March Madness Intermission: Teams Ranked in the Preseason Poll Missing the NCAA Tournament

For our second of three March Madness posts, I couldn't really think of a something catchy. But the direct title should give you a pretty good indication of what this post is about, so lets jump right in. 

When the NCAA Tournament field was revealed on Sunday night, four teams that were ranked in the preseason AP Poll were not included in the bracket. Those teams were Miami (preseason 13), Arkansas (14), Southern Cal (21), and Villanova (22). So sixteen percent of the preseason AP Poll either did not qualify or were not selected for the NCAA Tournament. How does this stack up historically compared to the other fields since the tournament expanded in 1985? Its roughly average. In the 39 tournaments since the field expanded, 140 teams that were ranked in the preseason AP Poll did not participate in the NCAA Tournament. That comes out to 3.6 teams per season. But which seasons saw the most teams fail to qualify?

2002 saw eight teams that were ranked in the preseason AP Poll miss out on the NCAA Tournament. Two of those teams (Iowa and Saint Joseph's began the year in the top ten). Of course, total number of teams can only give us so much information. At the bottom of the preseason AP Poll, most writers are probably throwing darts or advocating for darkhorse teams they think might be pretty good in the upcoming season. If a team ranked 25th in the preseason AP Poll misses the tournament, thats not a big whiff. But if a preseason number one is relegated to the NIT, well that seems like a big deal. One way to account for this is via 'Poll Points'. For the preseason top 25, we award more points for better rankings. The team ranked first receives 25 Poll Points, second 24 Poll Points, third 23 Poll Points, and so on until the team ranked 25th receives a solitary Poll Point. Using this methodology, what years saw the most combined preseason Poll Points miss the NCAA Tournament?

This list looks pretty similar to the previous one with 1997 and 2007 replacing 1993 and 2023. If you're curious, 2024 was unremarkable in terms of Poll Points. The four teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll accumulated 34 total Poll Points. 

Before we leave, lets give the pollsters some credit for years they nailed it with the preseason poll. In three instances since the field expanded, each team ranked in the preseason AP Poll ended up playing in the NCAA tournament. 

1986 and 1988 have asterisks because the preseason AP Poll only included twenty teams those seasons. The poll would not expand to include 25 teams until 1990. Therefore, the dawn of Y2K ranks as the pollsters most accurate preseason prognostication.