The Magnificent Seven: Week VIII

Three winning weeks in four. Lets make it four of five.     

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 22-27

Central Michigan +3.5 Bowling Green

Last week Bowling Green pulled off a shocking upset in their I-75 rivalry with Toledo, but if you were paying attention to the recent history of that series, perhaps the result was not so shocking. Toledo has consistently been the best program in the MAC under head coach Jason Candle, but they have also consistently suffered an inexplicable loss (or two) each season. In Candle's nine and half seasons in charge, the Rockets have dropped nine games as a double digit favorite, including two this season to severely dampen their MAC title hopes. They have also struggled in the rivalry with Bowling Green. The Rockets have been favored in each of the past ten meetings, including nine times by double digits. However, they are only 6-4 straight up and 3-7 ATS. In other words, last week's upset was more about Toledo than it was Bowling Green. I'm sure the Falcon faithful are hyped to have a shot at a bowl game and a former Heisman Trophy winner patrolling the sideline. However, despite the Falcons 3-1 record against FCS and non-power conference teams, they have been outgained by more than 60 yards per game and nearly 0.7 yards per play. Off that emotional win, they must prepare for a team coming off a bye that is one of the more run oriented non-option teams in the country. Central Michigan runs the ball on 68% of their offensive snaps and against non-power conference teams, has done so with great success (over 250 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry). I think Central Michigan is primed to pull the upset, so you may not even need the three and a half points. 

Boston College -1.5 Connecticut

Boston College has dropped five consecutive games after opening the season with a victory over the Seven Blocks of Granite at Fordham. A brief glance at their remaining schedule reveals this may be their last chance for a win before the season finale against former Big East foe Syracuse. Two ranked teams are on the schedule (Georgia Tech and Notre Dame) as well as the past two ACC Championship Game losers (Louisville and SMU). Things are not going great for second year head coach Bill O'Brien. Can they get right against a fellow northeastern school? Connecticut is well on their way to a third bowl game in four seasons under head coach Jim Mora Jr. That is quite an accomplishment for a school that went nearly a decade as one of the worst teams in FBS. Despite their success under Mora, the Huskies have mostly buoyed their record versus non-power conference schools. In regular season games, they are 20-9 against FCS and non-power conference opponents. However, they are just 1-12 against power conference opponents, including an 0-8 record on the road. Their one victory against a power conference team? It came against Boston College in 2022. For that reason, and since Boston College has an unenviable remaining schedule, I think the Eagles will be ready for the Huskies. I expect a lot of points to be scored with these two teams mostly viewing defense as an optional portion of football. The betting market seems to agree (over/under is currently 59.5). With an expected high point total, Boston College should score enough to cover the small number. 

South Carolina +5.5 Oklahoma

This road trip to South Carolina (a team that was ranked thirteenth in the preseason AP Poll) represents a reprieve for Oklahoma from the rigors of their SEC schedule. Don't believe me, take a look. After their visit to Columbia, the Sooners remaining five games are all against teams currently ranked sixteenth or better in the AP Poll. Despite their defensive prowess under head coach Brent Venables, I would not expect much better than a .500 record the rest of the way. Oklahoma has played ten SEC games games since joining the conference. Chronologically, they have scored 15, 27, 3, 9, 14, 23, 24, 17, 24, and 6 points. I'll do the math for you. That is 16.2 points per game. And if you watched their most recent game against Texas, it does not appear that quarterback John Mateer is healthy. Mateer had surgery on his hand less than a month ago and as you may have guessed, surgery, no matter how minor, is not conducive to playing high level football. Mateer threw three interceptions against the Longhorns last week, and the team averaged under four yards per play and failed to reach 300 yards of offense. South Carolina has offensive problems of their own, having been outgained by South Carolina State earlier in the year, but the Gamecocks can rush the passer and cause havoc in the backfield. They also have good special teams, returning three punts for touchdowns thus far on the season. This figures to be an ugly game and as such, I like the underdog with great special teams to keep this close and potentially win outright. 

Kent State +26.5 Toledo

The Kent State Golden Flashes earned their first victory against an FBS opponent in nearly three seasons last week against Massachusetts. The winless Minutemen may well be the worst team in FBS, but Kent State dominated them in an easy 42-6 win. Can the Golden Flashes start an FBS winning streak against the most talented team in the MAC? I wouldn't back the Golden Flashes on the moneyline, but I think they can keep this one within four touchdowns. The Golden Flashes actually have a competent offense for the first time since Sean Lewis was in charge. In 2023 and 2024, they averaged just over fifteen points per game against MAC opponents. They have scored 70 total points as they have split their first two MAC games this season. Quarterback Dru DeShields has played well, averaging over eight yards per pass while throwing nine touchdowns through the first half of the season. The Golden Flashes also have a good kickoff return game, with the fantastically named Da'Realyst Clark having returned two kickoffs for touchdowns. Meanwhile the prohibitive conference favorite, Toledo, already has two conference losses and is coming off blowing a huge lead in a rivalry game to Bowling Green. How motivated will they be to run it up against Kent State? I think the Golden Flashes put up a fight, but ultimately fall to the Rockets. 

Ball State -1.5 Akron

Western Michigan put on a defensive clinic last week, limiting Ball State to 88 yards of total offense in a 42-0 shellacking. That continued an impressive trend for the Broncos who may well have the best defense in the MAC. Western Michigan is 3-0 in MAC play and has allowed just 16 total points. Fortunately for Ball State, Akron does not have the same defensive prowess and will be unlikely to put the clamps on them. Akron is 2-22 on the road under head coach Joe Moorhead and this is their smallest underdog role away from home (they were favored at Kent State last season). Akron does not stop the run, permitting over 200 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry to MAC foes this season (three games). Akron has had some limited success passing the ball and will hit their share of positive plays against a bad Ball State pass defense, but the Akron offensive line is weak (15 sacks allowed in their five games against non-power conference FBS teams) and quarterback Ben Finley is fully capable of an interception or fumble. Ball State defensive lineman Nathan Voorhis (distant cousin of Jason?) had three and half sacks in the Cardinals upset of Ohio two weeks ago. I expect he gets to Finley at least once and helps Ball State equal last season's win total. 

SMU +9.5 Clemson

The Mustangs have won nineteen consecutive (regular season) conference games stretching all the way back to 2022 (between the American and the ACC). I had to give the regular season qualifier as they famously clawed their way out of a big hole only to lose to Clemson on a last second field goal in the ACC Championship Game last season. To get to an even twenty, they will have to win at Death Valley, a place that only...checks notes...the last four power conference visitors have won. That's right folks, beginning with Louisville last season, Clemson has dropped four consecutive home games to power conference teams (South Carolina, LSU, and Syracuse). Despite those struggles, the Tigers are still being priced in the betting market like they were between 2015 and 2020. Victories against the very bottom of the ACC (North Carolina and Boston College) have made seemingly everyone forget what happened in September. For SMU, this marks just the second time they have been an underdog in an ACC game. The first came in their inaugural ACC road trip to Louisville last year. They entered as a touchdown underdog, but won by a touchdown. I think something eerily similar may happen on Saturday. SMU is not as good as they were last season when they rolled through the ACC unbeaten with just two victories coming by one score. However, Clemson is also not as good as they were last season. And in case you forgot, the betting line for last year's ACC Championship Game was SMU -3 on a neutral field. This line implies the difference between these two teams is roughly a touchdown in Clemson's favor on a neutral field. Has the combined rating for these two teams moved ten points since last December? I don't think so. Back the Pony Express and don't be shocked if they stretch their conference win streak to twenty games. 

Maryland +3.5 UCLA

If this game were played two weeks ago, what would the betting line have been? Maryland would have entered with an unblemished record and UCLA would have been winless and on 0-12 watch. Maryland by a touchdown? Has there been a combined ten-point swing in a fortnight? UCLA has obviously improved, knocking off Penn State and setting the stage for the Nittany Lions to fire James Franklin. They also traveled to Michigan State and knocked off the Spartans. Meanwhile, Maryland has dropped a pair of tight home games to Washington and Nebraska. The Huskies and Cornhuskers are a notch below the top teams in the Big 10 (Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon), but they have combined for a 10-2 record. In other words, both those teams are better than UCLA. I know the venue for this game is the Rose Bowl and not College Park, but this is an evening kick (7:00 EST), not a late night game, so while travel may be an issue, this game will not be kicking off at bedtime for the Maryland players. The betting market has moved too far toward UCLA. The Bruins don't get any pass rush (just six sacks all season), so winning (and covering) this game will be on the shoulders of the offense. Offensive coordinator Jerry Neuheisel has done no wrong in his first two games calling plays. I think regression comes for the Bruins and Maryland leaves the Golden State with their fifth win of the season.