Last Week: 3-4
Overall 23-19
It looked like Saturday would be the night Nebraska finally overcame whatever voodoo curse was placed on them by Frank Solich when he was unceremoniously fired in 2003. The Cornhuskers were in position to notch the biggest win of the Scott Frost era, but a fumble by Adrian Martinez and a late field goal allowed Michigan to escape. The loss dropped Nebraska to an incredible 5-16 in one-score games under Frost. Despite yet another close loss, Nebraska's statistical profile is still that of a solid team. With a 1-3 Big Ten record, they have outgained their first four conference opponents by more than a yard and a half per play. Note those numbers have been accumulated against a schedule that includes two unbeaten teams (Michigan and Michigan State). It also includes games against Illinois and Northwestern, but those are still numbers unbecoming a team that wins a quarter of its conference games. With a 3-4 record, Nebraska must win this game and beat Purdue to have a chance at bowl eligibility as they should be underdogs in their final three games (Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa). As for the Golden Gophers, they have struggled to move the ball and score since losing senior running back Mohamed Ibrahim to injury in the opener against Ohio State. They have been held under 300 yards of total offense three times in four games since his season ending injury. And lets not forget in that span they have also lost as a thirty point favorite. This is a perfect buy low spot for Nebraska. Count on the Cornhuskers to go into the twin cities and leave with a comfortable win. Unless its close. If this game is tight in the fourth quarter, I suggest you go for a walk or catch up on Below Deck because chances are Nebraska will do something to blow it.
Oklahoma State +4 Texas
Does Oklahoma State have the best defense in the Big 12? A few weeks back when I was previewing their game against Kansas State (a loser for me by the way), I noted Oklahoma State has quietly shifted into a Big 12 version of Iowa. They play a lot more game in the twenties instead of the forties and have been winning with defense for a little while now. This season, the Cowboys are 5-0 and have held three of their four FBS opponents to their lowest point total output (Baylor, Boise State, and Kansas State) and two to their lowest yards per play totals (Baylor and Kansas State). The offense remains a work in progress, with the running game averaging under four yards per carry. However, Texas may be just what the doctor ordered to get that offense out of neutral. The Longhorns have allowed over seven yards per play to three of the four Power Five teams they have faced this season. And if you watched any of the Oklahoma thriller, you know they have some issues tackling. The Texas offense is one of the nation's best, so I can see why oddsmakers have them laying almost a touchdown, but if Texas was winning by ten points late in the fourth quarter, would you have confidence in them keeping Oklahoma State out of the endzone to prevent a backdoor cover? Oklahoma State's offensive struggles will probably prevent them from winning the Big 12, but their defense is good enough to keep them in any game including this one against a flawed Texas team coming off an emotional loss in a game they probably thought they had won on several occasions. Take the Cowboys and the points.
South Florida +8.5 Tulsa
South Florida has yet to defeat an FBS team in Jeff Scott's second season. The Bulls knocked off The Citadel in their pandemic delayed opener last season and beat Florida A&M a month ago. However, they are 0-12 against FBS opponents. Don't let those ugly numbers scare you away though. The Bulls have quietly played better on offense the past few weeks behind freshman quarterback Timmy McClain. McClain is averaging eight and a half yards per throw despite a rough opening schedule. The Bulls have faced four teams currently ranked in the AP Poll (BYU, Florida, NC State, and SMU). Tulsa is significantly worse than those four teams and should not be laying more than a touchdown on the road. The Golden Hurricane won all three of their conference road games last season and nearly upset Cincinnati on the road in the AAC Championship Game. I'm inclined to believe their 2020 success was due to the unique circumstances surrounding the season and general good fortune (four of their six conference wins were by one score). From 2017 through 2019, the Golden Hurricane were 1-11 in AAC road games, losing six of the eleven by double digits. Tulsa did scrape by Memphis at home last week, but Memphis outgained them by nearly 200 yards. The Tigers turned the ball over three times (to zero for Tulsa) and missed three field goals in the six-point loss. Tulsa is overvalued by the betting market and I expect a solid performance from South Florida off their bye.
Texas State +7.5 Troy
On the surface, this a pretty nondescript Sun Belt clash. But to me, a college football superfan, it is a battle of two teams led by trendy former offensive coordinators who are in their third season as head coaches and might be about to get fired. Chip Lindsey is the head coach of Troy. He steadily climbed the offensive coordinator ranks from Southern Miss to Arizona State and finally to Auburn. However, in his two plus seasons at Troy, the Trojans are 13-16. On the surface that doesn't seem too bad, but before he arrived, they had won at least ten games for three consecutive seasons. And their offenses have gotten progressively worse each season. His first team averaged nearly 34 points per game. Last year's team averaged about 27 and a half and this year's team has averaged just over 24 per game. Take out the double nickel they dropped on Southern, and the average drops to about 18 per game against FBS competition. Oh, and his team lost to Louisiana-Monroe. What about Texas State? Well, they are led by Jake Spavital, former offensive coordinator at West Virginia. Under Spavital, the Bobcats are 7-22 in two plus seasons. That's clearly worse than Lindsey, but I should point out Texas State averaged just two and a half wins per season in the four years before Spavital arrived in San Marcos. And their offense has actually improved since he arrived. The Bobcats averaged under 19 points per game in his first season, jumped to over 27 per game last season, and are averaging just north of 26 per game this season. Their bigger issues have been on the other side of the ball where they have not allowed fewer than 30 points per game in any season under Spavital. With that background out of the way, I suggest you back Texas State because the Bobcats have been relatively frisky as a home underdog (5-2 ATS since the start of last season) and because Troy will probably not be scoring a lot of points. Their defense is legitimately solid for a Sun Belt unit, but Lindsey wasn't hired to squeak by Sun Belt teams while scoring in the teens. Take Texas State to keep this within a touchdown.
Miami +7.5 North Carolina
Call it the Disappointment Bowl. Or if you have a thesaurus handy, maybe the Despondency Duel. Either way, neither of these teams figured to be .500 or worse in mid-October. The Hurricanes and Tar Heels have an incredible six losses between them despite being underdogs just a single time (Miami's opener with Alabama). Miami will be without the services of quarterback D'Eriq King, but metaphorically, they have been without his services all season. I hate to critique a player who suffered a gruesome injury in their bowl game and battled back to return the next season, but King was clearly diminished as both a passer and dynamic runner. Turning the offense over to freshman Tyler Van Dyke (maybe he can get some advice from Luther) is what Miami needed both for the short and long term success of the program. While Miami enters this game with a losing record, North Carolina has arguably been the bigger disappointment. The Tar Heels wee ranked tenth in the preseason AP Poll, but dropped their opener to Virginia Tech and also dropped conference games to Georgia Tech and Florida State. After Saturday, North Carolina will somehow be 75% done with their conference schedule (they have a non-conference game with Wake Forest in a few weeks)! Thanks to their rough start, the Tar Heels are practically eliminated from division and conference title contention in the ACC. With that carrot buried in the ground, you have to wonder how motivated they will be over the second half of the season. Meanwhile, after their embarrassing performance against North Carolina last season, I don't think Manny Diaz will have to work very hard to motivate the Hurricanes. In addition, while Miami has three losses, only one of them has come in ACC play, so the Hurricanes are very much alive in the division race. Miami has done well as a road underdog under Diaz, at least when not facing the number one team in the country. Miami is 4-1 ATS in that role under Diaz with four outright victories. Their lone loss came to Clemson last year in Death Valley. Off a bye, I think Miami adds to North Carolina's disappointing campaign.
Arizona +6 Colorado
On the surface, this line makes sense. Arizona is winless, having started the Jedd Fisch era with five consecutive losses, including one to Northern Arizona of the FCS. On the other hand, Colorado is winless against FBS teams, having scored 34 total points in their four games against FBS competition. They did throw a scare into Texas A&M, but their other three FBS opponents outscored them by 75 combined points. As I am want to mention in this section of the internet, it is hard to cover when you can't score. And Colorado matches that description. You couldn't install Arizona as a favorite in this game, but I am shocked Colorado is laying more than a field goal. I wouldn't worry about the altitude (or elevation) affecting Arizona too much either. Since joining the Pac-12, Colorado has been favored in 13 home conference games (out of 42 total home conference games). They are a middling 7-6 ATS in those games. In addition, Arizona has won their past four visits to Boulder, including twice as an underdog. In fact, the last game Arizona won came almost exactly two years ago in this very venue (on a night eerily similar to this). Arizona is bad, but they have been feisty despite their 0-5 record, covering in two of the three games where they entered as underdogs. The Wildcats may well finish 0-12 in 2021, but if they are going to win a game this season, it probably comes on Saturday.
UCLA +1.5 Washington
We were all probably a little too quick to jump on the UCLA bandwagon after they beat LSU. The Tigers may end up finishing in the basement of the SEC West, but we all wanted to believe so badly. Consequently, UCLA got up to 13th in the AP Poll and there were even some whispers about a potential College Football Playoff appearance. Then the Bruins fell on their face in a home loss to Fresno State. They rebounded to beat Stanford, but got rolled at home by Arizona State. While the final score against the Sun Devils was not pretty, Arizona State may wind up being the best team in the Pac-12 and also the conference champion (remember their loss to BYU was not a conference game). The losses to Fresno State and Arizona State exposed the UCLA defense as not quite ready for primetime. Fresno State gained 569 yards and while Arizona State 'only' gained 463, they averaged nearly nine yards per snap. Of course, if you have defensive issues, Washington can do a lot to build your confidence. The Huskies looked potent against Arkansas State, scoring 52 points against one of the worst FBS defenses, but in their other four games, they have averaged just 18 points per game. That includes an FCS loss, an overtime game against Cal (where they managed just 24 points in regulation), and a loss to Oregon State (not exactly a defensive stalwart). A standard Washington team should be able to make up for those offensive deficiencies by playing really good defense. That has not been the case for this one, especially against the run. The Huskies were able to bottle up Montana and Arkansas State, but Michigan ran for 343 yards against them and Oregon State nearly ran for 250. UCLA has averaged over 200 yards per game rushing through the first half of 2021 so even if their volatile quarterback, Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggles throwing the ball, the Bruins should still be able to move the ball on the ground. UCLA hosts Oregon next week, but the Bruins and Ducks have already played two times since Chip Kelly took the UCLA job, so I don't think you have to worry about them looking ahead. UCLA will leave their trip to the Pacific northwest with a minor upset.
No comments:
Post a Comment