March Madness Intermission: High Seed, Mediocre Conference Record

Before we get started, here is a little peek behind the curtain. I have a full time day job, so I begin researching and writing these posts in January and February in the hopes they will be relevant when the NCAA Tournament rolls around. With the SEC on track to put more than a baker's dozen in the tournament, I figured at least one would meet the criteria of this post: .500 conference record and a seed of 6 or better. Alas, that did not come to pass. So, instead of using this post to make your picks for this year's bracket, file it away for future use. 

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 21 instances of a team finishing with a .500 or worse conference record and earning a top 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. How have those 21 teams performed? Did the rigors of their conference schedule prepare them for a one and done tournament against the best teams from around the country? Those 21 teams are listed chronologically below along with their conference, conference record, seed, and NCAA Tournament performance. The five teams with asterisks won their respective conference tournaments before entering the NCAA Tournament. 

If you just glanced at the overall record and saw 22-20, you might think these teams had average tournament runs. And you would be wrong. One team on this list wrecks the average for everyone. 

Connecticut entered the 2011 Big East Tournament having lost four of five games, to finish 9-9 and tied for ninth with Villanova and Marquette in the conference standings. Still, the league was deep, eventually sending a then unheard of eleven teams to the NCAA Tournament, so the Huskies were not in danger of missing the Big Dance. The opened the conference tournament with easy wins against DePaul and Georgetown, before rolling off a string of close victories against the top teams in the conference (Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville) en route to five wins in five days to secure the Big East's automatic bid. In the NCAA Tournament, they benefitted from some chaos, never facing a top seeded team (beat 2 seed San Diego State in the Regional Semifinal) and outlasting 8 seed Butler in the National Championship Game. If we remove Connecticut, the other 20 teams that finished with mediocre conference records, but entered the NCAA Tournament with a top 6 seed went just 16-20. If we break things down even further, Connecticut stands out as even more of an outlier. 

More than half of the 21 teams lost in the first round. And this is significant, as each team entered their first round game favored. 15 of the 21 (71%) failed to advance past the first weekend, only three won a game in the Sweet 16, and Connecticut was the only team to advance to the Final Four. Here is the first round record of each team by seed.

Compare that with the win percentage of all 3, 4, 5, and 6 seeds in the 64-team era. 

'Normal' teams seeded between 3 and 6 win their first round games nearly 73% of the time. Those teams seeded between 3 and 6 that had mediocre or worse conference records lose more often than they win in the first round! The good book may say that iron sharpens iron, but when it comes to NCAA Tournament performance, the results have been quite dull.