A third straight 5-2 mark has us red hot heading into the home stretch. When will regression catch us in its grasp? Perhaps this week. Home teams in BOLD.
*Editor's Note: The initial post included the Akron +14 Buffalo game. That game has been postponed due to weather and as of Friday, I am not sure it will be played. Thus, I have added another game. Enjoy.*
Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 43-34
Central Florida needs one win in their final two games to lock up a spot in the AAC Championship Game. With a rudderless South Florida on deck, the odds are certainly in their favor. Fresh of a huge road victory against Tulane and before the War on I-4 clash with the Bulls, could the Knights be positioned in the dreaded sandwich spot against Navy? I think so. Navy has already clinched a third consecutive losing season, but they have been feisty, especially in conference play. The Midshipmen have covered their three other road conference games this season, despite catching double digits in each one. They even won one outright. Navy's pass defense is very bad, so the Knights will hit some big plays in the passing game. However, Navy has a fantastic run defense. They held Notre Dame to 66 yards on 34 carries last week. Once we correct for the accounting errors college football has with rushing numbers and remove the six sacks Navy accumulated, they still held the Irish below 100 yards on the ground at a little over three yards per carry. Service academies never quit (witness Navy's comeback in a cover last week against Notre Dame), so even if the Midshipmen get down in the first half or late in the game, the backdoor should be wide open. You never want to pick a game because you think a team can get in the backdoor, but it does help to have a team that won't pack it in if they are trailing by a big number in the second half. One other things to keep in mind is that this game kicks relatively early (11 AM). It may only play a minor role, but the patrons of the Bounce House won't have an extra hour to get lathered up. Take Navy to continue being a pest although not a big enough one to win the game outright.
Auburn -5.5 Western Kentucky
This line seems oddly low considering the pedigree of both programs. While Auburn is likely to finish with a losing record and Western Kentucky has an outside shot at their conference title, there is still a wide gulf in the talent level of these teams. If you back Western Kentucky, you have to be of the opinion that Auburn will lack motivation. Early returns on interim coach Carnell Williams, suggest that will not be the case. I don't know if Williams is in contention for the full time job, and if I were an Auburn fan, I would not want him to be. His 'ra-ra' high energy coaching style might get old in normal times, but for a team in Auburn's situation, he has been the perfect stopgap. They overcame a big deficit on the road at Mississippi State in his first game and then beat Texas A&M for the first time since 2019 last week. Western Kentucky has won an SEC road game before, driving the final nail in the coffin of the Chad Morris era three seasons ago. While the circumstances may seem similar on the surface, I think Auburn will leave it all on the field in their final home game of the season. Plus, you are getting Auburn at an early Black Friday discount. Since 2004, the Tigers have not been favored by fewer than ten points against a Group of Five or non-BCS opponent at home. Take the Tigers to cruise to their second victory in a vintage Cadillac.
Iowa +2.5 Minnesota
After opening conference play 1-3, the Iowa Hawkeyes have won three in a row and have a decent shot at returning to Indianapolis for the Big 10 Championship Game. Based on their results against Michigan and Ohio State this season, their odds of actually winning the Big 10 title are infinitesimal, but another division crown would be a nice accomplishment, especially considering how bad the offense has been at times this season. The defense of course, has been fantastic. Michigan and Ohio State combined to score 81 points on the Hawkeyes. Their other eight opponents have combined to score 58, with a high 13. Minnesota has dominated the cupcakes on their schedule with six of their seven wins coming by at least 27 points. However, most of those teams are very bad. The lone exception is an average Michigan State team and if you are being generous, a mediocre Rutgers team. The Gophers have lost to the three teams with winning records they have faced (Illinois, Purdue, and Penn State). They have averaged less than fourteen points per game in those three contests. How many points are they going to score against Iowa? The Hawkeyes have won the past seven in this series and Kirk Ferentz is 17-6 straight up against Minnesota (17-4 since 2001). One college football memory that sticks out in my mind is Iowa fans tearing down the goalposts in the Metrodome when the Hawkeyes beat Minnesota in 2002 to clinch a share of the Big 10 title. That Iowa team actually had a Heisman candidate...on offense! Look it up kids if you don't believe me. I don't think goalposts will come down, but Iowa will inch closer to a division title.
Arkansas State +6 Texas State
This otherwise inconsequential Sun Belt games between two losing teams playing out the string does have a bit of intrigue. Both quarterbacks in this game, James Blackman of Arkansas State and Layne Hatcher of Texas State, played for Arkansas State last season. Blackman started the first six games with Hatcher seeing action in all but one of Blackman's starts. Blackman was lost for the year in the sixth game and Hatcher started all the games in the second half of the year. Both quarterbacks were pretty mediocre by Group of Five standards, but the defense was horrendous and the team won just a single game against FBS opponents. Hatcher transferred to Texas State and has played at about the same level. Blackman has played slightly better at Arkansas State, but neither has put up great numbers. Texas State looked like they might be a Sun Belt sleeper in early October when they upset Appalachian State, but they have lost four straight and head coach Jake Spavital is likely on the way out when the season ends. Arkansas State ended their own four-game skid last week when they edged Massachusetts. That must be why this spread is nearly up to a touchdown. I can't think of any other reason why Texas State would be such a big favorite in a conference game. Texas State has won the past two contests in this series, but in their nine previous meetings as Sun Belt opponents, Arkansas State has been favored in each one. That is a solid trend of the betting market deeming Arkansas State the better team. I think the market has swung too far toward Texas State. Take the Red Wolves and the points.
Wyoming +14 Boise State
When Craig Bohl came to Wyoming prior to the 2014 season, I expected him to have success at Laramie. And he was sort of delivered. By historical standards, his run has been successful. Counting 2022, the Cowboys have been bowl eligible in the past six non-pandemic seasons. However, they have only played in one Mountain West Championship Game in his tenure. And they were captained by a generational talent that season. This season, the Cowboys have a chance to get to a second conference title game. All they have to do is beat Boise State at home and then win at Fresno State next week. Piece of cake. Both teams have overcome rough first halves to get here. Wyoming began the year with an embarrassing performance at Illinois and was 3-3 halfway through the season. They have won four in a row since. Meanwhile, Boise State began the year 2-2 and fired their offensive coordinator. They have since won five of six, with the lone loss coming in a non-conference game against BYU. While Boise has dominated their opponents in that stretch, their lone road game against a competent foe came against Air Force. The Broncos were actually underdogs in that game, but got out to a big lead and held on to win 19-14. The Falcons were able to shut down the Boise running game (held them to 115 yards and under three yards per carry). I think Wyoming will be able to pull off a similar feat. Boise's freshman quarterback Taylen Green has played well, but the Broncos don't rely on their passing offense to win games (108th nationally in passing attempts). Wyoming also eschews the pass (123rd nationally in passing attempts) so that should mean a lot of runs and a running clock. Wyoming is 6-2 ATS against Boise under Craig Bohl, and in the past five games the Cowboys have contained Boise's offense, holding them to under twenty four points per game. I expect another low-scoring game, so take the dog catching two touchdowns.
UCLA +2.5 Southern Cal
The Battle of Los Angeles is not just a Rage Against the Machine album anymore. With the Bruins and Trojans both enjoying good seasons, this is the biggest game in this rivalry since at least 2014 and possibly longer. Southern Cal still has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff and while this matchup lost a little luster with UCLA's loss to Arizona last week, I think that was more about the Bruins potentially looking ahead to this spot. Rest assured, the Trojans will have their full attention. While Southern Cal has the higher ranking, UCLA has played better on offense and defense in Pac-12 play, leading the Trojans in Net Yards Per Play (1.65 to 0.98) against a slightly tougher Pac-12 schedule. The teams have played five common opponents (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, and Utah) and the Trojans have played Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State. Meanwhile, UCLA has Cal next week, but has played Oregon and Washington. UCLA is 8-5 as a home underdog under Chip Kelly, but they are 4-0 ATS with four outright wins since the start of the 2021 season. This is the spot Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been dreaming of all season. He will put on a show in his final home game against an arch-rival. Take the Bruins and the points.
Colorado State +21.5 Air Force
Jay Norvell's first season at Colorado State has been eerily reminiscent of his first season at Nevada. Five years ago, Norvell took over a Nevada team that had gone 5-7 the previous season, but was hardly at the bottom of the Mountain West. Norvell brought an Air Raid type offense to Reno and the Wolfpack were slow to adjust. They lost their first five games of the year, including one to an FCS team. In those first five games, they averaged twenty points per game. However, over their final seven games, they won three and averaged 34 points per game. Similarly, Norvell took over a Colorado State team that finished 3-9 last season, but was better than its record and has one of the best stadiums in the Group of Five. Once again, he brought over the Air Raid and the team struggled early. The Rams lost their first four games, including an ugly blowout to an FCS team. They managed to beat Norvell's former team in their fifth game, but still only scored 17 points. In fact, the Rams have not scored more than 19 points all season. So how can I justify taking a team that has not scored twenty points all season? Look at the yards, and more specifically, the yards per play. The Rams have averaged north of six yards per play in three of their past four games after failing to reach five yards per play in their first six games. The Rams won't win this game, but they will stay within three touchdowns against a triple option variant service academy.
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