What Does it Take to be Ranked?

One of my favorite aspects of college football is the poll system. It is a fun, flawed way to look at how those who (allegedly) closely follow the sport view certain teams. Many professional sports websites have their own ‘power polls’ that track who a given columnist believes is the best team. However, there is no ‘official’ body that conducts a poll of the best professional sports teams for a given season. College basketball also has a poll, but polls are more valued in college football. A top-ten ranking in college basketball means little to a team that flames out early in March Madness. Meanwhile, a top-ten ranking in college football is still worn as a badge of honor even if a team loses their bowl game. With this in mind, I wanted to take a semi-statistical analysis overview of polls in college football. More specifically, I wanted to answer the question: What exactly does it take for a team to be ranked? The next paragraph will outline the methodology if you are interested. Otherwise, skip on down.

I looked at the final AP Poll data for the eleven year period of 2005-2015 and identified the number of losses by each team ranked in the final poll. I used the AP Poll for no other reason than because it is easily available at sports-reference.com/cfb. I used the final AP Poll because it was much easier to look at one poll per year for eleven years than a weekly poll in the same period. I used the period beginning with 2005 because that is when the first era of modern realignment began. The ACC hosted their first title game and the Big East began life in its final form after raiding Conference USA. In addition, college football schedules have been pretty uniform (in length if not quality) since 2005. Schools played eleven regular season games in 2005 and have played twelve each season beginning with 2006.

Here are the number of teams from each of the Power 5/BCS conferences that have finished ranked with a certain number of losses in the past eleven seasons.

If you play in a Power 5 or BCS conference and you finish with two or fewer losses, congrats. You will finish in the final poll even if you lack a great football history. If you finish with three losses, there is a pretty good chance you will finish ranked. Lose four games and you are still better than 2:1 odds to finish in the final poll. However, lose one additional game and you can pretty much kiss your chances of finishing ranked goodbye. Speaking of, who was the highest ranked team of the last eleven years to finish with five losses? That would be a tie between South Carolina (2010) and Auburn (2014) at 22nd.

As you can see, I included each iteration of the Big East in this analysis because they were a BCS conference despite being diminished compared to their previous incarnation that included Miami and Virginia Tech. I also included the first season of the American Athletic Conference as they retained the Big East’s automatic BCS berth. While that year’s AAC champ actually won their BCS game and finished in the top-ten, there is a pretty good argument to be made they did not have the strength of a typical BCS conference. Here is the overall version of the previous table with the Big East and American Athletic Conference removed.

The results are a little different. Only a single team from a Power 5/BCS conference has not finished ranked with three of fewer losses. Care to guess who it was? It happened just last season and they play in what is widely regarded as the toughest conference. The Georgia Bulldogs. Home of The Hedges, Vince Dooley, and Herschel Walker apparently don’t get the benefit of the doubt from the national media. Once the Big East and American are removed, you still have a nearly eight in ten chance of finishing ranked with four losses. The percentage with five losses is relatively unchanged.

Here are the number of teams from each of the non-BCS/Group of 5 conferences that have finished ranked with a certain number of losses in the past eleven seasons. The two most recent seasons of the American, when they have not had access to an automatic BCS bowl berth are included. You should recognize the other five conferences and lets hold a moment of silence for the WAC.

If you do not play in a BCS/Power 5 conference and you want to guarantee you finish the season in the final poll, you have little margin for error. If you finish unbeaten or have just a single loss, a spot in the final poll is reserved for you. However, with two losses, there is a one in four chance you will not have a shiny number beside your name at the end of the season. A closer inspection of the table will show that as long as you don’t play in one of the very bottom leagues (MAC or Sun Belt), you should be alright with two losses. The only other team that failed to finish ranked with a pair of defeats was Fresno State (and they were walloped in their bowl game). Three losses means you should probably give up the dream of a ranked finish and if you lose four or more games, you can pretty much forget it.

Obviously this analysis failed to include some important variables: Teams that win their bowl game probably tend to finish ranked more often than teams that lose their bowl game despite having the same number of losses. Teams with a better scoring margin (more blowout wins and fewer blowout losses) probably tend to finish ranked more often than teams with a poorer scoring margin despite having the same number of losses. Teams that lose in a conference title game probably tend to finish ranked more often than teams that don’t reach their conference title game despite having the same number of losses. Those are just three that come to mind. I’m sure there are others. That being said, I was still a little disappointed, being a mid-major apologist and all, that non-BCS/Group of 5 teams had such a small margin for error in being ranked. Even if they are not ‘really’ one of the 25 best teams in the country, a poll ranking should be a ‘Gold Star’ congratulating them on a fine season despite systematic disadvantages. Here’s hoping Appalachian State or Georgia Southern can break the glass ceiling in 2016 and become the first ever Sun Belt conference member to finish the season ranked.

Strangers in the Field: II

Last year I went to Vegas and made a few bets. I made a little money (emphasis on little). So I decided, why not go back? Enjoy.

Over/Under Win Totals
The premise here is simple. These bets are on teams to either go 'over' or 'under' a baseline win total.

Cincinnati over 7.5 wins -120 ($40 to win $33.35)
You know who had the best offense in the American last season (based on Yards per Play)? It wasn't Houston. It wasn't Memphis. It wasn't South Florida. It wasn't Navy. Obviously based on this bet, it was Cincinnati. The Bearcats limped to a 7-5 regular season and then were embarrassed on Christmas Eve by San Diego State in the Hawaii Bowl. The Bearcats primary issues were on defense last season where they finished ninth in the twelve team American in Yards per Play and in regards to turnovers where they committed 23 in eight league games (second worst to UCF's 25). 16 of those were interceptions thrown by Gunner Kiel and Hayden Moore. The defense returns eight starters so there should be improvement on that side of the ball, and if Kiel and Moore can limit their mistakes, the Bearcats could be in for a special season in 2016. The non-conference schedule features a road game at Purdue and a home game against BYU, but an undefeated run outside of American action would not be too surprising. In conference play, the Bearcats get Houston, Memphis, and South Florida at home where they are 15-3 under Tommy Tuberville. If things break right, the Bearcats could find themselves in discussion for the Group of 5's NY6 bowl bid when the calendar turns to November. It wouldn't be the first time Tuberville enjoyed a fantastic season seemingly out of nowhere. 

Fresno State over 4 wins -115 ($40 to win $34.80)
Tim DeRuyter might be the poster child for why you want to leave a mid-major job too early rather than too late. During his first two years in charge of the Bulldogs, they went 20-6 with a pair of Mountain West titles (one shared). However, since Derek Carr and Davante Adams left following the 2013 season, the Bulldogs are 9-17. Last season, the Bulldogs finished 3-9, which was their lowest win total since 1978! Per Yards per Play, the Bulldogs had the worst offense in the Mountain West last season. However, some of that can be attributed to injuries at the quarterback position where two starters were lost for the season. With better health and improved play at the most important position, the Bulldogs should move closer to the middle of the conference on offense. Another reason for optimism is the non-conference schedule. Over the past two seasons, Fresno State faced, BYU, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Southern Cal, and Utah (twice) in non-conference play. The Bulldogs lost those six games by an average of 37 points! Nebraska is on the schedule again in 2016, but the other three non-conference games are against Sacramento State, Toledo, and Tulsa. Toledo and Tulsa were bowl squads last season, but the Bulldogs at least have hopes of finishing better than 1-3 in non-conference play. I think the Bulldogs will get to four wins, and a surprise bowl season would not surprise me.

Georgia Tech over 6.5 wins +125 ($40 to win $50)
I'll be honest, Paul Johnson is one of my favorite college football coaches. So I am probably a bit biased in making this bet. I love the fact that the triple option is being featured at a BCS/P5 school. And regardless of how Johnson's career ends in Atlanta, there is really no argument the option has worked. His offense has ranked in the top half of the ACC in terms of Yards per Play seven times in his eight seasons. The defense on the other hand, has been the Achilles Heal (Stinger?) for the Yellow Jackets. The defense has finished in the bottom half of the ACC seven times in his eight seasons. Now, he is culpable for their struggles on defense, be it poor recruiting, poor development, or bad hires at coordinator positions, but lets just remember the option can work at the BCS/P5 level. But I digress. The Yellow Jackets finished 3-9 last season, which marked their fewest wins since 1994. However, six of their nine defeats came by eight points or less. When a team loses that many one-score games, they usually improve the following season. Of course, Vegas expects Georgia Tech to improve. In fact, for this bet to cash, the Yellow Jackets have to more than double their 2015 regular season win total. Before bottoming out at 1-7 last season, Paul Johnson had developed a pretty consistent track record in conference play. Here are his conference won/loss records through his first seven seasons. 

If Johnson can guide the Yellow Jackets to a 4-4 league record, I feel pretty confident they will get to seven wins. Georgia and Georgia Southern will present a challenge in non-conference play, but home games against Mercer and Vanderbilt should be wins. Maybe this is the end of the line for Johnson at Georgia Tech. Maybe the quality of coaches in the ACC Coastal (Cutcliffe, Fedora, Fuente, Mendenhall, Narduzzi, and Richt) and his inability to field an above average defense will lead to a second consecutive losing season, but I think Johnson has a rebound in him even if I am a bit biased.

Kansas over 1.5 wins -155 ($40 to win $25.80)
Outside of NC State (see a few lines down) this is probably the wager I am most confident in. Make no mistake, Kansas is bad and should once again be the worst team in the Big 12, but even if they lose all their conference games, the Jayhawks have a good shot at cashing this ticket. They face Rhode Island (not only an FCS team, but a bad one) and Ohio in non-conference home games, so they may hit the over before mid-September. Even if they fall to Ohio, I feel pretty assured Kansas will pull off at least one upset in their last ten games. 

Maryland over 5 wins -120 ($40 to win $33.35)
After four and a half years of the milquetoast Randy Edsall, maybe Ralph Friedgen wasn't so bad eh? To replace Edsall, the Terrapins tabbed Michigan defensive coordinator DJ Durkin. Durkin is under 40, has worked for successful head coaches like Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh, and filled out his staff with a few former FBS head coaches (Pete Lembo and Mike London). There is a lot to like here despite the fact that Maryland plays in the tougher Big 10 division and must endure annual clashes with Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State (to say nothing of Penn State). Still, the Terrapins were not as bad as their 1-7 Big 10 record would indicate last season and the non-conference schedule is very soft in 2016. The Terrapins do make the unusual double mid-major road trip when they travel south to Florida to take on FIU and UCF in back-to-back weeks. Even though those games are on the road, the Terrapins should finish non-conference play 3-0 and just need a pair of Big 10 wins to hit the push. Home games against Purdue and Rutgers should do the trick and I wouldn't be surprised if Maryland steals another game somewhere and finishes bowl eligible. 

NC State over 3 wins -120 ($25 to win $20.85)
Out of all the over under totals I saw in Sin City, this one was the most perplexing. Outside of Dave Doeren's first season in 2013, the Wolfpack have won at least five (but never more than eight) regular season games since 2007. Their non-conference schedule is tougher than usual by NC State's typical low standards (the Wolfpack host Notre Dame), but they open with William and Mary, East Carolina, and Old Dominion before the difficulty ratchets up. I could see NC State dropping the road game at East Carolina, but at worst that would leave them needing just a single conference win to push. Even with the loss of quarterback Jacoby Brissett, it is very hard to see NC State going under this number.

New Mexico under 7 wins -145 ($40 to win $27.60)
I know a few lines up I professed my love for the option and New Mexico fits the bill of an exciting option team. Consider that the average New Mexico game since Bob Davie became the coach in 2012 has featured over 63 combined points! Unfortunately, more than 34 of those points have come courtesy of New Mexico's opponent. Hence their 18-32 record (which is of course marked improvement over the previous regime). It says a lot when a defense that ranked tenth in Yards per Play (6.11 per play) represents the high water mark for the team under Davie. 

The Lobos went 5-3 in Mountain West play last season and conservatively assuming a 3-1 non-conference record in 2016 (likely loss is a road game at Rutgers), they would need to do at least that well to hit the over. New Mexico won three games as a double-digit underdog last season and with a conference schedule that includes Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, and Utah State (not to mention a road date with Hawaii), I see a push as best case scenario for the Lobos.

Old Dominion over 5 wins even ($40 to win $40)
If it wasn't for the great success of Appalachian State and Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt, Old Dominion would be one of the better examples of teams transitioning from FCS (is there a bathroom for that?). In fact, the Monarchs rebooted their program in 2009 after laying dormant since the 1940s. Despite being a newcomer to FBS and football in general, 2015 marked the first losing season for the Monarchs. Despite the losing record, the Monarchs were in position to nab their first ever bowl bid before losing their season finale to FAU 33-31. The Monarchs accomplished this despite losing their all-time leading passer (Taylor Heinicke) after the 2014 season. After a rough start on offense to open 2015 (just over 16 points per game through their first five), the Monarchs scored at least 30 points in six of their last seven games. The offense should remain in the upper half of Conference USA in 2016. Couple that with non-conference games against Hampton and Massachusetts (a cautionary tale for moving up to FBS), and Old Dominion should participate in their first bowl game following the 2016 regular season. 

Games of the Year
Typically betting lines are set on Sunday for games beginning the following week. However, sportsbooks set a few 'Game of the Year' lines for certain games that are months away from occurring. The home team in these games is listed in bold.

September 10th
South Carolina +10.5 Mississippi State -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
South Carolina burned me last year as they tanked while the Ol' Ball Coach slipped into retirement. So naturally, I am on them again. This line just feels a tad too high especially with Mississippi State replacing the best quarterback in school history. Dan Mullen has raised the profile of Mississippi State football, but prior to Dak Prescott becoming one of the best players in college football in 2014, the Bulldogs never ranked higher than fifth in the SEC in Yards per Play under Mullen. 

I think their offense will see a significant decline in 2016, and with what should be an improved defense at South Carolina, this line is about a field goal too high.

September 17th
Ole Miss +6 Alabama -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Alabama has lost three games over the past two seasons. If you are any type of college football fan, you know Ole Miss has inflicted two of those defeats. Can the Rebels make it three in a row? The last team to beat Alabama in three consecutive seasons was LSU which beat the Tide in five consecutive seasons from 2003 to 2007. Thankfully, Ole Miss does not have to actually win this game to cash the ticket. The Rebels are 5-2 against the line as a home underdog under Hugh Freeze and with this game coming early in the season before Alabama usually gets rolling, I like the Rebels to cover here. 

September 17th
UCLA -1.5 BYU -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
After back-to-back ten win seasons, the Bruins slumped to an 8-5 record in 2015. Despite this drop-off, the Bruins were statistically one of the better teams in the Pac-12. They boasted the best defense in the Pac-12 in Yards per Play despite losing linebacker Myles Jack before conference play even began. There should not be much if any regression on that side of the ball in 2016 with nine starters returning. Oh, and UCLA has one of the better young quarterbacks in the nation. The 'Rosen One' if you will. Plus, UCLA is an amazing 17-6 in true road games under Jim Mora. UCLA enters this game off what should be a glorified scrimmage against UNLV. Meanwhile, BYU will be coming off their 'Holy War' battle with Utah. I don't usually like to play team psychologist, but BYU will probably be emotionally spent and this spread is too low to pass up.

November 5th
NC State +15 Florida State -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
NC State has covered against the Seminoles in each of the last five games in Raleigh. The Wolfpack have also won three of those five games. I don't think they have a very realistic shot to win here, but Florida State will be in prime letdown mode after playing in what will likely be the ACC Atlantic Championship Game the week before against Clemson. I think NC State will keep this within two touchdowns.

November 26th
Georgia Tech +13 Georgia -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
This line is probably inflated after Georgia Tech's 3-9 season in 2015 and as I stated earlier, I think Georgia Tech will be much improved in 2016. Once this game actually kicks off, Georgia will probably be favored, but giving nearly two touchdowns against a quality opponent is too much. 

December 10th
Army +11.5 Navy @ Baltimore -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Is this the year? Can Army finally end the nearly decade and a half run of dominance by Navy? While the Midshipmen have won 14 in a row against the Cadets, they have not covered in four of the last five. In fact, Army has kept the game within one score in those four games. I would expect more of the same this season as Army has perhaps their best team since 1996 and Navy loses the all-time NCAA touchdown scorer. 

Conference Champion Bets
I decided to put a few dollars down on a few teams to win their respective leagues.

Cincinnati to win the American +450 ($10 to win $45)
See the earlier write up on the Bearcats. They may end of having to beat league favorite Houston twice, but I thought they were too good a value to pass up.

Eastern Michigan to win the MAC +30000 ($10 to win $3000)
Yes. You read that right. Eastern Michigan has pretty much no chance to win the MAC, but I liked the hire of Chris Creighton in 2014 and I think the Eagles will be much improved in his third season. Their first bowl since 1987 wouldn't shock me, and these odds were too absurd to pass up.

Marshall to win Conference USA +350 ($10 to win $35)
Despite massive attrition on both sides of the ball following their 2014 league title, Marshall still had a chance to play in the Conference USA Championship Game heading into the final weekend of the regular season in 2015. Marshall does return only four starters from one of the best defenses in Conference USA, but the Herd are 20-4 against league foes the past three seasons. The East division of Conference USA may once again come down to Marshall and Western Kentucky over Thanksgiving weekend.

Miscellaneous Bets
This is a college football blog, but there were a few other events I wanted to bet on.

Los Angeles Dodgers to win World Series +150 ($10 to win $150)
Despite the best pitcher of his generation not playing for the last month, the Dodgers have surged and are within striking distance of the Giants in the NL West. If Kershaw can return this season (or postseason), the Dodgers are a threat to win it all.

St Louis Cardinals to win World Series +250 ($10 to win $250)
Despite a rather pedestrian record, St Louis is highly regarded by several advanced metrics. The 538 ELO Ratings rank them seventh in all of MLB. The Simple Rating System over at Baseball Reference has them tied for fourth. They are too far behind to catch the Cubs, so to win the World Series, they will have to start by winning the NL Wild Card Game. Still, these long odds were too good to pass up.

Miami Marlins to win World Series +400 ($10 to win $400)
The Marlins are the anti-Cardinals. They also have a middling record (currently good enough for the second Wild Card in the NL), but are just 18th in the 538 ELO Ratings and tied for 15th in the Simple Rating System. Baseball is a weird game though, particularly with the new Wild Card format. Bad teams have won the World Series before, and with them already sitting in playoff position, I had pull the trigger here. 

Reckless Parlay
I couldn't leave Las Vegas without buying at least one lottery ticket. This is your standard six team parlay. All games must be correct for the parlay to pay out and each game occurs over Labor Day Weekend.
$10 to win $400

Game 1: August 26th 
Hawaii +21 Cal @ Sydney
Yes, college football kicks off about a week earlier than normal. Might as well burn this ticket early.

Game 2: September 1st
Tulane +17 Wake Forest
Can't believe my alma mater is giving this many points. 

Game 3: September 2nd
Army +16 Temple
I think this is the best Army team in quite awhile. Might as well take them getting a lot of points from a team that could be a little overrated. 

Game 4: September 3rd
Georgia Tech -3.5 Boston College @ Dublin
Another college football game in a foreign country. This line is probably half a point too high, but I had to throw a favorite in there somewhere.

Game 5: September 3rd
Wyoming +10.5 Northern Illinois
Wyoming plays their home game at more than 7000 feet above sea level. We'll see if the Huskies have problems adjusting.

Game 6: September 4th
Notre Dame -4.5 Texas
I immediately regretted making this bet after the ticket printed.

Non-Offensive Touchdowns: Coaches and Their Track Records

Last time out we talked about Non-Offensive Touchdowns and examined what teams with extreme positive or negative net non-offensive touchdowns can expect the following season. As I mentioned in the previous post, I calculated Net Non-Offensive Touchdown data for every FBS team in conference play during the eleven year period of 2005 through 2015. While compiling that information, I decided to create a leaderboard of coaches with the best and worst margins to see if certain coaches had a predisposition for good or bad results. Before we dive into the leaderboards, here are a few housekeeping notes. To qualify for the leaderboards, coaches must have been head coaches for at least five seasons during the sample. If a coach has a fantastic or poor net margin after a season or two, it is more likely this is just randomness or noise. If a coach has a similar net margin over a longer time period, it is more likely to be a demonstrable skill. In addition, sometimes coaches are fired midway through a season (shocking, I know). In the interest of making things easier on me, a coaches’ net margin for a particular season is assigned to the gentleman who began the year as head coach. No portion of the net margin is given to his replacement. Using 2015 as an example, Steve Sarkisian is credited with +6 even though he was the head coach for just a third of Southern Cal’s conference schedule. If you disagree, the data is freely available. Feel free to apportion the net margin as you so desire. Finally, the data is not broken down into different kinds of returns (punt, kickoff, interception, etc.). Alright, let’s get to the data. First up, here are the top-ten coaches in terms of positive net margin. I have also included their overall conference record as a reference point.

The top three coaches by this metric have all won national titles since 2005. In fact, they have combined for eight of the eleven national titles won since 2005! Every coach on this list is usually held in high regard by even the most casual college football observer. An exception might be Rick Stockstill who toils in relative obscurity at Middle Tennessee State. While his Blue Raiders are not a national power, they have posted a strong conference record in both the Sun Belt and Conference USA during his decade at the school. Based on the coaches who appear on this list, it makes sense that scoring and preventing non-offensive touchdowns could be a repeatable skill. Or at least emphasizing this tactic in scouting and stressing it in practice could lead to a positive margin over the long haul.

What about the other side of the coin? Here are the bottom-ten coaches in terms of net negative margin. Once again, their overall conference record is included as a reference point.

Whereas the positive margin list was a who’s who of great coaches, the negative list is more of a mixed bag. Certainly, there are good coaches on this list. James Franklin led Vanderbilt to heights many never imagined possible while Howard Schnellenberger built the Florida Atlantic program from nothing. Pat Fitzgerald and Mike Riley have succeeded at notoriously tough locales. Tommy Tuberville had a great run at Auburn (although his greatest success occurred before the period examined here) and Ruffin McNeill had just one losing conference record at East Carolina. Ralph Friedgen is one of the better coaches in Maryland history (although his fantastic start from 2001-2003 is not included in this sample). However, there are a few duds on this list. Ron English, outside of one outlier season, was mostly bad at Eastern Michigan, Bob Toledo could not recreate his UCLA success at Tulane, and Mike London somehow managed to stick around for six seasons in Charlottesville despite winning just 14 conference games. And for the love of all that is holy, please hire a special teams coach Mike Leach! There is more to football than the forward pass (and locking kids in sheds).

So what conclusions can we draw from this? I don’t think it is a coincidence that every coach with a great net margin is highly regarded and considered among the best in their profession. Perhaps they have identified a market inefficiency and focus a disproportionate number of their resources (players, practice time, etc.) on scoring in unconventional ways. Perhaps they specifically recruit players they believe can score on defense or special teams. Or perhaps it is something else. Finally, I ran these numbers for all coaches since 2005, so here is a list of some miscellaneous coaches who failed to make either list. I included every coach since 2005 who either won a national title or coached in the BCS title game or CFP title game. Keep in mind Chip Kelly did not make the main list because he only coached Oregon for four seasons, narrowly missing the threshold for inclusion. I also included a few other coaches that I was curious about. If you have any specific requests, I will be more than happy to share them in the comments. Enjoy.

Non-Offensive Touchdowns: What Can We Learn?

Welcome back dear readers. It has been a while since I last posted, and in the interest of keeping up my streak of at least one post a month, I decided to satiate my esteemed audience. Today we are going to talk about Non-Offensive Touchdowns. These would be touchdowns scored via returns of interceptions, fumbles, punts, kickoffs, blocked kicks, and occasionally (and gloriously) missed field goals. What I have done in the last month is meticulously sift through data from cfbstats.com and box scores available at sports-reference.com/cfb/ (big thank you to these two great sites) to find every return touchdown between conference opponents since 2005. I neglected to included non-conference games, championship games, and postseason contests (which are non-conference games) because the other numbers I use on this site are all focused around conference play. Sorry Notre Dame and Army fans. Using these numbers, I tested a simple hypothesis: While return touchdowns are modicum of skill, they are also highly random events that can tilt the outcome of an individual game. Thus, teams with an extreme positive net non-offensive touchdown margin (return touchdowns scored minus return touchdowns allowed) will tend to decline the following season. Similarly, teams with an extreme negative net non-offensive touchdown margin will tend to improve the following season. What is an ‘extreme’ net non-offensive touchdown margin? I decided to use + or – 4. This number is a bit arbitrary, but in the context of a conference season that lasts only seven, eight, or nine games, this seems a reasonable baseline for extreme. Well, was I right?

The following table lists the results for teams with an extreme positive net non-offensive touchdown margin from 2005-2014.

75 teams met the standard of +4. On average, these teams with extreme positive margins declined by about a game in the conference standings the next season. Looking at the data another way, only about a quarter of the teams improved the next season while more than 60% declined. A little more than 13% finished with the same conference record the next season. With conference expansion, since teams occasionally play a different number of conference games from one year to the next (because of changes in their conference affiliation or changes in their current conference’s size), I considered any conference record within a half game to be ‘stayed same’. For example, Central Michigan went 7-1 in the MAC in 2006 with a margin of +5 so they are included as an extreme positive team. The next year they played just seven league games thanks to the addition of Temple to the conference. Though their record ‘declined’ to 6-1, it is within a half game and considered the same for bookkeeping purposes.

What about teams with extreme negative net non-offensive touchdown margins? The following table summarizes the results for those teams from 2005-2014.

63 teams met the standard of -4. On average, these teams improved by about a game in the conference standings the next season (quite similar to the one game decline by the other group). About 57% of the teams improved the following season, a little more than one-fifth got worse, and 22% stayed the same. Once again, a difference of only a half game in either direction was considered ‘stayed same’. So yes, I was correct in my initial hypothesis. Teams with extreme positive net non-offensive touchdown margins tend to decline the following season and those with extreme negative margins tend to improve. However, while real, the impact should not be overstated. Nearly 40% of those teams with extreme positive margins either stayed the same or got better and more than 40% of those with extreme negative margins either stayed the same or got worse.

So, which teams from 2015 met the standard of + or – 4? Glad you asked. Take a gander at this table.

Of the six teams with extreme positive margins, four (Alabama, Arkansas State, Houston, and Michigan State) won their respective leagues. In fact, three of the teams played in the College Football Playoff or New Year’s Six bowls. Plus, Southern Cal also won their division and played for the Pac-12 title. Be wary when projecting these teams to repeat in 2015. Perhaps the most interesting team with an extreme positive margin is Washington. The Huskies are getting a lot of preseason love and have probably shed their status as Pac-12 sleeper heading into 2016. It’s interesting their extreme margin could not land them a winning conference record in 2015.

On the other side of the same coin, only two of the six teams with extreme negative margins played in the postseason in 2015. Cincinnati finished with at least six losses for the first time since 2010 and the seat is probably getting a little warm for Tommy Tuberville. Don’t be surprised if the esteemed Tuberville has one of his patented ‘out of nowhere’ fantastic seasons in 2016. Washington State was the other school to qualify for the postseason despite an extreme negative margin. Somehow the Cougars finished with their best record in more than a decade. Looking at this list, perhaps the three other mid-major strugglers and the Big 12’s resident punching bag can show some signs of life in 2016.

2015 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Sun Belt

Last week, we looked at how Sun Belt teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually.

Once again, here are the 2015 Sun Belt standings.

And here are the APR standings sorted by rank with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only.

Finally, Sun Belt teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Arkansas State and Troy saw their actual record differ from their APR by more than a game and a half each. These two schools also saw their records differ significantly from their expected records based on YPP. So, instead of rehashing what I said last week, let’s take a sojourn through Sun Belt history.

For most of its existence, the Sun Belt has been the weakest of all the FBS conferences. It has been the home of FBS nomads and neophytes. No Sun Belt school has ever been ranked or finished a season ranked (former member Western Kentucky did end the year ranked in 2015). This of course does not mean the Sun Belt lacks entertaining football. I for one, enjoy their midweek games. So let’s celebrate the fifteen years the Sun Belt has been an FBS conference by revisiting all their wins against BCS and Power 5 opponents. Sun Belt teams have won 20 games against BCS/P5 opponents. Those wins are listed by year in the tables below.

Sun Belt teams did not win any games against Power 5 opponents in 2015, but they did win eight in the four-year span from 2011-2014, so hopefully they can get back their winning ways in 2016. Feel free to peruse the table at your leisure, but I have combed through the results and come up with a few Sun Belt superlatives. Enjoy.

Most Wins Vs BCS/P5: Middle Tennessee State
The Blue Raiders, a former Sun Belt member, have beaten six BCS/P5 teams while playing under the Sun Belt banner. Their best win was probably the beatdown of a Georgia Tech team that would play in the 2012 ACC Championship Game (thanks to a technicality). For current members, Louisiana-Monroe has the most wins against BCS/P5 opponents with four.

Most Losses Vs Sun Belt: Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt has three losses to Sun Belt teams with all three coming to Middle Tennessee State. The last loss in 2005 was particularly damaging as it kept a Commodore team with Jay Cutler at the helm home for the holidays. Vanderbilt would rebound and qualify for a bowl game just three seasons later, but at the time it had to feel like a huge missed opportunity for the Commodores in their quest to end their two-decade bowl drought.

Largest Margin of Victory: North Texas over Baylor 52-14
My, how times have changed. North Texas was in the midst of winning the first four Sun Belt league championships while Baylor was a perennial Big 12 punching bag. Baylor won the return match in Waco the following year, and I think they would be favored if the two were to play in 2016.

Best Finish: Western Kentucky over Kentucky 32-31
Overtime: Check. Two-point conversion for the win. Check. A video is worth a thousand words.
This concludes our in depth look at all ten FBS conferences. I will be back sporadically throughout the summer with some gambling advice, a Vegas trip recap, and perhaps a few season previews. In the meantime, check my Twitter for witty observations and my Instagram for humorous memes. Thanks for reading.

2015 Yards Per Play: Sun Belt

We now turn our attention to the final conference alphabetically. Here are the Sun Belt standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Sun Belt team. This includes conference play only. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s Yards per Play (YPP). Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards per Play and Yards per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2015 season, which teams in the Sun Belt met this threshold? Here are the Sun Belt teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

The 2015 Sun Belt season saw a pair of teams with records that diverged significantly from their expected records based on YPP. The league champion, Arkansas State, significantly over-performed their expected record, and former league heavyweight, Troy, significantly under-performed under first year coach Neal Brown. Arkansas State was a bit unusual as they went unbeaten in Sun Belt play and won each of their conference games by at least ten points. How were they able to win games so easily despite good, but not great YPP numbers? For starters, they boasted a turnover margin of +17 in their eight Sun Belt games. A few weeks ago, in the Mountain West YPP post, I examined similar teams that averaged turnover margins greater than +2 per game or less than -2 per game. Like San Diego State, Arkansas State is due for some regression in the turnover department and likely in their record as well. In addition to their healthy turnover margin, Arkansas State also managed to score in unconventional ways. They scored eight non-offensive touchdowns in Sun Belt play (five interception returns, two fumble returns, and one punt return), and their net non-offensive touchdown margin was the highest in the conference by far.

As you can see, Troy also had a solid non-offensive touchdown margin, but the Trojans finished 0-3 in one-score league games. Meanwhile, all their wins came in dominating fashion, with each coming by at least 24 points. 

One of the bigger surprises (at least to me) from the 2015 Sun Belt season was the struggle of Louisiana-Lafayette. After four consecutive bowl appearances (and wins) under head coach Mark Hudspeth (perhaps the strongest FBS coach), the Ragin' Cajuns slipped to a 4-8 record and finished in the bottom half of the conference. Was this a random blip for Lafayette or a sign of things to come? To try and answer this question with something aside from wild speculation, I looked at other coaches who like Mark Hudspeth: began coaching since 1984 (the relative modern era), coached at an FBS mid-major (like Louisiana-Lafayette), had at least four consecutive winning seasons to begin their tenure, and then suffered a losing campaign. Perhaps not surprisingly, with so many stipulations, only six other coaches met the criteria. And one of them is probably familiar to Ragin' Cajun fans. The following table lists the six coaches, the school they coached at, their record in their first few years until their losing year, the year they suffered a losing record, the year they got back to their winning ways (if they ever did), and their career record after their first losing season. I know that's a lot to digest, but take a look at the table, and I'll summarize later.

To help you read the table, I'll go through Fisher DeBerry's row. DeBerry coached at Air Force and posted a 35-14 record in his first four years. In his fifth year, the Falcons slipped to 5-7. His charges rebounded immediately, posting a winning record in his sixth season. All told, after going 5-7 in his fifth season, DeBerry managed a 129-88-1 record over the next 18 seasons at Air Force.

Of the six coaches who met the criteria, I think we safely say just two could be deemed 'successful' after their first losing campaign, and both happened to coach for the Air Force Academy. Fisher DeBerry rebounded from his first losing season to spend 18 additional years at the school. His successor, Troy Calhoun, has also bounced back from his first losing season. The three seasons since his first losing year have resulted in a rather mediocre 20-19 overall record, but that includes a putrid 2-10 record in 2013. Over the past two seasons, the Falcons are 18-9, with a division championship. The other Lafayette coach, Nelson Stokley (father of Super Bowl hero Brandon Stokley), lasted eight years at Lafayette after his first losing season, but posted just three winning records over that span. The other three coaches, Gary Blackney, Tom Amstutz, and Gary Darnell (all MAC coaches coincidentally), failed to produce any winning seasons after their first losing campaign. Based on an admittedly small sample size, 2016 appears to be a very important year for Mark Hudspeth. DeBerry and Calhoun got back to their winning ways within two years after posting their first losing season. The lesson appears to be that despite past success, mid-major coaches have a very short time frame to pull out of their tailspin. Either the plane crashes or someone else hops in the pilot seat.