Thursday, October 11, 2007

From BCS to Bowl-less

This is the 10th year of the BCS in college football. From 1998-2005 64 teams participated in BCS bowl games. 9 teams have failed to participate in any type of bowl game in the season following a BCS bowl game appearance. This season, certainly one and possibly two or three teams look poised to join that illustrious group. Should we have seen any of these collapses coming? The table below lists the averages for all 64 BCS bowl game participants in points scored, points allowed, and scoring margin, the same numbers for the 55 BCS bowl game participants who returned to bowl games the following season, and finally the same numbers for three teams that may struggle to get back to a bowl game this year; Louisville, Notre Dame and my alma mater Wake Forest.

The numbers bear the facts out. Notre Dame and especially Wake Forest were well below average compared to other BCS bowl game participants, especially Wake Forest in regards to offensive aptitude. Their decline was expected, at least in regard to last season's success by most preseason prognostications, although Notre Dame's tremendous tumble was not anticipated. Louisville though is the big head-scratcher. The Cardinals were better than the average BCS bowl game participant and yet here they are with only two wins in five games against Division IA teams. With four road games left on the slate, the Cardinals have a real chance at ending the season out of the bowl picture. This would be the biggest fall from grace since Ohio State in 1999. The 9 teams who went from BCS bowl to no postseason the next year?

Ohio State 1998-1999
UCLA 1998-1999
Stanford 1999-2000
Alabama 1999-2000
Oregon State 2000-2001
Notre Dame 2000-2001
Illinois 2001-2002
Kansas State 2003-2004
Pitt 2004-2005

Coming next week, an analysis of these 9 teams and what happened the year after. That, ladies and gentlemen, is what is known as a tease.

Do we get a do-over?

No comments: