The Magnificent Seven: Week X

Somehow we broke through and posted another winning week. Can we make it three in a row and start November off strong? Home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 34-29

UTSA +7 Memphis

As someone currently holding a Memphis under 9.5 regular season wins ticket, I can tell you the Tigers are going to wind up being one of the worst ten win teams I have ever seen. And God forbid they beat Tulane in their regular season finale and we are forced to consider them as a potential entrant in the expanded College Football Playoff. What has impressed you most about the Tigers this season? Was it beating the worst Florida State team in a generation by eight? Scoring 21 points against South Florida and their backup quarterback? Their track meet victory against North Texas? Their comeback win at home against Charlotte? When the smoke clears, the Tigers will wind up having beaten exactly one team (South Florida maybe) that participates in a bowl game. They will have done this despite playing in the strongest Group of Five conference and facing two defending conference champions (Florida State and Troy) in the non-con. Ryan Silverfield must have made a Gerry Faustian bargain to save his job. While the Tigers will probably escape San Antonio with a win, a cover is another story. Under Silverfield, the Tigers have torched money as a favorite. As a home favorite, they are 4-14-1 ATS. They are slightly better as a road favorite, going 5-8 ATS. Despite their ATS struggles, the Tigers don't actually lose these games though. As a home favorite, they are 16-3 straight up and as a road favorite, they are 9-4 straight up. I expect more of the same here in a place where UTSA is rarely an underdog. The Roadrunners have been underdogs just five other times since Jeff Traylor arrived in 2020. They are 4-1 ATS in those games, and have not been a home underdog since the 2022 season opener. UTSA just coughed up a game against Tulsa where they lead by 28 points at halftime, but I expect a strong effort as they return to the Alamodome for a three-game home stand. UTSA also does a great job of shutting down the run, permitting under three yards per carry on the season. They should force Memphis into multiple third and longs and make quarterback Seth Henigan beat them with his arm. Roc Taylor will probably make an incredible play at a crucial moment and the Tigers will escape, but they won't cover this number. 

Tulsa +3 UAB

I don't think this game will be must see TV for folks who are not alumni of either school. The Golden Hurricane and Blazers are both led by second year head coaches (Kevin Wilson and Trent Dilfer respectively) who are a combined 12-27 at their posts. Tulsa has at least beaten some FBS teams this season. UAB is on a seven game skid against teams from the highest division of college football since beating Temple in last season's penultimate game. Both teams will most likely be led by backup quarterbacks in this game. UAB quarterback Jacob Zeno has been injured off and on for much of the season forcing the Blazers to turn to likely pedophile Jalen Kitna. Kitna and Zeno have been equally bad. Meanwhile, Tulsa will likely start Cooper Legas after he led a spirited comeback against UTSA last week. Legas has tossed nearly as many touchdown passes (6) in 48 pass attempts as former starter Kirk Francis has in 212 (7). Legas is an experienced quarterback who was competent at Utah State, so it is unclear why it took a massive halftime deficit before he was given an opportunity to play. Anyway, I think Legas starts, and while Tulsa has not been good this season, UAB is a dead team walking. Trent Dilfer will be fired at the end of the season, if not before, and the Blazers will hope everyone forgets this idiotic hire. I guess the oddsmakers had to make one team the favorite in this game, but it should not be the full three. Take the Golden Hurricane in this spot as they shovel some dirt on Dilfer. 

North Carolina -2.5 Florida State

This bet gives me a little trepidation as Mack Brown does not have a great history leading teams from Chapel Hill down to Tallahassee. In a different era, Brown took quality Tar Heel teams down to face the class of the ACC in 1992, 1994, and 1996 and left with double digit losses each time. In his second tenure, he took a top five North Carolina team to Tallahassee to face a rebuilding Florida State in the Covid season laying double digits and also left with a defeat. Collectively, the Tar Heels have been terrible as road favorites since Brown returned in 2019, posting a 4-12-1 ATS record. So why am I trying to catch the falling knife with the Tar Heels this week? Have you seen Florida State this season? Their offense is among the worst at the power conference level. The Seminoles have scored 21, 13, 12, 14, 16, 13, 16, and 14 points in their eight games this season. They have not busted a Blackjack hand the entire year! And what do they have to play for at 1-7 coming off a loss to their in-state rival? North Carolina on the other hand, seemed rejuvenated after their bye, dominating Virginia and accumulating an absurd ten sacks! This bet will probably blow up in my face, but with the number less than three, the Tar Heels are the play. 

Washington +2.5 Southern Cal

When he left Oklahoma at the end of the 2021 regular season, Lincoln Riley caused both the Sooners and Trojans to experience mutual assured destruction. Both teams have had one good year since (2022 for the Trojans and 2023 for the Sooners), but the other two have been mediocre for both by historical standards. Oklahoma finished 6-6 in the 2022 regular season and are on pace to finish with a similar record this year. At 4-4, they have a game remaining with Maine, but close the year against three teams currently ranked in the AP Poll (Alabama, Missouri, and LSU). Southern Cal finished 7-5 in the regular season last year (after a 6-0 start) and at 4-4, they appear headed for another 6-6 or 7-5 finish. And to sniff 7-5, the Trojans have to win this game. Despite playing in the same conference, this is just the fifth meeting between these two teams in the past ten years. For what its worth, Washington has won three of the previous four, sweeping both games in Los Angeles (2015 and 2023) and splitting the games in Seattle (2016 and 2019). The Huskies are also 4-4, but have a much better statistical profile than the Trojans. Washington has outgained Big 10 foes by nearly a yard and a half per play (6.02 to 4.55) compared to less than half a yard per play for Southern Cal (6.16 to 5.78). But the Huskies have not done the little things. They have struggled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on less than half (10 of 22) their red zone possessions. They have also struggled kicking field goals, converting on just over 60% of their attempts (11 of 18). The Huskies are probably paying the football gods back for their fantastic good fortune last season (perfect 8-0 in one possession games) on their way to the national championship game. Despite their struggles this season, I think this is a good spot for Washington. The Huskies have won 18 consecutive home games (last loss was the regular season finale in 2021) and Southern Cal has been horrendous as a road favorite under Lincoln Riley. The Trojans are just 2-9 ATS with five outright losses and have failed to cover the past five times they have been road favorites. Dating back to his time at Oklahoma, Riley's teams are 8-20-1 ATS as road favorites. Back the Huskies at home as they also need this game to have any shot at the postseason with road trips to Penn State and Oregon remaining on the schedule. 

Texas A&M -2 South Carolina

When you make picks against the spread, you have to be prepared to look foolish and I am ready to do this just that. If I told you an SEC team was unbeaten in conference play in November and was laying less than a field goal on the road against a solid team, but one with limited offensive capabilities, you would probably want to back them, right? If I also told you that same team had dominated this series, wouldn't that make you want to play them even more? Since joining the SEC, Texas A&M is 9-1 against South Carolina. They are just 5-5 ATS, but that is partially because they have been favored by at least a touchdown in seven of those ten games. The Aggies lost their most recent trip to Columbia in 2022, but this version is better coached and in contention for an SEC title. Plus, while South Carolina is off a bye, Texas A&M is staring a bye in the face after this game. They can give maximum effort and attempt to improve to 6-0 in the SEC before enjoying a bye and a home game with New Mexico State before SEC play resumes in late November. South Carolina has been mediocre as a home underdog under Shane Beamer, posting a 5-5 ATS mark (1-1 this season). The Gamecocks may also be overvalued by the betting market after their last game. The Gamecocks scored two defensive touchdowns early in Norman and were never in danger against the offensively challenged Sooners. South Carolina has one of the better defenses in the SEC (third in yards allowed per play in conference games), but their offense is also one of the worst. The Gamecocks ripped off several big plays against LSU (6.52 yards per play), but in their other four SEC games, they have combined to average just 4.50 yards per play. The market has not reacted to Texas A&M like they are an unbeaten (in conference) SEC team. If they were laying a touchdown, South Carolina would be the play. But with this spread under a field goal, you have to back the Aggies. 

Pittsburgh +7.5 SMU

Turnovers were the stories for the Panthers and the Mustangs in their most recent games. Pitt forced five Syracuse turnovers, returning three interceptions for touchdowns in an easy win on Thursday night. Meanwhile, SMU turned the ball over six times against Duke, but escaped thanks to a blocked field goal at the end of regulation and a failed two points conversion by the Blue Devils. The victories set up a pretty big game in the ACC. The Panthers and Mustangs are both 4-0 in the ACC and ranked in the top twenty of the latest AP Poll. Pitt is unbeaten overall and control their destiny in regards to the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff. SMU has one loss (to BYU), but despite their unbeaten conference record do not control their destiny in regards to the ACC Championship Game. There is still an outside possibility that Clemson, Miami, and SMU all finish with identical 8-0 league records (Pitt faces Clemson in two weeks, so that possibility does not exist for them). I'm not sure how the ACC would break that three-way tie. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but for some reason I feel like SMU would be the odd team out in that situation. As I mentioned, that is a remote possibility, but deserves to be mentioned as we enter the final month of the regular season. As for this game, these two teams seem like they are pretty evenly matched. Both offenses have been fantastic overall and SMU has been especially good on that side of the ball since their bye week. After struggling in early season games against Nevada and BYU (44 total points), the Mustangs have averaged 42 points per game over their last five. Pitt has averaged nearly 36 points per game against FBS opponents, and were only really stymied by Cal. The Panthers have played the more difficult schedule with five of their seven games coming against likely or potential bowl teams. SMU has played the strongest opponent (BYU), but they have also beaten up on Houston Baptist, Florida State, Nevada, and Stanford. That schedule strength makes me believe Pitt is a little better than their raw stats while SMU is a bit worse. In addition, Pitt has been great as a road underdog under Narduzzi. They are 17-13 ATS in the role, and that includes an 0-4 ATS mark for last season's team (the worst Pitt team since either Johnny Majors 2.0 or Walt Harris was on the sideline). Finally, while SMU is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite under Rhett Lashlee, those six covers have come against Florida State (this season), Louisiana Tech, Navy twice, North Texas, and Tulsa. I expect a tight game, so back the team catching a full touchdown. 

TCU +3 Baylor

The latest edition of The Revivalry kicks off Saturday night in Waco. TCU has dominated the series recently, winning 12 of the 16 contests this century. The Horned Frogs have dominated in both Fort Worth and Waco, posting identical 6-2 records in each venue. In the four games TCU lost, the margin has been two points, three points, three points, and six points (in overtime). Those four losses also came to very good Baylor teams. The 2011, 2013, and 2019 teams finished 13th in the final AP Poll and the 2014 team finished 7th. You'll notice the current incarnation of Baylor is 4-4 and unlikely to enjoy any national significance in 2024. However, they may do (or have already done) enough to save Dave Aranda's job. Aranda guided the Bears to a Big 12 title in 2021, but in his other four seasons in charge, Baylor is just 15-27 overall and 10-22 in Big 12 play. The Bears are also just 9-11 at home in Big 12 play under Aranda (4-11 outside of 2021). TCU has the stronger statistical profile, has the better history in this series, and is likely due for some turnover regression (forced only four all season). The fact that the Horned Frogs are 5-3 despite a -11 turnover margin indicates they are probably a bit better than their record and undervalued by the betting market. Take the Frogs and the points. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IX

We finally broke our month long losing skid. And it could have been a very special week if I didn't fade those service academies like a dummy. Home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 30-26

Boise State -3 UNLV

This could be the first of two between these Mountain West favorites. Despite each team entering with a loss, both have a good shot at reaching the College Football Playoff by winning here and then winning out. Boise State has dominated this series since joining the Mountain West. The Broncos are 6-0 straight up against the Rebels, with each victory coming by at least 17 points. Most of those wins came before UNLV hired Barry Odom and righted the ship, but even last year, the best Rebels team in a generation (or two) lost by 24 points at home (in the conference title game no less). UNLV is probably slightly better than they were last season, but this is a terrible spot for them. They have played three challenging games in a row, losing a heartbreaker at home to Syracuse, traveling to Utah State to play at elevation, and then traveling to Oregon State and winning a tight game. Meanwhile Boise State is off a bye and has had ample time to prepare for the UNLV Go Go Offense. I don't expect the Broncos to completely shut down the UNLV attack, but they do lead the nation in sacks and are third in tackles for loss. They should generate enough negative plays to prevent UNLV from marching up and down the field. And when the Broncos have the ball, the Rebels should have their hands full with Ashton Jeanty. The Boise State running back has nearly equaled last season's rushing total in just six games! He is averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground and nearly ten yards per carry! Take the Broncos laying just a field goal against a team they are used to dominating. 

Washington +6.5 Indiana

College GameDay is headed to Bloomington for the first time (on a Saturday) this week. The Hoosiers opened the 2017 season hosting Ohio State and got the weekday version of GameDay, but this is the real deal. Indiana is 7-0 and ranked thirteenth in the most recent edition of the AP Poll. This is their highest ranking in a non-Covid season since they rose to number eleven in 1987. Unfortunately, the Hoosiers will be playing without their starting quarterback in this game (and perhaps more) as Kurtis Rourke was injured in their beatdown of Nebraska last week. Rourke's injury two seasons ago sidetracked a potential conference title run at Ohio, and we'll see if a similar result befalls the Hoosiers. While Indiana is 7-0, reigning national runner-up Washington is just 4-3, losing tight games to Washington State and Rutgers and getting blown out in their most recent outing against Iowa. The Huskies have a good pass defense and should be able to contain Indiana's backup quarterback, Tayven Jackson. In six games last season Jackson was not particularly impressive. He has posted great numbers in very limited action this season, but the offense should be significantly downgraded for Rourke's injury. This is the peak of the market for Indiana. If Rourke were playing, I could understand this line being what it is (or perhaps a bit more), but with Jackson getting the start, Washington off a bye, and Indiana facing pressure as a home favorite with College GameDay in town, you have to back the Huskies. Just hope they don't have to kick too many field goals. 

Charlotte +18.5 Memphis

As I mentioned in the intro, I had a pretty good run last week except when I faded the service academies. While fading Navy, I simultaneously backed Charlotte and the 49ers were down 38 points roughly 20 minutes into the game. However, that big margin was almost entirely attributable to turnovers. The 49ers actually outgained Navy (363 to 288) and were pretty even with them on a per play basis (5.19 to 5.24), but five turnovers did them in. If the 49ers continue to be loose with the football, a Memphis cover will not be in doubt, but I expect a better showing. Maybe only four turnovers or perhaps three. In all seriousness though, turnovers are hard to handicap and one should probably go into games expecting a margin somewhere between plus or minus one when prospecting how a game will play out. While Charlotte was getting blasted by Navy, Memphis beat North Texas in a game where the two teams combined for nearly 100 points. It was good for the Tigers to get the win and stay in the AAC race, but it showed their defensive improvement in the previous two games (Middle Tennessee and South Florida) was a schedule induced mirage. Charlotte is not going to put up 44 points like North Texas did last week, but they should be able to score in the twenties. Memphis would then need to score in the high thirties to cover this number and I don't think they can. Plus, Memphis has been awful under Ryan Silverfield as a home favorite. The Tigers are just 4-13-1 ATS as a home favorite, including 3-9 ATS as a double digit home favorite. Charlotte is undervalued by the market after their poor showing last week and its only natural for Memphis to have a bit of a letdown after surviving North Texas. 

Stanford +2.5 Wake Forest

The Stanford rebuild is not going as fast as I expected. When the Cardinal hired Troy Taylor to replace the retiring David Shaw, I thought Stanford would be competing for a bowl bid at minimum in his second season. Taylor, a real Larry Coker doppelganger, guided Sacramento State to a 30-8 record and three FCS playoff appearances in three seasons before heading to Palo Alto. But Stanford is just 5-14 overall midway through his second season. And the Cardinal have a nasty habit of getting their teeth kicked in. Six of their nine losses last season came by double digits and four of their five losses this season have come by at least 24 points. But I think (or hope) this is the bottom of the market for Stanford. The Cardinal have dropped four in a row in non-competitive fashion, but three of those teams are currently ranked in the AP Poll (Clemson, Notre Dame, and SMU) and the fourth has snapped out of their early season funk (Virginia Tech). Against the mediocre teams on their schedule (TCU and Syracuse), the Cardinal have acquitted themselves well. They lost by a touchdown to TCU at home and beat Syracuse on the road on a last second field goal. Describing Wake Forest as mediocre would be charitable. The Demon Deacons have won two road games against FBS opponents this season (by a combined seven points), but they have a terrible track record under Dave Clawson laying points away from Winston-Salem. Against power conference opponents, they are just 2-7 ATS as a road favorite with five outright losses. Stanford's offensive struggles of late (38 total points in their four game skid) have been due to a porous offensive line. The Cardinal have allowed 25 sacks on the season (only three teams have allowed more). However, Wake Forest has one of the worst pass rushes in the country, generating just eight sacks on the year (124th nationally). Stanford has faced a brutal schedule over the past month so their value is depressed and they are playing at home against a bad favorite traveling across the country. Take the Cardinal to get their second ever ACC victory. 

Minnesota -4 Maryland

This seems like a pretty big hangover spot for Maryland. The Terps became the fourth Big 10 team this season to pull off a fourth quarter comeback and knock off Southern Cal last week. Maryland executed the controversial 'down by fourteen and go for two after scoring a touchdown' strategy (we need to shorten the name or come up with an acronym). The win moved Maryland to 4-3 on the season and kept their hopes for a fourth consecutive bowl game alive. Now they face a team that was in a similar position a few weeks ago. The Gophers became the second Big 10 team to pull off a fourth quarter comeback against Southern Cal and subsequently hit the road to face UCLA. The Gophers were shutout in the first half, but rallied to win in the final seconds. They are off a bye and return home hoping to also notch their fifth win of the season. Mike Locksley has had much better success at Maryland than I envisioned when he was hired, but he has struggled as a road underdog in Big 10 play. His teams are just 3-11 ATS as road underdogs in conference play and each of their covers has been as a double digit underdog. They have not covered tight road spreads in Big 10 play. In addition, while they are a respectable 8-15 straight up in Big 10 road games under Locksley, seven of those wins came with Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback. Without Tua's brother, they are just 1-5 in Big 10 road games with the victory coming against Rutgers in 2019. Rutgers was quite bad that season. Maryland is getting a little too much credit for beating a Southern Cal team that has not won in the Eastern time zone since Reconstruction (or something like that). Take the Gophers to cover this small number. 

Vanderbilt +19 Texas

I've said (or written) it several times on this blog. Vanderbilt is spiritually running the triple option. That is the perfect offense for a team that will be at a talent disadvantage in pretty much every conference game they play. And the tenants of betting for and against a triple option team have applied to Vanderbilt perfectly this season. Against FBS opponents, they are 4-0 ATS as an underdog (all as a double digit underdog), winning three of the games outright. And they are 0-2 ATS as a favorite. One of those games as a favorite was an outright loss at Georgia State. I didn't have the stones to back Ball State catching somewhere around 26 points against the Commodores last week because the Cardinals are so bad, but the cover was never in doubt. Vanderbilt was never in real danger of losing, but thanks to the running clock and limited possessions, they only won by ten points. Now they get Texas in the biggest home game in school history. Can they pull another massive upset as a home underdog and insert themselves into the SEC race? Winning the game outright will require a decent amount of luck (as did the victory against Alabama), but I expect Vanderbilt to be in this game for the duration. The Longhorns were the consensus number one team in the country last week after a masterful performance through their first six games. However, while that schedule was high on name recognition (Michigan and Oklahoma), it was light on heft. The Longhorns faced an elite team (or what qualifies as an elite team in 2024) and fell at home to Georgia. Of course, Vanderbilt is not in Georgia's class, but I will argue that Diego Pavia is the best quarterback Texas will have faced thus far in 2024. Pavia runs the Vanderbilt offense masterfully, mixing runs with timely passes to accumulate first downs and keep the clock running. His (and the other New Mexico State transplants) impact on the Vanderbilt program cannot be overstated. In Clark Lea's first three seasons, Vanderbilt was a double digit underdog 26 times. They were just 10-16 ATS with two outright wins. In 2024, the Commodores are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a double digit underdog, with three outright wins and a loss in overtime. Lets also not engage in a revisionist campaign on Steve Sarkisian's track record as a road favorite. His teams at Texas are just 6-5 ATS in the role (11-10 ATS if we include his time at Washington and Southern Cal) and 1-2 ATS as a double digit road favorite. Texas has not played a true road game since their trip to Ann Arbor in the second week of the season. I can't wait to see what the atmosphere is like in Nashville as Vanderbilt takes the field as a ranked team for the first time since 2008 (they finished ranked in 2012 and 2013, but never played a game as a ranked team). Until further notice always back Diego as a double digit underdog. 

San Jose State +5 Fresno State

These two California schools have been conference mates for the majority of the past fifty five years. Both were in the Pacific Coast Athletic Association from 1969 through 1987 and stayed with the league when it changed its name to the Big West in 1988. From that point on, Fresno State tried to stay one step ahead of the Spartans. The Bulldogs joined the WAC in 1992, while San Jose State stuck in out until the Big West died, eventually joining the WAC in 1996. Fresno State departed the WAC after the 2011 season and joined the Mountain West with San Jose State joining one season later in 2012. Now the Bulldogs, along with a few other Mountain West teams, are joining the newly constituted Pac-12 (or 10 or 8). If history is any guide though, San Jose State will join them within the next five years. But what does all that history have to do with this game? Well, despite the presence of new head coaches at both programs, these two teams are quite familiar with each other. It almost feels like an NFL division game. In those NFL division games, if the teams are pretty evenly matched, which these two appear to be, the oddsmakers will typically make the home team a favorite by two and a half to three points. As you can see, this number is higher than that. Perhaps I'm using faulty logic, but if anything, I would argue San Jose State has been more impressive in 2024 and has the best player on the field in wide receiver Nick Nash. Nash has caught 72 passes through seven games and scored 11 touchdowns (both tops in the nation). Fresno State is living off the reputation they developed under Jeff Tedford and should not be laying this many points against a solid conference foe. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VIII

Another week. Another three wins and four losses. I noticed in this weeks column, I have managed to select all road teams. What could go wrong? Home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 25-24

Oklahoma State +9.5 BYU

Expectations could not have been more diverse for these two teams heading into 2024. Oklahoma State was expected to contend for the Big 12 title (consensus second according to Stassen), while BYU was expected to finish near the basement of the league standings (third from the bottom). A month ago, BYU was a pleasant surprise, with a perfect 3-0 mark in the non-con. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State was also 3-0, with a home escape against Arkansas, and two dominant wins against overmatched foes. Had this game been played then, Oklahoma State probably would have been a slight favorite in Provo. But now the market has swung a bit too far. The Cougars are unbeaten, overall and in Big 12 play, but their record is buoyed by a good turnover margin (+7) and four non-offensive touchdowns. The Cougars have played four games against power conference opponents (Arizona, Baylor, Kansas State, and SMU). In two of those games, the Cougars have a +6 turnover margin (Arizona and Kansas State), winning those games by a combined 51 points. In their other two games, their turnover margin is even and they have won by a combined nine points. If the Cougars end up three turnovers in the black against Oklahoma State, they will win and cover, but turnover margin is highly variable and subject to the whims of the universe. At the other end of the spectrum, Oklahoma State has lost three in a row, something that has happened just two other times in the regular season under Mike Gundy (2005 and 2014). I expect the Cowboys to play their best game of the season with their backs against the wall. BYU does not profile as a great team to lay a big number with. Since Zach Wilson matriculated after the 2020 season, BYU is just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite. They may not be able to keep it up over the rest of the season, but Oklahoma State will rise up and put a scare into the unbeaten Cougars on Friday night. 

Wisconsin -7 Northwestern

The Badgers may have figured things out in Luke Fickell's second season. After a disappointing 7-5 regular season campaign in 2023 replete with four losses as a betting favorite (including one at home to Northwestern), Wisconsin dropped their first two games against power conference opponents in 2024. They fell at home to Alabama by 32 and then lost to Southern Cal by 17. In the loss to Alabama, quarterback Tyler Van Dyke went down with an injury. His replacement, Braedyn Locke started slow, completing just half his passes against the Crimson Tide and Trojans. However, in the past two games, he has completed nearly 68% of his passes while averaging over ten yards per throw. He has made more mistakes than you would like (tossing three interceptions), but the Badgers have scored 94 points in the two games. One of them came against Purdue, but last week, the Boilermakers showed they had not quit on the season. The other came against a decent defense in Rutgers. Northwestern is pretty much Rutgers with higher academic standards. The Wildcats don't play offense particularly well, but if you commit a ton of turnovers (like Maryland did last week), the Wildcats will parlay those into an ugly blowout win. I don't think the market has properly priced the improvement at the quarterback position for Wisconsin and Northwestern's victory against Maryland was extremely misleading. The Badgers might be pretty good and with home games remaining against Penn State and Oregon, have a chance to shake up not just the Big 10, but also the college football playoff race. 

Auburn +4.5 Missouri

How can it be that a team ranked in the top twenty is only slightly more than a field goal favorite against a team that enters with an 0-4 record against power conference opponents? Let's dive inside the numbers. Missouri has faced three power conference opponents (Boston College, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt), posted a 2-1 record, been outscored by 22 points, and outgained on a per play basis by more than a yard (5.38 to 6.63). Meanwhile, Auburn as previously mentioned, is 0-4 against power conference opponents, has been outscored by 41 points, but has outgained their foes by more than a yard on a per play basis (6.12 to 5.03). The difference is close games performance and turnovers. Missouri is 2-0 in close games, beating Boston College by six and Vanderbilt by three in overtime. They have a good, but not great turnover margin of +2 in those three games. Auburn, on the other hand, is 0-2 in close games, losing to Cal by seven and Oklahoma by six. They also have a terrible turnover margin of -9 in those four games. If you merely looked at those per play numbers and ignored the record, I'd argue Auburn should be favored in this spot. Missouri has dominated the three weak opponents on their schedule, pounding Murray State, Buffalo, and Massachusetts by a combined score of 134-3 and outgaining them by nearly three and a half yards per play. Rolling up big margins against outmanned opponents can tell us something about a team. However, the Tigers have shown in their three games against legitimate competition they are not a darkhorse contender in the SEC as some may have imagined in the preseason. Auburn is off a bye and needs this game to have any hopes of participating in the postseason. Take the Tigers with deeper SEC roots to win this game. 

East Carolina +15.5 Army

The Black Knights of the Hudson are ranked for just the fifth time in a season since the early 1960s. Their previous regular season forays as a ranked team did not go so well, as they lost three of five, with both victories coming against Navy in their annual rivalry clash. The Black Knights are looking to win their seventh game overall (sixth in league play) and inch ever closer to a spot in the AAC Championship Game. Army has dominated their first six opponents, winning by an average of nearly thirty points per game. However, their schedule has been among the easiest in college football. The five FBS teams they have beaten (Florida Atlantic, Rice, Temple, Tulsa, and UAB) have combined for a 4-22 record against FBS opponents. East Carolina, with two FBS wins, represents at least a minor step up in class. In addition, the Pirates were embarrassed by Charlotte the last time they took the field, allowing the 49ers to drop the dreaded double nickel on them. Coming off a bye, I expect a strong effort from East Carolina. The Pirates also have a strong track record as a road underdog under head coach Mike Houston, posting a 14-8 ATS record in the role, including 8-2 ATS as a double digit road underdog. Plus, service academies, even ones as dominant as Army, are typically a bad play when laying more than two touchdowns. This is the peak of the market for Army and the nadir for East Carolina. Back the Pirates and see if they can put a scare into one of the few remaining unbeaten college football teams. 

Charlotte +17 Navy

Speaking of service academies laying double digits...

Navy has taken nicely to the Wing T offense utilized by new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic. The Midshipmen have already scored more points through five games (218) than they did in twelve last season (212). I love the fact that Army and Navy are unbeaten, but its hard to keep this superb level of performance up all season. Charlotte also catches Navy in a nice sandwich spot. The Midshipmen were off last week, but they beat rival Air Force in their last game, and get a shot at a big scalp next week when they face Notre Dame in MetLife Stadium. Charlotte is also off a bye and has won two in a row after a woeful start to the season. The 49ers may have also found their quarterback of the future. Deshawn Purdie replaced an ineffective Trexler Ivey in the second half of their game against Rice, led a comeback win, and played well in their dismantling of East Carolina the next week. Charlotte has already matched their win total from last season and have an outside shot at getting to just the second bowl game in school history. The 49ers have also been great as road underdogs under head coach Biff Poggi, posting a 7-2 ATS record in the role, including 4-1 ATS as a double digit road underdog. Navy has too much firepower to call for an outright upset, but I like the 49ers catching a big number. 

Georgia +5 Texas

As far as SEC schedules go, the Texas Longhorns could not have crafted an easier one thus far in 2024. Their non-conference slate consisted of Colorado State, Louisiana-Monroe, and UTSA. While the Rams and Warhawks may eventually qualify for bowl games, neither is in the same stratosphere as Texas in regards to talent and while UTSA has a strong recent history at the mid-major level, they are nowhere near where they have been over the previous half-decade. Their other non-conference game was on the road against the defending national champs, but Michigan is unable to throw the football. Their two SEC games have come against the worst team in the league (Mississippi State) and a team missing roughly all their wide receivers (Oklahoma). The Longhorns have dominated against that schedule, but Georgia (even what appears to be a diminished Bulldog squad) represents a significant step up in competition. The Bulldogs have not played great in their four league games. They barely survived a road trip to Kentucky, fell way behind Alabama before staging a comeback and eventually losing a tenuous lead, cruised past Auburn, but didn't dominate the Tigers, and looked disinterested in a home win against Mississippi State. This is not the 2021, 2022, or 2023 Georgia squad, but they are still one of the best teams in the SEC and have shown they are capable of a complete performance (remember the opener against Clemson) and should be plenty desperate in this spot. If the Bulldogs lose, they will have two conference losses, with a road trip to Ole Miss, a home date with Tennessee, and the always dangerous Cocktail Party with Florida still on the schedule. They won't be eliminated from conference title contention, but their margin for error will be. And if you will allow me a brief digression. If the Bulldogs lose here and lose to say Ole Miss in a few weeks, they will be an interesting case study for the expanded college football playoff. They won't have any great wins (Tennessee would probably be their best scalp), but will have three quality losses on the road. I think they probably get in with that resume. Anyway, I think we see the best Georgia performance since their victory against Clemson. Texas should be favored at home, but not by more than a field goal. 

North Texas +12 Memphis

Halfway through the 2024 season, the Memphis offense may not be as formidable as we expected in the preseason. The Tigers scored twenty points against Florida State, 24 against a putrid Middle Tennessee defense, and 21 last week against South Florida. I expect them to eclipse that thirty against a bad Mean Green defense, but the Tigers will probably need to score in the forties or higher to cover this number. North Texas needed a stirring comeback to beat Florida Atlantic last week, but the Mean Green have moved the ball against every non-power opponent they have faced. In their four games against fellow mid-major football programs (Florida Atlantic, South Alabama, Tulsa, and Wyoming), North Texas has averaged over 47 points per game. The Memphis defense has played well against the bad or hurt offenses they have faced. Troy, Florida State, Middle Tennessee, and South Florida combined to score 39 total points against the Tigers, but the one competent and healthy offense on the schedule (Navy) ripped them to shreds, averaging over ten yards per play and scoring 56 points. The North Texas defense is too much of a liability for them to win the game, but this should be a back and forth affair and even a two touchdown lead late in the game will not be safe for Memphis. The backdoor should be wide open and I expect North Texas to waltz through it. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

A third losing week in a row. Hopefully, things can turn around this week As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 22-20

Kent State +6.5 Ball State

Their are three winless teams in college football: FBS neophyte Kennesaw State, new Mountain West member UTEP, and the Golden Flashes of Kent State. Kent State is 0-5 this season, and they have yet to beat an FBS team under second year head coach Ken Burns (not that Ken Burns). Despite those documented facts, I think the Golden Flashes are primed to get their first win of the season. Read on to find out why. For starters, Ball State is pretty bad in their own right. Their defense is in the running for the worst in college football. In their four games against FBS opponents, the Cardinals have allowed 207 total points. The Miami Hurricanes dropped 62 points on them, but more damning is the fact that the three Group of Five opponents they have faced, including two mid-level MAC teams (Central Michigan and Western Michigan) have averaged over 48 points per game, 498 yards per game, and over eight yards per play. That is not the type of defense you want to lay points on the road with, even against Kent State. And the Golden Flashes may have found something on offense. They scored 33 points in their most recent game (though they allowed 52) against Eastern Michigan. It was their second best point and yardage total under Burns. Off a bye, they should be able to move the ball and score points against a porous Ball State defense. Can they get enough stops of their own to clinch their first win? I think so. Ball State has only been a road favorite six times in eight seasons under head coach Mike Neu. They are 2-4 ATS in those games and are just 12-19 overall in MAC road games under Neu. Take the Golden Flashes and the points as they nab their first win since the end of the 2022 season. 

North Carolina +5 Georgia Tech

North Carolina is reeling, having lost three in a row, but I think this might be the spot to buy the proverbial dip (Skoal preferably). Speaking of threes, Georgia Tech has also won three straight in this series. The spread on this game indicates the betting market believes four in a row is likely, but this is a tremendous role reversal for these two teams. In each of the past three games, North Carolina entered both ranked and as a double digit favorite. I know North Carolina no longer has a future NFL quarterback taking snaps, but this spread may have gone too far in the other direction. This is also just the second time under Brent Key, and just the fourth time since Paul Johnson left, that Georgia Tech has been a favorite on the road. They are 0-3 ATS and 1-2 straight up in the three previous times they have been laying points away from Atlanta. Plus, just last week, Pitt was only laying two and a half to three points against the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. Is Georgia Tech better than Pitt? All those factors add up to a Tar Heel selection. Maybe Mack Brown crashes into retirement on a nine-game losing streak, but I think North Carolina has enough fight to win a few more games before the curtain closes, starting with this one against the Yellow Jackets. 

Buffalo +9.5 Toledo

With their victory against Miami last week, Toledo has now won nine straight regular season MAC games and are in good position to qualify for a third consecutive MAC Championship Game. However, I think the Rockets are a good fade candidate this week for several reasons. For starters, they are probably not as good as their 4-1 record would indicate. They are getting a lot of mileage out of their road blowout of a bad Mississippi State team. The Miami team they beat last week may also end up not being very good, and they lost their lone road game against a quality opponent (Western Kentucky). In addition, they may be overlooking the Bulls. Their next two games are against Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, two teams thought to also be contenders in the MAC. Finally, Buffalo is off a bye after being embarrassed by the Connecticut Huskies two weeks ago. The last thing the market saw was Buffalo losing by six touchdowns to Connecticut. But no team is ever really as bad as they look one week or as good as they look the next. The Bulls have a quality head coach with significant MAC experience and should be fresh and revitalized off their bye. Since joining the MAC, the Bulls are 3-1 straight up against Toledo at home and 4-0 ATS. Take the Bulls to keep this one close and potentially shake up the MAC race. 

South Florida +7 Memphis

This game was originally scheduled to be played on Friday night, but with the impending arrival of Hurricane Milton, has been moved to Saturday afternoon. If it is played, I think South Florida has a great shot at breaking out of their mini-skid. The Bulls have dropped two in a row and three of four. However, two of those losses came to teams currently ranked in the top ten (Alabama and Miami) and another team that may be end up being the AAC champion (Tulane). Two of those games (Alabama and Tulane) were also on the road, so a home date with Memphis will represent a significant downgrade in difficulty. While South Florida has faced two elite and one good team, Memphis has dealt with a relatively easy schedule. The three FBS teams the Tigers have beaten (Florida State, Middle Tennessee State, and Troy) have a combined 1-14 record against FBS opponents. The one good team Memphis faced absolutely throttled them. Navy needed a late interception to seal the win against the Tigers, but the Midshipmen rolled up over 550 yards of offense and averaged ten yards per play. South Florida probably won't put up numbers quite that good, but they should move the ball with relative ease and scored in the thirties at minimum. Memphis has been awful as a road favorite under Ryan Silverfield, posting a 4-8 ATS record. Navy exposed the Tigers defensive deficiencies and I expect South Florida to follow suit and win the game outright. 

Georgia State -1.5 Old Dominion

These two teams were picked to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt East division in the preseason, and outside of a shocking victory by Georgia State against Vanderbilt, have not done much to dissuade your humble narrator from thinking that is where they end up when the season is complete. Old Dominion put up a decent fight in their conference opener against Coastal Carolina last week, but they allowed 45 points and nearly eight yards per play to the Chanticleers. Since opening the year with a solid showing in Columbia against South Carolina, the Monarchs have allowed over 460 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play to their other four opponents. That is not a recipe for winning road conference games, particularly against a team with a competent passing offense. Christian Veilleux, a Pitt transfer, has thrown every pass for the Panthers this season and has posted solid numbers despite facing two power conference opponents. Meanwhile, the Monarchs may be without their starting quarterback. Grant Wilson was injured in their victory against Bowling Green two weeks ago. Backup Colton Joseph came on and led Old Dominion to an upset win with some big runs, but his performance was more uneven last week against Coastal Carolina. With another week of tape, and coming off a bye, I expect Georgia State to be prepared for his athleticism. Georgia State is the better team, is playing at home, and is off a bye. Take them to cover this small number. 

Vanderbilt +13.5 Kentucky

The Commodores have been in the news lately. They scored one of the biggest upsets of the season and in their history last week when they knocked off number one Alabama. With that win, I expected this number to be closer to a touchdown or perhaps even less. When I saw it was double digits I was shocked. Obviously, Vanderbilt needed some luck to knock off Alabama. They got it in the form of a pick six and a sack fumble that stopped an Alabama drive. Without those two plays, Vanderbilt probably loses. However, this was not an extremely fluky game that you can just wave off. The Commodores never trailed and actually outgained Alabama (thanks to running thirty more plays). They dominated the clock and converted short third and fourth downs like a triple option team which is spiritually, what the Commodores are this season. And when triple option teams have a dynamic quarterback, like Diego Pavia, they are capable of winning (and covering) as big underdogs. If the Commodores can shake off the massive media attention they generated after their victory against the Crimson Tide, they have a great shot at covering another big number. Kentucky is probably more talented than Vanderbilt, but this is not a team that should be laying double digits against a quality conference opponent. In their three games against SEC teams this season, the Wildcats have scored six, twelve, and twenty points. They will probably need to get to at least thirty to cover this number, and even then, that might not be enough. Vanderbilt is not the only team in this game that will be looking to play at a slow pace. Kentucky games actually see fewer possessions (ten per team) than Vanderbilt games (eleven per team). If there are fewer than twelve possessions apiece in this game, it will be very difficult for Kentucky to score enough to cover this number. Kentucky has also not done well as a large favorite under Mark Stoops. As a double digit home favorite, they are 10-13 ATS, but just 1-4 ATS against power conference opponents. And while they have dominated the series against Vanderbilt since Stoops arrived in 2013, winning eight of the eleven games, they have done poorly ATS, covering just four times. They have been double digit home favorites against Vanderbilt four times under Stoops. They have failed to cover each time and lost one of the games outright. Kentucky is coming off a bye and a top ten win of their own, but this Wildcat team is built to grind out conference games, not overwhelm opponents with their offensive prowess. Take Vanderbilt and the points and don't be shocked if they pull off their third outright upset as a double digit underdog. 

West Virginia +3 Iowa State

We knew before the season started that the Big 12 race would be one of the more unpredictable and fun ones in college football. And thus far, it has lived up to the hype. There are five teams currently unbeaten in Big 12 play and two of them are involved in this contest in Morgantown (BYU, Colorado, and Texas Tech are the other three). West Virginia dropped two games in the non-con (Penn State and Pitt), but they are still alive for a college football playoff bid under the new system. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 5-0 and does not face a team currently ranked in the AP Poll until late November. If they can avoid slipping up on this road trip, they could be 10-0 when they travel to Salt Lake City on November 23. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. Can the Cyclones escape their trip east? Unfortunately, for the Cyclones, the Mountaineers may be uniquely designed to pull off the upset. As they have done for the duration of the Matt Campbell era, Iowa State plays very good defense. However, their run defense has been a bit suspect. Iowa gained over 200 yards rushing and averaged over five yards per carry and Houston also averaged over five yards per rush against the Cyclones. West Virginia averages over five yards per carry on the season and mobile quarterback Garrett Greene has nearly 300 yards rushing thus far. Since joining the Big 12, West Virginia has beaten Iowa State two of three times in Morgantown. I think it will be three of four after Saturday night. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

Two losing weeks in a row, but we avoided absolute disaster. The calendar turns to October and Spooky Season, and your humble prognosticator gets back to work. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 19-16

Pittsburgh -2.5 North Carolina

After bottoming out at 3-9 last season, while fielding the worst offense of his tenure, Pat Narduzzi realized he needed to make a change. He nabbed a highly touted quarterback from the transfer portal, hired a successful offensive coordinator, and found a dynamic playmaker from the FCS ranks. The results thus far have been good. The Panthers are not an elite team, but they are fun to watch and the offensive issues have been fixed. The defense is still a work in progress, but the Panthers have already exceeded last season's win total and until they take their first loss, are a darkhorse candidate to get to the ACC Championship Game. They open conference play against a North Carolina squad that is reeling after a home loss to James Madison and a tough road loss where they blew a twenty point lead to archrival Duke. The Tar Heel defense has been particularly susceptible to the pass, which is not good news against the Pitt offense. North Carolina should be able to do some damage of their own against the less than formidable Pitt defense, but the Panthers are an enticing choice with this spread sitting at less than a field goal. You may think Pitt has been a bad favorite under Narduzzi, and you would be partially right. The Panthers have struggled ATS as a home favorite, posting a 10-16 ATS mark. However, when the betting market trusts them to lay points on the road, they have been rock solid. As a road favorite, they are 12-4 ATS. Meanwhile, you may be shocked to know that this is the first time North Carolina has been a home underdog since the 2020 season. The Tar Heels don't have a lot of experience in this role, and this feels like it could be the beginning of the end of the second Mack Brown era. Take the Panthers to move to 5-0. 

Massachusetts +17 Northern Illinois

These once and future conference foes meet for the first time in more than a decade. Their previous two meetings came at a different time for Northern Illinois football. Back then, Northern Illinois was  running roughshod through the MAC with Jordan Lynch and Tommylee Lewis helping the Huskies average nearly 40 points per game in 2012 and 2013. In those two seasons, Northern Illinois beat the Minutemen 63-0 and 63-19 respectively. This iteration of the Huskies is a contender in the MAC, but they play much slower and rely on a ball control offense. The Huskies scored 54 points against Western Illinois of the FCS in their opener, but have averaged under eighteen points per game against FBS competition. Granted, two of those were power conference teams (Notre Dame and NC State), and the Huskies even famously won one of those games, but they also scored just twenty points against Buffalo. Its hard to cover a three score spread, when you are unlikely to score in the mid-twenties. Northern Illinois is just 2-11 ATS as a home favorite under Thomas Hammock and 1-3 ATS as a double digit home favorite. They are a great team to back in the underdog role, but you don't want any part of laying points with them. Take the Minutemen to keep this one close. 

UAB +15 Tulane

Both of these teams were involved in blowouts last week. Tulane dominated South Florida as a slight home favorite and UAB could not stop the nouveau Navy option attack as a small home underdog. Had those results taken place during in the first game of the season, I could understand the reason for this large a spread. However, those games represented the fifth and fourth data points for Tulane and UAB respectively. That makes it very hard to comprehend why Tulane is such as large road favorite. Consider this. Two weeks ago, Tulane was a slight favorite at Louisiana-Lafayette (two points). Now they are laying more than two touchdowns on the road. Would the Ragin' Cajuns be installed as a thirteen point favorite against UAB on a neutral site? I doubt it. That tells me this spread is a bit too high. This pick is not in any way an endorsement of Trent Dilfer at UAB. He has been objectively awful, posting a 5-11 overall record (3-11 against FBS competition) at a school that was competing for and winning conference titles before his arrival. But this spread is too high, and the team that blasted UAB last week (Navy) may end up having the best offense in the AAC. Take the Blazers to cover this ridiculously high number. 

Appalachian State +3 Marshall

I always like to back a team that is coming off an embarrassing loss. And that is exactly what happened to the Mountaineers in their most recent outing. They were blasted a home by South Alabama on a showcase game on Thursday night. They were supposed to play Liberty last week, but Hurricane Helene forced that game to be canceled. I don't like to play psychologist very often, but one would think Appalachian State is motivated to play here, if not for their community, then as a diversion from what is sure to be a very difficult situation. The Mountaineers travel to Huntington to take on a Marshall team that has been an awful home favorite under Charles (not to be confused with Charlie) Huff. Since Huff arrived in Huntington, the Herd are just 4-8 ATS as a home favorite, five outright losses. Marshall barely survived at home against a mid-level MAC school last week. Take the Mountaineers to win their conference road opener. 

South Alabama -3.5 Arkansas State

South Alabama moved up to FBS in 2012 and and the Jaguars have played Arkansas State each season since. The Red Wolves dominated this series in the early going, winning the first five by over fourteen points per game. However, South Alabama has gone on a tear since, winning six of the past seven, including the past two in Jonesboro. South Alabama got off to a rough start, losing their first two games to North Texas and Ohio, but they are actually 1-0 in Sun Belt play and if they can beat the Red Wolves, will be 2-0 in the conference with four of their final six league games coming at home. South Alabama should be able to move the ball with ease against the Red Wolves. Arkansas State has allowed 6.7 yards per play on the year, and that includes games with Central Arkansas (FCS) and Tulsa. Two power conference teams not known for their offensive prowess (Iowa State and Michigan) also rolled through this Arkansas State defense (80 points and 925 total yards). Arkansas State will be able to score some points of their own against the vulnerable South Alabama defense, but in a game that should see a lot of possessions and a lot of points, I feel comfortable laying less than a touchdown. 

Washington -2.5 Michigan

Astute college football fans are probably asking why an unranked Washington team is favored against a top ten opponent. This is a legitimate question, but perhaps the better question is why is Michigan ranked in the top ten? The Wolverines have been outgained in all three of their games against power conference opponents, their starting quarterback is averaging less than four yards per pass, and they have played all their games at home up to this point. The Wolverines could easily be 2-3, while Washington could easily be 5-0 instead of 3-2. The Huskies have outgained all five of their opponents on the year and with four ranked teams left on the schedule after the Wolverines, as well as a dangerous trip to Iowa City, need to bank all the wins they can to ensure a third consecutive bowl trip. With their strong defense and power running game, Michigan can certainly win this game. However, the result of this game is heavily dependent on game script. If Michigan falls behind by ten or fourteen points early, there is almost no path for them to stage a comeback. Having not ventured outside the friendly confines of Ann Arbor yet, I think this is a game that can get away from them quickly. If this game is close in the fourth quarter, Michigan probably wins, but I think the more likely result is an avalanche of adversity on the road in Seattle. 

Duke +9.5 Georgia Tech

The Blue Devils are not getting any respect from the college football media despite their undefeated start. Duke is 5-0, and they, along with Liberty are the only unbeaten teams to not receive any votes in the most recent AP Poll. Great things were not expected of Duke in the preseason, but the Blue Devils have quietly put together a solid resume under first year head coach Manny Diaz. Duke has beaten two power conference teams with a cardinal direction in their name (Northwestern and North Carolina) along with a Connecticut team that may find it way to bowl eligibility. Their defense has been quite good, allowing under 300 yards per game and less than five yards per pass attempt. They also cause a lot of havoc, ranking second in the nation in tackles for loss (52). This trip to Atlanta represents their toughest test thus far, but if they are able to upset the Yellow Jackets, they could be 7-0 when SMU comes to Durham the last week of October. Georgia Tech is 3-2, but none of their victories have been particularly impressive. They beat a bad Florida State team in Ireland, with the Seminoles posting their best offensive numbers of the year. Their other two wins have come against Georgia State and VMI at home. As it was last season, the defense is the weak link of this team. In their last two games against power conference foes, Syracuse and Louisville have accumulated 840 total yards whole averaging 6.77 yards per play. Duke is not built for those kind of offensive numbers, but the Blue Devils should encounter little resistance moving the ball. The market has not caught on to how good (relatively) Duke is yet. And this is a role Manny Diaz has excelled in. Including his time at Miami, teams coached by Diaz are 7-1 ATS as a road underdog, with six outright wins. Similarly, this is a role where Brent Key's teams have struggled. The Yellow Jackets are 2-4 ATS as a home favorite under Key, with four outright losses. Take the Blue Devils to continue their winning ways. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week V

We had our first losing week. It was bound to happen, but thankfully we avoided a disastrous week. If we can keep the losing weeks to 3-4 instead of 2-5 or 1-6, we should finish in the black. Time to start a new streak. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 16-12

Temple +13 Army

I'm dipping my toe into a weeknight game for the first time this year (Labor Day notwithstanding). If you peruse the AAC standings, you will notice something exciting. Army and Navy are currently in first place with identical 2-0 records. I am hoping they both finish as the top two teams in the American, meet in the AAC Championship Game, and then play again the next week in the regularly scheduled Army/Navy game. We are 25% of the way toward that goal if you are keeping track at home. Overall, Army is 3-0, and while none of their victories have been particularly close, they have yet to beat a quality team. They won their opener against Lehigh of the FCS and their two conference wins have come against FAU and Rice (one combined FBS win between them). Of course, their opponent on Thursday, Temple, can also be classified as a bad team. The Owls won their first game of the season last week against Utah State, and may not be favored in any of their final eight games. But if you squint, you can see some improvement. After a disastrous start, where they scored fourteen combined points against Oklahoma and Navy, the Owls changed quarterbacks, installing Rutgers transfer Evan Simon at quarterback. In the two games since the change, the Owls have scored 65 points, winning one game and covering both. If Simon can continue his solid play, the Owls should be able to score enough points to stay within striking distance of Army. Triple option teams are typically great to back as an underdog and bad to back as a favorite. Their offense chews up the clock, limiting possessions, and preventing favorites from getting margin. Army has been a double digit favorite just five times under Jeff Monken. They have covered three of those games in that limited sample, but they have also lost two outright. The market is sleeping on Temple and the Owls also faced a similar (and better) offense just three weeks ago when they traveled to Annapolis to take on the Midshipmen. Take the Owls to keep this one close and put a scare in the Black Knights. 

Wake Forest -3 Louisiana-Lafayette

I know the Ragin' Cajuns prefer to be called Louisiana, but old habits are hard to break, so they will be known as Louisiana-Lafayette by me in perpetuity (much like the NFL's Colts are consistently referred to as 'Baltimore' by my father). Based on their performance over the past two calendar years, its easy to see why Wake Forest is only laying three points at home to a Sun Belt opponent. On October 29, 2022, Wake Forest was 6-1, ranked tenth in the country, and headed to Louisville for an afternoon game against the Cardinals. Wake led by a point at the half, but self-immolated in the second half, turning the ball over on possession after possession (eight in total) on their way to a crushing defeat. Including the Louisville debacle, Wake Forest is 6-14 in their past twenty regular season games. Two of those victories have come against FCS opponents, one against a bad Vanderbilt team, one against the worst Pitt team of the 21st century, one against Old Dominion, and their 'best' regular season victory came against a Syracuse squad that also wheezed to the finish in 2022. So why on earth should you and your money go anywhere near them? For starters, Wake is probably better than people think this year. They have not beaten an FBS team, but they came very close against an improved Virginia team. More importantly, their offense seems to have rebounded from their horrific performance last season. Wake averaged just north of twenty points per game last season (under twenty against FBS opponents). Once again, they are averaging under twenty points per game against FBS opponents in 2024, but they have only played two such games and one came against Ole Miss. I was skeptical of the Rebels heading into the season, but they appear to be the real deal. And while Wake only scored six points against the Rebels, they turned the ball over on downs twice and threw an interception in Ole Miss territory. Against non-elite defenses, the Demon Deacons should be fine in 2024. They won't reach the heights of 2021, but they should be able to move the ball against a Sun Belt defense that has not really been tested this season. The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-1 with one of those wins coming against an FCS opponent. However, their other victory came against Kennesaw State, the newest (and perhaps worst) member of FBS. They are also coming off an emotional game against in-state rival Tulane last week. Now they hit the road to face a power conference team that is off a bye. The Ragin' Cajuns are a respectable 4-2 ATS as a road underdog under Michael Desormeaux, but they are 0-2 ATS on the road against power conference opponents. You are catching the Demon Deacons at a discount. Back them in this spot. 

Central Michigan -3 San Diego State

Its early, but it seems like there are a lot of bad teams in the Mountain West. New Mexico and Wyoming are winless. Air Force, Hawaii, San Diego State, and Utah State have not beaten an FBS opponent, and the Falcons and Aztecs look like two of the worst offenses in college football. Perhaps that sextet improves once conference play starts, but for now, half the league looks like trash. The Aztecs are currently renovating their program with former Kent State coach Sean Lewis looking to bring an up-tempo offense to a school with a defensive identity. Results, as expected have not been great thus far. It took Lewis some time to build Kent State into a competent MAC team. His first season featured a lot of losses (1-7 MAC record). The Golden Flashes didn't really hit their stride until late in his second season. They were 3-10 through their first thirteen MAC games, but went 16-7 in league play over the remainder of his tenure. Since his departure after the 2022 season, the Flashes have won just a single games and have not beaten an FBS team. He's a good coach, but don't expect results until next year. While San Diego State is off a bye, Central Michigan is off a tight victory against Ball State in their league opener. The win moved the Chippewas to 2-2. While that record may not seem impressive on the surface, it is when you consider they have a turnover margin of -7 and have forced just a single turnover on the season. Some regression (or progression in terms of forcing them) in that department will do wonders for Central Michigan's record. That turnover margin is unsustainable and is depressing this spread. Central Michigan should be laying more than a field goal, so take the Chippewas to cover this small number against a team that has trouble scoring. And if you're curious, yes, Lewis did face Central Michigan once while he was at Kent State. The Golden Flashes were a slight road underdog and lost by 34. 

Louisiana-Monroe +7 Troy

I don't know if you know this, but Jon Sumrall does not coach Troy any more. After winning two Sun Belt titles in two seasons at Troy, Sumrall took the Tulane job. Maybe the betting market has not caught on to that fact yet. Otherwise, this spread does not make sense to me. Outside of their victory against Florida A&M last week, Troy has done nothing to warrant laying nearly a touchdown in a conference game. The Trojans have already lost to a team that has been bad for multiple seasons, but looks to be improved under a first year head coach, when they dropped their opener to Nevada. Louisiana-Monroe has won just ten games the past four seasons, but an underrated blogger opined that last season they were one of the better teams to go winless in conference play. Improvement was possible, and perhaps inevitable, and last week's game against Texas notwithstanding, they have looked better against teams in their own weight class. Troy's days of running the Sun Belt are over (at least for now), but it seems the betting market has not wised up to that yet. Take the Warhawks and don't be shocked if they pull off the outright upset.  

Charlotte +6.5 Rice

Someone has to explain to me what the betting market sees in Rice? The Owls have been favored in two of their three games against FBS competition this season. They are 0-2 ATS and straight up in those games, losing to Sam Houston and regular Houston by a combined 46 points. And here they are again, laying nearly a touchdown. Granted, Charlotte has not shown much this season, but are you really prepared to lay your hard earned money on Rice? The Owls have been a poor favorite for the duration of head coach Mike Bloomgren's tenure. They are 2-8 ATS as a home favorite, with seven outright losses. They have not fared much better in road trips as a favorite either, posting a 2-4 ATS mark with three outright losses. For those scoring at home, the Owls are 4-12 ATS as a favorite, with ten outright losses! That kind of performance will usually get you fired and probably will if it continues. As I mentioned earlier, Charlotte has not shown much this season, but at least the 49ers have had the wherewithal to lose to good (Indiana and James Madison) or at least power conference (North Carolina) teams. Plus, Charlotte at least been competitive in the road underdog role under head coach Biff Poggi. They are 7-2 ATS as a road dog. They also won in their only previous trip to Rice, dominating the Owls as a fifteen point underdog two years ago. In this battle of bad teams, take the one getting nearly a touchdown. 

Illinois +17.5 Penn State

Illinois is 4-0 and the Illini have already sprung two upsets, beating Kansas in Champaign and upsetting Nebraska in Lincoln last Friday night. A win in State College would reset the Big 10 race significantly and potentially rocket Illinois into the AP top ten for the first time since they won the Big 10 in 2001. That probably won't happen on Saturday, but a guy can dream, can't he? At worst, the Illini will represent by far the stiffest test Penn State has faced thus far. The Nittany Lions are fresh off a beating of Kent State, pounding the Golden Flashes 56-0. I'll point out two weeks ago, the Golden Flashes allowed 71 points to Tennessee, so I don't know that there is a whole lot to be learned from that data point other than Penn State good and Kent State bad. Penn State's passing offense has been dominant through their first three games, averaging over twelve yards per throw. The Illini pass defense has allowed under six yards per throw in their four games, although Nebraska did make some plays against that secondary last week. Since returning to the Big 10 in 2021, Illinois head coach Bret Bielema has performed well in the underdog role. His teams are 10-3 ATS as a road underdog, including a 6-1 ATS record as a double digit road underdog. Give me the Illini on Saturday night, although I fully expect James Franklin to try and punch one in late to cover this number when he could just take a knee or two. It would not be the first time. 

Washington State +7.5 Boise State

For the second year in a row, Washington State is off to a blistering start. The Cougars opened 2023 with four consecutive wins (two over ranked teams), rose to number thirteen in the AP Poll, and then proceeded to lose seven of their last eight games. The good news for the Cougars is that in 2024, there are only Mountain West teams (some of them quite bad) and Oregon State left on the schedule, so a similar collapse is unlikely. After facing San Jose State in a thriller last week, they continue their Mountain West sojourn with a trip to Boise State. The Broncos were the consensus favorite to win the Mountain West before the season started, but these are not your older brother's mid-major powerhouse. Since Chris Petersen left for Washington following the 2013 season, Boise State is 5-8 both straight up and ATS against power conference opponents in the regular season. Under Petersen (2006-2013), they were 6-3 straight up and ATS in regular season games versus power conference opponents. I know Washington State is technically no longer a power conference team as the Pac-12 has lost most of its major brands, but they still have that power conference residue (and have beaten two power conference teams this season). They also have an exciting playmaker taking snaps. John Mateer is averaging nearly 300 yards passing per game and over 100 yards per game on the ground. The dual threat quarterback should be able to keep Washington State in this game against a porous Bronco defense. The Broncos have allowed 45 and 37 points to the two FBS teams they have faced. I expect Washington State to score at least thirty and keep this margin within a touchdown. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IV

As I mentioned last week, the margins in gambling are thin. I lost two bets by one point, one by two points, and won a bet by a half point. We were somehow able to grind out another winning week, which we are always thankful for. We'll try to make it an unprecedented four winning weeks in a row. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 13-8

James Madison +10.5 North Carolina

After losing Drake Maye to the riches of the NFL and starting quarterback Max Johnson to an injury in their opener, North Carolina is quietly 3-0. Its their fourth 3-0 start in six seasons under the second Mack Brown regime. The Tar Heels will look to close out their non-conference slate with a perfect 4-0 mark before opening ACC play next week at Duke. Their opponent, James Madison, is a bit of an unknown. After dominating the Sun Belt in their first two seasons as an FBS program, their head coach took the Indiana job and their quarterback headed west to Texas State. The Dukes hired Bob Chesney from Holy Cross as their new head coach and have opened 2-0, but their most recent game was a bit disconcerting, at least on offense. The Dukes beat Gardner-Webb of the FCS, but only managed thirteen points in a tight win. Gardner-Webb has come close to knocking off two FBS teams, nearly taking out Charlotte last week as well, but losing thanks to a failed two-point conversion. James Madison did not play well offensively in their game with the Runnin' Bulldogs, but they left a few points on the field, missing a field goal and turning the ball over on downs twice. Their offense may be able to get back on track against a North Carolina team that doesn't appear to have fixed the defensive issues that have plagued them throughout Mack Brown's second tenure. The Tar Heels and Dukes have played one common opponent this season, Charlotte. The 49ers could not move the ball against James Madison, scoring just seven points while averaging under four and half yards per play. Against North Carolina, they scored only twenty points, but averaged nearly ten yards per pass. The 49ers scored two touchdowns, but had first and goal inside the North Carolina ten on two other occasions. They came away with just two field goals on those drives. With a week off to prepare, I think James Madison will be able to move the ball against North Carolina. Plus, despite playing in the Sun Belt and moving up from FCS just two seasons ago, I think James Madison has the stronger defense. Take the Dukes and the double digits. 

Kansas +2.5 West Virginia

The Jayhawks and Mountaineers come into this game with identical 1-2 records. The loser, will obviously fall to 1-3 and into a sort of existential dread. The winner, will ne just 2-2, but will be unbeaten in Big 12 play and still have an outside shot at a College Football Playoff bid. Kansas has dropped two games despite arguably outplaying both Illinois and UNLV. The Jayhawks outgained the Illini and the Rebels by more than a yard per play, but committed six total turnovers in both games (-5 margin). The Illini returned an interception for a touchdown late in the second quarter and the Rebels used a late second quarter interception to run the worst two-minute drill of all time (that still somehow resulted in a touchdown). The Rebels also had one of the most fortuitous bounces on their game-winning touchdown drive. Suffice to say, Kansas has been a bit unlucky thus far in 2024. West Virginia was also a bit unlucky in that they blew a ten-point fourth quarter lead last week against archrival Pitt, but their defense has been pretty bad through three games. The Mountaineers have allowed nearly ten yards per pass on the season, and remember one of those data points includes Albany from the FCS. Offensively, the Mountaineers rely on their ground game, but Kansas has played the run well, allowing just over three yards per carry. I think you are getting the Jayhawks at a discount. ESPN's FPI metric rated them as the best team in the Big 12 before the season started (West Virginia was ninth by the same metric). If the Jayhawks can avoid the turnover issues that have plagued them the past two games, they are primed to pull the upset in Morgantown. 

Southern Miss +6 Jacksonville St

One season after beginning their FBS life with a 9-4 campaign, the Gamecocks from Jacksonville State are floundering and in danger of matching last year's loss total less than a month into the season. What sort of clairvoyant could have seen this regression coming? Despite their head coach's reputation as an offensive innovator, last season's Gamecock team won with defense. They created havoc and lived in opposing backfields, generating 38 sacks on the year. This year's team has just five sacks, with all of them coming last week against Eastern Michigan. Perhaps their pass rush is rounding into form. Or maybe Eastern Michigan's offensive line is just that bad. They did allow seven sacks to Washington the previous week, so I'll let you infer from that what you will. Anyway, the Gamecocks have been much worse on defense, and their offense has been about the same. Yet, somehow, this winless team is laying nearly a touchdown against a team from a better conference. Will Hall is working very on getting fired as head coach of the Eagles, posting a 14-26 record in just over three seasons in Hattiesburg. The Eagles can at least blame a tough schedule for their rough start, losing to a power conference team on the road (Kentucky) and an up and comer from the AAC (South Florida). There is no loss to Eastern Michigan (no offense to Chris Creighton and company) or a home blowout to Coastal Carolina on this ledger. That's not to say things won't devolve as the Eagles get into Sun Belt play, but right now, I think the spread on this game should be close to even on a neutral field. I'll make a principled stand and back Southern Miss in a battle of two teams headed for disappointing seasons. 

Navy +10 Memphis

At the quarter poll of their 2024 campaign, the question remains, how good is Memphis? The Tigers were the consensus top team in the AAC in the preseason, and had they started out 3-0 with this schedule in 2023, would be deserving of a little number beside their name in the AP Poll. Troy and Florida State finished a combined 22-2 in the regular season last year and each won their respective conference titles (Sun Belt and ACC), but the Trojans and Seminoles have fallen on hard times. Troy is 0-3, having lost to these Tigers as well as Iowa and Nevada, while Florida State is also famously winless. Give the Tigers credit for winning the games on their schedule, but I thinks its fair to say Navy is the best team they will have faced thus far. The Midshipmen are also undefeated, but have not beaten anyone of note (Bucknell and Temple). However, they are averaging over 40 points per game in that small sample against bad teams after averaging just under 18 points per game last season. One reason to believe this may be legitimate progress and not just stat-padding is the presence of offensive coordinator Drew Cronic. Cronic is the former head coach at Mercer (and also Reinhardt and Lenoir-Rhyne). He guided the Bears to their first playoff appearance in school history last year and has posted just one losing season in eight years as a head coach. Cronic has installed a hybrid Wing T offense in Annapolis and it appears to be working thus far. The Midshipmen have had a week off to prepare for Memphis, the Tigers are probably overvalued by the market after their unbeaten start, and Navy has covered three of the four games at home in this series since joining the AAC in 2015. Take the Midshipmen to cover and potentially shake up the AAC race. 

Vanderbilt +20 Missouri

One of my hottest takes heading into the season was that Vanderbilt would compete for a bowl bid. With their non-conference schedule and New Mexico State transplants, I thought they had a decent chance at heading into their regular season finale against Tennessee with either five or six wins. Their upset win against Virginia Tech did nothing to diminish my enthusiasm. And then, they lost at Georgia State. The Commodores dilly dallied the whole game and trailed the Panthers by double digits late in the fourth quarter before staging a rally to take the lead only to be undone by a late Georgia State touchdown. The loss probably extinguishes Vandy's bowl prospects, but it doesn't change the fact that this team can still be a thorn in the side of their eight SEC opponents. The Commodores do not technically run the triple option, but in spirit, this is a service academy. In their first three games, the Commodores have run the ball nearly twice as often as they have thrown it, and that spread was even more pronounced before they had to pass the entire fourth quarter last week against Georgia State. In their first two games, the Commodores ran the ball more than 70% of the time. A running underdog is the type of team you want to back when they are catching a lot of points. As we saw last week, when Missouri faced another triple option emeritus team in Boston College. The Tigers and Eagles combined for just nineteen total drives, and despite controlling the game from the beginning of the second quarter on, Missouri was never able to pull away and cover the three-score spread. I expect something similar to happen here. Barring some fantastic turnover luck, Vanderbilt does not have the firepower to win this game outright. However, they should be able to limit the possessions, score between thirteen and seventeen points, and cover this number. 

TCU -3 SMU

The Iron Skillet rivalry has been dominated by TCU since SMU came back from the dead. The teams have played 33 times since 1989 and TCU is 25-8 against the Mustangs in that span. I'll point out SMU has won two of the past four games in this series, but their head coach in those games was Sonny Dykes (current TCU head coach). In fact, teams coached by Dykes are 4-1 in this rivalry (2-1 at SMU and 2-0 at TCU). Both teams enter this game off disappointing defeats. SMU is off a bye, but in their most recent game, they lost at home to BYU, managing just fifteen points against the Cougars. TCU lost this past Saturday, blowing a 21-point second half lead to UCF in their Big 12 opener. Despite the loss, TCU played well offensively, scoring 34 points (tied for the fewest they have scored all season). That side of the ball is where SMU has struggled this season. After averaging over 35 points per game against FBS opponents last season, SMU has managed just 44 total points against Nevada and BYU. They did throttle Houston Baptist, but I think we can dismiss that result. In the process, they have also benched their starting quarterback and turned things over to Kevin Jennings. Jennings started for the Mustangs in their AAC Championship Game victory last season after Preston Stone was injured in the regular season finale, but he also started the Fenway Bowl where the Mustangs managed just fourteen points against a porous Boston College defense. Results have been mixed. And I don't think you can count on the Mustangs putting up a lot of point this week. Something is off with their offense (perhaps Stone is not fully recovered from his leg injury) and the Mustangs have lost six consecutive games to power conference opponents. In fact, their last two victories against power conference opponents came against TCU in 2019 and 2021 when, as I previously mentioned, Sonny Dykes was the coach. Dykes finished 2-2 against power conference opponents in his SMU career. As I also mentioned, current head coach Rhett Lashlee is 0-6 against power conference foes and overall SMU has not been great when stepping up in class. They went nine years, and seventeen games, between power conference victories (beat Washington State in 2010) before beating TCU in 2019. The majority of those seventeen games came against teams from Texas (Baylor, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech). SMU does not have a great track record in this rivalry, and their greatest success in it came under the tutelage of the coach on the other sideline. TCU does not have to blow SMU out to cover this number. Take the Horned Frogs to notch another victory in this series and keep the skillet for another year. 

Oklahoma +7 Tennessee

I hate standing in front of freight trains. I don't like to bet against elite teams when they are laying points, so I may end up regretting this one very early Saturday night, but allow me to lay out the reasons why I think you should back Oklahoma. What do we really know so far about Tennessee? The Vols have been dominant in their first three games, outscoring their opponents by an absurd 191-13 margin. But who have they beaten? An FCS team (Chattanooga), a very bad FBS team (Kent State), and an ACC team that was losing at the half to Louisiana Tech at home (NC State). Maybe the Wolfpack get their act together and become a contender in the ACC, but thus far their best win is against a probable 7-5 ACC team. Dominating inferior opponents can tell us a lot about a team, but lets not hang any banners in Knoxville just yet. This road trip to Norman will mark quarterback Nico Iamaleava's first ever road start. He started the neutral site game against NC State and the bowl game against Iowa last season, but this will be the most adversity he has faced in his young career. Oklahoma is also rarely an underdog in Norman. The last time was 2016 against Ohio State. The Buckeyes did dominate that game, but that was an experienced team that would go on to make the four-team College Football Playoff. Finally, do you know what Tennessee's record is under Josh Heupel in SEC road games? 5-7, with three of the victories coming against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Two years ago, the Vols blasted an LSU team that would eventually win the SEC West, but that has been more the exception than the rule whenever they leave the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium. Oklahoma has not looked good on offense in their first three games, but the defense is very good and will present the stiffest test Tennessee has faced this far. I don't know if Oklahoma has the firepower to win the game outright, but this should be more of a low-scoring defensive affair, reminiscent of SEC games of a decade or so ago. Take the Sooners catching points at home.