YPP Throwback: The 2005 Sun Belt

This week, our YPP Wayback Machine takes us to 2005 and the SEC's little brother, the Sun Belt.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2005 Sun Belt standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each team. This includes conference play only. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

The 2005 Sun Belt was pretty compressed in regards to the actual standings and the YPP data. A trio of teams finished tied for first, but they were just three games better than the two teams that finished in the basement. The YPP numbers told a similar story. More on that in a bit.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games (or in this case seven). Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2005 season, which teams in the Sun Belt met this threshold? Here are Sun Belt teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

No team significantly over or under-performed in regards to their expected record, although Louisiana-Monroe came close. The Warhawks finished 4-1 in one-score conference games, but with a chance to lock up an outright conference title, fell to their arch-rivals by 33 points.

Weird and Bad
2005 marked the fifth year of existence for the Sun Belt as a football conference. While the league was new, it was in flux. The conference debuted in 2001 with seven members: Arkansas State, Idaho, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee State, New Mexico State, and North Texas. Those magnificent seven were either FBS newcomers or surviving members of the recently defunct Big West. In 2003, the league added Utah State, another Big West alum. In 2004, the league added three new members, with Florida Atlantic, Florida International, and Troy joining. The two Florida schools had just added their football programs in 2001 and 2002 respectively, while Troy was a Division II and FCS power looking to prove their bona fides with the big boys in FBS. After adding those three members in 2004, the league lost three in 2005, with Idaho, New Mexico State, and Utah State heading to (what appeared to be) a more stable conference in the WAC. Fifteen years later, the WAC no longer sponsors football, Idaho dropped down to FCS, and New Mexico State is a college football nomad playing as an Independent. I'm not here to criticize the decisions those three made, just give you some background regarding the environment surrounding the Sun Belt in 2005.

Perhaps due to the fact that four of its eight members had been playing football at the FBS level for less than a decade, the 2005 Sun Belt season was unique and for lack of a better descriptor, bad. We'll start with what made the conference unique and then touch on what made it bad.

Go back and take a look at the Sun Belt YPP numbers. Notice the top team (Arkansas State) posted a Net YPP of 0.89 while the worst team (North Texas) posted a Net YPP of -0.54. Since 2005, that is both the lowest Net YPP to lead a conference and highest Net YPP to finish last.

In fact, the 2005 Sun Belt is one of only two conference seasons since 2005 to have its top team finish with a Net YPP of less than 1.00 and its bottom team finish with a Net YPP of greater than -1.00. The only other conference to match that feat was the Sun Belt the very next year.

While the Sun Belt was unique in 2005, it was also really bad. Excluding the lone postseason game the league participated in (Arkansas State lost to Southern Miss in the New Orleans Bowl played in Lafayette thanks to Hurricane Katrina), here are the teams Sun Belt members beat in non-conference action.

OK, that's not entirely true. I did leave one victory out, but I did it for dramatic purposes. Outside of that one victory, which we'll get to in a minute, Sun Belt members beat five FCS opponents (including future Sun Belt member Western Kentucky) in 2005. That ain't good. And here are the teams they lost to, starting with the non-BCS conference teams.

Yikes. Collectively Sun Belt members went 0-9 against non-BCS conference opponents and lost by an average of more than 22 points per game. There were some decent performances, with Louisiana-Lafayette losing by a field goal to a solid UCF team, but there were also blowout losses to Army and Eastern Michigan as well as a loss to an FCS opponent. Things were not any better against BCS conference teams.

That's an 0-17 record with the average margin of defeat coming by 32 points. Obviously, some of those losses are expected (Texas and the SEC bloc), but Sun Belt teams were also non-competitive against some mediocre to bad Big 12 teams.

So who was the lone FBS program to fall victim to a Sun Belt opponent in 2005? It was actually a gut-wrenching loss preventing an SEC team from qualifying for their first bowl game in over two decades. That is none other than the Vanderbilt Commodores. I know Vanderbilt is typically at the bottom of the SEC pecking order, but they have actually been relatively successful over the past decade. They have qualified for five bowl games in the past ten years and actually finished in the final AP rankings in 2012 and 2013 under James Franklin. However, in 2005, Vanderbilt was far removed from even a moderately successful season. The Commodores were coming off four consecutive two-win seasons and had not finished with a winning record since their eight-win 1982 campaign. But it seemed like 2005 was the year for Vanderbilt to break that long losing streak. The Commodores had a senior quarterback who would go on to have a productive NFL and reality show career, as well as a few other future professionals. Playing in the SEC, the schedule would always be rugged, but the Commodores won their first two conference games (albeit against what would be the bottom tier of teams in the SEC West) as well as a tight non-conference game against their brothers in arms from the ACC. A tune-up against Richmond got them to 4-0 as the month of September came to a close. Entering the first weekend in October, the Commodores were actually receiving a few votes in the AP Poll (ranked 34th) and with winless Middle Tennessee State on deck, chances of pulling within one game of bowl eligibility seemed pretty high. The Commodores entered the game with the Blue Raiders as a two-touchdown favorite although some Vanderbilt fans had to feel a sense of unease as they had lost the previous two games in the series. You already know how this story ends. Middle Tennessee wound up winning despite gaining 209 yards of total offense thanks to a turnover (the only turnover in the game allowed the Blue Raiders to start a touchdown 'drive' on the Vanderbilt two-yard line), some chicken-shit playcalling by the Commodores (kicked a field goal from the Middle Tennessee two-yard line), a missed two-point conversion by Vanderbilt, and a blocked 36-yard field goal on the game's final play. The loss was the beginning of a six-game skid for the Commodores, although they did win their finale against Tennessee (first victory in that series since 1982) to keep the Vols out of a bowl game. I'm sure most Vanderbilt football fans (if any) were depressed after the 2005 season as they had blown what had been a great opportunity to get to a bowl game. Thankfully, it would only take three more seasons for them to return to the postseason. Much like 2005, Vanderbilt began the 2008 season 5-0 (and reached the top 25) before wheezing to the finish and losing six of their final seven games. They did pull off a minor upset in the Music City Bowl to finish with a winning record. So things worked out I suppose. Anyway, the point remains, despite being one of the worst FBS conferences of the modern era, the Sun Belt still managed to ruin the season of an SEC program in 2005.

Next week, we'll go back to the WAC as we close out the month of August.

YPP Throwback: The 2007 Western Athletic Conference

Our throwback series continues. This week, we take a look at the 2007 iteration of the Western Athletic Conference.

First, here are the WAC standings from 2007.

If the years sort of run together for you, 2007 was the year a WAC team went undefeated in the regular season and qualified for a BCS bowl game. But it wasn't Boise State. No, that was the previous season. 2007 was the year of the Hawaii Warriors. The most geographically isolated FBS team rode a soft schedule, (but challenging logistically - more on that later) to an undefeated regular season and who's to say what happened in the bowl game? 2007 marked the second of five straight years a team from outside the BCS conferences would qualify for a BCS bowl game.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each team. This includes conference play only. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

Hawaii and Boise State finished a combined 15-1 in WAC play and they were also the top two teams in Net YPP. At the other end of the standings, Idaho, New Mexico State, and Utah State all finished at least one yard per play in the red in Net YPP and the three also combined for a 3-21 record in conference play.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2007 season, which teams in the WAC met this threshold? Here are WAC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Fresno State significantly exceeded their expected record. The Bulldogs were only 2-1 in close conference games, but they also scored five non-offensive touchdowns while allowing none in their eight conference games. Non-offensive touchdowns are not predictive, but they can massively alter the win probability of a game. Meanwhile, Nevada and Idaho significantly under-performed relative to their expected record. Nevada, led by a soon to be famous (or infamous true freshman quarterback) finished 2-4 in one-score conference games while Idaho was 0-2 in such contests and had the worst in-conference turnover margin (-9) of any team.

Various and Sundry Musings on Hawaii
Hawaii finished unbeaten in the WAC in 2007 and that unbeaten record paved the way for the Warriors to play in the Sugar Bowl (to date only their second ever postseason trip to the mainland). In league play, the Warriors were dominant at home, winning their quartet of WAC homes games by a combined 71 points with the smallest margin of victory coming by seven points against Fresno State. However, their road trips were another matter. The Warriors beat Louisiana Tech by a single point in overtime (when the Bulldogs failed on a two-point conversion attempt), beat San Jose State by a touchdown in overtime, and beat Nevada by two points. You might expect this out of Hawaii since their travel is unique among FBS teams as they are isolated on some sort of land mass out in the Pacific Ocean. Hawaii was definitely better by Net YPP at home, but their road numbers were quite good.

If you have forgotten how the Net YPP shook out in the WAC and are too lazy to scroll back up, keep in mind their road number (+1.74) would have ranked first in the conference in 2007 even without their dominant home performance. In the interest of full disclosure, that road number is not unduly influenced by their beat down of Idaho. If we look at their other three road conference games (that they won by a combined ten points), their Net YPP numbers are still good.

Despite the fact that Hawaii was solid overall in their road games, they were usually digging themselves out of a big hole.

At home, the Warriors trailed a bad Utah State team in the early going, but had had built up an eighteen-point lead by halftime. They never trailed against either New Mexico State or Fresno State and while they fell behind Boise State 7-0, they had regained the lead by halftime and led the Broncos by double-digits for all of the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, on the road, they fell behind 14-0 to Louisiana Tech and needed a field goal with under two minutes left to force overtime. They blitzed Idaho from the opening kickoff, but were down double-digits to San Jose State in the first half and needed to score fourteen unanswered points in the fourth quarter to force overtime. Finally, while they were never down big to Nevada, they did need a field goal in the last half minute to pull that one out of the fire. Could the travel challenges be the reason Hawaii's output on the scoreboard failed to match their strong per play dominance in their road games? I think so, especially when you consider the San Jose State and Nevada games were short rest road games.

Hawaii played San Jose State and Nevada on Friday instead of Saturday in 2007. In the modern era of college football, this is not uncommon. There are typically a handful of games each Thursday and Friday and once the calendar turns to November, there might be games on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. However, what made those particular Friday night games unique is that Hawaii played both Friday road games six days after playing at home. Stating the obvious, this means Hawaii not only had less time to prepare, but also had the extra challenge of flying several thousand miles to the continental United States. Hawaii has played a short rest road game just nine times since the turn of the century and as you might guess, the results have not been great.

Hawaii is just 3-6 in those games, but the real story is the margin of defeat. Typically in short week road games, the Warriors have been pounded. The Warriors have been outsored on average by about 21 points per game. I'll also point out the Warriors are 3-3 in such games under June Jones and 0-3 when coached by anyone else.

Hawaii faced a very easy schedule (by strength of opponent) in 2007. There were two FCS teams on the slate, a bad UNLV team in the non-conference, a Power Five team that finished 4-9 (Washington), and eight mediocre to bad WAC teams. However, give the Warriors credit for pulling out those two short rest road games in a brutal scheduling spot. After their performance against Georgia (or lack thereof), some were of the opinion the Warriors did not deserve that BCS bid. On the contrary, with the logistical challenges Hawaii faces on the regular, along with the specific tough spots they were put in that season, I think an undefeated Warriors team was worthy of an opportunity to get the brakes beaten off of them by a motivated Georgia team.

In 2007, every conference did not have a championship game, but Hawaii was playing for their BCS berth on Championship Saturday. The Warriors hosted the Washington Huskies and played like shit for the first quarter. The soon to be 4-9 Huskies jumped out to a 21-0 lead and led 28-7 mid-way through the second quarter. However, the Warriors cut the deficit to seven by halftime and shut out the Huskies in the second half to win 35-28. The win marked the seventh home victory by the Warriors under June Jones against a BCS conference opponent. In fact, the Warriors were a respectable 7-7 in home games against BCS conference opponents under Jones (including bowl games).

However, I think we should discard a few of those contests. For example, the Warriors opened the 2005 season against a Southern Cal team ranked first in the country and riding a twenty-two game winning streak. Should they really get a demerit for losing to that stacked team? I don't think so. If we remove the games against ranked teams, the Warriors were 7-3 in home games against BCS conference opponents under Jones. For a team that did not win a game the year before he arrived, that ain't half bad. I know his career fizzled at the end of his SMU tenure and he is probably most remembered by NFL fans for a sideline outburst by his starting quarterback while coaching the Atlanta Falcons, but his nine seasons in charge of the Warriors were a master class in rebuilding and maintaining at a tough place to win.

Next week, we'll examine the Sun Belt circa 2005. If you have any requests for this series, let me know in the comments.

YPP Throwback: The 2006 ACC

Greetings friends, since the college football season is looking less and less likely by the day, I have decided to post Yards per Play and Adjusted Pythagorean recaps of seasons gone by. This week, we look back at the ACC in 2006.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2006 ACC standings.

In case you have forgotten, 2006 was the year Wake Forest won the ACC for the first time since 1970. Obviously, when Wake Forest is winning the title, that is a reflection of the strength (or lack thereof) in the conference. When we get to the YPP numbers, you'll notice the Deacons were very fortunate to win not only the conference, but also their division as well. However, before we get to that, let me go through the sequence of events that conspired for Wake Forest to even win the Atlantic Division. You'll notice there was not a great deal of separation at the top of the division. Wake Forest finished 6-2 and a trio of teams finished a game behind them at 5-3. Of the Deacons six conference wins, four came by a combined seventeen points. the narrowest among them being the conference opener when they beat Duke (remember this is pre-Cutcliffe Duke) by a single point thanks to a blocked 27-yard field goal on the game's final play. They managed to beat two of the three teams that finished a game behind them (Boston College and Maryland), but lost to Clemson and needed the Tigers to choke the division away. And Tommy Bowden obliged. To go along with a blowout loss to Virginia Tech, the Tigers also gagged a pair of one-point losses to Boston College (thanks to a missed extra point) and Maryland (despite beating the Terps in yardage, penalties, turnovers, and time of possession). As for Boston College, the Eagles also dropped a pair of close games to give the division to the Deacons, losing to a bad NC State team and a Miami team that was about to fire Larry Coker. Once they won the division, the Deacons were fortunate not to have to play Virginia Tech (a team that had handled them in Winston-Salem in late November).  The Hokies closed the year as the hottest team in the ACC, allowing just 29 points in their final six regular season contests. Unfortunately, early season defeats to Georgia Tech and Boston College allowed the Deacons to face the more beatable Yellow Jackets. Keep in mind, this was before Georgia Tech instituted the triple option. The team did have Calvin Johnson, but Reggie Ball was his quarterback and Chan Gailey was his coach. A friend of mine in college once said those early to mid aughts Yellow Jackets were as enjoyable as taking The Eucharist. At the risk of eternal damnation, folks who watched the 2006 ACC Championship Game would probably agree. More on that later.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each team.This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

Wake Forest finished a distant eighth overall in Net YPP and just fourth in the Atlantic Division! Statistically, Clemson was the best team in the conference and the Tigers buoyed that argument by beating both division winners by a combined 34 points! Elsewhere in the conference, Virginia Tech boasted a vintage Bud Foster defense, allowing under four yards per play to ACC opponents. Alas, the offense, quarterbacked by Sean Glennon (Mike's older brother), held the team back. The Hokies lost three games overall in 2006, and in two of those games (Boston College and Georgia in the bowl) they held future NFL quarterbacks (Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford) to a 50% completion rate. This was truly one of the forgotten elite defenses of the mid-aughts.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2006 season, which teams in the ACC met this threshold? Here are ACC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

The two participants in the ACC Championship Game, as well as the team Wake Forest beat in a de facto Atlantic Division title game all exceeded their expected record. The trio combined for a sterling 13-1 record in one-score conference games (during the regular season) and were a perfect 12-0 in one-score games not involving each other. At the other end of the spectrum, Clemson and Florida State under-performed relative to their expected record and for Florida State, the reason was their close game performance. The Seminoles finished 1-4 in close ACC contests. However, for Clemson, nothing really stands out. The Tigers were not terrible in close games (2-2 record in the ACC) and their in-conference turnover margin was middle of the pack (+1). Nothing really stands out as to why the Tigers under-performed...other than head coach Tommy Bowden.

I only have YPP data for three full seasons of the Tommy Bowden era (2005-2007). In all three of those seasons, the Tigers finished no worse than third in the ACC in Net YPP and twice finished as the top team in the Atlantic Division. However, the Tigers never won the Atlantic and posted a rather middling 14-10 conference record in that span.

It probably won't surprise you to know that Clemson finished that three-year run with the worst average difference between their actual record and their expected record.

For reference, under-performing by .128 percentage points equates to about one full game over an eight-game conference slate. Think an extra win in either 2005, 2006, 2007 would have come in handy? Spoiler. It would. The Tigers finished a game back in the Atlantic each season. Thanks to that under-performance and a slow start in 2008, the Tigers canned Tommy Bowden. I suppose you can argue that things have worked out pretty well since then. In a nice coincidence, I actually attended the last game Tommy Bowden coached at Clemson. It ended up being a defensive battle (or clash of offensive ineptitude depending on your point of view) and looked a lot like the 2006 ACC Championship Game, which segues nicely into...

The Lowest Scoring Conference Title Games
The 2006 ACC Championship Game did not have any real national ramifications. Wake Forest entered the game ranked 16th in the AP Poll and Georgia Tech was barely holding on at 23rd. A slot in the Orange Bowl was up for grabs, but with the game kicking off at Noon in Jacksonville, most college football fans were probably only halfway paying attention. And once the game started, you couldn't really blame them. There was nary an offensive touchdown scored in the game, with Wake Forest outlasting Georgia Tech behind three Sam Swank field goals. Until 2018, this result stood as the lowest scoring conference championship game in FBS history.

It was undercut by the 2018 Pac-12 Championship Game in terms of total points, but Wake still has the distinction of being the lowest scoring winner of a conference title game. While this game rightly made the ACC and its nascent championship game a punch line for a few years, I was never prouder to be a Demon Deacon.

Thanks for reading. Next week, we'll look at YPP from 2007 in the Western Athletic Conference. If there is a conference you want to see examined via YPP or APR, let me know in the comments.

First Half Point Differential Part IV: Using 1HPD to Handicap Conference Title Games and the College Football Playoff

Is the title to this post too long? Yes, but I couldn't think of a better way to title it other than spell it out explicitly. For a primer on 1HPD, check the other posts in this series. It ain't that complicated.

I have 1HPD conference data going back six seasons to the beginning of the College Football Playoff era, so we might as well see if it provides any value in picking the winner (both straight up and Against the Spread) in certain postseason games. I didn't look at all bowl games since there can be varying levels of motivation in such contests. By contrast, conference title games and the College Football Playoff are practically guaranteed to have motivated participants.

Let's start by looking at the Group of Five. If you knew nothing else about the teams participating in conference title games and merely used 1HPD unadjusted for strength of schedule, you would have done pretty well in picking the outright winners and decent when going against the spread.

The MAC would have been responsible for nearly all of your losses at the window, with the lesser team winning half the time outright and covering five of six times. Otherwise, 1HPD is 16-2 straight up and 12-5-1 ATS in picking winners. Note there have been two Sun Belt Championship Games, but in the second game, both Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette entered with an identical 1HPD, so it is thrown out as ties have not been a part of college football for a quarter century.

When we move to the Power Five, 1HPD does an even better job of picking winners against the spread.

In the Power Five, there are no MAC outliers dragging down the numbers.

Overall, in 51 conference title games 1HPD has correctly predicted the outright winner 39 times (76.5%) and ATS winner 31 times (62%) with one push. Not too shabby. But what of the College Football Playoff? Alas, the predictive accuracy is not as strong.

1HPD has been as reliable as a coin flip both straight up and ATS in College Football Playoff games. Note one game is not included as I use 1HPD in conference play and Notre Dame does not belong to a conference (yet). One potential reason for 1HPD's underwhelming performance in the College Football Playoff versus conference title games is the fact it is not adjusted for opponent. The College Football Playoff features teams from different conferences (usually) instead of teams from the same conference. Schedule strength between two teams from different conferences has the potential to be much greater than schedule strength between two teams from the same conference (duh). That being said, the way 1HPD has performed in handicapping conference title games gives me confidence it is a solid measure of team strength.

We'll be taking a little break here at Statistically Speaking, but we'll return in three weeks (the first Thursday in August). Instead of any previews or gambling nuggets related to the 2020 season, I am operating on the assumption the 2020 season will not be played. Coronavirus numbers are simply too high to justify endangering an unpaid labor force and the testing required to put on a season (even an abbreviated one) would sap testing resources from communities that need them. Let me be clear, I am not a journalist and do not have sources other than what any person with a television set, internet connection, or podcast subscription has. With the 2020 season unlikely to be played, I will focus my efforts on Yards per Play and Adjusted Pythagorean Record recaps of seasons gone by. I have been making YPP and APR posts for the past five seasons, but I have ten years worth of data that has not been given any type of write up (2005-2014). My first YPP flashback will be on a conference season near and dear to my heart, the 2006 ACC. My alma mater ended up winning their first conference title in over three decades and likely the only title in my lifetime. I have some other conferences and years lined up, but I wanted to get an idea of what my readers want. I know there are at least a few folks who find their way here on a regular basis, so let me know in the comments what conference and year combination you would like to see recapped in either YPP or APR. I feel like it is going to be a long time before we can enjoy a beautiful fall Saturday, so in the meantime, let's relive some from the recent past.

First Half Point Differential Part III: The Power Five in 2019

Last week we looked at 1HPD in the Group of Five. This week we examine 1HPD in the power conferences.

Beginning alphabetically as we always do, here are the ACC standings from 2019.

And now the IHPD with conference rank in parentheses.

Its a surprise to no one that Clemson was head and shoulders above the rest of the ACC. The Tigers 1HPD of +182 is more than the combined 1HPD of the other seven teams that finished with a positive differential (+144). However, the Tigers did not lead at halftime of every conference game. They were tied with North Carolina in a game they eventually won by a single point. Speaking of the Tar Heels, while they enter 2020 as the favorites in the Coastal Division, they were actually in fifth in the division in 1HPD and Duke was not very far behind them. Chaos always seems to reign in that half of the ACC, so don't assume Mack has a cakewalk to the ACC Championship Game.

Moving on to the Big 10 standings.

And the Big 10 1HPD.

Ohio State was the only Power Five team to lead at the half in all their conference games (and they played nine lest we forget). The Buckeyes also managed to lead by double-digits at the half in each of their Big 10 games! Wisconsin put up a fight in the conference title game, but that is still quite a feat. On the other end of the spectrum, in a shocking development, Maryland actually finished with the worst 1HPD! While the Terrapins did beat Rutgers (and led by twenty at the half), they trailed by double-digits six times in conference play (Rutgers trailed by double-digits seven times).

Next up is the Big 12.

And the Big 12 1HPD.

Despite Oklahoma and Baylor finishing with two conference losses between them, the Sooners and Bears were hardly dominant. The Big 12 was the lone Power Five conference to not have a team finish in triple digits in 1HPD. If the 2020 season is played, we should have a helluva race in flyover country. Just 38 points separated the third place team (Oklahoma State) from the eighth place team (Texas Tech) in 1HPD. Add to that the fact the ninth place team (West Virginia) is likely to improve in Neal Brown's second season and the perennial punching bag at least showed flashes of competency last season (and is coached by a national champion). I wouldn't go so far as to predict Oklahoma failing to qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game for the first time since its reinstatement, but a title game pitting Iowa State and TCU wouldn't be the most shocking development.

Here are the Pac-12 standings.

And the Pac-12 1HPD.

While the Big 12 had no dominant teams, the Pac-12 had no true dregs. Arizona brought up the rear, but the Wildcats 1HPD of about negative eight points per game was the best of any last place finisher in the Power Five (NC State was second at negative twelve). Oregon had the lowest 1HPD of any Power Five champion. In fact, the Ducks did not lead at the half in four of their nine conference games. By comparison, the other four Power Five champs did not hold a lead five times (out of 34 total conference games).

Finally, here are the SEC standings.

And the SEC 1HPD.

I know its fun to hate on Alabama, but don't go throwing dirt on the Tide just yet. Alabama was nipping at the heels of LSU in 1HPD and if we look at the other seven conference games both teams played, Alabama actually had a better differential (+137 to +113). Of course, that classic in Tuscaloosa does count and lets also give LSU credit for never trailing at the half in any conference game (they were tied against Florida and Auburn). In the East, Georgia finished with a healthy 1HPD margin over Florida and Kentucky and despite the relatively disappointing season, the Bulldogs led by double-digits six times in SEC play (tied with Alabama and LSU for the most double-digit leads).

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Power Five conferences are grouped together here, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Louisville beat one FBS opponent in 2018, but the Cardinals improved to seven regular season wins in their maiden voyage under Scott Satterfield. However, there are a few flashing warning signs if you expect continued improvement in 2020. Despite an 8-5 overall record, the Cardinals were actually outscored in 2019 and in ACC play, they trailed at the half five times. Despite a 5-3 conference record, their 1HPD ranked fifth in the Atlantic Division. NC State and Syracuse probably won't be as bad as they were last season and Florida State is likely to rebound as well. The Cardinals also retain two challenging non-conference games in 2020, as they travel to Notre Dame and host their in-state rival Kentucky. A return to bowl eligibility, even it it means a regression to 6-6 should still be seen as a success as the Cardinals try to move on from Bobby Petrino. A championship repeat by Oregon in the Pac-12 would be quite an accomplishment considering the Ducks lost their starting quarterback in the NFL draft and did not post numbers typically befitting an 8-1 conference record. Tennessee has been one of the hardest teams for me to get a read on this offseason. Were the Volunteers good in 2019? They closed the year on a six-game winning streak, beating three bowl teams in the process (Indiana, Kentucky, and UAB). Their YPP numbers were solid (fifth overall and third in the East). On the other hand, their APR numbers were much less glowing (ninth overall and fourth in the East). They also lost to Georgia State and were pounded by the three best teams on their schedule (Alabama, Florida, and Georgia beat them by a combined 82 points). And since when are Tennessee fans delighted by victories against Indiana, Kentucky, and UAB? Their 1HPD also shows them to be pretty weak. Despite winning five of their eight league games, they were outscored in the first half in conference play and actually trailed at the half five times, including four times by double-digits. The Vols do have the benefit of drawing Arkansas in their rotating cross-division game in 2020, but Alabama, Florida, and Georgia are still on the schedule as well as a non-conference trip to Oklahoma. 8-4 seems like the ceiling for this team with a real possibility of 6-6 or worse.

And now the underachievers.

Earlier I mentioned the Big 12 could have one of the more interesting conference races in the Power Five. Part of the reason for that is because teams like the Red Raiders and Horned Frogs are likely in store for some positive regression in 2020. Texas Tech and TCU combined to finish 5-13 in conference play last season despite outscoring their league foes by seven points in the first half. Those aren't great margins, but are more indicative of a .500 level conference finish. So in effect we have two middling Big 12 teams that were led by a first year head coach and a true freshman quarterback respectively. Both those conditions are often marked by initial inconsistency and then marked improvement as time goes on. Keep an eye on both in the Big 12 race. The only other Power Five team to significantly under-perform relative to their 1HPD was Washington State. In Mike Leach's final season on the Palouse, the Cougars lost twice as many conference games as they won despite outscoring their nine Pac-12 opponents in the first half. The Cougars fielded a very bad defense in 2019 that kept them from closing games. That defense has almost no choice but to improve in 2020. The turnover at the top is always a concern, especially at a locale that does not recruit well, but Washington State can expect to extend their bowl streak to six years in 2020.

Thanks for reading. Check back next Thursday when we see how well 1HPD has done in handicapping conference title games and the College Football Playoff.

First Half Point Differential Part II: The Group of Five in 2019

Last week I introduced the nuanced and complex statistic of First Half Point Differential (1HPD) with a promise to examine the 2019 college football season through that lens. I keep my promises roughly half the time, so enjoy this review of Group of Five conference play from 2019.

American Athletic Conference
Like we always do, we'll start with a look back at the 2019 AAC standings.

And now we'll look at how the conference stacked up in terms if 1HPD in league play (conference rank in parentheses).

The first thing that jumps out is the two best teams by 1HPD did not win their respective divisions. UCF outscored their conference opponents by nearly 100 more points in the first half than the eventual East division winner (Cincinnati), but lost a tight game to the Bearcats and also dropped another close game to Tulsa. The Knights led both games at halftime by the way (by six and eleven points respectively) before frittering away the leads in the second half. However, despite losing a conference game for the first time in nearly three years, the Knights were still a dominant force in the AAC. In the West division, Memphis and Navy finished tied atop the division, but the Tigers won the head to head matchup (despite trailing at the half) and thus the tiebreaker. Elsewhere in the conference, the departing Huskies finished dead last in 1HPD, but they did lead at the half against Temple in the season finale. That marked the first time they led at the half against an AAC foe since 2017. That also happened to be their last conference win. Of course, they went on to lose to the Owls by 32 points.

Conference USA
The CUSA standings.

And the 1HPD.

Lane Kiffin's parting gift for FAU was a second conference title in three seasons, but the Owls were not nearly as dominant in 1HPD as they were two years ago. In 2017, they outscored their eight league opponents by nearly twice as many points (+121) in the first half of games. Out West, UAB won their second consecutive division title, but the Blazers actually finished just behind Southern Miss in 1HPD. The Eagles had the division in their talons after beating UAB by the odd score of 37-2, but dropped their final two conference games to Western Kentucky and FAU (a pair of East division foes) to give the division to UAB.

Mid-American
The MAC standings.

The MAC 1HPD.

Did the wrong team win? Despite a 1HPD that was nearly double that of the second best team in the conference, Buffalo did not even win the East division. The Bulls opened conference play with back-to-back losses to Miami and Ohio, but were dominant down the stretch, save for a wild comeback by Kent State. The Bulls actually led at halftime in all eight of their conference games, something no other Group of Five team can boast.  At the other end of the spectrum, Akron did not win a game (in conference play or otherwise) and their 1HPD was indicative of that performance.

Mountain West
Here are the Mountain West standings.

And the Mountain West 1HPD.

Boise won the conference and had the best 1HPD. The interesting thing about the Mountain West is that every team in the Mountain Division, with the notable exception of New Mexico, finished with a positive 1HPD. In the West Division, Hawaii was the only team to finish with a significantly positive 1HPD (Fresno State was slightly above water at +6). With such a scoring imbalance, it probably won't surprise you that the five teams from the Mountain Division not named New Mexico went 13-2 against the West, with both losses coming to San Diego State.

Sun Belt
Finally, the Sun Belt standings.

And the Sun Belt 1HPD.

The two best teams in the conference won their respective divisions and met in the league title game. I was a little surprised at Appalachian State's 1HPD. I figured they would have been more dominant considering they are arguably the best Sun Belt team of all time and the first to finish the season ranked.

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together here, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

Cincinnati had a great shot at winning the AAC, holding a lead against Memphis in the AAC Championship Game with under five minutes to play, until the Tigers prevailed. The Bearcats have won 22 games over the past two seasons, but can probably expect some regression in 2020. In Conference USA, a pair of first year coaches exceeded expectations. Will Healy guided the 49ers to the first bowl game in school history and Tyson Helton helped the Hilltoppers get back to the postseason. However, I wouldn't fancy either of these teams as contenders in the East this season. The 49ers were outscored in the first half of their conference games and Healy has a history of regressing after breakthrough seasons. He followed up an eight-win campaign at Austin Peay with a losing record. Meanwhile, despite Helton's background as an offensive coach, the Hilltoppers were led by their defense in 2019. A losing season by either or both in 2020 would not be that shocking. Air Force rebounded from back-to-back losing seasons and featured perhaps the best team of Troy Calhoun's tenure. However, despite cresting, the Falcons were unable to wrest the division away from Boise State and I wouldn't expect them to be able to in 2020 either. Finally, elsewhere in the Mountain West, Nevada managed to qualify for a second consecutive bowl game despite very bad first half numbers. The Wolfpack trailed by double-digits in half their conference games. Despite upheaval within the division (four of the six teams are breaking in new head coaches), I expect Nevada to finish with a losing record in 2020.

And now the underachievers.

Houston underachieved in the AAC, spoiling Dana Holgorsen's debut. It should be noted they still put up solid first half numbers despite the absence of quarterback D'Eriq King for seven of their eight conference games. King won't be back in 2020, but his backup earned valuable experience. Despite winning double-digit games for the third consecutive season, UCF actually underachieved in 2019. The Knights are the favorite heading into 2020, not just in the AAC, but also in terms of finishing as the highest ranked Group of Five team. In Conference USA, Rice actually outscored their opponents in the first half despite posting a losing league record. A tough non-conference schedule with games against Army, Houston, and LSU could keep the Owls out of the postseason, but if you are looking for a sleeper to win a wide open Conference USA, the Owls are a fine pick. Their in-state brethren have won just two games over the past three seasons, but I expect the Miners to dig deep and get to at least three wins in 2020. As I mentioned previously, Buffalo was arguably the best team in the MAC last season which is something considering the talent they lost to the NFL and the transfer portal. If the 2020 season is played, the Bulls will be the best MAC team since Western Michigan in 2016. Colorado State and Fresno State both finished with losing conference records despite outscoring their opponents in the first half. And both now have new head coaches stepping into good situations. Finally, South Alabama has a chance to make a third year leap under Steve Campbell after posting decent numbers hardly befitting a 1-7 outfit.

As always, thanks for reading. We'll be back next Thursday with a look at 1HPD in the Power Five. Enjoy the 4th and wear a damn mask.

First Half Point Differential Part I: An Introduction

The primary reason I started this blog nearly fifteen years ago was to make predictions. In that decade and a half, I have made a lot of them. Some good, and some not so good. In my never ending quest to make better predictions, I try to think of stats that can identify teams poised for positive and negative regression. My offseason posts on Yards per Play (YPP) and the Adjusted Pythagorean Record (APR) are two that I am quite proud of. I don't want to spoil the rest of the post, but I think I have found another: first half point differential.

So what is first half point differential (1HPD)? Unlike advanced stats, it is easy to define and calculate. It is simply the scoring margin (positive or negative) in the first half of a game. In the 2019 College Football National Championship Game, LSU led Clemson 28-17 at the half. The 1HPD for LSU was +11 and -11 for Clemson. Simple stuff. With more than ample time on my hands, I calculated the 1HPD for all FBS teams in conference play back to the first season of the College Football Playoff (2014). That is six seasons worth of data. What did that data show? I thought you would never ask.

For starters, 1HPD in conference play is positively correlated to a team's conference record. In fact, with an R squared value of .72, the correlation is stronger than YPP in conference play (which surprised me). So if 1HPD has a strong correlation with conference success, what happened to those teams that saw their expected record based on 1HPD differ significantly from their actual record? Wow, its like your reading my mind.

For YPP, I consider a difference of .200 between actual and expected record significant, so I used the same logic here. Between 2014 and 2018 101 FBS teams saw their actual record differ significantly from their expected record. 52 teams under-performed relative to their expected record and 49 exceeded their expected record. Those teams that under-performed tended to see their conference record improve the next season.

The average team improved by 1.41 wins in conference play and nearly 70% of the teams improved by at least one win.

On the other hand, the teams that exceeded their expected record more often than not declined the following season.

The average team won about 1.80 fewer games the next season and more than three quarters of the teams declined by at least one win.

It certainly appears 1HPD is a solid way to identify teams that might regress or rebound the next season. Intrepid readers might recall the title of this post and wonder what comes next. Well, next Thursday, I'll give you a rundown of the 1HPD for Group of 5 teams from 2019 and try to identify some teams to watch assuming we have a season in 2020. In two weeks, we'll look at the Power 5 and then in three weeks we'll see if 1HPD can be used to handicap conference title games and the College Football Playoff. Stay tuned!

2019 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Sun Belt

Last week we looked at how Sun Belt teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2019 Sun Belt standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Sun Belt teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as an arbitrary threshold to determine if a team significantly over or underperformed relative to their APR. By that standard, Arkansas State significantly exceeded their APR. The Red Wolves finished 4-1 in close conference games, meaning eighty percent of their league wins came by a touchdown or less. South Alabama significantly undershot their expected record based on APR. They also underperformed relative to their expected record based on YPP and we went over some reasons for that last week.

Paul Petrino: The Sun Belt Savant
Even hardcore college football fans may have a hard time recalling Paul Petrino. They are probably intimately familiar with his brother, but like Bill Dooley, Paul is often overshadowed by his sibling. This is doubly true now that Idaho has dropped down to the FCS level. Despite the fact that Idaho no longer plays in the FBS, I like to highlight forgotten or overlooked greatness on this blog, and Paul Petrino's Against the Spread (ATS) record in the Sun Belt is one for the ages.

Before we dive into Petrino's ATS mark as head coach of the Vandals, here is a quick history of Idaho's nomadic existence since they returned to FBS in 1996. The Vandals played in the Big West for five seasons (1996-2000) before becoming a charter member of the Sun Belt in 2001. They only lasted four seasons in the fledgling conference before joining the WAC in 2005. The Vandals stayed in the WAC until the conference dissolved following the 2012 season. They played as an independent for one season before rejoining the Sun Belt in 2014. After four seasons, they dropped down to the FCS level where they currently reside in the Big Sky Conference. Petrino coached the team for the entirety of their second run in the Sun Belt (and their one season as an independent). During those four seasons, the Vandals did not post a great Sun Belt record, finishing 13-19 in league play. They did win six games league games in 2016, but in the other three seasons, their conference record was 7-17. However, even though they weren't winning games on the field, they were cleaning up for those brave enough to bet on them in Sun Belt games.

From 2014-2017, Idaho posted a phenomenal ATS record of 24-8 in conference play. That was by far the best of any Sun Belt team in that span.

The Vandals were especially good on the road, failing to cover just once in an away conference game over those four seasons.

This amazing ATS run is likely just a lot of noise and randomness. Idaho was just 5-7 ATS in non-conference games over the same time period. I doubt Petrino had a horseshoe or other lucky trinket he deployed specifically for conference games. Still, this is further proof that amazing things happen all the time in college football if you know where to look. A coach with a receding hairline, a much famous older brother, and a career record of 28-55 was a veritable ATM for degenerates a few seasons ago.

That concludes our YPP and APR rundowns of the 2019 season. I hope we get to do this for 2020, but I have my doubts. As a resident of South Carolina, it pains me to say I have probably seen more folks with Confederate memorabilia than masks on my trips to the grocery and drug stores. Another spike in infections could certainly jeopardize the 2020 season, not to mention the health of many people in this nation. If we don't get a 2020 season, I think I will do weekly YPP and APR lookbacks at other seasons. I have only been doing them since 2015, so we missed out on a lot. Want to know how YPP saw the SEC in 2005 or how APR saw the Big East in 2007? If the 2020 season is canceled, that will be your consolation. In the meantime, content will be sporadic on the blog over the summer. I'm working on a few projects, so there will be posts, just not weekly. Check back every now and then, and as always, thanks for reading.