March Madness Intermission: The Lily of the Valley

Yesterday we discussed using tempo to select, or more accurately, determine who not to select, as upset picks in the first round of your NCAA Tournament bracket. Today we're going to go with another method: conference pedigree. 

Does it seem like certain conferences almost always produce a first-round shocker? Or that the trendy underdog from some conferences consistently fails to deliver? To answer that question with more than just “vibes,” I looked at every non–power conference’s performance in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2011—the last time the field expanded (unnecessarily, in my humble opinion).

Over those fourteen tournaments—remember, there was no tournament in 2020—there were six power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC) and 25 non–power conferences. When the Pac-12 resumes play next season it will no longer be considered a power conference, but during this time period it was.

I examined how teams from the other 25 conferences performed in the first round when they were given a double-digit seed. This prevents the West Coast Conference from receiving “upset credit” for years when Gonzaga earned a number 1 seed. I also excluded victories from the First Four, the opening round that began in 2011. Several conferences are sent to Dayton almost every year, and two number 16 seeds fail to advance to the official first round each season.

Because of these factors, the total number of first-round games played by each conference does not add up to fourteen. Now that the background is out of the way, let’s get to the results.

We'll start with conferences that have not won a first round game as a double-digit seed since the tournament expanded. 

I knew the SWAC had not won a tournament game since they pressed Georgia Tech into oblivion in 1993, but I was surprised both the Big Sky and Big South had taken first round abuse for this long. The Big Sky last won a first round game in 2006 and the Big South last won a game in 2007. High Point might be a trendy upset pick from some talking heads, but I would avoid putting the Panthers through to the second round. 

Next up, the conferences that have won exactly one first round game as a double-digit seed since 2011. 

Five of the seven victories were among the biggest in NCAA Tournament history, with the America East (UMBC) and NEC (Fairleigh Dickinson) giving us the only two 16 over 1s and the MAAC (St. Peter's), MEAC (Norfolk State), and Patriot (Lehigh) giving us three of the eleven total instances of a 15 beating a 2. The victories by the Horizon (Oakland over Kentucky) and Southern Conference (Furman over Virginia) were also very shocking. 

Now, the conferences that have won two games as a double-digit seed since 2011. 

For the West Coast Conference, non-Gonzaga teams are 0-5 under these criteria (BYU twice, St. Mary's twice, and San Francisco once). Don't tie up your mortgage payment in Santa Clara. VCU has both of the CAA's wins as a double digit seed and the Rams have not been members of that conference in more than a decade. I have been charmed by the siren call of the Summit League (specifically South Dakota State) on multiple occasions, but this conference typically sees it champ bounced early. The Big West and Ohio Valley have not seen a team win a first round game since before Covid. I will note the WAC's two victories have come over the past four tournaments. However, those two schools (New Mexico State and Grand Canyon) are no longer conference members. And finally, look at those numbers for the Mountain West. Yikes. We'll take a deeper dive into the mid-major league everyone loves to hate tomorrow. 

Now those conferences with a trifecta of wins as a double-digit seed since 2011. 

I must say I was surprised these three conferences had pulled off three first round upsets since 2011. However, some context is necessary. Recent returns have been less kind. The Atlantic Sun is 1-8 in first round games since 2016, the Sun Belt is 1-6 in first round games since 2017, and the MAC is 2-9 in first round games since 2013. I know everyone wants to back Akron or Miami of Ohio, but the MAC's track record plus their pace gives me some pause. In addition, the teams responsible for two of the Atlantic Sun's three victories are no longer in the conference (Liberty and Mercer). 

Only one conference has four first round victories as a double-digit seed, so I grouped the Southland with the conferences that had won five. 

I would not have guessed the Southland had inflicted as much first round carnage on higher seeds. The teams responsible for three of the four wins are McNeese State and Stephen F. Austin, who were the standard bearers in the conference this season. The Ivy League and the Missouri Valley have a well-deserved reputation for first round success, but I feel like Conference USA has flown under the radar. The conference won first round games four years in a row (2015-2018) with three different schools (UAB, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall) and won another in 2021 for good measure (North Texas). 

If you've been keeping track, you know we've covered 24 conferences so far. So, which conference has been the best at winning first-round games as a double-digit seed? It's the Atlantic 10. 

The Atlantic 10 has won eight games as double-digit seed in the first round since 2011. However, a word of caution before you haphazardly advance VCU to the Sweet 16. Since 2018, the conference is just 1-6 in the first round, with Duquesne's victory over BYU in 2024 their victory during that period. Personally, I think you're better off with a little Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa) action to get your first round rocks off.