The Magnificent Seven: Week II

The opening weekend of college football could have gone better, but at least we avoided a total disaster after an 0-3 start. And we did go 2-1 on Saturday, so you know, there's that. Anyway, the season is long, so we have ample time to regroup and get better (or fall further into the abyss). As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 2-5

Overall 2-5

Western Kentucky +7 Army

Say what you will about the Helton Brothers (Clay and Tyson), but they are at least self-aware enough to realize when they need to hire an outsider to fix their offense. Clay brought the Air Raid to LA when he hired Graham Harrell prior to the 2019 season and has gone 14-6 since (11-9 in previous twenty games). Meanwhile, after pairing solid CUSA defenses with bad CUSA offenses in his first two seasons, Tyson looked for offensive firepower at the FCS level by hiring Houston Baptist offensive coordinator Zach Kittley and bringing in Houston Baptist quarterback Bailey Zappe. 

Zappe threw for over 10,000 yards at Houston Baptist and looked the part in his first game as a Hilltopper, throwing for over 400 yards and seven touchdowns. It came against an FCS opponent, but the 587 total yards were the most by the team since 2017. The opponent in this game will ensure the scoring is muted, what with their ground dominant attack, but I expect Western Kentucky to retain most of their efficiency if not their cumulative numbers. The real question is, can they cover this number against an Army team that entered their opener as an underdog and left with a victory of more than thirty points. While Army deserves credit for smashing Georgia State on the road, games against competent triple option teams can go sideways in a hurry. The limited possessions and the knowledge that those possessions matter more than a 'normal' game can cause teams to press. Once Georgia State fell behind by two scores, their game plan was likely jettisoned. Could the same thing happen to Western Kentucky? Certainly, but at least in this spot, you are catching points, which is exactly where you want to be when betting against Army. Under Jeff Monken, Army is just 9-12 ATS as a home favorite. In this section of the internet, we support the troops, but Army is laying too many points against what should be an explosive Group of Five offense. Take the Hilltoppers and the touchdown Army is spotting them. 

California +11.5 TCU

Cal's opener against Nevada was a microcosm of the Justin Wilcox era. The Golden Bears held a prolific offense in check (Nevada averaged over 30 points per game last season and has a potential NFL quarterback starting for them), but the offense piddled around and the team dropped a tight game. Since Wilcox took over prior to the 2017 season, Cal has scored less than 20 points sixteen times in forty games against FBS opponents. In addition, more than half of their games against FBS competition have been decided by a touchdown or less (10-11 record in those games). A little more offensive punch would have the Golden Bears in contention for the Pac-12 North title. As it stands, they have not posted a winning record in conference play since 2009! Despite those offensive struggles, they are a great play as they head to Fort Worth catching ten points. TCU dispatched Duquesne with relative ease on Saturday, but the Horned Frogs have not done great as a home favorite since stepping up to the Big 12. 

In that span, they are 13-17 ATS as a home favorite against Power 5 (mostly Big 12 opponents). However, notice when they had their best run of success. With Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson, the Horned Frogs went 8-1 ATS as a home favorite in 2014 and 2015. However, without those two stud offensive stars, the Horned Frogs are just 5-16 ATS over the other seven seasons. That poor ATS showing also includes ten outright home losses as a betting favorite! TCU is a better team than Nevada, but Nevada has a better quarterback and Cal held that offense to 22 points. I don't expect a repeat of the infamous Cheez-It Bowl battle between these two teams, but Cal's defense will do enough to keep them within this number. 

Iowa State -4.5 Iowa

The Covid-19 pandemic deprived us of one of the more underrated college football rivalries in 2020. Iowa and Iowa State did not play for the first time since the nation's bicentennial. Now, after a one year hiatus, the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy (or El Assico if you prefer) will resume. Both heartland teams won their openers, but they did so in vastly different ways. Iowa jumped out to a early lead over Indiana thanks to a long run and a pick six and were never really threatened. Meanwhile, Iowa State fell behind Northern Iowa early and while they were never really in danger of losing, didn't offer a lot in terms of aesthetics in a 16-10 win. The victory over the Panthers continued a trend of struggling against FCS opponents for the Cyclones under wunderkind coach Matt Campbell. Under Campbell, the Cyclones have played five FCS opponents (Northern Iowa four times and Drake once). They have either lost the game outright (once) or won by less than a touchdown (thrice) in four of the five games. In other words, don't read too much into their closer than expected victory. But do take a deeper dive into the Iowa box score. While the Hawkeyes easily beat the Hoosiers, their starting quarterback completed less than half his passes and the team benefitted from two defensive touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns are highly volatile and typically have an outsized impact on both game flow and game outcome so consider that when handicapping the Hawkeyes going forward. When looking at the recent history of this game, Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz finds himself in a position he has not been in for more than two decades. Ferentz became head coach at Iowa in 1999 and his first two teams were underdogs to the Cyclones. They lost and failed to cover in both games. However, in the past nineteen games in this series, Iowa has entered as the betting favorite. Ferentz has done well straight up in this series, going 12-9 with wins in the past five. However, he has not done as well ATS, posting a 7-13-1 mark (although typically in the role of favorite). I think this line is depressed a bit thanks to the disparate results these two teams delivered in their respective openers. If the betting public still thinks Iowa State should be favored after their poor showing against Northern Iowa, who am I to argue? Take the Cyclones to get their first win in this series since 2014 and cover this number in the process. 

NC State -2.5 Mississippi State

If NC State can win this game, it may be time to come to start asking if they are the second best team in the ACC. In you haven't heard, the conference did not exactly have a banner weekend to begin the 2021 season. Clemson failed to score a touchdown against Georgia, Miami learned just how far they are from elite against Alabama, North Carolina lost to a team that wants its coach fired, Louisville made the Ole Miss defense look like a legitimate SEC unit, Georgia Tech lost to a MAC team that hadn't won a game since 2019, and Duke lost to Charlotte. Other than that, things were great. Of course, with the ACC being down, this presents NC State an opportunity to win their first conference title since 1979. I'll note the Wolfpack do get Clemson at home in a few weeks, so any hopes for a division or conference title hinge on them beating the Tigers. Even if they don't quite have the goods to beat the Tigers, the ACC schedule gives them an opportunity to finish in the AP top ten for the first time in school history. Befitting a team that has never finished in the top ten of the final AP Poll, NC State usually boots a game in an otherwise strong season. A few recent examples: In 2018, NC state was 6-2 and ranked 22nd when they lost at home as a massive favorite to Wake Forest. The 2017 team finished 9-4 and in the lower reaches of the AP Poll, but things could have been much better had they not dropped their opener to South Carolina. The 2002 team opened the season 9-0, but dropped three straight ACC games to the likes of Georgia Tech, Maryland, and Virginia (all by a touchdown or less) to miss out on an ACC title. Will the Wolfpack look back on 2021 and rue the game against Mississippi State as one that derailed a special season? Probably. But I'll back them anyway. Mississippi State staged a twenty point second half rally to edge Louisiana Tech in their opener. The defeat marked fifth time Louisiana Tech has lost to a Power Five team under Skip Holtz by a touchdown or less, as well as the third time they have lost to an SEC team by a single point. That being said, Holtz has only himself to blame as he played for a long field goal at the end of the game and was punished by the Football Gods. But I digress. Mississippi State is improved over last season, and I expect them to win a few games in the SEC (especially with the unresolved defensive issues at LSU), but there is a reason this spread has shifted so far in NC State's favor (Mississippi State opened as a favorite). Despite their history, I think NC State gets the win on the road and covers this short number. 

Florida International -1 Texas State

Not sure I understand this line. Is Florida International's 'winless' 2020 impacting this line more than it should? Yes, the Panthers technically finished 2020 with no wins, and were the only FBS team to drop a game to an FCS team (in the Fall), but I'm willing to give Butch Davis a mulligan. The Panthers won 23 games in their first three seasons under Davis and were especially good at home in that span, going 12-5 in home games against FBS competition. Prior to the season, I expected a return to form for FIU, and their opener against Long Island did not dissuade me. I never like to read too much into a result against an overmatched FCS opponent, but the Panthers dominated the Sharks as one would expect. Now the Panthers will look to build off that win as the Bobcats roll into town. Texas State hosted an in-state Power Five opponent (Baylor) last week, and while the final score was relatively close, Baylor outgained the Bobcats by more than two yards per play. Now the Bobcats have to go on the road where they have not enjoyed great success as an FBS program. 

Texas State joined FBS in 2012, and in their first game, won on the road as a massive underdog. Since then, the road has not been as kind to them. In fact, their road record has gotten worse under each successive head coach. Their only road win under Jake Spavital came last season against Louisiana-Monroe, which was (and is) one of the worst teams in college football. This game feels eerily similar to the second game Texas State played in 2020. They opened the season with a closer than expected loss to a more prestigious in-state school (SMU) and were over-valued heading into their next game (home loss as a touchdown favorite against Texas-San Antonio). All FIU has to do is win, so grab the value here.  

Missouri +5 Kentucky

Was Kentucky's home win against Louisiana-Monroe that impressive? Yes, the Wildcats rolled up over 500 yards on the Warhawks at over eight yards per play and held them to under 100 yards of total offense. However, Louisiana-Monroe barely qualifies as an FBS team. Against a schedule that included zero Power Five teams last season, the Warhawks were outscored by 26 points per game on the way to a winless season. Perhaps not surprisingly, they elected to start over by hiring a new coach. Perhaps surprisingly, that new coach was Terry Bowden. Bowden did hire Rich Rodriguez as his offensive coordinator (outside of the money of course, do you think he regrets taking the Michigan job all those years ago?), but neither Rome nor Monroe were built in a day. Kentucky's opening romp should be viewed similarly to beating an FCS opponent. They should be expected to win, but we can't draw any grand conclusions from the blowout. Meanwhile, Missouri also won their opener, but were not nearly as impressive against a game Central Michigan team. The Chippewas hung around and lost by just ten points. While the final score was relatively close, Missouri did a better job in the box score, outgaining Central Michigan by more than a yard per play. After their respective tune ups, both teams will look to get off to an good start in SEC play. The underdog has won four of the past five games in this series and covered in all five. I expect more of the same on Saturday. Mark Stoops has done a fine job at Kentucky, but he has not delivered for bettors as a home favorite. In SEC play, Kentucky is just 5-9 ATS as a home favorite under Stoops, and while the Wildcats did cover two times in the role last season, those covers came against a Mississippi State team just getting their sea legs and a South Carolina team that had checked out under an interim coach. Look for Missouri to leave Lexington with an outright win on Saturday night. 

San Diego State +2 Arizona

San Diego State looked less than impressive in their opener against New Mexico State. The Aztecs went to half down 10-0 against the Aggies, but staged a rally in the second half to win comfortably. However, they did not come close to covering the massive spread. As they have done for the past decade or so, San Diego State ran the ball and played good defense. The Aztecs rushed for over 250 yards at six yards a pop and held New Mexico State to ten points. However, their passing attack was atrocious. Quarterback Jordon Brookshire completed just over a third of his passes (somehow San Diego State is ahead of three other teams in completion percentage this season) and barely topped 100 yards through the air. Those archaic passing numbers will probably prevent San Diego State from getting to the Mountain West Championship Game, especially with Fresno State and Nevada looking strong, but the team should do enough to get back to a bowl game for the eleventh time in the past twelve seasons. Along the way, they should be able to get another Pac-12 scalp for the trophy case. Since 2011, San Diego State is an impressive 6-6 straight up against Pac-12 opponents, with their most recent win coming in 2019 at UCLA. Arizona showed some spunk in their opener, hanging with BYU after falling behind 21-3. Quarterback Gunner Cruz played well at times, throwing for over 300 yards, but he also threw a pick in the endzone and took four sacks. San Diego State has a good enough defense and ground game to win outright with little help from their quarterback.