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Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 32-38
Iowa +6.5 Oregon
Does Iowa have a chance to sneak into the College Football Playoff? If they win here, we certainly have to consider it. Their next game would be a challenge at Southern Cal, but after that they host Michigan State and then travel to Nebraska to face the Cornhuskers and a backup quarterback. The odds are against an Iowa playoff bid, but if they win out, I think one is practically guaranteed. Can the Hawkeyes win the first leg of that four game parlay? I think so. Iowa is easily the second best team Oregon has played this season (after Indiana) and best team they have faced on the road (Northwestern, Penn State, and Rutgers are your other contenders). Oregon has looked the part with dominant performances against a less than stellar schedule, but I think Iowa will be able to drag them to hell much like they did Indiana a few weeks ago. The Hawkeyes held Indiana to their lowest point total on the season and I think the Iowa defense will force Dante Moore into a few bad decisions. If Iowa falls behind, they have no chance, as their offense, while better than previous incarnations, is still antiquated. But if they can make this a game played in the teens or low twenties (as the over/under total of 40.5 suggests it will be), they can not only cover, but win this game outright.
Connecticut +9.5 Duke
Connecticut has already beaten one ACC team this season and taken another to overtime. Why can't they beat a Duke team that may be looking ahead to the rest of their conference schedule? Duke has already dropped two non-conference games, including one at a quality Group of Five opponent (Tulane). Plus, the Blue Devils are probably a little overvalued after their victory at Clemson last week. Duke was outgained by over 100 yards and nearly a full yard per play, but used a kickoff return touchdown, an insane fourth down performance (five for five), and an egregious pass interference call to steal a win from the Tigers. Duke is now 4-1 in the ACC with games against Virginia, North Carolina, and Wake Forest remaining on the schedule. The Blue Devils should be favored in all those games and thus have the inside track to the ACC Championship Game. The Huskies may not have their full attention. Meanwhile, with just two games reaming against Air Force and Florida Atlantic after this one, I expect the Huskies to treat this like their Super Bowl. Even a late two-score lead by Duke is not safe thanks to their poor defense and the solid Connecticut offense. The Huskies have lost three games this season by thirteen total points (all on the road and all in overtime) and have only lost at home once since the start of 2024. That loss came to an ACC team, but was by just three points. I expect a similar result on Saturday.
LSU +9.5 Alabama
Alabama desperately needed a bye week after facing four consecutive ranked opponents (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee) and South Carolina (ranked thirteenth in the preseason). While Alabama won all five, they were less than impressive on a per play basis. In those five games, Alabama was outgained by 0.19 yards per play. They didn't play bad, especially after adjusting for the quality of competition, but they were not dominant either. I have been tracking per play numbers in conference games since 2005 and no team has finished with an unblemished conference record while posting a negative per play differential. Obviously, Alabama is just a touch more than halfway through their SEC schedule. They could lose one of their final three games or their performance could improve and push them toward the black. While Alabama was busy winning all their league games, LSU dropped three of four and decided they had endured enough of carpetbagger Brian Kelly. I expect LSU to get the patented interim coach bump in this spot. If the Tigers lose to Alabama, who knows how motivated they will be over the final three games of the schedule, but that is a problem for future gamblers to handicap. For now, I see a team with a better per play differential in the SEC catching almost double digits. Alabama will probably find a way to pull this one out, but I expect a one-score game.
Wake Forest +6.5 Virginia
I usually shy away from backing or fading the ole alma mater, but I think the Demon Deacons are a good play on Saturday night. For starters, I think Wake Forest is underrated after their abysmal showing in Tallahassee last week. The defense allowed a season worst in points (42), yardage (421), and yards per play (7.39). However, that is not nearly as indicative of how good the defense has been this season. Really, the fact that this unit may drag an offense led by Robby Ashford to a bowl game is something to behold. Secondly, Virginia is not nearly as good as their national ranking (twelfth in the current AP Poll) would suggest. The Cavaliers have won their last five games by eight (in overtime), three (also in overtime), two, one (also in overtime), and ten (though spiritually three) points. They have also been outgained in four of five games. The rent is going to come due for the Cavaliers at some point this season. As a word of caution, if Wake Forest falls behind by more than ten points, their offense is so bad, it is probably a lost cause. However, I think the Wake defense keeps them in this game as they seek to hand Virginia their first (technical) conference loss.
California +20.5 Louisville
A few weeks ago, Cal was 5-2 and with their upcoming schedule, a legitimate contender in the wide open ACC race. Two losses later, they are now 5-4 and in danger of missing out on a bowl altogether. Meanwhile, with all the chaos going on around them, Louisville has a great chance to get to the ACC Championship Game for the second time in three years under Jeff Brohm. Brohm also guided the Boilermakers to the Big 10 Championship Game in 2022, meaning on a personal level, he is shooting for three in four. While handicapping this game, I felt both really good and really bad about taking Cal. First the good. The Bears have a bad offensive line and a talented but young quarterback. If a team can get in the backfield and harass Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (easy for me to say), the Cal offense has almost no recourse. Fortunately, for Cal, Louisville does not generate a great deal of sacks (just sixteen on the season). Now the bad. Cal cannot stop the run. And Louisville has discovered a great run game. On the season, the Cardinals are averaging over five yards per carry and in their past two games, they have churned out over 550 yards on the ground. I'm sticking with the Bears for a few reasons. Number one, Louisville may not be as motivated to take on Cal as they will be for the next three weeks when they face Clemson, SMU, and Kentucky. The Clemson game has lost a lot of luster with the Tigers' struggles, but Clemson has a much better Q rating than Cal. Secondly, if Louisville runs the ball a lot, even successfully, that means the clock should keep moving. Finally, this marks one of the largest point spreads Jeff Brohm has been a part of as a head coach against a power conference opponent. His teams at Purdue and Louisville have been favored by three scores three times. They are 2-1 straight up in those games, but 0-3 ATS with each game being decided by a eight points or less.
UCLA -1.5 Nebraska
Last week Nebraska lost at home to a Big 10 team from California and in the process lost their starting quarterback. Now they must travel to the Golden State to face the Big 10's other California team. Who could have imagined the Bruins and Cornhuskers would one day be conference opponents the last time they faced off in 2013 in the return game of an intriguing non-conference series? Unfortunately for Matt Rhule, his quarterback situation means the Cornhuskers will once again likely wheeze to the finish. In two and a half years at the helm in Lincoln, Rhule has guided the Cornhuskers to a respectable 14-7 record against FBS opponents in the months of August, September, and October. However, after the calendar shifts to November his charges have crumbled, posting a 1-8 mark including last week's loss to Southern Cal. That is something that has haunted Nebraska since Bo Pelini was ousted. Since 2015, under three different full time coaches and one interim, Nebraska is a mediocre 37-40 versus FBS teams between August and October. In the month of November, they are 12-30. Yikes. Obviously, the schedule stiffens in November as there are no cupcake non-conference games (after all the Cornhuskers do not play in the SEC), but I already somewhat accounted for that by removing all FCS games from the early season record. Perhaps, it is a lack of depth that has caused their November swoon. Whatever the reason, I think it continues as the Cornhuskers travel west to face a UCLA team that was embarrassed in their last game and is coming off a bye.
Sam Houston State +20.5 Oregon State
Sometimes you have to back an ugly dog if the number is right and they don't come much uglier than Sam Houston. The Bearkats are one of two winless teams in FBS (along with Massachusetts). One season after winning ten games, Sam Houston is staring down the barrel of 0-12. And they happen to play in arguably the worst FBS conference (Conference USA). However, two weeks ago, Oregon State was also winless. The Beavers blasted an FCS team after firing their coach and then beat their former and future Pac-12 mate Washington State last week for their first win against an FBS team in more than eleven months. In fact, the Beavers last two FBS wins have come against Washington State. They have not beaten an FBS team based outside of Pullman since their victory against Colorado State last October. Oregon State beat Washington State despite gaining less than 200 yards. The Beavers are better than the Bearkats and should win their third straight game, but they are averaging under 17 points per game against FBS opponents. If Sam Houston has any pulse on offense they should do enough to get this cover.
