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Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 37-40
Northwestern +12.5 Michigan
All that stands between Michigan and potential 'win and you're in' home game with their arch rivals from Columbus are two road trips to Northwestern and Maryland. Earlier in the year, the trip to College Park looked to be the more challenging of the two, but the wheels have come off the Maryland wagon and Mike Locksley may not even be the coach by the time that game kicks off. Instead, the perennial dust in your brakes, Wildcats appear to be the biggest threat to Michigan's College Football Playoff bid before their clash with the Buckeyes. Northwestern is 5-4 and on the cusp of their second bowl bid in three seasons under head coach David Braun. The Wildcats keep the ball on the ground (57% of their plays have been runs this season) to keep the clock running, reduce possessions, and introduce more variance against teams with greater talent. That formula has not worked against the more elite teams on the schedule (Oregon and Southern Cal beat them by twenty and twenty one points respectively). So, your opinion on this game should come down to where you stand on Michigan. Are the Wolverines an elite team, or merely pretty good? I come down on the side of merely pretty good. The Wolverines have handled their business in Ann Arbor, winning all their games save one by multiple scores. However, the best team they have beaten at home is Washington, which has struggled mightily away from the west coast. On the road, the Wolverines beat Nebraska and Michigan State, but they lost by multiple scores to Oklahoma and Southern Cal. In eight true road games under head coach Sherrone Moore, the Wolverines have score 17, 7, 15, 13, 13, 30, 13, and 31 points. With Northwestern's plodding offense and Bryce Underwood's struggles on the road, I don't expect Michigan to get to 30 points in this game. If the Wildcats can score two touchdowns, they should be able to cover in this spot and if they get some turnover luck, they could pull off the upset and end Michigan's playoff hopes.
Air Force +7.5 Connecticut
Connecticut has put together one of the more underrated seasons in the Group of Five. While the Huskies do not have a conference affiliation and are subsequently are mostly ignored by the national media, they are 7-3 with two victories against the ACC (or the same number Florida State has since the beginning of the 2024 season). They are also unbeaten in regulation, with all three of their losses coming in overtime. With a few more breaks, the Huskies could easily be in contention for the Group of Five bid to the College Football Playoff. That being said, this is a rough spot for them. The Huskies just upset Duke at home for their aforementioned second victory against the ACC. Off that high, they welcome in a service academy fighting for their bowl lives. Air Force needs to win their final three games to become bowl eligible and avoid a second straight losing season. The Falcons have one of the worst pass defenses in the country, which is not a great characteristic to possess when facing Connecticut. Quarterback Joey Fagnado has yet to throw an interception on the season despite throwing the ball nearly 350 times! Wide receiver Skyler Bell is averaging over 100 yards per game and should make at least a handful of big plays against this woeful Air Force pass defense. So why on earth am I backing the Falcons in this spot? As I mentioned, I think this is a bad spot for Connecticut off the big win against Duke. After losing to Syracuse in overtime earlier this season, the Huskies took a road trip to Delaware and lost to the Blue Hens. Then after beating Boston College a month ago, they lost at Rice the next week. Its hard to keep a group of young men focused week to week. The Huskies have also struggled defending the run, which is something Air Force is adept at. Rice runs a variant of the option in their first season under Scott Abell, but they have not run it particularly well. Except of course, when they faced Connecticut. The Owls rushed for 300 yards against the Huskies (season high against an FBS team). I expect a similarly strong performance from the Air Force ground game. Finally, while the Air Force defense has been bad, the team has played almost every opponent tight. The Falcons are just 2-3 in their past five games, but the three losses have all come by exactly three points. The Falcons will be in this game and even if Connecticut has a late double digit lead, the backdoor should be wide open.
West Virginia +11.5 Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham is one of the better coaches in college football. The Sun Devils have endured a spate of injuries in 2025, but Dillingham has Arizona State on the periphery of the Big 12 race. In fact, the Sun Devils are the only team to beat Texas Tech thus far in 2025. Dillingham also engineered an upset of Iowa State in Ames two weeks ago with Jeff Sims as his starting quarterback. Sims rolled up 228 yards on the ground against Iowa State despite no threat of a passing attack. However, in that victory, Arizona State scored only 24 points. And in general, that has been about the peak of Arizona State's point scoring in 2025. In seven games against power conference teams, the Sun Devils have averaged under 22 points per game and have failed to score more than 27 points in any game. If the Sun Devils are unlikely to score thirty points, that makes covering double digits a dicey proposition. West Virginia's pass defense is bad, but their run defense is respectable and I think that makes them a perfect play in this spot. Jeff Sims has been a poor passer and a turnover machine his entire college career. He has had some great rushing performances (108 yards versus Duke in 2020 and 128 yards against North Carolina in 2021), but he has not been able to consistently gash defenses with his legs. West Virginia has won two in a row and played well in three straight games. They close with Texas Tech, so at six losses, they are most likely out of bowl contention, but there are good vibes around the program. As long as Rich Rodriguez can avoid harassing any administrative assistants, this program should trend upward in 2026. I expect the Mountaineers to play well for a fourth consecutive game and give Arizona State all they can handle.
Coastal Carolina +2.5 Georgia Southern
Five game into the season, Coastal Carolina was floundering (get it? flounder is a fish and Coastal Carolina is next to Myrtle Beach). The Chanticleers were 2-3 and had been held to 13 points or less in four of their five games. Whether it was desperation or merely a ploy to lull the rest of the Sun Belt into a false sense of security, Coastal unleashed quarterback Samari Collier on the masses. Collier is what you might call a limited passer (completed half his passes this season), but he is an excellent runner, especially against average or below Sun Belt defenses. Collier has rushed for at least 74 yards in his four starts (all victories for Coastal) and the team is in contention for the Sun Belt East title. James Madison will probably pound them in the final game of the regular season, but we ain't there yet. In Sun Belt play, Coastal Carolina is roughly on par with Georgia Southern in terms on Net YPP. The Chanticleers have been outgained by roughly .32 yards per play (5.49-5.81) while the Eagles have been outgained by .44 yards per play (5.45-5.89). However, in the four games Collier has started, the Chanticleers have outgained their Sun Belt foes by .70 yards per play (6.05 to 5.35). That is more indicative of who and what this Coastal team is. The wrong team is favored here. Coastal still has designs on a Sun Belt title, while Georgia Southern is struggling to get to six wins. Take a chance on the Chants.
Appalachian State +21.5 James Madison
One season after a disappointing (and misleading) 4-4 Sun Belt record in their first season under head coach Bob Chesney, James Madison has just about locked up their first trip to the Sun Belt Championship Game. The Dukes are 8-1 overall and may even be in position to nab a College Football Playoff bid if chaos breaks out in the American Conference race (or less likely, the ACC). Meanwhile, Appalachian State is dangerously close to back to back losing seasons and also missing out on a bowl game for the third time in four seasons. The former FCS power has fallen on hard times after dominating the Sun Belt for their first half decade in the conference. Despite their struggles, they have played well against the run, which is how James Madison prefers to operate (run the ball on 63% of plays). The Mountaineers should be able to slow down their run game and force the Dukes into some unenviable third downs. All those runs should also keep the clock moving which favors the team catching more than three touchdowns. Plus, Appalachian State has played James Madison tough since the Dukes moved up to FBS in 2022. The Mountaineers have won two of three in the series (both as underdogs) and their lone loss came by four points (underdog is 3-0 both straight up and ATS). This is too many points for the Dukes to be laying.
Oklahoma +6.5 Alabama
Last week, I laid out some reasons for fading Alabama against LSU. The pick ended up being wrong, but the concerns with Alabama remain. The Crimson Tide struggle to run the ball and don't do a great job rushing the passer. They have a difference maker at quarterback and some good receivers, but this team has to grind out wins. They are two wins away from an improbable undefeated run through the SEC, especially considering how the year began. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is still in contention for a College Football Playoff bid and with home games against Missouri and LSU remaining after this trip to Tuscaloosa, a victory here would make them more likely than not to make the field. Oklahoma continues to play good defense under Brent Venables, and while the offense is not in the same stratosphere it occupied under Lincoln Riley, it has been serviceable. The Sooners are not going to win many shootouts, but if a team manages to score in the twenties, it is not a lost cause like it was last season. Oklahoma has had a bye week to prepare for this trip and allow John Mateer to continue to convalesce from his hand surgery. Oklahoma should be able to put a scare into the home team and potentially insert themselves into the College Football Playoff discussion.
North Carolina +6.5 Wake Forest
Wake Forest may not have ended, but they severely curtailed our long national nightmare of Virginia potentially making the College Football Playoff. While the Demon Deacons were able to beat Virginia on the scoreboard, the box score was not a thing of beauty. Wake Forest passed for a total of 64 yards on 23 attempts. They ran the ball better than they threw it, but still averaged less than four yards per attempt. Overall, Virginia outgained Wake Forest by more than 100 yards while averaging nearly two more yards per play. The Cavaliers were done in by turnovers (-3 net margin), an inability to score in the redzone (four trips resulted in nine total points), and a special teams touchdown by Wake Forest (punt return). Now after catching nearly a touchdown, Wake returns home where they are now laying a touchdown. The Wake Forest defense is one of the more underrated power conference units, but the offense can charitably be described as existing. In their past three games, of which they have won two, Wake Forest has scored 13, 7, and 16 points. And not they are facing another underrated power conference defense. The Tar Heels struggled in their first few games against power conference opponents under Bill Belichick. Against TCU, UCF, and Clemson, North Carolina allowed an average of 40 points per game and 6.7 yards per play. In their past four games against power conference teams (all after their most recent bye), the Tar Heels have allowed an average of 16 points per game and 3.9 yards per play. North Carolina is rounding into form, at least defensively, under one of the best NFL head coaches of all time and against a team that struggled to move the ball and score on their best days, they are the play catching nearly a full touchdown.
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