2017 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Conference USA

Last week, we looked at how Conference USA teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2017 Conference USA standings.

And here are the APR standings sorted by division with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Conference USA teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

I use a game and a half as a line of demarcation to determine if teams drastically over or under perform their APR. By that standard three teams (North Texas, Florida International, and Old Dominion) exceeded their expected record and two (Marshall and Rice) finished with fewer wins than we would expect given their APR. North Texas and Florida International also finished with more wins than we might expect based on YPP and we discussed why last week. What about Old Dominion? How did they exceed their expected record? Old Dominion posted a decent record in close conference games, winning three of five, but the Monarchs finished with a poor APR because they were blown out often. The Monarchs lost three conference games by at least thirty points. Consistently finishing on the wrong end of blowouts typically indicates a team is not very good (groundbreaking analysis) and the Monarchs were no stranger to that in 2017. On the other side of things, Rice also finished with fewer wins than we would expect based on YPP and we discussed some reasons for that last week. But why did Marshall underperform? The Thundering Herd finished 1-3 in close conference games, with their last two losses coming by a combined three points. They also finished second to last in the league with an in-conference turnover margin of -6. Switch a few plays here and there, and the Herd finish with double-digit wins.

Last week, we talked about teams that improved significantly, and what to expect from them moving forward. Conference USA had the distinction of featuring two teams that won at least four more conference games in 2017 than they had in 2016. The conference was also home to a team that lost four more conference games in 2017 than it did in 2016. Old Dominion finished the 2016 season with a 7-1 conference record. Their head-to-head loss to Western Kentucky meant they were denied a shot at the conference title, but this was still a phenomenal season for a team that did not exist a decade ago. In 2017, the Monarchs finished just 3-5 on Conference USA. Which result are we more likely to see in 2018? Are the Monarchs likely to bounce back or should Old Dominion fans get used to finishing with more losses than wins? To answer that question, I examined every mid-major (non BCS or Group of Five) team that lost at least four additional conference games than they had the previous season since 2005. This query yielded 30 teams, not including the four that experienced this regression in 2017 (in addition to Old Dominion, New Mexico, Tulsa, and Western Michigan also lost at least four more conference games in 2017 than they had in 2016). How did those 30 teams perform the following season? The results are summarized below.

More than 70% of those teams saw their conference record improve the following season and exactly half improved their conference record by at least two games. Only ten percent saw their conference record further erode and about 17% finished with the same conference record. Overall, the average team improved by 1.75 conference wins.

Old Dominion did outperform their APR by over one and a half wins in 2017, which typically portends regression the following season. Their large number of blowout losses (including non-conference games, the Monarchs lost five times by at least thirty points) also concerns me when projecting their 2018 record. However, as evidenced by similar mid-major squads that suffered dramatic one-year declines, improvement is hardly out of the question. The Monarchs have a quality head coach and dealt with a host of injuries last season. I wouldn’t expect another co-division title, but a return to postseason play is certainly within reach.