Historical SDPI: The Pac-10

After running the SDPI numbers for all 11 conferences in 2006, I thought it would be an interesting sojourn through recent football history to look back at SDPI for the six BCS conferences throughout the entirety of the BCS era (98-06). It also gives me an excuse to add some pretty little graphs to the site. Don't know what SDPI is? Click here for an answer. Remember, its performance, not achievement, so years with the highest win totals may not actually be a certain team's best season. And its also only conference play, so any non-conference action, championship games, and bowl game are excluded. We'll continue with a look at the Pac-10. After each team's graph, there is a paragraph of commentary followed by the number of first place SDPI finishes or if there are no such finishes, the highest SDPI finish.


Arizona


Dick Tomey is responsible for the years 1998-2000. 2001-2003 was the John Mackovic disaster, and since 2004 Mike Stoops has been in charge. The BCS era began quite well for Arizona as the Wildcats finished 1998 with a 12-1 record. They slipped to 6-6 and 5-6 the next two seasons (3-5 in Pac-10 play both years) and Dick Tomey was let go. Nevermind his track record of consistent success at Hawaii and Arizona. In came John Mackovic, who proceeded to win a grand total of four conference games in his three seasons. Next up was Mike Stoops who has steadily improved the program each season and now has the Wildcats back to mediocrity. Of course, that's where they were six years ago when Tomey was let go. While the Wildcats have been wandering through the desert in search of the promised land, Tomey has gone on to resurrect his third moribund program, this time at San Jose State.

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd (1998)


Arizona State


Bruce Snyder is responsible for the first three seasons and Dirk Koetter the last six. In all nine seasons, the Sun Devils have been neither very good, nor very bad. Ironically, even in their 9-3 season (5-3 in Pac-10 play), the Sun Devils were outscored by their conference opponents. Primarily because in two of their three conference losses, they were outscored by a combined 72-7 (by Southern Cal and Cal).

Best SDPI Finish: 4th (2000 and 2005)


California


From zero to respectability in...Jeff Tedford. The combined size and swiftness of the turnaround make it one of the most impressive in college football history. In 2001, Cal was awful--1-10 overall and 0-8 in Pac-10 play. They were a legitimate 0-8 too. They were over three standard deviations below average in conference play. The 9th place team (Arizona) was only about one and a half standard deviations below average. The next season, Cal was 7-5 (4-4) in conference play and had an above average SDPI. Two years later, Cal was the best team in the Pac-10. They have remained near the top of the standings since. They have not finished worse than third in SDPI since Tedford's first season (a pair of second place finishes, and a bronze medal to go along with the first and fourth place finishes previously mentioned).

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2004


Oregon


Mike Bellotti has been the head man for the duration of the BCS era for Oregon (he took over for Rich Brooks in 1995). The Ducks are the only member of the old guard (Pac-10 powers in the late 1990's and early 2000's) to compete for conference titles in the latter part of this decade. Neither Washington, Stanford, nor Arizona have finished higher than fourth in SDPI since 2001. After winning the Pac-10 and nearly playing for the national title in 2001, the Ducks went into a mini-three-year swoon where they were below average (but not terrible each season). They rebounded in 2005 and finished second in the Pac-10 standings and in SDPI despite the loss of quarterback Kellen Clemens. They regressed back to about average in 2006, but remain a threat in the Pac-10.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2001


Oregon State


Four years are of Dennis Erickson are sandwiched between one year of Mike Riley and four years of...Mike Riley. When Riley left for the NFL after a successful (by Oregon State standards) 5-6 season in 1998, he was replaced by Dennis Erickson. Under Erickson, the program reached unimaginable heights, winning the schools first conference championship (tie) since 1964 in 2000, and coming within three points of an undefeated regular season. When Erickson left for the NFL following the 2002 season, Riley was immediately welcomed back. Since taking over for Erickson, Riley has consistently fielded solid teams (the Beavers have been above average three out of his five seasons), but has yet to return the program to the heights reached under Erickson. However, even a quick glance at the above graph reveals Oregon State's historic 2000 season was an outlier in Erickson's tenure as they were never more than one standard deviation above average during his other three seasons at the school. Riley's winning percentage at Oregon State is a rather pedestrian .528 (38-34). However, besides Erickson, he is the only Oregon State coach to have a winning record at the school since Tommy Protho. The other five coaches (excluding Erickson) who preceded him had a combined winning percentage of .282 (95-247-7).

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2000


Southern Cal


Since taking over for Paul Hackett in 2001, Pete Carroll has certainly awoken the sleeping giant that was Trojan football. Southern Cal did win or share six Pac-10 championships between 1980 and 2000, a number almost any other program would be more than happy with. However, in his six seasons, Carroll has won or shared five Pac-10 titles (five in a row). While the Trojans managed just a 6-6 record in Carroll's inaugural season, his team outscored it's opponents by 91 points and had a Pythagorean Record of 8.44-3.56. They were beset by a 2-5 record in close games (decided by seven points or less) and were actually the second best team in the conference behind Oregon. If I had been calculating SDPI five years ago, maybe their rise wouldn't have been so shocking.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006


Stanford


While Tyrone Willingham may have been a bad fit for Notre Dame, anyone who questions his coaching acumen need only look at what has happened to Stanford when he departed after the 2001 season. Since his departure, the Cardinal have gone 10-30 in Pac-10 play and not had an SDPI finish better than -0.82. In Willingham's four seasons featured in this analysis (he was actually there for three additional seasons not included here), his teams went 19-13 in conference play with two seasons where his teams were more than one standard deviation above average. Oh and he won a Pac-10 and SDPI title in 1999.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 1999


UCLA


Bob Toledo is responsible for the first five seasons and Karl Dorrell the last four. Besides the first two seasons, when UCLA was one of the best and then one of the worst teams in the Pac-10, they have been consistently about average the past seven seasons. During those seven years, they have gone 30-27 in conference play and have finished 4-4 four times and 5-4 once. Interestingly, in their best season record-wise in that span (2005) when they were 10-2 (6-2 in Pac-10 play), they were actually outscored in conference play and had a negative SDPI. Not surprisingly, the team improved its performance in 2006, but its record declined.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 1998


Washington


After beginning the new decade with a fantastic season, culminating with a Rose Bowl win over an over matched Purdue team, the Huskies have finished below average every season in Pac-10 play since. That Huskie team also delivered Miami it's only loss over a 40-game span. If not for their five-point win over the Canes in September of 2000, Miami could have conceivably been aiming for its 3rd consecutive national title in the 2002 Fiesta Bowl. Say what you will about Rick Neuheisel and his knowledge (or lack thereof) of gambling on amateur events, but the man was the glue holding the Huskies together. Since his departure, the Huskies have gone from mediocre to terrible. Things may be changing though, as Tyrone Willingham's teams have shown improvements in each of his two seasons on the job.

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd (1999 and 2000)


Washington State


This graph begins in 1998, the season after Washington State's surprising run to the Rose Bowl behind Ryan Leaf. The Cougars would suffer through three straight desolate seasons (three consecutive cellar SDPI finishes and a 3-21 conference record) before rebounding in 2001. This time the Cougars were quarterbacked by Jason Gesser. Although he went undrafted, his pro career was probably marginally better than Leaf's. Head coach Mike Price left for Alabama following the 2002 season (when the Cougs actually won the conference tiebreaker over Southern Cal). He famously never got to coach a game for the Tide. He was replaced by Bill Doba. Washington State remained strong in 2003 before falling off in 2004. They improved in 2006 and were approaching an average team. 2007 will go a long way in determining the fortunes of both Doba and the Washington State program. The seat couldn't be much warmer.

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd (2002)

Historical SDPI: The SEC

After running the SDPI numbers for all 11 conferences in 2006, I thought it would be an interesting sojourn through recent football history to look back at SDPI for the six BCS conferences throughout the entirety of the BCS era (98-06). It also gives me an excuse to add some pretty little graphs to the site. Don't know what SDPI is? Click here for an answer. Remember, its performance, not achievement, so years with the highest win totals may not actually be a certain team's best season. And its also only conference play, so any non-conference action, championship games, and bowl game are excluded. We'll continue with a look at the SEC. After each team's graph, there is a paragraph of commentary followed by the number of first place SDPI finishes or if there are no such finishes, the highest SDPI finish.


Alabama


Mike Dubose was the head man for the first three seasons featured here, taking the Tide to an SEC Championship in 1999. The 2000 squad that got him fired (and finished 3-8) was not nearly as bad as their record would indicate. They were a tough luck 0-3 in close games and played only one team, Vanderbilt (3-8), that finished with a losing record. Consequently, his successor, Dennis Franchione, was hardly stepping into a deplorable situation. After a 3-5 start in his inaugural season (2001), the Tide won their last four games, included amongst them a 24-point throttling of arch-rival Auburn and an exciting 14-13 Independence Bowl win over Iowa State. In Franchione's second and final season at Alabama, the Tide were actually the best team in the SEC, but thanks to probation were ineligible for postseason play. He left for what he thought were greener pastures at College Station following the 2002 season and was replaced by Mike Shula. For most of his tenure, Shula fielded average teams that were beset by terrible luck. His 2003 team was 0-6 in close games, the 2004 squad was 0-3, and his final team in 2006 was 3-5. In between he had a stroke of good luck as the 2005 Tide went 3-1 in close games in rout to a Cotton Bowl win.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2002

Best Non-Probation SDPI Finish: 4th (1999 and 2005)


Arkansas


Houston Nutt has been the head man for all nine seasons pictured. Until 2006, his best season was his first, as the Hogs were merely one stumble away from playing for the SEC Championship and derailing Tennessee's national title hopes. In the years between 1998 and 2006, Nutt kept the Hogs competitive in the SEC. They were never very much above or below average save for 2000 when they were roughly only the 10th best team in the SEC. They finished 3-5 in conference play, not winning any game by more than 11 points, but still qualified for a bowl with thanks mostly to a non-conference slate consisting of Missouri State, Boise State, and Louisiana-Monroe. If the Hogs were much worse than their final record in 2000, they were much better in both 2004 and 2005. The Hogs were a combined 9-13 over those two seasons (5-11 in SEC play), but most of that is due to a 1-7 record in close games (1-6 in SEC play).

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd (2006)


Auburn


Terry Bowden and Bill Oliver share culpability for the 1998 season and Tommy Tuberville has been in charge for every season beginning in 1999 when he came over from division rival Ole Miss. Bowden struggled a bit in his first and third seasons, but has had the Tigers above average every other season. The Auburn program is certainly in much better shape than it was when Tuberville first arrived. After surviving the attempted palace coup in 2003, Tuberville had his best teams, going a combined 15-1 in SEC play in 2004 and 2005.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2004 and 2005


Florida


Care to guess which seasons Steve Spurrier is responsible for? The decline of the program once Spurrier departed is really quite amazing. Perhaps Urban Meyer will return the Gators to consistent SEC title threat, but the 2006 season, despite it's ultimate finish should be seen for what it was. The Gators could just as easily have been playing in the Outback or Capital One Bowl if one or two breaks didn't go their way. The BCS Championship Game is one point in Florida's favor that they were the best team (and a large point). However, the one point win over Tennessee, the one point win over South Carolina, the five point win over Vanderbilt, a pair of seven point wins over Georgia and Florida State, and the loss at Auburn are counterpoints in that argument.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2000 and 2001


Georgia


Since taking over for Jim Donnan in 2001, Mark Richt has turned the Dawgs into a consistent threat to win the SEC Championship. While he has yet to have the best team in the conference, he has finished worse than 3rd only once, in 2006. In his other five seasons at the helm, Georgia has finished 2nd three times and 3rd twice.

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd (2002, 2003, and 2004)


Kentucky


Hal Mumme is the coach for the first three seasons, Guy Morriss the next two, and Rich Brooks the last four. Mumme, with his air raid attack, guided the Wildcats to middling seasons in 1998 and 1999, guiding them to bowl appearances in both seasons. The bottom fell out in 2000 and Mumme was replaced by Guy Morriss. Kentucky's decline in 2000 has a lot to do with what I like to theorize as 'The Rule of 4'. It's pretty intuitive: Only four teams in a given division at any one time can hope to have a successful season in leagues with two divisions. In 2000, South Carolina rose from their doormat status and became a solid SEC team. With Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee remaining strong, Kentucky had nowhere to go but down. The lone exception in my perusing of recent standings would be the SEC in 2006. Incidentally, don't be fooled by Kentucky's 2006 team. They really weren't that good. A beneficial intra-division schedule and some good luck got them to bowl eligibility. But I digress. The Wildcats improved in Morriss' first season and were even better in his second, nearly becoming a league average team and finishing with a winning record, but no bowl bid thanks to probation. If not for the LSU miracle, the Cats would have doubled up their loss total and finished 8-4. Coincidentally or not, the Cats unexpected rise coincided with a decline in Columbia keeping the Rule of 4 in equilibrium. Morriss left for Baylor after the season and was replaced by Rich Brooks. The Cats fell off a bit in 2003, then bottomed out in 2004. They have improved incrementally in the succeeding two seasons. They may improve performance-wise in 2007, but don't expect an uptick in their conference record. They are not an SEC East sleeper.

Best SDPI Finish: 8th (1998 and 2002)


LSU


Nick Saban's five season run on the Bayou is sandwiched between two from Gerry DiNardo and two from Les Miles. DiNardo fielded an average team in 1998 and then promptly ran the program into the ground in 1999 at which point he was fired. Saban immediately improved the Tigers' his first season and they held steady as an average to above average SEC team his first three seasons. Then in his fourth, they made the leap to conference power, and won a national title along the way. The team has remained strong under Les Miles and actually had their best conference season in the BCS era in 2006.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2003 and 2006


Mississippi


Tommy Tuberville is responsible for the first season, David Cutcliffe the next six and Ed Orgeron the last two. While the program had its share of ups and downs under Cutcliffe (it was at least one standard deviations above and below average twice), it also enjoyed its greatest recent success under him. Firing him just one season removed from a 7-1 conference record does not make a great deal of sense especially when you consider the caliber of programs the Rebs must contend with in the SEC West--Alabama, Auburn, LSU, and Arkansas all have equal or greater tradition, both recent and contemporary than Ole Miss. Hell, even Mississippi State has played in an SEC Championship Game. The Rebs have not won a conference title in over 40 years (1963). Orgeron may still do great things on the Grove, I'm all for giving new coaches a chance, but firing Cutcliffe was definitely the wrong move.

Best SDPI Finish: 4th (2003)


Mississippi State


The fall for Mississippi State has hard and it was fast. In 1998, Jackie Sherrill's charges won the SEC West and participated in the SEC Championship Game. It was the schools first conference title of any kind since 1941. The next season Mississippi State won ten games and in 2000, the Bulldogs doubled up their losses by going 8-4. The Bulldogs performance actually declined each season, but even the most pessimistic Bulldog fan could not have foreseen the impending collapse. In 2001, the Bulldogs dipped to 3-8 (2-6 in SEC play). They were bad (more than one and a half standard deviations below average), but they were also unlucky going 2-5 in close games (2-4 in close conference games). With that in mind, 2001 could easily be seen as a small bump in the road, especially considering Jackie Sherrill's track record at the school, which included six bowl appearances and seven winning seasons in eleven years up to that point. It wasn't a bump in the road. It was a major blowout that forced the Bulldog bandwagon to careen into oncoming traffic where they were T-boned by their conference rivals. Mississippi State won three games again in 2002, but they were much worse. They were 0-8 in SEC play, with the closest loss a seven point defeat to Arkansas. They lost every other conference game by at least twelve points and their three wins were over Troy (4-8), Memphis (3-9), and Jacksonville State (non-IA). Then the roof collapsed in 2003. The Bulldogs did win one conference game (a 30-21 decision over a 2-10 Vanderbilt team), but they were nowhere near competitive in their seven SEC losses. Every SEC loss was by at least 25 points and six were by at least 30. Sherrill and Mississippi State parted ways after the 2003 season and Sylvester Croom was brought in to replace him. The team improved under Croom from awful to merely bad in 2004, but they have been merely been treading water since.

Best SDPI Finish: 3rd (1999)


South Carolina


1998 marks the end of the Brad Scott era in Columbia. The team was bad, going 1-10 and losing their final ten games after a season opening win over Ball State. Still, Scott does own the distinction of being the head coach when the Gamecocks won their first bowl game in 1994. Lou Holtz took over for the 1999 season, and before he raised the program in 2000, he razed the program in 1999. That 1999 team finished 0-11. The defense while not good by any means, was close to adequate. They allowed 25.27 point per game (27 per game in conference play). The offense on the other hand, was simply atrocious. They scored 87 points in eleven games. The 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers, one of the best college football teams (probably the best) of the past quarter-century, scored over 70 twice and over 60 four times. South Carolina was shut out twice, held to single digits six times, and scored more than ten points only twice (with a high of 21 in the season finale against arch-rival Clemson). The Gamecocks immediately improved in the two subsequent seasons, posting consecutive Outback Bowl wins over Ohio State in 2000 and 2001. It looked like the Gamecocks were hatching into an SEC power at the turn of the century, but that was not to be. The team slumped in 2002 and 2003, finishing over one standard deviation below average both seasons, before improving to league average in 2004. Holtz left after the 2004 season, and Steve Spurrier took the spurs. Both Spurrier's teams have been about league average with his 2006 team actually besting the 2005 squad in terms of performance, but not conference record, thanks to a better record in close conference games in 2005 (4-1 in 2005 versus 1-4 in 2006).

Best SDPI Finish: 4th (2000)


Tennessee


Tennessee has the distinction of being one of only two SEC teams (Florida is the other) to be above average every season in the BCS era. That should give Phil Fulmer some pull at his next contract negotiation. Cue the Imperial March. The Vols have been at least one standard deviation above average six times in nine seasons (again tied for most with Florida). I'm not a Tennessee fan per se, but the 2004 incarnation does hold a special place in my heart as it was the inspiration and subject of my very first blog post. Like Tom Petty famously sang, even the losers get lucky sometime.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 1998 and 1999


Vanderbilt


Woody Widenhofer was the is the head coach for the first four seasons and Bobby Johnson for the last five. Woody's tenure at Vanderbilt was a far cry from his successful run as a linebackers coach and defensive coordinator for the Steel Curtain in the 1970's. His successor, Bobby Johnson, is notable both because he was at the helm for the best season in Vanderbilt's recent history and for his uncanny resemblance to 'The Jerk'.

Best SDPI Finish: 9th (2005)

Historical SDPI: The Big 12

After running the SDPI numbers for all 11 conferences in 2006, I thought it would be an interesting sojourn through recent football history to look back at SDPI for the six BCS conferences throughout the entirety of the BCS era (98-06). It also gives me an excuse to add some pretty little graphs to the site. Don't know what SDPI is? Click here for an answer. Remember, its performance, not achievement, so years with the highest win totals may not actually be a certain team's best season. And its also only conference play, so any non-conference action, championship games, and bowl game are excluded. We'll continue with a look at the Big 12. After each team's graph, there is a paragraph of commentary followed by the number of first place SDPI finishes or if there are no such finishes, the highest SDPI finish.


Baylor


It has not been a pretty run in the Big 12 for the Bears. In fact there have been very few bright spots since Grant Teaff left in 1992. In the BCS era, Dave Roberts (1998) begot Kevin Steele (1999-2002) who begot Guy Morriss (2003-current). The Bears have finished last in SDPI five times in nine seasons and second to last three more times. Morris has done an admirable job, nearly getting Baylor to bowl-eligibility in 2005, but even then they finished ahead of only a rebuilding Oklahoma State team in the SDPI rankings.

Best SDPI Finish: 10th (1998)


Colorado


Whether or not you agree with the decision to fire Gary Barnett based on his misogyny, general douche-baggary, ridiculous play calls, or lack of institutional control, its pretty clear the program was slipping under his watch. His four Big 12 North Division titles in five years have more to do with luck (SDPI ranks Colorado behind Nebraska in 2001, Kansas State in 2002 and Iowa State in 2005) and a supreme concentration of power in the Big 12 South (4-4 won the North Division in 2004 and 5-3 turned the trick in 2005) than any football Renaissance in Boulder. After a disappointing first year under Dan Hawkins, look for the Buffs to rebound in 2007.

Best SDPI Finish: 3rd (2002)


Iowa State


The Cyclones have certainly run the gamut in the Dan McCarney era, finishing last three times, but also as high as second. If the Cyclones manage to permanently turn the corner under Gene Chizik, hopefully McCarney's contributions will still be remembered. It's unfortunate the Cyclones happened to have terrible luck during their best season. In 2005, they were the second best team in the Big 12, but thanks to an 0-3 record in close conference games, the Cyclones only managed a 4-4 conference record and missed out on a date in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd--tied (2005)


Kansas


After Glenn Mason's departure in the mid-1990's, Jayhawk football was more or less something to kill time before hoops season began. While Jayhawk football will certainly never attain the level of popularity the basketball team enjoys (heck, the inventor of the game coached there), it has seen distinct improvement in the five seasons Mark Mangino has been on the job. What he may lack in aesthetics, he has more than made up for in on-field performance. In fact, the Jayhawks just enjoyed their best season in the Big 12 in the BCS era. Don't be shocked if they are even better in 2007.

Best SDPI Finish: 7th (2006)


Kansas State


With my unabashed man-crush on Bill Snyder, it was good to relive the glory days of the Kansas State program in the late 1990's. For more on my infatuation click here. Clearly though, the program had slipped in his last few seasons at the helm. Ron Prince arrived in 2006 and the team promptly improved--slightly. The slight uptick in performance belies their rather large improvement in achievement (from two Big 12 wins to four). Keep that in mind when prospecting forward to 2007.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 1998, 1999, and 2002


Missouri


Larry Smith is responsible for the first three seasons (1998-2000) and Gary Pinkel the last six. Smith guided the Tigers to their best season in the BCS era in 1998. Unfortunately, Mr. Smith lost a ton of talent to graduation following the 1998 season (including Corby Jones--a great college quarterback) and the Tigers won only one conference game in 1999. After another down season in 2000, Smith was canned and Pinkel was tabbed to replace him. Pinkel had previously coached at Toledo where he guided the Rockets to an undefeated season in 1995. In his six seasons at Missouri, the Tigers have been neither great nor terrible. That may change in 2007 as Pinkel probably has his best team yet at Missouri.

Best SDPI Finish: 4th (1998, 2003, and 2006)


Nebraska


Frank Solich kept the Huskers near the top of the college football world (though not quite the heights reached under Tom Osborne) for four seasons. The wheels came off in 2002, but Solich seemed to reverse the teams trajectory in 2003 before being fired despite a 10-3 record. Bill Callahan took over in 2005 and promptly guided the Huskers to their first losing season since 1961. The Huskers improved and were an average team in 2005. They improved yet again in 2006 and may be on their way to recovering their place in the Big 12 pecking order.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2000


Oklahoma

To Sooners' fans, Bob Stoops is the reason God made Oklahoma. Since mercifully ending the John Blake era following the 1998 season, Oklahoma has been at least one standard deviation better than their average conference brethren seven times in eight seasons.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2003 and 2004


Oklahoma State


Bob Simmons is the coach for the first three seasons shown here, Les Miles the next four, and Mike Gundy the final two. After taking the Pokes to the Alamo Bowl in 1998, Simmons could not muster more than three conference wins in any of the three succeeding seasons. Once Miles came on board, the team immediately improved. Although they didn't qualify for a bowl game in his first season (2001) they did knock off their arch-rivals in Norman and end their national title aspirations. Following three consecutive bowl seasons, Miles left for the greener pastures of LSU and handed the reigns to Mike Gundy. In his first season, it appeared as if Gundy was pissing away all the progress made under Miles as the Pokes were the worst team in the Big 12 in 2005. Gundy and the Pokes bounced back in 2006, giving more credence to the notion that patience is crucial. Look out for the Pokes as a sleeper in the Big 12 South this season.

Best SDPI Finish: 5th (2002, 2004, and 2006)


Texas


Mack Brown is responsible for every season shown here. He came to Austin from Chapel Hill prior to the 1998 season, replacing John Mackovic after a disappointing 4-7 campaign in 1997. The graph shows an interesting pattern for Brown's Texas teams. His teams appear to peak over a four-year period, peaking in the fourth season, and then falling off a bit the following season. Be on the lookout for another Longhorn national title in 2009.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2001, 2005, and 2006


Texas A&M


RC Slocum is responsible for the first five seasons and Dennis Franchione the last four. After participating in and winning the Big 12 Championship Game in 1998, Slocum's Aggies fell off a bit, but were still a solid Big 12 team; finishing below average only once. The decline is partly due to the resurrection of Big 12 South powers Texas and Oklahoma. Since the Aggies hired coach Fran to revive the program, he has yet to enjoy the heights reached by Slocum and has had two dreadful seasons in College Station. Maybe it wasn't such a good idea to hire a coach whose got a lot of leavin' left to do.

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd (1998)


Texas Tech


Spike Dykes is responsible for the first two seasons and Mike Leach the last seven. Dykes had a good 13-year run in Lubbock, taking the Red Raiders to six bowl games (he coached the Red Raiders in seven because he took over prior to the Independence Bowl in 1986) before his ouster following the 1999 season. While he may not get the accolades a certain other money-sport coach in Lubbock enjoys, Leach has done a terrific job. The Red Raiders have won at least seven games each season, been above average in regards to SDPI every year save Leach's first, and steadily improved, peaking in 2004 and 2005. In addition, Leach has also led the Raiders to some memorable bowl wins: the dismantling of Clemson in 2002, the upset of a 10-win Cal team in 2004, and the improbable comeback against Minnesota in 2006.

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd--tied (2005)

Historical SDPI: The Big East

After running the SDPI numbers for all 11 conferences in 2006, I thought it would be an interesting sojourn through recent football history to look back at SDPI for the six BCS conferences throughout the entirety of the BCS era (98-06). It also gives me an excuse to add some pretty little graphs to the site. Don't know what SDPI is? Click here for an answer. Remember, its performance, not achievement, so years with the highest win totals may not actually be a certain team's best season. And its also only conference play, so any non-conference action, championship games, and bowl game are excluded. We'll continue with a look at the Big East. I'm using the current membership of the Big East, so Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, and South Florida are included as well as former member Temple. After each team's graph, there is a paragraph of commentary followed by the number of first place SDPI finishes or if there are no such finishes, the highest SDPI finish.


Cincinnati

Only two seasons for the Bearcats in the Big East; one poor and one decent. The Bearcats lost a good coach in Mark Dantonio, but netted perhaps an upgrade in the offseason in Brian Kelly.

Best SDPI Finish: 5th (2006)


Connecticut

The Huskies have endured a steady decline under Randy Edsall since entering the Big East in 2004. Several factors have contributed to the Huskies decline.

1) The departure of perennial dreg Temple.
2) The ascension of perennial dreg Rutgers.
3) The league's acquisition of Conference USA powers Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida.

In 2004, the Huskies had a solid season that culminated in a bowl win over Toledo. However, they finished ahead of only Rutgers and Temple in the league standings. In 2005, Temple was given the boot, two of the three newcomers from Conference USA (Louisville and South Florida) jumped the Huskies, and Rutgers improved and passed them in the standings. Besides Cincinnati, only Syracuse (under first year coach Greg Robinson) finished below Connecticut in the standings. In 2006, Cincinnati improved substantially and Syracuse was marginally improved. Consequently, the Huskies had to settle for the basement.

Best SDPI Finish: 5th (2004)


Louisville

Louisville's been in the Big East for just two seasons. They were pretty good in 2005 and even better in 2006. That's the kind of ground-breaking analysis you can only get here.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2006


Pittsburgh

Walt Harris is responsible for the first seven seasons. As you can see, he took the Panthers from a Big East also-ran to respectability, peaking in 2002. The Panthers did win the Big East in 2004 thanks to a convoluted tie-breaker when four teams tied for the title. That good fortune earned the Panthers the opportunity to be crushed by Utah in the Fiesta Bowl and catapulted Urban Meyer to 'hot shit' status. It also earned Harris a bus ticket out of Pittsburgh straight to Palo Alto. Neither he nor the Panthers have benefited from the move. Harris went 6-17 in two years at Stanford before getting canned while the Panthers tabbed Dave Wannstedt as their man hoping to make a splash by hiring a former NFL head coach to lead their program. Despite widely regarded stellar recruiting classes, the Panthers have fallen from the levels of mediocrity they reached under Harris.

Best SDPI Finish: 3rd (2002)


Rutgers

Terry Shea is responsible for the first three seasons and Greg Schiano the final six. Rutgers should be an inspiration for hapless teams everywhere as their rise was as inspiring as it was unexpected. Schiano's teams improved each season with the exception of his first, so expecting a bowl bid in 2004 (in a Big East weakened by defections) was logical. Instead, after opening with an upset over Michigan State, the Knights proceeded to lose the next week to Division IAA New Hampshire. They did win three of their next four to stand 4-2 after six games. However, they lost their final five games to finish 4-7 and douse any hope that Rutgers could someday rise to the middle, much less the top of the Big East, especially with the talented teams coming in. The season opener in 2005 seemed a harbinger that Schiano and perhaps Rutgers football in general were poised to remain in the football proletariat. The Knights were upset 33-30 by an Illinois team that finished 2-9. But something happened on the way to another last place finish. The Knights won six of their next seven before the schedule toughened up (they lost three of their last four) and finished 7-5 with an appearance in the Insight Bowl against Arizona State. Then they took another step in 2006. Although their SDPI hardly belies an elite team, they were still only a play away from beating West Virginia and taking the Big East crown. The most amazing facet of the Knight's 2006 season is that a Louisville team that crushed them 56-5 only one year earlier was defeated in one of the better Thursday night games of the year. As well as being an inspiration to lowly basement dwellers with almost no football history, Rutgers is also an example of patience at work. Schiano did not take Rutgers to a bowl game until his fifth season. Turnarounds take time, and progress is not always straightforward. Rutgers regressed significantly (over half of a standard deviation) in Schiano's fourth season after improving in his second and third seasons. The administration did not fire Schiano and start all over on another rebuilding project. Instead they stayed the course and were rewarded with significant improvement in his fifth and sixth seasons.

Best SDPI Finish: 3rd (2006)


South Florida

Of all the SDPI rankings, this is the one I trust the least. According to SDPI, South Florida was better in 2005 than they were in 2006. One reason for the high ranking in 2005 is the fact that Big East teams play only seven conference games as opposed to at least eight for the other BCS leagues. Smaller sample size equates to greater variation. Each Big East conference game counts roughly 14% more than every other conferences' games in determining rankings (over 28% more than the Pac 10 now that they play nine conference games). And what was South Florida's most famous game in 2005? The 45-14 beatdown of Louisville. That one game bolsters their 2005 ranking by a significant margin.

Best SDPI Finish: 3rd (2005)


Syracuse

Paul Pasqualoni is responsible for the first seven seasons and Greg Robinson the last two. 1998, you may remember, was Donovan McNabb's senior season. After his departure, the Orangemen were mediocre until 2002 when they fell to the bottom half of the Big East standings. They rebounded to edge West Virginia for the mythical SDPI crown in 2004 in a Big East in limbo. However, after a blowout loss to Georgia Tech in the Champs Sports Bowl, Pasqualoni was let go. The results since have not been pretty. The Orange have finished second to last in the Big East SDPI standings in both 2005 and 2006. Was Pasqualoni Bear Bryant? No. But he was a solid coach who was 107-59 (.645) in his career at Syracuse. One mantra athletic directors should follow: Don't fire a good coach unless you have a great one lined up.

Best SDPI Finish: 1st (1998 and 2004)


Temple

Before they were given the boot after the 2004 season, the Owls consistently challenged Rutgers for the Big East basement.

Best SDPI Finish: 6th (2002)


West Virginia

The first three seasons are the end of the Don Nehlen era and the rest are all Rich Rodriguez. West Virginia had clearly slipped a notch at the end of the Nehlen era, giving way to Virginia Tech, Miami, and even Syracuse and Pittsburgh at the top of the Big East. After a rough first season, that included a loss to Temple, Rodriguez has had the Mountaineers at least one standard deviation above average every season since. If the defense can improve, West Virginia is a legitimate national title threat in 2007.

First Place SDPI Finishes: 2003 and 2005

Historical SDPI: The ACC

After running the SDPI numbers for all 11 conferences in 2006, I thought it would be an interesting sojourn through recent football history to look back at SDPI for the six BCS conferences throughout the entirety of the BCS era (98-06). It also gives me an excuse to add some pretty little graphs to the site. Don't know what SDPI is? Click here for an answer. Remember, its performance, not achievement, so years with the highest win totals may not actually be a certain team's best season. And its also only conference play, so any non-conference action, championship games, and bowl game are excluded. We'll begin with a tour through the ACC. I'm using the current membership of the ACC, so Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech are included here. After each team's graph, there is a paragraph of commentary followed by the number of first place SDPI finishes or if there are no such finishes, the highest SDPI finish.


Boston College

Tom O'Brien is responsible for all of these seasons having been the head man at BC since 1997. If O'Brien has been anything, its steady. He's never had a bad season nor a tremendous season. Since 2001, the Eagles have been above average every year save 2003, peaking in their last season in the watered-down Big East (2004) and again in O'Brien's final season this past year.

Best SDPI Finish: 3rd Big East (2001 and 2004), 4th ACC (2006)


Clemson

Tommy West is the first season and Tommy Bowden is every data point thereafter. In eight seasons, the Tigers have been at least one standard deviation above average (which implies residence in the top third of the conference) half the time. Bowden has also kept the program from the depths it experienced in West's final season.

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd (1999 and 2006)


Duke

Duke was awful under Fred Goldsmith in 1998, awful under Carl Franks until 2003, and awful under Ted Roof since then.

Best SDPI Finish: 8th (2000 and 2002)


Florida State

That's about as clear as a trend can be. The first three seasons are with Mark Richt as offensive coordinator. Immediately after he left following the 2000 season, there was an immediate decline from Ruthian powerhouse to Molitorian autocracy where the Seminoles remained for the next four seasons. Then the bottom fell out in 2005 and 2006 when Florida State entered their Erstadian phase. Will one man, Jimbo Fisher, be the savior for the Nole program and return them to their perch atop the conference standings?

First Place SDPI Finishes: 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003


Georgia Tech

The first four seasons are George O'Leary and the final five are Chan Gailey. O'Leary had the Jackets above average every season with him at the controls, while Gailey has turned the trick only once. This past season was on par with Tech's best under O'Leary (1998 and 2000) despite having Reggie Ball quarterbacking the team.

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd (1998 and 2000)


Maryland

The first three seasons are the messy end to the Ron Vanderlinden era. If nothing else, Vanderlinden certainly left 'The Fridge' some good players to work with as his best work came with the old regime's players. After a three-year run in the top third of the conference, the Terps have struggled to regain their footing finishing below average the past three seasons. Believe it or not, the Terps were not as good as their 5-3 conference record in 2006 record would indicate.

Best SDPI Finish: 2nd (2001, 2002, and 2003)


Miami

The Canes started out as a solid Big East team and kept improving under Butch Davis. When he departed in 2001, the team held steady under Larry Coker for two seasons before falling off a touch in 2003. Coker kept the team near the top of the new ACC for two seasons before falling on hard times (relatively) in 2006 thanks to an impotent offense.

First Place SDPI Finishes: Big East (2000, 2001, and 2002)

Best SDPI ACC Finish: 2nd (2005)


North Carolina

The Tar Heels were decidedly mediocre under Carl Torbush, which is a pretty damning reflection on him. Clearly the Tar Heels had talent during his tenure (1998-2000) since Mack Brown had just left town following consecutive 10-win seasons. His successor, John Bunting, for all his faults (not starting Willie Parker foremost among them) could coach talent. His first season (2001) was by far the Tar Heels best in the BCS era. That also happened to be the senior season for most of the players Mack Brown had begun recruiting. However, things turned ugly quickly as the Tar Heels fell into Duke-level suckitude in 2002 and 2003. They rebounded to post an average season in 2004 and before dipping again in 2005 and bottoming out in 2006.

Best SDPI Finish: 3rd (2001)


NC State

The first two seasons are Mike O'Cain's penultimate and final years and the remainder are the duration of the Chuck Amato era. O'Cain's firing is understandable, though not necessarily justifiable, after his team's poor showing in 1999. Amato's teams improved steadily through his first three seasons, so it was not unreasonable to fancy the Wolfpack as a legitimate threat to win the ACC in Phillip Rivers senior season (2003). NC State fell off a bit in 2003 and continued falling off for the next three seasons. Interestingly, their bowl winning season of 2006 was actually worse than 2004 when they finished 5-6. That's what happens when you swap Ohio State for Southern Miss in the non-conference schedule. Chuck Amato without Phillip Rivers is like Wham! without George Michael. NC State's average SDPI with Amato and Rivers: 0.385. NC State's average SDPI with Amato and without Rivers: -0.83.

Best SDPI Finish: 3rd (2002)


Virginia

The first three seasons are the end of the George Welsh era. The rest are Al Groh's handiwork. It does appear the program was in the midst of decline in Welsh's final few seasons. Still, the man coached one of the finest public institutions for 19 years and suffered only two losing seasons while guiding them to 12 bowl games. And the coup de grace, Virginia had never been to a bowl game before his arrival. Groh bottomed out in his first season in Charlottesville, but immediately brought the Wahoos back into relative contention. They regressed again in 2005, but appear to be heading back in the right direction.

Best SDPI Finish: 3rd (1998)


Virginia Tech

They might not have the rep of the Seminoles, but the Hokies run in the BCS era is second only to the Seminoles in any BCS conference. The Hokies have been above average every season. They have been at least one standard deviation better than the average of their league counterparts eight times in nine seasons. They have been two standard deviations above average four times and three standard deviations above average twice.

First Place SDPI Finishes: Big East (1999), ACC (2004, 2005, and 2006)


Wake Forest

Jim Caldwell is responsible for the first three seasons and Jim Grobe the remaining six. Caldwell coached a bad Deacs team, an average Deacs team, and a terrible Deacs team. Grobe has had the Deacons competitive since Day One, always hovering a little above or below average with the exception of 2004 when Wake was unluckier than Joe Btfsplk, going 1-6 in conference games decided by seven points or less. They saved up some karma from that season and cashed it in in 2006 when they were 4-0 in those same games (5-0 if the all important ACC Championship Game is included). This allowed them to win the league despite being only about the fifth best team.

Best SDPI Finish: 5th (1999, 2002, and 2006)

MAC Rewind: SDPI

One way to look at team strength, taken from Eddie Epstein’s fantastic book Dominance, is to look at teams points scored and allowed relative to the league average and standard deviation. The more standard deviations they are from the mean, the better (or worse they are). For those unfamiliar with what standard deviation is here’s the wikipedia link. In the coming weeks, I will be looking at each Division IA conference and ranking each team in regards to their Standard Deviation Power Index in conference play. Keep in mind, the SDPI does not adjust for schedule strength for conferences such as the ACC where each team does not play each other and it ignores special teams which can play a significant role in both points scored and points allowed.

If you want the meat of the article, skip this next paragraph as it just gives an example of how the SDPI is calculated. The mean points scored and allowed for all MAC teams in conference play (championship game not included) was 180 points. The standard deviation for points scored was 35.38. The standard deviation for points allowed was 51.08. Ohio scored 197 and allowed 119 points. The Bobcats' offensive SDPI was 0.48= ([197-180]/35.38). Their defensive SDPI was 1.19= ([180-119]/51.08). Their total SDPI was 1.67. This was the second best mark in the MAC in 2006.

First here's the link to the 2006 MAC Standings to refresh your memory.

Now here are the 2006 SDPI Standings:

Central Michigan 2.24
Ohio 1.67
Northern Illinois 1.47
Ball State 1.19
Kent State 0.56
Western Michigan 0.54
Miami -0.59
Akron -0.90
Bowling Green -1.06
Toledo -1.12
Eastern Michigan-1.97
Buffalo -2.03

The two best teams in the regular season met in the MAC Championship Game with the superior team taking home the title. Eastern Michigan and Buffalo were clearly the dregs of the MAC while every other team was at least marginally competitive. Clearly, the West Division was much stronger than the East in 2006. Three of the top four and four of the top six teams (every team that was above average) came from the West.

Best Offense: Central Michigan 1.55
Led by freshmen sensation Dan LeFevour, the Chippewas were a veritable juggernaut in conference play. They were contained in only one game, their lone conference defeat at Northern Illinois where they managed only 10 points. In non-conference tilts, the Chips gave big scares to both Boston College (lost by seven) and Kentucky (lost by nine).

Worst Offense: Eastern Michigan -2.09
The Eagles scored more than 20 points only once in conference play. In their last five conference games, Eastern Michigan quarterbacks threw one touchdown pass and eight interceptions.

Best Defense: Ohio 1.19
The main reason the Bobcats played in the MAC Championship Game was their significant improvement on defense in the second half of the conference season. Through their first three conference games, the Bobcats allowed 21.3 points per game (with at least 20 scored in each game). In their final five conference games, they allowed 11 points per game (allowing at least 20 points only once). Part of that can be explained by schedule, as the Bobcats played Buffalo and Eastern Michigan in the final set. In the MAC Championship Game against Central Michigan and the bowl game against Southern Mississippi, the Bobcats showed they still have a ways to go to bridge the talent gap as they allowed 31 and 28 points respectively in those games.

Worst Defense: Buffalo -2.62
The Bulls actually had an above average offense, but were at the bottom of the MAC standings thanks to a deplorable defense. The Bulls allowed at least 30 points in seven of their eight conference games. Two teams (Central Michigan and Ball State) dropped the infamous double-nickel on the Bulls and two more (Bowling Green and Ohio) broke the 40-point barrier.

Best Team that Didn't Go to a Bowl: Ball State 1.19
The Cardinals had the fourth best SDPI in the league and actually went 5-3 in conference play. However, they failed to win a single non-conference game thanks to scheduling three Big 10 teams (Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan) and horrible luck (lost all four non-conference games by an average of six points).

Worst Team that Went to a Bowl: Western Michigan 0.54
The Broncos were hardly a disgrace to the postseason--they were on par with Kent State, a notch below the top four teams in the conference. Their 6-2 conference record was due in part to a 3-1 record in close games.

Toughest Schedule (ranked by sum of opponent's SDPI): Eastern Michigan 5.49
Eastern Michigan played in the tougher MAC division (West) and in their three intra-conference games they drew the East's two best teams (Ohio and Kent State) while avoiding the weakest team (Buffalo). Schedule also hurt because they could not play themselves.

Easiest Schedule (ranked by sum of opponent's SDPI): Kent State -4.81
One season after going 1-10 the Golden Flashes improved significantly and finished 6-6. Or did they? Kent State played in the easier MAC division and in their intra-conference schedule drew the bottom two teams from the West (Toledo and Eastern Michigan) while avoiding the top two (Central Michigan and Northern Illinois). Overall, the Golden Flashes played the bottom six MAC teams (going 5-1 and winning by an average of 11 points per game). In their other two games, Kent State played the number two team (Ohio) and the number four team (Ball State). They lost both of these games by an average of 17 points per game.

Entire Schedule Strength (hardest to easiest):
Eastern Michigan 5.49
Buffalo 4.58
Toledo 2.07
Western Michigan 1.99
Miami 1.44
Akron 0.21
Northern Illinois -0.07
Ball State -0.90
Bowling Green -2.14
Central Michigan -3.88
Ohio -3.98
Kent State -4.81

Team(s) Likely to Decline: Ohio and Kent State
The Bobcats have made great strides under Frank Solich, but were extremely lucky to take home the East Division crown in 2006. They had the second easiest schedule in the league, avoiding the league's top team (Central Michigan) at least until the MAC Championship Game and facing both of the league's basement boys (Eastern Michigan and Buffalo). Their offense, particularly the passing game was sub-par. In 2007, the Bobcats will be without departed senior quarterback Austen Everson, the only quarterback who produced near average results in 2006. They will again be forced to rely on their defense which loses five starters including all three starting linebackers. Ohio could also easily lose three of their four non-conference games which would put them significantly behind the 8-ball before conference play even starts. The only sure win of the four games should be against Gardner Webb. In the other three, they play Louisiana-Lafayette, a winnable game, albeit one on the road, at Virginia Tech, a certain loss, and a home contest against Wyoming, which could go either way. A final factor working against Ohio is simple regression in the luck department. Ohio was 3-0 in close games last season. Any fall off in that department, and the Bobcats will not be back in postseason play. The scheduling gods were also extremely benevolent to Kent State last season. The Golden Flashes played the league's easiest schedule and still only managed a 5-3 conference record. Worse yet, they were somehow crushed by Buffalo, the league's worst team, 41-14. The Golden Flashes do return most of last season's 6-6 squad (8 starters on offense and 7 on defense), however the schedule also toughens up as they draw both Central Michigan and Northern Illinois from the West Division. The non-conference slate remains tough with trips to Iowa State, Kentucky, and Ohio State spread out around a sure win over Delaware State. Getting to six wins will be extremely tough for Kent State in 2007.

Team(s) Likely to Improve: Miami and Toledo
Believe it or not, the 2-10 Redhawks were just a notch below average in the MAC in 2006. Their schedule was middle of the pack (5th toughest), but they were only 2-5 in close games. The Redhawks return senior quarterback Mike Kokal who enjoyed a solid season despite throwing only 25 career passes before 2006. Couple that with 8 returning offensive starters, 7 returning defensive starters, a residence in the weaker half of the MAC (scheduled conference games against Temple and Buffalo), and a non-conference slate that isn't too tough (winnable home dates against Cincinnati and Syracuse, a winnable road game against Vanderbilt, and two likely losses at Minnesota and Colorado) and you have the perfect recipe for a bounceback season. At Toledo, Tom Amstutz suffered his first losing season, but still boasts a 50-25 in six seasons at the school. Amstutz's team was not significantly unlucky, as they were the 10th best team in the MAC last season. Still, they were closer to the seventh place team (Miami) in terms of performance than the eleventh place team (Eastern Michigan). The Rockets struggled in 2006 in part because they had to replace quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. Clint Cochran and Aaron Opelt didn't come close to approximating Gradkowski's performance in 2006, but the important thing is they won't have to in 2007 for the Rockets to have a successful season. Toledo returns 7 offensive starters and 8 defensive starters and Amstutz has proven himself to be one of the finer coaches in the game. Don't expect another season below .500 in conference play or overall.

Best Chance to Crash the BCS: Toledo or Central Michigan
These two teams should battle for the MAC West crown and should also be the favorites should they find themselves in the MAC Championship Game. The Rockets have the more favorable non-conference schedule (hosting Purdue, Iowa State, and Liberty while trekking to Kansas), but must travel to Central Michigan once conference play begins. Central Michigan on the other hand, must travel to Kansas, Purdue, and Clemson in non-conference action so neither team is likely to crash the BCS, but these are your best options.

Sun Belt Rewind: SDPI

One way to look at team strength, taken from Eddie Epstein’s fantastic book Dominance, is to look at teams points scored and allowed relative to the league average and standard deviation. The more standard deviations they are from the mean, the better (or worse they are). For those unfamiliar with what standard deviation is here’s the wikipedia link. In the coming weeks, I will be looking at each Division IA conference and ranking each team in regards to their Standard Deviation Power Index in conference play. Keep in mind, the SDPI does not adjust for schedule strength for conferences such as the ACC where each team does not play each other and it ignores special teams which can play a significant role in both points scored and points allowed.

If you want the meat of the article, skip this next paragraph as it just gives an example of how the SDPI is calculated. The mean points scored and allowed for all Sun Belt teams in conference play was 131.75 points. The standard deviation for points scored was 49.87. The standard deviation for points allowed was 27.54. Troy scored 177 and allowed 136 points. The Trojans' offensive SDPI was 0.91= ([177-131.75]/49.87). Their defensive SDPI was -0.15 = ([131.75-136]/27.54). Their total SDPI was 0.75 (not 0.76 due to rounding). This was the fourth best mark in the Sun Belt in 2006.

First here's the link to the 2006 Sun Belt Standings to refresh your memory.

Now here are the 2006 SDPI Standings:

Middle Tennessee 2.89
Louisiana-Monroe 1.29
Florida Atlantic 1.10
Troy 0.75
Arkansas State -0.52
Louisiana-Lafayette -0.81
North Texas -1.67
Florida International -3.02

After squeaking by Florida International in the opener 7-6, the Blue Raiders dominated the league, winning their next five conference games by at least 14 points. However, they technically did not win the league thanks to a one point setback to Troy. The Trojans also finished 6-1 in conference play, but were not nearly as dominant.

Best Offense: Middle Tennessee 1.45
After scoring only seven points in their opening win against Florida International, the Blue Raiders averaged 32.8 points per game over their last six Sun Belt contests.

Worst Offense: Florida International -1.56
The Golden Panthers were shut out twice, held to single digits five times, and peaked with 22 points scored in conference play.

Best Defense: Middle Tennessee 1.44
In Rick Stockstill's first season, the Blue Raiders dominated the Sun Belt on both sides of the ball. They never allowed more than 21 points in any conference game.

Worst Defense: Florida International -1.46
In Don Strock's final season, the Golden Panthers were dominated by their Sun Belt opponents on both sides of the ball. After somehow holding Middle Tennessee to seven points in their first game, no Sun Belt opponent scored fewer than 17.

Best Team that Didn't Go to a Bowl: Louisiana-Monroe 1.29
The Warhawks were a pretty good Sun Belt team (second best) that was beset by bad luck (more on that later).

Worst Team that Went to a Bowl: Troy 0.75
The Trojans were much better than the four teams below them in SDPI, but were extremely lucky to win the Sun Belt. They also caught a break in their bowl matchup, playing Rice who was vastly inferior to Middle Tennessee's opponent--Central Michigan.

Schedule Strength: No need to rank schedule strength since everybody plays everybody in the 8-team league.

Team(s) Likely to Decline: Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State
The Blue Raiders were far and away the Sun Belt's best team in 2006. They do return 8 starters on defense which is vital since they are losing their starting quarterback and running back. They should still be in contention for the Sun Belt title, but not be anywhere near as dominant as last season. The Arkansas State Indians finished 2006 with a 6-6 record and a 4-3 mark in Sun Belt play despite being outscored (both overall and in conference play). The Indians were 4-0 in close games, so they could easily have gone 2-10 or 3-9. Expect some regression in close games in 2006 and a losing Sun Belt record.

Teams(s) Likely to Improve: Louisiana-Monroe and Florida International
Despite ranking second in the Sun Belt in 2006 in SDPI, Louisiana-Monroe finished just 4-8 overall and 3-4 in conference play. The Warhawks were 0-5 in close games in 2006. They lost close conference games to Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, and Troy, but they also played some BCS schools tough on the road. They lost by two points at Kansas and at Kentucky. They bring back nine starters on offense (including quarterback, running back, and all five offensive linemen) and six on defense. The Warhawks are a real dark horse to win the Sun Belt in 2007. To be true, the Golden Panthers were awful in 2006, finishing 0-12. However, they paired extreme futility with poor luck as they were also 0-5 in close games in 2006. Another winless season is not in the cards for 2007.

Best Chance to Crash the BCS: No one. The talent must significantly improve in this league (the coaching talent is already there in some places) if anyone is to ever crash the BCS.