The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII

Two good weeks in a row and three out of four. The yearly numbers are not quite as bad and there is an outside shot we could get back to .500. Again, that's far from a successful season, but better than it looked a month ago. 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 39-44-1

UTSA +3.5 Tulane

In a weird scheduling quirk, both of these teams are unbeaten in AAC play, yet neither has clinched a spot in the conference title game. The winner will obviously punch their ticket and the loser still has a snowball's chance (would need SMU to lose to Navy). Both the Roadrunners and Green Wave won their respective leagues last season, with UTSA beating North Texas in their final season in Conference USA and Tulane knocking off UCF on their way to an eventual upset of Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl. UTSA dropped off everyone's radar when they began the season 1-3. Elderly quarterback Frank Harris was dealing with some injury issues, but once conference play began, the team rounded into form. All but one of their league wins has come by double digits. Meanwhile, Tulane has the better overall record, but they have been far from dominant. Four of their league victories have come by a touchdown or less. Tulane and UTSA have faced five common league opponents. Tulane has outscored those five opponents by 40 total points. UTSA has outscored those same opponents by 89 total points. Despite the venue, I think the wrong team is favored here. Take the Roadrunners to win a third consecutive league title. 

Oregon State +13.5 Oregon

Before I dive into some reasons for backing the Beavers in this spot, I want to breakdown why I think the line itself is wrong. Indulge me. Last week, Oregon State was a slight home favorite against Washington. Once we factor in homefield advantage, that would mean the betting market views Washington and Oregon State as roughly equals on a neutral field. We'll give Washington the benefit of the doubt since they are unbeaten and Oregon State has a great homefield advantage and say they are two points better than Oregon State in the betting market. Six weeks ago, Washington and Oregon played a classic in Seattle with the Huskies winning 36-33. Washington was a slight favorite in that game, implying the betting market viewed Washington and Oregon as equals. If Washington and Oregon were roughly equals in the betting market and Washington was rated slightly higher than Oregon State, how is Oregon (with homefield advantage) rated nearly two touchdowns ahead of Oregon State? Using basic logic, I think there is value in this number. And that is before you consider the fact that this is a rivalry game (perhaps the last iteration for some time) and Oregon State's great run as an underdog under Jonathan Smith. Under Smith, the Beavers are 13-6 ATS (10-3 since 2019) as a road underdog and 8-4 ATS (6-1 since 2019) as a double digit road underdog. Oregon blasted the Beavers by 40 in Smith's first season (2018), but since then the games have been decided by an average of seven and a half points. Despite the loss to Washington last week, I expect Oregon State to be motivated. They can even keep the Ducks out of the Pac-12 Championship Game if they win and Arizona wins their Territorial Cup clash with Arizona State. This is too many points, so take the Beavers to get a dam cover. 

Ohio State +3.5 Michigan

This is the first time Ohio State has been an underdog in the regular season since Ryan Day became head coach. The Buckeyes have been underdogs on four occasions in the College Football Playoff, posting a 2-2 ATS mark. With apologies to Iowa, this has the feel of a College Football Play-In Game, with the winner getting in and the loser needing some chaos to sneak in. A similar scenario presented itself last season with both teams also entering with unbeaten records. Michigan won, but Ohio State managed to get in after Utah blasted Southern Cal in the Pac-12 Championship Game. That Ohio State team was better offensively with quarterback and future NFL star CJ Stroud leading the attack. The defense was a little leaky and that manifested itself in this game as the Wolverines gained over 250 yards on the ground and averaged over seven yards per carry. The script has been flipped this season. Ohio State's offense is not nearly as explosive despite the presence of Marvin Harrison Jr. But the defense is allowing under ten points per game. No team has scored more than 17 points against that unit. Interestingly, both defenses in this game had their worst point total showing against Maryland. The Terps scored 17 against Ohio State and 24 against Michigan last week. Michigan has the better defense by points per game, but Ohio State has faced a more difficult schedule, with Notre Dame serving as a great out of conference data point (something Michigan does not have). And while Ohio State's quarterback (Kyle McCord) was thought to be the weak link a few weeks ago, Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy has looked mortal the past two weeks against Penn State and Maryland. I think the last two weeks have sort of exposed the Wolverines. They are still one of the best teams in college football, but I think Ohio State is better, so I will take the points.  

Pittsburgh +6 Duke

Were I a Pitt fan, and believe me, I have enough problems as it is, I would be questioning where this new quarterback has been all season. Nate Yarnell got the start against Boston College and played well. Granted, it was at home and the Eagles have arguably the worst defense in the ACC, but his numbers were fantastic compared to the other two scrubs the Panthers have run out there this season. Phil Jurkovec and Christian Veilleux combined to complete barely half their passes this season. That might be acceptable for a triple option team or an NFL quarterback in the 1970's, but its downright horrible in 2023. Only four teams have a worse completion percentage than the Panthers. Yarnell's play gives the Panthers hope for the future and makes them an ideal team to take catching a touchdown against a team that appears to have run out of steam. Duke lost quarterback Riley Leonard to a gruesome injury in their fifth game against Notre Dame. Leonard missed just one game, but was ineffective upon his return and has not played in a month. His backups have not inspired much confidence either. Since Leonard's injury, the Blue Devils have lost four of six games, and outside of their overtime tilt with North Carolina, have averaged under twenty points per game. As I repeat often around these parts, its hard to cover when you can't score. Finally, one additional reason to back Pitt is head coach Pat Narduzzi's success against the Blue Devils. Under Narduzzi, the Panthers are 7-0 against Duke with four of the wins coming in Durham and three of those road victories coming as an underdog. 

Old Dominion -3 Georgia State

I faded Georgia State a few weeks ago when they were hosting Appalachian State because it appeared they were headed in the wrong direction. The Panthers began the season 6-1, but have lost four in a row and are in danger of ending the regular season on a five-game skid. What has happened? The schedule has toughened up. Georgia State began the season with games against Rhode Island (FCS), Connecticut, and Charlotte. Connecticut is 2-9 with one victory against an FBS opponent and Charlotte is 3-8 with two wins against FBS teams. In Sun Belt play, two of their first four games were against Marshall and Louisiana-Lafayette, two teams that are 5-6 heading into the final week of the season. They did beat Coastal Carolina on the road, but the Chanticleers are not what they were under Jamey Chadwell. Since beating Louisiana-Lafayette to get to 6-1, the Panthers have faced two of the best teams in the Sun Belt (Appalachian State and James Madison), a non-conference game against LSU, and their in-state rival Georgia Southern. Meanwhile, in Norfolk, Old Dominion is looking to double last season's win total and get to a second bowl game in three seasons under Ricky Rahne. The Monarchs have been nothing if not exciting in 2023. Nine of their eleven games have been decided by a touchdown or less. That includes games against an awesome James Madison, an ACC team (Wake Forest), and something called Texas A&M Commerce. In Sun Belt play, Old Dominion has outgained their opponents by more than half a yard per play (+0.59) while Georgia State has been outgained by more than a yard per play against Sun Belt foes (-1.20). That alone makes Old Dominion the play to cover this small number and get to bowl eligibility. 

Auburn +14.5 Alabama

When a team is embarrassed like Auburn was last week in an humbling home loss to New Mexico State, you have to expect them to bounce back the next week. Prior to that perplexing loss to the Aggies, Auburn had won three in a row, with each victory come against an SEC opponent. While Auburn could easily have overlooked New Mexico State last week with Alabama on deck, the shoe is on the other foot this week. Alabama has a date with Georgia in the SEC Championship Game next week and while Nick Saban will undoubtedly try to keep them focused on the task at hand, I would not be surprised if they started slow. During his historic run in Tuscaloosa, Saban has had a tough time when his teams have traveled to Jordan-Hare Stadium. Alabama is just 4-4 straight up in Jordan-Hare despite entering as favorites seven times. Alabama is just 2-6 ATS in those eight games, covering with one of the best defenses of the modern era in 2011 and again in 2015 against a limited Auburn offense. This Auburn offense is similarly limited, but Alabama, while a championship contender, is not up to the standards of Saban's previous world-devouring squads. In addition, Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze had decent success against Saban when he was at Ole Miss. In five meetings with Alabama, the Rebels were 2-3 straight up and 4-1 ATS. Freeze has also been great as a home underdog in all of his previous stops (Arkansas State, Ole Miss, and Liberty), posting a 10-5 ATS mark, including 4-2 as a double digit home underdog. I wouldn't be shocked if Auburn was tied or leading at the half before Alabama was able to put them away by about a touchdown or so. 

Iowa State +10 Kansas State

Are you ready for Farmageddon? While these teams are not each other's primary rival (that would be the in-state Hawkeyes and Jayhawks respectively), this is still a fun underrated matchup. Kansas State is in an unusual role in this spot as they are laying double-digits against the Cyclones for the first time since 2014. Usually, the Wildcats are underrated by the betting market, but I think they are a little overvalued in this spot. The Wildcats are the reigning Big 12 champions, but this team is not quite up to the standards of last year's championship squad. That's understandable as Kansas State is a developmental program and does not feature a revolving door of five stars. Kansas State's biggest strength is running the football, which is something Iowa State should be able to hold in check. The Cyclones also have the pass offense to take advantage of a Kansas State defense that has put up solid overall numbers, but has really feasted on bad offenses and backup quarterbacks. Missouri, UCF, Texas, and Kansas all put up at least 27 points against this defense. Iowa State should come close to that number and I think they can hold the Wildcats to the low thirties. This one has close game written all over it. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XII

We had our best week of the season. The overall numbers are still quite bad, but we'll see if we can close strong. 

Last Week: 6-1

Overall: 34-42-1

Appalachian State +10 James Madison

After back-to-back losses dropped them to 3-4 overall, Appalachian State has won three in a row and the Mountaineers have an outside shot at getting to the Sun Belt Championship Game. The defensive issues that plagued them in their first eight games (allowed nearly 31 points per game) have dissipated somewhat. The Mountaineers have allowed just 23 points in their past two games; easy victories against Marshall and Georgia State. Now they travel to Harrisonburg (along with College Game Day) to face the unbeaten James Madison Dukes. The Dukes crept into the AP Poll last season after a 5-0 start, but their stay was brief as they were knocked off by Georgia Southern the very next week. Their stay has been a little longer this season, as they enter their fourth week as a ranked team. The Dukes have dominated their past two opponents, beating Georgia State and Connecticut by a combined score of 86-20. However, the Dukes have played their share of tight games this season. Five of their ten wins have come by one-score, including three by a field goal or less. While James Madison has been clutch in their brief run as an FBS program (7-1 record in one-score games), Appalachian State has struggled in close games under Shawn Clark. Clark took over the Mountaineer program before the 2020 season and in his nearly four years in charge, they are just 7-12 in one-score games. However, it should be noted the Mountaineers have only lost 17 total games under Clark, meaning they usually keep games close. In fact, nine of their past ten losses have been by one-score. That makes them an ideal team to back as an underdog, especially one catching double-digits. James Madison will be able to move the ball and score against this defense that is not up to previous standards in Boone. However, the Mountaineers have one of the best quarterback in the Sun Belt (Joey Aguilar) and should be able to score enough to keep this one close. The Mountaineers have also done a great job at protecting Aguilar this season (just 13 sacks allowed) and should be able to neutralize one of James Madison's biggest strengths. The Dukes lead the nation with 43 sacks this season, but as I mentioned, the Mountaineers protect their quarterback well and James Madison will be without the services of Jalen Green, who has 15.5 sacks on the season. I expect a tight game worthy of College Game Day on Saturday. 

Hawaii +13.5 Wyoming

Wyoming's season started with such potential. The Cowboys upset Texas Tech in Laramie in their opener and won five of their first six games. They lost a tight game with Air Force, but had their bye after their battle with the Falcons. With just one conference loss, the Cowboys were contenders in the Mountain West. However, since returning from their bye, the Cowboys have dropped two of three and have struggled moving the ball. The Cowboys are averaging under 22 points per game in Mountain West play and have scored just 45 total points in the three games since their bye. The defense has also regressed. Boise State and UNLV torched their secondary (combined to average ten yards per pass) while Air Force and New Mexico shredded them on the ground (nearly 600 combined rushing yards). Needless to say, this is not the profile of a team you want to back laying double-digits. Hawaii has quietly won two in a row to move to 4-7 in Timmy Chang's second season in charge at his alma mater. These teams seem to be headed in opposite directions and while Wyoming should be favored, they should not be laying two touchdowns. Take the Warriors to keep this one close.  

North Texas -2.5 Tulsa

A pair of 3-7 teams under first year coaches play their penultimate regular season game on Saturday. This is definitely not the biggest game in the mid-afternoon window, but it might be one of the most high scoring. North Texas averages just over 33 points per game on offense and allows nearly 38 per game on defense. The current over/under on this game is just 66, so betting on a shootout might be a good play as well. The Mean Green have lost four in a row to end their dreams of a winning season, but all four losses have come to the cream of the crop in the AAC. Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, and SMU are a combined 32-8 overall and an amazing 23-1 in AAC play! Plus, North Texas was competitive in three of the four games, losing to Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA each by one possession. Their most recent game against SMU was more of a struggle, but I think that has served to artificially lower the price of the Mean Green in this spot. Tulsa is also 3-7, but the Golden Hurricane have lost five in a row, and while two of those defeats came to SMU and Tulane, the other three were Florida Atlantic, Rice, and Charlotte. North Texas is the better team and is laying less than a field goal, so they are the play. 

Sam Houston State +13 Western Kentucky

Despite what the betting market may believe, this is not the Western Kentucky team from 2021. That team featured an incredible Group of Five offense. Turnovers and close game variance are the only reasons they did not break through, win Conference USA, and potentially finish with a number beside their name in the AP Poll. To put that team's offensive numbers in the proper context, consider this: Western Kentucky faced ten FBS Group of Five teams (in other words, teams in Western Kentucky's weight class) in the regular season in 2021. They scored at least 30 points in all ten games. Here is how often they scored thirty or more against Group of Five opponents in the other four seasons Tyson Helton has been in charge.

2019: two times in nine games

2020: two times in nine games

2022: six times in ten games

2023: three times in eight games

Without Bailey Zappe and Zach Kittley, the offense degraded in 2022 and the trend has continued in 2023. The Hilltoppers have failed to score 30 points in each of their past four games (1-3 record) and are going to end up throwing for about half as many touchdown passes as they did in 2021 (63). If the Hilltoppers struggle getting to 30, it stands to reason they will have a hard time covering this big number, even against an FBS neophyte. Sam Houston State has struggled in their first season as an FBS program, losing their first eight games before knocking off Kennesaw State two weeks ago. They followed that win up with a road win at Louisiana Tech and are looking to close their maiden voyage in FBS on a strong note. The Bearkats were terrible on offense in the early going, managing just ten points in their first three games. However, once conference play began, the offense, while still below average, has managed to score multiple touchdowns. The Bearkats have averaged just under 27 points per game in league play and have lost four conference games by a touchdown or less. Western Kentucky should not be laying this many points. Take the Bearkats and the points. 

New Mexico State +24 Auburn

This is not a true So Con Saturday game, but spiritually, it fits the bill. Auburn preps for their Iron Bowl game with Alabama by facing a Conference USA squad that has not only clinched their second consecutive bowl game, but also an appearance in the Conference USA Championship Game. New Mexico State, under second year head coach Jerry Kill, lost at home to Massachusetts to open the season and appeared poised for a step back after last season's Quick Lane Bowl victory. Since that loss, the Aggies have won eight of ten with diminutive quarterback Diego Pavia leading them in both passing and rushing. That rushing attack, for both teams, is why I like the big underdog in this spot. Neither team pass frequently, as both rank in the bottom thirty nationally in pass attempts. With both teams keeping the ball on the ground, the clock will run, possessions will be minimized, and Auburn will have a tougher time getting margin. And with Alabama up next, Auburn has no incentive to run up the score. I expected this spread to be under twenty points, so I will happily take 24. 

Old Dominion +6 Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern is already bowl eligible for the second straight season under Clay Helton, but the Eagles have faded after a strong start. Georgia Southern began the year 4-1, with the only loss coming at Wisconsin when they outgained the Badgers, but turned the ball over six times. And while the Eagles are 3-3 in Sun Belt play, they are fortunate to have such a mediocre record. They have been outgained by those six league opponents by nearly one yard per play (-0.99). In all three of their conference victories, the Eagles returned an interception for a touchdown, helping them overcome situations where their opponents were more efficient on a play-by-play basis. Meanwhile, Old Dominion also sports an identical 3-3 league record, but the Monarchs have actually outgained their league opponents by more than half a yard per play (+0.64). Old Dominion has been incredibly unfortunate in their fourth down conversion rate. The Monarchs have only converted one of eight fourth downs in Sun Belt play, while their opponents have converted nine of fifteen (60%). In addition, all of Old Dominion's conference games have been decided by a touchdown or less. I expect more of the same here. Georgia Southern should probably be favored, but the spread should be less than a field goal. Laying nearly a touchdown, even at home, is too much. 

Syracuse +6.5 Georgia Tech

At this point, Georgia Tech is a pretty simple handicap under Brent Key. Back them as an underdog, and fade them as a favorite. As an underdog, either at home or away, Georgia Tech is 10-2 ATS under Key with eight outright victories! As a favorite (all of which have come at home), the Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS and have lost each game outright. Syracuse changed up their offense last week, eschewing the forward pass (nine passes for eight yards) and ran what amounts to a modified version of the single wing. That rushing attack would seem to match up perfectly with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets cannot stop the run, allowing 224 yards per game and 5.33 yards per carry on the season. Fade the Yellow Jackets yet again as a favorite. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XI

Whatever optimism we built up the week prior dissipated last week. Oh well. There's always next year. 

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 28-41-1

Wake Forest +2.5 NC State

As a Wake Forest fan and alum, I have watched portions of every game in this series for at least the past quarter century. And anecdotally, it always seemed like the home team managed to win. When I fact-checked those numbers, that was indeed the case. Since 1996, Wake Forest has won twice in Raleigh (2006 and 2018). Since 1997, NC State has won twice in Winston-Salem (2001 and 2015). Thus, in the past 27 games in this series, the home team is an incredible 23-4! I think there is a good chance that trend continues on Saturday. Wake Forest played one of their best games on the season offensively on the road at Duke last week. The team netted just 21 points, but they racked up 400 yards of total offense and averaged over six yards per play for the first time since their second game of the year against Vanderbilt. Missed kicks and costly turnovers did them in against a quality Duke squad. Meanwhile, NC State is probably a little overvalued after winning back to back home games as an underdog against Clemson and Miami. The Wolfpack are 22-4 straight up in Raleigh since the start of the 2020 season. The road has been much less hospitable (6-9 in road ACC games in that span). I expect a tight game where points are at a premium, so take the underdog. 

Appalachian State +2 Georgia State

Its been a rough year for the Mountaineers from Boone. Their defense has been uncharacteristically poor and has let them down on numerous occasions. Despite their defensive struggles, the Mountaineers have been in almost every game and still have an outside shot at winning the Sun Belt. Each of their four losses has come by a touchdown or less, and the Mountaineers led in three of those losses in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Georgia State has hit a rough patch after a solid start. The Panthers have lost two in a row and four of six after a 4-0 start. A closer look reveals the schedule is the likely culprit. In their first three games, Georgia State beat Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Charlotte. Those squads have combined for three victories against FBS teams. Their fourth victory was legitimately impressive, as they won at Coastal Carolina. Based on recent results though, that was before the Chanticleers got rolling under first year head coach Tim Beck. Appalachian State has dominated this series, winning all nine meetings since joining the Sun Belt in 2014 with eight of the wins (including each one in Atlanta) coming by double digits. This is also the first time Georgia State has been favored in this series. These teams appear to be trending in opposite directions and the series history makes the Mountaineers the pick. 

Missouri +1.5 Tennessee

I don't quite understand this spread. Missouri has only lost two games all season (Georgia and LSU) and the Tigers were competitive in both defeats. The Tigers have also been dominant in their league victories, with all three of their SEC wins coming by double digits. Meanwhile, Tennessee has dropped two of their three SEC road games. The loss to Alabama is understandable, but losing in The Swamp to Florida would make me wary of backing this team away from Knoxville. As expected, with the loss of Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt, the Vols have not been as explosive offensively. Last season, against SEC foes, they averaged over 43 points per game. This season, those numbers are a much more mortal 26 per game. The Vols can still dominate overmatched opponents. Witness their scoring averages against Austin Peay, Connecticut, UTSA, and Virginia (nearly 46 points per game), but they are right around average against SEC opponents. Take the Tigers to pull off this slight upset. 

Coastal Carolina +1.5 Texas State

I'm glad Texas State will be playing in a bowl game for the first time in their brief history as an FBS program. However, are we giving them a little too much respect in this spot? After dropping their first two Sun Belt games to Georgia State and Georgia Southern, the Chanticleers have reeled off four consecutive victories and have a decent chance to get back to the Sun Belt Championship Game. Actually winning that game may prove to be a trifle difficult, so perhaps they can root for James Madison to win their NCAA appeal. But I digress. The Chanticleers have done this despite losing supernova quarterback Grayson McCall to an injury three weeks ago. Without McCall, the Chanticleers put up over 400 yards in each of their next two games and scored 62 combined points. Texas State has a winning Sun Belt record (3-2), but they are actually slightly underwater in terms of Net YPP in league play (- .05). Meanwhile, Coastal has outgained their Sun Belt opponents by nearly a yard per play (+ 0.97). The wrong team is favored here. 

Cal -1.5 Washington State

Washington State is leaking oil. After beginning the year 4-0, the Cougars have dropped five in a row. A few of the losses are understandable. Road trips to UCLA and Oregon were tough as was a home date with Arizona. However, their two most recent defeats (at Arizona State and home to Stanford) were bad. The Cougars managed just seven points against a woeful Stanford defense and now need to win two of their final three games to even qualify for a bowl. Their opponent in this game, Cal, will likely miss out on a bowl for the fourth consecutive season as they have dropped four in a row to fall to 3-6. In fairness though, four of their six losses have come to teams currently ranked in the top fifteen of the College Football Playoff Rankings. The other two came to Southern Cal and an SEC school (Auburn). I don't like laying points with Cal, but this number is too low to not back the Bears. 

TCU +10 Texas

Since joining the Big 12 in 2012 and getting an annual shot at their big brother, TCU has performed quite well against the marquee football program in Texas. The Horned Frogs are 8-3 both straight up and ATS against the Longhorns. Coming off an appearance in the College Football Playoff (something Texas has yet to accomplish), the Horned Frogs have struggled. They opened the season by faceplanting against Colorado, then won three in a row to temporarily right the ship. However, since beating a pretty good SMU team, the Horned Frogs have dropped four of five and are in danger of missing out on the postseason entirely. However, three of those four losses came away from Fort Worth. Returning to the friendly confines, I think TCU will put up a fight in the last game they will play against Texas for the foreseeable future. The Longhorns are just 7-9 straight up in road or neutral field games under Steve Sarkisian. Would a close victory or even a loss to the Horned Frogs really surprise you? 

San Jose State +1 Fresno State

San Jose State faced an arduous early season schedule. The Spartans played Southern Cal, Toledo, and Boise State on the road while hosting Oregon State and Air Force. They lost all five of those games (the Toledo and Boise games were close) and were 1-5 halfway through the season. However, once the schedule eased up, the Spartans surged. They have dominated their past three opponents, winning by a combined margin of 129-45. Neither of those three teams (New Mexico, Utah State, and Hawaii) are much to write home about, but I think we can learn something from that domination. Now, the Spartans not only have a chance to get to a second consecutive bowl game, but they also have an outside shot at getting to the Mountain West Championship Game as two of the teams ahead of them in the standings (Fresno State and UNLV) are still on the schedule. While San Jose State had a rough start to 2023, Fresno won their first five games and earned a spot in the AP Poll. They dropped a game at Wyoming (who hasn't?), but have won three in a row and have eyes on a second consecutive berth in the Mountain West Championship Game. As someone who has watched a great deal of Fresno State games and is holding a soon to be worthless under 8.5 wins ticket, the Bulldogs are not that good. However, they have made the plays when it counted, posting a 5-1 record in close games. Their past three victories have all come by a touchdown or less and the Bulldogs are +5 in turnover margin in those three games. The ball will eventually stop bouncing Fresno's way and I think it starts Saturday night. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week X

For the first time in a month, we gave you some winners. The overall record is still terrible, but let's see if we can close strong. 

Last Week: 5-2

Overall: 26-36-1

Jacksonville State +15.5 South Carolina

If I had told you back in the summer that when these two Gamecocks got together, one of them would have exactly a single victory against an FBS opponent, you probably would not have been surprised. After all, Jacksonville State was beginning life as an FBS program and entered 2023 with meager expectations. Well, one of these teams does enter with exactly one FBS win, but it's probably not the team you were expecting. Six weeks ago, South Carolina beat Mississippi State in Columbia to improve to 2-2 on the year. Since beating the Bulldogs, the Gamecocks have dropped four in a row while allowing 146 total points. In fact, every FBS team with the exception of Georgia (go figure) has scored at least 30 points against this alleged SEC defense. Giving up a lot of points and struggling to run the ball (South Carolina averages under three yards per carry) is not a good recipe for covering a large spread. Jacksonville State is a surprising 7-2 in their first year as an FBS team, but that record is a more a function of an easy schedule (Conference USA is the worst FBS league), a good record in close games (3-0 in one-score contests), and a good turnover margin (+9). Still, the other Gamecocks have no bowl game or conference title to play for, so I expect them to be highly motivated playing an SEC team on the road. The other Gamecocks also pressure opposing quarterbacks well, accumulating 30 sacks on the season (13th nationally in sacks per game). And South Carolina has done a poor job of protecting Spencer Rattler, allowing 34 sacks on the year (128th nationally in sacks allowed). You can manually adjust those sack numbers a bit based on each team's respective schedules, but Jacksonville State pressures quarterbacks better than the average team and South Carolina protects worse than average. I don't think the FBS neophytes have the goods to win outright, but they should keep this close and with South Carolina's poor defense and lack of running attack to salt the game away, the back door will be wide open. 

Virginia -2 Georgia Tech

Does it strike you as odd that Virginia, a team that is 2-6 is favored against Georgia Tech, a team that is 4-4? Same here. In situations like this, I think trusting the oddsmakers is a good idea. Georgia Tech has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Through eight games, the Yellow Jackets have beaten ranked (at the time) Miami and North Carolina teams while also losing at home by multiple scores to both Bowling Green and Boston College. Last week's victory against North Carolina was their third in a row against the Tar Heels and the scene in Bobby Dodd Stadium was electric. Can the Yellow Jackets build on that momentum and get one step closer to their first bowl bid since 2018? Under Brent Key, the Yellow Jackets have seven outright upsets including their most recent victory against the Tar Heels. Georgia Tech is 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS in their next game after pulling those upsets. Georgia Tech also has a poor track record in Charlottesville. In their previous nine visits to the commonwealth, they are 2-7 straight up despite being favored six times. Virginia is better than their 2-6 record and still has a remote chance to become bowl eligible by winning their last four games (three of which are at home). Take the Cavaliers to cover this small number. 

Army +18.5 Air Force @ Denver

While not given the same pomp and circumstance as Army/Navy, this penultimate leg of the Commander in Chief's Trophy has been pretty competitive in recent years. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is 11-5 straight up against Army, but most of those victories came prior to Jeff Monken's arrival at West Point. The Falcons are just 5-4 against Army since Monken took over the Cadets and just 3-5-1 ATS, including 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite. The past five games in this series have all been decided by a touchdown or less with very low combined point totals. In the past five games, the teams have combined for an average of just 27 total points. If we get another low-scoring affair, it will be very difficult for the Falcons to cover this big number. This number seems too big, but using their respective performances this season, one can see why Air Force is such a prohibitive favorite. The Falcons are undefeated and potentially playing for a New Year's Six bowl game while Army is 2-6 and struggling offensively as they try and transition away from the traditional flexbone triple option. The Cadets have averaged just under fifteen points per game against FBS opponents this season and have been shutout twice. Despite their struggles, the series history suggests a close game and remember, Air Force struggled to put away a Navy team playing with their backup quarterback two weeks ago. The Midshipmen got an honorary backdoor cover when they scored late and for some reason went for two to blow the actual cover. But I digress. I think the Cadets drag Air Force into the muck and keep it close in a low-scoring game. 

Vanderbilt +12.5 Auburn

After a 2-0 start, the Commodores have dropped seven in a row to clinch their third consecutive losing season under head coach Clark Lea and tenth consecutive losing season overall. Meanwhile, Auburn broke a four-game losing streak last week to move to 4-4 and put themselves in position for a bowl bid. These two teams occupy different divisions in the SEC and have not played regularly. They have only met four times since 2007, and the teams have split those four games with the home team winning each. The last three in this series (2007, 2008, and 2016) have all been decided by a touchdown or less and in their past six trips to Nashville, Auburn has only won by margin once (2003). Their other five trips to Nashville have either resulted in a close win (1991, 1993, 2001) or a close loss (2008, 2012). I expect more of the same on Saturday. Auburn has played three true road games all season and has scored a combined 42 points in those games. And two of those three games included trips to Cal (allowing nearly 34 points per game this season) and LSU (allowing nearly 27 points per game). Auburn's season high for points against a Power Five opponent came last week against Mississippi State (27). I expect Auburn's point total to be in the high teens or low twenties which will not be enough to cover this number. 

Louisiana-Monroe +2.5 Southern Miss

I find it fitting that a few days before Halloween, the corpse of Southern Miss rose from the grave and put a scare into Appalachian State. The Golden Eagles had dropped six in a row heading into their game with the Mountaineers and had been outscored by 148 points in that six-game skid. Miraculously, the Golden Eagles remembered Frank Gore Jr. was on their team (at least until the fourth quarter) and gashed the Mountaineers. Southern Miss led by ten in the fourth quarter, but allowed three consecutive touchdown drives to eventually drop their seventh in a row. Do they have anything left with no bowl game to play for and is head coach Will Hall safe if they finish 2-10 or 3-9? Under Hall, this formerly proud program is 11-22 overall (8-22 versus FBS opponents) and 6-15 against conference foes. If Hall does survive the 2023 season, he will have to do some work in 2024 to remain employed. But I digress. Should the Eagles be laying points at home to a feisty Louisiana-Monroe team? The Warhawks have not fared much better than the Southern Miss in 2023, having lost six in row, but expectations were much lower in Monroe than Hattiesburg. These two teams faced off in the regular season finale in 2022 with Southern Miss needing a win to clinch bowl eligibility and Louisiana-Monroe playing for pride. The game was tied at ten in the fourth quarter, but Southern Miss scored the final ten points to become bowl eligible. This Southern Miss team is much worse and this Monroe team is at least as good and potentially better than last year's squad. Southern Miss shot their wad last week and I expect a flat performance on Saturday against the Warhawks. 

Iowa State -2.5 Kansas 

Fun fact. Iowa State and Kansas have not played in a bowl game in the same season since 2005. It makes sense when you think about it as neither team has an illustrious history of football success. If this game plays out as the oddsmakers expect, that streak is likely to end as Kansas is already bowl eligible and Iowa State needs but a single victory to get there. The Cyclones have quietly won four of five after a disappointing road loss to Ohio. Two of those victories came on the road, a place where the Cyclones have struggled since their run to the Big 12 Championship Game in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, Iowa State was 1-8 in Big 12 road games! Now they return home for the first time in a month looking to mount another darkhorse run to the Big 12 Championship Game. As you may have heard, Kansas is off a rather big victory of their own, knocking off Oklahoma for the first time since 1997. Can the Jayhawks come down from that high of knocking off one of the league's dominant programs and win a conference game on the road? I have my doubts. Iowa State has dominated this series in Ames, winning the past seven, with six of them coming by double digits. In addition, for all their success under Lance Leipold, Kansas has struggled as a road underdog, posting a 4-9 ATS record with all the covers coming when they were catching at least a touchdown. Iowa State will win this game by at least a field goal and continue their resurgence under Matt Campbell. 

Boise State +3 Fresno State

While we were busy shoveling dirt on Boise's grave, we forgot to look at the conference standings. Yes, the Broncos have four losses, but three of them came in the non-conference. In Mountain West play, the Broncos are 3-1 and have ample opportunity to play their way into yet another Mountain West Championship Game. In addition, outside of their loss to an elite Washington team on the road, their other losses have all been close. UCF beat them on the Smurf Turf with a last second field goal. Memphis beat them by three thanks in large part to a blocked field goal they returned for a touchdown. And Colorado State beat them on a last second Hail Mary. Boise may not be a contender at the national level, but they are still plenty good to make a run at the Mountain West title. While Boise has struggled in close games, Fresno State has a horseshoe up their ass. The Bulldogs own four victories by a touchdown or less (against just one loss), including two consecutive close wins in league play to move them to 3-1. Rearrange a few of those close wins and losses for both teams and the perception around this game would be entirely different. Take away the Boise Hail Mary loss and flip one of Fresno's tight victories and I think the Broncos would be favored in their trip to Silicon Valley. As it stands, the Broncos are a value play catching three points. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week IX

You know those people who say 'it gets better'? Well, that is not always the case. The hits just keep on coming. We had some bad picks and some bad beats and it all adds up to a 1-6 week. We'll try and do better this week (would be hard to do worse). 

Last Week: 1-6

Overall: 21-34-1

Kansas +10 Oklahoma

Speaking in purely technical terms, this Oklahoma team just seems gettable. Don't they? The Sooners are unbeaten and will likely be favored in their final five regular season games, but they don't seem elite to me. SMU was within one score of them in the fourth quarter in Norman, they scored twenty points on the road at Cincinnati, and they needed a fourth quarter comeback to knock off UCF last week. Perhaps they are a team of destiny, or perhaps it all falls apart on Saturday in Lawrence, Kansas. Oklahoma has played two road games thus far in 2023 and Kansas is by far their stiffest road test. They play at Oklahoma State next week in the last edition of Bedlam for the foreseeable future, so the Cowboys may end up being the best team the Sooners play on the road. Still, the difference between the Cowboys and Jayhawks is slight, but both are much better than Cincinnati and Tulsa. Even with their backup quarterback, Kansas will be able to move the ball against Oklahoma. Can they make enough stops to cover this number and potentially win outright? I think so. Kansas actually has a better per play differential in Big 12 action than Oklahoma (+0.49 versus +0.26) and they will be primed to get to bowl eligibility for a second consecutive season. Take the Jayhawks and don't be surprised if we see another top ten upset on Saturday. 

Virginia +19 Miami

Both the Cavaliers and Hurricanes are off massive wins. Virginia pulled a road upset against a top ten North Carolina squad while Miami beat Clemson for the first time since 2010 (only played five times since though). The victory halted a two game skid for Miami, represented their first home conference win under Mario Cristobal, and gave their faint ACC Championship Game hopes a little life. Before the ACC scrapped divisions, the Hurricanes and Cavaliers were both residents of the ACC Coastal and thus played every season since the Hurricanes joined the league in 2004. Miami is 11-8 against Virginia since joining the ACC, but that is less impressive considering they have been favored in sixteen of the nineteen contests. The Hurricanes have lost outright seven times as a favorite in this series and the favorite is just 9-9 straight up. Thirteen of the nineteen games have been decided by ten points or less, including the past five. These two teams played a real snoozer last season that was tied at six at the end of regulation. I expect a little more scoring this year, but Miami's victory against Clemson probably says more about the state of the program in the upstate of South Carolina that it does about the one in South Beach. Take the Cavaliers catching another big number. They probably won't win outright, but they will keep it close. 

Miami (Ohio) +7 Ohio

This is a play-in for the MAC Championship Game for all intents and purposes. Both the Redhawks and Bobcats enter with 3-1 conference records, so the winner will leave with what amounts to a one and a half game lead with three to play. This game lost a little of its luster when Miami starting quarterback Brett Gabbert went down with an injury last week against Toledo. The Redhawks were unable to mount a comeback with his replacement and fell in a tight game to the Rockets. However, with a week to prepare, I think they will have some packages to take advantage of backup Aveon Smith's mobility. Without Gabbert, the Redhawks will have to win this game with their defense which is one of the best in the MAC. League opponents are averaging under four yards per play against this unit and no MAC opponent has eclipsed twenty one points. Ohio also plays good defense and the total for this game currently sits at 39.5. Oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game and I think that favors the underdog. Ohio scored 80 combined points in their victories against Bowling Green and Kent State. In their other six games, they have managed just 100 combined points. I expect them to struggle moving the ball and scoring points. Thus, the value in this spot is on the underdog. 

Utah +6.5 Oregon

If we throw out the pandemic impacted 2020 season, Utah has been unbeatable in Salt Lake City over the past five years. The Utes lost to Washington in their conference opener in 2018, and have won 27 straight since (with an asterisk for 2020 when they dropped a game to Southern Cal). Outside of 2020, this also marks the first time Utah has been a home underdog since that loss to Washington. Two weeks ago, it looked like the two best teams in the Pac-12 were facing off in Seattle, but both the Ducks and Huskies have looked vulnerable and a fifth berth by the Utes in the Pac-12 Championship Game is not out of the question. Oregon has struggled on the road against good teams, failing to cover against both Washington State and Oregon State last season, needing a late defensive touchdown to cover against Texas Tech this season, and losing to Washington two weeks ago. After struggling to move the ball through the first half of the season, Utah appears to have found an offense in the past two games. Cal and Southern Cal are not defensive stalwarts, but the Utes had a hard time moving the ball against Florida, Baylor, and Weber State. I'm not going to get in front of this Utah team at home. Take the points and the Utes. 

Arkansas State +2.5 Louisiana-Monroe

It hasn't gotten to the level of Ohio State/Indiana or Alabama/Vanderbilt, but this series has been low-key dominated by Arkansas State. The Red Wolves have won thirteen in a row (last loss in 2009) and have covered the spread in all thirteen games! They have been favored in eleven of the thirteen games, but both times they were underdogs (2013 and 2021), it was by a similar number as this one. They won the 2013 game handily and squeaked by the Warhawks in 2021. Why would things be any different this season? Louisiana-Monroe has been spry under Terry Bowden, but should they be laying points in a conference game? This is just the third time they have been favored against an FBS opponent under Bowden and they have failed to cover the two previous games. Plus, Arkansas State has done well as a road underdog against Group of Five opponents under Butch Jones, posting an 8-4 ATS record in the role. Arkansas State is the better team and still has an outside shot at bowl eligibility. With five losses, Louisiana-Monroe is playing out the string and will drop their fourteenth in a row to the Red Wolves on Saturday. 

Georgia Tech +11.5 North Carolina

The Yellow Jackets have been a simple handicap under Brent Key. They are great as underdogs and awful as favorites. Under Key, the Yellow Jackets are 8-2 ATS as an underdog, with five outright wins. Meanwhile, they are 0-4 ATS as a favorite and have not won a single game on the field! The Yellow Jackets move the ball well, ranking just behind North Carolina in yards per play in ACC games (6.32 to 6.31). When he is not turning the ball over as he was last week, Haynes King is dual-threat quarterback. King rushed for 150 yards last week in their loss to Boston College and should be able to pick up a few first downs to keep drives alive against the Tar Heels. North Carolina still has a shot at the ACC Championship Game, but their playoff hopes were severely damaged in their home loss to Virginia last week. A flat performance would not surprise me. Plus, despite the different trajectories of these two programs, Georgia Tech has actually won the last two games in this series. They entered both contests as double digit underdogs off a loss. North Carolina is the better team, but this is too many points. 

New Mexico +1 Nevada

The Lobos and Wolfpack both broke long conference droughts last week. Both teams finished winless in the Mountain West last year and New Mexico broke a fourteen game conference skid while Nevada halted theirs at a much more respectable ten. However, they did it in drastically different ways. New Mexico won a high-scoring affair, dropping 42 points on Hawaii, while Nevada shut out San Diego State and won while failing to score an offensive touchdown. That offensive capability is why I like New Mexico in this spot. The Lobos have scored 92 points in their three conference games while Nevada has scored just 42. Their defensive display against San Diego State came out of nowhere as they held the Aztecs under four yards per play. Each of their previous six opponents, including Idaho of the FCS had averaged at least six and half yards per play against the Wolfpack. I'm a little wary backing the Lobos on the road, with their leaky defense, but they should be able to score enough to win back to back league games for the first time since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VIII

After a more than a month, we finally got back in the win column. The overall record still sucks, but lets see if we can make some progress on that front. 

Last Week: 4-3

Overall: 20-28-1

Navy +10.5 Air Force

Halfway through the 2023 season, Air Force has to be the favorite to emerge as the highest ranked Group of Five team and play in a New Year's Six Bowl. The Falcons are 6-0 and likely to be favored in every game they play the rest of the way with the possible exception of the finale at Boise State. This role is nothing new for Air Force. The Falcons were favored in every regular season game they played last year (underdog to Baylor in their bowl game) and were an underdog just once in 2021. The Falcons have lost six times as a betting favorite since start of the 2021 season including twice as a double digit favorite. Are the Falcons poised to fall out of the sky once again as a big favorite? I think they might be. For starters, the Midshipmen and Falcons are very familiar with each other, playing each season as two thirds of the participants in the battle for the Commander in Chief's Trophy. Under head coach Troy Calhoun, the Falcons are 8-8 against Navy, but just 2-6 in Annapolis. They won big the last time they were here two years ago as about a touchdown favorite, but this is just the third time they have been favored at Navy under Calhoun. In addition, their standout quarterback Zac Larrier suffered an injury last week against Wyoming and will miss this game. Navy is also dealing with quarterback injuries, but the drop off between Larrier and his backup is likely much greater than the gap between the Navy quarterbacks that have split time this season. Navy is also better defensively than they were in the final years of the Ken Niumatalolo regime. In 2021 and 2022, Navy ranked eleventh (second to last) in the AAC in yards allowed per play in league games. Halfway through the 2023 season, they rank a mediocre eighth in that statistic. Service academy games seem to always be close, so with a double digit spread and injury concerns for the favorite, the underdog is the play. 

UAB +6.5 Memphis

I thought Memphis had a chance to win the AAC this season. The Tigers had an experienced quarterback, a manageable conference schedule, and were getting last year's champ (Tulane) at home. The Tigers started 4-1, with their lone loss coming to a currently ranked SEC team (Missouri), but their failure to beat Tulane at home last week called into question their good start. The Tigers four wins include an FCS team, a bad Group of Five opponent that had yet to make a needed quarterback change (Arkansas State), Navy, and Boise State. The Navy and Boise State games were decided by four and three points respectively with the margin against Boise State coming on a short blocked field goal return touchdown. The Tigers aren't as good as I thought they would be and they have done performed poorly on the road under head coach Ryan Silverfield. Under Silverfield, the Tigers are just 2-5 ATS as a road favorite. In addition, they are an unthinkable 2-10 straight up in road conference games! UAB has been up and down in their first season under Trent Dilfer, but the Blazers are playing at home and have nothing to lose while Memphis has seen their conference title dreams take a significant hit. Take the Blazers and the points. 

Miami (Ohio) +2 Toledo

This might be the game of the year in the MAC and a preview of the conference title game. So thank goodness it is not consigned to ESPN+. You can watch this one on your terrestrial ESPNU channel so there is no need for boomer mid-westerners to ask their kids or grandkids to hook ESPN+ up to the main television. These two teams have not received an iota of attention from the national media, but the winner will probably receive a few sundry votes in the next AP Poll. Had Toledo held on to beat Illinois in their opener, they would probably be ranked. But such is the challenge for Group of Five college football programs. Lose once and the nation forgets about you unless you win your next ten. Still, for my money this is the best and most exciting game in the mid-afternoon window (third Saturday in October be damned). As for handicapping this game, I like the Redhawks because they have been one of the best MAC home teams of the past half-decade. Under Chuck Martin, they are 23-11 straight up in MAC home games, but 15-3 in such games since the start of the 2018 season. They are also 9-5-1 ATS as a home underdog under Martin, including 5-1 ATS since 2018. Plus I think this game means more to Miami. The Redhawks travel to Ohio next week and need to bank all the league wins they can. Meanwhile, Toledo already has a head to head win against their biggest division rival (Northern Illinois) and a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. 

Hawaii -1 New Mexico

Before the season started, I was somewhat optimistic about New Mexico's chances of fielding a competitive team in the Mountain West. The Lobos were historically bad on offense last season and brought in a quality transfer quarterback along with his offensive coordinator. They had also quietly posted a solid first half point differential last season, which is often indicative of improvement the following season. The offense has improved in 2023, with the Lobos more than doubling their per game scoring output from last season. However, the defense has fallen off a cliff. The Lobos are allowing over 34 points per game and if we remove their FCS contest, that number jumps to 39 points per game. The Lobos have also continued to struggle in the second half of games. If we ignore their games against teams they had no shot to defeat (Texas A&M) and teams they were heavily favored against (Tennessee Tech), and focus solely on their four games against similar opponents (Massachusetts, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Wyoming), the Lobos have performed admirably in the first half. They have outscored those four opponents by a combined seven points in their first half. In all four games, they were never trailing by more than a touchdown at halftime. However, in the second half of those four games, the Lobos have been outscored by 54 total points. They have not won a single second half and nearly blew a two touchdown lead at Massachusetts before prevailing in overtime. Hawaii has been competitive in their second season under local legend Timmy Chang and are poised to win their first road game since 2021. Take the Rainbow Warriors. 

Florida Atlantic +3 Texas-San Antonio

On the surface, things appear to be back to normal for the Roadrunners since Frank Harris returned from injury two weeks ago. The AAC newcomers have won their first two league games by multiple scores while putting up 90 combined points. But if you dig a little deeper into those box scores, things may not be going quite as well as they seem. UTSA was outgained by both Temple and UAB, but the Roadrunners were +2 in turnovers in both games. Three of the five turnovers they forced in those two games led directly to short touchdown drives of less than twenty yards (two gave them goal to go opportunities). Turnovers are great for winning games, but less so for predicting the future. If the Roadrunners finish +2 in turnovers in this game, there is a great shot they cover this small number. But turnovers are a fickle mistress and I think they have inflated this line in favor of UTSA. In addition, Tom Herman has been fantastic as a home underdog in his previous stops at Houston and Texas (4-1 ATS in the role). I'll back him again in one of his favorite spots and call for an outright upset by the Owls. 

Old Dominion +6.5 Appalachian State

It feels like the end may be coming for Shawn Clark at Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are a proud program and do not stand for mediocrity. And, over the last year and a half, the Mountaineers have been mediocre or worse. Clark began his career in Boone 19-5. However, since the start of the 2021 postseason (Sun Belt Championship Game), the Mountaineers are just 9-11 (6-11 versus FBS opponents!). Perhaps its just a run of bad luck as the Mountaineers are just 3-9 in one-score games in that span. But this year, the defense has fallen off a cliff. The Mountaineers have allowed over seven yards per play to their first two Sun Belt opponents. They lost on a last second field goal to Coastal Carolina, but were fortunate to escape Louisiana-Monroe on a field goal of their own the game prior. The Sun Belt is a highly competitive league, so it would not be surprising to see Appalachian State finish 6-6 or worse for a second consecutive year. The Mountaineers have also been bad on the road under Clark, posting a 3-10-1 ATS mark as a road favorite with seven outright losses. In addition, their only road victory since upsetting a top ten Texas A&M team last year was by one point at Louisiana-Monroe a few weeks ago. After bottoming out at 3-9 last season, Old Dominion has already matched their win total halfway through 2023. They have already pulled one outright home upset against a conference opponent this season and also put a major scare into an ACC team in Norfolk. Take the Monarchs to cover this number and don't be surprised if they win outright. 

UNLV -8 Colorado State

This is a massive game for both teams. UNLV is 5-1 and on the precipice of receiving votes in the AP Poll. The Rebels have never been ranked in their history and considering their pedigree, they are a long shot to bust into the poll. However, they have a great shot at playing in just their third bowl game this century, and despite a back-loaded schedule, have an outside shot at playing in the Mountain West Championship Game. Meanwhile, Colorado State has won three of four after an 0-2 start and the Rams have designs on their first bowl bid since 2017. The Rams staged a miraculous rally on Saturday night to upset Boise State. Down twenty with under five minutes to go, the Rams scored, recovered an onside kick, scored, nearly recovered another onside kick, and completed a Hail Mary at the gun to win. It helped that Boise head coach Andy Avalos was asleep at the wheel when the Broncos scored a touchdown to go up nineteen with about six minutes to go in the game. The Broncos should have gone for two as a conversion would have given them a full three touchdown lead. But I digress. While the rally is great for their bowl hopes, it also masked their offensive struggles. The Rams had scored ten points through 90% of the ball game. That came one week after turnovers and special teams plays helped them build a 17-0 lead against Utah State. The Rams would score just seven more points en route to a blowout loss to the Aggies. Colorado State is one dimensional on offense, as they average under three yards per carry despite allowing only nine sacks on the season. Freshman quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has made some big plays, but befitting his youth and inexperience, he has also thrown eleven interceptions. Colorado State is 2-7 on the road under Jay Norvell, with six of the seven losses coming by double digits. UNLV has scored at least forty points in every game this season when they did not play Michigan. I expect another great offensive showing by the Rebels and a double digit win. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VII

Egads. The first week of October did not go any better for us. Our yearly record is quite poor, so the goal of 55% is probably out of the question. Best we can hope for is to get back to .500 by the end of the year. As always, home teams in bold. 

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 16-25-1

Kent State +9 Eastern Michigan

If I've written it once on this blog, I've written it a thousand times. Chris Creighton is one of the best coaches in college football and his teams are a virtual ATM when catching points. However, they are much less reliable when laying points. Under Creighton, the Eagles are 6-13 ATS as a home favorite with ten outright losses. The Eagles covered last week as a small home favorite against Ball State, but that fourteen point margin was a bit misleading. Eastern Michigan was outgained and averaged under four yards per play. Two turnovers by the Cardinals and three fourth down stops by Eastern Michigan flipped that game. There is a lot of parity in the MAC and Eastern Michigan represents by far the weakest FBS team Kent State has faced this season. In the non-conference, they faced two Power Five teams on the road (Arkansas and UCF) as well as the a solid Mountain West team (Fresno State). Then to open league play, they faced the two best teams in their division (Miami and Ohio). Kent State is not a good team, but neither is Eastern Michigan, so so I expect a tight game. Gobble up those nine points with the Golden Flashes. 

Georgia Southern +6 James Madison

The transition to FBS has not been a problem for James Madison. The Dukes won their first five games as an FBS team last season on their way to an 8-3 finish and are 5-0 once again. While the Dukes have stacked wins, their margin has not been great. Their four wins against FBS teams have come by a combined eighteen points. Give the Dukes credit though, as they have managed to win several different types of games. They won a shootout at Virginia, a defensive struggle at Troy, and a pair of blowouts that turned tight against Utah State and South Alabama. The Dukes have been great against the run, holding their opponents to under two yards per rush when including for sacks. They lead the nation in sacks per game, having totaled 23 through their first five contests. However, when opposing quarterbacks don't get tackled in the backfield, they have managed to move the ball against the Dukes. Their four FBS opponents have averaged 8.25 yards per pass against their secondary. That may play right into the hands of the pass happy Eagles from Statesboro. The Eagles throw the ball more than any team in FBS (over 49 passes per game) and have allowed only eleven sacks on the season. Were this game played a few years ago when Georgia Southern ran the triple option, the Dukes would be poised to shut it down. However, playing against the new look Eagles, I expect the Dukes to give up quite a few yards through the air. James Madison may prevail, but it will be close. 

Oklahoma State +3 Kansas

This is an historic moment for Kansas football. Earlier this season, Kansas was a road favorite against Nevada. But this week, they are road favorites in a conference game for the first time since 2009! A child born the last time Kansas was favored in a Big 12 road game would be entering high school now! For what its worth, Kansas has been a road favorite five times since their Orange Bowl run in 2007. They are 1-4 ATS in those games with two outright losses and two wins by a touchdown or less. At 5-1, Kansas appears to be headed to a bowl game for a second consecutive season, and while the offense continues to be among the best in the Big 12, the team has been somewhat fortunate in the early going. They have scored three non-offensive touchdowns in their first three league games (an interception and fumble return against BYU and a punt return against UCF) and are +4 in turnovers in those Big 12 games. Meanwhile, after an embarrassing home loss to South Alabama, Oklahoma State seems to be back on track, losing a tight game in Ames and beating the reigning Big 12 champ at home. This won't go down as Mike Gundy's best team, but the Cowboys should be able to get to yet another bowl game (18th straight). The Cowboys are mediocre as a home underdog under Gundy (11-11-2 ATS), but as you might guess, most of those games came early in his tenure. In his first six seasons (2005-2010), the Cowboys were just 4-6-2 as a home underdog). However, since 2011, they are 7-5 ATS in the role, with two of the non-covers coming against Oklahoma. In addition, since 2016, they are 6-1 ATS as a home underdog with six outright wins (lone loss came to Oklahoma). This is an unfamiliar spot for Kansas, so back the home underdog. 

Bowling Green +4 Buffalo

A few weeks ago, I wrote there were three good teams in the MAC (Miami, Ohio, and Toledo) and nine teams of varying forms of trash. Despite Bowling Green's road win against Georgia Tech and Buffalo's two-game winning streak, I stand by that statement. After scoring 38 points against Georgia Tech and getting their defensive coordinator demoted, the Falcons were shutout by Miami. The loss dropped the Falcons to 2-4, but their schedule has been arduous. They have faced two unbeaten teams in the non-conference (Liberty and Michigan) as well as two of the best teams in the MAC (Miami and Ohio). And of course, the aforementioned Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, Buffalo has eased into MAC play with games against Akron and Central Michigan. The Bulls were taken to overtime by the woeful Zips and their big victory against Central Michigan was aided by four turnovers and two defensive touchdowns. Bowling Green is probably the better team and this spread should be much close to a pick 'em. Take the Falcons and the points. 

Kansas State +1.5 Texas Tech

When Nebraska and Colorado left the Big 12 in 2011, the conference scrapped divisions and instituted a true round-robin schedule. Thus, Kansas State and Texas Tech have played each of the past twelve seasons. In that span, Kansas State is 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS. They have been successful in both Manhattan and Lubbock, winning five of the six games at Texas Tech with their only loss coming in 2015. Texas Tech has rebounded from their 1-3 start, winning their last two games in blowout fashion. However, those victories have come against Houston and Baylor, two teams that have combined for three FBS wins between them. Based on the series history, the play is Kansas State. 

Wyoming +10.5 Air Force

The winner of this game will have the inside track to the Mountain West Championship Game. If the winner happens to be Air Force, it may be time to consider the Falcons the favorite to emerge from the Group of Five and be selected for a New Year's Six bowl game. The Falcons, along with the Flames of Liberty and the Dukes of James Madison, are the only remaining unbeaten teams from the G5. James Madison is ineligible for the postseason and Liberty plays in arguably the weakest FBS conference, so an undefeated Air Force would practically be a shoe in for the NY6. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Should the Falcons really be this large a favorite against a solid Wyoming team? The Mountain West scrapped divisions prior to the season, but in the before times, both the Cowboys and Falcons were members of the Mountain Division, meaning they played each other once a year. Troy Calhoun has been at Air Force for seventeen seasons and is creeping up on Fisher DeBerry in terms of tenure at the academy. Craig Bohl is in his tenth season at Wyoming, so these two coaches are very familiar with each other. Since Bohl arrived in Laramie, the Cowboys are 5-3 against the Falcons despite being underdogs seven times. Bohl's teams have done a good job of holding Air Force triple option in check. The Falcons have averaged just over 21 points per game in the eight contests (22 points per game at home) and have never scored more than 31. Wyoming has been tested in the first half of their schedule, facing two Big 12 teams (Texas and Texas Tech), Appalachian State, and Fresno State. Air Force has had it much easier through their first five games, with their best opponent probably being Utah State. These teams are 27th and 28th in the latest edition of the AP Poll, so hopefully the winner moves into the actual top 25. Befitting teams bunched so tightly in the rankings, I expect a close game. 

Southern Cal +2.5 Notre Dame

I rarely like to back teams like Southern Cal since they tend to be overvalued by the betting market. But I think this week might be the time to buy them. The Trojans have won their first six games against a slate of bad to mediocre teams. Either Arizona or Colorado is the best team they have beaten and both those victories were close. With those two tight wins, the Trojans are now 6-2 (6-1 in the regular season) in one-score games under Lincoln Riley. The offense, led by reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams is fantastic, but the defense is still bad. After a solid two-week showing against Stanford and Nevada, the Trojans have allowed 110 points the past three weeks (just 97 in regulation though). Now the schedule ramps up significantly in difficulty. Five of their final six opponents, including the Irish, are currently ranked in the AP Poll. I don't think they will make it through unscathed, but I think the wrong team is favored here. While Southern Cal is just beginning their gauntlet, Notre Dame is facing their fourth consecutive Power Five opponent. The Irish lost a heartbreaker to Ohio State, escaped at Duke, and were humbled by Louisville last week. How much do they have in the tank knowing their hopes of a spot in the College Football Playoff are dashed? Under Marcus Freeman, the Irish are just 1-5 ATS as a home favorite with the lone cover coming against a bad Boston College team last season. On the other sideline, Lincoln Riley has been an underdog four times in his career in the regular season (all on the road). His teams have covered in all four games and won outright twice. Anytime you can back the best player in college football catching a field goal, you have to do it. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week VI

Time to burn the film for the first month of play. That was a horrendous five weeks of picks. We have eight more regular season weeks, a championship weekend, and bowl season to dig out of this hole. Let's get started. 

Last Week: 2-5

Overall: 14-20-1

Missouri +5.5 LSU

After last week's defensive debacle in Oxford and their poor defensive showing two weeks ago against Arkansas in Baton Rouge, I figured the betting market would sour on LSU. That does not appear to be the case. The Tigers are still laying nearly a touchdown on the road against a more than competent conference foe. LSU is 1-3 ATS as a SEC road favorite under Brian Kelly, covering earlier this season against a bad Mississippi State team, but otherwise playing underwhelming football. Meanwhile, Missouri is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog under Eli Drinkwitz and appears to be the biggest potential challenger to Georgia in the SEC East. Remember the name Luther Burden. Missouri's wide receive leads the nation with 644 yards through five games and with LSU's recent pass defense showings (nearly 700 yards at over nine yards per throw over the past two games), Burden could put up some serious fantasy numbers. After this game, LSU gets five of their last six at home (road trip to Tuscaloosa), but they may already have two conference defeats. 

Temple +14 Texas-San Antonio

Someone has to explain this spread to me. Two weeks ago, Temple was roughly a twenty-four point home underdog to Miami. As expected, the Owls did not acquit themselves well in that game, losing 41-7. Now, two weeks later, the Owls are fourteen points underdogs to a UTSA team that has not played well a month into the 2023 season. The Roadrunners are probably getting Frank Harris back, which should be a boon to their bowl hopes, but that implies this version of the Roadrunners would be a ten-point underdog to Miami on a neutral field. I find that hard to believe. To further bolster the case for taking the Owls, consider that UTSA has not scored more than 29 points in any single game this season. To cover a two touchdown point spread, a team needs to score. As I mentioned, quarterback Frank Harris has missed time this season, but in the two games he started, the Roadrunners scored fourteen and twenty points against teams that are allowing nearly thirty points per game on the season. Temple is a bad team, but this spread is simply too high. 

Virginia Tech +24 Florida State

Despite three regular season losses, Florida State was dominant last season. Their YPP Net was head and shoulders above the rest of the ACC. I thought they were a darkhorse national title contender heading into the season and I was not alone. Despite their undefeated record and seemingly assured spot in the ACC Championship Game, the Seminoles are not nearly as good as they were last season. Florida State beat LSU to open the season for the second consecutive year, but that game was much closer on the field than the three touchdown final margin would indicate. They followed that victory up with a bludgeoning of Southern Miss. While the victory was impressive, Southern Miss has not beaten an FBS team this season. Then Florida State struggled in their first two ACC games, nearly blowing a big lead against Boston College before beating Clemson on the road in overtime. While the Seminoles are 2-0 in ACC play, their YPP Net is zero. This means the Seminoles have averaged the exact same yards per play as their first two ACC opponents. Both those games came on the road, so we should give Florida State some extra credit there, but the team is not as dominant as they were last season. In fact, you could argue their dominance faded once conference play ended last year. In their past five games against Power Five opponents which includes last year's regular season finale against Florida, the bowl game against Oklahoma, and their three games this season against LSU, Boston College, and Clemson, the Seminoles have averaged 6.85 yards per play (good) and allowed 6.14 yards per play (not good). While two of those games came against LSU and Clemson this season, two also came against Florida and Oklahoma last season (combined 12-14 record) and Boston College this season. The Seminoles have won all five games, but outside of their three touchdown victory against LSU, the other four have all come by one score. Florida State entered as a prohibitive favorite in three of those four games (all but Clemson) and failed to cover in all three. Perhaps I am putting to much stock into Virginia Tech's home victory against a cratering Pitt team, and if my year to date record is any indication, I probably am, but Florida State feels like a team you should be fading. 

Akron +6.5 Northern Illinois

One week after foolishly backing the Zips as a favorite, I am back on board with them in their preferred role as an underdog. While Akron is just 1-14 straight up against FBS teams under Joe Moorhead, the Zips are 9-5 ATS as an underdog. If there is a game to lose, the Zips will certainly lose it, but it will be close. The Zips are 1-8 in MAC play under Moorhead, but six of the eight defeats have come by a touchdown or less and three have come by a field goal or less. Plus, their only league win under Moorhead came in their penultimate game last season against...Northern Illinois. The Zips scored 42 points in that game against the Huskies with Jeff Undercuffler throwing for a career high 312 yards. Undercuffler will be getting the start once again as DJ Irons is out with a torn ACL. While Irons is more athletic, the offense never really got going with him this season (averaging seventeen points per game), so there may not be much of a drop off, if any. Northern Illinois has also been bad as a road favorite under Thomas Hammock, posting a 1-4 ATS mark with four outright losses. In addition, this is the most points they have been laying on the road under Hammock. I expect the Zips to play well enough on defense to lose yet another close game. 

Arkansas State +17 Troy

One of my few good calls last week was Arkansas State catching a small number on the road against Massachusetts. The Red Wolves dropped 52 points on the Minutemen in their largest margin of victory against an FBS opponent under Butch Jones. The difficulty level increases significantly this weekend as the Red Wolves face the defending Sun Belt champs. Troy dropped two of their first three games, but have won two in a row and are looking to repeat their 2022 pattern of opening 1-2 and winning out. Troy continues to play remarkable defense at the Group of Five level, holding each of their three FBS G5 opponents under 300 yards of total offense. Even against a talented young quarterback like Jaylen Raynor, Troy should win this game. However, this is a very large spread and I don't think Troy's offense will be able to hold up their end of the bargain. To cover this spread, Troy will probably need to score thirty or more points. They have yet to do so against an FBS opponent in 2023 despite facing both Western Kentucky and Georgia State. Western Kentucky's defense is bad and Georgia State's is at beast average by Sun Belt standards. The Trojans scored 24 and 28 points respectively in those two games and one of their touchdowns against Western Kentucky came on an end of half Hail Mary. If this spread were under two touchdowns, I would be inclined to stay away, but seventeen points is too many. The Red Wolves were so bad in their first two games of the season, the market has yet to correct for their recent general competency. The Red Wolves will keep this one close as they push toward saving their head coaches' job. 

Louisiana-Monroe +11 South Alabama

While they have yet to play in a bowl game and their overall record is just 10-18, the Warhawks have become a tough out, especially at home under Terry Bowden. The Warhawks have mostly rolled over against the Power Five opponents they have faced (1-4 ATS with the closest loss coming by thirteen points), but they have scared more than their fair share of Sun Belt and other Group of Five foes. Including last week's near miss against Appalachian State, the Warhawks are 7-2 ATS as a home underdog with five outright wins. One of those outright upsets came two years ago against these same Jaguars. The Warhawks entered as a nearly two touchdown home underdog, but prevailed 41-31. In fact, South Alabama has yet to beat the Warhawks in Monroe, posting an 0-4 all-time record. The co-favorite in the Sun Belt West, the Jaguars have had a weird season. They dominated Oklahoma State in Stillwater, but lost at home the following week to Central Michigan. The Jaguars already have a conference loss, so if they have any designs on playing in their first Sun Belt Championship Game, they must win here. However, the series history and Monroe's track record as a home underdog make them the play. 

Iowa State +6.5 TCU

When handicapping a game, especially a conference game, one of the things I like to look at is the series history. TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012 and the Horned Frogs and Cyclones have played each season. TCU has a slight straight up edge, winning six of the eleven games. However, the Cyclones have dominated this series in terms of ATS, going 8-2-1 against the betting market. The numbers are especially pronounced in games played in Ames. Iowa State is 3-2 straight up, with wins in each of the last three game and a perfect 5-0 ATS. As previously mentioned, TCU has covered only two times in this series and both of those covers came in regular season finales featuring playoff caliber TCU teams (2014 and 2022) against Iowa State teams that finished with losing records. Iowa State is 10-5-1 ATS as a home underdog under Matt Campbell and has not lost to TCU in Ames since 2015. This Horned Frogs team is good, but not up to the standards of the 2014 and 2022 edition. Take the Cyclones to cover and don't be surprised if they make it four straight against the Horned Frogs in Ames.