The Magnificent Seven: Week XII

A third straight 5-2 mark has us red hot heading into the home stretch. When will regression catch us in its grasp? Perhaps this week. Home teams in BOLD. 

*Editor's Note: The initial post included the Akron +14 Buffalo game. That game has been postponed due to weather and as of Friday, I am not sure it will be played. Thus, I have added another game. Enjoy.* 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 43-34

Navy +16 Central Florida

Central Florida needs one win in their final two games to lock up a spot in the AAC Championship Game. With a rudderless South Florida on deck, the odds are certainly in their favor. Fresh of a huge road victory against Tulane and before the War on I-4 clash with the Bulls, could the Knights be positioned in the dreaded sandwich spot against Navy? I think so. Navy has already clinched a third consecutive losing season, but they have been feisty, especially in conference play. The Midshipmen have covered their three other road conference games this season, despite catching double digits in each one. They even won one outright. Navy's pass defense is very bad, so the Knights will hit some big plays in the passing game. However, Navy has a fantastic run defense. They held Notre Dame to 66 yards on 34 carries last week. Once we correct for the accounting errors college football has with rushing numbers and remove the six sacks Navy accumulated, they still held the Irish below 100 yards on the ground at a little over three yards per carry. Service academies never quit (witness Navy's comeback in a cover last week against Notre Dame), so even if the Midshipmen get down in the first half or late in the game, the backdoor should be wide open. You never want to pick a game because you think a team can get in the backdoor, but it does help to have a team that won't pack it in if they are trailing by a big number in the second half. One other things to keep in mind is that this game kicks relatively early (11 AM). It may only play a minor role, but the patrons of the Bounce House won't have an extra hour to get lathered up. Take Navy to continue being a pest although not a big enough one to win the game outright. 

Auburn -5.5 Western Kentucky

This line seems oddly low considering the pedigree of both programs. While Auburn is likely to finish with a losing record and Western Kentucky has an outside shot at their conference title, there is still a wide gulf in the talent level of these teams. If you back Western Kentucky, you have to be of the opinion that Auburn will lack motivation. Early returns on interim coach Carnell Williams, suggest that will not be the case. I don't know if Williams is in contention for the full time job, and if I were an Auburn fan, I would not want him to be. His 'ra-ra' high energy coaching style might get old in normal times, but for a team in Auburn's situation, he has been the perfect stopgap. They overcame a big deficit on the road at Mississippi State in his first game and then beat Texas A&M for the first time since 2019 last week. Western Kentucky has won an SEC road game before, driving the final nail in the coffin of the Chad Morris era three seasons ago. While the circumstances may seem similar on the surface, I think Auburn will leave it all on the field in their final home game of the season. Plus, you are getting Auburn at an early Black Friday discount. Since 2004, the Tigers have not been favored by fewer than ten points against a Group of Five or non-BCS opponent at home. Take the Tigers to cruise to their second victory in a vintage Cadillac.  

Iowa +2.5 Minnesota

After opening conference play 1-3, the Iowa Hawkeyes have won three in a row and have a decent shot at returning to Indianapolis for the Big 10 Championship Game. Based on their results against Michigan and Ohio State this season, their odds of actually winning the Big 10 title are infinitesimal, but another division crown would be a nice accomplishment, especially considering how bad the offense has been at times this season. The defense of course, has been fantastic. Michigan and Ohio State combined to score 81 points on the Hawkeyes. Their other eight opponents have combined to score 58, with a high 13. Minnesota has dominated the cupcakes on their schedule with six of their seven wins coming by at least 27 points. However, most of those teams are very bad. The lone exception is an average Michigan State team and if you are being generous, a mediocre Rutgers team. The Gophers have lost to the three teams with winning records they have faced (Illinois, Purdue, and Penn State). They have averaged less than fourteen points per game in those three contests. How many points are they going to score against Iowa? The Hawkeyes have won the past seven in this series and Kirk Ferentz is 17-6 straight up against Minnesota (17-4 since 2001). One college football memory that sticks out in my mind is Iowa fans tearing down the goalposts in the Metrodome when the Hawkeyes beat Minnesota in 2002 to clinch a share of the Big 10 title. That Iowa team actually had a Heisman candidate...on offense! Look it up kids if you don't believe me. I don't think goalposts will come down, but Iowa will inch closer to a division title. 

Arkansas State +6 Texas State

This otherwise inconsequential Sun Belt games between two losing teams playing out the string does have a bit of intrigue. Both quarterbacks in this game, James Blackman of Arkansas State and Layne Hatcher of Texas State, played for Arkansas State last season. Blackman started the first six games with Hatcher seeing action in all but one of Blackman's starts. Blackman was lost for the year in the sixth game and Hatcher started all the games in the second half of the year. Both quarterbacks were pretty mediocre by Group of Five standards, but the defense was horrendous and the team won just a single game against FBS opponents. Hatcher transferred to Texas State and has played at about the same level. Blackman has played slightly better at Arkansas State, but neither has put up great numbers. Texas State looked like they might be a Sun Belt sleeper in early October when they upset Appalachian State, but they have lost four straight and head coach Jake Spavital is likely on the way out when the season ends. Arkansas State ended their own four-game skid last week when they edged Massachusetts. That must be why this spread is nearly up to a touchdown. I can't think of any other reason why Texas State would be such a big favorite in a conference game. Texas State has won the past two contests in this series, but in their nine previous meetings as Sun Belt opponents, Arkansas State has been favored in each one. That is a solid trend of the betting market deeming Arkansas State the better team. I think the market has swung too far toward Texas State. Take the Red Wolves and the points. 

Wyoming +14 Boise State

When Craig Bohl came to Wyoming prior to the 2014 season, I expected him to have success at Laramie. And he was sort of delivered. By historical standards, his run has been successful. Counting 2022, the Cowboys have been bowl eligible in the past six non-pandemic seasons. However, they have only played in one Mountain West Championship Game in his tenure. And they were captained by a generational talent that season. This season, the Cowboys have a chance to get to a second conference title game. All they have to do is beat Boise State at home and then win at Fresno State next week. Piece of cake. Both teams have overcome rough first halves to get here. Wyoming began the year with an embarrassing performance at Illinois and was 3-3 halfway through the season. They have won four in a row since. Meanwhile, Boise State began the year 2-2 and fired their offensive coordinator. They have since won five of six, with the lone loss coming in a non-conference game against BYU. While Boise has dominated their opponents in that stretch, their lone road game against a competent foe came against Air Force. The Broncos were actually underdogs in that game, but got out to a big lead and held on to win 19-14. The Falcons were able to shut down the Boise running game (held them to 115 yards and under three yards per carry). I think Wyoming will be able to pull off a similar feat. Boise's freshman quarterback Taylen Green has played well, but the Broncos don't rely on their passing offense to win games (108th nationally in passing attempts). Wyoming also eschews the pass (123rd nationally in passing attempts) so that should mean a lot of runs and a running clock. Wyoming is 6-2 ATS against Boise under Craig Bohl, and in the past five games the Cowboys have contained Boise's offense, holding them to under twenty four points per game. I expect another low-scoring game, so take the dog catching two touchdowns. 

UCLA +2.5 Southern Cal

The Battle of Los Angeles is not just a Rage Against the Machine album anymore. With the Bruins and Trojans both enjoying good seasons, this is the biggest game in this rivalry since at least 2014 and possibly longer. Southern Cal still has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff and while this matchup lost a little luster with UCLA's loss to Arizona last week, I think that was more about the Bruins potentially looking ahead to this spot. Rest assured, the Trojans will have their full attention. While Southern Cal has the higher ranking, UCLA has played better on offense and defense in Pac-12 play, leading the Trojans in Net Yards Per Play (1.65 to 0.98) against a slightly tougher Pac-12 schedule. The teams have played five common opponents (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, and Utah) and the Trojans have played Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State. Meanwhile, UCLA has Cal next week, but has played Oregon and Washington. UCLA is 8-5 as a home underdog under Chip Kelly, but they are 4-0 ATS with four outright wins since the start of the 2021 season. This is the spot Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been dreaming of all season. He will put on a show in his final home game against an arch-rival. Take the Bruins and the points. 

Colorado State +21.5 Air Force

Jay Norvell's first season at Colorado State has been eerily reminiscent of his first season at Nevada. Five years ago, Norvell took over a Nevada team that had gone 5-7 the previous season, but was hardly at the bottom of the Mountain West. Norvell brought an Air Raid type offense to Reno and the Wolfpack were slow to adjust. They lost their first five games of the year, including one to an FCS team. In those first five games, they averaged twenty points per game. However, over their final seven games, they won three and averaged 34 points per game. Similarly, Norvell took over a Colorado State team that finished 3-9 last season, but was better than its record and has one of the best stadiums in the Group of Five. Once again, he brought over the Air Raid and the team struggled early. The Rams lost their first four games, including an ugly blowout to an FCS team. They managed to beat Norvell's former team in their fifth game, but still only scored 17 points. In fact, the Rams have not scored more than 19 points all season. So how can I justify taking a team that has not scored twenty points all season? Look at the yards, and more specifically, the yards per play. The Rams have averaged north of six yards per play in three of their past four games after failing to reach five yards per play in their first six games. The Rams won't win this game, but they will stay within three touchdowns against a triple option variant service academy. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XI

Three winning weeks in a row have us with our best winning percentage of the season. There are a lot of road teams and ugly dogs on the card this week, so tread lightly. Home teams in BOLD. 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 38-32

Connecticut +14 Liberty

Jim Mora Jr., our nation turns its lonely eyes to you (woo woo woo, woo woo woo). The Huskies appear to be the only thing standing between Liberty and a 11-1 regular season finish. Following their trip to Storrs, the Flames host Virginia Tech and New Mexico State. I hate Liberty and everything the university stands for. Hypocrisy permeates throughout the program, from the former president of the university to the current head coach of the football team. Perhaps my emotions have gotten the better of me in making this pick, but I think the Huskies have a real shot to extinguish the Flames. A month ago, Liberty barely escaped at home against Gardner-Webb. The Bulldogs are 4-5, but they have put a scare into both Coastal Carolina and Liberty this season. In their two games since that harrowing escape, Liberty has beaten two legitimate programs in BYU and Arkansas. Credit Hugh Freeze for adapting his game plan. Against BYU, the Flames took advantage of a bad BYU run defense in accumulating 300 yards on the ground at over six yards a pop. Following a bye, Liberty took advantage of a poor Arkansas secondary and averaged nine yards per pass. They also held Arkansas without a touchdown through the first three quarters before the Hogs woke up in the fourth. Liberty allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns, but held Arkansas out of the endzone on a two-point conversion attempt to seal the win. Hugh Freeze is a great coach, but this has letdown written all over it, especially with him openly angling for jobs in his old conference. Meanwhile, Connecticut needs one more win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2015 (and second time since their Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2010). When not facing ranked Power Five opponents, the Huskies have fared pretty well this season, winning five of seven games while allowing fourteen points per game. The Huskies probably don't have enough firepower to win the game outright, but they are feisty enough to cover this number. 

LSU -3.5 Arkansas

This is a spot where LSU may be primed for a letdown, but I am going to back the Tigers. While their victory against Alabama might ordinarily make them overlook their next opponent, LSU still has work to do to win the SEC West. Ole Miss only has one loss, so the Tigers may need to sweep their remaining SEC games (Arkansas and Texas A&M) to secure a trip to Atlanta. And of course, Alabama is always lurking should the Tigers potentially slip up in both games. I think a seasoned (and authoritarian) coach like Brian Kelly will have the Tigers prepared in a tricky road spot. LSU should be able to move the ball against an Arkansas defense that is second worst in the SEC in yards allowed per play (bested only by Vandy). Their pass defense is among the worst in the country, allowing nearly nine yards per throw. The Arkansas offense, especially with a healthy KJ Jefferson is potent, but LSU should be able to outlast them in a shootout. The Tigers have fared well in their past few visits to Arkansas, winning four of the past five, and if they needed additional motivation besides an SEC title and pipe dream of a spot in the College Football Playoff, Arkansas won in Baton Rouge last season, so revenge might be on their minds. Take the Tigers to cover this short number on the road. 

Navy +16 Notre Dame @ Baltimore

Notre Dame has had an odd season under first year head coach Marcus Freeman. The Irish are 3-0 against ACC teams, inflicting the only losses (thus far) on the likely ACC Championship Game participants. They are 3-3 against everyone else, with home losses to Marshall and Stanford. Fresh off their biggest victory of the season, they are in a prime letdown spot against a bad Navy team. While the Midshipmen have struggled offensively for a third consecutive season, their run defense has been pretty good. Navy is thirteenth nationally in yards allowed per rush. By contrast, they are bottom ten nationally in yards allowed per pass attempt. Fortunately for the Midshipmen, Notre Dame prefers to keep the ball on the ground, as they rank eighteenth nationally in rushing attempts per game and 115th in pass attempts per game. Like a perfect puzzle piece, Navy's defensive strength matches up well with Notre Dame's preferred offensive philosophy. As I mentioned, the Navy offense has struggled, averaging about 22 points per game, so they probably lack the firepower to win this game outright. Covering more than two touchdowns though? That's another story. One final thing to keep in mind when handicapping Navy is to look how they have performed ATS in their bad seasons. Under Ken Niumatalolo, Navy has had five bad seasons (including 2022). Unfortunately, four of those five bad seasons have come since 2018. However, even in those bad seasons, Navy has still done well in covering as a road or neutral site underdog. The Midshipmen are 15-6 ATS in such games, including a perfect 4-0 this season. Notre Dame is riding high after their victory against Clemson last week, but while the Irish managed 35 points, they scored two non-offensive touchdowns to buoy their point total. Take Navy to keep this one close. 

Boston College +19 NC State

Every Sunday or Monday after the college football slate is over, I head to cfbstats and peruse the numbers for each conference. I did a double take when looking at the ACC. NC State, currently the seventeenth best team in the nation according to the latest AP Poll, ranks last in the ACC in both yards per play and yards allowed per play. How have the Wolfpack managed to win three of five conference games despite their down by down struggles? The Wolfpack are +4 in turnovers in ACC games (+6 in their four games not involving Clemson). They have also made all 13 of their field goal attempts in conference play. Opponents have not fared horribly in kicks, having made five of seven, but those eight additional field goals are a net of 24 total points by my math. Finally, NC State has won the close ones, beating Florida State by two and Virginia Tech by one. Boston College has also been pretty bad on both sides of the ball in 2022, but should they be catching nearly three touchdowns? The Eagles have been grounded on the road this season, averaging just over ten points per game (as compared to just over 22 per game at home against FBS opponents), but how many points do you expect NC State to score? The Wolfpack are averaging a shade over 27 points per game on the season, but if we remove their FCS game and their contest against Connecticut, the Wolfpack have averaged just north of 21 points per game. Can Boston College score more than ten points against NC State? If so, they can cover this inflated spread. Finally, recent history suggests Boston College is the right side. NC State is 4-4 against the Eagles under Dave Doeren, but the Wolfpack have been favored in seven of those games. In fact, they are 1-2 against the Eagles in Raleigh and 0-3 ATS. While Boston College may be led by a quarterback making his first ever road start, let's not forget NC State will be led by a quarterback making his second career start as well. MJ Morris has looked good in the first two games he has seen significant action, but he is still a true freshman with limited experience. Take Boston College and the points. 

Florida State -7 Syracuse

After a 6-0 start, the Orange have fallen back to earth. Despite being outplayed, Syracuse was in the game at Clemson thanks to a long fumble return touchdown. They followed that up by losing at home to Notre Dame and then lost a snoozefest with their backup quarterback at Pitt. The Orange still have Boston College on the schedule, so they still have a real shot at seven regular season wins. However, I think the optimism that was present in upstate New York last month is about to fall by the wayside (if it hasn't already). While Syracuse is presently in a funk, Florida State snapped out of their midseason funk. The Seminoles lost three consecutive games after a 4-0 start, but have the per play profile of a dominant team. They have outgained ACC opponents by more than two yards per play! They moved the ball well in all three losses (averaging 6.29 yards per play), but glitched out on third and occasionally fourth down. The Seminoles converted 16 of 37 third downs (43%) in those games and were two of six on fourth down, including a one for four showing against Clemson. Despite averaging under five yards per play (4.90), their three opponents converted third downs at an almost identical rate (44%) and were slightly more efficient on fourth down (four of six). Their poor showing in those three games obscured the fact that Florida State may in fact, be back. It could all go sideways in the former Carrier Dome, but I think these teams are trending in different ways and despite the relatively large number, I'll back the Seminoles. 

California +14 Oregon State

At this point, Cal is almost an auto-play when they are catching double digits. The Bears covered as big underdogs against Southern Cal last week bringing their ATS mark as a road underdog under Justin Wilcox to 16-5, including 8-3 as a double digit road underdog. The Bears were not able to win the game outright, so their bowl hopes are on life support as they have lost six of seven. Asking them to win in Corvallis is probably too much, but I think they can keep it close against the best per play defense in the Pac-12. The Beavers typically won with offense under head coach and former quarterback Jonathan Smith. During his first four seasons in charge, the Beavers were 3-20 when they failed to score at least 30 points. The Beavers still have a losing record in such contests this season, but they are a respectable 2-3. Oregon State has a weird statistical profile as they have a great per play defense, but rarely generate negative plays. The Beavers have twelve sacks on the season (tied for 121st nationally) and 45 tackles for loss (tied for 100th nationally). Cal's offensive line has struggled this season, allowing 28 sacks thus far (tied for 111th nationally). The Beavers will be in the backfield more than usual, but their defensive front will not dominate Cal's weakest link like some good defenses might. To cover big spreads, you have to score a lot of points. And that is not something Oregon State has done since Pac-12 play started. In non-conference games against two solid G5 teams (Boise State and Fresno State) and an FCS team, the Beavers averaged nearly 46 points per game. However, they have topped 30 points in Pac-12 play once and that came against Colorado. In their five other Pac-12 games, they have averaged just under 21 points per game. They won't score enough to cover this number. 

San Diego State +3 San Jose State

After a rough start to the season, Brady Hoke has righted the ship at San Diego State. The Aztecs opened the year 2-3, losing to two Pac-12 teams they defeated last season, and getting blown out by Boise State. Since that Boise State loss, the Aztecs have won three of four and if not for a miraculous last minute comeback by Fresno State would be riding a four-game streak and in control of the West Division of the Mountain West. Meanwhile, San Jose State has struggled over the past month. I know the team tragically lost Camdan McWright three weeks ago, but their struggles started prior to that. Through their first five games, the Spartans were 4-1, with their only loss coming at Auburn. They had dominated their two Mountain West opponents, beating Wyoming and UNLV by a combined fifty points. Then they managed just ten points in a road loss to a Fresno State team still missing their starting quarterback. Their non-conference game with New Mexico State the next week was canceled due to the death McWright. They returned to play with home games against two of the worst teams in FBS, Nevada and Colorado State. While they ultimately prevailed, they trailed Nevada in the fourth quarter and were up only one score on Colorado State in the fourth. Something is wrong with the Spartans and they should not be laying points on the road. San Diego State has won eight of the nine matchups since San Jose State joined the Mountain West in 2013. Their lone loss came in the pandemic season of 2020. The Spartans are 3-2 ATS against the Aztecs under head coach Brent Brennan, but they have been at least a touchdown underdog in all five games. Covering as a dog is a lot different than covering as a favorite, especially on the road. The wrong team is favored in this spot. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week X

Two winning weeks in a row. Can we make it three? Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 33-30

Boston College +10 Duke

2022 has been a disappointing season for Boston College. The Eagles are 2-6, have beaten one FBS team, and lost to Connecticut last week. The Eagles were not expected to contend for an ACC title, but since joining the conference in 2005, they had only failed to reach six wins three times. Six victories is nigh impossible now with two ranked teams remaining on the schedule plus Notre Dame. While Boston College has disappointed, Duke has overachieved in Mike Elko's first season. After going 1-17 in ACC play over David Cutcliffe's final two seasons, the Blue Devils have a .500 conference record and are one win away from bowl eligibility. While Duke has been the better team in 2022, asking them to lay double digits on the road might be a bridge too far. Duke has played four road games this season, and while they have won half of them, they were double digit underdogs twice (Northwestern and Miami) and a touchdown underdog in one (Kansas). In the lone road game where they were favored (Georgia Tech), they lost. The Eagles were field goal favorites at Georgia Tech (which I'll reiterate, they lost) and now a month later, they are double digit road favorites. Boston College does not have a great track record as a home underdog under Jeff Hafley, posting a 5-4 ATS mark in the role. However, all four teams that covered against the Eagles were ranked in the AP Poll at the time of the game (Notre Dame in 2020, NC State and Wake Forest in 2021, and Clemson in 2022). You'll note that Duke does not have a little number next to their name. Boston College has struggled mightily on the road, averaging just over ten points per game. However, they have been competent at home, averaging nearly twenty points per game against FBS opponents in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles will put up a fight on Friday night and cover this number. 

Army +7 Air Force (@Arlington)

2022 has been a disappointing season for the service academies. Navy is 3-5 and staring down the barrel of a third straight losing season. Army is 3-4 and has a chance to get to bowl eligibility, but the Black Knights are just 1-4 against FBS opponents. Finally, while Air Force has the best record of the bunch at 5-3, they have lost three times as a betting favorite, including twice as a double digit favorite. The Mountain West is down this season, so its quite possible the Falcons end up being favored in every game! While each service academy has disappointed this season, I expect a quality effort from both teams. I think the handicap on this game is simple. These teams are intimately familiar with each other, playing each season and running offenses that branch from the same option tree. That familiarity typically leads to lower scoring games which introduces more variance and favors the underdog. In addition, while Air Force is 10-5 against Army under Troy Calhoun, they have dropped four of the past five as Army has gotten its act together under Jeff Monken. The underdog has also covered six straight in this series with four outright wins. Take the Black Knights and the touchdown.  

Missouri +1 Kentucky

One of the more incredible stories that has played out over the past two years in college football that has received zero national attention is the emergence of the Missouri defense. Last season, in their ten games against Power Five opponents, Missouri allowed 6.56 yards per play. Those ghastly numbers included some defensive improvement down the stretch. Over their final three games, Missouri allowed 5.48 yards per play. I was not expecting much improvement in 2022. After they lost 40-12 to Kansas State in their second game, I didn't expect to be paying much attention to Missouri this season. However, despite the blowout loss, Missouri did hold Kansas State to their second lowest season total in both total offense (336 yards) and yards per play (5.33). The Tigers were done in by turnovers (-3 margin in the game) and a Kansas State specialty (non-offensive touchdowns). Once SEC play began, the Tigers continued to clamp down on opposing offenses, but could not end up on the right side of the scoreboard. They lost their first three conference games by 14 total points, but held Auburn, Georgia, and Florida to just 5.21 yards per play. Once the schedule eased up, the defense played even better, holding Vanderbilt and South Carolina to 24 total points and under four yards per play. On the season, three SEC defenses have held their opponents below five yards per play in conference games. Two are obvious (Alabama and Georgia) and the third is Missouri. That defense will be severely tested next week in Knoxville, but the Tigers have a great chance to move within a game of bowl eligibility against Kentucky. While the Wildcats have a quarterback that some believe will be a high draft round pick, he passed for 98 yards last week against a weak Tennessee secondary. The Kentucky program is in a much better position than they were when Mark Stoops took over nearly ten years ago (time flies), but they are not used to laying points on the road in the SEC. In fact it has only happened five previous time in his tenure. The Wildcats are 2-3 ATS in that small sample and have lost two of the games outright, including two years ago at Missouri. The Tigers have the better offense, the better defense, and are playing at home, so you better take the points. 

Iowa +3 Purdue

This Big 10 nooner is a clash between the resistible force and the infinitely movable object. Purdue has the worst per play defense of any Big 10 team in conference play. Meanwhile, Iowa's offensive struggles have been documented all season, but the Hawkeyes actually rank ahead of both Indiana and Rutgers in yards per play among Big 10 teams. A lot of that is due to their performance last week against Northwestern when they scored a season high 33 points and averaged over six yards per play for the first time all season and just the second time in the past two seasons! With another bad defense on the docket, can Iowa put up back to back 30 point games? That is probably too much to ask, but I expect a solid offensive performance against Purdue. The over/under is currently 39.5, so the spread implies a final score of roughly 21-18 in favor of Purdue. I expect Iowa to eclipse that team total and their defense is very capable of holding Purdue below their implied point total as well. Despite having faced both Michigan and Ohio State (best per play offenses in the Big 10), Iowa has the second best per play defense in the conference. Couple that with the fact that Purdue has struggled as a home favorite under Jeff Brohm (4-10 ATS as a home favorite versus Big 10 teams) and the Hawkeyes are the play. 

Nebraska +16 Minnesota

Give Minnesota credit. If you are a bad football team, they will curb stomp you into oblivion. In their five victories, they have outscored their opponents 214-24. Even if we remove their FCS scrimmage against Western Illinois, their four FBS wins have come by a cumulative score of 152-14. Those four teams (Colorado, Michigan State, New Mexico State, and Rutgers) sport a combined record of 11-21, with Rutgers owning the best record (4-4). On the surface, and certainly by the spread, this seems destined to be another blowout. However, unlike those four teams, Nebraska can actually move the ball. Illinois held Nebraska to nine points last week, but Nebraska moved the ball as well as anyone has against the Illini this season. Unfortunately, they also committed four turnovers, which has been a running theme for the team this season. Nebraska has committed 17 turnovers this season (118th nationally) and in Big 10 play, their margin of -6 is a big reason for their losing record. Turnovers, while often a characteristic of bad teams, can be highly volatile, so just because the Cornhuskers have turned the ball over frequently thus far does not mean they will continue to do so. Besides being turnover prone, Nebraska also has a bad defense, so I don't expect them to generate many stops against the Gophers. Minnesota was laying about fourteen points last week at home against Rutgers. Now, they are laying more than that on the road against a similarly power rated team? I know Nebraska quarterback Casey Thompson could miss the game with an elbow injury, but reports list his status as day to day. If he plays, you are getting about a touchdown of value in this spread. If he misses the game, Nebraska will start either Chubba Purdy or Logan Smothers, two quarterbacks with limited experience. While that can certainly be detrimental to Nebraska covering this number, it also makes the game more volatile. Is Minnesota prepared for either of those quarterbacks? How good is either quarterback? Your guess is as good as mine. Uncertainty can be bad, but in this case, I think you can benefit from the uncertainty surrounding the Nebraska quarterback position. Take the Cornhuskers and the points. 

Louisiana-Lafayette +5 Troy

The Troy Trojans are 6-2 in Jon Sumrall's first season and with a victory over the Ragin' Cajuns, they will have a tight grip on the Sun Belt West. The Trojans lone Sun Belt defeat came in dramatic fashion against Appalachian State. The Trojans allowed 32 points to the Mountaineers, including six on the games final play. However, since that loss, the Trojans have allowed 37 total points in their next four Sun Belt games (all wins). Defensively, Troy has been just as impressive on a per play basis, holding Sun Belt opponents to a conference best 4.31 yards per play. If they can escape Lafayette, their final two conference games are against teams with a combined 2-8 conference record (Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe), so Troy fans can probably make Sun Belt Championship Game plans. Louisiana-Lafayette is also led by a first year head coach. Former quarterback Michael Desormeaux took over for Billy Napier, and while a decline was expected, the the Ragin's Cajuns have lost more Sun Belt games this season (3) than they did in Napier's final three seasons (2). While the Ragin' Cajuns have declined, they are still pretty tough at home. They are 3-1 in home games and have covered in all three of their FBS home games. Their lone home loss came to South Alabama on a last second field goal in a game where they entered as a touchdown underdog. Meanwhile, although Troy is 6-2, they have only been favored in three games. The Trojans have won games when the betting market did not expect it. This is also the first time they have been favored in a road game this season. I think the betting market has oscillated too far in their favor. In Troy's four game Sun Belt winning streak, they have averaged just over seventeen points per game. Their defense has played great in that span, but the Trojans have not been able to roll over teams. I expect another close, low-scoring game on Saturday, so I'll grab the points with the Ragin' Cajuns. 

Cal +21.5 Southern Cal

This line has crossed a key number since opening at 18.5 and despite their struggles, that makes the Bears too enticing to pass up. I understand the anti-Cal sentiment in the market. The Bears have lost five of six games since a 2-0 start, including a listless loss at Colorado. While five losses in six games is never a great look, three of those defeats came by exactly a touchdown (Colorado, Notre Dame, and Washington). Obviously, losing by a touchdown to Colorado is terrible, but the Bears were feisty against two solid teams (Notre Dame and Washington). In fact, the Bears have been feisty as an underdog for the duration of the Justin Wilcox era. Under Wilcox, the Bears are 15-5 ATS as a road underdog, including 7-3 ATS as a double digit road underdog. The Cal defense is not up to its usual standard under Wilcox, but have you looked at the defense on the other sideline? Southern Cal is allowing over six yards per play to Pac-12 opponents and their largest margin of victory against a Power Five team this season is seventeen points (Arizona State). The Trojans dominated Rice in their opener and beat Fresno by 28 in a game where the Bulldogs lost their starting quarterback to injury. They have done all this while avoiding and forcing turnovers at an historic clip. The Trojans have committed an amazing one turnover all season while forcing seventeen, with many coming while opponents were in prime scoring position. Turnovers are highly variable and volatile so its likely we see regression in that department over the final third of the season. This spread is too inflated, so despite my misgivings, I have to back Cal. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IX

We got back .500 with a winning week last week. Let's see if we can go back to back. Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 28-28

Charlotte +16.5 Rice

The Club Lit era at Charlotte is over. After guiding the 49ers to their first bowl game in school history in his first season in 2019, Will Healy could not field a competent defense over the past two seasons and lost his job following a loss to Florida International last week. The 49ers have lost seven consecutive Conference USA games since beating, wait for it, Rice, last November. That victory was the 49ers fifth last season, but they dropped their final three games and missed out on a bowl. Their defense was truly atrocious last season, as they allowed over seven and a half yards per play to conference opponents. Believe it or not, while their defense is still bad in 2022, they have improved by about a yard per play against conference opponents. I don't expect Charlotte to pitch a shutout, but Rice will probably not score as many points this week as they did last week. Louisiana Tech actually owns the worst per play defense in Conference USA, so we probably saw peak Rice (at least offensively) last week. There are two questions that must be answered before you back Charlotte. The first is, have the 49ers quit? Healy is out and Pete Rossomando is in. Can the interim coach motivate the team or are they checked out and ready for 2023? The other question concerns quarterback Chris Reynolds. Will Reynolds start and finish the game? If so, the 49ers should be able to score enough to cover this number. Reynolds backups have not played well when he has missed time this season. I'll bank on him avoiding injury in this game and the team staying motivated for at least one more week. If the losses continue to mount, it might be time to evacuate the mine, but we'll stay underground with them for one more week. 

Central Florida -1.5 Cincinnati

This matchup lost a little luster when Central Florida was upset at East Carolina last weekend. Instead of a clash between two teams with undefeated conference records, Cincinnati has a chance to almost eliminate Central Florida from the conference race. While the Knights fell in Greenville last weekend, the margin was misleading. Central Florida scored just 13 points, but they averaged over six yards per play. They committed four turnovers (while forcing none) and also turned the ball over on downs once. The Knights may have been looking past the Pirates to this pivotal game with the Bearcats. I expect Cincinnati will have Central Florida's full attention this week. The Bearcats have won three straight in this series, including a dominating 56-21 victory in the Queen City last year. Cincinnati won in their last trip to Orlando, but that came in the pandemic season when crowd size was limited. With a full house, at the Bounce House, I think Central Florida gets back on track and makes the AAC race a little more interesting. 

New Mexico State -2 Massachusetts

On the surface, this seems like a pretty even matchup between two bad teams. The Aggies are 2-5 and the Minutemen are 1-6. With the 1-6 team having the homefield, it makes sense this spread is so tight. However, if you dig a little deeper into New Mexico State, you will see the Aggies have played better than you think. The Aggies have played seven games, with two coming against Big 10 teams. Minnesota and Wisconsin dominated the Aggies, outscoring them 104-7. However, in their five games against Group of Five competition, the Aggies, dare I say, have actually played well. They have outgained their five Group of Five opponents by more than a half a yard per play (5.13 to 4.54). Those five teams are not what you would classify as 'good' teams (Florida International, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, and UTEP), but then again, neither is Massachusetts. What about the Minutemen? If we strip out their performance against Power Five teams, how do they look? Well, not a lot changes, since they haven't faced a Power Five team (they get their shot to inflict even more angst in College State in a few weeks). Both these teams are led by coaching veterans (Jerry Kill and Don Brown), but only one appears to be heading in the right direction. You won't hear this said (or written) very often, but the Aggies should be favored by more. Take them at this cheap price. 

North Texas +10 Western Kentucky

Last week, one of the more impressive under the radar streaks in the Group of Five ended. Heading into their trip to the Alamodome, North Texas had won eight consecutive Conference USA games. The Mean Green even held the lead late against the Roadrunners, but UTSA scored in the final seconds to pull out the victory. I was skeptical of North Texas coming into the season, and they struggled in non-conference play, losing all three FBS games. However, North Texas played well enough to win two of those games (they were not competitive against SMU). Against UNLV and Memphis, the Mean Green outgained the Rebels and Tigers on a per play basis (6.36 to 6.03), but committed five turnovers while only forcing one. Two of those turnovers led directly to touchdowns with Memphis racking up two pick sixes in a ten point win. On paper, Western Kentucky has been the best team in Conference USA on a per play basis. In their four conference games, they outgained their opponents by nearly two yards per play (6.61 to 4.66). However, a lot of that surplus was gained in their domination of Florida International. If we remove that 73-0 drubbing, the Hilltoppers have a more modest differential (5.67 to 5.29). The Hilltoppers are still benefiting from that beatdown of the Panthers. Ten points is too many to lay against a competent team like North Texas. 

Missouri +3.5 South Carolina

South Carolina has won four in a row after a 1-2 start and is ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since the early portion of the 2018 season. While the wins are great, context is necessary. Half of those wins came against FCS or bad FBS teams (South Carolina State and Charlotte). The other two are legitimate wins, but Kentucky was starting their backup quarterback and Texas A&M outgained the Gamecocks in both yards and yards per play. The key to both victories was a fast start. Kentucky turned the ball over on their first series and South Carolina scored in the first minute of the game. South Carolina ran the opening kickoff back against Texas A&M and used some Aggie turnovers to lead 17-0 after barely five minutes of game time. The Wildcats and Aggies were able to get back in both games, but those early deficits let South Carolina play from a positive game state. The enigmatic Spencer Rattler (eight interceptions in 2022) didn't have to throw the ball a lot in a comeback effort. Can the Gamecocks get off to a similarly quick start against a Missouri team that has played nothing but close conference games? Their four conference games have been decided by a total of 17 points. That is the product of a good defense and bad offense. Georgia and Alabama are the only SEC teams with better per play defensive numbers than the Tigers in conference play. On the other side of the ball, Vanderbilt is the only SEC team with worse per play offensive numbers. With an offense as bad as Missouri's the big worry is that South Carolina's great special teams (three special teams touchdowns this year) or defense put Missouri in a multi-score hole they are unable to claw out of. While South Carolina is 4-2 under Shane Beamer in home SEC conference games, three of those victories have been point spread upsets. The only previous time South Carolina has been favored in an SEC game under Beamer was last year against Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks needed a last minute touchdown to win that game by a single point. I expect a defensive game played in the teens or low twenties, so I'll take the points with Missouri.   

UAB -4.5 Florida Atlantic

UAB is a disappointing 4-3 under interim coach Bryant Vincent. When Bill Clark unexpectedly retired due to health reasons over the summer, I thought the Blazers might fall off. However, while the Blazers have suffered three defeats, they have been actually played pretty well this season. In their losses against Liberty, Rice, and Western Kentucky, the Blazers have outgained their opponents by nearly a yard per play (5.98 to 5.14). Unfortunately, their turnover margin in those three games is -7. The Blazers have committed ten turnovers in those three games, including eight lost fumbles! In their most recent loss to Western Kentucky, the Blazers also lost their starting quarterback and his uncertain status is probably one of the reasons this line is so low. The backup quarterback did not play well last week (he also only attempted ten passes), but even with a limited passing attack, the Blazers still ran the ball efficiently (as they have all season). DeWayne McBride is 25 yards away from 1000 on the season and I expect him to hit that threshold in the first quarter (perhaps the first drive) against an iffy Florida Atlantic defense. Willie Taggart won five of his first six games as coach of the Owls in the pandemic shortened 2020 season. However, since beating Massachusetts by the odd score of 24-2, the Owls are just 6-15 against FBS opponents. The Blazers can win this game by a touchdown with their backup quarterback and if Dylan Hopkins plays, the Blazers will roll. 

Pittsburgh +3 North Carolina

One season after failing to meet lofty preseason expectations, North Carolina appears to be coasting toward a Coastal division title. The Tar Heels are currently the only team in the Coastal with a winning conference record and they are two games in the loss column ahead of everyone else. Even if they drop this game to the Panthers, Pitt would likely need to run the table to have a shot at snatching the division from them. Long term for this season, the Tar Heels are looking good, but for this game at least, I think the Panthers are a good play. Pitt scored ten points on the road against a bad Louisville defense last week, which is not a great look for the Panthers. However, before we go burying the Panthers, let's acknowledge one thing Louisville can do - generate negative plays. Louisville is fifth nationally in sacks per game and tenth in tackles for loss per game. They only sacked Pitt quarterback Kedon Slovis twice, but one led to a defensive touchdown and they accumulated six tackles for loss. North Carolina also has a bad defense, but they don't generate any pressure. The Tar Heels are 93rd nationally in sacks per game and 120th in tackles for loss per game. Their offense has been elite, averaging nearly 42 points per game, but against competent FBS offenses (those not named Virginia Tech), they are allowing over 38 points per game. Off their ACC Championship, Pitt has struggled with their personnel losses on offense, but Israel Abanikanda, who rushed for 320 yards three weeks ago, should be poised for another big game. I'll take the points with Pitt and see if they can tighten the Coastal race. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VIII

We were back to our regular 3-4 standard last week. The season is half over, so its time to make some progress on this record. Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 24-25

Eastern Michigan +2.5 Ball State

The past two weeks are a microcosm of what Eastern Michigan has become under Chris Creighton. Two weeks ago, the Eagles traveled to Kalamazoo to face Western Michigan as a small underdog. They crushed the Broncos. Last week, Eastern Michigan returned home to face Northern Illinois as a slight home favorite. They lost by four touchdowns. After two seasons bad seasons at the beginning of his tenure, Eastern Michigan has been competitive for seven years under Creighton (since 2016). In that span, the Eagles are a pathetic 3-10 ATS as a home favorite in MAC play with eight outright losses. However, as a road underdog against MAC opponents, they are 15-2 ATS with eight outright wins. I'm not sure if the betting market oscillates too far on their individual results or if the Eagles check out after big wins and check back in after unexpected losses, but this phenomenon seems to be real. I think it continues this week against a weak home favorite in Ball State. The Cardinals are just 5-10 ATS as a home favorite under Mike Neu and while they have won three in a row to get to 4-3 on the season, each win has come by less then a touchdown. Take the Eagles to pull another road upset. 

UCLA +6 Oregon

At 6-0 and ranked ninth in the latest edition of the AP Poll, UCLA has achieved their highest ranking since they rose to seventh in 2015. That season, after a 4-0 start, the Bruins split their final eight regular season games and following a bowl loss to Nebraska, finished 8-5. That marked the beginning of the end of the Jim Mora era in Los Angeles. The Bruins went 4-8 in 2016 and after a 5-6 start in 2017, Mora was canned and in 2018, the Chip Kelly era began. It took Kelly awhile to get the Bruins on the right track, but since the start of last season, they are 14-4 (9-3 in Pac-12 play) and humming on offense. Both the Ducks and Bruins are averaging north of seven yards per play in Pac-12 action (top two offenses), so yards should not be hard to come by. The over/under currently sits at 71, and while both these teams are certainly capable of getting to 35 apiece, that seems a little ambitious. While both teams have scored at least 40 in each of their conference games, I think the early part of this game will be like a heavyweight fight with both teams feeling each other out with jabs and counters. While Oregon has faced the more challenging schedule overall (remember their opener?), I think UCLA has been tested more in Pac-12 play (having vanquished both Washington and Utah). The teams are pretty evenly matched, so I like the fact the Bruins are catching nearly a touchdown. Kelly is 0-3 against his old team since returning to the college ranks, but the past two games in this series have both been decided by three points. I expect another close one on Saturday. 

Memphis +7 Tulane

Memphis could easily be 6-1 and on a six-game heater heading into this clash in New Orleans. Unfortunately, the Tigers blew a late double digit lead at home to Houston and then lost a toss up in overtime to East Carolina. Had a bounce here or there gone their way in either or both of those games, would Tulane be laying a touchdown? I doubt it. Consequently, I think you are getting some value on the Tigers. Tulane's defense is also probably a little overvalued. The Green Wave held East Carolina to nine points two weeks ago and the Pirates scored 30 points against Memphis in regulation last week. However, against Tulane, the Pirates missed a field goal, threw two interceptions, and were stopped on downs twice in Tulane territory. Meanwhile, against Memphis, the Pirates returned an interception for a touchdown and did not commit a single turnover. On a neutral field, I think this would be a pick 'em or Tulane would be a small favorite. The Tigers are getting too many points and I think Tulane may be reading their own press clippings. The Green Wave are ranked in the latest edition of the AP Poll. This is their first ranking since 1998! I think they suffer a bit of a letdown in a tight game.  

Wisconsin -2.5 Purdue

One of these teams is 3-1 in Big 10 play and tied for first place in their division. The other is 1-3 in the Big 10 and tied for last place. And of course, the team in last place is favored over the team in first. Gambling makes perfect sense! This is not a vintage Wisconsin team, but I like them in this spot for a few reasons. For starters, they have dominated this series. The Badgers have beaten Purdue fifteen consecutive times, with the last Purdue win coming in 2003. Twelve of those fifteen victories have come by double digits. Plus, if you look at yards per play numbers, Wisconsin has fared better than Purdue in Big 10 play. Both teams are being outgained on per play basis (Wisconsin by .49 yards per play and Purdue by .92). And that includes Wisconsin's loss to Ohio State. If we remove that game from their ledger, the Badgers are actually above water (+.17 yards per play) in the Big 10. I know arbitrarily removing games may not be the best way to handicap football teams, but Ohio State is clearly a cut above the rest of the Big 10 (except for maybe Michigan) this season. Purdue has won all their Big 10 games by one score and they have been getting torched by opposing passers (Big 10 quarterbacks have averaged 8.7 yards per pass against their secondary). Graham Mertz may finally deliver on his hype this weekend. Take Wisconsin to cover this small number. 

UTEP +3.5 Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic has won two road games since Willie Taggart became head coach in 2020. They beat winless Florida International in 2020 and Charlotte in 2021. Charlotte finished with a respectable 5-7 record last season, but their defense was among the worst in FBS. This season, the Owls have already dropped two games as a road favorite, allowing over 40 points to both Ohio and North Texas. They edged Rice last week in the 'Owl Bowl', but averaged under four yards per play and scored 17 points at home. UTEP is off a bye and is playing at home where they have been dangerous over the past few seasons. The Miners put up back-to-back 1-11 records in Dana Dimel's first two season in El Paso (2018 and 2019). In those two seasons, they were just 2-7 ATS as a home underdog with zero outright wins. However, since the start of 2020, they are 4-2 ATS as a home underdog with three outright wins. I think they make it four this weekend. 

Boise State +2.5 Air Force

A few weeks ago, it appeared Boise's run of Mountain West domination was over (I know the Broncos didn't even win their division, much less the conference last season, but Boise is the most well known Mountain West program and they have four titles since joining the league in 2011). The Broncos were 2-2 with non-competitive road losses to Oregon State and UTEP. The Broncos had scored six touchdowns in their first three games against FBS opponents and looked anemic on offense. Following the UTEP loss, they fired their offensive coordinator and installed former head coach Dirk Koetter as the interim OC. Koetter put a renewed emphasis on the running game and the Broncos rolled up over 600 yards on the ground in their next two games at over six and half yards per clip. Now Boise is 3-0 in the Mountain West and a game clear of Wyoming and Utah State in the division. Meanwhile, Air Force, a team with plausible designs on an unbeaten season, is 2-2 in league play and their division odds are nearly dead. The Falcons have been a disappointment thanks to their poor rush defense. Their four Mountain West opponents have rushed for 138 yards per game and averaged nearly five yards per carry against the Falcons defense. That includes their most recent showing against UNLV and their backup quarterback. Take that game away, and their other three opponents have rushed for 164 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry! Air Force upset Boise on the Smurf Turf last season, but the Broncos have won the past two games in Colorado Springs and this marks the first time the Falcons have been favored against the Broncos. I think Boise has turned things around and will be able to handle a flawed conference opponent on the road. 

Utah State +4.5 Wyoming

He fooled us y'all. Despite his track record at Arkansas State, we panicked when Utah State struggled in the non-conference this season. Blake Anderson coached Arkansas State for seven seasons (2014-2020) and in that time, his regular season non-conference record was 11-15 (he even lost to an FCS team). Despite the routine rough starts, his teams went 38-18 once conference play started (36-12 his first six seasons). Last season, his first at Utah State, the Aggies went 3-1 in the non-conference and then rolled to a surprise conference title. This season, the Aggies struggled with Connecticut, got blown out by Alabama, and then lost at home to an FCS team (in blowout fashion). Two more losses followed as the Aggies dropped their conference opener to UNLV and then a rivalry game to BYU. However, the Aggies regrouped and have won two in a row over Air Force and Colorado State to move to 2-1 in Mountain West play. Now the Aggies have a chance to win their third in a row and even their overall record as they travel to Laramie to face Wyoming in Bridger's Battle. Wyoming has struggled to score for most of Craig Bohl's tenure when a certain NFL quarterback was not taking snaps for the Cowboys. In 2016 and 2017, when Josh Allen was the starting quarterback, Wyoming averaged nearly 30 points per game (29.9). in Bohl's other seven seasons in charge, the Cowboys have averaged almost exactly a touchdown less per game (22.8). Its hard to cover when you struggle to score. Take Utah State and points. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

With some good picks and a little luck, we finally posted another winning week. This moves our overall record back to .500. Hopefully more good fortune is in store. Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 21-21

Coastal Carolina -11 Old Dominion

Last week, in my write up of the Coastal/Louisiana-Monroe game, I mentioned Coastal is on a low-key incredible run of being favored in every game since their upset of BYU late in the 2020 season. I also noted the Chanticleers had not adapted to the role of favorite. Updating their ATS tally based on last week's results, Coastal drops to 7-12 ATS as a favorite since the streak began and 5-10 ATS as a double digit favorite. So naturally, they are the play this week. Unlike their previous large spreads, I think this one is actually warranted. Old Dominion has put up a good fight against their Power Five in-state opponents this season, beating Virginia Tech at home and narrowly losing to Virginia on the road. However, the Hokies and the Cavaliers significantly outplayed the Monarchs on a down to down basis, outgaining them by more than a yard per play (5.39 to 4.18). The games were close thanks to turnovers. The Monarchs forced eight in those two games while committing only three of their own. Those two close games are allowing you to buy Coastal at a bit of a discount. Barring an injury to Grayson McCall, Coastal is almost guaranteed to score north of 30 points in this game. The Chanticleers are averaging nearly 39 points per game at home since McCall became the starting quarterback at the beginning on the 2020 season. By contrast, Old Dominion has had a difficult time scoring points this season. The Monarchs are averaging just north of five yards per play and just under 22 points per game and have not faced an imposing set of defenses. I think this is the proverbial 'get right' game for Coastal as the Chanticleers improve to 7-0 and potentially break into the AP Poll for the third consecutive season.

Louisiana Tech +7 North Texas

Louisiana Tech and North Texas both put up 1-3 record in the non-conference, so this game is vital to their bowl hopes. At 2-3, a victory would even Louisiana Tech's record halfway through their first season under Sonny Cumbie and mean a split over their final six would get them to the postseason. North Texas is already 3-3, having played and won a conference game in Week Zero, but a loss here will likely keep them home for the holidays as they have road contests remaining with the three top teams in the conference (UAB, UTSA, and Western Kentucky). While the teams put up matching 1-3 marks in non-conference play, Louisiana Tech played the tougher schedule. Both squads knocked off their FCS opponent, but Louisiana Tech faced two Power Five teams on the road (Clemson and Missouri) as well as one of the better Sun Belt teams (South Alabama). Meanwhile, North Texas did not face a single Power Five team, losing to Memphis, SMU, and UNLV, with the in-state battle with the Mustangs coming at home. North Texas was a home underdog to a bad Florida Atlantic team two weeks ago. Now suddenly, we should trust them laying a full touchdown in a conference game? With that defense? These teams have played every year since joining Conference USA in 2013 and Louisiana Tech has won seven of the nine meetings, including all four in Denton (twice as an underdog). Since qualifying for the 2017 Conference USA Championship Game (and getting waxed by Florida Atlantic), North Texas has been a conference favorite of at least a touchdown eleven times. They are 4-11 ATS in those games. Take the Bulldogs to keep this one close.    

Southern Miss -4 Arkansas State

The season is almost halfway over, but the rest of it should be a breeze for Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have faced a low-key challenging schedule so far. Their five FBS opponents are a combined 16-7 with the Miami Hurricanes posting the worst record at 2-3. Southern Miss looked horrendous on offense in their last game as Troy limited them 205 total yards and under 3.5 yards per play. However, the Trojans have the best defense in the Sun Belt and one of the best defenses in the G5, especially at home. In their two Sun Belt home games, the Trojans have made two competent offenses (Marshall and Southern Miss) look like bad FCS teams, holding them to 17 total points and an absurd 2.9 yards per play. The going should get a little easier as the Golden Eagles return to Hattiesburg to face Arkansas State in a rematch of the 2005 New Orleans Bowl. The Red Wolves are better than they were last season, but that is not a high bar to clear. While they have already matched last year's Sun Belt win total (1), they have been outgained on a per play basis in all three games (aggregate total of nearly a yard and a half per play) and are 1-4 straight up in Sun Belt road games under Butch Jones. This spread implies Southern Miss would be favored by about a point at a neutral site. I think that undersells Southern Miss by about a field goal. I'm always a little hesitant in laying more than three, but I think Southern Miss wins this game by at least a touchdown. 

Nebraska +14 Purdue

Believe it or not, this is for a share of first place in the Big 10 West. After opening conference play with embarrassing and heartbreaking losses respectively, the Cornhuskers and Boilermakers have both won two conference games in a row to move into a first place tie with Illinois. A loss by Nebraska practically eliminates them from division title contention as they will likely be underdogs in their next five games. Purdue has a more navigable schedule, particularly the closing stretch with Northwestern and Indiana, so a loss will not necessarily preclude them from playing in their first ever conference title game. Purdue has won back to back road games as an underdog, an area where they have excelled under Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers are 20-10 ATS as an regular season underdog under Brohm with 13 outright wins. Meanwhile, they are 12-16 ATS as a regular season favorite with 12 outright losses! Purdue's consecutive road wins as an underdog have shifted the market too much. Nebraska is not as good as I thought they would be in the preseason, but they are good enough to keep this within two touchdowns. 

Utah -3.5 Southern Cal

It took some time for Utah to adjust to the rigors of a Pac-12 schedule. In their first seven seasons of Pac-12 play, the Utes actually posted a losing conference record in Salt Lake City (15-17)! However, since the start of the 2018 season (when they played in their first of three Pac-12 Championship Games), the Utes are 16-2 at home. One of those losses did come to Southern Cal in the pandemic shortened 2020 season, but in 'normal' regular seasons, the Utes are 14-1 at home in Pac-12 play since 2018. They have also won and covered all three meetings with the Trojans in Salt Lake City when they entered favored as they are in this game. Give credit to Southern Cal for starting the season 6-0, but this is by far their most significant road test. I think this spread tells you everything you need to know about the game. Southern Cal is unbeaten and ranked in the top ten, while Utah has two losses and is coming off a humbling defensive effort at UCLA. Yet the Utes are favored. I'll take Utah, even laying the hook to end Southern Cal's unbeaten run and make the Pac-12 race a little more interesting. 

Duke +7 North Carolina

After a brief absence, the ACC Wheel of Destiny has returned with a vengeance to the Coastal Division. North Carolina is all alone in first place with a half game lead over (checks notes) Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils lost to said Yellow Jackets last week, but can move into a first place tie by beating the Tar Heels on Saturday night. While the past two games in the series may have given you the impression that North Carolina has dominated it (wins by 32 and 31 points respectively), Duke covered in Chapel Hill (losing in overtime) three years ago and won in Durham in 2018. While North Carolina has moved the ball and scored seemingly at will since Mack Brown returned in 2019 (over 37 points per game), they have blown their fair share of games as a road favorite. The Tar Heels are 3-6-1 ATS as a road favorite in Brown's second stint, losing outright to four mediocre to bad teams in 2020 (Florida State and Virginia) and 2021 (Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech). Heck, a month ago, these same Tar Heels were laying an identical number at Georgia State. North Carolina is going to score, but no lead is safe with their defense. The Tar Heels have won all three of their road games this season, but no victory has come by more than a touchdown. I expect a similar result here. Take Duke and the points. 

New Mexico State +6.5 New Mexico

On a weekend that features three matchups of unbeaten Power 5 teams taking place in the early and late afternoon window, this might be a good palette cleanser in the evening. Assuming of course you can find the game. It is being aired by something called Flo Sports, so check you local listings. While the two teams from the Land of Enchantment are a combined 3-9 in 2022, this is a legitimate rivalry, with the first contest taking place before New Mexico even became a state! To better compare these two teams, I think we should toss out their results against Power Five and FCS teams. Being ground into dust by Minnesota and Wisconsin doesn't really give us an idea about how New Mexico State will fare against a team in their own weight class. Similarly, New Mexico's visit to Baton Rouge and their opener against Maine tell us very little about the Lobos. Once we remove those games, and look at the per play data for both teams, its easy to make a case for the Aggies from Las Cruces. New Mexico State has faced four G5 teams and while they are 1-3 in those games, they have actually outgained their opponents on a per play basis (5.21 to 4.73). In those four games, the Aggies have been done in by turnovers (-7 margin). Meanwhile, New Mexico is also 1-3 in their four games against G5 opponents, but the Lobos have been outgained by more than a full yard per play (4.12 to 5.18). The Lobos have fared better in the turnover department (+3), with most of that work coming against UTEP when they forced the Miners to cough the ball up seven times. I should note New Mexico has faced a more challenging foursome of opponents (Boise State, UNLV, UTEP, and Wyoming) as compared to New Mexico State (Florida International, Hawaii, Nevada, and UTEP), but I don't understand how the Lobos can be laying nearly a full touchdown on the road. Danny Gonzales is in his third season as head coach of the Lobos and after a decent showing in the abbreviated 2020 campaign where they averaged nearly 24 points per game, the offense has disappeared. The offense averaged just over 12 points per game last season and is currently averaging a shade over 19 this season (15 per game against FBS opponents). You can't lay a lot points, especially on the road, with an offense like that. I know New Mexico State looked like trash in their most recent outing, losing at home to FIU, but off a bye and playing at home, they are the play in this dumpster dive.  

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

Another week, another 3-4 record. Things have to turn around soon right? Home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 16-19 

Buffalo -2 Bowling Green

After an 0-3 start to the season that included a home loss to an FCS team, Buffalo has quietly won two in a row to get in position to contend for the MAC East crown. Last week's victory against Miami of Ohio required a fourth quarter comeback with Cole Snyder tossing the winning touchdown in the final minute. Buffalo was fortunate to catch Miami as they are without the services of Brett Gabbert. His backup, Aveon Smith, made some big plays on the ground, but was confounded by the forward pass and the Bulls beat what is likely the division's top team when healthy. Meanwhile, Bowling Green won their MAC opener last week. It marked the first time the Falcons opened conference play 1-0 since 2015, which is also their last winning season and last time they won the conference. Even in a conference as full of parity as the MAC, I would still pump the brakes on the conference title dreams. Akron is probably the worst team in the conference and while the Falcons did beat Marshall at home earlier in the year, the Thundering Herd outgained them by nearly 200 yards. And they also lost at home to an FCS team. After posting a quietly competent defense last season, Bowling Green is allowing over six and a half yards per play to FBS opponents this year. The Falcons do generate a lot of havoc, accumulating 20 sacks on the season, but every opponent except Akron has scored more than 30 points against them (and the Zips scored 28). Buffalo has not played like the 1985 Bears on defense either, allowing over seven yards per play to FBS opponents. However, their slate of opposing offenses has been a shade tougher and they won their games without the benefit of a fantastic turnover margin. Through five games, the Bulls are +1 in turnovers and in their two victories, they are even with two turnovers forced and committed. Meanwhile, through five games, the Falcons are +6 in turnovers and that good fortune has come almost entirely in their two victories where they are +5 (in games they won by a combined six points). Bowling Green is being propped up by an unsustainable turnover margin and you are getting the Bulls at a discount. Look for Buffalo to move to 3-0 in MAC play with relatively easy win. 

Missouri +11 Florida

Is it time to entertain the notion, no matter how far-fetched, that Missouri has a pretty good defense. Consider the following: They held Georgia to 26 points, the Bulldogs lowest point total in a regular season game since the 2021 season opener against Clemson. They held Auburn to 217 total yards at 3.3 yards per play the week prior. While they allowed 40 points to Kansas State in an embarrassing loss earlier in the season, their former Big 8 and Big 12 rival returned a punt for a touchdown and forced four Missouri turnovers allowing them to start three second half drives in Missouri territory. In three games against Power Five opponents, the Tigers are allowing 345 yards per game and 4.95 yards per play. The question here is, can they get off the mat after leading Georgia for the majority of last week's game before giving up the lead in the fourth quarter? There are certainly instances where a team struggles after leaving it all on the field against a highly ranked opponent (see Oregon State). However, unlike the Beavers, who succumbed to Southern Cal late in Corvallis and then were routed by Utah, Missouri was not unbeaten with designs on a conference title. The Tigers had already lost twice (once in conference play) and were already coming off a gut-wrenching loss. Florida looked great in a delayed home win against Eastern Washington where they posted an unholy 666 yards of total offense and scored 52 points. While the Eagles are an historically strong FCS program, they have allowed over 47 points per game this season. Florida's offense will encounter a lot more resistance this weekend and I expect Missouri to keep this one close as they typically have in their visits to Gainesville since joining the SEC. Missouri is 2-3 straight up against the Gators in Gainesvile, but 3-2 ATS. Their ATS losses both came in years that Florida won the SEC East (2016 and 2020). This Florida team is not at that level. Take Missouri to keep this one close. 

UCLA +3.5 Utah

There are four Pac-12 teams that are unbeaten in conference play and two of them square off in Pasadena on Saturday afternoon. UCLA has had a very advantageous schedule through the first part of 2022, playing four of their first five at home (plus this one) with the lone road trip coming against woeful Colorado. UCLA has played well against that home friendly schedule, scoring at least 32 points in each game and topping 40 points four times. I feel like the Bruins threw the betting market off their scent a few weeks ago when they nearly lost at home to South Alabama. The Jaguars have proven to be a solid G5 team, but I think the market is still punishing them. Case in point, they were a slight home underdog against a Washington that dominated a relatively soft early schedule. Washington was playing their first road game of the year and while the final margin was somewhat close, the Bruins controlled the game from the middle of the first quarter and were never in danger of losing. Can they continue their ascent under Chip Kelly against the defending Pac-12 champs (and preseason favorite)? Utah opened their season with a road loss against a Florida team the jury is still very much out on. They rebounded from that loss with easy victories against FCS and G5 opponents before catching Arizona State fresh off firing their coach and Oregon State off a heartbreaking loss. The Utes dominated Oregon State on the scoreboard last week, but the play by play stats were much closer. Utah took advantage of four Oregon State interceptions to run away from the Beavers in the second half. After forcing one turnover in their opening loss to Florida, the Utes have forced eleven over their past four games (+8 margin). If the Utes finish with an average turnover margin of +2 per game over the rest of the regular season, they should run the table. However, turnovers are often a fickle mistress, so the Utes are probably a little overvalued in the betting market. Personally, I think this game should be closer to a pick 'em. UCLA is 7-5 ATS as a home underdog under Chip Kelly, but if you look at the chronology of that record, you can see improvement. In Kelly's first two seasons, the Bruins were 3-4 ATS as a home underdog with two outright wins. Since the start of 2020, the Bruins are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog and in all four of their covers, they have won the game outright. And their lone loss was a devastating bad beat. I think Dorian Thompson-Robinson can tax Utah's defense much like Anthony Richardson did in the opener. Take the Bruins and the points. 

Duke -3.5 Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech began the post-Geoff Collins era with a victory as a massive underdog at Pitt last weekend. While it was a great victory for morale at Georgia Tech and made you feel good for alum and interim coach Brent Key, it was par for the course for Pitt. Since Narduzzi arrived in the Steel City in 2015, the Panthers have lost at home as a favorite of a touchdown or more six times, including five times since the beginning of 2019. Even when they were busy winning the ACC last year, they dropped two homes games, when a victory in either may have earned them a playoff bid. Plus, Georgia Tech's formula for victory is unlikely to be sustainable. The Yellow Jackets barely threw for 100 yards (102 to be exact). And if you were wondering, no, they did not revert to the triple option. They put the ball in the air 27 times and netted 102 yards (75 once we account for the four sacks that are inexplicably attributed to rushing yards in college football). Georgia Tech capitalized on three Pitt turnovers (plus a failed fourth down conversion) and still almost delivered a master class in blowing the game. From running out of bounds late in the fourth quarter to lackadaisical tackling with a double digit lead, the Yellow Jackets were fortunate to get the win even with all the help from the Panthers. I will say, it appears Georgia Tech emphasized special teams without Collins on the sideline as they made four field goals and did not have a single kick blocked in what seems like decades. Now the Yellow Jackets return home somehow just a half game out of first in the ACC Coastal. Those dreams will almost certainly be crushed by supper time on Saturday, but a nerdy engineer can dream of a rematch with Clemson for a few days at least. I will caution you that Duke has won two conference road games since the beginning of 2019 (Virginia Tech and Syracuse are the proud victims), but they appear to be quite improved under new coach Mike Elko. Plus the Blue Devils have already played two road games, beating Northwestern and hanging with unbeaten Kansas. This spread implies this game would be around a pick 'em on a neutral field. I don't buy that. The victory last week was nice, but Georgia Tech is still bad. Perhaps ACC bad, and not worst in the Power Five bad, but bad nonetheless. Take the Blue Devils to cover this small number. 

Iowa State +2 Kansas State

If he drops this game, it might be time to start a dialogue about Matt Campbell. The former hot young coach has struggled over the past season and a half, with the Cyclones posting a 10-8 record since the start of 2021. Normally, any record over .500 would be cause for celebration in Ames, but Campbell has raised expectations. Of those eight losses since the beginning of last season, six have come as a betting favorite, including both this season. The past two weeks, losses at home to Baylor and at Kansas, have featured penalties (the Cyclones committed eight for 78 yards against Baylor, several of which extended scoring drives), turnovers (two in each game and a combined margin of -3), and missed kicks (three missed field goals in the three point loss to Kansas). Even with those mistakes, the Cyclones lost both games by seven and three points respectively. Now, returning home, this looks like a good spot to sell Kansas State. The Wildcats are 3-0 against the three Power Five opponents they have faced (Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech), but they also have a +6 combined turnover margin in those games. I mentioned that Iowa State has struggled with turnovers in their two losses, but turnover margin, while having a dramatic impact on the outcome of a game, is not predictive going forward. Iowa State is 3-3 under Matt Campbell against Kansas State, but has won three of the last four, with their two most recent wins coming by double digits. Iowa State famously sent The Legend out a loser in his final game and I think the wrong team is favored in this spot. The Big 12 is deep and while that will likely prevent it from placing a team in the College Football Playoff, it should make for a very entertaining conference race. Take the Cyclones to pull the small upset in this edition of Farmageddon. 

Illinois -3.5 Iowa

Am I putting too much stock in what I last saw, or is it time to anoint Illinois as a contender in the Big 10 West? As of this writing, every team in the Big 10 West is 1-1 (except Wisconsin) and you could convince me any of five teams could be Ohio State's sacrificial lamb in the Big 10 Championship Game (Nebraska and Northwestern are the only two I can't see winning the division). While Iowa has the better defensive reputation in this game, I think its fair to say Illinois has performed better this season. The Illini have allowed under four yards per play in the early going and have held their last two Power Five opponents (Virginia and Wisconsin) to a combined 13 points. Iowa showed some signs of life in the second half of their loss to Michigan (scoring 14 points against the Wolverines), but this offense is bad until further notice. And offensively, Illinois has been far superior this season, with Chase Brown racking up 733 rushing yards at over six yards per carry. The Illini have not beaten Iowa since 2008 (lost last eight), but that was also the last time they were favored. I think the Illini win by about a touchdown and set up a huge divisional game next week when they host Minnesota. 

Louisiana-Monroe +13.5 Coastal Carolina

Guess how many times Coastal Carolina has been an underdog since the start of 2021? Zero. The Chanticleers, along with Ohio State, were the only teams to be favored in every game they played last season. Oddsmakers have yet to install them as underdogs in 2022 either. Coastal has not been an underdog since BYU made their infamous cross-country pilgrimage to Conway in 2020. However, despite being the darlings of oddsmakers, Coastal has not been a great bet as a favorite in that span. Against FBS opponents, the Chanticleers are 7-11 ATS (4-5 at home, 3-4 on the road, and 0-2 in neutral site games). They have been double digit favorites 14 times in that span, and are 5-9 ATS (4-5 at home, 2-3 on the road, and 0-1 in neutral site games). Their run as a favorite is likely to last two more games (this spot and home versus Old Dominion next week) and end on a pre-Halloween trip to Marshall. Of course, if the Thundering Herd look like they have the past few weeks, the streak could continue. But I digress. While the Chanticleers are unbeaten, they have struggled defensively, allowing every opponent to score at least 24 points against them. Quarterback Grayson McCall has been able to make up for those defensive deficiencies by averaging ten yards per pass. Despite McCall's greatness, Coastal is an option adjacent offense that loves to run the ball. And Louisiana-Monroe should be able to corral their running game. The Warhawks are allowing under four yards per carry on the season and that includes games against Texas and Alabama. Their two Sun Belt opponents have both averaged under three yards per carry and the Warhawks accumulated twenty tackles for loss in those two games. Louisiana-Monroe will be able to get into the backfield on some early down runs and force Coastal into third and longs. McCall will no doubt convert some (perhaps a lot) of them, but Louisiana-Monroe will hold Coastal to around their scoring average (36 points per game) and be able to move the ball well enough against Coastal's weak defense to generate at least 24 points of their own. They don't have the goods to win outright, but nearly two touchdowns is too many.