Thursday, November 04, 2021

The Magnificent Seven: Week X

Regression finally came for me. Hopefully we can get back in the groove and bounce back this week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 2-5
Overall 35-28

Georgia Tech +10.5 Miami
This is the exact spot where you want to fade Miami. The Hurricanes have won two straight games as an underdog and are heading home to take on a team that is likely to finish with a losing record for the third consecutive season. The Hurricanes, especially quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, have played well the past two weeks, but lost in the afterglow of those two upset victories is the fact the defense has taken a noticeable step back. The Hurricanes have allowed 64 total points to NC State and Pittsburgh and if we go back further, they have allowed at least 30 points to every ACC and Power Five opponent. In fact, by yards per play in ACC games, their defense is the fourth worst in the conference (ahead of Boston College, Virginia, and Duke). Georgia Tech's defense is not appreciably better (fifth worst in yards per play in ACC games), but the Yellow Jackets have their best offense under Geoff Collins. Clemson's strong defense held them down, but in their other five ACC games, they are averaging nearly 31 points per game and 6.8 yards per play. Miami's defense is not good enough to be laying double digits against a competent offense. Plus, the Hurricanes are just 4-9 ATS as a home favorite under Manny Diaz and just 3-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite at any venue. Take the Yellow Jackets to cover this inflated number. 

Louisiana-Monroe +3.5 Texas State
I was on Louisiana-Monroe last week when the Warhawks were catching four touchdowns at Appalachian State. Despite falling way behind, they did not quit and nearly got in the backdoor, but fumbled on the one-yard line while down 31. I suppose I can't complain too much for backing a team that was behind by 42 points at the half, but it was still a bad beat in my book. I am a glutton for punishment, so naturally, I am back on them this week. The competition is significantly weaker, and for all their struggles, Louisiana-Monroe still has an outside shot at bowl eligibility. The Warhawks need to win two of their final four games to get there, but they probably need to win their next two. They close with games against in-state competition (LSU and Louisiana-Lafayette), so winning either of those would require a much larger upset. Can you tell me why Texas State is favored in this spot? The Bobcats are 7-25 under current head coach Jake Spavital who is likely to be fired (perhaps immediately following this game) before the 2022 season. His record is certainly one reason to dismiss him, but another is an odd recruiting choice he made in the offseason. Texas State did not sign any high school recruits and elected to utilize the transfer portal only. We'll give Spavital credit for using an unconventional tactic, but this scheme seemed hairbrained at best from the start. With few underclassmen to build with, how motivated will Texas State be on Saturday? Since many of the players may not be around next season, I think there is a good possibility they may check out down the stretch. Texas State has to sweep their final four games to attain bowl eligibility, and no matter how optimistic the coaches and players are, they have to know they are playing out the string like a bad baseball team in September. I think the Warhawks pull the slight upset and get their fifth win against a team that has not outscored any opponent by more than two points in regulation this season. 

Maryland +10 Penn State
Last week, going against Maryland was one of the few picks I got right (and it took a backdoor touchdown to get it done). I have spilled quite a bit of ink on this blog about how bad I think Mike Locksley is as a head coach. However, I think there is value on Maryland this week. Penn State's defense is elite, but their offense has been running on fumes since their FCS scrimmage against Villanova. The Nittany Lions have averaged 4.40 yards per play and 21.5 points per game in that span. Unsurprisingly, they are 1-3 over their past four games. Maryland does represent the worst Big 10 defense they will have played this season, but I'm not sure Penn State will be able to take full advantage of that deficiency. The Penn State defense should be able to contain Maryland's talented offense, but as long as Taulia Tagovailoa avoids the conglomeration of interceptions he threw against Iowa, Maryland should be able to keep this one close. I expect this to be an archetypal Big 10 game with both teams scoring in the teens or lower twenties. Under James Franklin, Penn State does have a history of pounding Maryland (a place he was the head coach in waiting many years ago), beating them by 24, 63, 35, and 59 respectively between 2016 and 2019. However, another trend points to the Terps. Losses to Ohio State seem to take a lot out of Penn State. Between 2017 and 2020, the Nittany Lions were 1-3 straight up and 0-4 ATS in the game immediately following Ohio State. And those games were not expected to be close. Penn State was favored by at least a touchdown in all four and by double digits in three of them. The Nittany Lions have nothing to play for and are traveling to Maryland between an Ohio State/Michigan sandwich. Take the Terps in this great spot.  

Auburn +4.5 Texas A&M
Is it time to start asking whether Auburn under anti-vax head coach Bryan Harsin is the second best team in the SEC West? I think it might be. Look at the teams that have beaten the Tigers. Georgia is the consensus number one team by both the humans and the computers and while Penn State has fallen on hard times recently, they beat the Tigers when they were fully healthy. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is getting a lot of love from the betting markets for beating Alabama, although it seems the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has forgotten about that loss, but they have played a pair of scrimmages since that monumental upset. The Aggies have beaten Missouri, owner of perhaps the worst run defense in modern SEC history, and a South Carolina team starting a graduate assistant at quarterback. I know this is a dangerous exercise, but if we ignore those two games, the Aggies have been outgained by about 0.60 yards per play in their other three SEC games (6.21 to 5.61). Are we really sure Zach Calzada is going to cover more than a field goal against a surging Auburn? I have my doubts. After the reprieve of facing Missouri and South Carolina, the Aggies face two ranked teams down the stretch (Auburn and Ole Miss) as well as a tricky finale on the road against LSU. Since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012, the underdog is 5-4 straight up and 6-2-1 ATS in this series. Plus Texas A&M has not beaten Auburn in College Station as an SEC team. Look for that trend to continue with Auburn springing the upset. 

Mississippi State +4.5 Arkansas
I think a portion of this number can be traced to last year's result. The residue of that upset is still in the market. Let me set the scene for you. Mississippi State was ranked sixteenth in the country and fresh off a beating of the reigning national champs. The Bulldogs were hosting Arkansas, a team led by an unknown first year head coach that had lost twenty straight SEC games. Mississippi State outgained Arkansas by over 100 yards, but committed four turnovers, including an interception that Arkansas returned for a touchdown that provided the winning margin in a 21-14 upset. After the upset win, Arkansas was more competitive in SEC play, but only won two additional games. They opened 2021 with four consecutive wins, including upsets against former Southwest Conference rivals Texas and Texas A&M. However, the schedule stiffened and the Razorbacks have only beaten Arkansas Pine-Bluff since the calendar flipped to October. Mississippi State struggled after the loss to Arkansas, scoring sixteen total points over their next three games. The team improved later in the year as freshman quarterback Will Rogers gained experience in the the Air Raid. That improvement has continued in 2021. Outside of a poor showing against Alabama, Rogers has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game but one and is completing over 75% of his passes. Arkansas won last year's game against a team implementing a brand new offense over a volatile, pandemic impacted offseason. That will not be the case in this matchup. Plus, the Razorbacks are in a relatively unfamiliar position. Between 2017 and 2021, they were underdogs in 35 consecutive conference games. They finally broke that streak last month when they were favored by four and a half points against Auburn. They lost. Arkansas is a team you want to back in the underdog role (10-4 ATS under Sam Pittman), but they have not been favored enough to recommend backing them in that spot. This line should be closer to a field goal, so grab the extra value with Mississippi State. 

Florida Atlantic +1.5 Marshall
Conference USA has an intriguing race in the East division that is set to play out over the course of November. We'll ignore Middle Tennessee State for the moment since they are probably not very good (despite their victory against Marshall), but Florida Atlantic, Marshall, and Western Kentucky will stage a round robin tournament over the next month that will go most of the way toward determining the division champ. Round one commences Saturday in Boca Raton. The Owls and Thundering Herd have combined for ten wins this season, but they have feasted on bad competition. Florida Atlantic has beaten four FBS teams that have combined for a 13-19 record, with UTEP representing their best win. Likewise, Marshall has four FBS victories. The four teams they have beaten have combined for a 7-25 record, with their season-opening victory against an improving Navy team (that is still just 2-6) likely representing their best win. I expected a tight line when perusing these spreads, but I think the wrong team is favored. Florida Atlantic is unbeaten at home under Willie Taggart, and has not lost in Boca since Marshall beat them there in 2019 (won eleven in a row). I expect the Owls to get a leg (or wing) up in the conference race on Saturday. 

Washington +7 Oregon
Despite a disappointing season that has included a home loss to Montana, Washington still has a chance to win the Pac-12 North. If they manage to upset the Ducks in Seattle (and assuming Oregon State wins at Colorado), the division would have four teams tied atop the standings with identical 4-2 records. The question is, do they have the goods to beat the Ducks? The Huskies have won four of six since their 0-2 start, with both losses in that span coming by a touchdown or less. The defense has remained one of the best in the Pac-12, holding conference opponents to just a shade over five yards per play. Unfortunately, the offense has been neutered, never scoring more than 24 points in regulation in conference play. If the Ducks get out to a big lead, you can toss this ticket in the trash. Washington will not be able to stage a rally. However, I don't think Oregon will be able to get out to a big lead. In their five conference games to date, the Ducks have trailed at the half in two of them and led by three in another. They did hold multi-score leads against Arizona (+14) and Colorado (+17), but I'll pause and let you check the Pac-12 standings to see where those two teams are. Against the competent teams they have played thus far, the games have been tight. And while Washington is not the national contender they were thought to be in the preseason, they are competent. Washington has not been this large a home underdog since 2014 during the first season of the Chris Petersen era. Washington will keep this one close and may end the Pac-12's playoff hopes before mid-November. 

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