First Half Point Differential: The 2023 Power Five

Two weeks ago, we looked at first half point differential in the Group of Five to try and identify some teams that might surprise and or disappoint us this season. This week, we do the same with the Power Five.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The 2023 ACC standings. 

1HPD in ACC play (title game excluded).

In a bit of a surprise, NC State and Virginia Tech came out on top in the 1HPD standings. Overall, the top of the ACC was pretty muddled, with thirteen points separating the top-ranked Wolfpack and fourth place Louisville Cardinals. At the bottom of the standings, Syracuse was one of five Power Five teams to finish at least 100 points in the red in 1HPD. 

Big 10

The 2023 Big 10 standings. 

1HPD in Big 10 play (title game excluded). 

Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State were clearly the three best teams in the Big 10 last season and they finished one, two, three in 1HPD as well. In fact, the top four teams in 1HPD were all from the Big 10 East. Iowa, the winner of the Big 10 West, was the only team from that division to finish with a positive 1HPD. 

Big 12

The 2023 Big 12 standings. 

1HPD in Big 12 play (title game excluded). 

Texas and Oklahoma were the top two teams in 1HPD, but Oklahoma State pulled off a slew of second half comebacks (more on that later) and waltzed to their second Big 12 Championship Game in three years. They lost for the second time, but at least this defeat was not heartbreaking. At the other end of the Big 12 standings, Baylor put up a 1HPD that was nearly twice as bad as the second worst team (Cincinnati). 

Pac-12 

The 2023 Pac-12 standings. 

1HPD in Pac-12 play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the final (for now) Pac-12 Championship Game. But as was the case in their regular season clash, the more dominant team failed to win. Oregon more than doubled up Washington in 1HPD, but dropped two tight games to the Huskies, keeping them out of the College Football Playoff. The two teams without dance partners after the destruction of the league (Oregon State and Washington State) both finished with positive 1HPD numbers. 

SEC

The 2023 SEC standings. 

1HPD in SEC play (title game excluded).

For the third year in a row, Georgia finished as the 1HPD SEC champ. However, their SEC-pacing numbers in 2023 were roughly half of their insane 2021 numbers (+161). And for the second time in three years, they dropped the SEC Championship Game to a statistically inferior Alabama. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Power Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Oklahoma State was the biggest overachiever of 2023 and one of the biggest 1HPD overachievers I have ever tracked. The Cowboys trailed at the half in six of their nine conference games, but managed to qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game (where they were mostly non-competitive). Alabama trailed at the half in three of their eight SEC games, including once by double digits, but the Tide were able to finish Nick Saban's incredible career with another unbeaten conference season. Florida State only trailed at the half in two ACC games, but their 1HPD was not befitting an undefeated conference season. Similarly, Washington only trailed at the half in two Pac-12 games, but outside of their shellacking of Cal (up 33 at the half), most of their league games were close at halftime. Iowa also trailed at the half in just two Big 10 games, but as you might have surmised from their aversion to offensive football, they never led by more than a touchdown at the half in any conference game. Stanford trailed at the half in eight of their nine Pac-12 games, including four times by double digits. The Cardinal were fortunate to get to two league wins, especially considering one involved a miraculous comeback at Colorado. Finally, Louisville trailed at the half in three of their ACC games, including twice by double digits, but managed to flip the script in the second half and qualify for their first ACC Championship Game. 

And now the underachievers. 

While their brethren in Seattle were the kings of clutch, Washington State could not close the deal. The Cougars were tied or leading at the half in five of their nine Pac-12 games, but finished with just two league wins. Auburn was either tied or leading at the half in five of their eight SEC games, but still managed to finish with a losing record. UCF's maiden foray into Power Five football did not go as planned. The Knights were leading or tied at the half in six of their nine Big 12 games, but managed just three league wins. Despite a 1-8 league record that ultimately ended the Tom Allen era in Bloomington, the Hooisers held halftime leads in three of their Big 10 games and trailed by single digits in four others. Blown halftime leads also ended the career of Jimbo Fisher in College Station. The Aggies held halftime leads in seven of their eight SEC games (with three being double digit leads), but could not finish with a winning conference record. 

Thanks once again for your continued patronage. I'll be back in a few weeks with a Vegas betting recap and then it will be time for the season to start. Hooray!

First Half Point Differential: The 2023 Group of Five

Happy Independence Day to those who celebrate! While baseball may still be the official national pastime, college football is what we hold near and dear to our hearts around these parts. And after a brief sabbatical, we return to our review of the 2023 college football season. This week, we will look at how each Group of Five conference played out in terms of First Half Point Differential (1HPD). As I have mentioned before, 1HPD is a very advanced stat. It tells us how many points a team either outscored or was outscored by their opponents in the first half of games. If you need additional background on this statistic, I invite you to look up each word individually. Why do we look at this stat? Its far from a perfect measure, but it can sometimes point us toward teams that are due for improvement or regression the next season.  In theory, teams that pull off a lot of second half comebacks might not be as fortunate the next season and teams that lead at the half, but can't quite close the deal might be better than their actual record. It helps guide some of my over/under win total bets, but your mileage may vary.

American Athletic Conference

The 2023 AAC standings.

1HPD in AAC play (title game excluded). 

The top two teams in 1HPD met in the AAC Championship Game, with the far more dominant team winning on their opponents homefield. Their bowl loss put a disappointing coda on their season, but SMU was a fantastic team in 2023 and probably deserved the G5 NY6 bid that ultimately went to Liberty.

Conference USA

The 2023 Conference USA standings.

1HPD in Conference USA play (title game excluded). 

In a bit of an upset, Western Kentucky, losers of three league games, edges Liberty to eke out the 1HPD crown. Unfortunately, they don't hang any banners for that. While Liberty went unbeaten in Conference USA play, their 1HPD was not historically dominant. In the Conference USA Championship Game, the Flames faced the fourth place finisher in IHPD, New Mexico State.  

Mid-American

The 2023 MAC standings. 

1HPD in MAC play (title game excluded). 

The MAC will be doing away with divisions in 2024, but they stuck with their antiquated structure in 2023. In the East, Bowling Green was a true feast or famine team. They led by double digits at the half in four of their eight conference games, and trailed by double digits in two others. Miami ultimately won the division (and the conference) despite a fourth place finish in 1HPD. Toledo ran away with the 1HPD crown and finished unbeaten in the regular season despite decent, but not great 1HPD numbers. 

Mountain West

The 2023 Mountain West standings. 

1HPD in Mountain West play (title game excluded). 

The league's hottest team (San Jose State closed by winning their final six conference games) finished tied with Wyoming atop the 1HPD standings. Wyoming's 1HPD was buoyed by their domination of Hawaii (+35 in that game and +27 in their other seven conference games). The Spartans also tied with Boise State and UNLV atop the league standings, but lost the tiebreaker and missed out on a Mountain West Championship Game appearance. 

Sun Belt

The 2023 Sun Belt standings.

1HPD in Sun Belt play (title game excluded). 

James Madison was ineligible for the Sun Belt Championship Game, but they ranked first in 1HPD. The Dukes also topped the Sun Belt charts in YPP margin. At the bottom of the league, Louisiana-Monroe nearly hit triple digits in the red in 1HPD. 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together in this post, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Toledo finished unbeaten in MAC play, but trailed by double digits at the half in two of their conference games. In their MAC opener, the Rockets trailed Western Michigan by ten, but came back to win comfortably. Then in their penultimate regular season game, they trailed Bowling Green by eighteen, but rallied in the second half to win by a point. Tulane also managed an unbeaten conference record despite trailing at the half in two of their league games. However, their deficits were much smaller (four and six points) than Toledo's. New Mexico State had their best season since the 1960s (and even beat an SEC team to boot), but their 7-1 league record was fraudulent. The Aggies trailed at the half in three of their conference games and were tied in two others. Jacksonville State also ran up an impressive record in Conference USA, despite middling 1HPD numbers. The FBS neophytes trailed at the half in four of their league games (three times by double digits). Miami, the team that beat Toledo in the MAC Championship Game, was also an overachiever relative to their 1HPD numbers. The Redhawks only trailed at the half in one MAC game (against Toledo), but they also led by a touchdown or less in three games. Liberty was yet another G5 team that finished unbeaten in league play despite not posting dominant 1HPD numbers. The Flames never trailed at the half in conference play, but they were tied twice and led by less than a touchdown two other times. 

And now the underachievers. 

East Carolina only led at the half in two of their conference games, but they never trailed by a margin befitting a team that won just a single conference games. They were tied at the half in one game and trailed by a touchdown or less in four others. Kent State finished last in the MAC in 1HPD, but they actually led at the half in two conference games despite finishing winless in league play. UAB led at the half in four of their conference games, were tied in another, and trailed by less than a touchdown in two more. The Blazers might be poised for a breakout season in Trent Dilfer's second year at the helm. Middle Tennessee State led at the half in five of their conference games, were tied in one, and trailed by a field goal in another. Rick Stockstill's loss might be Derek Mason's gain. Akron finished 1-7 in MAC play for the second consecutive year under Joe Moorhead. They also underachieved by a nearly identical amount last season. If Moorhead has designs on coaching a fourth season at Akron, the Zips better start holding onto some of these halftime leads. 

Thanks for reading. We'll be back in two weeks with a look at first half point differential in the Power Five.