The Magnificent Seven: Week II

The opening weekend of college football could have gone better, but at least we avoided a total disaster after an 0-3 start. And we did go 2-1 on Saturday, so you know, there's that. Anyway, the season is long, so we have ample time to regroup and get better (or fall further into the abyss). As always, home teams in BOLD.

Last Week: 2-5

Overall 2-5

Western Kentucky +7 Army

Say what you will about the Helton Brothers (Clay and Tyson), but they are at least self-aware enough to realize when they need to hire an outsider to fix their offense. Clay brought the Air Raid to LA when he hired Graham Harrell prior to the 2019 season and has gone 14-6 since (11-9 in previous twenty games). Meanwhile, after pairing solid CUSA defenses with bad CUSA offenses in his first two seasons, Tyson looked for offensive firepower at the FCS level by hiring Houston Baptist offensive coordinator Zach Kittley and bringing in Houston Baptist quarterback Bailey Zappe. 

Zappe threw for over 10,000 yards at Houston Baptist and looked the part in his first game as a Hilltopper, throwing for over 400 yards and seven touchdowns. It came against an FCS opponent, but the 587 total yards were the most by the team since 2017. The opponent in this game will ensure the scoring is muted, what with their ground dominant attack, but I expect Western Kentucky to retain most of their efficiency if not their cumulative numbers. The real question is, can they cover this number against an Army team that entered their opener as an underdog and left with a victory of more than thirty points. While Army deserves credit for smashing Georgia State on the road, games against competent triple option teams can go sideways in a hurry. The limited possessions and the knowledge that those possessions matter more than a 'normal' game can cause teams to press. Once Georgia State fell behind by two scores, their game plan was likely jettisoned. Could the same thing happen to Western Kentucky? Certainly, but at least in this spot, you are catching points, which is exactly where you want to be when betting against Army. Under Jeff Monken, Army is just 9-12 ATS as a home favorite. In this section of the internet, we support the troops, but Army is laying too many points against what should be an explosive Group of Five offense. Take the Hilltoppers and the touchdown Army is spotting them. 

California +11.5 TCU

Cal's opener against Nevada was a microcosm of the Justin Wilcox era. The Golden Bears held a prolific offense in check (Nevada averaged over 30 points per game last season and has a potential NFL quarterback starting for them), but the offense piddled around and the team dropped a tight game. Since Wilcox took over prior to the 2017 season, Cal has scored less than 20 points sixteen times in forty games against FBS opponents. In addition, more than half of their games against FBS competition have been decided by a touchdown or less (10-11 record in those games). A little more offensive punch would have the Golden Bears in contention for the Pac-12 North title. As it stands, they have not posted a winning record in conference play since 2009! Despite those offensive struggles, they are a great play as they head to Fort Worth catching ten points. TCU dispatched Duquesne with relative ease on Saturday, but the Horned Frogs have not done great as a home favorite since stepping up to the Big 12. 

In that span, they are 13-17 ATS as a home favorite against Power 5 (mostly Big 12 opponents). However, notice when they had their best run of success. With Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson, the Horned Frogs went 8-1 ATS as a home favorite in 2014 and 2015. However, without those two stud offensive stars, the Horned Frogs are just 5-16 ATS over the other seven seasons. That poor ATS showing also includes ten outright home losses as a betting favorite! TCU is a better team than Nevada, but Nevada has a better quarterback and Cal held that offense to 22 points. I don't expect a repeat of the infamous Cheez-It Bowl battle between these two teams, but Cal's defense will do enough to keep them within this number. 

Iowa State -4.5 Iowa

The Covid-19 pandemic deprived us of one of the more underrated college football rivalries in 2020. Iowa and Iowa State did not play for the first time since the nation's bicentennial. Now, after a one year hiatus, the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy (or El Assico if you prefer) will resume. Both heartland teams won their openers, but they did so in vastly different ways. Iowa jumped out to a early lead over Indiana thanks to a long run and a pick six and were never really threatened. Meanwhile, Iowa State fell behind Northern Iowa early and while they were never really in danger of losing, didn't offer a lot in terms of aesthetics in a 16-10 win. The victory over the Panthers continued a trend of struggling against FCS opponents for the Cyclones under wunderkind coach Matt Campbell. Under Campbell, the Cyclones have played five FCS opponents (Northern Iowa four times and Drake once). They have either lost the game outright (once) or won by less than a touchdown (thrice) in four of the five games. In other words, don't read too much into their closer than expected victory. But do take a deeper dive into the Iowa box score. While the Hawkeyes easily beat the Hoosiers, their starting quarterback completed less than half his passes and the team benefitted from two defensive touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns are highly volatile and typically have an outsized impact on both game flow and game outcome so consider that when handicapping the Hawkeyes going forward. When looking at the recent history of this game, Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz finds himself in a position he has not been in for more than two decades. Ferentz became head coach at Iowa in 1999 and his first two teams were underdogs to the Cyclones. They lost and failed to cover in both games. However, in the past nineteen games in this series, Iowa has entered as the betting favorite. Ferentz has done well straight up in this series, going 12-9 with wins in the past five. However, he has not done as well ATS, posting a 7-13-1 mark (although typically in the role of favorite). I think this line is depressed a bit thanks to the disparate results these two teams delivered in their respective openers. If the betting public still thinks Iowa State should be favored after their poor showing against Northern Iowa, who am I to argue? Take the Cyclones to get their first win in this series since 2014 and cover this number in the process. 

NC State -2.5 Mississippi State

If NC State can win this game, it may be time to come to start asking if they are the second best team in the ACC. In you haven't heard, the conference did not exactly have a banner weekend to begin the 2021 season. Clemson failed to score a touchdown against Georgia, Miami learned just how far they are from elite against Alabama, North Carolina lost to a team that wants its coach fired, Louisville made the Ole Miss defense look like a legitimate SEC unit, Georgia Tech lost to a MAC team that hadn't won a game since 2019, and Duke lost to Charlotte. Other than that, things were great. Of course, with the ACC being down, this presents NC State an opportunity to win their first conference title since 1979. I'll note the Wolfpack do get Clemson at home in a few weeks, so any hopes for a division or conference title hinge on them beating the Tigers. Even if they don't quite have the goods to beat the Tigers, the ACC schedule gives them an opportunity to finish in the AP top ten for the first time in school history. Befitting a team that has never finished in the top ten of the final AP Poll, NC State usually boots a game in an otherwise strong season. A few recent examples: In 2018, NC state was 6-2 and ranked 22nd when they lost at home as a massive favorite to Wake Forest. The 2017 team finished 9-4 and in the lower reaches of the AP Poll, but things could have been much better had they not dropped their opener to South Carolina. The 2002 team opened the season 9-0, but dropped three straight ACC games to the likes of Georgia Tech, Maryland, and Virginia (all by a touchdown or less) to miss out on an ACC title. Will the Wolfpack look back on 2021 and rue the game against Mississippi State as one that derailed a special season? Probably. But I'll back them anyway. Mississippi State staged a twenty point second half rally to edge Louisiana Tech in their opener. The defeat marked fifth time Louisiana Tech has lost to a Power Five team under Skip Holtz by a touchdown or less, as well as the third time they have lost to an SEC team by a single point. That being said, Holtz has only himself to blame as he played for a long field goal at the end of the game and was punished by the Football Gods. But I digress. Mississippi State is improved over last season, and I expect them to win a few games in the SEC (especially with the unresolved defensive issues at LSU), but there is a reason this spread has shifted so far in NC State's favor (Mississippi State opened as a favorite). Despite their history, I think NC State gets the win on the road and covers this short number. 

Florida International -1 Texas State

Not sure I understand this line. Is Florida International's 'winless' 2020 impacting this line more than it should? Yes, the Panthers technically finished 2020 with no wins, and were the only FBS team to drop a game to an FCS team (in the Fall), but I'm willing to give Butch Davis a mulligan. The Panthers won 23 games in their first three seasons under Davis and were especially good at home in that span, going 12-5 in home games against FBS competition. Prior to the season, I expected a return to form for FIU, and their opener against Long Island did not dissuade me. I never like to read too much into a result against an overmatched FCS opponent, but the Panthers dominated the Sharks as one would expect. Now the Panthers will look to build off that win as the Bobcats roll into town. Texas State hosted an in-state Power Five opponent (Baylor) last week, and while the final score was relatively close, Baylor outgained the Bobcats by more than two yards per play. Now the Bobcats have to go on the road where they have not enjoyed great success as an FBS program. 

Texas State joined FBS in 2012, and in their first game, won on the road as a massive underdog. Since then, the road has not been as kind to them. In fact, their road record has gotten worse under each successive head coach. Their only road win under Jake Spavital came last season against Louisiana-Monroe, which was (and is) one of the worst teams in college football. This game feels eerily similar to the second game Texas State played in 2020. They opened the season with a closer than expected loss to a more prestigious in-state school (SMU) and were over-valued heading into their next game (home loss as a touchdown favorite against Texas-San Antonio). All FIU has to do is win, so grab the value here.  

Missouri +5 Kentucky

Was Kentucky's home win against Louisiana-Monroe that impressive? Yes, the Wildcats rolled up over 500 yards on the Warhawks at over eight yards per play and held them to under 100 yards of total offense. However, Louisiana-Monroe barely qualifies as an FBS team. Against a schedule that included zero Power Five teams last season, the Warhawks were outscored by 26 points per game on the way to a winless season. Perhaps not surprisingly, they elected to start over by hiring a new coach. Perhaps surprisingly, that new coach was Terry Bowden. Bowden did hire Rich Rodriguez as his offensive coordinator (outside of the money of course, do you think he regrets taking the Michigan job all those years ago?), but neither Rome nor Monroe were built in a day. Kentucky's opening romp should be viewed similarly to beating an FCS opponent. They should be expected to win, but we can't draw any grand conclusions from the blowout. Meanwhile, Missouri also won their opener, but were not nearly as impressive against a game Central Michigan team. The Chippewas hung around and lost by just ten points. While the final score was relatively close, Missouri did a better job in the box score, outgaining Central Michigan by more than a yard per play. After their respective tune ups, both teams will look to get off to an good start in SEC play. The underdog has won four of the past five games in this series and covered in all five. I expect more of the same on Saturday. Mark Stoops has done a fine job at Kentucky, but he has not delivered for bettors as a home favorite. In SEC play, Kentucky is just 5-9 ATS as a home favorite under Stoops, and while the Wildcats did cover two times in the role last season, those covers came against a Mississippi State team just getting their sea legs and a South Carolina team that had checked out under an interim coach. Look for Missouri to leave Lexington with an outright win on Saturday night. 

San Diego State +2 Arizona

San Diego State looked less than impressive in their opener against New Mexico State. The Aztecs went to half down 10-0 against the Aggies, but staged a rally in the second half to win comfortably. However, they did not come close to covering the massive spread. As they have done for the past decade or so, San Diego State ran the ball and played good defense. The Aztecs rushed for over 250 yards at six yards a pop and held New Mexico State to ten points. However, their passing attack was atrocious. Quarterback Jordon Brookshire completed just over a third of his passes (somehow San Diego State is ahead of three other teams in completion percentage this season) and barely topped 100 yards through the air. Those archaic passing numbers will probably prevent San Diego State from getting to the Mountain West Championship Game, especially with Fresno State and Nevada looking strong, but the team should do enough to get back to a bowl game for the eleventh time in the past twelve seasons. Along the way, they should be able to get another Pac-12 scalp for the trophy case. Since 2011, San Diego State is an impressive 6-6 straight up against Pac-12 opponents, with their most recent win coming in 2019 at UCLA. Arizona showed some spunk in their opener, hanging with BYU after falling behind 21-3. Quarterback Gunner Cruz played well at times, throwing for over 300 yards, but he also threw a pick in the endzone and took four sacks. San Diego State has a good enough defense and ground game to win outright with little help from their quarterback. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week I

College football is back! And with it, some (hopefully) accurate picks from me. After a disjointed 2020 season, hopefully things will be closer to normal in 2021 despite the pandemic raging in the background. Let's enjoy what we have because we never know when college football may be taken away from us. As always, home teams in BOLD.

East Carolina +10 Appalachian State @ Charlotte

The undercard of the Duke's Mayo Classic helps ring in the first full weekend of college football on Thursday evening. The Pirates and Mountaineers have played 31 times on the gridiron, but this marks their first meeting as FBS programs (App State made the jump in 2014). East Carolina has won the past six, but the teams have only met twice in my lifetime (2009 and 2012). In fact, this will mark the first time Appalachian State has faced a team from the American Athletic Conference since joining FBS. In regular season play, Appalachian State has posted a middling non-conference record both straight up and ATS. 

I used the regular season qualifier because the Mountaineers have been superb in bowl games, winning all six they have played and covering four of them. While the bulk of Appalachian State's non-conference losses have come against Power Five teams, so too has the bulk of their wins come against overmatched foes from Conference USA. East Carolina (like a lot of the Group of Five) is a former member of Conference USA. However, the Pirates graduated to the AAC several years ago and while that has hurt their overall record, it has not hurt them against other mid-majors. East Carolina typically schedules a lot of ACC opponents, and thus have played only five non-conference games against fellow Group of Five teams since joining the AAC in 2014. In that limited sample, they are 3-2 both straight up and ATS. The non-conference schedule is more manageable this season, with South Carolina representing the lone Power 5 opponent (and that is going by the technical definition) so I expect a return to the postseason for the Pirates and third-year head coach Mike Houston. That run to the postseason should start with a competitive game against one of the top teams in the Sun Belt. 

Old Dominion +31 Wake Forest

Thanks to Phil Steele's magazines and the Goldsheet site, I have roughly three decades worth of point spread information at my fingertips. It will probably not surprise you that Wake Forest has rarely been a four-touchdown favorite against an FBS opponent. In fact, since at least 1993, they have never been a four-touchdown favorite against an FBS team. 

In a limited sample, the Demon Deacons are 1-1 ATS as a similar massive favorite. Extrapolating from a two game sample will not tell you much, but there is another angle to look at here. To my chagrin, Wake Forest was not ranked in the preseason AP Poll. As such, we can classify them as an unranked team (I'll pause here to make sure you follow). Surprisingly, in the College Football Playoff era (since 2014), 49 unranked teams have been favored by at least 30 points against an FBS opponent. Those 49 teams have not done well covering those large numbers. The teams have combined for a 17-31-1 ATS record. That is a shade higher than 35%. And the numbers are basically the same whether we look at Power Five or Group of Five teams. 

That seems to be pretty strong trend and it makes sense logically. Unranked teams tend to not be elite so they shouldn't be expected to pulverize even really bad teams. In addition to the trend, Wake Forest may also be due some regression in 2021. Two offensive starters suffered season-ending injuries in July and the team posted an absurd positive turnover margin (+10) in the abbreviated 2020 season. Not only that, but we haven't even gotten to their opponent in this game. Old Dominion is one of the biggest mysteries heading into the 2021 season. The Monarchs were one of three FBS teams (along with Connecticut and New Mexico State) to opt out of the 2020 fall season. Not only that, but they also have a new head coach. Bobby Wilder was fired following Old Dominion's 1-11 campaign in 2019. His replacement Ricky Rahne, an assistant under James Franklin at both Vanderbilt and Penn State, took over and will make his head coaching debut about 21 months after he was originally hired. Betting into uncertainty can be a bad thing, but in this case the betting market appears to be too certain in regard to how bad Old Dominion is. I can understand where they are coming from. The Monarchs have gone 10-26 since winning the Bahamas Bowl in 2016 and have not beaten an FBS opponent since November of 2018! However, they have also not played a game in almost two years and will be breaking in a new coach. Not only will this be Rahne's first game as head coach, it will also be the first time someone other than Bobby Wilder has coached the team since they restarted the program in 2007. Will Old Dominion be bad in 2021? Probably. But this line assumes they will be as bad as they were in 2019 despite the fact their program and the whole damn world has changed a lot since then. 

Duke -6 Charlotte

Is this the end of the line for David Cutcliffe? The erstwhile Duke head coach has been in Durham since the tail-end of the George W. Bush administration and aside from Steve Spurrier, is easily the most successful coach the school has had since Bill Murray (not that one) in the 1960's. However, after a run of four consecutive bowls from 2012 through 2015, things have been trending downward, culminating in last season's 2-9 campaign. While the record was poor, Duke fans should expect some positive regression in 2021. There is simply no way for Duke to turn the ball over as often as they did last season. In ten conference games, the Blue Devils committed an astounding 38 turnovers and were -20 in turnover margin. Spotting your opponents an average of two turnovers per game will almost always confine you to the bottom of the conference standings, and 2020 was no exception as the Blue Devils won just a single conference game (where they still turned the ball over four times). Of course, Duke did play one non-conference game in 2020 that broke up the monotony of their ACC schedule. In that game, Duke took out their collective frustrations against these same Charlotte 49ers, pounding them 53-19. That continued a positive trend for Duke under Cutcliffe against Group of Five or non-BCS conference teams. 

Whether it be at home or on the road; as a favorite or an underdog, Duke has dominated their mid-major opponents under Cutcliffe. The games they have failed to cover have come against either a service academy (7-2 ATS against Army and Navy) or as a double-digit favorite (6-2 ATS in the role). Charlotte is not a service academy and this spread is south of a touchdown. In their brief history, Charlotte has not fared well against Power Five opponents. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS against Power Five teams and were significant underdogs (double-digit or more) in all six games. Their lone cover came against Tennessee in 2018 in a game they still lost by eleven points. In the other five games, Charlotte has lost by an average of nearly 46 points! Overall, Charlotte is 3-11 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents of any persuasion (Power Five or Group of Five). This is a great spot to buy low on Duke. I think the Blue Devils win handily. 

Kansas State -3 Stanford @ Arlington

2020 was a true tale of two seasons for Kansas State. After opening the season with a home loss to what would end up being a pretty bad Arkansas State team, the Wildcats staged a miraculous comeback against Oklahoma and endured an injury to their starting quarterback to begin Big 12 play 4-0. Then the wheels came off. Newly christened starting quarterback Will Howard put up passing numbers befitting a quarterback from the early 90's and the team scored just 28 points over their next three games (all losses). The running game exploded over the last two games, rolling for over 500 yards and the team scored 62 points. Unfortunately, they allowed 101 and lost both games to finish on a five-game skid. The streak gave head coach Chris Klieman his first losing season since 2005 when he was head coach at some place called Loras College (with Willie, Mickey, and the Duke). I expect Kansas State to bounce back and return to their 2019 form when they won eight games and were generally a pain in the ass to other Big 12 teams. Quarterback Skylar Thompson is back and healthy, so I expect the offense to more resemble the one from early last season. Meanwhile, Stanford won twice as many games as they lost in limited action in 2020, but they were mostly lucky to win those games. All four of their wins came by five points or less, including two by a single point. Give David Shaw credit for rallying his team after an 0-2 start with nothing to play for in a season decimated by the pandemic, but it seems like Stanford is a long way from their glory days in the 2010's. I like Kansas State to win this one by at least a touchdown. 

Oregon State +7 Purdue

Jeff Brohm has done a good job at Purdue. While he has a losing record as head coach, having gone 19-25 over four years in West Lafayette, Purdue was 9-39 in the four seasons preceding his arrival. He has turned the Boilermakers from an abject failure to a competitive team. Across the country in Corvallis, Oregon, Jonathan Smith appears to be well on his way toward doing the same thing. In three seasons, Smith has guided the Beavers to a 9-22 record. which is a little better than the 7-29 record the team posted in the three seasons before he arrived. Befitting coaches that took over downtrodden programs and pulled them toward mediocrity, both Brohm and Smith excel in the underdog role. Brohm is 15-5 ATS as an underdog at Purdue (with eight outright wins as a dog) and Smith is 14-12-1 ATS in the same role at Oregon State. Don't let Smith's seemingly mediocre ATS record fool you though. After a rough first year where the Beavers posted a 3-8 ATS mark, over the past two seasons, they are 11-4-1 ATS as an underdog with six outright upset wins. In a battle of two teams that are great as underdogs, it only makes sense to back the dog in this spot. Plus, over the past few years, you may as well set your money on fire as back Purdue as a favorite. 

After posting a solid mark as a favorite in Brohm's first season, the Boilermakers are just 4-11 ATS in that spot the past three years with nine outright losses, including six at home. I need to do some more research on this in the offseason, but anecdotally, it seems like whenever a coach brings a team from the depths of despair to mediocrity or better (think David Cutcliffe at Duke as your archetypal example), they always struggle in the role of favorite. They seem to keep their underdog bonafides despite everyone being aware of their prowess in that spot, but struggle mightily when the shoe is on the proverbial other foot. I don't have any solid data to back this theory up (yet), but I don't trust Purdue laying points. They are 1-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2018 and Oregon State has covered their past nine games as a road underdog. Perhaps that streak is due to snap, but I'll let it ride one more time. 

Arizona +12.5 BYU @ Las Vegas

In case you have forgotten, BYU fielded a pretty good team in 2020. The Cougars finished 11-1, averaged more than 40 points per game, and finished with their best final AP ranking (11th) since 1996. Arizona on the other hand, didn't play a game until mid-November, and after a competitive loss to Southern Cal, packed things up, culminating in an embarrassing loss to their rivals from Tempe. The winless season cost Kevin Sumlin his job and dropped Arizona's record to 26-41 since their Fiesta Bowl campaign in 2014. Why wouldn't they be catching double-digits against a BYU team looking for a Pac-12 scalp? Keep in mind, while 2020 was a special season for BYU, it was pretty out of character compared to their previous performance under Kalani Sitake. In his first four seasons in Provo, the Cougars were just 27-25 (23-25 versus FBS competition). They were also pretty bad ATS as favorites. 

BYU was 9-13 ATS as a favorite in Sitake's first four seasons before posting a solid return on investment in that spot in 2020. What happened? Well, the Cougars found themselves a quarterback. Zach Wilson put up decent numbers in 2018 and 2019, but he became a superstar in 2020, throwing for 33 touchdowns and finishing eighth in the Heisman voting. Wilson was drafted second overall by the New York Jets and will look to lead that franchise back to the Super Bowl for the first time in more than fifty years (no pressure). Oh, and don't discount the loss of offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes who served in that role for all of Wilson's BYU career before moving to Baylor. Do you know who will be replacing Wilson under center (or in the shotgun) in 2021? I certainly didn't. I did look it up though and it appears to be someone named Jaren Hall. I don't believe I have ever seen Hall throw a pass, so I can't say how good he is or isn't, but you would have to be some kind of optimist to believe he will post numbers comparable to what Wilson put up last season. More likely, BYU will be similar to what they were between 2016 and 2019. The Cougars are capable of beating a Power Five team (a respectable 7-12 versus Power Five opponents under Sitake), but should not be expected to pound one by double digits on a neutral site. I'm not ready to offer a prediction on how successful Arizona will be under new coach Jedd Fisch, but the Wildcats needed to move on from Kevin Sumlin and in the first game under a new regime, as a big underdog, I expect a solid performance. Take the Wildcats to keep this one close. 

Louisville +10 Ole Miss @ Atlanta

This year's Ole Miss team looks a lot like Louisville team from last season. Second year coach. Check. Exceeded expectations in first season culminating with a bowl win. Check. Explosive offense and suspect defense. 

Check. Enter second season with moderate expectations (Louisville was 31st in the 2020 preseason AP Poll and Ole Miss is 27th in this year's preseason AP Poll). Check. Lane Kiffin has not angered his fan base by openly seeking other jobs (give him some time), but otherwise, the similarities are eerie. Kiffin and Ole Miss will look to avoid what befell Louisville as the Cardinals fell to 4-7 in 2020. Based on Kiffin's track record, that might be easier said than done. This is Kiffin's fourth college stop, and on two previous occasions, after ratcheting up expectations, he has failed to deliver. His second Southern Cal team was ineligible for the postseason, but won seven of their final eight games and finished ranked sixth in the AP Poll. They entered 2012 as the preseason number one team, but ended it with a 7-6 record (and perhaps more importantly were 3-10 ATS). After washing out in Los Angeles, Kiffin worked for Nick Saban at Alabama for a few seasons before getting the head coaching job at Florida Atlantic. In his first season, the team won eleven games and the Conference USA title. With fans expecting a repeat in 2018, the Owls sputtered to a 5-7 mark and again struggled ATS (3-7-1 versus FBS opponents). Those two seasons should make you a little leery of backing Kiffin and the Rebels this season. The defense was bad last year and while it may be improved, Louisville has a pretty good offense, so I expect them to put up some points. Even if Ole Miss is up by double digits in the fourth quarter, the backdoor should be wide open for a Louisville cover. 

Strangers in the Field: VI

I didn't get in a Vegas trip last summer due to the pandemic and while things have recently taken a turn for the worse, I got one in about a month ago. Hopefully, at least a few of these bets won't be voided. Enjoy. 

College Football Plays

Over/Under Win Totals

Air Force over 6.5 wins -125 ($50 to win $40)

Troy Calhoun enters his fifteenth season at the flight school having won fewer than seven regular season games five times in his tenure, including last season when the team played just six games. The Falcons still managed a .500 record in that abbreviated campaign and even posted the second best Net YPP in the division (if the Mountain West had used divisions last season which they did not). The Falcons have a manageable non-conference slate outside of their mandatory service academy dates with Army and Navy, so as long as they can manage a .500 record in Mountain West play, they should be able to win seven games. 

Ball State under 7.5 wins -120 ($50 to win $41.65)

Ball State closed 2020 strong, winning their final seven games and finishing in the AP top 25 for the first time in school history. However, despite winning the MAC title, the Cardinals were underwater in Net YPP. I think regression is waiting on Ball State this season and with a non-conference slate that features three challenging games (at Penn State, at Wyoming, and home versus Army), the Cardinals may need to qualify for the MAC Championship Game to go over this total. 

Buffalo under 7.5 wins -145 ($50 to win $34.50)

Buffalo was the best team in the MAC last season, and if Lance Leipold had not taken the Kansas job in the spring, they would probably be a good bet to return to the MAC Championship Game. However, Leipold departed late in the offseason and I think his departure will have a significant negative impact on the Bulls. 

Navy over 3.5 wins -105 ($50 to win $47.60)

Ken Niumatalolo has been head coach at Navy for thirteen seasons. Two of those seasons have resulted in losing campaigns. In both instances, his teams bounced back and won at least eight games the next season. The non-conference schedule is daunting in 2021, with Marshall and Notre Dame joining the standard dates with Air Force and Army. However, Marshall might be poised for a decline off last season's closing performance and there are some opportunities for wins in AAC play (pretty much any game outside of Cincinnati and UCF). I'll go with history and count on Navy bouncing back. 

San Diego State over 6.5 wins -120 ($50 to win $41.65)

I'm not saying this is going to happen, but there is a non-zero probability San Diego State starts the season 9-0 before hosting Nevada in mid-November. Check the schedule. I'm not saying its likely to happen, but the Aztecs could potentially win all four of their non-conference games which would include two victories against Pac-12 teams. The Aztecs will likely be favored when they travel to Tucson to take on Arizona and while they will be a home underdog to Utah, that is a sandwich game as the Utes will be coming off the Holy War with BYU and will open conference play the next week against Washington State. Again, not saying it will happen, but the schedule sets up nicely for San Diego State. 

TCU over 7.5 wins -125 ($50 to win $40)

TCU is 18-17 over the past three seasons (12-15 in Big 12 play). However, they closed last season strong by winning five of six and finally have an experienced quarterback. Max Duggan has started for parts of the past two seasons and should be able to put the TCU offense into the upper half of the Big 12. Pair that with what is always one of the best defenses in the conference and that should be enough to get TCU to eight wins. 

Over/Under Conference Win Totals

The South Point mixed things up a bit and put out conference only win totals. 

Coastal Carolina under 7.5 Sun Belt wins -135 ($100 to win $74.05)

One loss is all it takes to cash this ticket. The Chanticleers enjoyed an amazing season last year under Jamey Chadwell, but the wunderkind was just 8-16 in his previous two seasons leading the team. I think the Chants slip up at least once in Sun Belt play (hopefully on their visit to Boone). 

East Carolina over 2.5 AAC wins -135 ($100 to win $74.05)

East Carolina has not finished with a winning conference record since 2014, but I think they get close in Mike Houston's third season. The Pirates actually finished 3-5 in AAC play last season and they host the two weakest teams in the conference (South Florida and Temple) in 2021. If they win both of those, they just have to find one additional win in their other six league games and I think they can do just that. 

Florida International over 2.5 CUSA wins +100 ($40 to win $40).

After qualifying for bowls in their first three seasons under Butch Davis, the Panthers endured a hard luck 0-5 campaign in 2020. The Panthers dropped their first two games by a combined five points and then wheezed to the finish line. In a more normal season, I think the Panthers bounce back to mediocrity. They were 14-10 in CUSA play from 2017-2019. 

Indiana under 5 Big 10 wins -110 ($40 to win $36.35)

In a storybook season, Indiana nearly won the Big 10 last season despite being underwater in Net YPP. In seven conference games, the Hoosiers were +10 in turnover margin. That fantastic margin is unlikely to be repeated in 2021. To lose this bet, Indiana would have to go 6-3 in Big 10 play with a schedule that features trips to Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State as well as a home date with Ohio State. And that is assuming they win road trips to Maryland and Purdue as well as take care of business at home against Minnesota. I don't see any way Indiana wins six times in Big 10 play. 

Marshall under 7 CUSA wins -140 ($100 to win $71.45)

To lose this bet, Marshall has to run the table in Conference USA. While the league is down, Marshall fired their long time head coach (Doc Holliday) after a successful season. In addition, quarterback Grant Wells had some great surface numbers last season, but games against Eastern Kentucky (FCS) and Massachusetts (one of the worst FBS teams) significantly skewed his overall totals. I expect Marshall to finish closer to .500 in CUSA play than unbeaten. 

Middle Tennessee State over 2.5 CUSA wins -110 ($100 to win $90.90)

In the vein of Air Force and Navy, we have another long-tenured coach (Rick Stockstill is entering season number sixteen in Murfreesboro) coming off a disappointing season. For the Blue Raiders, this marks two disappointing seasons in a row (7-14 overall the past two years), but I think the Blue Raiders will return to at least mediocrity. They don't even have to finish .500 to go over this win total. 

Mississippi State over 2.5 SEC wins +100 ($40 to win $40)

I think Mississippi State will see their offense improve in the second year of the Air Raid. The conference schedule is also not as difficult as it could have been considering the Bulldogs play in the SEC West. Their crossover games come against Kentucky and Vanderbilt so if the Bulldogs can get both of those, they just need to find a single division win. That potential win would most likely come against Arkansas, Auburn, or in the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss. 

Navy over 1.5 AAC wins -145 ($100 to win $68.95)

I already touched on why I think Navy will improve in 2021, and since this bet only includes conference games, their tough non-conference schedule doesn't even come into play. 

Ohio over 4.5 MAC wins +100 ($40 to win $40)

I felt better about this bet until Frank Solich retired. However, his replacement has been with the program just as long, entering his seventeenth season. Tim Albin has not been a head coach since the 90's when he led Northwestern Oklahoma State to an NAIA crown. Despite the change at the top, I think the program is in good hands and excluding 2020, the Bobcats have won at least five conference games each season since 2015. 

Wyoming over 4.5 Mountain West wins ($40 to win $26.65)

The Cowboys should have one of the best defenses in the Mountain West and in Craig Bohl's eighth season, could finally win an elusive Mountain West title. Since 2016, the Cowboys have lost seventeen conference games. Eleven of them have come by one score. Wyoming is very close to putting it all together and having a special season. 

College Conference Futures

Appalachian State to win Sun Belt +350 ($10 to win $35)

Since joining FBS, the Mountaineers are the best program in the Sun Belt and they get Coastal Carolina at home in 2021. 

Ohio to win the MAC +600 ($10 to win $60)

I had hoped the Bobcats would send Frank Solich off into the sunset with his first MAC title, but I still think they have a great chance to at least get to the conference title game. 

NFL Playoffs Yes/No 

Atlanta Falcons YES +250 ($10 to win $25)

At some point the Falcons have to win the close ones right? Plus, there are seven playoff teams per conference now and Drew Brees just retired.

Baltimore Ravens YES -320 ($200 to win $62.50)

I don't stand to gain a lot if the Ravens make the playoffs, but it just seems like too much would have to go wrong for this team to miss the playoffs entirely.

Los Angeles Rams NO +160 ($10 to win $16)

Is Matthew Stafford that much of an upgrade over Jared Goff? I remain skeptical. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers NO +450 ($10 to win $45)

At some point Tom Brady has to stop being good right? I know the roster around him is great, but I'll take a flyer on the Bucs struggling in their quest to repeat.

NFL Over/Under Win Totals

Atlanta Falcons over 7.5 wins -120 ($30 to win $25)

Since I think they might make the playoffs, I figure they should be able to finish within an eyelash of .500. 

Los Angeles Rams under 10.5 wins -130 ($20 to win $15.40)

Again, I don't know that Stafford is that much of an upgrade and the NFC West is tough. 

Washington Football Team under 8.5 wins -125 ($20 to win $16)

Defense is less consistent year to year than offense and this team was heavily tilted to that side of the ball in 2020. The offense should improve with the additional of Ryan Fitzpatrick, but I think the defense will regress just as much. And remember, this team finished with a losing record last season. 

NFL Division Futures

New York Giants to win NFC East +400 ($10 to win $40)

Someone has to win the division and while the Cowboys and Washington are the favorites, I think the Giants are a real darkhorse in the race.

Seattle Seahawks to win NFC West +325 ($10 to win $32.50)

Seattle still has the best quarterback in the division. 

Reckless Parlays

College Football ($10 to win $750 -- all must be correct)

Army +2.5 Georgia State

Army is a great play as an underdog, especially against a fellow Group of Five team.

Kansas State +1.5 Stanford @ Arlington

Early kick and a great underdog coach.

Rice +20.5 Arkansas

For as much as Arkansas improved last season, they have one FBS victory by more than 20 points since the start of the 2017 season. 

Navy +3 Marshall

Marshall has a new coach and must go on the road against a veteran triple option team. 

Georgia +4 Clemson @ Charlotte

I think Georgia will win the national title in 2021. 

Northern Illinois +17 Georgia Tech

I am skeptical Georgia Tech makes much of a leap in Geoff Collins' third season.

Southern Miss -1.5 South Alabama 

Two gentlemen make their head coaching debuts. I like the Golden Eagles to get revenge on the Jaguars for ruining their 2020 season.

NFL ($10 to win $60 -- all must be correct)

Atlanta -4 Philadelphia 

Nothing like over-leveraging myself on the Falcons.

New York Giants pick Denver

Denver travels to the east coast with a good defense and questions a quarterback. 

Chicago Bears +7 Los Angeles Rams

Both these teams made the playoffs last season, but only one is getting any offseason love.

There you have it. Hopefully we can make some money. Come January, I'll post a follow up detailing how we did. In the meantime, look for some college football picks against the spread coming in about two weeks. Thanks for reading. 

First Half Point Differential: The 2020 Power Five

Two weeks ago, we looked at first half point differential in the Group of Five conferences to try and identify some teams that might surprise and or disappoint us this season (caveats about the general weirdness of the 2020 season notwithstanding). With the season a month away (hopefully), we'll do the same for the Power 5. 

Atlantic Coast Conference

The 2020 ACC standings. 

1HPD in ACC play (title game excluded with numbers on a per game basis). 

The 1HPD mostly reflected the actual standings. The top two teams, Clemson and Notre Dame, met in the ACC Championship Game, and eventually were selected for the College Football Playoff. The top four teams in 1HPD combined to go 31-6 in conference play (27-2 in games not involving each other). At the bottom of the standings, keep an eye on Georgia Tech. While their margin is significantly impacted by the loss to Clemson (trailed by 45 at the half), even if we remove that game, they would have still ranked last in the conference (-9.6 average 1HPD)!

Big 10

The 2020 Big 10 standings. 

1HPD in Big 10 play (previous disclaimers apply).

Ohio State was plenty dominant in their abbreviated campaign, averaging more than a three touchdown halftime lead in their five conference games. The real shame was in the other division, where two close losses to open the season kept a pretty good Iowa team from getting a shot at the Buckeyes. 

Big 12

The 2020 Big 12 standings.

1HPD in Big 12 play (ditto). 

I haven't been watching the news lately? Has anything of note happened in the Big 12? Despite opening the season with back to back losses, Oklahoma never trailed at the half in any of their conference games. At the other end of the Big 12 spectrum, Kansas never led at halftime in any conference game and trailed by ay least ten points in six of their eight games. 

Pac-12

The 2020 Pac-12 standings. 

1HPD in Pac-12 play (ditto).

The 2020 Pac-12 was plagued by a small sample of games. Oregon State and UCLA were the only teams to play seven conference games (two games short of a normal Pac-12 slate) and five teams played four conference games. Included in that quintet are the top two teams in 1HPD. Arizona State's entire positive first half margin is due to their beatdown of in-state rival Arizona (+35 in that game and dead even in the other three). Meanwhile, Colorado was the only Pac-12 team to never trail at the half in 2020, but in three of their four games, their margins at halftime were one, four, and five points respectively. 

SEC

The 2020 SEC standings.

1HPD in SEC play (ditto).

That Alabama team wasn't half bad. Their 1HPD was better than the combined differential of teams two through four! In the West, Texas A&M was the only team that joined Alabama with a positive differential. Considering that negative margin, of the teams outside of  the Tide and Aggies, you might think the East held their own against the West. You would be wrong. The West went 19-9 against the East in 2020 and the only West team to finish with a losing record against their intra-division opponents was Arkansas (1-3). 

Our rundown of the Power Five conferences is complete. Now we come to the part you have been anxiously awaiting. Which teams over or under-performed relative to their expected record based on IHPD? We'll start with the overachievers. 

Georgia Tech won a third of their conference games, stoking expectations ever so slightly as Geoff Collins enters the third year of his triple option cleanse. However, in their nine conference games, they led at halftime just once (by two points). In the Big 10, Northwestern paired a mediocre offense with a good defense and with some close game good fortune (3-0 in one-score conference games), it was enough to get them to the Big 10 Championship Game and *checks notes* a top ten AP finish. Southern Cal and Washington are your 2020 poster children for small sample sizes. The Trojans played five regular season conference games and won them all, but needed three fourth quarter comebacks to do so. Meanwhile Washington played four conference games, and trailed by three touchdowns at the half in two of them. Finally, in the SEC, Texas A&M crafted a marginal playoff resume despite a dearth of true dominance. 

And now the underachievers. 

After purging the Bobby Petrino stench from the program in his first season in charge, Scott Satterfield and the Cardinals struggled in close games, posting an 0-4 record in one-score conference games. In the Pac-12, the previous sample size caveats apply here. Arizona played five games and trailed by five touchdowns at the half in their finale which skews their numbers. Cal and Washington State played four games apiece and probably should have won an extra game each. Finally, in a shocking turn of events, Tennessee was actually kind of mediocre in 2020 instead of plain bad. The Vols were winning or tied at the half in six of their ten conference games, but lost half of them (which includes blowing a double digit lead against Arkansas) to finish 3-7. 

How useful will this data be going forward? Will a weird season marked by cancelations and postponements against the backdrop of a global pandemic have any predictive value as we head into another season that may well have its own share of cancelations or forfeits? Hopefully we get to start finding out in four weeks. 

First Half Point Differential: The 2020 Group of 5

Last year around these parts, I introduced a very complicated advanced stat: First Half Point Differential (1HPD). It is a difficult concept to explain concisely, but I'll give it a shot. It is the number of points by which a team outscores its opponent in the first half of a game. The theory behind using it being that consistently relying on second half comebacks is not a good long term strategy and can potentially help us identify regression candidates. Similarly, teams that rack up solid first half differentials, but ultimately wind up losing more game than we might expect actually have the bones of a solid team and might be a good candidate to bounce back the next season. In our YPP and APR offseason recaps, we go through each conference individually, but since the season will (hopefully) be here in about six weeks, we'll tackle the Group of Five this week and in two weeks examine the Power Five. 

American Athletic Conference

The 2020 AAC standings. 

1HPD in AAC play (title game excluded with numbers on a per game basis). 

I expected Cincinnati to come out on top here, but UCF actually led by double digits in seven of their eight conference games. If you just looked at these numbers, you would have expected East Carolina and Tulane to have much better seasons as they outscored their opponents in the first half while Houston, Memphis, and SMU all finished with at least a .500 conference record despite being outscored in the first half of their conference games. 

Conference USA

The 2020 Conference USA standings. 

1HPD in CUSA play (previous disclaimers apply).

Teams in CUSA played a wildly disparate number of games (as many as seven and as few as three) so I would not put a whole lot of stock in these numbers. 

Mid-American 

The 2020 MAC standings.

1HPD in MAC play (ditto). 

The top team (Buffalo) and bottom team (Bowling Green) really stood out in 2020. Buffalo led at halftime in each of their five regular season conference games by at least a touchdown and on average by more than two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Bowling Green trailed by at least two touchdowns at halftime in all five of their MAC contests. 

Mountain West

The 2020 Mountain West standings.

1HPD in Mountain West play (ditto).

The bottom of the MAC was bad in 2020 and the bottom of the Mountain West was equally horrific. Three teams (Colorado State, Utah State, and UNLV) trailed by more than ten points on average at halftime of their conference games with Utah State and UNLV never holding halftime leads. 

Sun Belt

The 2020 Sun Belt standings.

1HPD in Sun Belt play (ditto).

Nearly every team in the East division had a positive differential at halftime, with Georgia State the lone holdout (Panthers were outscored by a grand total of one point in the first half). 

In the YPP and APR offseason recaps, I sort the teams in each conference by how much they over or under-performed relative to their expected record. Since all the Group of Five conferences are grouped together here, I am only going to list those that significantly over or under-performed (a difference of at least .200). We'll start with the overachievers.

In the AAC, Memphis trailed in six of their eight conference games at the half! That they ended up winning five games was a minor miracle. Meanwhile, Tulsa trailed by double digits in half of their six regular season conference games, but managed to come back and win each one. Take UAB's Conference USA numbers with a grain of salt. They played only four conference games and had a slightly positive margin in them. However, UTSA is a different story. The Roadrunners nearly played a full league schedule (seven games), and were outscored in the first half despite winning five times. Ball State made a surprise run to the MAC Championship Game with a decent 1HPD, but were tied or trailing at halftime in half of their conference schedule. San Jose State also made a surprise run to their conference title game despite middling 1HPD numbers. 

And now the underachievers. 

I briefly touched on East Caroline and Tulane finishing with losing records despite outscoring their conference opponents in the first half, but I'll add that Tulane only trailed at the half once in their eight conference games. I also touched on UCF dominating their opponents in the first half. Against both Memphis and Tulsa they blew huge leads in games they easily could have won. The two Conference USA teams on this list finished winless in short seasons and probably should have broken through for at least one or two wins based on their numbers. Eastern Michigan won just a third of their MAC games despite holding halftime leads four times. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois went winless in MAC play, and while the Huskies never held a halftime lead, they were tied twice. Finally, Troy finished with a losing Sun Belt record despite holding halftime leads in five of their seven conference games, with three of those leads being double digits. 

Will these over and underachievers regress or progress to the mean in 2021 or were these numbers products of a truly unusual season with little to no predictive value going forward? Hopefully, we'll get some answers starting in late August. As always, thanks for reading and we'll be back in two weeks with the Power Five numbers. 

YPP Throwback: The 2000-2003 Big East (the final years of the old Big East)

In this edition of our YPP Throwback, we are actually going to examine four seasons (and a few Jersey Boys) of the early aughts Big East. These four seasons encompass the supernova run of the Miami Hurricanes when they reemerged from sanctions to become a national player for the first time in a decade only to see their potential dynasty abate just as they left the Big East to join the ACC. 

We start, as we always do, with the standings. This time, its the Big East in 2000. 

Miami and Virginia Tech combined to go 22-2 in 2000 with both teams finishing in the top six of the final AP Poll. Miami's only loss came in the second game of the season by five points on a cross-country trip to Washington. That Washington team was pretty damn good, finishing 11-1 and winning the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, in Michael Vick's final season in Blacksburg, the Hokies lone defeat came at Miami (in a game Vick hardly played). Outside of Miami and Virginia Tech, the only notable aspect of the Big East in 2000 was the final season of legendary West Virginia coach Don Nehlen. Nehlen capped his career by winning his first bowl game in sixteen seasons against Ole Miss in the Music City Bowl. 

And here are the YPP numbers for the 2000 Big East.

While Virginia Tech finished a game behind Miami in the Big East standings, they were clearly several notches below Miami once we look at the YPP numbers. The Hokies were second on offense and defense, but the gap between the Hokies and Hurricanes was enormous. Miami was about 0.78 yards per play better than the Hokies on offense. That was larger than the gap between Virginia Tech and the sixth best offense (West Virginia). The gap on defense was similar. Miami was about 0.80 yards per play better than the Hokies on that side of the ball. That was greater than the difference between Virginia Tech and the fifth best defense (Temple). On the other end of the spectrum, Rutgers finished with the worst YPP Net in the Big East. Despite making a great hire, in the short term, things would get much worse. 

Here are the 2001 Big East standings. 

Miami once again finished with an unblemished record, and while they were often regarded as the best team of this century until the recent iterations of Clemson, LSU, and Alabama destroyed the curve, they were challenged a few times in conference play. Boston College was driving with a chance to win late until a tipped pass led to an Ed Reed touchdown and a misleading final score. In their regular season finale, Miami avoided the late season upset that plagued highly ranked teams in 2001 by stopping a two point conversion against Virginia Tech that could have sent the game to overtime. Elsewhere in the conference, Syracuse shook off an 0-2 start to win ten of their last eleven games and finish in the top-fifteen of the final AP Poll for the first time in nearly ten years. And at the bottom of the conference, as you'll soon see, things got much worse for Rutgers. 

Here are YPP numbers for the 2001 Big East. 

Miami was again clearly a cut above the rest of the conference although Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Virginia Tech all finished with a YPP Net greater than 1.00. I was surprised that Syracuse, which finished all alone in second place in the conference standings, and had the Big East Defensive Player of the Year in Dwight Freeney finished with the second worst per play defense and was actually underwater in terms of YPP Net. Finally, at the bottom of the YPP rankings, Rutgers may have boasted the worst BCS/Power 5 conference team of the 21st century. I have YPP data for every conference going back to 2005, and Rutgers outpaces all the other BCS/Power 5 teams by a significant margin. 

Most of that is due to an impossibly bad offense. The Scarlet Knights scored three touchdowns in seven conference games, were shut out three times, scored five points against Temple, and averaged just north of five points per game in conference play. Their per play offensive numbers were also significantly worse than any BCS/Power Five conference team between 2005 and 2020. 

Here are the 2002 Big East standings. 

For the third year in a row, Miami finished Big East play with an unblemished record and for the third year in a row, a different team finished in second place with a 6-1 record. West Virginia, under second year coach Rich Rodriguez rebounded from a rough non-conference start (lost to Wisconsin and Maryland by a combined 48 points) to finish with a winning conference record for the first time since 1998. Rutgers once again finished all alone in last place as they extended their conference losing streak to 22 games. 

Here are the YPP numbers for the 2002 Big East. 

Miami was once again head and shoulders above the rest of the Big East. Their YPP Net was more than double that of the second place team (Pittsburgh). In an odd turn of events, Temple, despite a 2-5 conference record, finished with a solid per play defense, ranking fourth in the Big East behind Defensive Player of the Year Dan Klecko. On the other hand, for the first time in a long time, Virginia Tech put a bad defense on the field, ranking second to last in the Big East in yards allowed per play. The Hokies lost two conference games where they scored 42 and 45 points respectively. And while Rutgers improved in Net YPP, their offensive YPP was even worse than the year before!

Here are the 2003 Big East standings. 

2003 was the year a pair of streaks were broken. After winning 27 consecutive Big East games, Miami was surprisingly blown out in Blacksburg on November 1st. The Hurricanes turned the ball over four times and were down 31-0 entering the fourth quarter. It marked Miami's first conference loss since 1999 when they also lost in blowout fashion during a trip to Blacksburg. To test your knowledge of late 90's Big East football, do you know the last Big East team other than Virginia Tech to defeat Miami? I'll reveal the answer at the end of this post. Elsewhere in the Big East, Rutgers broke their 25 game conference losing streak the week before Miami's winning streak was snapped. The Scarlet Knights blew out Temple and capped their year with a second Big East victory against Syracuse. 

Here are the YPP numbers for the 2003 Big East. 

For the fourth year in a row, Miami was tops in YPP Net, but they were not nearly as dominant on offense. The defense was still national championship worthy (in fact it was better than the 2002 version), but the offense fell off a cliff with the loss of Ken Dorsey, Willis McGahee, and Andre Johnson. Quarterback Brock Berlin took my breath away by throwing 17 interceptions (against just 12 touchdowns) and despite the presence of future NFL skill players Frank Gore, Jarrett Payton, Roscoe Parrish, and Kellen Winslow Jr., the team finished 51st nationally in points per game. 

Just how much of a problem was the Miami offense in 2003? The following table lists the number of offensive touchdowns Miami scored and allowed in league play between 2000 and 2003 as well as the number of turnovers the Hurricanes committed. 

With Ken Dorsey at the helm, the Hurricanes averaged at least four offensive touchdowns per game each season, maxing out at a little over five per game during his senior season. They also scored two or fewer offensive touchdowns just twice (including the infamous Boston College game where they did not manage a single touchdown until Ed Reed's return). In 2003, they scored two or fewer offensive touchdowns in four of their seven conference games. Their cumulative touchdown total would look even worse if we ignored the Temple game. The Hurricanes dominated the Owls, scoring seven offensive touchdowns, but managed just 13 in their other six Big East games. Their turnover numbers were also much worse once Dorsey departed, as the team committed twice as many turnovers in 2003 as they did in 2002. Football is a team game, but I'm good putting this all at the feet of Brock Berlin. 

That's how Miami's run in the Big East came to an end. They entered the 2004 season as co-favorites in the ACC with Florida State, but lost three games, including two at home en route to a disappointing Peach Bowl appearance. The decline continued the next two seasons with another Peach Bowl appearance (this one a shellacking at the hands of LSU) and finally a losing conference record in 2006 that got Larry Coker canned. Considering Alabama's run of dominance is going into its 14th season, it really puts the length of Miami's run into perspective. Depending on whether you consider 2004 part of the run, it really only lasted four or five years, or roughly the same length of time that a superstar in another sport turned South Beach into a mini-dynasty. 

And before we leave Miami, lets answer that trivia question from before. Other than Virginia Tech, the last Big East team to beat Miami was...

Syracuse. The week before Miami ended UCLA's run to the inaugural BCS Championship, the Hurricanes lost in blowout fashion to Donovan McNabb and the Orange in the Carrier Dome.