2025 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: MAC

 Last week we looked at how MAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2025 MAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, MAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half to determine if a team significantly over or underperformed relative to their APR. By that standard, Ball State significantly exceeded their APR while Toledo underperformed. Toledo also underachieved relative to their expected record based on YPP and we went over some reasons for that last week. Meanwhile, Ball State somehow won three conference games in Mike Uremovich's first season in charge despite playing atrocious football for the majority of the season. The Cardinals played at an average to good level in three of their eight MAC games, but managed to come out on top in all three. Two of the victories were by less than a touchdown. Meanwhile, all five of their conference losses came by double digits, with the Cardinals being outscored by 121 points in those five games. 

Go West, Young Man

Last week, we conducted a deep dive on new MAC member Sacramento State's (limited) history traveling east and their performance against FBS teams. This week, I want to look at how the rest of the conference has fared when traveling west. 

Not counting Sacramento State, there are twelve MAC teams nestled mostly in the midwest, with two located a little further east. Perhaps not surprisingly, those other MAC schools have not made a lot of trips to California. That will change with the Hornets entry into the conference. Sacramento State will host four MAC schools in 2026 (Kent State, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Toledo) and assuming they stick around for a few years, will probably eventually host the other eight. How have the current crop of MAC schools fared when making the trek to the Golden State? To answer that question, I looked at all instances of current MAC schools playing road games in the state of California in the BCS/CFP era (since 1998). Five of the current MAC schools (Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Massachusetts, and Miami) have not played a road game in California in that span. The performance of the other (magnificent) seven is summarized in the table below. I included the point spread in the game to provide some context regarding who the betting markets expected to win. 

Those trips out west have resulted in more metaphorical deaths due to dysentery or typhoid than they have striking it rich in the gold mines. MAC schools are 1-9 straight up and just slightly better 3-7 ATS in California. Note the lone win occurred this past season when Central Michigan upset San Jose State as a prohibitive underdog. Also note that eight of those ten games have come against teams in their own theoretical weight class rather than against power conference opponents. With four cracks at it in 2026, including one by the best team on paper in the conference, I expect the MAC schools to win a road game in California for the second consecutive season.