2008 Conference USA Preview

East

Southern Miss
It’s the dawning of a new era in Hattiesburg. For the first time in 17 years, the Golden Eagles will not be led into action by Jeff Bower. Bower was forced to resign prior to the bowl game last season, and though he had a very good run, it can be argued a change was due. The new head coach is Larry Fedora, most recently employed as the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State. Fedora has a decent rep as an offensive guru and that is exactly what Southern Miss needs to return to the top of the conference. In a league that definitely skews toward offense, Fedora could be just what the doctor ordered.
The Golden Eagle offense was severely lacking last season, particularly in league play. Only 2 teams gained fewer yards in Conference USA action—East Carolina! and UAB. The passing game was particularly poor. Senior quarterbacks Jeremy Young and Stephen Reaves helped the Golden eagles post a passer rating of only 114.90—88th in the nation. Young and Reaves have matriculated and the projected starter is Martevious Young, who broke his leg against Rice after throwing only 1 pass. The nouveau Young will be aided by the return of the team’s best player, running back Damion Fletcher. Fletcher gained nearly 1586 yards last season while averaging 5.38 yards per rush. He topped 100 yards in 9 of the team’s 13 games and with 2974 rushing yards in only 2 seasons, he stands a great chance at toppling Ben Garry (3595 yards) as the team’s all-time leading rusher. The team does lose 3 starters along the offensive line, so Fletcher’s numbers may decline a bit. Elsewhere on the offensive side, the Golden Eagles return their top-2 receivers from last season—receiver Torris Magee and tight end Shawn Nelson. The running game may not be as productive as last season, but Fedora should open up the offense and allow the unit to post much better overall numbers.

The Golden Eagles were their usual stingy selves on defense last season. Only Central Florida allowed fewer yards against Conference USA foes. The defense will be hard-pressed to repeat last season’s performance as they lose 4 of their top-7 tacklers including all 4 starting defensive linemen. The Golden Eagles do return their best defender, linebacker Gerald McRath. McRath led the team and was 12th in the nation with 139 tackles last season. The Golden Eagles should decline defensively, but it should be mentioned that they have not allowed more than 24.8 point per game in the past decade.

Prediction: Outside the league, the Golden Eagles play 2 Sun Belt squads (Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State), an SEC school (Auburn), and a WAC team (Boise State). Unless they can upset Boise State in Hattiesburg, that looks like break even schedule. In league play, the Golden Eagles have the good fortune of missing the 2 strongest teams from Conference USA West (Houston and Tulsa). For that reason, I’ll peg them as the champion of the East.


Marshall
The end could be drawing near for head coach Mark Snyder. His 3 Herd teams have gone 12-23 (10-14 in Conference USA) and have yet to qualify for a bowl game. It doesn’t help matters that the man Snyder replaced, Bob Pruett, is a legend in Huntington. The good news for Snyder is that this is certainly his best team yet, and could easily make its way to a bowl game or even the Conference USA Championship Game.

Last season, Marshall featured an offense that was below average by Conference USA standards. In league play, only Southern Miss, East Carolina, and UAB gained fewer yards. Unlike Southern Miss, Marshall got solid play from the quarterback position. Bernard Morris posted a passer rating of 139.09 (27th in the nation) and also rushed for 488 yards. But like his brethren in Hattiesburg, Morris has exhausted his eligibility and must be replaced. His likely replacement is redshirt freshman Mark Cann. Cann has the good fortune of a solid running back to hand off to in sophomore running back Darius Marshall. Marshall gained 631 yards on the ground last season (led team) and averaged 5.13 yards per rush. With 3 starting offensive linemen returning, Marshall could be one of the league’s best running backs in 2008. Elsewhere, the Herd also return their 4-leading receivers from last season. That unit is highlighted by one of the best tight ends you’ve never heard of—Cody Slate. Slate has led the team in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns in both of his seasons as a member of the Herd. The Herd will also welcome the services of South Carolina transfer OJ Murdock to their already steady receiving corps. The Marshall offense, despite the loss of Morris, should improve in 2008.

Marshall’s defense was average by conference standards last season. They finished 6th in yards allowed in league play. They should be substantially improved in 2008 thanks to the addition (return) of one player. Albert McClellan accumulated 11.5 sacks in 2006 and was named the Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year. McClellan tore his ACL last summer and missed the entire 2007 season. His return, along with 8 other starters should make the Herd one of the most improved defenses in 2008. In addition, the defense should fare much better at forcing turnovers. They forced a puny 7 last season (worst in the nation), and a few more forced turnovers will put the offense in better position to score.

Prediction: The Herd have a difficult non-conference slate. After opening the season against Illinois State (IAA), they must travel to Wisconsin and West Virginia before hosting Cincinnati. The best chance for a win against that triumvirate would be against the Bearcats, but even that is a long-shot. In conference play, the Herd must travel to Southern Miss and also face Tulsa and Houston from the West (albeit at home). For those reasons, the improvement won’t be quite enough to get the Herd to the top of the league standings.


Central Florida
For the 2nd time in 3 seasons, the Knights advanced to the Conference USA Championship Game last year. Their nemesis in the title game was Tulsa (same opponent in 2005). The Knights exacted some revenge for their loss 2 years before and won their first conference title in school history. Though the team went on to lose the Liberty Bowl to Mississippi State, a 10-4 record is nothing to sneeze at considering they were 0-11 in 2004. Can the Knights defend their division and conference title in 2008?

Last season the Knights’ offense was led by a player you may have heard of. Kevin Smith led the nation in rushing (2567 yards) and rushing touchdowns (29). In a wise decision, Smith opted to forego his senior season and was selected in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. The running attack will certainly not attain 2007’s levels as 3 starting offensive linemen also depart. The team also loses quarterback Kyle Israel who posted solid passing numbers last season (quarterback rating of 128.73 ranked 57th in the nation). Israel’s likely replacement is junior Michael Greco. Greco saw significant action in only 2 games last season, torching Memphis (11 of 12 for 151 yards) while struggling against South Florida (6 of 16 for 71 yards). The 3 leading receivers from last year’s team are back so Greco should post decent numbers. Last season the Knights gained the 3rd most yards in league play. With so much attrition, particularly at running back, quarterback, and along the offensive line, the offense will take a tumble.

Know who had the best defense in Conference USA play last season? That’s right, it was Central Florida. The Knights edged out Southern Miss by allowing about a yard less per conference game in 2008. Despite all the praise and adoration heaped upon Kevin Smith, it was the defense that carried the team. Consider this: The Knights held Tulsa (tops in the nation and Conference USA in total offense) to their lowest output of the season (379 yards) in their regular season encounter. The Golden Hurricane were able to rack up 470 yards in the rematch in the Conference USA Championship Game, but that was their 4th lowest yardage total on the season. All told, Central Florida allowed only 4 of their opponents to top 400 yards—Texas, South Florida, SMU, and Tulsa. 9 starters return for 2008, including the top-7 tacklers. The Knights will miss Leger Douzable, who led the team with 7.5 sacks last season, but with so many returning starters, the Knights should remain one of the league’s top defenses.

Prediction: The Knights face 3 BCS foes in their non-conference schedule (South Florida, Boston College, and Miami). The Knights could conceivably steal one of those 3 and adding that to the South Carolina State win would give them 2 outside the league. In conference play, the Knights host SMU, Southern Miss, East Carolina, and UAB but have dangerous road games at UTEP, Tulsa, Marshall, and Memphis. 4-4 in conference play seems about right, and a bowl game is a definite possibility depending on how the non-conference games turn out.


East Carolina
The Pirates are the chic pick by many to win the East, and possibly the whole shebang in 2008. On the surface, this seems to be a pretty logical selection. In the 3 seasons Skip Holtz has been at the helm, the Pirates have improved their win total (5, 7, and 8) and conference win total (4, 5, and 6) each season. Fresh off a bowl win over the most consistent mid-major program over the past decade, it makes sense to anoint them as the favorites, doesn’t it?

As previously mentioned in the Southern Miss section, the Pirates actually had one of the league’s worst offenses on a down-to-down basis. Only a solitary team (UAB) gained fewer yards than the Pirates in Conference USA play. That’s not to say the Pirates didn’t post some good offensive showings, but the majority of those came against poor defenses. The chart below lists the yardage gained by East Carolina in their 8 conference games as well as their conference opponent. Their opponents’ conference ranking in yards allowed is in parentheses. The foes who were average to above-average are on the left, and the below average foes are on the right. That’s pretty telling. The Pirates were unable to move the ball against the league’s better teams, but absolutely shredded their weaker opponents. So how were the Pirates able to score the 4th most points in conference play with such poor offensive showings? Turnovers. In 8 conference games, the Pirates posted a turnover margin of +11 (easily tops in the league). Overall they were even better at +17 (4th in the nation). They lost only 14 turnovers all season (4th in the nation). That’s a number that is likely to trend upward in 2008. So if it’s reasonable to expect the offense to turn the ball over more in 2008, can they improve enough to make up for that? The answer is likely ‘No’. The Pirates best player, running back Chris Johnson, has exhausted his eligibility after a fantastic senior season. Johnson rushed for 1423 yards while averaging 6.03 yards per rush and scoring 17 touchdowns. Despite the return of 4 starters along the offensive line, the running game should take a step back with the absence of a player the caliber of Johnson. And the passing game? Quarterbacks Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass split time almost evenly last season and helped the team post a passer rating of 125.68 (62nd in the nation). Those 2 gentlemen should remain serviceable passers, but won’t be making any extreme jumps in performance. The offense should be better in 2008, in that they gain more yards, but with the turnovers bound to even themselves out, the scoring output should decrease.

Defensively, the Pirates were pretty good in 2007, finishing 4th in yards allowed in conference play. However, there was a big drop off from the top-3 defenses (Central Florida, Southern Miss, and Houston). The Pirates allowed about 63 more yards per game in conference play than Houston. That’s more than the difference between East Carolina and the 9th best defense (SMU). The Pirates do bring back 9 starters in 2008, with the only losses coming at linebacker (Fred Wilson) and corner (Travis Williams). Wilson and Williams will be missed, but on the whole, the defense should be even better in 2008.

Prediction: The non-conference schedule is nightmarish in 2008. The Pirates play Virginia Tech in Charlotte, host West Virginia, and travel to NC State and Virginia. Winning one of those games will be a chore. In league play, the Pirates have to travel to Southern Miss and Central Florida within the division. The do have the good fortune of only facing one of the superpowers from the West (Houston), but also face a tough sandwich game at Tulane (between the West Virginia and NC State games). The Pirates should also see a downturn in their good fortune—previously mentioned turnover margin and 4-1 record in one-score games in 2007. It’s hard to envision this team ending with a winning record.


Memphis
In 2007, the Memphis Tigers could rightly be dubbed the ‘Cardiac Cats’. 7 of the Tigers 13 games were decided by 4 points or less. The Tigers won 5 of those games, a major reason they went bowling despite being outscored by 39 points on the year. Can the Tigers qualify for their 5th bowl game in 6 seasons or are will they be relegated to the bottom of the division?

The Memphis offense was the team’s strength in 2007. Overall, they gained 446 yards per game (23rd in the nation) and in league play they finished 4th in yards gained. Unfortunately, the Tigers’ 2 biggest offensive contributors are no longer with the team. Quarterback Martin Hankins posted a passer rating of 137.84 (29th in the nation) and running back Joseph Doss gained over 800 yards on the ground. How capable their replacements are will go a long way in determining if Memphis plays in the postseason. The projected starter at quarterback is Washington State transfer Arkelon Hall. Hall played junior college ball last season, but he has yet to throw a pass against a Division IA opponent. The good news for Hall is that the Tigers return their entire receiving arsenal. The top-7 receivers from last year’s team all return. The projected starter at running back is TJ Pitts. Pitts was second on the team with 480 yards on the ground last season. With 3 starters retuning on the offensive line, Pitts could approach and even surpass the numbers Doss posted last season. The overall offense should decline with the loss of Hankins, but the Tigers should remain at least average by Conference USA standards.

The Tigers defense had its share of problems in 2007. The team allowed 442 yards per game (110th in the nation), and were only 8th in yards allowed in conference play. That’s not to say the Tigers didn’t have some good games. They held Southern Miss to 306 yards and Ole Miss to 275 yards. Of course, they made up for that by allowing 641 yards to East Carolina and 601 yards to Central Florida. The defense was bad against both the pass (allowed a passer rating of 139.63—96th in the nation) and the run (allowed 5.09 yards per rush—112th in the nation). With 8 starters back, the defense should show some moderate improvement. With 5 starters back among the front 7, the defense should improve upon the paltry 15 sacks they accumulated in 2007 (107th in the nation).

Prediction: The non-conference slate has several opportunities for wins. The Tigers host both Nicholls State and Arkansas State. However, the Tigers did lose to Arkansas State last season so a win should not be assumed. The remaining 2 non-conference games are road trips to what should be improved BCS squads—Ole Miss and Louisville. In league play, the Tigers avoid both Houston and Tulsa from the West, but a road game against an improved SMU team is on the schedule. The Tigers not only had a superb record in one score games last year (5-2), they also posted a splendid turnover margin of +10 (15th in the nation). Both those areas are likely to trend downward in 2008, and the Tigers’ record will follow suit.


UAB
The first season of the Neil Callaway era was a lesson in humility. The Blazers defeated only a single IA team (Tulane) and of their 10 losses, only 2 came by fewer than 10 points. Will progress be made in Year 2, or will the Blazers be playing the waiting game?

UAB was bad on both sides of the ball in 2007. They finished last in conference play in yards gained and second to last (11th) in yards allowed. The primary problem for the offense was an inability to run the ball (110 rush yards per game—104th in the nation) and complete a high number of passes (completed 49.1% of passes—115th in the nation). The good news is that quarterback Joseph Webb, who returns, put up much better numbers (116.70 passer rating versus 96.68 passer rating) than Sam Hunt who departs. Webb is an athlete who spent time at wide receiver, catching 30 passes for 459 yards (both 2nd on the team). The Blazers also return 2 starting receivers, 3 starting offensive linemen, and add a host of talented running backs. The Blazers off should improve enough to remove the label of ‘worst in the conference’.

The defense should see some improvement as well. 9 starters, including 5 of the top-6 tacklers return. The Blazers bring back their entire starting defensive line and 2/3rds of their starting linebackers, so they should improve upon their atrocious sack numbers from last season (17 sacks—102nd in the nation). With a little bit of luck, the Blazers could field a respectable defense in 2008.

Prediction: The Blazers non-conference slate features 3 very tough road games—Florida Atlantic, Tennessee, and South Carolina. The other game comes against Alabama State and is the Blazers best chance for a win outside of the league. In conference play, the Blazers have the misfortune of drawing both Tulsa and Houston from the West. The Blazers should improve in Callaway’s 2nd season, but it may not show in the final record as nearly every team in the division is improved as well.


West

Houston
In the past 2 seasons, the Cougars have gone 18-9 (13-3 in Conference USA play) and captured a league title (2006). All that success led Baylor to poach head coach Art Briles. Can the Cougars continue their dominance over Conference USA foes under new head man Kevin Sumlin?

Under Briles, it seemed the Cougars developed a reputation for implementing a sort of run-and-shoot attack. A perfunctory glance at the statistics proves that was not the case. The Cougars achieved an awesome balance under Briles, always running more than they passed, but doing both very efficiently. And this is where it starts to get interesting. Kevin Sumlin was the co-offensive coordinator at Oklahoma the past 2 seasons, but his offensive coordinator at Houston will be Dana Holgorsen. Holgorsen was the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech the past 3 years. This may finally be the year reality catches up with perception in Houston. And it couldn’t happen at a better time. A more passing-centric offensive approach will likely be needed in 2008 since the Cougars will be without the services of their star running back Anthony Aldridge. Aldridge began his college career as a wide receiver, but was given a shot to play running back in 2006. He did not disappoint. Aldridge nearly gained 1000 yards on just 95 carries, averaging a mind-boggling 10.09 yards per rush. He was made the feature back in 2007, and gained 1597 yards while averaging a still robust 6.17 yards per rush. Aldridge was a dynamic player who will certainly be missed. Elsewhere on offense, the Cougars also lose their number one receiver, Donnie Avery. Avery caught 91 balls for 1456 yards last season. Despite the loss of those 2 playmakers, the Houston offense should remain quite good. The quarterback duo of Case Keenum and Blake Joseph helped the Cougars compile a passer rating of 147.32 last season (11th in the nation). Both players return in 2008 with Keenum slated to be the starter. Keenum is more of a running threat than Joseph (3rd on the team with 412 rushing yards last season), and is also a year younger. The Houston offense also returns 3 starting offensive linemen and features 4 seniors, so they should improve upon the 32 sacks they allowed last season (97th in the nation). The offense may be slightly worse, but should remain one of the best in the conference.

Defensively, the Cougars allowed the 3rd fewest yards in conference play last season. Only Central Florida and Southern Miss were better against Conference USA foes. The Cougars return 7 starters in 2008, led by defensive end Phillip Hunt who had 10.5 sacks last season and 18 tackles for loss (16th in the nation). The Cougars do have some holes at linebacker where they lose 3 starters including last season’s leading tackler, Rocky Schwartz. The Cougar defense should also be a little worse in 2008, but not appreciably so.

Prediction: Besides the road game at Oklahoma State, the remainder of the non-conference slate is imminently winnable. Southern (IAA) and Air Force come to Houston, while the Cougars must travel to Fort Collins to take on Colorado State. 3-1 is very doable, and 2-2 appears to be the worst case scenario before league play. In conference play, the Cougars received a monumental gift from the scheduling gods in the form of a home game against UAB for one of the intra-division games. The Cougars also avoid Southern Miss and Central Florida from the East. They also host their biggest threat from the West, Tulsa. Another appearance in the Conference USA Championship Game appears to be in the cards for Houston.


Tulsa
Last season the Golden Hurricanes won 10 games and faced Central Florida in the Conference USA Championship Game. Though they fell to the Knights, they rebounded to wallop Bowling Green 63-7 in the GMAC Bowl, the largest margin of victory ever in a bowl game. Can the Hurricanes return to the title game for the 3rd time in 4 seasons?

Last season, under the tutelage of Gus Malzahn, the Golden Hurricanes put up points and yardage by the bushel. The former Arkansas offensive coordinator brought his fast-paced spread attack further west to Oklahoma and the results were fantastic. Tulsa averaged 544 yards (1st in the nation) and 41.1 points (6th in the nation) per game. It goes without saying, that they had the strongest offense in Conference USA. Tulsa returns 9 starters from that elite unit, but they do lose their point-man, quarterback Paul Smith. Smith posted an efficiency rating of 159.84 (4th in the nation) and threw 47 touchdowns (2nd in the nation). The loss of Smith will certainly sting as his heir apparent, David Johnson, has thrown only 63 passes in his 3 year career. Besides Smith, the only other loss is a solitary offensive tackle. Perhaps the most unique statistical player from last year’s team is senior wide receiver Brennan Marion. Marion averaged an absurd 31.90 yards per reception last season, topping 1200 yards on only 39 catches. The Tulsa offense should once again be one of the best in the conference, but they may slip a notch or two with the departure of Smith.

The defensive rankings for Tulsa are a little skewed by the fact that they played in Conference USA. The Golden Hurricanes allowed 452 yards per game overall (108th in the nation), but in conference games they were only slightly below average (7th in yards allowed). Still, the defense was by no means ‘good’ in 2007, and doesn’t seem likely to improve considerably in 2008. The top-4 tacklers from last year’s team, including leading sack man Alain Karatepeyah (9 sacks in 2007) are gone. Tulsa does return perhaps their best defender, bandit defensive back Roy Roberts who led the team with 12 pass break-ups last season.

Prediction: The Golden Hurricanes have the potential for a great start in 2008. They open with league whipping-boy UAB, before traveling to North Texas, and hosting 3 straight against New Mexico, Central Arkansas, and Rice. They follow that up with a road game against SMU before coming home to host UTEP and Central Florida. It’s not likely, but indeed possible for Tulsa to stand 8-0 before heading to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas. Unfortunately, Tulsa must face their biggest divisional threat, Houston, on the road. They have a real shot at winning 10 games again, but probably won’t take the division.


UTEP
After beginning the 2006 season 4-2, the Miners have won only 5 of their last 18 games. Could Mike Price be on the hot seat in his 5th season in the West Texas town of El Paso?

Last season, the Miners had to replace their all-time passing leader in quarterback Jordan Palmer. They did so with a player who may one day take that mantra from Mr. Palmer. True freshman Trevor Vittatoe posted a passer rating of 135.87 (32nd in the nation) and led all freshman quarterbacks in passing yards per game (258). As a unit, the Miners were average offensively in Conference USA (6th in yards gained). They do lose a number of pieces in 2008, including 1000-yard rusher Marcus Thomas, and a pair of receivers with over 40 catches—Joe West and Lorne Sam. Fortunately for Vittatoe his best receiver, Jeff Moturi (891 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2007) is back as are 3 starting offensive lineman. If Vittatoe doesn’t undergo a Colt McCoy-esque sophomore slump, the UTEP offense should be just as strong in 2008.

The defense is what really let the Miners down last season. Opponents shredded the Miners for 505 yards per game (117th in the nation) and among Conference USA teams, no one was worse in league play. The Miners primary deficiency was an inability to get to the quarterback. UTEP posted only 16 sacks in 2007 (105th in the nation), and no individual player netted more than 2. The Miners bring back 7 starters in 2008, but do lose their leading tackler, safety/linebacker hybrid Braxton Amy. It would be quite an accomplishment if the Miners got worse on defense. The laws of extreme performances say they are do for at least a subtle rebound on that side of the ball.

Prediction: Outside the league, UTEP faces Buffalo, Texas, New Mexico State, and Louisiana-Lafayette. The Miners have a real shot at winning 3 of those 4. In conference play, the Miners have 3 very winnable home games—Tulane, Rice, and SMU. The other comes against Central Florida. If the Miners can steal a roadie against Southern Miss, Tulsa, Houston, or East Carolina, they could top 8 wins.


SMU
In the 5-season span from 1980-1984 the Mustangs went to 4 bowl games. They’ve been to none since their Aloha Bowl win over Notre Dame in 1984. Can June Jones, having already resurrected one downtrodden program, raise the Pony Express back up?

Last season, despite the presence of quarterback Justin Willis, the Mustangs were slightly below average offensively. In conference play, they were 7th in yards gained. Willis struggled somewhat in his second season in Dallas, throwing 18 interceptions and posting a passer rating of 129.41 (55th in the nation) after throwing only 6 with a passer rating of 158.43 (10th in the nation) as a freshman. His completion percentage also dropped significantly, from 67.4% to 58.5%. Still, Willis was the offenses’ best player, as he added 713 yards on the ground. With a quarterback guru like June Jones, chances are good Willis will improve upon his 2007 numbers. While he may never reach the heights he set in 2006, his 2007 numbers seem to be the ground floor for his performance. Elsewhere on offense, the Mustangs return last year’s leading receiver (Emmanuel Sanders), 3 starting offensive linemen, and the running back duo of DeMyron Martin and James Mapps (combined for nearly 1000 yards last season). As long as Willis is with the team come opening night (he was suspended for the spring), the Mustangs will be one of the top offensive units in the league.

Defensively, the Mustangs were bad last season, but far from the worst in the conference. Rice, UAB, and UTEP all allowed more yards to conference foes last season. The Mustangs bring back 7 starters in 2008, including 4 of the top-5 tacklers. Like UTEP, the Mustangs also struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks, posting only 20 sacks all season (89th in the nation). Defensive end Cory Muse led the team with 5 sacks. He has departed, but the returning players, including 3 of 4 starters in the secondary, should help the defense improve their play.

Prediction: Texas State, Texas Tech, and TCU dot the non-conference slate, as well as a date with Navy in Annapolis. The Mustangs desperately need to win the Navy game to set themselves up with a 2-2 record outside the league. In conference play, the Mustangs have the good fortune of hosting both divisional powers Houston and Tulsa, so a breakthrough there is possible. The Mustangs also have 2 very winnable road games—Rice and Tulane, so the potential for a bowl bid is there. The Mustangs should also see their luck improve as they were a poor 0-5 in one-score games in 2007, and also posted a turnover margin of -9. Bowl eligibility is in their future, but a bowl bid is not.


Tulane
Since finishing the 1998 season undefeated and pawning Tommy Bowden off on Clemson, the Green Wave have but one bowl appearance (2002 Hawaii Bowl). Can Bob Toledo lead the Green Wave back to postseason play for the only the second time in a decade?

Last season the Tulane offense was built around one man—running back Matt Forte. Forte topped 2000 yards on the ground and finished second to Kevin Smith in rushing yards per game. He also averaged 5.89 yards per rush and scored 23 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the quarterback play was shaky at best (team passer rating of 108.18—105th in the nation), so the team was actually below average offensively. They finished 8th in yards gained in league play. Now Forte is gone and anyone of a trio of milquetoast quarterbacks (Kevin Moore, Anthony Scelfo, or Scott Elliott) will likely be forced to bare more of the offensive load. Forte’s replacement is Andre Anderson, a junior with only 129 career rushing yards. However, 4 starting offensive linemen return which should mean a sizeable number of holes for Anderson to run through. The Green Wave also return their two leading receivers from last season (Jeremy Williams and Brian King). Despite the loss of Forte, the offense should not be appreciably worse and could be better if one of the 3 quarterbacks emerges and improves.

Defensively, Tulane was surprisingly vigorous, at least by Conference USA standards. The Green Wave finished 5th in yards allowed in league play. They even held eventual MNC LSU to only 391 yards of offense. 7 starters return for the 2008 season, with linebacker Evan Lee chief among them. Lee led the team in tackles last season and looks to do the same this year. Talent-wise, the Tulane defense probably played a bit over their heads last season and should decline despite returning a sizable number of starters.

Prediction: The non-conference slate does Tulane no favors with road trips to SEC foes Alabama and LSU. The Green Wave also have easier contests against Louisiana-Monroe and Army. If they intend to go bowling, they must win both those games. Easier said than done. In league play, Tulane has the misfortune of traveling to both Houston and Tulsa, giving them 2 almost assured conference losses. Normally a team with the statistics of Tulane (SDPI ranks them 6th in yardage for 2007) could make some noise. However, with the exception of Rice, everyone in the division appears to be improved. Looks like a second consecutive 3 win conference season for Tulane.


Rice
In 2006, Rice won 7 games and qualified for their first bowl game since 1961. The success, as it inevitably does at a school like Rice, cost the teams its coach who saw the writing (difficulty of consistently winning) on the wall and hightailed it to Tulsa. Predictably, the Owls struggled in 2007, finishing only 3-9. However, all 3 of their wins actually came in conference play, which was good enough for a tie for 3rd in Conference USA West. Can the Owls, with significant returnees, especially on offense, return to a bowl game in 2008?

Last season the Rice offense was moderately proficient. In Conference USA play, they were 5th in yards gained. The strength of the team was the passing attack which averaged 293 yards per game (15th in the nation). Quarterback Chase Clement enjoyed another solid season, posting a passer rating of 127.44 (58th in the nation). Clement returns for his senior season and should enjoy another fine campaign. In fact after 2 games he could very well pass Tommy Kramer as the school’s all-time leading passer. Joining Clement on offense are 8 other starters. The Owls lose the left side of their line (guard and tackle), but everyone else is back. The skill position playmakers are highlighted by wide receiver Jarett Dillard. As a sophomore in 2006, Dillard led the NCAA in touchdown catches with 21. He slipped a little last season, catching only 14 touchdowns (3rd in the nation), but topped 1000 yards for the second straight season. Dillard should post another All-American caliber season, and if the running game can improve a little (111 yards per game in 2007—103rd in the nation), the offense could be one of the league’s best.

The Rice defense was another story. They finished 118th in the nation in total defense, permitting opponents to roll over them to the tune of 511 yards per game. In conference play they finished a little better, allowing the 10th most yards in the league. UAB and UTEP were worse, so they can take solace in that fact. The defense should be a little better in 2008 with 7 starters, including the top-5 tacklers, back. Still, Rice will not be winning games with defense. The defense will be improved, but should still remain one of the worst units in the league.

Prediction: Rice faces road games against BCS foes Vanderbilt and Texas in what should be 2 sure losses. Their other non-conference games come at home against North Texas and Army. Both those games are winnable, and if Rice harbors any bowl hopes, they must win both of those. In conference play, Rice has winnable home games against SMU and Marshall. However, every other team in the division appears to be improved, so despite the fact that this may the best Rice team in sometime, a finish in the cellar is likely.

Predicted Records:

2008 Mountain West Preview

TCU
Though they finished a somewhat disappointing 4-4 in the Mountain West last season (alone in 5th place), the Horned Frogs were actually one of the league’s best teams. In conference play, the Horned Frogs had the second-best yardage differential (behind league heavyweight BYU). In addition, all 4 of their losses in conference play came by 7 points or less (18 total points) and their turnover margin in Mountain West games was tied for 7th (among 9 teams) at -5. If TCU plays as well as they did last season and has a little better fortune, they have a great shot at winning the league title.

Despite losing a senior starter at quarterback from the 2006 team (Jeff Ballard) and starting a redshirt freshman (Andy Dalton), the TCU offense performed very well in 2007. Nationally, the Horned Frogs ranked a rather pedestrian 64th in total offense (387 yards per game), but in conference play, only BYU gained more yards. Dalton returns for his sophomore campaign and should improve upon his decent freshman numbers (passer rating of 118.48 ranked 83rd in the nation). Dalton also contributed 232 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground and with more experience could see those numbers improve as well. Joining Dalton in the backfield are running backs Joseph Turner and Aaron Brown. The duo combined for nearly 1100 yards last season and with 4 starters returning along the offensive line, should see improvement as well. The lone significant loss on offense is leading-receiver Ervin Dickerson. However, Dickerson paced the team with a mere 40 catches and 514 yards in 2007. The Horned Frogs spread the ball around quite a bit in 2007 (4 receivers caught at least 20 passes and gained over 300 yards) so that should not be a real issue as the other 3 men who achieved those aforementioned feats all return. The offense as a whole should continue to progress and remain one of the best in the Mountain West.

The defense was it’s usual stingy self in 2007, limiting opponents to only 324 yards per game (15th in the nation). In Mountain West play, they were 3rd in yards allowed, behind Utah and BYU. The Horned Frogs do have some holes to fill on defense in 2008, as 3 of the top-4 tacklers are no longer with the team. Of course, that’s not to say the Horned Frogs will not be experienced in 2008, as 7 of their projected starters are seniors. The Horned Frogs may regress some on defense, but it will be marginal at most. They should remain in the upper-tier of the Mountain West.

Prediction: If the Horned Frogs can get by the opener at New Mexico, they stand a great shot at being 4-0 by the time they travel to Norman to take on the Sooners (Stephen F. Austin, Stanford, and SMU follow the New Mexico game). I don’t think they can knock off the Sooners, but for the sake of argument, an 11-1 TCU team with a good showing in Norman on its resume could conceivably get into the BCS. Of course calling for an undefeated Mountain West season is likely folly this season with so many strong teams. With the game against conference overlord BYU in Fort Worth, a bevy of returning starters at the ready, and some better luck (in close games and the turnover department), the Horned Frogs are the conference favorite.


Utah
Since taking over for Urban Meyer following the 2004 season, Kyle Whittingham has captained the Utes to 3 straight bowl wins and seen the team’s final record improve each season (7-5, 8-5, 9-4). Is this the year the Utes put everything together and make another run at the conference title and a possible BCS bid?

Last season the Utah offense returned one of the conferences best players in quarterback Brian Johnson. Johnson missed all of the 2006 season after a superb starting debut in 2005 (151.02 passer rating—11th in the nation). Johnson struggled somewhat (of course) after missing an entire season, posting a passer rating of 129.58 (53rd in the nation). Johnson also continued to struggle with injuries missing 2 full games and parts of 2 others. In those 4 games (the 1st 4), the Utes went 1-3 and netted only 7 offensive touchdowns (5 in the 44-6 drubbing of UCLA fueled mostly by 5 Bruin turnovers). Despite underperforming based on the standard he set in 2005, Johnson was vitally important to the team’s success as the table below illustrates. If Johnson can remain healthy in 2008, the Utes can do great things. Joining Johnson on the offensive side of the ball are 4 returning starters on the offensive line, running back Darrell Mack (1204 yards on the ground in 2007), and receivers Brent Casteel (2nd on the team in receiving in 2006, but tore ACL in game 2 last year) and Bradon Godfrey (2nd in receiving in 2007). The Utes do lose receiver Derrek Richards (led team past 2 seasons in receiving), but the passing game should remain potent. Johnson may not achieve his 2005 numbers, but he should improve upon those from 2007. As long as he does not miss significant time, the Utes should be one of the best offenses in the Mountain West.

Last season, the Utah defense carried the team while the offense was struggling with a hobbled quarterback. The Utes allowed the fewest yards in conference play and nationally were the top-ranked defense in terms of opponents’ passer rating (96.15). Opposing teams completed only slightly more than half their passes (50.4%) against the miserly Ute defense. The defense should continue to be an asset to the team, but will not approach last year’s potency. 5 starters are gone, and the team loses 3 of the top-6 tacklers. In addition, while the defense was good, part of its otherworldliness was built upon turnovers. The Utes forced 33 turnovers in 2007, 16 of them coming via a fumble recovery. The Utes recovered 2/3rds of their opponents’ fumbles in 2007, a number not likely to be repeated.

Prediction: The Utes open in the Big House at Michigan, in a game the Wolverines will certainly not look past. Even if they fall to the men in maize and blue, the Utes can take solace in the fact that their other non-conference games are very winnable. The Utes travel to WAC bottom-dweller Utah State before hosting Weber State (IAA) and the Pac-10’s Oregon State. The first 2 are gimmes and while the date with the Beavers will be tough, it does come in Salt Lake City. In league play, the Utes have a supreme advantage in that they host both TCU and BYU. However, the while the Utes should be better and even post their best record in the Whittingham-era, the football gods will likely not be as kind in the turnover department, so expect the Utes to finish in second despite handling both the Horned Frogs and the Cougars.


BYU
They’re back! Believe it or not, prior to 2006, BYU had faded into mid-major irrelevance. In the 6-season span from 2000-2005 (the end of the Lavell Edwards era, the entirety of the Gary Crowton era, and the inaugural season of the Bronco Mendenhall era), the Cougars were 38-35. Taking it a step further, after beginning the 2001 season 12-0, the Cougars were 20-29 over the next 4+ seasons. To put that in perspective, the Cougars have won 22 games over the past 2 seasons. Significant progress has been made in each season under Mendenhall, culminating in consecutive undefeated romps through the Mountain West. Can the Cougars make it 24-straight Mountain West wins, and in the process punch their ticket to a prestigious bowl game?

Statistically, BYU was head and shoulders above every other team in the Mountain West last season. In conference play, they gained the most yards and only Utah allowed fewer (a yard and a half fewer per game). The offensive showing was very impressive considering the Cougars lost an NFL-draft choice (John Beck) at quarterback following the 2006 season. Arizona State transfer Max Hall performed admirably in his stead, compiling a passer rating of 137.71 (30th in the nation) and leading all Mountain West quarterbacks with 26 touchdown passes. Hall returns for his junior campaign along with 8 other starters. Included in that group is super sophomore running back Harvey Unga, who was second in the Mountain West in rushing (1227 yards) as a freshman. Unga also proved very capable in the passing game, catching 44 passes for 655 yards (3rd on the team in both categories). With 4 starters back along the offensive line, Unga should once again post very good numbers. Besides center, Sete Aulai, the only other starter not returning is receiver Matt Allen. While Allen did catch 33 balls last season, he should easily be replaced by senior Bryce Mahuika. If BYU does not have the league’s best offense once again, it will be because of injuries, serious egression by Hall, or an otherworldly season from Utah’s Brian Johnson.

Unfortunately, the Cougars will need all the offense they can muster because the defense has to replace a host of talented players. 6 of the top-8 tacklers are gone from a defense that permitted only one foe (Tulsa with 595) to top 400 yards. The entire secondary and 3 quarters of the starting linebackers are gone. That’s not to say Mendenhall does not have capable replacements, but expecting them to match last season’s performance is unlikely. On the positive side, the Cougars do bring back defensive end Jan Jorgensen and his 13.5 sacks (5th in the nation). Jorgensen and his mates on the defensive line will need to up the pressure to protect the green secondary.

Prediction: The non-conference schedule is built for a BCS bid. The Cougars open with Northern Iowa and then face 2 mid-level BCS foes, one on the road (Washington) and one in Provo (UCLA). The final non-conference test (ahem) is against perennial softee Utah State. The Cougars certainly have a pretty good shot at taking all 4 of those games. However, in the conference, they must travel to their 2 biggest threats for the conference crown—Utah and TCU. The Mountain West streak should end on October 16th in Fort Worth at 16-straight wins.


New Mexico
Los Lobos won the eponymous New Mexico Bowl in 2007; their first bowl win since 1961. Of course, the Lobos have not been terrible in the interim. Quite the contrary, as they have participated in bowl games in 5 of the past 6 seasons, and have not finished below .500 in league play since 2000. Last season they finished tied for 3rd with Utah. They lost to what can best be considered the Big 3—BYU, Utah, and TCU, but managed to beat the other 5 teams in the league. As the chart below shows, the Lobos were certainly a notch below those 3 powerhouses. Can the Lobos build upon last year’s bowl win and contend for the league title?

If the Lobos are to contend for the Mountain West crown, they must get better production from the offense. That season, the Lobos gained 372 yards per game (a respectable 76th in the nation). However, in league play, only Wyoming gained fewer yards. All the Lobos offensive explosions occurred outside the league. In their 5 non-conference games, they averaged 469 yards per game. In their 8 conference games, they averaged 311 yards per game. This was due mostly to the fact that they played defensively challenged UTEP (117th in total defense), New Mexico State (94th), and Sacramento State (IAA) in 3 of those games. As you can see, both quarterback Donovan Porterie and running back Rodney Ferguson performed much better outside the league. Against Mountain West foes, Porterie barely completed half is throws, and against everyone else, he was highly efficient. Outside the league, Ferguson was an upper-tier back. In league play, he was Eddie George (pro version). Should we expect substantial improvement this season? Not really. While I wouldn’t expect the splits to be so extreme this season, the Lobos must break in 4 new starters on the offensive line and replace their top-two receivers from 2007—Marcus Smith (91 catches and 1125 yards) and Travis Brown (72 catches and 981 yards). The Lobo offense should certainly refrain from being among the league’s worst, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for substantial improvement.

The defense propped up the underperforming offense last season. Their national ranking of 13th in total defense is a tad overstated (they were only 4th in yards allowed in conference play behind the Big 3—Utah, BYU, and TCU), but the Lobos did hold 6 of their 13 opponents to under 300 yards (UTEP, Sacramento State, Wyoming, San Diego State, UNLV, and Nevada). 5 starters are back for 2008, but 3 of the top-5 tacklers are gone. The major attrition is at linebacker where are 3 out of 4 starters from last season are gone. The Lobo defense should remain solid, but should not be as good as last season.

Prediction: The non-conference slate is, in a word, brutal. Texas A&M and Arizona come to Albuquerque, and while the Lobos did beat Arizona in Tucson last season, winning one or both of those games will be a tall order. The Lobos then travel to Conference USA power Tulsa before closing non-conference play at rival New Mexico State. With the Lobos hosting TCU in the season opener before the non-conference schedule, the chance for an 0-4 start is certainly realistic. Still, the Lobos always seem to hang around the mid-section of the league. However, 4-4 in the league may not be enough for a bowl bid if the Lobos can’t beat Texas A&M, Arizona, or Tulsa. It’s either another New Mexico Bowl or home for the holidays.


UNLV
A swift glance at the Runnin’ Rebels record under head coach Mike Sanford, and you’d figure he’s on his way out after the 2008 season. Sanford’s charges have gone 6-29 in his 3 seasons (3-21 in Mountain West play), winning only 2 games each season. However, if you look closer you can see signs of progress. In 2005, the Rebels were outgained by about 81 yards per game over the course of the season. That number dropped to 70 per game in 2006, despite the win total holding steady. In 2007, the Rebels were only outgained by 33 yards per game, numbers hardly befitting a team that won only 2 games. Barring a Clint Black-esqe good run of bad luck, the Rebels should be one of the most improved teams in the nation and could attain bowl eligibility.

Last season, the Rebels were a shade below average on both offense and defense. In Mountain West play, they were 7th in yards gained. However, many of the league’s offenses were clustered around the middle. Consequently, they averaged only about 6 fewer yards per game than the 4th best offense (Utah). The offense should see momentous improvement in 2008 as 9 starters return. Whoever, amongst the average at best passers, wins the starting quarterback job (Omar Clayton or Travis Dixon) will have a very good running back to hand off to (Frank Summers—928 yards last season) and 4 returning starters on the offensive line to provide protection. The Rebels also return their top-3 receivers from last season. If the offense doesn’t improve, getting rid of Sanford will be the only solution.

Defensively, the Rebels were also a shade below average. In conference play, they were 6th in yards allowed. The defenses in the Mountain West were not concentrated as much around the middle. There was a steep drop off from the top 4 (Utah, BYU, TCU, and New Mexico). The Rebels defense should not see the kinds of improvement the offense is right to expect. The Rebels lose 6 starters and 3 of their top-5 tacklers from last season. The biggest loss is linebacker Beau Bell, who totaled 126 tackles in 2007 and was taken in the 4th round of the NFL Draft. The defense may decline a little, but the Rebels should remain a slightly below average defense in the Mountain West.

Prediction: The non-conference slate includes Utah State and Nevada from the WAC (the Rebels should be 1-1 at worst in those games), Arizona State, and Iowa State. While the Cyclones are a Big 12 foe, the Rebels nearly won in Ames in 2006 (falling 16-10), and this year the game is in Vegas. One win outside the league is a given, 2 is a distinct possibility, and 3 is not as crazy as one may think. In the league, the Rebels have 3 very winnable home games against mid-level conference foes (Air Force, New Mexico, and Wyoming) and 2 winnable road games against the proletariat of the conference (Colorado State and San Diego State). Besides the dissonance in the Rebels yardage differential and their actual record, UNLV also posted a poor record in close games in 2007. They went 1-4 in one-score games, including losing to Wisconsin of the Big 10 by only 7 points. As their luck improves, the Rebels should win more conference games in 2008 than they have in Sanford’s first 3 seasons (3). If not, it’s back to the junkyard for Sanford.


Wyoming
On the morning of October 13th, things looked great for the Cowboys. They stood 4-1 (1-0 in the conference) with wins over Virginia and TCU. Their only loss came to Boise State on the notoriously tough Smurf Turf. The Cowboys were hosting a 3-2 New Mexico team and looking to make a run for a possible conference championship. The Cowboys lost that game 20-3 and won only once more on the season, finishing up 5-7. What happened? The offense went from below average to downright deplorable. Was it quarterback Karsten Sween? No. He was not appreciably worse in the skid. It was the running attack. Running backs Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon combined for over 1500 yards on the season, but as you can see, they struggled considerably in the latter part of the season. And it can’t all be explained by the opposition either. In he first 5 games, the Cowboys played Virginia (13th in rush defense), Boise State (35th), TCU (11th) and the last 7 included contests against UNLV (87th), San Diego State (118th) and Colorado State (107th). Can the Cowboys fix the offense and save head coach Joe Glenn’s job?

The running game should avoid the decline it went through last season. Along with Moore and Seldon in the backfield, the offensive line returns all 5 starters. Game-to-game, the running attack could suffer depending on the opponent, but the prolonged slump of last season should be a thing of the past. As for the quarterback, Karsten Sween, for lack of a better expression, is what he is. His passer rating of 118.51 in 2006 ranked 73rd in the nation. His passer rating of 108.90 from last season was not in the top-100. So he’s somewhere between below average and terrible. He may improve on last season’s number, but don’t expect a miracle.

Defensively, the Cowboys ranked a very solid 22nd in total defense (332 yards per game). However, in Mountain West play, the Cowboys were only 5th in yards allowed. The Cowboys bring back 6 starters in 2008, but do lose 3 of their top-5 tacklers. The strength of the team should be the defensive line where defensive end John Fletcher and his 10.5 sacks returns. The defense should also have some better luck at forcing turnovers. Despite their solid yardage statistics, they forced only 19 turnovers all season (94th in the nation). That contributed to their turnover margin of -12 (112th in the nation).

Prediction: The non-conference slate features 3 home games, but only one of them is a sure victory (North Dakota State). The other two feature MAC teams (Ohio and Bowling Green). Wyoming should take at least one of those games, and could possibly sweep them both. The final non-conference game is at Tennessee, so there figures to be at least one loss on the ledger outside the league. The Cowboys host 2 of the league’s presumptive weaker teams (San Diego State and Colorado State) and another that is sure to decline (Air Force). The final home game comes against one of the league favorites (Utah), but since the game is in Laramie, a win is possible. Unfortunately, the road schedule is much more daunting. The Cowboys will likely not be favored against any of their road opponents (BYU, New Mexico, TCU, and UNLV). 4-4 seems to be the ceiling for the Cowboys. Depending on how they do outside the league, that may be enough to save Glenn’s job.


Air Force
The only problem with Troy Calhoun’s sensational maiden voyage is that he may have set expectations too high. The Falcons won 9 games for the first time since 2000, and finished with a winning record in league play for the first time since 2002. The Falcons even went 2-1 against the league’s Big 3. They upended Utah by 8, toppled TCU by 3 in OT, and were walloped by BYU 31-6. However, despite the fact that they won 2 of 3, that does not mean they outplayed their opponents. As you can see, Air Force was handled pretty well on a down-to-down basis by the Big 3. In the other 5 conference games, Air Force had a slight yardage edge, but not of the caliber that you would associate with a 4-1 record. Air Force was the beneficiary of solid play in one-score games (3-2 record) and a very good turnover margin (+10). Both those facets of the team should decline in 2008, and with a multitude of starters no longer eligible, the Falcons will be hard-pressed to return to postseason play.

The Air Force offense was flying high in 2007. The Falcons ranked 39th in the nation in total offense, averaging 419 yards per game. In conference play, they were 3rd in yards gained, behind BYU and TCU. Unfortunately, most of those yards were gained on the ground and they are almost all gone. The Falcons totaled 3894 rushing yards last season. 3668 of those yards have departed. The big losses are wing back Chad Hall (1478 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in 2007), running back Jim Ollis (682 rushing yards) and quarterback Shaun Carney (637 rushing yards and another 1491 through the air). Carney also posted a fine passer rating of 134.30 (38th in the nation). Hall also led the team with 50 catches for 524 yards. To recap, the Falcons lose their quarterback, top-6 rushers, and top-2 pass catchers. That’s not a recipe to remain an elite offense.

The Falcons are not quite as strapped on defense, but they do lose some significant players. 4 of the top-5 and 5 of the top-7 tacklers from a defense that ranked only 7th in yards allowed in Mountain West play are gone. The defense may not suffer as much of a decline as the offense (they don’t have nearly as far to fall), but they should remain towards the bottom of the league in terms of defensive acumen.

Prediction: The Falcons open with Southern Utah, a game they desperately need in order to get their new starters game experience. In their other non-conference games, they travel to Houston, host Navy, and travel to Army. The Falcons should be underdogs against the Cougars and Midshipmen, but they have beaten Army 10 of the last 11 years. In conference play, the Falcons can do some damage at home against New Mexico and Colorado State and could steal a road game against San Diego State. However, 3 wins in the league seems to be the limit for this team. Calhoun and the Falcon faithful may be disappointed with his encore performance, but even Bear Bryant couldn’t match last year’s record with this team.


San Diego State
Former Heisman runner-up Chuck Long has had a rough go of it in his first 2 seasons on the job in San Diego. Long’s teams have gone 7-17 (6-10 in Mountain West play) and nothing about last season’s performance screams for an about-face in 2008.

Statistically, San Diego State was the worst team in the Mountain West last season. On the offensive side of the ball, they were 6th in conference play in yards gained. Quarterback Kevin O’Connell posted OK numbers (passer rating of 124.79 ranked 68th in the nation), but apparently had the ‘tools’ to be an NFL quarterback (3rd round draft choice). O’Connell also led the team in rushing (426 yards and 11 touchdowns), which does not bode well for the team in 2008. Brandon Bornes, the team’s top-running back, is gone as are the two leading receivers (Brett Swain and Chaz Schilens). Both aspects of the offense will have to be completely retooled. The Aztecs were not a good offense with O’Connell, and they should be even worse without him.

Defensively, the Aztecs were the most inept team in the Mountain West last season. They allowed the most yards in conference play by a significant margin. They allowed 62 more yards per game than the 8th best team, Colorado State. The difference between the 5th best defense (Wyoming) and Colorado State was only about 44 yards per game. The good news for the defense is that they will at least be more experienced in 2008. 8 starters return, including 5 of the top-6 tacklers. Most of those starters are in the linebacking corps and secondary (6 of 7). That’s a very good thing considering the defense racked up only 15 sacks last season (107th in the nation). The defense should no longer be the worst in the conference, but a middling performance is the best that can be expected.

Prediction: The Aztecs open the season against IAA Cal Poly in what should be a certain win. However, it behooves me to mention that the Aztecs lost at home to Cal Poly in 2006. The Aztecs then take road trips to Notre Dame and San Jose State before closing the non-conference season at home against Idaho. Assuming the Cal Poly game as a win and the Notre Dame game as a loss, the Aztecs desperately need to beat the Spartans and Vandals. However, a split is more likely. In league play, the Aztecs best chance for a win comes at home against Colorado State. All 3 of the Aztecs wins over Division IA teams last season were by 8 points or fewer; not the sign of a team on the rise. Chuck Long may survive to coach in 2009, but he will certainly be on the hot seat.


Colorado State
The Sonny Lubick era did not end with a bang, but with a whimper. In what turned out to be the future Hall of Famer’s final season, the Rams limped to a 3-9 record. However, Lubick concludes his 15-season run with a fine record of 108-74. He guided the Rams to 9 bowl games, 6 conference titles, and 3 final poll rankings. Can his replacement, Steve Fairchild, lead the Rams back to the top of the league?

Colorado State was victimized by some poor luck last season (2-4 in one-score games), but they were far removed from a good team. The offense was the team’s strong suit, finishing 5th in yards gained in conference play. The leader of the offense was quarterback Caleb Hanie, who actually led all Mountain West quarterbacks in passing efficiency (145.08 rating—19th in the nation). Was is the essential word in that sentence though as he was a senior and has exhausted his eligibility. Hanie is gone as well as the top-3 receivers from last season. However, all hope is not lost as 4 starting offensive linemen return to open holes for senior running back Gartrell Johnson III (957 yards and a robust 5.29 yards per attempt last season). In addition to Johnson, Kyle Bell, the team’s leading rusher in 2005 (1288 yards), who has battled injuries the past 2 seasons is also back. The passing attack will suffer, but the running game should improve.

The defense let the team down last season, only finishing better than San Diego State in conference play. The Rams return only 5 starters in 2008, and lose 3 quarters of their starting defensive line and secondary. The best returning player is linebacker Jeff Horinek. Horinek led the team with 94 tackles last season. The defense should not be appreciably better than last season, and with the gains elsewhere in the league, may end up being the worst in the Mountain West.

Prediction: The non-conference slate features one sure win (Sacramento State), a rivalry game (Colorado), and 2 likely losses (Houston and California). Best case scenario is a 2-2 record outside the league. In conference play, the Rams have the misfortune of playing 2 of the league’s top teams (TCU and BYU) at home. One win in the league is the likely result and 2 wins seems to be the absolute ceiling for this team.

Predicted Records:

2008 WAC Preview

Boise State
Seemingly for the first time in eons, the Broncos did not win the WAC in 2007. Their 17-game WAC winning streak, and strangle-hold on the conference, was broken in their regular-season finale on the Islands against Hawaii. Can the Broncos regain their crown and perhaps run the table en route to another appearance in a BCS bowl game?

Despite the departure of quarterback Jared Zabransky following the Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma, the Boise State offense did not miss a beat. In 2006, the offense averaged 421 yards per game (10th in the nation) and scored 39.7 points per game (2nd in the nation). In 2007, they averaged 468 yards per game (12th in the nation) and scored 42.4 points per game (4th in the nation). Quarterback Taylor Tharp acquitted himself quite well under center in his only season as a starter. His passer rating of 152.85 ranked 7th nationally. Like Zabransky before him, Tharp too has exhausted his eligibility. His likely replacement will be redshirt freshman Kellen Moore. While it may be a reach to assume greatness for Moore, the Broncos have a history of turning out quality quarterbacks every season. Bart Hendricks begat Ryan Dinwiddie who begat Jared Zabransky who begat Taylor Tharp. That’s a decade of good to stellar quarterback play. Moore has last season’s top-wideout Jeremy Childs (1045 yards through the air in 2007) and running back Ian Johnson (over 2700 yards and 41 touchdowns on the ground the past 2 seasons) to help him in his transition. The lone area for concern for the Boise State offense is continuity on the offensive line. The lone returning starter is guard Andrew Woodruff. The team will certainly miss departed left tackle Ryan Clady (1st round draft choice), and this may be the Broncos worst offensive line in a very long time. The offense should still be quite productive, but with a new quarterback and inexperienced line, it should not be as good as last season’s version.

Last season, the Broncos finished 25th in total defense, permitting only 338 yards per game. In WAC play, they were the top dog (or horse) in terms of defensive proficiency. The only WAC foes who were able to move the ball against them were Hawaii and Nevada (1213 yards in those 2 games, 1638 in the other 6 conference games. The latter came in a game on the Smurf Turf where the Broncos nearly lost for the first time ever to a conference opponent (69-67 win in 4 OTs). In perhaps their best performance of the season, they held New Mexico State (albeit without Chase Holbrook for the majority of the game) to 89 yards in a 58-0 pummeling. The Bronco defense returns 7 starters in 2008, including leading-tackler linebacker Kyle Gingg. The biggest loss for the Broncos will be in the secondary where safety Marty Tadman (second on the team in tackles and first in passes broken up) and corner Orlando Scandrick must be replaced. The Bronco defense may slip a little, but should remain one of the best in the WAC.

Prediction: Outside of the opener against Idaho State, the Broncos have a very fascinating non-conference schedule. They host Bowling Green (bowl team from last season), travel to Oregon, and also to Southern Miss. While the Oregon game gets top billing (and rightfully so), the Southern Miss game comes right between the WAC opener against Louisiana Tech, and the rematch with Hawaii. Still, the Broncos should go 3-1 at worst against their non-conference slate. I’m not buying them winning in Autzen though. To me, this year’s team seems a bit weaker than last year’s version which lost, lest you forget, on the road to Washington. In conference play, the Broncos should roll through their home schedule as usual and are blessed with a very winnable road slate. The most difficult test will come on November 22nd when they travel to Nevada. 2 losses will keep the Broncos out of a BCS bowl, but it may be good for them in the log run as it will likely ensure Chris Petersen stays in town for another season.


Nevada
Nevada’s 2007 season was bookended between a pair of embarrassing defeats. They opened the year with a 52-10 throttling by Nebraska and closed it with a 23-0 shutout at the hands of New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl. In between, they managed only a 6-5 record, but were statistically one of the best teams in the WAC. If their achievement aligns with their performance in 2008, the Wolfpack could find themselves as champions of the WAC.

The Wolfpack offense was one of the most proficient in the nation in 2007. They averaged 468 yards per game (11th in the nation) and scored 33.5 points per game (27th in the nation). In WAC play, only the incomparable offense at Hawaii gained more yards. The team’s biggest star was freshman quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Pressed into action in the team’s 5th game, against Fresno State, Kaepernick responded by throwing for 384 yards and 4 touchdowns. On the season, Kaepernick posted an efficiency rating of 150.77 (10th in the nation). He also rushed for nearly 600 yards (593) and scored 6 touchdowns on the ground. The most interesting part of Kaepernick’s season was that despite his extremely high rating, he only completed 53.8% of his passes (not even in the top-100). Despite the bevy of incompletions, Kaepernick threw only 3 interceptions in 247 pass attempts. You can be certain he will top that number in 2008, especially if he remains as erratic throwing the football. Should he falter, the ‘Pistol’ offense will still be in good hands, as Nick Graziano (began last season as starter) posted a passer rating of 138.07 (would have ranked 27th with enough attempts to qualify) before breaking his foot. Joining the quarterback duo in the backfield is the rarest of all breeds—a pale-faced running back. Luke Lippincott led the WAC in rushing last season, gaining 1420 yards and scoring 15 touchdowns. Paving the way for Lippincott are 4 returning starters on the offensive line, so no matter how Kaepernick or Graziano perform, the running attack should remain outstanding. It’s also worth mentioning that the Wolfpack bring back their top-receiver from 2007, Marko Mitchell (the Wolfpack are an alliterators dream). Mitchell gained over 1100 yards in 2007 and averaged a robust 21.3 yards per catch (2nd in the nation).

On defense, the Wolfpack have some holes to fill. Last season they finished a mediocre 79th in total defense, permitting 415 yards per game. However, in WAC play, only Boise State and Hawaii allowed fewer yards. The Wolfpack lose 3 of their top-4 tacklers from last season and must replace 3/4ths of their starting secondary. Defense will be a question mark for the Wolfpack, but in a league with Idaho, Utah State, and Mexico State, the Wolfpack should have no worries about fielding the worst defense in the league.

Prediction: After the opener against Grambling State, the schedule stiffens significantly. They host Texas Tech the following weekend before traveling to Columbia to take on Missouri. They close the non-conference schedule against UNLV, who they have beaten 3 straight times. However, the Rebels could be one of the most improved teams in the nation, and the game is in Vegas, so a 1-3 start is very realistic. Once conference play starts, the Wolfpack should begin to assert themselves as one of the best teams in the league. They have the good fortune of hosting Boise State, but must face two of the other traditional powers—Fresno State and Hawaii on the road. Nevada was much better in 2007 than their 4-4 conference record would portend. All 4 of their conference losses were by 8 points or less (15 total points). With some better luck in 2008, they will be in contention for the conference crown.


Fresno State
For a team with so-so stats from last season that faces 3 BCS opponents, the Bulldogs are getting a lion’s share of preseason love. Fresno State followed up their first losing season since 1998 with a 9-4 campaign and a Humanitarian Bowl win over Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs went 6-2 in the WAC, with their only losses coming against the two best teams—Boise State and Hawaii. However, despite their 6 wins, the Bulldogs were actually outgained by over 400 yards over the course of the conference season. Both their units were below average in WAC play. The offense finished 6th in yards gained and the defense finished 7th in yards allowed. Those stats typically don’t signal a team destined to win their conference.

The Fresno State offense should certainly improve upon their lower-division finish in 2007. 10 of 11 starters return with the lone loss coming in the form of center Ryan Wendell. Wendell was a 4-year starter, so he will not be easily replaced. However, the other 4 returning starters on the line should be able to pick up any slack from his replacement. Elsewhere, quarterback Tom Brandstater looks to follow in the footsteps of Trent Dilfer, David Carr, and Paul Pinegar and leave an impressive resume in Fresno. Brandstater improved considerably in his second season as a starter in 2007. After posting a passer rating of 106.74 in 2006 (90th in the nation), Brandstater leaped to 140.48 in 2007 (23rd in the nation). Brandstater may give just a little of his improvement back (his 5 interceptions in 2007 are likely to rise), but the offense as a whole should trend towards the top of the WAC.

While the defense does not possess the continuity of the offense, 7 starters do return. 5 of the top-7 tacklers are back, but the Bulldogs do have to replace the 2007 WAC defensive Player of the Year—Marcus Riley. Along with Riley, the other significant loss is on the defensive line where Tyler Clutts (team and WAC-leading 7.5 sacks in 2007) has departed. Despite the loss of those two very talented individuals, the Bulldog defense should also improve. They won’t be the top unit in the WAC, but they should be much better than last season.

Prediction: Non-conference road trips to Rutgers, UCLA, Toledo, and a home contest against Wisconsin should temper the preseason enthusiasm for the Bulldogs. In WAC play, Fresno does get Hawaii and Nevada at home, but must travel to Boise to take on the Broncos. If the Bulldogs 2007 numbers matched their actual record, I would not be hesitant to peg them as the conference favorite heading into 2008 with so much returning talent. However, those numbers didn’t match up, and while the Bulldogs should improve (performance-wise), their record won’t.


Hawaii
2007 was the culmination of nearly a decade of work on the Islands. The Warriors were able to parlay a talented offense, a solid defense, some good fortune, and one of the easiest schedules imaginable into an undefeated regular season and Sugar Bowl bid. Unfortunately, the clock struck midnight in the Sugar Bowl as the Warriors were crushed by the Georgia Bulldogs 41-10. In between that game and their opener against another SEC team (Florida); the Warriors have had to replace their coach, quarterback, and 4 starting wide receivers (among others which we’ll get to later). New head coach Greg McMackin has a lot of holes to plug, and with the nightmarish non-conference schedule, may find the team shutout of a postseason invite.

The Warriors finished the 2007 ranked 3rd nationally in total offense, averaging 512 yards per game. Not surprisingly, they were also the number one offense in WAC play, edging out Nevada by about 15 yards per game. But alas, most of those yards are no longer with the team. Record-setting passer Colt Brennan and his quartet of talented, but overlooked receivers (Ryan Grice-Mullen, Davone Bess, Jason Rivers, and CJ Hawthorne) have all moved on. Among returning players, the leading receiver is either wideout Malcolm Lane (14 receptions for 270 yards in 2007) or running back Kealoha Pilares (26 receptions for 249 yards in 2007), depending on your preference of yards or receptions. On the bright side, the likely starter at quarterback, Tyler Graunke, did see significant action in 2007. He threw a pass in 8 games, and started 2. His passer rating of 156.68 was negligibly lower than Brennan’s (159.84). Graunke also has 3 starting offensive linemen back to help protect him, as well as last season’s top-4 rushers. Still, the Hawaii offense has nowhere to go but down with the matriculation of such talent. Since Jones’ system will remain in place, they should remain in the upper tier of the WAC offenses, but will certainly lose their hold on number one.

While the Hawaii offense got the most of the pub, the defense was like The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance; quietly making plays in the background and avoiding the spotlight. The defense made a number of clutch plays in overtime wins over Louisiana Tech and San Jose State as well as in BCS-busting wins over Boise State and Washington. On the season, the unit ranked 34th nationally in total defense, allowing an average of 348 yards per game. In WAC play, only Boise State was stingier. Like the offense though, the defense too loses a great deal of talent. The two-leading tacklers, linebackers Solomon Elimimian (9th nationally with 141 tackles) and Adam Leonard are back, but 3 quarters of the secondary and defensive line are gone. The defense will struggle to maintain their lofty ranking from 2007.

Prediction: The non-conference schedule contains only 1 sure win among 5 games—Weber State. Of course, one could also argue that there is only 1 sure loss as well—at Florida. But, none of the other 3 games (at Oregon State, home against Washington State, and home against Cincinnati) will be gimmes. 2-3 is probably a realistic expectation, with 3-2 the best possible scenario. In WAC play, Hawaii hosts San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, and Idaho. Prognosticating ahead, it would seem that the only team likely to spring an upset in Honolulu would be Nevada. Of course, that is balanced out by the road schedule where the Warriors face Fresno State, Boise State, Utah State, and New Mexico State. Utah State and New Mexico State are winnable, but realistically the Warriors can probably only hope to grab one of their road conference games. Hawaii has a lot of negative indicators for 2008—the loss of a very good head coach, attrition on offense and defense, and a 5-0 record in one-score games in 2007. Despite all those things, the Warriors homefield advantage (28-5 since 2000 against WAC foes at home with 3 losses coming to Boise State) should keep them in the middle of the WAC if not back in a bowl game.


Louisiana Tech
First-year head coach Derek Dooley enjoyed a solid first season at Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs finished 4-4 (tied for 4th in the WAC) and 5-7 overall. Their brightest moment was probably a 45-44 OT loss to Hawaii. Had they won that game, the Bulldogs would have been bowl-eligible, but the league would have lost out on a big-time payday as Hawaii would have likely stayed on the Islands and played in the Hawaii Bowl instead of traveling to New Orleans for the slightly more prestigious Sugar Bowl. What does Dooley have up his sleeve for an encore? Will another solid campaign make him a hot name in the coaching ranks after the season is over?

Last season Louisiana Tech did not do a whole lot of things well, but they made up for it by also not doing a whole lot of things poorly. Overall, they ranked 86th in total offense and 91st in total defense. Both those rankings are slightly below average, but remember, this is a WAC team, not an SEC member, so it’s best to compare them to their conference brethren. In conference play, they were 7th in yards gained (again slightly below average—the difference between them and the 4th best offense was about 18 yards per game) and 5th in yards allowed. Should either unit be substantially better in 2008? The offense could conceivably improve. While last season’s quarterback, Zac Champion, has concluded his Bulldog career, 8 other offensive starters return. Plus, while Champion was a competent player, his passer rating of 110.50 was not even in the top-100. As a team, the Bulldogs averaged a miniscule 5.6 yards per pass attempt (115th in the nation), a number that should improve even with a new starter under center. The new quarterback will be one of two transfers—Steven Ensminger from Auburn or Taylor Bennett from Georgia Tech. Bennett completed less than half his passes (49.5%) last season at Georgia Tech, so I’d be inclined to name Ensminger as the favorite to win the job. Ensminger will have a number of weapons to work with as the top-4 running backs (led by Patrick Jackson’s 935 yards), every player who caught multiple passes, and 3 starting offensive linemen return. The Bulldog offense should improve, but still remain a notch below those highly efficient units at Boise State, Nevada, and Hawaii.

The defense also returns some playmakers from last season. 4 of the top-5 tacklers from 2007, led by safety Antonio Baker are back. Unfortunately, besides those 4 gentlemen, only one other starter returns. The Bulldogs will certainly miss their departing defensive ends, Chris Pugh and Joshua Muse, who combined for 10.5 of the team’s 23 sacks last season. The defense should be roughly on par with last year’s unit; somewhere in the mish-mash middle of the WAC.

Prediction: The Bulldogs open with a very winnable home game against Mississippi State of the SEC. The other Bulldogs will certainly be favored, but a Tech win would not be extremely shocking. Elsewhere outside the WAC, the Bulldogs must travel to Kansas (certain loss), before hosting SE Louisiana (likely win), and traveling to West Point in the middle of the WAC season to take on Army. At worst, the Bulldogs should be 2-2 outside the conference. In conference play, the Bulldogs must face Boise State, Hawaii, San Jose State, and New Mexico State away from Ruston. Boise State may as well be on the road, but the Bulldogs could certainly benefit from hosting the Warriors, Spartans, or Aggies. The Bulldogs need to steal one of those to have a chance at a bowl bid. The home slate features Idaho, Fresno State, Utah State, and Nevada. Idaho and Utah State are likely wins, while the fact that the Fresno and Nevada games are in Ruston gives the Bulldogs a fighting chance. The Bulldogs have a chance to take 3 of those 4 and once again break even in the WAC. Depending upon their performance outside the league, that may be good enough for a bowl bid.


New Mexico State
It seems to be now or never for the Aggies. In Hall Mumme’s first 3 seasons, New Mexico State has gone a collective 8-29 (3-21 in the WAC), and have only 4 wins over IA foes. With several senior skill position players, this has to be the year Mumme Ball returns to the postseason, or it may be time to start over.

In 2007 New Mexico State averaged 424 yards per game (35th in the nation). However, in WAC play, the Aggies managed only a 5th place finish in yards gained. Hawaii, Nevada, Boise State, and even San Jose State gained more yards in conference play than the Aggies. Now to be fair, the Aggies did suffer some significant injuries in 2007. Quarterback Chase Holbrook missed parts of 2 games (the debacle against Boise State and a 1-point loss the following week to Louisiana Tech). His replacement, JJ McDermott, played very poorly against Boise (no touchdowns and a passer rating of 56.78), and very well against Louisiana Tech (2 touchdowns and a 155.99 rating). The Aggies were not going to win at Boise with or without Holbrook and they lost at Louisiana Tech despite McDermott’s fine game. So it’s hard to say the injury to Holbrook cost them anything except maybe some recruits who viewed the Boise beatdown. The big injury in 2007, and one that likely cost the Aggies a win or 2, was to wide receiver Chris Williams. After gaining over 1400 yards through the air in 2006, Williams began the 2007 season with 53 catches and 746 yards in 7 games. He broked his collarbone in game 8 and missed the last 5 and a half games. The Aggies did beat Idaho in the game when his injury occurred, but lost the last 5 games. Still, the Aggies did gain more yards per game in the last 6 (453 per game) than the first 7 (398 per game), so it’s hard to pin their struggles solely on his injury. All in all, the offense underachieved in 2007 and must be better in 2008 for the Aggies to get back to a bowl. Holbrook and Williams return for their senior campaign, joined by fellow senior receiver AJ Harris (81 catches for 611 yards in 2007) and 3 returning starters on the offensive line. The offense should improve and may challenge Nevada and Boise State for the top spot in the WAC.

The defense, once again, was porous at best in 2007. The Aggies rank in total defense during Mumme’s tenure is listed below. Not good. In WAC play they were not any better. Only Utah State allowed more yards to conference opponents. More than any other, this area will determine what the Aggies are able to achieve in 2008. The Aggies bring back 7 starters, but lose 2 of their top-3 tacklers. It would be hard for the Aggies to be any worse defensively in 2008, but another finish near the bottom of the WAC in defense should be expected.

Prediction: Outside of Nicholls State, there is not a whole lot to like about the non-conference schedule. The Aggies travel to Nebraska and UTEP before hosting New Mexico. While the Aggies did beat the Miners last season, they have not beaten the Lobos since 2002. 2-2 seems to be the ceiling for their non-conference record. In WAC play, the Aggies have the misfortune of hosting Boise State (a likely loss anywhere), but can win the other 3 (San Jose State, Hawaii, and Louisiance Tech). The road conference schedule features 2 very winnable games (Idaho and Utah State) as well as 2 toughies (Nevada and Fresno State). With the offense they have and the likelihood that their turnover margin (-15 in 2007—113th in the nation) will improve, the Aggies have a decent shot at attaining bowl eligibility. However, they are not a contender for the WAC title.


San Jose State
After gaining their first postseason invite since 1990 in 2006, the Spartans slumped somewhat in a 5-7 follow up. However, the Spartans were still solid in WAC play, finishing 4-4 and posting the best yardage margin outside the top-3 schools (Hawaii, Boise State, and Nevada). Unfortunately, some key personnel losses and regression in turnover margin should keep the Spartans out of a bowl game for the second straight season.

Before analyzing the Spartans performance in 2007, I feel it’s appropriate to pay some respect to the Spartans head coach Dick Tomey. For the uninitiated, Tomey guided the Hawaii and Arizona programs before resurrecting the moribund Spartans. Tomey posted a 158-100-7 record at those 2 schools, and since being let go by the Wildcats after suffering only his 3rd losing season in 14 campaigns in 2000, Arizona has gone a collective 28-53, and posted zero winning seasons. Anyway, time to jump off the soapbox. As stated before, the Spartans were a solid WAC team last season. They were 4th in the league in yards gained. Unfortunately, their starting quarterback from last year’s team (and the school’s all-time leading passer), Adam Tafralis, has no eligibility left. His replacement will either be Cal transfer Kyle Reed (who broke his foot in spring practice) or redshirt freshman Jordan LaSecla. Either gentleman will have a bevy of position players to get the ball to. The team’s top-3 receivers all return, highlighted by Kevin Jurovich (85 receptions for 1183 yards last year). In addition, the team’s leading rusher from 2006, Yonus Davis, will likely return for a 6th year of eligibility after carrying the ball only 3 times last season. If Davis is granted a 6th year, the running attack should certainly improve upon the atrocious 2.61 yards per rush (116th in the nation) they averaged last year. Of course, improvement in that area is likely no matter who totes the rock. Collectively, the running game should be better than last season, but with the loss of a senior quarterback, the passing game should decline.

Last season, the Spartan defense finished 4th in WAC play in yards allowed. Again only the big 3 (Boise State, Hawaii, and Nevada) allowed fewer yards. That defense should decline in 2008 as the team’s top-3 tacklers are gone. The Spartans will certainly miss linebacker Matt Castelo who finished 9th in the nation with 141 tackles in 2007. Besides Castelo, the Spartans also lose a second player who posted over 100 tackles in 2007 (linebacker Demetrius Jones). The Spartan defense will be a work in progress and should improve as the year goes on, but should not be as strong as the 2007 version.

Prediction: Besides UC Davis, the non-conference slate is very tough with a home game against San Diego State sandwiched around trips to Nebraska and Stanford. In league play, the Spartans get 3 very winnable games at home (Utah State, Louisiana Tech, and Fresno State). The 4th comes against Boise State. Of course, the Spartans gave BCS-bound Boise all they could handle last time they strolled into town in a 23-20 loss in 2006. The road schedule includes games in 2 very tough venues (Hawaii and Nevada) and 2 very winnable games (New Mexico State and Idaho). The Spartans could conceivable knock off both the Aggies and Vandals, but a loss to one or the other is likely. Another area to watch for the Spartans is turnover margin. The Spartans were +13 last season (7th in the nation), thanks mostly to the fact that they committed only 14 turnovers all season (6th lowest in the nation). Part of that was the measly 11 interceptions that Tafralis threw, but it should also be noted that the Spartans lost only 3 fumbles all season (lowest in the nation). With a new quarterback and worse luck in the random bounces that occur throughout the season, the Spartans should commit a few more turnovers in 2008. This facet of the team will contribute greatly to their bowl-less campaign.


Idaho
Robb Akey begins his second season in Moscow hoping to win his first WAC game and notch his first victory over a Division IA program in 2008. As one of only 4 Division IA teams that plays its home games in a dome (Syracuse, Minnesota, and Tulane are the others), I’ve always been fascinated by the Vandals. Do the Vandals enjoy any kind of special homefield advantage by playing their home games indoors? With the regular season set to begin in less than 5 weeks, I don’t have the time, energy, or wherewithal to conduct a systematic study of all 119 Division IA teams, but I will offer a miniscule analysis of Idaho’s 2007 season with some home/road splits. The following table displays Idaho’s performance at home and on the road in 2007. For a fair comparison, their road game against Southern Cal is not included as the Trojans are in another stratosphere talent wise, and that game would only serve to skew their road numbers. As you can see, Idaho was actually a solid team at home, outgaining their foes by about 8 yards per game. Unfortunately, this did not translate to wins (1-5 at home) thanks to their poor turnover margin (-4) and some other extenuating factors. This fact is best illustrated in their game against Northern Illinois. The Vandals outgained the Huskies by 230 yards (586 to 356), but lost 42-35 thanks to 3 non-offensive touchdowns from the Huskies (a 95-yard interception return, a blocked punt recovered in the end zone, and a fumble recovery in the end zone).

Despite their winless record in the conference, the Vandals were far from the worst team in the league. Based on the yardage version of SDPI, the Vandals were better than both New Mexico State and Utah State. With 10 starters returning on the offensive side of the ball (the lone departing starter is a guard), the Vandals have a chance to rise in the standings. The starters who do return on the offensive line are all seniors so sophomore running back, and nephew of St. Louis Rams’ running back Steven Jackson, Deonte Jackson (1175 yards in 2007) should easily go over the 1000-yard mark again.

On defense, the future does not appear to be as bright. Only 4 starters return, and the Vandals lose 5 of their top-6 tacklers. While they were far from a dominant force last season (6th in yards allowed in conference play), the loss of so many experienced players should cause a decline.

Prediction: The Vandals have lost 13 straight games against WAC foes and 16 straight to Division IA teams. Both of those streaks should come to an end when the Vandals travel to Utah State on September 20th. With winnable conference home games against New Mexico State and San Jose State, the Vandals could conceivably win 3 or 4 times as many games as last season.


Utah State
The Aggies are the youngest son in the Utah family. You know, the one who dropped out of school and is currently ‘between jobs’, depending on the kindness and couches of others for sustenance and sleep. Older brothers BYU (doctor) and Utah (lawyer) constantly look down and berate them for their failed life choices. Can the Aggies get their big break in the form of a Power Ball ticket in 2008 (first winning season since 1997)?

Despite their 2 conference wins in 2007, the Aggies were by far the worst team in the WAC. They gained the fewest yards among their conference brethren and allowed the most. The only thing the Aggies did well in 2007 was complete a high percentage of their passes. Their team completion percentage of 65.1% ranked 12th in the nation. Unfortunately, their starting quarterback from last season, Leon Jackson, has exhausted his eligibility. Aside from Jackson, the offense also loses leading-receiver Kevin Robinson. 6 starters, including 3 along the offensive line, do return, but the Aggies will be hard-pressed to improve offensively.

On defense, the Aggies could shine (relatively) in 2008. 9 starters, including the top-7 tacklers return. Of course, as mentioned earlier, last year’s defense was the worst unit in the WAC. If nothing else, the Aggies should do a better job at getting to opposing passers in 2008. The Aggies totaled only 11.5 sacks last season (116th in the nation) so it would be hard to be any worse. The defense should be marginally better, but still among the worst in the WAC.

Prediction: With UNLV, Oregon, Utah, and BYU on the non-conference slate, the Aggies had better win a conference game or they could be looking at an 0-12 year. Their best chance for a conference win will come either in the conference opener (hosting Idaho) or the finale (hosting New Mexico State). With improvements elsewhere in the league, I’ll call for a winless campaign in 2008 and a new coach in 2009.

Predicted Records: