Bowl Preview: Viva Las Vegas and The Big Easy

Record: 1-0

Las Vegas and New Orleans. Sin City and the Big Easy. The Strip and Bourbon Street. Both cities have their fair share of extra curricular activities, but if the residents and visitors can pry themselves from their respective vices, they should find two very exciting and compelling bowl games.


Las Vegas Bowl: BYU versus Oregon

On Thursday, the Las Vegas Bowl matches up two of the most prolific offenses in the nation. BYU is 6th nationally in scoring averaging a robust 36.7 points per game. On the other sideline, Oregon averages ‘only’ 31.3 points per game. BYU has been held under 30 points only three times all season (they lost two of those games). Oregon has been held under 30 five times, including their last three contests. Oregon has also lost each game in which they have been held under 30 points.

The BYU offense is led by their senior quarterback John Beck who is completing an outstanding 70% of his passes while averaging almost 9 and a half yards per pass. He has also tossed 30 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions. But don’t confuse this Cougars team with a garden variety run ‘n shoot squad. While the running game is not upper-echelon, it is productive. The committee approach is led by senior Curtis Brown with his 900 yards and nearly 4.8 average per rush. The Cougars are also pretty solid on defense. They rank 16th in the nation in points allowed per game (15.3). They are equally good against the run (allowing only 3.6 yards per rush) and the pass (16 interceptions and only 11 touchdowns allowed). And special teams? They’re pretty solid there too. They are 11th in the nation averaging over 13 and a half yards per punt return. They also limit opponents to only a shade over 6 yards per punt return (23rd in country) and under 19 yards per kickoff return (29th nationally).

As mentioned earlier, the Ducks are no slouch on offense either. However, their offense is carried more by the running game than the passing game. Super soph Jonathan Stewart, when he was able to play, tore through opposing defenses while averaging a very good 5.5. yards per rush. Sophomore Jeremiah Johnson performed well while spelling Stewart, averaging over 6 yards per rush himself. The passing game was a different story. While far from anemic, the Ducks certainly missed departed signal caller Kellen Clemens. Brady Leaf was the better of the two-headed junior quarterbacks, but he played only half as much as Dennis Dixon. Leaf is expected to start the bowl game, and if he does, the offense should be in better shape. Unfortunately, the Ducks still lag behind the Cougars in two other areas: defense and special teams. The Ducks rank 84th nationally in points allowed. Part of that rating is a function of their less than stellar defense, and the other part is a function of their horrible special teams. Oregon is 109th nationally, allowing over 12 and a half yards per punt return. On kickoffs, they are little better (86th) allowing 21.6 yards per return. The defense has not been terrible against the rush (4.3 yards per rush allowed) or the pass (opponents have completed 54% of their passes while throwing 15 touchdowns and 13 interceptions), but that slightly below average play in conjunction with the atrocious specials teams (and the short field that goes with it) cause the Ducks to allow a lot of points.

Prediction: Believe it or not, the Cougars are a very good team, losing only on the road to Arizona (by 3 despite outgaining the Wildcats) and Boston College (in OT). Oregon is not a good team. If the Oklahoma game was officiated properly, the Ducks would be 6-6 and possibly staying at home for the holidays. The Cougars win going away.


New Orleans Bowl: Rice versus Troy

The New Orleans bowl matches up two teams not used to participating in the bowl season. Rice is making its first bowl appearance since 1961 and Troy is making only its second bowl appearance in the programs history.

The Owls are 7-5 in coach Todd Graham’s first season, representing the program’s high-water mark for wins since 2001. The Owls do one thing well—throw the football. Quarterback Chase Clement and wide receiver Jarrett Dillard form a dynamic aerial assault for the Owls. A year after completing less than half his passes in a much different offense as a freshman, Clement completed nearly 58% of his passes and tossed 21 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. Most of those completions and touchdowns went to Dillard who grabbed 82 balls and scored an amazing 20 touchdowns (including one in every game this year and the final two of last season for an amazing streak of 14 games with a touchdown catch). Did I say Rice did only one thing well? I should have said they do two things well—get lucky. The Owls were an amazing 5-1 in close games this season. Their last 4 victories, in a closing 6 game streak, came by a combined 14 points. Defensively, the Owls allow 5.3 yards per rush and opponents threw almost three times as many touchdowns (28) as interceptions (10).

The Troy Trojans are not as prolific on offense as Rice, preferring to control the clock and play field position with their running game. They actually ran the ball more often than passing it (403 rushes and 379 passes on the season). Unfortunately, their running game is far from dominant, and actually a little below average. They average only 3.8 yards per rush. Their passing game is on equal footing. Quarterback Omar Haugabook threw 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while averaging less than 6 yards per pass. The Trojans win with their defense which held opponents to 3.8 yards per rush. If we remove the Georgia Tech and Nebraska debacles when the Trojans were simply outmanned, that average drops to 2.9. Against the pass, the Trojans were not quite as good (allowed 15 touchdown passes while intercepting 11 balls). The Trojans were also pretty lucky, going 4-2 in close games.

Prediction: This game is a toss-up and should be quite entertaining. The Owls defense is awful, just awful. But the Trojans offense is not that great. It’s the movable object against the resistible force. The Trojans will shut down the Rice running game and force the Owls into long yardage situations. They’ll still convert their fair share, but in the 4th quarter, Rice’s string of good luck will run out and the Trojans will prevail.

Bowl Preview: Poinsettia--A Poor Man's Rose

Poinsettia Bowl: Northern Illinois versus TCU

Fun fact: The poinsettia is named after Joel Robert Poinsett, the first United States ambassador to Mexico. Ah, the wonders of wikipedia.

TCU comes in riding high on a 7 game winning streak. The Horned Frogs fell off the national radar after consecutive losses to BYU and Utah at mid-season. During those 7 games, the Horned Frogs have been challenged only once—in a 27-21 road win over New Mexico. In that game, normally efficient Senior quarterback Jeff Ballard completed only 6 of his 16 pass attempts for a paltry 25 yards. Besides Ballard, the strength of the TCU team is their rushing attack (which averages 194 yards per game and 4.56 yards per carry) and their stifling defense (12.8 points allowed per game). TCU’s pass defense is good, but their run defense is outstanding. They held opponent’s to 68 yards per game and only 2.4 yards per rush.

If the Frogs want to win this game, they’d better hold that line. Northern Illinois is far from a one-dimensional team, but they are certainly carried by their star running back Garrett Wolfe. Wolfe had over 1900 yards rushing and averaged over 6 and a half yards per rush. Wolfe is an exceptional player, but he is far from Super Man. He was actually bottled up in 4 games (one third of the schedule). He averaged under 2 yards per rush against Western Michigan, under 3 against Temple (!?), exactly 3 against Iowa, and under 4 against Toledo. Context and sample size are not issues in these games. The Huskies were very much in the games they lost to Western Michigan (by 2), Iowa (by 10), and Toledo (by 4), and Wolfe had at least 15 carries in all 4 contests. The Horned Frog defense will contain Garrett Wolfe and put the onus of the game on quarterback Phil Horvath. Horvath is a solid player, but will not be able to consistently move the ball against a TCU defense that consistently holds down the running game.

The one-wild card that may aid Northern Illinois is their return game. At least their punt return game. The Huskies averaged nearly 12 yards per punt return (good for 26th nationally). Of course, TCU only allows a shade over 5 yards per return (15th in the nation). If the Huskies can break a return or two to shake up the field position they will have a chance.

Prediction: The Huskies will keep this game close (and definitely cover than 12-12.5 point spread), but their lack of a good pass defense (opponents have completed 64% of their passes and thrown only 7 interceptions) and inability to consistently move the ball will be their downfall.

Regular Season Wrap-Up

Finishing things up with the WAC and the Independents.

WAC

Boise State
Record: 12-0
Conference Record: 8-0
Pythagorean Record: 10.80-1.20
Grade: A
Not a bad start for Chris Peterson. Another WAC Championship and the schools first BCS bid. I for one am very anxious to see running back Ian Johnson go up against the stout Oklahoma defense.

Fresno State
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 4-4
Pythagorean Record: 4.57-7.43
Grade: C-
2006 was a lost season for Pat Hill and the Bulldogs, but there is a silver lining. 5 of the losses came to bowl teams, including two in non-conference play against Oregon and LSU. Also lost to Washington on a missed extra point outside WAC play. Bulldogs continued to play hard despite their struggles, winning 3 of their last 4.

Hawaii
Record: 10-3
Conference Record: 7-1
Pythagorean Record: 10.82-2.18
Grade: A
The best Hawaii team ever? Warriors had not only the best offense of the June Jones-era (47.3 points per game), but also the best defense (24.1 points allowed per game). Every loss was by 8 points or fewer.

Idaho
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 1.84-10.16
Grade: C
The Vandals did post their most wins since 2000 (when they went 5-6), but were not competitive down the stretch, losing their last 5 by 32.2 points per game. To make matters worse, head coach Dennis Erickson got out of Moscow faster than the Anastasia.

Louisiana Tech
Record: 3-10
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 1.68-11.32
Grade: D+
A year after going 6-2 in conference play, the bottom fell out for Terry Bradshaw’s alma mater. 3 wins were over Utah State (1-11), North Texas (3-9), and Nicholls State (IAA).

Nevada
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 9.12-2.88
Grade: A-
The Wolfpack just keep on rolling in Chris Ault’s second stint with the team. The ‘Pistol’ offense gets all the press, but the story was the defense with a WAC best 17.8 points allowed per game in conference play.

New Mexico State
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 6.10-5.90
Grade: B+
After Mumme got some of his recruits in, the Aggies offense improved dramatically (31.2 points per game versus 16.5 last season). Aggies were a tough luck 0-4 in close games. Expect them to head to a bowl game in 2007.

San Jose State
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 7.15-4.85
Grade: A+
To you a New Mexico bowl bid may not mean much. But to the Spartans and Tomey, it means a ton. Dick Tomey has worked wonders in his second season at San Jose. The Spartans improved from 3-8 to 8-4 and are going to their first bowl game since 1990.

Utah State
Record: 1-11
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 0.57-11.43
Grade: D-
Bad year all around for the Aggies. Their lone victory was a 13-12 decision over Fresno State.

Independents

Army
Record: 3-9
Pythagorean Record: 3.54-8.46
Grade: C-
Bobby Ross has certainly improved the Black Knights since arriving in 2004. However, he can’t seem to get over the hump and have a winning season or beat their rivals in Annapolis.

Navy
Record: 9-3
Pythagorean Record: 8.50-3.50
Grade: A
Paul Johnson continues to work his magic for the Midshipmen. Navy only went 1-3 against bowl-bound teams (win over East Carolina and losses to Notre Dame, Tulsa, and Rutgers), but that’s a small quibble. Navy actually went 5-0 in true road games. For all the credit Johnson gets for neutralizing the talent disparity with his unique option offense, the defense is the unit that has actually improved the most since he took over in 2002. In 2002, the Naval Academy scored 24.2 points per game. In 2006, they scored 28.6 per game (an increase of a little more than 18%). In 2002, they allowed 36.3 points per game. In 2006, they allowed 19.7 per game (nearly 46% fewer points per game).

Notre Dame
Record: 10-2
Pythagorean Record: 8.47-3.53
Grade: B+
As much as I hate the Irish and Charlie Weiss, he has done wonders for Brady Quinn. In 2004, the year before Weiss arrived; Quinn completed 54% of his passes, averaged 7.3 yards per pass, and threw 17 touchdowns versus 10 interceptions. In 2005, Weiss’ first season, Quinn completed 65% of his passes, averaged 8.7 yards per pass, and threw 32 touchdowns versus 7 interceptions. This past season, Quinn completed 63% of his passes, averaged 7.6 yards per pass, and threw 35 touchdowns against 5 interceptions. Irish parlaying 4 decent wins (Georgia Tech, Penn State, Purdue, and UCLA) and 2 blowout losses (Michigan and So Cal) into a BCS berth.

Temple
Record: 1-11
Pythagorean Record: 0.49-11.51
Grade: C
At Temple, progress is measured in baby steps. Owls won one more game than in 2005, averaged a little over a point more per game, and held opponents to about 4 points less per game.

Regular Season Wrap-Up

On the home stratch with the SEC and Sun Belt.

SEC

Alabama
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 7.48-4.52
Grade: C
With all the Tide lost after last season’s 10-2 campaign, 6-6 is not that bad. The only game Bama lost that they should have probably won was the Mississippi State game. Unfortunately drew two of the SEC East’s strongest teams on the road (Florida and Tennessee) in their inter-division games. Should have held onto Shula for at least one more season.

Arkansas
Record: 10-3
Conference Record: 7-1
Pythagorean Record: 9.90-3.10
Grade: A
After two disappointing season’s Hogs rebounded under Nutt to have their best season since 1998. If the quarterback situation improves before next season, Arkansas could get back to the SEC Championship Game.

Auburn
Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 6-2
Pythagorean Record: 9.68-2.32
Grade: B+
Auburn defense did their part to help the Tigers win the SEC West. Offense did not. In conference play, they finished 7th in scoring and only broke 30 against Mississippi State.

Florida
Record: 12-1
Conference Record: 7-1
Pythagorean Record: 11.17-1.83
Grade: A-
Things couldn’t have gone much better for the Gators in Meyer’s second season. However, the offense did not improve as much as most (including me expected). Team averaged 28.6 points per game last season and 28.8 this season. Defense was the key holding opponents to 13.5 points per game versus 18.8 n 2005. Look to be living on borrowed time (5-0 in close games).

Georgia
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 4-4
Pythagorean Record: 8.46-3.54
Grade: B
After losing to Kentucky in early November, every Georgia fan had nightmares of 6-6. Then the Dogs spanked Auburn and made Reggie Ball look like, well Reggie Ball to finish their ‘rebuilding’ year at 8-4.

Kentucky
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 4-4
Pythagorean Record: 5.36-6.64
Grade: A
It’s a shame Kentucky’s best season in ages will probably end with a 7-6 record. Cats were oh so close to beating Tennessee and finishing second in the SEC East. Weirdest (and maybe the most entertaining) game of the season is probably Kentucky’s 2-point win over a terrible Louisiana-Monroe team (4-8).

LSU
Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 6-2
Pythagorean Record: 10.91-1.09
Grade: A-
Exhibit A for why college football needs a playoff. How good are the Tigers? Very hard to tell. They destroyed several teams, but lost to two of the stronger teams they played (Florida and Auburn) which were also on the road. Needed a last second touchdown pass to beat Tennessee (sans starting quarterback) on the road, and needed a historically bad performance by Arkansas quarterback Casey Dick to beat the Hogs away from Death Valley. Alas, the bowl game probably won’t shed much light on the subject as the Tigers should handle an overrated Notre Dame team in the Sugar Bowl.

Mississippi
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 3.47-8.53
Grade: C-
Brent Schaeffer didn’t exactly make people forget Archie Manning in Oxford, completing only 47.1% of his passes. Rebs can point to the fact that they won two of their last four while taking LSU to overtime and playing Auburn within a touchdown (both on the road) in the two losses.

Mississippi State
Record: 3-9
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 3.73-8.27
Grade: C-
Time may be running out for Sylvester Croom. A third straight 3-win season and a combined 4-20 record in conference play mean there has to be substantial improvement in Year 4 to justify keeping Croom around.

South Carolina
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 8.52-3.48
Grade: B-
Mark it down, Gamecocks will be the next year’s Arkansas. The Cocks lost close games to elite teams (7 to Auburn, 7 to Tennessee, 6 to Arkansas, and 1 at Florida) and The OBC will have had his system in place for three seasons. Get on the band wagon now.

Tennessee
Record: 9-3
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 8.70-3.30
Grade: B+
Cutcliffe returns and the offense improves and Ainge progresses. Coincidence? Not likely. Season may seem a tad below par after the opening shellacking of top-10 Cal, but the Bears were a little overrated.

Vanderbilt
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 5.48-5.52
Grade: C
Vandy lost a first round draft pick and only lost one win off last year’s pace. Bobby Johnson is building something in Nashville. Vandy is much more competitive than when he first arrived. Vandy’s record in close games by season under Bobby Johnson:
2002: 1-4
2003: 0-2
2004: 0-5
2005: 4-4
2006: 1-4
One season the breaks will go their way and the ‘Dores will win 7 or 8 games.

Sun Belt

Arkansas State
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 4-3
Pythagorean Record: 3.01-8.99
Grade: B
Two straight 6-win seasons and a victory over the eventual conference champions (Troy). Success not always measured in bowl games and national titles. Indians were 4-0 in close games so look for some regression in that area in 2007.

Florida Atlantic
Record: 5-7
Conference Record: 4-3
Pythagorean Record: 2.80-9.20
Grade: B+
After they got through the early non-conference slate (outscored 192-20 in first 4 games against Clemson, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and South Carolina) Owls played well under Schnellenberger. Vastly improved on last season’s 2-9 mark.

Florida International
Record: 0-12
Conference Record: 0-7
Pythagorean Record: 1.02-10.98
Grade: C-
Sweep the leg, swing the helmet. Slogan for the FIU Dojo. Panthers not as bad as their record (0-4) in close games.

Louisiana-Lafeyette
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 3-4
Pythagorean Record: 4.76-7.24
Grade: C
Somewhat disappointing season for a team many pegged to win the Sun Belt. Did score a crucial non-conference upset against Houston.

Louisiana-Monroe
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 3-4
Pythagorean Record: 5.87-6.13
Grade: C
Warhawks turned in on at season’s end winning 3 of 4 and losing to Kentucky by only 2. 9 starters back on offense and 6 on defense. Sun Belt champs in 2007?

Middle Tennessee State
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 6-1
Pythagorean Record: 6.28-5.72
Grade: A-
Rick Stockstill did a fine job in his first season in Murfreesboro. Blue Raiders allowed the fewest 92 points in conference play (13.1 per game) and scored the most 204 (29.1 per game). Still didn’t win the conference.

North Texas
Record: 3-9
Conference Record: 2-5
Pythagorean Record: 2.00-10.00
Grade: C
Mean Green fallen on hard times since winning 4 straight Sun Belt titles from 2001-2004. Only scored 76 points in conference play (which was still 22 more than Florida International).

Troy
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 6-1
Pythagorean Record: 5.54-6.46
Grade: A
The other Trojans will be enjoying the second bowl game in school history. In their six years of play in Division IA, Trojans have three winning seasons and only two losing seasons. This is their first conference title in Division IA.

Regular Season Wrap-Up

Recapping the Mountain West and Pac-10.

Mountain West

Air Force
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 5.44-6.56
Grade: C-
The third losing season in a row for Fisher DeBerry and the Falcons. Will DeBerry experience a Jo-Pa like revival or is has the game passed him by? The Falcons were an unlucky 2-5 in close games so they can expect some improvement in that area next season.

BYU
Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 8-0
Pythagorean Record: 10.67-1.33
Grade: A
In his second season, Bronco Mendenhall led the Cougars to an undefeated season in Mountain West play. Cougars were not challenged in conference play until the final game against Utah. Lost close games on the road early on against Arizona and Boston College. If they win those two, do teams crash the BCS party?

Colorado State
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 4.18-7.82
Grade: D+
Like DeBerry, Sonny Lubick has endured 3 straight non-winning seasons. Rams lost 7 in a row after a 4-1 start to finish the season on a serious downer. Rams has the worst offense in Mountain West play (14.1 points per game).

New Mexico
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 4-4
Pythagorean Record: 5.50-6.50
Grade: C+
Six years of bowl-eligibility in a row for Rocky Long’s Lobos. They didn’t really deserve the bowl bid (more on that later), but are going nonetheless. Lobos somehow lost at home to Portland State in the opener.

San Diego State
Record: 3-9
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 2.13-9.87
Grade: C-
Aztec fans and prognosticators in general probably expected much more out of San Diego State this season. Looking back, some of the games look very impressive (lost by 14 at Wisconsin) and others (lost by 2 at home to Cal-Poly), well, not so much. Chuck Long’s offense averaged under 15 points per game in conference play.

TCU
Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 6-2
Pythagorean Record: 10.46-1.54
Grade: B+
Not many people seemed to notice, but the Horned Frogs won 10 games for the fourth time in five years. After beginning conference play 0-2, reeled off 6 straight conference wins, and only one was by less than 10 points.

UNLV
Record: 2-10
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 2.95-9.05
Grade: D
Another two win season and another 1-7 finish in conference play for the Rebels. Mike Sanford needs to show some improvement in his third season or he may be back with brother Lamont selling junk and drinking Ripple.

Utah
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 8.18-3.82
Grade: B-
Another winning season and bowl appearance for Kyle Whittingham. Still, the Utes did not compete for the Mountain West title as many observers expected. They also failed miserably in their two non-conference tests, losing to UCLA and Boise State by a combined score of 67-13.

Wyoming
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 5.84-6.16
Grade: B
They finished with the same record (6-6) as New Mexico, a better conference record (5-3) than New Mexico (4-4), and beat New Mexico 14-10 (at New Mexico). Yet the Cowboys don’t go to a bowl and the Lobos do. Too bad they don’t have the Wyoming bowl in their backyard. Still, the season has to be considered a success for a team many picked to finish last in the Mountain West.

Pac-10

Arizona
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 4-5
Pythagorean Record: 4.83-7.17
Grade: C+
Mike Stoops has his first non-losing season in Tucson. 2006 was a tale of two seasons as the Wildcats began the year 2-4 before winning 4 of their last 6 (and 3 of their last 4 including a win over Cal) to finish 6-6. The defense is where Stoops want it (18.6 points allowed per game—second in conference play), but the offense has to improve (16.9 points per game—second to last in conference play) if the team is to improve.

Arizona State
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 4-5
Pythagorean Record: 6.90-5.10
Grade: C-
Same old song and dance for the Sun Devils got Dirk Koetter canned. Sun Devils were fourth in conference play in points scored and second to last in conference play in points allowed. Does Dennis Erickson still have it?

Cal
Record: 9-3
Conference Record: 7-2
Pythagorean Record: 8.98-3.02
Grade: B+
You know Jeff Tedford’s done a helluva job when a 9 win season is seen as somewhat of a disappointment. The Golden Bears anxiously await their first BCS bowl bid under Tedford. It will come, just be patient.

Oregon
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 4-5
Pythagorean Record: 7.40-4.60
Grade: C+
If the Oklahoma game is officiated properly, this team is 6-6. Ducks lost their last 3 including a home beat down at the hand of Arizona. This was their worst non-USC home loss since a 55-16 loss to Washington in 2003.

Oregon State
Record: 9-4
Conference Record: 6-3
Pythagorean Record: 8.36-4.64
Grade: B+
Began the season 2-3 with blowout losses to Boise State and Cal, but rebounded to win 7 of their last 8 including the dramatic home upset of USC. Don’t overlook the regular season finale against perhaps the best Hawaii team in a long time.

Stanford
Record: 1-11
Conference Record: 1-8
Pythagorean Record: 0.85-11.15
Grade: F
Just an atrocious season for Stanford. In 9 of their 12 games, they scored 10 points or fewer. Only 3 of their losses were within 20 points.

UCLA
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 5-4
Pythagorean Record: 7.63-4.37
Grade: B
The USC game was a microcosm of how far the Bruins defense has come since the end of last season. UCLA has nearly cut its points allowed in half (34.2 in 2005 and 17.9 in 2006) and dominated defensively against the Trojans. Hopefully the brass in LA sticks with Karl Dorrell.

USC
Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 7-2
Pythagorean Record: 10.12-1.88
Grade: A-
5 straight BCS bids for the Trojans. USC was nowhere near as dominant as they have been the last few seasons, but the defense dramatically improved and that bodes well for 2007.

Washington
Record: 5-7
Conference Record: 3-6
Pythagorean Record: 4.80-7.20
Grade: B-
Six game losing streak put a black mark on an otherwise solid season. Huskies did rebound to win the Apple Cup against Wazzu. Willingham is doing a great job at a school that won one game the season before he got there.

Washington State
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 4-5
Pythagorean Record: 6.45-5.55
Grade: C+
Three straight losses to end the season, including a nail-biter in the Apple Cup have put Bill Doba in hot water. Cougars managed a strange 4-2 road record and 2-4 home record.

Don't Know What You Got, 'Til Its Gone

From the looks of things, it appears Tom O'Brien is leaving Boston College. It appears his gypsy roads will lead him to NC State. If this does indeed come to pass, Boston College will be losing a quality football coach. Of course, some fanatical BC fans will have you believe it is a good thing Tom O'Brien is vacating the head coaching position at Chestnut Hill. This website apparently believes winning 8 or 9 games at BC is not enough. They advocate a return to the Eagles' illustrious past--mentioning Frank Leahy, Doug Flutie, and Tom Coughlin as examples of the Eagles' great history (more on that later). Of course, they don't really explain what they want (I'm guessing a conference championsip of sorts) nor do they explain how to go about achieving such results.

The primary crux of FTOB's argument is that BC has plateaued under O'Brien and is just running in place.

'Tom O'Brien has been the head football coach at Boston College since 1997. When he arrived at BC, the athletic department was reeling from a massive gambling scandal involving a number of football players. O'Brien did an admirable job returning respectability and integrity to the football program, and for his first 3 years at BC took baby steps towards returning the Eagles to a position of national relevance. We thank him for the job he did in those early years.'

Is this true? Let's take a look. Here is O'Brien's won-lost record year by year at BC beginning with his first season.

4-7
4-7
8-4
7-5
8-4
9-4
8-5
9-3
9-3
9-3

Sure, I suppose FTOB is partly right that BC has plateaued, but I would argue that plateuing at 9-3 is much better than plateuing at say 5-6 or 6-5. And let's not forget that BC has moved on to a tougher conference. After playing in a conference that was dominated by one or two teams (Miami and Virginia Tech usually and Syracuse once) for most of O'Brien's tenure, the Eagles moved to a much stronger (top to bottom) conference in the ACC where the only assured victory is against Duke. Still, we'll give FTOB the benefit of the doubt. But FTOB also points out that O'Brien has failed to beat the top teams in his conference. In their own words.

'But something funny happened on the way to the Orange Bowl. Around 2001, the progress grinded to a halt. Each year was the same as the last, a soft schedule, some disappointing losses, and a total inability to beat the top teams in our conference.'

Here is BC's year by year record under Tom O'Brien against teams that finished the season with winning records.

1-5
1-6
1-3
1-5
2-4
2-4
3-3
2-1
4-2
5-1

Hold on a second. That looks suspiciously like improvement. In fact it almost looks like constant improvement. BC has improved its record against winning teams each of the last 5 seasons, culminating with a 5-1 record this past season.

Now let's take a look at FTOB's other point--BC's storied history. FTOB mentions Frank Leahy when discussing past glories. For starters, Mr. Leahy did coach the Eagles...for two seasons. He did compile an amazing 20-2 record in his two season stint including a Sugar Bowl win in his final game, but that happened between 1939 and 1940. Army and Navy were also super powers in that era. To suggest that unblemished 1940 season has any direct impact on BC football today is sheer lunacy.

Next up on the BC honor roll is Doug Flutie. Flutie had a fantastic 1984 season. He won the Heisman Trophy and BC finished with a 10-2 record including a Cotton Bowl win over Houston. But look at the scedule. For all the flak FTOB gives O'Brien for a soft schedule, they completely ignore dearth of great wins for that BC team. Two wins came against non D-IA teams. Find their best win. It took a Hail Mary to beat a decent but hardly great Miami team that finished 8-5. Their best win is probably against Army (8-3-1). Plus they lost to West Virgina (8-4) and Penn State (6-5). BC was a good team in 1984, but to suggest that they were substantially better than any of the two most recent incarnations of the Eagles is to ignore the facts.

Finally FTOB mentions Tom Coughlin, erstwhile coach of the New York Giants. Here is Coughlin's won/loss record in his 3 seasons at BC.

4-7
8-3-1
9-3

I'm not gonna dispute the fact that Coughlin got the Eagles back on track faster than O'Brien, but those Eagles' teams were hardly elite. Coughlin's second team (1992) did lose its 3 games to teams with at least 9 wins, but 6 of their 8 wins game against teams with losing records (including 4 with 3 wins or less). Their 2 wins over winning teams were against a 7-4 Rutgers team (who had 5 wins against teams with 3 wins or fewer) and Penn State (7-5 and also with 5 wins against teams with 3 wins or fewer). The 1993 squad did beat some good teams including Notre Dame (11-1) costing the Irish a shot at the national title and Virgina Tech (9-3), but also lost to Northwestern (2-9).

And as for the fact that BC continues to play in low-level bowls against also-rans, well that's not really O'Brien's fault. Bowl selection is more about making money than rewarding teams who had good seasons. BC simply doesn't have the following of their conference brethren (like Clemson) which is why they will continue to get shafted in the bowl selection process.

Anyway, the point of this post is that I stalwartly disagree with just about every word on the FTOB website. The only thing more ridiculous that FTOB would be some disgruntled George Mason fan starting firejimlarranaga.com should the Patriots fail to make this year's NCAA tournament. Unless BC plans on hiring Bear Bryant as coach, anyone who believes BC is in better shape without Tom O'Brien is a moron. Glam rock band Cinderella said it best: You don't know what you got, 'til its gone.

Regular Season Wrap-Up

Time to show the little guys some love.

Conference USA

East Carolina
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 6.74-5.26
Grade: B+
Pirates bounced back from a rough start to win 5 of their final six games. Beat two ACC teams (Virginia and NC State) in non-conference play.

Houston
Record: 10-3
Conference Record: 7-1
Pythagorean Record: 9.38-3.62
Grade: B+
Aside from the inexplicable home loss to Louisiana-Lafayette, the season went about as well as could be expected. Nearly beat Miami in the Orange Bowl. Cougars, led by Kevin Kolb, had by far the best offense in Conference USA (32.8 points per game).

Marshall
Record: 5-7
Conference Record: 4-4
Pythagorean Record: 5.15-6.85
Grade: C
Thundering Herd closed the season winning 4 of 6 after a 1-5 start. Still, coach Mark Snyder will be squarely on the hot seat next year after consecutive losing seasons in his first two years on the job.

Memphis
Record: 2-10
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 4.20-7.80
Grade: D
After 3 consecutive winning seasons, the Tigers fell off a cliff, winning only 2 games. Part of it was attrition (the Tigers lost their starting quarterback, running back, and half of their starting defense from 2005) and part of it was dumb luck. The Tigers were 0-5 in close games. Tigers are a Conference USA sleeper for next season.

Rice
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 6-2
Pythagorean Record: 4.87-7.13
Grade: A+
The Owls are the Cinderella story of 2006. Rice is making its first bowl appearance since 1961 under the tutelage of first year coach Todd Graham. Sophomore wide receiver Jarett Dillard is the story with 20 touchdown catches on the year. Good luck played a significant role in the Owl’s season as they went 5-1 in close games. May regress next season before turning the corner for good under Graham.

SMU
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 4-4
Pythagorean Record: 6.71-5.29
Grade: B+
After a long hiatus, the Pony Express may be back. Mustangs have improved each season under Phil Bennett since going winless in 2003. Season did not begin promising with blowout losses to Texas Tech and North Texas. A win in the North Texas (3-9) game and the Mustangs are probably bowling. Only won 1 road game.

Southern Miss
Record: 8-5
Conference Record: 6-2
Pythagorean Record: 8.44-4.56
Grade: B+
Another year, another bowl game for the Golden Eagles. This year makes 5 in a row. Integrated a new starting quarterback, Jeremy Young, in place of the departed Dustin Almond, and still managed to win their half of Conference USA. Jeff Bower is vastly underrated.

Tulane
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 2.42-9.58
Grade: C-
Green Wave will probably catch a lot of heat for letting Chris Scelfo go one year after guiding the team through the Hurricane Katrina tragedy. However, the fact remains that Tulane has posted only two winning seasons and one bowl game in his 8 years at the school.

Tulsa
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 8.54-3.46
Grade: B+
I have to say, I expected more from the Golden Hurricane. Still 8 wins at one of the smallest schools in Division I-A is quite an accomplishment for Steve Kragthorpe.

UAB
Record: 3-9
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 4.09-7.91
Grade: D+
After giving Oklahoma all they could handle in Norman, and then beating East Carolina in week 2, the Blazers looked to be real contenders in Conference USA. Even following two consecutive losses, the Blazers rebounded to stand at 3-3 at the season’s midpoint. Then they lost the final 6 games. Blazers were 2-5 in close games, so whoever coaches next season is likely to see improvement in that ara.

UCF
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 3.37-8.63
Grade: C-
After a charmed season where they went 4-1 in close games and played for the conference title, the Golden Knights slipped to 4-8. Three tough non-conference games (Florida, Pittsburgh, and South Florida) account for some of the poor record. George O’Leary didn’t forget how to coach any more than he did during the 0-11 campaign. Knights will be back among Conference USA contenders next season.

UTEP
Record: 5-7
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 5.06-6.94
Grade: D-
What happened? In Jordan Palmer’s senior season the Miners couldn’t dig in the last half of the season finishing the year 1-5. Offense finished only 7th in scoring in conference play (25.3 points per game).

MAC

Akron
Record: 5-7
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 5.03-6.97
Grade: C
Zips failed to build on first bowl trip in nearly 30 years, but they did upend NC State.in Raleigh.

Ball State
Record: 5-7
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 6.38-5.62
Grade: C
Cardinals had the best season in Brady Hoke’s tenure winning 5 games. Lost to the Big 10’s Indiana by a single point, but have to be kicking themselves for losing to I-AA North Dakota State.

Bowling Green
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 3.50-8.50
Grade: C-
Life without Omar Jacobs wasn’t much fun for the Falcons. First losing season in Gregg Brandon’s stay. His record has gotten worse each year (11-3, 9-3, 6-5, 4-8) since taking over for Urban Meyer.

Buffalo
Record: 2-10
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 2.03-9.97
Grade: C-
Bulls won their first game under Turner Gill against Temple, but it was all down hill from there. Except for the amazing home beatdown of a pretty good Kent State team.

Central Michigan
Record: 9-4
Conference Record: 7-1
Pythagorean Record: 8.41-4.59
Grade: A
Brian Kelly did a great job after moving up from Grand Valley State three seasons ago. Unfortunately, it was too good a job as he is moving on to Cincinnati now. He does leave outstanding freshman quarterback Dan LeFevour to his replacement so the Chippewas should remain a MAC contender.

Eastern Michigan
Record: 1-11
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 2.09-9.91
Grade: D
After consecutive 4-7 seasons, the Eagles collapsed. That’s 4 seasons of at least 9 losses in the last 6 for the struggling program

Kent State
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 5.16-6.84
Grade: B+
6-6 is a world better than 1-10 which the Golden Flashes were in 2005. Played Minnesota and Virginia Tech in non-conference games. Actually were 4-0 in conference play before losing 3 of their last 4.

Miami
Record: 2-10
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 3.86-8.14
Grade: D+
Shane Montgomery’s sophomore campaign didn’t go to well. Redhawks were a tough luck 2-5 in close games, they could be a conference sleeper next season.

Northern Illinois
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 8.10-3.90
Grade: C
Garret Wolfe got his yards of course, but the Huskies underperformed most people’s expectations. They are going bowling for the second time in three years.

Ohio
Record: 9-4
Conference Record: 7-1
Pythagorean Record: 7.86-5.14
Grade: A
Frank Solich guided the Bobcats to an improbable appearance in the MAC title game thanks to a very good defense. The offense still needs work, but the Bobcats tll have a chance to win 10 games.

Toledo
Record: 5-7
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 4.83-7.17
Grade: C
After going 45-18 in his first 6 years at Toledo, Tom Amstutz, endured his first losing season. Rockets did close well, winning 3 of their last 4. Also defeated Kansas earlier in the season.

Western Michigan
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 6-2
Pythagorean Record: 7.19-4.81
Grade: B+
Bill Cubit is no zirconium. He’s done a fantastic job at Kalamazoo. After going 1-10 in 2004, the Broncos have achieved records of 7-4 and 8-4 in Cubit’s initial two seasons. Won at Virginia.

Regular Season Wrap-Up

Time for the Big 10 and Big 12.

Big 10

Illinois
Record: 2-10
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 3.88-8.12
Grade: C-
Illini have to improve next season or Zook is toast. Hurt by 1-4 record in close games. Can take solace in the fact they helped derail Michigan State’s season.

Indiana
Record: 5-7
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 3.63-8.37
Grade: C+
After 9 games, looked to be bowl bound, but lost their final 3 games to finish with a losing record. Still significant progress was made. If they had just beaten Southern Illinois (or Connecticut) would be bowl eligible.

Iowa
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 7.14-4.86
Grade: D-
Just an awful season for the Hawkeyes. Take away the games against Montana and defense’optional Purdue and the offense averaged under 20 points per game.

Michigan
Record: 11-1
Conference Record: 7-1
Pythagorean Record: 10.18-1.82
Grade: A-
Wolverines rebounded about as well as possible from the disappointing 7-5 campaign. Didn’t have the number of quality wins Florida had, but their loss was much better. Their resume for the championship game hinges on what you value more: better wins or better losses.

Michigan State
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 5.14-6.86
Grade: D
Raise your hand if you knew the season was finished after the loss to Notre Dame. Raise your hand if you knew the season was saved after the comeback over Northwestern. Ah, the fickle nature of momentum. Spartans did make a good hire after they rid themselves of the combustible John L. Smith.

Minnesota
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 6.92-5.08
Grade: C+
Glen Mason deserves a tremendous amount of credit for getting this team to keep playing hard en route to winning 4 of their last 5 and 3 in a row to qualify for another bowl game. Gophers fan should appreciate the job Mason has done at the school and not hound him for failing to turn them into Ohio State or Michigan.

Northwestern
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 3.01-8.99
Grade: C-
In a season mostly devoid of bright spots, the Wildcats did win two of their last 3, including a victory over Iowa. Hard to evaluate Pat Fitzgerald since he stepped into a situation with a team destined to decline no matter who was coaching.

Ohio State
Record: 12-0
Conference Record: 8-0
Pythagorean Record: 11.41-0.59
Grade: A+
Buckeyes did a fantastic job as they completely reshuffled their defense breaking in 9 new starters. After a somewhat down year in 2004, Buckeyes will be making their 4th BCS bowl appearance in 5 years (and 4th trip to Glendale).

Penn State
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 8.77-3.23
Grade: B
Lions beat the teams they should and lost to the teams they should. Benefited from a bogus pass-interference call to beat Minnesota. Two shut-outs on the year, including one on the road against a good Purdue offense.

Purdue
Record: 8-5
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 6.65-6.35
Grade: C
Instead of bitching about going to Hawaii in late November, maybe Joe Tiller should concentrate on finding a defense to take advantage of a Big 10 schedule lacking both Ohio State and Michigan.

Wisconsin
Record: 11-1
Conference Record: 7-1
Pythagorean Record: 10.81-1.19
Grade: A
Pretty good start for Bret Bielema. Imagine this scenario. Wisconsin beats Michigan and finishes 12-0. Where does Wisconsin finish in the BCS standings? Would there be an outcry if two teams from the same conference played for the championship under those circumstances?

Big 12

Baylor
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 3.81-8.19
Grade: C
Used to be 4 wins at Baylor was cause for celebration. The Bears have got to be a little disappointed after their 3-1 conference start, but the Texas Tech-lite offense looked good until quarterback Shawn Bell got hurt.

Colorado
Record: 2-10
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 3.90-8.10
Grade: C-
Not the start Dan Hawkins envisioned, but there are several facets to build on. For starters, the team was 0-4 in close games, and teams with a poor record in close games one year tend to improve in that category the following year and vice-versa. Secondly, the offense was the problem and Dan Hawkins is an offensive minded coach. Look for the Buffs to make a run for the North Division title next season.

Iowa State
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 1-7
Pythagorean Record: 2.86-9.14
Grade: D
It’s a shame Dan McCarney’s final season was also one of his worst. It did end on a positive note with the upset of Missouri in the home finale. Cyclones didn’t beat a single team; not Toledo (5-7), UNLV (2-10), or Division I-AA Northern Iowa by more than 6 points.

Kansas
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 6.91-5.09
Grade: B-
Mark Mangino did a fine job replacing 8 starters on the defensive side of the ball and getting Kansas back to bowl eligibility for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. Also beat Kansas State for the second time in 3 years after going winless for a decade. If they didn’t blow the game to Toledo, they’d be back in the postseason.

Kansas State
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 4-4
Pythagorean Record: 6.36-5.64
Grade: B
Not a bad opening act for the Ron Prince era. Highlight was obviously the upset of Texas over Veteran’s Day Weekend. Only quibble would be they only won road game (Colorado). Lost road games to Baylor and were pasted by both Missouri and Kansas away from Manhattan.

Missouri
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 4-4
Pythagorean Record: 9.17-2.83
Grade: B
The season ended on somewhat of a down note with 4 losses in the final 6 games. Still, the Tigers have equaled the apex of wins in the Brad Smith era with 8 and have a chance to eclipse it in Chase Daniels first season as the starting quarterback.

Nebraska
Record: 9-4
Conference Record: 6-2
Pythagorean Record: 10.22-2.78
Grade: B+
It took a while, but Bill Callahan has turned Nebraska into a dynamic passing offense. Huskers couldn’t beat any of the elite teams on their schedule (Southern Cal, Texas, and Oklahoma), but made up for it by beating everyone they should save Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma
Record: 11-2
Conference Record: 7-1
Pythagorean Record: 10.72-2.28
Grade: A
Bob Stoops did a terrific job keeping his team together despite injuries, dismissals, and some questionable officiating. He may have complained a little too much for my taste, but if not for that debacle in Oregon, the Sooners could make a case for inclusion in the BCS Championship Game (not that they would win that argument).

Oklahoma State
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 8.29-3.71
Grade: B+
After a disappointing maiden voyage under Mike Gundy, the Cowboys rebounded by exploding on offense. After averaging a shad over 20 points per game (20.2) in 2005, the Cowboys jumped to 35.3 points per game and actually scored the second most points in conference games (Texas). Cowboys lost some heartbreakers (0-4) in close games, especially the OT game against Texas A&M (two missed extra points).

Texas
Record: 9-3
Conference Record: 6-2
Pythagorean Record: 10.17-1.83
Grade: B+
A few weeks ago, the Horns were thinking national title. Then it was Big 12 title. Now its, Alamo Bowl title. Even with the late-season struggles, still have a chance to win 10 games for sixth straight season.

Texas A&M
Record: 9-3
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 8.99-3.01
Grade: B+
If he hadn’t saved his job before Thanksgiving, he certainly did afterward by beating Texas. Hard to tell how good A&M really is. Went 5-3 in close games, so very small margin for error.

Texas Tech
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 4-4
Pythagorean Record: 7.94-4.06
Grade: B
Red Raiders were all over the place. Blown out by Colorado. Beat A&M. Narrow loss to Texas. Blew out SMU. Barely scraped by UTEP. If you want to lose money, bet on their bowl game.

Regular Season Wrap-Up

Team by team season summarry starting with the ACC and Big East.

ACC

Boston College
Record: 9-3
Conference record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 9.45-2.55
Grade: B+
The season ended on a down note with the loss in the Orange Bowl to Miami. If it’s any consolation, the Eagles wouldn’t have won the ACC anyway. Nice non-conference wins at Central Michigan and against BYU that may have flown under the radar.

Clemson
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 10.43-1.57
Grade: C-
After a 7-1 start Clemson wheezed to the finish line losing 3 of 4. Offense totally overmatched in their last 4 games (16.8 points per game versus 42.3 in first 8). Some of that is schedule, but a lot is adjustments made by defensive coordinators. Maybe Tommy Bowden should hire a special teams coach. Pythagorean record bolstered by blowout wins over Florida Atlantic, Temple, Louisiana Tech, and North Carolina.

Duke
Record: 0-12
Conference Record: 0-8
Pythagorean Record: 1.51-10.49
Grade: D+
Blue Devils couldn’t catch a break. Without two blocked kicks (one field goal and one extra point) could have beaten Wake Forest and North Carolina. Also had a chance to beat Miami.

Florida State
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 7.82-4.18
Grade: D-
Beat three teams with winning records. Guess who? Rice, Troy, and Western Michigan. Shut out at home by Wake Forest. Jeff Bowden’s resignation about 3 years over due.

Georgia Tech
Record: 9-4
Conference Record: 7-1
Pythagorean Record: 9.12-3.88
Grade: B
Season was quite good until two weeks ago. How bad is Taylor Bennett if Reggie Ball is the best you have at the quarterback position? Just amazingly inaccurate.

Maryland
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 5-3
Pythagorean Record: 5.55-6.45
Grade: B
Terrapins not as good as their record—augmented by an amazing 6-1 record in close games. Expect some regression next season in that department, but in the here and now the Terps are bowling for the first time since 2003. If you would have told a Maryland fan in late November of 2000 that Ralph Friedgen would have taken the Terps to 4 bowl games in 6 years, including an outright ACC title, and a low-water mark of 5-6, I think they’d have taken it.

Miami
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 3-5
Pythagorean Record: 7.77-4.23
Grade: D
The Miami offense was terrible in conference play (15.9 points per game), but the defense is still strong. Miami was also hurt by a poor record in close games (3-4). Give credit to Larry Coker for having the ‘Canes up for their Thanksgiving affair against Boston College. Whoever comes in to coach will inherit a very talented defense and won’t be far from returning the ‘Canes to the top of the division.

North Carolina
Record: 3-9
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 2.67-9.33
Grade: D+
Give credit to John Bunting for keeping the team together after a poor start. Had a real chance to beat Wake Forest (lost 24-17) and Georgia Tech (7-0), and won their final two against NC State and Duke. Will Butch Davis turn the program around? Stay tuned.

North Carolina State
Record: 3-9
Conference Record: 2-6
Pythagorean Record: 4.46-7.54
Grade: D
So much for Daniel Evans. After winning his first two starts (one on a fluky play), he lost his last 7. Pack hurt by a 3-6 record in close games so expect some improvement in the luck department next year. Amato leaves Raleigh with a 25-31 record in conference play.

Virginia
Record: 5-7
Conference Record: 4-4
Pythagorean Record: 4.82-7.18
Grade: C+
Al Groh’s best coaching job? After a 1-3 start, with the lone win over Wyoming thanks to a blocked extra point, Cavs rallied to finish 5-4, and even in conference play. On the bright side, Groh finally proved the pundits right by finishing ahead of Florida State and Miami.

Virginia Tech
Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 6-2
Pythagorean Record: 11.03-0.97
Grade: A-
Rumors of their demise were greatly exaggerated in mid-October. Since the thumping at Boston College, they have given up 29 points in 6 games (never more than 10) and posted 2 shutouts. In that span they whipped both Clemson and Wake Forest.

Wake Forest
Record: 11-2
Conference Record: 6-2
Pythagorean Record: 9.46-3.54
Grade: A+
Best season in Wake Forest history and the first ACC championship since 1970 (second all time). The team didn’t do much wrong except bungle a snap that led to a loss to Clemson.

Big East

Cincinnati
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 4-3
Pythagorean Record: 6.48-5.52
Grade: B+
4 of the Bearcats' losses were to teams in the top 15 (Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and West Virginia). Probably had too good a season as Mark Dantonio is off to Michigan State. Two bowl games in 3 years for Dantonio. Not too shabby.

Connecticut
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 1-6
Pythagorean Record: 4.39-7.61
Grade: C-
Victories over Rhode Island, Army, Indiana, and Pittsburgh. Lost to navy by 24. Not much has gone right since the Motor City bowl win over Toledo in 2004.

Louisville
Record: 11-1
Conference Record: 6-1
Pythagorean Record: 10.60-1.40
Grade: A-
If not for the offsides against Rutgers on the field goal attempt, could be headed to BCS Championship Game. They’ll have to settle for Big East Championship and a trip to the Orange Bowl. And Bobby Petrino hasn’t even been mentioned in any job vacancies.

Pittsburgh
Record: 6-6
Conference Record: 2-5
Pythagorean Record: 8.23-3.77
Grade: C-
Closed with 5 straight losses, only one of which was really close (Connecticut). Finished 6-6 despite a stellar season from Tyler Palko. Pythagorean record boosted by crushing The Citadel, Toledo, and Central Florida in non-conference action (combined score of 148-16).

Rutgers
Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 5-2
Pythagorean Record: 10.03-1.97
Grade: A-
Would have been an A++++++ if not for the loss at Cincinnati. Proved they can hang with the big boys by beating Louisville and nearly upsetting West Virginia. Now comes the hard part, can they maintain? Bowl game will tell a lot about this team. Will Schiano have them motivated to play a mid-level Big 12 school (Kansas State) when they were oh so close to heading to a BCS bowl?

South Florida
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 4-3
Pythagorean Record: 7.760-3.24
Grade: B+
Built on last season’s first ever bowl appearance with a follow up. Now looking for first bowl win. Some day, the nation may realize South Florida is one of the best-coached teams in the country. True freshman quarterback, Matt Grothe, is very athletic (9 rushing touchdowns) and looks to have a bright future.

Syracuse
Record: 4-8
Conference Record: 1-6
Pythagorean Record: 3.68-8.32
Grade: C
There was improvement; you have to give the Orange that, as they quadrupled their win total from last season. Next season will be very telling. Will there be further improvement, regression, or are the Orange treading water?

West Virginia
Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 5-2
Pythagorean Record: 9.83-2.17
Grade: B+
Another 10-win season for West Virgina. They seem to be in good hands under Rich Rodriguez. Need to fix the defense for White and Slaton’s junior season if they want to compete for the national title. In conference play they scored the most points, but allowed the fifth most points (tied with Syracuse and ahead of only Pittsburgh and Connecticut).

Championship Saturday

ACC

This had to be what the powers that be in the ACC expected when they gave the all clear for expansion a few years ago. The only way this match up could be more underwhelming for the TV execs would be if Wake was taking on Duke. As it stand, either Wake or Georgia Tech will earn an Orange Bowl bid sometime Saturday afternoon. While neither is likely the best team in the ACC (than honor belongs to the Hokies who have turned their season completely around since the stunning pasting at the hands of Boston College.), the Deacons or Jackets will not be an embarrassment to the BCS like Pitt was 2 seasons ago.

While Riley Skinner has been the story for the Demon Deacons, their turnaround from 4-7 to 10-2 also has a lot to do with the improved defense. With the exception of the Clemson and Maryland games, Wake has done an excellent job of stopping the run, allowing a shade more than 3 yards per rush. They have also been opportunistic, picking off 20 passes and forcing 23 fumbles. They have actually been a little unlucky when it come to fumble recoveries, only falling on the ball 7 of those 23 times (the average is about 50%).

For Georgia Tech, the story is the same as it has been for the past few seasons. The Jackets are carried by their defense (always in the top quartile in the NCAA under Jon Tenuta), but are held back by inconsistency at the quarterback position. Reggie Ball has played better in this his senior year, throwing a career high 20 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. However, he is completing only 46% of his passes. The Jackets do have an improved running game led by Tashard Choice and his 1200+ yards.

Prediction: In their recent history, Georgia Tech has proven they can beat anyone (except Georgia) and lose to anyone. In what should be a closely contested battle, Wake will edge Georgia Tech and win their first conference championship since 1970. Skinner’s number of pass attempts in the Sunday morning box score will tell the story of this game. In Wake’s losses to Clemson and Virginia Tech, and their near (should have) loss to Duke, Skinner threw 82 passes (27.3 per game). In the other 8 games he has thrown 119 passes (14.9 per game). If Skinner’s pass total climbs very much above 20, the game will probably not have gone the Deacons way.

SEC

With so much drama in the SEC, it’s kinda hard being Run DMC. Great nickname for a great player (courtesy of Mark May). Darren McFadden and Felix Jones should be poised for a big game on the turf of the Georgia Dome. McFadden and Jones will get their yards, but the question remains: Can the Razorbacks throw the ball (besides the throws from the ‘Wildcat’ formation by McFadden)? Prior to the calamity against LSU (3 for 17 for 29 yards a pick and a touchdown), Casey Dick had actually played well since taking over for Mitch Mustain against South Carolina. In the 3 games leading up to the LSU loss, against South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi State (3 pretty good defenses), Dick had completed 57% of his passes for 494 yards (9.7 per pass) with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. While no one will confuse him with Colt Brennan or Brady Quinn, Dick is a competent D-I quarterback.

On the other sideline, the Florida Gators have been carried by their defense and a good bit of luck. Despite the fact that in Meyer’s two previous stops, the offense dramatically improved in his second season, the Gators appear to have actually regressed. Last season, the Gators averaged 28.6 points per game. This season they are averaging 28.1 points per game. The difference is more pronounced in conference play. Last season the Gators averaged 25.6 points in conference play. This season that number is down to 22.3 points per game. This season the Gators are 5-1 in close games (decided by 8 or less). I’m counting the Auburn game in this analysis since it was close until the final play. The Gators seem to have been living on borrowed time for a few weeks now, winning 4 of their last 5 by a touchdown or less.

Prediction: Arkansas gets back into the good graces of the AP voters and helps the nation avoid a small controversy by beating Florida. Even if the Gators win, they won’t deserve a spot over So Cal or Michigan in the BCS title game.

Big XII

Believe it or not, it’s been 7 years since Nebraska last appeared in the Big12 Championship Game. That 1999 Huskers squad dominated the Texas Longhorns 22-6 to game a measure of revenge for two separate losses that probably cost the Huskers two chances for a national championship (in 1996 and earlier in 1999). This season, the Huskers are slight underdogs against an Oklahoma team that if not for a bad call against Oregon may have a case for the #2 spot in the BCS.

Nebraska is completely made over from their last North Division title team. Long gone are the option, run-first Huskers. In their place is a dynamic passing attack, coupled with a still strong running game. Senior quarterback Zac Taylor has 6 times as many touchdown passes (24) as interceptions. If only he’d start throwing sidearm, yell at his receivers after every play, and throw 5 picks in the biggest game of his life, he’d be the reincarnation of Rich Gannon.

The Oklahoma Sooners return to the title game after a one year absence. They are making their 5 title game appearance in 7 years. To say Bob Stoops has owned the Big 12 South is an understatement. Don’t be fooled though, this Sooners squad is not quite as strong as the one that ran roughshod over the Big 12 from 2000-2004. During that span, Oklahoma outscored its opponents by nearly 22 points per game. This season Oklahoma has won its games by a little over 14 per contest. Still a good figure to be sure, just not the juggernaut they were a few years ago.

When Adrian Peterson went down in the sixth game of the season, Oklahoma stood at 4-2 with 4 games left against teams with winning records, including 3 on the road. To say the Sooners have circled the wagons is an understatement. Since Peterson got hurt at the end of the sixth game, that makes it very easy to analyze the Sooners rush attack with and without him. In the 6 games A.P. played in the Sooners averaged 4.66 yards per rush. In the six games since his injury, the Sonners have averaged 4.57 yards per rush. Is A.P. a great player? Yes. But is he indispensable to the Sooners offense? No.

Prediction: The Sooners are not the dominant force they were just two years ago. The primary reason is they lack the superstar quarterback they featured in Jason White and Josh Heupel. Paul Thompson is steady, but not in their league. Still, the Sooners are a well-coached, defensive-minded team. They’ll beat the Huskers rather easily.

Championship Preview: USA, USA, USA

Flashback to a decade ago. Southern Miss and Houston finished tied atop the newly formed Conference USA. Houston owned the tiebreaker thanks to their head to head victory over the Golden Eagles and went to the Liberty Bowl. Southern Miss was forced to stay home for the holidays despite their 8-3 record and road victory over Georgia (their other two losses came at Alabama and Florida State). With the glut of current bowl games, both schools will be participating in the postseason. Since that inaugural 1996 season, Southern Miss has been a consistent player in the Conference USA race—winning championships in 1997, 1999, and 2003, posting a winning record every season (including this season’s 8-4 mark), and participating in 8 bowl games. The constant in that span has been head coach Jeff Bower. In fact he’s been with the program since 1990 and if he’s not careful, he could become more synonymous with Southern Miss football than Brett Favre. It’s been a different story for the Houston Cougars. They have yet to add a second championship to their ledger, finished with a losing record 6 times, and played in only 2 bowl games. In fact, as recently as 2001, the Cougars finished winless. Things changed in 2003 when Houston hired head coach and former Cougar player Art Briles. Briles was an outstanding high school coach, who won 4 state titles in football-crazy Texas. In 2003, the Cougars, coming off 3 consecutive losing seasons, finished 7-6 and participated in the Hawaii Bowl. They slumped to 3-8 in 2004, and then improved to 6-6 with a Fort Worth Bowl appearance in 2005. This is by far Briles best team at Houston. The Cougars are 9-3, with a 3-game losing streak sandwiched between an opening 4-0 start and a closing 5-0 salvo. The three losses were all by 4 points or less. They lost by 1 to Miami in the Orange Bowl, by 3 in an inexplicable home loss to Louisiana-Lafayette, and by 4 at Southern Miss.

Checking out the box score from October 14th reveals a very closely contested (not surprising given the final score). Houston out gained Southern Miss by about 50 yards and both teams turned the ball over once. However, one play early in the game helped Southern Miss take an early lead and played a huge role in the games outcome. On a fourth down play late in the first quarter from their own 31-yard line, Houston long-snapper Norby Juist snapped the ball over punter Justin Laird’s head. Laird tracked the ball down some 30 yards later at his own one-yard line. Southern Miss took over at the one-yard line and in short order made it 7-0. Had Laird been able to kick the ball out of the endzone, instead of recover it at the one, the outcome of the game could have been quite different.

This game should come down to the play of the two quarterbacks. Houston’s senior quarterback Kevin Kolb had a terrific season throwing 25 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions while completing over 68% of his passes. On the other sideline, Southern Miss quarterback Jeremy Young is not quite as accomplished a passer (11 touchdown passes, 5 interceptions, 57% completion percentage), but is still a solid quarterback.

Prediction: Houston lost the first game thanks to a high snap on a punt and the Golden Eagles' homefield advantage. The neutral site and advantage at the quarterback position should allow Houston to win their second Conference USA championship.

Championship Preview: The Return of the MAC

After last season, it appeared Frank Solich could be destined to follow the Fred Akers/Ray Perkins career path after getting canned by Nebraska in 2003. The Ohio Bobcats struggled through yet another losing season in 2005 (their 8th in 9 years) and actually saw their point differential decline from 2004 (-144 versus -50), though their record remained the same (4-7). The Bobcats did eke out a signature win on national television against Pitt, but other than that signs of progress were few and far between. Last season the Bobcats were less offensive than an episode of The Waltons as they averaged a mere 17.5 points per game. Their quarterbacks, led by Austen Everson managed only 6 touchdown passes and completed a scant 45% of their passes. The running game was solid averaging nearly 4.5 yards per rush while being led by Kalvin McRae and his 1100+ yards (5.5 per attempt). The defense did not contribute much towards winning either allowing 30.5 points per game. Opposing quarterbacks completed nearly 63% of their passes and averaged over 8 yards per pass. They held their own against the run allowing only 4.3 yards per rush. Special teams were both good and bad. Ohio returned both a punt and kickoff for touchdowns on the year, but also allowed two of each. Plus their kicker only converted on 4 of 9 field goals on the year (Matthew Miller was 3of 4 while Brooks Rossman was 1 of 5).

This season has been a different story as the Bobcats have reeled off 7 straight victories en route to a 9-3 regular season. Two of their losses were non-conference tilts on the road against Rutgers and Missouri, and the other was an early season home loss to Bowling Green. The Bobcats also beat another BCS school this season, narrowly edging Illinois in Champaign 20-17. How have the Bobcats done it? For starters the offense has improved, scoring 21.6 points per game. Their quarterbacks, again led by Everson (a senior) are completing over half their passes (55%). The touchdown total is still low (8), but so is the interception count (11). The running game has regressed a bit, averaging only 4.2 yards per rush. McRae again has over 1100 yards, but only averages 5 yards per attempt. The real difference for Ohio is their defense. The defense has allowed only 16.2 points per contest. If we remove the two games against Rutgers and Missouri, that number drops to 13.9. Opposing quarterbacks completed less than half their passes (49.8%) and are averaging only 5.3 yards per pass. Those are dramatic improvements from 2005. The run defense has also improved allowing just under 4 yards per rush. Special teams have also improved. The Bobcats have brought one punt back for 6, and have allowed no special teams touchdowns on the year. Their kicking game has also improved. Kicker Matt Lasher has converted 12 of his 17 field goal attempts.

The team on the other sideline tomorrow night has also improved significantly from last season. Central Michigan is also led by a coach who achieved great success at another school. Brian Kelly spent 13 seasons at Division II Grand Valley State and won 2 national titles. He joined the Chippewas prior to the 2004 season and his teams have shown improvement each year. They were 4-7 in 2004, 6-5 in 2005, and are currently sitting at 8-4. 3 of the Chippewas 4 losses this season have come to BCS schools. They fell at home to Boston College 31-24 at home on the opening Thursday of the season. The following week they lost to Michigan in the Big House, and in late September they lost a shootout at Kentucky by 45-36. Their only conference loss came 2 weeks ago at Northern Illinois.

The Chippewas are a very different team from the Bobcats. Central Michigan depends on its offense, not its defense to win games. The offense scores nearly 30 per game (29.5) and allows exactly 24 per contest. Led by freshman quarterback Dan LeFevour, the Chippewas have a passing attack Ohio can only dream of possessing. Chippewa quarterbacks have completed nearly 62% of their passes and have more than twice as many touchdown passes (24) as interceptions (10). Their running game is much like Ohio’s (though not quite as good), solid if unspectacular, but features more of a committee approach than a featured back. On defense, the Chippewas are good against the run, allowing only 3.8 yards per rush, but are routinely gouged by the pass. Opposing quarterbacks have completed over 61% of their passes and nearly doubled up their interceptions (12) with touchdown passes (24). On special teams, Central Michigan is pretty awful at punt returns (under 6 yards per return compared to over 14 for Ohio), but pretty good at punt coverage (allowing under 5 yards per return). They have run a kickoff back this season and have converted 10 of 16 field goals.

With both teams having accepted bowl bids (Ohio to the GMAC and Central Michigan to the Motor City), this game is solely for the banner, the trophy, and the rings. This game comes down to two matchups, one strength versus strength, and the other weakness versus weakness. Ohio’s strength is its pass defense and Central Michigan’s strength is its passing offense. If Ohio can shut down the Chippewas passing attack, they can pull off the minor upset. If not, the Chippewas could make this ugly. Central Michigan’s weakness is its pass defense. Fortunately for them, passing the football is not something Ohio does well. Consequently, there is very little chance Ohio runs away with this game. To me this game is a toss up, but I understand why Central Michigan is a three point favorite. If Central Michigan’s passing game is on, they could go up early and cruise to an easy victory. Ohio doesn’t have the firepower to cruise to a victory. If Ohio does manage to win this game it will be close, unless Central Michigan simply implodes and turns the ball over a ton.

Prediction: In a close game, I like the Ohio defense to put the clamps (somewhat) on a very good Central Michigan offense. The Bobcats win a defensive struggle.

The Best Wake Forest Team Ever?

Since my alma mater is in the midst of a special season, I decided to take a look back and see if this is indeed Wake Forest's finest gridiron squadron. So set back and take a stroll down memory lane as I summarize each Wake Forest team that finished with a winning record since 1970.

1970
Record: 6-5
Conference Record: 5-1
Point Differential: -50
Pythagorean Record: 4.02-6.98
Record Against Winning Teams: 2-4
D-I Wins: 6
Opponent's Record: 71-50-3 .585
Record in Close Games: 2-1

Most Wake fans know the 1970 season as our first and thus far only conference championship. What most fans don't know is that despite being ACC champions, the Demon Deacons were not invited to a bowl game. The ACC as a whole was down in 1970 (sound familiar?) with only North Carolina being invited to participate in postseason play. Wake's schedule strength is fortified by non-conference games against Nebraska (11-0-1), Florida State (7-4), Tennessee (11-1), and Houston (8-3).

1971
Record: 6-5
Conference Record: 2-4
Point Differential: +40
Pythagorean Record: 6.80-4.20
Record Against Winning Teams: 1-2
D-I Wins: 6
Opponent's Record: 49-72 .405
Record in Close Games: 2-3

The ACC was once again down in 1971, but this time the Deacs couldn't take advantage losing several winnable conference games and once again staying home for the holidays. Head coach Cal Stoll did parlay his consecutive winning seasons at Wake into a gig at Minnesota where he lasted for 7 seasons never winning fewer than 4 or more than 7 games.

1979
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 3-2
Point Differential: -43
Pythagorean Record: 4.84-7.16
Record Against Winning Teams: 5-4
D-I Wins: 8
Opponent's Record: 76-57-3 .570
Record in Close Games: 8-1

I believe the expression is smoke and mirrors. The Deacons did beat several good teams--Auburn (8-3), Maryland (7-4), and North Carolina (8-3-1). However, take a look at than unbelievable record in close games. The Deacons caught every possible break in 1979 and were rewarded with a trip to the Tangerine Bowl, where they were slaughtered by a mediocre LSU team (7-5). Head coach John Mackovic stayed one more season before seeing the writing on the wall.

1984
Record: 6-5
Conference Record: 3-4
Point Differential: -27
Pythagorean Record: 4.70-6.30
Record Against Winning Teams: 0-5
D-I Wins: 3
Opponent's Record: 48-39-4 .549
Record in Close Games: 2-1

Al Groh's lone winning record with the Deacs is built on the foundation of three non-DIA wins--Richmond, William and Mary, and Appalachian State.

1987
Record: 7-4
Conference Record: 4-3
Point Differential: +16
Pythagorean Record: 6.04-4.96
Record Against Winning Teams: 0-3
D-I Wins: 5
Opponent's Record: 51-51 .500
Record in Close Games: 4-0

Another down year for the ACC. Only Virginia (8-4) and Clemson (10-2) went bowling. The Deacs couldn't go because they had only 5 D-IA wins. Deacs actually began the season 5-0 before stumbling to the finish line when the schedule toughened up.

1988
Record: 6-4-1
Conference Record: 4-3
Point Differential: +44
Pythagorean Record: 6.59-4.41
Record Against Winning Teams: 1-4
D-I Wins: 4
Opponent's Record: 50-38-3 .566
Record in Close Games: 2-1-1

Another year, another pair of non-DIA wins (and one tie). The Deacs lone win over a team with a winning record was against the OBC in his second season at Duke.

1992
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 4-4
Point Differential: +6
Pythagorean Record: 6.16-5.84
Record Against Winning Teams: 0-4
D-I Wins: 7
Opponent's Record: 66-59-1 .528
Record in Close Games: 4-0

The story of the 1992 Independence Bowl champions is that they beat the teams they should. No wins against winning teams, but also no losses to teams with losing records. The buzz word for the 1992 season was resiliency. After a 1-3 start, the Deacs rattled off 6 straight wins before succumbing to NC State in the regular season finale. In the bowl game, they fell behind early to Oregon before rebounding for a thrilling 39-35 victory. The 1992 season marked the end of line for one of college football's finest and most underrated coaches, Bill Dooley. 3 winning seasons in 6 years at Wake--not too bad. He also enjoyed success at two other non-traditional (at the time) powers in North Carolina and Virginia Tech.

1999
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 3-5
Point Differential: +57
Pythagorean Record: 7.67-4.33
Record Against Winning Teams: 1-2
D-I Wins: 7
Opponent's Record: 65-73 .471
Record in Close Games: 2-1

What could have been. Consider this: Wake finished 7-5 in Jim Caldwell's penultimate season, and yet lost to Duke (3-8) and at home to Maryland (5-6). To get bowl eligible, it took a dramatic upset over a top-20 Georgia Tech team on Senior Fifth day. It all ended well though, with a Christmas Day win over Arizona State in the Aloha Classic.

2001
Record: 6-5
Conference Record: 3-5
Point Differential: -19
Pythagorean Record: 5.09-6.91
Record Against Winning Teams: 2-5
D-I Wins: 5
Opponent's Record: 65-55 .542
Record in Close Games: 5-4

Jim Grobe certainly made a difference in his first season at the helm. Fresh off a 2-9 season, the Deacs matched their 2000 win total in the first two games, and seemed to be in every game (9 of 11 were decided by 7 points or fewer and 10 of 11 were decided by 10 points or less). Best moment of the season? Either the first win in Charlottesville since 1981 or the comeback win over a Tar Heel team with Julius Peppers.

2002
Record: 7-6
Conference Record: 3-5
Point Differential: +29
Pythagorean Record: 7.15-5.85
Record Against Winning Teams: 3-6
D-I Wins: 7
Opponent's Record: 87-81 .518
Record in Close Games: 4-3

More of the same for Grobe in his second season. No terrible losses, as all of them came to teams with winning records, and lots of close games. Beat a pretty good Oregon team in the Seattle Bowl to boot.

2006
Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 6-2
Point Differential: +95
Pythagorean Record: 8.73-3.27
Record Against Winning Teams: 2-2
D-I Wins: 9
Opponent's Record: 59-72 .450
Record in Close Games: 4-0

Is this the best Wake Forest team? Do Pi Phi's like to party? This is far and away the best Wake Forest team. They are aided by a relatively soft schedule and unblemished record in close games, but their point differential is legit. Wake's other good teams never had a point differential larger than 57 and usually (with the exception of 2001 and 2002--also Grobe-coached teams) blew games to teams that finished with losing records. Oh yeah, and let's not forget that 6-0 road record. Regardless of what happens in Jacksonville or in the bowl game, this is the best team in Wake's storied history.

Dan's the Man

Saturday evening on the plains of Iowa, a quality coach most fans wouldn't recognize quietly went out a winner to cap a disappointing season. Iowa State upset the Missouri Tigers 21-16 to send Dan McCarney out on a positive note. The second year in a row that a coach that reinvigorated a program has salvaged a season with an upset of Missouri. McCarney resigned earlier this season as the Cyclones were in the midst of a sour 4-8 campaign. However, after the game, you would have thought the Cyclones had won the national championship. McCarney was carried off the field by his players in a manner befitting a man who has done so much for the Iowa State program. You won't find his name at the top of the career wins list (he only has 56) and you won't be awed by his spiffy winning percentage (.397), but that should not diminish what he has accomplished in Ames.

In McCarney's 12 seasons at Iowa State, his teams have a combined record of 56-85 (.397). By itself that is not terribly impressive. But consider in the 12 seasons before McCarney's arrival the Cyclones were a combined 45-82-5 (.360) with just 2 winning seasons, no bowl appearances, and a winless season just before McCarney took over. It took McCarney a while to raise the program as they Cyclones never won more than 4 games during his first 5 seasons. But in season 6 the Cyclones turned the corner. Over the next 7 years, Iowa State would win at least 7 games 5 times, participate in 5 bowl games (winning 2), and tie for the Big 12 North title (2004). This tie gave the Cyclones their first championship (co or otherwise) since the Taft administration (1912).

And what about that little rivalry game against Iowa? When McCarney arrived in 1995, the Cyclones had not beaten the Hawkeyes since 1982. McCarney lost his first 4 contests to the in-state rivals, but rebounded to lead his team to 6 wins in the last 8 games in the series. His first victory over Iowa in 1998 was probably the most special since it was their first win in the series since 1982 and the last time he would coach against the legendary Hayden Fry.

All in all, the Cyclones have had a less than stellar history with 9 bowl appearances (5 with McCarney) and only 2 bowl wins (both with McCarney). Any success the program enjoys on the gridiron going forward, will have McCarney to thank for laying the foundation. McCarney made a 4-8 season a disappointment and not an aspiration

Hoot, There It Is

With all due respect to Rutgers and Wake Forest, there is another outstanding turnaround taking place that has gone way under the radar. Deep in the heart of Texas--Houston to be exact. There, the Rice Owls under first year coach Todd Graham have reeled off 4 victories in a row (3 on the road) to even their record at 5-5. With two home games remaining against East Carolina and Southern Methodist, the Owls have a real chance at becoming bowl-eligible--a feat that two months ago would have seemed impossible. Here's a short list of the obstacles Graham faced in his first year at the helm.

1) Rice is the second smallest Division IA football school behind only the University of Tulsa.

2) In the past 2 decades, Rice has had exactly 5 winning seasons--a pair of 6-5 and 7-4 campaigns, and one 8-4 year in 2001. In that same time frame, they've won 3 or fewer games 7 times.

3) Under their former coach Ken Hatfield, Rice ran an option attack to compensate for their disparity in talent. Under Graham, the Owls have switched to a more traditional pass-oriented offense, something that usually takes a few seasons to integrate.

4) The Owls were 1-10 last season.

5) This season, the Owls non-conference slate included road games against Florida State and UCLA as well as a neutral (yeah right) site game against Texas. Not surprisingly, the Owls went 0-3 in those games lsing by an average of more than 34 points.

What is surprising is that the Owls are 4-2 in conference play and with two games still to go, they could finish in a tie for first in Conference USA's Western Division (Houston has the tiebreaker so they can't play in the title game). The Owl's probably aren't as good as their record since 3 of their last 4 wins have come by 6 points or fewer, but that's a small quibble. So let's take a moment and appreciate what Todd Graham has done and pull for the Owls to make their first bowl appearance since the 1961 Bluebonnet Bowl.

And one last thing. You gotta love these Philadelphia Eagles lookalike helmets.

Revisiting Close Games

Several months ago I blogged about winning close games. The results show that a team's record in close games is not consistent from year to year. There does not seem to be an ability to win close games that carries over from season to season. However, there is another side to that coin, or more specifically two other sides (if that makes any sense). Do teams in a given season possess a certain ability to win close games for that year? To answer this question I perfromed two seperate regression analyses.

The first regression analysis involved seperating the 2005 season into two halves. The first half was each team's record in the first half of its schedule. The second half is the teams record in the second half of its schedule. If a team played an odd number of games, I included the extra game in the teams first half. For example, if a team played 11 games, the first half would be games 1-6 and the second half would be games 7-11. I then looked at every Division IA team's record in the first half of its schedule. I them compared this winning percentage in close games to the team's winning percentage in close games in the second half of their schedule to see if a team's record in close games in the first half of the schedule has any predictive value for the team's record in close games in the second half. Teams that did not play a close game in either the first or second half of their schedule (or both) were not included. With a sample size of 100 teams, the r squared value for this analysis is .0023. This means that a teams record in close games in the first half of its schedule has almost no value in predicting its record in close games in the second half of its schedule.

The second regression analysis involved separating each Division IA team's schedule, but in a slightly different manner. Instead of dividing the schedules into first and second half, I divided the games into even and odd. Game one goes into the odd pile, game two into the even, game three into the odd and so on. I then looked at each team's record in the odd games and compared it to their record in the even games to see if a team's record in close odd games was of any use in predicting its record in close even games. Teams that did not play a close game in either any odd or even games (or any at all) were excluded. With a sample size of 106, the r squared value for this analysis is .0007. This means that a teams record in close games in odd games has no value in predicting its record in close games in even games.

There is no ability to win close games (at least not in college football) whether it is across seasons or within seasons. Close games are like coin flips. Its not uncommon to get 3 or 4 head tosses in a row, but eventually things will even out and a few tails will be come up consecutively.

Home Cooking

Rutgers is pretty much a lock to cover the 7 point spread against Louisville tomorrow, and will probably win the game outright. Here's Louisville's home/road splits since 2003.

2003 Home
Record: 5-1
Points per Game: 36.2
Points Allowed per Game: 24.3
Close Games (decided by 8 points or less): 0

2003 Road
Record: 4-2
Points per Game: 34.2
Points Allowed per Game: 27.7
Close Games: 3

2004 Home
Record: 5-0
Points per Game: 50.6
Points Allowed per Game: 10.2
Close Games: 0

2004 Road
Record: 5-1
Points per Game: 50.0
Points Allowed per Game: 24.2
Close Games: 2

2005 Home
Record: 6-0
Points per Game: 55.3
Points Allowed per Game: 15.5
Close Games: 0

2005 Road
Record: 3-2
Points per Game: 33.0
Points Allowed per Game: 31.4
Close Games: 2

2006 Home
Record: 4-0
Points per Game: 39.3
Points Allowed per game: 21.5
Close Games: 1

2006 Road
Record: 4-0
Points per Game: 39.5
Points Allowed per Game: 9.0
Close Games: 0

At home Louisville has been nigh-invulnerable going 20-1 in nearly 4 seasons. On the road they have been a different team, albeit one that still sports a stellar 16-5 record. At home, Louisville has played only one nail-biter--the game against Cincinnati earlier this season. On the road, Louisville has had 7 games comes down to the wire. Things do appear to be changing this season as Louisville has actually been more impressive on the road. Ah, but check the schedule. Every home game this season has been against a team that currently sports a winning record. The best team they have played on the road was a mediocre Kansas State team. Their road slate also includes a date against Temple (a 62-0 thrashing that skews the data). Against teams with winning records at home, Louisville is 7-1 since 2003. Against winning teams on the road, Louisville is only 3-4, with 2 of the wins coming this season against Kansas State and Middle Tennessee State. And what ofheir most famous road setback? That South Florida team was only 6-6.

Three Wise Men

Baylor, Vanderbilt, and Wake Forest have a lot in common on the gridiron. They are all private schools in big time conferences. They are all located in the southern part of the United States. They all have very little history of success in football. And most importantly, they each have a quality head coach in various stages of rebuilding and reinvigorating their once struggling programs. While Wake Forest, and by extension Jim Grobe, has gotten most of the exposure (and rightfully so) thanks to their 8-1 start, don't sleep on Guy Morriss at Baylor and Bobby Johnson at Vanderbilt. I decided to see how the fortunes of each program has changed since the new men arrived on the scene. Grobe is currently in his 6th season at Wake, Johnson in his 5th at Vandym and Morriss in his 4th at Baylor. This post will compare each coaches' record at his respective school in several areas against the school's same record in those areas in the coaches' preceding years. Since Grobe is in his sixth season at Wake, his record will be compared to the previous six seasons before his arrival. In the same vein we'll look at the previous 5 before Johnson's arrival at Vandy and the previous four at Baylor for Guy Morriss. First up, Jim Grobe.

Grobe Era (2001-2006) Pre-Grobe (1995-2000)
Record: 34-33 (.507) 21-46 (.313)
Conference Record: 17-28 (.378) 10-38 (.208)
Winning Seasons: 3 1
Bowl Games: 2 1
Losses by >20: 6 21
Against Winning Teams: 12-27 (.308) 3-29 (.094)
Scoring Margin per Game: 0 -9.96

Grobe's resume is very impressive. The one stat that really jumps out at me is the blowout losses. In his nearly 6 seasons at the helm, the Demon Deacons have suffered only 6 losses by 20 or more points. In Jim Caldwell's final season (2000), the Deacons suffered 5 such defeats.

Johnson Era (2002-2006) Pre-Johnson (1997-2001)
Record: 15-41 (.268) 15-40 (.273)
Conference Record: 6-32 (.158) 4-36 (.100)
Winning Seasons: 0 0
Bowl Games: 0 0
Losses by >20: 12 18
Against Winning Teams: 1-31 (.031) 1-34 (.029)
Scoring Margin per Game: -6.16 -10.22

The Commodores' improvement hasn't been as dramatic, but anyone who has watched a Vandy game the past two seasons knows they are much more competitive. Johnson already has 50% more conference victories, and he still has two more chances to get win number 7 this year. The blowout losses are also down and who can forget the dramatic victory over Tennessee last season for the first time since what seems like Reconstruction. The 'Dores haven't made it to a bowl game yet, but they'll get to one either in 2007 or 2008. Look out for exciting sophomore quarterback Chris Nickson, who has been quietly improving since opening the season in the Big House.

Morris Era (2003-2006) Pre-Morris Era (1999-2002)
Record: 15-29 (.341) 9-36 (.200)
Conference Record: 7-23 (.233) 1-32 (.030)
Winning Seasons: 0 0
Bowl Games: 0 0
Losses by >20: 17 29
Against Winning Teams: 4-22 (.154) 2-26 (.071)
Scoring Margin per Game: -12.30 -21.80

In conference play, Morris has certainly been the miracle worker. The Bears have won twice as many road conference games (2) in Morris' tenure as total conference games in the four seasons before his arrial. Those two road wins are also the only two road victories in the Bears' nearly 11 seasons in the Big XII. This season, the Bears implemented a new Texas Tech-lite offense and after some early struggles (21.2 points per in the first five games) the Bears offense has come of age (28.6 points per in the last five). The Bears also have the pieces to be a bowl team in the near future if they catch a few breaks.

For schools like Wake, Vandy, and Baylor, there is a such thing as a moral victory. As a Wake fan, even when we were busy going 4-7 the past two seasons, it was still better than being slaughtered in half our games as was often the case in the mid 1990's. Consistently winning 8-9 games is not the goal, nor should it be at these schools. The goal should be playing competitive football (as all three schools have been) and every few seasons being in position to go to a bowl game and possibly more, as is the case for Wake Forest this season.