Wednesday, March 17, 2021

2021 Bracket Advice: Unbeaten Teams in the NCAA Tournament

As many college basketball fans know, no team has won the NCAA tournament while finishing unbeaten since Indiana in the nation's bicentennial year of 1976. Since the Hoosiers cut down the nets in The Spectrum 45 years ago, five other teams have entered the NCAA tournament without a loss, including Gonzaga this season. How did those other four teams fare and how does Gonzaga compare to them? Glad you asked. We'll start chronologically, beginning with Indiana State.  
The Sycamores entered the 1979 season with moderate expectations. They finished a game behind Creighton in the Missouri Valley Conference in 1978, and lost a tight game to the Blue Jays in the conference tournament final. The Sycamores were relegated to the NIT where they lost in the second round to Rutgers. In the offseason, their head coach, Bob King dealt with some health issues and the head coaching duties were turned over to Bill Hodges. Despite not being ranked in the preseason AP Poll, Hodges adept coaching and some minor contributions from Larry Bird helped the Sycamores win all their regular season games. They were rewarded with a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament and advanced all the way to the championship game where they were dispatched by Magic Johnson and Michigan State. Despite their unbeaten record, Indiana State was probably a little overrated. Their SRS was eleventh in 1979, which while good, is not dominant. After Indiana State, the nation would have to wait twelve years until another team entered the NCAA tournament without a loss. 
While Indiana State did not even make the tournament the year before their unbeaten regular season, UNLV began the 90's with a bang, routing Duke in the NCAA final. With the bulk of their roster returning in 1991, the Rebels were the number one team in the AP Poll in 1991. The Rebels did not play a single game decided by less than ten points until their second round NCAA Tournament game against Georgetown. The Rebels appeared to be well on their way to becoming one of the most dominant champions in NCAA Tournament history, but Duke upset them in the national semifinal 79-77. Despite the loss, UNLV was the most dominant team according to SRS in 1991, finishing nearly four points better than second place Arkansas. After UNLV's run, it would be nearly a quarter century until another team finished the regular season without a loss.
Wichita State, fresh off a Cinderella Final Four run in 2013, opened the 2014 season solidly in the middle of the AP Poll. While they were not nearly as dominant as UNLV in 1991, the selection committed rewarded their regular season brilliance and gave them a number one seed. Unfortunately, waiting in the second round, was a talented, but underachieving Kentucky team. The Wildcats upset the Shockers in the second round and eventually advanced to the national final. Speaking of Kentucky...
Prior to this season, the last team to enter the NCAA Tournament unbeaten was Kentucky in 2015. After advancing to the national final in 2014, the Wildcats were the preseason number one in the AP Poll in 2015. They were a wire-to-wire number one in the poll, and were a heavy favorite once the NCAA Tournament commenced. After cakewalks in their first three NCAA Tournament games, the Wildcats showed some vulnerability in a tight victory against Notre Dame in the regional final. After dispatching the Irish, the Wildcats were upset in the national semifinal by Wisconsin. Like UNLV a quarter century before, the Wildcats still rated as the top team in SRS by about four points. 

So how does Gonzaga stack up against that quartet?
No shade to Gonzaga, but I don't think its a coincidence that four of the last five teams to enter the NCAA Tournament unbeaten have played in mid-major conferences. However, it should be noted that the Missouri Valley in 1979, the Big West in 1991, and the West Coast Conference this season, all sent multiple teams to the tournament. Other West Coast Conference teams don't have the talent of Gonzaga, but at the same time, the West Coast Conference is not the Patriot League or the Southwestern Athletic Conference. By SRS, Gonzaga compares pretty favorably to the dominant teams on this list. They are currently first in this metric, by about a point and a half over Illinois. While this does not guarantee they will be around in the Final Four, it does objectively mean they are very good. They were also the top ranked team in the preseason AP Poll, which is a good proxy for talent. A lot of randomness can happen in the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't hesitate to select Gonzaga as my champion when filling out a bracket.

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