Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 26-36-1
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Jacksonville State +15.5 South Carolina
If I had told you back in the summer that when these two Gamecocks got together, one of them would have exactly a single victory against an FBS opponent, you probably would not have been surprised. After all, Jacksonville State was beginning life as an FBS program and entered 2023 with meager expectations. Well, one of these teams does enter with exactly one FBS win, but it's probably not the team you were expecting. Six weeks ago, South Carolina beat Mississippi State in Columbia to improve to 2-2 on the year. Since beating the Bulldogs, the Gamecocks have dropped four in a row while allowing 146 total points. In fact, every FBS team with the exception of Georgia (go figure) has scored at least 30 points against this alleged SEC defense. Giving up a lot of points and struggling to run the ball (South Carolina averages under three yards per carry) is not a good recipe for covering a large spread. Jacksonville State is a surprising 7-2 in their first year as an FBS team, but that record is a more a function of an easy schedule (Conference USA is the worst FBS league), a good record in close games (3-0 in one-score contests), and a good turnover margin (+9). Still, the other Gamecocks have no bowl game or conference title to play for, so I expect them to be highly motivated playing an SEC team on the road. The other Gamecocks also pressure opposing quarterbacks well, accumulating 30 sacks on the season (13th nationally in sacks per game). And South Carolina has done a poor job of protecting Spencer Rattler, allowing 34 sacks on the year (128th nationally in sacks allowed). You can manually adjust those sack numbers a bit based on each team's respective schedules, but Jacksonville State pressures quarterbacks better than the average team and South Carolina protects worse than average. I don't think the FBS neophytes have the goods to win outright, but they should keep this close and with South Carolina's poor defense and lack of running attack to salt the game away, the back door will be wide open.
Virginia -2 Georgia Tech
Does it strike you as odd that Virginia, a team that is 2-6 is favored against Georgia Tech, a team that is 4-4? Same here. In situations like this, I think trusting the oddsmakers is a good idea. Georgia Tech has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Through eight games, the Yellow Jackets have beaten ranked (at the time) Miami and North Carolina teams while also losing at home by multiple scores to both Bowling Green and Boston College. Last week's victory against North Carolina was their third in a row against the Tar Heels and the scene in Bobby Dodd Stadium was electric. Can the Yellow Jackets build on that momentum and get one step closer to their first bowl bid since 2018? Under Brent Key, the Yellow Jackets have seven outright upsets including their most recent victory against the Tar Heels. Georgia Tech is 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS in their next game after pulling those upsets. Georgia Tech also has a poor track record in Charlottesville. In their previous nine visits to the commonwealth, they are 2-7 straight up despite being favored six times. Virginia is better than their 2-6 record and still has a remote chance to become bowl eligible by winning their last four games (three of which are at home). Take the Cavaliers to cover this small number.
Army +18.5 Air Force @ Denver
While not given the same pomp and circumstance as Army/Navy, this penultimate leg of the Commander in Chief's Trophy has been pretty competitive in recent years. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is 11-5 straight up against Army, but most of those victories came prior to Jeff Monken's arrival at West Point. The Falcons are just 5-4 against Army since Monken took over the Cadets and just 3-5-1 ATS, including 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite. The past five games in this series have all been decided by a touchdown or less with very low combined point totals. In the past five games, the teams have combined for an average of just 27 total points. If we get another low-scoring affair, it will be very difficult for the Falcons to cover this big number. This number seems too big, but using their respective performances this season, one can see why Air Force is such a prohibitive favorite. The Falcons are undefeated and potentially playing for a New Year's Six bowl game while Army is 2-6 and struggling offensively as they try and transition away from the traditional flexbone triple option. The Cadets have averaged just under fifteen points per game against FBS opponents this season and have been shutout twice. Despite their struggles, the series history suggests a close game and remember, Air Force struggled to put away a Navy team playing with their backup quarterback two weeks ago. The Midshipmen got an honorary backdoor cover when they scored late and for some reason went for two to blow the actual cover. But I digress. I think the Cadets drag Air Force into the muck and keep it close in a low-scoring game.
Vanderbilt +12.5 Auburn
After a 2-0 start, the Commodores have dropped seven in a row to clinch their third consecutive losing season under head coach Clark Lea and tenth consecutive losing season overall. Meanwhile, Auburn broke a four-game losing streak last week to move to 4-4 and put themselves in position for a bowl bid. These two teams occupy different divisions in the SEC and have not played regularly. They have only met four times since 2007, and the teams have split those four games with the home team winning each. The last three in this series (2007, 2008, and 2016) have all been decided by a touchdown or less and in their past six trips to Nashville, Auburn has only won by margin once (2003). Their other five trips to Nashville have either resulted in a close win (1991, 1993, 2001) or a close loss (2008, 2012). I expect more of the same on Saturday. Auburn has played three true road games all season and has scored a combined 42 points in those games. And two of those three games included trips to Cal (allowing nearly 34 points per game this season) and LSU (allowing nearly 27 points per game). Auburn's season high for points against a Power Five opponent came last week against Mississippi State (27). I expect Auburn's point total to be in the high teens or low twenties which will not be enough to cover this number.
Louisiana-Monroe +2.5 Southern Miss
I find it fitting that a few days before Halloween, the corpse of Southern Miss rose from the grave and put a scare into Appalachian State. The Golden Eagles had dropped six in a row heading into their game with the Mountaineers and had been outscored by 148 points in that six-game skid. Miraculously, the Golden Eagles remembered Frank Gore Jr. was on their team (at least until the fourth quarter) and gashed the Mountaineers. Southern Miss led by ten in the fourth quarter, but allowed three consecutive touchdown drives to eventually drop their seventh in a row. Do they have anything left with no bowl game to play for and is head coach Will Hall safe if they finish 2-10 or 3-9? Under Hall, this formerly proud program is 11-22 overall (8-22 versus FBS opponents) and 6-15 against conference foes. If Hall does survive the 2023 season, he will have to do some work in 2024 to remain employed. But I digress. Should the Eagles be laying points at home to a feisty Louisiana-Monroe team? The Warhawks have not fared much better than the Southern Miss in 2023, having lost six in row, but expectations were much lower in Monroe than Hattiesburg. These two teams faced off in the regular season finale in 2022 with Southern Miss needing a win to clinch bowl eligibility and Louisiana-Monroe playing for pride. The game was tied at ten in the fourth quarter, but Southern Miss scored the final ten points to become bowl eligible. This Southern Miss team is much worse and this Monroe team is at least as good and potentially better than last year's squad. Southern Miss shot their wad last week and I expect a flat performance on Saturday against the Warhawks.
Iowa State -2.5 Kansas
Fun fact. Iowa State and Kansas have not played in a bowl game in the same season since 2005. It makes sense when you think about it as neither team has an illustrious history of football success. If this game plays out as the oddsmakers expect, that streak is likely to end as Kansas is already bowl eligible and Iowa State needs but a single victory to get there. The Cyclones have quietly won four of five after a disappointing road loss to Ohio. Two of those victories came on the road, a place where the Cyclones have struggled since their run to the Big 12 Championship Game in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, Iowa State was 1-8 in Big 12 road games! Now they return home for the first time in a month looking to mount another darkhorse run to the Big 12 Championship Game. As you may have heard, Kansas is off a rather big victory of their own, knocking off Oklahoma for the first time since 1997. Can the Jayhawks come down from that high of knocking off one of the league's dominant programs and win a conference game on the road? I have my doubts. Iowa State has dominated this series in Ames, winning the past seven, with six of them coming by double digits. In addition, for all their success under Lance Leipold, Kansas has struggled as a road underdog, posting a 4-9 ATS record with all the covers coming when they were catching at least a touchdown. Iowa State will win this game by at least a field goal and continue their resurgence under Matt Campbell.
Boise State +3 Fresno State
While we were busy shoveling dirt on Boise's grave, we forgot to look at the conference standings. Yes, the Broncos have four losses, but three of them came in the non-conference. In Mountain West play, the Broncos are 3-1 and have ample opportunity to play their way into yet another Mountain West Championship Game. In addition, outside of their loss to an elite Washington team on the road, their other losses have all been close. UCF beat them on the Smurf Turf with a last second field goal. Memphis beat them by three thanks in large part to a blocked field goal they returned for a touchdown. And Colorado State beat them on a last second Hail Mary. Boise may not be a contender at the national level, but they are still plenty good to make a run at the Mountain West title. While Boise has struggled in close games, Fresno State has a horseshoe up their ass. The Bulldogs own four victories by a touchdown or less (against just one loss), including two consecutive close wins in league play to move them to 3-1. Rearrange a few of those close wins and losses for both teams and the perception around this game would be entirely different. Take away the Boise Hail Mary loss and flip one of Fresno's tight victories and I think the Broncos would be favored in their trip to Silicon Valley. As it stands, the Broncos are a value play catching three points.
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