Shakedown Saturday

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 15-13

BYU at Boston College
Both the Cougars and Eagles seek to continue the momentum they built up last week in home victories. The games themselves couldnt't have been more different. BYU destroyed Conference USA favorite Tulsa 49-24 while Boston College used some clutch special teams plays to knock off chic ACC pick Clemson 34-33. If Boston College wins this game, they will likely be 5-0 heading into a rough 2-game midseason stretch when they play Virginia Tech in Chestnut Hill and Florida State in Tallahassee. A win for BYU would perhaps signal a return to Mountain West dominance after a 4-season run in the middle of the pack. BYU struggled on offense in their first game this season against a BCS school losing 16-13 to Arizona. However, Boston College has not been strong defensively so far this season, giving up 366 yards to Central Michigan and 479 to Clemson. Still, I can't pick the Cougars to travel cross-country and beat one of college football's better coaches in his own backyard.
Winner: Boston College

Michigan State at Pittsburgh
Two teams that disappointed last year seek to start out 2006 3-0. A win for Sparty would mean a 3-0 start heading into the Notre Dame game next weekend. Along with Michigan and Ohio State thats the only real game Sparty can expect to lose. So a win this week makes a 10-win season a possibilty (with the bowl game). As for Pittsburgh, a win here and the Panthers will likely be 7-0 heading into a home showdown (that's right showdown) with Rutgers. Pittsburgh has handled Virginia and Cincinnati with relative ease so far this season. While no one is confusing those teams with the 95 Cornhuskers, they are a step up from Michigan State's first two opponents (Idaho and Eastern Michigan). The Panthers are more battle tested, have the better defense, and are playing at home. Oh ya, and John L. Smith still coaches Sparty.
Winner: Pittsburgh

Iowa St. at Iowa
These two midwestern schools with high expectations for 2006 have gotten off to underwhelming starts. While both schools are 2-0, Iowa St. has slipped by Toledo (0-2) in triple OT thanks to a dropped pass on a 2-point conversion and UNLV (1-1) by a 16-10 score thanks to a very controversial call. Iowa on the other hand was up only 17-7 in the 3rd quarter against Montana and then without quarterback Drew Tate, needed a goal line stand to hold off Syracuse (possibly the worst BCS team). Iowa State has played very well in this game since 2000, winning 4 of 6 including inflicting the Hawkeyes only regular season loss in 2002. However, the Hawkeyes have too much talent to lose to their archrivals at home.
Winner: Iowa

Ole Miss at Kentucky
Fresh off a drubbing at the hands of Missouri, Ole Miss heads to the Blugrass State to try and pick up their first SEC win since beating Kentucky in October of last season and first SEC road win since beating South Carolina in 2004. With Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, and LSU still left on the slate, the Rebels desperately need a win to harbor any hopes of bowl eligibility. Kentucky has the same sentiments. Florida, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and South Carolina remain on their schedule so a win here is a muct if Rich Brooks has any hopes of appeasing the faithful with a 6-6 season. Both teams were whalloped by the good teams they played (Louisville and Missouri). Kentucky soundly defeated their other opponent, Texas State, while Ole Miss edged Memphis by 3 points. In a close game, Ole Miss will get a crucial road victory for Ed Orgeron.
Winner: Ole Miss

Missouri at New Mexico
Under Gary Pinkel, Missouri has a nasty habit of dropping winnable non-conference games (Bowling Green in 2001 and 2002, Troy in 2004, and New Mexico last season). That track record should have most Tigers fans worried. However, this looks to be the best Missouri team since Corby Jones was under center in the late 90's. They plowed over non-Division I Murray State on Labor Day Weekend and then stomped Ole Miss last week. Quarterback Chase Daniel is running the no-huddle attack to perfection. Couple that with a suspect New Mexico team that lost to non-Division I Portland State in their first game and narrowly edged New Mexico State (winless last season) in their second and you have all the makings of a home invasion. New Mexico may keep it close until halftime, but the Missouri offense will prove to be too prolific.
Winner: Missouri

Clemson at Florida State
Both teams should be undefeated heading into Bowden Bowl VIII. Unfortunatley for Clemson, some special teams gaffes cost them against a Boston College team that they outgained by 150 yards. Does that sound familiar? It should. A poor snap on a punt helped Georgia Tech escape Death Valley in 2004 and a botched fake field goal attempt set the wheels in motion for an upset loss to Wake Forest last season. A loss here pretty much eliminates Clemson from ACC contention before September is out. Not something every media pundit envisioned during the ACC media days. Of course, a loss is certainly not a sure thing here. Florida State has real issues running the football. Excluding sacks (which the NCAA counts when computing rushing yards for some strange reason) the Seminoles have rushed 27 times for 85 yards (3.15 yards per rush). That's Arizona Cardinals territory. Of course the first game did come against Miami, who by all accounts has a pretty stout defense, but the second game against the Men of Troy...Alabama. While it remains to be seen how good Troy is, the fact remains they are still a Sun Belt school and have no business being close against a top-20 team on the road. Still, the homefield, Clemson's injury woes on defense, and some inevitable special teams blunders by the Tigers will shift the the game in Florida State's favor.
Winner: Florida State

Texas Tech at TCU
15 years ago this would have been a conference game between two comparable southwest schools. Now its an opportunity for TCU to thumb its nose at not only the Red Raiders, but also the Big XII who left them out when Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Baylor joined in 1996. A win for the Horned Frogs will make a BCS bid a possibilty, but they still must navigate the tough Mountain West conference (with games against BYU and Utah) with with no more than one loss. Texas Tech is trying to build on their Cotton Bowl appearance and make a push toward the top of the Big XII South with the departure of Vince Young at Texas and the seeming vulnerability of Oklahoma. The Red Raiders were nearly upset in a road contest at a mid-major Texas school last week (UTEP). This week they won't be so lucky and Mike Leach will be wishing he had kept last year's non-conference schedule (Indiana State, Sam Houston State, and Florida International).
Winner: TCU

Fresno State at Washington
Fresno State is 0-1 in Pac-10 play after losing a great game to Oregon on Saturday night. The Huskies hung with Oklahoma in Norman last week before succumbing 37-20, showing some steady progress in Ty Willingham's second year. Road games are always a challenge and this game will be no different for Fresno. In what should be a high-scoring affair, Fresno will survive and claim their first victory over a BCS school since their 2004 MPC Computers Bowl win over Virginia.
Winner: Fresno State

Oklahoma at Oregon
6 degrees of O for 2006:
1. Oklahoma beat Washington 37-20
2. Washington beat San Jose State 35-29
3. San Jose State beat Stanford 35-34
4. Oregon beat Stanford 48-10

Of well, its only 4 degrees. So what does this exercise tell us? It lets us know Stanford is probably in for a long season, but doesn't tell us much about these two teams. In 2004, Oregon lost at Oklahoma 31-7. In 2005, Oregon lost to Oklahoma on a neutral field 17-14. In the cozy confines of Autzen Stadium, Oregon will take care of the Sooners in a tight affair.
Winner: Oregon

Miami at Louisville
The Cardinals always seem to deliver at Papa John's Stadium. However, Miami is certainly not Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, or some run of the mill Big East team. The U will definitely be bringing the defense, but can they slow down the prolific Cardinals attack? Slow down is the key word. They will be able to limit the Cardinals offense (they won't hanf 50 on The U) and Louisville has been less than impressive on defense. They did shut out hapless Temple (who only scored 3 on Buffalo), but also allowed 28 points to Kentucky. Miami will cool Larry Coker's hot seat and get back on track with a win here.
Winner: Miami

Michigan at Notre Dame
After struggling against a very good Georgia Tech defense, Notre Dame obliterated Penn State last weekend. Michigan has prepared for this game by hosting and disposing of Vanderbilt and Central Michigan. The games were not close, but I got the feeling the Wolverines were only going through the motions in preparation for this big road opener. Michigan has lost 2 in a row and 3 of 4 to the Irish. Michigan's losses have been by 2, 7, and 8 points, while their one victory was by 38. Of course, Notre Dame has not exactly been a dominant team (with the exception of last season) in those games Michigan lost. The 2002 Notre Dame team that beat them was 10-3, but like Agatha Christie, they did it with mirrors. The 2004 Notre Dame team that beat them was only 6-6. In fact, since 2000 in road games against teams with winning records, mighty Michigan is only 9-10. Make it 9-11 after this weekend.
Winner: Notre Dame

Nebraska at Southern Cal
Is Nebraska back? Since being embarrassed 40-15 by Kansas to drop their record to 5-4 in November of last season, the Huskers have won 5 in a row. The average margin of victory in those 5 games is over 24 points. So they're back right? Not so fast my friend. The best team they have beaten in that span was the worst Michigan team since 1984 by 4 points. They also won by 2 points over a 5-6 Kansas State team. Their point differential is boosted by a 27 point beatdown over a 7-6 Colorado program that has lost 6 games in a row, a 39 point home win over Louisiana Tech (who may end up being a solid WAC team), and a 49 point home win over non-Division IA Nicholls State. So let's hold off on the proclamations. Southern Cal is definitely a step up in competition and the games in the Coliseum where Southern Cal has not lost since...2 games ago. But seriously, the Trojans have not lost a home game since 2001. The Huskers will realize they have a long way to go after this game
Winner: Southern Cal

Florida at Tennessee
Which Volunteers team will show up Saturday night? The one that stomped Cal or the one that squeaked by Air Force. Methinks it will be somewhere in between. The Tennessee offense is certainly much better than last season, but Florida has a top-flight defense, and Meyer's offenses always do better in his second season. Rocky Top will be rocking on Saturday night, but Florida is simply too talented to lose to Tennessee.
Winner: Florida

LSU at Auburn
This one should be a jam-up SEC battle and the only sure thing is that the Tigers will win. Last year, Auburn's kicking struggles contributed to an overtime loss. Two years ago, LSU's kicking struggles contributed to a 10-9 loss. Games involving evenly matched teams are often decided by special teams. If that's the case Auburn may have the advantage. Auburn's kicker John Vaughn is 6 for 7 on field goal attempts this season including knocking down 2 over 50 yards (long 55). LSU's two kickers have gone 2-2 with a long of 33. If Auburn needs a long field goal to win, they know Vaughn has the ability.LSU should take Gordona Lightfoot's advice:

Sundown, you better take care
When I find you been creeping 'round Jordan-Hare
Winner: Auburn

Blog Poll Week III

1 Southern Cal-- DNP (LW 1)
2 Ohio State-- I guess I'm a believer (LW 4)
3 Auburn-- Drop only because of the Buckeyes' rise (LW 2)
4 Notre Dame-- laid a whooping on Penn State (LW 6)
5 Georgia-- roughed up the Cock N' Fire (LW 10)
6 LSU-- game with Auburn should be a doozy (LW 14)
7 Louisville-- why does Temple even field a team? (LW 9)
8 Florida-- tune ups over (LW 11)
9 Virginia Tech-- offense not particulary impressive against North Carolina (LW 8)
10 Texas-- best of the one loss bunch (LW 5)
11 Florida State-- what happened? (LW 7)
12 Iowa-- did everything but lose against Syracuse (LW 3)
13 Michigan-- a win over the Irish would do wonders for Carr's detractors (LW 13)
14 Miami-- big non-conference game against Louisville (LW 12)
15 Nebraska-- have to be the favorites in the Big 12North (LW 23)
16 Pittsburgh-- won on the road for first time under Wanny (LW 15)
17 Tennessee-- almost blew all their good will against Air Force (LW 16)
18 Missouri-- Chase Daniel playing better than Brad Smith (LW NR)
19 West Virginia-- Maryland will be the biggest test for a while (LW 18)
20 Oklahoma-- Adrian Peterson is the reason God made Oklahoma (LW 19)
21 Cal-- got back on track against Minnesota (LW 22)
22 Texas A&M-- still practicing (LW 20)
23 Boise State-- waxed the Beavs after falling behind early (LW 24)
24 Texas Tech-- won possibly the weekend's best game against UTEP (LW NR)
25 Arkansas-- I still believe (LW 25)

Teams that dropped out:
17 Clemson-- unfortunate gaffes in the kicking game
21 Purdue-- something is terribly wrong with the defense

Teams creeping around:
Boston College-- probably not as good as Clemson, but they did win the game
Rutgers-- the pauper is now the prince? (or at least a land owner)
UCLA-- now the schedule toughens up
Arizona State-- looked much better in game 2
TCU-- chance to make a statement at home against Texas Tech

College Football Delayed Reaction

1. I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong about Missouri. Chase Daniel looked great running the no-huddle offense. Even though the Tigers lost all-everything quarterback Brad Smith, they may be in for their best season in a long time.

2. Some former high-major coaches at mid-major places are making big differences in their second seasons. At Ohio, Frank Solich has the Bobcats 2-0 including an upset over Northern Illinois this past weekend. The Bobcats travel to Rutgers and Missouri the next two weekends, so are probably in for a losing streak, but they have a real shot at becoming bowl eligible and making some noise in the MAC. In his second season at San Jose State, Dick Tomey has the Spartans sitting at 1-1 in the Pac 10 after a one point win over Stanford and a 6 point loss at Washington. With 6 more home games left on the slate, the Spartans also have a chance to finish bowl eligible.

3. The kicking game is still important. A blocked extra point likely cost Clemson a win at Boston College. A blocked 28-yard field goal allowed my alma mater to escape over lowly Duke. And finally, a missed extra point allowed Virginia to escape at home against Wyoming.

4. Were the close contests by Florida State and Tennessee, against Troy and Air Force repectively, signs that those teams are a little overrated or indicative of two powerhouses looking ahead to much bigger games (Clemson and Florida) next week?

5. Is Drew Tate that important to Iowa? Suddenly the Buckeyes road game in Iowa is not looking all that difficult.

Lines of the Night 9/9

Quarterback

Chase Holbrook, New Mexico State
Passing: 37-56 passing, 472 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception
Rushing: 9 attempts, -22 yards, 0 touchdowns

Smithers, you never told me there was a New Mexico. The transfer from Southeastern Louisiana (where he played under Mumme), did his best Tim Couch impression in a shootout loss to the rival Lobos.

Running Back

Yonus Davis, San Jose State
Rushing: 23 attempts, 185 yards, 1 touchdown
Receiving: 1 catch, 2 yards, 0 touchdowns

The onus was on Yonus as he helped lead the Spartans to an upset victory over Stanford. Does Dick Tomey have a WAC team on the rise in San Jose?

Receiver/Tight End

Joel Filani, Texas Tech
Rushing: 0 attempts, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns
Receiving: 10 catches, 169 yards, 1 touchdown

After a 1000 yard season in 2005, the senior receiver is well on his way to topping those numbers thus far in 2006.

Texas Two Step

A big weekend for the college game highlighted by the first #1 versus #2 matchup since...
8 months ago. Statistical will try and perform much better in his prognostications than last weeks 7-7 debacle that has him clearly on the hot seat. Expect a Phil Fulmer-esque return to dominance this week.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Chad John...Oh wait. Instead of an AFC North rivalry game, we get this Friday night showdown between two teams looking to open with a strong showing in Big East play. Pitt comes off a 38-13 shellacking of Virginia while the Bearcats recorded a shutout over Labor Day weekend over the Colonels of Eastern Kentucky. Cincinnati faces a big step up in competition this week, while Pitt plays a team that is certainly less talented than the Wahoo team they smacked around last week. It's college football, so the homefield will keep this one close for a while, but Pitt will prevail.
Winner: Pittsburgh

Illinois at Rutgers
Last season the Ron Zook era began in dramatic fashion with a victory over the Scarlet Knights. Since that game, Illinois has won only twice (San Jose State and Eastern Illinois), while Rutgers has won twice as many as they've lost (8-4). Rutgers was impressive in winning at North Carolina last week. Running backs Ray Rice and Pierre Thomas will be the stars of this game. Expect Rice to expand on his 200+ rushing yards he had last week and run over the Illinois linebackers and secondary.
Winner: Rutgers

Ole Miss at Missouri
The Brent Schaeffer era got off to a nice start with a hard-fought 28-25 win over Memphis. Schaeffer's passing numbers were not good (7 of 16 for 97 yards), but he ran efficiently and Ed Orgeron called lots of handoffs to running back (Indiana transfer) BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Missoui's opener was much easier (47-7 beat down of Murray State--luv ya mean it). Schaeffer is far from being a complete quarterback and against the better BCS teams he will be contained. Against Missouri, he'll make enough plays to keep Ole Miss undefeated.
Winner: Ole Miss

Penn State at Notre Dame
This one won't live up to expectations. Quarterback Anthony Morelli completed only half his passes and running backs rushed for under 50 yards against defensive stalwart Akron. While Notre Dame is certainly not a great defensive team, their offense will do plenty against the Penn State defense. The Irish win a laugher.
Winner: Notre Dame

Washington at Oklahoma
Both the Huskies and the Sooners had tougher than expected openers. Washington survived a game (and up and coming?) San Jose State squad 35-29. The Sooners, partly thanks to Watson Brown's misunderstanding of the new clock rules, squeaked by UAB 24-17. Oklahoma is not the juggernaut they were prior to 2005 (at least not yet), but they will do enough to put away Washington at home.
Winner: Oklahoma

Clemson at Boston College
Los Tigres head into Chestnut Hill with a chance for a special season. Boston College is coming off a narrow win over the Chippewas of Central Michigan, where they nearly blew a 21-point 4th quarter lead. Quarterback Will Procter is still learning on the job, but Clemson's defense is for real and may be one of the best in the country. The Tigers take a defensive struggle.
Winner: Clemson

Tulsa at BYU
While most eyes are focuses on the battle down in Austin or South Bend, one of the best battles between two mid-majors occurs in Provo, Utah. BYU lost a game they very well could have won against Arizona (they outgained the Wildcats by almost 100 yards). Tulsa on the other hand had what amounts to a scrimmage against Stephen F. Austin. There's only so much one man can do. Expect BYU to be a tough luck 0-2 after this game.
Winner: Tulsa

Colorado State versus Colorado @ Denver
Colorado wants to get back on the football field as soon as possible after pissing the bed against Montana State in an Hawkins debut. The last 4 games in this series have been decided by 5 points or less with Colorado taking the least 3. Expect more of the same as Colorado's outstanding kicker, Mason Crosby, will be the difference.
Winner: Colorado

Arizona at LSU
Year 3 of the Mike Stoops era began with a whimper. Although the Wildcats did win at home against BYU, they did everything, but lose the game. While the Cougar and Bengal Tiger are both in the cat family, the Tiger is certainly a different beast. LSU will roll in this one.
Winner: LSU

Minnesota at California
Minnesota's fo-fo made sure al the Golden Flashes didn't grow in a 44-0 shutout last Thursday night. Continuing their recent tradition of power running, ex-linebacker Amir Daniels had 155 yards. Cal was humbled in their road trip to Knoxville, actually going down 35-0 at one point. Cal proved they are not top-10 material, but they will handle the Golden Gophers especially outside.
Winner: California

Georgia at South Carolina
The Cock N' Fire had some sludge in the chamber against Mississippi State. The Bulldog defense held the Gamecocks to one non-trick touchdown and if they could have mustered any offense at all, would have been on the verge of an upset. Georgia has some issues at quarterback, but should have the defense to win a squeaker in Columbia.
Winner: Georgia

Texas Tech at UTEP
Mike and Mike in the evening. Both Mike's have done a fine job at their respective schools. UTEP was a laughing stock when Mike Price got there, but he has turned them into a Conference USA power. Mike Leach has raised the Red Raiders to new heights in the Big 12 (actually finishing second in the South last season). Leach has more than enough talent to make up for the homefield edge.
Winner: Texas Tech

Oregon at Fresno State
Last season's contest was a 37-34 shootout won by Kellen Clemens and Oregon in Autzen Stadium. This year's game is in Fresno and there's no Kellen Clemens.
Winner: Fresno State

Ohio State at Texas
Saturday night's main course is battle of 1 versus 2. Texas has been hit by some suspensions this week and Troy Smith sure looked great against Northen Illinois. I like history to repeat itself with a the Longhorns pulling out a nailbiter.
Winner: Texas

Blog Poll Week II

My ballot for week 2.

1 Southern Cal-- hung half a hundred on the Hogs (LW 1)
2 Auburn-- Kenny Irons, channeling Bo Jackson? (LW 2)
3 Iowa-- tuning up for Ohio State (LW 3)
4 Ohio State-- Northern Illinois never in the game (LW 6)
5 Texas-- big game this weekend (understatement of the week) (LW 5)
6 Notre Dame-- not necessarily impressive, but got the win (LW 10)
7 Florida State-- defense was excellent against Miami (LW 14)
8 Virginia Tech-- Northeastern has a football team? (LW 8)
9 Louisville-- defense needs work (LW 7)
10 Georgia-- Williams Brice will be rocking (LW 9)
11 Florida-- second half much better than the first (LW 11)
12 Miami-- defense was excellent against Florida State (LW 4)
13 Michigan-- not too impressive in win over Vandy (LW 17)
14 LSU-- trounced te Rajin Cajuns (LW 18)
15 Pittsburgh-- easier than expected win over Virginia (LW 15)
16 Tennessee-- welcome back (LW NR)
17 Clemson-- could have a special season if they can win road games (like this week) (LW 18)
18 West Virginia-- won't play an interesting game for a while (LW 20)
19 Oklahoma-- did everything but lose to UAB (LW 16)
20 Texas A&M-- Citadel no match for Aggies (LW 22)
21 Purdue-- Sycamores hung in there for a while (LW 23)
22 Cal-- can they rebound? (LW 12)
23 Nebraska-- still not totally sold (LW NR)
24 Boise State-- have to beat the Beavers to be legit (LW 24)
25 Arkansas-- don't give up on them yet (LW13)

Teams that dropped out:
21 Utah-- never challenged UCLA
25 Colorado-- not the way Dan Hawkins envisioned his opener

Teams creeping around:
Penn State-- let's see how they do against Notre Dame (I wasn't that impressed in win over Akron)
Texas Tech-- rolled over SMU
UTEP-- big game at home against Texas Tech
UCLA-- good opening win against Utah

Blogpoll Roundtable #2: Surprise

1. What team best met your overall expectations of them in their opener?

The Pitt Panthers. I expected Pitt to be a surpise contender in the Big East this season. They responded with an easier than expected victory over Virginia in the season opener. Certainly, Virginia is not in the same class as West Virginia and Louisville, but a 25 point drubbing of a BCS foe is always a good way to start the season.

2. What team jumped off the map and surprised you the most? (Bonus points to anyone who can make an argument for someone besides Tennessee.)

Kansas State, in a bad way. Even while they were busy finishing 4-7 and 5-6 over the past two seasons, the Wildcats still devoured the cupcakes on the schedule (beating Western Kentucky, Louisiana-Lafeyette, Florida International, and North Texas by an average of 23.75 points). A one point win over Illinois State is probably not how Ron Prince envisioned his opening game as Kansas State coach.

3. What team best moved themselves into a position to surprisingly contend for a national title?

Gotta go with Tennessee. The Vols did all they could to erase any memories of last season's 5-6 record. Cal was never in the game and Erik Ainge looked like last year never happened.

College Football Delayed Reaction

Quick thoughts on the first weekend of action.

1. Several favorites had a rough go of it in their openers over lesser teams. Top 25 squads Oklahoma and Alabama slipped by UAB and Hawaii respectively in close home contests. Michigan State sneaked by a game Idaho team in East Lansing. Kansas State won by a single point over non-Division I Illinois State. Dan Hawkins was not as fortunate as Ron Prince in his first gae at Colorado. The Buffs lost to non-Division I Montana State. Boston College held off Central Michigan after nearly giving up a 21 point 4th quarter lead. Iowa State won over Toledo in triple OT.

2. Tennessee stomped Cal (Lee Corso's preseason national champion) in Knoxville. Can Cal rebound from a terrible beginning and give USC a run in the Pac 10 race? Is Tennessee back, or was Cal simply a paper tiger?

3. Is BYU the Mountain West's best team? Utah was soundly defeated by UCLA and TCU struggled in winning at Baylor. BYU fought tooth and nail with Arizona before losing on a last second field goal. Truth be told, we don't really know how good Arizona is, but they were a trendy Pac 10 sleeper.

4. The middle of the Big East should be strong. Rutgers won at North Carolina and Pittsburgh trounced Virginia at home.

5. Where's the defense at Louisville? The Cardinals dropped 59 on the Wildcats, but gave up 28 (21 without the kickoff return), including two touchdown passes of over 70 yards. Were those plays aberrations, or indicative of a problem in the Louisville secondary.

6. USC seems to have reloaded. After a slow start, the Trojans dropped 50 of the Hogs.

7. Is Duke the worst team in Division I? The mighty Richmond Spiders shut them out.

8. My alma mater can't catch a break (no pun intended). Quarterback Ben Mauk broke his arm against Syracuse. My prediction for the Duke game: single digits in pass attempts for Wake.

Remembering the Florida State Dynasty

While discussing college football recently with one of my friends, we got to reminiscing about Florida State football in our middle and high school years. As ACC fans, we remembered how dominant the 'Noles were when they joined the ACC. Always the curious sort, I decided to see just how dominant those teams were relative to other conference dynasties in college football history. I examined every 'big-time' college football conference since 1970 (an arbitrary cut off point) and looked for similar domination of conference opponents. The big time conferences I considered are the current 6 BCS conferences plus the old Big 8 and Southwest Conferences. The variables I examined were conference record, conference games decided by single digits, and conference wins by more than 30 points (another arbitrary figure). Here's Florida State's resume.

From 1993-2000, a span of 8 seasons, Florida State won our shared all 8 conference championships.
Conference Record: 62-2 .969
Games decided by <10 points: 6 (5-1 record) (9.4%)
Wins of more than 30 points: 36 (56.3%)

That's a pretty impressive run. Even more so than I remembered. About every year and a half, some ACC foe would play Florida State close. Amazingly, a majority of their conference games resulted in wins by more than 30 points.

In my sojourn through recent college football history I found 5 teams with comparable credentials to Florida State. Here they are in alphabetical order.

Alabama
Years: 1971-1981
Accomplishments: In 11 seasons, won or shared 9 conference titles (exceptions were 1976 and 1980).
Conference Record: 71-4 .947
Games decided by <10 points: 12 (9-3 record) (16%)
Wins of more than 30 points: 19 (25.3%)

Care to hazard a guess who the Crimson Tide coach was during this time? The run is a little longer than Florida State's but is broken up by the missed titles in 1976 (when the Tide lost gasp...2 conference games) and 1980. Alabama didn't have as many 30 point wins as Florida State, but that probably has something to do with the era (more grind it out running and less passing in the 1970's).

Michigan
Years: 1971-1978
Accomplishments: In 8 seasons, won or shared 7 conference titles (except 1975).
Conference Record: 57-6-1 .898
Games Decided by <10 points: 17 (11-5-1 record) (26.6%)
Wins of more than 30 points: 23 (35.9%)

Another dynasty, another legendary coach. The only downside to Michigan's run is that they only had one unblemished conference season (8-0 in 1971). They went 7-1 every other year with the exception of 1973 when they finished (7-0-1).

Nebraska
Years: 1991-1997
Accomplishments: In 7 seasons, won or shared 6 conference titles (and were upset in the Big XII Championship Game in 1996).
Conference Record: 49-1-1 .971 (excluding conference title games) 50-2-1 .953 (including conference title games)
Games decided by <10 points: 8 (7-1 record) (15.1%)
Wins of more than 30 points: 25 (47.2%)

If not for the Big XII Championship Game loss to Texas in 1996, this run would be even more impressive as it could have included 4 straight national titles.

Oklahoma
Years: 1972-1980
Accomplishments: In 9 seasons, won or shared 8 conference titles (1972 was the lone exception).
Conference Record: 58-5 .921, if we include the 1978 Orange Bowl with conference foe Nebraska it jumps to 59-5 .922
Games decided by <10 points: 14 (11-3 record) (21.9%)
Wins of more than 30 points: 20 (31.3%)

The Sooners played their fair share of close games in the old Big 8 conference, but also won 2 national championships during the run.

Texas
Years: 1970-1977
Accomplishments: In 8 seasons, won or shared 6 conference titles (1974 and 1976 were the exceptions).
Conference Record: 50-8 .862
Games decided by <10 points: 9 (8-1 record) (15.5%)
Wins of more than 30 points: 14 (24.1%)

The 'Horns had a little hiccup in 1976 finishing 4-4, but if we extend the study a little farther back in time (Texas won the Southwest Conference in both 1968 and 1969) and exchange those years for the last two (1976 and 1977), Texas' numbers improve substantially.

Conference Record: 51-5 .911
Games decided by <10 points: 8 (7-1 record) (14.3%)
Wins of more than 30 points: 19 (33.9%)

It'd be a futile exercise to try and rank these conference dynasties because of the changes in the college game, but I would have to say Florida State's run is not as impressive as it seems. With the exception of Mack Brown's last two North Carolina teams, there were no other real elite teams in the ACC. How would you rank these dynasties?

Lines of the Night 9/2

Quarterback
Eric Ainge, Tennessee
Passing: 11-17 passing, 291 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception
Rushing: 1 attempt, 1 yard, 0 touchdowns

Welcome back to college football Mr. Ainge and Tennessee. After a season both Ainge and Tennessee would love to forget, things seem to be going a little better this year. Ainge nearly equaled last season's touchdown total (5) in his first game and averaged a whopping 17.1 yards per pass in the Vols ambushing of number 9 Cal.

Running Back
Raymell Rice, Rutgers
Rushing: 31 attempts, 201 yards, 3 touchdowns
Receiving: 2 catches, 13 yards, 0 touchdowns

Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe may have had more impressive lines, but the relative unknown, Raymell Rice single-handedly helped the Knights begin their quest for consecutive bowl appearances by gouging the North Carolina defense.

Receiver/Tight End
Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech
Rushing: 0 attempts, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns
Receiving: 7 catches, 111 yards, 1 touchdowns

Perhaps the best receiver in college football was a big part of Georgia Tech's upset bid...in the first half. He was held to one catch for 16 yards in the last 30 minutes.

Opening Weekend

Previews and predictions for the remaining weekend and Monday games.

Record so far: 3-2

Rutgers at North Carolina
The Scarlet Knights seek to build on their first bowl season since 1978 while the Tar Heels hope to rebound from a 5-6 season. Although Rutgers participated in postseason play last year, while North Carolina stayed at home, the Heels may have been the better team. In 9 of their 11 games last season, North Carolina faced a team with a winning record. 5 of those teams had 9 wins or more (Miami, Louisville, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and Boston College). They lost all but one of those games (Boston College). Rutgers on the other hand played only 4 teams with winning records (Arizona State, Louisville, Navy, and West Virginia). Navy was the only team of the four they defeated. These teams seem pretty evenly matched with the conference determination being the deciding factor in the divergent fortunes of these teams. The Heels will take this one thanks to the homefield advantage.
Winner: North Carolina

Stanford at Oregon
Oregon rebounded from a disappointing 5-6 2004 with a 10-win BCS bowl caliber season. Now Stanford looks to emulate the Ducks in Walt Harris' second season. If Stanford had not blown an early season home game against non-Division I UC Davis they would have gone bowling last year. Oregon must replace quarterback Kellen Clemens, but they should be used to that as he missed the last 5 games of the 2005 season. While Oregon was certainly not as dominant in the 5 games Clemens missed, they still finished 4-1. That experience should benefit both Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf in their quest to replace him.
Winner: Oregon

California at Tennessee
The Golden Bears have designs on a Pac 10 title, and while this game won't have any impact on that race, it will give us fans and observers a little insight into their quest to dethrone Southern Cal. While Tennessee is certainly not the class of the SEC, winning in Rocky Top is never an easy task. David Cutcliffe returns to coordinate the offense for the Vols who averaged under 20 points per game last season. Cutcliffe should have an impact in improving the offense, but simple regression (or progression) to the mean should also aid Tennessee in returning to the postseason. Tennessee is good enough to get back to bowl game, but not good enough to knock off a top-10 team even at home.
Winner: California

Utah at UCLA
If Utah wants back into the BCS they have to win this game over a middling Pac 10 program. UCLA did manage to knock off Oklahoma last season, but they were also one of the luckiest teams in the country with an amazing 4-0 record in close games. With the departure of the core of their offense (quarterback Drew Olson and running back Maurice Drew), expect Drew-CLA to struggle to qualify for a bowl game this season. The Utes may not make it back to the BCS (the Mountain West is tough), but they will knock off UCLA.
Winner: Utah

Virginia at Pittsburgh
Wasn't Al Groh, a former NFL coach, supposed to turn Virginia into an ACC power? Dave Wannstedt, another former NFL coach, should take note. Remember the South Park episode 'My Future Self and Me'? Mr. Groh could be Wannstedt's future self depending on the choices he makes. Both coaches suffered through disappointing 5 win seasons in their first year. Groh has rebounded since then posting four consecutive winning season, but never finishing with a better record than 9-5. If the same fate befalls Wannstedt, well the program will be in the same position it was under Walt Harris. Much like the Virginia program is in the same basic position it was in George Welsh's later years. Pittsburgh certainly benefits from an easier conference and has the schedule to conceivably win 10 games. They be 10% of the way there after this game.
Winner: Pittsburgh

Notre Dame at Georgia Tech
The Jackets have had a pretty good defense for the last 6 seasons. Unfortunately, they have been cursed with a subpar offense led by Reggie Ball for the past 3 seasons. The Notre Dame hype machine is in full effect and the Jackets would like nothing more than to derail it in game one. The Jackets defense will keep them in the game as long as Reggie Ball does not make too many mistakes. If he plays adequately, the Jackets will have a chance, and if he plays well they will win.
Winner: Georgia Tech

Southern Cal at Arkansas
After shooting 2 under par and dropping 70 on the Hogs last season, the Trojans seek to reload and win their 3rd (or 2nd) national title in 4 years. Arkansas has endured two consecutive losing seasons, and needs a strong showing to take the heat off head coach Houston Nutt. Thanks to some strong recruting classes, the pieces are in place for a special season in Fayetteville. If this game was later in the year, Arkansas would have a better shot, but in the opener, Southern Cal will begin their journey towards Tempe.
Winner: Southern Cal

BYU at Arizona
The Mountain West has another opportunity to take out a Pac 10 school this weekend. In his thrid year at the helm, Mike Stoops seeks to lead the Wildcats back to a bowl game for the first time since 1998. BYU should contend for the Mountain West title, and a win here would also improve their chances at snagging an at-large BCS berth. Sophomore quarterback Willie Tuitama will be the difference maker in a Wildcats win.
Winner: Arizona

Florida State at Miami
After last season's prime time affair that set offensive football back several decades, these two powers get together and try to score more than two combined offensive touchdowns. The games in Miami, so if history is any indicator it will come down to a missed field goal and more heartbreak for Bobby Bowden. Even with several players suspended for this one, Miami will play hard seeking to erase all memories of their disatrous bowl game drubbing at the hands of LSU. The U takes it in a squaker.
Winner: Miami

Lines of the Night 8/31

As promised, your lines of the night.

Quarterback
Nate Davis, Ball State
Passing: 7-8 passing, 108 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
Rushing: 1 attempt, 7 yards, 0 touchdowns

When you throw three times as many touchdowns as incompletions, you know you've had quite a night. Davis, a freshman, split time with incumbant Joey Lynch, and helped lead Ball State to a 38-20 victory over Eastern Michigan.

Running Back
Marcus Thomas, UTEP
Rushing: 17 attempts, 24 yards, 1 touchdown
Receiving: 4 catches, 17 yards, 0 touchdowns

Definitely not the best rushing line of the night, but one of the more unique. Thomas had a 19 yard run for the Miners along with a 5 yard touchdown run. On his other 15 rushes, he gained as many yards as you and I. But the Miners won, so he shouldn't lose too much sleep.

Receiver/Tight End
Alex Watson, Northern Arizona
Rushing: 1 attempt, 8 yards, 0 touchdowns
Receiving: 11 catches, 206 yards, 2 touchdowns

Yo Holmes. Watson helped the Lumberjacks hang with the Sun Devils for 3 quarters before they finally wilting in the desert. Even if you subtract his 80 yard touchdown catch, he still has a nice line of 10-126-1.

Down In Mississippi and Up to No Good

At last. The long wait is over and the glorious college football season is upon us. I know its been beaten into the ground, but this season is one of the most wide-open college football seasons in recent memory. Hopefully it lives up to its potential. Here at Statistically Speaking, you can count on a stat heavy look at the sport this season. Today, I'll preview some of the more important and intriguing pre-weekend games.

South Carolina at Mississippi State
The Gamecocks roll into Starkville with designs on another upper-division finish in the SEC East. In order to accomplish that task, they need to take care of business against what can best be described as the dregs of the SEC. With that being said, the dregs of the SEC will probably be tougher than mos of South Carolina's non-conference opponents. Mississippi State return 8 starters to a defense that was pretty good at home last season (22.8 points allowed in conference home games versus 30 points allowed in conference road games). Unfortunately, aside from the drubbing they put on Ole Miss in the season finale last year, the offense was terrible everywhere. Expect more of the same in a defensive struggle that the Cocks eke out by about a touchdown.
Winner: South Carolina

Northwestern at Miami (Ohio)
What was to be a glorious homecoming, with Randy Walker leading his upstart Wildcats against his former Redhawks, is now a melancholy memorial for a coach, and a man, who left the game too soon. Northwestern, a deeply flawed team that wins with a gimmick offense and smoke and mirrors, must go on the road to face a legitimate MAC team while breaking in a new starting quarterback. The Wildcats still have super soph tailback Tyrell Sutton and will surely be playing with a ot of emotion. However, while many folks lend creedence to the idea that emotion is undefeated in college football play, I tend to take a more cynical view that 'emotional' teams fall just as often as they prevail. Miami is no pushover, and they'll knock off Northwestern in a minor upset.
Winner: Miami (Ohio)

Toledo at Iowa State
This is an intriguing game for the Cyclones. Toledo has emerged in recent years as a MAC power, and with a difficult Big 12 schedule ahead, Iowa State cannot afford a slip up here. Last year Iowa State opened the season at home against non-Division I Illinois State and won a closely contested battle 32-21. Later, in a non-conference road game at Army the Cyclones were locked in a mortal struggle, but survived 28-21. In between, they routed archrival Iowa at home. So there is precedent for taking some non-conference teams lightly in Iowa State's recent history. Still, with thir version of the triplets (Bret Meyer, Stevie Hicks, and Todd Blythe), Iowa State should have Toledo outmanned.
Winner: Iowa State

UTEP at San Diego State
A recent Conference USA power, and a Mountain West trendy sleeper get together late Thursday night. Carson Palmer's younger brother, Jordan, is quite a quarterback in his own right. He will look to help lead UTEP to the Conference USA title in his senior season. San Diego State has a pretty good quarterback themselves, unfortunately he will be on the sidelines the entire year, and most Aztec fans hope for years to come. Chuck Long seeks to lead the Aztecs back to a bowl game for the first time since 1998. At the very least, this game should be full of offensive fireworks. I'll take San Diego State since they're playing at home.
Winner: San Diego State

Nevada at Fresno State
The Wolfpack helped derail what could have been a great season for Fresno State. After narrowly losing to USC in an epic game, the Bulldogs stumbled at Nevada 38-35 the following week. Fresno was as unlucky as Nevada was fortuitous last season. Fresno was 0-4 in close games while Nevada was 5-0. A little regression and homefield advantage point to a win and an early lead in the WAC race for Fresno.
Winner: Fresno State

Be sure to check back on Friday morning for a new feature, Lines of the Night. Here, I'll give you the passing, rushing, and receiving lines of the night. They may not necessarily be the night's best lines, but rather some of the more unique passing, rushing, and receiving statistics.

Lightly Anticipated, Rarely Duplicated, Ill-fated College Preview

The college football season begins in 5 days, so its high time I put together a little preview. This preview is nowhere near as in depth as Phil Steele, The Sporting News, CNNSI, ESPN, College Football News, etc. al, but I think you will find some nuggets of knowledge that those guys may have left out. What follows is a conference-by-conference preview with the exception of th MAC (too many teams that I know nothing about), the Sun Belt (call me an elitist, but I just don't care that much who loses the New Orleans Bowl to a Conference USA squad), and Independents (because there's just 4 of them). I'll list my division/conference winners, one team guaranteed to be better than expected (Angels and Demons team), one team guaranteed to be worse than expected (Da Vinci Code team), and one interesting stat for each conference.

ACC

Coastal Winner: Miami
The Canes crushing loss to LSU in the Peach Bowl was an aberration. Before that game Miami had given up more than 20 points only once all season (in a triple OT game against Clemson). They get their toughest conference games (Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Boston College) at home. The only concern I have is the relative inexperience of the offensive line.

Atlantic Winner: Florida State
The Noles do have to travel to Miami and perennial thorn in the side NC State, but they get their two main division rivals (Clemson and Boston College) in Tallahassee. Quarterback Drew Weatherford was erratic at times last season, but should improve in his second year as the starter.

Winner: Miami
If Miami wins the conference, it probably means they beat the Noles twice. While this may be tough to do, it actually happened just three seasons ago.

Angels and Demons Team: Boston College
While no one is predicting a serious downturn for BC, most believe Clesmson and possibly even Maryland will usurp their position of Ed McMahon to Florida State's Johnny Carson in the Atlantic Division. It won't happen. BC gets both the aforementioned teams at home in Chestnut, and while they didn't get any favors from the scheduling gods (drawing Virginia Tech and Miami from the Coastal Division), three conference losses will have them sitting in second place all over again.

Da Vinci Code Team: Clemson
Its not that I think Clemson will be bad, I'm just not buying the hype of the Tigers possibly winning the Atlantic Division. Conference road games at Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, and always tough Wake Forest, plus no real easy home dates (North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Maryland, and NC State) add up to at least 4 conference losses in my book.

Important Stat: Wake Forest has gone an amazing 4-8 in close games (8 points or less) the past two seasons. With a little bit of luck the Deacons could be bowling over the holidays for the first time in 4 years.

Big East

Winner: Louisville
The Ville has only three conference road games with the only real challenge coming at Pitt. They return quarterback Brian Brohm and the other Bush (running back Michael) to one of the nation's best offenses. The do lose pass rush specialist Elvis Dumervil on th defensive line, but actually return their entire secondary and all but one member of the linebacking corps.

Angels and Demons Team: Connecticut
I definitely think Pitt has a chance to win the conference, but a multitude of other analysts also agree. So I'll take a team further down the standings that many are sleeping on...the UConn Huskies. The Huskies have an exciting player in quarterback DJ Hernandez. He played significantly in only two games as a true freshman (against Cincinnati and Louisville), but managed 5 touchdown passes and just 1 interception in those games. He is also a good runner who can make plays with his feet. In addition to this, the Huskies had 7 Pythagorean wins (as opposed to 5 actual wins) last season, so if things break their way they could be headed back to a bowl game.

Da Vinci Code Team: West Virginia
Forget about the team that squeaked by Georgia after nearly blowing a big lead in the Sugar Bowl and remember the team that got pasted by 17 at home against Virginia Tech. West Virginia was good last year, but not 11-1 good. With road tests at Louisville and Pitt the Mountaineers will not repeat as Big East champs.

Important Stat: Luck was certainly not evenly distributed in the Big East last season. West Virginia and Cincinnati went a combined 7-0 in close games, while Pitt, South Florida, and Syracuse went a combined 0-7. Look for West Virginia and Cincinnati to regress and fall in the standings. Pitt, South Florida, and Syracuse should have some better luck and impove their records this season.

Big 10

Winner: Iowa
A 7-5 year was probably disappointing for most Hawkeyes fans, but lets examine the past two seasons. In 2004, Iowa went 10-2. However, their Pythagorean record was only 8.2-3.8. They were an amazing 5-0 in close games and were +13 in turnover differential. In 2005, they went 7-5, but actually had a better Pythagorean record than the season before (8.68-3.32). However, they were now 0-3 in close games and -1 in turnover differential. This season, the Hawkeyes get Ohio State at home and of their road games, only against Michigan should they be an underdog. They also return their entire backfield and 3/5 of the offensive line. On the other side of the ball, they have all their defensive linemen coming back. This season is tailor-made for Iowa to make some real noise.

Angels and Demons Team: Michigan State
There's not a more appropos moniker for a team like Michigan State. The epitome of helter-skelter. In 2004 they drubbed ranked teams Minnesota and Wisconsin while falling to Rutgers and Hawaii. In 2005, they upset Notre Dame early on, and then proceeded to lose by 35 to Northwestern. I think they put it all together this season. By that I mean have a solid, if unspectacular bowl team (say 8-5 or 9-4).

Da Vinci Code Team: Ohio State
No way they live up to expectations, especially with that schedule. At Texas in non-conference play, coupled with conference road games against Iowa and always dangerous Michigan State, plus home dates against Michigan and Penn State, equals at least 2 regular season losses. And lest we forget, two starters return on defense.

Important Stat: Over the last two seasons, Northwestern was 10-3 in close games. They gave up over 33 points per game last season. Their quarterback, Brett Basanez, graduated. Losing Randy Walker is a terrible tragedy, but this team would be destined to decline if Bear Bryant was coaching them.

Big 12

North Winner: Colorado
The Buffs avoid the South's top team (Texas) and get one of the better teams (Texas Tech) at home. In their own division, they get to host one of their biggest threats (Iowa State), but have to hit the road to face the other (Nebraska). With Dan Hawkins at the helm, the Buffs will once again be fodder for the South champion in December.

South Winner: Texas
I wasn't really buying Oklahoma before Rhett Bomar was given the boot primarily because they actually outperformed their Pythagorean record (7.08-4.92) and had a solid record (4-2) in close games. Now I'm definitely all in with the Longhorns for the South title.

Winner: Texas
It won't be a 70-3 throttling like last season, but the Horns should handle the Buffs in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Angels and Demons Team: Texas A & M
The Aggies could pass Texas Tech in the standings (they get the Red Raiders at home). Plus they have their entire defensive secondary returning (they should improve on the 31 points per game they gave last season) and quarterback Stephen McGee looked like the real deal in the season finale.

Da Vinci Code Team: Missouri
Phil Steele has them third in the North?! No way. They lose their best player in quarterback Brad Smith and were actually better team in 2004. Their Pythagorean record in 2004 was 6.62-4.38. In 2005 it was 6.38-5.62. The prime culprit in their improvement was their record in close games. They improved from 2-2 to 3-1. If they go 3-1 in 2004, they finis 6-5 instead of 5-6 and qualify for a bowl. If they go 2-2 in 2005, they finish 5-6 and South Carolina fans don't have visions of Brad Smith running wild all offseason.

Important Stat: Defense will determine if Texas Tech and Nebraska are as good or better than last season. For all the talk about how the west coast offense is clicking in Nebraska, the Huskers actually scored fewer points per game in 2005 than they did in 2004. Their improvement was tied to their defense allowing 6 points per game fewer. Similarly, Texas Tech did improve their scoring by about 3 points per game, but more importantly their defense held opponents to about 8 points per game fewer in 2005 versus 2004.

Important Stat II: Consecutive 7-5 seasons may fool you into believing that Iowa State did not improve in 2005. But they did. In 2004 the Cyclones finished 7-5. They were outscored by 13 points on the year resulting in a Pythagorean record of only 5.63-6.37. They were a very solid 5-3 in close games. In 2005 they again finished 7-5. They outscored their oponents by 109 points resulting in a Pythagorean record of 8.58-3.42. They were a terrible 1-4 in close games. The only thing that will prevent them from winning the North this season is their schedule. They drew both Oklahoma at Texas for road dates against the South, as well as a home date agaunst Texas Tech. Within their own half, they must travel to Colorado to face the Buffs. Quarterback Bret Meyer, running back Stevie Hicks, and receiver Todd Blythe form a solid core, but the Cyclones have their work cut out for them if they want to finally win the North.

Conference USA

West Division Winner: Tulsa
The western division is set to Tulsa time. Last season's Conference USA champs return 9 starters on defense and 7 on offense including quarterback Paul Smith. In conference play, they get division rival UTEP at home as well as East Division power Southern Miss. The Golden Hurrican were an amazing +19 in turnover margin last season so expect some regression, but not enough to derail another Conference USA title.

East Division Winner: Southern Miss
The Eagles will be breaking in a new quarterback after the departure of Dustin Almond, but return every other starter on offense save right tackle. The Golden Eagles also had some bad luck last season, finishing 1-3 in close games. Their schedule is tough (especially non-conference with dates at Florida and Virginia Tech as well as a home game against NC State), but they will represent the East in the second Conference USA Championship Game.

Winner: Tulsa
The Golden Hurricane will take care of the Golden Eagles for the second time on the season in the title game.

Angels and Demons Team: Rice
The Owls were horrible last season as other teams feasted on them by an average margin of almost 18 points per game. New head coach Todd Graham has experience turning teams around with West Virginia and Tulsa. In additon, the Owls had a -17 turnover margin last season. As long as they have warm bodies on the field they should improve upon that number. They won't make it to a bowl game, but they should triple and possibly quadruple last season's win total.

Da Vinci Code Team: Central Florida
George O'Leary deserves tremendous credit for taking the Golden Knights from a winless season in 2004 to an 8-5 record in 2005. However, the Knights allowed just as many points as they scored last season and finished a very good 4-1 in close games. Simple regression will prevent Central Florida from winning the East again.

Important Stat: UAB was 1-5 in close games last season. Without career passing leader DarrellHackney, expect the Blazers to impove on last season's record.

Mountain West

Winner: Utah
The Utes came on strong last season by winning four of their last five games. Another season under Kyle Whittingham and the good fortune of getting the other two biggest contenders (TCU and BYU) at home should mean a second Mountain West title in 3 years.

Angels and Demons Team: Wyoming
A lot of folks have the Pokes pegged for last in the Mountain West. I think they could be a surprise mid-level conference team that contends for a bowl. Last season they had terrible luck with fumbles. They didn't fumble extremely often, but when they did they couldn't the ball back. They lost 13 of 15 fumbles. The NCAA average is about 50%. On defense, they recovered only 6 of 27 forced fumbles. A few fortuitous bounces and Wyoming is a 7-5 team this year.

Da Vinci Code Team: TCU
The Horned Frogs are a good team no doubt, but their fans should not have visions of a BCS invite. They were +11 in turnover margin last season, and an amazing 5-0 in close games. Those numbers will come down this season and TCU's record will follow suit.

Important Stat: In 22 seasons at Air Force, Fisher DeBerry has had 4 losing seasons. Half of them have come in 2004 and 2005.

Pac 10

Winner: Southern Cal
The class of the Pac 10 until further notice. If their defense improves over last season, they could win the national championship.

Angels and Demons Team: Oregon State
This was a toss-up between the Beavers and the Cougars from Washington State. In the end, I went with the team that returns 9 starters on offense along with 7 on defense and had a terrible -14 turnover margin last season over the team that could not win a close game in 2005 (1-5).

Da Vinci Code Team: Arizona State
We've been hearing about how the Sun Devils are supposed to break out any year now. Until they play some defense, that won't happen. With only 4 starters returning on that side of the ball, don't expect much improvement this season. The Sun Devils have found the oasis in close games going 6-2 in close games the past two seasons. Any regression and the team could be out of a bowl game. That's the story, morning glory.

Important Stat: UCLA finished 6-2 in conference play last year. They were outscored in those games by 35 points. Expect some serious reversals in luck.

SEC

East Winner: Florida
I'm definitely unsure about this pick. Urban Meyer's team usually dramatically improve offensively in his second season. However, Florida's schedule is unbelievably difficult. Aside from the 5 other teams from the East, they play at Auburn and host Alabama and LSU from the West. However, Georgia has Joe Tereshinski (of Cocktail Party fame or infamy as the case may be), Tennessee will still be inconsistent on offense, and South Carolina used a ot of smoke and mirrors last season. So I have to give it to the Gators by default.

West Winner: Auburn
They were probably the SEC's best team last season, and with quarterback Brandon Cox and running back Kenny Irons returning to anchor a powerful offense, they should be the cream of the crop once again.

Winner: Auburn
If they can avoid the slip ups to inferior teams from last season (at home to Georgia Tech and in the bowl game against Wisconsin) the Tigers could win the National Championship.

Angels and Demons Team: Arkansas
They have gotten a lot of love from Phil Steele and I have to agree with him. The Hogs are 1-7 in close games the ast two seasons. That luck has to change. Plus they have a stud runner in Darren McFadden and whoever turns out to be the starting quarterback (freshman Mitch Mustain or sophomore casey Dick) will have a solid season. If Auburn doesn't win the West, Arkansas will.

Da Vinci Code Team: LSU
Don't read too much into the shellacking they laid on Miami. The Tigers were 5-1 in close games in Les Miles' first season. Their four conference road games are against Florida, Auburn, Arkansas, and Tennessee. They will finish no better than third in the West.

Important Stat: Under Spurrier, the Cock N Fire offense averaged roughly a point per game more than the conservative offense run by Lou Holtz. Will Blake Mitchell and Sydney Rice become the next great passing tandem under Spurrier?

WAC

Winner: Boise State
Boise gets to host their biggest nemesis, Fresno State this season. Quarterback Jared Zabransky is a senior this season. As long as he doesn't channel Chris Rix as he did against Georgia last season, the Broncos should win the WAC. I can't predict an undefeated season thanks to a road game against Utah and a home date with improving Oregon State, but a WAC title should be in the bag.

Angels and Demons Team: Idaho
To the extreme they rock the dome like a vandal. With a home schedule that includes weaker WAC teams like San Jose State and New Mexico State, along with 9 returning starters o offense and 7 on defense, the Vandals should improve on last seasons 3 wins. A 1-3 record in close games also portends some improvement in the luck department. In addition to this, Dennis Erickson, for all his failures in the pro game, is a helluva college coach.

Da Vinci Code Team: Nevada
The Wolfpack finished last season with a 9-3 record, but only had a Pythagorean record of 6.48-5.52. They went 5-0 in close games last season. Boise and Fresno are the class of the WAC, and if the Wolfpack is not careful, they could be passed by both Hawaii and either Idaho or Louisiana Tech.

Important Stat: Hal Mumme's New Mexico State Aggies were buried at the bottom of Division I last season. A -23 turnover differential is partly to blame, so a little improvement in that area could lead to an extra win or two.

Blog Poll Roundtable I

1. What's the biggest ripoff in this preseason poll? Either pick a team that's offensively over or underrated, or you can rag on a particular voter's bad pick (hey, we're all adults here, we can handle it).

On the whole, I like the poll, with the exception of the top two spots. So we're supposed to believe a team returning 2 starters on defense that must travel to Texas, Iowa, and Michigan State along with hosting Penn State and Michigan is the nation's top team? Yeah the offense should be bang up this season, but they're coached by Jim Tressel, so you know he's gonna play it close to the vest a time or two against the better teams on the schedule. I can see top 5, but #1 overall? And the 'Horns at #2? With the loss of Vince Young, who was the difference maker in games against Ohio State, USC, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, the Horns are a definite top 10 team as they have been for most of Mack Brown's tenure, but not the 2nd best team in the country. Without a player of Young's caliber, Texas could not have completed the stirring second half comeback over Oklahoma State last season.

2. What shold a preseason poll measure? Specifically, should it be a predictor of end-of-season standing (meaning that a team's schedule should be taken into account when determining a ranking), or should it merely be a barometer of talent/hype/expectations?

The preseason poll has to take schedule into account at least to some extent. If you believe two conference rivals are pretty even, the site of the game can be the deciding factor in ranking one team over another. However, schedule should not have a great influence over preseason rankings. For example, Florida will probably finish the season with more losses than Boise State thanks to a schedule that includes Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida State, but you'd be hard pressed to convince me Boise would beat them on a neutral field.

3. What is your biggest stretch in your preseason ballot? That is to say, which team has the best chance of making you look like an idiot for overrating them?

Iowa at #3 is definitely my biggest stretch. Being a numbers guy, I love their great point differential last season. With their poor showing in close games (0-3), a little regression (or progression) to the mean in the luck department along with the scheduling benefit of hosting Ohio State, I had to make them a top 5 team. However, I can foresee them losing to rival Iowa State, Ohio State, Michigan, and possibly one other road slip to finsih with a solid, but hardly top 5 8-4 record.

4. What do you see as the biggest flaw in the polling system (both wire service and blogpolling)? Is polling an integral part of the great game of college football, or is it an outdated system that needs to be replaced? If you say the latter, enlighten us with your new plan.

As with any voting system, the biggest problem is an uneducated electorate. Of course, I believe the blog poll is much more informed than the AP writers or coaches, I still don't think voters understand just how much influence random chance has over individual games. Because Team A beats Team B on a last second field goal, doesn't necessarily mean Team A is the superior squad. There is a lot of 'noise' that goes in to determining who wins and loses a football game. I think its important to look at other factors besides the final score, such as yardage, penalties, location, previous schedule, turnover differential, etc. to determine if the game was an accurate portrayal of both teams. I realize each of these aspects is highly subjective, but I think sometimes we put too much stock in the end result (final score) without considering the means with which that end was acheived.

5. You're Scott Bakula, and you have the opportunity to "Quantum Leap" back in time and change any single moment in your team's history. It can be a play on the field, a hiring decision, or your school's founders deciding to build the campus in Northern Indiana, of all godforsaken places. What do you do?

Well, being a Wake Forest fan, it would take much more than one single event to change the fortunes of our program (although I think we are in good hands under Jim Grobe), but the one thing I would change would be not firing Douglas 'Peahead' Walker after the 1950 season. I know it was a completely different era, but under Walker (1937-1950) our cumulative winning percentage was .597 (77-51-6). Maybe if he had stuck around in the second half of the century we would have a little better tradition.

Preseason Blog Poll

It's that time of year again. Children are going back to school, the days are slowly getting shorter, and the NFL is taunting its fans with preseason football. Its also time for predictions. Around this time of year, everyone is an expert, tossing around bold predictions and the like. I am no different, except that my predictions are here for all to read. That being said, here is my preseason Blog Poll Ballot. First a few things:
1) I ranked teams on how good I think they are, not what kind of record they will finish with
2) I really have no idea what I'm doing-- aside from believing USC will reload, Arkansas and Pitt will surprise, West Virginia and Notre Dame will disappoint, I really am not sure what to expect this season
3) Who is the 3rd best team in the Pac 10? In my opinion, USC and Cal are easly 1 and 2, but I have no idea what to expect from everyone else. Without further adieu, here's the ballot.

1. Southern Cal-- picking up where they left off
2. Auburn-- Kenny Irons, sleeper Heisman candidate?
3. Iowa-- solid point differential belied their mediocre record
4. Miami-- bowl loss a fluke
5. Texas-- I think they'll miss that Vince Young fellow
6. Ohio State-- offense will be good, but where's the D?
7. Louisville-- the other Bush will shine this year
8. Virginia Tech-- got a little feeling this could be similar to 2001-2003 when VT started out highly ranked and sank like a stone once the schedule toughened up
9. Georgia-- always seem to be in the top 10
10. Notre Dame-- be very wary of the Jackets on Labor Day weekend
11. Florida-- killer schedule
12. Cal-- big test opening up in Knoxville
13. Arkansas-- sleeper
14. Florida State-- bold prediction: won't lose 5 games this season
15. Pitt-- sleeper #2
16. Oklahoma-- not buying them as a legitimate national threat
17. Michigan-- also won't lose 5 games again
18. LSU-- Miles away from where they were under Saban
19. Clemson-- will they win 10 games? my man Frank says yes, I disagree
20. West Virginia-- sell, sell, sell
21. Utah-- best of the mids
22. Texas A&M-- time for a rebound
23. Purdue-- Joe Tiller won't go for consecutive losing seasons
24. Boise State-- fun to watch
25. Colorado-- will win the Big 12 North (again)

The Worst BCS Bowl Teams

With the addition of an extra BCS game this season, the chance that an undeserving school sneaks into the BCS has just increased by roughly 25%. With that in mind, I decided to take a look back to see which teams were the worst to ever play in a BCS bowl game. In my opinion, there are four teams that were truly undeserving of their BCS invitation. The countdown...

#4
Purdue 2000
Record: 8-3
Pt Differential: +125
Pythagorean Record: 8.09-2.91
Record Vs Teams with Winning Records: 4-1
Record in Close (8 pts or less) Games: 3-2
Road Record: 2-3
opponent's Record: 65-64 .504

Purdue won the Big 10 in 2000 with a 6-2 conference record. They managed to defeat their closest competitors in the standings (Michigan, Northwestern, and Ohio State), but slipped at Penn State (5-7) in the first year of their recent slide and Michigan State (5-6). Besides their loss to Notre Dame (9-3), their non-conference slate was softer than Bonecrusher's midsection with wins against hapless MAC squads Central Michigan (2-9) and Kent State (1-10).

#3
Syracuse 1998
Record: 8-3
Pt Differential: +199
Pythagorean Record: 8.67-2.33
Record Vs Teams with Winning Records: 3-3
Record in Close (8 pts or less) Games: 1-2
Road Record: 2-2
opponent's Record: 71-58 .550

Donovan McNabb's senior season at Syracuse was very weird. The team opened up with a one point defeat to eventual national champion Tennessee in the Carrier Dome. They followed that up with a win over Michigan (10-3) in Ann Arbor. After a breather against Rutgers (5-6) the Orange got run out of Raleigh by a mediocre Wolfpack team (7-5) by 21 points. They followed that up with three wins over teams with 2, 4, and 2 wins respectively. Then they lost a close game to a solid West Virginia squad (8-4). After that something clicked as the Orange sandwiched a shellacking of Temple (2-9) around a hard fought victory over Virginia Tech (9-3) and a 53 point beat down of Miami (9-3). However, Syracuse earns a place on this list because the Big East as a whole was down in 1998 with no dominant teams emerging, and because they beat three teams with only two wins (Temple, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh).

#2
Pittsburgh 2004
Record: 8-3
Pt Differential: +65
Pythagorean Record: 6.95-4.05
Record Vs Teams with Winning Records: 2-1
Record in Close (8 pts or less) Games: 5-2
Road Record: 3-2
opponent's Record: 56-59 .487

Everybody remembers Walt Harris' final Pittsburgh team. They won the extremely watered down Big East and were the sacrifice at the altar of the mid majors against Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. Truly, in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. The Panthers played three teams with winning records, losing to Connecticut (8-4) and knocking off their biggest Big East challengers Boston College (9-3) and West Virginia (8-4). In non-conference action they lost to the worst Nebraska team in recent memory (5-6) and barely squeaked by Division IAA Furman by 3 points.

#1
Stanford 1999
Record: 8-3
Pt Differential: +62
Pythagorean Record: 6.56-4.44
Record Vs Teams with Winning Records: 1-2
Record in Close (8 pts or less) Games: 3-2
Road Record: 3-2
opponent's Record: 60-70 .462

Narrowly edging out the Pitt Panthers for the top spot. Tyrone Willingham's 1999 Stanford Cardinal played three teams with winning records in a very down year for the Pac 10. They beat Oregon State (7-5) and lost to Washington (7-5) in conference. The scheduling gods allowed them to avoid the Pac 10's best team Oregon (9-3). In non-conference action, a solid but not great Texas team (9-5) stomped them by 52 points. The game that seals Stanford's place in this pantheon is their non-conference loss at home to San Jose State (3-7) a WAC school whose other wins that season were over Tulsa (2-9) and St. Mary's (non-Division IA).

That's my take. What's yours?

Consistent Part Tres

After examining consistency in the Pac 10 and Big 12, it's high time we delve into the SEC. In the past 10 seasons (1996-2005) the SEC has produced of the 12 national champions. Ironically, two of the champions (Florida in 1996 and LSU in 2003) finished the season with a loss, while Auburn finished undefeated in 2004, yet was not able to play for the national championship. Here are the 12 teams ranked by standard deviation of seasonal winning percentage from most consistent to least consistent.

Vanderbilt .1141
Florida .1147
Georgia .1306
Tennessee .1470
Arkansas .1483
Mississippi .1511
Kentucky .1605
Auburn .1934
Alabama .2089
LSU .2111
Mississippi State .2285
South Carolina .2372

The 'Dores are the most consistent team in the SEC from the past decade never winning more than 5 games nor fewer than 2. The top 4 consistent teams in the SEC are from the East. Vanderbilt consistently finishes at the bottom and the Big 3 of Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee consistently finish st the top. However, the most inconsistent team in the SEC also comes from the Eastern Division. In the past decade South Carolina has truly been everywhere. In 1999, they won no games and just two seasons later they went 9-3.

Bowl Games and the Spread

Look at my greasy hair.

As promised last week for all you degenerates, here are the results for how certain team characteristics predict bowl winners against the spread. If you don't feel like reading the last post, here's a quick refresher. The sample size is every bowl game from the past 6 seasons (2000-2005). I determined how often the team with the better overall record, point differential, conference record, offense (rated by points scored) and defense (rated by points allowed) won the bowl game against the spread. In the interest of staving off premature blindness and causing confusion, I will eschew year by year results and just hit you with the cumulative data.

Better Record: 62-62-3 .500
Better Point Differential: 69-87-3 .443
Better Conference Record: 47-63-3 .429
Better Offense: 64-93-3 .409
Better Defense: 75-81-3 .481

Nothing. Zilch. Nada. Neither characteristic predicts bowl spread coverers (for lack of a better term) with any accuracy. Looks like Vegas wins again. But wait. When you dig a little deeper and separate each category into underdogs and favorites something does show up.

Better Record
Dog: 28-40 .412
Favorite: 34-22-3 .602

Better Point Differential
Dog: 21-64 .247
Favorite: 48-23-3 .669

Better Conference Record
Dog: 24-36 .400
Favorite: 23-27-3 .462

Better Offense
Dog: 24-62 .279
Favorite: 40-31-3 .561

Better Defense
Dog: 30-55 .353
Favorite: 45-26-3 .628

For the most part, in every category except better conference record, underdogs perform very poorly, but favorites perform quite well. Why is this so? I can't really come up with any ideas off the cuff, but the phenomenon does seem to exist. So if hypothetically, the Sun Bowl matches up two teams, and the team with the better record (or point differential, or offense, or defense) is also the favorite, they might be a good play. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but if you do use this knowledge to win a substantial, any donations will be accepted.

Bowl Winners Addendum

I am just curious: for the bowls with teams with the same record, what is the winning % of that sub-category based on Better Point Differential, Better Offense, and Better Defense?
-ArmchairGM user

Ask and you shall receive.

When bowl teams have the same record the winning percentages for each category are as follows:

Better Point Differential: 14-20 .412
Better Conference Record: 8-10 .444
Better Offense: 14-20 .412
Better Defense: 21-13 .618

When teams have the same overall record, better defense remains a good predictor of bowl winners (actually increasing from .581 when overall record is discounted). However, the other three measures all decline in their ability to pick winners, especially point differential and better offense. I wouldn't draw any dramatic conclusions from this because the sample size is quite small. What do you think?

Predicting the Winners of College Bowl Games

Ever notice how bowl games seem to be such crap shoots? Take for example the case of the Cal Golden Bears circa 2004. They roll through the regular season with a 10-1 record losing only to eventual national champion USC by 6 points in Los Angeles. Besides USC, the only other close game they played was against Oregon, whom they beat by a single point. They throttled everyone else. Then in the Holiday Bowl against Texas Tech, a mediocre 7-4 team who lost to New Mexico, they get beat by 14 in a game that was not that close. Or how about 2005, when a 9-2 Auburn team whose only setback since Labor Day was a 3 point loss at Death Valley against LSU. In the Capital One Bowl against a 9-3 Wisconsin team that lose to Iowa (7-5) and Northwestern (7-5) and needed a miracle blocked punt to beat Minnesota (7-5) they manage only 10 points and lose 24-10. Is this a common refrain or do bowl games follow some sort of pattern in their results. To find out I examined every college bowl game from the 2000-2001 bowl season to the recently completed 2005-2006 bowl season. I included 5 categories in the study. I looked at how often the team with the better overall record, better point differential, better conference record, better offense (points per game), and better defense (points allowed per game) pre bowl won the game. Here are the results for each season.

2000-01
Better Record: 15-6 (4 bowls matched teams with the same record) .714
Better Point Differential: 14-11 .560
Better Conference Record: 10-6 (9 with same record or Independent teams) .625
Better Offense: 15-10 .600
Better Defense: 13-12 .520

2001-02
Better Record: 13-12 .520
Better Point Differential: 16-9 .640
Better Conference Record: 9-11 (5 with same record or Independent teams) .450
Better Offense: 13-12 .520
Better Defense: 15-10 .600

2002-03
Better Record: 14-11 (3 bowls matched teams with the same record) .560
Better Point Differential: 15-13 .536
Better Conference Record: 9-10 (9 with same record or Independent teams) .474
Better Offense: 13-15 .464
Better Defense: 15-12 (1 bowl matched teams with the same average point allowed) .556

2003-04
Better Record: 14-8 (6 bowls matched teams with the same record) .636
Better Point Differential: 17-11 .607
Better Conference Record: 9-11 (8 with same record or Independent teams) .450
Better Offense: 13-15 .464
Better Defense: 18-10 .643

2004-05
Better Record: 9-7 (12 bowls matched teams with the same record) .563
Better Point Differential: 16-12 .571
Better Conference Record: 10-9 (9 with same record or Independent teams) .526
Better Offense: 14-14 .500
Better Defense: 16-12 .571

2005-06
Better Record: 11-7 (9 bowls matched teams with the same record) .611
Better Point Differential: 14-12 (1 bowl matched teams with same point differential) .538
Better Conference Record: 6-13 (8 with same record or Independent teams) .316
Better Offense: 13-14 .481
Better Defense: 16-11 .593

Total:
Better Record: 76-51 (34 bowls matched teams with the same record) .598
Better Point Differential: 92-68 (1 bowl matched teams with same point differential) .575
Better Conference Record: 53-60 (48 with same record or Independent teams) .469
Better Offense: 81-80 .503
Better Defense: 93-67 (1 bowl matched teams with the same average point allowed) .581

A few things. Its amazing how consistent most of these measures are. With the exception of 2000-01, the better offense has alternated winning slightly more than half and slightly less than half the time. The better record has been either the best predictor or second best predictor every year except for one (2001-02). It appears the bowl upsets mentioned above are relatively rare. The team with the superior record wins almost 60% of the time. These upsets simply stick out in our minds more so than the games that play out like we expect. If you're predicting bowl games, and the teams have the same record, err on the side of the better defense or the team with the better point differential. If you go with the better offense, you might as well flip a coin. If you go by better conference record, then your the guy book makers love. Speaking of which, look for a post next week analyzing the same thing, but this time looking at how bowl games play out against the spread.

Revisiting 2001: A Seasonal Odyssey

Journey with me to the 2001 college football season. Oh how things were different just 5 short years ago. USC was beginning a new era under NFL failure Pete Carroll, Mack Brown still couldn't beat Oklahoma, Florida State had yet to finish outside the top 10 in 2 decades. Heading into Thanksgiving weekend, it looked as if the Rose Bowl's first turn to host the BCS title game would be a historical rematch of Miami versus Nebraska. Then all hell broke loose. Colorado thumped Nebraska by 26 points on the Friday after Thanksgiving. That opened the door for several one-loss teams to step up and assume the #2 ranking in the BCS. The very next day Oklahoma (10-1) was upset by archrival Oklahoma State (4-7). That loss coupled with their earlier loss to Nebraska enabled Texas put Texas into the Big 12 Championship Game. The next weekend, two more one-loss teams would play what amounted to an elimination game in the swamp. Florida (9-1) would host Tennessee (9-1) in an early season game that was postponed thanks to September 11th. Tennessee upset the Gators and looked to be in control of their own destiny heading into the SEC Championship game the next week against LSU. On the same day, Oregon (10-1) quietly concluded a superb regular season by squeaking by archrival Oregon State (5-6). On Championship Saturday, two more one-loss teams went down. Texas was upset by a Colorado team they had throttled by 34 points 6 weeks earlier in the Big 12 Championship Game. Tennessee was also upset in their title game by LSU. This left the BCS standings in absolute chaos. When the dust cleared, a team that didn't even win its half of the conference, would face Miami in the grand-daddy of them all for the national championship. Nebraska edged Colorado by five hundredths of a point (7.23 to 7.28) for second place. Oregon was a distant fourth at 8.67. So who deserved to play Miami for the national title? Determining who deserved to play Miami is not easy. Historically teams that play for the national title cannot have more than 1 loss. That limits the possibilities. Instead I will try to determine which team was the second best in the nation in 2001, not necessarily who deserved to play Miami. In my opinion, there were 12 candidates, some of them much more legitimate than others. We'll start with the best of the non-BCS teams, then examine the BCS pretenders, and finally examine the legitimate BCS contenders. Under each team 8 pre-bowl game statistics are listed: their record (conference record in parentheses), number of points scored and allowed, point differential, Pythagorean record, record in close games (those decided by 8 points or less), record against winning teams, road record, and finally opponent's cumulative winning percentage. This is all followed by a brief synopsis of their season summing up their case to play Miami.

Non-BCS

BYU
Record: 12-1 (7-0)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 608 396
Point Differential: +212
Pythagorean: 9.54-3.46
Close Games: 5-0
Winning Records: 3-1
Road Games: 6-1
Opp Win%: .399 (59-89)

I left them out of the discussion earlier, but the Mountain West champion Cougars were actually undefeated heading into their season finale against at Hawaii on December 8th. Prior to the showdown with Hawaii (who finished 9-3), some BYU administrators had publicly contemplated suing the BCS if an undefeated Cougar squad were left out. After the game, such talk was moot. BYU scored 45 points which is good. However, they allowed 72 which isn't so good. In that game, Hawaii quarterback Nick Rolovich threw more touchdown passes (8) than Heisman winning quarterback Eric Crouch (7) had thrown all season. It was fitting BYU lost their final contest by such a large margin against the best team they would play in the regular season. They played a ridiculously easy schedule, and struggled to put away some bad teams. They beat UNLV (4-7) by 4, New Mexico (6-5) by 4, Wyoming (2-9) by 7, and Mississippi State (3-8) by 3. Their best win was over Utah (8-4). A BCS appearance by BYU would have likely been both a blowout and most undeserved.

Fresno State
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 525 300
Point Differential: +225
Pythagorean: 10.27-2.73
Close Games: 2-2
Winning Record: 4-2
Road Games: 6-1
Opp Win %: (.489) 74-78

The Bulldogs weren't really a contender for the #2 spot in the BCS rankings, but I left them on here for 2 reasons. Foremost, they beat a team we'll discuss later, Colorado, in the Jim Thorpe Classic during the season's first weekend. Secondly, they were probably the best non-BCS team in 2001. Although the Bulldogs did defeat 3 BCS teams in 2001, 2 of those teams were having down years (Oregon State finished 5-6 and Wisconsin finished 5-7). Still give Pat Hill credit for his scheduling cajones. Unfortunately, 2 late October losses to Boise State and Hawaii prevented Fresno from even winning the WAC. Still, its fun to play the what-if game. What if Fresno managed to knock off those 2 teams and stood as the only other undefeated team besides Miami when the regular season ended? Would there victory over the Buffaloes allow them to jump both Nebraska and Colorado or would their weak schedule do them in?

BCS Pretenders

Maryland
Record: 10-1 (7-1)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 390 210
Point Differential: +180
Pythagorean: 8.94-2.06
Close Games: 3-0
Winning Record: 6-1
Road Games: 3-1
Opp Win %: .473 (61-68)

Under rookie head Ralph Friedgen, the Terraphins doubled their win total and won the ACC outright. Their success was the product of a down ACC (every other team had at least 4 total losses), some good luck in close games (3-0), and the victories by North Carolina and NC State over perennial league champion Florida State. The Terps were handled by 21 in Tallahassee, but did not stumble again in ACC play. The Seminoles on the other hand lost to both the Heels (in a stunning 41-9 rout) and the Pack. Maryland was a good team in 2001, but nowhere near elite status.

Illinois
Record: 10-1 (7-1)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 356 238
Point Differential: +118
Pythagorean: 7.94-3.06
Close Games: 4-0
Winning Record: 3-1
Road Games: 4-1
Opp Win %: .488 (62-65)

Aside from the fact that their head coach was not in his first season, the Illini owe much of their success to the same factors as Maryland. A down Big 10 (no other team had fewer than 4 losses), some good luck in close games (4-0), and some upsets over the league's best team helped the Illini capture the Big 10 crown. After being handled by the Michigan Wolverines in late September 45-20, the Illini looked to be playing for second place. However, the Wolverines lost to Michigan State by 2 in early November, and followed that up with a loss to Ohio State at the end of the month by 6. Illinois kept winning and took the Big 10 title outright. Like Maryland, they were good, but not elite.

LSU
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 371 268
Point Differential: +103
Pythagorean: 8.20-3.80
Close Games: 2-1
Winning Record: 4-3
Road Games: 3-1
Opp Win %: .567 (80-61)

Despite 3 conference losses, the Tigers won the SEC by upseting Tennessee in the championship game. Clearly not the best team in the conference, they lost at home to Florida by 29 points.

Colorado
Record: 10-2 (7-1)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 396 280
Point Differential: +116
Pythagorean: 8.33-3.67
Close Games: 2-1
Winning Record: 5-2
Road Games: 3-1
Opp Win %: .589 (86-60)

Despite the fact that they won the Big12, Colorado was not the best team in the conference, and definitely not the second best team in the nation. Before upsetting Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game, they had lost to the Longhorns by 34 points. In 4 of the 6 BCS conferences, the best team clearly did not win (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC).

BCS Contenders

Oregon
Record: 10-1 (7-1)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 374 240
Point Differential: +134
Pythagorean: 8.15-2.85
Close Games: 5-1
Winning Record: 3-1
Road Games: 5-0
Opp Win %: .508 (64-62)

Finally a deserving BCS champion. The Ducks did have some good luck in close games (5-1), but were clearly the best team in the Pac 10. Still, their point differential was not that great and their schedule strength was pretty weak. I'm not including the bowl game because this writing is intended to be a summation of the regular season. However, they did trounce Colorado by in the Fiesta Bowl.

Nebraska
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 449 189
Point Differential: +260
Pythagorean: 10.63-1.37
Close Games: 0-0
Winning Record: 5-1
Road Games: 3-1
Opp Win %: .546 (77-64)

Ah the team that started this whole mess. Before their loss to Colorado, this looked like the Nebraska of old. They hadn't really been challenged except by Oklahoma in a game they eventually won by 10 points. Of course, besides Oklahoma, the best team they had played prior to Colorado was either Iowa State (7-5) or Texas Tech (7-5). That coupled with the Colorado curb-stomping keeps prevents them from landing the #2 slot.

Oklahoma
Record: 10-2 (6-2)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 387 166
Point Differential: +221
Pythagorean: 10.58-1.42
Close Games: 1-1
Winning Record: 4-1
Road Games: 3-1
Opp Win %: .510 (73-70)

The defending champs had their chance until an unthinkable slip up at home against Oklahoma State. Oklahoma had a solid point differential and defeated Texas, but the slip up to a team as bad as Oklahoma State seals the argument against them. Those Cowboys finished 4-7 and their other victories were over Louisiana Tech (7-5), Baylor (3-8) and non-Division IA Northwestern State.

Texas
Record: 10-2 (7-1)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 470 164
Point Differential: +306
Pythagorean: 11.09-0.91
Close Games: 0-1
Winning Record: 4-2
Road Games: 5-0
Opp Win %: .510 (73-70)

The beneficiary of Oklahoma State's upset over Oklahoma. The irony in everything is that Texas was likely headed for a BCS bowl if Oklahoma hadn't been upset. Instead they got a rematch with a Colorado team that previously beaten by 34 in the Big12 Championship. A win there could have propelled them to the Rose Bowl. However, the upset loss relegated them to the Holiday Bowl. A very good point differential keep them in the conversation despite the upset by Colorado.

Tennessee
Record: 10-2 (7-1)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 355 234
Point Differential: +121
Pythagorean: 8.74-3.26
Close Games: 4-1
Winning Record: 6-2
Road Games: 5-0
Opp Win %: .594 (85-58)

Before their loss to LSU, the Vols only blemish was to Georgia by 2 points. That was the only close game the Vols would lose. They scraped by LSU the first time by 8, beat South Carolina (9-3) by 7, beat Kentucky (2-9) by 2, and narrowly escaped Florida in the Swamp by 2. The Vols are a solid candidate, but their relatively small point differential keeps them out of the #2 slot.

Florida
Record: 9-2 (6-2)
Points Scored Points Allowed: 482 155
Point Differential: +327
Pythagorean: 10.3-0.70
Close Games: 0-2
Winning Record: 5-2
Road Games: 3-1
Opp Win %: .557 (73-58)

Florida was good in 2001, very good. In Steve Spurrier's final season they whipped Marshall (11-2) by 35. They won at LSU by 29. They won at South Carolina (9-3) by 37. They beat Florida State (8-4) by 24. Unfortunately, the bounces in close games did not go their way. They lost to Auburn (7-5) by 3 and to Tennessee by 2. 5 points separated Florida from an undefeated season. Despite their 2 losses, in my opinion Florida was the second best team in 2001. They had the highest point differential of any team besides Miami, they played a tough schedule and dominated several good teams, and their losses were close games to good team. Would they have beaten Miami in the 2001 Rose Bowl? Probably not, Miami was on another level in 2001, but Florida had the best chance of any other team.

It's How You Finish

How important is ending the season on a winning note? It seems logical that teams that finish the season strong would have momentum in recruiting and a general good vibe among their fans for the following season. These factors combined with the standard maturity of college athletes after another semetser at school should equate to marked improvement for the team the following season. But is this logical progression true? Let's find out. To answer this question, I looked at how each BCS conference team finished the season in 2002, 2003, and 2004. I then looked at their record the following season (2003, 2004, 2005). To define finishing the season, I used each game played on or after November 1st. For most teams this was a sample of between 3-6 games. Of course better teams play more games after November 1st thanks to bowl games and conference championships. I then ran a regression analysis to determine how well the winning percentage in these closing games predicted each teams winning percentage the following year. Here are the R squared values for each of the three seasons.

End of 2002 Predicting 2003: .3432
End of 2003 Predicting 2004: .2976
End of 2004 Predicting 2005: .1445

There seems to be something to this logic. The way a team finishes the season does have at least a limited impact on their performance the following year. Is there a better way to judge how a team finishes a season? In order to access whether there is, I will run the same analysis, but instead use net points instead of winning percentage to predict the subsequent season's winning percentage. Net points are simply the amount of points a team has scored more or less than their opponents. A positive differential indicates the team in question has outscored their opponents, while a negative differential means they have been outscored. For example, if a team goes 3-1 from November first onward they have a winning percentage of .750. However, if their 3 wins are by 7, 3, and 4 points, and their loss is an annihilation by 40 points, then their net point total is -26.

End Net Points 2002 Predicting 2003: .3297
End Net Points 2003 Predicting 2004: .3256
End Net Points 2004 Predicting 2005: .2515

Again their appears to be at least a marginal relationship between a team's closing net points and their winning percentage the following year. This relationship is much more consistent than actual won/loss record in the season's final few games. Further validation that teams are a function of their points scored and allowed more than their won/loss record. However, the effect of finishing a season strong should not be overstated. As noted in an earlier post, a team's record for the entire year and Pythagorean record for the whole year are better predictors of their record the following year (at least for 2004-2005).