Here once again, your weekly look at some of the upsets from a great Saturday of college football.
Washington 16 Southern Cal 13
How'd it Happen? Turnovers. The Trojan defense held the Huskies in check, limiting them to 293 total yards, including just 56 on the ground. However, 3 turnovers (compared to none for the Huskies) contributed greatly to their upset loss. The Huskies kicked a 22-yard field goal with 3 second left for the winning margin.
What Does it Mean? For the Trojans, its yet another road loss as a double-digit favorite (4 since 2006). Their national title hopes are not completely extinguished, but they are quite dimmed. The win versus Ohio State will carry a great deal of weight, but the Trojans cannot lose again if they hope to play in the BCS Championship Game. In addition, its early, but with road games at Cal and Oregon remaining, this loss may have cost them a Rose Bowl bid as well. For Washington, this is the first time they have won consecutive games snce they opened the 2007 season with wins at Syracuse and at home againsto Boise State. Its also their first Pac-10 win since upsetting Cal in November of 2007. Even with the win, a bowl game is still a long shot, as the Huskies have 5 road games in their remaining 9 contests.
Connecticut 30 Baylor 22
How'd it Happen? The Huskies came in as double-digit dogs, but walked out of Waco with a win by holding Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin to just 20 yards on the ground and only 119 yards through the air. The Huskies also had 2 players rush for over 100 yards and committed no turnovers in pulling out the straight up road upset.
What Does it Mean? For the Bears, this is significant blow to their bowl chances. They still have 2 likely wins before conference play begins (Northwestern State and Kent State), but they now have to win 3 league games to become bowl eligible. For the Huskies, it means a likely 3-1 start (with Rhode Island up next) before conference play begins, and a solid chance at a 3rd straight bowl game. Randy Edsall is one heckuva coach.
Northern Illinois 28 Purdue 21
How'd it Happen? The Huskies (sense a trend here?) jumped on the Boilermakers with a 21-point second quarter and held Purdue without an offensive touchdown until late in the 3rd quarter to pull off the upset as double-digit dogs.
What Does it Mean? For the Boilermakers, the loss makes a bowl bid an unlikely scenario. In their final non-conference game, they should be a somewhat large dog to Notre Dame. Lose that one, and it will take 5 Big 10 wins to get back to the postseason. For Northern Illinois, it represents the second good game they have played on the road against a Big 10 team (lost 28-20 to Wisconsin in their first game) and may mean they are contenders in the MAC.
Florida State 54 BYU 28
How'd it Happen? Offense and turnovers. The 'Noles scored on seemingly every possession rolling up 313 yards on the ground and forced 5 Cougar turnovers in winning as more than a touchdown dog in Provo.
What Does it Mean? For the Cougars, their BCS and national title dreams are gone (that was a fun 2 weeks). For the 'Noles, the narrow win over Jacksonville State is forgotten and with Miami's performance on Thursday, the narrow loss to the Hurricanes is forgiven. Maybe the 'Noles really are back?
Middle Tennessee State 32 Maryland 31
How'd it Happen? In a wildly entertaining, evenly played game, Alan Gendreau kicked a 19-yard field goal as time expired to give the Blue Raiders the road upset.
What Does it Mean? For Maryland, their streak of 3 straight bowls is in jeopardy. With a weakened Rutgers team left on the non-conference slate, the Terps will need at least 4 and possibly 5 conference wins to get back to the postseason. For the Blue Raiders, it marks their second straight somewhat marquee win (beat Memphis last week). It also appears the Blue Raiders have adapted to Tony Franklin's spread, rolling up 438 total yards against a BCS-conference defense. Middle Tennessee is certainly a contender in the Sun Belt race.
Colorado State 35 Nevada 20
How'd it Happen? The prevailing theme of this week's entry: turnovers. The Wolfpack turned it over 5 times. The Rams 0. The Rams led 35-6 midway through the 4th before 2 late Nevada touchdowns made it respectable.
What Does it Mean? For Nevada, they are in serious danger of falling to 0-3 with a home game versus Missouri coming up on Friday. After being expected to challenge Boise State for the WAC title this season, the Wolfpack could potentially be 0-4 before conference play begins (play UNLV after Missouri). For Colorado State, they are the most surprising 3-0 team at this point in the season, and are halfway to bowl eligibility. Such an accoplishment would be their second in as many seasons under coach Steve Fairchild. We'll find out how good they are in short order, as they travel to Provo to take on what will likely be a perturbed BYU team on Saturday.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Fab Five: Week III
Last week was a mediocre one for me. I went 5-5 bringing my record in the season to a solid 11-9. We'll try to get back to the winning ways this week.
5 Dogs I Like
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 6-4
Overall: 6-4
Boston College +7 Clemson
Give Clemson a lot of credit for staying the course last Thursday against Georgia Tech. I don't think its too far-fetched to believe that if Tommy Bowden was still the coach, the Tigers would have quit faster than Eddie Kennison in Broncos training camp (yay references). The Tigers stiffened and actually took the lead before falling to the Yellow Jackets on a field goal in the final minute. Meanwhile, Boston College has quietly gone about their business whipping up on a pair of overmatched teams (Northeastern and Kent State) by a combined score of 88-7. With the Seminoles struggle against Jacksonville State, the Wolfpacks struggle against South Carolina, the Deacons struggle with Baylor and Stanford, and the Terrapins struggle with everyone, this game will probably go a long way toward determining the eventual Atlantic Division champ. In the 4 previous meetings as conference foes, the underdog has won each matchup (BC 3-1). The Eagles could very well keep that streak alive, but at the very least they should keep this one within a touchdown.
Louisville +14 Kentucky
After dropping 4 in a row and 7 of 8 in this series, the Wildcats have won the last 2, and have contributed to cranking up the heat on Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe. As of this point in the season, we don't know a great deal about either team. Louisville beat a IAA school (Indiana State) 30-10 and permitted only 101 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, their bluegrass brethren, Kentucky, shutout a Miami of Ohio team that has yet to score through 2 games. Kentucky is at home and should certainly be the favorite, but giving nearly 2 touchdowns is entirely too much.
Virginia + 15.5 Southern Mississippi
I know it sounds crazy, but not too long ago (5 years to be exact), Virginia was believed to be a burgeoning power. 5 games into the 2004 season, the Cavs were undefeated and ranked 6th in the country while preparing to visit the 7th ranked Florida State Seminoles. The 'Noles destroyed them 36-3 and since that day, Virginia has gone just 29-28 and suffered through 2 losing seasons. Oh, and I'm also picking them to cover this spread. Why? Southern Miss is an extremely talented offensive team, but the yardage and point totals they put up in their opener against Alcorn State (631 yards and 52 points) are not likely to be repeated against a team like Virginia. Just last week another low-wattage offense (UCF) held Southern Miss to 384 yards and 26 points. If the Cavs can avoid the turnover debacle that led to their loss against William and Mary (4 lost fumbles and 3 interceptions), they should keep this one within 2 touchdowns.
Mississippi State +9 Vanderbilt
When was the last time Vanderbilt was favored by more than a touchdown against an SEC school? November 12th 2005. The 'Dores were 11-point favorites at home against Kentucky. What happened? Vandy lost 48-43 and blew their shot at bowl eligibility. Is history likely to repeat itself on Saturday? It's a definite possibility. After opening up with impressive showings against IAA schools (1030 combined yards and 90 combined points against Jackson State and Western Carolina), these historically low-fi offenses were brought back to Earth by a pair of Tigers (Auburn and LSU). Vandy managed only 210 yards of offense and 9 points against an LSU defense that was torched by Washington the previous week and Mississippi State managed only 297 yards and 24 points (7 of which came on a blocked punt) against Auburn. Look for a pretty low-scoring game that Vandy wins by about a touchdown.
Florida State +8.5 BYU
Florida State is the epitome of an undervalued stock after their narrow nail-biting win against Jacksonville State. FYI, Jacksonville State is in Alabama, not Florida. The 'Noles played reasonably well in that game, but allowed the Gamecocks to hang around thanks to 3 lost fumbles. Meanwhile, BYU throttled an overmatched Tulane team 54-3. The Cougars appear to be legit on defense, having held Oklahoma to 265 yards and 13 points (impressive even without Sam Bradford for a half) and Tulane to 162 yards and 3 points. While the Cougars have already proven they can hang with and beat one of the nation's elite, methinks this game will be very close. Remember, on their run to an undefeated season last year, Utah (who eneded the season ranked #2) needed a late onside kick recovery to beat a good, but hardly great Oregon State team at home.
Give Clemson a lot of credit for staying the course last Thursday against Georgia Tech. I don't think its too far-fetched to believe that if Tommy Bowden was still the coach, the Tigers would have quit faster than Eddie Kennison in Broncos training camp (yay references). The Tigers stiffened and actually took the lead before falling to the Yellow Jackets on a field goal in the final minute. Meanwhile, Boston College has quietly gone about their business whipping up on a pair of overmatched teams (Northeastern and Kent State) by a combined score of 88-7. With the Seminoles struggle against Jacksonville State, the Wolfpacks struggle against South Carolina, the Deacons struggle with Baylor and Stanford, and the Terrapins struggle with everyone, this game will probably go a long way toward determining the eventual Atlantic Division champ. In the 4 previous meetings as conference foes, the underdog has won each matchup (BC 3-1). The Eagles could very well keep that streak alive, but at the very least they should keep this one within a touchdown.
Louisville +14 Kentucky
After dropping 4 in a row and 7 of 8 in this series, the Wildcats have won the last 2, and have contributed to cranking up the heat on Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe. As of this point in the season, we don't know a great deal about either team. Louisville beat a IAA school (Indiana State) 30-10 and permitted only 101 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, their bluegrass brethren, Kentucky, shutout a Miami of Ohio team that has yet to score through 2 games. Kentucky is at home and should certainly be the favorite, but giving nearly 2 touchdowns is entirely too much.
Virginia + 15.5 Southern Mississippi
I know it sounds crazy, but not too long ago (5 years to be exact), Virginia was believed to be a burgeoning power. 5 games into the 2004 season, the Cavs were undefeated and ranked 6th in the country while preparing to visit the 7th ranked Florida State Seminoles. The 'Noles destroyed them 36-3 and since that day, Virginia has gone just 29-28 and suffered through 2 losing seasons. Oh, and I'm also picking them to cover this spread. Why? Southern Miss is an extremely talented offensive team, but the yardage and point totals they put up in their opener against Alcorn State (631 yards and 52 points) are not likely to be repeated against a team like Virginia. Just last week another low-wattage offense (UCF) held Southern Miss to 384 yards and 26 points. If the Cavs can avoid the turnover debacle that led to their loss against William and Mary (4 lost fumbles and 3 interceptions), they should keep this one within 2 touchdowns.
Mississippi State +9 Vanderbilt
When was the last time Vanderbilt was favored by more than a touchdown against an SEC school? November 12th 2005. The 'Dores were 11-point favorites at home against Kentucky. What happened? Vandy lost 48-43 and blew their shot at bowl eligibility. Is history likely to repeat itself on Saturday? It's a definite possibility. After opening up with impressive showings against IAA schools (1030 combined yards and 90 combined points against Jackson State and Western Carolina), these historically low-fi offenses were brought back to Earth by a pair of Tigers (Auburn and LSU). Vandy managed only 210 yards of offense and 9 points against an LSU defense that was torched by Washington the previous week and Mississippi State managed only 297 yards and 24 points (7 of which came on a blocked punt) against Auburn. Look for a pretty low-scoring game that Vandy wins by about a touchdown.
Florida State +8.5 BYU
Florida State is the epitome of an undervalued stock after their narrow nail-biting win against Jacksonville State. FYI, Jacksonville State is in Alabama, not Florida. The 'Noles played reasonably well in that game, but allowed the Gamecocks to hang around thanks to 3 lost fumbles. Meanwhile, BYU throttled an overmatched Tulane team 54-3. The Cougars appear to be legit on defense, having held Oklahoma to 265 yards and 13 points (impressive even without Sam Bradford for a half) and Tulane to 162 yards and 3 points. While the Cougars have already proven they can hang with and beat one of the nation's elite, methinks this game will be very close. Remember, on their run to an undefeated season last year, Utah (who eneded the season ranked #2) needed a late onside kick recovery to beat a good, but hardly great Oregon State team at home.
Five Faves I Like
Last Week: 2-3
Overall: 5-5
Overall: 5-5
Boise State -7.5 Fresno State
You can count on Boise State for a few things. Having a decided athletic and schematic advantage over every WAC team on their schedule, a trick here or there, and absolutely owning Fresno. Boise has covered 6 of the last 7 years against their conference rival with the lone loss both straight up and ATS in that span coming in 2005. In their OT loss to Wisconsin last week, Fresno was soft as usual on defense permitting Wisconsin to roll up 413 yards and avrage 6.2 yards per play. The Bulldogs countered by netting 468 yards of their own on offense. Despite what their reputation may be, Boise wins games with their defense. Look for them to shut down Fresno and win by at least 10.
Rutgers -15.5 Florida International
Against IA non-BCS non-conference opponents the past 3 seasons, Rutgers is 6-2 ATS winning their games by an average of 27.5 points. Rutgers looked awful in their opener against Cincinnati while FIU was somewhat competitive in their loss to Alabama. However, Rutgers proved it can still demolish overmatched opponents, winning 45-7 against Howard last week. FIU kept the game close for a while against the Tide, but were still outgained by nearly 300 yards and scored one of their 2 touchdowns via kickoff return. Its hard to envision them scoring more than 14 against Rutgers. That means 30 points by the Knights, will get the job done.
Texas A&M -19.5 Utah State
The Aggies (from Texas A&M) looked sharp in dismantling an overmatched foe over Labor Day Weekend, throttling New Mexico 41-6. In their opener, Utah State gave up 519 yards and 35 points to Utah. Look for Texas A&M to post a similar stat line and beat the other Aggies by at least 3 touchdowns.
Stanford -17 San Jose State
In his 2+ seasons at Stanford, Jim Harbaugh has seen his team be the favorite in 6 games (counting this one). 3 of those have come against San Jose State. In the previous 2, the Cardinal have covered easily, winning 37-0 as a 7-point favorite in 2007, and 23-10 as an 8-point favorite in 2008. San Jose State is not a terrible team, but they are certainly overmatched here. Last week, they kept their game with Utah close despite gaining only 264 yards and allowing 499. As long as Stanford doesn't turn the ball over, they should roll here. Look for running back Toby Gerhart to have a field day against the Spartans.
Texas -17.5 Texas Tech
Think the Longhorns might be out for a little revenge in this one? For the uninitiated, or for those with terrible memories, the Red Raiders upended the 'Horns on a last second touchdown last season. That play kept Texas from winning the Big 12 South and ultimately, likely cost them a shot at the national title. That game of course, was in Lubbock. This one is in Austin. Texas has covered the last 2 times in Austin, winning by 35 as a 17-point favorite in 2005 and by 16 as a 7-point favorite in 2007. The Texas defense should have a good day facing a Texas Tech quarterback, Taylor Potts, making his first road start. There's big upswing in talent when you go from facing North Dakota and Rice to a defense coached by Will Muschamp and recruited by Mack Brown.
You can count on Boise State for a few things. Having a decided athletic and schematic advantage over every WAC team on their schedule, a trick here or there, and absolutely owning Fresno. Boise has covered 6 of the last 7 years against their conference rival with the lone loss both straight up and ATS in that span coming in 2005. In their OT loss to Wisconsin last week, Fresno was soft as usual on defense permitting Wisconsin to roll up 413 yards and avrage 6.2 yards per play. The Bulldogs countered by netting 468 yards of their own on offense. Despite what their reputation may be, Boise wins games with their defense. Look for them to shut down Fresno and win by at least 10.
Rutgers -15.5 Florida International
Against IA non-BCS non-conference opponents the past 3 seasons, Rutgers is 6-2 ATS winning their games by an average of 27.5 points. Rutgers looked awful in their opener against Cincinnati while FIU was somewhat competitive in their loss to Alabama. However, Rutgers proved it can still demolish overmatched opponents, winning 45-7 against Howard last week. FIU kept the game close for a while against the Tide, but were still outgained by nearly 300 yards and scored one of their 2 touchdowns via kickoff return. Its hard to envision them scoring more than 14 against Rutgers. That means 30 points by the Knights, will get the job done.
Texas A&M -19.5 Utah State
The Aggies (from Texas A&M) looked sharp in dismantling an overmatched foe over Labor Day Weekend, throttling New Mexico 41-6. In their opener, Utah State gave up 519 yards and 35 points to Utah. Look for Texas A&M to post a similar stat line and beat the other Aggies by at least 3 touchdowns.
Stanford -17 San Jose State
In his 2+ seasons at Stanford, Jim Harbaugh has seen his team be the favorite in 6 games (counting this one). 3 of those have come against San Jose State. In the previous 2, the Cardinal have covered easily, winning 37-0 as a 7-point favorite in 2007, and 23-10 as an 8-point favorite in 2008. San Jose State is not a terrible team, but they are certainly overmatched here. Last week, they kept their game with Utah close despite gaining only 264 yards and allowing 499. As long as Stanford doesn't turn the ball over, they should roll here. Look for running back Toby Gerhart to have a field day against the Spartans.
Texas -17.5 Texas Tech
Think the Longhorns might be out for a little revenge in this one? For the uninitiated, or for those with terrible memories, the Red Raiders upended the 'Horns on a last second touchdown last season. That play kept Texas from winning the Big 12 South and ultimately, likely cost them a shot at the national title. That game of course, was in Lubbock. This one is in Austin. Texas has covered the last 2 times in Austin, winning by 35 as a 17-point favorite in 2005 and by 16 as a 7-point favorite in 2007. The Texas defense should have a good day facing a Texas Tech quarterback, Taylor Potts, making his first road start. There's big upswing in talent when you go from facing North Dakota and Rice to a defense coached by Will Muschamp and recruited by Mack Brown.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Any Given Saturday: The Big 12 Falls Flat
In this sporadic (though hopefully weekly) column, I'll give you some insights into a few of the weekend's upsets, including how they happened and what they mean going forward.
SMU 35 UAB 33
How'd it Happen? The Mustangs, who came in as nearly two-touchdown underdogs, stopped a 2-point conversion attempt by the Blazers with under 30 seconds to play (after previously blocking an extra point attempt earlier in the game) to hold on for the road win. SMU forced 5 UAB turnovers (though they gave the ball away 4 times themselves) and quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 3 touchdowns and 353 yards.
What Does it Mean? For SMU, they've already matched their win total from the previous two seasons (2) and ended a 17-game conference losing streak. With 5 home games and seemingly winnable road games at Washington State and Marshall on the schedule, the Mustangs have a decent shot at attaining bowl eligibility. For UAB, they may have blown their chance at a bowl bid, as they have only 3 remaining home games and must travel to both Texas A&M and Ole Miss outside the conference.
Central Michigan 29 Michigan State 27
How'd it Happen? The Spartans, more than a two-touchdown favorite, fell thanks to an exciting late-game sequence. A late controversial touchdown, a gutsy decision by Central Michigan coach Butch Jones to go for 2 and the win, a subsequent missed conversion, a recovered onside kick, a missed game-winning field goal nullified by penalty, and a subsequent make on the re-kick. This game had it all, and is what makes college football great.
What Does it Mean? For Central Michigan, it somewhat legitimizes what they've accomplished over the past 3+ seasons. Though they've won 27 games since the start of the 2006 season, their only previous victory over a team from a BCS conference had been a 37-34 win at Indiana last season. That Indiana team was awful, finishing 3-9 with 2 of the wins coming against a IAA (Muray State) and a provisional IA (Western Kentucky) team. It remains to be seen how good Michigan State will be in 2008, but I think its safe to assume their floor is mediocrity (say 5 wins). For the Spartans, this game dims the expectations for the season somewhat, and could end up costing them a bowl bid.
Michigan 38 Notre Dame 34
How'd it Happen? The Wolverines, 3-point home dogs, won a back-and-forth game in the final seconds when freshman quarterback Tate Forcier found Greg Matthews for touchdown with 11 seconds left.
What Does it Mean? For Michigan, it means a likely 4-0 start (Eastern Michigan and Indiana) before their road opener against rival Michigan State. It also means a likely spot in this week's top-25 as well as renewed enthusiasm for the program. For Notre Dame, it puts them behind the 8-ball for a potential BCS bid. The Irish will likely lose to Southern Cal, and its hard to imagine them navigating the other 9 games without a loss. Still, the Irish proved they are more than capable offensively to match up with any team with the Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate, and Michael Floyd trio.
UCLA 19 Tennessee 15
How'd it Happen? The Bruins, more than a touchdown underdog, capitalized on 4 Tennessee turnovers and beat the Vols for the second straight year. For all the good the Bruins did though, random chance played an extremely important role in this game. There were 7 total fumbles (6 by UCLA and 1 by Tennessee) in this game. UCLA recovered 6. If they had only recovered 4 or 5, the outcome could have been different.
What Does it Mean? The offenses for both teams are still very much a work in progress. After finishing 112th (UCLA) and 116th (Tennessee) in total offense last season, the Bruins put up 359 yards against San Diego State and the Vols rolled up 657 yards against Western Kentucky in their respective openers and all was right with the world. UCLA had 186 yards in this game and Tennessee had 208. Of course, both these defenses appear to be pretty strong, but its clear the offenses have not turned the corner yet.
Louisiana-Lafayette 17 Kansas State 15
How'd it Happen? The Ragin' Cajuns, a touchdown underdog at home, won when Tyler Albrecht kicked a 48-yard field goal with 32 seconds left. The Wildcats outgained the Cajuns by nearly 100 yards, but their kicker, Josh Cherry, missed two field goals and an extra point.
What Does it Mean? For Louisiana-Lafayette, they are the last remaining unbeaten Sun Belt team at 2-0. That will likely change next week when they visit LSU in Baton Rouge. However, with 2 non-conference wins, they only need 4 victories in the Sun Belt to be bowl eligible for the 4th time in 5 seasons. For Kansas State, hopes of a bowl bid in Snyder's first season back are tenuous at best now. The Wildcats have remaining non-conference games at UCLA and against Tennessee Tech. While Tennessee Tech is a likely win, they represent the second IAA school Kansas State plays. That means they need 7 victories to be bowl eligible. If the Wildcats lose to UCLA next week, that means they need 5 conference wins to get to 7 overall.
Houston 45 Oklahoma State 35
How'd it Happen? Deflections. Two key deflections aided the Cougars in their upset bid as a more than two-touchdown underdog. The first came on 4th down and resulted in a touchdown pass from Case Keenum to Bryce Beall that allowed the Cougars to regain the lead 38-35 with a little under 7 minutes left. The second resulted in a pick 6 by Jamal Robinson that provided the final margin in a 45-35 win. Aside from the deflections, the Cougars rolled up over 500 yards against the Cowboys and forced 4 turnovers.
What Does it Mean? For Houston, it means their first poll appearance since the run-n-shoot days of the early 1990s. It also sets up the biggest home game in recent Cougar history in 2 weeks when they host another Big 12 South team in Texas Tech. Win that one and the BCS whispers will start. For Oklahoma State, their Big 12 and BCS bowl hopes are not dashed, but their rep on a national level certainly is. After holding Georgia in check last week, the defense returned to its old ways against a fellow high-powered offense.
Toledo 54 Colorado 38
How'd it Happen? Colorado fell behind early and got eviscerated by the Rockets. Toledo rolled up 624 total yards and scored seemingly at will against the Buffaloes. With 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter, the score was 54-24 Toledo. To put it in other terms, Colorado looked like the team full of MAC athletes and Toledo looked like the Big 12 offense.
What Does it Mean? For Toledo it means they may be a contender in the MAC West. In addition, the Rockets, under a new head coach, could now be poised to end a run of 3 consecutive losing seasons and return to the contending status they enjoyed at the beginning of the decade. For Colorado, it puts them squarely behind the 8-ball in their hopes of reaching a bowl game in Dan Hawkins 4th season. After the way they have played the first 2 weeks, a win next week at home against Wyoming is not a gimme. Following that game, the Buffs have a bye before travelling to West Virginia on October 1st. Realistically, the Buffs should expect to be 1-3 before starting Big 12 play. This could be a long season for Colorado, and if it could also be Dan Hawkins last as coach.
SMU 35 UAB 33
How'd it Happen? The Mustangs, who came in as nearly two-touchdown underdogs, stopped a 2-point conversion attempt by the Blazers with under 30 seconds to play (after previously blocking an extra point attempt earlier in the game) to hold on for the road win. SMU forced 5 UAB turnovers (though they gave the ball away 4 times themselves) and quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 3 touchdowns and 353 yards.
What Does it Mean? For SMU, they've already matched their win total from the previous two seasons (2) and ended a 17-game conference losing streak. With 5 home games and seemingly winnable road games at Washington State and Marshall on the schedule, the Mustangs have a decent shot at attaining bowl eligibility. For UAB, they may have blown their chance at a bowl bid, as they have only 3 remaining home games and must travel to both Texas A&M and Ole Miss outside the conference.
Central Michigan 29 Michigan State 27
How'd it Happen? The Spartans, more than a two-touchdown favorite, fell thanks to an exciting late-game sequence. A late controversial touchdown, a gutsy decision by Central Michigan coach Butch Jones to go for 2 and the win, a subsequent missed conversion, a recovered onside kick, a missed game-winning field goal nullified by penalty, and a subsequent make on the re-kick. This game had it all, and is what makes college football great.
What Does it Mean? For Central Michigan, it somewhat legitimizes what they've accomplished over the past 3+ seasons. Though they've won 27 games since the start of the 2006 season, their only previous victory over a team from a BCS conference had been a 37-34 win at Indiana last season. That Indiana team was awful, finishing 3-9 with 2 of the wins coming against a IAA (Muray State) and a provisional IA (Western Kentucky) team. It remains to be seen how good Michigan State will be in 2008, but I think its safe to assume their floor is mediocrity (say 5 wins). For the Spartans, this game dims the expectations for the season somewhat, and could end up costing them a bowl bid.
Michigan 38 Notre Dame 34
How'd it Happen? The Wolverines, 3-point home dogs, won a back-and-forth game in the final seconds when freshman quarterback Tate Forcier found Greg Matthews for touchdown with 11 seconds left.
What Does it Mean? For Michigan, it means a likely 4-0 start (Eastern Michigan and Indiana) before their road opener against rival Michigan State. It also means a likely spot in this week's top-25 as well as renewed enthusiasm for the program. For Notre Dame, it puts them behind the 8-ball for a potential BCS bid. The Irish will likely lose to Southern Cal, and its hard to imagine them navigating the other 9 games without a loss. Still, the Irish proved they are more than capable offensively to match up with any team with the Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate, and Michael Floyd trio.
UCLA 19 Tennessee 15
How'd it Happen? The Bruins, more than a touchdown underdog, capitalized on 4 Tennessee turnovers and beat the Vols for the second straight year. For all the good the Bruins did though, random chance played an extremely important role in this game. There were 7 total fumbles (6 by UCLA and 1 by Tennessee) in this game. UCLA recovered 6. If they had only recovered 4 or 5, the outcome could have been different.
What Does it Mean? The offenses for both teams are still very much a work in progress. After finishing 112th (UCLA) and 116th (Tennessee) in total offense last season, the Bruins put up 359 yards against San Diego State and the Vols rolled up 657 yards against Western Kentucky in their respective openers and all was right with the world. UCLA had 186 yards in this game and Tennessee had 208. Of course, both these defenses appear to be pretty strong, but its clear the offenses have not turned the corner yet.
Louisiana-Lafayette 17 Kansas State 15
How'd it Happen? The Ragin' Cajuns, a touchdown underdog at home, won when Tyler Albrecht kicked a 48-yard field goal with 32 seconds left. The Wildcats outgained the Cajuns by nearly 100 yards, but their kicker, Josh Cherry, missed two field goals and an extra point.
What Does it Mean? For Louisiana-Lafayette, they are the last remaining unbeaten Sun Belt team at 2-0. That will likely change next week when they visit LSU in Baton Rouge. However, with 2 non-conference wins, they only need 4 victories in the Sun Belt to be bowl eligible for the 4th time in 5 seasons. For Kansas State, hopes of a bowl bid in Snyder's first season back are tenuous at best now. The Wildcats have remaining non-conference games at UCLA and against Tennessee Tech. While Tennessee Tech is a likely win, they represent the second IAA school Kansas State plays. That means they need 7 victories to be bowl eligible. If the Wildcats lose to UCLA next week, that means they need 5 conference wins to get to 7 overall.
Houston 45 Oklahoma State 35
How'd it Happen? Deflections. Two key deflections aided the Cougars in their upset bid as a more than two-touchdown underdog. The first came on 4th down and resulted in a touchdown pass from Case Keenum to Bryce Beall that allowed the Cougars to regain the lead 38-35 with a little under 7 minutes left. The second resulted in a pick 6 by Jamal Robinson that provided the final margin in a 45-35 win. Aside from the deflections, the Cougars rolled up over 500 yards against the Cowboys and forced 4 turnovers.
What Does it Mean? For Houston, it means their first poll appearance since the run-n-shoot days of the early 1990s. It also sets up the biggest home game in recent Cougar history in 2 weeks when they host another Big 12 South team in Texas Tech. Win that one and the BCS whispers will start. For Oklahoma State, their Big 12 and BCS bowl hopes are not dashed, but their rep on a national level certainly is. After holding Georgia in check last week, the defense returned to its old ways against a fellow high-powered offense.
Toledo 54 Colorado 38
How'd it Happen? Colorado fell behind early and got eviscerated by the Rockets. Toledo rolled up 624 total yards and scored seemingly at will against the Buffaloes. With 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter, the score was 54-24 Toledo. To put it in other terms, Colorado looked like the team full of MAC athletes and Toledo looked like the Big 12 offense.
What Does it Mean? For Toledo it means they may be a contender in the MAC West. In addition, the Rockets, under a new head coach, could now be poised to end a run of 3 consecutive losing seasons and return to the contending status they enjoyed at the beginning of the decade. For Colorado, it puts them squarely behind the 8-ball in their hopes of reaching a bowl game in Dan Hawkins 4th season. After the way they have played the first 2 weeks, a win next week at home against Wyoming is not a gimme. Following that game, the Buffs have a bye before travelling to West Virginia on October 1st. Realistically, the Buffs should expect to be 1-3 before starting Big 12 play. This could be a long season for Colorado, and if it could also be Dan Hawkins last as coach.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Fab Five: Week II
For once, the opening week of the season was kind to me. After beginning 4-6 in each of the first two seasons of the Fab Five, I was able to reverse course and start out 6-4. The lines certainly didn't get any easier this week, but here's my best shot. In addition, this week's Fab Five also includes an extra game that you should avoid at all cost.
5 Dogs I Like
Western Michigan +1.5 Indiana
Both these teams looked pretty bad last week, with the Broncos losing by 4 touchdowns to Michigan and the Hoosiers getting all they could handle from IAA Eastern Kentucky. The Hoosiers were unable to move the ball on the ground against the Colonels, netting only 73 yards on 31 attempts. After giving up 242 yards to the Wolverines on the ground, that's just what the doctor ordered for the Broncos. Western Michigan is no stranger to beating Big 10 foes, as they knocked off Illinois last season. Indiana is also no stranger to losing to MAC foes, having dropped contests last year to Ball State and Central Michigan. Look for history to repeat itelf in a minor Broncos upset.
Michigan +3 Notre Dame
Go ahead and blame this one on the liberal media. The Irish have looked absolutely invulnerable in their last 2 games, knocking off a pair of WAC teams by a combined score of 84-21. Jimmy Clausen's thrown for over 700 yards and 9 touchdowns in the 2 games. Needless to say, his numbers won't be as gaudy against a Michigan defense that looked to be back on its way to respectability against Western Michigan. Look for Michigan to pull off the outright upset at home.
UCF + 15.5 Southern Mississippi
After barely squeaking by Samford (& Son) 28-24, the Knights must take a road trip to Hattiesburg to face the division favorite Golden Eagles. Despite continuing their trend of anemic offensive performances that began last season (last in the nation in total offense), the Knights do have at least one positive heading into this game. The offense played much better with Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges under center. Hodges threw for 129 yards on 17 attempts after he was inserted for starter Rob Calabrese, who mustered only 28 yards on his 7 attempts. Southern Miss looked dominant in pasting IAA Alcorn State, but will have a much tougher time moving the ball against the Knights in a reletively close win.
Washington State +2.5 Vs Hawaii (at Seattle)
Despite the fact that they were drubbed yet again (39-13 versus Stanford), the Cougars actually moved the ball fairly well. Their 349 total yards was more than they gained in any game last season, save against IAA Portland State. The defense can still be referred to as generous, as they permitted Stanford to run for 288 yards at a robust 6.9 yards a pop. Still, after last season, anything can count as progress. Hawaii meanwhile escaped Central Arkansas at home (25-20) despite outgaining them by 145 yards and averaging 3 yards per play more (6.9 to 3.9). The culprit was 3 lost fumbles and an interception. In a de facto home game for the Cougars, look for them to eke out a victory, which will only be their second since bludgeoning Portland State last September.
Ohio State +7 Southern Cal
Rest assured, one day Southern Cal will lose a game to a Big 10 foe (it last happened in August of 1996 against Penn State). Under Pete Carroll, the Trojans have bludgeoned Big 10 teams in the Orange Bowl (Iowa), the Rose Bowl (Michigan, Illinois, and Penn State), and in the Coliseum (Ohio State). However, this represents their first road test against a quality Big 10 opponent. The Buckeyes are a little undervalued here after their home scare against Navy. Keep in mind the Midshipmen run an option attack that is far different from the other 116 offenses in IA football (Army, Air Force, and Georgia Tech are the other purveyors and practitioners of the Wishbone). The Trojans bring in a pro style offense with a freshman quarterback making his first road start. The Buckeyes counter with an experienced sophomore who has already quatrebacked the team in a BCS bowl. One final fact to consider: In the Trojans last two road trips against top 10 teams, they narrowly edged Notre Dame in 2005 (the Bush Push) and fell to Oregon in 2007.
Both these teams looked pretty bad last week, with the Broncos losing by 4 touchdowns to Michigan and the Hoosiers getting all they could handle from IAA Eastern Kentucky. The Hoosiers were unable to move the ball on the ground against the Colonels, netting only 73 yards on 31 attempts. After giving up 242 yards to the Wolverines on the ground, that's just what the doctor ordered for the Broncos. Western Michigan is no stranger to beating Big 10 foes, as they knocked off Illinois last season. Indiana is also no stranger to losing to MAC foes, having dropped contests last year to Ball State and Central Michigan. Look for history to repeat itelf in a minor Broncos upset.
Michigan +3 Notre Dame
Go ahead and blame this one on the liberal media. The Irish have looked absolutely invulnerable in their last 2 games, knocking off a pair of WAC teams by a combined score of 84-21. Jimmy Clausen's thrown for over 700 yards and 9 touchdowns in the 2 games. Needless to say, his numbers won't be as gaudy against a Michigan defense that looked to be back on its way to respectability against Western Michigan. Look for Michigan to pull off the outright upset at home.
UCF + 15.5 Southern Mississippi
After barely squeaking by Samford (& Son) 28-24, the Knights must take a road trip to Hattiesburg to face the division favorite Golden Eagles. Despite continuing their trend of anemic offensive performances that began last season (last in the nation in total offense), the Knights do have at least one positive heading into this game. The offense played much better with Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges under center. Hodges threw for 129 yards on 17 attempts after he was inserted for starter Rob Calabrese, who mustered only 28 yards on his 7 attempts. Southern Miss looked dominant in pasting IAA Alcorn State, but will have a much tougher time moving the ball against the Knights in a reletively close win.
Washington State +2.5 Vs Hawaii (at Seattle)
Despite the fact that they were drubbed yet again (39-13 versus Stanford), the Cougars actually moved the ball fairly well. Their 349 total yards was more than they gained in any game last season, save against IAA Portland State. The defense can still be referred to as generous, as they permitted Stanford to run for 288 yards at a robust 6.9 yards a pop. Still, after last season, anything can count as progress. Hawaii meanwhile escaped Central Arkansas at home (25-20) despite outgaining them by 145 yards and averaging 3 yards per play more (6.9 to 3.9). The culprit was 3 lost fumbles and an interception. In a de facto home game for the Cougars, look for them to eke out a victory, which will only be their second since bludgeoning Portland State last September.
Ohio State +7 Southern Cal
Rest assured, one day Southern Cal will lose a game to a Big 10 foe (it last happened in August of 1996 against Penn State). Under Pete Carroll, the Trojans have bludgeoned Big 10 teams in the Orange Bowl (Iowa), the Rose Bowl (Michigan, Illinois, and Penn State), and in the Coliseum (Ohio State). However, this represents their first road test against a quality Big 10 opponent. The Buckeyes are a little undervalued here after their home scare against Navy. Keep in mind the Midshipmen run an option attack that is far different from the other 116 offenses in IA football (Army, Air Force, and Georgia Tech are the other purveyors and practitioners of the Wishbone). The Trojans bring in a pro style offense with a freshman quarterback making his first road start. The Buckeyes counter with an experienced sophomore who has already quatrebacked the team in a BCS bowl. One final fact to consider: In the Trojans last two road trips against top 10 teams, they narrowly edged Notre Dame in 2005 (the Bush Push) and fell to Oregon in 2007.
Five Faves I Like
Colorado -3.5 Toledo
Colorado spit the bit at home against arch-rival Colorado State on Sunday night, losing 23-17. Things don't get much easier this week as they head east to tangle with another mid-major, the Toledo Rockets. The Rockets were less than impressive in their debut, allowing Purdue to roll up 535 yards (315 of it on the ground) and average 8 yards per play in a 52-31 loss. The Toledo defense will be just what Colorado needs to aid their anemic offense in putting points on the board. For one night at least, the Buffs will remind coach Dan Hawkins of his former charges in Boise, Idaho as they roll up 30+ points on the Rockets.
Pitt -10.5 Buffalo
Turner Gill continues to show he has the Midas touch with the Bulls after they opened the season with a hard-fought win at UTEP. The Bulls will come back to Earth against a team that actually plays defense (unlike the Miners). Give the Panthers credit for making the trek to upstate New York. The trip back should be a joyful one after a relatively easy win.
Washington -21 Idaho
Whether or not they actually cover this somewhat large number, this game will mark Steve Sarkisian's first win as head coach of the Huskies and will also be the Huskies first win since upsetting Cal in November of 2007. The Huskies were sharp offensively last week, cranking out nearly 500 yards against LSU. They should easily reach that number against Idaho, and if the defense does its part an easy win is in the coffers.
Wisconsin -9 Fresno State
Fresno State is a lot like Notre Dame. They both made a name for themselves many years ago (Notre Dame's was many, many years ago), and continue to live off that rep despite increasingly diminishing returns. The Bulldogs ran for 310 yards last week against UC Davis, allowing them to win easily with despite breaking in a new starting quarterback. Going into the game against the Badgers, Fresno quarterbacks have a combined total of 17 career pass attempts. Junior Ryan Colburn is the elder statesman with 14 career passes. That inexperience will do them in when they visit the Camp Randall Stadium.
Kansas -12.5 UTEP
Since bursting onto the national scene in 2007, Kansas has been money in the bank against non-BCS foes. They are 4-1 ATS against non-BCS teams in that span, with their smallest margin of victory a 29-0 shutout of Louisiana Tech last season. In addition, Kansas is 7-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite and 10-2 ATS as at least a touchdown favorite. Look for the Jayhawks to put up 40+ and roll here.
AVOID THIS GAME
TCU -11.5 Virginia
If there's one thing Al Groh is a master of, its saving his own hide. Like Rasputin or a zombie, the man just won't die. In 2007, the Cavs opened the season getting beatdown at Wyoming 23-3. They would go on to win 9 games and nearly take the division. Last season, the Cavs opened 1-3 with an embrassing 31-3 loss to Duke thrown in. They won their next 4 games (Maryland, East Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech) as a betting underdog in each. Virginia looked awful in losing to William and Mary, but they also turned the ball over 7 times. That's not likely to happen again. I don't think Virginia will win this game, but (and I'd like to trademark this phrase) you never know with Al Groh.
Colorado spit the bit at home against arch-rival Colorado State on Sunday night, losing 23-17. Things don't get much easier this week as they head east to tangle with another mid-major, the Toledo Rockets. The Rockets were less than impressive in their debut, allowing Purdue to roll up 535 yards (315 of it on the ground) and average 8 yards per play in a 52-31 loss. The Toledo defense will be just what Colorado needs to aid their anemic offense in putting points on the board. For one night at least, the Buffs will remind coach Dan Hawkins of his former charges in Boise, Idaho as they roll up 30+ points on the Rockets.
Pitt -10.5 Buffalo
Turner Gill continues to show he has the Midas touch with the Bulls after they opened the season with a hard-fought win at UTEP. The Bulls will come back to Earth against a team that actually plays defense (unlike the Miners). Give the Panthers credit for making the trek to upstate New York. The trip back should be a joyful one after a relatively easy win.
Washington -21 Idaho
Whether or not they actually cover this somewhat large number, this game will mark Steve Sarkisian's first win as head coach of the Huskies and will also be the Huskies first win since upsetting Cal in November of 2007. The Huskies were sharp offensively last week, cranking out nearly 500 yards against LSU. They should easily reach that number against Idaho, and if the defense does its part an easy win is in the coffers.
Wisconsin -9 Fresno State
Fresno State is a lot like Notre Dame. They both made a name for themselves many years ago (Notre Dame's was many, many years ago), and continue to live off that rep despite increasingly diminishing returns. The Bulldogs ran for 310 yards last week against UC Davis, allowing them to win easily with despite breaking in a new starting quarterback. Going into the game against the Badgers, Fresno quarterbacks have a combined total of 17 career pass attempts. Junior Ryan Colburn is the elder statesman with 14 career passes. That inexperience will do them in when they visit the Camp Randall Stadium.
Kansas -12.5 UTEP
Since bursting onto the national scene in 2007, Kansas has been money in the bank against non-BCS foes. They are 4-1 ATS against non-BCS teams in that span, with their smallest margin of victory a 29-0 shutout of Louisiana Tech last season. In addition, Kansas is 7-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite and 10-2 ATS as at least a touchdown favorite. Look for the Jayhawks to put up 40+ and roll here.
AVOID THIS GAME
TCU -11.5 Virginia
If there's one thing Al Groh is a master of, its saving his own hide. Like Rasputin or a zombie, the man just won't die. In 2007, the Cavs opened the season getting beatdown at Wyoming 23-3. They would go on to win 9 games and nearly take the division. Last season, the Cavs opened 1-3 with an embrassing 31-3 loss to Duke thrown in. They won their next 4 games (Maryland, East Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech) as a betting underdog in each. Virginia looked awful in losing to William and Mary, but they also turned the ball over 7 times. That's not likely to happen again. I don't think Virginia will win this game, but (and I'd like to trademark this phrase) you never know with Al Groh.
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
Fab Five: Week I
It's that time of year again. The college football season is just mere hours away. That means tailgates, pageantry, hard-hitting action, and most importantly spreads. That's right degenerates, the Fab 5 is back again. Each week I'll give you 5 dogs and 5 favorites I like for the coming weekend. I for one, found these Week I lines to be awful difficult to handicap. So, like John Mellencamp, this is the best that I could do (home teams in Bold).
5 Dogs I Like
South Carolina +5 NC State
This is a huge game for both teams, albeit for different reasons. NC State fancies themselves a darkhorse contender in the ACC (who isn't?), and could use this game, along with 7 additional home games as the springboard to a special season. On the other side, South Carolina needs this game, perhaps to achieve bowl eligibility with 9 other bowl teams from 2008 on the slate after this one. In my opinion, this game will be a battle of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness. NC State was the second most productive offense in the ACC last season behind quarterback Russell Wilson. South Carolina boasted the fifth ranked defense in the SEC last season, and that includes their utter collapse down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack featured the ACC's worst defense (yes, even Duke was better), while the Gamecocks countered with the seventh best offense in the SEC. The Wolfpack defense will be hard-pressed to get much better with the loss of their best player, linebacker Nate Irving, to a car crash in June. As long as Stephen Garcia does not have a turnover-fest like he did in the Outback Bowl, the Gamecocks should cover and could even win outright.
New Mexico +14 Texas A&M
I'm a little hesitant to back the Lobos here as they have a new coach, who is implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball. However, the Lobos do return a senior quarterback, Donovan Porterie, who was injured for much of last season. In addition, Texas A&M has not exactly been money at home against non-BCS foes. In 2007, they edged Fresno State 47-45 in triple OT as a 17 point favorite. Last season, they lost their home opener to Arkansas State as a 19 point favorite and also squeaked by Army 21-17 as a 27 point favorite. Expect more of the same here in a game that is closer than it should be.
Virginia Tech + 6.5 Vs Alabama
Defense and special teams should dominate this game. Virginia Tech was the best defense in the ACC last season, and Alabama finished a close second to Tennessee in the SEC. The Hokies have 7 starters back on defense while the Tide have 9. The issue for the Tide here will be on offense, where they lose 3 starting offensive linemen, a senior quarterback, and last season's leading rusher. The Hokie defense will likely be licking their chops against against a relatively inexperienced quarterback. Alabama may well have the defensive strength to win this game, but it should be closer than a touchdown.
Washington +17.5 LSU
Before you call me crazy for picking a winless team to cover against one of the dominant programs of the 00's, take a look at these facts. In the last 3 seasons, LSU has been a double-digit favorite 20 times. They are 7-13 ATS in those games. They were 0-4 ATS in those situations last season. While the Huskies will probably not be very good this season, they do return 18 total starters, including 10 on defense. They also bring back quarterback Jake Locker, who was injured for a majority of the 2008 season. This game will be a lot closer than most people think.
Colorado State +10 Colorado
Prior to last season, when Colorado won by 21 points, the previous 6 games in the series had been decided by a total of 25 points. Colorado was exceptionally weak on offense last season (last in the Big 12), and pretty strong on defense (fourth in the Big 12). They return 9 starters on offense, so improvement on that end in likely. However, they only bring back 4 starters on defense, so the gains on offense will likely be offset by losses on defense. Colorado State was a surprise bowl team last season, and is widely regarded as a lower tier Mountain West team this season. That projection is probably right on, but I expect a close contest in this rivalry game.
South Carolina +5 NC State
This is a huge game for both teams, albeit for different reasons. NC State fancies themselves a darkhorse contender in the ACC (who isn't?), and could use this game, along with 7 additional home games as the springboard to a special season. On the other side, South Carolina needs this game, perhaps to achieve bowl eligibility with 9 other bowl teams from 2008 on the slate after this one. In my opinion, this game will be a battle of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness. NC State was the second most productive offense in the ACC last season behind quarterback Russell Wilson. South Carolina boasted the fifth ranked defense in the SEC last season, and that includes their utter collapse down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack featured the ACC's worst defense (yes, even Duke was better), while the Gamecocks countered with the seventh best offense in the SEC. The Wolfpack defense will be hard-pressed to get much better with the loss of their best player, linebacker Nate Irving, to a car crash in June. As long as Stephen Garcia does not have a turnover-fest like he did in the Outback Bowl, the Gamecocks should cover and could even win outright.
New Mexico +14 Texas A&M
I'm a little hesitant to back the Lobos here as they have a new coach, who is implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball. However, the Lobos do return a senior quarterback, Donovan Porterie, who was injured for much of last season. In addition, Texas A&M has not exactly been money at home against non-BCS foes. In 2007, they edged Fresno State 47-45 in triple OT as a 17 point favorite. Last season, they lost their home opener to Arkansas State as a 19 point favorite and also squeaked by Army 21-17 as a 27 point favorite. Expect more of the same here in a game that is closer than it should be.
Virginia Tech + 6.5 Vs Alabama
Defense and special teams should dominate this game. Virginia Tech was the best defense in the ACC last season, and Alabama finished a close second to Tennessee in the SEC. The Hokies have 7 starters back on defense while the Tide have 9. The issue for the Tide here will be on offense, where they lose 3 starting offensive linemen, a senior quarterback, and last season's leading rusher. The Hokie defense will likely be licking their chops against against a relatively inexperienced quarterback. Alabama may well have the defensive strength to win this game, but it should be closer than a touchdown.
Washington +17.5 LSU
Before you call me crazy for picking a winless team to cover against one of the dominant programs of the 00's, take a look at these facts. In the last 3 seasons, LSU has been a double-digit favorite 20 times. They are 7-13 ATS in those games. They were 0-4 ATS in those situations last season. While the Huskies will probably not be very good this season, they do return 18 total starters, including 10 on defense. They also bring back quarterback Jake Locker, who was injured for a majority of the 2008 season. This game will be a lot closer than most people think.
Colorado State +10 Colorado
Prior to last season, when Colorado won by 21 points, the previous 6 games in the series had been decided by a total of 25 points. Colorado was exceptionally weak on offense last season (last in the Big 12), and pretty strong on defense (fourth in the Big 12). They return 9 starters on offense, so improvement on that end in likely. However, they only bring back 4 starters on defense, so the gains on offense will likely be offset by losses on defense. Colorado State was a surprise bowl team last season, and is widely regarded as a lower tier Mountain West team this season. That projection is probably right on, but I expect a close contest in this rivalry game.
Five Faves I Like
Purdue -10.5 Toledo
Purdue was better than you thought they were last season. Based on their yardage totals in league play, they were roughly the sixth best team, a little above the bowl-bound outfit of Northwestern. Punt coverage, one of those hidden yardage stats, killed the Boilers last season as they allowed an NCAA worst 16.7 yards per return and gave up 3 touchdowns. For 2009, the Boilers have a new coach (Danny Hope), but Hope is quite familiar with the program, having been the OL coach under Joe Tiller from 1997-2001 and assistant head coach last season. Toledo also comes into this game with a new coach, and a reputation for putting up great offensive numbers. However, a cursory look at the statistics shows that not really the case. In the MAC last season, Toledo gained more yards than Temple. That's it. Away from the friendly confines of the Glass Bowl, Toledo put up over 20 points only twice (Eastern Michigan and Akron) and that trend is likely to continue in a double-digit loss to Purdue.
Connecticut -3.5 Ohio
Don't get me wrong, I think Ohio has a great chance at winning their division in the MAC this season. However, the Huskies from Connecticut remind a lot of Wake Forest. You watch them play, and you wonder how do they win? And yet at the end of the season, they are bowl eligible. The Huskies lost a lot in the offseason (chief among those losses was running back Donald Brown), but the Huskies do return the leading rusher from 2007, Andre Dixon. Dixon split carries with Brown in 2007, and actually outrushed him. The Huskies also lose their quarterback from last season, but that may be a blessing is disguise as Tyler Lorenzen completed less than half his passes and managed only 3 touchdown throws. This one should be a low-scoring affair won by the Huskies by about a touchdown.
Auburn -13.5 Louisiana Tech
Last season Louisiana Tech shocked an SEC team on their home field over Labor Day weekend when they upset Mississippi State. Don't expect it to happen again. The Bulldogs won their first bowl game since 1977 last season, so expectations are little higher than normal in Ruston. However, the Bulldogs are only 4-14 ATS as a road dog the past 3 seasons. Auburn, even in their trainwreck of a season in 2008, still played solid defense (seventh in the SEC). The Bulldogs will have a hard time moving the ball and Auburn should cruise here.
New Mexico State -3 Idaho
Learn the name DeWayne Walker. He may be coaching your team in a few years if he can get blood from a stone at New Mexico State. Walker was UCLA's defensive coordinator the past 3 seasons, and routinely captained very good units. The Aggies probably won't be too good this season, but neither will the Vandals from Idaho. And since this game is in Las Crues, take the Aggies.
Arizona -13.5 Central Michigan
Trusting the 'Lesser Stoops' to do anything always seems a little risky. However, he has quietly built a solid program in Tucson that has improve steadily since he took over in 2004. The Wildcats crushed their two non-conference home foes by a combined score of 111-16 last season. It won't be quite that bad for Central Michigan, as they have Tim-Tebow light in quarterback Dan LeFevour. However, what they lack, is a defense. They were the second worst defense in the MAC last season, and while they return 10 starters on that side, that likely means they can aspire to be an average MAC defense. Even with a new quarterback, Arizona should have no trouble moving the ball.
Purdue -10.5 Toledo
Purdue was better than you thought they were last season. Based on their yardage totals in league play, they were roughly the sixth best team, a little above the bowl-bound outfit of Northwestern. Punt coverage, one of those hidden yardage stats, killed the Boilers last season as they allowed an NCAA worst 16.7 yards per return and gave up 3 touchdowns. For 2009, the Boilers have a new coach (Danny Hope), but Hope is quite familiar with the program, having been the OL coach under Joe Tiller from 1997-2001 and assistant head coach last season. Toledo also comes into this game with a new coach, and a reputation for putting up great offensive numbers. However, a cursory look at the statistics shows that not really the case. In the MAC last season, Toledo gained more yards than Temple. That's it. Away from the friendly confines of the Glass Bowl, Toledo put up over 20 points only twice (Eastern Michigan and Akron) and that trend is likely to continue in a double-digit loss to Purdue.
Connecticut -3.5 Ohio
Don't get me wrong, I think Ohio has a great chance at winning their division in the MAC this season. However, the Huskies from Connecticut remind a lot of Wake Forest. You watch them play, and you wonder how do they win? And yet at the end of the season, they are bowl eligible. The Huskies lost a lot in the offseason (chief among those losses was running back Donald Brown), but the Huskies do return the leading rusher from 2007, Andre Dixon. Dixon split carries with Brown in 2007, and actually outrushed him. The Huskies also lose their quarterback from last season, but that may be a blessing is disguise as Tyler Lorenzen completed less than half his passes and managed only 3 touchdown throws. This one should be a low-scoring affair won by the Huskies by about a touchdown.
Auburn -13.5 Louisiana Tech
Last season Louisiana Tech shocked an SEC team on their home field over Labor Day weekend when they upset Mississippi State. Don't expect it to happen again. The Bulldogs won their first bowl game since 1977 last season, so expectations are little higher than normal in Ruston. However, the Bulldogs are only 4-14 ATS as a road dog the past 3 seasons. Auburn, even in their trainwreck of a season in 2008, still played solid defense (seventh in the SEC). The Bulldogs will have a hard time moving the ball and Auburn should cruise here.
New Mexico State -3 Idaho
Learn the name DeWayne Walker. He may be coaching your team in a few years if he can get blood from a stone at New Mexico State. Walker was UCLA's defensive coordinator the past 3 seasons, and routinely captained very good units. The Aggies probably won't be too good this season, but neither will the Vandals from Idaho. And since this game is in Las Crues, take the Aggies.
Arizona -13.5 Central Michigan
Trusting the 'Lesser Stoops' to do anything always seems a little risky. However, he has quietly built a solid program in Tucson that has improve steadily since he took over in 2004. The Wildcats crushed their two non-conference home foes by a combined score of 111-16 last season. It won't be quite that bad for Central Michigan, as they have Tim-Tebow light in quarterback Dan LeFevour. However, what they lack, is a defense. They were the second worst defense in the MAC last season, and while they return 10 starters on that side, that likely means they can aspire to be an average MAC defense. Even with a new quarterback, Arizona should have no trouble moving the ball.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Similarity Scores: Stephen Garcia and Robert Griffin
With the season nigh upon us, I wanted to use my most recent little toy, similarity scores, to project what the future may hold for two sophomore quarterbacks. I chose these two quarterbacks because they are both interesting and are likely to occupy a lot of my viewing attention in Week 1. As a Columbia resident, I will be watching with great interest to see if Stephen Garcia is finally the quarterback Steve Spurrier needs to run his offense with great success at South Carolina. And as a Wake Forest fan, I will be watching Robert Griffin, hoping against hope, that the rebuilt Deacon defense can contain him enough to give the team a shot to win. To find out how I determined similarity scores, take a look at last week's entry.
We'll begin with the supposed offense gem of Steve Spurrier's efforts thus far at South Carolina. Garcia got into a little trouble in his first year with the Gamecocks and did not see action until his redshirt freshman season. His play was, at best erratic, and at worst putrid. Splitting time with Chris Smelley, Garcia threw 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions while rushing for almost 200 yards. The 5 most similar freshman quarterbacks since 2004 are:
1. Riley Nelson, Utah State, 2006, 92.1
2. Blake Szymanski, Baylor, 2006, 88.7
3. Julian Foster, Troy. 2005, 86.8
4. Ben Mauk, Wake Forest, 2005, 86.8
5. Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech, 2007, 86.4
How did those 5 quarterbacks perform as sophomores? To answer that question, we'll have to find two more quarterbacks as Nelson did not play for Utah State again and Foster threw only 6 passes as a sophomore (and for the rest of his career at Troy). Taking their place amongst Garcia's similar freshman are:
6. Donovan Porterie, New Mexico, 2006, 85.4
7. Kyle McMahon, Eastern Michigan, 2007, 84.6
Collectively, those players put up the following average stat line as sophomores.
There is not exactly a whole lot to like here. Mauk and Taylor struggled mightily as passers, throwing a combined 3 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Szymanski and Porterie posted the best passing numbers, combining for 37 touchdowns and 27 interceptions. McMahon saw very limited action, throwing only 73 passes all season. No quarterback enjoyed a great season, but then again, none besides possibly Taylor, were as sought after as Garcia was out of high school. Maybe Garcia will 'get it' in his first season as 'the guy', but for Gamecock fans, it may be best to curb your enthusiasm.
On the other end of the freshman spectrum is Robert Griffin. Griffin started almost immediately as a true freshman and enjoyed a stellar season. His quarterback rating of 142.0 ranked 27th in the nation, and his three interceptions tied him for the second fewest among qualifying quarterbacks. He also added 13 scores and rushed for over 800 yards on the ground. The 5 most similar freshman quarterbacks to Robert Griffin since 2004 are:
1. Matt Grothe, South Florida, 2006, 80.4
2. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada, 2007, 73.6
3. Shaun Carney, Air Force, 2004, 73.0
4. Case Keenum, Houston, 2007, 69.6
5. Pat White, West Virginia, 2005, 67.9
As you can see, the scores for Griffin's comps are much lower than those for Garcia. That's not extremely surprising, as Griffin is a very unique player, particularly as a freshman. It's also interesting that another player coached by Art Briles (Griffin's coach at Baylor) appears on this list (Keenum was coached by Briles at Houston). Here's how those 5 gentlemen performed collectively on average as sophomores.
Overall, they stayed pretty good. The numbers are inflated a little by Keenum's ridiculous sophomore campaign that saw him toss 44 touchdowns and throw for over 5000 yards. Griffin won't come close to touching those numbers, primarily because he won't throw nearly as many passes as Keenum did (587). Still, I think its safe to assume Griffin will not fall victim to a sophomore slump. His interception total will likely increase from the miniscule 3 he tossed as a freshman, but he will continue to be a nightmare for defensive players to deal with.
We'll begin with the supposed offense gem of Steve Spurrier's efforts thus far at South Carolina. Garcia got into a little trouble in his first year with the Gamecocks and did not see action until his redshirt freshman season. His play was, at best erratic, and at worst putrid. Splitting time with Chris Smelley, Garcia threw 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions while rushing for almost 200 yards. The 5 most similar freshman quarterbacks since 2004 are:
1. Riley Nelson, Utah State, 2006, 92.1
2. Blake Szymanski, Baylor, 2006, 88.7
3. Julian Foster, Troy. 2005, 86.8
4. Ben Mauk, Wake Forest, 2005, 86.8
5. Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech, 2007, 86.4
How did those 5 quarterbacks perform as sophomores? To answer that question, we'll have to find two more quarterbacks as Nelson did not play for Utah State again and Foster threw only 6 passes as a sophomore (and for the rest of his career at Troy). Taking their place amongst Garcia's similar freshman are:
6. Donovan Porterie, New Mexico, 2006, 85.4
7. Kyle McMahon, Eastern Michigan, 2007, 84.6
Collectively, those players put up the following average stat line as sophomores.
There is not exactly a whole lot to like here. Mauk and Taylor struggled mightily as passers, throwing a combined 3 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Szymanski and Porterie posted the best passing numbers, combining for 37 touchdowns and 27 interceptions. McMahon saw very limited action, throwing only 73 passes all season. No quarterback enjoyed a great season, but then again, none besides possibly Taylor, were as sought after as Garcia was out of high school. Maybe Garcia will 'get it' in his first season as 'the guy', but for Gamecock fans, it may be best to curb your enthusiasm.
On the other end of the freshman spectrum is Robert Griffin. Griffin started almost immediately as a true freshman and enjoyed a stellar season. His quarterback rating of 142.0 ranked 27th in the nation, and his three interceptions tied him for the second fewest among qualifying quarterbacks. He also added 13 scores and rushed for over 800 yards on the ground. The 5 most similar freshman quarterbacks to Robert Griffin since 2004 are:
1. Matt Grothe, South Florida, 2006, 80.4
2. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada, 2007, 73.6
3. Shaun Carney, Air Force, 2004, 73.0
4. Case Keenum, Houston, 2007, 69.6
5. Pat White, West Virginia, 2005, 67.9
As you can see, the scores for Griffin's comps are much lower than those for Garcia. That's not extremely surprising, as Griffin is a very unique player, particularly as a freshman. It's also interesting that another player coached by Art Briles (Griffin's coach at Baylor) appears on this list (Keenum was coached by Briles at Houston). Here's how those 5 gentlemen performed collectively on average as sophomores.
Overall, they stayed pretty good. The numbers are inflated a little by Keenum's ridiculous sophomore campaign that saw him toss 44 touchdowns and throw for over 5000 yards. Griffin won't come close to touching those numbers, primarily because he won't throw nearly as many passes as Keenum did (587). Still, I think its safe to assume Griffin will not fall victim to a sophomore slump. His interception total will likely increase from the miniscule 3 he tossed as a freshman, but he will continue to be a nightmare for defensive players to deal with.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Twitter-ific Preview: MAC and the Independents
It's almost time, can you feel it? We're just a little more than a week away from kickoff of the 2009 college football season, so its time for my iron-clad predictions for each conference race. Since Twitter is all the rage with kids now, my predictions will come in scrumptuous, bite size blurbs. Rest asured though, a lot of thought, effort, and excel spreadsheets went into these predictons. After the predictions, I'll give you an interesting fact about each team you may not have known, followed by a short statistical prose about a player or team from the particular conference I happen to be previewing. Theres something for everyone here. If all you want is some nuggets of insight, you can be happily on your way, but if you want a more polished look at the conference feel free to stay and read the whole thing. I'm doing this Noah-style, as we'll go two-by-two until the season starts. In this final preview, we examine the MAC the three remaining IA Independents.
I, for one, was a bit surprised by the MAC projections my predictor model spit out. It projects 6 teams (almost half the league) to finish even in conference play, and 10 of the 13 teams to finish within a single game of the .500 mark. Who do they think they are, the ACC? I thought I'd use the extended part of this post to do a little more in-depth explanation of why this is so.
For starters. the MAC West is projected to be much stronger than the East. Of their 18 games against East foes, the system projects the West to win 12 of them (or 2/3rds). That's why every team in the West is projected to have at least a .500 conference record. Now I'll go team by team and offer a little insight into the projection model.
Western Michigan--Broncos were 6-2 last season, but won three league games by a combined 16 points (one in OT). Their two losses (to Central Michigan and Ball State) were by double digits. The projection model is also wary of a defense, average by league standards last season, that returns only 3 starters.
Northern Illinois--Huskies paired a weak offense (10th in the conference in yards gained) with the league's best defense to go 5-3 in 2008. The model forsees slight progression by the offense (7 starters return) coupled with a bigger regression by the defense (4 starters return).
Eastern Michigan--The system likes the pedigree of the head coach (Ron English) to help the defense go from awful to presentably bad and the 9 returning starters on offense to help the Eagles improve by 2 games in the standings.
Ball State--The system hates the losses on offense (NFL-caliber quarterback and four offensive linemen including 3 All-Conference players) and sees the defense declining slightly. A 4 game decline may seem a bit steep, but remember the Cardinals play in the much stronger MAC West.
Toledo--The system likes the veteran offense to go from bad to average and the defense to maintain its position (8th in the league last season in yards allowed), making for a 2 game improvement.
Akron--Zips had only the 6th ranked offense last season, but 2nd best in the East. The system sees them as the best in the East this season with 9 starters, including a senior quarterback returning. It predicts only marginal improvement from a bad defense (10th in yards allowed last season) for a 1 game improvement.
Kent State--The best offense in the East loses its quarterback, but brings back 4 starting offensive linemen and starting running back in a run-based offense. The defense also returns 7 starters so the system likes them to hold their place. SDPI, the statistic on which the majority of the predictor model is based, also saw the Flashes as much better then their 3-5 league mark last season.
Temple--The Owls were 4-4 last season, but the league's worst offense loses its senior quarterback. An average defense returns 9 starters, so improvement is likely on that end. Owls must also face 2 road games against the West.
Buffalo--System is extremely wary of Bulls great turnover margin (+10 in league play last year) and their great luck recovering fumbles. Bulls also lose senior quarterback Drew Willy. The system does like the defense to improve with 8 starters back.
Bowling Green--The manic-depressive projection. On the one hand, the Falcons lost their 4 league games by a combined 19 points and boasted the second-best point differential last season. On the other hand, the strength of last year's team, the defense (2nd in the conference in yards allowed last season) returns only 3 starters. Add a new coach plus 3 games versus the West, and the result is a losing record.
How good is Jimmy Clausen? Clausen, you may remember, was a much balleyhooed recruit who was thrown to the wolves his freshman season playing behind a young and bad Notre Dame offensive line. The results were not pretty. Clausen averaged just a shade over 5 yards per pass as a freshman with 7 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions as the Irish suffered through a miserable season wherein they finished 3-9 and averaged only 242 yards per game (dead last in the nation). Calusen rebounded as a sophomore, playing with a more experienced team, throwing 25 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, while ranking a respectable 43rd in the nation in quarterback rating. The team improved as well, going 7-6 and ranking as a middle of the road offense, averaging 355 yards per game (65th in the nation). So is Clausen primed for even more improvement as a junior? The answer, unfortunately, is likely 'Yes'.
To answer this question, I devised a rough estimate of a similarity score. Similarity scores were invented by Bill James, noted baseball statistician, to estimate a player's future performance based on how similar players have performed in the past. The similarity score formula I used is a little rough (and will likely be tweaked in the offseason), but is listed below.
100-[(difference in pass attempts/10)+(difference in completion %)+(difference in yards per pass*2)+(difference in touchdown passes/3)+(difference in interceptions/3)+(difference in QB rating/10)+(difference in rush attempts/10)+(difference in rush yards/50)+(difference in rushing touchdowns/3)
A higher score means a player is more similar, and vice-versa. What I wanted to do with this metric is calculate similarity scores for Clausen's freshman and sophomore seasons. To keep the measure more accurate, I only compared Clausen's freshman season to other freshman seasons, and likewise for his sophomore campaign. It makes no sense to compare Clausen's freshman season to other players' senior or junior seasons. Clausen started almost immediately as a freshman, posting relatively abysmal numbers. However, he has three more years to grow and progress. A junior or senior quarterback who posts similar numbers has no time to progress, and offers no insight into how Calusen's career will take shape. With that being said, here are the 5 most similar freshman quarterbacks to Jimmy Clausen ranked by similarity scores (I only looked at quarterbacks from the 2005-2007 seasons).
1. Drew Willy, Buffalo, 2005, 85.1
2. Rusty Smith, FAU, 2006, 83.5
3. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, 2006, 82.6
4. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, 2006, 79.7
5. Aaron Opelt, Toledo, 2006, 78.9
Some of these guys are pretty famous. Stafford and Freeman were selected in the 1st round of the NFL Draft in April. However, each player was pretty bad in his freshman season. None of the 5 quarterbacks posted a passer rating over 114. No quarterback threw more than 7 touchdown passes, and only Opelt had more touchdowns than interceptions (6-5). But amazingly, these guys all improved significantly as sophomores. Just like Clausen. Here's their cumulative average stat line as sophomores compared to Clausen's sophomore campaign (the final 3 columns are rushing numbers).
This similarity score seems to do a pretty good job of identifying players who are truly similar, and also of projecting what's to come. So what can we expect from Clausen as a junior? Here are the 5 most similar sophomore quarterbacks to Clausen (once again 2005-2007 only).
1. Rusty Smith, FAU, 2007, 84.0
2. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, 2007, 83.8
3. Curtis Painter, Purdue, 2006, 79.1
4. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, 2007, 77.4
5. Rudy Carpenter, Arizona State, 2006, 75.3
This list is very similar to the freshman list with two new names thrown in. Here's how those 5 quarterbacks performed collectively as juniors.
Once again, we have significant improvement. The rushing numbers are a skewed quite a bit by Josh Freeman. After running for -40 yards and 4 touchdowns as a freshman, Freeman rushed for 400 yards and 14 touchdowns as a sophomore. Besides the rushing numbers, I would say this is a solid projection for Clausen's 2009 stat line. It looks like he is destined to improve even more as junior. Remember this when the media starts hyping Clausen as a darkhorse Heisman candidate in late-October.
MAC Prediction
MAC: Muy Interesante
Independents Prediction
Independents: Muy Interesante
The MAC Mish-Mash
I, for one, was a bit surprised by the MAC projections my predictor model spit out. It projects 6 teams (almost half the league) to finish even in conference play, and 10 of the 13 teams to finish within a single game of the .500 mark. Who do they think they are, the ACC? I thought I'd use the extended part of this post to do a little more in-depth explanation of why this is so.
For starters. the MAC West is projected to be much stronger than the East. Of their 18 games against East foes, the system projects the West to win 12 of them (or 2/3rds). That's why every team in the West is projected to have at least a .500 conference record. Now I'll go team by team and offer a little insight into the projection model.
Western Michigan--Broncos were 6-2 last season, but won three league games by a combined 16 points (one in OT). Their two losses (to Central Michigan and Ball State) were by double digits. The projection model is also wary of a defense, average by league standards last season, that returns only 3 starters.
Northern Illinois--Huskies paired a weak offense (10th in the conference in yards gained) with the league's best defense to go 5-3 in 2008. The model forsees slight progression by the offense (7 starters return) coupled with a bigger regression by the defense (4 starters return).
Eastern Michigan--The system likes the pedigree of the head coach (Ron English) to help the defense go from awful to presentably bad and the 9 returning starters on offense to help the Eagles improve by 2 games in the standings.
Ball State--The system hates the losses on offense (NFL-caliber quarterback and four offensive linemen including 3 All-Conference players) and sees the defense declining slightly. A 4 game decline may seem a bit steep, but remember the Cardinals play in the much stronger MAC West.
Toledo--The system likes the veteran offense to go from bad to average and the defense to maintain its position (8th in the league last season in yards allowed), making for a 2 game improvement.
Akron--Zips had only the 6th ranked offense last season, but 2nd best in the East. The system sees them as the best in the East this season with 9 starters, including a senior quarterback returning. It predicts only marginal improvement from a bad defense (10th in yards allowed last season) for a 1 game improvement.
Kent State--The best offense in the East loses its quarterback, but brings back 4 starting offensive linemen and starting running back in a run-based offense. The defense also returns 7 starters so the system likes them to hold their place. SDPI, the statistic on which the majority of the predictor model is based, also saw the Flashes as much better then their 3-5 league mark last season.
Temple--The Owls were 4-4 last season, but the league's worst offense loses its senior quarterback. An average defense returns 9 starters, so improvement is likely on that end. Owls must also face 2 road games against the West.
Buffalo--System is extremely wary of Bulls great turnover margin (+10 in league play last year) and their great luck recovering fumbles. Bulls also lose senior quarterback Drew Willy. The system does like the defense to improve with 8 starters back.
Bowling Green--The manic-depressive projection. On the one hand, the Falcons lost their 4 league games by a combined 19 points and boasted the second-best point differential last season. On the other hand, the strength of last year's team, the defense (2nd in the conference in yards allowed last season) returns only 3 starters. Add a new coach plus 3 games versus the West, and the result is a losing record.
What Can We Expect From Jimmy Clausen?
How good is Jimmy Clausen? Clausen, you may remember, was a much balleyhooed recruit who was thrown to the wolves his freshman season playing behind a young and bad Notre Dame offensive line. The results were not pretty. Clausen averaged just a shade over 5 yards per pass as a freshman with 7 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions as the Irish suffered through a miserable season wherein they finished 3-9 and averaged only 242 yards per game (dead last in the nation). Calusen rebounded as a sophomore, playing with a more experienced team, throwing 25 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, while ranking a respectable 43rd in the nation in quarterback rating. The team improved as well, going 7-6 and ranking as a middle of the road offense, averaging 355 yards per game (65th in the nation). So is Clausen primed for even more improvement as a junior? The answer, unfortunately, is likely 'Yes'.
To answer this question, I devised a rough estimate of a similarity score. Similarity scores were invented by Bill James, noted baseball statistician, to estimate a player's future performance based on how similar players have performed in the past. The similarity score formula I used is a little rough (and will likely be tweaked in the offseason), but is listed below.
100-[(difference in pass attempts/10)+(difference in completion %)+(difference in yards per pass*2)+(difference in touchdown passes/3)+(difference in interceptions/3)+(difference in QB rating/10)+(difference in rush attempts/10)+(difference in rush yards/50)+(difference in rushing touchdowns/3)
A higher score means a player is more similar, and vice-versa. What I wanted to do with this metric is calculate similarity scores for Clausen's freshman and sophomore seasons. To keep the measure more accurate, I only compared Clausen's freshman season to other freshman seasons, and likewise for his sophomore campaign. It makes no sense to compare Clausen's freshman season to other players' senior or junior seasons. Clausen started almost immediately as a freshman, posting relatively abysmal numbers. However, he has three more years to grow and progress. A junior or senior quarterback who posts similar numbers has no time to progress, and offers no insight into how Calusen's career will take shape. With that being said, here are the 5 most similar freshman quarterbacks to Jimmy Clausen ranked by similarity scores (I only looked at quarterbacks from the 2005-2007 seasons).
1. Drew Willy, Buffalo, 2005, 85.1
2. Rusty Smith, FAU, 2006, 83.5
3. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, 2006, 82.6
4. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, 2006, 79.7
5. Aaron Opelt, Toledo, 2006, 78.9
Some of these guys are pretty famous. Stafford and Freeman were selected in the 1st round of the NFL Draft in April. However, each player was pretty bad in his freshman season. None of the 5 quarterbacks posted a passer rating over 114. No quarterback threw more than 7 touchdown passes, and only Opelt had more touchdowns than interceptions (6-5). But amazingly, these guys all improved significantly as sophomores. Just like Clausen. Here's their cumulative average stat line as sophomores compared to Clausen's sophomore campaign (the final 3 columns are rushing numbers).
This similarity score seems to do a pretty good job of identifying players who are truly similar, and also of projecting what's to come. So what can we expect from Clausen as a junior? Here are the 5 most similar sophomore quarterbacks to Clausen (once again 2005-2007 only).1. Rusty Smith, FAU, 2007, 84.0
2. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, 2007, 83.8
3. Curtis Painter, Purdue, 2006, 79.1
4. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, 2007, 77.4
5. Rudy Carpenter, Arizona State, 2006, 75.3
This list is very similar to the freshman list with two new names thrown in. Here's how those 5 quarterbacks performed collectively as juniors.
Once again, we have significant improvement. The rushing numbers are a skewed quite a bit by Josh Freeman. After running for -40 yards and 4 touchdowns as a freshman, Freeman rushed for 400 yards and 14 touchdowns as a sophomore. Besides the rushing numbers, I would say this is a solid projection for Clausen's 2009 stat line. It looks like he is destined to improve even more as junior. Remember this when the media starts hyping Clausen as a darkhorse Heisman candidate in late-October.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Twitter-ific Preview: Conference USA and Sun Belt
It's almost time, can you feel it? We're just a little more than 2 weeks away from kickoff of the 2009 college football season, so its time for my iron-clad predictions for each conference race. Since Twitter is all the rage with kids now, my predictions will come in scrumptuous, bite size blurbs. Rest asured though, a lot of thought, effort, and excel spreadsheets went into these predictons. After the predictions, I'll give you an interesting fact about each team you may not have known, followed by a short statistical prose about a player or team from the particular conference I happen to be previewing. Theres something for everyone here. If all you want is some nuggets of insight, you can be happily on your way, but if you want a more polished look at the conference feel free to stay and read the whole thing. I'm doing this Noah-style, as we'll go two-by-two until the season starts. This week, we examine Conference USA and the Sun Belt.
The lone conference to produce three quarterbacks with 40 or more touchdown passes last season was Conference USA. The three players who accomplished said feat were David Johnson of Tulsa with 46 touchdown passes, Case Keenum of Houston with 44, and Chase Clement of Rice with 44. Not only did these three quarterbacks play in the same conference, they also played in the same division! Not surprisingly, each team also enjoyed a successful season, as each won their bowl game and they combined for 29 wins versus just 11 losses. In conference play they were even better, combining for a 20-4 record. Of their four losses, three came versus each other, in a sort of Rock/Paper/Scissors circle. Tulsa blasted Rice by 35, Houston hung 70 on Tulsa in a 40-point win, and with the division on the line, Rice beat Houston by 14, handing the title to Tulsa. The only other team to beat the triumverate in the league last season (until the title game of course) was Marshall, who upset Houston. Unfortunately for Rice and Tulsa, Johnson and Clement have exhausted their eligibility meaning Houston has a definitive leg (or arm) up in their quest to take the West division in 2009.
If you're the Sun Belt, widely regarded as the weakest conference in all of IA football, how do you measure progress? One way would be to look at your record against the rest of the IA-football playing world. In its present incarnation (with the exception of adding Western Kentucky for the upcoming 2009 season), the Sun Belt has looked the same since 2005. Here's how they've done outside the league since then (the 2007 and 2008 numbers do not included any games played by Western Kentucky, a provisional IA member at the time).
As you can see, the Sun Belt was effectively an amalgamation of IAA schools, at least performance-wise, in 2005. Their only victory outside the league that season was Middle Tennessee State's upset of Vanderbilt that kept the Commodores from bowl-eligibility. They improved a little in 2006, failing to record a win versus a BCS school, but winning more than a third of their games against fellow non-BCS members. The league kept improving in 2007, winning thrice against the big boys, including upsets of two bowl-bound teams (Oklahoma State by Troy and the infamous victory by La-Monroe over Alabama). The league treaded water in 2008, beating two big boys (Texas A&M by Arkansas State and Maryland by Middle Tennesse State), but failing to capture any other notable scalps. But if we look at a different set of numbers, it looks like the Sun Belt may have enjoyed its finest season ever in 2008.
Last season, Sun Belt members won only twice against BCS members, but they were much more competitive. Florida International lost by only 8 versus South Florida from the Big East. La-Lafayette (now called simply Louisiana) lost by just 3 at Illinois and by 8 at Kansas State. La-Monroe nearly pulled a second consecutive shocker losing to Arkansas by a single point. Middle Tennessee State not only beat Maryland, but also played Kentucky within 6 points and Mississippi State within 9. And who can forget the biggest near miss of all, Troy's 9 point loss to LSU in Death Valley, a game they were winning at one point 31-3. If you're the Sun Belt, you measure success by not getting pounded by the big boys. And if you're a big boy playing any Sun Belt member besides North Texas and Western Kentucky this season, take heed and don't look past them.
Conference USA Prediction
Conference USA: Muy Interesante
Sun Belt Prediction
Sun Belt: Muy Interesante
40-40-40 Club
The lone conference to produce three quarterbacks with 40 or more touchdown passes last season was Conference USA. The three players who accomplished said feat were David Johnson of Tulsa with 46 touchdown passes, Case Keenum of Houston with 44, and Chase Clement of Rice with 44. Not only did these three quarterbacks play in the same conference, they also played in the same division! Not surprisingly, each team also enjoyed a successful season, as each won their bowl game and they combined for 29 wins versus just 11 losses. In conference play they were even better, combining for a 20-4 record. Of their four losses, three came versus each other, in a sort of Rock/Paper/Scissors circle. Tulsa blasted Rice by 35, Houston hung 70 on Tulsa in a 40-point win, and with the division on the line, Rice beat Houston by 14, handing the title to Tulsa. The only other team to beat the triumverate in the league last season (until the title game of course) was Marshall, who upset Houston. Unfortunately for Rice and Tulsa, Johnson and Clement have exhausted their eligibility meaning Houston has a definitive leg (or arm) up in their quest to take the West division in 2009.
It's About The Climb
If you're the Sun Belt, widely regarded as the weakest conference in all of IA football, how do you measure progress? One way would be to look at your record against the rest of the IA-football playing world. In its present incarnation (with the exception of adding Western Kentucky for the upcoming 2009 season), the Sun Belt has looked the same since 2005. Here's how they've done outside the league since then (the 2007 and 2008 numbers do not included any games played by Western Kentucky, a provisional IA member at the time).
As you can see, the Sun Belt was effectively an amalgamation of IAA schools, at least performance-wise, in 2005. Their only victory outside the league that season was Middle Tennessee State's upset of Vanderbilt that kept the Commodores from bowl-eligibility. They improved a little in 2006, failing to record a win versus a BCS school, but winning more than a third of their games against fellow non-BCS members. The league kept improving in 2007, winning thrice against the big boys, including upsets of two bowl-bound teams (Oklahoma State by Troy and the infamous victory by La-Monroe over Alabama). The league treaded water in 2008, beating two big boys (Texas A&M by Arkansas State and Maryland by Middle Tennesse State), but failing to capture any other notable scalps. But if we look at a different set of numbers, it looks like the Sun Belt may have enjoyed its finest season ever in 2008.
Last season, Sun Belt members won only twice against BCS members, but they were much more competitive. Florida International lost by only 8 versus South Florida from the Big East. La-Lafayette (now called simply Louisiana) lost by just 3 at Illinois and by 8 at Kansas State. La-Monroe nearly pulled a second consecutive shocker losing to Arkansas by a single point. Middle Tennessee State not only beat Maryland, but also played Kentucky within 6 points and Mississippi State within 9. And who can forget the biggest near miss of all, Troy's 9 point loss to LSU in Death Valley, a game they were winning at one point 31-3. If you're the Sun Belt, you measure success by not getting pounded by the big boys. And if you're a big boy playing any Sun Belt member besides North Texas and Western Kentucky this season, take heed and don't look past them.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Twitter-ific Preview: Mountain West and WAC
It's almost time, can you feel it? We're just a little more than 3 weeks away from kickoff of the 2009 college football season, so its time for my iron-clad predictions for each conference race. Since Twitter is all the rage with kids now, my predictions will come in scrumptuous, bite size blurbs. Rest asured though, a lot of thought, effort, and excel spreadsheets went into these predictons. After the predictions, I'll give you an interesting fact about each team you may not have known, followed by a short statistical prose about a player or team from the particular conference I happen to be previewing. Theres something for everyone here. If all you want is some nuggets of insight, you can be happily on your way, but if you want a more polished look at the conference feel free to stay and read the whole thing. I'm doing this Noah-style, as we'll go two-by-two until the season starts. This week, we examine the Mountain West and the WAC.
The long and arduous offseason is an excellent time to reflect on the season that was. 2008 was unique in that it ended with a team from outside the 6 BCS leagues ranked as high as #2 in the nation in some polls. The Utah Utes finished the season 13-0 with a victory over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. 4 season earlier, Utah also finished undefeated (12-0) with a victory over Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl. Which Utah team was better? Let's break it down by the numbers and decide. We'll start with SDPI. I won't go into detail explaining it again, as there are numerous posts on this blog dealing with the subject. Here are the yardage SDPI rankings (Mountain West games only) for Utah in 2004 and 2008.
The 2004 version of the Utes was stronger than the 2008 version against their conference brethren. In 2004, the team with the second highest SDPI in the league was BYU. Their rating of 0.90 is more than 1 full standard deviation below Utah's. In 2008, Utah did not even have the best SDPI in the league. That honor belongs to the TCU Horned Frogs who posted an SDPI nearly double that of the Utes at 2.92. If you feel like reading my previous write-up of the Mountain West in 2008, the link is here. If we stopped here we would have to give a huge edge to 2004 Utah. But let's look at some other stats.
In 2004, Utah's 12 opponents finished with a combined record of 61-76. They faced only 4 teams that finished the season with winning records. None of those 4 teams (Texas A&M, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Pitt) finished better than 8-4. The 2008 team played 13 games, but one of those was against IAA Weber State. If we leave the Wildcats out of the equation, the 12 IA teams Utah played finished with a combined record of 78-73. Utah beat 6 teams that finished with winning records (Air Force, Oregon State, Colorado State, TCU, BYU, and Alabama), including 3 that finished with at least 10 wins (TCU, BYU, and Alabama). Here are teams that finished the season ranked in the t0p-25 that were beaten by Utah in 2004 and 2008.
As you can see, the 2008 Utah team had a much tougher schedule and pulled some much bigger scalps. They defeated 2 legitimate top-10 teams, while the 2004 team beat one fringe top-25 team.
Another way to measure schedule strength is to look at 2nd order wins. 2nd order wins are wins by teams that you have beaten. Here are the 2nd order top-25 wins (teams that finished in the top-25) for both Utah teams.
Both teams have 5 2nd order top-25 wins, but clearly again the heft belongs to the 2008 team. The 2008 team has 4 2nd order wins in the top-15, including a top-5 2nd order win, whereas the 2004 team has one solitary 2nd order win in the top-15. Here's a break down of the 2nd order wins. In 2004, Utah beat North Carolina, who upset later Miami. Utah also beat New Mexico and Texas A&M, who both went on to beat Texas Tech. They also beat Arizona, who upset their rival Arizona State. Finally, they defeated Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl. The Panthers had beaten Boston College earlier in the year. In 2008, Utah beat Oregon State, who had previously knocked off Southern Cal. They beat TCU, who had already defeated BYU and would go on to defeat Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Finally, in the Sugar Bowl, Utah upset Alabama, who had previously defeated both Georgia and Ole Miss.
Lastly, here are some sundry statistics.
As you can see, the 2004 team was much more dominant, winning games by an average of 6 points per game more than the 2008 team. The 2008 team was involved in 5 games decided by 7 points or less, including 4 decided by 3 points or less. They won all 5. No team came closer than 14 points against the 2004 team. The 2004 team was much better offensively, with future number one pick Alex Smith running Urban Meyer's offense to perfection (it will never work in the SEC). The 2008 team was much better on defense with second round pick Paul Kruger causing nightmares for opposing offenses with a team-leading 7.5 sacks. The final column is Pythagorean Win %, which is calculated by dividing the square of the points scored by the sum of the squares of the points scored and points allowed (actually to the power of 2.37 to be exact). The Pythagorean Win % rewards better defenses, as you can by the small difference in winning percentage despite the large gap in point differential.
So who's better? Well, if you totally ignore schedule strength, the 2004 team is the pick. They were never challenged all season and were clearly the dominant force in the Mountain West. However, schedule strength is vital to correctly ranking teams. Going undefeated in the Sun Belt is nowhere near as difficult as going undefeated in the SEC. For that reason, I have to give the nod to the 2008 team. Despite possibly not being the best team in their conference, the fact that they beat 2 top-10 teams as well as a host of other solid teams is impossible to ignore. Perhaps if the BCS had given us what we really wanted, an Auburn/Utah Sugar Bowl in 2004, we might know just how good that Utah team was. Unfortunately, the Utes were matched up against the weakest BCS team from that season, and we can only wonder how sweet that Sugar Bowl could have been.
If you pulled a Rip Van Winkle or Captain America and took a long nap or just chilled in suspended animation beginning in the fall of 1995 and just woke up a few minutes ago, lemme tell ya, the WAC you know is no more ;(
In 1995, the WAC consisted of 10 teams--Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah, UTEP, and Wyoming. Prior to the 1996 season, the WAC added 6 more teams (UNLV, TCU, Rice, SMU, Tulsa, and San Jose State) and split into two divisions. The conference hosted a championship game for three seasons (1996-1998), but by 1999, half the league had had enough. Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah, and Wyoming split to form the Mountain West. The remaining 8 teams soldiered on as the WAC, and prior to the 2000 season added Nevada to bring their membership to 9 teams. TCU bolted after the 2000 season, but the WAC, in perhaps their shrewdest manuever extended an invite to a relatively unknown program that played their home games on a blue field--Boise State. The WAC also added Louisiana Tech that season, givng them 10 teams. This formation lasted an eternity (4 seasons), but prior to the 2005 season, Rice, SMU, UTEP, and Tulsa left to join Conference USA. The WAC responded to this exodus by adding 3 teams from the dregs of IA football--Idaho, New Mexico State, and Utah State. This incarnation of the WAC will begin its 5th season of play shortly, thus making it the most stable version of the WAC in the last decade and a half. If you were scoring at home, only 2 teams remain from the 1995 version of the WAC (Fresno State and Hawaii).
Mountain West Prediction
Mountain West: Muy Interesante
WAC Prediction
WAC: Muy Interesante
Which Utah Team is Better? 2004 or 2008
The long and arduous offseason is an excellent time to reflect on the season that was. 2008 was unique in that it ended with a team from outside the 6 BCS leagues ranked as high as #2 in the nation in some polls. The Utah Utes finished the season 13-0 with a victory over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. 4 season earlier, Utah also finished undefeated (12-0) with a victory over Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl. Which Utah team was better? Let's break it down by the numbers and decide. We'll start with SDPI. I won't go into detail explaining it again, as there are numerous posts on this blog dealing with the subject. Here are the yardage SDPI rankings (Mountain West games only) for Utah in 2004 and 2008.
The 2004 version of the Utes was stronger than the 2008 version against their conference brethren. In 2004, the team with the second highest SDPI in the league was BYU. Their rating of 0.90 is more than 1 full standard deviation below Utah's. In 2008, Utah did not even have the best SDPI in the league. That honor belongs to the TCU Horned Frogs who posted an SDPI nearly double that of the Utes at 2.92. If you feel like reading my previous write-up of the Mountain West in 2008, the link is here. If we stopped here we would have to give a huge edge to 2004 Utah. But let's look at some other stats.In 2004, Utah's 12 opponents finished with a combined record of 61-76. They faced only 4 teams that finished the season with winning records. None of those 4 teams (Texas A&M, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Pitt) finished better than 8-4. The 2008 team played 13 games, but one of those was against IAA Weber State. If we leave the Wildcats out of the equation, the 12 IA teams Utah played finished with a combined record of 78-73. Utah beat 6 teams that finished with winning records (Air Force, Oregon State, Colorado State, TCU, BYU, and Alabama), including 3 that finished with at least 10 wins (TCU, BYU, and Alabama). Here are teams that finished the season ranked in the t0p-25 that were beaten by Utah in 2004 and 2008.
As you can see, the 2008 Utah team had a much tougher schedule and pulled some much bigger scalps. They defeated 2 legitimate top-10 teams, while the 2004 team beat one fringe top-25 team.Another way to measure schedule strength is to look at 2nd order wins. 2nd order wins are wins by teams that you have beaten. Here are the 2nd order top-25 wins (teams that finished in the top-25) for both Utah teams.
Both teams have 5 2nd order top-25 wins, but clearly again the heft belongs to the 2008 team. The 2008 team has 4 2nd order wins in the top-15, including a top-5 2nd order win, whereas the 2004 team has one solitary 2nd order win in the top-15. Here's a break down of the 2nd order wins. In 2004, Utah beat North Carolina, who upset later Miami. Utah also beat New Mexico and Texas A&M, who both went on to beat Texas Tech. They also beat Arizona, who upset their rival Arizona State. Finally, they defeated Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl. The Panthers had beaten Boston College earlier in the year. In 2008, Utah beat Oregon State, who had previously knocked off Southern Cal. They beat TCU, who had already defeated BYU and would go on to defeat Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Finally, in the Sugar Bowl, Utah upset Alabama, who had previously defeated both Georgia and Ole Miss.Lastly, here are some sundry statistics.
As you can see, the 2004 team was much more dominant, winning games by an average of 6 points per game more than the 2008 team. The 2008 team was involved in 5 games decided by 7 points or less, including 4 decided by 3 points or less. They won all 5. No team came closer than 14 points against the 2004 team. The 2004 team was much better offensively, with future number one pick Alex Smith running Urban Meyer's offense to perfection (it will never work in the SEC). The 2008 team was much better on defense with second round pick Paul Kruger causing nightmares for opposing offenses with a team-leading 7.5 sacks. The final column is Pythagorean Win %, which is calculated by dividing the square of the points scored by the sum of the squares of the points scored and points allowed (actually to the power of 2.37 to be exact). The Pythagorean Win % rewards better defenses, as you can by the small difference in winning percentage despite the large gap in point differential.So who's better? Well, if you totally ignore schedule strength, the 2004 team is the pick. They were never challenged all season and were clearly the dominant force in the Mountain West. However, schedule strength is vital to correctly ranking teams. Going undefeated in the Sun Belt is nowhere near as difficult as going undefeated in the SEC. For that reason, I have to give the nod to the 2008 team. Despite possibly not being the best team in their conference, the fact that they beat 2 top-10 teams as well as a host of other solid teams is impossible to ignore. Perhaps if the BCS had given us what we really wanted, an Auburn/Utah Sugar Bowl in 2004, we might know just how good that Utah team was. Unfortunately, the Utes were matched up against the weakest BCS team from that season, and we can only wonder how sweet that Sugar Bowl could have been.
A Brief History of the WAC
If you pulled a Rip Van Winkle or Captain America and took a long nap or just chilled in suspended animation beginning in the fall of 1995 and just woke up a few minutes ago, lemme tell ya, the WAC you know is no more ;(
In 1995, the WAC consisted of 10 teams--Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah, UTEP, and Wyoming. Prior to the 1996 season, the WAC added 6 more teams (UNLV, TCU, Rice, SMU, Tulsa, and San Jose State) and split into two divisions. The conference hosted a championship game for three seasons (1996-1998), but by 1999, half the league had had enough. Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah, and Wyoming split to form the Mountain West. The remaining 8 teams soldiered on as the WAC, and prior to the 2000 season added Nevada to bring their membership to 9 teams. TCU bolted after the 2000 season, but the WAC, in perhaps their shrewdest manuever extended an invite to a relatively unknown program that played their home games on a blue field--Boise State. The WAC also added Louisiana Tech that season, givng them 10 teams. This formation lasted an eternity (4 seasons), but prior to the 2005 season, Rice, SMU, UTEP, and Tulsa left to join Conference USA. The WAC responded to this exodus by adding 3 teams from the dregs of IA football--Idaho, New Mexico State, and Utah State. This incarnation of the WAC will begin its 5th season of play shortly, thus making it the most stable version of the WAC in the last decade and a half. If you were scoring at home, only 2 teams remain from the 1995 version of the WAC (Fresno State and Hawaii).
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Twitter-ific Preview: Pac-10 and SEC
It's almost time, can you feel it? We're just a little more than 4 weeks away from kickoff of the 2009 college football season, so its time for my iron-clad predictions for each conference race. Since Twitter is all the rage with kids now, my predictions will come in scrumptuous, bite size blurbs. Rest asured though, a lot of thought, effort, and excel spreadsheets went into these predictons. After the predictions, I'll give you an interesting fact about each team you may not have known, followed by a short statistical prose about a player or team from the particular conference I happen to be previewing. Theres something for everyone here. If all you want is some nuggets of insight, you can be happily on your way, but if you want a more polished look at the conference feel free to stay and read the whole thing. I'm doing this Noah-style, as we'll go two-by-two until the season starts. This week, we examine the Pac-10 and SEC.
Over the past three seasons, the Oregon State Beavers have acquitted themselves as the best team in the Pac-10 not named Southern Cal. The Beavers are 19-8 versus conference foes in that span, three games behind the Trojans and three games clear of Oregon and Cal. In addition, the Beavers are the only team to have beaten the Trojans twice in that same time period. One big reason for the Beaver's success has been the play of wide receiver Sammie Stroughter. I am now going to construct an argument, albeit, a potentially circumstantial and arbitrary one, identifying Stroughter as the most important member of the Oregon State offense. The following table lists the Oregon State cumulative team passing numbers from 2005 and 2006.
Why is this important you ask? In 2005, Stroughter was a sophomore who rarely saw the field on offense. He caught only 5 passes all season and was used primarily as a punt and kickoff returner. As a junior in 2006, Stroughter emerged as a playmaker, catching 74 balls for 1293 yards. The team's passing as a whole also improved dramatically. The primary quarterback in both 2005 and 2006 was Matt Moore, who plays in the NFL. It's entirely possible Moore's improvement was simply the natural progression of an NFL-caliber player, but its hard to ignore the effect Stroughter's emergence had on the team's passing game. The next table lists the team passing numbers from 2007 and 2008.
As a senior in 2007, Stroughter played in only four games and caught passes in only two (15 catches on the season). He was able to obtain a redshirt for a fifth season of eligibility. As a healthy fifth-year senior in 2008, Stroughter caught 70 passes and gained 1040 yards. Once again the team's passing fortunes improved with further contributions from Strougter. Just like in 05/06 there was no new quarterback in 07/08. Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao split time in 2007, with Canfield throwing about twice the number of passes as Moevao. Both were terrible, sporting quarterback ratings of 106.38 for Canfield and 98.77 for Moevao. Both also played markedly better in 2008. Moevao took the majority of the snaps, and posted a quarterback rating of 128.41. In limited action, Canfield posted a rating of 155.78. Again, perhaps their improvement just happened to coincide with the return of Stroughter. Both men are back for their senior seasons in 2009. Keep an eye on how well they perform sans Stroughter. If they regress significantly, it will become increasingly difficult to decry the passing game's improvement with Stroughter as happenstance.
Know who was second in the SEC in rushing yards per game last season? Know who is the second-leading returning rusher in 2009? They're the same person. Michael Smith from Arkansas was second in the SEC in rushing yards per game last season (behind Knowshon Moreno) and was fourth overall in rushing yardage behind Moreno, Glen Coffee, and Charles Scott. Smith accomplished this feat despite missing two games (the season opener against Western Illinois and the finale against LSU) and playing for an Arkansas team that went only 5-7. Smith is overshadowed, not only because of his somewhat generic last name, but also because of those who came before him. In Smith's first two seasons at Arkansas, he backed up one of the most explosive running back duos in college football history--Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. In 2006 and 2007, McFadden and Jones combined for 5807 yards rushing and 47 touchdowns. While Smith won't come close to matching those prodigious numbers, but he would be a wise choice to snatch up for your collegiate fantasy football team and is a darkhorse contender for the Doak Walker Award, given annually to the nation's top running back. Here are a few reasons why.
1. Despite having a reputation as a quarterback guru, running backs under Bobby Petrino have also posted some pretty good numbers. At Louisville in 2004, top-running back Eric Shelton gained 938 yards on the ground and scored 20 touchdowns. In 2005, top-runner Michael Bush gained 1143 yards and scored 23 touchdowns. Petrino used more of a committee approach in his first (2003) and last season (2006) at Louisville, but if Smith establishes himself as the go-to guy, Petrino will not be shy about giving him touches.
2. Arkansas should be better this season. Last season, Arkansas lost games by 35, 42, and 31 points (to Alabama, Texas, and Florida). Arkansas ran the ball an average of 27 times in those three games. In their other 9 games, the Hogs ran the ball an average of 33 times per game. Fewer blowout losses and more wins mean more runs, and more runs means more potential touches for Smith.
3. The passing game should be better. No offense to Casey Dick, but he wasn't exactly the prototypical quarterback Bobby Petrino desires. For his career, Dick completed about 55.6% of his passes, with 2008 his best season at 57.4%. At Louisville, Petrino's quarterbacks never completed fewer than 60.5% of their passes over an entire season. Stepping in to replace Dick is Ryan Mallet, the top-rated recruit from 2007, who began his career at Michigan. I'd wager any amount that Petrino is able to coax at worst a solid season, and potentially a great season, out of Mallet. And if opponents have to fear the passing game for the first time since the days of Clint Stoerner, that should open more lanes for Smith in the running game.
4. Smith has value as a receiver. No, he's not Reggie Bush, but Smith was second on the team in catches last season (32) and sixth in yards (298). From the looks of things, a lot of those were dump-offs from Dick, so he may see his catches drop, but with the defense likely concerned with bigger threats further down the field, he could see his yardage and touchdown totals increase.
If he can stay healthy, Michael Smith may just well be the best running back in the SEC in 2009.
Pac-10 Prediction
Pac-10: Muy Interesante
SEC Prediction
SEC: Muy Interesante
Sgt Stroughter
Over the past three seasons, the Oregon State Beavers have acquitted themselves as the best team in the Pac-10 not named Southern Cal. The Beavers are 19-8 versus conference foes in that span, three games behind the Trojans and three games clear of Oregon and Cal. In addition, the Beavers are the only team to have beaten the Trojans twice in that same time period. One big reason for the Beaver's success has been the play of wide receiver Sammie Stroughter. I am now going to construct an argument, albeit, a potentially circumstantial and arbitrary one, identifying Stroughter as the most important member of the Oregon State offense. The following table lists the Oregon State cumulative team passing numbers from 2005 and 2006.
Why is this important you ask? In 2005, Stroughter was a sophomore who rarely saw the field on offense. He caught only 5 passes all season and was used primarily as a punt and kickoff returner. As a junior in 2006, Stroughter emerged as a playmaker, catching 74 balls for 1293 yards. The team's passing as a whole also improved dramatically. The primary quarterback in both 2005 and 2006 was Matt Moore, who plays in the NFL. It's entirely possible Moore's improvement was simply the natural progression of an NFL-caliber player, but its hard to ignore the effect Stroughter's emergence had on the team's passing game. The next table lists the team passing numbers from 2007 and 2008.
As a senior in 2007, Stroughter played in only four games and caught passes in only two (15 catches on the season). He was able to obtain a redshirt for a fifth season of eligibility. As a healthy fifth-year senior in 2008, Stroughter caught 70 passes and gained 1040 yards. Once again the team's passing fortunes improved with further contributions from Strougter. Just like in 05/06 there was no new quarterback in 07/08. Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao split time in 2007, with Canfield throwing about twice the number of passes as Moevao. Both were terrible, sporting quarterback ratings of 106.38 for Canfield and 98.77 for Moevao. Both also played markedly better in 2008. Moevao took the majority of the snaps, and posted a quarterback rating of 128.41. In limited action, Canfield posted a rating of 155.78. Again, perhaps their improvement just happened to coincide with the return of Stroughter. Both men are back for their senior seasons in 2009. Keep an eye on how well they perform sans Stroughter. If they regress significantly, it will become increasingly difficult to decry the passing game's improvement with Stroughter as happenstance.Revenge of the Smith
Know who was second in the SEC in rushing yards per game last season? Know who is the second-leading returning rusher in 2009? They're the same person. Michael Smith from Arkansas was second in the SEC in rushing yards per game last season (behind Knowshon Moreno) and was fourth overall in rushing yardage behind Moreno, Glen Coffee, and Charles Scott. Smith accomplished this feat despite missing two games (the season opener against Western Illinois and the finale against LSU) and playing for an Arkansas team that went only 5-7. Smith is overshadowed, not only because of his somewhat generic last name, but also because of those who came before him. In Smith's first two seasons at Arkansas, he backed up one of the most explosive running back duos in college football history--Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. In 2006 and 2007, McFadden and Jones combined for 5807 yards rushing and 47 touchdowns. While Smith won't come close to matching those prodigious numbers, but he would be a wise choice to snatch up for your collegiate fantasy football team and is a darkhorse contender for the Doak Walker Award, given annually to the nation's top running back. Here are a few reasons why.
1. Despite having a reputation as a quarterback guru, running backs under Bobby Petrino have also posted some pretty good numbers. At Louisville in 2004, top-running back Eric Shelton gained 938 yards on the ground and scored 20 touchdowns. In 2005, top-runner Michael Bush gained 1143 yards and scored 23 touchdowns. Petrino used more of a committee approach in his first (2003) and last season (2006) at Louisville, but if Smith establishes himself as the go-to guy, Petrino will not be shy about giving him touches.
2. Arkansas should be better this season. Last season, Arkansas lost games by 35, 42, and 31 points (to Alabama, Texas, and Florida). Arkansas ran the ball an average of 27 times in those three games. In their other 9 games, the Hogs ran the ball an average of 33 times per game. Fewer blowout losses and more wins mean more runs, and more runs means more potential touches for Smith.
3. The passing game should be better. No offense to Casey Dick, but he wasn't exactly the prototypical quarterback Bobby Petrino desires. For his career, Dick completed about 55.6% of his passes, with 2008 his best season at 57.4%. At Louisville, Petrino's quarterbacks never completed fewer than 60.5% of their passes over an entire season. Stepping in to replace Dick is Ryan Mallet, the top-rated recruit from 2007, who began his career at Michigan. I'd wager any amount that Petrino is able to coax at worst a solid season, and potentially a great season, out of Mallet. And if opponents have to fear the passing game for the first time since the days of Clint Stoerner, that should open more lanes for Smith in the running game.
4. Smith has value as a receiver. No, he's not Reggie Bush, but Smith was second on the team in catches last season (32) and sixth in yards (298). From the looks of things, a lot of those were dump-offs from Dick, so he may see his catches drop, but with the defense likely concerned with bigger threats further down the field, he could see his yardage and touchdown totals increase.
If he can stay healthy, Michael Smith may just well be the best running back in the SEC in 2009.
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