2008 SEC Preview

East

Florida
One season after capturing the MNC in a memorable rout against top-ranked Ohio State, the training wheels came off the Urban Meyer-spread option and the offense began to pound everyone into submission. However, while the offense became one of the nation’s best (3rd in total offense and 4th in scoring), the defense lost 9 starters and went from allowing 13.5 points per game in 2006 to nearly double that (25.5) in 2007. Still, 9 wins and a Heisman Trophy account for a pretty good season by most standards.

The Gator offense returns most of its playmakers in 2008. The team’s leading rusher and passer, quarterback Tim Tebow (perhaps you’ve heard of him?) returns and barring a cataclysmic injury, should again be one of the best players in the nation. Teaming with Tebow, be it in the passing game or toting the rock is uber-speedster Percy Harvin. In his 2 seasons in Gainesville, Harvin has gained 1192 yards on the ground and averaged a mind-boggling 9.61 yards per carry. To put that number in perspective, the leading receiver for Notre Dame last season, John Carlson, averaged 9.30 yards per catch. Harvin is no slouch catching the football either, gaining 1285 yards through the air in his Florida career. The Gators lose only 3 starters from last year’s team—2 offensive linemen and 2nd leading receiver Andre Caldwell. The Gators should once again be one of the best offenses, not only in the SEC, but also the nation.

As mentioned earlier, the defense was very green in 2007, having lost 9 starters from the unit that dominated Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game. That relative inexperience last season should pay dividends in 2008 as 8 starters, and 5 of the top-6 tacklers return. The major loss is defensive end Derrick Harvey, who led the team with 8.5 sacks in 2007, and opted to leave for the greener pastures of the NFL. Of course, last season the Gators had to replace 4 NFL draft choices from the defensive line, so replacing one should be a piece of cake. The Gators will probably not be the elite unit they were in 2006 (6th in total and scoring defense), but with this explosive offense, they don’t need to be.

Prediction: The Gators leave the state of Florida only 3 times in 2008. They must face Tennessee in Knoxville, Arkansas in Fayetteville, and Vanderbilt in Nashville. Tennessee and Arkansas should both field weaker squads in 2008 than they did in 2007, and Vanderbilt is, well Vanderbilt. If the Gators can get by LSU at home and Georgia in the Cocktail Party, their only other stiff test would come in the SEC Championship Game. Florida is as good a bet as any to take home the MNC in 2008. In other news, I can’t wait to see the spread for their first game, a home date with Hawaii. Georgia shellacked a solid Hawaii team on a neutral field in the Sugar Bowl. Imagine what the Gators may do to a depleted Hawaii team in the friendly confines of the Swamp.


Georgia
Mark Richt has done nothing but win since coming to Georgia before the 2001 season. His Bulldogs have played in 3 BCS Bowl Games in 7 seasons, and Richt has posted a cumulative record of 72-19. If Richt sticks around, sooner or later, the MNC will come. Unfortunately for Georgia fans, it won’t come in 2008.

Why such hate for a team that finished 11-2 in 2007, won their last 7 games, qualified for a BCS bowl, and returns 17 starters in 2008? For starters, the offense was below average last season. The Bulldogs finished 74th in the nation in total offense, averaging 376 yards per game. In SEC play, the Bulldogs finished a very average 7th in yards gained. They did this despite having two of the nation’s most highly touted players in the backfield—running back Knowshon Moreno and quarterback Matthew Stafford. Moreno has lived up to the hype in his one season of play, compiling over 1300 yards on the ground and averaging a robust 5.38 yards per carry. However, for all the hype surrounding Stafford, he just hasn’t been that stellar. In 2006, his freshman year, he threw more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (7) and completed only 52.7% of his passes. His passer rating of 108.98 was not even in the top-100. He improved substantially in 2007, throwing 19 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He still struggled with accuracy, completing only 55.7% of his passes. His passer rating, while better (128.92), ranked only 56th in the nation. Stafford may improve somewhat, but he will still likely be only slightly above-average. Plus, with the loss of his number one receiver (Sean Bailey), the Georgia attack will be overly dependent on Moreno.

The Georgia defense made up for the shortcomings of the offense. The Bulldogs allowed only 323 yards per game (14th in the nation). In SEC play, only the powerhouse defenses in the SEC West (Auburn and LSU) fared better. After an embarrassing showing in Knoxville, when they gave up 411 yards and 35 points in a loss to Tennessee, the Bulldogs held their next 4 SEC foes (Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn, and Kentucky) to 292 yards per game. Amazingly, the Sun Belt’s Troy Trojans gained the most yards against the Georgia defense in 2007, racking up 488 yards (a lot of it in garbage time). The Georgia defense should remain among the SEC’s best in 2008. 9 starters, including 6 of the top-7 tacklers are back. The Bulldogs will miss defensive end Marcus Howard and his team-leading 10.5 sacks, but the Bulldogs had 42 as a team (6th in the nation) in 2007, so the pass rush should still be brutal.

Prediction: The non-conference schedule has one gigantic landmine against Arizona State in Tempe. If they survive that game, they could very well be 7-0 when they travel to LSU in late October. Unfortunately, in their last 5 games, the Bulldogs must travel to LSU, Auburn, and face Florida in the Cocktail Party. The schedule is simply too daunting for a team with so many offensive issues to navigate without a few losses.


South Carolina
It wasn’t supposed to end like that. On the morning of October 20th, the Gamecocks stood 6-1 and were ranked #6 in the country. Their opponent that day in Columbia, Vanderbilt, had not beaten the Gamecocks since their winless campaign (0-11) in 1999. When the smoke cleared that Saturday evening, the Gamecocks had committed 4 turnovers and scored only 6 points in an embarrassing loss. That loss dropped the Gamecocks to 6-2, and they win not win another game. Some of the losses were heart-wrenching (Tennessee and Clemson) and some were ugly (Arkansas rushed for over 500 yards), but they happened, and they kept the Gamecocks home for the postseason. Can the Gamecocks shake off the ugly ending to last season and resume their hunt for an SEC East title?

The Gamecocks had a decent offense in 2007 (though not by typical Spurrier standards), averaging 372 yards per game (77th in the nation). In SEC play, the Gamecocks were 6th in yards gained. The Gamecocks bring back 7 starters in 2008, including 4 offensive linemen. In addition, two players who were not starters in 2007, quarterback Chris Smelley and running back Mike Davis, saw significant action in 2007. Smelly threw passes in 7 games and posted an efficiency rating of 127.46. Although he did not have enough attempts to qualify, that rating would rank 58th in the nation (just 2 spot below the aforementioned quarterback for the University of Georgia). Davis gained 518 yards on the ground in 2007 spelling Cory Boyd. The Gamecocks offense should be just as good, if not better in 2008 with the continuity on the offensive line and the return of the top-2 receivers, Kenny McKinley and tight end Jared Cook.

If the Gamecocks are to rise in the SEC standings, the defense, in particular the run defense will have to improve. The Gamecocks were a respectable 56th in total defense, allowing an average of 378 yards per game. However, the run defense was atrocious, permitting 209 yards per game (110th in the nation). They also allowed 4.85 yards per rush (101st in the nation), proving that they were not the victims of an inordinate number of runs. Every team gained at least 100 yards on the ground against the porous run defense (Tennessee at 101 yards was the lowest). The run defense was not appreciably worse in the 5-game losing streak either, it was bad all year, and if we remove the Arkansas game, it was arguably better at the end of the year. The good news for South Carolina fans is that 9 starters are back in 2008. That number jumps to 10 if we include Jasper Brinkley, a 1st Team SEC linebacker in 2006, who played in only 4 games last season due to injury. The Gamecock defense should be substantially improved, and the team’s record should follow suit.

Prediction: The non-conference schedule includes two walkovers (Wofford and UAB), a Thursday night home opener against NC State, and the annual rivalry game at Clemson. The Gamecocks should be 3-1 at worst against that lineup. In conference play, the Gamecocks have very winnable road games at Vanderbilt (won last 4 times in Nashville), Kentucky (won last 4 at Lexington), and Ole Miss. The home schedule has two very winnable games (Tennessee and Arkansas) and two toughies (Georgia and LSU). When all is said and done, the Gamecocks should be one of the top-3 teams in the SEC East.


Vanderbilt
The Commodores have come oh so close to gaining bowl eligibility 2 of the past 3 seasons. In 2005, they began the season 4-0, before losing 6 straight (4 by 7 points or less) to fall out of bowl contention. In 2007, they needed just 1 win in their final 4 games to attain bowl eligibility. They lost all 4 (2 by a combined 8 points). Can the Commodores end 26 years of heartache and qualify for their first bowl game since 1982?

Last season the Vanderbilt offense was among the worst in the nation. They gained only 327 yards per game (103rd in the nation) and scored only 21.7 points per game (93rd in the nation). In SEC play, only one team gained fewer yards (Mississippi State). That dilapidated unit loses 8 starters in 2008, including all 5 offensive linemen, the team’s leading receiver (Earl Bennett) and the team’s leading rusher (Cassen Jackson-Garrison). Sounds like the Commodores may be in for a truly lousy offensive season. Of course, it pays to remember that in 2007 Vandy brought back 10 offensive starters and actually averaged fewer yards (327 to 351) and fewer points (21.7 to 22.0) per game. So maybe those players starting all those games just weren’t that good? I don’t think Vandy will light up the scoreboard in 2008, but if the offense declines it will not be by much.

Defensively, Vanderbilt fielded one of the better units in the program’s history last season. Opponents averaged only 325 yards per game (16th in the nation). In SEC play, Vandy allowed the 6th fewest yards, but amazingly had the 2nd best yardage defense in the SEC East. Of East teams, only Georgia allowed fewer yards. That’s a pretty amazing feat for Vandy to allow fewer yards than the 4 other public institutions with much better traditions and talent (Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, and South Carolina) in the SEC East. The Vandy defense returns 6 starters in 2008, but loses 2 of their best players in linebackers Jonathan Goff (1st in tackles) and Marcus Buggs (3rd in tackles). The entire secondary does return, so the pass defense which held opposing passers to a solid rating of 118.03 (42nd in the nation) should remain a strength.

Prediction: With non-conference games against Miami (Ohio), Rice, Duke, and Wake Forest the chance for a 3-1 mark outside the SEC is very good. If the Commodores can upset Wake on the last weekend in November, they could be looking at 4 non-league wins. In SEC play, Vandy has a very tough home schedule (South Carolina, Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee). I wouldn’t expect them to knock off the Tigers or Gators, but the Gamecocks or Vols (beaten each once in the last 3 seasons) could be an upset victim. The road schedule is very manageable with winnable games at Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Kentucky (lost last 4 to Wildcats). Vandy’s luck just has to change. In one-score SEC games under Bobby Johnson, the Commodores are just 4-17. With a little bit of luck, they could have played in 2 bowl games already. The fates will smile on the Commodores in 2008, and they will qualify for their first bowl game since 1982.


Tennessee
Take a moment and try to remember back to the 2004 season. Tennessee played in the SEC Championship Game after seemingly narrowly escaping each conference opponent. In the offseason, Tennessee was the toast of pundits nationwide. But alas, one man told Tennessee fans to reel in expectations. Unfortunately, for Tennessee fans, 2008 could look a great deal like 2005.

Can you guess which SEC team allowed the most yards in conference play last year? That’s right, it was the Tennessee Vols. What’s even more amazing is how schizophrenic the defense was. The table below lists the yardage totals Tennessee allowed in their 8 conference games. As you can see, the defense improved substantially throughout the course of the season. Just kidding. I fudged those numbers quite a bit. The games where they allowed over 500 yards came throughout the season, just as the games where they offered a stiff defense came sporadically. In their first SEC game, Florida gained 554 yards in a thorough beating at the Swamp. 3 weeks later, they held Georgia to 243 yards. They followed that up with a solid performance against Mississippi State (338 yards), before getting blitzed by Alabama (510 yards) and South Carolina (501 yards) in consecutive weeks. Just 2 weeks later, they held the explosive Arkansas attack to 289 yards (one week after the Hogs eviscerated the Gamecocks) and then allowed a scant 270 yards to Vanderbilt. The Vols closed the SEC regular season by allowing 564 yards to Kentucky. If there ever was a time when you really didn’t know what you were going to get, it was with the Tennessee defense in 2007. Even outside the SEC, they could be good (held Wisconsin to 347 yards in the bowl win) or bad (gave up 471 in the opener at Cal). The Vols return 6 starters from that helter-skelter unit. They do lose their best player, linebacker Jerod Mayo, who bolted early for the NFL, but the Vols should no longer feature the worst defense in the SEC.

While the defense should be better, the offense has to replace perhaps the most important member of the 2007 unit, quarterback Erik Ainge. Ainge tossed 31 touchdowns last season and posted a passer rating of 135.48 (36th in the nation). Besides Ainge, most of the key contributors return. Running back Arian Foster, the team’s three best receivers (Lucas Taylor, Austin Rogers, and Josh Briscoe) and 4 starting offensive linemen return. Ainge’s likely replacement, junior Jonathan Crompton, will have good talent surrounding him. While the Vols will surely miss Ainge, the offense, if it does falter, should do so only negligibly.

Prediction: The non-conference schedule features 3 sure wins (UAB, Northern Illinois, and Wyoming all come to Neyland Stadium) and one very dangerous game—the opener at UCLA on Labor Day. Inside the SEC, the Vols have tough road trips to Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt while hosting Florida, Mississippi State, Alabama, and Kentucky. While the Vols won 10 games last season, they were extremely fortunate to do so. Even if the offense and defense improve, the luck may not. Expect the Vols to have a losing SEC record for the 2nd time in 4 seasons.


Kentucky
Flashback if you will to the late 1990’s. Mel Gibson was a box-office stud (and not the hate-spewing anti-Semite he has become—at least not in public), Britney Spears was an innocent pop princess, and the Kentucky Wildcats had just participated in their second consecutive bowl game. The Wildcats followed up that pair of bowl games with a 2-9 record (winless in the SEC) in 2000. Unfortunately for Kentucky fans, a similar fate may await the 2008 squad.

The past 2 seasons, the Wildcats have been a little more lucky than good. While they have gone a collective 16-10 over that span, they have a sterling 8-4 in one-score games. That luck is likely to reverse course in 2008. In addition, the Wildcat offense, the driving force behind the team’s run of success, losses all of its stars. Quarterback Andre Woodson (13th in pass efficiency in 2006 and 20th in 2007) is gone, as are running back Rafael Little (over 1000 yards rushing and 42 catches last season), and receivers Steve Johnson (over 1000 yards and 13 touchdowns last season) and Keenan Burton (over 1000 yards in 2006 and over 700 last season). The positives for the offense are that 3 starting linemen return and receiver Dicky Lyons (nearly 1500 receiving yards the past two seasons) could prove a solid replacement for Johnson or Burton. Still, likely signal-caller Curtis Pulley, should not come close to matching Woodson’s production.

Defense has been a problem for the Wildcats seemingly since the dawn of time. Last season the Wildcats finished a respectable 67th in total defense, permitting 397 yards per game. However, in SEC play, their 10th place finish in yards allowed was much more indicative of their quality. Only Ole Miss and Tennessee allowed more yards in SEC play. The Wildcats do bring back 8 starters in 2008, and could conceivably improve. However, improve in this case means trend toward mediocrity, which will not be good enough to make up for the losses on offense.

Prediction: Outside of Louisville, the non-conference schedule is a breeze, featuring the likes of Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee, and Western Kentucky. After a 3-1 start, things will start to get rough. Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, and Tennessee dot the road schedule, while South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, and Vanderbilt come to Lexington. With so much talent departing on offense and an almost assured reversal in good fortune, the Wildcats will sink to the bottom of the SEC East.


West

Auburn
In the Brandon Cox era (2005-20070, the Auburn Tigers went 29-9, 18-6 in the SEC, and defeated rival Alabama 3 times. However, one has to wonder what the team could have done with a little more consistency at the quarterback position. The following table lists Auburn’s national rank in total offense, total defense, and passer rating the past 3 seasons. As you can see, as the defense became elite, the offense became putrid. A great deal of that is due to the play of Brandon Cox. In his first season as a starter, Cox threw 15 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, hardly Heisman numbers, but very solid. In his senior season, he threw only 9 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. In fact if he look at the disappointing losses over the past 3 seasons, nearly all of them involved a terrible game from Cox.

2005: In the season opener (his first game as a starter), Georgia Tech picked him off 4 times. In the bowl upset to Wisconsin, Cox completed only 15 of 33 passes for a measly 137 yards.

2006: In the loss to upstart Arkansas, Cox gained only 153 yards on 29 passes. In the whitewashing at the hands of Georgia, he totaled just as many interceptions (4) as completions.

2007: In the loss to South Florida, Cox completed less than half his throws (16 of 35) for only 165 yards. In the shocker to Mississippi State, Cox threw 2 interceptions in only 10 pass attempts. In yet another blowout loss to Georgia, Cox threw 4 picks. All told, here is how Cox performed in the 29 Tiger wins versus the 9 Tiger losses of his starting career.
As you can see, when Cox was bad, he was very bad. So what does this have to do with 2008? Not a whole lot. Cox has moved on and the Tigers have embraced some form of the spread offense, complete with a mobile quarterback (Kodi Burns), which they showcased with moderate success in the Peach (err Chick-Fil-A) Bowl win over Clemson. Besides Cox, the only other loss on offense is a non-descript tight end. The offense should improve substantially in 2008 and give the team a legitimate shot at getting to the SEC Championship Game.

The Tigers had the best defensive unit in the SEC last season. Even better than conference (and MNC) champion LSU. These Tigers allowed a scant 283 yards per game to their SEC foes. 7 starters return, including defensive end Antonio Coleman, whose 8.5 sacks led the team last season. The defense may fall somewhat from its perch at the top, but it should remain one of the finer units in the nation.

Prediction: The Tigers begin the year with Louisiana-Monroe, and two upsets over SEC schools in 10 calendar months seems a little much for the Warhawks. Elsewhere in non-conference play, the Tigers host Southern Miss and Tennessee-Martin and in one of the marquee games of the year, travel to West Virginia on a Thursday night in late-October. That game will serve more to validate West Virginia’s season, but an Auburn win could position them to play for the MNC even with an inevitable loss in SEC play. In league play, the Tigers road schedule (Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Alabama) is very manageable, but the Tigers will probably slip up in one of those games. The home schedule is where the action is, with LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Georgia coming to Jordan-Hare. The benefit of hosting LSU gives Auburn the edge over those other Tigers in the SEC West.


LSU
The 2007 season ended like the previous two years of the Les Miles era, with two losses and a bowl win. However, since every other major team in the nation also had two losses, and more importantly, the teams in their division all had at least three losses, the Tigers were able to take home the MNC. Was LSU the best team in 2008? There’s some pretty significant statistical evidence that they were. By the both measures of SDPI, they were the best team in the best conference. For posterity’s sake, it would be prudent to note that the Tigers did lose to two teams—Kentucky and Arkansas that combined to lose 10 games last season. The also had a solid 4-2 record in one-score games and had an outstanding turnover margin of +20. The Tigers were a very good team (I’m hesitant to throw out the word great) in 2007, but they were also propped up by a host of other mitigating factors; many of which lay outside their control.

In SEC play, the Tigers the gained the 3rd most yards (behind Florida and Arkansas) and allowed the 2nd fewest (behind Auburn). In other words they were strong on both sides of the ball. With significant losses on both sides, they should remain strong, just not as strong. On offense, the Tigers lose their starting quarterback (Matt Flynn) and running back (Jacob Hester). The Tigers do return their top-2 receivers (Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd) as well as 4 starting offensive linemen. However, the biggest loss on offense may be quarterback Ryan Perrilloux, who was slated to be the starter in 2008, but has subsequently been dismissed from the team. Likely starter, redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee, has yet to see any game action. He was weapons, but lacks experience, so the offense is likely to go through some growing pains early on.

The defense loses the most talent from the squad with only 5 starters returning. Among those departing are defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey (1st round draft pick), linebacker Ali Highsmith (2nd team All-American), and safety Craig Steltz (4th round draft pick). The best returning player is defensive end Kirston Pittman, who led the team with 7.5 sacks in 2007. The unit should remain stout, but is likely to decline somewhat with the loss of so many talented players.

Prediction: Even with Appalachian State on the schedule, the non-conference slate should result in 4 wins (Troy, North Texas, and Tulane are the other foes). In SEC play, the Tigers have 4 very tough road contests—Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, and Arkansas. The home schedule has Georgia as the marquee foe along with Alabama, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. The schedule is too daunting and the ridiculous turnover margin of +20 will surely come down and prevent the Tigers from defending their conference and national title.


Alabama
Talk about not getting what you pay for. After forking over a king’s ransom to acquire the services of perpetual job hunter Nick Saban, the Alabama Crimson Tide won exactly one more game in 2007 than they did in 2006. To be fair they did win twice as many SEC games (4 versus 2), but when you lose to the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, the season cannot be considered a success.

Last season the Alabama offense was mediocre by national standards (75th in total offense) and below average by SEC standards (8th in yards gained in conference play). The good news for Alabama fans is that the offense should improve in 2008. Quarterback John Parker Wilson returns for his senior season (3rd as a starter). Wilson posted a respectable passer rating of 126.50 in 2006 (47th in the nation), but saw his efficiency plummet to 114.61 in 2007 (92nd in the nation). If Wilson can regain his 2006 form, the offense could see some significant improvement. Elsewhere on the offensive side of the ball, the Tide return their leading rusher, Terry Grant. Grant gained nearly 900 yards in his first season of action. With 4 starting offensive linemen back, Grant should easily top 1000 yards. The only issue the offense could have is finding a reliable go-to receiver. The top-3 pass-catchers from 2007 (DJ Hall, Matt Caddell, and Keith Brown) are all gone. The lack of an experienced reliable receiver could hinder Wilson’s progression and slow down the entire offense.

The Tide defense was pretty good last season, finishing 31st in total defense, permitting 346 yards per game. In SEC play, they were 4th in yards allowed, behind the stout defenses at Auburn, LSU, and Georgia. The Tide defense returns 6 starters in 2008, including leading tackler and 1st team All-SEC safety Rashad Johnson. However, the team’s top sacker, defensive end Wallace Gilberry (10 sacks and 17 tackles for loss in 2007), has exhausted his eligibility. The defense should be roughly on par with last year’s unit. Perhaps a bit better, perhaps a bit worse, but for all intents and purposes very similar.

Prediction: The Tide open with Clemson in an intriguing ACC/SEC clash. Their other non-conference games are against Tulane, Western Kentucky, and Arkansas State. Barring another total meltdown like last year’s debacle against Louisiana-Monroe, the Tide should be 3-1 at worst outside the SEC. In conference play, the Tide’s home schedule is very manageable—Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Auburn. If the Tide can reverse their recent trend against the Tigers, they could very well sweep the home schedule. The road schedule is another issue entirely—Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU are all conceivable losses. The Tide don’t seem to be significantly improved in Saban’s 2nd season, so another 4-4 SEC record seems likely.


Ole Miss
In the fiasco that was the Ed Orgeron era (2005-2007), the Ole Miss Rebels won 3 SEC games. With a new coach (former Arkansas head man Houston Nutt), an intriguing quarterback transfer, a favorable schedule, and some positive statistical indicators, the Rebels should equal and could exceed their SEC win total from the 3 previous seasons.

Last season, Ole Miss featured one of the worst offenses in the nation and in the SEC. The Rebels gained only 345 yards per game (91st in the nation) overall and in SEC play only Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State gained fewer yards. A single player, quarterback and Texas transfer Jevan Snead, may be just what the offense needs to get out of the doldrums. These are the quarterback ratings and national ranking the Ole Miss offense has produced the past 4 seasons (since Eli Manning graduated). That’s a pretty horrendous track record. However, Snead, a highly sought after recruit who failed to beat out Colt McCoy at Texas in 2006, should go a long way toward rectifying those numbers. To aid Snead in his quest to bring relevance to Oxford are 4 returning starters on the offensive line (including Michael Oher of Blindside fame) and the top-3 receivers from 2007. The Rebels do lose their leading rusher, BenJarvus Green-Ellis (over 1100 yards in 2007), but Nutt has a history of producing quality running backs. The Ole Miss offense should be substantially improved in 2008.

The Reb defense from last season did the misfiring offense no favors. Only Tennessee allowed more yards in SEC play than Ole Miss. In non-conference action, even IAA Northwestern State gained 499 yards! Overall, the Rebels finished 88th in total defense, allowing 423 yards per game. However, the 2008 unit should be one of the most improved defenses in the nation. Amazingly, the Rebels return their top-14 tacklers in 2008! That’s not a misprint. 14. The best of the lot is undoubtedly defensive end Greg Hardy who registered a team-leading 10 sacks in 2007. The Ole Miss defense should rise to the upper-half of the SEC in 2008.

Prediction: In non-conference action, the Rebels open with Memphis for the 5th straight season. The Rebels have faced Memphis every season since 2002, and have won 4 of 6, but the last 4 games in the series have been decided by 7 points or less. The Rebels would be wise to not overlook their opponent from Conference USA. The Rebels follow that up with a trip to Winton-Salem to take on Wake Forest. In their last meeting, in Oxford in 2006, the Deacons trounced the Rebs 27-3. It won’t be easy, but Ole Miss could very well knock off the Deacons. The Rebels other two non-conference games are relative layups at home against Samford and Louisiana-Monroe. Anything worse than 3-1 outside the SEC is grounds for worry. In SEC play, the Rebels have 3 very winnable home games—Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Mississippi State. The other is against Auburn. The road schedule is much more daunting with trips to Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU. If the Rebels can score a mild upset at home, they could break even in SEC play. Besides the new coach, talented quarterback, and host of returning starters, the Rebels were also a poor -10 in turnover margin last season. All those positive indicators should have the Rebels back in postseason play for the first time since 2003.


Arkansas
One year after taking the nation by storm and rising as high as #5 in the polls, the Hogs fell back to Earth and suffered their 6th .500 or worse finish in SEC play in the last 8 seasons. They were also utterly decimated by Missouri in the Cotton Bowl and figure to be a much different (though not necessarily better) team in 2008.

The 2007 Arkansas offense was the antithesis of balance. They averaged 287 yards per game on the ground (4th in the nation) and an otherworldly 5.96 yards per rush behind the dynamic duo of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. They averaged only 163 yards though the air (112th in the nation). When the offense couldn’t run the ball, the team was toast. In the games where they were offensively impotent (7 points versus Auburn, 13 points versus Tennessee, and 7 points versus Missouri), the team averaged only 119 yards on the ground and 3.23 yards per rush. Quarterback Casey Dick was unable to rescue the offense when McFadden or Jones were contained. Dick posted solid overall numbers, with an efficiency rating of 126.63 (62nd in the nation), but he was prone to mixing in good games with some real ugly ones. Dick posted a very good rating of 135.12 against a solid Alabama pass defense, and followed that up with a 79.24 rating against a weak Kentucky defense. Further illustrating the point, he was eaten alive by the manic-depressive Tennessee defense (89.83 rating) and then torched the solid Mississippi State unit the following week (258.33 rating). New head coach Bobby Petrino has a penchant for cultivating good quarterbacks, but with just one season to work with, I wouldn’t bet on Dick becoming an elite passer. With the loss of McFadden and Jones, as well as number one receiver Peyton Hillis, the Hog offense should decline in 2008.

The Arkansas defense, a strength in 2006 when they allowed a mere 300 yards per game (26th in the nation), became a weakness in 2007. The Hogs finished a respectable 46th in total defense (366 yards per game), but in SEC play, only Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee allowed more yards. Marked improvement is not likely in 2008 as the Hogs return just 5 starters and lose their top-2 and 5 of their top-6 tacklers. The biggest loss is in the secondary where the entire starting lineup has departed. The Hogs should be about where they were last season in regards to defense, below average, but not terrible.

Prediction: Arkansas has 3 non-BCS foes on the schedule, and the first two they face should offer no real test (Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe). However, the third presents a very unique challenge. Tulsa comes to Fayetteville in the middle of the SEC season (November 1st) and their spread offense is led by coordinator Gus Malzahan, who coordinated the Arkansas offense in 2006. While the Hogs certainly have the talent advantage, the Tulsa offense could give the Hogs some trouble. Realistically, that game could determine if Arkansas is bowl bound, as 3 wins looks to be the maximum in conference play, and the Hog other non-conference game is in Austin against Texas.


Mississippi State
Although they were outscored on the season by 22 points and outgained by 452 yards, the Bulldogs finished 8-5 and won a bowl game for the first time since 2000. Despite some solid returning players, especially on defense, Mississippi State should be due for a big fall in 2008.

How did Mississippi State win in 2007? With a good defense (21st in total defense and 5th in yards allowed in SEC play) and some good luck. The Bulldogs were 4-0 in one-score games, befitting a team that won 8 games despite being outscored. The Bulldogs also had 6 non-offensive touchdowns (5 interceptions and one punt return), many of which came at very opportune times. An interception return was the difference in a 19-14 win over Auburn, the very famous pick-6 before halftime was the difference in a 17-12 win over Alabama, and safety Derek Pegues punt return tied the game against rival Ole Miss (eventually won by the Bulldogs on a last-second field goal). Of course, these things happened, so let’s give the Bulldogs some credit. However, defensive and special teams touchdowns are essentially random events and not highly correlated from one season to the next. Suffice it to say, the Bulldogs will have a tough time matching their non-offensive touchdowns in 2008. They will have an even tougher time having those non-offensive touchdowns occur at such critical moments.

With the 5th best defense in the SEC, why did the Bulldogs need such good fortune to qualify for a bowl game? Because the offense sucked. The Bulldogs gained only 297 yards per game (113th in the nation) and in SEC play, they gained the fewest yards of any team. Freshman quarterback Wesley Carroll fared much better than junior Michael Henig (104.57 quarterback rating versus 75.44), but his passer rating was not even in the top-100. As a team, the Bulldogs finished 117th in passer rating (98.46), ahead of only Idaho and Florida International. While Carroll may improve slightly, it would be a mistake to expect him to finally ‘get it’ and become an above-average passer. The Bulldogs best hope to field a decent offense is running back Anthony Dixon. Dixon topped 1000 yards last season (1064), but of all the running backs to top that mark, he was the only one to average under 4 yards per carry (3.69). With only two starting offensive linemen returning to lead the way, Dixon will have a tough time bettering his 2007 numbers.

Prediction: Mississippi State’s season may well begin rather ominously as they travel to Ruston, Louisiana to take on some more Bulldogs from Louisiana Tech. I’m not saying the lesser-regarded canines will win, but it should certainly be interesting. Elsewhere in non-conference action, Mississippi State hosts SE Louisiana and Middle Tennessee State before traveling to Atlanta to take on Georgia Tech. Depending on the result of the opener, the Bulldogs should either be 3-1 or 2-2 outside the SEC. In SEC play, the Bulldogs best odds at winning come at home against Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Arkansas. If they win all 3 of those, they should get to bowl eligibility, but that’s a dubious proposition.

Predicted Records:

2008 Pac-10 Preview

Southern Cal
The Trojans look to make it 7 straight Pac-10 titles. Can anyone out west loosen their Florida State-esque stranglehold on the conference? The past 6 seasons, USC has gone an incredible 44-6 against Pac-10 foes. Amazingly, no team in that span has beaten the Trojans twice. Each of their 6 Pac-10 losses has also come by no more than 7 points. That is the epitome of dominance. Barring some miraculous seasons at Cal or Oregon, their run should continue in 2008.

In 2007, the Trojans had a very prolific offense, led by quarterback John David Booty. The Trojans averaged 435 yards per game (29th in the nation) and scored 32.6 points per game (34th in the nation). While the Booty-led Trojans didn’t live up to the standard set by Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and Lendale White, they were still pretty good in their own right. Amazingly in 2008, the Trojans bring back only 4 offensive starters. Their leading passer (Booty), rusher (Chauncey Washington) and receiver (Fred Davis) are all gone, as well as 4 starting offensive linemen. The men replacing them are all blue-chip recruits, but the Trojans should suffer a decline in their offensive capabilities and may average under 30 points per game for the first time since 2001.

The defense, which ranked 2nd in the country in yards allowed per game (273), returns 7 starters in 2008. The unit should still be among the best in the Pac-10, but arguably the two best players (both from the defensive line) are gone. Lawrence Jackson, a defensive end who led the team with 10.5 sacks has departed and his partner on the line, tackle Sedrick Ellis (the Pac-10 defensive player of the year) is also gone. Those two players alone accounted for 19 of the Trojans 45 sacks (4th in the nation) last season. Despite the players Pete Carroll has recruited to fill the holes, the Trojans defensive line will suffer a small decline and the team will not get as much pressure on opposing quarterbacks from their front four.

Prediction: The Trojans have, not necessarily holes, but certainly inexperience at key positions (quarterback, running back, offensive line, defensive line) in 2008. Still, the Trojans have won 6 Pac-10 titles in a row for a reason. I won’t be picking against them until someone finally knocks them from their perch. I don’t expect an undefeated conference record, but they do get their toughest Pac-10 foes (Oregon, Cal, and Arizona State) in Los Angeles in 2008. In non-conference action, the home against Ohio State will get the most pub, but the opener at Virginia, with so many new starters to integrate, could end up being a compelling game.


California
2007 marked the first time the Cal Bears had a losing record in Pac-10 play with Jeff Tedford as the coach. The Bears began conference play 2-0, but lost 6 of their last 7 to finish with a 3-6 record. The previous low-point under the Tedford administration was a 4-4 record in 2002 (his first season) and another 4-4 record in 2005. What happened? Why did the Bears suddenly collapse? As you can see, in the first 2 games, the Bears and their opponents (Arizona and Oregon) gained about the same number of yards, but the Bears were much more efficient, averaging 7/10ths of a yard more per play. They also had a fantastic turnover margin of +6. Over the next 7 games, the Bears continued to outplay their opponents on a down-to-down basis, manifested in the yards and yards per play totals, but they couldn’t stop turning the ball over. Most of those turnovers belonged to quarterback Nate Longshore who threw 11 interceptions over the team’s final 7 conference games. Entering his senior season, Longshore is no longer entrenched as the starter. He will be challenged by last year’s backup Kevin Riley. Riley posted a much better passer rating (174.64 to 123.01) in limited action and will get every chance to win the job. He took over for Longshore in the bowl and led the Bears to a comeback win over Air Force. Whoever wins the starting job will have a lot of new faces to throw and hand off to. The leading rusher, Justin Forsett (over 1500 yards) is gone, as are the top-4 receivers. Fortunately, 3 starting offensive linemen do return so protection should not be an issue. For the second season in a row, Cal should average under 30 points per game. However, if the quarterback can take better care of the ball, Cal should rise in the standings.

The Cal defense finished a rather bland 58th in yards allowed in 2007, permitting opponents to roll up 379 yards per game. However, in Pac-10 play (the most offensive of the BCS leagues), Cal finished a respectable 5th in yards allowed. The defense should improve in 2008, with 8 starters returning. The Bears must replace leading tackler Thomas DeCoud, but nearly all the other key contributors return. All 3 linebackers and 3 of 4 defensive linemen are back, making the front 7 very formidable. Look for Cal to improve upon the pedestrian 21 sacks (85th in the nation) they amassed in 2007.

Prediction: Sandwiched between their Pac-10 opener at Washington State, the Bears host the Big 10’s Michigan State and travel to College Park to take on Maryland out of the ACC. Kudos to the Bears for scheduling some living, breathing BCS teams (and even going on the road) in their non-conference schedule. The Bears should handle the Spartans at home, but the cross-country trip to Maryland will be very tough. In their final non-conference game, they host Colorado State. At worse, they should have a 2-1 record outside the Pac-10. In conference play, they have 5 home games, all of which are very winnable (Arizona State, UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, and Washington). On the road, they must face Southern Cal (a certain loss) and then 3 teams that they can realistically expect to beat (Washington State, Arizona, and Oregon State). They won’t win all 3 of those, but taking 2 is certainly within reason. Cal should be headed to the Holiday Bowl in late December.


Oregon
It’s hard not to look back on 2007 as somewhat of a disappointment for the Ducks. If Dennis Dixon hadn’t gone down against Arizona, could they have finished off the Wildcats, Bruins, and Beavers and positioned themselves for a shot at the MNC? Ah, but we shall never know. Dixon did go down against Arizona, and his replacements failed to do much of anything until the surprising thrashing of South Florida in the Sun Bowl. Especially in line for some staunch criticism is quarterback Cody Kempt who started the game immediately after Dixon’s injury—a shutout at the hands of UCLA. Kempt’s stat line for that game? 6 completions in 23 attempts for 52 yards and 2 interceptions. Yikes. He missed his first 3 pass attempts against Oregon State the next week and was yanked in favor of Justin Roper. Roper posted decent numbers against the Beavers and again against the Bulls in the Sun Bowl, but the Ducks trounced South Florida thanks to the ground game. Jonathan Stewart went over 253 yards and averaged 11 yards per carry against the previously stout South Florida defense. Unfortunately for Roper or fellow sophomore Nathan Costa (the competitors for the starting quarterback job), Stewart’s days as a Duck are over. His 1700+ plus yards will be hard to replace. And don’t forget the Duck ground game that churned out 253 yards per game (6th in the nation) also loses Dixon. Roper is not athletic, but Costa does give the Ducks a dual threat under center. It will be interesting to see if the prototypical pocket passer or the more athletic speed guy wins the quarterback battle. Whoever wins the battle, will have the services of wide receiver Jaison Williams (another one!) and tight end Ed Dickson, the two leading receivers from 2007. The offensive line also returns 3 of 5 starters, so while the offense will certainly not be as prolific as last year’s version, it should remain in the upper tier of the Pac-10.

Defensively, the Ducks were very nondescript in 2007. They ranked 60th in the nation in total defense, allowing 382 yards per game. In Pac-10 play, they were 6th in yards allowed which was right at average last season. The defense was not going to win games by itself, but coupled with the Dixon led offense, it was good enough for a Pac-10 title. The best thing the defense did in 2007 was pressure the quarterback. The unit had 38.5 sacks (17th in the nation) for the season. The majority of those sacks, and 7 total starters return to the team in 2008. Led by senior defensive end Nick Reed (team-leading 12 sacks in 2007) the front 7 should once again be able to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks. Oregon’s defense will not rise to an elite level in 2008, but it should improve.

Prediction: Outside the Pac-10, the Ducks have a walkover against Utah State, a dangerous road test at Purdue, and a very sexy showdown with Boise State in Autzen Stadium. The game against Boise State may well determine if the Broncos can qualify for a BCS bowl in 2008. In conference play, the Ducks have only 4 home games, and they must face Southern Cal, Arizona State, and Cal on the road. Even if they lose all 3 of those games (likely), the Ducks should be able to steal a roadie against either Washington State or arch-rival Oregon State and post a winning record in the league.


Arizona
After posting a pathetic offensive showing in 2006, during which they averaged only 253 yards per game (115th in the nation), the Wildcats poached offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes from Texas Tech to resuscitate their dying attack. They still couldn’t run the ball at all (77 yards per game—114th in the nation), but they passed for over 300 yards per game and jumped to 67th in the nation in total offense. However, their total offense was still below average, especially for the Pac-10. In Pac-10 play, they were 7th in yards gained, ahead of only Oregon State, UCLA, and Stanford. If a bowl bid, and a saved job, are in the works for 2008, the offense must continue to improve.

The good news is that offensive improvement could very well happen in 2008. Only a solitary starter from the 2007 team (left tackle) is gone. The quarterback, running back, and top-4 receivers are all back for more in 2008. The quarterback, Willie Tuitama, took a real shine to the new offense in 2007. His passer rating of 134.23 (39th in the nation) was nearly 20 points higher than his rating in 2006 (114.33). Tuitama also displayed surprising durability, a real concern since he missed parts of 6 games in 2006. If Tuitama can maintain and the running game can rise from the abyss the Arizona offense will continue to improve in 2008.

On the other side of the ball, things don’t look quite as rosy. In 2007, the defense, like the offense was the 7th best in the Pac-10 in terms of yards. They return a paltry 3 starters in 2008. 7 of their top-9 tacklers and 75% of their total sacks (19.5 of 26) are gone. A major rebuilding effort will be in order. Thankfully, the offense should be able to keep the team in most games.

Prediction: Arizona does benefit from 5 Pac-10 home games in 2008. Unfortunately, one of them is against Southern Cal. If they can steal a road game at Stanford, and hold serve at home (easier said than done with Cal also on the home slate), they could finish with a winning record in conference play. Outside the league, they host Idaho and Toledo. They should roll over Idaho, and while the Toledo offense may give them problems, they should be able to outscore the Rockets. A winning record in the regular season will likely come down to the 3rd non-conference game at New Mexico. The Lobos shocked the Wildcats in Tucson last season, so this is definitely not a sure thing. While researching Arizona, I came upon an interesting little statistical nugget. If only they could play all their games in November.


Arizona State
After never quite being able to get over the hump in the Dirk Koetter regime, the Sun Devils finally made it in 2007. Under first year head coach Dennis Erickson, the Sun Devils rolled out to an 8-0 start and by season’s end were co-champions of the Pac-10. The Sun Devils were somewhat exposed in the last 5 games when they faced 3 ranked teams (Oregon, Southern Cal, and Texas), and lost all 3 games. Contrast that to their first 8 games when they faced only one ranked foe (Cal). The Sun Devils are due for some regression in 2008, but they will remain a solid Pac-10 team.

Despite their solid credentials (7 conference wins, 10 wins overall, 8-0 start, etc.), the Sun Devils were a mid-level Pac-10 team last season. In conference play, they were 6th in yards gained and 4th in yards allowed. The Sun Devils were able to win such a high percentage of their conference games because they had the best turnover margin (+7) in Pac-10 play, and because they won the close ones. Arizona State was 3-0 in one-score games in 2007, defeating Washington State, UCLA, and Arizona by a combined 10 points.

In 2008, the offense returns 6 starters, including quarterback Rudy Carpenter (145.09 passer rating in 2007—18th in the nation), leading rusher Keegan Herring, and leading receivers Chris McGaha and Michael Jones. 3 starting offensive linemen are gone, but that may be a godsend for Carpenter as the Sun Devils allowed 54 sacks (117th in the nation) last season. All in all, the offense should be at about the same level as last season.

Defensively, the Sun Devils bring back 7 starters from what was basically an average Pac-10 defense. Bookend linemen, Dexter Davis and Luis Vasquez (15 combined sacks in 2007) are perhaps the two most important players. Like the offense, the defense should remain at about the same level as the 2007 unit.

Prediction: The Sun Devils stay in the desert for all their non-conference action, hosting Northern Arizona, UNLV, and in one of the best non-conference matchups (at least on paper)—Georgia. Remember in 2005, the Sun Devils nearly knocked off an LSU team ranked in the top-5 before falling 35-31. A 2-1 non-conference record is the likely worst case scenario. In conference play, the Sun Devils have only 4 home games and the road schedule features 2 almost certain losses (Cal and Southern Cal). With some regression in turnovers and fortune in one-score games, look for the Sun Devils to fall to the middle of the Pac-10.


Oregon State
Guess which team has the second best record in Pac-10 play over the last 2 seasons. Since this is under the Oregon State team preview, chances are you guessed right. Amazingly, the Beavers started out 0-2 in Pac-10 play in both 2006 and 2007, before rallying to win 6 of their last 7 conference games both seasons. No team in the nation has won 19 games in a quieter fashion over the past 2 seasons. Can the Beavers continue the best sustained run of relevance in their history under Mike Riley?

The Beavers won games last year thanks to their front 7. Opponents averaged only 71 yards per game on the ground (tops in the nation) and a meager 2.06 yards per rush (again tops). That number is buoyed by the 41 sacks they collected (10th in the nation), but even without the sacks, the line still held its own against opposing runners. Unfortunately, the front 7 has been decimated by graduation. The entire starting front 7 is gone. The top two-sack men, defensive ends Slade Norris and Victor Butler (combined 19.5 sacks in 2007) are back. However, those two were situation players as evidenced by their 41 combined tackles (nearly half were sacks!). Look for a significant drop off from the Beavers run defense. Last season, only Southern Cal allowed fewer yards in Pac-10 play. In 2008, the Beavers should fall to the middle of the Pac-10 in defensive acumen.

And thank goodness for that outstanding defense in 2007. Because the offense, outside of the running of Yvenson Bernard (over 1200 yards in 2007), was among the worst in the Pac-10. Only the M*A*S*H unit at UCLA and the moribund offensive attack of Stanford gained fewer yards in Pac-10 play. The two-headed quarterbacking monster of Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao helped the Beavers compile a passer rating of 103.90 (114th in the nation). This season, the offense returns 7 starters, including the aforementioned platoon of below average passers. The biggest loss is Bernard who topped 1000 yards on the ground in 2005, 2006, and 2007. However, the Beavers do welcome back wide receiver Sammie Stroughter. Stroughter had nearly 1300 yards receiving in 2006, but Stroughter played only 3 games in 2007, catching a scant 15 passes. If he can approach his 2006 form, either Canfield or Moevao could see improvement in their passing statistics. Overall, it will be hard for the offense to be as bad as last season. However, no one will confuse them with their high-powered brethren in Eugene.

Prediction: The non-conference schedule for the Beavers is fairly daunting. They travel to Beaver Stadium to take on Penn State, host Hawaii, and travel to Salt Lake City to take on a very dangerous mid-major in Utah. 2-1 is the best case with that schedule, and 1-2 may be a more realistic expectation. The Beavers do catch some breaks in the conference schedule, with 5 homes games. Unfortunately, most of the teams they face at home are all among the best in the conference—Southern Cal, Cal, Oregon, and Arizona State. Depending upon how they do outside the league, the Beavers could be back in a bowl for the 6th time in 7 seasons, something unheard of in Corvallis a decade ago.


UCLA
The Bruins have a new head coach which always brings eternal optimism. Will that optimism be justified or is UCLA in for another season in the 6-7 win zone (6 of the last 8)?

Last season, injuries and general suckitude led the Bruins to give significant playing time to 4 quarterbacks. Those gentlemen combined to complete only 47.6% of their passes (116th in the nation). The fact that the Bruins were able to win 6 games (an amazing 5 in Pac-10 play) and nearly upset BYU in the bowl game is a testament to the Bruin defense. The defense allowed 343 yards per game (29th in the nation), and in Pac-10 play, only the uber-strong Trojans and run-stuffing Beavers were better. Unfortunately, that unit loses 6 starters in 2007, including the top-3 tacklers and leading sacker, defensive end Bruce Davis (12 sacks in 2007). The Bruin defense will regress in the first season of the Rick Neuheisel-era.

Of course, while the defense will likely get worse, the offense will almost certainly get better. While the unit returns only 5 starters, and must replace 4 starting offensive linemen, their injury luck cannot be as bad as last season. Whoever wins the starting quarterback job, either incumbent Ben Olson or JUCO transfer Kevin Craft, will certainly put up better numbers than last season.

Prediction: The Bruins should be a little better on offense, and a little worse on defense, and thus end up about where they were last season. In non-conference play, the Bruins host Tennessee on Labor Day night, in a game that could very well kick-start the Neuheisel-era. In their other two games outside the league, they travel to BYU and host Fresno State. A 2-1 record, or perhaps even 3-0, outside the league is very feasible. However, inside the Pac-10 the Bruins should remain a mid-level team.


Washington State
A 4th straight non-winning season got Bill Doba his walking papers. His replacement is Paul Wulff. Wulff fashioned a 53-40 record with 3 playoff appearances in 8 seasons at Eastern Washington. He posted only 1 losing season in his tenure and knows about the culture in Pullman, having played offensive line here in the 1980s.

Last season, only Oregon gained more yards against Pac-10 foes than the Cougars. Led by quarterback Alex Brink, the offense gained 435 yards per game (28th in the nation). However, the team only scored 25.7 yards per game (73rd in the nation), thanks to poor starting field position. The team gained only 19.34 yards per kickoff return (97th in the nation) and 6.50 yards per punt return (95th in the nation). If those special team numbers can improve a little, the Cougar offense could be nearly as productive even with the loss of Brink. Brink’s replacement is senior Gary Rogers, who has thrown all of 52 passes in his first 3 seasons. Rogers will have 4 starting offensive linemen returning to protect him and the team’s leading receiver (Brandon Gibson) to throw to.

Defensively, the Cougars were mediocre to bad in the last 4 seasons of the Doba regime (54th, 108th, 81st, and 87th in total defense). 8 starters are back in 2008, and the only significant loss is safety Husain Abdullah (leading tackler in 2007). After Abdullah, the rest of the top-9 tacklers are back. The Cougars defense should see some improvement in 2008, and may field the best unit since the last bowl season in 2003.

Prediction: Even if they don’t qualify for a bowl game, the Cougars will end the season in Paradise, as they travel to Hawaii in the last regular season game. Besides Hawaii, the Cougars take on Oklahoma State (in Seattle), Portland State, and travel to Baylor. Each game is winnable, but it’s unlikely the Cougars can take all 4. Best case scenario is probably 3-1. In conference play, the Cougars have 5 home games, but 3 of those come against the league’s top teams (Southern Cal, Oregon, and Cal). Still, with a little bit of luck and some better play on special teams, the Cougars could be back in a bowl game for the first time in 5 seasons.


Washington
Since he shocked the world, and set expectations a little high, with a 10-3 record (8-0 start) in his first season at Notre Dame, Tyrone Willingham has not enjoyed much success. To be fair, Willingham inherited a Washington team coming off a 1-10 season, but that cumulative winning percentage of .373 would not be considered a success at many places. Can the Huskies break through in Willingham’s 4th season and get back to a bowl game for the first time since 2002?

Know who the leading returning rusher in the Pac-10 is? Here’s a hint, he’s not a running back. Among Pac-10 players, Jake Locker finished 5th in rushing with 986 yards. The 4 running backs who finished ahead of him will not be back in 2008 (including Louis Rankin, the leading rusher for the Huskies in 2007). While Locker was an excellent runner in 2007, he struggles throwing the football. Locker completed only 47.3% of his passes, and as a team, the Huskies completed only 46% of their throws (117th in the nation). Locker completed more than 50% of his throw in only 4 of 13 games, and was over 60% just once—in the opener versus Syracuse. With a year of experience after being thrown to the wolves as a redshirt freshman, Locker should see his completion percentage climb above 50% for the year, but he will likely still be a below average passer, at least based on accuracy. However, his legs should allow him to remain entrenched as the starter and help the Husky offense continue to improve.

However, if the Huskies are to have any chance at a bowl bid in 2008, the defense must improve. Only Stanford allowed more yards in Pac-10 play last year, and for the season, they finished 103rd in the nation in total defense, permitting 446 yards per game. If we remove the 3 games against offensively challenged Syracuse (114th nationally in yards per game), Stanford (107th), and Oregon State (78th), the Huskies allowed 502 yards per game. The Huskies have not finished better than 95th in total defense in Willingham’s 3 seasons. The defense is not likely to significantly improve in 2008. 6 starters return, but outside of defensive end Daniel Te’o-Nesheim (8.5 sacks in 2007), there is a dearth of playmakers—the team-leader in interceptions, Mesphin Forrester, had 2 last season. No one else had more than 1. Normally a team that only intercepted 11 passes would stand a very good chance of creating significantly more turnovers the next year. However, while they only intercepted 11 passes, they gained 24 turnovers, which was actually about average (59th in the nation).

Prediction: The non-conference schedule features all home games, but each will be very difficult. BYU, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame all travel to Husky Stadium, and it’s likely the Huskies will not be able to win more than one of those games. In conference play, the Huskies have 5 road games and figure to be underdogs in each one (Oregon, Arizona, Southern Cal, Washington State, and Cal). 2008 looks to be another losing year for Willingham and company.


Stanford
The overall record may have been better, but the underlying performance was still the worst in the Pac-10. Stanford had the worst offense in Pac-10 play (about 51 yards per game worse than 9th place UCLA) and the worst defense (only about 7 yards worse than 9th place Washington State). The Cardinal were outgained in all 9 of their Pac-10 games. On the season, the only teams they were able to outgain were San Jose State and Notre Dame. Don’t be fooled by their 4-8 record, the Cardinal have a long way yet to go.

On offense, Stanford returns 7 starters from what was the worst unit in the Pac-10. Tavita Pritchard, who split time at quarterback with TC Ostrander, returns to lead the offense. Pritchard posted an abysmal passer rating of 97.45 last season, and will need marked improvement to become a below-average passer. Pritchard’s top pass-catcher, Richard Sherman, and the team’s leading rusher, Anthony Kimble, also return meaning the offense should be a bit better in 2008. Still, while improvement is likely, the Cardinal should remain at or near the bottom of the Pac-10 in terms of offense.

The Cardinal defense returns 9 starters, including 3 of the top-4 tacklers and may avoid the moniker of the league’s worst defense in 2008. Led by the linebacking duo of Clinton Snyder and Pat Maynor (14 combined sacks in 2007), the Cardinal did manage to tackle opposing quarterbacks behind the line of scrimmage 37.5 times in 2007 (20th in the nation). When they were not able to get to opposing quarterbacks, the secondary struggled. The Cardinal permitted opposing quarterbacks to post a pass efficiency rating of 134.30 in 2007 (84th in the nation). If the secondary can show some improvement (3 starters are back), the Cardinal could rise to the middle of the conference heap in defense.

Prediction: Besides their evisceration of San Jose State, the Cardinal won their other 3 games by a combined 9 points. The non-conference schedule includes the same 3 teams as last season (San Jose State, TCU, and Notre Dame), only now 2 are on the road (TCU and Notre Dame), instead of Palo Alto. Plus TCU and Notre Dame figure to be improved over their 2007 versions. In conference play, the Cardinal have 5 road games, and one of their home games will include an angry and out for revenge Trojan squad. The Cardinal may improve performance-wise, but will fail to match last year’s win total.

Predicted Records:

2008 Big 12 Preview

North Division

Missouri
After failing to win more than 5 Big 12 games in any season since the league’s inception, Missouri sprung onto the national stage with 7 league wins and a North Division title. That title broke the stranglehold that the triumvirate of Kansas State, Nebraska, and Colorado had held on the North since the Big 12 began play in 1996. Can Missouri continue their fine play or are they hurtling back toward Big 12 mediocrity?

Perspective is they key to evaluating Missouri’s seemingly divergent stat line in 2007. The Tigers ranked 5^th in the nation in total offense, averaging a robust 490 yards per game. Defensively, they were rather milquetoast, ranking 59^th in total defense and allowing 379 yards per game. However, if you change the perspective and view the Missouri Tigers through the prism of the Big 12 a different picture emerges. In conference play, the Tigers gained the 3^rd most yards (behind Texas Tech and Oklahoma State) at 489 per game (nearly identical to their overall number). Defensively, though, the Tigers were the best team in the Big 12! They allowed only 354 yards per game to their Big 12 opponents. As you can see from the table below, the Big 12 had a lot of powerful offenses in 2007. Among BCS conferences, only the average Pac-10 school gained more yards in conference play. This helps explain why Missouri’s defense, while rated rather low nationally, was actually pretty good. In 2008, that unit brings back 8 starters and 9 of the top-10 tacklers, so it should once again be one of the better defenses in the Big 12.

Of course, no one watches Missouri games for the defense. They watch to see how many points the Chase Daniel-led offense can produce. The answer should be ‘a lot’ in 2008. Daniel does lose his backfield mate, Tony Temple, and his 1000+ yards on the ground and tight end Martin Rucker (1^st on the team with 84 catches). However, super-soph Jeremy Maclin (over 1000 yards receiving and nearly 400 on the ground) returns and the Tigers have a capable replacement for Rucker in tight end Chase Coffman (he actually caught the 3^rd most passes in 2007). Like the defense, the offense should also be one of the league’s best once again and keep the Tigers on course to play for the Big 12 title.

Prediction: If Illinois didn’t spring the upset last year, it’s not likely they’ll be able to turn the trick this season. That is the only non-conference game to be slightly concerned with. The others (SE Missouri, Nevada, and Buffalo) should be walkovers. Nevada may be one of the better teams in the WAC, but last season Nebraska blistered the Wolfpack defense for over 600 yards. Missouri should have no trouble with them in Columbia. In conference play, the Tigers have two very difficult road tests that will likely keep them out of the MNC picture—at Texas (no wins since 1896) and at Nebraska (no wins since 1978).

Nebraska
Oh how the mighty have fallen. In Bill Callahan’s 4-year tenure, the Huskers posted two losing seasons, an overall record of 27-22, a Big 12 record of 15-17, and suffered a handful of embarrassing defeats (at home to Southern Miss in 2004, giving up 70 to Texas Tech in 2004, and 76 to Kansas in 2006). Not surprisingly, the administration felt now was the time to relieve Callahan of his duties and go in a new direction. That new direction will be navigated by Bo Pelini, a former defensive coordinator and head coach at Nebraska (the 2003 Alamo Bowl). Pelini will have his work cut out for him in 2008, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Huskers allowed an average of 37.9 points per game in 2007. If you guessed that was the highest average the Huskers have ever allowed, give yourself a pat on the back. If you also knew they allowed over 30 per game in 1943 (32.6), well get a life.

So how much improvement can we expect from Nebraska in regard to the parsimoniousness of their defense. Here’s a quick and dirty little study. The table below lists every BCS conference school that allowed at least 35 points per game over the course of an entire season since 2002. Of the 13 total teams, all but Indiana, Duke, and two incarnations of Baylor improved by at least 5 points per game. It’s not going out on a limb to say Nebraska has more talent on defense than Baylor, Indiana, and Duke could ever dream of possessing. Plus, as noted in the Missouri preview, the Big 12 was one of the league’s most conducive to offense in 2007. Now this is not to say that Nebraska was not piss-poor awful on defense in 2007. They were, ranking 112^th in total defense (477 yards per game). However, exponential improvement is not only possible (just from looking at the recent past in the table), it’s probable now that a fiery defensive-minded coach is roaming the sidelines. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Nebraska’s opponents dip below 30 points per game against the Huskers. This may be damning with faint praise, but a touchdown per game improvement is nothing to dismiss.

On offense, the Huskers were pretty good in 2007. They finished 9^th nationally in total offense, gaining 468 yards per game, and in Big 12 play they finished 6^th in yards gained. Of course, a lot of those yards came well after the outcome of some games were decided (think the Southern Cal and Kansas debacles), but the offense was distinctly above average at worst in 2007. In 2008, the Huskers return quarterback Joe Ganz who started the last 3 games after Sam Keller was injured. The one good thing about playing from behind so much in those final 3 contests was that Ganz got some experience throwing the ball (148 pass attempts in the last 3 games). Of course, one can also argue that many of those attempts were against soft defenses since the margins against Kansas and Colorado were out of hand very early. Still, it’s hard to see Ganz as markedly worse than Sam Keller was last season. In all likelihood, the Husker passing attack will be just as efficient in 2008 as it was in 2007. Joining Ganz in the backfield is running back Marlon Lucky. Lucky gained over 1000 yards last season and was also the team’s second-leading receiver. He should once again put up good numbers, in particular running the ball, as the Huskers will likely not be forced to pass so much early on as the defense improves.

Prediction: Not only was Nebraska bad last season, they were also unlucky. Their turnover margin of -17 will trend upward. What was particularly amazing about turnovers for Nebraska last season was the defenses inability to create them. They created only 11 last season (118^th or second to last in the nation). One reason was that the defense rarely got pressure on the quarterback (13 sacks—111^th in the nation), but another was entirely out of the Huskers hands (literally). Nebraska opponents recovered 80% of their own fumbles (12 of 15). That’s an entirely random and unsustainable run of bad luck. Couple those facts with an inviting home schedule where the two new Big 12 North powers (Missouri and Kansas) must come to Lincoln (Missouri hasn’t won in Lincoln since 1978 and Kansas hasn’t won there since 1968) and the pieces are in place for marked improvement. In non-conference action, the only test is a home game with Virginia Tech. Even under Callahan, the Huskers were a solid 19-8 at home, so a win here is not out of the question. Best case for the Huskers is a 9-win regular season with a shot at a 10^th win in the bowl. Worst case is 6 regular season wins and a nondescript bowl game.

Kansas
Kansas reached historic heights in 2007, winning 12 games, tying for the Big 12 North title, and winning the Orange Bowl. The Jayhawks parlayed a soft schedule (they avoided Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech in conference play), some good luck (4-1 in one-score games), and a great turnover margin (+21—tops in the nation) into a spectacular record. The Jayhawks have almost no hope of matching last year’s amazing season, but Kansas appears to be a fixture in the North Division race for the foreseeable future.

Last season the Jayhawk offense absolutely shredded overmatched defenses. They dropped 52 points on Central Michigan, 62 on SE Louisiana, 45 on Toledo, 55 on Florida International, 58 on Baylor, 76 on Nebraska, and 43 on Oklahoma State. Even against good defenses, they were able to score—28 against Missouri in their only loss and 24 in the Orange Bowl win over Virginia Tech. For the season, the Jayhawks averaged 42.8 points per game (2^nd in the nation) and gained 480 yards per game (8^th in the nation). Even in the offensively stacked Big 12, the Jayhawks were above average (they gained the 5^th most yards in conference games). The Jayhawks lose some key players in 2008 (leading rusher Brandon McAnderson, leading receiver Marcus Henry, and their best offensive lineman Anthony Collins), but should remain quite stout on offense. Quarterback Todd Reesing (148.73 passer rating in 2007—13^th in the nation) returns for another year. His backfield mate will likely be Jake Sharp, who gained over 800 yards himself in 2007. Sharp should acceptably replace the departed McAnderson’s production. Dexton Fields and Dezmon Briscoe (combined for over 100 catches, 1300 yards, and 13 touchdowns in 2007) should see more balls thrown their way and help ease the loss of Henry. The Jayhawk offense will not be quite as prolific in 2008, but it would be a great shock if they don’t average 30 points per game.

As good as the offense was, the Jayhawk defense may have been the bigger story in 2007. The defense allowed only 16.4 points per game (4^th in the nation) and only one team (Missouri) was able to consistently move the ball when the game was on the line. The defense returns 9 starters, but one of the losses is quite significant. Corner Aqib Talib (team-leading 5 interceptions in 2007) has gone to the next level. Aside from Talib though, nearly every other significant player is back. The only problem is that the defense played over its head in 2007. The Jayhawks created an amazing 35 turnovers (tied for 4^th in the nation) in 2007. Those turnovers not only put the offense in great position to score, it also kept opponents from scoring (duh right?). The prospect of the Jayhawks gaining that many turnovers in 2008 is slim to none. The defense should still be quite good, but it will likely move from the top of the Big 12 (2^nd in yards allowed in Big 12 play in 2007) towards the middle.

Prediction: The schedule is tougher and the Jayhawks luck will probably be worse, but Kansas still has the potential to be a very good team. The non-conference slate features 3 sure wins (Florida International, Louisiana Tech, and Sam Houston State) and one very intriguing game at South Florida. In Big 12 play, two of the road tests are very tough (Oklahoma and Nebraska) and the home schedule has some pot holes (Texas and Texas Tech), but the Jayhawks should once again post a winning record in Big 12 play.

Colorado
After a disastrous 2006 season that saw Colorado lose to both Montana State and Colorado State en route to a 2-10 season, the 6-7 finish in 2007 was a substantial improvement. That’s not to say Colorado was a good team in 2007. On the contrary, they were a mediocre team that pulled off one major upset (knocking off 3^rd ranked Oklahoma 27-24) another minor one (at Texas Tech) and crapped the bed against an Iowa State team they led 21-0. Otherwise, they basically beat the teams they should and lost to the teams that were better than them. Colorado may be better in 2008, but the schedule will prevent them from returning to a bowl game.

In 2007, the Colorado offense improved substantially throwing the football, thanks primarily to the addition of quarterback Cody Hawkins. The team completed only 46.9% of their passes (117^th in the nation) and averaged a paltry 5.6 yards per pass (109^th in the nation) in 2006. Those numbers jumped to 56.1% (81^st in the nation) and 6.4 yards per pass (87^th in the nation). The Buffs were still a below average passing team, but they were no longer an abysmal one. Hawkins returns along with 5 other starters in 2008. His two leading receivers, fellow sophomores Scotty McKnight and Josh Smith, are back so the passing game should continue its upward trajectory in 2008. The Buffs do lose leading rusher Hugh Charles (1071 yards in 2007) and 3 starting offensive linemen, so the running attack may suffer a bit of a decline.

Befitting their 6-7 record, the Buffs defense was below average as well in 2007. Their national rank in total defense (64^th) is mediocre, but in Big 12 play, only 3 teams (Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Nebraska) allowed more yards. The Buffs had a real problem pressuring opposing passer, netting only 20 sacks all season (95^th in the nation in sacks per game). Their best defensive player, tackle George Hypolite (6 sacks and 11 tackles for loss in 2007), is back along with 7 other starters. The Buffs defense should be marginally improved in 2008 and trend toward the middle of the Big 12.

Prediction: The schedule is a nightmare. In conference play, the Buffs must travel to Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Nebraska. Any record other than 1-3 in that stretch is hopelessly optimistic. Texas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State must come to Boulder, so the Buffs must take care of business at home. That’s not a given either by the way. In the new century, Colorado is a very average 27-19 in home games. That winning percentage ranks ahead of only Baylor among Big 12 teams. That’s very surprising considering the elevation in Boulder. But I digress. The non-conference slate is not easy either. The Buffs host a likely top-10 foe in West Virginia and travel to Jacksonville to take on Florida State. Elsewhere they have a gimme against Eastern Washington and open the season with rival Colorado State. The Buffs have beaten the Rams 4 of the last 5 years, but each game has been decided by 7 points or fewer. If Colorado wins more than 6 games, Dan Hawkins is the coach of the year.

Kansas State
It wasn’t as dramatic as the tailspin I witnessed in Columbia, but the Wildcats limped to the finish as well, losing their last 4 games and 5 of 6 to end what seemed like a shot at a very good year at 5-7. Did something change in those last 6 games? Yes something did change. The defense fell off the map. It should be noted that in the first 6 games, 3 were against offensively challenged schools Auburn (97^th in total offense), San Jose State (88^th in total offense), and Missouri State (IAA). Still, the Wildcats held the explosive Texas offense (13^th in total offense) to only 330 yards. And it’s not as if the 2^nd half of the schedule didn’t include lightweights too—Baylor (85^th in total offense) and Iowa State (102^nd in total offense) were the only teams Kansas State held under 400 yards in the last 6 games. They were equal opportunity awful too—as likely to get beat on the ground as through the air. Oklahoma State rushed for over 300 yards, Nebraska passed for over 500, and Fresno State had 200 on the ground and 300 in the air. The bad guys in Death Wish had a better chance at offing Charles Bronson than Kansas State had of stopping anyone. So what’s in store for 2008?

While the defense was getting torched over the 2^nd half of the season, Josh Freeman was busy maturing into a solid quarterback. After an awful freshman season during which he posted a passer rating of 103.45 (96^th in the nation) and completed just a shade over half his passes (51.9%) with an awful TD/Int ratio of 6-15, Freeman upped his completion percentage to 63.3, his ratio to 18-11, and his passer rating to 127.26 (60^th in the nation—one spot ahead of Matt Ryan). Freeman will surely pass Lynn Dickey as the school’s all-time leader in passing yards by late October, and could help turn the Wildcats into one of the league’s better offenses. Freeman will miss his leading receiver, Jordy Nelson (2^nd in the nation with 122 catches in 2007), but his offensive line returns nearly intact (4 of 5 starters are back). The offense will miss Nelson, but if Freeman continues to improve the offense should be fine.

Now back to the defense. The good news I suppose, is that the majority of the starters from last season’s free-falling defense are gone. Only 5 starters return. Their best defensive player, defensive end Ian Campbell is back. Campbell had only 4.5 sacks in 2007 after netting 11.5 in 2006. One of the main reasons for his decline was that he was moved to linebacker when the Wildcats switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense. Back at end, he should see his sack total climb. In a nod to their history under Bill Snyder, a ton of JUCO talent will be filling the void left by the departing players. Since the JUCOs are such an unknown quantity, it’s hard to say how good the defense will be in 2008. It’s pretty certain though that they will not be as bad as they were over the last 6 games of 2007.

Prediction: At least a 3-1 record is assured before the Wildcats begin Big 12 play (North Texas, Montana State, and Louisiana-Lafayette come to Manhattan and the Wildcats travel to Louisville). In conference play, the Wildcats must travel to Missouri and Kansas, two teams they have yet to beat under Prince. They also don’t get any favors in their home games—Texas Tech and Oklahoma are two of their draws from the South. Unless the JUCO talent is lights out, it’s hard to envision Kansas State in postseason play in 2008.

Iowa State
The jury is still out on how successful Gene Chizik will be at Iowa State. His first team didn’t win many games (3-9) or produce a lot of offense—327 yards per game (102^nd in the nation). However, there were some memorable moments—a win over rival Iowa, a win over Kansas State, and a thrilling comeback victory over Colorado. The Cyclones were also competitive against eventual Big 12 champ Oklahoma, losing only 17-7. If 2008 is anything, it will be a year of new beginnings.

For the first time since 2003, the Cyclone quarterback will not be Bret Meyer. Meyer departs as the Cyclones all-time leading passer, but too often the offenses he led failed to move the ball or score points. Part of that is the fact that the team never averaged more than 3.2 yards per rush during Meyer’s tenure. So spread the blame around to the line and running backs too. The new quarterback is Austen Arnaud, a more nimble player. Arnaud’s ability to run may help the offense break the mythical 4 yards per carry barrier. The Cyclones lose not only their all-time leading passer, but also their all-time leading receiver. Todd Blythe, who hauled in 52 balls last season, is gone. However, the Cyclones bring back 4 of 5 starting offensive linemen and their other two top receivers (RJ Sumrall and Marquis Hamilton). The Cyclones were the worst offense in Big 12 play last season. They should improve marginally, but not significantly.

The Cyclone defense was actually decent last season, despite the fact that they gave up 31.8 points per game (93^rd in the nation). Based on yards allowed (327 per game), they were a much more respectable 65^th in the nation and in Big 12 play only they were 7^th in yards allowed. The unit returns 7 starters in 2008, so more marginal improvement is likely. However, I would not expect any miracles.

Prediction: A 2-0 start is likely, with South Dakota State and Kent State to open the season. The Cyclones then travel to Iowa City to take on the rival Hawkeyes. Iowa has won the last two in Iowa City, but they have been decided by 7 and 10 points respectively. A 3-0 start is not out of the realm of possibility. Next up is a trap road game at what may be one of the most improved Mountain West teams, UNLV. A 4-0 start would be great, but 3-1 or even 2-2 is more likely. In Big 12 play, the Cyclones unfortunately get their most winnable games on the road—Baylor, Oklahoma State, Colorado, and Kansas State. Their home schedule is very tough—Kansas, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Missouri. It will be hard for the Cyclones to match last year’s 2 Big 12 wins.

South Division

Texas
Last season, the Longhorns lost 3 (regular season) games in Big 12 play for the first time since 1997. The Horns fell to Oklahoma, arch-rival Texas A&M (for the 2^nd straight season), and Kansas State (also for the 2^nd straight season). If the Horns can avenge two of those losses (they don’t play Kansas State), a Big 12 title may be in their future.

Last season, the Texas offense was led by running back Jamaal Charles who gained over 1600 yards and averaged 6.28 yards per rush. Unfortunately for the Horns, Charles bolted early for the NFL and must be replaced. Fortunately for his replacement, either redshirt freshman Foswhitt Whittaker or a trio of returnees, 4 of the 5 starting offensive linemen return, so there should be plenty of holes to run through. Quarterback Colt McCoy also returns for his junior season and looks to improve upon a somewhat disappointing sophomore campaign. As a freshman in 2006, McCoy posted a passer rating of 161.82 (8^th in the nation) and threw only 7 interceptions. In 2007, his rating fell to 139.16 (24^th in the nation) and his interception total jumped to 18. Even if he only maintains his performance from 2007, the Texas passing attack should remain quite potent. It’s likely that his interception total will drop precipitously and his passer rating will climb back towards the top-10. McCoy does lose his leading receiver Nate Jones, but two starting receivers return and as mentioned earlier, the offensive line returns nearly intact. The Longhorns offense should once again be one of the best in the Big 12.

The Texas defense was somewhat disappointing in 2007. The unit allowed 371 yards per game (52^nd in the nation), but as has been mentioned ad nauseum in this post, the Big 12 featured many talented offenses in 2007. In conference play, the Longhorns finished a solid 4^th in yards allowed (behind Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma). That’s the good news. The bad news is that Texas returns only 4 starters on defense in 2008. 3/4^ths of the secondary and 2/3^rds of the linebackers are gone so the back end of the defense may suffer some growing pains. Still, the Horns defense should remain in the middle of the Big 12 pack at worst.

Prediction: The toughest task the Horns face in non-conference action is at home against Arkansas. With the personnel losses in Fayetteville and the fact that the game is in Austin, that one shouldn’t be too difficult either. In conference play, the Horns have only 3 road games (Colorado, Texas Tech, and Kansas). Neither of those will be easy, but the Horns will certainly take at least 1 and possibly 2 of those games. The Horns other two tough tests come at home against Missouri and in Dallas against Oklahoma. If they can knock off the Tigers at home and beat Oklahoma for the 3^rd time in 4 years, the Big 12 South will be theirs.

Oklahoma
Another year, another BCS bid for Oklahoma. Under Bob Stoops, the Sooners have appeared in 6 BCS bowl games in 9 seasons (5 of the last 6 years). Can the Sooners make it 7 for 10 and 6 for 7 in 2008?

Before evaluating Oklahoma’s prospects for 2008, it’s important to take a look back at what they actually did in 2007. Overall, the Sooners prolific offense averaged 449 yards per game (19^th in the nation). However, in their 8 regular season Big 12 games, the Sooners were actually below average. 8 other Big 12 teams gained more yards in conference play. Only Colorado, Baylor, and Iowa State gained fewer yards against Big 12 foes. The Sooners obliterated non-conference patsies North Texas and Utah State, gaining 1285 yards in those two games to pad their offensive statistics. Despite those below average conference numbers, the Sooners got some very good performances from their offensive skill players in 2007. Freshman quarterback Sam Bradford led the nation in passer rating (176.53). However, as I’ve said before, expecting Bradford to repeat his spectacular performance is pure folly. Bradford will still be a great quarterback, but his numbers won’t match those from 2007. Returning along with Bradford on the offensive side of the ball in 2008 are all 5 starting offensive linemen and his leading receiver Juaquin Iglesias. The Sooner offense should no longer be at the bottom of the Big 12 in yards gained, but don’t expect them to be at the top of the league either.

As is usually the case under Stoops, the Sooner defense was once again top-notch in 2007. The Sooners allowed 338 yards per game (26^th in the nation) and in Big 12 play, they finished second to Missouri in yards allowed. The Sooners allowed over 400 yards only 4 times during the season (Missouri, Baylor!?, Texas Tech, and West Virginia). This season, the defense returns only 5 starters and the Sooners lose their top-4 tacklers. Still with the talent Stoops has brought to Norman since he arrived, the defense should continue to be one of the league’s best, though not necessarily elite.

Prediction: The Sooners open the season with sure-fire beatdown of Chattanooga, then face what should be a rebuilding Cincinnati squad. The next game is an intriguing road trip to Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies. The final non-conference game against TCU is an opportunity of sorts for revenge. The Horned Frogs are the last team to beat the Sooners in Norman. A 4-0 record is likely for the Sooners outside the league. In conference play, the South title likely come down to the neutral site battle with Texas. One of the 3 conference road games besides Baylor likely holds a loss (Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State). The Sooners were not quite as dominant based on down-to-down performance as their record indicated in 2007. Consequently, they will fail to meet the grand expectations set for them in 2008.

Texas Tech
Another year, another bowl game for the Red Raiders. Mike Leach has turned the Texas Tech program into the best darn 3^rd wheel in the Big 12 South. How has he done it? By beating those directly below him. He’s gone 6-2 in his 8 seasons against Texas A&M and 5-3 against Oklahoma State, the two teams competing against him for positioning below the two South Division juggernauts—Oklahoma and Texas. Can the Red Raiders finally break through the glass ceiling of the Big 12’s caste system and take the South title?

Offensively, the Red Raiders should once again light up the scoreboard. It should come as a surprise to no one that the Red Raiders finished 2^nd in the nation in total offense, averaging a robust 530 yards per game. That unit returns every starter save one in 2008. The lone missing piece is wide receiver Danny Amendola. Amendola caught 109 passes for over 1200 yards last season, but that wasn’t even close to leading the team. Freshman Michael Crabtree exploded onto the scene grabbing 134 balls for 1962 yards and 22 touchdowns. With so much returning talent and experience, the Red Raiders should not miss a beat on offense.

The Tech defense was decent last season, ranking 45^th in the nation in total defense, allowing 365 yards per game. In Big 12 play, they were the 5^th best defense in terms of yards allowed, behind the usual suspects in the South (Oklahoma and Texas) and the unusual suspects in the North (Missouri and Kansas). In 2008, the Red Raiders may field the best defense in Leach’s tenure. 8 starters are back with the only major loss being safety and leading tackler Joe Garcia. The entire defensive line, that produced 18 of the team’s 26 sacks in 2007, returns for 2008. Tech’s defense should drastically improve and keep the Red Raiders in contention for the Big 12 South title.

Prediction: The non-conference slate includes two games against IAA foes (Eastern Washington and Massachusetts), though to be fair both squads made the playoffs last season, a home game against what should be an improved SMU squad, and a game that could see over 100 combined points at Nevada. A 4-0 start should be in the cards. In conference play, the Red Raiders have a brutal road schedule (Kansas State, Texas A&M, Kansas, and Oklahoma). Realistically 2 wins in those 4 games is the most a Red Raider fan can expect, especially considering the Red Raiders recent history of not showing up for at least one game per season. In 2005, Texas Tech’s 9-win regular season was undermined by a road loss to Oklahoma State (the lone Big 12 win for the Cowboys). In 2006, the Red Raiders were blown out (30-6) by a Colorado team that won only 2 games overall. In 2007, the Red Raiders lost at home to a Colorado team against whom they were favored by nearly 2 touchdowns (13-point spread). On the other hand, the home slate, besides Texas, is very winnable (Nebraska, Oklahoma State, and Baylor). If the Red Raiders can slip by Texas in Lubbock, they should find themselves in the Cotton Bowl on January 1^st for the 2^nd time in 4 seasons.

Oklahoma State
Consecutive 7-6 seasons fueled by spectacular offensive performances and moribund defensive showings have certainly been entertaining, but the Cowboys should have their sights set on achieving a Texas Tech-like perch in the Big 12 South pecking order. Can the defense show a little improvement in 2008, and give the Cowboys more than 7 wins for the first time since 2003?

Ah defense, the bane of Mike Gundy’s existence. If we don’t consider the Cowboys wins over Florida Atlantic and Sam Houston State, where they allowed a combined 9 points, the Cowboys points allowed totals in their wins were as follows: 45 in a win over Texas Tech, 14 in a whitewashing of Nebraska in Lincoln, 39 in a win over Kansas State, 14 in a win over Baylor, and 33 in the bowl win over Indiana. That’s 29 points per game in their wins! In the losses it was much worse. 35 to Georgia, 41 in an embarrassing loss to Troy on national television, 24 in a 1-point defeat to Texas A&M, 38 in a game they led by 21 in the 4^th quarter to Texas, 43 in a loss to Kansas, and 49 in a drubbing by Oklahoma. 34.7 per game in the losses. The Cowboys were 101^st in the nation in total defense, allowing 443 yards per game. That wasn’t entirely a product of playing in the Big 12 either. Only 2 teams (Baylor and Nebraska) allowed more yards in conference play. 6 starters are back on defense in 2008. That may or may not be a good thing depending on your perspective. In all likelihood, the Cowboys defense will probably be about the same in 2008. They should be a little better, as the 2007 squad only forced 19 turnovers (94^th in the nation) all season. A few more quick changes will help the defense keep scoring down a little, but a dramatic shift in points allowed won’t happen.

Offensively, the Cowboys were the epitome of balance in 2007. They averaged 243 yards per game on the ground and 243 yards per game through the air. Overall, they ranked 7^th in the nation in total offense and were 2^nd in yards gained in Big 12 play. The Cowboys return 7 starters in 2008, but do suffer one significant loss in running back Dantrell Savage. Savage gained over 1200 yards and averaged 5.70 yards per rush in 2007. Whoever replaces Savage will have an offensive line that returns 4 of 5 starters, so the running attack should not suffer a great dip in production. As far as throwing the ball, the Cowboys may suffer a little decline as well, with the loss of leading receiver Adarius Bowman. However, with quarterback Zac Robinson (passer rating of 148.58—14^th in the nation) returning and 80% of an offensive line that allowed only 11 sacks (3^rd in the nation) in 2007 back, the passing should still be very prolific.

Prediction: The defense will get a little better and the offense will get a little worse. Sounds like the makings of another 4-4 season in Big 12 play. However, with no Georgia and 3 home non-conference games (Houston, Missouri State, and Troy) the Cowboys could top 7 wins. The opener against Washington State should be fun to watch. The Cougars have not had much of a defense recently, but playing what amounts to a virtual road game many miles from home could result in a closer than expected game. If the Cowboys win there, they will top 7 wins before the bowl.

Texas A&M
Was their a more unsexy coaching hire in the offseason than Texas A&M’s acquisition Mike Sherman to lead their program? I can’t think of one. Sherman inherits a team that was a very mediocre 32-28 under his predecessor Dennis Franchione. In fact, for most of the new century (5 times in 8 seasons), the Aggies have won between 5 and 7 games, making them a perennial fringe bowl team. Will Sherman take them back to a bowl in 2008 or does it have to get worse before it gets better?

The Aggies stats befit a team that finished the 2007 season 7-6 and 4-4 in Big 12 play. Overall they ranked 58^th in total offense (397 yards per game) and 83^rd in total defense (416 yards per game). In Big 12 play, they ranked 8^th in yards gained and 6^th in yards allowed—below average offensively and defensively. In 2008, the Aggie offense returns most of the skill position players, but must replace 4 starting offensive linemen. While the skill guys get the glory, it’s often the linemen who make the offense go. Quarterback Stephen McGee and running backs Mike Goodson and the portly Jorvorskie Lane may find there are fewer holes for them to plow through in 2008. The Aggies averaged over 5 yards per carry in 2005 and 2006. Even last season, they averaged a very good 4.78 yards per rush (24^th in the nation). Look for a steep decline in those numbers and for the offense in general as their new offensive line struggles to find consistency.

Defensively, the Aggies also bring back only 5 starters. All 4 starters return in the secondary meaning the front 7 brings back only one starter, defensive end Cyril Obiozor. Obiozor led the team with 3.5 sacks last season. That’s not a misprint, as the Aggies managed only 18 as a team. On a per game basis, that comes to about 1.39 (104^th in the nation). Don’t expect the Aggies to resemble their ‘Wrecking Crew’ units from the 1990s.

Prediction: Not only should the Aggies be a little worse on both sides of the ball in 2008, their luck should also be shoddier. The Aggies turned the ball over only 17 times in 2007 (14^th in the nation). They did this by falling on over 65% of their own fumbles (recovered 17 of 26). Fumbles are a totally random aspect of football, and tend to hover around 50%. I guarantee that the Aggies will lose more than 9 fumbles in 2008. Now let’s examine the schedule. Arkansas State and Army should be easy wins in non-conference play. The other two non-conference games (at New Mexico and against Miami in College Station) are likely wins, but could also go the other way. New Mexico also field a competitive team under Rocky Long, and last season won at Arizona. Miami, though down, is still Miami, so it’s not safe to assume a perfect 4-0 record in non-conference play. In conference play, the Aggies have a somewhat favorable schedule (winnable road games at Baylor and Iowa State) as well as home contests against Kansas State and Colorado. If the Aggies can sweep those 4 games, they will go bowling. As it is, aside from the aberrational 2006 season when they went 4-0 on the road, the Aggies have fared quite poorly away from home recently. They were only 8-16 in true road games under Coach Fran. A 5^th place finish in the Big 12 South is in store for Mike Sherman in his first season.

Baylor
3 seasons ago, Baylor came oh so close to qualifying for a bowl game, finishing 5-6 overall. Even as recently as 2006, the Bears were a respectable 3-5 in Big 12 play. The bottom fell out on Guy Morriss and the Bears in 2007, as they failed to win a single Big 12 game. Morriss is gone and his replacement, Art Briles (formerly of the Houston Cougars) will look to do what no one has been able to accomplish in the history of the Big 12—get Baylor to a bowl game.

The Bears ranked 85^th in the nation in total offense in 2007, gaining only 351 yards per game. In Big 12 play, only one team (Iowa State) gained fewer yards than the Bears. In their 8 Big 12 games, the Bears scored more than 20 points twice—23 against Colorado and 21 against Oklahoma. Moving the ball was a real issue for the team. Several things should allow the offense to be more productive in 2008. First and foremost, the team returns 8 and possibly 9 starters, depending on who wins the quarterback job (more on that in a moment). 4 of last season’s 5 starters on the offensive line return, so that unit should be much more consistent. Blake Szymanski started at quarterback last season and posted a passer rating of 117.06 (86^th in the nation). He will be pushed in the preseason by Miami transfer Kirby Freeman (deplorable rating of 64.49 in 2007) and true freshman Robert Griffin. My money is on anyone but Freeman taking the reigns and posting decent numbers. The next reason to expect offensive improvement is because Art Briles is the coach. At Houston, Briles’ teams posted a 34-28 record in 5 seasons, played in 4 bowl games, and averaged over 30 points per game 3 seasons. He was a great hire for Baylor and may be just what they needed to get them out of their bowl drought.

Defensively, the Bears were atrocious in 2007. They allowed 462 yards per game (110^th in the nation) and in Big 12 play, only Nebraska allowed more yards. The prospects for improvement are not as great as those of the offense, but the defense should be better. 6 starters return, including the top-2 tacklers, safety Jordan Lake and linebacker Joe Pawelek. The same table I used earlier for Nebraska applies here as well. The Bears gave up 37 points per game last season, so simple regression should ensure the defense is at least a little better in 2008.

Prediction: The Bears have some positive indicators heading into 2008. Their turnover margin of -18 was the worst in the nation in 2007. It will likely improve at least a tad in 2008. The Bears also had the good fortune of acquiring a very good offensive-minded head coach in Art Briles. However, after looking at the schedule, predicting a break out season for Baylor is not prudent. Outside of their South division foes, the Bears draw Missouri at home and must travel to Nebraska in two of their games against the North. The other is very winnable, at home against Iowa State. Outside the league, the only sure win is against Northwestern State. The Bears will likely be underdogs in the other 3 (Wake Forest and Washington State at home and at Connecticut). The Bears will win at least one Big 12 game, but with a tougher non-conference schedule, may not match 2007’s overall win total.

Predicted Records: