The Magnificent Seven: Week VIII

We were back to our regular 3-4 standard last week. The season is half over, so its time to make some progress on this record. Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 24-25

Eastern Michigan +2.5 Ball State

The past two weeks are a microcosm of what Eastern Michigan has become under Chris Creighton. Two weeks ago, the Eagles traveled to Kalamazoo to face Western Michigan as a small underdog. They crushed the Broncos. Last week, Eastern Michigan returned home to face Northern Illinois as a slight home favorite. They lost by four touchdowns. After two seasons bad seasons at the beginning of his tenure, Eastern Michigan has been competitive for seven years under Creighton (since 2016). In that span, the Eagles are a pathetic 3-10 ATS as a home favorite in MAC play with eight outright losses. However, as a road underdog against MAC opponents, they are 15-2 ATS with eight outright wins. I'm not sure if the betting market oscillates too far on their individual results or if the Eagles check out after big wins and check back in after unexpected losses, but this phenomenon seems to be real. I think it continues this week against a weak home favorite in Ball State. The Cardinals are just 5-10 ATS as a home favorite under Mike Neu and while they have won three in a row to get to 4-3 on the season, each win has come by less then a touchdown. Take the Eagles to pull another road upset. 

UCLA +6 Oregon

At 6-0 and ranked ninth in the latest edition of the AP Poll, UCLA has achieved their highest ranking since they rose to seventh in 2015. That season, after a 4-0 start, the Bruins split their final eight regular season games and following a bowl loss to Nebraska, finished 8-5. That marked the beginning of the end of the Jim Mora era in Los Angeles. The Bruins went 4-8 in 2016 and after a 5-6 start in 2017, Mora was canned and in 2018, the Chip Kelly era began. It took Kelly awhile to get the Bruins on the right track, but since the start of last season, they are 14-4 (9-3 in Pac-12 play) and humming on offense. Both the Ducks and Bruins are averaging north of seven yards per play in Pac-12 action (top two offenses), so yards should not be hard to come by. The over/under currently sits at 71, and while both these teams are certainly capable of getting to 35 apiece, that seems a little ambitious. While both teams have scored at least 40 in each of their conference games, I think the early part of this game will be like a heavyweight fight with both teams feeling each other out with jabs and counters. While Oregon has faced the more challenging schedule overall (remember their opener?), I think UCLA has been tested more in Pac-12 play (having vanquished both Washington and Utah). The teams are pretty evenly matched, so I like the fact the Bruins are catching nearly a touchdown. Kelly is 0-3 against his old team since returning to the college ranks, but the past two games in this series have both been decided by three points. I expect another close one on Saturday. 

Memphis +7 Tulane

Memphis could easily be 6-1 and on a six-game heater heading into this clash in New Orleans. Unfortunately, the Tigers blew a late double digit lead at home to Houston and then lost a toss up in overtime to East Carolina. Had a bounce here or there gone their way in either or both of those games, would Tulane be laying a touchdown? I doubt it. Consequently, I think you are getting some value on the Tigers. Tulane's defense is also probably a little overvalued. The Green Wave held East Carolina to nine points two weeks ago and the Pirates scored 30 points against Memphis in regulation last week. However, against Tulane, the Pirates missed a field goal, threw two interceptions, and were stopped on downs twice in Tulane territory. Meanwhile, against Memphis, the Pirates returned an interception for a touchdown and did not commit a single turnover. On a neutral field, I think this would be a pick 'em or Tulane would be a small favorite. The Tigers are getting too many points and I think Tulane may be reading their own press clippings. The Green Wave are ranked in the latest edition of the AP Poll. This is their first ranking since 1998! I think they suffer a bit of a letdown in a tight game.  

Wisconsin -2.5 Purdue

One of these teams is 3-1 in Big 10 play and tied for first place in their division. The other is 1-3 in the Big 10 and tied for last place. And of course, the team in last place is favored over the team in first. Gambling makes perfect sense! This is not a vintage Wisconsin team, but I like them in this spot for a few reasons. For starters, they have dominated this series. The Badgers have beaten Purdue fifteen consecutive times, with the last Purdue win coming in 2003. Twelve of those fifteen victories have come by double digits. Plus, if you look at yards per play numbers, Wisconsin has fared better than Purdue in Big 10 play. Both teams are being outgained on per play basis (Wisconsin by .49 yards per play and Purdue by .92). And that includes Wisconsin's loss to Ohio State. If we remove that game from their ledger, the Badgers are actually above water (+.17 yards per play) in the Big 10. I know arbitrarily removing games may not be the best way to handicap football teams, but Ohio State is clearly a cut above the rest of the Big 10 (except for maybe Michigan) this season. Purdue has won all their Big 10 games by one score and they have been getting torched by opposing passers (Big 10 quarterbacks have averaged 8.7 yards per pass against their secondary). Graham Mertz may finally deliver on his hype this weekend. Take Wisconsin to cover this small number. 

UTEP +3.5 Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic has won two road games since Willie Taggart became head coach in 2020. They beat winless Florida International in 2020 and Charlotte in 2021. Charlotte finished with a respectable 5-7 record last season, but their defense was among the worst in FBS. This season, the Owls have already dropped two games as a road favorite, allowing over 40 points to both Ohio and North Texas. They edged Rice last week in the 'Owl Bowl', but averaged under four yards per play and scored 17 points at home. UTEP is off a bye and is playing at home where they have been dangerous over the past few seasons. The Miners put up back-to-back 1-11 records in Dana Dimel's first two season in El Paso (2018 and 2019). In those two seasons, they were just 2-7 ATS as a home underdog with zero outright wins. However, since the start of 2020, they are 4-2 ATS as a home underdog with three outright wins. I think they make it four this weekend. 

Boise State +2.5 Air Force

A few weeks ago, it appeared Boise's run of Mountain West domination was over (I know the Broncos didn't even win their division, much less the conference last season, but Boise is the most well known Mountain West program and they have four titles since joining the league in 2011). The Broncos were 2-2 with non-competitive road losses to Oregon State and UTEP. The Broncos had scored six touchdowns in their first three games against FBS opponents and looked anemic on offense. Following the UTEP loss, they fired their offensive coordinator and installed former head coach Dirk Koetter as the interim OC. Koetter put a renewed emphasis on the running game and the Broncos rolled up over 600 yards on the ground in their next two games at over six and half yards per clip. Now Boise is 3-0 in the Mountain West and a game clear of Wyoming and Utah State in the division. Meanwhile, Air Force, a team with plausible designs on an unbeaten season, is 2-2 in league play and their division odds are nearly dead. The Falcons have been a disappointment thanks to their poor rush defense. Their four Mountain West opponents have rushed for 138 yards per game and averaged nearly five yards per carry against the Falcons defense. That includes their most recent showing against UNLV and their backup quarterback. Take that game away, and their other three opponents have rushed for 164 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry! Air Force upset Boise on the Smurf Turf last season, but the Broncos have won the past two games in Colorado Springs and this marks the first time the Falcons have been favored against the Broncos. I think Boise has turned things around and will be able to handle a flawed conference opponent on the road. 

Utah State +4.5 Wyoming

He fooled us y'all. Despite his track record at Arkansas State, we panicked when Utah State struggled in the non-conference this season. Blake Anderson coached Arkansas State for seven seasons (2014-2020) and in that time, his regular season non-conference record was 11-15 (he even lost to an FCS team). Despite the routine rough starts, his teams went 38-18 once conference play started (36-12 his first six seasons). Last season, his first at Utah State, the Aggies went 3-1 in the non-conference and then rolled to a surprise conference title. This season, the Aggies struggled with Connecticut, got blown out by Alabama, and then lost at home to an FCS team (in blowout fashion). Two more losses followed as the Aggies dropped their conference opener to UNLV and then a rivalry game to BYU. However, the Aggies regrouped and have won two in a row over Air Force and Colorado State to move to 2-1 in Mountain West play. Now the Aggies have a chance to win their third in a row and even their overall record as they travel to Laramie to face Wyoming in Bridger's Battle. Wyoming has struggled to score for most of Craig Bohl's tenure when a certain NFL quarterback was not taking snaps for the Cowboys. In 2016 and 2017, when Josh Allen was the starting quarterback, Wyoming averaged nearly 30 points per game (29.9). in Bohl's other seven seasons in charge, the Cowboys have averaged almost exactly a touchdown less per game (22.8). Its hard to cover when you struggle to score. Take Utah State and points. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

With some good picks and a little luck, we finally posted another winning week. This moves our overall record back to .500. Hopefully more good fortune is in store. Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 21-21

Coastal Carolina -11 Old Dominion

Last week, in my write up of the Coastal/Louisiana-Monroe game, I mentioned Coastal is on a low-key incredible run of being favored in every game since their upset of BYU late in the 2020 season. I also noted the Chanticleers had not adapted to the role of favorite. Updating their ATS tally based on last week's results, Coastal drops to 7-12 ATS as a favorite since the streak began and 5-10 ATS as a double digit favorite. So naturally, they are the play this week. Unlike their previous large spreads, I think this one is actually warranted. Old Dominion has put up a good fight against their Power Five in-state opponents this season, beating Virginia Tech at home and narrowly losing to Virginia on the road. However, the Hokies and the Cavaliers significantly outplayed the Monarchs on a down to down basis, outgaining them by more than a yard per play (5.39 to 4.18). The games were close thanks to turnovers. The Monarchs forced eight in those two games while committing only three of their own. Those two close games are allowing you to buy Coastal at a bit of a discount. Barring an injury to Grayson McCall, Coastal is almost guaranteed to score north of 30 points in this game. The Chanticleers are averaging nearly 39 points per game at home since McCall became the starting quarterback at the beginning on the 2020 season. By contrast, Old Dominion has had a difficult time scoring points this season. The Monarchs are averaging just north of five yards per play and just under 22 points per game and have not faced an imposing set of defenses. I think this is the proverbial 'get right' game for Coastal as the Chanticleers improve to 7-0 and potentially break into the AP Poll for the third consecutive season.

Louisiana Tech +7 North Texas

Louisiana Tech and North Texas both put up 1-3 record in the non-conference, so this game is vital to their bowl hopes. At 2-3, a victory would even Louisiana Tech's record halfway through their first season under Sonny Cumbie and mean a split over their final six would get them to the postseason. North Texas is already 3-3, having played and won a conference game in Week Zero, but a loss here will likely keep them home for the holidays as they have road contests remaining with the three top teams in the conference (UAB, UTSA, and Western Kentucky). While the teams put up matching 1-3 marks in non-conference play, Louisiana Tech played the tougher schedule. Both squads knocked off their FCS opponent, but Louisiana Tech faced two Power Five teams on the road (Clemson and Missouri) as well as one of the better Sun Belt teams (South Alabama). Meanwhile, North Texas did not face a single Power Five team, losing to Memphis, SMU, and UNLV, with the in-state battle with the Mustangs coming at home. North Texas was a home underdog to a bad Florida Atlantic team two weeks ago. Now suddenly, we should trust them laying a full touchdown in a conference game? With that defense? These teams have played every year since joining Conference USA in 2013 and Louisiana Tech has won seven of the nine meetings, including all four in Denton (twice as an underdog). Since qualifying for the 2017 Conference USA Championship Game (and getting waxed by Florida Atlantic), North Texas has been a conference favorite of at least a touchdown eleven times. They are 4-11 ATS in those games. Take the Bulldogs to keep this one close.    

Southern Miss -4 Arkansas State

The season is almost halfway over, but the rest of it should be a breeze for Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have faced a low-key challenging schedule so far. Their five FBS opponents are a combined 16-7 with the Miami Hurricanes posting the worst record at 2-3. Southern Miss looked horrendous on offense in their last game as Troy limited them 205 total yards and under 3.5 yards per play. However, the Trojans have the best defense in the Sun Belt and one of the best defenses in the G5, especially at home. In their two Sun Belt home games, the Trojans have made two competent offenses (Marshall and Southern Miss) look like bad FCS teams, holding them to 17 total points and an absurd 2.9 yards per play. The going should get a little easier as the Golden Eagles return to Hattiesburg to face Arkansas State in a rematch of the 2005 New Orleans Bowl. The Red Wolves are better than they were last season, but that is not a high bar to clear. While they have already matched last year's Sun Belt win total (1), they have been outgained on a per play basis in all three games (aggregate total of nearly a yard and a half per play) and are 1-4 straight up in Sun Belt road games under Butch Jones. This spread implies Southern Miss would be favored by about a point at a neutral site. I think that undersells Southern Miss by about a field goal. I'm always a little hesitant in laying more than three, but I think Southern Miss wins this game by at least a touchdown. 

Nebraska +14 Purdue

Believe it or not, this is for a share of first place in the Big 10 West. After opening conference play with embarrassing and heartbreaking losses respectively, the Cornhuskers and Boilermakers have both won two conference games in a row to move into a first place tie with Illinois. A loss by Nebraska practically eliminates them from division title contention as they will likely be underdogs in their next five games. Purdue has a more navigable schedule, particularly the closing stretch with Northwestern and Indiana, so a loss will not necessarily preclude them from playing in their first ever conference title game. Purdue has won back to back road games as an underdog, an area where they have excelled under Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers are 20-10 ATS as an regular season underdog under Brohm with 13 outright wins. Meanwhile, they are 12-16 ATS as a regular season favorite with 12 outright losses! Purdue's consecutive road wins as an underdog have shifted the market too much. Nebraska is not as good as I thought they would be in the preseason, but they are good enough to keep this within two touchdowns. 

Utah -3.5 Southern Cal

It took some time for Utah to adjust to the rigors of a Pac-12 schedule. In their first seven seasons of Pac-12 play, the Utes actually posted a losing conference record in Salt Lake City (15-17)! However, since the start of the 2018 season (when they played in their first of three Pac-12 Championship Games), the Utes are 16-2 at home. One of those losses did come to Southern Cal in the pandemic shortened 2020 season, but in 'normal' regular seasons, the Utes are 14-1 at home in Pac-12 play since 2018. They have also won and covered all three meetings with the Trojans in Salt Lake City when they entered favored as they are in this game. Give credit to Southern Cal for starting the season 6-0, but this is by far their most significant road test. I think this spread tells you everything you need to know about the game. Southern Cal is unbeaten and ranked in the top ten, while Utah has two losses and is coming off a humbling defensive effort at UCLA. Yet the Utes are favored. I'll take Utah, even laying the hook to end Southern Cal's unbeaten run and make the Pac-12 race a little more interesting. 

Duke +7 North Carolina

After a brief absence, the ACC Wheel of Destiny has returned with a vengeance to the Coastal Division. North Carolina is all alone in first place with a half game lead over (checks notes) Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils lost to said Yellow Jackets last week, but can move into a first place tie by beating the Tar Heels on Saturday night. While the past two games in the series may have given you the impression that North Carolina has dominated it (wins by 32 and 31 points respectively), Duke covered in Chapel Hill (losing in overtime) three years ago and won in Durham in 2018. While North Carolina has moved the ball and scored seemingly at will since Mack Brown returned in 2019 (over 37 points per game), they have blown their fair share of games as a road favorite. The Tar Heels are 3-6-1 ATS as a road favorite in Brown's second stint, losing outright to four mediocre to bad teams in 2020 (Florida State and Virginia) and 2021 (Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech). Heck, a month ago, these same Tar Heels were laying an identical number at Georgia State. North Carolina is going to score, but no lead is safe with their defense. The Tar Heels have won all three of their road games this season, but no victory has come by more than a touchdown. I expect a similar result here. Take Duke and the points. 

New Mexico State +6.5 New Mexico

On a weekend that features three matchups of unbeaten Power 5 teams taking place in the early and late afternoon window, this might be a good palette cleanser in the evening. Assuming of course you can find the game. It is being aired by something called Flo Sports, so check you local listings. While the two teams from the Land of Enchantment are a combined 3-9 in 2022, this is a legitimate rivalry, with the first contest taking place before New Mexico even became a state! To better compare these two teams, I think we should toss out their results against Power Five and FCS teams. Being ground into dust by Minnesota and Wisconsin doesn't really give us an idea about how New Mexico State will fare against a team in their own weight class. Similarly, New Mexico's visit to Baton Rouge and their opener against Maine tell us very little about the Lobos. Once we remove those games, and look at the per play data for both teams, its easy to make a case for the Aggies from Las Cruces. New Mexico State has faced four G5 teams and while they are 1-3 in those games, they have actually outgained their opponents on a per play basis (5.21 to 4.73). In those four games, the Aggies have been done in by turnovers (-7 margin). Meanwhile, New Mexico is also 1-3 in their four games against G5 opponents, but the Lobos have been outgained by more than a full yard per play (4.12 to 5.18). The Lobos have fared better in the turnover department (+3), with most of that work coming against UTEP when they forced the Miners to cough the ball up seven times. I should note New Mexico has faced a more challenging foursome of opponents (Boise State, UNLV, UTEP, and Wyoming) as compared to New Mexico State (Florida International, Hawaii, Nevada, and UTEP), but I don't understand how the Lobos can be laying nearly a full touchdown on the road. Danny Gonzales is in his third season as head coach of the Lobos and after a decent showing in the abbreviated 2020 campaign where they averaged nearly 24 points per game, the offense has disappeared. The offense averaged just over 12 points per game last season and is currently averaging a shade over 19 this season (15 per game against FBS opponents). You can't lay a lot points, especially on the road, with an offense like that. I know New Mexico State looked like trash in their most recent outing, losing at home to FIU, but off a bye and playing at home, they are the play in this dumpster dive.  

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

Another week, another 3-4 record. Things have to turn around soon right? Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 16-19 

Buffalo -2 Bowling Green

After an 0-3 start to the season that included a home loss to an FCS team, Buffalo has quietly won two in a row to get in position to contend for the MAC East crown. Last week's victory against Miami of Ohio required a fourth quarter comeback with Cole Snyder tossing the winning touchdown in the final minute. Buffalo was fortunate to catch Miami as they are without the services of Brett Gabbert. His backup, Aveon Smith, made some big plays on the ground, but was confounded by the forward pass and the Bulls beat what is likely the division's top team when healthy. Meanwhile, Bowling Green won their MAC opener last week. It marked the first time the Falcons opened conference play 1-0 since 2015, which is also their last winning season and last time they won the conference. Even in a conference as full of parity as the MAC, I would still pump the brakes on the conference title dreams. Akron is probably the worst team in the conference and while the Falcons did beat Marshall at home earlier in the year, the Thundering Herd outgained them by nearly 200 yards. And they also lost at home to an FCS team. After posting a quietly competent defense last season, Bowling Green is allowing over six and a half yards per play to FBS opponents this year. The Falcons do generate a lot of havoc, accumulating 20 sacks on the season, but every opponent except Akron has scored more than 30 points against them (and the Zips scored 28). Buffalo has not played like the 1985 Bears on defense either, allowing over seven yards per play to FBS opponents. However, their slate of opposing offenses has been a shade tougher and they won their games without the benefit of a fantastic turnover margin. Through five games, the Bulls are +1 in turnovers and in their two victories, they are even with two turnovers forced and committed. Meanwhile, through five games, the Falcons are +6 in turnovers and that good fortune has come almost entirely in their two victories where they are +5 (in games they won by a combined six points). Bowling Green is being propped up by an unsustainable turnover margin and you are getting the Bulls at a discount. Look for Buffalo to move to 3-0 in MAC play with relatively easy win. 

Missouri +11 Florida

Is it time to entertain the notion, no matter how far-fetched, that Missouri has a pretty good defense. Consider the following: They held Georgia to 26 points, the Bulldogs lowest point total in a regular season game since the 2021 season opener against Clemson. They held Auburn to 217 total yards at 3.3 yards per play the week prior. While they allowed 40 points to Kansas State in an embarrassing loss earlier in the season, their former Big 8 and Big 12 rival returned a punt for a touchdown and forced four Missouri turnovers allowing them to start three second half drives in Missouri territory. In three games against Power Five opponents, the Tigers are allowing 345 yards per game and 4.95 yards per play. The question here is, can they get off the mat after leading Georgia for the majority of last week's game before giving up the lead in the fourth quarter? There are certainly instances where a team struggles after leaving it all on the field against a highly ranked opponent (see Oregon State). However, unlike the Beavers, who succumbed to Southern Cal late in Corvallis and then were routed by Utah, Missouri was not unbeaten with designs on a conference title. The Tigers had already lost twice (once in conference play) and were already coming off a gut-wrenching loss. Florida looked great in a delayed home win against Eastern Washington where they posted an unholy 666 yards of total offense and scored 52 points. While the Eagles are an historically strong FCS program, they have allowed over 47 points per game this season. Florida's offense will encounter a lot more resistance this weekend and I expect Missouri to keep this one close as they typically have in their visits to Gainesville since joining the SEC. Missouri is 2-3 straight up against the Gators in Gainesvile, but 3-2 ATS. Their ATS losses both came in years that Florida won the SEC East (2016 and 2020). This Florida team is not at that level. Take Missouri to keep this one close. 

UCLA +3.5 Utah

There are four Pac-12 teams that are unbeaten in conference play and two of them square off in Pasadena on Saturday afternoon. UCLA has had a very advantageous schedule through the first part of 2022, playing four of their first five at home (plus this one) with the lone road trip coming against woeful Colorado. UCLA has played well against that home friendly schedule, scoring at least 32 points in each game and topping 40 points four times. I feel like the Bruins threw the betting market off their scent a few weeks ago when they nearly lost at home to South Alabama. The Jaguars have proven to be a solid G5 team, but I think the market is still punishing them. Case in point, they were a slight home underdog against a Washington that dominated a relatively soft early schedule. Washington was playing their first road game of the year and while the final margin was somewhat close, the Bruins controlled the game from the middle of the first quarter and were never in danger of losing. Can they continue their ascent under Chip Kelly against the defending Pac-12 champs (and preseason favorite)? Utah opened their season with a road loss against a Florida team the jury is still very much out on. They rebounded from that loss with easy victories against FCS and G5 opponents before catching Arizona State fresh off firing their coach and Oregon State off a heartbreaking loss. The Utes dominated Oregon State on the scoreboard last week, but the play by play stats were much closer. Utah took advantage of four Oregon State interceptions to run away from the Beavers in the second half. After forcing one turnover in their opening loss to Florida, the Utes have forced eleven over their past four games (+8 margin). If the Utes finish with an average turnover margin of +2 per game over the rest of the regular season, they should run the table. However, turnovers are often a fickle mistress, so the Utes are probably a little overvalued in the betting market. Personally, I think this game should be closer to a pick 'em. UCLA is 7-5 ATS as a home underdog under Chip Kelly, but if you look at the chronology of that record, you can see improvement. In Kelly's first two seasons, the Bruins were 3-4 ATS as a home underdog with two outright wins. Since the start of 2020, the Bruins are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog and in all four of their covers, they have won the game outright. And their lone loss was a devastating bad beat. I think Dorian Thompson-Robinson can tax Utah's defense much like Anthony Richardson did in the opener. Take the Bruins and the points. 

Duke -3.5 Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech began the post-Geoff Collins era with a victory as a massive underdog at Pitt last weekend. While it was a great victory for morale at Georgia Tech and made you feel good for alum and interim coach Brent Key, it was par for the course for Pitt. Since Narduzzi arrived in the Steel City in 2015, the Panthers have lost at home as a favorite of a touchdown or more six times, including five times since the beginning of 2019. Even when they were busy winning the ACC last year, they dropped two homes games, when a victory in either may have earned them a playoff bid. Plus, Georgia Tech's formula for victory is unlikely to be sustainable. The Yellow Jackets barely threw for 100 yards (102 to be exact). And if you were wondering, no, they did not revert to the triple option. They put the ball in the air 27 times and netted 102 yards (75 once we account for the four sacks that are inexplicably attributed to rushing yards in college football). Georgia Tech capitalized on three Pitt turnovers (plus a failed fourth down conversion) and still almost delivered a master class in blowing the game. From running out of bounds late in the fourth quarter to lackadaisical tackling with a double digit lead, the Yellow Jackets were fortunate to get the win even with all the help from the Panthers. I will say, it appears Georgia Tech emphasized special teams without Collins on the sideline as they made four field goals and did not have a single kick blocked in what seems like decades. Now the Yellow Jackets return home somehow just a half game out of first in the ACC Coastal. Those dreams will almost certainly be crushed by supper time on Saturday, but a nerdy engineer can dream of a rematch with Clemson for a few days at least. I will caution you that Duke has won two conference road games since the beginning of 2019 (Virginia Tech and Syracuse are the proud victims), but they appear to be quite improved under new coach Mike Elko. Plus the Blue Devils have already played two road games, beating Northwestern and hanging with unbeaten Kansas. This spread implies this game would be around a pick 'em on a neutral field. I don't buy that. The victory last week was nice, but Georgia Tech is still bad. Perhaps ACC bad, and not worst in the Power Five bad, but bad nonetheless. Take the Blue Devils to cover this small number. 

Iowa State +2 Kansas State

If he drops this game, it might be time to start a dialogue about Matt Campbell. The former hot young coach has struggled over the past season and a half, with the Cyclones posting a 10-8 record since the start of 2021. Normally, any record over .500 would be cause for celebration in Ames, but Campbell has raised expectations. Of those eight losses since the beginning of last season, six have come as a betting favorite, including both this season. The past two weeks, losses at home to Baylor and at Kansas, have featured penalties (the Cyclones committed eight for 78 yards against Baylor, several of which extended scoring drives), turnovers (two in each game and a combined margin of -3), and missed kicks (three missed field goals in the three point loss to Kansas). Even with those mistakes, the Cyclones lost both games by seven and three points respectively. Now, returning home, this looks like a good spot to sell Kansas State. The Wildcats are 3-0 against the three Power Five opponents they have faced (Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech), but they also have a +6 combined turnover margin in those games. I mentioned that Iowa State has struggled with turnovers in their two losses, but turnover margin, while having a dramatic impact on the outcome of a game, is not predictive going forward. Iowa State is 3-3 under Matt Campbell against Kansas State, but has won three of the last four, with their two most recent wins coming by double digits. Iowa State famously sent The Legend out a loser in his final game and I think the wrong team is favored in this spot. The Big 12 is deep and while that will likely prevent it from placing a team in the College Football Playoff, it should make for a very entertaining conference race. Take the Cyclones to pull the small upset in this edition of Farmageddon. 

Illinois -3.5 Iowa

Am I putting too much stock in what I last saw, or is it time to anoint Illinois as a contender in the Big 10 West? As of this writing, every team in the Big 10 West is 1-1 (except Wisconsin) and you could convince me any of five teams could be Ohio State's sacrificial lamb in the Big 10 Championship Game (Nebraska and Northwestern are the only two I can't see winning the division). While Iowa has the better defensive reputation in this game, I think its fair to say Illinois has performed better this season. The Illini have allowed under four yards per play in the early going and have held their last two Power Five opponents (Virginia and Wisconsin) to a combined 13 points. Iowa showed some signs of life in the second half of their loss to Michigan (scoring 14 points against the Wolverines), but this offense is bad until further notice. And offensively, Illinois has been far superior this season, with Chase Brown racking up 733 rushing yards at over six yards per carry. The Illini have not beaten Iowa since 2008 (lost last eight), but that was also the last time they were favored. I think the Illini win by about a touchdown and set up a huge divisional game next week when they host Minnesota. 

Louisiana-Monroe +13.5 Coastal Carolina

Guess how many times Coastal Carolina has been an underdog since the start of 2021? Zero. The Chanticleers, along with Ohio State, were the only teams to be favored in every game they played last season. Oddsmakers have yet to install them as underdogs in 2022 either. Coastal has not been an underdog since BYU made their infamous cross-country pilgrimage to Conway in 2020. However, despite being the darlings of oddsmakers, Coastal has not been a great bet as a favorite in that span. Against FBS opponents, the Chanticleers are 7-11 ATS (4-5 at home, 3-4 on the road, and 0-2 in neutral site games). They have been double digit favorites 14 times in that span, and are 5-9 ATS (4-5 at home, 2-3 on the road, and 0-1 in neutral site games). Their run as a favorite is likely to last two more games (this spot and home versus Old Dominion next week) and end on a pre-Halloween trip to Marshall. Of course, if the Thundering Herd look like they have the past few weeks, the streak could continue. But I digress. While the Chanticleers are unbeaten, they have struggled defensively, allowing every opponent to score at least 24 points against them. Quarterback Grayson McCall has been able to make up for those defensive deficiencies by averaging ten yards per pass. Despite McCall's greatness, Coastal is an option adjacent offense that loves to run the ball. And Louisiana-Monroe should be able to corral their running game. The Warhawks are allowing under four yards per carry on the season and that includes games against Texas and Alabama. Their two Sun Belt opponents have both averaged under three yards per carry and the Warhawks accumulated twenty tackles for loss in those two games. Louisiana-Monroe will be able to get into the backfield on some early down runs and force Coastal into third and longs. McCall will no doubt convert some (perhaps a lot) of them, but Louisiana-Monroe will hold Coastal to around their scoring average (36 points per game) and be able to move the ball well enough against Coastal's weak defense to generate at least 24 points of their own. They don't have the goods to win outright, but nearly two touchdowns is too many.  

The Magnificent Seven: Week V

Last week was our third losing week out of four. Thankfully, we have avoided complete disaster and still have a shot at a good season if we can get out act together. Home teams in BOLD. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 13-15

Iowa +11 Michigan

Am I nervous about this pick? Definitely. In four games, Iowa has scored five offensive touchdowns, with three coming in their veritable explosion against Nevada. There is no sugarcoating it, this offense is putrid. However, the defense continues to be stellar, albeit against a relatively weak schedule. And speaking of weak schedules...

If you just looked at final scores and ignored their opponents, Michigan appeared to be the best team in college football after their non-conference performance. The Wolverines bludgeoned Colorado State, Hawaii, and Connecticut by a combined score of 166-17. It was no surprise the Wolverines were massive favorites when they hosted Maryland in their conference opener last week. However, the Terrapins put up a good fight, especially considering they are known for going tits up against elite competition. I think the Maryland game proved Michigan is not quite in the same class as Ohio State (as most suspected in the preseason). Now the Wolverines hit the road for the first time this season in a place where they have not had great success. Iowa is 5-2 against Michigan in Kinnick Stadium this century, with three outright wins as an underdog. The last time Michigan visited (in 2016), they entered as three touchdown favorites. However, Iowa was able to drag them into the mud and win with a last second field goal. Despite their lackluster offense, history beckons you to take the Hawkeyes. Under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa is 9-2 ATS as a double digit home underdog. They are also 10-4-2 ATS against AP top ten teams at home. I think Iowa is able to make Michigan play an ugly low-scoring game in the teens or low twenties and eke out a cover. 

Kent State -11.5 Ohio

After a brutal non-conference slate that included road trips to Washington, Oklahoma, and Georgia, Kent State can begin their defense of the MAC East. The Golden Flashes acquitted themselves well in that three game gauntlet. They were within one score of Oklahoma at halftime and gave Georgia their best game to date. Their reward for that solid performance? One of the worst defenses in FBS. The Bobcats have allowed nearly 45 points per game a third of the way through their 2022 schedule and while two P5 teams account for half that total, Ohio just allowed 52 points at over nine yards per play to Fordham. Vince Lombardi and the other six blocks of granite no longer play for the Rams either. It looks like Ohio will need to win a fair amount of MAC shootouts to qualify for a bowl. I expect Kent State to put up at least 38 points and hanging half a hundred is certainly within the realm of possibility. MAC games should be a breeze after that non-conference schedule. It will be like hiking without a heavy backpack (or walking as some folks might call it). Kent State rolls here. 

North Texas +3.5 Florida Atlantic

I think this line is mostly a function of how well Florida Atlantic played last week at Purdue. The Owls lost by two points and actually had the ball with a chance to win late in the fourth quarter. However, there were some extenuating circumstances in that game. Purdue was starting their backup quarterback and while he played reasonably well, he only averaged 5.4 yards per pass. Purdue also lost the turnover battle, failed to convert on a fourth down, and missed a field goal. The spot was also bad for Purdue as they were coming off a close loss to Syracuse and perhaps looking ahead to their visit to Minnesota. Florida Atlantic has had some backup quarterback good fortune this season. In their opener, Charlotte starter Chris Reynolds left with an injury and the Owls rolled 43-13. However, in their two FBS games against teams that had their starting quarterbacks for the entire game, the Owls have allowed 41 and 40 points respectively. North Texas is not a good team, but they have an experienced quarterback with Austin Aune. Aune is in his third year starting for the Mean Green and has thrown 12 touchdowns while averaging nearly eight and a half yards per pass this season. Aune made a few mistakes last week against Memphis, throwing two interceptions that were ultimately returned for touchdowns. That game was in the Liberty Bowl, while this one will be in the friendly confines of Apogee Stadium. Florida Atlantic is 2-10 in true road games under Willie Taggart (2-8 against G5 teams), so North Texas is really the only side you can look at in this game. I expect a high-scoring back and forth affair and since the home team is catching points, they are the play. 

Mississippi State -4 Texas A&M

Texas A&M has rebounded after their embarrassing home loss to Appalachian State. Since losing to the Mountaineers, the Aggies have beaten Miami at home and Arkansas at a neutral site. In those two games, noted quarterback whisperer Jimbo Fisher has coaxed a 51% completion rate and 291 passing yards against the Hurricanes and Razorbacks. For comparisons sake, Miami just allowed 408 yards passing to Middle Tennessee State on 16 completions and Arkansas allowed more than 1000 yards through the air to their first three opponents (one of which was an FCS team). In other words, the Texas A&M offense is broken and I think that will ultimately be their undoing in their first true road games of the year. The Aggies will also be without leading receiver Ainias Smith who suffered a season ending injury in the Arkansas game. The Aggies were able to rely on their defense to beat Miami and some good fortune to beat Arkansas, but they will need to pack their offense to beat Mississippi State in Starkville. The Air Raid glitched out two weeks ago in Baton Rouge, but otherwise, the Bulldogs have been clicking in their third season under Mike Leach, averaging 44 points per game in their other three contests (against inferior competition). I don't think Mississippi State can get into the forties, but they probably won't have to. Under Jimbo Fisher, the Aggies are 7-9 in true road games, but they have only won two road games against teams that finished with winning records (South Carolina in 2018 and Auburn in 2020). Their offense is abysmal, their track record on the road is not great, and Mississippi State has been building for this season. Even though this spread is north of a field goal, I wouldn't be hesitant to back the Bulldogs. 

California +4 Washington State

Last week Cal did something rather unusual. They won a shootout. The 80 combined points in their victory against Arizona was the second highest combined scoring game of the Justin Wilcox era and a far cry from their game with Arizona last season. The only game to top it was a clash with Arizona in 2017. In the victory, freshman running back Jaydn Ott racked up 274 yards rushing on just 19 carries. Quarterback Jack Plummer also had a big day, throwing for three touchdowns at nearly nine yards per pass. In fact, Plummer has played pretty well all season save for their trip to South Bend. While Plummer was stymied in that game and Ott was bottled up, Notre Dame has one of the better defenses in the nation. Cal should be able to move the ball against middling Pac-12 teams like Washington State. The Cougars are also coming off a shootout of their own where they gave up 29 fourth quarter points to blow their conference opener against Oregon. Quarterback Cameron Ward threw for 375 yards, but also tossed two costly interceptions, including a pick six that sealed the game. While Ward has decent overall numbers, if you take out the games against FCS competition (Idaho) and one of the worst FBS teams (Colorado State), he has actually thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3). And while the game with Oregon was close, Washington State gave up over 600 yards at eight yards per play to the Ducks. Cal should be able to move the ball once again and pull off a minor upset in a game that is more high scoring than the Cal faithful are used to. 

Troy +5 Western Kentucky

The Trojans and Hilltoppers have not played in nearly a decade, but they actually played seven consecutive seasons between 2007 and 2013 with five of those meetings coming as Sun Belt conference opponents. Troy won five of the seven meetings if you were keeping score at home. This renewal of old acquaintances probably represents the best team Western Kentucky has faced thus far. The Hilltoppers have played two of the worst teams in FBS (FIU and Hawaii), winning those games by a combined 105 points. They also faced a quality FCS team (Austin Peay), but were not overly impressive in the eleven point victory and a P5 team on the road (Indiana) which they dropped in overtime. If Troy is not the best team Western Kentucky has faced, they certainly have the best defense the Hilltoppers will have seen thus far. In their opener, Troy held Ole Miss to their lowest point total of the season (28) and last week they dominated Marshall in a deceiving 16-7 victory. Troy sacked Marshall quarterbacks seven times and limited the Herd (a team that accumulated 364 yards of offense at Notre Dame) to under 200 total yards at a paltry 2.5 yards per play. Western Kentucky has maintained the reputation of a G5 offensive juggernaut they acquired last year when Bailey Zappe was setting passing records. The Hilltoppers are in the upper quartile of G5 five offenses, but their numbers have been buoyed by a soft early schedule. They have a big conference date with UTSA next week in the Alamodome so the Trojans may not have their full attention. I like Troy as a Sun Belt sleeper and I think they are good enough to pull off the outright upset against the Hilltoppers. 

Indiana +5 Nebraska

I was on Indiana last week and the Hoosiers suffered a very painful beat. After getting back in the game in the second half, the Hoosiers faced a fourth down late in the game deep in their own territory. Quarterback Connor Bazelak, who showed defective pocket presence all game, was sacked for the fifth time, this time inside his own five yard line. As there was a little over two minutes left, Cincinnati could not just kneel on the ball and mercifully end the game. They punched it in on third down and covered. The Bearcats won by 21 points (favored by 17 points) and scored 21 points in the final minute and a half of both halves. In the other 57 minutes, the game was even. No time to bitch and moan about that unfortunate result, but it does potentially show Indiana might be undervalued by the betting market. The Hoosiers still have a decent shot at bowl eligibility with Nebraska and Rutgers remaining on the schedule. If the Hoosiers can pull those two games out, they would have to score an additional upset to get to the postseason (Michigan State and Purdue would be your most likely possibilities). Is it improbable? Sure, but Indiana at least has a path to the postseason. Meanwhile, despite more than modest preseason expectations, Nebraska is reduced to playing out the string by the first weekend in October. The Cornhuskers would need to win five of their final eight to get to bowl eligibility and while the remaining schedule only includes two ranked teams at the moment (Michigan and Minnesota), Nebraska will likely be underdogs in six of those games. And in case you are Big 10 agnostic (not a terrible path to follow), Nebraska's season opening loss to Northwestern has not aged well. The Wildcats have dropped three in a row to Duke, Southern Illinois, and Miami of Ohio while averaging just over 20 points per game and 4.91 yards per play. They scored 31 points and averaged 6.21 yards per play against Nebraska. Perhaps the Cornhuskers fixed their tackling, run fits, and coverage problems during their bye week, but I doubt it. Every FBS team Nebraska has faced has scored at least 31 points. Indiana should get close to that total and I wouldn't be shocked if they leave Lincoln with an outright victory. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IV

We finally had a winning week. Thankfully we don't lose any additional money when the calls are extra bad though because there were a pair of stinkers on our card last week. Let's make it two winning weeks in a row. Home teams in BOLD. 

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 10-11

Clemson -7 Wake Forest

Every time Clemson fans sport their orange national championship t-shirts while riding around on their tractors, they should say a little 'thank you' to Wake Forest. For it was the Demon Deacons that got Tommy Bowden fired fourteen years ago. On a Thursday night in 2008, Clemson traveled to Winston-Salem and fell 12-7 to Wake Forest. Your humble author happened to be in attendance that night. The next day, Clemson fired Bowden who was in his tenth year as head coach and promoted a little known assistant named Dabo Swinney. Swinney led the Tigers to the ACC Championship Game the next season and after a step back in 2010, made some great coordinator hires, improved the recruiting, and the rest as they say, is history. Swinney's accomplishments at the school include seven ACC titles, a pair of national titles, and an unblemished record against Wake Forest. Under Swinney, the Tigers are 13-0 against the Demon Deacons, winning by an average of nearly 28 points per game. Only one game, the 2011 edition, has been close. Had Wake Forest won that game in Death Valley, they would have represented the Atlantic Division in the ACC Championship Game. Otherwise, the closest the Demon Deacons have come is 14 points in 2014. Under Swinney, the Tigers have been mediocre ATS versus Wake Forest (7-6), but that is primarily due to the high points spreads. Clemson has been favored by an average of 20 points per game against Wake Forest under Swinney and has been a double digit favorite eleven times. Wake Forest was probably looking ahead to this game as evidenced by their narrow victory against Liberty last week. I expect a better performance this week, but Clemson's defense has put the clamps on the Clawfense each time they have played. The game may be close for a while, but Clemson should win by double digits. 

TCU -2 SMU

SMU has won the past two games in this rivalry, beating the Horned Frogs in 2019 and 2021 (there was no game in 2020). However, despite the back-to-back victories, the Mustangs have not won at home since 2005! That year, TCU was coming off a road victory against Oklahoma and while the Mustangs pulled off the upset, TCU would finish the season 11-1, while SMU would finish just 5-6. In the new millennium, TCU has dominated this series (16-4 straight up record) and the oddsmakers have consistently installed them as heavy favorites. TCU was a double digit favorite in nineteen consecutive meetings between 1999 and 2018. They lost the past two meetings as eight and nine point favorites respectively, so this marks the cheapest you could buy the Horned Frogs in this rivalry since the last time they were an underdog (1998). TCU is the stronger program and will be looking to make amends for their past two losses. You couldn't ask for much better than laying under a field goal. 

Buffalo +6 Eastern Michigan

Last week Eastern Michigan beat a Power Five team on the road for the fourth time under Chris Creighton. Creighton, in his ninth season at Eastern Michigan, has pulled off one of the best rebuilding jobs in college football history. While the Eagles have maxed out at seven regular season wins and have posted just one winning conference record under Creighton, they have been a consistent bowl contender for the past six seasons. They have also been money in the bank when catching points. After a rough first two years when he was building the foundation, the Eagles are an amazing 28-10-1 ATS when catching points since 2016! However, as you can see above, they are actually laying points in this spot and the Eagles have not been nearly as profitable in that situation. As a home favorite since 2016, they are 5-9 ATS overall and just 2-7 ATS when laying single digits. In addition, in the seven instances where they have not covered as a single digit home favorite, they have lost the game outright! While Eastern Michigan led wire to wire against Arizona State last week, they also gave up touchdowns on seven consecutive drives to Louisiana-Lafayette two weeks ago. That Louisiana-Lafayette team was just held under 200 total yards by defensive stalwart Rice. Buffalo is going to be able to move the ball and score against Eastern Michigan. The Eagles should be favored, as Buffalo has looked less than impressive in the early going, but they are not going to roll over the Bulls. Finally, its only natural for Eastern Michigan to relax a bit after their huge win against Arizona State. As I mentioned, they have beaten three other Power Five teams under Creighton. What happened in the three games immediately following those victories? In 2017, they lost at home to Ohio as a small favorite. In 2018, they lost at Buffalo as a small underdog. And in 2019, they needed a miraculous blocked punt in the closing seconds to beat an FCS team. This is going to be a close game. Take the points. 

Iowa State -2.5 Baylor

Baylor won the Big 12 outright for just the second time last season (and first time since 2013). However, despite their success under Dave Aranda, the Bears are just 3-8 straight up on the road in his tenure. All three of those victories came last season, with two coming against Texas State and Kansas. I know Kansas is looking unstoppable this year, but remember, the Jayhawks used to be bad. The Bears already have a road loss on their ledger this season at BYU. Note that BYU team was missing several key contributors on offense and proceeded to get blown out by Oregon the next week. Meanwhile, Iowa State seems to be relishing in their newfound anonymity. After beginning the past three seasons in the preseason AP Poll (including the top ten last season) and losing fifteen times, the Cyclones began this year without any expectations. They have responded by pounding the FCS and Group of Five teams on their schedule while beating Iowa for the first time under Matt Campbell. Now they open Big 12 play looking for revenge after losing in Waco last season as a top fifteen team. The Cyclones outgained the Bears by nearly 200 yards last season, but allowed a kickoff return touchdown and failed on a late two point conversion. Iowa State is just 1-2 ATS against Baylor in Ames under Matt Campbell, but that is mostly due to the inflated point spreads. The last two times these two have faced off in Ames, Iowa State has been laying double digits. They won by fourteen and seven respectively, but failed to cover. With the Cyclones lying less than a field goal I like their chances of covering this low number. 

Indiana +17 Cincinnati

After finishing 2-10 in 2021, Indiana has already topped last season's win total with a glistening 3-0 mark early in 2022. Despite the undefeated record, Indiana's play has been less than inspiring. They edged Illinois in their opener, trailed Idaho at halftime, and needed overtime to beat Western Kentucky at home. The Hoosiers are probably one of the worst undefeated teams in the nation, but I don't think they should be catching double digits against a Group of Five team (even one that made the College Football Playoff last season). Remember, a much better Cincinnati team had real trouble with Indiana last year. The Hoosiers led 14-0 in last year's game and even held a slim one-point lead going into the fourth quarter. Cincinnati pulled away in the final frame, but Indiana (remember 2-10 Indiana) put forth a valiant effort in defeat. A simple spread comparison shows why Indiana is an easy play here. As I mentioned, eventual playoff participant Cincinnati traveled to eventual 2-10 Indiana last season. The Bearcats were favored by three or three and a half points depending on your book and when you bet it. This spread implies this version of Cincinnati, which is ostensibly worse than last year's, would be favored by eleven or twelve points at this year's version of Indiana (which is at least on par and perhaps better than last year's). Don't consider this a vote of confidence in Indiana (the Hoosiers could drop their last nine games) or a slight at Cincinnati (the Bearcats could make another New Year's Six Bowl), but rather a case where the spread is simply too damn high. 

Arkansas State +5 Old Dominion

This season, when it comes to facing Power Five in-state teams, Old Dominion has kept it close on the scoreboard despite being significantly outplayed down to down. In their victory against Virginia Tech, the Monarchs were outgained by nearly 100 yards and averaged about a yard less per play than the Hokies. However, they were plus three in turnovers thanks to four Grant Wells interceptions and they returned a botched field goal snap for a touchdown. In their loss to Virginia last week, the Monarchs were outgained by nearly 200 yards and averaged about a yard and a half less per play than the Cavaliers. However, they were plus two in turnovers as they pounced on three Virginia fumbles, including two when Virginia had goal to go opportunities. The Cavaliers also missed a relatively short field goal that gave Old Dominion an opportunity to take a late lead. The Monarchs deserve credit for forcing those turnovers, but that is not a formula that tends to work out in the long run. Consequently, Old Dominion is little overvalued in the betting market. This line should probably be closer to a field goal or perhaps even lower. Arkansas State has been torched the past two weeks, but their opponents (Ohio State and Memphis) have prolific offenses. Meanwhile, Old Dominion is averaging under five yards per play on the season. Arkansas State's defense was among the worst in the nation through October of last season (allowed nearly eight yards per play through their first eight games). However, they allowed under six yards per play in their last four, winning once and covering twice in that span. I expected some defensive improvement in 2022, but it has probably been masked by the strength of their past two opponents. For what its worth, they did shut down Grambling in the opener. Old Dominion should not be laying nearly a touchdown in this spot. Take the Red Wolves and the points.   

Stanford +13.5 Washington

Is Washington back? The Huskies certainly looked the part in an offensive explosion against Michigan State last week. The Huskies scored 39 points on the Spartans, their most versus a Power Five opponent since pounding the corpse of Arizona during the pandemic season. But before we declare them back, lets add some context to last week's victory. The Huskies torched the Spartans through the air, accumulating 397 yards on 40 pass attempts. However, Michigan State's pass defense was trash last season and despite a decent showing against their first two outclassed opponents, we should probably make a slight downward adjustment to Washington's pass offense. While the pass offense was dominant against Michigan State, their rushing attack was not as formidable. They averaged under three yards per carry and turned the ball over on downs twice inside the Michigan State five because they could not convert in short yardage goal to go situations. Their pass defense also gave up some big plays, granted it could be argued a great deal of the damage occurred in garbage time. Still, there are questions about this Washington team. How will they handle success? The Huskies are have notched their highest ranking (18th in the latest poll) since 2019. I'll note in their past four games as a ranked team, the Huskies are 0-4 (with two of the losses coming to Stanford as a double digit favorite and the other coming to Montana in last year's season opener). Stanford is coming off a bye and should be able to move the ball against the Huskies. If they can avoid the turnovers that doomed them two weeks ago against Southern Cal, they should be able to hang around. David Shaw is 7-4 in his career against the Huskies and the underdog has actually covered the past five in this series. I think this nightcap will come down to the wire. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week III

It was almost a fantastic week. But then we lost two games that made it to overtime and clinched a second consecutive losing week. Perhaps the fates will show us mercy this weekend. Home teams in BOLD. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 6-8

Nebraska +10.5 Oklahoma

Mercifully, the Scott Frost era at Nebraska is over. Centuries from now when historians review his won/loss record as a head coach, the 2017 season at Central Florida will stick out like a sore thumb. Frost's charges finished 13-0 that season, but his other six teams (one at Central Florida and five at Nebraska) managed a 22-38 record with zero winning seasons. With his dismissal, Frost will miss the chance to beat Nebraska's former conference rival. The Sooners have not played in Lincoln since 2009 (I expect this game to be higher scoring) and have actually dropped seven of their past eight visits to the Red Sea. Of course, five of those visits came before Bob Stoops resurrected the program, but historically, the Sooners have not experienced a great deal of success at Nebraska. This iteration of Nebraska has effectively moved the ball (at least six yards per play against each of their first three opponents), but have been ghastly on defense, particularly on the ground. I expect Oklahoma to be able to move the ball and score points against the Huskers, but Nebraska should be able to answer. While the Huskers were never able to get over the proverbial hump under Frost, they did keep games close. They have not lost by double digits since 2020 (in a game where they were a double digit favorite) and twelve of their past thirteen losses have come by a touchdown or less. The heartache likely continues on Saturday. I expect Nebraska to be motivated in playing for Frost and their interim coach Mickey Joseph. Were this mid-November, I would hesitate to back Nebraska, but since it is early in the season, I'll back them catching double digits. 

Buffalo +14 Coastal Carolina

Buffalo and Coastal Carolina both played tight games with FCS teams last week. The Bulls lost to Holy Cross on a Hail Mary at the end of regulation while Coastal needed a fourth quarter comeback to knock off Gardner-Webb. Holy Cross is a ranked FCS team and is coming off three consecutive FCS playoff appearances. Meanwhile Gardner-Webb was 4-7 last season. Perhaps the Bulldogs are an ascendant power at the FCS level, but I don't think this spread is taking into account just how close Coastal Carolina came to losing that game at home. Through two games, Grayson McCall has been his usual outstanding self (six touchdowns and over ten yards per pass), but the Coastal running game is averaging under three and a half yards per carry and the defense has allowed over seven yards per play to both Army and Gardner-Webb. Buffalo gave up 37 points to Holy Cross last week, so I don't expect them to be able to shut Coastal down, but the Bulls should be able to move the ball against a porous Coastal defense. These teams played last year in upstate New York and Coastal, with a much better overall team, escaped with a three point victory. The Bulls won't be able to get enough stops to win, but they can cover two touchdowns. 

California +11.5 Notre Dame

Safe to say, the honeymoon is over in South Bend. Marcus Freeman ascended to the head coach position when Brian Kelly left for LSU after last season. In his brief tenure, his Irish have blown a big lead in the Fiesta Bowl, pushed Ohio State to the limit in the Horseshoe, and lost at home to Marshall. While the defensive performance against Ohio State was impressive, its clear this team lacks play-makers on the offensive side of the ball. Notre Dame has produced six explosive plays (per Game on Paper) in their first two games and are averaging under five yards per play as a team. Oh, and their starting quarterback is out for the rest of the regular season. To cover big numbers, the Irish are going to have to score and that may prove difficult against a Cal team that is pretty much a carbon copy of every Cal team under Justin Wilcox. Under Wilcox, the Bears play good to elite defense, but struggle moving the ball and end up as a mid-tier Pac-12 team. Despite their offensive struggles, the Bears have been a great bet as a road underdog under Wilcox, posting a 14-4 ATS mark, including 11-1 since the start of 2018! This has all the makings of game played in the teens or low twenties. Nothing the Irish have shown through their first two games makes me believe they can cover double digits against a competent Power Five team. An 0-4 start to Marcus Freeman's tenure would not shock me. 

Georgia Tech +16.5 Ole Miss

If you want to craft a schedule to get your hot seat coach fired, Georgia Tech has created a perfect template. The Yellow Jackets have the misfortune of facing a national power in their annual non-conference rivalry game and their permanent cross-division rival in the ACC happens to be having their best run in school history. With two losses in near permanent marker on the schedule annually, the Yellow Jackets added a trip to a Group of Five power and a home game with an SEC school not named Vanderbilt to the 2022 slate. Before the season, the only guaranteed win looked to be Western Carolina, and while the Yellow Jackets handled their business against the Catamounts last week, one of their other potential victories (Duke) is looking a little dicey. Geoff Collins is going to have to pull at least one and perhaps two massive upsets to save his job. Can that happen this week? I'm slightly optimistic. For starters, we are still early in the season. If this game were taking place later in the year, Georgia Tech would probably be playing out the string and unlikely to put up much of a fight. Another reason this game could be closer than the experts think is due to the changes at Ole Miss on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Matt Corral is on injured reserve in the NFL. The top four rushers and top three receivers from last year's team are gone. Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby is at Oklahoma. The Rebels have put up decent offensive numbers through their first two games, but facing Troy and Central Arkansas at home is a bit different from a true road game against an unfamiliar Power Five opponent. Over the summer, I looked at how SEC teams performed in true non-conference road games against unfamiliar opponents. By unfamiliar I mean games where the teams do not play annually (like Georgia and Georgia Tech). In the College Football Playoff era (since 2014), SEC teams are 7-3 in such games (including Mississippi State's victory at Arizona last week), but are just 3-7 ATS. The sample size is relatively small, but the market gives those SEC teams a little too much respect. Ole Miss will probably win this game, but this number is too high. 

LSU +2.5 Mississippi State

Almost exactly two years ago, this very game in this very place marked the beginning of the end of the Ed Orgeron era at LSU. The SEC delayed the start of their season due to the Covid-19 pandemic. On the final weekend of September, SEC play began and on that weekend, LSU was set to defend their national title by hosting Mike Leach is his debut at Mississippi State. The Tigers were prohibitive favorites (16 or 17 points), but in a chilling vision of things to come, their defense stunk up the joint, allowing over 600 yards and 44 points to the Bulldogs. The Tigers never righted the ship and finished up the Coach O era with a pair of .500 regular seasons. Now Brian Kelly gets to do his best Farmer Fran impression in a bid to win his first national title at the FBS level. Kelly's debut ended in dramatic fashion with a blocked extra point costing them a chance to force overtime against Florida State. After a reprieve last week against Southern, the SEC gauntlet begins. Kelly has been an FBS coach for nearly two decades (Central Michigan, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame) and befitting his success, his teams have rarely been home underdogs. However, they have performed quite well in the role. His teams are 13-5-1 ATS as a home underdog with eleven outright wins! Similarly, LSU has done well as a home underdog in general. In the past decade, the Tigers are 7-4-1 ATS as a home underdog, with six outright wins. In addition, their four non-covers all came against Alabama. Like the Supreme Court, I tend to defer to precedent (sometimes) and Mississippi State has rarely been favored in Baton Rouge. The last time was in 2000 (and they lost). I think the Tigers pull off the outright upset against a Bulldog team that is a little overvalued by the betting market. 

Georgia State -19 Charlotte

Three years ago, Will Healy and Club Lit were one of the great Group of Five stories. However, since his 7-6 debut, the 49ers have gone just 7-14 and have allowed more than 35 points per game! The defense, which was the worst in Conference USA on a per play basis last season, has somehow gotten worse. And with quarterback Chris Reynolds missing time with an injury, the offense has not been able to keep the 49ers in games. The 49ers will likely be 0-5 before they return to conference play on October 1st against UTEP, but even against a weak Conference USA, this team will have to do some serious work to get back to a bowl game. I haven't read any updates on Reynolds' status, but I don't expect him to play. The 49ers will be hard pressed to allow less than 40 points to a Georgia State team that loves to run the ball (over 200 yards rushing in nine of their thirteen games last season). And without Reynolds, I'm not very confident they can score twenty points. Georgia State will want to let off some steam after playing well, but coming up short in their first two games against Power Five opponents. The Panthers should roll in this spot. 

Central Florida -8 Florida Atlantic

Last week against Louisville, John Rhys Plumlee showed why he could not hold onto the starting quarterback job at Ole Miss. Plumlee was dynamic on the ground, gaining 83 yards (would have had 97 if sacks were properly attributed to passing yardage), but completed less than half his passes as Louisville put the clamps on the Central Florida offense. That imbalance will not fly in the Power Five, but against Group of Five, particularly lower-tier Group of Five teams like Florida Atlantic, his raw athleticism should win the day. Remember, Florida Atlantic allowed 41 points to Ohio, so Central Florida should be able to feast on the Owls. And despite the loss to Louisville, the defense only allowed 20 points to the Cardinals. If Florida Atlantic can only muster a similar amount, Central Florida should have no trouble covering this modest number.  

The Magnificent Seven: Week II

It wasn't a great start to the year, but at least we didn't dig ourselves a huge hole to climb out of. Let's see if we can make some better picks this week. Home teams in BOLD. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 3-4

Duke +10 Northwestern

Duke and Northwestern both look to be improved after struggling in 2021. Last season, Duke finished 3-9 and dropped their final eight games once ACC play began. Northwestern also went 3-9, winning just a single Big 10 game. These two academically prestigious institutions have played semi-regularly of late, with this being the sixth meeting since 2015. Duke has won the past three, including last year's game in Durham. I wasn't surprised Northwestern was favored (they did upset Nebraska), but I was shocked the line opened over a touchdown and has steadily climbed throughout the week. Duke looked good in their opener as well, blasting Temple in the first game of the Mike Elko era. Temple may end up as the worst team in the AAC once the 2022 season plays out, but it was still an impressive showing for a team that dropped their last eight contests by an average of nearly 32 points per game last season! If you had made this spread before Northwestern beat Nebraska, what would it have been? The Wildcats would likely have been favored, but not by much. The Wildcats showed their offense was at least competent against Nebraska, but their defense allowed over six yards per play and is too leaky to be laying this many points. Duke's offense is probably not as good as Nebraska's (it may be, but again, their first game was against Temple), but their defense may be comparable. The Blue Devils limited Temple to under 200 total yards at about three yards per snap (again, Temple). Meanwhile, Northwestern's showing against Nebraska, especially their ground attack lost a little shine last week. The Cornhuskers eventually pulled away against North Dakota in Lincoln, but they allowed over five yards per rush to an FCS team that finished 5-6 last year. David Cutcliffe had a great career at Duke, but by the end of his tenure, his tactics and message had gotten stale. The Blue Devils made a solid hire in Mike Elko and I think a return to competency has begun in Durham. I'll take the Blue Devils and the ten points.     

Army +2.5 Texas-San Antonio

This is a brutal spot for the UTSA Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are coming off a heartbreaking triple overtime home loss to an in-state rival (Houston) they consider a sort of big brother. Next week they travel to Austin to face on a another in-state big brother (Texas). And in between, all they have to do is travel from San Antonio to West Point to take on a disciplined triple option team for a Noon kickoff. And yet they are laying points to the Black Knights. Army also lost last week at Coastal Carolina, but the offense hit some big plays and the Black Knights were in the game until late in the fourth quarter against one of the nation's best quarterbacks (Grayson McCall) on the road. Army has won the two previous meetings in this series (2019 and 2020) while averaging over 300 yards per game on the ground and over five and a half yards per carry. I know those games came two and three years ago respectively, but UTSA has not faced any other option offenses under Jeff Traylor and I think the Roadrunners shot their proverbial wad last week against Houston. This week they experience the refractory period. 

Pittsburgh +6 Tennessee

Pittsburgh probably should have dropped their opener to West Virginia. However, thanks to some chicken shit coaching by Neal Brown and a dropped pass that resulted in a pick six, the Panthers prevailed. While Neal Brown was doing his best to lower West Virginia's win probability, Pat Narduzzi was almost his equal. Despite having an accurate quarterback, Narduzzi insisted on playing football like it was the 1970's, having his running backs pound the rock, despite their lack of success. The Panthers ran 33 times for 115 yards or roughly the equivalent of an Eddie George NFL carry. They passed just 29 times and even accounting for the five sacks the team allowed, netted 269 yards through the air (over nine yards per pass). Narduzzi's conservatism will likely cost Pittsburgh a game or two this season, and it may even be in this spot. However, since Tennessee will be playing at Mach One, Narduzzi will probably not be able to give in to his base desires and run the ball on two out of every three plays. Tennessee will accumulate yards and score points, but how good are they? The Volunteers blasted Ball State last week, but most of their victories in the early going under Josh Heupel have been against outmanned competition. The Volunteers beat one team that finished with more than six regular season wins last year (Kentucky). Plus, this is an unusual role for Tennessee. Outside of the weird pandemic season, Tennessee has not been favored on the road since 2016! The Volunteers have the coaching advantage, but I think these rosters are pretty close in terms of talent. I expect Pittsburgh to make and allow big plays on defense. It may not be enough to win the game outright, but it should be enough to cover. 

Florida International +13.5 Texas State

On November 23, 2019, Florida International upset Miami to become bowl eligible for the third consecutive season under Butch Davis. That victory marked the apex of the program as Florida International has gone just 2-18 since that victory with both wins coming against FCS opponents. One of those victories came last week, but it required a fourth quarter comeback and a two point conversion in overtime. And their vanquished foe, Bryant, is not exactly North Dakota State. The Bryant Bulldogs did finish 7-4 last season, but have never made the playoffs at the FCS level. And apropos of nothing, lest you think conference geography is only wonky at the FBS level, consider Bryant, a school located in Rhode Island, is a member of the Big South Conference. While Florida International struggled in their opener, but won, Texas State struggled and got hammered by what may end up being a pretty bad Nevada team. The Bobcats allowed just 274 yards to Nevada, but committed four turnovers and turned the ball over on downs twice allowing Nevada to cruise to victory. Texas State is no doubt the better team, but this line is way too high. Since joining FBS in 2012, Texas State has been favored by double digits against an FBS team four times. Denoting how far the program has fallen since joining FBS, each instance happened prior to 2016 when Dennis Franchione was the head coach. The Bobcats are 1-3 ATS in those games. You can't lay nearly two touchdowns with a team as bad as Texas State. If this game were later in the year, Florida International may have quit and this might be a good lay down spot. However, in just the second game of the season, I expect the Panthers to play hard and keep this one interesting. 

Northern Illinois +6 Tulsa

Tulsa was a bit unfortunate to drop their opener at Wyoming last week. The Cowboys returned a fumble and a blocked punt for a touchdown in their double overtime victory. However, while the Golden Hurricane probably 'should have' won, their defense allowed 256 yards through the air to a team that managed 30 passing yards and completed a quarter of their throws the week prior against Illinois. Now the Golden Hurricane head back to Tulsa to face a team genetically engineered to play in close games. Thomas Hammock has coached 33 games at his alma mater and 20 of those games have been decided by one score. Against Group of Five and FCS teams, the close game percentage is slightly higher (18 out of 28), so I would not expect either team to get much margin. The Huskies run the ball, milk the clock, and often go for it on fourth down. Against teams like Michigan, that is a recipe for getting blown out, but against teams with similar talent (Tulsa is dead last in the AAC in the current 247 talent composite), that has been a recipe for success. Their close win against Eastern Illinois in the opener does worry me a bit (Panthers were 1-10 last season), but again, I think they are built for close games and Tulsa did not impress either against a team that looked like it had never thrown a forward pass the week before. I'll take the Huskies to play yet another close game and potentially eke out another win. 

Eastern Michigan +11.5 Louisiana-Lafayette

Since Chris Creighton arrived in Ypsilanti prior to the 2014 season, Eastern Michigan has been making degenerates money hand over fist as a road underdog. Over his eight seasons in charge, the Eagles are 25-12-1 ATS in the role. They have been a coin flip against Power Five opponents (5-5), but against fellow Group of Five teams, they are an outstanding 20-7-1! That also includes a perfect 4-0 ATS record in non-conference games. During Creighton's first two seasons in charge, the Eagles were double digit underdogs to Group of Five teams eleven times. They were just 5-5-1 ATS in those games. Indicating how far the program has come under his watch, the Eagles have been double digit underdogs to Group of Five teams five times since 2016. They have covered each time. I know playing trends can be dangerous, but neither team's performance in their FCS scrimmage gave me the impression this line should be more than a touchdown. Eastern Michigan and Louisiana-Lafayette beat solid FCS teams (Eastern Kentucky and Southeast Louisiana) and showed they may struggle on defense (Eastern Michigan) and offense (Louisiana-Lafayette) respectively. The Ragin' Cajuns are fresh off the best season in school history, but lost their head coach, starting quarterback, and a host of defensive stalwarts. I think Eastern Michigan's phenomenal performance in the road underdog role will continue and an outright upset would not surprise me. 

New Mexico State +16 UTEP

This write up could be a copy paste from the FIU/Texas State game a few lines up. UTEP played about how one might expect against Oklahoma last week. The Miners never threatened and lost by a margin (32) close to the closing line (31). But since the Miners played in Week Zero, they also have another data point and that one did not age well. In their opener, the Miners lost at home to North Texas by 18 points. Maybe the Mean Green have got it going on, oh wait. Following their road win against the Miners, North Texas returned to Denton to host SMU. The Mustangs beat them 48-10. Check the box score if you'd like. That wasn't a fluky blowout. SMU averaged nearly nine yards per play and threw for over 400 yards on the Mean Green secondary. New Mexico State has also played two games, and while they have failed to cover in both, they did show some signs of life in the opener, particularly when freshman Gavin Frakes played. I expected Frakes to start last week against Minnesota, but the more athletic Diego Pavia got the start. I'm not sure who will start against UTEP, but I expect Frakes and Pavia to both see action as the Aggies return to their weight class after facing Minnesota on the road. UTEP has scored 13 points in both of their first two games. And if you watched any of Arizona's victory against San Diego State, you know they are missing the big play ability of receiver Jacob Cowing. Cowing averaged nearly 20 yards per catch last season, helping the Miners average over 16 yards per catch as a team. Through two games this season, the team is averaging just over 11 yards per catch. Its hard to consistently drive down the field without a big play threat. I expect UTEP to top their season average of 13 points, but they will not cover this big number.