Thursday, July 08, 2021

YPP Throwback: The 2000-2003 Big East (the final years of the old Big East)

In this edition of our YPP Throwback, we are actually going to examine four seasons (and a few Jersey Boys) of the early aughts Big East. These four seasons encompass the supernova run of the Miami Hurricanes when they reemerged from sanctions to become a national player for the first time in a decade only to see their potential dynasty abate just as they left the Big East to join the ACC. 

We start, as we always do, with the standings. This time, its the Big East in 2000. 
Miami and Virginia Tech combined to go 22-2 in 2000 with both teams finishing in the top six of the final AP Poll. Miami's only loss came in the second game of the season by five points on a cross-country trip to Washington. That Washington team was pretty damn good, finishing 11-1 and winning the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, in Michael Vick's final season in Blacksburg, the Hokies lone defeat came at Miami (in a game Vick hardly played). Outside of Miami and Virginia Tech, the only notable aspect of the Big East in 2000 was the final season of legendary West Virginia coach Don Nehlen. Nehlen capped his career by winning his first bowl game in sixteen seasons against Ole Miss in the Music City Bowl

And here are the YPP numbers for the 2000 Big East.
While Virginia Tech finished a game behind Miami in the Big East standings, they were clearly several notches below Miami once we look at the YPP numbers. The Hokies were second on offense and defense, but the gap between the Hokies and Hurricanes was enormous. Miami was about 0.78 yards per play better than the Hokies on offense. That was larger than the gap between Virginia Tech and the sixth best offense (West Virginia). The gap on defense was similar. Miami was about 0.80 yards per play better than the Hokies on that side of the ball. That was greater than the difference between Virginia Tech and the fifth best defense (Temple). On the other end of the spectrum, Rutgers finished with the worst YPP Net in the Big East. Despite making a great hire, in the short term, things would get much worse. 

Here are the 2001 Big East standings. 
Miami once again finished with an unblemished record, and while they were often regarded as the best team of this century until the recent iterations of Clemson, LSU, and Alabama destroyed the curve, they were challenged a few times in conference play. Boston College was driving with a chance to win late until a tipped pass led to an Ed Reed touchdown and a misleading final score. In their regular season finale, Miami avoided the late season upset that plagued highly ranked teams in 2001 by stopping a two point conversion against Virginia Tech that could have sent the game to overtime. Elsewhere in the conference, Syracuse shook off an 0-2 start to win ten of their last eleven games and finish in the top-fifteen of the final AP Poll for the first time in nearly ten years. And at the bottom of the conference, as you'll soon see, things got much worse for Rutgers. 

Here are YPP numbers for the 2001 Big East. 
Miami was again clearly a cut above the rest of the conference although Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Virginia Tech all finished with a YPP Net greater than 1.00. I was surprised that Syracuse, which finished all alone in second place in the conference standings, and had the Big East Defensive Player of the Year in Dwight Freeney finished with the second worst per play defense and was actually underwater in terms of YPP Net. Finally, at the bottom of the YPP rankings, Rutgers may have boasted the worst BCS/Power 5 conference team of the 21st century. I have YPP data for every conference going back to 2005, and Rutgers outpaces all the other BCS/Power 5 teams by a significant margin. 
Most of that is due to an impossibly bad offense. The Scarlet Knights scored three touchdowns in seven conference games, were shut out three times, scored five points against Temple, and averaged just north of five points per game in conference play. Their per play offensive numbers were also significantly worse than any BCS/Power Five conference team between 2005 and 2020. 
Here are the 2002 Big East standings. 
For the third year in a row, Miami finished Big East play with an unblemished record and for the third year in a row, a different team finished in second place with a 6-1 record. West Virginia, under second year coach Rich Rodriguez rebounded from a rough non-conference start (lost to Wisconsin and Maryland by a combined 48 points) to finish with a winning conference record for the first time since 1998. Rutgers once again finished all alone in last place as they extended their conference losing streak to 22 games. 

Here are the YPP numbers for the 2002 Big East. 
Miami was once again head and shoulders above the rest of the Big East. Their YPP Net was more than double that of the second place team (Pittsburgh). In an odd turn of events, Temple, despite a 2-5 conference record, finished with a solid per play defense, ranking fourth in the Big East behind Defensive Player of the Year Dan Klecko. On the other hand, for the first time in a long time, Virginia Tech put a bad defense on the field, ranking second to last in the Big East in yards allowed per play. The Hokies lost two conference games where they scored 42 and 45 points respectively. And while Rutgers improved in Net YPP, their offensive YPP was even worse than the year before!

Here are the 2003 Big East standings. 
2003 was the year a pair of streaks were broken. After winning 27 consecutive Big East games, Miami was surprisingly blown out in Blacksburg on November 1st. The Hurricanes turned the ball over four times and were down 31-0 entering the fourth quarter. It marked Miami's first conference loss since 1999 when they also lost in blowout fashion during a trip to Blacksburg. To test your knowledge of late 90's Big East football, do you know the last Big East team other than Virginia Tech to defeat Miami? I'll reveal the answer at the end of this post. Elsewhere in the Big East, Rutgers broke their 25 game conference losing streak the week before Miami's winning streak was snapped. The Scarlet Knights blew out Temple and capped their year with a second Big East victory against Syracuse. 

Here are the YPP numbers for the 2003 Big East. 
For the fourth year in a row, Miami was tops in YPP Net, but they were not nearly as dominant on offense. The defense was still national championship worthy (in fact it was better than the 2002 version), but the offense fell off a cliff with the loss of Ken Dorsey, Willis McGahee, and Andre Johnson. Quarterback Brock Berlin took my breath away by throwing 17 interceptions (against just 12 touchdowns) and despite the presence of future NFL skill players Frank Gore, Jarrett Payton, Roscoe Parrish, and Kellen Winslow Jr., the team finished 51st nationally in points per game. 

Just how much of a problem was the Miami offense in 2003? The following table lists the number of offensive touchdowns Miami scored and allowed in league play between 2000 and 2003 as well as the number of turnovers the Hurricanes committed. 
With Ken Dorsey at the helm, the Hurricanes averaged at least four offensive touchdowns per game each season, maxing out at a little over five per game during his senior season. They also scored two or fewer offensive touchdowns just twice (including the infamous Boston College game where they did not manage a single touchdown until Ed Reed's return). In 2003, they scored two or fewer offensive touchdowns in four of their seven conference games. Their cumulative touchdown total would look even worse if we ignored the Temple game. The Hurricanes dominated the Owls, scoring seven offensive touchdowns, but managed just 13 in their other six Big East games. Their turnover numbers were also much worse once Dorsey departed, as the team committed twice as many turnovers in 2003 as they did in 2002. Football is a team game, but I'm good putting this all at the feet of Brock Berlin. 

That's how Miami's run in the Big East came to an end. They entered the 2004 season as co-favorites in the ACC with Florida State, but lost three games, including two at home en route to a disappointing Peach Bowl appearance. The decline continued the next two seasons with another Peach Bowl appearance (this one a shellacking at the hands of LSU) and finally a losing conference record in 2006 that got Larry Coker canned. Considering Alabama's run of dominance is going into its 14th season, it really puts the length of Miami's run into perspective. Depending on whether you consider 2004 part of the run, it really only lasted four or five years, or roughly the same length of time that a superstar in another sport turned South Beach into a mini-dynasty. 

And before we leave Miami, lets answer that trivia question from before. Other than Virginia Tech, the last Big East team to beat Miami was...
Syracuse. The week before Miami ended UCLA's run to the inaugural BCS Championship, the Hurricanes lost in blowout fashion to Donovan McNabb and the Orange in the Carrier Dome. 

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