2019 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Mountain West

Last week we looked at how Mountain West teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2019 Mountain West standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Mountain West teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Seven teams saw their expected record differ significantly from their actual record using yards per play and when it comes to APR, the results were quite similar. Six teams saw their APR differ from their actual win total by at least a game and a half. Last week, we discussed some reasons why Boise State, Nevada, and Utah State exceeded their expected record and why Fresno State and New Mexico under-performed. However, a new entrant, Wyoming boasted the largest negative differential between their APR and actual record. Thanks to a fantastic defense, the Cowboys finished just behind Air Force in APR last season. Unfortunately, the Cowboys were 0-3 in one-score conference games and finished 4-4, losing three league games by twelve total points. By contrast, their smallest margin of victory in Mountain West play was ten points.

Requiem for Rocky
In early 2020, Rocky Long resigned as head coach of San Diego State. You may have missed this in the college football news cycle as Clemson and LSU were slated to play in the College Football Playoff a few days later. Since Long spent most of his coaching career at mid-major jobs west of the Mississippi, many casual college football fans probably don't know who he is. Well, I aim to change that. Over the next 10,000 words or so, my four regular readers will learn the hagiography of Rocky Long.

Long is not dead by the way. He's not even retired. He is the defensive coordinator at his alma mater, the University of New Mexico. He was also the head coach of the Lobos for eleven seasons before relocating to beautiful San Diego. He finished his head coaching career at New Mexico with a losing record, but the Lobos were bowl eligible for seven straight seasons (2001-2007) and he is arguably the most successful coach in school history (at least based on what he did in the Land of Enchantment). But we're mostly going to focus on what he did at San Diego State the past eleven seasons (nine as head coach).

Before we start praising Long too much, let's delve into a mild criticism. Prior to the 2012 season (his second in charge in San Diego), Long opined that August that his team would be more aggressive in their fourth down attempts heading into the season. Did his team become more aggressive in terms of fourth down attempts in 2012? Compared to the previous season, not really.

But whoa, they did get very aggressive in 2013, leading the nation in total fourth down attempts. So Long basically became an amalgamation of Mike Leach and Doug Pederson from then on right?

After being moderate to very aggressive in terms of fourth down attempts in his first three season, Long retreated into a shell for a half decade or so. This metric is not perfect as it is devoid of context (I didn't sift through the play by play to determine how many fourth and shorts San Diego State faced, compare it to the national average, and adjust for situational aspects like time and score), but it shows a pretty drastic shift in thinking. Why? Well, the answer is pretty simple.

The Aztecs gave the ball up on a lot of those fourth down gambles in 2013 and Long apparently decided, like Goldwater, that conservatism was the best path forward.

Oh well. Rocky achieved great success at San Diego State (two Mountain West titles) despite not being at the cutting edge in terms of analytics. But let's give Long credit for something the Aztecs did well during his tenure: play fantastic defense. Long became defensive coordinator at San Diego State in 2009, when he was hired by Brady Hoke (who after a winding road from Michigan, Oregon, Tennessee, and the NFL is now the head coach once again). Prior to Long's arrival as defensive coordinator, the Aztecs had ranked dead last in the Mountain West in yards allowed per play for two consecutive seasons. After a sixth place finish is his first season on the job, they ranked in the top three of the conference for the next decade and have not allowed more than five yards per play to conference foes in the past six seasons.

Long called his own defensive plays in San Diego once he became head coach (in 2011), so he shoulders a great deal of credit for those fantastic numbers. In addition to posting great defensive numbers, San Diego State usually boasted a great running game to compliment it. Three San Diego State running backs were drafted during Long's tenure (Ronnie Hillman, Rashaad Penny, and Nick Bawden who was actually a fullback in college) while Donnel Pumphrey left San Diego State as the NCAA's all-time leading rusher (with an asterisk of course). In addition, since Long took over in 2011, there have been fifteen instances of a running back finishing with at least 250 carries and twenty touchdowns while averaging at least six yards per carry (three quarterbacks have done it -- Jordan Lynch, Lamar Jackson, and Malcolm Perry). I think this arbitrary combination of numbers does a good job of identifying backs with the qualities of both explosiveness and work-horsery. San Diego State backs have two of those seasons.

The only other schools with multiple seasons are one known for their backs and beefy offensive linemen and another that is annually one of the most talented teams in the nation. The running game struggled a great deal in 2019 (though San Diego State still won ten games and received a few votes in the final AP Poll), so maybe Long got out one season too soon rather than one season too late.

Rocky Long will never be a household name among college football fans, but he did great work at two places that did not have a winning tradition when he arrived. His (likely) final act will be attempting to return his alma mater to respectability as defensive coordinator. Will he succeed? The odds are probably stacked against him, but I wouldn't call in a Longshot.

2019 Yards Per Play: Mountain West

This week we head west to try and rid some of our east coast bias. Welcome to the Mountain West review.

Here are the Mountain West standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Mountain West team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2019 season, which teams in the Mountain West met this threshold? Here are Mountain West teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Seven teams saw their actual record differ significantly from their expected record based on YPP. Boise State, Nevada, and Utah State exceeded their expected record while Colorado State, Fresno State, New Mexico, and San Jose State under-performed relative to their YPP numbers. Close game record does a good job of explaining the over-performance. Boise State, Nevada, and Utah State combined to go 8-1 in one-score conference games. And while the Broncos went undefeated, the Wolfpack and Aggies were blown out in most of their league losses. Of Nevada's four conference defeats, three came by at least 26 points while both of Utah State's conference losses came by at least 24 points. For the underachievers, Fresno State and San Jose State can blame close games, as they went a combined 2-6 in one-score conference games. New Mexico didn't play any conference games decided by less than eleven points, but they did have the worst in-conference turnover margin of -11. However, Colorado State is the real odd duck, or Ram if you will. They had the third best per-play differential in the conference, but won just three of their eight league games. They were only 0-1 in one-score conference games and their turnover margin was underwater (-4), but hardly debilitating. I couldn't really come up with an explanation for their struggles. As it stands, Steve Addazio will likely be the beneficiary of their positive regression while Mike Bobo will have to settle for working for Will Muschamp.

Largest Average Discrepancy
You may have noticed this past season's Mountain West featured an abnormally large number of teams that saw their actual record differ significantly from their expected record based on YPP. With YPP data going back to 2005, I wanted to see if it had the largest average discrepancy (by absolute value). It did, narrowly edging out a conference from fifteen years ago. Before we get to splitting decimals though, here are the other conferences that with the largest average disparity between their teams' actual record and expected record based on YPP.

The Sun Belt looked a lot different in 2011 than it does today. The conference had only nine teams, making it the smallest of our top five. With only nine teams, the high variance is also slightly less impressive as a few large outliers can have out sized influence on the average. However, even though the conference was only nine deep, more than half the teamssaw their expected record differ by more than .200 (the standard I use to rate a difference as 'significant').

If your memory of college football seasons runs together, 2015 was the year Michigan State stole a conference title and playoff bid from Ohio State. You can actually read the YPP recap here.

The Mountain West holds two of the top three spots on our list. This one is also recent enough that you can actually read the YPP recap here.

Then known as the Pac-10, the conference of champions is our surprise runner-up. The average difference was just .0001 less than this past year's Mountain West, our overall winner for largest average discrepancy.

In its twenty year history, the Mountain West has had better years, but none where the standings and per play differentials were so mismatched. Put that on a trophy!

2019 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: MAC

Last week we looked at how MAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2019 MAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, MAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Conference champion Miami significantly exceeded their expected record while their division rival, and arguably the best team in the conference, Buffalo, under-performed relative to their APR. The reason both teams significantly over or under-performed is simple: record in close games. Buffalo finished 0-2 in close conference games, losing by a single point to Ohio and three points to Kent State. Their five conference wins all came by at least nineteen points. Meanwhile, Miami was 4-0 in one-score conference games, including three wins by exactly three points.

Worst Conference Champions
Miami has won the MAC ten times in their history and a few of those title winning teams have been really good. However, their last two championship teams have been among the worst, at least in terms of their Adjusted Pythagorean Record within the MAC. The 2019 team finished 6-2 in conference play, but scored exactly as many touchdowns as they allowed against MAC competition. Almost a decade prior, in 2010, the Redhawks finished 7-1 in the MAC, but scored just two more touchdowns than they allowed. As I have APR data for each FBS conference going back to 2005, I decided to compile a list of the 'worst' conference champions by APR. I decided to look at outright conference champions only, so the 2010 Connecticut Huskies are off the hook as they finished in a three-way tie atop the Big East in 2010, but held the tiebreaker over Pitt and West Virginia thanks to head to head wins. We'll start with mid-major conferences. Here are the four worst outright mid-major champs by APR since 2005.

Three MAC teams appear on this list with Akron joining the two Miami teams. East Carolina checks in as the only mid-major team that was actually underwater in conference play. Now here are the four worst outright major conference champions.

The ACC eclipsed the MAC by sporting the four worst major conference champs since 2005. Virginia Tech in 2008 (the year almost every ACC team finished within a game of 4-4) is the lone major conference champ to finish underwater in league play.

As you may have guessed, these eight teams all entered their respective conference title games as moderate to significant underdogs (with the exception of Virginia Tech in the hyper parity of the 2008 ACC). They each managed to pull off upsets to join this esteemed list.

Thanks for reading. We'll be on our seventh conference next week when we recap the Mountain West.

2019 Yards Per Play: MAC

We are halfway through our offseason recaps. This week, we examine the MAC.

Here are the MAC standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each MAC team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2019 season, which teams in the MAC met this threshold? Here are MAC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Bowling Green was the lone MAC squad that saw their actual record differ significantly from their expected record based on YPP. The Falcons exceeded their expected record which is not a great sign when they won just a quarter of their conference games. How did the Falcons manage to exceed their expected record despite winning just two conference games? Well, the Falcons played competent defense in two games (outside of their victory against FCS Morgan State) all season. They held Toledo and Akron to 13 combined points. In their other six conference games, they allowed an average of over 51 points per game and 8.3 yards per play!

The People's Champ
On the surface, Western Michigan's 2019 season doesn't look that special. While the Broncos were bowl eligible for the sixth straight season, they only managed a 7-6 record and failed to beat either of the flawed Power Five teams (Michigan State and Syracuse) on their schedule. However, if you look a little closer, you can see they accomplished a somewhat rare feat. In their conference opener, they pounded Central Michigan. Two weeks later, they pounded Miami of Ohio. Why are these two results rare? Because the Chippewas and Redhawks ended up playing in the MAC Championship Game. Yes, the Broncos beat both division winners, making them the eighteenth team to accomplish that feat in FBS history. If you want to know a little background behind the other seventeen, keep reading. We'll start with mid-majors and move up to the major conference teams.

Before he was setting the bar too high at Texas A&M and running Arizona into the ground, Kevin Sumlin got his start at the University of Houston. His first Cougar team handled East Carolina and Tulsa with ease, beating both when they were in the lower reaches of the AP Poll. The Cougars particularly crushed the Golden Hurricane, winning 70-30 and inflicting Tulsa's only regular season conference loss. Houston was actually poised to win the division entering their regular season finale, but arguably the best Rice team of the last fifty years beat them to give the division to Tulsa.

Brady Hoke's third Ball State team beat Northern Illinois and Akron, but went just 2-4 in their other MAC conference games to finish all alone in fifth place in the MAC West. 2005 was just before the bowl boom as the conference actually finished with seven bowl eligible teams, but only two participated in the postseason. In fact, after being upset in the MAC Championship Game, Northern Illinois did not receive a postseason invite.

There is some true Tommy Bowden level shit going on here. Clemson beat both ACC Championship Game participants by multiple scores in 2006, but lost to Boston College early in the season thanks to a blocked extra point and to Maryland late in the year when they managed just four field goals despite nearly 400 yards of total offense. That loss gave the division and eventual conference title to my alma mater, Wake Forest.

Ohio State was ineligible for postseason play in 2012 thanks to some tattoo shenanigans that occurred under Jim Tressel. Thus, their undefeated season was for naught. The Buckeyes dominated Nebraska (their only regular season conference setback) and edged Wisconsin. The Badgers went just 4-4 in Big 10 play, but qualified for the conference title game because Penn State was also ineligible for the postseason (for more nefarious reasons).

Michigan was rolling for much of the 2016 season, opening 9-0, including victories against both Penn State and Wisconsin. The victory over the Nittany Lions was particularly gruesome, with Penn State mustering just ten points (in a season where they averaged nearly 40 per game). It was the last time Penn State would taste defeat in the 2016 season until their Rose Bowl classic with Southern Cal. Michigan dropped a close game to Iowa, but still controlled their own fate in the division and College Football Playoff when they faced Ohio State. A controversial spot helped Ohio State win and gave the division to Penn State.

A year after winning the national title, Texas was still pretty good. They extended their Big 12 winning streak to twenty game by opening 6-0 in league play. However, they dropped their final two games in divergent fashion, losing a shootout at Kansas State and managing just seven points in a home loss to the rival Aggies to give the division to Oklahoma.

One year before playing for the national title, Texas was still pretty good. They knocked off both Oklahoma and Missouri on their way to a 12-1 season. Alas, their lone loss (to Texas Tech), made the Big 12 South a three-way tie at the top with each team posting a 1-1 record against the other two. The Big 12 used BCS standings to split the baby and Oklahoma was granted the division crown despite losing to Texas by ten points on a neutral field.

Mike Sherman's (remember him?) penultimate Texas A&M team opened Big 12 play with losses to Oklahoma State and Missouri (sandwiched around a then non-conference loss to Arkansas). Then the Aggies rolled off six straight wins. Another three-way tie at the top of the Big 12 South ensued, with Oklahoma State joining the Aggies and Sooners in the pole position. Once again the BCS standings gave the division to Oklahoma despite a multi-score loss to a team from the Lone Star State.

No divisions? No problem. The return of the Big 12 Championship game also saw the return of the People's Champ. Iowa State beat Oklahoma and TCU in very different games. They staged a rally and won a shootout in Norman and held TCU without an offensive touchdown in Ames. Despite those two victories, the Cyclones finished 3-4 against their other conference opponents (2-4 against other Big 12 teams not named Kansas).

As is the case with a few other entries on this list, Southern Cal was postseason banned in 2011. Despite this handicap, the Trojans closed the season strong, beating Oregon and UCLA in back-to-back weeks. The victory against their cross-town rivals was particularly brutal. With that momentum, the Trojans were ranked number one in the 2012 preseason. I didn't check to see if they lived up to those expectations.

Coming off an appearance in the inaugural College Football Playoff, Oregon stumbled out of the gates sans Marcus Mariota. The Ducks dropped two of their first three conference games, including a legitimate curb-stomping at the hands of Utah and were just 3-3 overall halfway through the season. They won their final six games, highlighted by wins against Stanford and Southern Cal in back-to-back weeks. The victory against Stanford was extra sweet as it likely kept the Cardinal out of the College Football Playoff.

Southern Cal lost three of their first four games, including their first two conference games before they rallied behind quarterback Sam Darnold. After a last-minute loss to Utah, the Trojans won their final nine games and were responsible for the only regular season conference losses for both Colorado and Washington. If only Clay Helton has started Darnold sooner.

Befitting a team coached by the eccentric Mike Leach, 2017 was a weird season for Washington State. The Cougars began the season 6-0 and were ranked in the top-ten. They would finish unranked. Including the bowl, they dropped four of their final seven games with each loss coming by at least three touchdowns. However, even in that late season swoon, they managed to edge Stanford at home to go along with their earlier home upset of Southern Cal.

Like Urban Meyer at Ohio State, Terry Bowden began his career at Auburn with an undefeated campaign marred by a postseason ban. The Tigers edged a Florida team whose only other loss came to eventual national champion Florida State and beat the reigning national champion Crimson Tide. Alabama finished with a weird as hell 5-2-1 conference record and were the only other non postseason banned SEC West team to finish with a winning record.

Peyton Manning could never beat Florida, but he did guide Tennessee to their first division title because the Gators lost to LSU and Georgia. After dropping the game to the Gators, Tennessee would not lose again until the Orange Bowl against one half of the eventual national champions, Nebraska.

Jackie Sherrill's last good Mississippi State team beat a solid Auburn team and an under the radar good Florida team. Florida's only other losses in 2000 came to teams that were good enough to win the national title (Florida State and Miami). Outside of those two big wins, the Bulldogs went just 2-4 in their other SEC games.

Ron Zook's claim to fame (other than somehow getting Illinois to the Rose Bowl) is beating Nick Saban's first national title winning team. He also beat Georgia for good measure. Outside of Florida, Georgia's only other losses in 2003 were both to LSU. Once in the regular season and again in the SEC Championship Game. I would be remiss if I did not note Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee finished in a three-way tie atop the SEC East. I assume the BCS standings were the tie-breaker that lifted Georgia to the division crown, but I could not find evidence to confirm this.

2019 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Conference USA

Two weeks ago we looked at how Conference USA teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2019 Conference USA standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Conference USA teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as a line of demarcation to determine whether or not a team significantly over or under-performed relative to their APR and by that standard, Marshall was the only team that significantly exceeded their APR and Middle Tennessee was the only team that significantly under-performed relative to their APR. Marshall exceeded their expected record thanks to a 3-0 mark in one-score conference games. No real mystery there. And two weeks ago, we discussed a few reasons the Blue Raiders failed to follow up their division title with another postseason appearance. So let’s move to other matters.

From the Penthouse to the Outhouse
Much was expected from North Texas in 2019. The Mean Green were coming off back-to-back nine win seasons and three consecutive bowl appearances. They returned a senior quarterback who was already the leading passer in school history as well as their head coach, who nearly took the open Kansas State job. It wasn’t just Mean Green season ticket holders that expected big things either. North Texas was the preseason consensus to represent the West division of Conference USA in the league championship game. Alas, the Mean Green were not able to meet those expectations. They finished 4-8, their worst record yet under Seth Littrell. In the process, they became the 24th team since 2005 to finish with a losing regular season record despite being the preseason consensus division or conference favorite. I know that’s a mouthful, but by looking at those teams from the past, we can get an idea of what to expect from North Texas in 2020.

Instead of calculating how much each preseason consensus favorite that finished with a losing record improved or declined the next season and tallying up the results, I decided to divide the previous 23 teams into Power Five/BCS and Group of Five/non-BCS buckets. College football is a hierarchical sport. If a Power Five team like Southern Cal finishes with a losing record despite lofty preseason expectations (which they did in 2018) it is inherently different than if it happens to North Texas. Since North Texas is mid-major program, we’ll start by looking at other mid-major teams. Since 2005 (excluding North Texas in 2019), fifteen mid-majors have finished with a losing record despite being the preseason consensus favorite in their conference or division. Their results the next season are pretty mixed.

On average, the teams improved by a little less than one win in conference play and a little more than one win overall (regular season win totals only). However, that is the average. When it comes to actually improving, less than half improved in either conference or overall wins. In fact, just as many declined in overall wins as improved. When we look at major conference teams, the results are better, but the sample size is quite small (eight teams).

These teams improved by nearly two wins in conference play and more than two wins overall. Declining the next season was almost out of the question, with Kansas the lone team to continue to decline after their losing season. It makes intuitive sense that major conference programs could return to their previous heights faster than mid-major ones. There is an established food chain in college football, particularly at the top. These teams have more money and infrastructure as well as better recruits than their mid-major peers. Meanwhile, with a few exceptions, like Boise, Idaho, there is more parity at the lower rungs of FBS. The difference between North Texas and UAB or Southern Miss or Louisiana Tech is much less than the difference between Clemson and Louisville or NC State. The Mean Green have a much smaller margin of error than the Tigers. That being said, I still think North Texas is poised for a rebound in 2020. They probably shouldn’t be the division favorite again, but a return to the postseason should be expected. In addition, the lost 2019 campaign may allow them to hang onto their coach for a year or two longer than they otherwise would have.

A Run by Dayton or San Diego State to the Final Four Would Have Been Unprecedented

I know there is no NCAA tournament this year, but I did all this research a few weeks back under the assumption that Dayton and San Diego State were likely to be top two seeds when the bracket was revealed. Since it appears we are living in the first few chapters of The Stand, I may never get another chance to post this. And if the tournament does return next year, well, I may be able to edit this post slightly and rehash it again. Enjoy.

A run by Dayton or San Diego State to the Final Four would have been unprecedented. I say that not because Dayton has not made the national semifinals since 1967 nor because San Diego State has never advanced past the Sweet 16. No, I say that because both Dayton and San Diego State entered the 2020 college basketball season unranked in the initial AP Poll. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, that has been a great way to identify top two seeds that will not make the Final Four.

There have been 280 top two seeds since the tournament expanded to a 64 teams (35 tournaments, with four regions apiece, and two top seeds in each region). Those top two seeds (roughly analogous to the top eight teams in the nation as determined by the selection committee) have won 27 of the 35 tournaments. However, none of those 27 champs were unranked in the preseason AP Poll. in fact, teams that were unranked in the preseason AP Poll and later received a top two seed have never even made the Final Four! Those top two seeds that were unranked in the preseason AP Poll are also more likely to lose in the tournament's first weekend. We'll dub these early exits 'Flame Outs'. For the one seed, this would involve losing to the sixteen seed in the first round or the eight/nine winner in the second round. For the two seed, this would mean losing to the fifteen seed in the first round or the seven/ten winner in round two.

35 teams have been either one or two seeds despite not being ranked in the preseason AP Poll. Here is how they have performed in the tournament.

More than half of the top two seeds that were not ranked in the preseason poll have not made it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament and less than a quarter have advanced to the Regional Final (one win away from the Final Four) with Oregon in 2016 being the most recent top two seed to advance that far. In fact, these teams are two and a half times more likely to flame out than win three tournament games!

Top two seeds that were not ranked in the preseason AP Poll have struggled in the NCAA tournament. But what about those that were ranked in the preseason poll, but have still managed to exceed expectations? 65 teams have earned top two seeds after opening the season in the AP top 25, but outside the top ten. Here is how they have performed.

They have still been more likely to flame out than reach the Final Four, but at least one fifth of these teams have managed to make it to the national semifinals.

So how about preseason top ten teams that earned top two seeds? This is where the bulk of NCAA tournament success can be found.

These teams make the Final Four more than twice as often as they flame out and account for 26 of the 35 total champs since the tournament expanded.

Finally, let's look at the biggest upsets by seeding in NCAA tournament history. A fifteen seed has beaten a two seed eight times and a sixteen seed has beaten a one once. In those nine massive tournament upsets, the losing top seed was not ranked in the preseason AP Poll three times and ranked outside the top ten in the preseason poll seven times!

History is not destiny, but Dayton and San Diego State were probably more likely to lose in the second round than make it to the Final Four.

Thanks for reading. Stay safe and be kind everyone and check back next Thursday when we return to our regularly scheduled programming and examine the APR for Conference USA.

2019 Yards Per Play: Conference USA

After six weeks of Power 5 college football, we return to our G5 roots. This week, we examine Conference USA.

Here are the Conference USA standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Conference USA team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2019 season, which teams in Conference USA met this threshold? Here are Conference USA teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Louisiana Tech significantly exceeded their expected record based on YPP while Middle Tennessee and North Texas saw their records fail to match their per play standards. Louisiana Tech was not lucky in close games (1-1 in one-score league games), but did have the second best in-conference turnover margin (+8) in the league. However, the real reason for the disconnect between Louisiana Tech’s record and per play efficiency was the two games they lost. After beginning the season 8-1 (5-0 in Conference USA), the Bulldogs suspended a handful of players, including starting quarterback J’Mar Smith prior to their road trip to Marshall. The Bulldogs scored just ten points in a loss to the Herd, and with Smith missing the following game against UAB, managed just fourteen points in another defeat. Those losses, ceded the division to UAB. Smith returned for the season finale and the Bulldogs blew out UTSA. In the six conference games Louisiana Tech played at full strength, they outscored their opponents by exactly 100 points while averaging 41 points per game. In the two games they played shorthanded, they managed just 24 total points. Their per play differential was similarly striking.

While the Bulldogs did not have the profile of an undefeated team in their six full strength games, they were much better than the middling team they appeared to be when all their conference games were included. As for the colorful Blue Raiders and Mean Green, it’s much easier to see why they underperformed. Middle Tennessee (0-3) and North Texas (1-3) went a combined 1-6 in one-score conference games. A little better luck here or there, and both would have been back in the postseason. 

Extreme Turnover Margins 
Florida Atlantic enjoyed arguably their best season in school history in 2019. The Owls dropped their first two games in blowout fashion to a playoff participant and perhaps the best mid-major program in recent history. They then proceeded to win eleven of their final twelve games, with each victory coming by at least ten points. They capped their season by dominating the best post-death penalty SMU team in their bowl game. On the strength of that victory, they finished just outside the final polls, narrowly missing out on the first AP ranking in school history as well as nearly becoming the first ranked Conference USA team in a half-decade. Befitting a successful season by a G5 program, the Owls did lose their coach, but they appear set up to contend for another conference crown in 2020. Or are they?

While the Owls had a solid YPP margin against their league foes in 2019 (+1.18), it actually ranked second behind UAB (+1.46). Part of this is due to schedule strength as UAB benefited from playing the four worst teams by YPP in conference play (Rice, UTSA, Old Dominion, and UTEP) as well as a short-handed Louisiana Tech. Still, Florida Atlantic’s YPP margin is well below the one posted by their last championship team in 2017 (+1.68) and that team failed to qualify for a bowl game the next season! However, the real reason Florida Atlantic fans may want to curb their enthusiasm just a bit is because of the team’s historic turnover margin in 2019. In eight conference games (excluding their title game beatdown of UAB), the Owls had a turnover margin of +16. They are just the eighth team since 2005 to have an in-conference turnover margin of at least +2 per game. Here are the other seven along with how their conference record changed the following year.

Six of the other seven teams saw their conference record decline by at least one game and the average decline was about 1.4 wins. Each team managed to finish with a winning conference record the next season, but they were not as dominant. The Owls will have plenty of competition in the East division next season, with Charlotte, Marshall, and Western Kentucky looking to build on solid seasons, Middle Tennessee looking to rebound, and Florida International looking to stick it to their in-state rival. Old Dominion is the only program in the division without a realistic shot at contending. If the Owls are able to repeat as division champs in 2020, Willie Taggart will have earned all the money Florida State is still paying him.

2019 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Big 12

Last week we looked at how Big 12 teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2019 Big 12 standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Big 12 teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as a line of demarcation to determine whether or not a team significantly over or under-performed relative to their APR and by that standard, no team saw their record differ significantly from their APR.

Mike Leach: Pretty Good Coach
That’s not a controversial statement. Definitely not click bait at all. Sure, as some Leach skeptics and cynics will point out, he has never won a conference title. However, Lubbock and Pullman are hardly locales with the resources, infrastructure, and recruiting advantages to win a one. Anyway, with Leach having left Lubbock a decade ago, I thought now would be a good time to compare his ten years at Texas Tech with the ten years following his ignominious firing.

Mike Leach coached the Texas Tech Red Raiders for ten seasons (2000-2009). Since his firing for player abuse, mainly against one particularly well-connected player, three men have coached Texas Tech. In chronological order, they were a former SEC coach with an undefeated season on his resume, a former Texas Tech and NFL quarterback who later became a sought-after college offensive coordinator and NFL head coach, and a coach that guided Utah State to their second ranked finish in fifty years. In other words, the men who followed him were all competent football coaches. Texas Tech was not captained by Mike Locksley or Chris Ash. That makes the success, or lack thereof, in the post-Leach era all the more amazing.

Let’s get things started with the basic won/loss record for the ten years with Leach and the ten years after Leach.

Under Leach, the Red Raiders won nearly twice as often as they lost. Under his three replacements, the Red Raiders won slightly fewer games than they lost. But I can hear the Leach counter arguments now: His teams feasted on non-conference patsies. Look at the Big 12 record. As you wish.

Under Leach, the Red Raiders never won a division title, but after a 3-5 conference record in his first season, they never finished below .500 in Big 12 play during the remainder of his tenure. In fact after beginning his Big 12 career 16-16, his last six teams averaged more than five conference wins per season (31-17). Contrast that with the three gentlemen that have succeeded him. I didn’t realize this until I was pulling the numbers, but Texas Tech has not finished with a winning Big 12 record since Leach was fired! In the last ten seasons, the only current Big 12 teams that have not finished with a winning conference record are Texas Tech and Kansas! You can make the argument that finishing with a winning record is somewhat tougher in the modern Big 12 since the league plays nine conference games and a true round-robin schedule. However, while divisional play and an eight-game league season theoretically made it easier to finish with a .500 record, keep in mind Leach coached Texas Tech during the time period that Oklahoma and Texas won two combined national titles and played for three others. During his time in Lubbock, he did avoid the ascendance of Baylor, but having the Longhorns and Sooners, not to mention the Aggies and Cowboys, as division rivals did not provide the Red Raiders an easy path to bowl eligibility.

Before we sign off for this week, let’s look at AP top 25 finishes for the Red Raiders under Leach and in the ten seasons since his departure.

Under Leach, the Red Raiders finished ranked during half of his tenure, with a peak finish of twelfth in 2008. Unsurprisingly, with the team topping out at 8-5 in both 2012 and 2013, the Red Raiders have not finished in the final polls since he left. In fact, Leach is responsible for nearly half of Texas Tech’s all-time ranked finishes (eleven total).

I don’t think Red Raider and college football fans in general appreciate what Mike Leach did at Texas Tech. Once a coach makes a college football outpost successful for several years, the natural assumption is the momentum will continue unabated without them. Texas Tech is a perfect counterexample to that line of thinking. A cursory look at his record does not do the Mike Leach era justice, but a closer examination shows just how much he accomplished at a difficult job.