2010 Pac-10 SDPI

This week, we'll try to shed out East Coast bias as we head out west to take a look at the Pac-10, another league that will be getting a makeover in 2012. Once again, for a primer, here is the link to last year's Pac-10 post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Pac-10 regular season, conference play only, the average Pac-10 team gained and allowed 3533.5 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 661.93 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 359.76 yards. Cal gained 2629 yards and allowed 3010 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -1.37 = [(2629-3533.5)/661.93]. Their defensive SDPI was 1.46 = [(3533.5-3010)/359.76]. Their total SDPI was 0.09. This number ranked 6th in the Pac-10.

Here are the 2010 Pac-10 standings.Now here are the 2010 Pac-10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 10 teams) in parentheses.The Pac-10 produced a BCS National Championship Game participant, as well as a second BCS team in 2010, but may have suffered a bit in terms of national perception thanks to the fact that only four of the ten (Southern Cal had enough wins, but were banned from the postseason) conference teams attained bowl eligibility. The Pac-10 became the first BCS conference since the 2005 Big East to send fewer than five teams to bowl games. The 2010 Pac-10 was a top-heavy league. Oregon and Stanford dominated their peers out west, going 16-0 against the other eight schools with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points per game!

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
For the second year in a row, the Arizona State Sun Devils played better than their won/loss record showed. The Sun Devils were a shade above average on both sides of the ball, and should have probably finished with an extra league win, which would have gotten them to their first bowl game since 2007. However, the Sun Devils turned the ball over more than any Pac-10 team save UCLA and finished 1-3 in one-score conference games, resigning them to a third straight year of watching the postseason in Tempe.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
They may have closed the season with a nice hot streak, winning their final three regular season games, and upset a top-20 outfit in their bowl game, but Washington was still not quite ready for prime time. Four of their five league wins came by a touchdown or less (combined margin of 12 points), while each of their four losses came by at least 10 points (average margin of 29.5 points per game). The Huskies were slightly below average on both sides of the ball in 2010, so while their first postseason game since 2002 (and first win since 2000) is a nice bullet on Steve Sarkisian's resume, the rebuild ain't over yet.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Oregon 1.63
Chip Kelly's spread and shred topped the Pac-10 in offense for the fourth straight year! The Ducks were number one out west when Kelly was the offensive coordinator in 2007 and 2008, and have done nothing but continue that success since he assumed the head coaching role prior to the 2009 season.

Worst Offense: Cal -1.37
Guess who is taking back the play-calling duties in Berkeley? Jeff Tedford has tutored many a fine collegiate quarterback, but 2010 represented rock bottom for the Golden Bears as they were held below 300 yards of offense in two thirds of their conference games. That's quite a shame too, considering how good their defense was.

Best Defense: Cal 1.46
Speak of the devil. Southern Cal and Stanford maimed the Golden Bears to the tune of 1069 total yards and 96 total points. In their other seven league games, Cal held the opposition to an average of 277 yards and 16 points per game.

Worst Defense: Washington State -1.94
The Cougars have now finished dead last in the Pac-10 in defense for three straight seasons and for four of the six years of the SDPI era (2005-2010).

Washington State: From Worse to Bad
To say the Washington State Cougars have been stuck in a rut under head coach Paul Wulff would be putting it very mildly. In Wulff's three seasons, the Cougars have beaten just three IA schools, and have lost by at least 30 points 16 times! However, the Cougars did show a few signs of life in 2010. They beat a Pac-10 team for the first time since their (Cr)Apple Cup win over Washington in 2008 and were competitive in several losses (losing one score games to Washington and Cal and staying within two touchdowns of Stanford and UCLA). The following table will show you just how far the Cougars have come since Wulff's first season. As you can see, the Cougars were historically bad in 2008. They scored eight total offensive touchdowns in their nine conference games while allowing 59! To put that number in perspective, consider this: If we take away field goals, safeties, and non-offensive touchdowns and then assume each offensive touchdown scored by Washington State is worth seven points, while each offensive touchdown scored by their opponents is only worth a single point, the Cougars would still have been outscored in 2008! They improved a little in 2009, primarily on the defensive side of the ball where they shaved off more than a quarter of their touchdowns allowed. In 2010, they went from historically inept to merely last-place bad. They actually managed to scored touchdowns on a semi-regular basis while cutting into their touchdowns allowed slightly. The Cougars have hopes to be more competitive in 2011, as their junior quarterback Jeff Tuel posted solid numbers as a sophomore (nearly 60% completion rate, 18 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions), and sophomore receiver Marquess Wilson topped 1000 yards through the air as a freshman. A bowl game is probably out of the question, but Pullman could no longer be a punchline.

2010 Big 12 SDPI

The Big 12 will have a new look in 2011 with two fewer teams and one fewer championship game. However, before we bring the curtain down on the old Big 12, let's take one last look at this past season with SDPI. For a primer, here's the link to last year's SDPI post on the Big 12.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Big 12 regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average Big 12 team gained and allowed 3256.25 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 616.65 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 506.61 yards. Colorado gained 2923 yards and allowed 3453 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.54 = [(2923-3256.25)/616.65]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.39 = [(3256.25-3453)/506.61]. Their total SDPI was -0.93. This number ranked 9th in the Big 12.

Here are the 2010 Big 12 standings.Now here are the 2010 Big 12 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.At the top of the standings the 2010 season played out according to the SDPI ratings. The top-ranked team from the North Division (Nebraska) met the top-ranked team from the South Division (Oklahoma), with the top-ranked overall team (Oklahoma) emerging victorious. Elsewhere in Big 12 land, the Longhorns, Big 12 Champions and BCS National Championship Game participants in 2009, failed to qualify for the postseason, suffering their first losing record since 1997.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
This one is pretty easy to answer. Despite their 2-6 conference record, and cellar finish in the Big 12 South, Texas was actually a solid team on a down-to-down basis. Behind defensive coordinator Will Muschamp (now the head man at Florida), the Longhorns remained stout on the defensive side of the ball, ranking behind only Nebraska for top honors in the Big 12. The offense understandably suffered a decline with the loss of Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley, but was just a shade below average. All things being equal, a 5-3, or at worse 4-4 league record should have been expected. However, the Longhorns turnover margin hampered any chance they had of competing in the Big 12 South. The Longhorns forced fewer turnovers (11) than all but two Big 12 teams, and they committed the most turnovers (23) by far of any team. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert was mostly to blame, throwing 16 interceptions in eight league games. However, going forward Gilbert has the recruiting pedigree to be a star, and lets not forget his predecessor, Mr. McCoy, also had a bit of an interception problem as a sophomore.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Outside of Texas, there wasn't a great deal of disconnect between the actual standings and the SDPI ratings, but Missouri's underlying performance was not quite as strong as their division title (share) would indicate. The Tigers were a little below average on offense (hard to believe after their record breaking years under Chase Daniel) and above average on defense, making them a little better than average overall. The Tigers appeared to falter down the stretch (outside of their finale against an awful Kansas team) which brought their overall rating down. Through their first three games league games they outgained their league foes (including South Division co-champs Texas A&M and Oklahoma) by 52 yards per game. In their next four games (before their throttling of Kansas), the Tigers were outgained by 53 yards per contest.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Oklahoma State 1.48
In his first year as offensive coordinator for the Cowboys, Dana Holgorsen helped lead the Cowboys to a share of the Big 12 South title when most of the preseason prognosticators had called for a last place finish. You'll see him coordinating the West Virginia offense in 2011 and then in the head man's chair in 2012.

Worst Offense: Kansas -1.76
2007 is officially ancient history. In Turner Gill's first season, the Jayhawks were held below 300 yards in five of their eight league games. They did somehow manage to roll up 453 yards in their lone win over Colorado. However, just to show they didn't want to raise expectations heading into 2011, they gained 87 yards the next week versus Nebraska.

Best Defense: Nebraska 1.61
Bo Pelini does it again. In his three seasons as the Nebraska coach, the Cornhuskers have finished second, second, and first in the Big 12 in defense. The year before he arrived, they were dead last.

Worst Defense: Kansas -1.32
Yep 2007 is ancient history. if you're looking for bright spots, the Jayhawks performed much better in games against their division rivals in the North (426 yards per game allowed) than they did against teams from the South (599 yards per game allowed).

Texas Tech: Is the Offense Passing Away?
Mike Leach did several things during his decade-long run as head coach at Texas Tech. His teams always put up eye-popping offensive numbers, he presided over the most consistent run of success in Texas Tech history, and he may have locked Adam James in a shed. That last lapse in judgment got him fired, but what does it mean for the Texas Tech program? One year after his ouster, the program appears to have taken a step back. This past year, the Red Raiders posted their first losing season in Big 12 play since 2000, and for the first time since I have been calculating SDPI numbers (2005), the offense did not rank either first or second in the Big 12. In fact at just 0.20 standard deviations above average, the offense was about as un-Leach, at least in results, if not input as it could possibly be. Of course, a precursory glance at the numbers could tell you the offense declined, but exactly how much did it decline in relation to the rest of the conference? To answer this question, I looked at the passing numbers posted by Texas Tech in Big 12 play only for the past five seasons. The raw numbers as well as Tech's rank in the Big 12 in three key passing categories (completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, and passer rating) are included in the table below. The Red Raiders not only declined in raw statistics, but also in their rank within the conference. This decline was also across the board. After ranking either first or second in completion percentage in the conference in each of Leach's last four seasons, the Red Raiders fell to fifth in 2010. An even further descent occurred in yards per pass, where the Red Raiders fell to ninth and passer rating where they fell to eighth. Not only did the Red Raiders decline in every significant passing category, but outside of completion percentage, they were below average throwing the football! Head coach Tommy Tuberville and offensive coordinator Neal Brown did have the excuse that the system, while not new, was at least somewhat different from what Leach ran. However, they did not have the excuse that the personnel was different. Quarterback Taylor Potts was a senior who threw nearly 500 passes as a junior in 2009. In addition, their top-five receivers from 2009 all returned for duty in 2010. The Red Raiders do not have that luxury in 2011. Taylor Potts has exhausted his eligibility as have last season's top-two receivers, Lyle Leong and Detron Lewis. With that attrition on offense, the Red Raiders may fade further into the offensive abyss in the Big 12.

2010 Big 10 SDPI

Thus far we have examined the 2010 ACC and Big East races through the refractive lens of SDPI. We now turn our attention to a league that will be getting a makeover when the 2011 season starts, the Big 10. Here is the link to last year's Big 10 post if you are so inclined.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Big 10 regular season, conference play only, the average Big 10 team gained and allowed 3034.91 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 410.32 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 478.90 yards. Iowa gained 2770 yards and allowed 2895 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.65 = [(2770-3034.91)/410.32]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.29 = [(3034.91-2895)/478.90]. Their total SDPI was -0.35. This number ranked 7th in the Big 10.

Here are the 2010 Big 10 standings.
Now here are the 2010 Big 10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 11 teams) in parentheses.
While there was three-way ties at the top of the league standings, SDPI sees through the pseudo-reality and rightly crowns Ohio State as the King of the Midwest. Ohio State's lone league loss came on the road at SDPI runner-up Wisconsin. The good news going forward is that there will no longer be any more three-way ties (at least not for the privilege of representing the conference in the BCS, it could still be possible when it comes to representing the conference in the Big 10 Championship Game). Leaders and Legends, rejoice!

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
How about Illinois? The Illini actually rated out slightly better than co-champ Michigan State. Yet somehow, the Illini did not even manage a winning record in Big 10 play. How can this be? The usual suspect, turnovers, cannot be blamed for this one. The Illini actually had a solid differential of +8 in league play. The culprit here is clutch play in tight games. The Illini played in just two conference games decided by less than a touchdown. They lost them both. Contrast that to their four league wins that each came by at least 20 points. If lady luck had been more partial to the Illini, they could well be talked about as a potential darkhorse candidate to capture the inaugural Big 10 Leaders Division.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
No Big 10 teams exceedingly outperformed their SDPI numbers in 2010, but if we must choose one team that was not quite as good as their record indicated, it would have to be Michigan State. While they were a shade below average on offense, the Spartans boasted the best defense in the conference this side of Ohio State. They were able to hoist (at least a share of) their first conference crown since 1987 thanks to their unblemished mark in one-score games. The Spartans were also the beneficiary of a schedule that did not include league overlord Ohio State. The Spartans proved they were not quite ready for prime time in their two losses, when they were embarrassed by a solid, but not spectacular Iowa team and again by Crimson Tide, who took out their Iron Bowl frustrations on them in the Capital One Bowl (outscored by a combined 73 points in those two games).

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Michigan 1.77
In his swan song at Ann Arbor, Rich Rod finally fixed the offense. We'll see in a minute why despite this success, he is no longer employed.

Worst Offense: Purdue -1.93
The Boilermakers won their first two league games during which they averaged 336 yards and 24 points per game. They lost their last six during which they averaged 262 yards and 16.8 points per game.

Best Defense: Ohio State 2.06
The Buckeyes held six of their eight league opponents under 300 yards. Michigan gouged them the most with 351 yards. Had the Buckeyes allowed that many in every game, they still would have owned the third best defense in the league.

Worst Defense: Michigan -1.55
Outside of a solid showing against Purdue (256 yards allowed), the Wolverines were incapable of stopping any team. Somewhere, Lloyd Carr is smiling.

Leaders Versus Legends: Balanced Divisions?
The Big 10 will be undergoing a dramatic shift beginning in 2011 when they add the Nebraska Cornhuskers from the Big 12. The addition of Nebraska means the Big 10 will move to a division format and stage a championship game the first weekend in December to determine which teams earns the conference's automatic BCS bowl bid. The names of the divisions, Leaders and Legends, leave a little to be desired, but as a famous poet and playwright once said, what's in a name? The real question is, are the divisions balanced, or will it play out like the Big 12 where the South division winner emerged victorious in the Big 12 Championship Game nine of the last eleven years. On the surface, it appears the Leaders Division, consisting of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin would be the stronger of the two. Ohio State is the preeminent program in the conference, while Penn State and Wisconsin have shared the conference crown with the Buckeyes twice in the last three seasons. However, when we look at how the teams have fared versus teams slated to be in the opposite division over the past four seasons, we can see that outside of Ohio State, the Legends have held their own against the Leaders. The Leaders do have a 10-game edge in games played between what will soon be the two divisions since 2007, but if we remove Ohio State and their pristine, unblemished record, the Legends are actually 43-39 against the Leaders. Combine with that the fact that the Legends will be adding a Nebraska team that has won their division in the Big 12 the past two seasons, and the divisions are much more balanced than they appear at first glance.

2010 Big East SDPI

After reviewing the ACC last week, we now turn our attention to the Big East. The Big East ended the 2010 season without a single team ranked in the AP Poll, and also had the indignity of having its champion lose to Temple. if you're interested in mocking me, here's the link to last year's Big East post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Big East regular season, conference play only, the average Big East team gained and allowed 2280 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 371.84 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 433.51 yards. Louisville gained 2203 yards and allowed 2009 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.21 = [(2203-2280)/371.84]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.63 = [(2280-2009)/433.51]. Their total SDPI was 0.42. This number ranked 4th in the Big East.

Here are the 2010 Big East standings.
Now here are the 2010 Big East SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 8 teams) in parentheses.Connecticut became one of the most unlikely BCS bowl participants ever by winning their final five league games after an 0-2 start and ending the reign of two-time defensing champ Cincinnati. Pittsburgh and West Virginia were bridesmaids once again. Beginning in 2008, both the Mountaineers and Panthers have finished either tied for second or first place, but have yet to play in a BCS bowl.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Based on SDPI, Cincinnati should have been one of the top teams in the Big East. The Bearcats boasted the top-ranked offense in the conference, and despite their poor showing on the defensive end, one would have expected them to at least finish with a winning record. Unfortunately for the kings of the Queen City, the Bearcats had a proclivity for turning the ball over and failed in their endeavor to take the ball away from their opponents.The Bearcats committed the most turnovers in the conference by far (averaging three per game) and forced the second fewest. When that happens even the best of teams will struggle to win games, and coupled with the Bearcats other defensive inefficiencies, it made for a long season for the defending Big East champs.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Obviously the team with the biggest discrepancy between their conference record and their SDPI numbers was league champion Connecticut. The Huskies won the Big East, but were statistically one of the weakest teams in the conference, and became arguably the weakest team to ever qualify for a BCS bowl. How did the Huskies do it? Remember that turnover chart earlier? If you don't, scroll up a few inches. The Huskies forced the most turnovers in the conference and boasted the league's best turnover margin. I wanted to look a closer at the dream season Connecticut experienced. The Huskies lost their first two league games and looked as if they could miss out on the postseason entirely. However, they won their final five games, beating co-champs West Virginia and Pittsburgh along the way to grab the tiebreaker advantage. What changed in the final five games versus the first two?As you can see, the Huskies were outgained by over 160 yards per game in their first two league losses. However, they didn't suddenly become dominant in their final five games. While they did improve on both sides of the ball, they were still outgained by about 55 yards per game over their five-game winning streak. The difference was two-fold. Turnovers and close games. The Huskies did not force a single turnover in their first two games, but they forced 17 in their final five games! The randomness and vagaries of close games also contributed to their success. The Huskies lost their league opener against Rutgers by three points. After that game, the Huskies owned crunch time, beating West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and South Florida each by three points or fewer.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Cincinnati 1.74
For the Bearcats, it was either feast or famine on offense. In their games against the top-3 Big East defenses (West Virginia, Pitt, and Syracuse), the Bearcats averaged only 274 yards and 9 points per game. In their other four league games, they averaged 526 yards and 38 points per game.

Worst Offense: Syracuse -0.97
The Orange, Huskies, and Bulls were all clustered close together near the bottom of the Big East in terms of offensive firepower, with the Orange ranking below the other two.

Best Defense: West Virginia 1.24
Only one Big East team, Pittsburgh, topped 300 yards against the Mountaineer defense. It really was a shame the offense could not pull their weight. The Mountaineers lost two conference games when they allowed 19 and 16 points respectively.

Worst Defense: Rutgers -1.70
The Scarlet Knights opened league play well enough, beating eventual champ Connecticut and holding them to just 284 yards of offense. Unfortunately, they would go on to lose their last six league games while allowing an average of 456 yards per game.

Running Down a Dream
Can you believe this November will mark five years since Rutgers burst onto the national scene with their program defining Thursday night upset of Louisville? My, how time flies. That win marked Rutgers first ever foray into the AP top-10 and though they failed to capitalize on the big win with a BCS bowl appearance, the Knights finished the season 11-2 and ranked number 12 in the nation. Many observers probably believed (and rightfully so) that Rutgers was poised to contend for the Big East crown for the next several seasons. However, in the four seasons after their 2006 breakthrough, the Knights have gone a rather pedestrian 12-16 against their conference foes and have failed to finish in the final polls, much less compete for a conference title (save for 2008 when they finished 5-2, one game back of Cincinnati). One reason for their failure to stay relevant since their shining moment on national television has been the decline of their running game.You may remember in 2006, the Knights had the services of a pair of future NFL running backs in Brian Leonard and Ray Rice. Rice was still toting the rock in 2007, but in the three seasons since his departure, the Knights have gone from an average running team, to one that is among the worst in the Big East. As Connecticut proved in 2010, the Big East is always one of the more wide-open BCS conference races in the nation. If the Knights are to do what many expected and claim a conference crown, they must get more production from their ground game.

2010 ACC SDPI

The offseason tradition continues. Today I proudly bring you, dear readers, the first installment of SDPI. For those new to the site, SDPI is my own personal rating system, stolen from Eddie Epstein, that I use to evaluate teams in each of the nation's 11 IA conferences. We'll begin, as always, with the BCS conferences and tackle those alphabetically before moving on to the so-called mid-majors. Without further adieu, here is the 2010 incarnation of the ACC in SDPI form. If you're interested, here's the link to last year's ACC article.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 ACC regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average ACC team gained and allowed 2963.583 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 424.06 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 406.36 yards. Maryland gained 2831 yards and allowed 2726 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.31 = [(2831-2963.583)/424.06]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.58 = [(2963.583-2726)/406.36]. Their total SDPI was 0.27. This number ranked 7th in the ACC.

Here are the 2010 ACC standings.

Now here are the 2010 ACC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.
2010 was a somewhat historic year for the ACC. For the first time since 2000, the ACC champion managed to navigate through the conference season without a loss. However, unfortunately for the reputation of the league, its champion also lost a non-conference game to James Madison. For the ACC Champion Virginia Tech Hokies, 2010 marked the first undefeated league campaign since their Michael Vick-led siege of the Big East in 1999.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
According to SDPI, Miami was the league's best team by a significant margin. However, the Hurricanes lost at home to the two teams that played in the ACC Championship Game, and for good measure, decided to give Virginia their only league win. Why did Miami fair so poorly (relatively) despite glistening SDPI numbers? Turnovers, plain and simple.While their turnover margin was not terrible, their volume of turnovers was. Miami matched Duke with 22 turnovers in 8 conference games. Quarterbacks Jacory Harris and Stephen Morris played fast and loose with the football, throwing 12 interceptions in ACC play between them. However, what was especially damaging to the Hurricanes chances was that the turnovers came in bunches. In two of their league losses, to Virginia and Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes committed 11 turnovers (half of their league-leading total). That promiscuity with the pigskin is what cost Randy Shannon his job (the Hurricanes added 7 more turnovers in non-conference losses to Ohio State and South Florida) and is something new coach Al Golden will need to correct if he is to take Miami to their first ever ACC Championship Game.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Scroll back up and look at that turnover margin table. I'll give you a minute. Virginia Tech was an amazing +17 in turnovers in ACC play with just 6 turnovers committed! That's how you go undefeated despite solid, but unspectacular SDPI numbers. But that's Beamer Ball right? Virginia Tech always has ridiculous turnover margins.While the Hokies are usually rank near the top of the ACC in turnover margin, that +17 number from 2010 appears to be a bit of an outlier. While the Hokies boasted a comparably fantastic margin in 2007, it shrunk from outstanding, to merely good in 2008. I would expect a similar result in 2011.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Miami 1.53
When they weren't turning the ball over, the Hurricanes were moving the ball with relative ease. Their lowest yardage output came in the conference opener against Clemson when they managed only 376 yards. If they had only averaged that number all season, they would have still ranked 8th in the conference.

Worst Offense: Wake Forest -1.96
After bidding adieu to one of the school's best quarterbacks in Riley Skinner, the Deacons struggled profoundly moving the ball in 2010. After opening conference play with 54 points in a win over Duke, the Deacons would manage just 55 total points in their next four conference games.

Best Defense: Clemson 1.39
The Tigers continued their run of outstanding play on the defensive side of the ball in 2010. Clemson has ranked either first or second in the ACC in defense each of the past five seasons.

Worst Defense: Duke -1.72
Outside of 2009, when they somehow ranked 8th, the Blue Devils have been either last or second-to-last in the ACC in defense every year since 2005.

The Descent
It was under-reported, at least by most of the college football media, but I found it interesting that both 2009 ACC Championship Game participants (Clemson and Georgia Tech) stumbled in 2010. Both posted losing overall records for the first time since 1998 (Clemson) and 1996 (Georgia Tech) respectively. Both slipped thanks to just one side of the ball. For Georgia Tech, it was their defense, which became a sieve. Their potent triple option offense was strong, but unable to compensate for their defensive shortcomings. For Clemson, it was their offense, which crumbled, and wasted the best defense in the ACC. Clemson's fall can be attributed to perhaps the most important aspect of modern football, the forward pass.Quarterback Kyle Parker deferred a few million dollars in order to return to Clemson, and he hoped, bring an ACC title to Death Valley. Unfortunately, Parker regressed in his return, and the Tigers could never realistically entertain thoughts of an ACC championship. Parker's completion percentage declined a little, but the significant declines came in his yards per attempt and touchdowns. Without a big play receiver (like Jacoby Ford or CJ Spiller), Clemson was unable to generate big plays in the passing game. They also had a very tough time scoring.The Tigers were anemic moving the football (as seen in their SDPI numbers), and they were equally inept scoring touchdowns. Their 16 total touchdowns in eight league games tied for second fewest in the conference with Wake Forest. Plus, the Tigers had by far the fewest passing touchdowns. Even the woeful passing attacks at Wake Forest and Boston College had more, as did the team that ran the ball on virtually every snap (Georgia Tech). Of course, all the blame should not fall at the feet of Kyle Parker. The Tigers top quartet of receivers in 2010 (DeAndre Hopkins, Jaron Brown, Dwayne Allen, and Jamie Harper), had a combined 28 receptions heading into 2010. All four return in 2011, so even without Kyle Parker, the Clemson offense has a good chance of improving even as they must break in a signal caller.

A Little About Homefield Advantage

While writing the Big 12 Compendium a few weeks ago, I was curious to find out how homefield advantage manifested itself in each conference. Since the conference landscape will profoundly shift in the fall of 2011 with, among other things, the Pac-10 adding two teams, the Big 12 losing two teams, and the Big 10 gaining one team, I decided to look back and analyze homefield advantage since the last seismic conference shift prior to the 2005 season. Since the beginning of the 2005 season, there have only been two minor alterations in conference alignment, with both occurring at the mid-major level. Temple joined the MAC in 2007 and Western Kentucky joined the Sun Belt in 2009 (they technically played an abbreviated league slate in 2008, but since they only played five of the other eight teams, I am disregarding that). Otherwise, each conference has been stable for the past six seasons.

With that out of the way, here is the cumulative home record for each conference since 2005 (includes conference games only).The Big 12 has enjoyed the most significant homefield advantage with its member schools winning roughly 60% of the time at home in league play. Homefield has mattered the least in the MAC with the home team winning just barely more than half the time in league play. In the aggregate, the home team has won on average about 56% of the time in conference play since 2005 (the All Conferences number).

The bigger question I wanted to answer when examining homefield advantage was which teams showed the biggest difference in their home and road performance. This analysis did not consider neutral site games, so the annual clashes such as Florida/Georgia in Jacksonville and Oklahoma/Texas in Dallas as well as any other neutral conference game were not included. So which teams had the largest difference in their home versus road conference winning percentage? The number one team will certainly surprise you.The Red Wolves from Arkansas State are one of the more formidable home teams in the country when facing their conference brethren. They are second to Troy in overall home record in Sun Belt play, sporting a 17-5 mark since 2005. However, away from Jonesboro, the Red Wolves are much more tame, posting just a 6-16 mark in Sun Belt road games. That is the worst road record among Sun Belt schools that have been members since 2005. Only Western Kentucky has been (slightly) worse on the road, with two wins in eight road games since coming aboard in 2009. While UTEP has been solid at home in Conference USA (their 15-9 mark is tied for fifth best), they have been the second worst road team, winning just four times in 23 games. Marshall has also struggled on the road in Conference USA. They have the same home mark as UTEP, and are just one game better on the road (5-18). In the Big East, Connecticut has the second best home record at 14-7, but is tied with Syracuse for the worst road mark at 5-16. In the MAC, Temple has dominated their conference opponents at home, going a league best 13-3 at Lincoln Financial Field. By contrast, the other ornithological tenants of the Linc (the Philadelphia Eagles) are just 10-6 in their last 16 home games. The Owls are more nocturnal on the road, posting just a 7-9 mark since joining the MAC. Three Big 12 teams are bunched rather closely together on this list. Colorado is decent at home (13-11), but just 4-20 on the road, including just 2-18 under the recently recently fired Dan Hawkins. The Buffs have lost 13 straight Big 12 road games, with their last win coming against Texas Tech in October of 2007. Oklahoma is a little difference case, as they are unbeaten in Norman (21-0), but a more human 13-7 on the road. Like Colorado, Kansas State has been respectable at home (12-11), but putrid on the road (4-19). Out west, the Bruins from UCLA have posted a solid home mark (17-10), including four wins over top-10 teams (Cal twice, Oregon, and Southern Cal), but are just 7-19 away from the Rose Bowl. UNLV has not been very good in any venue, but they have managed nine home conference wins since 2005. Away from Sin City, the Rebels have won just once since in 24 league games. Wisconsin is second only to Ohio State in terms of home Big 10 record (20-4). However, on the road the Badgers are just 12-12.

While Jonesboro, Arkansas may not be the most difficult place to win (I would say Boise, Norman, Fort Worth, or Columbus are the most arduous venues for visitors) it has conferred a significant advantage to Arkansas State when compared to the team's road performance.

The Big 12: A Compendium

As you may have heard, the 2010 football season marked the end of an era in college football. Beginning with the 2011 season, the Big 12 will have two fewer members, as original Big 8 member Nebraska, and longtime conference rival Colorado move on to the Big 10 and Pac-10 respectively. The Big 12 will continue to exist, at least for a time, as a smaller 10-team conference sans divisions. With that being the case, i thought it would be interesting to look back on the Big 12 as it existed for a decade and a half and provide you with some interesting statistical tidbits and minutiae. Enjoy.

Your League Overlord Is...
Well, its debatable. Oklahoma has the most Big 12 Championships with 7. The other 12 teams in the conference only have 8 combined titles, with Texas and Nebraska being the only other teams with multiple titles (3 and 2 respectively). Oklahoma also has the most division titles with 8. Again Nebraska and Texas are second and third in this respective category with their roles reversed. Nebraska has 6 division titles and Texas has 5. However, despite their dominance, particularly since Bob Stoops arrived in Norman before the 1999 season, the Sooners do not own the league's best conference record.That distinction belongs to Texas. Oklahoma does own the best record in the conference since 1999, edging out Texas 78-18 to 76-20. The best team to never appear in the Big 12 Championship game is obviously Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are tied with Kansas State for the 4th best record since the inception of the conference, but thanks to their placement in the South division with Texas and Oklahoma, they were never able to win the division (though they did tie for the crown in 2008). The Red Raiders are also tied with Texas for the fewest losing seasons in conference play with 2, and they are also the only Big 12 team to be bowl eligible in each season of the Big 12's existence. 11 of the league's 12 teams have at least tied for their respective division crowns, with the lone exception of course, being Baylor. In fact this past season, the Bears posted their first-ever non-losing season in Big 12 play when they went 4-4. However, before we start dumping on the Bears and their lack of success, it also bears (nice eh?) mentioning that Kansas and Iowa State have had only one winning season in conference play apiece. Kansas, as you may recall, went 7-1 in 2007 on their way to the Orange Bowl, while Iowa State managed a 5-3 mark back in the year 2000.

Protecting This House
Which Big 12 team has been the best at defending its home turf? The answer, will not shock you.Oklahoma narrowly edges Texas as the best home team in the Big 12's existence. Oklahoma moved into the top spot after the Longhorns went winless at home in the Big 12 in 2010. After losing in Austin just 3 times during Mack Brown's first 12 years in the lone star state, the Longhorns amazingly lost all 4 of their Big 12 home games this past season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has lost just once in Norman to a Big 12 foe under Bob Stoops (it came in 2001 to Bedlam rival Oklahoma State). You'll notice Oklahoma and Texas have significantly fewer home games than the other 10 Big 12 teams. This is because they each forfeit a home game every other year in order to play each other at the state fair in Dallas.

Road Warriors
And who has performed the best in the road? Again, the answer is not likely to surprise you.Texas and Oklahoma are once again tops in the conference, this time in true road record. These games comprise only 'true' road games, so any neutral site game (including every Oklahoma/Texas Red River battle) is not considered. Nebraska joins the Longhorns and Sooners as the only other Big 12 team with a winning record in road games. Baylor has been by far the worst road team in Big 12 play. In fact, they did not win their first Big 12 road game until 2005, the 10th year of the league's existence. 2010, as mentioned earlier, not only marked Baylor's first .500 or better season in the Big 12, but it also marked the first time they managed more than a single road win. The Bears defeated both Colorado and Texas on the road in 2010. The victory over Colorado means the Buffs are currently the only team to ever lose multiple times to Baylor at home in Big 12 play (Baylor also beat them in 2006).

The Biggest Homefield Advantage Is In...Lubbock?!
That's right. Texas Tech has the largest discrepancy between their record at home and their record in 'true' road games. The Red Raiders win over 70% of the time in Lubbock, but see their winning percentage drop to just over 42% on the road.Colorado also enjoys a significant homefield advantage (compared to their road performance) playing in Boulder. Texas has shown the smallest difference between their home and road record, meaning they are just as tough to beat on the road as they are in Austin (usually).

Using the Point Spread to Analyze Bowl Performance

If you spent any time this bowl season watching ESPN after New Year's Day, you no doubt heard the talking heads going on and on about how 'awful' the Big 10 was. They loved to site and ridicule in particular the league's 0-5 mark on January 1st. However, what they failed to mention was that all 5 Big 10 teams were underdogs in those games, with Northwestern (9 and a half point dogs to Texas Tech) and Michigan State (10 point dogs to Alabama) coming in as prohibitive underdogs. In order to come up with a more sophisticated way to look at how a conference (or team) performs in the bowl season, it would help to know the probability they had of winning their bowl game. One way to estimate win probability is to use the point spread or Vegas line. While the point spread is to some degree influenced by public opinion (in the form of line shifts), it is for the most part an unbiased rating system. In order to determine how likely a team with a given point spread was to win a particular game, I looked at all games played between IA teams from 2005-2009 where there was a point spread of at least one point (i.e. the game was not a pick em' or had a half point favorite) and determined who won the actual game (covering the spread was not important in this exercise). I then (somewhat) arbitrarily divided the results into difference ranges. They are listed in the table below.For the most part, the numbers are pretty intuitive. When a team is favored by less than a field goal, the game result is usually a coin flip, with the favorite prevailing just over 50% of the time. When the margin increases to at least a field goal, but less than a touchdown, the favorite wins nearly 60% of the time. You can peruse the rest of the table for yourself, and see if you can guess the 2 teams that lost as favorites of 30 points or more (the answer is at the bottom of this post). I'll give you a hint, they both happened in 2007 and occurred within 2 weeks of each other.

It is pretty simple to use these probabilities to estimate how many games a conference 'should have' won in the 2010 bowl season. I'll go through the numbers for the Big 10 and then show you how each conference performed. The Big 10 had 8 teams participating in the 2010 bowl season. Ohio State was a 3.5 point favorite over Arkansas, meaning they had roughly a .599 chance of winning the game based on similar point spreads over the last 5 years. Northwestern was 9.5 point dog to Texas Tech meaning they had about a .254 chance of winning (that is 1 minus the chance of a 9.5 point favorite winning or 1-.746). Michigan State was a 10 point dog to Alabama, giving them a .254 chance of winning. Penn State was a 7 point dog to Florida, giving them a .295 chance of winning. Michigan was a 5 point dog to Mississippi State, giving them a .401 chance of winning. Wisconsin was a 3 point dog to TCU, giving them a .401 chance of winning. Iowa was a 3 point dog to Missouri, giving them a .401 chance of winning. And finally, Illinois was a 1.5 dog to Baylor, giving them a .492 chance of winning. Add all those win probabilities up and we come up with 3.097 expected wins for the Big 10 based on the point spread. The Big 10 actually won 3 bowl games (Ohio State, Iowa, and Illinois), meaning they underperformed their expected win total slightly. Here is how every conference performed in the 2010 bowl season.The Big 10 was a respectable 7th among all 12 conferences. They were 6th of 11 if we remove the independents which is not really a conference and only includes 3 teams (Army, Navy, Notre Dame). The conference that performed the worst by far was the Big 12, and yet there was hardly a whimper of their poor performance on ESPN. The main culprit for the Big 12's bowl woes was Nebraska. The Cornhuskers entered the bowl season as the 3rd largest favorite (after Oklahoma and Boise), but were upset by the 14 point dog Washington Huskies. In a nice twist of fate, the Huskers are leaving the conference that performed the worst in the 2010 bowl season and joining the conference that was perceived to have performed the worst.

Southern Cal to Stanford (as 41 point favorites) and Louisville to Syracuse (as 37 point favorites) are the 2 teams to lose as 30+ point favorites.

2010 Bowl Preview: Part IV

29 bowl games down, just 6 to go. With the interesting way the bowl season is set up this year, the final week features teams of varying degrees of competency. There is of course, the national title game next Monday. However, in between we have games involving the MAC champion (Miami of Ohio), a 6-6 also ran from the Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee), a co-Big East champ (Pitt), and a co-WAC champ (Nevada) just to name a few. In all, these final 6 bowl games include teams from 9 of the 11 IA conferences (only Conference USA and the Mountain West are absent). And just in case you were wondering, the bowl locks went 3-2 this postseason (narrowly missing a 4-1 effort thanks to Wisconsin's late score against TCU).

Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, Louisiana
Ohio State versus Arkansas
Ohio State -3.5
As consistent as a New Year's hangover, every January the Buckeyes are playing in a BCS bowl game. Since Jim Tressel arrived in Columbus in 2001, the Buckeyes this Sugar Bowl marks the 8th BCS bowl game he has led the Buckeyes to (and 6th consecutive). Last season, the Buckeyes exorcised some BCS demons by upsetting Oregon in the Rose Bowl, breaking a 3-game BCS bowl losing streak. Now the Buckeyes look to exorcise an even bigger demon, winning a game against the SEC. In their most recent high-profile clashes with the SEC, the Buckeyes were embarrassed by Florida in 2006 and then by LSU in 2007. Can they salvage a modicum of national respect against Arkansas? The Buckeyes once again boasted the best defense in the Big 10 (the 5th time in the 6 years I have been calculating SDPI data that they have accomplished this feat). The offense was also quite proficient, ranking 3rd in the conference. Their defense will be challenged by an Arkansas offense that was tops in the SEC (thanks to their late-season run, they passed eclipsed Auburn as the best in the conference). However, while the defense was improved over their last place finish in 2009, they were still a below average 8th in the SEC. I think Ohio State will finally get a win over the SEC in this game, but I wouldn't trust them laying 3 and a half points.


Go Daddy Dot Com Bowl
Mobile, Alabama
Middle Tennessee State versus Miami of Ohio
Middle Tennessee -1
Somehow Middle Tennessee State made it to a bowl game and is actually favored. I don't say this to knock the Blue Raiders, I just find it hard to believe that Vegas, and the betting public view them as superior to the MAC champions. Middle Tennessee became the first Sun Belt team to win 10 games last season, and looked poised to challenge Troy for the Sun Belt title. However, the offense sputtered, and the defense declined as well. Middle Tennessee opened the year with a 3-6 mark, with the only respectable losses coming to Troy and Georgia Tech (the Blue Raides gave Memphis their only win in a 1-11 debacle). They managed to win their final 3 games, with two coming by a single point. To be fair, one did come against league champion Florida International. They enter the Go Daddy Bowl looking for their second ever bowl win and will face a team making its first postseason appearance since 2004. The Redhawks went from worst to first in 2010. They finished dead last in the MAC East in 2009 with a 1-7 mark (1-11 overall), but rebounded to go 7-1 in the conference in 2010 and upset Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game. Their head coach, Mike Haywood, bolted for the greener pastures of Pitt after their stunning MAC title, but as you may have heard, will never coach a game there. Interim coach Lance Guidry will coach the team in the bowl before Don Treadwell takes over. The Redhawks were very balanced in the MAC, finishing 4th on offense and 3rd on defense. They appear to be the stronger team here, and taking them on the moneyline should be a smart move.

Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas
LSU versus Texas A&M
LSU -1
I think most, if not all, Texas A&M fans would have been ecstatic if you had told them at the beginning of the season that their final destination for the 2010 campaign would be the Cotton Bowl. The Aggies had their best season in a decade and actually won a share of the Big 12 South for the first time since 1998. The Aggies looked to be in for another mediocre season after a 3-game losing streak left them at 3-3 halfway through the season. In hindsight, all the losses were respectable, with each coming to teams that managed to win at least 10 games (Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri), and two coming by seven points or fewer. After the final loss at home to Missouri, the Aggies won 6 straight, including victories over Big 12 Championship Game participants Oklahoma and Nebraska, and a win over arch-rival Texas that kept the 'Horns out of the bowl picture. The Aggies were very balances this season, ranking 4th in the Big 12 on offense and 5th on defense. The LSU Tigers were their usual down-to-the-wire selves, winning 6 games by a touchdown or less (often as heavy favorites). To be fair, both their defeats were also close, and both came on the road to BCS bowl participants (Auburn and Arkansas). LSU won games with a fantastic defense (2nd best in the SEC). Unfortunately, their offense was inconsistent and below average, ranking only 7th in the SEC. As the spread suggests, this game appears to be a toss-up, but it may be a good idea to take LSU. The Tigers are 4-1 in bowl games under Les Miles, with their 4 wins all coming by at least 14 points. Their lone lass came last season to Penn State by just two points. For Texas A&M, they have gone nearly a decade since tasting postseason victory. Since winning the 2001 Gallery Furniture Bowl over TCU, the Aggies have lost 4 straight bowl games, with 3 of the defeats coming by at least 24 points.


BBVA Compass Bowl
Birmingham, Alabama
Pitt versus Kentucky
Pitt -3.5
The Pitt Panthers look to become the first of the Big East's 3 co-champions to win a bowl this postseason. West Virginia was upset by NC State and Connecticut was blown out by Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Pitt once again began the year with visions of a BCS bowl appearance, but were unable to follow through. Though they shared the league title, the lack of a breakthrough season cost Dave Wannstedt his job. Unfortunately for the school, their pick to replace Wannstedt, Mike Haywood, was also let go thanks to a domestic violence charge. Defensive coordinator Phi Bennett will coach the Panthers in the bowl. The Panthers were a solid number two in the Big East this season, ranking second on both offense (behind Cincinnati) and defense (behind West Virginia) in the conference. The Panthers did not distinguish themselves outside the conference, losing close games to Utah and Notre Dame, and getting waxed by Miami. For Pitt to get to 8 wins for the third straight season, they must beat a Kentucky team playing in its 5th straight bowl game. I know the bowl season has become a watered down display of mediocrity, but Kentucky still deserves props, as from 1977 to 2005, they played in just 5 bowl games. Kentucky featured their best offense (3rd in the SEC) since Andre Woodson departed, but alas, their defense was once again deplorable, ranking just 10th in the SEC. Pitt should probably win this game, but with the turmoil surrounding the program, I would stay away from this one.


Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco, California
Nevada versus Boston College
Nevada -8
After the NFL playoffs have concluded on Sunday evening, tune in here to see one of the best dual-threat college quarterbacks ever. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has rushed for 1000 yards each of the past 3 seasons. In addition, he has also passed for at least 2000 yards for 4 straight seasons. Kaepernick is the perfect player to run head coach Chris Ault's pistol offense, and with the Wolfpack's upset of Boise, Kaepernick and company finally earned a share of the elusive WAC championship. To the surprise of no one, Nevada boasted the best offense in the WAC. While their defense was not great by any means, they did manage a decent 4th place showing in the conference. The marks Nevada's 6th straight bowl game under Chris Ault, but they have lost 4 straight since winning the Hawaii Bowl in 2005. To break their bowl losing streak and potentially become one of two WAC teams to finish in the top 10 (its a long shot as they are currently ranked 13th), the Wolfpack must beat a Boston College team with a fantastic defense, but a terrible offense. Boston College closed the year on a 5-game winning streak after a 2-5 start. However, in those 5 wins, the Eagles still only managed to average 18.6 points per game. None of the 3 players the Eagles tried at quarterback were able to throw more touchdowns than interceptions. Seemingly, their only offensive threat is running back Montel Harris who rushed for over 1200 yards this season. Can the fine Boston College defense hold down the Wolfpack ground game enough for them to fly away with the upset? This seems to be a game that Boston College will keep close and that will subsequently be decided in the final moments, or one where a key turnover here or there by the Eagles will lead to an avalanche of Nevada points. Don't make a play here, but stay up to watch Mr. Kaepernick in his final college game.


BCS National Championship Game
Glendale, Arizona
Auburn versus Oregon
Auburn -3
The BCS National Championship Game seems likely to be a high-scoring affair. I think it will be pretty high-scoring, but with the amount of time off since these teams last played (37 days between games for both teams), I think we could be in for a slow start with a lot of offensive misfires. Once the games gets settled though, we should be in for a treat. Oregon boasted the top-ranked offense in the Pac-10, and also featured a solid defense (3rd in the conference). The Ducks only played in one game decided by a single score, their skin of the teeth 15-13 win over Cal. Their other 11 wins all came by at least 11 points. On the other sideline, the Tigers from Auburn finished second in the SEC on offense (behind Arkansas) and a disappointing 7th on defense. Unlike Oregon, seemingly every game, particularly early was an adventure for Auburn. 5 of their first 8 wins (and 5 of their first 6 against BCS conference teams) came by 8 points ore fewer, with 3 decided by a field goal. The Tigers appeared to get things rolling down the stretch, as their only close win in their final 5 games was the great comeback over Alabama (won by a single point). Can Oregon stop the SEC's run of 4 straight BCS championships? They certainly have a good a chance as anyone, but if you forced me to make a pick here, it would probably be Auburn.

2010 Bowl Preview: Part III

Enough with the hor d'oeuvres, lets dig into the main course of college football. This penultimate post will preview all the bowl games up to the Orange Bowl on January 3rd.

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Charlotte, North Carolina
Clemson versus South Florida
Clemson -6
While it may not seem like it on the surface, this game has pretty big implications for Clemson. The Tigers enter this game with a disappointing 6-6 record. A loss here would give the Tigers their first losing season since 1998, and only their second since 1995! The Tigers could have had a much better season if their offense cooperated. The Tigers boasted the best defense in the ACC, but their offense ranked only 10th. Quarterback Kyle Parker took a huge step backward in 2010, throwing just 12 touchdowns after tossing 20 in 2009. The running game and special teams also took a hit with the loss of CJ Spiller. The Tigers averaged 4.81 yards per rush in 2009 (19th in the nation), but fell 4.09 yards per rush in 2010 (70th in the nation). In addition, after scoring 6 touchdowns on special teams in 2010 (5 by Spiller), the Tigers scored just one in 2010. On the other sideline, South Florida didn't do a whole lot very well in 2010, ranking 6th in the Big East on offense and 5th on defense. They did do a good job of hanging around and attempting to use the patented Skip Holtz close game magic. 7 of South Florida's 12 games were decided by 8 points or less, and the Bulls managed to win 4 of them (not quite up to his ridiculous standard at East Carolina). This game has low-scoring defensive struggle written all over it. Clemson is probably the better team, but 6 points is a little too much to feel comfortable laying on a team without an offense.


Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas
Miami versus Notre Dame
Miami -3
While the two teams in the Sun Bowl have a relatively mediocre 14-10 combined record, the 'name' brands are pretty strong. Miami enters the game looking to send its senior class out with their first bowl win (Hurricanes haven't won a bowl game since 2006), and set the stage for a revival under new coach Al Golden. Golden won't coach the 'Canes in the bowl (offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland has a chance to rank as either the best or worst coach of all-time in terms of winning percentage), but with the job he has done at Temple, you have to figure Miami is in good hands. By all accounts, the Hurricanes should have finished much better than 7-5 in 2010. The offense was the best by far in the ACC, and the defense was solid (5th in the conference). However, the Hurricanes committed 32 turnovers (only Buffalo and Middle Tennessee State committed more) en route to a not-so-bad turnover margin of -4. However, those turnovers all seemed to come at once. In their 5 losses, they committed 20 turnovers (compared to just 12 in their 7 wins) and forced only 5 for a turnover margin of -15. If they did a better job of holding onto the ball, the Hurricanes could have contended for the ACC title. For the Irish, a 7-5 mark certainly represents progress, and compared to where they were in early November, the record is a success. On October 30th, the Irish lost at home to Tulsa to 4-5 with games remaining against a ranked Utah squad and a date at Southern Cal, a team the Irish had not beaten since 2001. The Irish held Utah to only 3 points and then took advantage of quarterback Matt Barkley's injury to upset the Trojans in LA. Notre Dame is a decent team with no bad losses (all 5 of the teams that beat them are playing in bowls), but this field goal spread seems about right. Miami is a very helter-skelter team though, so don't go laying any significant amount of money on them to win or cover.


Liberty Bowl
Memphis, Tennessee
Georgia versus Central Florida
Georgia -6.5
The Bulldogs are in danger of enduring their first losing season since 1996! They needed a win over their in-state rival Georgia Tech over Thanksgiving Weekend to even qualify for postseason play. This has been by far the worst season Georgia has experienced under head coach Mark Richt. In fact, in the past two seasons, Georgia has lost 9 SEC games. When Richt took over the reigns of the Bulldogs in 2001, he did not lose his 9th conference game until 2005! Of course, Georgia is probably a little better than their 6-6 record would indicate. The Bulldogs were just 1-3 in one-score games and 4 of their 6 losses came to teams ranked in the current top 25. Georgia was middle-of-the-road on both sides of the ball in the SEC. Their offense, led by a redshirt freshman quarterback (Aaron Murray), ranked 6th in the SEC, and the defense ranked 5th. Georgia will be facing a team with their own star freshman quarterback (Jeff Godfrey) looking for their first ever bowl win (0-3 in their previous appearances). The Knights from UCF paced Conference USA in defense the pair of BCS-conference teams they faced this year fits in close losses. They held NC State quarterback Russell Wilson to his worst game as a collegian (completed just 10 of 30 passes for 105 yards) and Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas had one of his worst rushing days against UCF (76 yards on 22 carries). In addition, for the first time since Kevin Smith left following the 2007, UCF also had a solid offense. While they ranked only 7th in Conference USA on offense, their attack was very efficient. Jeff Godfrey ranked 8th nationally in pass efficiency, completing over 68% of his passes and averaging 9.8 yards per throw. Godfrey also hurt defenses with his feet, gaining over 500 yards on the ground and rushing for 10 touchdowns. UCF is a very dangerous team, representing the best defense Georgia has faced since their Cocktail Party date with Florida, and potentially the second best defense they have faced all year. Georgia will also have their hands full defending Godfrey and the efficient UCF offense. UCF may not win this game, but they will give Georgia a serious challenge.


Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, Georgia
South Carolina versus Florida State
South Carolina -3
Steve Spurrier versus Florida State, does it get any better? Did you know its been over 9 years since Spurrier last coached against Florida State? November 17, 2001 marked the last time Spurrier coached against the Seminoles. One of Spurrier's best Florida teams crushed the 'Noles 37-13. Two weeks later with a spot in the Rose Bowl (the national title game for 2001) on the line, the Gators were upset at home by Tennessee. Florida went on to crush Maryland in the Orange Bowl and Spurrier left to coach the Washington Redskins. In his absence, the Gators endured the Ron Zook era and then won a pair of national titles under Urban Meyer. Spurrier did not enjoy his collegiate success in the nation's capital, and returned to the coaching ranks at South Carolina. Under his guidance, the Gamecocks won the SEC East for the first time ever and with a win here, will finish in the top 25 for the first time since 2001 (eery coincidence eh?). South Carolina was solid on both sides of the ball, ranking 4th on both offense and defense in the SEC. The offense is led by quarterback Stephen Garcia, but freshman running back Marcus Lattimore has given the offense a new dimension this season. From 2008-2009, the Gamecocks rushed for 19 touchdowns as a team. Lattimore rushed for 17 himself in 2010 (as well as 1198 yards). He has a long way to go to catch George Rogers on the all-time Gamecock rushing list (5204 yards), but if stays healthy he will easily be the at worst the second best back in school history. For Florida State, this is their first bowl game since the 1971 Fiesta Bowl without coach Bobby Bowden. A win for the Seminoles would allow them to end the season ranked for only the second time since 2005 (consider the 'Noles were ranked in the top 10 of the final polls for every season 1987-2000). Florida State appeared to be the class of the ACC early in league play, but stumbled down the stretch. In their first 4 ACC games, the 'Noles averaged 424 yards per game and allowed an average of 295 yards per game (they were 4-0 in those games). In their last 4 ACC games, the 'Noles averaged 352 yards per game (failed to gain more than 374 yards) and allowed an average of 416 yards per game (they did manage a split in those 4 games). Florida State appears to be on a downward trajectory after their early season success. South Carolina should probably win this game, which would represent only the second bowl win for the Gamecocks since Spurrier took over.


Ticket City Bowl
Dallas, Texas
Texas Tech versus Northwestern
Texas Tech -9.5
Is this the year? Can Northwestern finally break their bowl winless streak that stretches back to nearly World War II? Since winning the 1948 Rose Bowl against Cal, the Wildcats have lost 7 straight bowl games. To be fair, the Wildcats have been underdogs in each of those games, and have been substantial underdogs (at least a touchdown) in 6 of them. The Wildcats have come close to breaking the streak the past two seasons, losing in OT both years. If Northwestern is to break the streak, they will have to do so without quarterback Dan Persa who was lost for the year while throwing the game-winning touchdown pass against Iowa. Without Persa, the Wildcats averaged over 100 fewer yards of total offense per game in their final two Big 10 games than they did in the first 6 with Persa. Of course, the defense also bears a great portion of the blame for those two defeats, surrendering a combined 1118 yards and 118 points in losses to Illinois and Wisconsin. On the season, the Wildcat defense ranked just 9th in the Big 10, ahead of only Indiana and Michigan. If the Wildcats are to break the bowl losing streak, the burden will almost certainly rest with the offense. Their opponent in the Ticket City Bowl is the worst Texas Tech team in a decade. Not only did Tommy Tuberville severely cripple the offense (their ranking of 5th was the worst for any year I have SDPI data for), but the defense was among the worst in the Big 12 (tied with Baylor, ahead of only Kansas). The Red Raiders finished 3-5 in the Big 12, their first losing record in league play since Mike Leach's first season in 2000. The red Raiders were also very fortunate to qualify for a bowl. They won each of their Big 12 games by a touchdown or less (outscored by 80 points in their Big 12 games), won only two road games versus New Mexico (1-11) and Colorado (5-7), and even when factoring in their relatively soft non-conference slate, were outgained on the year. Texas Tech is a very shaky team to be favored by so much. Northwestern may not end their postseason victory drought, but they should do enough to cover. The Wildcats are your 4th lock of the bowl season.


Capital One Bowl
Orlando, Florida
Alabama versus Michigan State
Alabama -10
The Capital One Bowl features Nick Saban's current school versus (one of) Nick Saban's old school. With a win, Michigan State would guarantee themselves of a finish inside the top 10 for the first time since Nick Saban's 1999 team ended the year ranked number 7. Despite their disappointment in not playing in the Rose Bowl, its been a pretty special year for Michigan State. The Spartans have won 11 games for the first time in school history, beaten Michigan 3 times in a row, and won a share of the Big 10 title for the first time since 1990. The Spartans had an average offense by Big 10 standards (6th in the league), but it was very efficient. Kirk Cousins completed over 67% of his passes and ranked 19th nationally in pass efficiency. Running back Edwin Baker quietly rushed for nearly 1200 yards at over 6 yards per carry. The defense on the other hand, was very good, ranking second in the Big 10 (behind the always stout Ohio State unit). To win their first bowl game in nearly 10 years, the Spartans must contend with an Alabama team that was able to defend neither its national nor conference title. After not losing a regular season conference game since 2007, the Tide lost 3 in 2010, including one at home against archrival Auburn that likely would have doused their national title hopes. Alabama was solid, but not spectacular at any phase of the game in 2010, finishing 5th in the SEC on offense and 3rd on defense. Alabama is rightly favored in this one, as Nick Saban is one of his generation's best college coaches. However, don't count the Spartans out, as Saban is only 6-6 career in bowl games and this falls into one of the double digit favorites categories. Don't be surprised if the Spartans hang with the Tide and cover the number, and maybe even win outright.


Outback Bowl
Tampa, Florida
Florida versus Penn State
Florida -7
This will be the final game (for now) for one of these coaches, and amazingly, it is not Joe Paterno. Urban Meyer's successful, but short tenure at Florida will draw to a close at the conclusion of this game. Both teams come into this game with identical 7-5 records hoping to ease the sting of a relatively disappointing season. For Florida, which finished atop the polls in 2008 and at number 3 in 2009, 2010 will either find them outside the final polls or in the nether regions of the top 25. The Gators struggles this season were all on one side of the ball--offense. The defense was the best in the SEC, but the offense only managed a 9th place showing. Sans Tim Tebow, Riley Cooper, Aaron Hernandez and a few others, the offense could never find its footing. As a team, the Gators threw just one more touchdown pass (12) than interceptions (11). The team also averaged just 4.35 yards per rush, after averaging over 5 yards per carry during each year Tebow was the starting quarterback (2007-2009). Penn State also failed to meet expectations after finishing in the top 10 of the final polls in both 2008 and 2009. Perhaps this was to be expected without an experienced quarterback heading into the season. However, not only did the offense disappoint (7th in the Big 10), but the defense did as well (also 7th in the Big 10). On the bright side, the offense did appear to step it up a notch after quarterback Matthew McGloin was earned the starting quarterback job. In their first 3 conference games, when Robert Bolden started, the Nittany Lions averaged just 296 yards and 16 points per game. In their final 5 games, all started by McGloin, Penn State averaged 425 yards and just over 30 points per game. How will McGloin fare against the strong Florida defense with such a long break? Its anyone's guess. Florida is probably the better team, but laying a whole touchdown seems a bit steep here.


Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Florida
Mississippi State versus Michigan
Mississippi State -5
Rich Rodriguez may be coaching for his job in the Gator Bowl. In his 3rd season at the helm of the Wolverines, he has finally gotten them bowl eligible. However, for the 3rd consecutive season, the Wolverines are saddled with a losing Big 10 record. Rich Rod's record against the Big 10 in his 3 seasons is now a sorry 6-18. In 2008, Michigan beat Wisconsin and Minnesota, which both finished 3-5 in Big 10 play. In 2009, the Wolverines only managed to beat Indiana which finished 1-7 in the Big 10. This year, the Wolverines beat Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue. Indiana once again finished 1-7, Purdue went 2-6, and the Illini went 4-4. The win over Illinois marks the Wolverines only win over a conference opponent that finished with at least a .500 league record. Michigan was the epitome of unbalanced in 2010. Their offense was the best in the Big 10 (even without Denard Robinson for significant portions) and their defense was the worst in the conference. 7 of their 8 conference opponents (all save Purdue) scored at least 34 points against the Michigan defense. The good news for Michigan is that their opponent in the Gator Bowl may not be able to take advantage (at least not significant advantage) of that glaring weakness. Mississippi State is back in the postseason for the first time since 2007 and just the second time since the turn of the century. A win in the game would give the Bulldogs 9 wins for the first time since 1999 and have them ranked in the final polls for the first time since 2000. That would be quite a coup for second year coach Dan Mullen. While Mullen's forte is offense, the Bulldogs won this season with a solid defense. Their offense ranked just 11th in the SEC (ahead of only lowly Vanderbilt), but their defense 6th (ahead of the defense of eventual SEC champ Auburn). The Bulldogs won with good defense, but they also won with good fortune. They went 4-2 in one-score games and recovered an amazing 14 of 17 opponent's fumbles. This should be a very interesting game. Can Mississippi State's weak offense exploit Michigan's obscenely weak defense and can Michigan's powerful offense exploit Mississippi State's solid defense? If you are itching to make a play here, take Michigan on the moneyline. Otherwise, leave this one alone.


Rose Bowl
Pasadena, California
TCU versus Wisconsin
TCU -3
Thanks to some special teams gaffes on the part of Boise State, the Horned Frogs will be proud participants in the granddaddy of em all. A win by TCU would likely land them their highest end of season poll ranking since they won the national title in 1938. Win or lose, TCU will likely finish in the top 10 of the final polls for the 3rd consecutive year (Alabama and Ohio State are the only other teams that can join TCU in that club--for Ohio State it would mark a 6th straight year of top 10 finishes). TCU was uber-dominant for the 3rd consecutive season in the Mountain West, easily ranking as the best offense and defense in the conference. With the exception of their 5-point win over San Diego State, they won each league game by at least 27 points. TCU has won 25 of their past 26 conference games, with the lone loss coming at undefeated Utah in 2008. Of those 25 wins, only 3 have come by single digits. In their never-ending struggle to earn national respect, Wisconsin will serve as a fine opponent. The Badgers have not lost since early October when they were turned away by 10 points at Michigan State. Since escaping Iowa by a single point on October 23rd, the Badgers have won their final 4 league games by a combined 151 points, twice scoring at least 70. In those final 4 games, the Badgers have averaged 505 yards per game (including 299 on the ground) after averaging just 362 yards in their first 4 league games (185 on the ground). TCU allowed only two opponents (ground conscious Air Force and rival SMU) to gain more than 100 yards rushing this season. The onus will be on Wisconsin to push around the TCU defense. With TCU being such a dominant team and such a small favorite, they are the 5th and final lock of the bowl season.


Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Arizona
Oklahoma versus Connecticut
Oklahoma -17
Congrats to the University of Connecticut who have gone from IAA to IA Independence to the Big East to the Fiesta Bowl. That being said, I don't know that the Huskies are actually that good. For starters, they lost to a team that finished last in the Big East (Rutgers), were shut out by a 6-6 (now 7-6) team (Louisville), were beaten by Temple (a solid team, but one a BCS bowl participant should not lose to), and scored just 10 points in a loss to a terrible Michigan defense. Their offense ranked just 7th in the Big East and their defense was not much better at 6th in the conference. The Huskies were able to grab the Big East's BCS bid thanks to a solid record in one-score games (3-1), including narrow wins over fellow conference co-champs West Virginia and Pitt, and a great turnover margin. The Huskies won their final 5 games after a 3-4 start, and in that span the Huskies committed just 5 turnovers while forcing 17 for a margin of +12. You will win a lot of games with a margin that high. For the Huskies to have any shot at actually winning this game, they will need to force a ton of turnovers. Oklahoma comes into this game looking to get off the BCS bowl snide, having lost 5 consecutive BCS bowls since winning the 2002 Rose Bowl. Their two losses in the Fiesta Bowl were especially painful as they were touchdown favorites over both Boise State in 2006 and West Virginia in 2007. In those games, the defense was torched for a combined 91 points! That shouldn't happen this year as Oklahoma comes into the game with the 3rd best offense and defense in the Big 12. The Sooners may not cover this large number (see the previous explanations of the trouble with double-digit favorites), but a loss here would mark one of the largest bowl upsets in history.


Orange Bowl
Miami, Florida
Stanford versus Virgina Tech
Stanford -3
After the potential bloodbath in the Fiesta Bowl, the BCS offers up a fantastic showdown in the Orange Bowl. Both Stanford and Virginia Tech are strong teams that both ranked second overall in their respective conferences. After losing their Heisman contending running back Toby Gerhart, the Cardinal got better thanks to another Heisman in quarterback Andrew Luck. The Cardinal boasted the second best offense in the Pac-10 (behind Oregon), and they complimented that strength with the second best defense in the conference as well (behind Cal). Outside of close wins over Southern Cal and Arizona State, the Cardinal laid the wood in their other 9 wins. They beat solid teams like Notre Dame and Arizona by 23 and 25 points. They pounded average teams like Washington, Cal, and Oregon State by 41, 34, and 38 points. Outside of their second-half meltdown against Oregon, the Cardinal may have been the best team in the nation. Virginia Tech was certainly not an elite team, but they were very good. After opening the year with close losses to Boise State and James Madison, the Hokies reeled off 11 consecutive victories, with just one (a 7-point win over Georgia Tech) coming by fewer than 11 points. Ironically, it was the Hokie offense that carried the team, ranking second in the ACC. The defense was solid (6th in the conference), but not its usual outstanding self. This game should be one of the better ones of the bowl season. Stanford is the favorite, and rightly so, but methinks Virginia Tech will give the Cardinal a good game.