Weekend Six-Pack:
ACC Game: Florida St. at Virginia
Its been 10 years since the Cavs upset the 'Noles on that Thursday night in Charlottesville. In the decade that has passed, that win has turned out to be more of a random upset than a program-definer. Since that time, Florida St. has played in 4 national championship bowl games (winning 1 in 1999) and is undefeated so far this season. Virginia on the other hand has continued their stretch of 7-4, 8-5, 7-5 seasons (first under George Welsh and now under Al Groh). Virginia's best season in that same span was 1998, when they went 9-3 and lost the Peach Bowl to Georgia. Florida St. has made Virginia pay for that game back in 1995 as well. The Cavs have come no closer than 5 points (a 19-14 loss at home in 2003) in the 9 games against the 'Noles since that monumental upset, andFlorida St. has won 4 of the contests by 30 or more points. In the preseason, this looked like a game Florida St. would struggle to win and possibly even lose. However, the 'Noles have proven themselves to be national title contenders while Virginia has yet to prove they are bowl contenders.
Winner: Florida St.
Big East Game: Louisville at West Virginia
The 'Ville is a hard team to get a handle on. In three games at home, they have scored over 60 points and blown out decent BCS teams Oregon St. and North Carolina as well as Florida Atlantic. However, on the road, they have struggled. They scored 31 against against a bad Kentucky team, but only won by 7. In their most recent road game against unknown quantity South Florida, they managed only 14 points and lost by 31. West Virginia is a better team than Kentucky and South Florida, so i foresee more road struggles for the 'Ville this week.
Winner: West Virginia
Big 10 Game: Michigan St. at Ohio St.
This game trumps Penn St. at Michigan and Wisconsin at Minnesota in a loaded Big 10 weekend. Its strength versus strength as the Buckeyes and their stout defense host Sparticus and their high-octane offense. The loser here is out of the Big 10 race and should prepare for a postseason trip to San Antonio, El Paso, or Orlando. Ohio St. has lost only once at home all season (a 2 point loss to Texas). However, Michigan St. is no stranger to hostile environments as they have beaten Notre Dame in South Bend. Michigan St. has not scored less than 31 points this season. If they get to that number, Ohio St. has no chance.
Winner: Michigan St.
Big 12 Game: Colorado at Texas
Very quietly, the Buffs are 4-1, with their only blemish a 23-3 defeat at the hands of The U in the Orange Bowl. Texas on the other hand, is eyeing a possible undefeated season and a shot at the national championship. Texas is better than Miami, and is playing at home. The upset won't happen this week.
Winner: Texas
Pac 10 Game: Southern Cal at Notre Dame
The Trojans have been tested in their last 2 road games against Oregon and Arizona St. Is Notre Dame better thna those 2 squads? On the one hand, the best team they have beaten is either Michigan (3-3) or Purdue (2-3). However, all 4 of their wins have come on the road. Road games are never easy in college football or any sport. We'll find out how good the Irish are after this game. After all the hype and pomp, this game has a lot to live up to. It won't.
Winner: Southern Cal
SEC Game: Florida at LSU
Florida's last road game was a 31-3 whipping at the hands of Alabama. LSU's last home game was an OT choke job against Tennesee. This is easily the hardest game on the docket to prognosticate. I haven't been impressed with LSU's performance against either Mississippi St. or Vandy in their 2 games since the Tennessee debacle. I haven't been impressed with Florida's performance against real NCAA defenses in games against Tennessee and Alabama (19 combined points). In situations like this, take the home team.
Winner: LSU
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
Penn St. at Michigan: Michigan is actually the favorite playing at home against the undefeated Nits. They should be. In their only road game, Penn St. struggled to beat Northwestern. This is a step up in talent.
Wake Forest at Boston College: Surprisingly, my alma mater has won the last 2 games in this contest. Our running game will keep it close, but Boston College will prove too much.
Upset City:
Nebraska at Baylor: The Bears have played extremely well this season under Guy Moriss. Their only loss was an OT defeat at Texas A&M. Nebraska is coming off a tough home loss to Texas Tech, and will get ambushed in Waco.
Kansas St. at Texas Tech: The Red Raiders needed a miracle to get by Nebraska last week in the first tough game they played all year. The Wildcats will get back in the Big 12 North race with a win here.
Enjoy the weekend.
Friday, October 14, 2005
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
College/Pro Weekend Wrap-Up
College: 3-3 record in the Six-Pack this week. I learned a valuable lesson though. Never pick Rutgers. Losing is a part of their idenity. Like William Jennings Bryan.
Winners:
Baylor: Much like Steve Carell, the Baylor Bears ended many years of tantalizing frustration and general ineptness against Iowa St. as they won their first Big 12 road game since the conference was founded. Now standing at 4-1, and having played just one home game, Baylor has a decent shot at making their first bowl trip since 1994.
Penn St.: Showed they can beat a Top-20 team... at home. This week is the real test. In only their second road game the Nits must go to the Big House to face a Michigan team coming off their first loss to Minnesota since 1986.
Northwestern: Dropped 51 points on previously unbeaten Wisconsin. Could the 'spread offense' be this generations version of the option? Remember good teams (Nebraska) used the option to have great seasons, and teams with inferior talent (the service academies) used the option to stay competitive when they were outmanned. Similarly, Southern Cal uses their spread offense to bludgeon opponents with their superior athletes and schools like Utah and Northwestern use the spread to conceal their talent deficiencies.
Losers:
Kevin Smith: The Nebraska defensive linemen intercepted a pass against Texas Tech with 1:30 to go that iced the game. Instead of going down, he proceeded to run with the ball and promptly fumbled it back to the Red Raiders who would go on to score a touchdown with 12 seconds left to win the game. His biggest flop since Jersey Girl.
Arizona St.: The Southern Cal loss was forgivable, but if the Sun Devils want to be a player in the Pac 10 race, they must win their home games.
Travis Bell: The Georgia Tech kicker missed not one, but two short field goals (24 and 27 yards) last Thursday. The Yellow Jackets lost to NC St. 17-14. Maybe Tony Danza has some eligibility left?
NFL: Random Thoughts
1. Vinny Testaverde's return to the Jets played a very negligible role in their win. This is contrary to what Don Banks would have you believe. For starters, the Jets scored all of 14 points on Sunday. So their offensive struggles are definitely not behind them. Couple that with the fact that one of their touchdown drives started at the Tampa Bay 8 yard line after a Ty Law interception return and well, these ain't the Colts by a long shot. The Jets still have a long way to go, especially with Curtis Martin running this season like an exhumed Red Grange. Vinny Testaverde was no quarterback savior at 21, so a revival of Cotton Mather-esque proportions is extremely unlikely at 41.
2. Another New York team changed quarterbacks this weekend. Buffalo replaced J.P. Losman with 'Machine Gun' Kelly Holcomb. On the surface Holcomb had a nice game. 20-26 for 169 yards with 1 touchdown and no interceptions for a QB rating of 106.1. However, he fumbled thrice and the Bills managed only 20 points despite the fact that Dolphins' quarterback Gus Frerotte was treating the football like The Gideons treat copies of the New Testament. Why start Holcomb? What's the best that could happen? Buffalo sneaks into the playoffs with a 9-7 record and gets waxed in the first round. If this happens, you have learned nothing about your 'quarterback of the future'.
Final Thought: Was Green Bay's curb-stomping of New Orleans a glimpse of their potential for the remainder season, or merely a high note in a season of woe? Both sides have a legitimate argument. The optimist sees a 2 point loss to the 2-2 Browns, a 1 point loss to the 4-1 Bucs, and a 3 point loss to the 3-2 Panthers as evidence that the Packers are a few plays from a 4-1 start and control of the NFC North. A pessimist sees the victory over the Saints as a beat down of a nomadic team that even if they were able to play home games, would be at best mediocre. The answer will not be known for sometime, but there is this fact: the Packers at 1-4, are merely 1.5 games out of first place.
Winners:
Baylor: Much like Steve Carell, the Baylor Bears ended many years of tantalizing frustration and general ineptness against Iowa St. as they won their first Big 12 road game since the conference was founded. Now standing at 4-1, and having played just one home game, Baylor has a decent shot at making their first bowl trip since 1994.
Penn St.: Showed they can beat a Top-20 team... at home. This week is the real test. In only their second road game the Nits must go to the Big House to face a Michigan team coming off their first loss to Minnesota since 1986.
Northwestern: Dropped 51 points on previously unbeaten Wisconsin. Could the 'spread offense' be this generations version of the option? Remember good teams (Nebraska) used the option to have great seasons, and teams with inferior talent (the service academies) used the option to stay competitive when they were outmanned. Similarly, Southern Cal uses their spread offense to bludgeon opponents with their superior athletes and schools like Utah and Northwestern use the spread to conceal their talent deficiencies.
Losers:
Kevin Smith: The Nebraska defensive linemen intercepted a pass against Texas Tech with 1:30 to go that iced the game. Instead of going down, he proceeded to run with the ball and promptly fumbled it back to the Red Raiders who would go on to score a touchdown with 12 seconds left to win the game. His biggest flop since Jersey Girl.
Arizona St.: The Southern Cal loss was forgivable, but if the Sun Devils want to be a player in the Pac 10 race, they must win their home games.
Travis Bell: The Georgia Tech kicker missed not one, but two short field goals (24 and 27 yards) last Thursday. The Yellow Jackets lost to NC St. 17-14. Maybe Tony Danza has some eligibility left?
NFL: Random Thoughts
1. Vinny Testaverde's return to the Jets played a very negligible role in their win. This is contrary to what Don Banks would have you believe. For starters, the Jets scored all of 14 points on Sunday. So their offensive struggles are definitely not behind them. Couple that with the fact that one of their touchdown drives started at the Tampa Bay 8 yard line after a Ty Law interception return and well, these ain't the Colts by a long shot. The Jets still have a long way to go, especially with Curtis Martin running this season like an exhumed Red Grange. Vinny Testaverde was no quarterback savior at 21, so a revival of Cotton Mather-esque proportions is extremely unlikely at 41.
2. Another New York team changed quarterbacks this weekend. Buffalo replaced J.P. Losman with 'Machine Gun' Kelly Holcomb. On the surface Holcomb had a nice game. 20-26 for 169 yards with 1 touchdown and no interceptions for a QB rating of 106.1. However, he fumbled thrice and the Bills managed only 20 points despite the fact that Dolphins' quarterback Gus Frerotte was treating the football like The Gideons treat copies of the New Testament. Why start Holcomb? What's the best that could happen? Buffalo sneaks into the playoffs with a 9-7 record and gets waxed in the first round. If this happens, you have learned nothing about your 'quarterback of the future'.
Final Thought: Was Green Bay's curb-stomping of New Orleans a glimpse of their potential for the remainder season, or merely a high note in a season of woe? Both sides have a legitimate argument. The optimist sees a 2 point loss to the 2-2 Browns, a 1 point loss to the 4-1 Bucs, and a 3 point loss to the 3-2 Panthers as evidence that the Packers are a few plays from a 4-1 start and control of the NFC North. A pessimist sees the victory over the Saints as a beat down of a nomadic team that even if they were able to play home games, would be at best mediocre. The answer will not be known for sometime, but there is this fact: the Packers at 1-4, are merely 1.5 games out of first place.
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
Nuthin' But a B Thang
I'm too lazy to write a post previewing the ALCS. But I will ask the one question that will determine this series.
Who is Dr. Dre rooting for?
Back in Nineteen Naughty Three, Dre was repping the South Side Sluggers. I hear he was a huge Ron Karkovice fan. Since then though, hes's been low key with the Chi Sox gear. I bet he still has some Sox digs though. What, you think he sold em' all? Have 12 years and the relative success of all 5 California baseball teams shifted his allegiances back to his home state? Only time will tell. Stay tuned 'til the next episode.
Who is Dr. Dre rooting for?
Back in Nineteen Naughty Three, Dre was repping the South Side Sluggers. I hear he was a huge Ron Karkovice fan. Since then though, hes's been low key with the Chi Sox gear. I bet he still has some Sox digs though. What, you think he sold em' all? Have 12 years and the relative success of all 5 California baseball teams shifted his allegiances back to his home state? Only time will tell. Stay tuned 'til the next episode.
Monday, October 10, 2005
Blog Poll Ballot Week 7
1. Southern Cal (5-0)-- Let Arizona hang around, but took care of business. Now on to a week of hype leading up the Notre Dame game. (LW 1)
2. Texas (5-0)-- Beat Oklahoma rather handily. Still not even half-way to an undefeated season.
3. Virginia Tech (6-0)-- Now the schedule gets tough. We'll see if they can avoid the second-half swoons that plagued the 2001-03 VT teams. (LW 3)
4. Alabama (5-0)-- Maybe Dennis 'Century 21' Franchione's departure wasn't all that bad. (LW 5)
5. Florida St. (5-0)-- 4 road contests in their final 6 games. (LW 6)
6. Georgia (5-0)-- Heading towards an SEC title game showdown with 'Bama? (LW 8)
7. Miami (4-1)-- The Colorado win is looking better and better. (LW 7)
8. Penn St. (6-0)-- Still have only played one road game, and it was a struggle at Northwestern. (LW 19)
9. Notre Dame (4-1)-- Their 4 wins (Pitt, Michigan, Washington, and Purdue) don't look that great. But, they were all on the road. (LW 10)
10. UCLA (5-0)-- Dreams of playing a bowl game in their back yard. (LW 17)
11. Florida (5-1)-- Must beat LSU to keep BCS hopes alive. (LW 12)
12. Michigan St. (4-1)-- Must travel to the wounded Buckeyes this week. (LW 14)
13. Cal (5-1)-- The fake punt by UCLA in the 4th was a bold call that turned momentum 180 degrees. (LW 9)
14. Ohio St. (3-2)-- Defense still top notch, but where is the offensive explosion they demonstrated at the end of last season? (LW 4)
15. Texas Tech (5-0)-- The win should not overshadow the fact that they blew a 21-0 lead to Nebraska and should have lost if not for one of the flukiest plays in NCAA history. (LW 16)
16. Boston College (5-1)-- Welcome to the ACC's upper tier. (LW 18)
17. Auburn (4-1)-- Still hanging around. (LW 21)
18. Oregon (5-1)-- Big road win at Arizona St. (LW 24)
19. Colorado (4-1)-- Maybe the class of the Big 12 North? (LW NR)
20. Louisiana St. (3-1)-- Struggled for 3 quarters at Vandy. (LW 22)
21. Tennessee (3-2)-- If not for the 2nd half against LSU, would be 1-3 in the SEC aka Gamecock territory. (LW 13)
22. Wisconsin (5-1)-- The schedule was set up nicely as they avoided Ohio St. and Michigan St. (LW 15)
23. Nebraska (4-1)-- Can't drop them after the Texas Tech game. (LW 23)
24. West Virginia (5-1)-- Somebody from the Big East... (LW NR)
25. Louisville (4-1)-- ... has to be ranked. (LW NR)
Creeping around:
Baylor(4-1): Host Nebraska this week.
Arizona St. (3-3): Need to win a game sometime.
Fresno St. (3-1): On to the WAC schedule.
Maryland (4-2): Is your refrigerator running?
Iowa (4-2): Another late-season surge?
2. Texas (5-0)-- Beat Oklahoma rather handily. Still not even half-way to an undefeated season.
3. Virginia Tech (6-0)-- Now the schedule gets tough. We'll see if they can avoid the second-half swoons that plagued the 2001-03 VT teams. (LW 3)
4. Alabama (5-0)-- Maybe Dennis 'Century 21' Franchione's departure wasn't all that bad. (LW 5)
5. Florida St. (5-0)-- 4 road contests in their final 6 games. (LW 6)
6. Georgia (5-0)-- Heading towards an SEC title game showdown with 'Bama? (LW 8)
7. Miami (4-1)-- The Colorado win is looking better and better. (LW 7)
8. Penn St. (6-0)-- Still have only played one road game, and it was a struggle at Northwestern. (LW 19)
9. Notre Dame (4-1)-- Their 4 wins (Pitt, Michigan, Washington, and Purdue) don't look that great. But, they were all on the road. (LW 10)
10. UCLA (5-0)-- Dreams of playing a bowl game in their back yard. (LW 17)
11. Florida (5-1)-- Must beat LSU to keep BCS hopes alive. (LW 12)
12. Michigan St. (4-1)-- Must travel to the wounded Buckeyes this week. (LW 14)
13. Cal (5-1)-- The fake punt by UCLA in the 4th was a bold call that turned momentum 180 degrees. (LW 9)
14. Ohio St. (3-2)-- Defense still top notch, but where is the offensive explosion they demonstrated at the end of last season? (LW 4)
15. Texas Tech (5-0)-- The win should not overshadow the fact that they blew a 21-0 lead to Nebraska and should have lost if not for one of the flukiest plays in NCAA history. (LW 16)
16. Boston College (5-1)-- Welcome to the ACC's upper tier. (LW 18)
17. Auburn (4-1)-- Still hanging around. (LW 21)
18. Oregon (5-1)-- Big road win at Arizona St. (LW 24)
19. Colorado (4-1)-- Maybe the class of the Big 12 North? (LW NR)
20. Louisiana St. (3-1)-- Struggled for 3 quarters at Vandy. (LW 22)
21. Tennessee (3-2)-- If not for the 2nd half against LSU, would be 1-3 in the SEC aka Gamecock territory. (LW 13)
22. Wisconsin (5-1)-- The schedule was set up nicely as they avoided Ohio St. and Michigan St. (LW 15)
23. Nebraska (4-1)-- Can't drop them after the Texas Tech game. (LW 23)
24. West Virginia (5-1)-- Somebody from the Big East... (LW NR)
25. Louisville (4-1)-- ... has to be ranked. (LW NR)
Creeping around:
Baylor(4-1): Host Nebraska this week.
Arizona St. (3-3): Need to win a game sometime.
Fresno St. (3-1): On to the WAC schedule.
Maryland (4-2): Is your refrigerator running?
Iowa (4-2): Another late-season surge?
Sunday, October 09, 2005
NFL Week Five Pigskin Pickin'
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 35-24
Chicago at Cleveland: Can Kyle Orton win on the road against an improving Browns team? No way.
Winner: Cleveland
New Orleans at Green Bay: The Pack gets off the sneid.
Winner: Green Bay
Tampa Bay at New York Jets: Tampa is 4-0, but their opponents are a combined 3-12. Vinny wins his homecoming game with the Jets.
Winner: New York
Seattle at St. Louis: Time for Seattle to start playing like the Super Bowl contender they are.
Winner: Seattle
New England at Atlanta
Winner: New England
Miami at Buffalo
Winner: Buffalo
Baltimore at Detroit
Winner: Detroit
Tennessee at Houston: If two nancy boys get in a fight, one of them still has to win.
Winner: Tennessee
Indianapolis at San Francisco
Winner: Indianapolis
Carolina at Arizona: The Panthers are coming off a Monday night game and now must travel cross-country to play Arizona in the desert. I have a bad feeling about this.
Winner: Arizona
Philadelphia at Dallas
Winner: Philadelphia
Washington at Denver: The masquerade ends this week for the 'Skins.
Winner: Denver
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: Cincinnati is playoff-bound, but their opponents are a combined 3-10. They face the best team on their schedule so far in a road game at night. The Jaguars handle their business at home.
Winner: Jacksonville
Pittsburgh at San Diego
Winner: San Diego
Overall: 35-24
Chicago at Cleveland: Can Kyle Orton win on the road against an improving Browns team? No way.
Winner: Cleveland
New Orleans at Green Bay: The Pack gets off the sneid.
Winner: Green Bay
Tampa Bay at New York Jets: Tampa is 4-0, but their opponents are a combined 3-12. Vinny wins his homecoming game with the Jets.
Winner: New York
Seattle at St. Louis: Time for Seattle to start playing like the Super Bowl contender they are.
Winner: Seattle
New England at Atlanta
Winner: New England
Miami at Buffalo
Winner: Buffalo
Baltimore at Detroit
Winner: Detroit
Tennessee at Houston: If two nancy boys get in a fight, one of them still has to win.
Winner: Tennessee
Indianapolis at San Francisco
Winner: Indianapolis
Carolina at Arizona: The Panthers are coming off a Monday night game and now must travel cross-country to play Arizona in the desert. I have a bad feeling about this.
Winner: Arizona
Philadelphia at Dallas
Winner: Philadelphia
Washington at Denver: The masquerade ends this week for the 'Skins.
Winner: Denver
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: Cincinnati is playoff-bound, but their opponents are a combined 3-10. They face the best team on their schedule so far in a road game at night. The Jaguars handle their business at home.
Winner: Jacksonville
Pittsburgh at San Diego
Winner: San Diego
Friday, October 07, 2005
College Weekend Preview
Weekend Six-Pack:
ACC Game: Virginia at Boston College
Al Groh's boys got exposed as pretenders last week against Maryland. With all the great NFL-caliber talent he has brought in since his arrival prior to the 2001 season, one would think they would be an upper-echelon ACC team by now. As it is, in road games against winning teams under Groh (including last weeks loss) the Cavaliers are 3-13. Those wins came against Clemson (7-5) in 2001, Wake Forest (7-6) in 2002, and Georgia Tech (7-5) in 2004. As the records indicate, those were winning teams, but they were hardly dominant. Expect more of the same from the 'Hoos this weekend in Chesnut Hill. Boston College is not a great team, but they are well coached and play well at home. The Eagles DE Mathias Kiwanuka will spend so much time in the UVA backfield that he may have to pay property taxes.
Winner: Boston College
Big East Game: West Virginia at Rutgers
Rutgers is in position to take early control of the Big East race. I'll give you a moment to regain consciousness after reading that statement. This is both a testament to how far Rutgers has come and how far the Big East has fallen. If not for an Illini comeback in Champaign, the Scarlet Knights would be unbeaten heading into this game. As it is, they are 3-1 and in good position for their first bowl bid since 1978. West Virginia is coming off a home loss to Virginia Tech. The Mountaineers have been very inconsistent. They beat East Carolina (1-3) by only 5 points at home, but won by 12 at Maryland (3-2). Their offense is still a work in progress, so it will be up to the defense to win this game. Rutgers offense has come out strong in the early going, scoring 30 points or more in 3 of 4 games. Rutgers offense will prove too much for the Mountaineers and the Scarlet Knights will improve to 2-0 in the Big East.
Winner: Rutgers
Big 10 Game: Ohio St. at Penn St.
There is a buzz again in Happy Valley as the Nits are off to their best start since 1999. However, their Rose Bowl dreams will end on Saturday afternoon. Even though the offense put up 44 points against Minnesota, the passing game is still not up to par. Michael Robinson completed only 13 of 32 passes for 175 yards against the Gophers. He did not throw any interceptions, but that completion percentage is terrible. He did most of his damage on the ground running for 112 yards on 18 attempts. The Buckeyes with their talented linebackers will not let Robinson beat them with his legs. Penn St. will have to throw to win the game, and they won't be able to. Ohio St. held Vince Young of Texas to 18 completions in 29 attempts for 270 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He also only rushed for 76 yards on 20 carries (3.6 average) against the Buckeye defense. To borrow a line from Lloyd Benson, 'I've watched Vince Young. I've rooted for Vince Young. And you sir, are no Vince Young.' Ohio St. will win rather easily, with only Tressel's conservative nature (field goals instead of touchdowns) holding down the final margin.
Winner: Ohio St.
Big 12 Game: Texas vs. Oklahoma at Dallas
Can Texas and Mack Brown exorcise their demons and take out Stoops and the Sooners? Oklahoma's offense has been rounding into fine form in their last two games, but the key to their 5 consecutive victories in this series has been their defense. Game by game, Oklahoma has held Texas to 14, 3, 24, 13, and 0 points. Even in games where their offense has struggled (in 2002 they won 14-3 with one score being a defensive touchdown and last season they won 12-0) the defense has been there to bail them out. That won't be the case this year. So far this season, Oklahoma has given up 23.5 points per game. Texas will get at least 30 and win a game in this series for the first time since 1999.
Winner: Texas
Pac 10 Game: California at UCLA
Two undefeated teams battle for what they hope is the Pac 10 silver medal in southern california. UCLA struggled with a bad Washington team at home last week, needing a last minute touchdown to come from behind. Cal has beaten everyone they have played. Unfortunately, their best win is probably over Illinois. The schedule gets tougher starting with this game as they play Oregon St., Washington St., Oregon, and Southern Cal in their next 4 games. In analyzing this game, I'll go with the better coach as my winner. Jeff Tedford trumps Karl Dorrell.
Winner: California
SEC Game: Georgia at Tennessee
With Florida's loss at Alabama last week, Tennessee is right back in the SEC East race. Georgia is undefeated, but hasn't really shown what they can do as two of their primary scalps (Boise St. and South Carolina) have struggled in recent weeks. Tennessee has played about 2 quarters of good football (the second half and OT against LSU) so I'll go with the road dogs.
Winner: Georgia
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
LSU at Vanderbilt: No I don't think Vandy can win, but they will come out inspired with a chance to upset a top 15 team at home. Emotion can only carry you so far, and LSU will pull away in the second half.
North Carolina at Louisville: Very quietly, North Carolina has won two in a row (at NC St. and at home against Utah). They won't win this game, but Louisville is not the juggernaut they seemed to be in the early going.
Upset City:
Minnesota at Michigan: Michigan comes out flat after their big road win over Sparticus and falls at home to the Gophers.
Texas Tech at Nebraska: Nebraska remembers the horror last season when the Red Raiders hung 70 on them, Nebraska's offense has been pretty horrible so far, but their defense has been superb. Texas Tech has beaten no one of note yet, and that will continue as Nebraska extracts some revenge for last season's debacle.
Enjoy the weekend.
ACC Game: Virginia at Boston College
Al Groh's boys got exposed as pretenders last week against Maryland. With all the great NFL-caliber talent he has brought in since his arrival prior to the 2001 season, one would think they would be an upper-echelon ACC team by now. As it is, in road games against winning teams under Groh (including last weeks loss) the Cavaliers are 3-13. Those wins came against Clemson (7-5) in 2001, Wake Forest (7-6) in 2002, and Georgia Tech (7-5) in 2004. As the records indicate, those were winning teams, but they were hardly dominant. Expect more of the same from the 'Hoos this weekend in Chesnut Hill. Boston College is not a great team, but they are well coached and play well at home. The Eagles DE Mathias Kiwanuka will spend so much time in the UVA backfield that he may have to pay property taxes.
Winner: Boston College
Big East Game: West Virginia at Rutgers
Rutgers is in position to take early control of the Big East race. I'll give you a moment to regain consciousness after reading that statement. This is both a testament to how far Rutgers has come and how far the Big East has fallen. If not for an Illini comeback in Champaign, the Scarlet Knights would be unbeaten heading into this game. As it is, they are 3-1 and in good position for their first bowl bid since 1978. West Virginia is coming off a home loss to Virginia Tech. The Mountaineers have been very inconsistent. They beat East Carolina (1-3) by only 5 points at home, but won by 12 at Maryland (3-2). Their offense is still a work in progress, so it will be up to the defense to win this game. Rutgers offense has come out strong in the early going, scoring 30 points or more in 3 of 4 games. Rutgers offense will prove too much for the Mountaineers and the Scarlet Knights will improve to 2-0 in the Big East.
Winner: Rutgers
Big 10 Game: Ohio St. at Penn St.
There is a buzz again in Happy Valley as the Nits are off to their best start since 1999. However, their Rose Bowl dreams will end on Saturday afternoon. Even though the offense put up 44 points against Minnesota, the passing game is still not up to par. Michael Robinson completed only 13 of 32 passes for 175 yards against the Gophers. He did not throw any interceptions, but that completion percentage is terrible. He did most of his damage on the ground running for 112 yards on 18 attempts. The Buckeyes with their talented linebackers will not let Robinson beat them with his legs. Penn St. will have to throw to win the game, and they won't be able to. Ohio St. held Vince Young of Texas to 18 completions in 29 attempts for 270 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He also only rushed for 76 yards on 20 carries (3.6 average) against the Buckeye defense. To borrow a line from Lloyd Benson, 'I've watched Vince Young. I've rooted for Vince Young. And you sir, are no Vince Young.' Ohio St. will win rather easily, with only Tressel's conservative nature (field goals instead of touchdowns) holding down the final margin.
Winner: Ohio St.
Big 12 Game: Texas vs. Oklahoma at Dallas
Can Texas and Mack Brown exorcise their demons and take out Stoops and the Sooners? Oklahoma's offense has been rounding into fine form in their last two games, but the key to their 5 consecutive victories in this series has been their defense. Game by game, Oklahoma has held Texas to 14, 3, 24, 13, and 0 points. Even in games where their offense has struggled (in 2002 they won 14-3 with one score being a defensive touchdown and last season they won 12-0) the defense has been there to bail them out. That won't be the case this year. So far this season, Oklahoma has given up 23.5 points per game. Texas will get at least 30 and win a game in this series for the first time since 1999.
Winner: Texas
Pac 10 Game: California at UCLA
Two undefeated teams battle for what they hope is the Pac 10 silver medal in southern california. UCLA struggled with a bad Washington team at home last week, needing a last minute touchdown to come from behind. Cal has beaten everyone they have played. Unfortunately, their best win is probably over Illinois. The schedule gets tougher starting with this game as they play Oregon St., Washington St., Oregon, and Southern Cal in their next 4 games. In analyzing this game, I'll go with the better coach as my winner. Jeff Tedford trumps Karl Dorrell.
Winner: California
SEC Game: Georgia at Tennessee
With Florida's loss at Alabama last week, Tennessee is right back in the SEC East race. Georgia is undefeated, but hasn't really shown what they can do as two of their primary scalps (Boise St. and South Carolina) have struggled in recent weeks. Tennessee has played about 2 quarters of good football (the second half and OT against LSU) so I'll go with the road dogs.
Winner: Georgia
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
LSU at Vanderbilt: No I don't think Vandy can win, but they will come out inspired with a chance to upset a top 15 team at home. Emotion can only carry you so far, and LSU will pull away in the second half.
North Carolina at Louisville: Very quietly, North Carolina has won two in a row (at NC St. and at home against Utah). They won't win this game, but Louisville is not the juggernaut they seemed to be in the early going.
Upset City:
Minnesota at Michigan: Michigan comes out flat after their big road win over Sparticus and falls at home to the Gophers.
Texas Tech at Nebraska: Nebraska remembers the horror last season when the Red Raiders hung 70 on them, Nebraska's offense has been pretty horrible so far, but their defense has been superb. Texas Tech has beaten no one of note yet, and that will continue as Nebraska extracts some revenge for last season's debacle.
Enjoy the weekend.
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
College/Pro Weekend Wrap-Up
College: Another 4-2 week in picking games bringing me to 18-12 on the year.
Winners:
Rutgers: Nearly blew a 27 point lead against Pitt on Friday but held on for a 3-1 start. If not for an overtime loss to Illinois in the first game, the Knights would be 4-0. As it is, they are in position for their first bowl trip since 1978. They face West Virginia at home this week in a game with big (relatively) conference championship implications.
Penn St.: Joe Pa's boys are 5-0 for the first time this century.
Notre Dame: Win moved the Irish to 4-0 on the road with an average margin of victory of 17 points in those games.
Losers:
Big East: The Big East has a seat reserved in this section. South Florida, Syracuse, and West Virginia lost to ACC foes by a combined score of 38 to 99.
Vanderbilt: Missed a golden opportunity to start 5-0 by losing at home to previously winless Middle Tennessee St. on a blocked field goal
Minnesota: Same ol' rodents away from home.
NFL: This weeks NFL section will focus on my observations from the Panthers first 4 games.
1. Let's face facts, the Panthers beat a bad Packers team at home on Monday night by 3 points in a game they controlled from the outset. The Packers lost about 300 guys to injuries during the game including starting running back Ahman Green and starting tackle Chad Clifton. Thank goodness the Panthers did hold on lest I have to commit hara-kiri.
2. Through 4 games the Panthers have allowed 96 points. Only the Mike Tice coached Vikings, every NFC West team except Seattle, and the New York Giants have allowed more in the NFC. Whatever happened to John Fox coached teams being strong in the running game (more on this later) and on defense? Through 4 games, the Panthers have 3 sacks. Whatever happened to the vaunted front four? Sure Kris Jenkins is out, but he is being replaced. The Panthers are not lining up with 10 guys. After the initial drive where Mike Rucker sacked Favre and forced a fumble that was subsequently recovered by Carolina, the Panthers were hardly ever in the Packers backfield for the rest of the game. To their credit, the defense has been able to stop the run, but even when Carolina knew a pass play was coming (every play of the 4th quarter), they were not able to generate a consistent pass rush. Perhaps the Teal Curtain should be renamed the Run-of-the-Mill Curtain.
3. The addition of guard Mike Wahle in the offseason along with the continued development of tackle Jordan Gross was supposed to improve the Panthers running game. Through 4 games the Panthers boast a rushing average of 3.3 yards per attempt good for 25th in the league. The line has opened very few holes for the decrepit Stephen Davis and the ever-injured Deshaun Foster. Some may point to Carolina's 6 rushing touchdowns as evidence that the running game is working. However, of the 6 rushing touchdowns (all scored by Stephen Davis) 5 have been from 1 yard out. Any NFL running back with a warm body will score from 1 yard out most of the time.
4. Jake Delhomme is a fumbler. He always has been. His first year in Carolina he fumbled 15 times. Last season he fumbled 12 times. So far this season he has fumbled 3 times. He has played in 36 games for Carolina and he has fumbled 30 times for an average of .83 per game. To a Panthers fan it should be as expected as a Todd Steusie false start. Whether it is a result of Jake not feeling the rush, holding the ball too long, not holding the ball correctly or some combination of the above reasons, I do not know. However, what I do know is that a Delhomme fumble this week against Arizona is as inevitable as the swear words that will flow from my mouth when it happens (ryhmes with Duckett).
5. That's all i got right now. Oh well, I guess it beats the heck out of the George Seifert era.
Winners:
Rutgers: Nearly blew a 27 point lead against Pitt on Friday but held on for a 3-1 start. If not for an overtime loss to Illinois in the first game, the Knights would be 4-0. As it is, they are in position for their first bowl trip since 1978. They face West Virginia at home this week in a game with big (relatively) conference championship implications.
Penn St.: Joe Pa's boys are 5-0 for the first time this century.
Notre Dame: Win moved the Irish to 4-0 on the road with an average margin of victory of 17 points in those games.
Losers:
Big East: The Big East has a seat reserved in this section. South Florida, Syracuse, and West Virginia lost to ACC foes by a combined score of 38 to 99.
Vanderbilt: Missed a golden opportunity to start 5-0 by losing at home to previously winless Middle Tennessee St. on a blocked field goal
Minnesota: Same ol' rodents away from home.
NFL: This weeks NFL section will focus on my observations from the Panthers first 4 games.
1. Let's face facts, the Panthers beat a bad Packers team at home on Monday night by 3 points in a game they controlled from the outset. The Packers lost about 300 guys to injuries during the game including starting running back Ahman Green and starting tackle Chad Clifton. Thank goodness the Panthers did hold on lest I have to commit hara-kiri.
2. Through 4 games the Panthers have allowed 96 points. Only the Mike Tice coached Vikings, every NFC West team except Seattle, and the New York Giants have allowed more in the NFC. Whatever happened to John Fox coached teams being strong in the running game (more on this later) and on defense? Through 4 games, the Panthers have 3 sacks. Whatever happened to the vaunted front four? Sure Kris Jenkins is out, but he is being replaced. The Panthers are not lining up with 10 guys. After the initial drive where Mike Rucker sacked Favre and forced a fumble that was subsequently recovered by Carolina, the Panthers were hardly ever in the Packers backfield for the rest of the game. To their credit, the defense has been able to stop the run, but even when Carolina knew a pass play was coming (every play of the 4th quarter), they were not able to generate a consistent pass rush. Perhaps the Teal Curtain should be renamed the Run-of-the-Mill Curtain.
3. The addition of guard Mike Wahle in the offseason along with the continued development of tackle Jordan Gross was supposed to improve the Panthers running game. Through 4 games the Panthers boast a rushing average of 3.3 yards per attempt good for 25th in the league. The line has opened very few holes for the decrepit Stephen Davis and the ever-injured Deshaun Foster. Some may point to Carolina's 6 rushing touchdowns as evidence that the running game is working. However, of the 6 rushing touchdowns (all scored by Stephen Davis) 5 have been from 1 yard out. Any NFL running back with a warm body will score from 1 yard out most of the time.
4. Jake Delhomme is a fumbler. He always has been. His first year in Carolina he fumbled 15 times. Last season he fumbled 12 times. So far this season he has fumbled 3 times. He has played in 36 games for Carolina and he has fumbled 30 times for an average of .83 per game. To a Panthers fan it should be as expected as a Todd Steusie false start. Whether it is a result of Jake not feeling the rush, holding the ball too long, not holding the ball correctly or some combination of the above reasons, I do not know. However, what I do know is that a Delhomme fumble this week against Arizona is as inevitable as the swear words that will flow from my mouth when it happens (ryhmes with Duckett).
5. That's all i got right now. Oh well, I guess it beats the heck out of the George Seifert era.
Quick Baseball Playoff Thoughts
The baseball playoffs are here. October sure got here fast. Here are my thoughts on the Division Series. First off, in the American League, the best team in the league did not make the playoffs. Using run differential and the pythagorean record, the best team in the American League was the Cleveland Indians. While this fact bodes well for a young team going forward, it does nothing for them now.
American League:
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox:
I can say without a doubt that the Sox will win. The Red Sox score runs, and the White Sox prevent them. However, for all the talk of Chicago playing 'small ball' and 'smart ball' they actually outhomered the Red Sox 200-199. Chicago's starting pitchers all had good seasons, but they don't strike a lot of people out. If you don't miss bats against the Red Sox you are in trouble.
Prediction: Red Sox in 4
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels:
Don't confuse these Angels with the 2002 version. That team could put runs on the board and this team struggles to score. However, the pitching is on par with the 2002 version. The Yanks do not struggle to score, but did have trouble preventing runs. I'm not buying Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon continuing their hot streak into the playoffs. These are two average pitchers who got hot once they arrived in New York. Scioscia will use his bench and bullpen to take advantage of the Yanks weaknesses.
Prediction: Angels in 4
National League:
Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves:
Houston's Big 3 of Clemens, Pettite, and Oswalt pose a significant challenge to this young Braves team. Surprisingly Atlanta finished 4th in the National League in runs scored so these are not the same Braves teams of the past that struggled to score (they finished 5th in runs allowed so they are balanced). The Braves haven't won a Division Series since 2001, losing 3 in a row. The laws of probability say they are due.
Prediction: Atlanta in 5
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals:
The baseball playoffs are a crap shoot. You play 162 games, only to then try your luck by rolling the dice in the postseason. In a 162 game season, having a bad 5 game stretch is not that unusual. However, if you have a bad 5 game stretch at the end of the season, you go home. St. Louis will have a tougher time than expected, but will advance.
Prediction: St. Louis in 5
American League:
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox:
I can say without a doubt that the Sox will win. The Red Sox score runs, and the White Sox prevent them. However, for all the talk of Chicago playing 'small ball' and 'smart ball' they actually outhomered the Red Sox 200-199. Chicago's starting pitchers all had good seasons, but they don't strike a lot of people out. If you don't miss bats against the Red Sox you are in trouble.
Prediction: Red Sox in 4
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels:
Don't confuse these Angels with the 2002 version. That team could put runs on the board and this team struggles to score. However, the pitching is on par with the 2002 version. The Yanks do not struggle to score, but did have trouble preventing runs. I'm not buying Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon continuing their hot streak into the playoffs. These are two average pitchers who got hot once they arrived in New York. Scioscia will use his bench and bullpen to take advantage of the Yanks weaknesses.
Prediction: Angels in 4
National League:
Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves:
Houston's Big 3 of Clemens, Pettite, and Oswalt pose a significant challenge to this young Braves team. Surprisingly Atlanta finished 4th in the National League in runs scored so these are not the same Braves teams of the past that struggled to score (they finished 5th in runs allowed so they are balanced). The Braves haven't won a Division Series since 2001, losing 3 in a row. The laws of probability say they are due.
Prediction: Atlanta in 5
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals:
The baseball playoffs are a crap shoot. You play 162 games, only to then try your luck by rolling the dice in the postseason. In a 162 game season, having a bad 5 game stretch is not that unusual. However, if you have a bad 5 game stretch at the end of the season, you go home. St. Louis will have a tougher time than expected, but will advance.
Prediction: St. Louis in 5
Monday, October 03, 2005
Blog Poll Ballot Week 6
1. Southern Cal (4-0)-- Matt Leinart didn't throw a touchdown and they still won on the road after being down 18. (LW 1)
2. Texas (4-0)-- Missouri was never in the game. Can exorcise some demons this weekend. (LW 2)
3. Virginia Tech (5-0)-- Winning in Morgantown is never easy. (LW 3)
4. Ohio St. (3-1)-- Road test at Penn St. this week. (LW 5)
5. Alabama (5-0)-- They seem to play up or down to their competition every week. But spanking Florida warrants the jump. (LW 12)
6. Florida St. (4-0)-- The Orange are not the same team away from that dang ol' dome. (LW 6)
7. Miami (3-1)-- Rounding into fine form. (LW 7)
8. Georgia (4-0)-- Big road game this week at Tennessee. (LW 9)
9. Cal (5-0)-- Shut out lesser Stoops on Saturday. (LW 10)
10. Notre Dame (4-1)-- Offense was really clicking against Purdue. (LW 13)
11. Arizona St. (3-2)-- Can't drop them far after their performance Saturday. Keller threw 5 picks and they only lost by 10. (LW 11)
12. Florida (4-1)-- Meyer's boys held without a touchdown. (LW 4)
13. Tennessee (3-1)-- Handled Mississippi relatively easy. (LW 14)
14. Michigan St. (4-1)-- OT loss in a rivalry game. (LW 8)
15. Wisconsin (5-0)-- Quietly going undefeated. (LW 15)
16. Texas Tech (4-0)-- Struggles to beat Kansas at home. (LW 17)
17. UCLA (4-0)-- Really struggles to beat a bad Washington team. (LW 18)
18. Boston College (4-1)-- Handled their business at home against a bad team. (LW 19)
19. Penn St. (5-0)-- The Gophers away from home are a different team. (LW 25)
20. Georgia Tech (3-1)-- Still here based on the Auburn win. (LW 23)
21. Auburn (4-1)-- Embarrassed the ol' ball coach. (LW 24)
22. Louisiana St. (2-1)-- Good road win in Starkeville. (LW 21)
23. Nebraska (4-0)-- Play a road game. Clap*Clap*Clap*Clap*Clap (LW NR)
24. Oregon (4-1)-- Pac 10 is very deep. (LW NR)
25. Oklahoma (2-2)-- Offense has come around the last 2 games (and just in time). Would have looked better against UCLA if they didn't fumble 7000 times. (LW NR)
Creeping Around:
Texas A&M (3-1): Needed OT, terrible execution by Baylor, and a bad call to beat the Bears at home.
Baylor (3-1): Any redzone productivity and they are 4-0.
Fresno St. (2-1): Waxed Toledo last Tuesday.
Rutgers (3-1): BCS bid?
Colorado (3-1): Ended the Big 12 North's losing skid against the South.
2. Texas (4-0)-- Missouri was never in the game. Can exorcise some demons this weekend. (LW 2)
3. Virginia Tech (5-0)-- Winning in Morgantown is never easy. (LW 3)
4. Ohio St. (3-1)-- Road test at Penn St. this week. (LW 5)
5. Alabama (5-0)-- They seem to play up or down to their competition every week. But spanking Florida warrants the jump. (LW 12)
6. Florida St. (4-0)-- The Orange are not the same team away from that dang ol' dome. (LW 6)
7. Miami (3-1)-- Rounding into fine form. (LW 7)
8. Georgia (4-0)-- Big road game this week at Tennessee. (LW 9)
9. Cal (5-0)-- Shut out lesser Stoops on Saturday. (LW 10)
10. Notre Dame (4-1)-- Offense was really clicking against Purdue. (LW 13)
11. Arizona St. (3-2)-- Can't drop them far after their performance Saturday. Keller threw 5 picks and they only lost by 10. (LW 11)
12. Florida (4-1)-- Meyer's boys held without a touchdown. (LW 4)
13. Tennessee (3-1)-- Handled Mississippi relatively easy. (LW 14)
14. Michigan St. (4-1)-- OT loss in a rivalry game. (LW 8)
15. Wisconsin (5-0)-- Quietly going undefeated. (LW 15)
16. Texas Tech (4-0)-- Struggles to beat Kansas at home. (LW 17)
17. UCLA (4-0)-- Really struggles to beat a bad Washington team. (LW 18)
18. Boston College (4-1)-- Handled their business at home against a bad team. (LW 19)
19. Penn St. (5-0)-- The Gophers away from home are a different team. (LW 25)
20. Georgia Tech (3-1)-- Still here based on the Auburn win. (LW 23)
21. Auburn (4-1)-- Embarrassed the ol' ball coach. (LW 24)
22. Louisiana St. (2-1)-- Good road win in Starkeville. (LW 21)
23. Nebraska (4-0)-- Play a road game. Clap*Clap*Clap*Clap*Clap (LW NR)
24. Oregon (4-1)-- Pac 10 is very deep. (LW NR)
25. Oklahoma (2-2)-- Offense has come around the last 2 games (and just in time). Would have looked better against UCLA if they didn't fumble 7000 times. (LW NR)
Creeping Around:
Texas A&M (3-1): Needed OT, terrible execution by Baylor, and a bad call to beat the Bears at home.
Baylor (3-1): Any redzone productivity and they are 4-0.
Fresno St. (2-1): Waxed Toledo last Tuesday.
Rutgers (3-1): BCS bid?
Colorado (3-1): Ended the Big 12 North's losing skid against the South.
Sunday, October 02, 2005
NFL Week Four Pigskin Pickin'
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 26-19
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Winner: Tampa Bay
Indianapolis at Tennessee: Will the Colts injure another quarterback?
Winner: Indianapolis
San Diego at New England: The last time the Pats lost at home was Week 16 of the 2002 season. 50 Cent had not blown up, Maurice Clarrett was still a 'student', and Matt Leinart was riding the pine in So Cal.
Winner: New England
Seattle at Washngton
Winner: Seattle
Buffalo at New Orleans
Winner: Buffalo
Denver at Jacksonville
Winner: Jacksonville
St. Louis at New York Giants: St. Louis struggles on the road.
Winner: New York Giants
Houston at Cincinnati
Winner: Cincinnati
New York Jets at Baltimore: Brooks Bollinger versus Anthony Wright. Not exactly Graham versus Tittle. I suppose I'll go with the home team.
Winner: Baltimore
Philadelphia at Kansas City: The Chiefs looked bad without Willie Roaf last week. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, McNabb's hurt, and their ace kicker is out, but I'll go with the defending NFC champs.
Winner: Philadelphia
Dallas at Oakland: The Cowboys specialize in playing close games (all 3 decided 4 points or less), and this one will be no different. And they gave up 31 to San Francisco, so I gotta go with Moss and Co.
Winner: Oakland
Minnesota at Atlanta: I'll continue my season-long trend of picking against the Falcons.
Winner: Minnesota
San Francisco at Arizona: If two teams play, and no one watches, does it actually happen?
Winner: Arizona
Green Bay at Carolina
Winner: Carolina
Overall: 26-19
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Winner: Tampa Bay
Indianapolis at Tennessee: Will the Colts injure another quarterback?
Winner: Indianapolis
San Diego at New England: The last time the Pats lost at home was Week 16 of the 2002 season. 50 Cent had not blown up, Maurice Clarrett was still a 'student', and Matt Leinart was riding the pine in So Cal.
Winner: New England
Seattle at Washngton
Winner: Seattle
Buffalo at New Orleans
Winner: Buffalo
Denver at Jacksonville
Winner: Jacksonville
St. Louis at New York Giants: St. Louis struggles on the road.
Winner: New York Giants
Houston at Cincinnati
Winner: Cincinnati
New York Jets at Baltimore: Brooks Bollinger versus Anthony Wright. Not exactly Graham versus Tittle. I suppose I'll go with the home team.
Winner: Baltimore
Philadelphia at Kansas City: The Chiefs looked bad without Willie Roaf last week. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, McNabb's hurt, and their ace kicker is out, but I'll go with the defending NFC champs.
Winner: Philadelphia
Dallas at Oakland: The Cowboys specialize in playing close games (all 3 decided 4 points or less), and this one will be no different. And they gave up 31 to San Francisco, so I gotta go with Moss and Co.
Winner: Oakland
Minnesota at Atlanta: I'll continue my season-long trend of picking against the Falcons.
Winner: Minnesota
San Francisco at Arizona: If two teams play, and no one watches, does it actually happen?
Winner: Arizona
Green Bay at Carolina
Winner: Carolina
Saturday, October 01, 2005
College Weekend Preview
Weekend Six-Pack:
ACC Game: Virginia Tech at West Virginia
An interconference clash between former Big East rivals should make for some entertaining noon-day football. It's a shame this game won't be played at 7:30 or 8 to give the Mountaineer fans time to get all jacked up. Nothing says college football like overturning cars and setting things on fire. But I digress. This is Virginia Tech's first road game since their opener with NC St. Tech struggled in that game winning by only 4 points. That same NC St. team lost at home last week to North Carolina, so maybe Tech's victory isn't all that impressive. However, Tech did dominate a very good Georgia Tech team at home last week. As for the Mountaineers, they are 4-0 with solid road wins at Syracuse and Maryland, a home blowout over Wofford, and a squeaker win at home against East Carolina. I have no doubt Virginia Tech is the better team, but road games are always tough in college football. This will be a game for 4 quarters, but the Hokies will come out on top.
Winner: Virginia Tech
Big East Game: South Florida at Miami
Another intriguing interconference clash between the Big East and ACC. In this case it's the old Big East dynasty against a team hoping to become the new Big East dynasty. South Florida got everyone's attention with their thrashing of Louisville last week, so they definitely won't sneak up on the Canes. In their 3 home games, the Bulls have been an offensive machine scoring 37, 31, and 45 points. But in their lone road contest, they managed only 13. The Miami defense will certainly be much faster than any defense they have faced thus far. However, in regulation games, the Miami offense has only managed 7, 20, and 23 points. Two touchdowns may keep South Florida in this game despite the fact that it is in the Orange Bowl. South Florida keeps it close but falls to the Canes.
Winner: Miami
Big 10 Game: Minnesota at Penn St.
This matchup of undefeated teams takes precedent over the Michigan/Michigan St. affair. Both teams won nailbiters last week as the Gophers defeated Purdue 42-35 in overtime and Joe Pa's boys won at Northwestern on a last second touchdown 34-29. Purdue's win came in the comphy confines of the Metrodome while the Nits won in hostile territory at Northwestern. Or as hostile as a road game at Northwestern can be. Northwestern would not have been in the game if it wasn't for 4! Penn St. turnovers. Although Penn St. quarterback Michael Robinson overcame the turnovers and made several big plays, he still completed less than half his passes (17-36) against a Northwestern defense that was shredded by Arizona St. quarterback Sam Keller (20-31 for 409 yards) the week before. While no one will confuse Minnesota's defense with the Steel Curtain, and despite the fact that the game is on the road, I am going against my better judgement and picking the rodents to take out the Lions on the strength of their running game.
Winner: Minnesota
Big 12 Game: Texas at Missouri
This game had 'trap' written all over it for the Longhorns. Next week is their annual showdown with Oklahoma at the state fair, so they may be looking past a Missouri team that lost to New Mexico. Since quarterback Brad Smith has been at Missouri, the Tigers are 4-11 against teams with winning records. Texas is more than just a team with a winning record, they are championship contenders. Even though Missouri kept things interesting in a 28-20 loss in Austin last season, they won't be able to hang with the Horns. Texas wins in rather easy fashion.
Winner: Texas
Pac 10 Game: Southern Cal at Arizona St.
So much for my prediction of a close game last week. Southern Cal spotted Oregon 13 early points and then scored 45 unanswered to cruise to the win. However, Arizona St. is a much better team than Oregon. If not for 2 fluky special teams' plays against LSU, they would be undefeated. I'll stick with last weeks prediction of a close game that Southern Cal wins.
Winner: Southern Cal
SEC Game: Florida at Alabama
Alabama has been less than impressive in their 3 home games this season winning by an average of only 13 points against teams with a combined record of 2-7. In fact, their only impressive performance was the road victory over South Carolina. Florida on the other hand, has beaten Tennessee, and clobbered 3 patsies. This will be their first road test (last weeks win at Kentucky does not qualify as a 'test'). Alabama will contain Urban Meyer's offense to an extent and Florida will be forced to rely on their defense to win this game. This will be a low-scoring affair reminiscent of Gene Stallings games when he coached the Tide (Riddle left, Riddle right, then take Riddle up the middle). Florida's defense bails out the offense and the Gators improve to 5-0.
Winner: Florida
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
Michigan at Michigan St.: The Wolverines have something to prove in this rivalry game having started the season 2-2, while their neighbors are the toast of the state with a quick 4-0 start highlighted by a win over Notre Dame. I've come around and reserved my seat on Sparticus' band wagon so they better not suffer a letdown this week. This will be a close, heated affair as more rivaly games are, but Sparticus will remain unbeaten.
Indiana at Wisconsin: You'd be forgiven if you didn't know the Hossiers were unbeaten (3-0) as they haven't been relevant in college football since the Taft administration. Wisconsin is also off to an undefeated start, including a minor home upset over Michigan last week (Barry Alvarez's first win over Lloyd Carr). Wisconsin is likely to be looking toward their road showdown with Northwestern next week, and may sleep walk through portions of this game.
Upset City:
Virginia at Maryland: Who knows how good Virginia really is? Their resume is highlighted with wins over Western Michigan, Syracuse, and Duke. The Terps knock them of and Ralph Friedgen gets to enjoy the postgame spread.
LSU at Mississippi St.: Les Miles need only ask Ron Zook if Mississippi St. is dangerous at home. With a short week to prepare, and coming off a crushing defeat at home, the Tigers are ripe for the taking. If I was an LSU fan I would be worried, not just about this game, but about the direction of the program. My mom knows not to call a time out during change of possession because the clock stops.
Enjoy the Weekend.
ACC Game: Virginia Tech at West Virginia
An interconference clash between former Big East rivals should make for some entertaining noon-day football. It's a shame this game won't be played at 7:30 or 8 to give the Mountaineer fans time to get all jacked up. Nothing says college football like overturning cars and setting things on fire. But I digress. This is Virginia Tech's first road game since their opener with NC St. Tech struggled in that game winning by only 4 points. That same NC St. team lost at home last week to North Carolina, so maybe Tech's victory isn't all that impressive. However, Tech did dominate a very good Georgia Tech team at home last week. As for the Mountaineers, they are 4-0 with solid road wins at Syracuse and Maryland, a home blowout over Wofford, and a squeaker win at home against East Carolina. I have no doubt Virginia Tech is the better team, but road games are always tough in college football. This will be a game for 4 quarters, but the Hokies will come out on top.
Winner: Virginia Tech
Big East Game: South Florida at Miami
Another intriguing interconference clash between the Big East and ACC. In this case it's the old Big East dynasty against a team hoping to become the new Big East dynasty. South Florida got everyone's attention with their thrashing of Louisville last week, so they definitely won't sneak up on the Canes. In their 3 home games, the Bulls have been an offensive machine scoring 37, 31, and 45 points. But in their lone road contest, they managed only 13. The Miami defense will certainly be much faster than any defense they have faced thus far. However, in regulation games, the Miami offense has only managed 7, 20, and 23 points. Two touchdowns may keep South Florida in this game despite the fact that it is in the Orange Bowl. South Florida keeps it close but falls to the Canes.
Winner: Miami
Big 10 Game: Minnesota at Penn St.
This matchup of undefeated teams takes precedent over the Michigan/Michigan St. affair. Both teams won nailbiters last week as the Gophers defeated Purdue 42-35 in overtime and Joe Pa's boys won at Northwestern on a last second touchdown 34-29. Purdue's win came in the comphy confines of the Metrodome while the Nits won in hostile territory at Northwestern. Or as hostile as a road game at Northwestern can be. Northwestern would not have been in the game if it wasn't for 4! Penn St. turnovers. Although Penn St. quarterback Michael Robinson overcame the turnovers and made several big plays, he still completed less than half his passes (17-36) against a Northwestern defense that was shredded by Arizona St. quarterback Sam Keller (20-31 for 409 yards) the week before. While no one will confuse Minnesota's defense with the Steel Curtain, and despite the fact that the game is on the road, I am going against my better judgement and picking the rodents to take out the Lions on the strength of their running game.
Winner: Minnesota
Big 12 Game: Texas at Missouri
This game had 'trap' written all over it for the Longhorns. Next week is their annual showdown with Oklahoma at the state fair, so they may be looking past a Missouri team that lost to New Mexico. Since quarterback Brad Smith has been at Missouri, the Tigers are 4-11 against teams with winning records. Texas is more than just a team with a winning record, they are championship contenders. Even though Missouri kept things interesting in a 28-20 loss in Austin last season, they won't be able to hang with the Horns. Texas wins in rather easy fashion.
Winner: Texas
Pac 10 Game: Southern Cal at Arizona St.
So much for my prediction of a close game last week. Southern Cal spotted Oregon 13 early points and then scored 45 unanswered to cruise to the win. However, Arizona St. is a much better team than Oregon. If not for 2 fluky special teams' plays against LSU, they would be undefeated. I'll stick with last weeks prediction of a close game that Southern Cal wins.
Winner: Southern Cal
SEC Game: Florida at Alabama
Alabama has been less than impressive in their 3 home games this season winning by an average of only 13 points against teams with a combined record of 2-7. In fact, their only impressive performance was the road victory over South Carolina. Florida on the other hand, has beaten Tennessee, and clobbered 3 patsies. This will be their first road test (last weeks win at Kentucky does not qualify as a 'test'). Alabama will contain Urban Meyer's offense to an extent and Florida will be forced to rely on their defense to win this game. This will be a low-scoring affair reminiscent of Gene Stallings games when he coached the Tide (Riddle left, Riddle right, then take Riddle up the middle). Florida's defense bails out the offense and the Gators improve to 5-0.
Winner: Florida
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
Michigan at Michigan St.: The Wolverines have something to prove in this rivalry game having started the season 2-2, while their neighbors are the toast of the state with a quick 4-0 start highlighted by a win over Notre Dame. I've come around and reserved my seat on Sparticus' band wagon so they better not suffer a letdown this week. This will be a close, heated affair as more rivaly games are, but Sparticus will remain unbeaten.
Indiana at Wisconsin: You'd be forgiven if you didn't know the Hossiers were unbeaten (3-0) as they haven't been relevant in college football since the Taft administration. Wisconsin is also off to an undefeated start, including a minor home upset over Michigan last week (Barry Alvarez's first win over Lloyd Carr). Wisconsin is likely to be looking toward their road showdown with Northwestern next week, and may sleep walk through portions of this game.
Upset City:
Virginia at Maryland: Who knows how good Virginia really is? Their resume is highlighted with wins over Western Michigan, Syracuse, and Duke. The Terps knock them of and Ralph Friedgen gets to enjoy the postgame spread.
LSU at Mississippi St.: Les Miles need only ask Ron Zook if Mississippi St. is dangerous at home. With a short week to prepare, and coming off a crushing defeat at home, the Tigers are ripe for the taking. If I was an LSU fan I would be worried, not just about this game, but about the direction of the program. My mom knows not to call a time out during change of possession because the clock stops.
Enjoy the Weekend.
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
Blog Poll Ballot Week 5
I recently joined the Blog Poll. This endeavor is simply a mechanism for bloggers to vote on who they think the Top 25 teams are. As the two polls, AP and Coaches, and the new Harris Interactive poll are full of inherent preseason and 'loss' biases, this blog poll is designed to be inteligent voting and commentary on college football. Here is my Week 5 ballot (the first time I voted) along with some commentary on each team.
1. Southern Cal (3-0)--Totally manhandled a good Oregon team on the road after falling behind 13-0.
2. Texas (3-0)--Beat a very good Ohio St. team on the road sandwiched between two glorified exhibitions.
3. Virginia Tech (4-0)--The narrow victory at NC St. doesn't look as good now, but beating Georgia Tech at home by 40+ is impressive.
4. Florida (4-0)--Only one real marquee win (at home versus Tennessee), but I just think they are that good. And they have done nothing that says otherwise.
5. Ohio St. (3-1)--Yes they have 1 loss, but it was to the #2 team. The only issue I have with them is that they haven't played a road game yet.
6. Florida St. (3-0)--It hasn't been pretty, but they own victories over Miami (#7) at home and Boston College (#19) on the road.
7. Miami (2-1)--Two victories over soild bowl-bound squads (Clemson and Colorado), and a narrow loss to a team they outplayed (Florida St.)
8. Michigan St. (4-0)--Offensive machine. Can't afford a loss to rival Michigan this week.
9. Georgia (4-0)--The Boise win does not look all that impressive. Neither does the narrow home win over the ol' ball coach. They did take care of business relatively easy (23-10) in their SEC road opener against Mississippi St. The jury is still out.
10. Cal (4-0)--October 8th against UCLA (#18) is their first real test.
11. Arizona St. (3-1)--Should be undefeated heading into this weekends tilt with Southern Cal.
12. Alabama (4-0)--Maybe the class of the SEC West.
13. Notre Dame (3-1)--No they are not top 10, but winning 3 road games in their first 4 contests is impressive.
14. Tennessee (2-1)--Have played 12 quarters so far this season and have played well in 2 of them. Fortunately for them, those 2 quarters won them the game against LSU.
15. Wisconsin (4-0)--The Bowling Green win has lost some of its luster, but the road win at North Carolina looks a little better. And they beat some team from Ann Arbor.
16. Minnesota (4-0)--Finally won a close Big 10 game after fattening up on non-conference cupcakes. Running game is awesome.
17. Texas Tech (3-0)--Cupcake tour is over. They don't play Missouri this season, but they still have to show me.
18. UCLA (3-0)--A sleeping giant?
19. Boston College (4-0)--If they could do away with the first 10 minutes against Florida St. they would be 4-0.
20. Virginia (3-0)--Not really sure what to make of this team, but the win at Syracuse should not be ignored.
21. Louisiana St. (1-1)--Should be 0-2 if not for two fluky special teams plays against Arizona St.
22. Iowa St. (3-0)--Struggled to beat Army and the victory over Iowa may not be that impressive after all.
23. Georgia Tech (3-1)--Not as bad as the score of the Virginia Tech game would indicate. Still own a road victory over...
24. Auburn (3-1)--Maybe they should have opened with Mississippi St., Ball St., Western Kentucky, and then played Georgia Tech.
25. Penn St. (4-0)--I don't know if they are that good, but the South Florida win is looking better and better.
Creeping Around:
Texas A&M (2-1): Haven't played anyone of note since the Clemson loss, but that will change soon.
South Florida (3-1): Molly-whopped Louisville.
West Virginia (4-0): Big game this week at home against Virginia Tech.
Toledo (3-0): Play Fresno St. in mid-major matchup tonight.
UTEP (3-0): Could conceivably go undefeated.
Vanderbilt (4-0): 4-0 sure looks nice.
Lemme know what you think.
1. Southern Cal (3-0)--Totally manhandled a good Oregon team on the road after falling behind 13-0.
2. Texas (3-0)--Beat a very good Ohio St. team on the road sandwiched between two glorified exhibitions.
3. Virginia Tech (4-0)--The narrow victory at NC St. doesn't look as good now, but beating Georgia Tech at home by 40+ is impressive.
4. Florida (4-0)--Only one real marquee win (at home versus Tennessee), but I just think they are that good. And they have done nothing that says otherwise.
5. Ohio St. (3-1)--Yes they have 1 loss, but it was to the #2 team. The only issue I have with them is that they haven't played a road game yet.
6. Florida St. (3-0)--It hasn't been pretty, but they own victories over Miami (#7) at home and Boston College (#19) on the road.
7. Miami (2-1)--Two victories over soild bowl-bound squads (Clemson and Colorado), and a narrow loss to a team they outplayed (Florida St.)
8. Michigan St. (4-0)--Offensive machine. Can't afford a loss to rival Michigan this week.
9. Georgia (4-0)--The Boise win does not look all that impressive. Neither does the narrow home win over the ol' ball coach. They did take care of business relatively easy (23-10) in their SEC road opener against Mississippi St. The jury is still out.
10. Cal (4-0)--October 8th against UCLA (#18) is their first real test.
11. Arizona St. (3-1)--Should be undefeated heading into this weekends tilt with Southern Cal.
12. Alabama (4-0)--Maybe the class of the SEC West.
13. Notre Dame (3-1)--No they are not top 10, but winning 3 road games in their first 4 contests is impressive.
14. Tennessee (2-1)--Have played 12 quarters so far this season and have played well in 2 of them. Fortunately for them, those 2 quarters won them the game against LSU.
15. Wisconsin (4-0)--The Bowling Green win has lost some of its luster, but the road win at North Carolina looks a little better. And they beat some team from Ann Arbor.
16. Minnesota (4-0)--Finally won a close Big 10 game after fattening up on non-conference cupcakes. Running game is awesome.
17. Texas Tech (3-0)--Cupcake tour is over. They don't play Missouri this season, but they still have to show me.
18. UCLA (3-0)--A sleeping giant?
19. Boston College (4-0)--If they could do away with the first 10 minutes against Florida St. they would be 4-0.
20. Virginia (3-0)--Not really sure what to make of this team, but the win at Syracuse should not be ignored.
21. Louisiana St. (1-1)--Should be 0-2 if not for two fluky special teams plays against Arizona St.
22. Iowa St. (3-0)--Struggled to beat Army and the victory over Iowa may not be that impressive after all.
23. Georgia Tech (3-1)--Not as bad as the score of the Virginia Tech game would indicate. Still own a road victory over...
24. Auburn (3-1)--Maybe they should have opened with Mississippi St., Ball St., Western Kentucky, and then played Georgia Tech.
25. Penn St. (4-0)--I don't know if they are that good, but the South Florida win is looking better and better.
Creeping Around:
Texas A&M (2-1): Haven't played anyone of note since the Clemson loss, but that will change soon.
South Florida (3-1): Molly-whopped Louisville.
West Virginia (4-0): Big game this week at home against Virginia Tech.
Toledo (3-0): Play Fresno St. in mid-major matchup tonight.
UTEP (3-0): Could conceivably go undefeated.
Vanderbilt (4-0): 4-0 sure looks nice.
Lemme know what you think.
College/Pro Weekend Wrap-Up
College: Another 4-2 record in the Six-Pack. I was totally wrong about Sparticus falling to the fighting Zooks from Illinois. Maybe this is a special year in East Lansing.
Winners:
Michigan St.: Went into the Illini's house and smacked em' around. Then for good measure pissed on their rug.
Southern Cal: Sleepwalked through the first half and were only down 3 points. 2 minutes into the 2nd half they were on top and never looked back.
Tennessee: Gotta give credit where credit is due. You could practically see Les Miles' sphincter tightening on every cutaway as Tennessee made their comeback in the 2nd half.
Losers:
Big East: Will this years BCS bid be just as embarassing as last years? Seriously who wins the Big East now? That South Florida juggernaut lost to a shaky Penn St. team. The Big East's only undefeated team, West Virginia, beat East Carolina by 5 this week and face Virginia Tech on Saturday. Connecticut has lost to Georgia Tech. Rutgers has lost to Illinois. Pitt has lost to everyone.
New Mexico St.: Normally I don't take shots at an 0-4 mid-major program, but what I saw Friday night was ridiculous. New Mexico St. is playing Cal at home. Cal is lined up for a 40 yard field goal at the end of the first half. Cal is up 27-10. New Mexico St. coach Hal Mumme proceeds to call all 3 of his timeouts to ice the kicker. I have no problem with this. Good strategy as there are only 15 seconds left on the clock so it is unlikely they can mount a scoring drive whether or not Cal makes the field goal. Cal misses the kick and the camera cuts to Mumme on the sideline celebrating like he had just won the Powerball Jackpot. New Mexico St. went on to lose the game 41-13. I suppose this award should have just gone to the distinguished Mr. Mumme. Maybe Hal can turn this program around and have them competing for WAC championships. But when he leaves, will the WAC titles be worth the inevitable NCAA violations he leaves in his wake?
NFL: Random Thoughts
1. It's still early, but this years Colts team is looking a lot like Tony Dungy's Tampa Bay squads. Very good defense and a struggling offense. Of course, this could also be a function of the teams they have played. Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Cleveland are not offensive powerhouses by any means.
2. Instead of trying to gut out a heroic performance on Sunday, David Akers should have told the Eagles coaching staff earlier in the week that he was not able to play. They could have signed another kicker and added him to the roster. Instead, the Eagles suffered short kickoffs, missed extra points, and narrow short field goals in their squeaker victory over the Raiders.
Final Thought: LT throws a pretty good spiral.
Winners:
Michigan St.: Went into the Illini's house and smacked em' around. Then for good measure pissed on their rug.
Southern Cal: Sleepwalked through the first half and were only down 3 points. 2 minutes into the 2nd half they were on top and never looked back.
Tennessee: Gotta give credit where credit is due. You could practically see Les Miles' sphincter tightening on every cutaway as Tennessee made their comeback in the 2nd half.
Losers:
Big East: Will this years BCS bid be just as embarassing as last years? Seriously who wins the Big East now? That South Florida juggernaut lost to a shaky Penn St. team. The Big East's only undefeated team, West Virginia, beat East Carolina by 5 this week and face Virginia Tech on Saturday. Connecticut has lost to Georgia Tech. Rutgers has lost to Illinois. Pitt has lost to everyone.
New Mexico St.: Normally I don't take shots at an 0-4 mid-major program, but what I saw Friday night was ridiculous. New Mexico St. is playing Cal at home. Cal is lined up for a 40 yard field goal at the end of the first half. Cal is up 27-10. New Mexico St. coach Hal Mumme proceeds to call all 3 of his timeouts to ice the kicker. I have no problem with this. Good strategy as there are only 15 seconds left on the clock so it is unlikely they can mount a scoring drive whether or not Cal makes the field goal. Cal misses the kick and the camera cuts to Mumme on the sideline celebrating like he had just won the Powerball Jackpot. New Mexico St. went on to lose the game 41-13. I suppose this award should have just gone to the distinguished Mr. Mumme. Maybe Hal can turn this program around and have them competing for WAC championships. But when he leaves, will the WAC titles be worth the inevitable NCAA violations he leaves in his wake?
NFL: Random Thoughts
1. It's still early, but this years Colts team is looking a lot like Tony Dungy's Tampa Bay squads. Very good defense and a struggling offense. Of course, this could also be a function of the teams they have played. Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Cleveland are not offensive powerhouses by any means.
2. Instead of trying to gut out a heroic performance on Sunday, David Akers should have told the Eagles coaching staff earlier in the week that he was not able to play. They could have signed another kicker and added him to the roster. Instead, the Eagles suffered short kickoffs, missed extra points, and narrow short field goals in their squeaker victory over the Raiders.
Final Thought: LT throws a pretty good spiral.
Sunday, September 25, 2005
NFL Week Three Pigskin Pickin'
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 18-13
Tennessee at St. Louis
Winner: Tennessee
Oakland at Philadelphia
Winner: Philadelphia
Cincinnati at Chicago
Winner: Cincinnati
Jacksonville at NY Jets
Winner: NY Jets
New Orleans at Minnesota
Winner: Minnesota
Carolina at Miami
Winner: Carolina
Cleveland at Indianapolis
Winner: Indianapolis
Atlanta at Buffalo
Winner: Buffalo
Tampa Bay at Green Bay: The Bucs haven't won in Wisconsin since 1989.
Winner: Green Bay
Arizona at Seattle
Winner: Seattle
New England at Pittsburgh: The jury is still out on the Steelers. They have beaten the Titans and Texans, but neither of those teams are reminiscent of Lombardi's Packers.
Winner: New England
Dallas at San Francisco: If not for two fluke passes, Dallas would be 2-0.
Winner: Dallas
NY Giants at San Diego
Winner: San Diego
Kansas City at Denver
Winner: Kansas City
Overall: 18-13
Tennessee at St. Louis
Winner: Tennessee
Oakland at Philadelphia
Winner: Philadelphia
Cincinnati at Chicago
Winner: Cincinnati
Jacksonville at NY Jets
Winner: NY Jets
New Orleans at Minnesota
Winner: Minnesota
Carolina at Miami
Winner: Carolina
Cleveland at Indianapolis
Winner: Indianapolis
Atlanta at Buffalo
Winner: Buffalo
Tampa Bay at Green Bay: The Bucs haven't won in Wisconsin since 1989.
Winner: Green Bay
Arizona at Seattle
Winner: Seattle
New England at Pittsburgh: The jury is still out on the Steelers. They have beaten the Titans and Texans, but neither of those teams are reminiscent of Lombardi's Packers.
Winner: New England
Dallas at San Francisco: If not for two fluke passes, Dallas would be 2-0.
Winner: Dallas
NY Giants at San Diego
Winner: San Diego
Kansas City at Denver
Winner: Kansas City
Saturday, September 24, 2005
College Weekend Preview
Conference play gets under way this weekend. We find out who's for real and who's just teasing. The Big 10 matchups are particularly interesting as 10 teams with legitimate bowl aspirations open the season. Katy bar the door. On to the picks.
Weekend Six-Pack:
ACC Game: Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
This is a huge game in the ACC Coastal Division race. The winner remains undefeated and in the hunt fot the national championship. The loser is still in the ACC race but as far as national title hopes, its the Johnny Hates Jazz Special. Both squads own solid road victories over potential bowl teams (Georgia Tech at Auburn and Virginia Tech at NC St.). This game willl likely be a defensive battle with each team playing a very conservative brand of football. Even if Reggie Ball plays, I like the home crowd and more ferocious defense of the Hokies to come through.
Winner: Virginia Tech
Big East Game: Louisville at South Florida
Another slow week ahead in the Big East as this is the marquee game. The 'Ville hung 63 points on an overmatched Oregon St. team last week, while South Florida took care of business against Central Florida. This game will go a long way towards determining how good South Florida is. So far they have lost a somewhat close game at Penn St. (23-13) and beaten two lesser Florida schools at home (Florida A&M and UCF). If they can hang with Louisville at home then they can dream about going bowling in late December. The 'Ville is a different team away from Papa John's stadium, but they have too many athletes to lose to South Florida.
Winner: Louisville
Big 10 Game: Iowa at Ohio St.
The best of the bunch in Big 10 country in a slate that also includes Purdue/Minnesota, Penn St./Northwestern, Michigan St./Illinois, and Michigan/Wisconsin. This is an eliminator game with both teams coming off of early season losses. Ohio St. still has faint national title hopes even with their close loss to Texas. Iowa on the other hand is likely out of luck barring an unprecedented slew of losses by top teams in the coming months after their whipping at the hands of Iowa St. Like Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech this game will also be a defensive battle. I am tempted to pick Iowa seeing as how Jim Tressel refuses to get the ball to his playmakers, Ted Ginn and Santonio Holmes. However, Ohio St. will certainly be out for revenge after the 33-7 beat down Iowa put on them last year. Combine that with the homefield advantage and Ohio St. wins an ugly game where a 7 yard run may be the offensive highlight.
Winner: Ohio St.
Big 12 Game: Colorado at Miami
The Buffs travel east to take on The U in a game that would have been a lot more exciting in the early 1990's. Colorado has beaten rival Colorado St. in a squeaker and blown out the powerhouse New Mexico St. Aggies in their first 2 contests. Miami lost a closely contested ugly game to Florida St. and won a closely contested exciting game at Clemson. This is Miami's first home game and Colorado's first road game. The U takes it in a blowout.
Winner: Miami
Pac 10 Game: Southern Cal at Oregon
Despote all the lap dances Southern Cal has received from the media for being the greatest collegiate team since the Four Horsemen, don't forget this fact. In their previous 2 championship seasons, the Trojans have struggled on the road against decent Pac 10 teams.
2003 road conference games:
lost to California (8-6) 34-31
beat Arizona St. (5-7) 37-17
beat Washington (6-6) 43-23
beat Arizona (2-10) 45-0
2004 road conference games:
beat Stanford (4-7) 31-28
beat Washington St. (5-6) 32-12
beat Oregon St. (7-5) 28-20
beat UCLA (6-6) 29-24
Against teams with at least .500 records on the road, Southern Cal is 3-1 with an average margin of victory of 7.5. They are 21 point favorites over the Ducks this weekend. Oregon won't win, but they will give the Trojans all they can handle.
Winner: Southern Cal
SEC Game: Tennessee at LSU
This game has been moved to Monday night thanks to Hurrican Rita. Quoting my dad on last week's Tennessee game: 'Something with no heads is dead and something with 2 heads is a freak.' That sums up the Tennessee quarterback situation perfectly. Fulmer needs to pick his guy and stay with him. Anyway, LSU will win no matter who plays quarterback for the Vols.
Winner: LSU
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
North Carolina at NC St.: Your typical rivalry game. As the saying goes, you can defenestrate the records when rivals get together. NC St. is the better team and is playing at home, but the Heels will hang tough in an exciting ACC clash.
Notre Dame at Washington: While I would love to see classy Tyrone Willingham stick it to his former employers, the Huskies are just too bad to win this game. The talent the Irish have is far superior to that of Washington. Charlie Weis will continue tricking out the players Willingham recruited and beat the Huskies in a close game in Seattle.
Upset City:
Michigan St. at Illinois: As they are want to do, Sparticus will lose to an inferior team one week after notching a top 10 victory. You can practically see it coming. The road game at Illinois is sandwiched between the road win at Notre Dame and a home game with rival Michigan.
Penn St. at Northwestern: Joe Pa's boys have beaten absolutely no one of note early on, and suddenly all the pain and anguish of the past few seasons is forgotten. Since 1995 Northwestern has been a very competitive Big 10 team. A victory here will probably propel them to a bowl game. Northwestern upsets Penn St. and sports writers around the country begin their annual 'Does Joe Pa Have the Right to Choose When He Leaves' debate.
Enjoy the Weekend.
Weekend Six-Pack:
ACC Game: Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
This is a huge game in the ACC Coastal Division race. The winner remains undefeated and in the hunt fot the national championship. The loser is still in the ACC race but as far as national title hopes, its the Johnny Hates Jazz Special. Both squads own solid road victories over potential bowl teams (Georgia Tech at Auburn and Virginia Tech at NC St.). This game willl likely be a defensive battle with each team playing a very conservative brand of football. Even if Reggie Ball plays, I like the home crowd and more ferocious defense of the Hokies to come through.
Winner: Virginia Tech
Big East Game: Louisville at South Florida
Another slow week ahead in the Big East as this is the marquee game. The 'Ville hung 63 points on an overmatched Oregon St. team last week, while South Florida took care of business against Central Florida. This game will go a long way towards determining how good South Florida is. So far they have lost a somewhat close game at Penn St. (23-13) and beaten two lesser Florida schools at home (Florida A&M and UCF). If they can hang with Louisville at home then they can dream about going bowling in late December. The 'Ville is a different team away from Papa John's stadium, but they have too many athletes to lose to South Florida.
Winner: Louisville
Big 10 Game: Iowa at Ohio St.
The best of the bunch in Big 10 country in a slate that also includes Purdue/Minnesota, Penn St./Northwestern, Michigan St./Illinois, and Michigan/Wisconsin. This is an eliminator game with both teams coming off of early season losses. Ohio St. still has faint national title hopes even with their close loss to Texas. Iowa on the other hand is likely out of luck barring an unprecedented slew of losses by top teams in the coming months after their whipping at the hands of Iowa St. Like Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech this game will also be a defensive battle. I am tempted to pick Iowa seeing as how Jim Tressel refuses to get the ball to his playmakers, Ted Ginn and Santonio Holmes. However, Ohio St. will certainly be out for revenge after the 33-7 beat down Iowa put on them last year. Combine that with the homefield advantage and Ohio St. wins an ugly game where a 7 yard run may be the offensive highlight.
Winner: Ohio St.
Big 12 Game: Colorado at Miami
The Buffs travel east to take on The U in a game that would have been a lot more exciting in the early 1990's. Colorado has beaten rival Colorado St. in a squeaker and blown out the powerhouse New Mexico St. Aggies in their first 2 contests. Miami lost a closely contested ugly game to Florida St. and won a closely contested exciting game at Clemson. This is Miami's first home game and Colorado's first road game. The U takes it in a blowout.
Winner: Miami
Pac 10 Game: Southern Cal at Oregon
Despote all the lap dances Southern Cal has received from the media for being the greatest collegiate team since the Four Horsemen, don't forget this fact. In their previous 2 championship seasons, the Trojans have struggled on the road against decent Pac 10 teams.
2003 road conference games:
lost to California (8-6) 34-31
beat Arizona St. (5-7) 37-17
beat Washington (6-6) 43-23
beat Arizona (2-10) 45-0
2004 road conference games:
beat Stanford (4-7) 31-28
beat Washington St. (5-6) 32-12
beat Oregon St. (7-5) 28-20
beat UCLA (6-6) 29-24
Against teams with at least .500 records on the road, Southern Cal is 3-1 with an average margin of victory of 7.5. They are 21 point favorites over the Ducks this weekend. Oregon won't win, but they will give the Trojans all they can handle.
Winner: Southern Cal
SEC Game: Tennessee at LSU
This game has been moved to Monday night thanks to Hurrican Rita. Quoting my dad on last week's Tennessee game: 'Something with no heads is dead and something with 2 heads is a freak.' That sums up the Tennessee quarterback situation perfectly. Fulmer needs to pick his guy and stay with him. Anyway, LSU will win no matter who plays quarterback for the Vols.
Winner: LSU
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
North Carolina at NC St.: Your typical rivalry game. As the saying goes, you can defenestrate the records when rivals get together. NC St. is the better team and is playing at home, but the Heels will hang tough in an exciting ACC clash.
Notre Dame at Washington: While I would love to see classy Tyrone Willingham stick it to his former employers, the Huskies are just too bad to win this game. The talent the Irish have is far superior to that of Washington. Charlie Weis will continue tricking out the players Willingham recruited and beat the Huskies in a close game in Seattle.
Upset City:
Michigan St. at Illinois: As they are want to do, Sparticus will lose to an inferior team one week after notching a top 10 victory. You can practically see it coming. The road game at Illinois is sandwiched between the road win at Notre Dame and a home game with rival Michigan.
Penn St. at Northwestern: Joe Pa's boys have beaten absolutely no one of note early on, and suddenly all the pain and anguish of the past few seasons is forgotten. Since 1995 Northwestern has been a very competitive Big 10 team. A victory here will probably propel them to a bowl game. Northwestern upsets Penn St. and sports writers around the country begin their annual 'Does Joe Pa Have the Right to Choose When He Leaves' debate.
Enjoy the Weekend.
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
College/Pro Weekend Wrap-Up
College: I went 4-2 once again in the Six-Pack. However, the Palmetto State came up empty in their upset bids this weekend. Clemson gave The U all it could handle before succumbing in OT, but South Carolina laid an egg at home against Alabama dropping them to 0-2 in the SEC.
Winners:
Michigan St.: Thankfully they beat Notre Dame, and ended any talk of the Irish winning a national championship this season. However, if this Spartans team is to be any different from their past helter-skelter incarnations, they must win this weekend at Illinois.
Virginia: Winning in the Carrier Dome is never an easy task. It certainly wasn't pretty, but the Hoos left upstate New York with a valuable win. This season's ACC race will be very interesting.
UCLA: Handled an out-manned Oklahoma team at home as they should have. After taking them to task in an earlier post, I'll be the first to congragulate them on a big victory. Maybe something is Bruin in Los Angeles.
Losers:
Tennessee: Yep, I had these boys pegged as way overrated in late July. Pythagoras giveth and he taketh away.
Arkansas: No one expected you to hang with the defending champs. But when football scores resemble PGA golf scores, something is amiss in Fayetteville.
NFL: Random Thoughts
1. It appears the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon has crashed in the driveway. But there are still reasons to be optimistic. For starters, the two teams thay have played (Tampa Bay and Cincinnati) are a combined 4-0; and Tampa's defense proved to be just as stingy this past week against Buffalo. Their division is weak (Green Bay is 0-2, Detroit is 1-1, and Chicago is 1-1). The offense may be less potent after losing Randy Moss, but rest assured Daunte Culpepper will not average 4 interecptions per game the rest of the season. I still believe the Vikings have a great shot to win the NFC North.
2. For 55 minutes Monday night, Washington's offense looked as intimidating as Wallace Shawn. And then... Inconceivable... Mark Brunell suddenly looked like his 1998 self in tossing consecutive bombs to Santana Moss. Methinks, the first 55 minutes is more indicative of Washington's offensive prowess than the last 5.
3. Time to lay off the Saints being 'America's Team'. OK they beat Carolina in Week 1, but how is that any different from what they did in Week 17 last season? The Saints are not a good team, they are the same mediocre team they were last season. They pulled an upset. Those occasionally happen in athletic contests. For all intents and purposes, they get no home games this season, so lets dispense with the talk that the Saints will 'rally around each other' and make the postseason.
Final Thought: Here's why the NFL's QB rating formula is utterly lacking in measuring a quarterback's performance.
David Carr's stat line Sunday: 16 completions 26 attempts 167 yards 1 TD 0 INT 92.9 rating
...but, Carr was sacked 8 times for 59 yards
...so in reality, the Texans attempted 34 passes and netted 108 yards for a measly 3.2 yards per pass average, and thus only managed 7 points.
Winners:
Michigan St.: Thankfully they beat Notre Dame, and ended any talk of the Irish winning a national championship this season. However, if this Spartans team is to be any different from their past helter-skelter incarnations, they must win this weekend at Illinois.
Virginia: Winning in the Carrier Dome is never an easy task. It certainly wasn't pretty, but the Hoos left upstate New York with a valuable win. This season's ACC race will be very interesting.
UCLA: Handled an out-manned Oklahoma team at home as they should have. After taking them to task in an earlier post, I'll be the first to congragulate them on a big victory. Maybe something is Bruin in Los Angeles.
Losers:
Tennessee: Yep, I had these boys pegged as way overrated in late July. Pythagoras giveth and he taketh away.
Arkansas: No one expected you to hang with the defending champs. But when football scores resemble PGA golf scores, something is amiss in Fayetteville.
NFL: Random Thoughts
1. It appears the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon has crashed in the driveway. But there are still reasons to be optimistic. For starters, the two teams thay have played (Tampa Bay and Cincinnati) are a combined 4-0; and Tampa's defense proved to be just as stingy this past week against Buffalo. Their division is weak (Green Bay is 0-2, Detroit is 1-1, and Chicago is 1-1). The offense may be less potent after losing Randy Moss, but rest assured Daunte Culpepper will not average 4 interecptions per game the rest of the season. I still believe the Vikings have a great shot to win the NFC North.
2. For 55 minutes Monday night, Washington's offense looked as intimidating as Wallace Shawn. And then... Inconceivable... Mark Brunell suddenly looked like his 1998 self in tossing consecutive bombs to Santana Moss. Methinks, the first 55 minutes is more indicative of Washington's offensive prowess than the last 5.
3. Time to lay off the Saints being 'America's Team'. OK they beat Carolina in Week 1, but how is that any different from what they did in Week 17 last season? The Saints are not a good team, they are the same mediocre team they were last season. They pulled an upset. Those occasionally happen in athletic contests. For all intents and purposes, they get no home games this season, so lets dispense with the talk that the Saints will 'rally around each other' and make the postseason.
Final Thought: Here's why the NFL's QB rating formula is utterly lacking in measuring a quarterback's performance.
David Carr's stat line Sunday: 16 completions 26 attempts 167 yards 1 TD 0 INT 92.9 rating
...but, Carr was sacked 8 times for 59 yards
...so in reality, the Texans attempted 34 passes and netted 108 yards for a measly 3.2 yards per pass average, and thus only managed 7 points.
Sunday, September 18, 2005
NFL Week Two Pigskin Pickin'
Last Week: 9-6
Baltimore at Tennessee
Winner: Baltimore
Pittsburgh at Houston
Winner: Houston
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Winner: Indianapolis
Detroit at Chicago
Winner: Detroit
Minnesota at Cincinnati
Winner: Cincinnati
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Winner: Philadelphia
Buffalo at Tampa Bay
Winner: Tampa Bay
New England at Carolina
Winner: New England
Atlanta at Seattle
Winner: Seattle
St. Louis at Arizona
Winner: Arizona
Miami at NY Jets
Winner: NY Jets
Cleveland at Green Bay
Winner: Green Bay
San Diego at Denver
Winner: Denver
Kansas City at Oakland
Winner: Kansas City
New Orleans at NY Giants
Winner: NY Giants
Washington at Dallas
Winner: Dallas
Baltimore at Tennessee
Winner: Baltimore
Pittsburgh at Houston
Winner: Houston
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Winner: Indianapolis
Detroit at Chicago
Winner: Detroit
Minnesota at Cincinnati
Winner: Cincinnati
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Winner: Philadelphia
Buffalo at Tampa Bay
Winner: Tampa Bay
New England at Carolina
Winner: New England
Atlanta at Seattle
Winner: Seattle
St. Louis at Arizona
Winner: Arizona
Miami at NY Jets
Winner: NY Jets
Cleveland at Green Bay
Winner: Green Bay
San Diego at Denver
Winner: Denver
Kansas City at Oakland
Winner: Kansas City
New Orleans at NY Giants
Winner: NY Giants
Washington at Dallas
Winner: Dallas
Saturday, September 17, 2005
College Weekend Preview
My friend and compatriot Rohit has dubbed this weekend Bizarro Weekend. In a shocking development, he will be rooting for Bobby Bowden and FSU and I will be rooting for Robert Stoops and OU. On to the picks.
Weekend Six-Pack:
ACC Game: Florida St. at Boston College
Boston College opens their ACC life at home against the ACC's most dominant team in the 1990's. Many pundits have been declaring Boston College their 'surprise' team in the ACC, and suggesting they could play in the ACC's first ever championship game. I have but one problem with this analysis. Boston College has in the last two seasons lost twice... to Wake Forest. Losing to Wake Forest and winning conference championships are mutually exclusive events. That in itself would be reason to pick against the Eagles. However, after watching Florida St.'s dreadful passing attack against Miami, I simply cannot pick them to win a road game against a good team. Last season Florida St. played 5 road games and never scored more than 20 points in any of them. That trend will continue here and BC will open their ACC career with a victory. Here is an interesting prop bet for you: Which will be higher? The number of passed completed by Drew Weatherford or the number of sacks by the Florida St. defense.
Winner: Boston College
Big East Game: Oregon St. at Louisville
Fresh off a last second victory over Boise St., the Beavers travel east to take on the other half of last season's Liberty Bowl. Louisville has not lost at home since November of 2003 and Oregon St. has not won a non-conference road game since September of 2001. All signs point to the Cardinals remaining undefeated and in the hunt for a Rose Bowl bid.
Winner: Louisville
Big 10 Game: Michigan St. at Notre Dame
Yes Notre Dame is 2-0. Yes they beat Michigan in the Big House. Yes they are in the top 10. But for some reason I'm just not buying it. I thought a lot of the mistakes Michigan made against them were unforced. Maybe I'm just bitter for having picked against them for two weeks in a row. Third times the charm right?
Winner: Michigan St.
Big 12 Game: Oklahoma at UCLA
I missed the memo. When did UCLA become Nebraska circa 1995? Stewart Mandel of CNNSI fame, and ESPN.com have both had pieces this week on the other Los Angeles school. Sure it's easy to dismiss Oklahoma after lackluster performances in a loss to TCU and a narrow victory over Tulsa. But let's not go crazy over UCLA after they beat NCAA luminaries San Diego St. and Rice. Under head coach Karl Dorrell, UCLA has finished 6-7 and 6-6, losing their bowl games both seasons to schools from the WAC (Fresno St.) and Mountain West (Wyoming). If UCLA handles the Sooners with ease this weekend then we can all prolcaim UCLA as a team on the rise. But until then, they are a mid-level BCS school.
Winner: Oklahoma
Pac 10 Game: Fresno St. at Oregon
Pat Hill and the Bulldogs start their annual BCS road trip in Eugene, Oregon against the new look Ducks. The Ducks have run their new spread offense to perfection in early season victories over Houston and Montana. However, the Duck defense has been less than rock solid against those two inferior opponents. As they always seem to do, Fresno will keep this game close, but Oregon's offense and home field advantage will prove to be too much for the upstart Bulldogs.
Winner: Oregon
SEC Game: Tennessee at Florida
Urban Meyer begins his SEC coaching career against Tennessee and The Great Pumpkin, Phillip Fulmer. If you have been reading this blog for a while, you already know that I don't think Tennessee is that great. I'll spare you the details, but I'm picking the Gators to take care of business at home:
Winner: Florida
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
Purdue at Arizona: Pundits averywhere (including myself) have been naming Purdue their darkhorse Big 10 team thanks to the fact that they avoid Ohio St. and Michigan on their Big 10 schedule. Well, we must have overlooked this game. Although it won't count in the Big 10 standings, Purdue will get a very stiff test in the desert from an improving Arizona team. Not only that, but this game has 'trap' written all over it. Purdue opens Big 10 play at Minnesota next week, so they could very well be looking past the Wildcats.
Virginia at Syracuse: Virginia looked shaky in an early season win over Western Michigan. Now they travel to the Carrier Dome where Syracuse always plays very well. As of right now, Syracuse lacks the offensive firepower to beat Virginia, but their defense is stout and will keep this game a close low-scoring affair.
Upset City:
Alabama at South Carolina: Alabama has been less than impressive in consecutive home wins over Middle Tennessee and Southern Mississippi. Now they travel to Columbia to take on Steve Spurrier in his first SEC home game as coach of the Gamecocks. Both defenses are solid so the game will be reminiscent of many of the Gamecock's victories under Lou Holtz. The offense will do just enough to upset Alabama.
Miami at Clemson: Clemson is 2-0 with two quality wins, one at home and one on the road. Miami on the other hand, is 0-1 after imploding in the kicking game against Florida St. These are not the same Hurricanes from 2001-2002. Since starting 2004 6-0, they are only 3-4 in their last 7 games. They lack the aura of invincibility they had in the early part of this decade. Clemson starts the season 3-0, and their fans start prematurely talking Rose Bowl.
Enjoy the weekend.
Weekend Six-Pack:
ACC Game: Florida St. at Boston College
Boston College opens their ACC life at home against the ACC's most dominant team in the 1990's. Many pundits have been declaring Boston College their 'surprise' team in the ACC, and suggesting they could play in the ACC's first ever championship game. I have but one problem with this analysis. Boston College has in the last two seasons lost twice... to Wake Forest. Losing to Wake Forest and winning conference championships are mutually exclusive events. That in itself would be reason to pick against the Eagles. However, after watching Florida St.'s dreadful passing attack against Miami, I simply cannot pick them to win a road game against a good team. Last season Florida St. played 5 road games and never scored more than 20 points in any of them. That trend will continue here and BC will open their ACC career with a victory. Here is an interesting prop bet for you: Which will be higher? The number of passed completed by Drew Weatherford or the number of sacks by the Florida St. defense.
Winner: Boston College
Big East Game: Oregon St. at Louisville
Fresh off a last second victory over Boise St., the Beavers travel east to take on the other half of last season's Liberty Bowl. Louisville has not lost at home since November of 2003 and Oregon St. has not won a non-conference road game since September of 2001. All signs point to the Cardinals remaining undefeated and in the hunt for a Rose Bowl bid.
Winner: Louisville
Big 10 Game: Michigan St. at Notre Dame
Yes Notre Dame is 2-0. Yes they beat Michigan in the Big House. Yes they are in the top 10. But for some reason I'm just not buying it. I thought a lot of the mistakes Michigan made against them were unforced. Maybe I'm just bitter for having picked against them for two weeks in a row. Third times the charm right?
Winner: Michigan St.
Big 12 Game: Oklahoma at UCLA
I missed the memo. When did UCLA become Nebraska circa 1995? Stewart Mandel of CNNSI fame, and ESPN.com have both had pieces this week on the other Los Angeles school. Sure it's easy to dismiss Oklahoma after lackluster performances in a loss to TCU and a narrow victory over Tulsa. But let's not go crazy over UCLA after they beat NCAA luminaries San Diego St. and Rice. Under head coach Karl Dorrell, UCLA has finished 6-7 and 6-6, losing their bowl games both seasons to schools from the WAC (Fresno St.) and Mountain West (Wyoming). If UCLA handles the Sooners with ease this weekend then we can all prolcaim UCLA as a team on the rise. But until then, they are a mid-level BCS school.
Winner: Oklahoma
Pac 10 Game: Fresno St. at Oregon
Pat Hill and the Bulldogs start their annual BCS road trip in Eugene, Oregon against the new look Ducks. The Ducks have run their new spread offense to perfection in early season victories over Houston and Montana. However, the Duck defense has been less than rock solid against those two inferior opponents. As they always seem to do, Fresno will keep this game close, but Oregon's offense and home field advantage will prove to be too much for the upstart Bulldogs.
Winner: Oregon
SEC Game: Tennessee at Florida
Urban Meyer begins his SEC coaching career against Tennessee and The Great Pumpkin, Phillip Fulmer. If you have been reading this blog for a while, you already know that I don't think Tennessee is that great. I'll spare you the details, but I'm picking the Gators to take care of business at home:
Winner: Florida
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
Purdue at Arizona: Pundits averywhere (including myself) have been naming Purdue their darkhorse Big 10 team thanks to the fact that they avoid Ohio St. and Michigan on their Big 10 schedule. Well, we must have overlooked this game. Although it won't count in the Big 10 standings, Purdue will get a very stiff test in the desert from an improving Arizona team. Not only that, but this game has 'trap' written all over it. Purdue opens Big 10 play at Minnesota next week, so they could very well be looking past the Wildcats.
Virginia at Syracuse: Virginia looked shaky in an early season win over Western Michigan. Now they travel to the Carrier Dome where Syracuse always plays very well. As of right now, Syracuse lacks the offensive firepower to beat Virginia, but their defense is stout and will keep this game a close low-scoring affair.
Upset City:
Alabama at South Carolina: Alabama has been less than impressive in consecutive home wins over Middle Tennessee and Southern Mississippi. Now they travel to Columbia to take on Steve Spurrier in his first SEC home game as coach of the Gamecocks. Both defenses are solid so the game will be reminiscent of many of the Gamecock's victories under Lou Holtz. The offense will do just enough to upset Alabama.
Miami at Clemson: Clemson is 2-0 with two quality wins, one at home and one on the road. Miami on the other hand, is 0-1 after imploding in the kicking game against Florida St. These are not the same Hurricanes from 2001-2002. Since starting 2004 6-0, they are only 3-4 in their last 7 games. They lack the aura of invincibility they had in the early part of this decade. Clemson starts the season 3-0, and their fans start prematurely talking Rose Bowl.
Enjoy the weekend.
Wednesday, September 14, 2005
Same Ole Commode-Dores? Maybe Not
Being a Wake Forest football fan and alum, I am always rooting for teams in similar situations (private academic schools in a conferences dominated by public schools) to rise up and stick it to the establishment in the college football hierarchy. This causes me to root, largely in vain, for school like Baylor, Vanderbilt, and Northwestern (but definitely not Duke) in football clashes not involving my Deacons. Northwestern has been moderately successful in the past decade, sharing 3 Big 10 championships since 1995, while Baylor and Vanderbilt have at their peak, been also also-rans in their respective conferences. However, for Vanderbilt, this season may be different. Baylor is 2-0, but their victories are over SMU and Samford (and son), so I’ll hold off on writing any pieces about them until they win a Big 12 road game. Vanderbilt on the other hand, has won 2 road games. The first was 24-20 decision witnessed personally by myself at Wake Forest, and the second a 28-24 win this past Saturday at Arkansas.
How has Vanderbilt started the season 2-0? Let’s take a closer look starting with the defense. At first glance it would appear to be using smoke and mirrors and other parlor tricks. Against Wake Forest they allowed 274 rushing yards (5.4 yards per attempt) and still won. Against Arkansas they allowed 194 rushing yards (4.5 yards per attempt) and still won. But dig a little deeper. Against Wake, of the 49 rushing plays not counting sacks (which count as negative rushing yardage in the college game) 17 (35%) went for 3 yards or less. 31 (63%) went for 6 yards or less. 10 (20%) were between 7-10 yards. 8 (16%) went for more than 10 yards with a long of 33. Wake routinely gashed Vanderbilt for runs of 5 yards or more, but their drives were stalled because they had such a high percentage of runs go for 3 yards or less as well. The rushing defense against Arkansas was a little different. Of the 39 running plays discounting sacks, 19 (49% almost half!) went for 3 yards or less. 27 (69%) went for 6 yards or less. 5 (13%) were between 7-10 yards. 7 (18%) were for more than 10 yards with a long of 39 (which was the first Arkansas touchdown). As opposed to the Wake game, where there defense routinely gave up runs of 5 or more yards, Vanderbilt played very solid run defense against Arkansas. The Hogs accumulated a relatively high yards per attempt average thanks to some long runs, but they were stopped on almost half of their runs for 3 yards or less. This is best illustrated on their second possession. They had a 1st and Goal at the Vandy 4 yard line. A 1st down run netted 3 yards and moved the ball to the 1 yard line. However, Arkansas was stopped 3 times in a row for no gain and subsequently Vanderbilt took over on offense.
The run defense against Wake avoided giving up many long runs, but did surrender a large number of intermediate runs. However, as any math major will tell you, it still takes a lot of plays to move down the field when you gain 5 yards at a time. Odds are, eventually the drive will stop short of a touchdown. Against Arkansas, the run defense was feast or famine. Arkansas backs either gained lots of yards or were stuffed at the line. Vandy benefited by playing two teams without superior passing attacks. On the occasions when the running plays were stuffed and the offenses needed to pass to obtain a first down, they were not able to do so.
Lest we forget, Vanderbilt’s offense has also played a key role in their 2-0 start. QB Jay Cutler, a bona-fide pro prospect has thrown for 554 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in the first two games. He has also added a rushing touchdown. His yards per pass attempt is a decent 6.8. All told, Cutler has been rather pedestrian so far, but he has avoided turnovers (only 2 interceptions and no lost fumbles) and has not put the elastic Vanderbilt defense into any bad situations.
One final factor in the Vanderbilt start is simple luck. Last season Vanderbilt had the luck of Frank Grimes. They were 0-5 in games decided by 6 points or fewer. This season, they have won 2 games by a combined 8 points. Tennessee still owes Pythagoras from last season, but in Vandy’s case Pythagoras has given them what amounts to an early season tax return (sorry we owe you from last year). Just a simple case of luck evening out over time.
Vandy has its next 5 games at home. The first 3 (Mississippi, Richmond, and Middle Tennessee) are all winnable. The next 2 (LSU and Georgia), well stranger things have happened. Vandy also gets another winnable game at home at against Kentucky later in the year sandwiched between road trips to South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee. It won’t be easy, but Vandy definitely has a chance to make their first bowl trip since 1982. I’m sure if Vandy wins their next 3, ESPN.com will run an Ivan Maisel piece where he expounds some mumbo-jumbo about how Vandy finally ‘believes they can win’ and how head coach Bobby Johnson’s no cursing policy has ‘helped the players overcome adversity as a team’, when in reality the fact is this: Vanderbilt has a solid SEC team with good SEC players. No they won’t compete for a national championship, but neither will half the schools with bigger budgets, bigger stadiums, and better players. Kudos to you Mr. Johnson.
How has Vanderbilt started the season 2-0? Let’s take a closer look starting with the defense. At first glance it would appear to be using smoke and mirrors and other parlor tricks. Against Wake Forest they allowed 274 rushing yards (5.4 yards per attempt) and still won. Against Arkansas they allowed 194 rushing yards (4.5 yards per attempt) and still won. But dig a little deeper. Against Wake, of the 49 rushing plays not counting sacks (which count as negative rushing yardage in the college game) 17 (35%) went for 3 yards or less. 31 (63%) went for 6 yards or less. 10 (20%) were between 7-10 yards. 8 (16%) went for more than 10 yards with a long of 33. Wake routinely gashed Vanderbilt for runs of 5 yards or more, but their drives were stalled because they had such a high percentage of runs go for 3 yards or less as well. The rushing defense against Arkansas was a little different. Of the 39 running plays discounting sacks, 19 (49% almost half!) went for 3 yards or less. 27 (69%) went for 6 yards or less. 5 (13%) were between 7-10 yards. 7 (18%) were for more than 10 yards with a long of 39 (which was the first Arkansas touchdown). As opposed to the Wake game, where there defense routinely gave up runs of 5 or more yards, Vanderbilt played very solid run defense against Arkansas. The Hogs accumulated a relatively high yards per attempt average thanks to some long runs, but they were stopped on almost half of their runs for 3 yards or less. This is best illustrated on their second possession. They had a 1st and Goal at the Vandy 4 yard line. A 1st down run netted 3 yards and moved the ball to the 1 yard line. However, Arkansas was stopped 3 times in a row for no gain and subsequently Vanderbilt took over on offense.
The run defense against Wake avoided giving up many long runs, but did surrender a large number of intermediate runs. However, as any math major will tell you, it still takes a lot of plays to move down the field when you gain 5 yards at a time. Odds are, eventually the drive will stop short of a touchdown. Against Arkansas, the run defense was feast or famine. Arkansas backs either gained lots of yards or were stuffed at the line. Vandy benefited by playing two teams without superior passing attacks. On the occasions when the running plays were stuffed and the offenses needed to pass to obtain a first down, they were not able to do so.
Lest we forget, Vanderbilt’s offense has also played a key role in their 2-0 start. QB Jay Cutler, a bona-fide pro prospect has thrown for 554 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in the first two games. He has also added a rushing touchdown. His yards per pass attempt is a decent 6.8. All told, Cutler has been rather pedestrian so far, but he has avoided turnovers (only 2 interceptions and no lost fumbles) and has not put the elastic Vanderbilt defense into any bad situations.
One final factor in the Vanderbilt start is simple luck. Last season Vanderbilt had the luck of Frank Grimes. They were 0-5 in games decided by 6 points or fewer. This season, they have won 2 games by a combined 8 points. Tennessee still owes Pythagoras from last season, but in Vandy’s case Pythagoras has given them what amounts to an early season tax return (sorry we owe you from last year). Just a simple case of luck evening out over time.
Vandy has its next 5 games at home. The first 3 (Mississippi, Richmond, and Middle Tennessee) are all winnable. The next 2 (LSU and Georgia), well stranger things have happened. Vandy also gets another winnable game at home at against Kentucky later in the year sandwiched between road trips to South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee. It won’t be easy, but Vandy definitely has a chance to make their first bowl trip since 1982. I’m sure if Vandy wins their next 3, ESPN.com will run an Ivan Maisel piece where he expounds some mumbo-jumbo about how Vandy finally ‘believes they can win’ and how head coach Bobby Johnson’s no cursing policy has ‘helped the players overcome adversity as a team’, when in reality the fact is this: Vanderbilt has a solid SEC team with good SEC players. No they won’t compete for a national championship, but neither will half the schools with bigger budgets, bigger stadiums, and better players. Kudos to you Mr. Johnson.
Tuesday, September 13, 2005
College/Pro Weekend Wrap-Up
College:
Things went a little better in the prognostication department this week. I was 4-2 in the Six-Pack and showed utter clairvoyance in my two upset picks.
Winners:
Texas: They went into a hostile environment and came away with a close win thanks to Jim Tressel's conservative play-calling. They should be favored in every game they play from here on out. Mack Brown will have some serious explaining to do if Texas doesn't play in the Rose Bowl this year.
Vanderbilt: Went into Fayetteville and came away with a big road win. Even if Arkansas is down this year, this is still a huge win for Bobby Johnson's program. Now 2-0, they have a real chance of winning their next 3 home game (Mississippi, Richmond, and Middle Tennessee).
The Mountain West: Another Mountain West member, New Mexico, won at another Big 12 school, Missouri. The top 5 teams (Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, Air Force, and maybe TCU) will stage a very competitive division race. Too bad more people aren't paying attention.
Losers:
The Big 10: The holy trinity of the Big 10 (Michigan, Ohio St., and Iowa) all lost this week. And 2 of them were at home.
TCU: Lost all the goodwill they garnered last week with a loss to the pony express.
NFL:
The first thing to remember about Week 1 in the NFL is not to jump to conclusions. Sure, Miami and San Francisco looked to be playoff contenders, the defenses from Indy and KC looked like the 85' Bears, Daunte Culpepper looked lost without Randy Moss, and a host of other results amazed folks. It's only Week 1. There are 16 more weeks to go. In 2003, the eventual Super Bowl champion Pariots lost 31-0 to Buffalo in the season's first game. Last season, the lowly Browns dominated the Ravnes 20-3 in Week 1. The Washington Redskins have now won their opening game for 4 straight seasons and have zero playoff appearances in that span. Withhold judgement until at least Week 5.
Things went a little better in the prognostication department this week. I was 4-2 in the Six-Pack and showed utter clairvoyance in my two upset picks.
Winners:
Texas: They went into a hostile environment and came away with a close win thanks to Jim Tressel's conservative play-calling. They should be favored in every game they play from here on out. Mack Brown will have some serious explaining to do if Texas doesn't play in the Rose Bowl this year.
Vanderbilt: Went into Fayetteville and came away with a big road win. Even if Arkansas is down this year, this is still a huge win for Bobby Johnson's program. Now 2-0, they have a real chance of winning their next 3 home game (Mississippi, Richmond, and Middle Tennessee).
The Mountain West: Another Mountain West member, New Mexico, won at another Big 12 school, Missouri. The top 5 teams (Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, Air Force, and maybe TCU) will stage a very competitive division race. Too bad more people aren't paying attention.
Losers:
The Big 10: The holy trinity of the Big 10 (Michigan, Ohio St., and Iowa) all lost this week. And 2 of them were at home.
TCU: Lost all the goodwill they garnered last week with a loss to the pony express.
NFL:
The first thing to remember about Week 1 in the NFL is not to jump to conclusions. Sure, Miami and San Francisco looked to be playoff contenders, the defenses from Indy and KC looked like the 85' Bears, Daunte Culpepper looked lost without Randy Moss, and a host of other results amazed folks. It's only Week 1. There are 16 more weeks to go. In 2003, the eventual Super Bowl champion Pariots lost 31-0 to Buffalo in the season's first game. Last season, the lowly Browns dominated the Ravnes 20-3 in Week 1. The Washington Redskins have now won their opening game for 4 straight seasons and have zero playoff appearances in that span. Withhold judgement until at least Week 5.
Sunday, September 11, 2005
NFL Week One Pigskin Pickin'
A quick Week 1 Prediction-fest before church.
Denver at Miami
Winner: Denver
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Winner: Cincinnati
Houston at Buffalo
Winner: Buffalo
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Winner: Pittsburgh
Chicago at Wahington: Will there be 100 combined passing yards?
Winner: Washington
New Orleans at Carolina
Winner: Carolina
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Winner: Minnesota
Seattle at Jacksonville: Jacksonville was not as good as their record showed last season.
Winner: Seattle
NY Jets at Kansas City
Winner: Kansas City
Arizona at NY Giants
Winner: NY Giants
St. Louis at San Francisco: Everyone is picking the Rams in their suicide/eliminator office pool. Be forewarned, the Rams were only 2-6 on the road last season.
Winner: San Francisco
Green Bay at Detroit
Winner: Detroit
Dallas at San Diego
Winner: San Diego
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Winner: Indianapolis
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Winner: Philadelphia
Denver at Miami
Winner: Denver
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Winner: Cincinnati
Houston at Buffalo
Winner: Buffalo
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Winner: Pittsburgh
Chicago at Wahington: Will there be 100 combined passing yards?
Winner: Washington
New Orleans at Carolina
Winner: Carolina
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Winner: Minnesota
Seattle at Jacksonville: Jacksonville was not as good as their record showed last season.
Winner: Seattle
NY Jets at Kansas City
Winner: Kansas City
Arizona at NY Giants
Winner: NY Giants
St. Louis at San Francisco: Everyone is picking the Rams in their suicide/eliminator office pool. Be forewarned, the Rams were only 2-6 on the road last season.
Winner: San Francisco
Green Bay at Detroit
Winner: Detroit
Dallas at San Diego
Winner: San Diego
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Winner: Indianapolis
Philadelphia at Atlanta
Winner: Philadelphia
Friday, September 09, 2005
College Weekend Preview
Weekend Six-Pack:
ACC Game: Clemson at Maryland
Somehow Maryland is favored in this game after barely squeaking by Navy on a last minute touchdown. Clemson on the other hand beat a good Texas A&M team also in the final seconds. Here's betting a few more Clemson drives end in touchdowns rather than field goals as they did against A&M. Clemson wins rather easily.
Winner: Clemson
Big East Game: Cincinnati at Penn St.
The pickings are slim in Big (L)East country this week. Penn St. was less than impressive in beating South Florida 23-13 last week. However, Cincinnati was even less impressive in beating Eastern Michigan 28-26. It won't be pretty, but Penn St. will be 2-0 after this game.
Winner: Penn St.
Big 10 Game: Notre Dame at Michigan
As I am writing this, Pittsburgh is losing 10-7 at the half to Ohio. So um... maybe Notre Dame's victory last week isn't all that impressive. I'm not from Missouri, but the Irish are gonna have to show me they can beat an elite team.
Winner: Michigan
Big 12 Game: Texas at Ohio St.
The game of the weekend, and definitely the non-conference game of the season. Texas rolled over the Rajun' Cajuns last week and Ohio St. had an easier than expected win over the other Miami. I'm going with Ohio St. for two reasons: They are the home team, and Texas hasn't beaten a top 10 team since they upset Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game... in 1996.
Winner: Ohio St.
Pac 10 Game: LSU at Arizona St.
This game has been moved from Baton Rouge to Tempe because of Hurrican Katrina. In Baton Rouge, LSU would be heavy favorites, but on the road, this game becomes very interesting. LSU will struggle, but their superior talent will win out in the end.
Winner: LSU
SEC Game: South Carolina at Georgia
Contrary to what Vegas says, the Cocks will play hard *snickers* and keep this game close. If Jared Zabransky had not been kidnapped and replaced by Chris Rix before the game, Georgia would have had a much more difficult time with Boise. South Carolina does not have the requisite personnel to run Spurrier's system, so they will ultimately fall short against the Dawgs.
Winner: Georgia
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
Wake Forest at Nebraska: Wake will keep it close as usual, but will make just enough mistakes to lose. However, what if the unthinkable happens? Will Bill Callahan be fired on the spot? Will Nebraska drop football? This game is both a testament to how far Nebraska has fallen and how far Wake has come. Seriously, if this was say 1997, what would the spread be? Nebraska -70?
California at Washington: Last week against Sacramento St., Cal's starting quarterback Nate Longshore went down with a broken leg. His replacement Joseph Ayoob completed zero passes in 10 attempts. Washinton, in their home opener, under new head coach Tyrone Willingham will keep this game very close.
Upset City:
Vanderbilt at Arkansas: Call me crazy, but I think Vandy has a real chance. No they can't stop the run, and that's exactly what Arkansas will do against them. But Vandy's quarterback Jay Cutler is the real deal. Vandy wins a shootout.
Iowa at Iowa St.: Iowa St. always seems to play Iowa tough. In 2002, while Iowa was busy going undefeated in the Big 10, they lost to the Cyclones. Last season Iowa (10-2) only won 17-10. Iowa St. pulls the upset and ends Iowa's national championship hopes.
Enjoy the weekend.
ACC Game: Clemson at Maryland
Somehow Maryland is favored in this game after barely squeaking by Navy on a last minute touchdown. Clemson on the other hand beat a good Texas A&M team also in the final seconds. Here's betting a few more Clemson drives end in touchdowns rather than field goals as they did against A&M. Clemson wins rather easily.
Winner: Clemson
Big East Game: Cincinnati at Penn St.
The pickings are slim in Big (L)East country this week. Penn St. was less than impressive in beating South Florida 23-13 last week. However, Cincinnati was even less impressive in beating Eastern Michigan 28-26. It won't be pretty, but Penn St. will be 2-0 after this game.
Winner: Penn St.
Big 10 Game: Notre Dame at Michigan
As I am writing this, Pittsburgh is losing 10-7 at the half to Ohio. So um... maybe Notre Dame's victory last week isn't all that impressive. I'm not from Missouri, but the Irish are gonna have to show me they can beat an elite team.
Winner: Michigan
Big 12 Game: Texas at Ohio St.
The game of the weekend, and definitely the non-conference game of the season. Texas rolled over the Rajun' Cajuns last week and Ohio St. had an easier than expected win over the other Miami. I'm going with Ohio St. for two reasons: They are the home team, and Texas hasn't beaten a top 10 team since they upset Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship Game... in 1996.
Winner: Ohio St.
Pac 10 Game: LSU at Arizona St.
This game has been moved from Baton Rouge to Tempe because of Hurrican Katrina. In Baton Rouge, LSU would be heavy favorites, but on the road, this game becomes very interesting. LSU will struggle, but their superior talent will win out in the end.
Winner: LSU
SEC Game: South Carolina at Georgia
Contrary to what Vegas says, the Cocks will play hard *snickers* and keep this game close. If Jared Zabransky had not been kidnapped and replaced by Chris Rix before the game, Georgia would have had a much more difficult time with Boise. South Carolina does not have the requisite personnel to run Spurrier's system, so they will ultimately fall short against the Dawgs.
Winner: Georgia
Underdog Section:
Close but no Cigar:
Wake Forest at Nebraska: Wake will keep it close as usual, but will make just enough mistakes to lose. However, what if the unthinkable happens? Will Bill Callahan be fired on the spot? Will Nebraska drop football? This game is both a testament to how far Nebraska has fallen and how far Wake has come. Seriously, if this was say 1997, what would the spread be? Nebraska -70?
California at Washington: Last week against Sacramento St., Cal's starting quarterback Nate Longshore went down with a broken leg. His replacement Joseph Ayoob completed zero passes in 10 attempts. Washinton, in their home opener, under new head coach Tyrone Willingham will keep this game very close.
Upset City:
Vanderbilt at Arkansas: Call me crazy, but I think Vandy has a real chance. No they can't stop the run, and that's exactly what Arkansas will do against them. But Vandy's quarterback Jay Cutler is the real deal. Vandy wins a shootout.
Iowa at Iowa St.: Iowa St. always seems to play Iowa tough. In 2002, while Iowa was busy going undefeated in the Big 10, they lost to the Cyclones. Last season Iowa (10-2) only won 17-10. Iowa St. pulls the upset and ends Iowa's national championship hopes.
Enjoy the weekend.
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
NFC Preview
NFC East Projected Order of Finish:
Philadelphia Eagles
Last Year: 13-3, lost Super Bowl to Patriots
This Year: The Terrell Owens media circus will not have an adverse affect on this team. Remember, they played in 3 straight NFC Championship games, and made the playoffs 4 years in a row before he came to town. If TO plays, the Eagles offense will be upper-echelon like last year, and if he doesn’t play it will be mediocre. Either way, with the defense and special teams they have, the Eagles will handily win the NFC East.
Summation: The Eagles win 12 or 13 games, their 5th straight NFC East title, and play in their 5th straight NFC Championship game. However, they will be 1-4 in title games after this season.
Dallas Cowboys
Last Year: 6-10, no playoffs
This Year: The Cowboys added the aging lead-footed Drew Bledsoe to replace the aged lead-footed Vinny Testaverde. Call the QB situation a wash. RB Julius Jones looks to improve in his second season, and I see no reason to believe that he won’t. However, it’s the defense that must improve the most if this team is to contend. They finished 28th in points allowed last year. That won’t get the job done whether Bill Parcells or Sam Wyche is coaching your team. To improve the D in the off-season, Dallas added DT Jason Ferguson and CB Aaron Glenn. Dallas can also expect improvement from youngsters Roy Williams and Terrance Newman in the secondary.
Summation: While Drew Bledsoe is no great shakes at QB, he is not Craig Krenzel either. The Dallas defense and running attack will compensate for the average passing game. Expect Dallas to win 9-10 games and grab a wildcard playoff spot.
New York Giants
Last Year: 6-10, no playoffs
This Year: The Giants are an intriguing team. The bolstered their defense in the off-season by adding LB Antonio Pierce and DT Kendrick Clancy. They will also get a full season’s work from Michael Strahan (hopefully) who played in 8 games last year before going down with an injury. The Giants also gave Eli Manning another big weapon in WR Plaxico Burress.
Summation: The defense should be vastly improved over last seasons’ model, so it all comes down to Eli. I for one am not sold on a marked improvement for him this year. Peyton improved dramatically in his second year, but take one second to ponder the numbers.
Peyton’s Rookie Year: 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 26 TDs, 28 INTs
Eli’s Rookie Year: 5.3 yards per pass attempt, 6 TDs, 9 INTs
It should also be noted that 2004 was one of the best (if not the best) environments for passing ever.
Peyton’s 2nd Year: 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 26 TDs, 15 INTs
Peyton put up much better numbers in an offensive environment slightly less conducive for passing. Eli would have to improve a great deal in his 2nd year to even equal his brother’s rookie year. Eli will struggle again this year, but the Giants D will carry them to 6 wins and a tumultuous off-season where they will be forced to decide what to do with Eli.
Washington Redskins
Last Year: 6-10, no playoffs
This Year: The Redskins defense was downright scary last year, but so was the offense (in a bad way). The defense suffered significant losses in the form of LB Antonio Pierce and CB Fred Smoot. The Redskins did add WR Santana Moss to the receiving corps, but he is not much of an upgrade (if any) over Laveranues Coles.
Summation: Unless Patrick Ramsey or 1st round pick Jason Campbell miraculously develops, or Mark Brunell makes a Lazarus-like rise from the dead, expect the Washington offense to be anemic just like last season. The defense should regress a little from its fantastic performance in 2004. All told, expect 5 wins, and a very frustrated Joe Gibbs at season’s end.
NFC South Projected Order of Finish:
Carolina Panthers
Last Year: 7-9, no playoffs
This Year: Don’t look at the overall record, but look at the point differential and you will see a developing trend.
2002: -44
2003: +21
2004: +16
The 2003 Panthers were a historic fluke. They won several regular season games they shouldn’t have, and then exploited a weak NFC and a terrible Mike Martz coaching decision to play in the Super Bowl. The 2004 version was almost just as good as the 2003 version, but was much less lucky. This is the year the Panthers finally play like the team many thought they were in 2003. The addition of G Mike Wahle from Green Bay instantly improves the running game, the bread and butter of John Fox’s system. On defense, Carolina strengthened its secondary by adding CB Ken Lucas.
Summation: The Panthers will roll to an NFC South division title barring an historic run of injuries similar to what they suffered through last year. Pencil them in for 11 or 12 wins and a return to the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Year: 5-11, no playoffs
This Year: The Tampa Bay Bucs are every statistician’s enigma. In 2003, they outscored their opponents by 37 points and finished 7-9, and last year they were only outscored by 3 points yet finished 5-11. In my humble opinion, their luck has to turn. Although nowhere near as strong as the championship unit of 2002, the defense is still good. They finished 9th in points allowed last season. The addition of Chris Hovan should bolster the defensive line. The offense should be just as good if not better. Brian Griese played surprisingly well at quarterback last season and the maturation of WR Michael Clayton should improve the passing game. The running game should also get a shot in the arm with the drafting of Carnell ‘Cadillac’ Williams. We’ll see if his 8 cylinders are firing in line.
Summation: Tampa Bay has their luck turn around somewhat. They will win 9-10 games and claim the last wildcard spot alongside Dallas.
Atlanta Falcons
Last Year: 11-5, lost to Eagles in NFC Championship game
This Year: Don’t be fooled by the 2004 incarnation of the Atlanta Falcons. Yes they won 11 games, but they only outscored their opponents by 3 points on the season. Yes they dominated the Rams in the playoffs. But these were not your older brother’s Rams. They were themselves a flawed 8-8 team that had just won a road playoff game the week before. Give Atlanta credit for not resting on their laurels. They added depth to their defense with the additions of LB Ike Reese and Edgerton Hartwell. The Falcons must hope their receiving corps improves or Michael Vick will have many 10 for 25 passing lines in the box score.
Summation: Atlanta may actually improve this season, but it will not be reflected in their record. They will win 7-8 games and contend for a wildcard spot, but ultimately fall short.
New Orleans Saints:
Last Year: 8-8, no playoffs
This Year: You know a 3-13 or 4-12 season could do this team some good. Every year under Jim Haslett, the Saints finish between 7-9 wins, the epitome of mediocrity. And then the following year, with little crucial roster tinkering the Saints believe they will finally ‘put it together’ and break through. And continue ad infinitum. However, this could be the year they finally implode, and incidentally set them up for contention a few years down the road.
Summation: The Saints again kept most of their skill position personnel intact, and added some low-key players on defense (S Dwight Smith and LB Levar Fisher). Normally I would expect another 7-9 or 8-8 season, but with the natural disaster in the gulf coast, the Saints will be a nomad team the entire year. They will play exactly zero home games, and what amounts to 16 road contests. The 1985 Bears would struggle with that schedule. The Saints will win 4 or 5 games, and after the season Haslett will be fired, the roster will be blown up, and the Saints will try to build a winner with new parts.
NFC West Projected Order of Finish
Seattle Seahawks
Last Year: 9-7, lost to Rams in Wildcard Round
This Year: Read this article. If you’re too impatient, I will try to explain it with not so eloquent verbiage. The jist of it is that teams that perform poorly on 3rd down compared to 1st and 2nd downs (on offense or defense) one year tend to progress to the mean the next year (and vice-versa). Confused? The Seahawks were bad on 3rd downs offensively compared to 1st and 2nd downs. Therefore, they should improve this season simply by regression (or in this case progression) to the mean. Everyone’s Super Bowl darkhorse from last season is my Super Bowl favorite this season.
Summation: If you are a betting man, bet heavily on Seattle winning this weak division. I mean really, who else will win it? Would you really lay money on the Arizona Cardinals? And the Rams’ defense has more holes than a Pawley’s Island hammock. Seattle rolls in this division. They will win 12 or 13 games. Once in the playoffs, Mike Holmgren will lead his 2nd franchise to the Super Bowl where they will meet and defeat the Kansas City Chiefs.
Arizona Cardinals:
Last Year: 6-10, no playoffs
This Year: The Cardinals added former MVP Kurt Warner to their offense in the off-season. However, this is not the Kurt Warner of 99-01. Warner fooled many with his performance last season. It looked efficient; almost 63% completion percentage, 6 TDs and only 4 INTs, but dig a little deeper. He was sacked 39 times in only 10 games (contrast this to 2001 when he was sacked 38 times in 16 games) and he fumbled 12 times. Warner is a shadow of his former self. He either holds on to the ball too long and takes a sack, or doesn’t hold onto the ball and fumbles. That being said, Arizona will still contend for a playoff spot in 2005 thanks to its young receivers (Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin), young running back (J.J. Arrington) and improved defense. The Cardinals added DE Chike Okeafor, S Robert Griffith, and LB Orlando Huff to the unit in the off-season.
Summation: Warner will provide enough solid surface stats (completion %, good TD/INT ratio) to make people believe he is helping Arizona win. In actuality it will be the defense and young skill position players that help Arizona improve. Expect 8 wins and a season of wildcard contention that will fall just short.
St. Louis Rams
Last Year: 8-8, lost to Falcons in Divisional Round
This Year: These are not the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ Rams. They are far from it. They are not even the best offense in Missouri. Care to hazard a guess where this offensive dynamo finished in points scored last season? 19th. They were mediocre at best on offense. They were also outscored by 73 points on the year so they were a bit lucky to go 8-8. Also, don’t forget that one of their victories was over an Eagles team that was resting its starters in Week 16. These guys are living off their rep and have been doing so for several years. They added LBs Dexter Coakley and Chris Claiborne to improve a defense that was mediocre on good days and downright appalling on bad days last season.
Summation: Marshall Faulk is in decline, but should be replaced admirably be Stephen Jackson. However, even if Jackson performs at his absolute peak, do you really believe he will be equal to Faulk circa 99-01? No way. Isaac Bruce will also suffer another year of decline as he is now 33. The defense may improve a little, but that will be offset by offensive regression and a stronger division. The Rams will win 6 games and Mike Martz will be on the hotseat.
San Francisco 49ers
Last Year: 2-14, unmitigated disaster
This Year: Why does Dennis Erickson coach pro football? Its obvious he sucks at it. Stay in college and build moribund programs like Oregon St. into national powers. Anyway, the 49ers don’t appear to be much better this year than last. The 49ers do get stud LB Julian Peterson back after he missed 11 games last year with an injury. However, his presence alone will not be enough to save a unit that finished last in points allowed last season.
Summation: This will be a bad year for the 49ers. There is hope though. Alex Smith may turn out to be their QB of the future. Other than that, expect 3 or 4 wins at the most from this squad.
NFC North Projected Order of Finish
Minnesota Vikings
Last Year: 8-8, lost to Eagles in Divisional Round
This Year: The Vikings lost WR Randy Moss this off-season, but should more than make up for that with the addition of several playmakers on defense. New CB Fred Smoot will team with holdover Antoine Winfield to form a solid coverage unit. LBs Sam Cowart and Napoleon Harris, DT Pat Williams, and S Darren Sharper will also vastly improve the Vikings porous defense. Daunte Culpepper will continue to anchor a solid offense that will slow down a bit with the loss of Randy Moss.
Summation: In what looks to be a down year for the NFC North, the Vikings will cruise to the title with an 11 win season.
Detroit Lions
Last Year: 6-10, no playoffs
This Year: Detroit was going to be a wildcard team until they lost QB Jeff Garcia to a broken leg in the preseason. Charles Rogers and the Williams boyz (Mike and Roy) should still make for an exciting group of receivers until Rogers breaks his collarbone again. Kevin Jones should also be a stud in the backfield. The only hole on this team is at QB. Joey Harrington has not performed like a 1st Round pick in any of his 3 seasons. For this reason, I thought Jeff Garcia would take the reigns and lead the Lions to the playoffs.
Summation: Good skill position players, average defense, and a good coach. The only thing missing is a QB who can get the skill players the ball. That is what will kill Detroit this season. The Lions will win 7 games and wonder what could have been had Garcia not gone down.
Green Bay Packers
Last Year: 10-6, lost to Vikings in Wildcard Round
This Year: Is this Brett Favre’s swan song season? If it is, he will go out on a downer. He lost his 2 best lineman, Gs Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera, and his best defender, S Darren Sharper. The Pack defense was bad last year and it won’t get any better. The offense should also be worse with the loss of the two linemen mentioned earlier.
Summation: Its gonna be a long year in Title Town. 6 wins is about the max for this team.
Chicago Bears
Last Year: 5-11, no playoffs
This Year: The Bears wasted a very good defense by having an offense reminiscent of a team from the 1920s. While those teams failed to pass because it was illegal, this Bears team simply lacked anyone capable of throwing the ball. Unless Kyle Orton develops into a solid QB (which he may down the road), expect more of the same this year. The Bears did add WR Muhsin Muhammad to improve the passing attack. However, Muhammad is coming off his best season and will be 32 when the new season starts. Even if Joe Montana or Otto Graham was throwing him the ball, a reasonable decline would be expected. With unproven Kyle Orton and possibly some high school kids lining up under center, expect him to catch under 50 passes.
Summation: The Bears defense will continue to be solid and improve under 2nd year coach Lovie Smith, but the offense will prevent this team from contending. Unless Kyle Orton suddenly becomes Sid Luckman, the Bears will mimic last years 5 wins.
Philadelphia Eagles
Last Year: 13-3, lost Super Bowl to Patriots
This Year: The Terrell Owens media circus will not have an adverse affect on this team. Remember, they played in 3 straight NFC Championship games, and made the playoffs 4 years in a row before he came to town. If TO plays, the Eagles offense will be upper-echelon like last year, and if he doesn’t play it will be mediocre. Either way, with the defense and special teams they have, the Eagles will handily win the NFC East.
Summation: The Eagles win 12 or 13 games, their 5th straight NFC East title, and play in their 5th straight NFC Championship game. However, they will be 1-4 in title games after this season.
Dallas Cowboys
Last Year: 6-10, no playoffs
This Year: The Cowboys added the aging lead-footed Drew Bledsoe to replace the aged lead-footed Vinny Testaverde. Call the QB situation a wash. RB Julius Jones looks to improve in his second season, and I see no reason to believe that he won’t. However, it’s the defense that must improve the most if this team is to contend. They finished 28th in points allowed last year. That won’t get the job done whether Bill Parcells or Sam Wyche is coaching your team. To improve the D in the off-season, Dallas added DT Jason Ferguson and CB Aaron Glenn. Dallas can also expect improvement from youngsters Roy Williams and Terrance Newman in the secondary.
Summation: While Drew Bledsoe is no great shakes at QB, he is not Craig Krenzel either. The Dallas defense and running attack will compensate for the average passing game. Expect Dallas to win 9-10 games and grab a wildcard playoff spot.
New York Giants
Last Year: 6-10, no playoffs
This Year: The Giants are an intriguing team. The bolstered their defense in the off-season by adding LB Antonio Pierce and DT Kendrick Clancy. They will also get a full season’s work from Michael Strahan (hopefully) who played in 8 games last year before going down with an injury. The Giants also gave Eli Manning another big weapon in WR Plaxico Burress.
Summation: The defense should be vastly improved over last seasons’ model, so it all comes down to Eli. I for one am not sold on a marked improvement for him this year. Peyton improved dramatically in his second year, but take one second to ponder the numbers.
Peyton’s Rookie Year: 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 26 TDs, 28 INTs
Eli’s Rookie Year: 5.3 yards per pass attempt, 6 TDs, 9 INTs
It should also be noted that 2004 was one of the best (if not the best) environments for passing ever.
Peyton’s 2nd Year: 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 26 TDs, 15 INTs
Peyton put up much better numbers in an offensive environment slightly less conducive for passing. Eli would have to improve a great deal in his 2nd year to even equal his brother’s rookie year. Eli will struggle again this year, but the Giants D will carry them to 6 wins and a tumultuous off-season where they will be forced to decide what to do with Eli.
Washington Redskins
Last Year: 6-10, no playoffs
This Year: The Redskins defense was downright scary last year, but so was the offense (in a bad way). The defense suffered significant losses in the form of LB Antonio Pierce and CB Fred Smoot. The Redskins did add WR Santana Moss to the receiving corps, but he is not much of an upgrade (if any) over Laveranues Coles.
Summation: Unless Patrick Ramsey or 1st round pick Jason Campbell miraculously develops, or Mark Brunell makes a Lazarus-like rise from the dead, expect the Washington offense to be anemic just like last season. The defense should regress a little from its fantastic performance in 2004. All told, expect 5 wins, and a very frustrated Joe Gibbs at season’s end.
NFC South Projected Order of Finish:
Carolina Panthers
Last Year: 7-9, no playoffs
This Year: Don’t look at the overall record, but look at the point differential and you will see a developing trend.
2002: -44
2003: +21
2004: +16
The 2003 Panthers were a historic fluke. They won several regular season games they shouldn’t have, and then exploited a weak NFC and a terrible Mike Martz coaching decision to play in the Super Bowl. The 2004 version was almost just as good as the 2003 version, but was much less lucky. This is the year the Panthers finally play like the team many thought they were in 2003. The addition of G Mike Wahle from Green Bay instantly improves the running game, the bread and butter of John Fox’s system. On defense, Carolina strengthened its secondary by adding CB Ken Lucas.
Summation: The Panthers will roll to an NFC South division title barring an historic run of injuries similar to what they suffered through last year. Pencil them in for 11 or 12 wins and a return to the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Year: 5-11, no playoffs
This Year: The Tampa Bay Bucs are every statistician’s enigma. In 2003, they outscored their opponents by 37 points and finished 7-9, and last year they were only outscored by 3 points yet finished 5-11. In my humble opinion, their luck has to turn. Although nowhere near as strong as the championship unit of 2002, the defense is still good. They finished 9th in points allowed last season. The addition of Chris Hovan should bolster the defensive line. The offense should be just as good if not better. Brian Griese played surprisingly well at quarterback last season and the maturation of WR Michael Clayton should improve the passing game. The running game should also get a shot in the arm with the drafting of Carnell ‘Cadillac’ Williams. We’ll see if his 8 cylinders are firing in line.
Summation: Tampa Bay has their luck turn around somewhat. They will win 9-10 games and claim the last wildcard spot alongside Dallas.
Atlanta Falcons
Last Year: 11-5, lost to Eagles in NFC Championship game
This Year: Don’t be fooled by the 2004 incarnation of the Atlanta Falcons. Yes they won 11 games, but they only outscored their opponents by 3 points on the season. Yes they dominated the Rams in the playoffs. But these were not your older brother’s Rams. They were themselves a flawed 8-8 team that had just won a road playoff game the week before. Give Atlanta credit for not resting on their laurels. They added depth to their defense with the additions of LB Ike Reese and Edgerton Hartwell. The Falcons must hope their receiving corps improves or Michael Vick will have many 10 for 25 passing lines in the box score.
Summation: Atlanta may actually improve this season, but it will not be reflected in their record. They will win 7-8 games and contend for a wildcard spot, but ultimately fall short.
New Orleans Saints:
Last Year: 8-8, no playoffs
This Year: You know a 3-13 or 4-12 season could do this team some good. Every year under Jim Haslett, the Saints finish between 7-9 wins, the epitome of mediocrity. And then the following year, with little crucial roster tinkering the Saints believe they will finally ‘put it together’ and break through. And continue ad infinitum. However, this could be the year they finally implode, and incidentally set them up for contention a few years down the road.
Summation: The Saints again kept most of their skill position personnel intact, and added some low-key players on defense (S Dwight Smith and LB Levar Fisher). Normally I would expect another 7-9 or 8-8 season, but with the natural disaster in the gulf coast, the Saints will be a nomad team the entire year. They will play exactly zero home games, and what amounts to 16 road contests. The 1985 Bears would struggle with that schedule. The Saints will win 4 or 5 games, and after the season Haslett will be fired, the roster will be blown up, and the Saints will try to build a winner with new parts.
NFC West Projected Order of Finish
Seattle Seahawks
Last Year: 9-7, lost to Rams in Wildcard Round
This Year: Read this article. If you’re too impatient, I will try to explain it with not so eloquent verbiage. The jist of it is that teams that perform poorly on 3rd down compared to 1st and 2nd downs (on offense or defense) one year tend to progress to the mean the next year (and vice-versa). Confused? The Seahawks were bad on 3rd downs offensively compared to 1st and 2nd downs. Therefore, they should improve this season simply by regression (or in this case progression) to the mean. Everyone’s Super Bowl darkhorse from last season is my Super Bowl favorite this season.
Summation: If you are a betting man, bet heavily on Seattle winning this weak division. I mean really, who else will win it? Would you really lay money on the Arizona Cardinals? And the Rams’ defense has more holes than a Pawley’s Island hammock. Seattle rolls in this division. They will win 12 or 13 games. Once in the playoffs, Mike Holmgren will lead his 2nd franchise to the Super Bowl where they will meet and defeat the Kansas City Chiefs.
Arizona Cardinals:
Last Year: 6-10, no playoffs
This Year: The Cardinals added former MVP Kurt Warner to their offense in the off-season. However, this is not the Kurt Warner of 99-01. Warner fooled many with his performance last season. It looked efficient; almost 63% completion percentage, 6 TDs and only 4 INTs, but dig a little deeper. He was sacked 39 times in only 10 games (contrast this to 2001 when he was sacked 38 times in 16 games) and he fumbled 12 times. Warner is a shadow of his former self. He either holds on to the ball too long and takes a sack, or doesn’t hold onto the ball and fumbles. That being said, Arizona will still contend for a playoff spot in 2005 thanks to its young receivers (Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin), young running back (J.J. Arrington) and improved defense. The Cardinals added DE Chike Okeafor, S Robert Griffith, and LB Orlando Huff to the unit in the off-season.
Summation: Warner will provide enough solid surface stats (completion %, good TD/INT ratio) to make people believe he is helping Arizona win. In actuality it will be the defense and young skill position players that help Arizona improve. Expect 8 wins and a season of wildcard contention that will fall just short.
St. Louis Rams
Last Year: 8-8, lost to Falcons in Divisional Round
This Year: These are not the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ Rams. They are far from it. They are not even the best offense in Missouri. Care to hazard a guess where this offensive dynamo finished in points scored last season? 19th. They were mediocre at best on offense. They were also outscored by 73 points on the year so they were a bit lucky to go 8-8. Also, don’t forget that one of their victories was over an Eagles team that was resting its starters in Week 16. These guys are living off their rep and have been doing so for several years. They added LBs Dexter Coakley and Chris Claiborne to improve a defense that was mediocre on good days and downright appalling on bad days last season.
Summation: Marshall Faulk is in decline, but should be replaced admirably be Stephen Jackson. However, even if Jackson performs at his absolute peak, do you really believe he will be equal to Faulk circa 99-01? No way. Isaac Bruce will also suffer another year of decline as he is now 33. The defense may improve a little, but that will be offset by offensive regression and a stronger division. The Rams will win 6 games and Mike Martz will be on the hotseat.
San Francisco 49ers
Last Year: 2-14, unmitigated disaster
This Year: Why does Dennis Erickson coach pro football? Its obvious he sucks at it. Stay in college and build moribund programs like Oregon St. into national powers. Anyway, the 49ers don’t appear to be much better this year than last. The 49ers do get stud LB Julian Peterson back after he missed 11 games last year with an injury. However, his presence alone will not be enough to save a unit that finished last in points allowed last season.
Summation: This will be a bad year for the 49ers. There is hope though. Alex Smith may turn out to be their QB of the future. Other than that, expect 3 or 4 wins at the most from this squad.
NFC North Projected Order of Finish
Minnesota Vikings
Last Year: 8-8, lost to Eagles in Divisional Round
This Year: The Vikings lost WR Randy Moss this off-season, but should more than make up for that with the addition of several playmakers on defense. New CB Fred Smoot will team with holdover Antoine Winfield to form a solid coverage unit. LBs Sam Cowart and Napoleon Harris, DT Pat Williams, and S Darren Sharper will also vastly improve the Vikings porous defense. Daunte Culpepper will continue to anchor a solid offense that will slow down a bit with the loss of Randy Moss.
Summation: In what looks to be a down year for the NFC North, the Vikings will cruise to the title with an 11 win season.
Detroit Lions
Last Year: 6-10, no playoffs
This Year: Detroit was going to be a wildcard team until they lost QB Jeff Garcia to a broken leg in the preseason. Charles Rogers and the Williams boyz (Mike and Roy) should still make for an exciting group of receivers until Rogers breaks his collarbone again. Kevin Jones should also be a stud in the backfield. The only hole on this team is at QB. Joey Harrington has not performed like a 1st Round pick in any of his 3 seasons. For this reason, I thought Jeff Garcia would take the reigns and lead the Lions to the playoffs.
Summation: Good skill position players, average defense, and a good coach. The only thing missing is a QB who can get the skill players the ball. That is what will kill Detroit this season. The Lions will win 7 games and wonder what could have been had Garcia not gone down.
Green Bay Packers
Last Year: 10-6, lost to Vikings in Wildcard Round
This Year: Is this Brett Favre’s swan song season? If it is, he will go out on a downer. He lost his 2 best lineman, Gs Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera, and his best defender, S Darren Sharper. The Pack defense was bad last year and it won’t get any better. The offense should also be worse with the loss of the two linemen mentioned earlier.
Summation: Its gonna be a long year in Title Town. 6 wins is about the max for this team.
Chicago Bears
Last Year: 5-11, no playoffs
This Year: The Bears wasted a very good defense by having an offense reminiscent of a team from the 1920s. While those teams failed to pass because it was illegal, this Bears team simply lacked anyone capable of throwing the ball. Unless Kyle Orton develops into a solid QB (which he may down the road), expect more of the same this year. The Bears did add WR Muhsin Muhammad to improve the passing attack. However, Muhammad is coming off his best season and will be 32 when the new season starts. Even if Joe Montana or Otto Graham was throwing him the ball, a reasonable decline would be expected. With unproven Kyle Orton and possibly some high school kids lining up under center, expect him to catch under 50 passes.
Summation: The Bears defense will continue to be solid and improve under 2nd year coach Lovie Smith, but the offense will prevent this team from contending. Unless Kyle Orton suddenly becomes Sid Luckman, the Bears will mimic last years 5 wins.
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
College Weekend Wrap-Up
Well, that didn't go so well. I went 2-4 in the inaugural Six-Pack and missed all of my upset picks (by a wide margin). To say I've been humbled would be an understatement. But alas, I will carry on. I will pat myself on the back for one thing: Tennessee struggled at home to beat UAB, and if you've been a regular reader, you knew Tennessee was the team I had pegged as most overrated. Now, onto this weeks winners and losers.
Winners:
The ACC: Clemson hung on at home to beat Texas A&M and Georgia Tech went into hostile territory and knocked Auburn around. Losses by Wake and Duke, and a narrow victory by Maryland notwithstanding, the ACC looks like more than a 3 pony show this season.
The Mountain West: TCU won at Oklahoma, Utah continued its winning ways at home against a solid Arizona team, and Air Force scratched out a close win over Washington at a 'neutral' site. Combine that with good showings by Colorado St. against Colorado and by Wyoming against Florida and you have the makings of a quality mid-major league. It also begs the question, is the Mountain West more deserving of a BCS bid than the Big East?
Losers:
The Big 12: Kansas, Kansas St., Nebraska, Oklahoma St., and Iowa St. all opened with lackluster wins over vastly inferior competition. Whatever happened to the days when Nebraska and Kansas St. would open the season with 63-7 victories? Add to that losses by Oklahoma and Texas A&M and you have a conference that may be down this year.
Miami Special Teams: This is one of those games where the loser outplayed the victor by a significant margin. Florida St. averaged a meager 2.7 yards per pass attempt and still won thanks to shoddy special teams play on the part of the Hurricanes.
Winners:
The ACC: Clemson hung on at home to beat Texas A&M and Georgia Tech went into hostile territory and knocked Auburn around. Losses by Wake and Duke, and a narrow victory by Maryland notwithstanding, the ACC looks like more than a 3 pony show this season.
The Mountain West: TCU won at Oklahoma, Utah continued its winning ways at home against a solid Arizona team, and Air Force scratched out a close win over Washington at a 'neutral' site. Combine that with good showings by Colorado St. against Colorado and by Wyoming against Florida and you have the makings of a quality mid-major league. It also begs the question, is the Mountain West more deserving of a BCS bid than the Big East?
Losers:
The Big 12: Kansas, Kansas St., Nebraska, Oklahoma St., and Iowa St. all opened with lackluster wins over vastly inferior competition. Whatever happened to the days when Nebraska and Kansas St. would open the season with 63-7 victories? Add to that losses by Oklahoma and Texas A&M and you have a conference that may be down this year.
Miami Special Teams: This is one of those games where the loser outplayed the victor by a significant margin. Florida St. averaged a meager 2.7 yards per pass attempt and still won thanks to shoddy special teams play on the part of the Hurricanes.
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