The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII

Two good weeks in a row and three out of four. The yearly numbers are not quite as bad and there is an outside shot we could get back to .500. Again, that's far from a successful season, but better than it looked a month ago. 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 39-44-1

UTSA +3.5 Tulane

In a weird scheduling quirk, both of these teams are unbeaten in AAC play, yet neither has clinched a spot in the conference title game. The winner will obviously punch their ticket and the loser still has a snowball's chance (would need SMU to lose to Navy). Both the Roadrunners and Green Wave won their respective leagues last season, with UTSA beating North Texas in their final season in Conference USA and Tulane knocking off UCF on their way to an eventual upset of Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl. UTSA dropped off everyone's radar when they began the season 1-3. Elderly quarterback Frank Harris was dealing with some injury issues, but once conference play began, the team rounded into form. All but one of their league wins has come by double digits. Meanwhile, Tulane has the better overall record, but they have been far from dominant. Four of their league victories have come by a touchdown or less. Tulane and UTSA have faced five common league opponents. Tulane has outscored those five opponents by 40 total points. UTSA has outscored those same opponents by 89 total points. Despite the venue, I think the wrong team is favored here. Take the Roadrunners to win a third consecutive league title. 

Oregon State +13.5 Oregon

Before I dive into some reasons for backing the Beavers in this spot, I want to breakdown why I think the line itself is wrong. Indulge me. Last week, Oregon State was a slight home favorite against Washington. Once we factor in homefield advantage, that would mean the betting market views Washington and Oregon State as roughly equals on a neutral field. We'll give Washington the benefit of the doubt since they are unbeaten and Oregon State has a great homefield advantage and say they are two points better than Oregon State in the betting market. Six weeks ago, Washington and Oregon played a classic in Seattle with the Huskies winning 36-33. Washington was a slight favorite in that game, implying the betting market viewed Washington and Oregon as equals. If Washington and Oregon were roughly equals in the betting market and Washington was rated slightly higher than Oregon State, how is Oregon (with homefield advantage) rated nearly two touchdowns ahead of Oregon State? Using basic logic, I think there is value in this number. And that is before you consider the fact that this is a rivalry game (perhaps the last iteration for some time) and Oregon State's great run as an underdog under Jonathan Smith. Under Smith, the Beavers are 13-6 ATS (10-3 since 2019) as a road underdog and 8-4 ATS (6-1 since 2019) as a double digit road underdog. Oregon blasted the Beavers by 40 in Smith's first season (2018), but since then the games have been decided by an average of seven and a half points. Despite the loss to Washington last week, I expect Oregon State to be motivated. They can even keep the Ducks out of the Pac-12 Championship Game if they win and Arizona wins their Territorial Cup clash with Arizona State. This is too many points, so take the Beavers to get a dam cover. 

Ohio State +3.5 Michigan

This is the first time Ohio State has been an underdog in the regular season since Ryan Day became head coach. The Buckeyes have been underdogs on four occasions in the College Football Playoff, posting a 2-2 ATS mark. With apologies to Iowa, this has the feel of a College Football Play-In Game, with the winner getting in and the loser needing some chaos to sneak in. A similar scenario presented itself last season with both teams also entering with unbeaten records. Michigan won, but Ohio State managed to get in after Utah blasted Southern Cal in the Pac-12 Championship Game. That Ohio State team was better offensively with quarterback and future NFL star CJ Stroud leading the attack. The defense was a little leaky and that manifested itself in this game as the Wolverines gained over 250 yards on the ground and averaged over seven yards per carry. The script has been flipped this season. Ohio State's offense is not nearly as explosive despite the presence of Marvin Harrison Jr. But the defense is allowing under ten points per game. No team has scored more than 17 points against that unit. Interestingly, both defenses in this game had their worst point total showing against Maryland. The Terps scored 17 against Ohio State and 24 against Michigan last week. Michigan has the better defense by points per game, but Ohio State has faced a more difficult schedule, with Notre Dame serving as a great out of conference data point (something Michigan does not have). And while Ohio State's quarterback (Kyle McCord) was thought to be the weak link a few weeks ago, Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy has looked mortal the past two weeks against Penn State and Maryland. I think the last two weeks have sort of exposed the Wolverines. They are still one of the best teams in college football, but I think Ohio State is better, so I will take the points.  

Pittsburgh +6 Duke

Were I a Pitt fan, and believe me, I have enough problems as it is, I would be questioning where this new quarterback has been all season. Nate Yarnell got the start against Boston College and played well. Granted, it was at home and the Eagles have arguably the worst defense in the ACC, but his numbers were fantastic compared to the other two scrubs the Panthers have run out there this season. Phil Jurkovec and Christian Veilleux combined to complete barely half their passes this season. That might be acceptable for a triple option team or an NFL quarterback in the 1970's, but its downright horrible in 2023. Only four teams have a worse completion percentage than the Panthers. Yarnell's play gives the Panthers hope for the future and makes them an ideal team to take catching a touchdown against a team that appears to have run out of steam. Duke lost quarterback Riley Leonard to a gruesome injury in their fifth game against Notre Dame. Leonard missed just one game, but was ineffective upon his return and has not played in a month. His backups have not inspired much confidence either. Since Leonard's injury, the Blue Devils have lost four of six games, and outside of their overtime tilt with North Carolina, have averaged under twenty points per game. As I repeat often around these parts, its hard to cover when you can't score. Finally, one additional reason to back Pitt is head coach Pat Narduzzi's success against the Blue Devils. Under Narduzzi, the Panthers are 7-0 against Duke with four of the wins coming in Durham and three of those road victories coming as an underdog. 

Old Dominion -3 Georgia State

I faded Georgia State a few weeks ago when they were hosting Appalachian State because it appeared they were headed in the wrong direction. The Panthers began the season 6-1, but have lost four in a row and are in danger of ending the regular season on a five-game skid. What has happened? The schedule has toughened up. Georgia State began the season with games against Rhode Island (FCS), Connecticut, and Charlotte. Connecticut is 2-9 with one victory against an FBS opponent and Charlotte is 3-8 with two wins against FBS teams. In Sun Belt play, two of their first four games were against Marshall and Louisiana-Lafayette, two teams that are 5-6 heading into the final week of the season. They did beat Coastal Carolina on the road, but the Chanticleers are not what they were under Jamey Chadwell. Since beating Louisiana-Lafayette to get to 6-1, the Panthers have faced two of the best teams in the Sun Belt (Appalachian State and James Madison), a non-conference game against LSU, and their in-state rival Georgia Southern. Meanwhile, in Norfolk, Old Dominion is looking to double last season's win total and get to a second bowl game in three seasons under Ricky Rahne. The Monarchs have been nothing if not exciting in 2023. Nine of their eleven games have been decided by a touchdown or less. That includes games against an awesome James Madison, an ACC team (Wake Forest), and something called Texas A&M Commerce. In Sun Belt play, Old Dominion has outgained their opponents by more than half a yard per play (+0.59) while Georgia State has been outgained by more than a yard per play against Sun Belt foes (-1.20). That alone makes Old Dominion the play to cover this small number and get to bowl eligibility. 

Auburn +14.5 Alabama

When a team is embarrassed like Auburn was last week in an humbling home loss to New Mexico State, you have to expect them to bounce back the next week. Prior to that perplexing loss to the Aggies, Auburn had won three in a row, with each victory come against an SEC opponent. While Auburn could easily have overlooked New Mexico State last week with Alabama on deck, the shoe is on the other foot this week. Alabama has a date with Georgia in the SEC Championship Game next week and while Nick Saban will undoubtedly try to keep them focused on the task at hand, I would not be surprised if they started slow. During his historic run in Tuscaloosa, Saban has had a tough time when his teams have traveled to Jordan-Hare Stadium. Alabama is just 4-4 straight up in Jordan-Hare despite entering as favorites seven times. Alabama is just 2-6 ATS in those eight games, covering with one of the best defenses of the modern era in 2011 and again in 2015 against a limited Auburn offense. This Auburn offense is similarly limited, but Alabama, while a championship contender, is not up to the standards of Saban's previous world-devouring squads. In addition, Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze had decent success against Saban when he was at Ole Miss. In five meetings with Alabama, the Rebels were 2-3 straight up and 4-1 ATS. Freeze has also been great as a home underdog in all of his previous stops (Arkansas State, Ole Miss, and Liberty), posting a 10-5 ATS mark, including 4-2 as a double digit home underdog. I wouldn't be shocked if Auburn was tied or leading at the half before Alabama was able to put them away by about a touchdown or so. 

Iowa State +10 Kansas State

Are you ready for Farmageddon? While these teams are not each other's primary rival (that would be the in-state Hawkeyes and Jayhawks respectively), this is still a fun underrated matchup. Kansas State is in an unusual role in this spot as they are laying double-digits against the Cyclones for the first time since 2014. Usually, the Wildcats are underrated by the betting market, but I think they are a little overvalued in this spot. The Wildcats are the reigning Big 12 champions, but this team is not quite up to the standards of last year's championship squad. That's understandable as Kansas State is a developmental program and does not feature a revolving door of five stars. Kansas State's biggest strength is running the football, which is something Iowa State should be able to hold in check. The Cyclones also have the pass offense to take advantage of a Kansas State defense that has put up solid overall numbers, but has really feasted on bad offenses and backup quarterbacks. Missouri, UCF, Texas, and Kansas all put up at least 27 points against this defense. Iowa State should come close to that number and I think they can hold the Wildcats to the low thirties. This one has close game written all over it.