The Magnificent Seven: Week IX

Two winning weeks in a row. Let's try for three. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 27-27-2

Iowa State -3.5 Texas Tech
With the other wild results in Week Seven, Iowa State's dominating win over West Virginia was sort of lost in the shuffle. The victory was their second in a row and evened their overall record at 3-3. With three of their five remaining conference games coming at home and another a road trip to Kansas, Iowa State still has a shot at getting to the Big 12 Championship Game. It's a long shot, but more realistic than winning the Mega Millions jackpot. It's a small sample, but in their two games against Texas Tech under Matt Campbell, the Cyclones have beaten the Red Raiders by a cumulative margin of 97-23. Those are Alabama-type numbers. Revenge could certainly be a factor for Texas Tech, and were Iowa State not off a bye, they could be hung over from their huge upset of West Virginia. As it stands though, Iowa State is one of the most well-coached team's in the nation. Consider it a gift when they are laying less than a touchdown at home. Take the Cyclones to win, and win rather easily here.

North Carolina +9 Virginia
Yes, America, go ahead and start preparing yourselves for a potential appearance by Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers have not necessarily looked great doing it, but they are 3-1 in the conference with a head to head win over Miami. Their division title hopes may well come down to their season ending trip to Blacksburg. But first, the Cavaliers must deal with a North Carolina team looking to play the role of spoiler in The South's Oldest Rivalry. Thanks to their poor performance early in the year due in part to suspensions and their nationally televised bloodletting at Miami, North Carolina is under-valued by the public. The Tar Heels are 1-5 and likely to finish without a postseason bid for the second consecutive season. However, in ACC action, the Tar Heels have arguably played about as well as Virginia at least in terms of yards per play. Both teams are a little under water in Net YPP, but while North Carolina is 1-3 and out of the contention in the division, Virginia is 3-1. We can thank the usual suspects of turnover margin (North Carolina is -4 in ACC play while Virginia is +2) and close game performance (North Carolina is 1-2 while Virginia is 1-0). Obviously, that hay is already in the barn, but prospecting forward, I would be hesitant to lay a lot of points with Virginia. Not only do the Cavaliers rank near the bottom of the conference in yards per play, they also play at a plodding pace. Last week, North Carolina was an underdog of a similar margin against Syracuse. The Orange play at a blistering pace, with that game featuring seventeen possessions apiece in regulation. By contrast, this game will probably only have eleven or twelve, so each trip down the field will be exponentially more valuable. As Virginia basketball fans know, playing with a slow pace is an advantage against more talented teams, but when the roles are reversed, that slow pace can allow the underdog to hang around. Assuming North Carolina has not quit on the season, this should be a four quarter game. Take the Tar Heels to keep this one close.

Georgia State +3.5 Coastal Carolina
These two FBS noobs face off for the second time ever with Coastal Carolina looking to avenge last season's loss and move one step closer to bowl eligibility in just their second season of big time football. The Chanticleers have already exceeded last season's win total (3) with another month to play. Meanwhile, off their first bowl win in school history, Georgia State has struggled. The Panthers narrowly edged an FCS team in their first game and have allowed nearly 40 points per game to their six FBS opponents. If you are looking for points you may want to check this one out on ESPN+. While Georgia State has been atrocious on defense, if we limit our view to Sun Belt action only, the Chanticleers have actually been worse, permitting their three Sun Belt opponents to average nearly eight and half yards per play! Coastal does not have the type of defense you want to be laying points on the road with. In fact, they been a road favorite just one other time in their short FBS history. They lost. Don't be surprised if the same thing happens here as Georgia State has already pulled an outright home upset earlier this season. Curiously, the team they trounced as about a six point underdog, beat Coastal by nearly four touchdowns in Conway. I wouldn't recommend betting exclusively using the transitive property, but it does make this spread all the more interesting.

Texas A&M +3 Mississippi State
After playing a soft non-conference schedule and climbing into the top-15 of the AP Poll, conference play has not been kind to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have lost three of their first four league games while scoring just three offensive touchdowns and averaging just 4.27 yards per play. In SEC play, the Bulldogs have had no passing attack to speak of as Nick Fitzgerald has completed just 44% of his passes while averaging under four yards per throw. In non-conference action, the offense was able to dominate on the ground, but once the competition stiffened, the limitations of Fitzgerald have been magnified. Despite being just one game better overall, the general mood of the program is much better in College Station. That's primarily because the Aggies two losses have come to arguably the two best teams in college football. The Aggies nearly upset Clemson at home and were marginally competitive in covering the spread against the Alabama juggernaut in Tuscaloosa. I think the wrong team is favored here. Mississippi State is so limited on offense, it has been very difficult for them to score against the better defenses on the schedule. Take the Aggies to win outright in a defensive struggle.

Air Force +10 Boise State
I picked against Boise State last week, and while that didn't work out, I'm going to fade them again as this does not appear to be your vintage Bronco team. Through four conference games, the Broncos are still under water in terms of yards per play, meaning they have allowed more yards per play than they have gained. Even in their blowout victory over Colorado State, the formerly stout Bronco defense allowed over seven yards per play to the Rams. Meanwhile, Air Force has started to figure things out on both sides of the ball of late, winning two of three after a 1-3 start. The Falcons need to win three of their final five to qualify for a bowl, so they should be motivated even though they have Army on deck. The Falcons have actually beaten the Broncos the last two times they have faced them at home and three of the last four overall. Air Force has been tough as a home dog, going 6-1 ATS in the role since 2014. In fact, they have won outright in their six covers! Look for more of the same this week with the Falcons giving the Broncos all they can handle.

Tulane +3 Tulsa
Two months into the 2018 season, these two AAC teams have combined for three wins, with just one coming against an FBS opponent. A bowl game is still theoretically on the table for both, with Tulsa needing to win out and Tulane needing to win four of their last five to qualify. More than likely though, 2018 will end in disappointment for both these squads. Tulane at least has the excuse that they have not been very good in the recent past and are still adjusting to Willie Fritz's option scheme. Meanwhile Tulsa won ten games just two seasons ago. Since pummeling Central Michigan 55-10 in the Miami Beach Bowl, the Golden Hurricane are just 3-16 and their once potent offense (averaged 39.8 points per game in their first two seasons under head coach Philip Montgomery) has disappeared. Tulsa is averaging just under 21 points per game in 2018 and have not scored more than 26 points against any FBS opponent. In a bid to give the offense a spark, Montgomery inserted the aptly named freshman quarterback Seth Boomer into the starting lineup. While Tulsa nearly upset South Florida with Boomer taking snaps, his passing numbers have been among the worst in the nation. In three games as a starter, Boomer has completed just 35% of his passes. As a useful comparison, on the team level, Navy has the lowest completion percentage in the nation at 44%. Boomer is basically playing worse than a triple option quarterback without the big play passing and efficient rushing potential. Tulane is not a good team by any stretch, but Tulsa's offense is very bad, and you don't want to be laying points with a quarterback that struggles to complete a third of his passes. I understand why Tulsa is favored. Were the line reversed, I'd advise you to stay away, but I think Tulane can cover this small number and potentially win outright.

Florida International -3.5 Western Kentucky
Maybe the game hasn't passed Butch Davis by. After guiding the Panthers to their third ever bowl game in 2017, I expected some regression in their second season under Davis. The preseason consensus had the Panthers in the middle of the pack in Conference USA, well behind their in-state rivals, as well as Marshall and Middle Tennessee. But, nearly two months into the season, the Panthers only losses are to Power Five teams (Indiana and Miami). They are unbeaten in conference play and should be the odds on favorite to represent the east division in the conference championship game as both Florida Atlantic and Marshall must come to them later in the year. That game against the Owls is next week, so they certainly could be looking past the Hilltoppers. Even then though, it may not matter. Western Kentucky is not good, and they just suffered one of the most amazing losses in college football history last week. They finally scored more than 30 points for the first time all season against a woeful Old Dominion defense, but at 1-6, they may have packed it in. I don't like the hook, but I think Florida International should win this by at least a touchdown.

The Magnificent Seven: Week VIII

We whiffed on a few picks (thanks Arizona and Georgia Tech), but somehow we ended up with a winning week. Let's make it two in a row. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 23-24-2

Colorado State +24 Boise State
Three weeks ago, this was beginning to look like a lost season for Colorado State. The Rams were 1-4 and had just lost at home by sixteen points to an FCS team. But they bye week came at a perfect time and the Rams are currently riding a two-game winning streak. However, after the poor start, there is almost no margin for error if they have designs on qualifying for a sixth straight bowl game, but 2-10 seemed like a legitimate possibility when October began. The Rams have two almost certain defeats left on the schedule (this game and a home date with Utah State), so they need to sweep the other three which include a home game against Wyoming and road trips to Nevada and Air Force. The odds are against them, but if nothing else, this slight downturn should ensure they can hang onto Mike Bobo for another season or two. Under Bobo's guidance, the Rams have consistently boasted above-average offenses. His first three teams ranked seventh, first, and first in the Mountain West in yards per play and the current iteration ranks second. Quarterback KJ Carta-Samuels, a transfer from Washington, leads the explosive passing attack. Of course, even with the offensive success, Colorado State has four losses for a reason and that is obviously thanks to the leaky defense. Opponents are averaging nearly seven yards per play against the Rams, but they have played better since the bye, holding both San Jose State and New Mexico below six yards per play. The Rams will attempt to slow down a Boise State team that has disappointed since an explosive 2-0 start. The Broncos looked for all the world like they would be the G5 representative in the New Year's Six after beating Troy and Connecticut by a combined 118-27 margin. Since then, Troy has been decent (loss to Liberty notwithstanding), but Connecticut has proven to have one of the worst defenses in college football history. Plus, the Broncos have lost two games, including one to an Oklahoma State team that has dropped three of four and another to a solid, but unspectacular San Diego State team. They have also beaten Wyoming and Nevada by less than impressive margins. Add it all up, and this line seems to be about a touchdown too high. Boise has been downright bad as a home favorite under Bryan Harsin, posting an 8-19 ATS record in the role, including a 5-18 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite. Call it a Smurf Turf Tax or general ignorance on the part of the betting public, but Boise State has been criminally over-valued at home since Chris Petersen left. Colorado State is not good enough to win, but their offense should do enough to keep this within three touchdowns.

Cincinnati +3.5 Temple
When the Southpoint Casino released their season win totals back in May, it was obvious not much was expected from the Bearcats in 2018. Cincinnati's over/under total was just four, meaning the Bearcats eclipsed that by the time October rolled around. After winning just eight games over the past two seasons, another 4-8 campaign seemed reasonable. Optimists probably expected the Bearcats to return to the postseason in 2019, which would be Luke Fickell's third season in charge. However, the youth movement has coalesced a year ahead of schedule. The Bearcats are 6-0 and ranked for the first time since 2012. Off a bye, can they clinch a winning record and make themselves legitimate threats to the two Florida schools in the East division of the AAC? Even when they were struggling last season, the Bearcats were formidable as a road underdog. They covered in four of five games and won outright twice. They continued that trend this season, winning their first two games against UCLA and Miami (Ohio) as road and neutral site underdogs respectively. Temple will represent their stiffest test yet, as the Owls have improved since opening with losses to Villanova and Buffalo. Both teams have yet to face a good conference opponent, with their five vanquished foes combining for a 2-12 conference record. However, Cincinnati has been more dominant against their soft schedule, averaging about three more yards per play than their opponents. Temple has not been bad by any means, as the Owls are averaging north of two yards more per play than their opponents, but I think the wrong team is favored here. The time will come to fade Cincinnati as the year progresses (they are not one of the 25 best teams in the country), but that time is not this week.

Buffalo -1 Toledo
Since being blown out at home by Army at the end of September, Buffalo has returned to form in MAC play, winning their last two game to improve to 3-0 in the conference. That Army game, a non-conference game against a team that runs a unique offense appears to be an aberration. The Bulls allowed 42 points to the Black Knights, but against the other five FBS teams on their schedule, they have allowed just 20 points per game. In MAC play, the Bulls have one of the best defenses this side of Northern Illinois, and while their star receiver, Anthony Johnson, has struggled (just 352 receiving yards after averaging over 100 yards per game last season), other players have stepped up. KJ Osborn has over 600 yards receiving and a pair of freshmen running backs have combined for nearly 1000 yards on the ground. The Bulls should have a field day against a Toledo defense that has allowed over 41 points per game and over seven yards per play to FBS opponents this season. Winning on the road is never easy, but I would be comfortable backing Buffalo by at least a field goal.

North Carolina +9 Syracuse
With their loss to Virginia Tech last weekend, North Carolina has now lost sixteen of their last nineteen games against FBS opponents! That would explain why Larry Fedora might be on the hot seat despite a division title just three seasons ago. However, if you take a deeper dive into the box score, you'll notice the Tar Heels actually played pretty well. The Tar Heels outgained the Hokies by nearly 150 yards and averaged nearly two and half more yards per play! Alas, they were done in by untimely turnovers and missed field goals. The Tar Heels are now at full strength after their offseason suspensions, and if they are not totally demoralized from last week's result, I think they are a solid play here. Syracuse opened the season 4-0 and nearly upset Clemson, but the Orange followed up that Clemson loss with another road loss at Pitt. Overall, Syracuse, despite their offensive pedigree under Dino Babers, is averaging under five yards per play in conference games. If you look at just the records and ignore the yardage and yards per play numbers, this spread seems right on. However, a Tar Heel win would not shock me here. North Carolina is improving and should keep this game close.

NC State +17 Clemson
The Wolfpack have played tight games with the Tigers the past two seasons. Can they break through and take control of the Atlantic Division by winning in Death Valley for the first time since 2002? I doubt it, but I think there is a good chance they keep it close. NC State does not have the most explosive offense in the country, but senior Ryan Finley may be the best quarterback the Tigers face until the College Football Playoff. That's a partial indictment of the rest of the ACC, but mostly praise for Finley's talents. The last team to beat Clemson at home also had an NFL talent taking snaps (although you might not know it from his pro performance). As you might expect from a team with the national cache of Clemson, the Tigers have not been kind to degenerates as a double-digit home favorite, posting a 7-11-2 ATS mark since 2014. Meanwhile, NC State is 4-2 ATS as a double-digit road underdog with two outright wins in the same span. I don't think NC State will be able to win, but this game should be competitive.

UAB +1 North Texas
In their second year back from the dead, UAB can put themselves in prime position to win the Conference USA West division. The Blazers are the only team in the division without a conference loss, and a win here would give them a head-to-head win against their two biggest division competitors after they upset Louisiana Tech two weeks ago. The Blazers have arguably the best defense in Conference USA, as they have allowed just fourteen points through their first three conference games. Overall, the Blazers are allowing just over fourteen points per game on the season and outside of a head-scratching performance at Coastal Carolina where they allowed the Chanticleers to roll up 47 points, they have been fantastic. They have been especially prolific in getting to opposing quarterbacks, accumulating 23 sacks and 47 tackles for loss through six games. But don't sleep on the Mean Green defense. While their defense has not been quite as havoc-inducing as UAB's, they do have 22 sacks and 51 tackles for loss (albeit in one more game). However, the Mean Green have allowed opposing defenses to sack them eleven times and tackle them 54 times behind the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, UAB has done a better job of avoiding negative plays, allowing just five sacks and 24 tackles for loss on the season. The Blazers should spend a great deal of time in the Mean Green backfield while keeping the Mean Green out of theirs. Plus, UAB has been great as a home underdog under Bill Clark, posting a 5-1 ATS record while winning outright the last four times they have been in the role.

Washington State -1.5 Oregon
After fifteen years, Ol' Crimson is finally getting a home game. College Gameday will be making the trip to Pullman for this matchup that will determine control of the Pac-12 North midway through the season. In the offseason, many folks, myself included, thought Washington State might be in for some regression. The Cougars were returning just ten total starters and had some off the field issues including the suicide of Tyler Hilinski and Mike Leach openly job hunting that made it easy to picture a season unraveling at the first sign of adversity. Oh, and they also lost their revered defensive coordinator to a national power, who interestingly has not improved the defense he was hired to co-coordinate. Despite all that, the Cougars have endured. They survived a tricky opener against what we thought was a solid mid-major and cruised through the rest of non-conference action. They lost a nail-biter in their conference opener, but rebounded to beat a solid Utah team and hold off Oregon State before enjoying their bye. After struggling offensively last season (ninth in the Pac-12 in yards per play), the Cougars lead the conference in yards per play behind quarterback and East Carolina transfer Gardner Minshew. Now the Cougars face the new division front-runners fresh off a home upset of Washington. The Ducks upset Washington in overtime, but the Huskies actually averaged about a yard and a half more per play than the Ducks and probably should have won. The Pac-12 won't take the win away (probably), but the Ducks are a little over-valued going forward. I would rather be catching points with the Cougars here, but Washington State has been quite good as a home favorite (at least against FBS opponents) under Leach. Since 2013, the Cougars are 12-4 ATS as a home favorite and with a spread this small in a game this big, give the Cougars a play.

The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

It came down to the last game of the weekend, but Wyoming couldn't quite get the cover to give us another winning week. At least we avoided disaster. Let's get back on track this week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 3-4
Overall: 19-21-2

Arizona +14 Utah
Let's dub this game a Friday Night Eliminator (in the Pac-12 South). Arizona enters this game having won two of three after a shaky start, while Utah salvaged their season with a blowout win at Stanford last week. The Wildcats have three losses, but only one (Southern Cal) has come in conference play, so they are actually in better shape than the Utes who have twice as many conference losses. However, the Utes don't have any losses within the division, so a win here would set them up nicely heading into their home clash with Southern Cal next week. This is a typical Kyle Whittingham Utah team that wins with defense. The Utes currently rank in the top 20 nationally in scoring defense, total defense, and yards allowed per play. In a surprising development, Arizona has followed the defense first script, at least in conference play this season. After opening the season 1-2 while allowing nearly 35 points per game, the Wildcats have allowed just 55 points through their first three conference games. The offense has not been nearly as dynamic as it was last season with the presumably injured Khalil Tate rushing for just 109 yards on the season (over 1400 rushing yards last season). I expect this game to be low-scoring with neither team likely to score more than 30 points in regulation. Utah is over-valued after their upset at Stanford last week. While they scored 40 points against the Cardinal, they did have a long interception return contributing to their point total. This offense is simply not good enough to be laying double-digits against a competent team. In their four games against FBS opponents, Utah has only scored eight offensive touchdowns. A glut of Arizona turnovers could turn this into a blowout, but that is true of nearly every game. The more likely result is a close, low-scoring game. Utah will probably win, but they won't cover this number.

Iowa -4.5 Indiana
The implications of this line are interesting. Last week, Iowa played their first road game at Minnesota and were roughly favored by a touchdown. This week they travel to Indiana and are favored by about two and a half or three fewer points. The implication of course being that Indiana is two to three points better than Minnesota on a neutral field. That logic alone makes Iowa seem like an easy play here, especially considering the Hoosiers are coming off a road game at Ohio State. Iowa appears to bet set under center with quarterback Nate Stanley averaging over eight yards per throw in the early going. Iowa will need some help, but the division is still up for grabs with Wisconsin having to face both Michigan and Penn State on the road later in the year, so motivation should not be an issue against Indiana. The Hawkeyes have actually been solid the past few seasons as a road favorite, posting a 10-2-1 ATS record in the role since 2014. Iowa should win this game by at least a touchdown and likely move into the top-25 on Sunday afternoon.

Georgia Tech -2 Duke
While I was watching the merciless beatdown Georgia Tech put on Louisville last week (which I sort of called back in August, but didn't have the stones to call the week of), I thought there was a great chance this would be a featured game in The Magnificent Seven. However, I thought I would be on the other side. I figured dominance the Georgia Tech displayed, coupled with the fact that Duke lost their last game would make this spread around seven points. With that in mind, I was all set to add Duke to the card. But it does not appear that the Louisville game had any impact on this line. If Georgia Tech had won or lost a tight game, I think spread would have been about the same. Unlike Louisville, Duke is familiar with Georgia Tech's option attack, and the Blue Devils have won three of the last four in this series. However, only one of those wins came in Atlanta. Georgia Tech's road struggles since winning the Orange Bowl are well documented, but they have actually done well in the role of home favorite, posting an 8-4 ATS mark in that span (7-1 since the start of 2016). I like the Yellow Jackets to win by at least a field goal here.

Southern Miss +8.5 North Texas
Southern Miss is a respectable 17-13 in two and a half seasons under Jay Hopson. However, for diehard Southern Miss fans or fastidious point spread watchers, it feels like the Golden Eagles could have done so much more. Consider that of their 13 losses under Hopson, seven have come when the Golden Eagles were favored. In addition, four have come when Southern Miss was a double-digit favorite! On the flip side, Southern Miss has pulled five outright upsets, including two as a double-digit underdog. So what does all this mean? Well, it means you should be wary in backing Southern Miss as a favorite, but enthusiastic in backing them as an underdog. This is especially true this week as the Golden Eagles face off against a North Texas team that has struggled in their past two games. After opening with four non-competitive wins, the Mean Green lost at home to Louisiana Tech and then barely escaped El Paso last week. Southern Miss is rested off a bye (their second of the season thanks to a weather cancellation) and are good enough to leave Denton with an outright win.

Charlotte +9.5 Western Kentucky
The public at large must not have gotten the memo that Jeff Brohm is no longer coaching Western Kentucky. That is the only way I can rationalize this large number. Mike Sanford has been the head coach of Western Kentucky for eighteen games. His teams are 7-11 overall and five of those losses came in games in which they were favored. Overall, as a favorite, his teams are 2-8 ATS, including 0-4 as a road favorite. The 2018 incarnation seems especially ill-suited to cover a large road number as they are averaging just under 19 points per game on the season. Charlotte is far from a good team, and they will probably fire their coach by season's end, but the 49ers have been a frisky home underdog of late, covering four of their last six games in the role with two outright upsets. I'm not quite bold enough to call for another upset, but they should do enough to cover here.

Michigan -7.5 Wisconsin
To misquote the Bard, 'Something is rotten in the state of Wisconsin'. On the surface, the Badgers appear to be the same dominant defense they have always been for most of the last two decades. They are allowing just over 16 points per game through their first five contests (a slight dip from last season when they allowed under 14 points per game), but if you look closer, you can see some leaks. In their past two games, the vaunted Badger defense has allowed over seven yards per play to both Iowa and Nebraska. The Badgers had not allowed more than seven yards per play in any contest since the 2016 Big Ten Championship Game against Penn State. For good measure, they also allowed over six yards per play to BYU in their upset loss. Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson has not proven he can carve up an elite defense yet, but there is a pretty good argument to be made that Wisconsin is not an elite defense. The only elite defense in this game will be sharing a sideline with him. Playing a night game at home with a chance for a modicum of revenge for last year's game, Michigan should give a great effort. As home favorite, the Wolverines are just 12-11 ATS, but if we ignore the results from the 2017 'rebuilding year', those numbers improve to 11-7. Jim Harbaugh is not one to show mercy to a lesser opponent, so if the Wolverines have a chance to earn some 'style' points, I think they will take it. I don't like the hook sitting out there, but I feel confident Michigan can win this game by double-digits.

Arkansas +6.5 Ole Miss
Arkansas must be paying some sort of Alabama penalty for the line to be this high. Yes, the Hogs were pretty much vaporized by Alabama's now potent offense, but so was every other team the Tide have faced this season, including the team on the other sideline in this game. It should be noted, that of the five previous teams to lose to Alabama this season, each of them won their following game. I would imagine getting 60 points hung on you is embarrassing, but it hasn't really caused teams to not show up the next week. Ole Miss has pounded inferior defenses this season, averaging over 57 points per game in the non-conference portion of their schedule. However, once the competition improves, the Ole Miss offense tends to go missing. The Rebels scored seven points against Alabama and just sixteen in a non-competitive loss to LSU. Prior to last week's bloodletting, Arkansas had played well defensively. The Hogs held each of their first five opponents below six yards per play and were allowing just over 350 yards per game. Arkansas has won the past four games in this rivalry, with the last three being decided by just six total points. I expect another close game here, and I don't see how anyone can have confidence that Ole Miss can take their show on the road against any SEC team and expect to win by at least a touchdown as the Rebels have not covered as a road favorite since 2015. They are also just 3-7 in true road games since the start of the 2016 season. Take the Hogs to cover here and maybe sprinkle a little on the moneyline if you're feeling lucky.

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

We had our best performance of the year last week. Our putrid pick of San Jose State and UTEP both came through. Let's see if we can make it two strong weeks in a row. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 5-2
Overall: 16-17-2

East Carolina +11 Temple
One of the more amazing things you have probably not heard about is the improvement of the East Carolina defense. In Scottie Montgomery's first two seasons in Greenville, the Pirates allowed an average of over 40 points per game and over seven yards per play! Surmising (correctly) that he might be on his way to the unemployment line, Montgomery hired David Blackwell from Jacksonville State to be his defensive coordinator. The improvement has been outstanding. Through four games, the Pirates are allowing just 25.5 points per game and 4.88 yards per play. That appeared to be all for naught as the Pirates began the 2018 season by losing to an FCS team for the second consecutive year. However, they won the game everywhere but the scoreboard. They allowed just 269 total yards to the Aggies, but were done in by turnovers (-3 margin), including one that was returned for a touchdown. Since that loss, the Pirates have beaten North Carolina, played South Florida to within a touchdown, and beaten Old Dominion. The Pirates have been particularly strong in creating havoc plays. They have 17 sacks through four games after accumulating just 19 total sacks in Montgomery's first two seasons (24 games). The nation at-large is still sleeping on the Pirates, and with the loss to an FCS opponent, East Carolina may not be able to get bowl eligible, but they will be a tough out the rest of the way. Temple is a solid team, but their offense is not strong enough to justify them laying double-digits.

Syracuse -4 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh and Syracuse joined the ACC in the same year (2013) and were placed in opposite divisions, but designated permanent rivals, meaning they face off each season. The five games they have played against each other as ACC members have tended to be pretty close, with three being decided by a field goal or less and one featuring a basketball score. Pitt has won four of five the five meetings, and dating back to 2002, the Panthers have emerged victorious thirteen times in the last sixteen meetings. So why on earth am I backing the Orange this week? Syracuse appears to have turned the proverbial corner in their third season under Dino Babers. After consecutive 4-8 seasons, the Orange already have four wins banked and their lone loss came on the road at Clemson. The offense has averaged over 44 points per game in the early going and senior quarterback Eric Dungey has accounted for fifteen touchdowns (nine passing and six rushing). Meanwhile, Pitt has floundered after ending the 2017 season on a solid note with a victory against Miami. That win seems to have been more about Miami wheezing to the finish line rather than Pitt improving. In fairness to the Panthers, two of their three losses in 2018 have come to top-fifteen teams in Penn State and Central Florida, but the Panthers were not competitive in either game, losing by a combined 76 points while scoring just two offensive touchdowns. They also lost to what appears to be a bad North Carolina team on the road and their lone victory against an FBS opponent came at home against a team (Georgia Tech) that has not won a road game since Reconstruction (roughly). Pitt has not protected their homefield under Pat Narduzzi, posting a 3-5 ATS mark as a home underdog. On the other side, Syracuse has rarely been a road favorite under Babers as their opening win against Western Michigan was the only time they have been in that position under his guidance. In fact, this marks the first time they have been a road favorite against a Power Five opponent since 2014. Even though this is uncharted territory for Syracuse, Pitt appears to be a bad team and I expect Syracuse to be able to score enough points to win by at least a touchdown here.

Miami (Ohio) +3.5 Akron
Last week, as I predicted, if the game was close, Miami would find a way to blow it. The Redhawks dropped a heartbreaker to Western Michigan last week, to fall to 1-4. The brass has been patient with Chuck Martin, but he cannot afford many more losses if he wants to keep his job. Can Miami bounce back against an Akron team that has only played three games more than a month into the season? The Zips are 2-1 thanks to a turnover fueled upset of Northwestern. The Zips followed that up with a solid performance in a road loss to Iowa State. Now they return home to open the defense of their MAC East division crown. Miami of Ohio has been a solid play as a road underdog under Chuck Martin, posting a 9-4 ATS mark. And, lest you think they have racked up those covers as huge underdogs against Power Five opponents, consider they are 9-4 ATS as a road underdog in MAC play with four outright upsets. While Akron has enjoyed a solid September with a massive road upset, Miami is the more desperate team. Their loss last week came to a team from the MAC West, so technically their division title hopes are still alive. I think the Redhawks circle the wagons and get a huge road win.

Colorado -3 Arizona State
Their first four opponents have not been especially strong, but Colorado is 4-0 for the first time since 1998! In the wide-open Pac-12 South, where every other team already has at least one conference loss, the Buffaloes have a chance to bank a second conference victory before heading out on an important two game road trip to face the division favorite (Southern Cal) and overall conference favorite (Washington). You probably don't know this, but the Buffs have the nation's leading receiver (at least in terms of yards per game). Sophomore Laviska Shenault Jr. is currently averaging nearly 150 yards per game through the air. In three games against FBS competition, Shenault has snagged 33 passes for 514 yards! His contributions have helped the Buffs average over 40 points per game in the early going. For comparison's sake, they averaged just over 26 points per game last season. If the Buffs are not looking ahead to next week's showdown with the Trojans I think they have a great shot at covering this number. The Buffs, in the rare times they have been home favorites under Mike MacIntyre, are 8-4 ATS. Couple that with the fact that the Sun Devils have already lost both of their road games thus far in 2018, and the Buffs are an easy play at this small number.

Old Dominion +15 Florida Atlantic
Last week, the streak came to an end. After beginning his career with eight consecutive conference wins (nine if we include last year's championship game) at Florida Atlantic, Lane Kiffin and the Owls fell at Middle Tennessee thanks to a late two-point conversion. The loss dropped the Owls to 2-3 and continued a disturbing offensive trend. After scoring at least 30 points in each of their final twelve games last season (and averaging nearly 45 points per game in that span), the Owls have averaged just under 27 points per game against FBS opponents in 2018. It's not a perfect comparison thanks to the disparity in talent, but this reminds me a lot of Lane's 2012 Southern Cal team. Recall his 2011 team, which was ineligible for the postseason, finished 10-2 with a late victory against eventual Pac-12 champion Oregon. That raised expectations significantly for the next season, and the Trojans began the year ranked first in the nation. They never came close to meeting those expectations though, losing their last three games to finish 7-6 with a disinterested Sun Bowl loss to Georgia Tech capping the disappointing season. The Owls weren't ranked number one to start 2018, but they were prohibitive favorites in Conference USA. Hopes for a conference title are not dead yet, but the margin for error has been significantly reduced. Can the Owls get back on track against a 1-4 Old Dominion team? The oddsmakers seem to think so. I assumed this line would be closer to ten points when it came out, so I think there is great value on Old Dominion. The Monarchs made a quarterback change two weeks ago with former walk-on Blake LaRussa replacing Steven Williams. In those two games, the offense has scored 84 total points against two pretty good defenses (Virginia Tech and East Carolina). Contrast that to their first three games where the offense totaled just 55 points against weaker competition (Liberty, Florida International, and Charlotte). Florida Atlantic has a bad defense, so even if they race out to an early lead, Old Dominion will have ample opportunity to cut into it and the backdoor will be wide open. I expect a relatively close, high-scoring game here and this line indicates you have to pay a premium to back Florida Atlantic. Take the Monarchs to cover this large number.

UAB +9.5 Louisiana Tech
Last week Louisiana Tech gave themselves the inside track to the Conference USA West title by beating preseason favorite North Texas in Denton. Now the Bulldogs have a chance to consolidate their hold on the division by beating the division darkhorses from Birmingham. A victory against the Blazers would move the Bulldogs to 2-0 in the conference with victories against their most likely challengers. A trip to Hattiesburg awaits in November, but after this game, the schedule features mostly the dregs of the division (Rice, UTEP, and UTSA). This is Louisiana Tech's second home game of the season and first in a month, so Ruston should be rocking. So why is UAB the pick? Well, for starters, the Blazers have been solid plays as an underdog under Bill Clark, posting a 6-3 ATS record. If we only consider games against fellow Group of Five teams, the Blazers are even more impressive, going 4-1 against the number. In addition, the Bulldogs were probably a little lucky to escape with a win at North Texas last week. The Mean Green outgained the Bulldogs by nearly 70 yards and averaged almost a full yard more per play. But, the Mean Green committed two turnovers while the Bulldogs played with a clean slate. One of those turnovers came inside their own ten, gifting the Bulldogs a touchdown. The Mean Green also missed two field goals, with the Bulldogs blocking the potential game-winner in the final minute. The Bulldogs won't be giving the win back, but that win has this spread too high. I was expecting this number to be closer to a field goal, so UAB is an easy play here.

Wyoming +3.5 Hawaii
After winning three games all of last season, Hawaii won five games before the calendar flipped to October in 2018. Of course, the last few weeks, they have cost degenerates money by not covering the spread. And yet, oddsmakers continue to make them favorites. While the Rainbow Warriors have five wins, the four FBS teams they have beaten have combined for a 4-14 overall record. In may not be hyperbole to say Wyoming is the best team Hawaii has faced thus far. Army and Navy may have some point of contention with that statement, but nonetheless, its close. Wyoming has struggled in the early going offensively, much like they did throughout 2017 despite the presence of a first round pick at quarterback. But Hawaii may be just what they need. The Rainbow Warriors have allowed an average of over 32 points per game in the early going. Their pass defense has been particularly galling, allowing opponents to average over nine yards per throw. After Boise State and their stout defense last week, this will be a welcome change for Wyoming. In addition to their defensive struggles, Hawaii has not done well in the role of favorite under Nick Rolovich. The Rainbow Warriors are 0-5 ATS as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS as a favorite overall. Meanwhile, Wyoming has been solid as an underdog under Craig Bohl. They have posted an 11-7 ATS mark in the role and have been even better as a slight underdog of late. They have won outright the past three times they have been a road underdog of a touchdown or less. Look for more of the same on Saturday night if you can manage to stay up late.

The Magnificent Seven: Week V

The good news is last week was better than the week before. The bad news is we still went 2-4-1. So how do we plan on digging out of this hole? By backing two of the worst teams in college football: San Jose State and UTEP.

Ye gads. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 2-4-1
Overall: 11-15-2

Temple +13 Boston College
Was Boston College exposed last week against Purdue? Perhaps. In their first three games, the explosive BC offense had averaged nearly 53 points per game and over seven and a half yards per play. Against Purdue, the Eagles scored 13 points and were held below four yards per play. However, in their first three games, Boston College faced Massachusetts, Holy Cross, and Wake Forest. Holy Cross is an FCS team, and Massachusetts and Wake Forest have been two of the worst defenses in FBS in the early going. Both rank below 100th nationally in total defense, scoring defense, and (almost) yards allowed per play. Massachusetts does rank 96th in yards allowed per play, and unlike Wake Forest, they have not fired their defensive coordinator, so there is that. But, suffice to say, Boston College feasted on bad defenses in the early going. Temple did lose to an FCS team (albeit a pretty good one) and Buffalo, but they do not have a bad defense. The Owls have allowed under four and a half yards per play through their first four games. I expect some improvement from Boston College over their last outing, but this won't look like one of their first three games. I don't think Temple has enough offense to win outright, but they should keep it close.

Virginia +6 NC State
Hey look everybody, Bronco Mendenhall has turned Virginia into a legitimate football program. After qualifying for a bowl game last season, the Cavaliers are halfway to bowl eligibility in 2018. Three more wins would make them bowl eligible in consecutive seasons for first time since the glory days of Al Groh. The Cavaliers have already faced a pair of Power Five teams (Indiana and Louisville), against whom they are 1-1. NC State, thanks to the cancellation of their game with West Virginia, will be facing their first Power Five opponent in this conference opener. Thus far, they have faced an FCS team, granted a good one (James Madison), an awful Sun Belt team (Georgia State), and a decent Conference USA team on the road (Marshall). Still, despite the relatively light competition, NC State has not been especially impressive. Their running game has been particularly anemic, averaging just 3.36 yards per rush (3.54 once we remove sacks). Senior quarterback Ryan Finley has played well, but again, the competition was not especially challenging. NC State has not been especially good as a home favorite under Dave Doeren, posting a 6-9 ATS mark since 2014. This line should be closer to a field goal, so take Virginia to keep this one close.

Louisville +6.5 Florida State
Might as well go for a swim in the ACC sewage. These two teams have been extremely disappointing in the early going. Both are 2-2, but neither has been impressive on offense. Offensive guru Bobby Petrino has Louisville averaging just 17 points per game, while Florida State has been dominant by comparison, averaging close to 21 points per game. Of course, Alabama represents one fourth of Louisville's early schedule, while Florida State's best opponent thus far has been...Virginia Tech? Syracuse? At least Louisville was able to handle their FCS opponent, beating Indiana State by 24, while Florida State trailed Samford in the fourth quarter before eking out a win. I was on Florida State two weeks ago in the Carrier Dome, and after viewing most of that debacle, I can't understand how you can back Florida State as a significant favorite on the road. A Titans/Jags 9-6 crapfest seems appropriate here. The one unit that should play well in this game is the defensive line. Louisville has allowed 11 sacks thus far and Florida State has allowed 12. Both figures rank 100th or worse nationally. I don't recommend watching this game, but a third straight Louisville victory against the Seminoles would not surprise me.

Western Michigan +1.5 Miami (Ohio)
After a rough start to 2018, Miami opened up MAC play with a victory last week against Bowling Green. Of course, the Falcons may well be one of the worst teams in the conference as their lone victory came the week before against an FCS team in a game where they were significantly outgained. Western Michigan likewise rebounded from their rough start against a pair of Power Five teams. After losing to Syracuse and Michigan 59 points, the Broncos played well against an FCS team (Delaware State) and team that might as well be in the FCS (Georgia State). Those two games can skew the offensive numbers, but the Broncos also moved the ball well against Syracuse in the opener. They just could not contain Eric Dungey. The offense struggled against Michigan, but that was to be expected. I think the Broncos will be able to move the ball against a solid (by MAC standards) Miami defense. I sort of expected Western Michigan to be a slight favorite in this game, which would have meant a pass for me. So, with them catching points, I can't resist. Plus, Western Michigan is 10-2 since 2014 against teams from the MAC East. And finally, Miami is a putrid 5-18 in one-score games under Chuck Martin. Normally, I think those numbers should trend to .500, but Miami has had a losing record in close games each season under Martin. if this game is indeed close as the odds would indicate, you can bank on Miami finding a way to blow it.

San Jose State +13 Hawaii
In the summer, this game seemed like it could be one of the biggest stinkers of the week. These teams combined to finish 5-20 in 2017 with just three of those wins coming against FBS teams. And there was not much optimism heading into 2018 as Hawaii opened the season as a double-digit underdog to Colorado State and San Jose State was basically a pick 'em against an FCS opponent. San Jose State lost their opener to that FCS team, but a funny thing happened on the way to Nick Rolovich's trip to the unemployment line. The Warriors embraced the run n' shoot and won four of their first five games while averaging over 40 points per contest. Can the Warriors continue their high-flying ways and move to 2-0 in the Mountain West. On the surface, this game looks like a total mismatch. Hawaii is 4-1, with their lone loss coming against an option team in a game that literally kicked off while most folks on the islands were sleeping. Meanwhile, San Jose State is 0-3 with the aforementioned loss to that FCS team as well as two losses to Pac-12 teams. In three games, San Jose State has scored 60 points, or one point more than Hawaii scored in their win against Navy. So why is San Jose State the play here? Take another look at Hawaii's schedule. Colorado State has won one game while allowing their opponents to score nearly 40 points per game. Oh, and they also just lost at home by multiple score to Illinois State. Navy is 2-2 with a win over Memphis, but this does not appear to be your prototypical Navy team. The Midshipmen have allowed 33 points per game in their first four contests and were extremely fortunate to get their one FBS win. Rice has not beaten an FBS team and has allowed at least 40 points to each one they have played. Those are the three FBS teams Hawaii has beaten. Its better than most probably expected over the summer, but those are not good teams. Next, consider the arduous travel Hawaii must deal with. Three weeks ago, Hawaii played Rice at home. Two weeks ago, they played on the east coast against Army. Last week, they were back on the islands. Now they travel to San Jose. This game is on the west coast, but that is a great deal of travel in a short amount of time. While the Warriors have been gallivanting across this great land, San Jose State has had a week off to prepare for their arrival. And while the Spartans never threatened to beat Oregon in their last game, it does bare mentioning they only lost by 13 points. Hawaii has been a road favorite just five times since the start of the 2011 season. They have not covered in any of those games and have lost three straight up, including the last time they were favored by double-digits. I don't know if San Jose State has the firepower to win outright, but this is too many points to lay on the road.

UTEP +10.5 Texas-San Antonio
TCU/Texas was a big game last weekend, but for my money, this is the biggest battle this season in the state of Texas. The Miners will be seeking their first victory since the last game of the 2016 season. Cleveland got one last week, so there is hope. Make no mistake, the Miners are bad, having dropped three of their four games in 2018 by at least 20 points, including their opener against Northern Arizona. However, Texas-San Antonio is not the type of team you want to back laying double-digits. The Roadrunners are averaging just over 17 points per game in 2018 and have not scored more than 25 in any one game. Despite scoring 25 points in that game, the Roadrunners have not gained more than 300 yards in any game and are averaging under four yards per play for the season. Plus, the Roadrunners have performed poorly as a home favorite under (J) Frank Wilson, going 2-6 ATS and 1-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite. In a nugget you are unlikely to hear anywhere else on the web, the road team has won all five games in this series. UTEP won't make it six for six for the visitor, but they should do enough to cover this large number.

BYU +17 Washington
Almost a month in to the college football season, the playoff contenders appear to be set. You have Alabama and Georgia (I refuse to include LSU) in the SEC, Ohio State and Penn State in the Big 10, Clemson in the ACC, Oklahoma in the Big 12, Notre Dame in the sort of ACC, and Stanford and Washington in the Pac-12. Unfortunately for the Huskies, they have zero margin for error as their inability to finish drives cost them in the opener against Auburn. Over the summer, a victory over BYU didn't look like it would mean much, as the Cougars were coming off a 4-9 campaign, but BYU is the proud owner of a pair of Power Five road victories (as a double-digit underdog in both), and currently ranked in the AP top-20. For all the flak Washington's non-conference schedule has gotten over the last few seasons, this could end up being a real quality win when the playoff field is determined. Of course, for it to be a quality win, the Huskies need to actually win it. Will they? Probably, but this line seems a little high. Even when they were suffering through their lost 2017 season, BYU was still frisky as a road underdog, going 2-1 ATS with an outright upset. Overall, the Cougars are 7-1 ATS as a road underdog under Kalani Sitake including 3-1 as a double-digit underdog with two outright wins. A few years ago, you could have gotten good numbers with the Huskies as a favorite, but everyone knows Chris Petersen has an elite team now, so there is almost no value in taking them in that role. Plus, while the Huskies have an elite defense, allowing just under 13 points per game this season, they have not scored more than 27 points in any game against an FBS opponent. BYU is no slouch defensively, so expect this to be a low scoring affair. If BYU can score one touchdown, they should be able to cover this number.

The Magnificent Seven: Week IV

The less said about last week, the better. Let's see if we can rebound after our first losing week. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 1-5-1
Overall: 9-11-1

Tulsa +7 Temple
After a disappointing 0-2 start that included a loss to an FCS (Villanova) and MAC (Buffalo) team at home, Temple took their show on the road and upset undefeated Maryland. The Owls scored a season-high 35 points which included a fat-guy offensive touchdown. No disrespect to Freddie Booth-Lloyd, who I am sure is a wonderful guy (and fully capable of kicking my ass), but he is listed at 6-1, 330 pounds, which is on the upper end of most BMI charts. By winning that game, Temple begins conference play with a little momentum. Can they keep it up against a Tulsa team coming off a tough home loss to Arkansas State? While the Golden Hurricane have been bad as a home underdog under Phillip Montgomery (1-7 ATS), they have done better as a travelling act. As a road underdog, the Golden Hurricane are 10-3 ATS under Montgomery with a pair of outright wins. Even in their 2-10 campaign last season, Tulsa managed to cover three of their five games as a road underdog. Tulsa will be facing off against a team that you do not want to be laying a touchdown with. Before their relative offensive explosion against Maryland, the Owls struggled to score points, totaling just 46 combined points against Villanova and Buffalo. That continues a disappointing trend for the Owls in Philadelphia. In eight home games under Geoff Collins, the Owls have averaged just under 23 points per game and have failed to cover all five times they have been a home favorite. Tulsa is a spread offense built to run and Temple has struggled in the early going stopping the run, allowing 4.75 yards per rush (once sacks are removed). I like Tulsa to keep this one close on Thursday night.

Ball State -3 Western Kentucky
Want a prime example of the variance that abounds in college football? Two weeks ago, Western Kentucky lost at home by three points to Maine. Last weekend, the Hilltoppers went to Louisville, led the Cardinals in the fourth quarter, and lost by...three points. Credit the Hilltoppers for maintaining their focus and playing hard against Louisville, but the loss dropped Western Kentucky to 0-3 and Mike Sanford Jr. is now 6-10 as head coach. After the outstanding success the program enjoyed under Jeff Brohm, the villagers are probably gathering their pitchforks and torches. The worst part is that the prolific offense has disappeared. In each of Brohm's three seasons, the Hilltoppers averaged at least 44 points per game. In sixteen games under Sanford, the Hilltoppers have scored at least 44 points once. This season, they are averaging just 16 points per game. If we remove the opener against Wisconsin, that number does climb to 22.5 points per game, but that is still underwhelming. The Hilltoppers close out their non-conference schedule against a Ball State team looking to make a move in Mike Neu's third season. The Cardinals have been marginally competitive in their two games against Power Five opponents, losing to their in-state 'rivals' Notre Dame and Indiana by eight and 28 points respectively. This spread implies these teams are about evenly matched on a neutral field. I believe Ball State is the better team. Couple that with the standard homefield advantage and this line feels at least two points too short. Take Ball State to win and increase the pressure on Mike Sanford.

Oregon State +6 Arizona
The Beavers came close last weekend, but despite outplaying Nevada on the road, they dropped their thirteenth straight game to an FBS opponent. The Beavers have not beaten an FBS team since wining the Civil War to close the 2016 season. Although they didn't get the win, the Beavers seem to be much improved under first year head coach Jonathan Smith, particularly on offense. After averaging just under 21 points per game last season, the Beavers have scored at least 31 in each game in 2018. Of course, they have allowed over 46 points per game, so its no surprise they are only 1-2. Keep in mind though, their two losses have come on the road. Now they return to the friendly confines of Corvallis to face another 1-2 team that is not pleased to be 1-2 under their first year coach. In their only road game to date, Arizona fell behind 38-0 to a Houston team last seen allowing 63 points to Texas Tech. Arizona has lost their last two and seven of their last nine trips to Corvallis. Oregon State has a solid offense and is dangerous catching points, especially at home. Take them to give Arizona all they can handle.

Liberty +14 North Texas
North Texas is 3-0 and fresh off a four-touchdown road win against an SEC team. Not only did the Mean Green beat the Razorbacks, they stunted on them with this amazing punt return. Of course, the Mean Green also benefited from six Arkansas turnovers. The Mean Green did outgain the Razorbacks, but the margin (40 yards) was not indicative of the final score. The general public sees the beating they laid on an SEC team and thinks they should do more of the same against a team transitioning to FBS. Hold on a second though. Not only did North Texas benefit from all those turnovers, they also have a big game next week, when they host Louisiana Tech. That game will go a long way toward determining pole position in the west division of Conference USA, so North Texas could very well be overlooking the Flames. Plus, Liberty had an unexpected week off to lick their wounds following their loss to Army. Liberty may not be better than Arkansas, but their passing game is almost certainly more dangerous. If the Flames don't turn the ball over up and down the field, they should keep this one close.

Louisiana Tech +21 LSU
Les Miles may not be in Baton Rouge anymore, but his spirit is alive and well in the bayou. While LSU is currently a top-ten team and has two very impressive wins, the offense is still as ugly as it ever was. Joe Burrow, a quarterback at an SEC school in 2018 has completed 46% of his passes. Those are Bobby Douglass numbers (without the running skills). His best performance, percentage wise, came against Southeastern Louisiana, when he completed half his passes. Maybe LSU can ride a good defense and an inconsistent at best passing game to an SEC West title, but I have serious doubts. The Tigers won't need Burrow to play well to beat Louisiana Tech at home, but they probably will need him to in order to cover. It's hard to justify backing a team with such limited offensive capabilities laying three touchdowns. Oh, and the Tigers happen to be coming off a huge conference road win. And they have another conference opponent on deck (Ole Miss). I think LSU, particularly the defense, will be looking ahead to next week's showdown with the Rebels and their dynamic receiving corps. Louisiana Tech has been solid as a road underdog since Skip Holtz came to town, posting a 10-6-1 ATS mark, including 9-3-1 since 2014. They have also done well against Power Five opponents, going 5-3-1 ATS, including near victories against Kansas State in 2015, Arkansas in 2016, and South Carolina last season. This also marks the fifth straight season they have traveled to an SEC venue, so they should not be intimidated. Louisiana Tech won't win, but I think there is a good chance while you're watching Stanford and Oregon, you'll notice this game is within ten points in the fourth quarter.

Utah State -10 Air Force
I know the opponents have been less than formidable (New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech), but Utah State has still been impressive in their two home games this season. The Aggies scored a combined 133 points on the other Aggies and Golden Eagles. They have been especially proficient on the ground, accumulating nearly 600 yards and scoring ten touchdowns in both games. Now the Aggies open conference play against an opponent that has gotten under their skin the past three seasons. Air Force has won the last three games against Utah State, with each victory coming by a touchdown or less, despite being outgained by the Aggies and averaging nearly a yard less per play. The Falcons have benefited from some Aggie turnovers (+3 margin in the three games) and general good fortune. I think that tightrope will be tough to walk this season in Logan. Utah State has been solid as a double-digit home favorite under Matt Wells, posting an 8-4 ATS mark. Look for the Aggies to continue rolling here.

Eastern Michigan +10.5 San Diego State
After winning 32 games from 2015 through 2017, the Aztecs were somewhat written off from a national perspective following their season-opening loss to Stanford and less than impressive win against Sacramento State. And then late Saturday night, the Aztecs upset Arizona State moving their Pac-12 record to 3-1 over the past season and a half (which is the same number of Pac-12 wins Utah has in that span). The Aztecs pulled the upset with their backup quarterback by following their usual script. The Aztecs ran the ball 58 times against the Sun Devils, the fourteenth time they have run the ball at least 50 times in the last 44 games. In this era of spread tempo offense and four-hour football games, Rocky Long is a great throwback to the 1970s NFL. However, don't confuse this San Diego State offense with three yards and a cloud of dust. Juwan Washington (and his backup Chase Jasmin) is following in the footsteps of Donnel Pumphrey and Rashaad Penny by providing big-play capability in the backfield. Unfortunately, even Rocky Long is not immune to letdowns and I think the Aztecs are in prime position for one after their big win last weekend. Their guests on Saturday night are used to being road warriors. Under Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan is 16-9-1 ATS as a road underdog, including 11-2 since the start of the 2016 season. Under Creighton, the former doormats have won two road games against Power Five opponents. Under his predecessor, the Eagles won four road games total. I've never been to San Diego, but I hear the weather is nice. And the Aztecs have done their best to be accommodating to infrequent visitors. Since 2014, the Aztecs have been favored against four non-conference opponents. The Aztecs have failed to cover in each of those games, including losing one outright. You'll have to stay up late, but this should be a great, if under the radar game. Back Eastern Michigan and expect them to keep it close.

The Magnificent Seven: Week III

Two winning weeks in a row to start 2018. And we only really whiffed on one game. Sorry for telling you to back Arizona. I think this two game stretch has done more to damage Khalil Tate's pro prospects than the triple option ever could. The theme for this week is weather. A pretty big storm is brewing in the Atlantic so several games, including a few on this list could be canceled or postponed. Have no fear though, if some games are canceled we'll add extra picks throughout the season to get us back to the seven game average. Stay safe everyone. As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 8-6

Wake Forest +7 Boston College
Boston College was somewhat of a chic sleeper team over the summer thanks to their strong showing to end 2017. The Eagles won five of their last six regular season games after a 2-4 start, and more importantly finally got their offense on track under Steve Addazio. Over their last six games, the Eagles eclipsed the 30-point barrier five times and averaged a cool 36 points per game. The Eagles have continued to fly high in 2018, scoring 117 total points in easy wins against outclassed competition. Now, the Eagles have their first real test of the season as they open conference play at historic BB&T Field. While the Eagles have looked fantastic in the early going, I think it might be time to pump the breaks on the Boston College bandwagon. For starters, while the offense certainly improved at the end of last season, part of that can be explained by the schedule. In those final six games, the Eagles faced defenses that finished 84th (Louisville), 99th (Syracuse), and 126th (Connecticut) in Defensive S&P. Plus, while Florida State (33rd), NC State (62nd) and Virginia (43rd) were decent on that side of the ball, the Eagles did not face any elite defenses during their run of offensive dynamism. I don't like to read too much into bowl games, but it is worth mentioning they only manged 20 points against a very good Iowa defense (15th). I don't doubt the offensive gains were real, but this is not Chip Kelly's Oregon. Wake Forest does not have an elite defense, but they represent the best resistance the Eagles will have faced on that side of the ball (no offense to Massachusetts and Holy Cross). Wake has been spry as a home dog under Dave Clawson, going 8-4-1 ATS with three outright wins in the role. On the surface, Boston College has been mediocre as a road favorite under Addazio, posting a 4-5 ATS mark, but when you filter out a pair of games against Massachusetts, that record drops to 2-5. I think the market has bought into the Boston College hype a little too much as this number has crept up after opening at five. Facing a conference opponent on the road on a short week is too much to ask. Take the Demon Deacons here.

Florida State -3.5 Syracuse
The Willie Taggart era has not gotten off to the smoothest of starts. After a disappointing 6-6 regular season in 2017, the hope was that Taggart could invigorate a talented roster that had grown a little stale under the old regime. It's way too soon to render any final verdict, but most Florida State fans never thought they would lose the opener by three touchdowns and then need a fourth quarter rally to beat an FCS team. Yet, here we are. As always though, I try to take a measured look at the proceedings and look for market inefficiencies. I think this game presents several. For one, Florida State did not deserve to beat Virginia Tech, but they also did not deserve to lose by three touchdowns. The Seminoles actually slightly outgained the Hokies and averaged more yards per play. Five turnovers and a blocked punt contributed to the inflated margin. Secondly, the Seminoles were in a rough spot against Samford having just played on Monday night. In the last decade, there have been several instances of teams losing on Labor Day night and then struggling against FCS competition the next week. Nine years ago, Florida State has in the exact same spot and had a hard time with Jacksonville State. Virginia Tech famously lost to James Madison after losing a tight game to Boise State. Navy edged Georgia Southern after losing to Maryland. All those teams enjoyed decent to solid seasons despite losing their opener and then struggling with an FCS team on a short week. Thirdly, if you wanted to see Florida State's offense get on track, Syracuse is about a good a team as you could ask for. Remember, the Orange were getting gashed by Western Michigan to the tune of 621 yards and nearly ten yards per play two weeks ago. The Orange won that game thanks to an amazing performance by Eric Dungey, but were sieves defensively against a MAC team. Syracuse has pulled off a few shockers under Dino Babers in the Carrier Dome, but overall they are just 2-5 ATS as a home underdog losing all five non-covers by at least fifteen points. If I had offered you this line five days ago, you would have jumped at the chance to take Florida State. Don't read too much into their ugly win against Samford. The Seminoles will roll here.

Rutgers +3 Kansas
Kansas finally got the proverbial monkey off their back last week as they won a road game for the first time since 2009. For all intents and purposes though, that win was meaningless. Central Michigan was expected to be a bad team coming into the season and they have not disappointed in the early going. The win means Kansas will finish 1-11 instead of 0-12 and ensures David Beatty will end his coaching career with four more wins than me and you. The Jayhawks won comfortably against the Chippewas, but against a MAC team, they barely averaged north of five yards per play. They won easily by forcing six turnovers and committing none. If you think that trend is likely to continue, keep in mind the Jayhawks have finished with a clean turnover sheet just two other times under Beatty. While games with no turnovers have been rare for the Jayhawks, games where they have been favored have been nearly as rare. The Jayhawks have been home favorites against FBS competition twice under Beatty. They lost both of those games...to MAC teams...by 34 total points. In fact, the last time Kansas was favored at home against a Power Five team was 2009! The Jayhawks won that game, but failed to cover. I guess what I'm trying to say is, there is no way in hell you should be backing Kansas as a favorite, much less against a Power Five team. Just to be clear though, I am not trying to imply that Rutgers is a good team in any way. The Scarlet Knights looked horrendous last week, but at least have the excuse that they played Ohio State. Rutgers should be able to do what nearly every other FBS team (except Texas) and half the FCS teams on their schedule have been able to do; beat Kansas in Lawrence.

Boise State +3 Oklahoma State
In the current iteration of the AP Poll, Boise State is the highest ranked Group of Five team. Of course, the AP Poll has no bearing on which teams qualify for the College Football Playoff or which teams participate in New Year's Six bowls, but I think its fair to say the Broncos are at worst co-favorites at this point, along with Central Florida, to represent the Group of Five in a New Year's Six game. A road win against a ranked Big 12 team would certainly give them an early edge, and with the troubles in Chapel Hill and Pittsburgh respectively, trump anything remaining on Central Florida's schedule. But, bowl season is a long way off, so let's not get ahead of ourselves. Regular readers might remember that I was high on the Broncos in the offseason, snagging this same bet with a little better value at +4.5. The Broncos have done nothing in the early going to dissuade me from continuing to back them. They have outscored their first two opponents by nearly 100 points and have averaged over nine yards per play. One of those opponents was Connecticut, so some perspective is needed, but the other was a road game against a decent Troy team. Oklahoma State has been similarly dominant in their first two wins, but in the aggregate, Missouri State and South Alabama are probably weaker than Troy and Connecticut. This will represent the first major test for either of these teams and while Boise State will take a senior fourth-year starting quarterback into Stillwater, the Cowboys will counter with an inexperienced senior quarterback making just his third career start. Under Bryan Harsin, Boise State is 6-4 straight up against Power Five teams, but when the Broncos are underdogs, that chip on their shoulder seems to make them play harder. The Broncos are 3-1 ATS in the role with two outright wins and another near miss. I feel confident backing Boise State as low as a pick 'em here. It won't be a cakewalk like their first two games, but they should get the win nonetheless.

Old Dominion -1 Charlotte
I'm giving the Monarchs one more chance. If they blow this game as a short favorite, they are dead to me. I was on them last week against Florida International and after jumping out to a 17-0 lead, their offense floundered, the game was delayed nearly two hours by lightning, and they eventually fell 28-20 to drop them to 0-2. There are some bad teams in Conference USA (and Old Dominion is probably one of them) so a bowl game is still on the table, but they must beat the woeful 49ers if they have any designs on the postseason. Since joining Conference USA in 2014, Old Dominion is a solid 4-2 ATS as a road favorite and Charlotte is not used to delivering wins in front of their home fans. The 49ers are 5-8-1 ATS as a home underdog since joining FBS in 2015 and they have won just once at home against an FBS foe (it was UAB if you were curious). Old Dominion is the better team and should be able to cover this small number.

Tulsa +2 Arkansas State
Arkansas State makes the trip to Tulsa, Oklahoma fresh off a curb stomping in Tuscaloosa. The Red Wolves were a popular pick to cover the more than five touchdown spread against the Crimson Tide, but Alabama led by forty at halftime and held on to win 57-7. Arkansas State is still a legitimate contender in the Sun Belt, but that can't be good for a team's confidence. Tulsa fared a little better in their road trip against a traditional college football power. The Golden Hurricane fell behind Texas 21-0, but quietly staged a second half comeback and eventually lost by just seven points in a game where they never really threatened to win. Through two games, Tulsa appears to be improved, particularly on defense, from the horror show that was 2017. Last season Tulsa finished just 2-10 and for the season allowed an average of 7.3 yards per play (only East Carolina allowed more). I would never call this unit 'good' at defense, but with their offensive firepower, they merely need to be competent to get back to a bowl game. Tulsa has done very well at home under Phillip Montgomery against fellow Group of Five teams, posting a 4-1 record with three of the four wins coming by double-digits. Meanwhile, under Blake Anderson, Arkansas State has treated road non-conference games like preseason games. They are 0-9 in such contests, including 0-3 against Group of Five opponents, with each loss coming by at least two touchdowns. The wrong team is favored here. Take Tulsa to cover, win outright, and match last season's win total.

Purdue +7.5 Missouri
After winning seven games for just the second time in a decade last season, Purdue has stumbled out of the starting blocks in 2018. The Boilermakers have dropped their first two games by a combined five points despite outgaining Northwestern and Eastern Michigan by over 100 combined yards and beating them on a per play basis by more than a full yard. Turnovers (-5 margin), missed kicks (especially an extra point), and ill-timed defensive personal fouls have pushed the Boilermakers into desperation mode. Their final ten games are all against Power Five teams, so if the Boilermakers have designs on a second consecutive bowl game, they now have almost no margin for error. Meanwhile, Missouri enters this game having won eight consecutive regular season games while posting at least 40 in each contest. We'll conveniently ignore the bowl game for the moment as that streak is still impressive. Last week, Missouri throttled a Wyoming team that was expected to be solid entering the season. However, early returns, particularly on offense, have not been great. After scoring 29 points in a Week Zero win against New Mexico State, the Cowboys have only been able to muster a combined 32 points in their next two games. Purdue will represent a significant challenge for the Missouri defense. Despite only managing 19 points in their loss to Eastern Michigan last week, the Boilermakers averaged over seven yards per play. The wet conditions certainly contributed to their inability to finish drives against the Eagles. Purdue will be very dangerous if they can turn that per play efficiency into more touchdowns. One additional thing to consider regarding this game is last year's result. Remember, last season the Boilermakers went into Columbia as a about a touchdown underdog and crushed Missouri 35-3. I wouldn't expect such a lopsided margin here, but Purdue has been fantastic as an underdog under Jeff Brohm, posting a 5-2 ATS mark with three outright upsets. Plus, Missouri has not exactly been a road dynamo under Barry Odom, posting a 3-7 straight up record with the wins coming against Arkansas, Connecticut, and Vanderbilt. Back the Boilermakers here.