Monday, January 10, 2022

Strangers in the Field Part VI: How'd We Do?

The college football season is over and the NFL regular season has finally ended as well. Let's take a look back and see how our predictions went. 

College Football Plays

Over/Under Win Totals

Air Force over 6.5 wins -125 ($50 to win $40)
This one was an easy winner. The Falcons won nine games in the regular season and were not particularly lucky in doing so (2-3 record in close games). 

Ball State under 7.5 wins -120 ($50 to win $41.65)
It looked like this one might be in trouble when Ball State won three in a row (two as an underdog) after a 1-4 start, but the Cardinals finished 6-6, giving me a one game buffer. 

Buffalo under 7.5 wins -145 ($50 to win $34.50)
Buffalo lost their last four games to finish 4-8 and make this an easy winner. 

Navy over 3.5 wins -105 ($50 to win $47.60)
This bet was not decided until the annual clash with Army, but thankfully the Midshipmen won their fourth game and pulled off their third upset of the year to cash this ticket. 

San Diego State over 6.5 wins -120 ($50 to win $41.65)
Over the summer, I said San Diego State had a shot at starting 9-0 before a road trip to Nevada. I was a little off. San Diego State won their first six games and easily cashed this ticket before Halloween. 

TCU over 7.5 wins -125 ($50 to win $40)
I only missed one standard college football over/under win total, but it was a pretty big whiff. This bet was dead and buried when TCU lost at home to SMU. The Horned Frogs had one of their worst defenses in school history and Gary Patterson did not finish the season. 

Over/Under Conference Win Totals

Coastal Carolina under 7.5 Sun Belt wins -135 ($100 to win $74.05)
The Chanticleers lost to Appalachian State on a last second field goal and also dropped a shootout to Georgia State to come safely below this number. 

East Carolina over 2.5 AAC wins -135 ($100 to win $74.05)
The Pirates doubled their expected conference wins, and while a few of them were close (beat Memphis and Navy by a combined four points), they also dropped a pair of tight games to Houston and UCF (margin of eleven points in those defeats).

Florida International over 2.5 CUSA wins +100 ($40 to win $40)
This was another big whiff. The Panthers lost all eight of their CUSA games by double digits. 

Indiana under 5 Big 10 wins -110 ($40 to win $36.35)
The easiest winner I ever had. The Hoosiers did not win a single Big 10 game. 

Marshall under 7 CUSA wins -140 ($100 to win $71.45)
Another easy winner. Marshall dropped their CUSA opener to clinch a push and then lost twice more for good measure. 

Middle Tennessee State over 2.5 CUSA wins -110 ($100 to win $90.90)
The Blue Raiders finished 4-4 in CUSA play with three of those four wins coming by double digits. 

Mississippi State over 2.5 SEC wins +100 ($40 to win $40)
This bet looked dicey after Mississippi State opened SEC play with a home loss to LSU, but they got back on track by winning at Texas A&M the next week and went over this number with some extra cushion.

Navy over 1.5 AAC wins -145 ($100 to win $68.95)
I double dipped on the Naval Academy and that worked out. Navy doubled their expected AAC wins. 

Ohio over 4.5 MAC wins +100 ($40 to win $40)
I'm embarrassed to say I had no idea Frank Solich had retired when I made this bet. Ohio started out 0-4 in non-conference play and this looked like a sure loser. The Bobcats played better once conference play began and at 3-3 in MAC play I held out hope they could get this ticket home. Alas, they lost to their last two finish well below their win total. 

Wyoming over 4.5 Mountain West wins ($40 to win $26.65)
I keep expecting big things from Wyoming and they continue to not deliver. The Cowboys went just 2-6 in Mountain West play to fall well below this number. 

College Football Futures

Appalachian State to win Sun Belt +350 ($10 to win $35)
The Mountaineers made it to the Sun Belt Championship Game and were even a slight favorite against Louisiana-Lafayette. Alas, the Ragin' Cajuns defense was too strong. 

Ohio to win the MAC +600 ($10 to win $60)
Once again, I did not know Frank Solich had retired when I made this bet. Ohio did not come close to winning the MAC. 

NFL Playoffs Yes/No

Atlanta Falcons YES +250 ($10 to win $25)
The Falcons were a horrible team by any metric, yet their close game luck from the past few seasons turned around and they were in the playoff chase until the penultimate Sunday. 

Baltimore Ravens YES -320 ($200 to win $62.50)
Ugh. Injuries and failed two point conversions will haunt me this offseason. 

Los Angeles Rams NO +160 ($10 to win $16)
Stafford played well with the talent surrounding him in LA. I was wrong. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers NO +450 ($10 to win $45)
Tom Brady defies Father Time yet again. 

NFL Over/Under Win Totals

Atlanta Falcons over 7.5 wins -120 ($30 to win $25)
As I mentioned earlier, the Falcons were bad. Yet they somehow managed to come within an eyelash of going over their win total thanks to fantastic luck in close games. 

Los Angeles Rams under 10.5 wins -130 ($20 to win $15.40)
When the Rams dropped three in a row to fall to 7-4, I thought this one had a shot. Alas, the Rams won three tough road games in December and January (Arizona, Minnesota, and Baltimore) to easily go over this total. 

Washington Football Team under 8.5 wins -125 ($20 to win $16)
This one looked like an easy winner when Washington started 2-6. Then a four game winning streak made it dicey. Thankfully, Washington returned to their early season roots and came in below this number with a game to spare. 

NFL Division Futures

New York Giants to win NFC East +400 ($10 to win $40)
Making predictions causes you to look real dumb sometimes. Gambling is a great way to stay humble. 

Seattle Seahawks to win NFC West +325 ($10 to win $32.50)
Russell Wilson has his first losing season. Perhaps I put the hex on him. 

Reckless Parlays

College Football ($10 to win $750 -- all must be correct)

Army +2.5 Georgia State -- Easy winner. 
Kansas State +1.5 Stanford @ Arlington -- Winner. 
Rice +20.5 Arkansas -- Arkansas was down early, but they came back to cover. 
Navy +3 Marshall -- Easy loser. 
Georgia +4 Clemson @ Charlotte -- Winner. 
Northern Illinois +17 Georgia Tech -- Easy Winner. 
Southern Miss -1.5 South Alabama Easy loser. 

To paraphrase Meatloaf, four out of seven ain't bad. But it doesn't cash. 

NFL ($10 to win $60 -- all must be correct)

Atlanta -4 Philadelphia -- Loser. 
New York Giants pick Denver -- Loser.
Chicago Bears +7 Los Angeles Rams -- Loser. 

So how did we do? Well, we killed it on the college football plays, going 12-4 on the over/unders. The NFL was much less kind. The only bet we hit was the under for the Washington Football Team. Still, it was a profitable trip. 

Money Wagered: $1360
Money Won: $1527.15
Return on Investment: 12.29%

Thanks for reading. We'll be back on Thursday with the first of our offseason recaps. 

No comments: