The Magnificent Seven: Week III

Two winning weeks in a row. Despite the 4-3 record, there were quite a few stinkers. I think every underdog I backed that lost ended up losing by about sixty points. But this is a tough industry, so we'll take the winning record, stay humble, and try to make it three in a row this week. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 9-5

Cincinnati -2.5 Miami (Ohio)

Midway through the third quarter last week, Cincinnati fans were feeling good. Leading 27-6, they were about to knock off their former Big East rival Pitt for the second straight year and move to 2-0 in their second season under Scott Satterfield. From that point forward, the Bearcats were outscored 22-0 and left with a bitter loss to the Panthers. Having a game flipped from a sure win to a loss in a sport where you only get twelves games is massive. The Bearcats probably weren't real College Football Playoff contenders, but the difference between a 7-5 and 6-6 regular season is huge for morale and the general vibes of the program. If the Bearcats can rebound from that defeat, they have a chance to bank some wins before the schedule toughens. After Miami, they open Big 12 play with Houston and Texas Tech, two teams that have not acquitted themselves well in the early going. A 4-1 start before the meat of league play would cool Satterfield's seat considerably. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Bearcats did lose to Miami last season, their first loss in the series since 2005! Since Cincinnati graduated to the Big 12 last season, this is somewhat of a unique evet. It marks just the 22nd time a MAC school has hosted a power conference opponent in the College Football Playoff era (since 2014). How have those MAC teams fared in the previous 21 instances? Not great. MAC teams are just 4-17 straight up and 7-13-1 ATS. If we remove all the expected blowouts and focus only on situations where the MAC team was either favored or catching less than a touchdown, the numbers don't look any better. MAC teams are 3-7 both straight up and ATS in those expected close games. Ohio did beat Iowa State last season, which may be fresh in the minds of many gamblers, but that has been more the exception than the rule. In addition, while Miami is 5-4 ATS against Cincinnati under head coach Chuck Martin, all of those covers have been when the Redhawks were large underdogs (5-2 ATS when catching double digits). Cincinnati is out for revenge after last year's loss to the Redhawks derailed a promising 2-0 start. Back the Bearcats laying this small number. 

Central Michigan +20 Illinois

This is a prime letdown spot for the Illini after they upset a ranked Kansas team last week. The Illini played well defensively, holding the explosive Kansas offense to under five yards per play. Of course, the Illini did not do much on offense, scoring just one offensive touchdown against the Jayhawks. The going should be easier against a Central Michigan outfit that just allowed 52 points to Florida International. Of course, the Chippewas also turned the ball over six times, setting the Panthers up with plenty of short fields. Turnovers have a huge impact on an individual game, but they are hard to predict. It is unlikely Central Michigan commits another half dozen this week (if they do, I can assure they will not cover). As I mentioned in the opening sentence, this is a bad spot for Illinois. The Illini are off a big win and open conference play next week at Nebraska. Does a team that just lost by five touchdowns have their full attention? I don't think they do. Plus, since Bret Bielema returned to the Big 10, he has been great as an underdog, but awful as a favorite. In the regular season against FBS teams, Bielema's Illini are 4-10 ATS as a favorite and 13-7 ATS as an underdog. They have been particularly bad as a home favorite, posting a 2-10 ATS record. They have not been good against Group of Five opponents either. They are 1-4 ATS against the lower level of FBS, dropping a game to UTSA in 2021, and nearly losing to both Toledo and Florida Atlantic last season. Central Michigan is not as bad as they showed last week and will keep this one closer than three touchdowns. 

Boston College +16.5 Missouri

Most Missouri fans probably didn't think their season really started until the first weekend in October when they travel to Texas A&M. But thanks to the struggles of the defending ACC champs in Tallahassee, they get an early opportunity to 'show me' they are for real. The Tigers have not allowed a point through their first two games, shutting out Murray State and Buffalo. While the defense has been fantastic, the offense has been a bit underwhelming despite scoring 89 points. Quarterback Brady Cook has averaged under seven yards per pass (he averaged nine last season) and thrown just a single touchdown. The running game has picked up the slack, averaging over five and a half yards per carry. Still, the passing attack, particularly against such a light early schedule, has to at least be a minor concern. Boston College has also played well defensively, pitching a shutout of their own last week against Duquesne in a potential flat spot after beating Florida State in their opener. While the Seminoles are clearly better than the duo Missouri has played thus far, its an open question how good they are. There was some legitimate skepticism about the prospects of Boston College heading into the season as Jeff Hafley resigned to take an NFL assistant coaching position and the Eagles hired Bill O'Brien. O'Brien was mostly remembered as the head coach of the Houston Texas, but he also took on the unenviable task of replacing Joe Paterno at Penn State under less than ideal circumstances. Two games into his tenure at BC, no final verdict came be rendered, but its been a good start. Boston College was expected to finish in the lower reaches of the ACC, and their over/under win total was just 4.5. O'Brien has adapted his offense to the personnel at hand, running what is (in spirit) a triple option offense. The Eagles have run the ball 77% of the time through two games and that is the type of team you want to back when they are catching a lot of points. The clock should be running and possessions will be at a premium in this game. Plus, Missouri is in an unusual spot in this game. This is their largest point spread against a power conference opponent under Eli Drinkwitz. They have laid double digits five previous times under Drinkwitz against power conference foes (with four of those coming against Vanderbilt). They are 2-3 ATS in those games. That record is hardly reason to back Boston College, but shows that the Tigers have only been massive favorites against power conference opponents when facing truly awful teams (e.g. Vanderbilt). Take the Eagles to keep this one close. 

Pittsburgh +2.5 West Virginia

Maybe my preseason expectations are at play here (I am heavily invested in Pitt winning more than 5.5 games), but what has West Virginia done to warrant being favored in this spot? With a rowdy home crowd and visions of revenge, they generated less than four yards per play against Penn State. In Penn State's only other data point, they allowed a MAC school to score 24 points on them in one half at Happy Valley. Meanwhile, Pitt has shown a greta deal of offensive improvement, perhaps much to head coach Pat Narduzzi's chagrin. Narduzzi belongs in the NFL in the 1970s, when the forward pass and an up-tempo offense were an affront to wholesome American values. For the time being at least, Narduzzi has allowed new offensive coordinate Kade Bell to throw the ball and play faster than usual. The Panthers also have one of the more unsung versatile players in college football. Western Carolina transfer (he followed Bell, his offensive coordinator up to FBS) running back Desmond Reid topped 100 yards receiving and rushing last week against Cincinnati and also returned a punt for a score against Kent State. I'm glad these two teams are playing again after a decade long break. The Backyard Brawl is one of college football's best rivalries and I'm glad to be around to witness its renewal. Pitt is the better team, is playing at home, and catching points. With that trifecta, you have to back the Panthers. 

Tulane +14 Oklahoma

I have seen enough of Oklahoma through two games to not trust them laying a big number. The team looked fine on the scoreboard against Temple, amassing 51 points in an easy victory. But quarterback Jackson Arnold averaged under six yards per pass against the Owls and the Sooners as a whole generated under 400 yards of total offense. Then against Houston, the Sooners were outgained by nearly a full yard per play. The Sooners may well have a solid season in their first as an SEC school, but it will probably come courtesy of their defense. I think the offense has major problems as evidenced by their 108th national ranking in total offense. Need I remind you the Sooners have played a team that may finish 0-12 (Temple) and perhaps the worst power conference team in the nation (Houston). They have also benefited from a +7 turnover margin in those two games. That being said, turnovers would be the only reason I would be hesitant to back Tulane. The Green Wave are led by a redshirt freshman quarterback, Darian Mensah, who will be playing his first road game in a very tough environment. Despite solid numbers through two games, Mensah did turn the ball over twice in their loss last week to Kansas State, including a lost fumble that was returned for a touchdown when he tried to do too much on a play where he should have just taken the sack. Still, the Green Wave probably outplayed a power conference opponent (albeit at home) and have a second shot at getting a statement victory to put themselves in the discussion for the College Football Playoff. Head coach Jon Sumrall has been fantastic as a road underdog, posting a 5-1 ATS record in the role at his previous head coaching stop (Troy). An inexperience quarterback in Norman scares me, but this Oklahoma team does not have the offense to cover this number without a heaping helping of turnovers. 

East Carolina +2.5 Appalachian State

East Carolina has one of the weirder statistical profiles in the country. The Pirates are 2-0 (with one of the victories coming on the road) despite a turnover margin of -6. If the Pirates end the regular season with a margin of -36, they will probably not finish 12-0. Quarterback Jake Garcia has thrown seven interceptions despite a solid completion percentage (nearly 65%). I would bank on his interception percentage regressing toward a more normal rate over the rest of the season. This is a big game for both schools with East Carolina looking to exceed last season's win total and Appalachian State looking to get last week's bad taste out of their mouths. The Mountaineers were pummeled in Death Valley 66-20 and Clemson probably could have scored 100 if they wanted to. Through two games, the Mountaineers have continued a troubling trend of not being able to stop the run. Last season opponents averaged nearly five yards per carry against them and while their performance against Clemson can be excused somewhat, East Tennessee State also gashed them on the ground in the opener. Last season, an East Carolina team with no offensive firepower (averaged under fifteen points per game against FBS teams) scored 28 on the Mountaineers in Boone. App has their conference opener a mere five days after this game against South Alabama. Their College Football Playoff hopes were basically dashed after last week's putrid showing. I expect them to focus more on the Sun Belt title than beating an in-state rival that is not really a rival. These teams have only played twice since App made the jump to FBS and have only played four times overall since 1980. The Mountaineers are also 4-11 ATS as a road favorite under Shawn Clark, losing eight of those games outright. Take the Pirates to pull of the minor upset. 

San Diego State +19 California

San Diego State has played one half of quality football thus far in 2024. They were shutout at home last week by Oregon State, gaining just 179 total yards. The week before, they trailed Texas A&M Commerce 6-3 at the half before finding their groove in the third quarter. They put up 42 points in the second half against a bad FCS team, but 14 of those points came courtesy of defensive scores. Now the Aztecs travel to the liberal bastion of Berkeley to take on a Cal team coming off one of the bigger wins of the Justin Wilcox era. The Bears won at Auburn last week as double digit underdogs, holding the Tigers to fourteen points and coaxing five turnovers out of them. On paper this is a mismatch, but let me give the reasons for backing this ugly dog. For starters, this is a major sandwich spot for Cal. The Bears beat Auburn last week and play their first ACC conference game next week at Florida State. Do the Aztecs have Cal's full attention? Maybe not. Secondly, Cal has posted a +7 turnover margin through their first two games. With that exceptional turnover margin, they have scored 52 total points. For all the (relative) success Cal has had under Justin Wilcox, scoring points has not been part of the equation. In 71 regular season games against FBS opponents, Cal has scored 30 or more points 18 times. They did do it six times in eleven games last season, but early returns have them back as a defense first team this year. Befitting a team that has trouble scoring, the Bears have also never covered a game as a double digit favorite under Wilcox, posting an 0-5-1 ATS record in the role. I know its scary to back a team that got shutout last week, but if the Aztecs can find a way to kick two field goals (or get three safeties), they should be able to cover this number. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week II

For the first time in years, we did not start the year in the hole. We'll try to grind out another winning week for you. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 5-2

Army +4 Florida Atlantic

I'm not sure why this number keep climbing. It opened with Florida Atlantic a small favorite and has now eclipsed a field goal. Perhaps folks only saw the final score of Florida Atlantic's opener, a 16-10 loss at Michigan State and assumed the Owls played well. As someone who watched the entire game, I can assure you, they did not. The Spartans only managed 16 points, but they were in position to score on several occasions. They committed three turnovers inside the Florida Atlantic red zone (a fumble, a pick, and a turnover on downs). Offensively the Owls struggled to move the ball in the passing game. Quarterback Cam Fancher, a Marshall transfer completed less than half his passes and averaged under five yards per throw. Fancher did have some nice runs, but overall he rushed for just 67 yards on 25 carries. His best plays were late slides where he drew some penalties on Michigan State defenders. That is probably not a winning long term strategy. Despite that poor performance, the Owls are a solid favorite against an unfamiliar service academy. The Owls have never faced Army and are 1-3 (both straight up and ATS) in a small sample against the other FBS service academies (Air Force and Navy). After a brief flirtation with the shotgun option, Army is back to being a true triple option team (with a little variation). That is what they should always be. Under Jeff Monken, the Black Knights are 10-7-2 ATS as a road underdog against non-power conference opponents. Meanwhile Tom Herman has burned up cash as a home favorite, posting a 10-20-2 ATS record in the role at three schools (Houston, Texas, and Florida Atlantic). In gambling, nothing is guaranteed, but this is the most confident I have been in a pick in a long time. 

UTSA +1 Texas State

After bad decade as an FBS team, Texas State enjoyed success under first year head coach GJ Kinne in 2023. The Bobcats won seven regular season games, qualified for their first bowl game, and dominated Rice in the First Responder Bowl. One season in, everyone is drinking the Kool-Aid. The Bobcats were the consensus (and near unanimous) favorite to win the Sun Belt West heading into the season. Their dress rehearsal against FCS Lamar was decent. Texas State led 18-0 at the half and were up double digits heading into the fourth quarter, but got a little bit of a scare in winning by just a touchdown. I wouldn't necessarily downgrade the Bobcats after that performance, but I also don't think they should be a favorite against the preeminent non-power program in the state of Texas. The Roadrunners began the Jeff Traylor era by winning in San Marcos during the pandemic impacted 2020 season. Including that game, UTSA is 12-2 straight up and 10-4 ATS against Group of Five teams from the state of Texas under Traylor. Like Texas State, the Roadrunners built a big lead in their opener, but got a bit of a second half scare before pulling away to beat Kennesaw State by twelve. UTSA is one of the best teams in the AAC and should not be catching points against a Sun Belt team with a lot of hype, but few good wins. The Bobcats have won eight regular season games under Kinne. Two of those victories have come against FCS opponents and the other six have all come against teams that failed to finish better than 6-6 in the regular season. The market is wrong about Texas State. Take the Roadrunners to zip past the Bobcats. 

Ohio +2.5 South Alabama

You shouldn't overreact to one game, but as someone holding a South Alabama over 6.5 wins ticket, I was nonplussed by their showing in the season opener. The Jaguars, who finished with the third best per play conference defense in the Sun Belt last season, allowed 52 points, 550 yards, and over seven yards per play to North Texas. I will point out the Jaguars also racked up nearly 600 yards of offense and averaged north of seven yards per play as well. However, a double digit home loss as a near touchdown favorite does not inspire a great deal of confidence moving forward. And forward we move, as the Jaguars head to Athens to take on the Ohio Bobcats. Ohio had a decent showing on the road against a power conference opponent, losing by 16 in the former Carrier Dome to Syracuse. The Bobcats struggled to contain the Orange, but moved the ball pretty well. Now the Bobcats come home, where they have been fantastic under Tim Albin. Longtime head coach Frank Solich retired suddenly in the summer of 2021 and Ohio underachieved, finishing 3-9 (1-5 at home) in Albin's first season. However, Albin has adjusted to the job the past two seasons, posting ten win campaigns in both 2022 and 2023, with just one home loss (to the eventual MAC champ) in that span. Under Albin, the Bobcats are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog with five outright wins. Contrast that with South Alabama head coach Major Applewhite. Applewhite's teams are 3-6 ATS as road favorites and until they prove that defensive performance was an aberration, should not be laying points on the road. 

Sam Houston State +22 UCF

One week into their second season as an FBS program, Sam Houston seems like they may have found a quarterback. JUCO transfer Hunter Watson looked the part in the opener, averaging over eight yards per pass and tossing two touchdowns. The Bearkats scored 34 points, which is tied for their second highest point total in thirteen games at the FBS level. A competent pass offense was the missing ingredient last season. The Bearkats averaged just twenty points per game in 2023. Despite their pedestrian offense, they still managed to cover games, posting a 6-3 ATS mark as an underdog. I expect that trend to continue this week as the market does not seem to realize how improved the Bearkats are offensively. They probably don't have enough firepower to win in Orlando, but I expect them to keep this one close. UCF has the name and coach recognition, although I would argue KC Keeler has a better coaching resume than Guz Malzahn. The Knights have not done well as a favorite (home or away) under Malzahn. Against FBS opponents, they are 8-16-1 ATS as a favorite (5-9-1 as a home favorite) and an even more disconcerting 4-7-1 as a double digit favorite (3-5-1 at home). This is also a bit of a lookahead spot as they open Big 12 play at TCU next week. I thought Sam Houston might be better this season and invested in an over play on 4.5 wins. I feel great about that bet at the moment, and expect another solid data point this week. 

Tulsa +7.5 Arkansas State

Looking to build off their first bowl appearance since 2019, Arkansas State nearly derailed their season against Central Arkansas of the FCS. The Bears are a decent FCS team, but they scored 31 points and averaged over seven yards per play against the Arkansas State defense. Defense has been an issue for the Red Wolves since the pandemic season. They finished second to last in per play defense in the Sun Belt in 2020, last in 2021, and eleventh (of fourteen teams) in both 2022 and 2023. That problem does not appear to be solved. And if a team can't play defense, you don't want to lay numbers with them. Tulsa may end up having a down year, but they did not struggle to put away an FCS team in their opener. Granted, Northwestern State is of a lower quality than Central Arkansas, but Tulsa put them away early and did not play with their food. Most troubling for Arkansas State fans is that the Golden Hurricane averaged nearly eight yards per rush in their opener. Meanwhile, Arkansas State allowed over seven yards per rush to Central Arkansas. That does not seem like a winning combination. I won't go as far as saying Tulsa should be favored, but I will point out Tulsa plays in the stronger league and obviously looked better in their first game. This is just the fourth time Arkansas State has been a home favorite against an FBS team under Butch Jones. This spread should be less than a field goal, so catching north of a touchdown is a gift from the gambling gods. 

Kennesaw State +15 Louisiana-Lafayette

The Owls from Kennesaw, Georgia had a rough start to their FBS lives, especially on defense. The Owls allowed UTSA to score touchdowns on their first three drives and fell behind 21-3 early in the second quarter. But from that point forward, they looked like a competent Group of Five team. They held the Roadrunners scoreless for their final three drives of the first half thanks to a fumble and a missed field goal, but really got their bearings in the second half, forcing four consecutive punts before getting the ball back in the fourth quarter down just five. A subsequent fumble gave the Roadrunners a short field where they eventually put the game away. After a tough road trip to the Alamodome, the Owls come back to Georgia for their first home game as an FBS program. They host a Ragin' Cajuns team that has struggled in the role of road favorite under third year head coach Michael Desormeaux (yes, I had to look up the spelling). Overall, Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-8 in true road games under Desormeaux and just 1-5 ATS as a road favorite with five outright losses, including two as a double digit favorite. We didn't learn a lot from the Cajuns first game as they dominated a mid-FCS team, beating Grambling 40-10. Meanwhile, Kennesaw State played well against one of the better Group of Five teams. I expected this spread to be closer to ten points and since it is currently north of two touchdowns, for the second weekend in a row, I'll take the Owls to cover a big number. 

San Jose State +5 Air Force

I expected a big drop off in 2024 from San Jose State. Last season, the Spartans rallied after a 1-5 start, rattling off six consecutive victories and nearly making the Mountain West Championship Game. They lost their coach and veteran quarterback and I figured there would be some growing pains. Its early, but the Spartans looked good against a quality FCS opponent in their opener. New quarterback Emmett Brown (who better go by 'Doc') threw for nearly 300 yards and the Spartans scored 42 points against Sacramento State (who beat Stanford last year by the way). Meanwhile, Air Force looked like the team dealing with growing pains. The Falcons also faced an FCS opponent (Merrimack), but they managed just 21 points and averaged only three yards per carry. For the uninitiated, Air Force typically dominates in the run game, having averaged over five yards per rush in each of the past five seasons. The Falcons did lose a lot from last year's team, so some regression was to be expected. As I mentioned previously, I don't like to overreact to one game, but Air Force's performance was troubling. Couple that poor offensive showing with the likely familiarity of San Jose State's new head coach (Ken Niumatalolo) with Air Force (former Navy head coach) and it makes me think the Falcons will have a lot of trouble moving the ball. I backed way too many underdogs this week, so some of them are bound to bust, but I have to take the Spartans catching nearly a touchdown.