2010 Conference USA SDPI

We've rolled through all six BCS conferences so now its time to take a look at the little guys. We'll begin our mid-major sojourn with Conference USA, one of two mid-major leagues with a pair of divisions and a conference title game. For a primer, here's the link to last year's Conference USA post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Conference USA regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average Conference USA team gained and allowed 3306.67 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 565.42 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 328.68 yards. Marshall gained 2441 yards and allowed 2910 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -1.53 = [(2441-3306.67)/565.42]. Their defensive SDPI was 1.21 = [(3306.67-2910)/328.68]. Their total SDPI was -0.32. This number ranked 8th in Conference USA.

Here are the 2010 Conference USA standings.Now here are the 2010 Conference USA SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.For the first time since the league expanded and split into two divisions in 2005, Conference USA had a team ranked in the final AP poll. In fact they had two (first time ever). With their bowl victories over Georgia and Hawaii respectively, UCF and Tulsa finished 21st and 24th in the last AP poll. Meanwhile, at the Hall of Justice, err, the bottom of the standings, Memphis has now lost 13 consecutive league games since beating UTEP in 2009.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Houston has been a threat to win the western division nearly every season since the league expanded. From 2006-2009, the Cougars finished either first or a game back of first each season. They weathered the loss of the school's all-time leading passer in 2007 when Kevin Kolb departed and one year later a coaching change when Art Briles left for Baylor. However, a confluence of forces in 2010 caused them to miss out on a bowl game for the first time since 2004. Cobb's heir to the quarterbacking throne, senior Case Keenum was lost for the year in the season's third game with an ACL injury. The good news for Cougars fans is that Keenum was awarded an extra year of eligibility so he will be back under center in 2011. Even without Keenum for seven of their eight league games, the Cougars still produced the league's second most prolific offense (behind Tulsa). Houston has now finished first or second in Conference USA in offense for each season that I have been calculating SDPI (since 2005). While Keenum's understudy, freshman David Piland, did gain some valuable experience, he also made a fair share of rookie mistakes. Piland threw nine interceptions in his seven league starts. By comparison, Keenum threw just eight in 16 starts from 2008 to 2009. With those interceptions, Houston had the second worst turnover margin in Conference USA in 2010 (-5). The Cougars also went winless in one-score games in 2010, falling to Rice by three, UCF by seven, and Tulsa by three. With Keenum back in the fold, expect the Cougars to return to their rightful place near the top of the west in 2011.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Ruffin McNeill continued the Skip Holtz magic at East Carolina. Despite posting marginal to below average statistics, the Pirates continue to finish in the upper-half of their division and play in bowl games. While under Holtz, the Pirates won with a stout defense and middling offense, the 2010 Pirates flipped the script. East Carolina had an above-average offense for the first time since 2005 with Boston College transfer Dominique Davis throwing 37 touchdown passes in 2010 (the Pirates threw just 30 touchdown passes as a team in 2008 and 2009 combined). However, the defense went from the second best in all of Conference USA, to the worst. Ruffin McNeill, a defensive coach will have to coax some serious improvement out of that side of the ball, as the Pirates allowed at least 40 points in ten of their 13 games.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Tulsa 1.46
The Golden Hurricane were held below 400 yards just once in conference play. They gained just 364 yards in their loss to SMU that ultimately decided the western division.

Worst Offense: Memphis -1.67
With a new coach and a new quarterback, no one was walking with their feet 10 feet off of Beale. Outside of their first game against East Carolina when they set their high-water conference mark in yards (413) and points (27), the Tigers averaged just 279 yards and 14.4 points per game through the rest of conference play.

Best Defense: UCF 1.66
For the second year in a row, and third time in the past four seasons, UCF owned the best defense in Conference USA. That unit also played pretty well in their clashes with the big boys. UCF held Georgia to six points in their bowl win, held NC State quarterback Russell Wilson to his worst passer rating in any start as a collegian, and held Kansas State running back Daniel Thomas to his second worst per carry average on the year.

Worst Defense: East Carolina -1.45
This is what happens when you lose nine starters and your head coach. The Pirates allowed roughly 112 more yards per game to their league foes in 2010 versus 2009 (473 to 361).

Jeff Godfrey: A Godsend
Heading into the 2010 season, UCF looked to be one of the favorites to win their half of Conference USA and perhaps earn a date with an SEC foe in the Liberty Bowl. The Knights defense had been one of the best units in the league for the previous four seasons and looked to be stacked again with seven returning starters. However, the offense, in particular the quarterback position looked to be an area of weakness. Wake Forest transfer Brett Hodges put up solid numbers in his lone year as a starter in 2009, but the only quarterback with any experience heading into 2010 was Rob Calabrese. As a starter in 2008, Calabrese appeared more suited for an offense run by Amos Alonzo Stagg as he completed under 40% of his passes (39.4). Calabrese got the nod in the opener against IAA South Dakota State and actually showed some promise, completing 12 of 15 passes for 176 yards and a touchdown. Against NC State in the team's second game, Calabrese showed that perhaps he should be playing IAA football as he completed just 10 of 18 passes for 106 yards and two interceptions. Down 21 points and in need of a spark, head coach George O'Leary turned to true freshman Jeff Godfrey. Godfrey completed seven of his ten passes, throwing for 107 yards against the Wolfpack. He did not throw any touchdown passes, but he did rush for two scores and 53 yards on the ground. UCF was within seven and in the red zone late in the game when receiver Quincy McDuffie fumbled a Godfrey completion which NC State recovered. The Wolfpack held on for a 28-21 win, but UCF had discovered their quarterback of the future (and present). Behind Godfrey's heroics and another fine defensive showing, the Knights finished 7-1 in league play, beat SMU in the championship game, and upset Georgia in the Liberty Bowl. Godfrey finished the season with the 15th best quarterback rating in the nation (154.31), and he also added over 500 yards on the ground for good measure. He has a ways to go, but Godfrey could end up being the school's most accomplished passer, surpassing even the great Daunte Culpepper.

2010 SEC SDPI

This week we conclude our sojourn through the big boys of college football with the kings of the college landscape, the SEC. For first time readers, here's a link to last year's post on the SEC.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 SEC regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average SEC team gained and allowed 2997.75 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 516.03 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 373.68 yards. Georgia gained 3064 yards and allowed 2846 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.13 = [(3064-2997.75)/516.03]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.41 = [(2997.75-2846)/373.68]. Their total SDPI was 0.53. This number ranked 7th in the SEC.

Here are the 2010 SEC standings.Now here are the 2010 SEC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.For the fifth straight season, the SEC produced the BCS National Champion. However, by perusing either the actual standings or the SDPI rankings, its clear the 2010 SEC was anything but balanced. The SEC West went 15-3 against their eastern division foes. Outside of Ole Miss, the west was an even more dominant 14-1 with the lone win being South Carolina's upset over Alabama. The outcome was similar in the bowl season. The west went 4-1, with the lone loss coming from Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl versus Ohio State. Meanwhile, the east went just 1-4 with Florida's win over Penn State in the Outback Bowl representing the only positive postseason outcome.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
No team significantly underperformed their expected record based on their down-to-down stats, but if one must be chosen, how about Kentucky. For years, the Wildcats have posted bad SDPI numbers, yet still managed to win about three conference games and play in a nondescript bowl. This year, the Wildcats actually posted mediocre numbers (especially on offense where they finished 3rd in the conference), yet thanks to a poor record in one-score games (1-3) and the worst turnover margin in the conference (-6 in SEC games), Kentucky won just a pair of league games.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Once again, there's not a great deal to quibble with here. However, the team with the biggest disparity between their SDPI rating and their finish in the league standings belongs to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs were very bad on offense (ahead of only Vandy) and a little above average on defense. However, they managed to eke out three one-score wins and finish the season ranked for the first time since 2000.

Conference Superlatives:

Best Offense: Arkansas 1.62
The Hogs topped 400 yards in every conference game and scored at least 30 points in every game but one. They needed all those yards and points because the defense was still below average.

Worst Offense: Vanderbilt -2.28
Vandy had a few decent games moving the football, gaining 400 yards against Kentucky and 333 versus Tennessee. However, they also had more than a few stinkers. They were held to 153 yards or fewer in games versus LSU, Georgia, Arkansas, and Florida.

Best Defense: Florida 1.37
The Gators chomped down on opposing offenses. The only SEC team to top 400 yards against them was Georgia.

Worst Defense: Vanderbilt -2.10
The 'Dores double-dipped in 2010, fielding both the worst offense and defense in the SEC. They began conference play with respectable performances against LSU and Ole Miss, limiting those two teams to just 389 yards per game. However, they imploded over their last six, allowing an average of 501 yards per game!

Auburn, Florida, and the Plexiglass Principle
On the surface, it may look like Auburn and Florida had extremely divergent seasons. Auburn finished undefeated and won their first national title since 1957, while Florida lost five games for the first time since 2004. However, both schools did post conference records that were drastically different from the ones they posted the season before. For Auburn, the change was very positive. The Tigers went from a 3-5 mark in 2009 to an unblemished 8-0 mark and SEC West championship in 2010. For Florida, the results were entirely dissimilar. The Gators went from an unblemished 8-0 mark and SEC East championship to a .500 record in the SEC. The Tigers improved by five games and the Gators declined by four games. What can this significant improvement and decline tell us about the teams in 2011? To attempt to answer that question, I looked at all SEC schools in the BCS era (1998-2010) that had either improved by five games or declined by four games in league play and how they performed in the year following their significant improvement or decline. Here are the results, first for those teams that featured marked improvement. As you would probably have guessed, improving by at least five games in league play is a relatively rare occurrence. Besides Auburn in 2010, it happened just three other times since 1998. With such a small number of observations, we can give a brief summary of the each team.
South Carolina 99-00
The Gamecocks not only went from winless in the SEC, but winless overall to a top-20 finish and five conference wins. 2000 marked the second year of the Lou Holtz regime and the end of a 21-game losing streak. The Gamecocks followed up their rise with an equally impressive 5-3 mark and another top-20 finish in 2001.
Arkansas 05-06
Arkansas lost a slew of close games in 2005 (four of their six league losses came by a combined 13 points). They rode the backfield tandem of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (and some new formation called the Wildcat) to the SEC West title in 2006. With McFadden and Jones still in the fold in 2007, they dipped to 4-4.
Ole Miss 07-08
Like South Carolina nearly a decade before, the Rebels went from winless in the SEC to 5-3. It took Lou Holtz two seasons to turn the tide in Columbia, but Houston Nutt accomplished the feat in his first year at the helm in Oxford. Quarterback transfer Jevan Snead led the Rebels to a Cotton Bowl win and top-20 finish. The Rebels were the darlings of the 2009 preseason, but failed to make the major breakthrough many pundits expected and actually slipped to 4-4.

Here are the results for those teams that declined significantly. Once again the sample is relatively small with just six teams besides Florida in 2010 fitting the bill.
Alabama 99-00
In 1999, Alabama won the SEC behind future NFL star Shaun Alexander. They began the 2000 season ranked number three in the country, but fell to UCLA in the season opener. It got worse from there as the Tide won only three league games. Head coach Mike DuBose was dumped and under new coach Dennis Franchione, the Tide improved by one game to 4-4 in 2001.
Kentucky 99-00
Kentucky played in their final bowl game under Hal Mumme in 1999, finishing 4-4 in the SEC. Their quarterback? Tim Couch? Nope. Jared Lorenzen? Nope. Dusty Bonner. Bonner transferred prior to the 2000 season and Lorenzen became the starter. He posted solid numbers, but the defense allowed nearly 35 points per game, the team went winless in the SEC, and Mumme was canned. Guy Morriss took over, but the Wildcats only improved to 1-7 in 2001.
Alabama 02-03
This marks the Tide's second, but not final, appearance on this list. Alabama actually won the SEC West in 2002, but was ineligible for postseason play. Head coach Dennis Franchione bolted to Texas A&M after the season and the Tide hired Mike Price. Coach Price paid a dear one for an alleged trip to a strip club and subsequent hotel tryst, never coaching a game for the Tide. The Tide then brought in Mike Shula, but the Tide won only two league games. He did get the Tide to a bowl game the following year, but they won just three SEC games.
Ole Miss 03-04
David Cutcliffe rode Eli Manning to a shared SEC West crown and Cotton Bowl title in 2003. After Manning became the number one pick in the draft, the team understandably declined in 2004, falling to 3-5 in the SEC. Unfortunately for Cutcliffe and Ole Miss, the coach was given the axe and replaced with Ed Orgeron. Orgeron proceeded to run the program further into the ground, winning just one SEC game in 2005 (and only three during his deplorable three-year tenure).
Tennessee 04-05
The Vols won oodles of close games in 2004. Six of their seven SEC wins came by a touchdown or less. In fact, they were the inspiration for my very first blog post. Their luck turned in 2005 and the team slipped to 3-5. Phil Fulmer had them back near the top of the SEC in 2006, when they won five league games.
Alabama 05-06
You again? After seemingly getting the program back amongst the nation's elite with six SEC wins and a Cotton Bowl berth behind a stout defense in 2005, Mike Shula lost his job after a 2-6 showing in 2006. Nick Saban was hired and the Tide managed a slight improvement to 4-4 in 2007.
Sample size is an issue here of course, but when projecting Auburn and Florida's respective 2011 seasons, it pays to take heed of the Plexiglass Principle. Teams that improve significantly in one season tend to decline the next and vice-versa. Without Cam Newton, they Tigers aren't likely to win another SEC title in 2011, but of the teams that improved by at least conference games, their average decline the following season was just a little over one win. Auburn still has a top-notch offensive mind in coordinator Gus Malzahn, so they while they may fade from the pinnacle of the national stage, they should be lurking around the nether regions of the top-25. Meanwhile, for Florida, the Gators should expect some improvement in 2011. Five of the six teams that declined significantly improved by at least one game the following season. The only team that did not improve was Ole Miss. While the Gators did undergo a coaching change like Ole Miss, Florida has infinitely more tradition and infrastructure. Plus, they didn't hire Ed Orgeron.

2010 Pac-10 SDPI

This week, we'll try to shed out East Coast bias as we head out west to take a look at the Pac-10, another league that will be getting a makeover in 2012. Once again, for a primer, here is the link to last year's Pac-10 post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Pac-10 regular season, conference play only, the average Pac-10 team gained and allowed 3533.5 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 661.93 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 359.76 yards. Cal gained 2629 yards and allowed 3010 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -1.37 = [(2629-3533.5)/661.93]. Their defensive SDPI was 1.46 = [(3533.5-3010)/359.76]. Their total SDPI was 0.09. This number ranked 6th in the Pac-10.

Here are the 2010 Pac-10 standings.Now here are the 2010 Pac-10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 10 teams) in parentheses.The Pac-10 produced a BCS National Championship Game participant, as well as a second BCS team in 2010, but may have suffered a bit in terms of national perception thanks to the fact that only four of the ten (Southern Cal had enough wins, but were banned from the postseason) conference teams attained bowl eligibility. The Pac-10 became the first BCS conference since the 2005 Big East to send fewer than five teams to bowl games. The 2010 Pac-10 was a top-heavy league. Oregon and Stanford dominated their peers out west, going 16-0 against the other eight schools with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points per game!

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
For the second year in a row, the Arizona State Sun Devils played better than their won/loss record showed. The Sun Devils were a shade above average on both sides of the ball, and should have probably finished with an extra league win, which would have gotten them to their first bowl game since 2007. However, the Sun Devils turned the ball over more than any Pac-10 team save UCLA and finished 1-3 in one-score conference games, resigning them to a third straight year of watching the postseason in Tempe.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
They may have closed the season with a nice hot streak, winning their final three regular season games, and upset a top-20 outfit in their bowl game, but Washington was still not quite ready for prime time. Four of their five league wins came by a touchdown or less (combined margin of 12 points), while each of their four losses came by at least 10 points (average margin of 29.5 points per game). The Huskies were slightly below average on both sides of the ball in 2010, so while their first postseason game since 2002 (and first win since 2000) is a nice bullet on Steve Sarkisian's resume, the rebuild ain't over yet.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Oregon 1.63
Chip Kelly's spread and shred topped the Pac-10 in offense for the fourth straight year! The Ducks were number one out west when Kelly was the offensive coordinator in 2007 and 2008, and have done nothing but continue that success since he assumed the head coaching role prior to the 2009 season.

Worst Offense: Cal -1.37
Guess who is taking back the play-calling duties in Berkeley? Jeff Tedford has tutored many a fine collegiate quarterback, but 2010 represented rock bottom for the Golden Bears as they were held below 300 yards of offense in two thirds of their conference games. That's quite a shame too, considering how good their defense was.

Best Defense: Cal 1.46
Speak of the devil. Southern Cal and Stanford maimed the Golden Bears to the tune of 1069 total yards and 96 total points. In their other seven league games, Cal held the opposition to an average of 277 yards and 16 points per game.

Worst Defense: Washington State -1.94
The Cougars have now finished dead last in the Pac-10 in defense for three straight seasons and for four of the six years of the SDPI era (2005-2010).

Washington State: From Worse to Bad
To say the Washington State Cougars have been stuck in a rut under head coach Paul Wulff would be putting it very mildly. In Wulff's three seasons, the Cougars have beaten just three IA schools, and have lost by at least 30 points 16 times! However, the Cougars did show a few signs of life in 2010. They beat a Pac-10 team for the first time since their (Cr)Apple Cup win over Washington in 2008 and were competitive in several losses (losing one score games to Washington and Cal and staying within two touchdowns of Stanford and UCLA). The following table will show you just how far the Cougars have come since Wulff's first season. As you can see, the Cougars were historically bad in 2008. They scored eight total offensive touchdowns in their nine conference games while allowing 59! To put that number in perspective, consider this: If we take away field goals, safeties, and non-offensive touchdowns and then assume each offensive touchdown scored by Washington State is worth seven points, while each offensive touchdown scored by their opponents is only worth a single point, the Cougars would still have been outscored in 2008! They improved a little in 2009, primarily on the defensive side of the ball where they shaved off more than a quarter of their touchdowns allowed. In 2010, they went from historically inept to merely last-place bad. They actually managed to scored touchdowns on a semi-regular basis while cutting into their touchdowns allowed slightly. The Cougars have hopes to be more competitive in 2011, as their junior quarterback Jeff Tuel posted solid numbers as a sophomore (nearly 60% completion rate, 18 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions), and sophomore receiver Marquess Wilson topped 1000 yards through the air as a freshman. A bowl game is probably out of the question, but Pullman could no longer be a punchline.

2010 Big 12 SDPI

The Big 12 will have a new look in 2011 with two fewer teams and one fewer championship game. However, before we bring the curtain down on the old Big 12, let's take one last look at this past season with SDPI. For a primer, here's the link to last year's SDPI post on the Big 12.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Big 12 regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average Big 12 team gained and allowed 3256.25 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 616.65 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 506.61 yards. Colorado gained 2923 yards and allowed 3453 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.54 = [(2923-3256.25)/616.65]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.39 = [(3256.25-3453)/506.61]. Their total SDPI was -0.93. This number ranked 9th in the Big 12.

Here are the 2010 Big 12 standings.Now here are the 2010 Big 12 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.At the top of the standings the 2010 season played out according to the SDPI ratings. The top-ranked team from the North Division (Nebraska) met the top-ranked team from the South Division (Oklahoma), with the top-ranked overall team (Oklahoma) emerging victorious. Elsewhere in Big 12 land, the Longhorns, Big 12 Champions and BCS National Championship Game participants in 2009, failed to qualify for the postseason, suffering their first losing record since 1997.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
This one is pretty easy to answer. Despite their 2-6 conference record, and cellar finish in the Big 12 South, Texas was actually a solid team on a down-to-down basis. Behind defensive coordinator Will Muschamp (now the head man at Florida), the Longhorns remained stout on the defensive side of the ball, ranking behind only Nebraska for top honors in the Big 12. The offense understandably suffered a decline with the loss of Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley, but was just a shade below average. All things being equal, a 5-3, or at worse 4-4 league record should have been expected. However, the Longhorns turnover margin hampered any chance they had of competing in the Big 12 South. The Longhorns forced fewer turnovers (11) than all but two Big 12 teams, and they committed the most turnovers (23) by far of any team. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert was mostly to blame, throwing 16 interceptions in eight league games. However, going forward Gilbert has the recruiting pedigree to be a star, and lets not forget his predecessor, Mr. McCoy, also had a bit of an interception problem as a sophomore.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Outside of Texas, there wasn't a great deal of disconnect between the actual standings and the SDPI ratings, but Missouri's underlying performance was not quite as strong as their division title (share) would indicate. The Tigers were a little below average on offense (hard to believe after their record breaking years under Chase Daniel) and above average on defense, making them a little better than average overall. The Tigers appeared to falter down the stretch (outside of their finale against an awful Kansas team) which brought their overall rating down. Through their first three games league games they outgained their league foes (including South Division co-champs Texas A&M and Oklahoma) by 52 yards per game. In their next four games (before their throttling of Kansas), the Tigers were outgained by 53 yards per contest.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Oklahoma State 1.48
In his first year as offensive coordinator for the Cowboys, Dana Holgorsen helped lead the Cowboys to a share of the Big 12 South title when most of the preseason prognosticators had called for a last place finish. You'll see him coordinating the West Virginia offense in 2011 and then in the head man's chair in 2012.

Worst Offense: Kansas -1.76
2007 is officially ancient history. In Turner Gill's first season, the Jayhawks were held below 300 yards in five of their eight league games. They did somehow manage to roll up 453 yards in their lone win over Colorado. However, just to show they didn't want to raise expectations heading into 2011, they gained 87 yards the next week versus Nebraska.

Best Defense: Nebraska 1.61
Bo Pelini does it again. In his three seasons as the Nebraska coach, the Cornhuskers have finished second, second, and first in the Big 12 in defense. The year before he arrived, they were dead last.

Worst Defense: Kansas -1.32
Yep 2007 is ancient history. if you're looking for bright spots, the Jayhawks performed much better in games against their division rivals in the North (426 yards per game allowed) than they did against teams from the South (599 yards per game allowed).

Texas Tech: Is the Offense Passing Away?
Mike Leach did several things during his decade-long run as head coach at Texas Tech. His teams always put up eye-popping offensive numbers, he presided over the most consistent run of success in Texas Tech history, and he may have locked Adam James in a shed. That last lapse in judgment got him fired, but what does it mean for the Texas Tech program? One year after his ouster, the program appears to have taken a step back. This past year, the Red Raiders posted their first losing season in Big 12 play since 2000, and for the first time since I have been calculating SDPI numbers (2005), the offense did not rank either first or second in the Big 12. In fact at just 0.20 standard deviations above average, the offense was about as un-Leach, at least in results, if not input as it could possibly be. Of course, a precursory glance at the numbers could tell you the offense declined, but exactly how much did it decline in relation to the rest of the conference? To answer this question, I looked at the passing numbers posted by Texas Tech in Big 12 play only for the past five seasons. The raw numbers as well as Tech's rank in the Big 12 in three key passing categories (completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, and passer rating) are included in the table below. The Red Raiders not only declined in raw statistics, but also in their rank within the conference. This decline was also across the board. After ranking either first or second in completion percentage in the conference in each of Leach's last four seasons, the Red Raiders fell to fifth in 2010. An even further descent occurred in yards per pass, where the Red Raiders fell to ninth and passer rating where they fell to eighth. Not only did the Red Raiders decline in every significant passing category, but outside of completion percentage, they were below average throwing the football! Head coach Tommy Tuberville and offensive coordinator Neal Brown did have the excuse that the system, while not new, was at least somewhat different from what Leach ran. However, they did not have the excuse that the personnel was different. Quarterback Taylor Potts was a senior who threw nearly 500 passes as a junior in 2009. In addition, their top-five receivers from 2009 all returned for duty in 2010. The Red Raiders do not have that luxury in 2011. Taylor Potts has exhausted his eligibility as have last season's top-two receivers, Lyle Leong and Detron Lewis. With that attrition on offense, the Red Raiders may fade further into the offensive abyss in the Big 12.

2010 Big 10 SDPI

Thus far we have examined the 2010 ACC and Big East races through the refractive lens of SDPI. We now turn our attention to a league that will be getting a makeover when the 2011 season starts, the Big 10. Here is the link to last year's Big 10 post if you are so inclined.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Big 10 regular season, conference play only, the average Big 10 team gained and allowed 3034.91 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 410.32 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 478.90 yards. Iowa gained 2770 yards and allowed 2895 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.65 = [(2770-3034.91)/410.32]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.29 = [(3034.91-2895)/478.90]. Their total SDPI was -0.35. This number ranked 7th in the Big 10.

Here are the 2010 Big 10 standings.
Now here are the 2010 Big 10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 11 teams) in parentheses.
While there was three-way ties at the top of the league standings, SDPI sees through the pseudo-reality and rightly crowns Ohio State as the King of the Midwest. Ohio State's lone league loss came on the road at SDPI runner-up Wisconsin. The good news going forward is that there will no longer be any more three-way ties (at least not for the privilege of representing the conference in the BCS, it could still be possible when it comes to representing the conference in the Big 10 Championship Game). Leaders and Legends, rejoice!

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
How about Illinois? The Illini actually rated out slightly better than co-champ Michigan State. Yet somehow, the Illini did not even manage a winning record in Big 10 play. How can this be? The usual suspect, turnovers, cannot be blamed for this one. The Illini actually had a solid differential of +8 in league play. The culprit here is clutch play in tight games. The Illini played in just two conference games decided by less than a touchdown. They lost them both. Contrast that to their four league wins that each came by at least 20 points. If lady luck had been more partial to the Illini, they could well be talked about as a potential darkhorse candidate to capture the inaugural Big 10 Leaders Division.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
No Big 10 teams exceedingly outperformed their SDPI numbers in 2010, but if we must choose one team that was not quite as good as their record indicated, it would have to be Michigan State. While they were a shade below average on offense, the Spartans boasted the best defense in the conference this side of Ohio State. They were able to hoist (at least a share of) their first conference crown since 1987 thanks to their unblemished mark in one-score games. The Spartans were also the beneficiary of a schedule that did not include league overlord Ohio State. The Spartans proved they were not quite ready for prime time in their two losses, when they were embarrassed by a solid, but not spectacular Iowa team and again by Crimson Tide, who took out their Iron Bowl frustrations on them in the Capital One Bowl (outscored by a combined 73 points in those two games).

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Michigan 1.77
In his swan song at Ann Arbor, Rich Rod finally fixed the offense. We'll see in a minute why despite this success, he is no longer employed.

Worst Offense: Purdue -1.93
The Boilermakers won their first two league games during which they averaged 336 yards and 24 points per game. They lost their last six during which they averaged 262 yards and 16.8 points per game.

Best Defense: Ohio State 2.06
The Buckeyes held six of their eight league opponents under 300 yards. Michigan gouged them the most with 351 yards. Had the Buckeyes allowed that many in every game, they still would have owned the third best defense in the league.

Worst Defense: Michigan -1.55
Outside of a solid showing against Purdue (256 yards allowed), the Wolverines were incapable of stopping any team. Somewhere, Lloyd Carr is smiling.

Leaders Versus Legends: Balanced Divisions?
The Big 10 will be undergoing a dramatic shift beginning in 2011 when they add the Nebraska Cornhuskers from the Big 12. The addition of Nebraska means the Big 10 will move to a division format and stage a championship game the first weekend in December to determine which teams earns the conference's automatic BCS bowl bid. The names of the divisions, Leaders and Legends, leave a little to be desired, but as a famous poet and playwright once said, what's in a name? The real question is, are the divisions balanced, or will it play out like the Big 12 where the South division winner emerged victorious in the Big 12 Championship Game nine of the last eleven years. On the surface, it appears the Leaders Division, consisting of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin would be the stronger of the two. Ohio State is the preeminent program in the conference, while Penn State and Wisconsin have shared the conference crown with the Buckeyes twice in the last three seasons. However, when we look at how the teams have fared versus teams slated to be in the opposite division over the past four seasons, we can see that outside of Ohio State, the Legends have held their own against the Leaders. The Leaders do have a 10-game edge in games played between what will soon be the two divisions since 2007, but if we remove Ohio State and their pristine, unblemished record, the Legends are actually 43-39 against the Leaders. Combine with that the fact that the Legends will be adding a Nebraska team that has won their division in the Big 12 the past two seasons, and the divisions are much more balanced than they appear at first glance.

2010 Big East SDPI

After reviewing the ACC last week, we now turn our attention to the Big East. The Big East ended the 2010 season without a single team ranked in the AP Poll, and also had the indignity of having its champion lose to Temple. if you're interested in mocking me, here's the link to last year's Big East post.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 Big East regular season, conference play only, the average Big East team gained and allowed 2280 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 371.84 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 433.51 yards. Louisville gained 2203 yards and allowed 2009 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.21 = [(2203-2280)/371.84]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.63 = [(2280-2009)/433.51]. Their total SDPI was 0.42. This number ranked 4th in the Big East.

Here are the 2010 Big East standings.
Now here are the 2010 Big East SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 8 teams) in parentheses.Connecticut became one of the most unlikely BCS bowl participants ever by winning their final five league games after an 0-2 start and ending the reign of two-time defensing champ Cincinnati. Pittsburgh and West Virginia were bridesmaids once again. Beginning in 2008, both the Mountaineers and Panthers have finished either tied for second or first place, but have yet to play in a BCS bowl.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
Based on SDPI, Cincinnati should have been one of the top teams in the Big East. The Bearcats boasted the top-ranked offense in the conference, and despite their poor showing on the defensive end, one would have expected them to at least finish with a winning record. Unfortunately for the kings of the Queen City, the Bearcats had a proclivity for turning the ball over and failed in their endeavor to take the ball away from their opponents.The Bearcats committed the most turnovers in the conference by far (averaging three per game) and forced the second fewest. When that happens even the best of teams will struggle to win games, and coupled with the Bearcats other defensive inefficiencies, it made for a long season for the defending Big East champs.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Obviously the team with the biggest discrepancy between their conference record and their SDPI numbers was league champion Connecticut. The Huskies won the Big East, but were statistically one of the weakest teams in the conference, and became arguably the weakest team to ever qualify for a BCS bowl. How did the Huskies do it? Remember that turnover chart earlier? If you don't, scroll up a few inches. The Huskies forced the most turnovers in the conference and boasted the league's best turnover margin. I wanted to look a closer at the dream season Connecticut experienced. The Huskies lost their first two league games and looked as if they could miss out on the postseason entirely. However, they won their final five games, beating co-champs West Virginia and Pittsburgh along the way to grab the tiebreaker advantage. What changed in the final five games versus the first two?As you can see, the Huskies were outgained by over 160 yards per game in their first two league losses. However, they didn't suddenly become dominant in their final five games. While they did improve on both sides of the ball, they were still outgained by about 55 yards per game over their five-game winning streak. The difference was two-fold. Turnovers and close games. The Huskies did not force a single turnover in their first two games, but they forced 17 in their final five games! The randomness and vagaries of close games also contributed to their success. The Huskies lost their league opener against Rutgers by three points. After that game, the Huskies owned crunch time, beating West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and South Florida each by three points or fewer.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Cincinnati 1.74
For the Bearcats, it was either feast or famine on offense. In their games against the top-3 Big East defenses (West Virginia, Pitt, and Syracuse), the Bearcats averaged only 274 yards and 9 points per game. In their other four league games, they averaged 526 yards and 38 points per game.

Worst Offense: Syracuse -0.97
The Orange, Huskies, and Bulls were all clustered close together near the bottom of the Big East in terms of offensive firepower, with the Orange ranking below the other two.

Best Defense: West Virginia 1.24
Only one Big East team, Pittsburgh, topped 300 yards against the Mountaineer defense. It really was a shame the offense could not pull their weight. The Mountaineers lost two conference games when they allowed 19 and 16 points respectively.

Worst Defense: Rutgers -1.70
The Scarlet Knights opened league play well enough, beating eventual champ Connecticut and holding them to just 284 yards of offense. Unfortunately, they would go on to lose their last six league games while allowing an average of 456 yards per game.

Running Down a Dream
Can you believe this November will mark five years since Rutgers burst onto the national scene with their program defining Thursday night upset of Louisville? My, how time flies. That win marked Rutgers first ever foray into the AP top-10 and though they failed to capitalize on the big win with a BCS bowl appearance, the Knights finished the season 11-2 and ranked number 12 in the nation. Many observers probably believed (and rightfully so) that Rutgers was poised to contend for the Big East crown for the next several seasons. However, in the four seasons after their 2006 breakthrough, the Knights have gone a rather pedestrian 12-16 against their conference foes and have failed to finish in the final polls, much less compete for a conference title (save for 2008 when they finished 5-2, one game back of Cincinnati). One reason for their failure to stay relevant since their shining moment on national television has been the decline of their running game.You may remember in 2006, the Knights had the services of a pair of future NFL running backs in Brian Leonard and Ray Rice. Rice was still toting the rock in 2007, but in the three seasons since his departure, the Knights have gone from an average running team, to one that is among the worst in the Big East. As Connecticut proved in 2010, the Big East is always one of the more wide-open BCS conference races in the nation. If the Knights are to do what many expected and claim a conference crown, they must get more production from their ground game.

2010 ACC SDPI

The offseason tradition continues. Today I proudly bring you, dear readers, the first installment of SDPI. For those new to the site, SDPI is my own personal rating system, stolen from Eddie Epstein, that I use to evaluate teams in each of the nation's 11 IA conferences. We'll begin, as always, with the BCS conferences and tackle those alphabetically before moving on to the so-called mid-majors. Without further adieu, here is the 2010 incarnation of the ACC in SDPI form. If you're interested, here's the link to last year's ACC article.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2010 ACC regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average ACC team gained and allowed 2963.583 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 424.06 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 406.36 yards. Maryland gained 2831 yards and allowed 2726 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.31 = [(2831-2963.583)/424.06]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.58 = [(2963.583-2726)/406.36]. Their total SDPI was 0.27. This number ranked 7th in the ACC.

Here are the 2010 ACC standings.

Now here are the 2010 ACC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.
2010 was a somewhat historic year for the ACC. For the first time since 2000, the ACC champion managed to navigate through the conference season without a loss. However, unfortunately for the reputation of the league, its champion also lost a non-conference game to James Madison. For the ACC Champion Virginia Tech Hokies, 2010 marked the first undefeated league campaign since their Michael Vick-led siege of the Big East in 1999.

So Who Was Better Than Their Record Showed?
According to SDPI, Miami was the league's best team by a significant margin. However, the Hurricanes lost at home to the two teams that played in the ACC Championship Game, and for good measure, decided to give Virginia their only league win. Why did Miami fair so poorly (relatively) despite glistening SDPI numbers? Turnovers, plain and simple.While their turnover margin was not terrible, their volume of turnovers was. Miami matched Duke with 22 turnovers in 8 conference games. Quarterbacks Jacory Harris and Stephen Morris played fast and loose with the football, throwing 12 interceptions in ACC play between them. However, what was especially damaging to the Hurricanes chances was that the turnovers came in bunches. In two of their league losses, to Virginia and Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes committed 11 turnovers (half of their league-leading total). That promiscuity with the pigskin is what cost Randy Shannon his job (the Hurricanes added 7 more turnovers in non-conference losses to Ohio State and South Florida) and is something new coach Al Golden will need to correct if he is to take Miami to their first ever ACC Championship Game.

So Who Was Worse Than Their Record Showed?
Scroll back up and look at that turnover margin table. I'll give you a minute. Virginia Tech was an amazing +17 in turnovers in ACC play with just 6 turnovers committed! That's how you go undefeated despite solid, but unspectacular SDPI numbers. But that's Beamer Ball right? Virginia Tech always has ridiculous turnover margins.While the Hokies are usually rank near the top of the ACC in turnover margin, that +17 number from 2010 appears to be a bit of an outlier. While the Hokies boasted a comparably fantastic margin in 2007, it shrunk from outstanding, to merely good in 2008. I would expect a similar result in 2011.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Miami 1.53
When they weren't turning the ball over, the Hurricanes were moving the ball with relative ease. Their lowest yardage output came in the conference opener against Clemson when they managed only 376 yards. If they had only averaged that number all season, they would have still ranked 8th in the conference.

Worst Offense: Wake Forest -1.96
After bidding adieu to one of the school's best quarterbacks in Riley Skinner, the Deacons struggled profoundly moving the ball in 2010. After opening conference play with 54 points in a win over Duke, the Deacons would manage just 55 total points in their next four conference games.

Best Defense: Clemson 1.39
The Tigers continued their run of outstanding play on the defensive side of the ball in 2010. Clemson has ranked either first or second in the ACC in defense each of the past five seasons.

Worst Defense: Duke -1.72
Outside of 2009, when they somehow ranked 8th, the Blue Devils have been either last or second-to-last in the ACC in defense every year since 2005.

The Descent
It was under-reported, at least by most of the college football media, but I found it interesting that both 2009 ACC Championship Game participants (Clemson and Georgia Tech) stumbled in 2010. Both posted losing overall records for the first time since 1998 (Clemson) and 1996 (Georgia Tech) respectively. Both slipped thanks to just one side of the ball. For Georgia Tech, it was their defense, which became a sieve. Their potent triple option offense was strong, but unable to compensate for their defensive shortcomings. For Clemson, it was their offense, which crumbled, and wasted the best defense in the ACC. Clemson's fall can be attributed to perhaps the most important aspect of modern football, the forward pass.Quarterback Kyle Parker deferred a few million dollars in order to return to Clemson, and he hoped, bring an ACC title to Death Valley. Unfortunately, Parker regressed in his return, and the Tigers could never realistically entertain thoughts of an ACC championship. Parker's completion percentage declined a little, but the significant declines came in his yards per attempt and touchdowns. Without a big play receiver (like Jacoby Ford or CJ Spiller), Clemson was unable to generate big plays in the passing game. They also had a very tough time scoring.The Tigers were anemic moving the football (as seen in their SDPI numbers), and they were equally inept scoring touchdowns. Their 16 total touchdowns in eight league games tied for second fewest in the conference with Wake Forest. Plus, the Tigers had by far the fewest passing touchdowns. Even the woeful passing attacks at Wake Forest and Boston College had more, as did the team that ran the ball on virtually every snap (Georgia Tech). Of course, all the blame should not fall at the feet of Kyle Parker. The Tigers top quartet of receivers in 2010 (DeAndre Hopkins, Jaron Brown, Dwayne Allen, and Jamie Harper), had a combined 28 receptions heading into 2010. All four return in 2011, so even without Kyle Parker, the Clemson offense has a good chance of improving even as they must break in a signal caller.

A Little About Homefield Advantage

While writing the Big 12 Compendium a few weeks ago, I was curious to find out how homefield advantage manifested itself in each conference. Since the conference landscape will profoundly shift in the fall of 2011 with, among other things, the Pac-10 adding two teams, the Big 12 losing two teams, and the Big 10 gaining one team, I decided to look back and analyze homefield advantage since the last seismic conference shift prior to the 2005 season. Since the beginning of the 2005 season, there have only been two minor alterations in conference alignment, with both occurring at the mid-major level. Temple joined the MAC in 2007 and Western Kentucky joined the Sun Belt in 2009 (they technically played an abbreviated league slate in 2008, but since they only played five of the other eight teams, I am disregarding that). Otherwise, each conference has been stable for the past six seasons.

With that out of the way, here is the cumulative home record for each conference since 2005 (includes conference games only).The Big 12 has enjoyed the most significant homefield advantage with its member schools winning roughly 60% of the time at home in league play. Homefield has mattered the least in the MAC with the home team winning just barely more than half the time in league play. In the aggregate, the home team has won on average about 56% of the time in conference play since 2005 (the All Conferences number).

The bigger question I wanted to answer when examining homefield advantage was which teams showed the biggest difference in their home and road performance. This analysis did not consider neutral site games, so the annual clashes such as Florida/Georgia in Jacksonville and Oklahoma/Texas in Dallas as well as any other neutral conference game were not included. So which teams had the largest difference in their home versus road conference winning percentage? The number one team will certainly surprise you.The Red Wolves from Arkansas State are one of the more formidable home teams in the country when facing their conference brethren. They are second to Troy in overall home record in Sun Belt play, sporting a 17-5 mark since 2005. However, away from Jonesboro, the Red Wolves are much more tame, posting just a 6-16 mark in Sun Belt road games. That is the worst road record among Sun Belt schools that have been members since 2005. Only Western Kentucky has been (slightly) worse on the road, with two wins in eight road games since coming aboard in 2009. While UTEP has been solid at home in Conference USA (their 15-9 mark is tied for fifth best), they have been the second worst road team, winning just four times in 23 games. Marshall has also struggled on the road in Conference USA. They have the same home mark as UTEP, and are just one game better on the road (5-18). In the Big East, Connecticut has the second best home record at 14-7, but is tied with Syracuse for the worst road mark at 5-16. In the MAC, Temple has dominated their conference opponents at home, going a league best 13-3 at Lincoln Financial Field. By contrast, the other ornithological tenants of the Linc (the Philadelphia Eagles) are just 10-6 in their last 16 home games. The Owls are more nocturnal on the road, posting just a 7-9 mark since joining the MAC. Three Big 12 teams are bunched rather closely together on this list. Colorado is decent at home (13-11), but just 4-20 on the road, including just 2-18 under the recently recently fired Dan Hawkins. The Buffs have lost 13 straight Big 12 road games, with their last win coming against Texas Tech in October of 2007. Oklahoma is a little difference case, as they are unbeaten in Norman (21-0), but a more human 13-7 on the road. Like Colorado, Kansas State has been respectable at home (12-11), but putrid on the road (4-19). Out west, the Bruins from UCLA have posted a solid home mark (17-10), including four wins over top-10 teams (Cal twice, Oregon, and Southern Cal), but are just 7-19 away from the Rose Bowl. UNLV has not been very good in any venue, but they have managed nine home conference wins since 2005. Away from Sin City, the Rebels have won just once since in 24 league games. Wisconsin is second only to Ohio State in terms of home Big 10 record (20-4). However, on the road the Badgers are just 12-12.

While Jonesboro, Arkansas may not be the most difficult place to win (I would say Boise, Norman, Fort Worth, or Columbus are the most arduous venues for visitors) it has conferred a significant advantage to Arkansas State when compared to the team's road performance.

The Big 12: A Compendium

As you may have heard, the 2010 football season marked the end of an era in college football. Beginning with the 2011 season, the Big 12 will have two fewer members, as original Big 8 member Nebraska, and longtime conference rival Colorado move on to the Big 10 and Pac-10 respectively. The Big 12 will continue to exist, at least for a time, as a smaller 10-team conference sans divisions. With that being the case, i thought it would be interesting to look back on the Big 12 as it existed for a decade and a half and provide you with some interesting statistical tidbits and minutiae. Enjoy.

Your League Overlord Is...
Well, its debatable. Oklahoma has the most Big 12 Championships with 7. The other 12 teams in the conference only have 8 combined titles, with Texas and Nebraska being the only other teams with multiple titles (3 and 2 respectively). Oklahoma also has the most division titles with 8. Again Nebraska and Texas are second and third in this respective category with their roles reversed. Nebraska has 6 division titles and Texas has 5. However, despite their dominance, particularly since Bob Stoops arrived in Norman before the 1999 season, the Sooners do not own the league's best conference record.That distinction belongs to Texas. Oklahoma does own the best record in the conference since 1999, edging out Texas 78-18 to 76-20. The best team to never appear in the Big 12 Championship game is obviously Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are tied with Kansas State for the 4th best record since the inception of the conference, but thanks to their placement in the South division with Texas and Oklahoma, they were never able to win the division (though they did tie for the crown in 2008). The Red Raiders are also tied with Texas for the fewest losing seasons in conference play with 2, and they are also the only Big 12 team to be bowl eligible in each season of the Big 12's existence. 11 of the league's 12 teams have at least tied for their respective division crowns, with the lone exception of course, being Baylor. In fact this past season, the Bears posted their first-ever non-losing season in Big 12 play when they went 4-4. However, before we start dumping on the Bears and their lack of success, it also bears (nice eh?) mentioning that Kansas and Iowa State have had only one winning season in conference play apiece. Kansas, as you may recall, went 7-1 in 2007 on their way to the Orange Bowl, while Iowa State managed a 5-3 mark back in the year 2000.

Protecting This House
Which Big 12 team has been the best at defending its home turf? The answer, will not shock you.Oklahoma narrowly edges Texas as the best home team in the Big 12's existence. Oklahoma moved into the top spot after the Longhorns went winless at home in the Big 12 in 2010. After losing in Austin just 3 times during Mack Brown's first 12 years in the lone star state, the Longhorns amazingly lost all 4 of their Big 12 home games this past season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has lost just once in Norman to a Big 12 foe under Bob Stoops (it came in 2001 to Bedlam rival Oklahoma State). You'll notice Oklahoma and Texas have significantly fewer home games than the other 10 Big 12 teams. This is because they each forfeit a home game every other year in order to play each other at the state fair in Dallas.

Road Warriors
And who has performed the best in the road? Again, the answer is not likely to surprise you.Texas and Oklahoma are once again tops in the conference, this time in true road record. These games comprise only 'true' road games, so any neutral site game (including every Oklahoma/Texas Red River battle) is not considered. Nebraska joins the Longhorns and Sooners as the only other Big 12 team with a winning record in road games. Baylor has been by far the worst road team in Big 12 play. In fact, they did not win their first Big 12 road game until 2005, the 10th year of the league's existence. 2010, as mentioned earlier, not only marked Baylor's first .500 or better season in the Big 12, but it also marked the first time they managed more than a single road win. The Bears defeated both Colorado and Texas on the road in 2010. The victory over Colorado means the Buffs are currently the only team to ever lose multiple times to Baylor at home in Big 12 play (Baylor also beat them in 2006).

The Biggest Homefield Advantage Is In...Lubbock?!
That's right. Texas Tech has the largest discrepancy between their record at home and their record in 'true' road games. The Red Raiders win over 70% of the time in Lubbock, but see their winning percentage drop to just over 42% on the road.Colorado also enjoys a significant homefield advantage (compared to their road performance) playing in Boulder. Texas has shown the smallest difference between their home and road record, meaning they are just as tough to beat on the road as they are in Austin (usually).

Using the Point Spread to Analyze Bowl Performance

If you spent any time this bowl season watching ESPN after New Year's Day, you no doubt heard the talking heads going on and on about how 'awful' the Big 10 was. They loved to site and ridicule in particular the league's 0-5 mark on January 1st. However, what they failed to mention was that all 5 Big 10 teams were underdogs in those games, with Northwestern (9 and a half point dogs to Texas Tech) and Michigan State (10 point dogs to Alabama) coming in as prohibitive underdogs. In order to come up with a more sophisticated way to look at how a conference (or team) performs in the bowl season, it would help to know the probability they had of winning their bowl game. One way to estimate win probability is to use the point spread or Vegas line. While the point spread is to some degree influenced by public opinion (in the form of line shifts), it is for the most part an unbiased rating system. In order to determine how likely a team with a given point spread was to win a particular game, I looked at all games played between IA teams from 2005-2009 where there was a point spread of at least one point (i.e. the game was not a pick em' or had a half point favorite) and determined who won the actual game (covering the spread was not important in this exercise). I then (somewhat) arbitrarily divided the results into difference ranges. They are listed in the table below.For the most part, the numbers are pretty intuitive. When a team is favored by less than a field goal, the game result is usually a coin flip, with the favorite prevailing just over 50% of the time. When the margin increases to at least a field goal, but less than a touchdown, the favorite wins nearly 60% of the time. You can peruse the rest of the table for yourself, and see if you can guess the 2 teams that lost as favorites of 30 points or more (the answer is at the bottom of this post). I'll give you a hint, they both happened in 2007 and occurred within 2 weeks of each other.

It is pretty simple to use these probabilities to estimate how many games a conference 'should have' won in the 2010 bowl season. I'll go through the numbers for the Big 10 and then show you how each conference performed. The Big 10 had 8 teams participating in the 2010 bowl season. Ohio State was a 3.5 point favorite over Arkansas, meaning they had roughly a .599 chance of winning the game based on similar point spreads over the last 5 years. Northwestern was 9.5 point dog to Texas Tech meaning they had about a .254 chance of winning (that is 1 minus the chance of a 9.5 point favorite winning or 1-.746). Michigan State was a 10 point dog to Alabama, giving them a .254 chance of winning. Penn State was a 7 point dog to Florida, giving them a .295 chance of winning. Michigan was a 5 point dog to Mississippi State, giving them a .401 chance of winning. Wisconsin was a 3 point dog to TCU, giving them a .401 chance of winning. Iowa was a 3 point dog to Missouri, giving them a .401 chance of winning. And finally, Illinois was a 1.5 dog to Baylor, giving them a .492 chance of winning. Add all those win probabilities up and we come up with 3.097 expected wins for the Big 10 based on the point spread. The Big 10 actually won 3 bowl games (Ohio State, Iowa, and Illinois), meaning they underperformed their expected win total slightly. Here is how every conference performed in the 2010 bowl season.The Big 10 was a respectable 7th among all 12 conferences. They were 6th of 11 if we remove the independents which is not really a conference and only includes 3 teams (Army, Navy, Notre Dame). The conference that performed the worst by far was the Big 12, and yet there was hardly a whimper of their poor performance on ESPN. The main culprit for the Big 12's bowl woes was Nebraska. The Cornhuskers entered the bowl season as the 3rd largest favorite (after Oklahoma and Boise), but were upset by the 14 point dog Washington Huskies. In a nice twist of fate, the Huskers are leaving the conference that performed the worst in the 2010 bowl season and joining the conference that was perceived to have performed the worst.

Southern Cal to Stanford (as 41 point favorites) and Louisville to Syracuse (as 37 point favorites) are the 2 teams to lose as 30+ point favorites.

2010 Bowl Preview: Part IV

29 bowl games down, just 6 to go. With the interesting way the bowl season is set up this year, the final week features teams of varying degrees of competency. There is of course, the national title game next Monday. However, in between we have games involving the MAC champion (Miami of Ohio), a 6-6 also ran from the Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee), a co-Big East champ (Pitt), and a co-WAC champ (Nevada) just to name a few. In all, these final 6 bowl games include teams from 9 of the 11 IA conferences (only Conference USA and the Mountain West are absent). And just in case you were wondering, the bowl locks went 3-2 this postseason (narrowly missing a 4-1 effort thanks to Wisconsin's late score against TCU).

Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, Louisiana
Ohio State versus Arkansas
Ohio State -3.5
As consistent as a New Year's hangover, every January the Buckeyes are playing in a BCS bowl game. Since Jim Tressel arrived in Columbus in 2001, the Buckeyes this Sugar Bowl marks the 8th BCS bowl game he has led the Buckeyes to (and 6th consecutive). Last season, the Buckeyes exorcised some BCS demons by upsetting Oregon in the Rose Bowl, breaking a 3-game BCS bowl losing streak. Now the Buckeyes look to exorcise an even bigger demon, winning a game against the SEC. In their most recent high-profile clashes with the SEC, the Buckeyes were embarrassed by Florida in 2006 and then by LSU in 2007. Can they salvage a modicum of national respect against Arkansas? The Buckeyes once again boasted the best defense in the Big 10 (the 5th time in the 6 years I have been calculating SDPI data that they have accomplished this feat). The offense was also quite proficient, ranking 3rd in the conference. Their defense will be challenged by an Arkansas offense that was tops in the SEC (thanks to their late-season run, they passed eclipsed Auburn as the best in the conference). However, while the defense was improved over their last place finish in 2009, they were still a below average 8th in the SEC. I think Ohio State will finally get a win over the SEC in this game, but I wouldn't trust them laying 3 and a half points.


Go Daddy Dot Com Bowl
Mobile, Alabama
Middle Tennessee State versus Miami of Ohio
Middle Tennessee -1
Somehow Middle Tennessee State made it to a bowl game and is actually favored. I don't say this to knock the Blue Raiders, I just find it hard to believe that Vegas, and the betting public view them as superior to the MAC champions. Middle Tennessee became the first Sun Belt team to win 10 games last season, and looked poised to challenge Troy for the Sun Belt title. However, the offense sputtered, and the defense declined as well. Middle Tennessee opened the year with a 3-6 mark, with the only respectable losses coming to Troy and Georgia Tech (the Blue Raides gave Memphis their only win in a 1-11 debacle). They managed to win their final 3 games, with two coming by a single point. To be fair, one did come against league champion Florida International. They enter the Go Daddy Bowl looking for their second ever bowl win and will face a team making its first postseason appearance since 2004. The Redhawks went from worst to first in 2010. They finished dead last in the MAC East in 2009 with a 1-7 mark (1-11 overall), but rebounded to go 7-1 in the conference in 2010 and upset Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game. Their head coach, Mike Haywood, bolted for the greener pastures of Pitt after their stunning MAC title, but as you may have heard, will never coach a game there. Interim coach Lance Guidry will coach the team in the bowl before Don Treadwell takes over. The Redhawks were very balanced in the MAC, finishing 4th on offense and 3rd on defense. They appear to be the stronger team here, and taking them on the moneyline should be a smart move.

Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas
LSU versus Texas A&M
LSU -1
I think most, if not all, Texas A&M fans would have been ecstatic if you had told them at the beginning of the season that their final destination for the 2010 campaign would be the Cotton Bowl. The Aggies had their best season in a decade and actually won a share of the Big 12 South for the first time since 1998. The Aggies looked to be in for another mediocre season after a 3-game losing streak left them at 3-3 halfway through the season. In hindsight, all the losses were respectable, with each coming to teams that managed to win at least 10 games (Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri), and two coming by seven points or fewer. After the final loss at home to Missouri, the Aggies won 6 straight, including victories over Big 12 Championship Game participants Oklahoma and Nebraska, and a win over arch-rival Texas that kept the 'Horns out of the bowl picture. The Aggies were very balances this season, ranking 4th in the Big 12 on offense and 5th on defense. The LSU Tigers were their usual down-to-the-wire selves, winning 6 games by a touchdown or less (often as heavy favorites). To be fair, both their defeats were also close, and both came on the road to BCS bowl participants (Auburn and Arkansas). LSU won games with a fantastic defense (2nd best in the SEC). Unfortunately, their offense was inconsistent and below average, ranking only 7th in the SEC. As the spread suggests, this game appears to be a toss-up, but it may be a good idea to take LSU. The Tigers are 4-1 in bowl games under Les Miles, with their 4 wins all coming by at least 14 points. Their lone lass came last season to Penn State by just two points. For Texas A&M, they have gone nearly a decade since tasting postseason victory. Since winning the 2001 Gallery Furniture Bowl over TCU, the Aggies have lost 4 straight bowl games, with 3 of the defeats coming by at least 24 points.


BBVA Compass Bowl
Birmingham, Alabama
Pitt versus Kentucky
Pitt -3.5
The Pitt Panthers look to become the first of the Big East's 3 co-champions to win a bowl this postseason. West Virginia was upset by NC State and Connecticut was blown out by Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. Pitt once again began the year with visions of a BCS bowl appearance, but were unable to follow through. Though they shared the league title, the lack of a breakthrough season cost Dave Wannstedt his job. Unfortunately for the school, their pick to replace Wannstedt, Mike Haywood, was also let go thanks to a domestic violence charge. Defensive coordinator Phi Bennett will coach the Panthers in the bowl. The Panthers were a solid number two in the Big East this season, ranking second on both offense (behind Cincinnati) and defense (behind West Virginia) in the conference. The Panthers did not distinguish themselves outside the conference, losing close games to Utah and Notre Dame, and getting waxed by Miami. For Pitt to get to 8 wins for the third straight season, they must beat a Kentucky team playing in its 5th straight bowl game. I know the bowl season has become a watered down display of mediocrity, but Kentucky still deserves props, as from 1977 to 2005, they played in just 5 bowl games. Kentucky featured their best offense (3rd in the SEC) since Andre Woodson departed, but alas, their defense was once again deplorable, ranking just 10th in the SEC. Pitt should probably win this game, but with the turmoil surrounding the program, I would stay away from this one.


Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco, California
Nevada versus Boston College
Nevada -8
After the NFL playoffs have concluded on Sunday evening, tune in here to see one of the best dual-threat college quarterbacks ever. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has rushed for 1000 yards each of the past 3 seasons. In addition, he has also passed for at least 2000 yards for 4 straight seasons. Kaepernick is the perfect player to run head coach Chris Ault's pistol offense, and with the Wolfpack's upset of Boise, Kaepernick and company finally earned a share of the elusive WAC championship. To the surprise of no one, Nevada boasted the best offense in the WAC. While their defense was not great by any means, they did manage a decent 4th place showing in the conference. The marks Nevada's 6th straight bowl game under Chris Ault, but they have lost 4 straight since winning the Hawaii Bowl in 2005. To break their bowl losing streak and potentially become one of two WAC teams to finish in the top 10 (its a long shot as they are currently ranked 13th), the Wolfpack must beat a Boston College team with a fantastic defense, but a terrible offense. Boston College closed the year on a 5-game winning streak after a 2-5 start. However, in those 5 wins, the Eagles still only managed to average 18.6 points per game. None of the 3 players the Eagles tried at quarterback were able to throw more touchdowns than interceptions. Seemingly, their only offensive threat is running back Montel Harris who rushed for over 1200 yards this season. Can the fine Boston College defense hold down the Wolfpack ground game enough for them to fly away with the upset? This seems to be a game that Boston College will keep close and that will subsequently be decided in the final moments, or one where a key turnover here or there by the Eagles will lead to an avalanche of Nevada points. Don't make a play here, but stay up to watch Mr. Kaepernick in his final college game.


BCS National Championship Game
Glendale, Arizona
Auburn versus Oregon
Auburn -3
The BCS National Championship Game seems likely to be a high-scoring affair. I think it will be pretty high-scoring, but with the amount of time off since these teams last played (37 days between games for both teams), I think we could be in for a slow start with a lot of offensive misfires. Once the games gets settled though, we should be in for a treat. Oregon boasted the top-ranked offense in the Pac-10, and also featured a solid defense (3rd in the conference). The Ducks only played in one game decided by a single score, their skin of the teeth 15-13 win over Cal. Their other 11 wins all came by at least 11 points. On the other sideline, the Tigers from Auburn finished second in the SEC on offense (behind Arkansas) and a disappointing 7th on defense. Unlike Oregon, seemingly every game, particularly early was an adventure for Auburn. 5 of their first 8 wins (and 5 of their first 6 against BCS conference teams) came by 8 points ore fewer, with 3 decided by a field goal. The Tigers appeared to get things rolling down the stretch, as their only close win in their final 5 games was the great comeback over Alabama (won by a single point). Can Oregon stop the SEC's run of 4 straight BCS championships? They certainly have a good a chance as anyone, but if you forced me to make a pick here, it would probably be Auburn.