Binary Spread Record: Over-Performing

One of my favorite topics to discuss on this blog in the betting line. The betting line is a mix of bookmaker ‘power ratings’ adjusted for venue and market corrections based on bets placed that combine to give even the casual fan a decent idea of which team will win a particular football game. But what happens if the betting line continues to make incorrect calls about a certain team? And by incorrect, I mean not just in reference to covering the spread, but actually winning the game. If a team pulls off a lot of upsets or is upset a lot, what tends to happen the next season? Being a resident of Columbia, South Carolina, I have a particular curiosity about teams like this.

The hometown Gamecocks, a team I am rather ambivalent about, are getting a decent amount of preseason love by the media and especially the hometown radio station (107.5 The Game). The Game is not quite the propaganda machine of Fox News, but their takes are generally pretty rosy even when the team is struggling. Vegas is more lukewarm toward the Gamecocks’ prospects with an over/under win total of 7.5. Using their surprising performance last season as a frame of reference, what should we realistically expect from the Gamecocks in 2018? To begin answering that question, let’s review South Carolina’s schedule from 2017. Below I have included their entire 2017 regular season schedule with the venue, opponent, spread, and game result (straight up, not against the spread). The final column (Net) rewards the Gamecocks when their game result differs positively from the spread and penalizes them when their game result differs negatively. Major thanks to Phil Steele for providing spread data in his annual magazine.

Using the spread as a binary (win or loss) and not probabilistic predictor, the Gamecocks ‘should’ have won five games last season. They won eight. They pulled four outright upsets (NC State, Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee) and lost once as a favorite (Kentucky) giving them eight total wins and a net differential of +3.

I looked at every team from the previous three seasons (2014-2016) that exceeded their binary spread record by at least three games. I then looked at how much their win total changed the next season. The results are listed below.

Eighteen teams met the +3 criteria and two thirds of them (twelve) saw their win total decline the following season with the average team declining by about 1.4 wins. What might be driving these declines? For starters, these teams were probably fortunate to win as many games as they did in what I will dub their ‘upset’ season. If a team wins games as an underdog, but continues to be an underdog in their upcoming games, ‘luck’ could be the driving force in their good record. We’ll define luck or good fortune as being on the good side of more random events like turnovers, huge special teams plays, and general clutch play in tight games. Maybe an analyst would describe it as ‘finding a way to win’. You get the idea.

Before we look at all teams that exceeded their binary spread record by at least three games in 2017, I wanted to look at a team that exceeded their preseason expectations significantly, but did not do so by pulling off a lot of upsets.

Fresno State finished 1-11 in 2016 with their lone win coming against an FCS team. Despite hiring an established coach in Jeff Tedford, expectations were muted in 2017. Their preseason win total of 4 reflected a small expected bounce, but not much else. However, the Bulldogs surprised nearly everyone by winning nine regular season games and playing in the Mountain West Championship Game. Let’s take a look at how their schedule played out.

After an exhibition against Incarnate Word, Fresno was cannon fodder for a pair of elite Power Five programs. Relative to the spread, they performed admirably in those two games and found themselves favored in their first three conference games. After alternating an upset of San Diego State with a head-scratching loss to UNLV, Fresno was chalk until they upset Boise State in the regular season finale. While the Plexiglas Principle certainly to applies to teams that make a seismic leap like Fresno State, they may be more disposed to hold onto their gains than a team like South Carolina since most of their wins did not come at the expense of ‘superior’ teams.

As promised, here is a listing of every team from 2017 that exceeded their binary spread record by at least three games. This doesn’t guarantee regression, but keep this in the back of your mind if you plan on backing these teams this season.

Strangers in the Field: IV

The past three summers, I have made a late July trip to Vegas. I made a few bets each time. You can read about those trips here, here, and here. Being a stickler for tradition, as well as a degenerate, I went again this year. This is what I bet on.


Over/Under Win Totals
The premise here is simple. These bets are on teams to either go 'over' or 'under' a baseline win total.

Ball State over 4 wins -105 ($40 to win $38.10)
Ball State went 2-10 last season, losing their final nine regular season games with each loss coming by at least twelve points. In MAC play, they scored a grand total of 10 touchdowns while allowing 45. Both of those numbers ranked dead last in the conference. However, despite those horrific numbers, things are looking up for the Cardinals in 2018. In the MAC APR rundown I posted in April, I went over a few reasons to expect improvement from Ball State, and I'll summarize them again here.
1. The Cardinals suffered numerous injuries last season and can expect better health in 2018.
2. Horrendous MAC defenses have tended to regress (or in this case progress) to the mean the next season.
3. Ball State is unlikely to allow their opponents to score so many non-offensive touchdowns in 2018 (were net -8 in the category last season).
4. 2018 is Mike Neu's third season in charge and teams tend to improve (sometimes significantly in a coaches third season).
Mix all those factors with a relatively low win total, two winnable non-conference home games (Central Connecticut State and Western Kentucky), and almost even money on the betting line and the Cardinals are a solid play.

Central Florida under 9 wins +115 ($30 to win $34.50)
Central Florida nearly burned me last season when they easily exceeded their 7.5 preseason win total, but thanks to a canceled game, the bet was nullified. Surely, with the loss of head coach Scott Frost, four players who were picked in the 2018 NFL draft (the most of any Group of Five team), and general regression to the mean after a historic season, the Knights will fall off somewhat. The Knights hired Josh Heupel to replace Scott Frost as head coach in an effort to keep their dynamic offense in tact, but the Knights are unlikely to average nearly 50 points per game as they did last season. Also, keep a few things about Heupel in mind. While the Missouri Tigers put up insane offensive numbers the second half of last season under his guidance as offensive coordinator, most of those games came against some combination of bad teams, teams in turmoil, or both. Plus, at his alma mater, the offense suddenly got a lot better when he left (of course that also coincided with the arrival of a pretty good player). Suffice to say, a drop off of ten or more points per game should be expected. Couple those factors with a schedule that includes two ACC teams (North Carolina and Pitt) with one coming on the road as well as road conference games against Memphis and South Florida and its easy to see Central Florida losing three games. That would get you a push, and one more would more than double your money.

Coastal Carolina over 4 wins -105 ($40 to win $38.10)
The Chanticleers first season of FBS competition did not go according to plan. After four consecutive playoff appearances as a member of the Big South and a ten-win season in their final season of FCS play, the Chanticleers won their first FBS game, but lost nine in a row before winning their final two games of the regular season. It's not a perfect Duke with Pete Gaudet analogy, but Coastal was without the services of their head coach Joe Moglia as they transitioned to FBS. Moglia will probably be given too much credit for Coastal's inevitable improvement this season, as the Chanticleers were a perfectly average Sun Belt team last season despite their 2-6 conference record. The Chanticleers were 1-5 overall in one-score games, including a heartbreaking loss at Arkansas. Marginal improvement should get them to at least 3-5 in Sun Belt play (if not 4-4) and the non-conference schedule features three very winnable games with UAB and Campbell travelling to Conway and the Chanticleers heading north to face Massachusetts. At worst, the Chanticleers should push and if they get to five wins, you almost double your money.

Florida International under 5 wins -110 ($30 to win $27.30)
Butch Davis' return to south Florida was pretty successful. Under his tutelage, the Panthers tied the school record for wins in a season by doubling their 2016 win total. However, based on most of the numbers I run, the Panthers were definitely more lucky than good. Based on Conference USA Yards per Play numbers, the Panthers were only better than three other teams in the league. They were below average on both sides of the ball, but still managed to win five of their eight conference games. Similarly, their APR numbers were also less than stellar. The Panthers finished with about one and a half more conference wins than we would expect given their touchdowns scored and allowed. Characteristics like that tend to portend regression the next season. In addition, the Panthers lose their leading passer, rusher, and receiver from 2017 to graduation and have two Power Five teams (Indiana and Miami) on the non-conference schedule in 2018 (they had zero in 2017). Expect a significant slide by the Panthers in 2018.

Georgia State under 4.5 wins even ($30 to win $30)
Georgia State won seven games last season. The seven teams they defeated combined for an overall record of 22-63, with Western Kentucky (6-7) being the best of the bunch. Despite those seven wins, Georgia State was outscored by 53 points on the season and even lost to an FCS team (the fifth time they have done so since joining FBS in 2013). In other words, despite winning their first bowl game in school history, Georgia State was not very good in 2017. And there are reasons to believe they will get worse in 2018. The Panthers lose quarterback Connor Manning and have only eleven returning starters (tied for the fewest in the Sun Belt). They also have a tougher schedule in 2018. In 2017, the Panthers did face Penn State, but their other non-conference games came against Tennessee State and Charlotte (their game with Memphis was canceled). This season, they face NC State and Memphis on the road while hosting Kennesaw State and Western Michigan. Winning either of those road games will be a daunting task and the Panthers should be decent underdogs against Western Michigan to say nothing of their penchant for crapping the bed against FCS teams like Kennesaw State. In conference play, the Panthers face three of the strongest Sun Belt teams on the road (Appalachian State, Arkansas State, and Troy), while hosting some teams that appear poised for improvement (Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, and Louisiana-Monroe). This looks like it could be a very long season for the tenants of the stadium formerly known as Turner Field.

Georgia Tech over 6 wins even ($30 to win $30)
After qualifying for a bowl game each season between 1997 and 2014, the Yellow Jackets have now missed out on the postseason for the second time in three seasons. In an effort to break out of the rut, Paul Johnson cast off his maligned defensive coordinator Ted Rood and swiped Nate Woody from Appalachian State. Outside of a turnover fueled 2014 campaign, Roof's defenses were continuously underwhelming so a change was needed. The question will be how much improvement Woody can coax out of the Jackets in just one season. The good news is the offense should be in the top quartile of the ACC. Senior quarterback TaQuon Marshall played well in his first season as a starter, rushing for over 1000 yards and accounting for 27 total touchdowns. Despite finishing with a losing record last season, Georgia Tech was very close to winning eight regular season games. They lost by a single point to both Tennessee and Miami and lost by four points to Virginia. Unfortunately for Georgia Tech, their annual schedule includes dates with Clemson and Georgia, two programs that appear to be burgeoning superpowers under their respective coaches. It wouldn't shock me if Georgia Tech combines for two wins against those teams over the next decade or so. However, even if we assume both those games as losses, the Yellow Jackets should be in position to win most of their other games (perhaps with the exception of Miami). I certainly would not predict it now, but if Georgia Tech is set for a rematch with Clemson in the ACC Championship Game on the first weekend in December, the hindsight narrative will go something like this: New defensive coordinator and senior quarterback lead Tech to Coastal Division title.

Indiana over 5 wins -115 ($20 to win $17.40)
Since the Big 10 changed its divisions to geographical designations in 2014 from whatever the hell they were based on previously, perhaps no team has suffered as much as Indiana. The Hoosiers are stuck in the East with Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Penn State. Against those four teams, the Hoosiers are 1-11 (with five close losses), but a respectable (and elite by Indiana historical standards) 8-14 against other conference opponents. Of course, Indiana remains in the East, so those four teams are once again on the schedule. However, evening assuming those games are all losses, the Hoosiers have a backdoor path to bowl eligibility. The Hoosiers of course get to play their other division opponents (Maryland and Rutgers) with the seemingly tougher opponent (Maryland) coming at home. In their games against the West, the Hoosiers get Iowa and Purdue at home and travel to Minnesota. The Hoosiers will probably be underdogs in all three, but should be able to snag at least one victory against the West. With a victory against either Maryland or Rutgers and one victory against a West division foe, the Hoosiers appear destined for at least five wins with their soft non-conference schedule (Ball State and Virginia at home with a road trip to Florida International). Indiana will need to pull an upset along the way to get back to a bowl game, but the Hoosiers have won at least five games in four of the past five seasons, so I think at worst this number is a push.

Iowa over 7.5 wins -105 ($40 to win $38.10)
Last season, particularly at home, the Hawkeyes were a dangerous team. They pummeled Josh Allen and Wyoming, took Penn State to the final play, and demolished Ohio State. Plus, outside of their loss to Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes were competitive in all their defeats. Add it all up, and the Hawkeyes outscored their opponents by about points eight per game and posted an SRS ranking of 14th. Not bad for a five loss team. Now, to cash this ticket, all Iowa has to do is improve by one game in 2018. Considering they were better than your typical five loss team, return thirteen starters including quarterback Nathan Stanley, and avoid three of the four strong teams from the Big 10 East, Iowa is a real sleeper to return to the Big 10 Championship Game. Hawkeye backers do have the misfortune of facing five Big 10 road games this season, but outside of Penn State, the Hawkeyes should be favorites in at least three of the other four games (Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue). Asking Iowa to win eight games against this schedule does not appear to be that big of a stretch.

North Carolina over 5.5 wins -135 ($20 to win $14.80)
3-9 records tend to depress expectations for the following season, but let's not forget that North Carolina was in the AP top ten and representing the Coastal Division in the ACC Championship Game in December of 2015. They acquitted themselves reasonably well against a Clemson team that nearly won the national title, but since our most recent experience tends to be the one we remember most, North Carolina looks like a program that is crumbling. The Tar Heels were bad in 2017, there is no doubt about that, but injuries are partially to blame for the stunning collapse. The bones of the program are solid, if not strong, and the Tar Heels don't have to win ten games to cash this ticket. No, they just need to eke out bowl eligibility. While the schedule appears daunting at first glance, I wouldn't be surprised if the Tar Heels salvaged a split in non-conference play with their two marquee games at Cal and home against Central Florida. The other two, against directional Carolina schools (East and Western) should be cakewalks and the Tar Heels should be able to find three conference wins on the schedule (something they have done every season under Larry Fedora with the exception of 2017). I might try keeping Larry Fedora away from open mics lest he become an insane conspiracy theorist like Alex Jones, but a rebound for the Tar Heels seems like a solid bet.

Old Dominion over 5.5 wins even ($150 to win $150)
Obviously by the size of this wager, this is the one I have the most confidence in heading into 2018. Old Dominion joined Conference USA in 2014 and despite playing their first (new) season of football in 2009, the Monarchs have shown themselves to be a competent FBS program. The Monarchs have never failed to win fewer than five regular season games as an FBS team and when head coach Bobby Wilder has a reliable quarterback, the results have been pretty good. Old Dominion went through some growing pains last season when they made freshman Steven Williams the starting quarterback. Despite the youth and inexperience, Old Dominion entered the season's final weekend with a chance to become bowl eligible. It didn't work out, but giving Williams playing time should pay dividends this season. Old Dominion also has a very manageable non-conference schedule in 2018. After playing two ACC opponents last season (North Carolina and Virginia Tech), the Monarchs still face the Hokies, but do not have any other Power Five teams on the schedule. Their other non-conference games include East Carolina, Liberty, and VMI. The East Carolina and Liberty games are both on the road, but the Monarchs should manage a split meaning they would need only four conference wins to get to six overall. Florida International and Western Kentucky seem due for regression this season and the Monarchs draw Rice from the West as one of their non-division games. A lot of things will have to go wrong for Old Dominion to not become bowl eligible in 2018. Of course, its possible, but I think a division title is much more likely than a losing season.

San Jose State over 2.5 wins -125 ($60 to win $48)
San Jose State was bad in 2017, but their problems were compounded by an historically negative turnover margin. In Mountain West play, the Spartans finished with a margin of -17 in eight games. Obviously, this means this Spartans had two more turnovers than their opponents on average. Good teams won't win many games doing that. In 2015, Hawaii had a similarly historic turnover margin and in my Mountain West APR post, I looked at how other historically bad turnover margin teams performed the next season. In an unsurprising revelation, improvement was universal. It just so happens, Hawaii continued the trend of improvement in their follow-up campaign as the Warriors qualified for a bowl game after finishing as one of the worst teams in college football just twelve months before. A bowl game might be asking for too much from San Jose State, but three wins is a safe bet.

Tulane over 5.5 wins +115 ($40 to win $46)
Tulane head coach Willie Fritz has won wherever he has been, and while his rebuild in New Orleans has been the slowest of his coaching career, I think there is a good chance it begins to coalesce in 2018. The Green Wave have seen their win total climb in each of Fritz's first two seasons, from three in the year prior to his arrival, to four in his first year, and then to five in his second year. Plus, the Green Wave were mere inches away from bowl eligibility last season. The schedule is imposing in 2018, with two games against Power Five teams (Ohio State and Wake Forest) to go along with conference games against Houston, Memphis, Navy, and South Florida, but the Green Wave should have their best offense yet under Fritz. The offense returns nine starters with quarterback Jonathan Banks set to post the best passing numbers of Fritz's tenure thus far. It will require an upset along the way, but Tulane should be able to get to a bowl and cash this ticket.

Tulsa over 4 wins -130 ($40 to win $30.80)
After winning ten games in 2016, Vegas expected Tulsa to take a moderate step back in 2017. However, the Golden Hurricane took a step back and fell off a cliff, finishing 2-10 and winning five and a half fewer games than their preseason win total. I would expect a market correction in 2018. Once again, recency bias is probably to blame (or thank) for the relatively low win total set for Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane bring back fifteen starters from a team that was 0-5 in one-score games. A little better luck should see Tulsa not only eclipse this low win total, but also return to the postseason.

UCLA over 5.5 wins even ($30 to win $30)
Sure. I'll bite. Maybe the college game has changed enough since Chip Kelly last coached in it a half decade ago that he is no longer the innovator he once was. His last offense in San Francisco certainly seemed rather tame. Remember, the early adopter advantage can peter out quickly. Sam Wyche was one of the first coaches to embrace the no-huddle offense and after nearly winning the Super Bowl after the 1988 season, his last seven NFL teams combined to finish 43-69 with a solitary playoff appearance. Still, all Kelly has to do is get UCLA back to a bowl game in his first season to cash this ticket. He doesn't have to win the division or win nine games. The schedule is certainly arduous, with a trip to Oklahoma highlighting the non-conference slate along with tougher than they seem home games against Cincinnati and Fresno State. For the Bruins to have any hope of cashing this ticket, they must beat the Bearcats and Bulldogs before conference play begins. If they do, I think they can scrounge up four conference wins, particularly with five home games, albeit three very tough ones (Southern Cal, Stanford, and Washington).

Western Michigan over 6 wins -135 ($40 to win $29.65)
Off a dream season with major losses on the field (all-time leading passer and receiver) as well as on the sidelines (PJ Fleck left for Minnesota), some drop off was expected for Western Michigan entering 2017. The Broncos opened with losses to strong Power Five programs (Michigan State and Southern Cal), but won four in a row including a seven overtime classic with Buffalo to position themselves for a shot at another division title. Then a game with Akron got postponed until Sunday and the Broncos squandered numerous opportunities in a 14-13 loss to the Zips. After that loss, the Broncos won just two of their final five games and despite finishing with six wins, were not invited to the postseason. The good news for Western Michigan is those newbies from 2017 now have a year of seasoning as they look to return to contention in the rugged MAC West. The schedule sets up nicely for Western Michigan as their two biggest division contenders, Northern Illinois and Toledo must come to Kalamazoo, as does MAC East favorite Ohio. This means most of their road games come against second division teams (Ball State, Bowling Green, and Central Michigan). In non-conference play, the Broncos have one certain loss (at Michigan), but their other three games against Delaware State, Georgia State, and even Syracuse are winnable. They probably won't sweep that trio (Syracuse probably has enough to take them out), but a split would mean they just need a .500 conference record to push and five wins to hit the over. I think Western Michigan has a great shot to not only cash this ticket easily, but also win their division.


Games of the Year
Typically betting lines are set on Sunday for games beginning the following week. However, sportsbooks set a few 'Game of the Year' lines for certain games that are months away from occurring. The home team in these games is listed in bold.

September 15th
Boise State +4.5 Oklahoma State -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Since taking over at Boise State prior to the 2014 season, Bryan Harsin has guided the Broncos to a 6-4 straight up record against Power Five teams. Against the Spread (ATS), their record is a more pedestrian 5-5. However, when you break down the ATS record by role, an interesting trend appears to develop. When Boise State is favored against a Power Five opponent, the Broncos are just 2-4 ATS, but 4-2 straight up. When the Broncos are an underdog, they are 3-1 ATS and 2-2 straight up. Their lone ATS loss as an underdog came in Harsin's first game against an elite Ole Miss team. Outside of that game, the Broncos have won twice outright as a betting underdog and lost in overtime (while still covering) against Washington State last season. The Broncos play the 'no respect' card well and they should be up for this game against a quality Big 12 opponent. Boise State comes into 2018 with a senior quarterback and ten returning starters from a very strong mid-major defense. That defense should be the difference against an Oklahoma State team that loses not only their starting quarterback from 2017, but also a pair of 1000-yard receivers. Oklahoma State will not be a pushover in Stillwater, but the Cowboys are just 5-8-1 ATS as a home favorite the past three seasons. I expect a very close game, and I would not be surprised if Boise was able to spring the outright upset.

October 6th
Florida State +6 Miami -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Last year, Miami was able to exorcise some demons in beating Florida State for the first time since 2009. And all it took was a Florida State team in total disarray. Since 1995, Miami has beaten Florida State by a margin that would cover this number (i.e. at least seven points) three times (2001, 2003, and 2007). I don't expect Florida State to return to the super elite level they were playing at in 2013, but a return to the 2014-2016 form is probable. Meanwhile, Miami was exposed at the end of last season. While they were certainly a top-fifteen team in Mark Richt's second season, they were quite lucky to start the year 10-0 as four consecutive games against teams that finished with six or fewer regular season wins (Florida State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and North Carolina) were all in doubt in the fourth quarter. I expect this game to be close, and with the homefield, Miami may well end up winning, but Florida State is good enough to keep this within a touchdown.

November 10th
Tennessee -1 Kentucky -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Last season, Kentucky beat Tennessee for the first time since 2011 and just the second time since 1984. The 2011 and 2017 victories share a fewthings in common. Both came by three points and both came against Tennessee teams that were horrendous on offense and pretty bad overall. Both teams desperately need this win for bowl eligibility, but while Tennessee has a scrimmage against Charlotte immediately prior to the game, Kentucky has a home game with what should be an elite Georgia squad. I don't try to play psychologist too often, but I think Tennessee will have a slight edge here. While the game with Georgia will obviously be tougher than Tennessee's date with Charlotte, I think Kentucky will expend a lot of equity in the home game against a top-ten Georgia team. Win or (probably) lose, I think they will be emotionally down when travelling to Knoxville the next week. Tennessee doesn't need to win by a lot, they just need to find a way to beat the Wildcats at home. Using history as a guide, I think they will.

South Florida +4 Central Florida -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
South Florida has won twice as many games in the War on I-4 series, but despite playing at home, the preseason line has them catching points. South Florida nearly derailed Central Florida's dream season in Orlando last November, but despite the best efforts of Quinton Flowers, the Knights were able to hold off the Bulls. Flowers is gone, but the Bulls will have all season to find his replacement and get them acclimated to life in the AAC. Since 2015, the Bulls have lost just three times at home, and as I previously discussed in the Central Florida write-up, I think the Knights are due for some regression. Catching points at home in a rivalry game makes South Florida an easy play here.

Conference Champion Bets
I decided to put a few dollars down on a team to win their league.

Georgia Southern to win the Sun Belt +1000 ($10 to win $100)
The Sun Belt was itching to get into the title game business, so they split into divisions for the 2018 season. Georgia Southern is in a division with Appalachian State and Troy, but the Eagles played better at the end of last season under their interim (now head) coach Chad Lunsford. With eighteen starters back, I expect substantial improvement and I figured why not take a flyer on them.

Louisiana Tech to win Conference USA +700 ($10 to win $70)
I think Louisiana Tech is the best team in the West division of Conference USA. While Florida Atlantic is probably the best team in the conference, the East is more challenging with Marshall, Middle Tennessee State, and even Old Dominion capable of putting up a fight. I think the Bulldogs have the easiest path to the conference title game and in a one game scenario, I'll take my chances with Skip Holtz.

Miscellaneous Bets
This is a college football blog, but there were a few other events I wanted to bet on.

Atlanta Braves to win World Series +2500 ($10 to win $250)
The Braves are within striking distance in the NL East and even if they fail to catch the Phillies (or if the disappointing Nationals catch fire), they still have a chance at the Wild Card.

Oakland Athletics to win Wolrd Series +3000 ($10 to win $300)
Can the Athletics catch the Mariners, survive a one game Wild Card with the Yankees, then beat some combination of the Red Sox, Astros, or Indians in the next two rounds and then take down the best the National League has to offer? Probably not, but I couldn't resist rooting for Mr. Moneyball.

Pittsburgh Pirates to win World Series +6000 ($10 to win $600)
This is a pipe dream, but the Pirates have somehow climbed into pseudo contention. Baseball is a funny game and stranger things have happened (particularly in the Central).

Reckless Parlay(s)
I made two reckless parlays this year. One for college football and one for the NFL. All games must be correct for the parlay to pay out.

Parlay 1:
$10 to win $110

Game 1: August 31st
Utah State +25 Michigan State
The Aggies have eighteen returning starters and should be able to stay within three touchdowns of Michigan State.

Game 2: September 1st
Miami (Ohio) -2 Marshall
Miami is one of the best teams in the MAC and should have beaten Marshall in Huntington last year.

Game 3: September 1st
Coastal Carolina +30 South Carolina
South Carolina's largest margin of victory under Will Muschamp is 26 points.

Game 4: September 1st
Louisville +25.5 Alabama @ Orlando
I think Louisville will be better than people think despite the loss of Lamar Jackson. This game won't be close per se, but Louisville will do enough to cover.

Parlay 2:
$10 to win $60

Game 1: September 9th
Cleveland +6 Pittsburgh
Probably a dumb bet, but I think Cleveland will be better and the team will not have quit on the season in Week 1 (hopefully).

Game 2: September 9th
Cincinnati +3 Indianapolis
The Bengals will be better. Plus, will Andrew Luck play?

Game 3: September 9th
Washington +1 Arizona
The Cardinals are going to be bad in 2018.

The Evolution of Heisman Winning Quarterbacks Part II: Rushing and Total Offense

Last week in our initial review of the past twenty Heisman winning quarterbacks, we looked at passing statistics. This week we want to give the more athletic members of this exclusive fraternity some love and look at the rushing and combined totals of the most recent Heisman winning quarterbacks. Before we get started, this is just a reminder that these stats are not adjusted for pace nor opponents and they do not include bowl or playoff games.

We’ll start with rush attempts. College statistics are kind of dumb, so these rush attempts include sacks (which are of course intended to be pass attempts), and like the NFL, the occasional kneel down.

The average of 102 rush attempts does a good job of sorting quarterbacks by dual threats and pocket passers. All seven quarterbacks with above average rushing attempts are recognized as dual threat quarterbacks and everyone with below average rushing attempts are known as statuesque pocket passers with a few exceptions. Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston contributed a non-insignificant amount with their legs despite a below average number of rush attempts. There’s also Charlie Ward who we will touch on in a bit and Ty Detmer surprisingly ranks higher than one might think here. However, once we look at the next statistic, it becomes pretty obvious that Detmer’s ranking here is a result of a lot of sacks. Speaking of that next stat, let’s move to rush yards.

The difference between Lamar Jackson and Ty Detmer in their Heisman winning seasons is roughly 1700 rush yards or about the freshman campaign of Samaje Perine. Twice as many Heisman winning quarterbacks finished with negative rushing yards (8) as finished with at least 1000 rushing yards (4). In the early 2000s, Heisman voters had a fetish for immobile pocket passers with four of five winners posting negative rushing yards (Weinke, Palmer, White, and Leinart). Of course, the other winner in that time frame (Crouch) was the first Heisman winning quarterback to rush for 1000 yards.

Next up is yards per rush.

No surprise that the explosive Lamar Jackson ranks first in this metric. Charlie Ward proves his worth as a runner here. While he rated below average in rush attempts and rushing yards, the future NBA point guard did a fine job of picking his spots, as he averaged more yards per carry than both Tim Tebow and Robert Griffin. If we remove the eight quarterbacks that were in the red, the average creeps up to 4.59 yards per attempt which surprisingly makes Tebow and Griffin below average on a per attempt basis.

Next is rushing touchdowns.

Tebow edges out Lamar Jackson for rushing touchdowns by a Heisman winning quarterback. No real surprise here except for maybe that Robert Griffin only rushed for nine touchdowns in his Heisman winning season. The thirteen below average quarterbacks combined to rush for 37 touchdowns or less than the combined total of Tebow and Jackson.

Now let’s look at total offense.

Despite all the sacks, Ty Detmer ranks as the total offense king among Heisman winning quarterbacks. His immediate Heisman predecessor and kindred spirit, Andre Ware ranks third with Lamar Jackson nestled between them. Detmer’s total offense numbers are nearly double those of Eric Crouch. Again, Crouch played in a diametrically disparate offensive system, but the gulf between them is still amazing.

Our final measure is total touchdowns. If you are an astute reader you may notice the total touchdowns (and total offense) don’t add up for some quarterbacks. This is because a few quarterbacks managed to catch passes and occasionally score a touchdown via a trick play. The receiving numbers are non-existent for most quarterbacks, so I elected not to give them their own category.

Mariota and Bradford accounted for the most touchdowns as Heisman winners with Jackson and Tebow joining them in the exclusive ‘half a hundred’ club. As usual, Crouch and Torretta bring up the rear.

In looking back on Heisman winning quarterbacks from the past three decades, a few stand out. Gino Torretta is usually remembered as one of the worst Heisman winners (especially in the modern era) and you won’t get an argument from me in that regard. Torretta accounted for a paltry 19 touchdowns in 1992 which is less than half of the average Heisman winning quarterback. He also ranked near the bottom in numerous other categories like total offense, adjusted yards per pass, and touchdown to interception ratio. The only thing Torretta did well was avoid turnovers making him more of a caretaker than a conductor. Nipping at Torretta’s heels is of course Eric Crouch. Crouch finished dead last in every passing statistic except for interceptions (primarily because he only threw 189 passes as he did finish last in interception percentage) and while his rushing numbers were quite good, he still accounted for the fewest total yards of any Heisman winning quarterback and the second fewest touchdowns. Compare Crouch’s numbers during his Heisman winning campaign to those of other contemporary Nebraska quarterbacks, Tommie Frazier and Scott Frost in their senior seasons.

Frazier finished second behind Eddie George in 1995 and while his total offense checks in below 2000 yards, he accounted for 31 touchdowns (five more than Crouch) and threw just four interceptions. Frost put up eerily similar numbers to Crouch, outside of throwing less than half as many interceptions, and didn’t even finish in the top ten in 1997.

What about best Heisman winners? I think your two obvious choices are either Mariota or Mayfield. Mariota accounted for 53 total touchdowns in 2014 and had a microscopic interception percentage. Meanwhile, Mayfield posted the best Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt average in college football history.

And finally, before we close out, what Heisman winning quarterback is the most underrated historically? I have to go with Charlie Ward. Ward didn’t have the volume in regards to pass attempts and subsequently yards and touchdowns of modern quarterbacks, but he posted a completion percentage nearing 70% in 1993, had the second lowest interception percentage of any Heisman winner in our study, and averaged more yards per rush than Tebow and Griffin in their Heisman winning seasons. Perhaps people forget about Charlie Ward because he chose to play basketball instead of opting for an NFL career. It just seems odd that the quarterback of Bobby Bowden’s first national championship team is not more widely regarded.

The Evolution of Heisman Winning Quarterbacks Part I: Passing

The Heisman Trophy is perhaps the most prestigious ‘amateur’ award in sports with a rich history and unrivaled pageantry. It ostensibly goes to the best player in college football, but could more accurately be described as going to the best backfield player in college football. No non-back has won the award since Charles Woodson in 1997 and no wide receiver has won it since Desmond Howard in 1991. While the award was egalitarian among backs in the 90’s, with quarterbacks and running backs each winning four times in the decade, signal callers have gained a stranglehold on the award since the turn of the century. Beginning with middle-aged Chris Weinke in 2000, fifteen of the last eighteen winners (and yes, around here Reggie Bush is still considered a Heisman winner) have been quarterbacks. Since the Heisman is almost exclusively a quarterback award, and since we still have seven weeks or so until the season kicks off, I decided to look at the last twenty Heisman winning quarterbacks (beginning with Andre Ware in 1989) and compare their statistics in several categories. Obviously, the game has changed a great deal since Ware hoisted the award in December of 1989, not only with schemes and tactics, but also with television and streaming services, as well as our understanding of the game. As the title of this post suggests, this is part one in a multi-part series. I wanted to look at a number of different statistics for Heisman winners and decided to break those stats into digestible pieces. We’ll start with some passing statistics for Heisman winning quarterbacks and next week, we’ll dive into rushing and total offense stats. For each stat, the twenty quarterbacks will be ranked and the average (mean) will be included to give you an idea of how far above or below average each quarterback ranks. This next paragraph deals with some housekeeping information, so if you want the meat of the article skip down.

First and foremost, the statistics we will be examining are raw. No, there is (virtually) no risk for salmonella, but these stats are not adjusted for opponent nor era, and they are not calculated on a per game basis. Bowl and playoff statistics are not included because those games happen after the Heisman Trophy is awarded. With that out of the way, let’s get started with our first statistic: pass attempts.

I know I said in the intro that the game has changed a great deal since Ware hoisted the trophy, but its cool to see him top this list in terms of volume of pass attempts. This shows you have far ahead of the curve Houston and BYU were in terms of utilizing the forward pass in the late 80s and how crazy it probably seemed to ‘real’ football coaches who preferred to run the ball into the line three times and then punt. Most of the other Heisman winners from the 90s all rank below average in this metric although Gino Torretta surprisingly shouldered a lot of Miami’s offense in 1992. Spoiler alert: Eric Crouch will rank at or near the bottom in every passing measure. He was a different kind of quarterback in a different offensive system, but his numbers look more like a Big 8 quarterback from the 80s than any of his Heisman winning contemporaries.

Next up is completion percentage.

Bill Polian was criticized for suggesting Lamar Jackson change positions prior to the NFL draft. While Polian’s comments hearken back to the league’s previous (hopefully previous) biases against black players being quarterbacks, his low completion percentage here would concern me, especially in an era of high completion percentages. Of course, a great completion percentage for a Heisman winner does not necessarily portend professional success. I was very surprised Robert Griffin’s 2011 campaign ranked as the best completion percentage by a Heisman winner. And while these numbers are not adjusted for era, I think its safe to say that Charlie Ward has the best era-adjusted completion percentage. No other 90s Heisman winner was above average in completion percentage, but Ward is comfortably third having completed nearly 70% of his passes in 1993!

Next up is total passing yards.

Ty Detmer is the only Heisman winner to top 5000 passing yards in a single season. In fact, his total is more than the combined passing yardage of the two lowest ranked players in this metric. Once again Detmer and Ware were ahead of their time (or at least played in systems that were ahead of their time), as they topped the Heisman winning average by over 1000 yards each.

Next up is passing touchdowns.

I already touched on how Eric Crouch would populate the bottom of these passing stats, but look at Gino Torretta. Those 19 touchdowns seem more indicative of a third team All-Big East quarterback rather than a Heisman winner. And while we’re talking about Torretta, I decided to sort the Heisman winners by their passing touchdown percentage.

As you may recall, while Torretta was below average for passing touchdowns, but he was the only 90s quarterback that was above average in pass attempts. In terms of passing touchdown percentage he ranks significantly below average among non-dual threat Heisman winners.

Next up is interceptions.

Haha. Look at that number for Ty Detmer. 28. That is comical. His performance pretty much destroys the curve. He threw more than three times the number of interceptions as the average Heisman winner. As you can observe from the bottom of the list, passing has gotten much safer in the last ten years. Jameis Winston is the only Heisman winner since 2003 to hit double digits in interceptions. Conversely, Charlie Ward and Gino Torretta were the only Heisman winners prior to 2003 to throw fewer than ten interceptions. And while I denigrated Torretta for his low touchdown percentage a few moments ago, we need to give him credit for being careful with the ball and not squandering any of that South Beach talent he had around him with dangerous throws.

Charlie Ward also continues to shine in efficiency metrics as his interception percentage is topped only by Marcus Mariota’s minuscule mistakes in 2014.

Next up is touchdown to interception ratio.

Obviously, if you only throw two interceptions all season, you should rate highly in this area. Mariota’s ratio is more than double that of silver medalist Baker Mayfield. I know you may be getting tired of this refrain, but Charlie Ward again stands out as the only 90s winner with an above average ranking in this metric.

Next up is touchdown to interception net.

If you like basic math, but don’t care for any of that fancy division, this stat is for you. Instead of dividing touchdowns by interceptions, we are instead subtracting interceptions from touchdowns. A pair of Oklahoma quarterbacks are able to steal the crown from Mariota here, while legacy touchdown passers like Andre Ware and Danny Wuerffel move from below to above average.

Finally, our last statistic is Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt. It does involve a formula, but its pretty simple. You take yards per pass attempt and award a 20 yard bonus for each touchdown and subtract a 45 yard penalty for each interception.

Mayfield’s 2017 campaign is far and away the best AY/A season by a Heisman winner. For comparison, the difference between Mayfield’s AY/A and that of second place Robert Griffin is roughly the same as the difference between Griffin and eighth place Danny Wuerffel. Speaking of Wuerffel, he is the only 90s quarterback to rank above average in this metric. The bottom of this ranking is populated with the usual suspects (Crouch and Torretta), but other polished passers with great supporting casts at a selective, private, west coast institution also rate pretty low here (Leinart and Palmer).

This concludes part I of our look at Heisman winning quarterbacks. When we return next week, we’ll look at how these 20 gentlemen rate in several rushing and combined statistics. Then we’ll summarize the results and see which quarterbacks consistently rated above and below average and maybe even hand out some superlatives. See you next week.

Another Summer of Polls Part III: The Most Under-Rated Teams (Since 2005)

Last week, in our ongoing look at the AP Poll, we looked at teams the pollsters probably over-rated. This week, we are going to look at teams that the pollsters under-rated. I know, you are thinking we already did that. However, in this instance, the pollsters managed to rate these teams (i.e. they finished ranked), but they should have rated them higher. Once again the numbers we will be comparing are the final rankings from the AP Poll and the SRS rankings. For a primer on SRS, follow this link.

Since 2005, which teams have seen the biggest disparity between their SRS ranking and their final AP ranking? Glad you asked. The top-ten are listed below.

Congratulations to Oregon. Mike Bellotti’s penultimate teams ranks as the most under-rated since 2005. As you may recall, the Ducks were ranked second in the country and perhaps on course to play for the national title before an injury to star quarterback Dennis Dixon devastated their offense and contributed to them losing their final three regular season games. The Ducks did rebound to win the Sun Bowl, but their final ranking near the bottom of the AP Poll belied their strong statistical resume.

What do these under-rated teams all have in common? For starters, they all came from BCS/Power 5 conferences. Half of the top-ten came from the SEC and eight of the top-ten came from either the SEC or Pac-10/12. Every team also lost at least three games. Intuitively, this makes sense. If a Power 5 team loses two or fewer games, they will probably finish pretty close to the top-ten and not be capable of being under-rated by this methodology. In addition, six of the ten teams lost their bowl game. For the most part, losses cause teams to drop in the polls, so those teams had their otherwise solid seasons end on sour notes. This is especially true for a pair of Peach/Chick Fil-A Bowl losers, Miami and Ole Miss. The Hurricanes and Rebels were decimated in their bowl losses to LSU and TCU respectively, so the final image any pollster had of those two teams was not positive. Finally, every team on this list save Arizona State failed to win their conference or division. In several cases (Tennessee 2006, Florida 2007, Oklahoma 2011, Auburn 2014, and Ole Miss 2014) this meant there was a national title contender directly adjacent in the conference standings. And in Arizona State’s case, while the Sun Devils managed to win their division, they lost in the conference title game and were then upset in their bowl game. This two-game skid severely impacted their final ranking.

That concludes another summer of polls. Next week, we'll take a look at how Heisman quarterbacks have evolved over the last 30 years or so. Stay tuned.

Another Summer of Polls Part II: The Most Over-Rated Teams (Since 2005)

Last week, in our ongoing examination of the AP Poll, we looked at teams pollsters probably should have ranked. This week, we are going to look at teams the pollsters probably over-rated. Once again the numbers we will be comparing are the final rankings from the AP Poll and the SRS rankings. For a primer on SRS, follow this link.

Since 2005, which teams have seen the biggest positive disparity between their final AP ranking and their SRS ranking (i.e. were ranked too high)? Glad you asked. The top-ten (actually 13) are listed below.

Using this methodology, Louisville finishes as the most over-rated team since 2005. The Cardinals won the final Big East football title and then upset a one-loss Florida team in the Sugar Bowl to finish in the top-fifteen. That plus the fact that the team was quarterbacked by Teddy Bridgewater and coached by Charlie Strong is what most people will remember. Fewer people will remember that this team also lost at home to Connecticut. The SRS has a much better memory than most people and thus incorporates the Connecticut loss as well as the blowout loss to Syracuse and a host of unimpressive wins (like the four-point victory against winless Southern Miss) into the Cardinals’ final ranking.

While Louisville was technically a member of a ‘major’ conference in 2012, eight of the thirteen over-rated team played in non-BCS or Group of Five conferences. Two teams played in the Big East, the weakest BCS conference, one team played in the AAC which owned the Big East’s grandfathered BCS bid for one season, and only two played in a current Power Five conference (Iowa and Wisconsin). I’m a mid-major apologist, but if you want to make the argument that mid-major teams are over-rated by the final AP Poll, well, I think you have a decent case.

Another common trait of these over-rated teams is that they tended to finish in the lower reaches of the poll. The thirteen teams combined for an average finish of about 18.5. If we remove Iowa (top-ten finish) from the equation, the average drops an additional spot to 19.5.

Finally nine of the thirteen over-rated teams won their respective conference (or at least finished tied for first). So, if you want an easy shorthand for determining the most over-rated team in the final AP Poll of the upcoming college football season, look for a mid-major conference champion ranked 19th or lower. And smugly think to yourself how much better a five-loss SEC team would look in their place.

Another Summer Of Polls Part I: The Best Teams that Weren't Ranked (Since 2005)

Last summer we looked at a few aspects of the AP Poll. We examined how often each Power Five team appeared in the preseason and postseason AP Polls and which teams over or under-achieved based on their initial positioning in the AP Poll. This summer, we’re going to examine a few more aspects of the AP Poll. If you want to catch up on last year’s Pulitzer worthy posts, click on the highlighted text in the preceding sentences. You can enjoy these posts without reading those, but this post isn’t going anywhere so if you want to read them for the first time or get reacquainted, feel free.

As the title of this post explicitly states, this week we are going to look at the best team to not finish ranked each season since 2005. How should we define best? Instead of using won/loss record, I decided to be a little more thorough and use SRS (Simple Rating System). SRS is easily to calculate and for a given team, tells us how many point better (or worse) they are than an average team. So, a team with an SRS of 7.00 is a touchdown better than a theoretical average team. You can read more about the calculation here.

Let’s get the ball rolling with chronologically 2005.

I was surprised Michigan ranked as highly as they did in the SRS considering the Wolverines finished with five losses. Obviously, a team with five losses rarely finishes ranked, but the Wolverines were better than their 7-5 record. All five of their losses came by seven points or less (21 total points) while four of their seven wins came by at least sixteen points. The Wolverines didn’t have a lot of great wins, but they were the only team to beat Penn State and in doing so helped the BCS stave off another controversy. Had the Wolverines lost to the Nittany Lions, we would have been looking at a second consecutive season with three unbeaten BCS conference teams vying for two slots in the national title game.

June Jones’ penultimate Hawaii team lost three times with each loss coming by eight points or less. The Warrior lost two of their first three to Alabama and Boise State (remember the Broncos finished unbeaten in 2006) then won nine in a row before dropping their regular season finale to Oregon State (back when the Beavers were still a good team). They rebounded to crush Arizona State in the Hawaii Bowl, giving them two wins against BCS conference teams (also beat Purdue). Outside of Boise, their WAC schedule was not that formidable, but six of their seven conference wins came by double-digits.

The Bulls went from being ranked number two to outside of the polls in two and a half months. Prior to their no-show in the Sun Bowl against Oregon, South Florida was at least competitive in all their losses. Beginning with a Thursday night loss at Rutgers, the Bulls dropped three games in sixteen days by a combined fifteen points. Their best wins in 2007 came at Auburn and in Tampa against West Virginia.

Bo Pelini’s first Nebraska team did not break into the AP top 25 at all in 2008 (one of only three teams on our list to never sniff a ranking). The Cornhuskers lost tight games to Virginia Tech and Texas Tech, but blowout losses at the hands of Missouri and Oklahoma probably kept them off the pollsters’ collective radar. Until their bowl victory against Clemson, Nebraska only beat two teams that finished with a winning record (Western Michigan and can you believe it, Kansas). They did close the year winning six of seven, but that wasn’t enough to land them in the polls.

From preseason number three to also ran. The Sooners lost three of their first six game with the margin of defeat totaling five points. Each game came away from Norman against a bowl team (BYU, Miami, and Texas). After sweeping the Kansas schools, the Sooners appeared to have righted the ship, but lost two of their next three against Nebraska (close) and Texas Tech (not so much). They did finish the year by beating a par of ranked teams (Oklahoma State and Stanford in the Sun Bowl), but it wasn’t enough to get them back in the polls.

Brian Kelly’s first year in South Bend featured five losses with two of them coming against mid-major teams (Navy and Tulsa). After the Tulsa loss dropped the Irish to 4-5, they closed strong, winning their last four by a combined 69 points (somewhere Gronkowski is smiling). Navy and Tulsa were actually pretty strong in 2010, coming for 19 wins and both ranking in the SRS top-50, so the Irish were probably better than most five loss teams.

Texas A&M was insanely unlucky in 2011. That was bad news for Mike Sherman, who was fired, but great news for Kevin Sumlin, who was hired. The Aggies lost six games with five coming by a touchdown or less. Three of those closes losses came against teams that finished in the top 20 of the final poll and the SRS (Arkansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State). The other two came against bowl teams Missouri and Texas. Meanwhile, six of the Aggies seven wins came by double-digits. And let’s not forget, the Aggies also handed Baylor one of their three defeats in Robert Griffin’s Heisman season.

Fresh off the best season in school history, the Cowboys were Rich Rodriguez’s first major scalp in Tucson. They also dropped three one-score conference games, but pounded bowl-bound conference mates TCU, Texas Tech, and West Virginia by a combined 81 points. In the Heart of Dallas Bowl, they annihilated an overmatched Purdue, but pollsters refused to overlook their five losses.

Close road losses to Clemson, Vanderbilt, and Auburn, as well as a tight Gator Bowl loss to Nebraska conspired to keep Georgia out of the final polls. In between, the Bulldogs beat bowl teams Georgia Tech, LSU, and South Carolina. They also pounded a decent North Texas team that went on to win nine games. Alas, victories against struggling Florida and Tennessee squads failed to move the needle and the Bulldogs home loss to Missouri gave pollsters just enough reason to lock them out of the final polls. 

Was 2014 Arkansas the best six-loss team ever? Probably. While he never won an SEC title or a Rose Bowl, Bert can have that proudly chiseled on his oversized tombstone. The Hogs lost six conference games, with five coming by a touchdown or less including a one-point loss to Alabama on a missed extra point. If the Hogs manage to win that game, the first ever College Football Playoff would have been even more controversial as the SEC champion could have been left out entirely! Imagine the calls on Finebaum that week. When they weren’t losing close conference games, the Razorbacks bludgeoned a solid Northern Illinois team and shut out LSU and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks. They also routed Texas in the Texas Bowl. Like Nebraska circa 2008 and Notre Dame in 2010, the Hogs never sniffed the poll during the season either.

One season after climbing to number one, the Bulldogs didn’t get a whole lot of respect. The Bulldogs only had one close loss (to LSU), but all the teams that beat them ended up being pretty good. Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all finished in the top 30 of the SRS with all but the Aggies finishing in the final polls as well. The Bulldogs didn’t have any great wins, but in addition to wins against bowl teams in Auburn, Arkansas, and NC State, they also beat two solid Conference USA squads (Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech) with no trouble.

Sandwiched between an 0-2 start, with the first loss coming against an FCS team, and an 0-3 finish, the Cougars won eight in a row. Three of their five losses were close, and the Cougars pounded Stanford in Palo Alto, but their only other victory against a bowl team came against mighty Idaho. Take away the FCS loss and maybe the Cougars have an argument, but this is the most excusable miss for the pollsters.

Every team that beat the Hawkeyes made it to a bowl with four of the five teams winning at least ten games. Three of the losses were close, and oh yeah, the Hawkeyes had one of the best wins of the year. Their bludgeoning of Ohio State probably skews their rating a little, but the Hawkeyes quietly did good work in the non-conference to bolster their resume. All three of their regular season non-conference opponents qualified for a bowl game and their in-state rival beat the two best teams in the Big 12.

One thing I noticed writing the capsules for these teams was that almost all of them improved the following season. If you plan on making some bets on regular season win totals this summer (as I do), Iowa might be a good team to take the ‘Over’ on. See the table below for a summary.

Ten of the twelve teams improved their regular season record the following season with five teams improving by at least two games. Iowa needs to improve their record by a single game to top their preseason win total of 7.5. Keep an eye on the Hawkeyes in 2018 as they could also be a sleeper in the Big 10 West.