The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

We in fact, did not start October strong. Let's see if we can bounce back.       

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 17-17-1

Wyoming +6 San Jose State

I'm always wary backing Wyoming away from Laramie. Under head coach Jay Sawvel, the Cowboys are just 3-12 straight up in true road games, including 0-3 this season. However, I don't think this line is properly accounting for the brutal travel spot the home team occupies. The Spartans played at Hawaii last week and upset the Rainbow Warriors while improving to 3-2 on the season. Now they have to travel back to San Jose and face a conference rival on a short week. Since 2021, fourteen FBS teams have traveled to Hawaii and then played another game against an FBS opponent the following week. Those teams are 6-8 straight up, but 3-11 ATS. Favorites performed a bit better, posting a 6-3 straight up record, but they were just 3-6 ATS. The sample size is small, but this line is probably inflated by a point or two. In addition, while Wyoming has been quite poor in road games the past few seasons, San Jose State does not have the offensive firepower to run away and hide. The Spartans have not scored more than 27 points against an FBS team this season. I expect this to be an ugly game that is played in the high teens or low twenties. As the Cowboys are catching nearly a full touchdown, they are the play. 

North Carolina +3.5 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh upset Virginia Tech last week to move to 5-0 and makes themselves a player in the ACC conference race. However, in the process, they also lost their starting quarterback Mason Heintschel to a season ending injury. Holden Geriner came in and played well in relief in the upset win. Geriner previously saw limited action for Auburn and Texas State, so this game against North Carolina will be the first extended action of his career. I think Bill Belichick, even an aged, Belichick, can concoct a gameplan to induce some turnovers from the old, but inexperienced quarterback. Pitt was also very fortunate to win the game against the Hokies irrespective of their quarterback injuries. The Panthers were outgained by 200 yards and averaged two fewer yards per play than the Hokies. However, they were +4 in the turnover margin. Even with the turnover advantage, Virginia Tech still had to miss a very makeable field goal to keep Pitt unbeaten. North Carolina has been better than expected this season, beating TCU in Ireland, having Clemson on the ropes in Death Valley, and acquitting themselves reasonably well against Notre Dame. A bowl game is not out of the question and the only surefire loss remaining on the schedule is against Miami. I expect the Tar Heels to be play well and keep this game within a field goal. The series history also seems to favor North Carolina. The Panthers are just 3-6 against the Tar Heels under Pat Narduzzi, including 2-3 in Pittsburgh.

Vanderbilt +9.5 Ole Miss

After the 2023 season, Clark Lea threw up his own Hail Mary and imported various pieces of the New Mexico State team to Nashville. The most famous of those pieces was Heisman finalist Diego Pavia, but he was not the only one. Two of the more important additions don't play at all. New Mexico State head coach, and all around revitalization expert, Jerry Kill has been a consultant since 2024 and Tim Beck (not the former Coastal Carolina coach) has been the offensive coordinator for the same amount of time. Kill and Beck have made the Commodores dangerous underdogs. Vanderbilt plays slow, runs the ball, and goes for it on fourth down a lot. In Clark Lea's first three season, Vanderbilt was 12-17 ATS as an underdog, with three outright wins. Since the start of the 2024 season, Vanderbilt is 12-3-1 ATS with seven outright wins. Those splits hold when catching more than a touchdown (as they are in this spot). In Lea's first three seasons, the Commodores were 11-16 ATS with two outright wins. Since the import, they are 9-2 ATS with four outright wins. The Commodores have covered both games they entered as an underdog this season, playing an even game with Auburn on The Plains, but losing thanks to a blocked punt touchdown and covering as a massive underdog between the hedges in Athens. Ole Miss has the more dynamic offense, but their defense has issues. Teams not named Charlotte have scored 114 points on the Rebels in three games. Its hard to win by margin when the defense doesn't get any stops. A two touchdown lead late for Ole Miss will not be safe as the backdoor should be wide open for Vanderbilt to step through. 

Illinois -2.5 Michigan State

This one almost seems too easy right? Michigan State has been listless since opening the season with victories against two MAC schools. The Spartans have scored 26 total points in their past three games and head coach Pat Fitzgerald is on a personal twelve game losing skid against power conference opponents. That streak runs to eighteen games in the continental United States (last win against Nebraska in Ireland). Illinois is desperate, having lost their past three games to FBS teams, including upset home losses to Duke and Purdue. There are three ranked teams remaining on the schedule as well as an ascendant Northwestern and an unbeaten Nebraska, so the Illini are very much in danger of missing out on a bowl game altogether. If Illinois is able to score in the mid-20s, which I expect they will with their potent offense, Michigan State should not be able to keep up. 

Rice +10 East Carolina

The Owls have followed the Pirates to bigger and better conferences over the the past couple of decades. Rice joined Conference USA in 2005, eight seasons after the Pirates gave up their life of Independence in 1997. East Carolina left Conference USA in 2014 and joined the American. Rice hung out in the Conference USA wasteland for nearly another decade before joining the Pirates once again. The teams have only met once as American opponents, with Rice winning by seven in Houston in 2023. Things are very different now, with the Owls on a new coach and operating a variant of the option (to not great success). East Carolina is also led by a different head coach. Blake Harrell is the lead privateer after a solid first full season in charge, regression seems to have boarded the ship. The Pirates slipped by Old Dominion in Norfolk a few weeks ago and pounded North Carolina Central in their last game, but the offense has floundered, scoring 24 points or less in all three games against FBS competition. Despite their lack of success, Rice will keep the ball on the ground and reduce the number of possessions in this game, something one should look for in an underdog. The Pirates don't have the offense to put this game away, and I expect Rice to do enough to stay within striking distance. 

North Dakota State -3 UNLV

So far, FBS life has been easy for the Bison. After dominating FCS for the better part of two decades, North Dakota State made the decision to join the Mountain West in 2026. The decision came as a bit of a surprise, at least in its suddenness, but the results have been great thus far. The Bison are 5-0 and have won four of their games by double digits. They probably need the teams ahead of them in the Group Of Six pecking order to lose (Boise State and perhaps James Madison and Memphis), but they have a realistic shot to make the College Football Playoff in their first year at the highest level of the sport. Their opponent on Saturday likely felt the Mountain West was theirs for the taking in 2026. Long a college football wasteland, UNLV has put three consecutive good seasons together only to be foiled by Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game three straight times. With the Broncos off to the reconstituted Pac-12, there was no conference overlord to hold them down. The Rebels opened the season a somewhat disappointing 1-2, but have looked the part offensively over their past two games, scoring 77 combined points in wins against Akron and Cal. While the offense is probably better than it showed in the first three games (48 total points), the Zips and Bears are not the strongest of FBS defenses. North Dakota State likely represents the best defense UNLV has faced thus far this season (depending on your opinion of Memphis) and is a major step up from Akron and Cal. I don't think the betting market realizes how good North Dakota State is. I expected them to be laying closer to a touchdown in this spot. Take them laying this small number in Sin City. 

UTEP +9 Nevada

This game (that is somehow on FS1 and not MW+) might be a loser leaves town match for the head coaches. Both Jeff Choate (Nevada) and Scott Walden (UTEP) are in their third season at their respective schools and despite some optimism, things are bad. Nevada opened the Choate era by nearly beating eventual College Football Playoff participant SMU as a four touchdown underdog. They followed that up by beating the defending Sun Belt champion (Troy) on the road. However, since that 1-1 start, they are just 6-21 overall, having dropped their past three games after beating Western Kentucky in their opener this season. Meanwhile, for UTEP, the optimism was more in the hire itself. Scotty Walden was a coach in his mid-30's who had guided Austin Peay to four consecutive winning seasons and one FCS playoff appearance. Thus far in El Paso, he is 6-23 with two of those wins coming against FCS teams. These teams are bad, but they are pretty close in quality. I don't understand why Nevada is nearly a double digit road favorite. Their victory against Western Kentucky has not aged well (the Hilltoppers have not won an FBS game) and neither has their loss to Middle Tennessee State (Nevada is their only FBS win). Nevada did lose a close game to a very good FCS team (Montana State) and also fell in overtime to Air Force, but both those games came at home. UTEP has had a much tougher schedule, losing to Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Oregon State. None of the losses were particularly close, but those teams are not in UTEP's weight class. If you squint, you can see some good things coming for UTEP. Four of their next five games are at home and the Mountain West has some bad teams at the bottom. I wouldn't be shocked if UTEP won this game outright postponed the inevitable. Walden will save his job temporarily before the UTEP administration eventually Thoreaus him out (I apologize for that one).