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Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 47-54
Saluta to Vetarans Bowl @ Montgomery
Jacksonville State +3.5 Troy
These two Alabama teams have not played since 2001, Troy's first year in FBS. However, they routinely sparred when both were in the Gulf South (Division II) and Southland Conference (FCS, formerly I-AA). I think making this an annual rivalry game would be a good idea for both teams. But I digress. Both the Trojans and Gamecocks lost their respective conference title games, but the margins were quite different. Troy hung with James Madison for three quarters, but could not move the ball against the Dukes and let go of the rope in the fourth. Meanwhile, Troy fell behind Kennesaw State, but took the lead in the fourth quarter only to lose it on a last minute drive by the Owls. The handicap for this game is the rushing attack for the Gamecocks. If the Trojans can stop it, they stand a great shot at winning. But I don't think they can. The Trojans put the clamps on a few teams this season (Nicholls State, Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State, and Southern Miss), but teams with elite run threats at quarterback (James Madison, Old Dominion, and Texas State) all rushed for over 300 yards against the Trojans. I expect Jacksonville State to take similar action as they seek their second ever bowl win.
68 Ventures Bowl @ Mobile
Delaware +3.5 Louisiana-Lafayette
Credit Michael Desormeaux for keeping the Ragin' Cajuns engaged after a 2-6 start to the 2025 season. They could have packed it in and prepared for 2026, but they won their final four games to eke out bowl eligibility. However, the last three came by a combined ten points, so they were a bit fortunate to get back to the postseason. In fact, if we exclude their victory against an FCS opponent (McNeese State), the Ragin' Cajuns were outscored by 59 points on the season. Should they be laying more than a field goal against an FBS call up that figures to be highly motivated playing in their first ever bowl game? The Blue Hens had an uneven debut in FBS, beating bowl bound teams Connecticut, Florida International, and Louisiana Tech, but also losing to the worst team in Conference USA, Sam Houston State. The Blue Hens were also outscored by their opponents, but that is mostly due to their poor performance against the two power conference teams they faced (Colorado and Wake Forest). If we back out those two games, as well as their victory against Delaware State (FCS), the Blue Hens actually outscored their non-power FBS opponents. In the past decade, FBS call ups playing in their first bowl game are 6-3 outright. These teams are pretty evenly matched, so I will back the one catching more than a field goal.
Xbox Bowl @ Frisco
Missouri State +1.5 Arkansas State
Of the two FBS call-ups in Conference USA, I was most skeptical of Missouri State. The Bears don't have the winning pedigree Delaware does at the FCS level. However, one year into FBS life, Missouri State was the better team. The Bears had an inauspicious welcome to FBS in the LA Coliseum against Southern Cal, but won seven of their next nine games before a two-game skid to close the season took some of the shine off their debut. As with Delaware, the Bears should be highly motivated to get their first bowl win. Meanwhile, Arkansas State once again did it with smoke and mirrors. The Red Wolves won three Sun Belt games by exactly one point to eke out bowl eligibility. This team is not good and should not be laying points, even against a former FCS team.
College Football Playoff
Miami +3.5 Texas A&M
Miami's selection, or perhaps more accurately, Notre Dame's exclusion was one of the bigger stories of this year's selection show. The Hurricanes beat the Irish in the season opener, but stumbled a few times in ACC play, and thanks to some ill conceived tiebreakers, failed to qualify for the conference title game. Like Miami, Texas A&M also defeated Notre Dame, albeit in South Bend. That was a great victory for the Aggies, but was the only impressive one they would notch on the season. One of the consequences of conference expansion is that some years, a team will luck into an easy league schedule (think Indiana last season). And that is exactly what happened to Texas A&M. In the SEC, six teams finished with losing regular season records (Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and South Carolina). The Aggies played five of them. In fact, they did not face an SEC team with a winning conference record until the regular season finale. Cumulatively, their eight SEC opponents finished with an 18-46 league record! The Aggies can only play the teams on their schedule, but they have faced one playoff caliber team since the season's second week, and they lost it. Believe me, I take no pleasure in backing Mario Cristobal. The Aggies definitely enter with the head coaching advantage, but I think the Hurricanes have a better roster. I'll take the three and a half points.
GameAbove Sports Bowl @ Detroit
Central Michigan +10.5 Northwestern
An underdog's best friend, especially a double digit underdog, is a running clock. And both teams in this game should keep the clock running. Central Michigan runs on 69% (nice) of their offensive snaps, while Northwestern runs on 55% of theirs. At minimum, three out of every five plays in this game will be on the ground. The total reflects this as it currently sits at 43.5, implying a roughly 27-17 Northwestern victory. The Wildcats scored 28 or more points three times this season: against a bad FCS team (Western Illinois), a bad FBS team (Louisiana-Monroe), and a bad Big 10 team (Minnesota). All those games also came at home. I think they will be in somewhat hostile territory as they travel to MAC country to take on the Chippewas. I don't think Northwestern can score four touchdowns, so as long as Central Michigan can score in the high teens, they should be able to cover this big number.
Rate Bowl @ Phoenix
New Mexico +3.5 Minnesota
For any aspiring t-shirt salesmen in the greater Phoenix area, I have a simple design for you. Eck Vs Fleck. And then get some AI tool to reimagine the opposing head coaches in various designs throughout history (gladiators, samurais, boxers, etc.). You're welcome. When it comes to the actual product on the field, New Mexico is in a bowl game for the first time in nearly a decade and their first non-New Mexico Bowl trip since 2004. In addition, if the Lobos win and things break right in front of them, they could enter the AP Poll for the first time in school history. For a team that was expected to win roughly three or four games in 2025, that's a pretty good season. I'm surprised Jason Eck is still in Albuquerque, but a power conference team's loss is New Mexico's gain. While a bowl game is big news for the Lobos, it has become old hat for the Gophers. Excluding the 2020 Covid season, this is their seventh consecutive bowl game under PJ Fleck. The Golden Gophers are 6-0 in bowl games under Fleck, but despite their winning Big 10 conference record, this is one of his worst teams at Minnesota. The Gophers were outgained by nearly one and a half yards per play by their Big 10 opponents and went 0-5 away from home this season, losing by an average of nearly 25 points per game. New Mexico has the geographic and the motivation advantage. Back the Lobos catching more than a field goal.
ReliaQuest Bowl @ Tampa
Iowa +5.5 Vanderbilt
2025 has been a season for the ages for Vanderbilt. The Commodores won ten games, finished with a winning SEC record for the first time since 2012, may have the eventual Heisman winner, and could have qualified for the College Football Playoff if some more teams lost some more games (amazing analysis, I know). That being said, Iowa has the potential to drag the Commodores to hell. The Hawkeyes play their usual brand of great defense and just enough offense to harass, but not beat the better teams on the schedule. Iowa lost four games this season, with each defeat coming by five points or less, including two to a pair of College Football Playoff participants (Indiana and Oregon). Both teams play slow and run the ball which plays to the underdog's advantage. I like Iowa to keep this one close.
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