won seven games last season despite a midseason coaching change. Now they appear to have a quality coach, but I think their rookie quarterback with have some growing pains.
Los Angeles Rams over 6.5 wins ($25 to win $53.75)
The Rams went from Super Bow champion to 5-12 also ran. I think they bounceback somewhat in 2023.
Minnesota Vikings under 8.5 wins ($25 to win $52.50)
The Vikings won 13 games last season, but were actually outscored on the season. I think their record this season is more indicative of last season's scoring margin.
MLB Division
Tampa Bay Rays to win AL East ($20 to win $31.45)
The Rays were tied with the Orioles when I made this bet, but they have lost a starting pitcher to Tommy John surgery, a position player to the exempt list, and the Orioles have been on fire.
Texas Rangers to win AL West ($20 to win $30.80)
The Rangers had a two game lead and a great run differential when I made this bet and they have maintained both thus far.
Thanks for reading my annual Vegas trip summary. The season gets underway in ten days with Week Zero. There won't be enough games for spread picks, but I'll be back with weekly picks in a little under two weeks.
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