Last week we looked at how Conference USA teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.
Once again, here are the 2025 Conference USA standings.
And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.
Finally, Conference USA teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.
Biggest APR Over and Underachievers
Astute readers probably perused the previous table and thought:
Wow. Jacksonville State and UTEP seemed to significantly over and underachieve relative to their respective APRs. I wonder where their numbers rank in an historical context.
First, thanks for your curiosity. Second, I have the answer for you. Among non-power conference teams since 2005, Jacksonville State was the biggest overachiever in regards to their actual conference record and their APR. Meanwhile, for non-power conference teams since 2005, UTEP was the third biggest underachiever in regards to their actual conference record and their APR.
If you are regular reader of this blog (thanks dad), I like to use history as a guide to set reasonable expectations for how major over or underachievers will perform in the coming season. With that in mind, let's compare Jacksonville State and UTEP with the other major over and underachievers to set a baseline standard for their conference record in 2026. We'll start with the overachiever, Jacksonville State.
In the APR posts, I calculate the difference between actual conference record APR in terms of wins. However, since each non-power conference from the past twenty one seasons did not all play the same number of games, we are going to use winning percentage. The table below lists all non-power conference teams since 2005 that saw their actual conference winning percentage exceed their APR by at least .300. The teams are sorted by the difference between their actual conference winning percentage and their APR. Their actual winning percentage, expected winning percentage, and difference between the two are listed in the table as well as their offensive touchdowns and touchdowns allowed.
Ten other teams saw their actual conference record eclipse their APR by at least .300. The big question we want to answer is what happened to those previous ten teams the next season? My guess is they would tend to decline in the aggregate. Did that happen?
Unequivocally, the answer is yes. Seven of the ten teams saw their conference record decline the following season, while three teams held steady, and none improved. Their aggregate conference winning percentage declined by .301. In an eight game conference season, this equates to roughly 2.4 fewer wins. I'd say reasonable expectations for Jacksonville State would be between four and five conference wins in 2026.
What about our big underachiever, UTEP? The table below lists all non-power conference teams since 2005 that saw their actual conference winning percentage fall at least .300 below their APR. Once again, teams are sorted by the difference between their actual conference winning percentage and their APR. Their actual winning percentage, expected winning percentage, and difference between the two are listed in the table as well as their offensive touchdowns and touchdowns allowed.
An unlucky thirteen teams joined UTEP in underachieving by at least .300. Did the previous thirteen teams tend to improve the following season?
In general, the teams that significantly underachieved relative to their APR improved. Nine of the previous thirteen saw their conference record improve, while two produced the same conference record, and two somehow declined. In the aggregate, the teams improved their winning percentage by .225. In an eight game conference schedule, this equates to roughly 1.8 additional wins. I will draw your attention to the cumulative winning percentage. While the thirteen teams did improve, their overall winning percentage was still south of .500. UTEP is moving from one of the weaker FBS conferences (CUSA) to a much stronger non-power conference (Mountain West). I expect improvement in 2026, but three or four wins in conference play is probably the ceiling on this mine shaft.
