The Magnificent Seven: Week IX

Four winning weeks in five. Lets make it five of six.     

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 26-30

Kansas State +3.5 Kansas

One item I look for when deciding on games that make the weekly post is spreads that are not in line with historical trends. This one fits that category quite well. Kansas has not been favored in this Sunflower Showdown since 2009 and they have not won in this series since 2008! Once Bill Snyder arrived in Manhattan, this series quickly became a battle of hammer and nail. Since 1989 (Snyder's first season), Kansas State is 29-7 straight up in this series. The Wildcats were 23-4 under Snyder (22-1 after a 1-3 start), 6-0 under current head coach Chris Klieman, and 0-3 under Ron Prince. 2025 has been a disappointing season for Kansas State, with the Wildcats sitting at 3-4 after expecting to contend for the Big 12 title. However, all four of their losses have come by six points or less and I expect another tight game in Lawrence. Catching more than a field goal, they are the play. 

Kent State +7.5 Bowling Green

Time to go back to the Kent State well. I backed the Golden Flashes last week as they faced the MAC's best team, Toledo. The stalwart underdogs jumped out to a 10-0 lead, but surrendered 45 consecutive points in a blowout loss. Despite the defeat, Kent State is far better than they have been the past two seasons when they did not record a single FBS victory. On the other sideline, Bowling Green actually beat Toledo two weeks ago, but followed that up with a home loss to Central Michigan. The Falcons have scored twenty or fewer points four times this season and have failed to top 28 points in any game. If they are unlikely to get into the thirties, Kent State should be able to hang around and cover this number. 

Ball State +5.5 Northern Illinois

Thomas Hammock has had a unique career at Northern Illinois to say the least. The former running back for the Huskies has been the coach at his alma mater since 2019 where he has finished winless and won the MAC in consecutive seasons. Since winning the conference in 2021, Northern Illinois is just 11-16 in league play, including a sterling 0-3 mark this season. The Huskies have not gotten their offense on track, as they are averaging just 12.3 points per game (11.2 versus FBS opponents) and have not scored more than 21 points in any game. Yet, here they are, laying more than a field goal against a Ball State team that has won three of five since an inauspicious beginning to the Mike Uremovich era. Uremovich also has some history at Northern Illinois. He was an assistant coach in 2012 (MAC title) and offensive coordinator in both 2017 and 2018 (MAC title). I think the Cardinals are poised to pull off the upset and win their fourth game of the season. Northern Illinois has been horrendous as a home favorite (and a favorite overall) under Thomas Hammock. They are 3-14 ATS as a home favorite against FBS opponents, having dropped ten of those games outright. I know it doesn't apply in this situation, but they are also 2-9 ATS as a road favorite, with seven outright losses. For those keeping track, they are 5-23 ATS as a favorite with an amazing seventeen outright losses! I've backed Ball State the past two weeks and they have split for me. As a wise man once said, two out of three ain't bad. 

NC State +6.5 Pittsburgh

Since benching Eli Holstein in favor of Mason Heintschel, the Pitt Panthers have won three in a row, while scoring 112 total points (at least thirty in each game). But let's consider the trio of teams they have beaten in that span. First up was Boston College. The Eagles are 1-6 and in real danger of finishing without an FBS win. Next, they won at Florida State. That win has also lost a little luster as the once promising season for the Seminoles has unraveled. Florida State has dropped four consecutive games and are in danger of getting their coach fired and potentially not qualifying for a bowl game. And their most recent victory came against a Syracuse team has struggled mightily since their starting quarterback went down. The Orange have dropped three in a row, failing to score twenty points in any game. NC State represents Pitt's stiffest test with Heintschel starting. The Wolfpack have a good quarterback (CJ Bailey), an explosive running back (Hollywood Smothers), and have played a strong schedule to date. The Wolfpack have beaten decent to solid teams (East Carolina, Virginia, and Wake Forest), played one of the better ACC teams tough on the road (Duke), and been blown out by a true national contender (Notre Dame). Their most recent data point was that road loss to Notre Dame which is inflating this spread. These two teams are midlevel ACC schools, both in recent history and this season. Pitt was able to rise above their station and win the league in 2021, but since then, they are 13-15 in ACC play and just 4-6 ATS as a home favorite against power conference teams. Doesn't this just seem like a game Pitt drops under Pat Narduzzi? The Panthers have won three in a row against less than stellar competition and NC State rolls in off a bye. I like the Wolfpack to keep this close and potentially win outright. 

Tulsa +5.5 Temple

I know a few years in college football can seem like a lifetime, but Temple used to be good at this sport. Between 2009 and 2019, under five different head coaches, the Owls finished with winning records in eight seasons, spent some time in the AP Poll, and even won a conference title. However, beginning with the pandemic impacted 2020 campaign, Temple had been a laughing stock for the previous half decade. The Owls finished with a single victory in 2020, and then won three games in each of the next four seasons. But, much like they did in the late aughts, the Owls seemed to have nailed their most recent coaching hire. KC Keeler won a pair of FCS national titles and guided Sam Houston State to ten wins in their second season of FBS play. Seven games into his career at Temple, he has already guided the Owls to four victories and has them in position to play in their first bowl game since 2019. The betting market seems to understand how good Keeler is. Between 2020 and 2024, the Owls were road favorites on just two occasions (versus Akron in 2021 and versus Navy in 2020). This marks the third time they have been a road favorite this season alone. In addition, the Owls won just one road game between 2020 and 2024 (the 2021 road trip to Akron). They have already won two road games this season. Can they make it a hat trick? Perhaps, but I think this number is a shade too high. Their previous road victories (and covers as road favorites) have come against two of the worst teams in FBS (Charlotte and Massachusetts). Tulsa has a bad record (2-5), but the Golden Hurricane have endured a tough American schedule, having faced East Carolina, Memphis, Navy, and Tulane during their 0-4 league start. Those four teams are a combined 22-5 overall (11-2 in American play). Temple is good, but should they be laying more than a field goal on the road against a competent conference foe? I say no. 

Washington State -1.5 Toledo

Washington State has dropped two tight games in a row to ranked power conference teams. In fact, the Cougars have played a relatively tough schedule overall. In addition to their two most recent games against Ole Miss and Virginia, the Cougars have played their annual Apple Cup clash with Washington and gone on the road to North Texas, a contender in the American. They dropped all four of those games, but their home blowout of San Diego State has aged well, with the Aztecs rolling off four consecutive wins since their loss on the Palouse. Now the Cougars come back home for the first time in more than a month and will face a MAC team for just the third time in school history. Toledo has made eleven Mountain Standard Time or Pacific Standard Time trips in the BCS/CFP era (since 1998). They are 3-8 on those road trips with five of the losses coming by double digits. Their three victories all came against Mountain West teams that finished with losing records (Wyoming in 2012, Nevada in 2017, and Colorado State in 2019). None of those teams are as good Washington State. Little was expected of the Cougars as they played a nomadic schedule in their second season since the (temporary) dissolution of the Pac-12. However, head coach Jimmy Rogers, winner of the 2023 FCS national title at South Dakota State, has the Cougars in position to qualify for a bowl game. The Cougars do not have a conference title to win, so the Rockets should have their full attention. Meanwhile, this game is effectively meaningless for a Toledo squad that has no hopes to qualify for the College Football Playoff and is behind the eight ball to qualify for the MAC Championship Game as well. Take the Cougars to easily cover this small number. 

Georgia Southern +1.5 Arkansas State

The Red Wolves from Arkansas State have been getting away with it lately. They have won their past two games each by a single point. Against Texas State, the Bobcats scored late, but missed an extra point and Arkansas State drove down the field to tie and then win with a made extra point. Then in a midweek game against South Alabama, the Jaguars were up two, but missed a short field goal allowing Arkansas State to drive down a kick a field goal of their own to win. The Red Wolves have struggled to move the ball and score points (except on the last drive of the past two games). They are averaging just under nineteen points per game against FBS opponents and have scored more than 21 points just once (the aforementioned victory against Texas State). Meanwhile, Georgia Southern entered 2025 with high expectations. The Eagles were the consensus pick to finish second in the Sun Belt East behind James Madison. They opened the season with a tough two game trip to California, losing to Fresno State and Southern Cal by a combined 67 points. However, since then, they have played much better ball. They beat Jacksonville State and dominated their in-state rival Georgia State, while losing a tight game to Southern Miss. James Madison handled them, but the Red Wolves are closer to their weight class as indicated by the spread. Georgia Southern is going to score (scored at least 35 points in four of their past five games) and I don't think Arkansas State can keep up. The wrong team is favored here.