Last Week: 4-3
Overall 41-36
Western Kentucky -10 Florida Atlantic
When it comes to making picks, I am pretty averse to laying double digits. However, in this instance, I can't figure out why this line is not at least two touchdowns. Western Kentucky has quietly won five in a row after a 1-4 start and has scored at least 42 points in five of their six conference games (they only managed 34 in the other). The offense, particularly the passing side, is fantastic. Bailey Zappe has thrown 42 touchdown passes and Jerreth Sterns has an absurd 111 catches. The defense is nothing special, but should be able to get stops against an FAU offense that has not shown up against good teams on the road. The Owls put 38 on the board against a very bad Charlotte defense, but in their other four road games (Florida, Air Force, UAB, and Old Dominion), they have averaged under 13 points per game. For the season, they have decent per play offensive numbers in Conference USA, but that is heavily influenced by games against the aforementioned Charlotte and FIU (winless against FBS foes). In those two games, the Owls averaged a robust 8.98 yards per play and scored 96 points. In their other four conference games, they averaged 4.81 yards per play and scored 71 total points. Even with a good defensive showing, Western Kentucky is getting to thirty. Can FAU get to twenty to cover? I don't think so. This one has blowout written all over it.
Boston College -1.5 Florida State
It is dangerous to oversimplify things, but I think in this case, it really is that simple. Without quarterback Phil Jurkovec, Boston College is one of the worst ACC teams this side of Duke. In four league games without their starting quarterback, the Eagles scored forty total points and four offensive touchdowns. In two conference games since Jurkovec returned from injury, the Eagles have scored 58 points and seven offensive touchdowns. I don't think this line is fully accounting for what the Eagles are with Jurkovec taking snaps. Jurkovec does not play defense and the Eagles have certainly had their issues on that side of the ball (fifth worst per play defense in ACC play), but their offense is good enough to win a shootout. Florida State is 1-6 straight up on the road under Mike Norvell and has covered as a road underdog just two times in those seven games. In fact, this represents the smallest road spread they have faced under Norvell. They have typically been catching double digits (five times). If Boston College wins, they should cover this small number.
Illinois +12.5 Iowa
Don't look now, but Bret Bielema has quietly built a quality defense in Champaign. After fielding very bad defenses during his final few seasons at Arkansas (his last two teams both allowed more than 30 points per game), Bielema selected Ryan Walters to be his defensive coordinator. Not only has Walters coordinated a better than average Big 10 defense, his former employer (Missouri) has fallen off a cliff defensively since he left. The Illini allowed 101 points in their first three games, but following the loss at Virginia where they allowed 42 points to the Cavaliers, the Illini have stiffened. They have allowed 115 points in their past seven games and have held six of those seven opponents to twenty points or fewer (only Wisconsin eclipsed twenty).Couple that solid defense with a struggling Iowa offense and you have a recipe for a low scoring affair. The oddsmakers agree, setting the over/under at 38.5. With an over/under that low, it will be hard for Iowa to get margin. The over/under implies a score of about 25-13 and I don't think Iowa will be able to do their part. If Illinois can get to ten points, they should cover this number.
Virginia +14.5 Pittsburgh
Is Pittsburgh the best team in the ACC? Probably. Does that mean I trust them in any way to cover a big number in a conference game? Absolutely not. While the Panthers are statistically speaking, the best team in the ACC, not all best teams are created equal. To quote Dave Matthews, they are the best of what's around. They are not in the same class as the past few Clemson teams and should not be treated as such by the oddsmakers. Remember, this team has already lost twice at home as a large favorite, including once to a MAC team. Virginia has a bad defense and scored just three points in a showcase home loss to Notre Dame last week, but they were without quarterback Brennan Armstrong. His status for this game is still up in the air, but I think the Cavaliers held him out last week since it was not a conference game. Despite four total losses, Virginia has only lost twice in the ACC and can actually get to the ACC Championship Game if they win their final two against Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. Pittsburgh has struggled as a home favorite under Pat Narduzzi, posting a 7-10-1 ATS record in ACC play and they have never covered as a double digit home conference favorite (0-3). Take the Cavaliers to keep this one close and don't be surprised if the ACC Wheel of Destiny makes an appearance Saturday afternoon.
UAB +4.5 UTSA
The battle of acronyms in Conference USA will most likely decide the west division. A UTSA win will clinch the division for the Roadrunners while a victory by UAB will put the Blazers in position to win their fourth consecutive division crown if they can also beat UTEP in an acronym under card next week. Unfortunately for Conference USA, this marquee game will be given the ESPN+ treatment. The conference's television deal is a disaster (last week's marquee game between UAB and Marshall was at least on CBS Sports Network) which is probably why it is being held together with duct tape and rubber bands. But I digress. If you happen to have an ESPN+ subscription or know someone who does, tune in. UTSA is ranked, but UAB has been better on a per play basis (in conference play). The Blazers have allowed under four yards per play to their conference opponents this season and have been great as a road underdog under Bill Clark. Against fellow Group of Five opponents, the Blazers are 10-3 ATS with nine outright victories! UTSA has had a dream season, but I think UAB is in position to upset the Roadrunners and seize control of the division race.
Louisiana-Lafayette +4.5 Liberty
Liberty is 7-3 this season after posting a 10-1 record and top twenty finish in the AP Poll last season. Hugh Freeze is doing a great job of using the Flames as a stepping stone to get back to the SEC. Grift recognize grift. However, the Flames have built their solid 2021 record on a weak schedule. Using ESPN's FPI as a metric to rate teams, Louisiana-Lafayette is the second best team the Flames will have faced this season.
They have beaten up on bad Conference USA and Sun Belt teams. The Flames were legitimately impressive last season, beating two ACC teams on the road and nearly beating a third before upsetting unbeaten Coastal in the Cure Bowl. The Flames do have a somewhat impressive road win against UAB, but otherwise their victories have been lackluster, and they somehow lost to Louisiana-Monroe as a massive favorite. The culprit for their decline is the offensive line which has allowed 38 sacks this season. Only five teams have allowed more. Louisiana-Lafayette isn't great at rushing the passer, but they do have 26 sacks on the season (tied for 34th nationally). They should get to Malik Willis a few times and stall out some Liberty drives. Plus, while the Ragin' Cajuns already have their half of the Sun Belt locked up for the fourth straight year, Billy Napier is also auditioning for bigger jobs, so they should be motivated to win this late season non-conference game and maintain their national ranking. Under Napier, the Ragin' Cajuns are 5-1-1 ATS as a road underdog against Group of Five teams with three outright wins. I think they get their fourth in Lynchburg.
Cal-1.5 Stanford
Why is this line so low? I think Cal should be favored by at least a field goal despite travelling to Stanford for The Big Game. The rivals managed to squeeze the game in last season despite the abbreviated schedule. Cal lost a heartbreaker thanks to a missed extra point. The Bears head into this game off an embarrassing loss to Arizona and a Covid-related postponement against Southern Cal. The loss to Arizona, while embarrassing, can be mostly blamed on Covid. The Bears were missing a lot of their roster and Arizona still had to sweat out a win at home. Most of those players are expected to be back this week, so if Cal is at full strength, or at least a partial approximation of it, they should handle Stanford. The Cardinal somehow managed to take down Oregon almost two months ago, but have not won since, dropping five straight. Their defense has been particularly ghastly in the losing streak, allowing nearly 34 points per game and 6.7 yards per play. With seven losses, the Cardinal are out of bowl contention, while Cal still has a faint shot at bowl eligibility. Cal should bounce back after their Covid struggles and win their fourth game of the season.
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