The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII

Three straight 3-4 weeks have us on the brink. The previews will be a little short this week as I head home for the holidays. Enjoy. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 41-39-4

NC State +12 North Carolina
While North Carolina has had more success over the past few years than their in-state brethren, the Wolfpack have actually won six of the last nine in this rivalry. In fact, North Carolina has not won by enough to cover this large number since 2006. North Carolina is playing for a longshot at a second consecutive division title, but they need to win and have Virginia Tech lose (as a large favorite) to their in-state rival Virginia. Meanwhile, NC State is playing for a bowl bid and potentially for their coach's job. NC State has had a very odd season, nearly beating Clemson (on the road) and Florida State, but losing to East Carolina and Syracuse. I think good NC State will show up and keep this one close against their rival.

Michigan +6.5 Ohio State
Last year in Ann Arbor, this game was a pick 'em. However, if you looked at the numbers, you could see that Michigan's elite defense was showing some cracks late in the year. This season, the Wolverines are nearly a touchdown underdog, but the defense remains elite. There is some concern on the other side of the ball as Michigan could be without quarterback Will Speight. Even without Speight, I think Ohio State will find scoring very difficult on this defense. This line should be closer to a field goal, and despite the rooting interest at State College, Pennsylvania, and perhaps from the College Football Playoff Committee, I think Michigan could win their first game in Columbus since 2000.

Fresno State +3.5 San Jose State
Fresno State has won just a single game in 2016. Their poor performance got their head coach canned just three years after winning the conference title and just two years removed from playing for another. The Bulldogs have eschewed waiting until the season ended and landed Jeff Tedford as their next head coach. The Bulldogs hope the former Cal coach can revitalize an offense that ranks dead last in the Mountain West in yards per play. Despite their struggles on offense, the Bulldogs have played well at home, covering in the four games in which they were a betting underdog. San Jose State is suffering through their third straight losing season and is also pretty poor on offense, ranking eleventh (of twelve teams) in the Mountain West in yards per play. Their defense is also bad, ranking tenth in the conference in yards allowed per play. San Jose State is not a good team, and having them favored by more than a field goal provides some value for Fresno State.

UNLV -7.5 Nevada
UNLV has a chance to improve by two games in Tony Sanchez's second season. In fact, the Rebels will probably be kicking themselves in the offseason for losing to Idaho in late September. If not for that loss, UNLV would be playing for bowl eligibility against their in-state rivals. While Nevada has the same record as UNLV, a closer look at the statistics reveals their flaws. Nevada has won three of their games by a combined seven points and have lost seven consecutive road games dating back to last season with only two losses coming by fewer than a touchdown. Look for UNLV to roll here.

North Texas -3 UTEP
Last week, I was on UTEP as they traveled to take on in-state rival Rice. The Miners played horribly, and maybe this pick is just sour grapes. However, I can come up with a few reasons to like the Mean Green. For starters, North Texas is playing for bowl eligibility. By winning in El Paso, the Mean Green will get to six wins in the first season under Seth Littrell. The Mean Green are not particularly proficient on offense, but they do play solid defense, ranking sixth in Conference USA in yards allowed per play. UTEP has the second worst defense in Conference USA. They rank ahead of Rice, a team that beat them by 20 points last week. UTEP has failed to cover in three attempts as a home underdog this season. I think they will be four for four after Saturday.

Vanderbilt +7.5 Tennessee
One of the bigger upsets that came out of nowhere last week was Vanderbilt knocking off Ole Miss to put themselves in position to crash the postseason. The Commodores averaged over six yards per play against an FBS opponent for the first time since their victory against Old Dominion two years ago. It was the first time they averaged over six yards per play against an SEC opponent since their game against a deplorable South Carolina defense in 2014. The defense also held a potent Ole Miss offense to under five yards per play and put the Rebels bowl hopes in jeopardy (they need to win the Egg Bowl to become eligible). Can Vanderbilt pull two consecutive upsets and their fourth of the season as at least a touchdown underdog? Tennessee is ostensibly better than Vanderbilt, but what is their motivation here? The SEC East is lost after Florida upset LSU last week. Sure, this is a rivalry game, but I think Vanderbilt will have more motivation, not to mention the homefield advantage. Tennessee has not covered as a road favorite this year, while Vanderbilt is 7-3 Against the Spread (ATS) and 5-1 the last two seasons as a home underdog under Derek Mason. Vandy will keep this one close and potentially get themselves a bowl bid on Saturday night.

Utah State +18.5 BYU
After an exciting beginning to the season where BYU played six Power Five teams and Boise State, the Cougars are cruising to the finish line against a slew of bad mid-majors and an FCS team. Since losing at Boise State 28-27, the Cougars have won their last three games against Cincinnati, Southern Utah, and Massachusetts by a combined 89 points. Now they take on a Utah State team enduring a rough 2016. The Aggies are 3-8 on the year and finished just 1-7 in the Mountain West. However, Utah State is not your average 1-7 also-ran. The Aggies lost four games by a touchdown or less and based on yards per play, actually rank in the top half of the Mountain West. Their defense in particular, was strong, ranking second in the conference in yards allowed per play. While this has been a lost season for Utah State, this a rivalry game so the Aggies should be motivated. Utah State is better than their record and is a good value catching three scores against BYU.

The Magnificent Seven: Week XII

We endured another losing week last week to put us just below the gambler's break even line. We'll try to climb back over it this week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 38-35-4

Illinois +10 Iowa
Last week, I was on the Illini and I was dead wrong. So why not go back for more hair of the dog? Iowa is riding high after one of the more impressive wins of the Kirk Ferentz era. I know the Hawkeyes were undefeated in the regular season last year, but all of their wins pale in comparison to their upset over the Wolverines last week. Despite the win, Iowa still rates out as a below average Big 10 team. Based on yards per play, the Hawkeyes rank thirteenth in the fourteen team Big 10, with only Rutgers rating worse. This will be Iowa's fifth Big 10 road game of the year. In three of the other four games, the Hawkeyes managed 14 points. They did drop 49 on Purdue, but the Boilermakers have by far the worst defense in the Big 10 (allowing over seven yards per play to conference opponents). Illinois may not have the players to win this game, but this has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring slog. The Noon kickoff and Michigan hangover should aid Illinois in covering this big number.

UTEP +1.5 Rice
I know Rice earned their first FBS win last week on the road against Charlotte, but they may still be the worst team in all of college football (FBS category). The Owls inched by the 49ers, but they still averaged under five yards per play and scored 22 points against the FBS neophyte. The Owls did post their best defensive showing, holding Charlotte to just over four yards per play, but are still dead last in Conference USA in yards allowed per play. UTEP is not a great offensive team, but they do one thing well - run the ball. Junior running back Aaron Jones is averaging over seven yards per carry and has eclipsed 200 yards on the ground three times this season. He should be licking his chops in preparing for the Rice 'defense'. Rice is typically tough at home under David Bailiff, but after going 31-14 in the friendly confines from 2008-2015, the Owls are just 1-4 this season, with zero FBS wins. UTEP is far from a sure thing, but I think they can pull of the outright upset here.

Virginia +11 Georgia Tech
Seeing as how I bet a significant sum in Vegas on Georgia Tech exceeding their preseason win total of 6.5, I watched a great deal of the Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech game last week. Coming into the game, the Yellow Jackets were nearly two touchdown underdogs, so my optimism was subdued. The Yellow Jackets ended up winning the game without quarterback Justin Thomas and running back Dedrick Mills who did not play due to injury and suspension respectively. Despite the win, it pays to look objectively at how the Yellow Jackets were able to get it done and see if that blueprint is repeatable. Georgia Tech forced a fumble on the opening kickoff, intercepted Virginia Tech quarterback Jerod Evans in the endzone, forced two additional turnovers, and blocked a field goal. After forcing just nine turnovers in their first nine games, Georgia Tech was probably due for some additional luck in forcing turnovers, but relying too heavily on turnovers is often not a recipe for success. If we look at season long numbers, Georgia Tech ranks dead last in the ACC in yards allowed per play. Four conference opponents have averaged north of six yards per play against Georgia Tech, and the struggling offense of Boston College came close. The Yellow Jackets have almost no pass rush, with the defense totaling just thirteen sacks on the year, with five coming against Virginia Tech. I don't think Georgia Tech solved all their defensive issues in Blacksburg. The Yellow Jackets played their best defensive game of the year and caught their fair share of breaks. Virginia is not a good team, but they are capable of moving the ball against a porous Georgia Tech defense. I expect a lot of points to be put on the board in Atlanta with Georgia Tech eking out a win to cash the 'over' ticket.

Virginia Tech +1 Notre Dame
I already touched on Virginia Tech's loss last week earlier in this post, so I won't rehash it here, but suffice it to say a lot of things went against the Hokies. Could the same thing happen this week? Sure, but I wouldn't bet on it. When we look back on this season, I get the feeling it will feel like a big missed opportunity for Virginia Tech. The Hokies outgained and averaged more yards per play than Tennessee, but fell thanks to five lost fumbles. In their other two losses, to Georgia Tech and Syracuse, the Hokies entered as large favorites. The Hokies don't really appear to be a legitimate playoff contender, but if a few different things had fallen their way, they could very well be in the top-ten at this moment. As it is, they are unranked and looking to avoid a fifth consecutive four-loss regular season. Notre Dame is a little overvalued here after dismantling Army last week, but they already have three home losses this season, with two coming to Duke and Michigan State. Look for Virginia Tech to rebound and leave South Bend with an outright win on Saturday.

Iowa State +3.5 Texas Tech
If you just glance at final scores and don't keep a close eye on college football, you might be inclined to believe that Texas Tech is who they have always been under Kliff Kingsbury - a team with a great offense and equally poor defense. You would be half right. Tech's defense is still deplorable, ranking tenth in the Big 12 in yards allowed per play. However, their offense is also below average, particularly by Big 12 standards. After ranking second in yards per play each of the past two seasons, the Red Raiders currently sit at seventh in that category this season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is still slinging the ball around the yard, but the Texas Tech run game has struggled. After averaging over five yards per carry (including sacks) the past two seasons, the running game is currently averaging just 3.3 yards per rush. The Red Raiders have struggled to find a consistent running threat as the leading rusher has just over 300 yards on the season. Texas Tech has not covered as a road favorite since 2013, and Iowa State is 3-0 Against the Spread (ATS) as a home underdog under first year coach Matt Campbell. Look for Iowa State to earn their second Big 12 win on Saturday and keep Texas Tech home for the holidays.

California +10.5 Stanford
Cal was another team that I backed last week, and like Illinois, they did not come close to covering. And like Illinois, I am on California once again. Here's why. Last week's opponent, Washington State, has a dynamic offense and throws the ball a lot. This week's opponent, Stanford, prefers a more methodical, run-based approach. That slow pace featuring a lot of runs, and poor quarterback play, means fewer possessions and more of an opportunity for a large underdog to cover. Cal is 3-1 ATS as a home underdog this season with three outright wins. I don't think they will be able to beat Stanford for the first time since 2009 (amazing!), but they should keep this one close.

Tulsa -1.5 Central Florida
Tulsa missed a great opportunity last week to put themselves in position to win the western division of the American Athletic Conference. The Golden Hurricane lost in a shootout at Navy giving the Midshipmen control of the division race. Despite the loss, Tulsa is still in position to post their most regular season wins since 2012. In their second season under Philip Montgomery, the offense has become one of the best in the mid-major universe on a per play basis. Couple that with a fast pace and Tulsa is able to put a lot of points on the board. In fact, outside of their poor showing at Ohio State, the Golden Hurricane have averaged over 46 points per game! Central Florida has a good defense, ranking second in the American in yards allowed per play. However, the only defense to slow down Tulsa is one of the top teams in the Big 10. Tulsa may struggle for a bit in this game against the Central Florida defense, but they will do enough to earn a conference road win.

The Magnificent Seven: Week XI

We slipped a little last week, but 3-4 is not a total disaster. We'll try to get back on track this week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 35-31-4

Louisiana-Lafayette +9 Georgia Southern
It appears as if the loss of head coach Willie Fritz neutered the offense in Statesboro. In their first two seasons in the Sun Belt, the Eagles of Georgia Southern ranked first and second respectively in the conference in yards per play. This season, they rank ninth in the eleven team league, and are averaging under five yards per play against Sun Belt foes! The running game has borne the blunt of the decline. After averaging nearly seven yards per play on the ground the past two seasons, the Eagles are averaging under four and half yards per carry. With three guaranteed games left (four if they qualify for a bowl), the Eagles are in danger of failing to have a 1000 yard rusher after producing three over the past two seasons. Not sure how else I can say it, but the offense is not that good. And the defense, head coach Tyson Summers area of expertise, has also declined, ranking a middling seventh in the Sun Belt in yards allowed per play after finishing second and third in the category the past two years. Of course, their opponent, Louisiana-Lafayette has also struggled in 2016. After winning more than three fourths of their conference games from 2011-2014, the Ragin' Cajuns have won just five of their last thirteen conference games and are in danger of missing out on a bowl for the second consecutive season. Louisiana-Lafayette needs this game more than Georgia Southern as they have Georgia on deck and two defeats will disqualify them from postseason play. Couple that with the fact that these teams appear to be pretty evenly matched and the Ragin' Cajuns are a solid play here.

SMU +7 East Carolina
Despite their embarrassing loss to Memphis last week, SMU still has an outside shot at getting to a bowl in their second year under Chad Morris. While Morris earned his acclaim as an offensive guru, the improvement for the Mustangs has been on the other side of the ball. In conference play last year, SMU ranked tenth (of twelve teams) in both yards per play and yards allowed per play. This season, the Mustangs still rank tenth in yards per play on offense (potentially thanks to losing quarterback Matt Davis early in the year), but have risen to fifth in yards allowed per play. That improvement has allowed the Mustangs to double their conference win total from last season. On the other sideline, East Carolina has struggled in their first season under Scottie Montgomery. The season began with promise as the Pirates opened 2-0 with an upset win over NC State in their second game. Since then, the Pirates have lost six of seven with just a single defeat coming by less than a touchdown. Unlike the Mustangs, the Pirates have cratered on defense, ranking last in the league in yards allowed per play. Outside of their showing against Connecticut, the Pirates have allowed at least 30 points in every conference game and while they run a lot of plays (ranking fourth in the nation in plays run), they are not very efficient. In league play, they rank just seventh in yards per play. This spread should be closer to a field goal and I wouldn't be surprised if SMU won the game outright.

West Virginia +2 Texas
This line has me a little perplexed. West Virginia stumbled on the road two weeks ago against Oklahoma State, but despite allowing 37 points, the defense played well. The Mountaineers held Oklahoma State to a little over five yards per play, but were done in by three turnovers. Despite the loss, West Virginia still controls their own destiny in regards to the Big 12 title, and with a little (actually a lot) of chaos in front of them could potentially get back into the playoff picture. For Texas, this game is big for another reason. A win would give Texas six wins, clinch bowl eligibility, and with Kansas up next, likely clinch a winning season for the seemingly perpetually embattled Charlie Strong. Texas has improved on defense since demoting defensive coordinator Vance Bedford. They had their best defensive showing of the season last week in beating Texas Tech in Lubbock. The Longhorns held the Red Raiders under five yards per play (which has happened three times in the last four games for the Red Raiders - just something to keep an eye on). Despite that showing, West Virginia still owns the best defense in the Big 12 and should be able to clamp down on a running attack that gained over 400 yards against the Red Raiders. This game should be close, but West Virginia is the better team and should be able to win on the road.

Appalachian State +1 Troy
While this game will not receive a tenth of the hype of Alabama/LSU, make no mistake, this is the Game of the Century in the Sun Belt. My heart wants Troy to win this game as the Trojans are 29th in the latest AP Poll, and with a win could become the first Sun Belt team to ever enter the poll. Of course, Appalachian State could find their way into the polls too if they win out, but an 11-2 Appalachian State team was denied entry into the polls last season, so it is far from guaranteed. Both these teams performed admirably in non-conference play. Troy lost a one-score game at Clemson (and made us all wonder what was wrong with the Tigers) and won on the road at Southern Miss, while Appalachian State took Tennessee to overtime in Knoxville, beat a pair of potential bowl mid-majors in Old Dominion and Akron, and then played Miami at home. Maybe let's not talk about that game. Once conference play began, these two have dominated. Appalachian State is 5-0 with no win coming by fewer than 14 points while Troy is 4-0 with a touchdown win over South Alabama and three dominant victories. These teams rank first and second in the Sun Belt respectively in yards per play, but the difference is on the other side of the ball. While Troy has been solid on defense, ranking fifth in yards allowed per play in the Sun Belt, Appalachian State ranks first by a large margin, in allowing nearly a yard and a half fewer per play than the Trojans. You will have to watch this game on your phone, tablet, or laptop, but tune in to watch Appalachian State take control of the Sun Belt.

Illinois +26 Wisconsin
Let me preface this by saying that Wisconsin is good. Real good. The Badgers are 7-2 with their defeats coming to Michigan and Ohio State by a combined 14 points (with one loss coming in overtime). That being said, Wisconsin is not a team that tends to blow opponents out. The spread in this game is 26 points. The Badgers have scored more than 26 points twice this season. They dropped 54 on Akron and scored 30 against Michigan State. Illinois is not a good team, although they technically still have a shot at a bowl game in their first season under Lovie Smith. The Illini do have the excuse that four of their losses have come to teams currently ranked in the top-25. Of course, they also lost to Purdue. If Illinois can get to one touchdown, or even just a pair of field goals against a stout Wisconsin defense, that means the Badgers will have to score at least four touchdowns to cover. Illinois won't threaten to win this game, but they should cover easily.

Maryland +29.5 Ohio State
This a literal ton of points to lay for an Ohio State team that has had their fair share of offensive glitches this season. I know the Buckeyes dropped 62 on Nebraska last week, but they also averaged just over 28 points per game in their previous four. Maryland is not a Sun Belt school that will roll over for the Buckeyes. The Terrapins are not national title contenders, but with five wins, they will probably qualify for a bowl in D.J. Durkin's first season. This spread is about a touchdown too high thanks to the respective blowouts on both sides last week. Maryland went into Ann Arbor and lost 59-3 to an elite Michigan team. However, Maryland did a few good things in that game. The Terrapins averaged over five and half yards per play, which is the most Michigan has allowed this season at home. I will omit the fact that they allowed ten yards per play to the Wolverines, but returning to the friendly confines of College Park should help them a little. I'm not sure if he said it first, but I know Lou Holtz said you have 'a different team every week'. Ohio State won't play as well as they did last week (perhaps due to motivation) and Maryland won't play as bad. Like, Illinois above, the Terrapins won't threaten to win this game, but they will easily cover.

California +14.5 Washington State
Since opening the season 0-2, Washington State has been on a roll. The Cougars have won seven straight games for the first time since 2002. While the Cougars have won seven in a row, they have not been quite as dominant as that unblemished record would indicate as three of the wins have come by six points or less. The most recent game for both teams is inflating this line by about a field goal or so. Washington State dominated a bad Arizona team while Cal lost to the Pac-12's best shot at getting into the playoff. Washington State is rightly favored in this game, but the difference on a per play basis is not that great, especially once you adjust for strength of schedule. In Pac-12 play, both schools have three common opponents: Arizona State, Oregon, and Oregon State. In Washington State's other three conference games, they have played Arizona, Stanford, and UCLA. Arizona is bad, Stanford is alright, but not as strong as they were over the past few seasons, and UCLA was without quarterback Josh Rosen in their game with the Cougars. Meanwhile, Cal has played Southern Cal, Utah, and Washington. Southern Cal was embarrassed by Alabama to open the year, but is playing its best football in a long time. Utah is not quite as good as their sterling record would indicate, but is a quality team, and Washington is probably the best team in the league. Cal does not have the defense to beat Washington State in Pullman, but they should keep this one within two touchdowns.

The Magnificent Seven: Week X

We got back to our winning ways last week. 4-3 won't set any records, but we'll take it. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 32-27-4

Buffalo +20 Ohio
In college football, as in life, sometimes you just never know. Last week, Buffalo hosted a decent Akron team and was nearly a three touchdown underdog. The Bulls had lost four straight games while scoring a combined 51 points. Then they went and dropped 41 points on the Zips in an easy three touchdown win. Senior running back Jordan Johnson, who came in with four career 100-yard rush games, rushed for nearly 300 yards against the Zips and the Bulls ended a six game conference losing streak. Ohio also won outright last week as a big underdog when they upset Toledo in the Glass Bowl. The win moved the Bobcats to 4-1 in the MAC East and gave them control of the division. Ohio has a great shot at getting back to the MAC Championship game for the first time since 2011, but alas, an irresistible force appears to be looming in the other division. The Bobcats are better than the Bulls, but Ohio is already 0-2 Against the Spread (ATS) as a double-digit home favorite this season and has not beaten any team (FBS or FCS) by more than 16 points in 2016.

Georgia Tech +10.5 North Carolina
After enduring a rough 3-9 campaign in 2015, Georgia Tech has improved enough to at least qualify for a bowl in 2016. The Yellow Jackets need just a single additional win to double last season's win total and clinch a postseason berth. Last week's game against Duke, which got the Jackets to five wins, was a nail biter and Georgia Tech should thank their lucky stars Justin Thomas is still quarterbacking the team. Thomas threw for 264 yards on just 14 attempts and added another 195 yards on the ground in the narrow win against the Blue Devils. The reason Georgia Tech didn't roll to victory was, as usual, the defense. Thanks to their run-oriented offense, Paul Johnson is able to hide his poor defense. The Yellow Jackets rank a respectable 40th in total defense, but are a less respectable 73rd in yards allowed per play. The main problem is a pass rush that has generated just eight sacks on the season (only six teams have fewer). North Carolina should be able to move the ball against Georgia Tech and pro prospect Mitch Trubisky should have plenty of time to throw in his fortress of solitude. However, I think Georgia Tech will be able to move the ball against the Tar Heels as well. Even though North Carolina is much improved defensively under coordinator Gene Chizik, they still allowed 31 points to this offense last season and were gouged by what has ended up being a mediocre (or worse) Georgia run game. With Georgia Tech's option, this game will have fewer possessions than a typical college football game so the margin of victory could be depressed. I don't know that Georgia Tech can get enough stops (barring a deluge of turnovers) to win this game, but they can certainly get enough to cover. And if you don't have anything better to watch in the early window on Saturday, tune in here. Justin Thomas has four guaranteed games remaining in his college career (hopefully five with a bowl bid). He has been a great and underappreciated college player. Watch him here.

Wake Forest -3 Virginia
Needing just a single win to clinch their first postseason appearance since 2011, Wake Forest lost at home to Army last week. While the loss was bad for Wake Forest fans like me, it could be good for your wallet this week. I never deal in absolutes, but Wake Forest is probably a better team than Army. Alas, upsets happen, and the loss to the Black Knights coupled with Virginia's narrow home loss to Louisville has this line probably about a field goal lower than it should be. Keep in mind that while Virginia led Louisville late in that game, they still averaged under five yards per play against the Cardinals and in conference play are currently second to last in that category. Of course, Wake Forest is third to last, so don't expect this game to be a shootout. Wake Forest is pretty good defensively, holding six of eight opponents to 21 points or less. Wake won't blow out the Cavaliers, but they should do enough to win by about a touchdown.

Oregon State +14.5 Stanford
While it may not show in the overall record, this version of Oregon State is far superior to the version the Beavers put on the field last season. After staying within one score of just a single Power Five opponent last season, the Beavers have three such close losses this season and even managed to win their first conference game in 22 months. Oregon State lost their starting quarterback, when Darell Garretson injured his ankle against Utah, but his replacement Marcus McMaryion has actually outplayed him. Garretson averaged just 4.2 yards per pass despite getting an opportunity to boost his numbers against an FCS team. While McMaryion lacks the elusiveness of Garretson, he has averaged over seven yards per pass and nearly led the team to an upset of Washington State last week. Can he lead them to an upset of a Stanford team that appears to be a shell of its former self? While the Cardinal did score 34 points last week, breaking the 30-point barrier for the first time all season,  they still averaged under five yards per play and quarterback Keller Chryst completed less than half his passes against a bad Arizona defense. Stanford is still living off their reputation from the previous six or seven years. This line is at least a field goal too high. Take Oregon State to cover for the sixth time this season as a double digit underdog.

Missouri +7 South Carolina
The narrative on South Carolina has changed dramatically eh? Two weeks ago they were 2-4 and burning the redshirt on a quarterback to try get to a lower tier bowl. Hell, five days ago, they were two touchdown underdogs to Tennessee. Now, the Gamecocks are favored to win by more points than they have beaten any opponent by in 2016! In fact, the Gamecocks have not won a game by more than six points since last October against Vanderbilt. I think the market has shifted too dramatically towards South Carolina. Keep in mind, while they did beat a Tennessee team that was ranked last week (and may be imploding), the Gamecocks still averaged under five yards per play against the Vols and scored just 24 points. Jake Bentley did not turn the ball over, but no one is going to confuse this offense with Baylor. Missouri is bad. They may go winless in the SEC one season after posting a 1-7 league mark, but this seems like a prime letdown spot for the Gamecocks. Missouri has scored just 21 points in their two SEC road games, but those came against LSU and Florida. South Carolina is not in that class. Missouri will keep this one close.

Tulane +17 Central Florida
Its November, and both these teams under first year head coaches still harbor bowl aspirations after combining for a 3-21 record last season. If Central Florida wins, they will need to find just a single win the rest of the way to become bowl eligible, while Tulane has to win three of four including this one to finish 6-6. Both schools have struggled offensively under their first year head coaches. Tulane has struggled in taking to the option run by head coach Willie Fritz. The Green Wave are 16th nationally in rushing offense, but they are ninth in rush attempts. In addition, unlike other option teams (see Georgia Tech and Navy) that boast an obscene average when they do throw the ball thanks to the surprise/misdirection factor, the Green Wave are averaging just a little north of five yards per throw which is ahead of only Rutgers. Meanwhile Central Florida has been competent passing the football, with freshman quarterback McKenzie Milton taking over for senior Justin Holman and averaging over seven yards per pass. The running game on the other hand has struggled, with their top-two backs both averaging under four yards per carry. The last time Tulane ventured to the Magic Kingdom, they faced a Central Florida team that would eventually tie for the American Athletic Conference championship and only lost by a touchdown. Central Florida is too limited offensively to be favored by three scores against a competent FBS team. Take the Green Wave to keep this one close.

Tulsa -7.5 East Carolina
Phillip Montgomery has the Golden Hurricane in contention for the American Athletic Conference title in just his second season. The Art Briles disciple has brought the fast pace back to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane were one of the first team's to use pace as a weapon when Gus Malzahn became their offensive coordinator in 2007. Wonder whatever happened to that guy? Anyway, the reason Tulsa has gone from fringe bowl team to conference contender is on account of the defense. In conference play, Tulsa was second to last in yards allowed per play last season. Their defense is nearly a yard better per play this season and ranks sixth in the league. When your offense plays fast and efficiently, you only need a few stops to put your opponent away. This line is just a little over a touchdown and both these teams play very fast, so there will be more possessions than your typical college football game. Tulsa will have ample opportunity to get out in front of this number. Take Tulsa before Vegas gets on to them and inflates their spreads.

The Magnificent Seven: Week IX

We took a step back after three straight winning weeks, but we are still above water on the season. Let's try to keep it that way. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 2-4-1
Overall: 28-24-4

Iowa State +6.5 Kansas State
The latest edition of 'Farmageddon' has me going against my favorite college football coach. While Bill Snyder has excelled in winning games and covering the spread since he returned to the sidelines in 2009, Iowa State has been one team that has frequently frustrated him, at least when it comes to cashing tickets. Snyder is 7-0 straight up against the Cyclones, but just 3-3-1 Against the Spread (ATS) including 2-3-1 in the role of favorite. Six of the seven games have been decided by a touchdown or less, with the lone exception being three years ago in Manhattan. Kansas State has won the last two games in Ames by a combined 10 points with teams that appear to be markedly better than the one they are putting on the field this season. Iowa State has had a week off to prepare for the Wildcats while Kansas State has not had a break since early September. Kansas State plays at a slow pace, so the possessions will be limited here and the potential margin of victory will be depressed. Take the Cyclones to keep this one close.

Michigan State +23 Michigan
Michigan State, a program that had gone 36-5 over the past three seasons with a pair of Big 10 championships and one playoff appearance is dangerously close to missing out on a bowl game for the first time under Mark Dantonio. The Spartans are just 2-5 and with games remaining against Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State appear headed for 4-8 at best. The interesting fact about Michigan State is they have not been horrendous on a per play basis. In fact, in their Big 10 games, they have actually outgained their opponents in terms of yards per play despite their 0-4 mark. I would assume the football gods are debiting their account for their incredible record despite middling yards per play numbers last season. Michigan on the other hand, has been exceedingly dominant through the first two months of the season. Their only close win came against Wisconsin. Outside of that game with the Badgers, only Colorado has come within three scores of them. However, it is also important to note that Michigan has played just one road game thus far and it came against Rutgers. Despite their poor record, Michigan State will be up for their in-state rival. This spread is probably a touchdown too high thanks to Michigan State's record, which is not indicative of their play thus far and Michigan's 'brand' under Jim Harbaugh. Michigan is far from a sure thing on the road under Harbaugh, as they failed to cover as a large favorite against both Indiana and Minnesota last season and could have actually lost both games. I don't see a tenable path for Michigan State to win here, but this game will be closer than three touchdowns.

Notre Dame +2.5 Miami
Just three short weeks ago, Miami was back under Mark Richt. Since that 4-0 start, the Hurricanes have dropped three straight conference games to fall out of the Coastal Division race. While the competition was strong, Miami was actually favored in two of those games, which is a trend Richt has continued from his days at Georgia. In his final three seasons in Athens, Richt lost eight regular season games as a betting favorite (nine overall if we include the Gator Bowl against Nebraska). Four of those losses came in a role similar to where the Hurricanes find themselves on Saturday: as a small road favorite. Provided they have not mutinied against Brian Kelly, Notre Dame should be a desperate team playing at home off a bye. The Irish are 2-5 and need four victories in their final five games to qualify for a bowl. It won't be as lavish as the Fiesta Bowl they played in last season, but it would mark their seventh consecutive postseason appearance under Kelly. If you squint hard enough, you can see some defensive improvement since the Irish fired Brian VanGorder. The Irish have allowed under six yards per play to their last three opponents since jettisoning VanGorder. Of course, one of those games was played in a monsoon and the other was against the impotent offense of Stanford (more on them later), but we are all about positives here at Statistically Speaking. Other than Richt's history in this role and the homefield advantage for Notre Dame, I don't have a lot of overwhelming reasons to take the Irish, but this just feels like a game Miami and Richt are destined to lose.  

Ole Miss +4 Auburn
Will Ole Miss rejoin the polls with a 4-4 record should they win here? Has any coach gone from genius to hot seat back to genius faster than Gus Malzahn? Will Malzahn still be considered a genius if his team loses a tight game on the road against a quality foe? This game is dripping with storylines and should make Paul Finebaum's show on Monday must-see TV. I think Ole Miss is a solid play here for several reasons. Auburn will likely never be more overvalued than they are this week after their dismantling of Arkansas last week. However, before we go comparing Auburn to the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers, remember that Arkansas has allowed over ten yards per play to both Alabama and Texas A&M this season, meaning their showing against Auburn was only the third worst the defense has played this season. Plus, while Ole Miss was run over by LSU last week, Auburn is more of a finesse running team instead of a sledgehammer power team like LSU. And let's now forget this is only Auburn's second road trip of the season. Their other game away from Jordan-Hare came against Mississippi State, which is easily the West's worst team. Ole Miss is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog under Hugh Freeze and has three outright wins included among those six covers. Look for the Rebels to get back on track and slow Auburn's momentum on Saturday night.

South Carolina +13.5 Tennessee
Being a resident of Columbia, I hear a great deal about the Gamecocks around the watercooler, on talk radio, and yes, even on the internet. The big talk around Columbia the past ten days or so has been the new Bentley the Gamecocks have been driving. Will Muschamp, in an effort to qualify for the, I don't know, Camping World Independence Bowl, burned the redshirt of quarterback Jake Bentley in an effort to jumpstart the offense. It worked to some extent as the Gamecocks scored a season high 34 points against Massachusetts last week. It was Massachusetts, who is not a burgeoning football power, but the Gamecocks had struggled to score against other poor defenses like East Carolina and Kentucky, so there is at least a little reason for optimism. Now, Tennessee comes to town to begin the JV portion of their SEC schedule. After opening conference play with Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama, the Volunteers close with South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt in their quest to win the SEC East for the first time in nearly a decade. While the Vols are 5-2 and ranked 18th in the latest AP Poll, they have been far from dominant. The Volunteers needed overtime to survive Appalachian State at home, struggled with Ohio, and needed a Hail Mary conversion to beat an extremely flawed Georgia team before dropping two straight to a pair of SEC West powers. Even in their weakened state, South Carolina has been tough as a home underdog. Since 2014, they are 3-2 ATS in that span and have already covered at home against Texas A&M and nearly covered against Georgia if not for a fluke kickoff return touchdown (and an SEC conspiracy to move the game to Sunday when the atmosphere would be less raucous -- I am not even kidding, people I know who are otherwise intelligent folks believe this). Tennessee has won three straight in this series, but they have beaten South Carolina by more than a touchdown just once in the last decade. Take the Gamecocks to keep this one close, but 6-6 is probably still a pipe dream.

UNLV -3 San Jose State
This seemingly inconsequential Mountain West matchup occurring after most (even hardcore) college football fans have gone to bed seems to be between a pair of teams heading in opposite directions. San Jose State began the Ron Caragher era with a 6-6 record in 2013, but have failed to post a winning record since (despite a bowl win last season). Standing 2-6 this season, the Spartans are extreme longshots to win out and qualify for a bowl. Meanwhile, UNLV has already matched last season's win total in their second under Tony Sanchez and could conceivably get to a bowl game. Even if they don't manage a postseason invite, UNLV has set up a solid foundation for success in the future. After a 1-3 non-conference start, the Rebels handed the reigns to freshman quarterback Dalton Sneed. Sneed has been very hit or miss, completing just 47% of his passes, but averaging a healthy 7.7 yards per pass attempt. He has also been effective on the ground, rushing for over 300 yards including this spectacular run against Fresno State. The best defense in the conference, San Diego State, was able to hold the Rebels down, but in their other three league games, UNLV has averaged over 36 points per game and 6.77 yards per play. The bottom quartile of the Mountain West (Fresno State, Nevada, and San Jose State) is very bad. UNLV is not in the upper-echelon of Mountain West teams (yet), but they are firmly middle class and should be able to win by at least a touchdown even on the road against San Jose State.

Arizona +6 Stanford
Something very odd is happening in Palo Alto. The Stanford Cardinal have forgotten how to score points. Since beating Southern Cal 27-10 back on September 17th, Stanford has played five games. In those five games, they have scored a grand total of four...yes, four offensive touchdowns. For a team with Stanford's recent pedigree, that is a historic level of ineptitude. Stanford has somehow managed to win two of those five games thanks to a solid defense. Now Stanford hits the road to take on an Arizona team in danger of failing to qualify for a bowl game for the first time under Rich Rodriguez. The Wildcats are 2-5 and need to win four of their final five games to qualify for their fifth consecutive bowl game. Arizona has yet to win a conference game and has serious defensive issues, as they have allowed 41 points per game and 6.9 yards per play to Pac-12 opponents. Interestingly, the two teams that played in the Pac-12 Championship Game in 2014, Arizona and Oregon, currently rank last and second to last in defensive yards per play in the Pac-12. In other words, if Stanford cannot score here, they at least have another chance in two weeks. :) Arizona is coming off a bye and is in desperate need of win. In addition, the Wildcats are 6-2 ATS as a home underdog under Rodriguez with four outright wins. I don't know that they will be able to win this game outright, but they should be able to keep it close against a struggling offense.

The Magnificent Seven: Week VIII

We got back on track in a big way last week, posting a 6-1 mark. Be wary of some regression to the mean this week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 6-1
Overall: 26-20-3

North Texas +18 Army
After combining for a 3-21 mark in 2015, which included a pair of losses to FCS teams, the colorful Mean Green and Black Knights have combined for a 7-5 record in 2016 and if things break right, both could end up in bowl games. Army has enjoyed a somewhat unique season as they opened the 2016 campaign with a win against Temple as a double-digit underdog. The Black Knights won their next two games against Conference USA dumpster fires Rice and UTEP by a combined 69 points! Then they traveled to their closest FBS opponent, Buffalo, and lost as a double-digit favorite. They dropped their next game to Duke, but pulled out of their tailspin by crushing an FCS school last week. With four wins through the first half of the season, Army is well positioned to finish with a winning record and potentially end their 100 year or so drought against Navy. Meanwhile, North Texas has quietly jumped out to a 3-3 record after a dismal 1-11 season in 2015. Not much was expected of the Mean Green in the preseason under first year head coach Seth Littrell. The offense is not a great deal different than it was last season, but the defense has been much better. After finishing second to last in Conference USA last season in yards allowed per play, the Mean Green are currently second in the conference in that category. With Army running the option, this game will feature a running clock and fewer possessions than your standard college football game. Couple that with defensive improvement in Denton and a bye week to prepare for Army, and North Texas is an easy pick here.

Kansas +24 Oklahoma State
Since firing Mark Mangino, Kansas has been bad. Real bad. The Jayhawks have won just three conference games since firing the big man and current head coach David Beaty has yet to beat an FBS team. That being said, Kansas has played some close games at home, particularly against Oklahoma State and TCU. Since the Big 12 added TCU and West Virginia prior to the 2012 season, Kansas has played 19 home games. Five of those games have come against Oklahoma State and TCU. Kansas has lost those games by an average of 6.4 points per game, with only one loss coming by more than a single score. In their other 14 home games, Kansas has won two, but their average scoring margin even including those wins is -24.7 points per game. For whatever reason, the Cowboys and Horned Frogs struggle in Lawrence. Plus, since nearly playing for the national title in 2011, Oklahoma State is just 1-7 Against the Spread (ATS) as a double-digit road favorite. I won't call for a monumental Kansas win, but they should keep this one closer than expected.

Indiana +2 Northwestern
Northwestern has rebounded from a pair of early defeats to get back into bowl if not division contention (the Wildcats did beat Iowa, but with Ohio State and Wisconsin left on the schedule, a division title is probably a pipe dream). In their past two games, Northwestern beat both of last year's Big 10 Championship Game participants on the road. In those two games, the Wildcats have put up 92 points despite averaging under six yards per play in both contests. Special teams have helped, with the Wildcats starting a drive on the five-yard line against Iowa thanks to a punt return and returning a kickoff for a touchdown against Michigan State. With offensive numbers like that, the Wildcats have been a little fluky in scoring so many points. The Wildcats also allowed over seven yards per play to a Michigan State team that had struggled moving the ball outside of their game with Notre Dame. Now the Wildcats host a fellow 3-3 team in the Indiana Hoosiers who are looking to qualify for their second straight bowl for the first time since Bill Mallory was leading the team in the early 90's. Indiana has played well despite their 3-3 mark, losing one-score games to Wake Forest and Nebraska and giving Ohio State a decent game in The Horseshoe. Indiana is surprisingly decent on defense this season. After ranking twelfth in the Big 10 in each of Kevin Wilson's first five seasons in charge (sometimes that would be last in the league and other times it was good enough for third to last), with Tom Allen coordinating the defense, the Hooisers are currently seventh in that category (and that is not adjusted for schedule which includes powerful offenses at Nebraska and Ohio State). Northwestern is probably a little overvalued following their win against a weak Michigan State team. Take the Hoosiers to cover and win outright here.

Colorado +2.5 Stanford
After winning just a pair of conference games in his first three seasons in Boulder, Mike MacIntyre has positioned the Buffaloes to be contenders in the Pac-12 South. Colorado has three league wins and just one defeat, and after this game three of their final four contests come in the thin air of home. Southern Cal already has two conference losses and UCLA has three, so if the Buffaloes can pull out a win here, they would arguably be the division favorite over the final month of the regular season! The transitive property would make you think Stanford is an easy play here. The Cardinal scored a relatively easy win against Southern Cal in the season's third week and the Trojans beat Colorado two weeks ago. However, since that win against the Trojans, Stanford has struggled putting points on the board. In their next four games, of which they lost two, the Cardinal have averaged just over 15 points per game while averaging under five yards per play and scoring just four offensive touchdowns. Some of that has to do with the absence of running back Christian McCaffrey, but the quarterback play has been subpar. Regardless of the venue, Stanford will need to score points to beat Colorado as the Buffaloes have topped 40 points five times in seven games. I understand why Stanford is favored, but Colorado is a great play here and can easily leave with an outright road win.

Memphis -2.5 Navy
Fans of the Houston Cougars will probably be keeping a close eye on this game as Houston needs the Midshipmen to lose a pair of games in order to get to the American Championship Game. They will also have an opportunity to scout a future opponent and another potential contender in the West division. Memphis is unbeaten in conference play with victories against Temple and Tulane and the Tigers actually host Houston on Black Friday. Navy is probably a little overvalued here after their win against Houston two weeks ago. The Midshipmen have not had time to lose any luster from that win thanks to their game scheduled for last weekend being postponed. Prior to beating Houston, Navy struggled in putting away Connecticut and Tulane before dropping a two-score game to Air Force. Navy is due for a letdown and with Memphis currently favored by under a field goal, they are a good play here.

Louisiana-Monroe +17 New Mexico
This large spread marks the third time this season that New Mexico has been favored by double-digits. For a team that was mired in futility for nearly a decade, that is pretty remarkable. Consider that between the time Mike Locksley took over the team in 2009 and the end of the 2015 season, New Mexico was favored by double-digits just three times. Perhaps not coincidentally, all of those games were against in-state rival New Mexico State, one of the nation's worst FBS programs. Under Bob Davie, New Mexico is much improved and has a real chance at appearing in their second consecutive bowl game. However, they are still not able to consistently stop anyone and that is a real problem when you are giving more than two touchdowns. The Lobos have allowed over seven yards per play to their last three opponents, and have allowed at least 32 points to every FBS opponent they have faced this season. Louisiana-Monroe has already matched their win total from last season under first year coach Matt Viator and have already covered twice as a huge underdog. New Mexico should win, but both teams will score and Louisiana-Monroe should score enough to cover.

Fresno State +16 Utah State
I mentioned this in my handicapping of Utah State two weeks ago, but these are not the Aggies of 2012-2013. Utah State has won just two of their last eight conference games and has averaged just 19 points per game against FBS opponents this season. Now, their opponent in this game, Fresno State, is a bad team, and Tim DeRuyter is probably in danger of losing his job, particularly if the Bulldogs finish 1-11 or 2-10, but this is too large a number for a bad favorite to cover.

Cinderella in Coal Country?

With the college football season halfway over (frowny face emoji), conventional wisdom has the four participants in the college football playoff as Alabama (or Texas A&M if they manage to win the SEC), Clemson, Washington, and the winner of the Michigan/Ohio State game. Ah, but college football is usually not so predictable. In the first two editions of the College Football Playoff, here are where the eventual participants ranked through seven weeks of play.

As you can see, the top ten of the AP Poll is a good place to start looking, but even in that elite company, only a single team (Florida State) ranked within the top four halfway through the season. Plus, each season has seen a 'Cinderella' of sorts emerge with Ohio State and Oklahoma ranking in the teens at the halfway point of their respective seasons. So who could crash the fancy soiree in 2016? Let's consider a team from a conference that was left for dead after the opening weeks of the college football season.

The Big 12, the most unstable of the Power Five conferences, did not have a good start to the 2016 season. After three weeks, league favorite Oklahoma had dropped non-conference games to Houston and Ohio State. Former mid-major and darkhorse contender TCU had dropped a home game to Arkansas. Oklahoma State, a team enjoying the best multi-season run in school history had lost at home to a MAC school, in a most improbable way. Texas, after opening the season with what Longhorn faithful felt was a program defining win over Notre Dame, lost on the road to a mediocre Pac-12 team. Need I go on? Kansas State lost to Stanford, Texas Tech lost to Arizona State, Iowa State lost to an FCS school, and Kansas, well, was Kansas. Only Baylor, a team that fired their coach in the offseason and hemorrhaged recruits left and right in the aftermath and West Virginia, a team that entered the conference with much aplomb, but never managed better than a 5-4 league mark made it to October unscathed. Pundits, particularly dumb jock archetype Jason Sehorn (statistics are for losers) wrote the Big 12 off and have ignored the conference in their coverage of potential playoff teams. However, if you are looking for a longshot candidate for the College Football Playoff, allow me to introduce you to West Virginia. 

West Virginia is coached by Dana Holgorsen, a disciple of the Hal Mumme/Mike Leach Air Raid school of coaching. In his first season as head coach, the Mountaineers won the Big East and laid waste to Clemson in the Orange Bowl, setting up great expectations for their foray into the Big 12. However, the Mountaineers neglected to bring a defense to their new conference. Here are West Virginia's rankings in Yards per Play Allowed (YPA) and Touchdowns Allowed (TDA) in Big 12 play through their first four seasons. 

Whether you look at efficiency (yards allowed per play) or allowing drives to finish (touchdowns allowed) West Virginia was bad in their first two seasons as they were either second to last or third to last in both categories. Something changed in 2013 though. The Mountaineers realized if you play a little defense in the Big 12, you can win games. So they made perhaps the most underrated coordinator hire in the country when they tabbed their safety coach, Tony Gibson to lead the defense. The results have been fantastic. The Mountaineers went from the bottom of the conference to the top in terms of defensive acumen and their great play has continued in 2016. The Mountaineers just went to Lubbock, Texas and held Texas Tech to 17 points. That is the lowest point total for the Red Raiders in a home game in nearly two years!

So we know West Virginia is probably better than most people think, but can they win out? The Mountaineers have only played five games, meaning they have seven remaining, so it is more likely to not happen, but here are a few reasons why it can. 

West Virginia has a unique homefield advantage...at least relative to their Big 12 peers. I'm not talking about couch burning, I'm talking about distance and isolation. The rest of the Big 12 either plays in Texas or flyover states. West Virginia is located all by itself in the eastern part of the United States. The Mountaineers get Baylor, Oklahoma, and TCU at home this season. Remember, two seasons ago, West Virginia kept Baylor out of the playoff by beating them in Morgantown. That same season, TCU needed a late field goal to escape Morgantown with a win. This year's version of both teams are not as good as those 2014 teams. In addition, both of Oklahoma's trips east have resulted in close Sooner wins. Now take a look at their remaining road schedule. The Mountaineers go to Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Texas. Any road trip, especially in conference play is dicey, but with the exception of replacing Texas with Kansas, West Virginia could not have asked for a better road slate.

Now, perhaps the more important question. If West Virginia wins out, do they deserve a spot in the playoff? The Mountaineers did challenge themselves in non-conference play, in hosting Missouri and playing a semi-home game against BYU. Now, Missouri may not qualify for a bowl, but I think the Mountaineers deserve a little credit for playing an SEC team versus a member of the Sun Belt. And the BYU win will probably end up looking pretty good. Even if the Cougars lose to Boise State this week, they will probably end up 8-4. The SEC champion, barring a gigantic upset by the eventual east winner in the championship game is probably in the playoff, but every ACC team save Clemson already has a loss and the Tigers have been playing with fire as of late. The Michigan/Ohio State winner is probably in, but Washington has several tough games left on the schedule (@Utah, Southern Cal, @Washington State), not to mention the Pac-12 Championship Game. Barring a great deal of chaos, West Virginia probably has to win out to make the playoff, but if they do, I think they get in. I don't know if the Big 12 schedule makers are clairvoyant, but putting Baylor @ West Virginia on Championship Saturday may turn out to be one of the best moves they ever made.  

The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

We have put together a nice little two week run. A 4-3 mark gets us above .500 on the year. Lets see if we can post another solid week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 20-19-3

Mississippi State +7.5 BYU
For the second time in three weeks, BYU will host a Friday night game. Hopefully, Mack Brown won't have to leave before the game is over this time. I'll say this for BYU, they have played mostly entertaining and exciting games. Prior to their most recent victory against Michigan State, their first five games were all decided by three points or less. They ranged from defensive struggles to offensive shootouts and occasionally featured two point conversion attempts. After this game, BYU travels to Boise State, but then closes with a relatively easy stretch of Cincinnati, Southern Utah, Massachusetts, and Utah State , so they should get to at least seven wins after a rough 1-3 start. First things first though: Can they beat an SEC team for the first time since 2011? If BYU is going to win this game, it will be with the running game. Running back Jamaal Williams and quarterback Taysom Hill have combined for over 1100 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. Mississippi State has been decent against the run thus far, but BYU should be able to move the ball and score some points. However, asking them to win by more than a touchdown is a little much. BYU is a little overvalued after their win against Michigan State (who by the way is probably not very good this year) while Mississippi State is undervalued after their home loss to Auburn (who is probably pretty good this year). BYU will be motivated to take down an SEC team, but Mississippi State should be motivated too. The Bulldogs have four ranked teams left on their schedule, so they probably need this game to become bowl eligible for the seventh consecutive year.

NC State +17.5 Clemson
Most prognosticators have identified Clemson's road trip to Tallahassee as their last remaining test until at least the ACC Championship Game (obviously ignoring their precarious trip to Winston-Salem). However, NC State appears to have emerged as a legitimate threat to at least offer Clemson some semblance of a challenge. After stubbing their toe against East Carolina, the Wolfpack have reeled off three consecutive wins with quarterback Ryan Finley emerging as a perhaps the Pack's best quarterback since Russell Wilson. Finley has yet to throw an interception and has completed nearly 70% of his passes. Granted, Clemson represents by far the toughest defense he has faced, but I think he and the Wolfpack will be able to move the ball against the Tigers. Clemson will not have the benefit of a nationally televised prime time setting they enjoyed against Louisville. I think the Tigers could come out a little flat and NC State is probably a little undervalued after their slog against Notre Dame last week.

North Carolina +9 Miami
This line seems like a huge overreaction to North Carolina's performance last week. The Tar Heels and Hokies played in the remnants of Hurricane Matthew and North Carolina posted their worst offensive showing under Larry Fedora, in failing to find the end zone. I would take the numbers and statistics from that game, both offensive and defensive, and throw them out the window. Barring another weather event, North Carolina should be able to move the ball against Miami. Plus, the Hurricanes come into this game in a huge letdown spot. Last week, they lost their seventh consecutive game to their bitter in-state rivals in gut-wrenching fashion. Plus, Miami's schedule has been quite soft up to this point. They have posted great numbers through the first half of the season, but against the two Power 5 teams they have played, they needed two defensive scores to provide the winning margin against Georgia Tech and managed just two offensive touchdowns against a Florida State team that was allowing over 40 points per game to FBS teams. I think North Carolina provides great value here and could even win outright.

Oregon State +9 Utah
Last week, I was set on fading the Utes as a big home favorite and despite the fact that it didn't work out, I am all set to do the same this week as they travel to Corvallis. Outside of the smoldering crater in Eugene, Utah has the worst defense in the Pac-12, allowing all three conference opponents (Arizona, Cal, and Southern Cal) to average north of seven yards per play against them. The Utes have been winning games with timely offense and a great punter. That would seem to be an untenable long term strategy, especially on the road at an improving Oregon State team. The Beavers won their first conference game under Gary Anderson last week when they knocked off Cal in overtime. After playing the role of sieve on defense last season, the Beavers have shown flashes on that side of the ball this season. They did allow 47 points at Colorado, but they held both Cal and Minnesota under five yards per play. Utah is just 3-7 Against the Spread (ATS) as a road favorite since joining the Pac-12, and I think they are ill-equipped to dominate Oregon State on the road.

New Mexico State +6 Idaho
Call it the Relegation Bowl if you will. The Sun Belt, yes, the Sun Belt, has decided they are too good for both of these teams and will be giving them das boot following the 2017 football season. Idaho has decided to drop down to FCS while New Mexico State will tough it out as an FBS independent. Godspeed Aggies. Despite their poor histories, the winner of this game will actually have an outside shot at bowl eligibility. If Idaho wins, they would need to beat two more teams (looking at you Georgia State and Texas State) to get to six wins while New Mexico State would need three additional wins to get to six. Anyway, on to handicapping this game, which I can't believe College GameDay is not at. Idaho has won three games with each victory coming by exactly three points. However, in their five games against FBS opponents, the Vandals have allowed at least six yards per play. Conversely, they have not averaged more than six yards per play against any FBS opponent. New Mexico State has been solid offensively thus far, averaging 5.5 yards per play against their five FBS opponents. The Aggies have been competitive in every game save for their turnover debacle at Troy (who by the way may win the Sun Belt). This line is about a field goal too high. Take the Aggies to cover and potentially win outright.

San Jose State -1.5 Nevada
So here's the deal: San Jose State is 1-5 and has not beaten an FBS team this season. How in the heck are they favored here? For starters, three of their five losses have been on the road. Secondly, one of their home losses came to a ranked team from the Pac-12 (Utah). Thirdly, the Spartans have a -8 turnover margin in their five FBS games. Turnovers are not totally random, like say coin flips or roulette spins, but there is a high degree of randomness inherent in them. The Spartans are unlikely to continue performing as poorly in committing and failing to gain turnovers the rest of the season. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, their opponent, Nevada, is not very good. While the Wolfpack are 3-3 on the year, their wins have all come at home against teams that have combined for just a single FBS win. The Wolfpack have failed to average more than six yards per play against any FBS opponent (including just 5.36 against what we now know is a bad Notre Dame defense). The Wolfpack have also allowed at least six yards per play to every FBS opponent except Fresno State (to whom they allowed 5.95). The Wolfpack are very fortunate to be 3-3 and this line should probably be more than a field goal. If San Jose State wins, they are very likely to cover, and I think they have a great shot at winning here.

UCLA +7 Washington State
This line has steadily climbed all week with the status of UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen in doubt. Even if Rosen does not play, I think the Bruins are a good bet to keep this one close. They own the best defense in the Pac-12 and have yet to surrender more than 24 points to any team in regulation. Washington State has never been more overvalued than they are now, coming off a dismantling of Stanford on the road. Remember the Cougars have played better as of late, but they did drop a home game to an FCS opponent a little more than a month ago. UCLA will be the more desperate team as they already have two conference defeats and another would put them squarely behind the 8-ball in the Pac-12 South race.

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

Last week was our first winning week in a month. It could have been even better if not for a frontdoor push from Pitt. Lets see if we can post another solid week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 4-2-1
Overall: 16-16-3

Texas-San Antonio +17 Southern Miss
Southern Miss has followed up their breakthrough 2015 season with a solid campaign thus far. The Golden Eagles are 4-1 with a victory over Kentucky from the SEC. However, if you look at the rest of their wins, there is not a lot of heft on their resume. Besides Kentucky, Southern Miss has beaten an FCS team and a pair of conference opponents (Rice and UTEP) that have combined for a 1-9 record. The Roadrunners are probably a little better than those two teams, particularly at home, where they have already given Arizona State a significant challenge. The Roadrunners have had a week off to prepare for Southern Miss and should be able to keep this game within three scores.

Georgia Tech +7 Pittsburgh
No one is happier to see Pittsburgh on the schedule than Georgia Tech and Paul Johnson. After facing a pair of good to great defenses in back-to-back home games, the Yellow Jackets should get their option attack rolling against a Pittsburgh team that has serious issues defensively. While the Panthers are 3-2 in the early going, they have allowed 37 points per game to FBS foes and over 40 points per game to Power 5 opponents. On the surface, Pitt's run defense looks solid as they have allowed just 2.36 yards per rush. However, once we remove their 19 sacks and the resulting lost yardage, the Panthers have actually allowed 4.05 yards per rush. That is hardly terrible, but Pitt will not be nearly as stout as the Clemson unit Georgia Tech faced two weeks ago. Of course, the reason Pitt is 3-2 despite the defensive struggles is because their offense has been pretty potent. The Panthers have scored at least 36 points against each of their FBS opponents and have averaged under six yards per play just once. Georgia Tech has been hot or miss thus far on defense, so Pitt will be able to move the ball and score points against them. However, keep this in mind. Elite defense can shutdown the triple option offense (see Clemson two weeks ago), but this type of attack can absolutely shred an undisciplined unit. From 2012-2015, against defenses that finished in the top 25 nationally in terms of yards per play allowed, Georgia Tech scored 20.75 points per game. Against all other defenses, they averaged 34.89 points per game. Barring a scheduling snafu where they only play Kent State the rest of the way, Pitt will not finish in the top 25 defensively. There may not be as much scoring if Georgia Tech is able to control the clock and limit possessions, but this will be an offensive showcase and I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia Tech not only covers, but emerges victorious.

Wyoming +10.5 Air Force
I know its dangerous to project things, particularly in early October, but take a gander at Air Force's schedule. I'll wait. The Falcons have four road games in their next seven and a neutral site game with New Mexico, but Air Force will probably be favored in each game. With a little luck, they could enter the final weekend of the regular season undefeated! That would make their game with Boise State huge, not just in terms of Mountain Division supremacy, but in terms of a potential New Year's Six Bowl bid. Just something to keep in mind. First things first though, the Falcons will have to get by a Wyoming team looking to qualify for a bowl game in Craig Bohl's third season. The Cowboys are unbeaten thus far at home, including an opening weekend win as a double-digit underdog. Running back Brian Hill is well on his way to another 1000-yard season and he is already the leading rusher in school history. His performance will go a long way toward determining if Wyoming can be competitive here. The Falcons have held each of their first four opponents under 100 yards rushing and are allowing just 1.84 yards per carry. If we remove the sacks they have accumulated, the Falcons are still allowing just over three yards per rush. Air Force should win, but asking them to win by double-digits on the road against a quality opponent is too much.

Buffalo +1.5 Kent State
Someone is going to have to explain this line to me. Looking at the schedule for the upcoming weekend, I figured Buffalo would be a small favorite against Kent as neither of these teams are very good and the Bulls are hosting the game. Both these teams have just a single win and they have both dropped games to FCS opponents. Buffalo at least has the excuse of being in the second year of a rebuild under Lance Leipold while Kent State is in their fourth year of poor play under Paul Haynes. The Golden Flashes have been road favorites just once under Haynes, and while they did win and cover in that game, they have just three total road wins under Haynes. Kent State should not be favored on the road against anyone. Take Buffalo to win here.

Texas State +10 Georgia State
After qualifying for their first ever bowl game last season, Georgia State lost the best quarterback in (their brief) school history when Nick Arbuckle exhausted his eligibility. Their offense has taken a significant downturn without Arbuckle under center. The Panthers have scored more than 20 points just once through their first four games and are averaging just 5.4 yards per pass. Yet somehow, they are favored by double digits in this game. To be fair, Texas State does not appear to be a threat to win the Sun Belt this season, but at least their poor scoring margin (outscored by 67 points through four games), is due in part to games against Arkansas and Houston. The Bobcats also beat Ohio, a potential division champion and probably bowl team, on the road. Georgia State has been favored three times at home in their short history. They have covered only once and have lost two of those games outright. This spread represents the largest margin by which they have ever been favored. Take Texas State to keep this one close.

Colorado State +6 Utah State
Utah State appears to be favored in this game on reputation alone. Just a few short years ago, in 2012, Utah State finished the year ranked 16th in the final poll. Their lone losses that season came by two points at Wisconsin and three points at BYU. Their coach left for Wisconsin following the arguably the best year in school history. The 2013 team was still strong, losing one score games on the road at Utah, Southern Cal, and Fresno State. However, since 2014, the Aggies have gone from an elite Mountain West team to a middling Mountain West bowl team. They are just 5-6 in their last eleven conference games and have lost eight of their last nine road games, including three losses as a favorite. This line should be closer to a pick 'em as Colorado State is a little undervalued after their disappointing home loss to Wyoming last week. Look for the Rams to keep this one close and potentially even their record at 3-3.

Arizona +10.5 Utah
Standing at 2-3, and with three ranked teams, including Utah on the schedule, Arizona is in danger of missing out on a bowl game just two seasons after playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The most realistic path to a bowl game involves pulling at least three upsets over their next five games and then winning their last two against Oregon State and Arizona State (the Wildcats could be favored in both games). Can they start by beating Utah in Salt Lake City? I think this game will be closer than the odds makers might have you believe. Utah, despite standing 1-1 in the Pac-12 and better goal-line execution from 2-0, has not played well defensively against Southern Cal and Cal. The Trojans and Bears both averaged north of seven yards per play against the Utes. Conversely, the Utes averaged less than six yards per play against both, including less than five yards per play against a Cal defense that does not exactly draw comparisons to the '85 Bears. Also, consider that Arizona is 4-1 against Utah since the Utes joined the Pac-12, including two wins in Salt Lake City. Finally, Utah is 2-7 ATS as a double-digit home favorite since joining the Pac-12. Utah is not built to blow teams out. This will be a touchdown game that is decided in the fourth quarter.