2023 Yards Per Play: Big 12

Before we get started this week, I wanted to take a moment to mention the passing of legendary college basketball coach Lefty Driesell. For the unfamiliar, Lefty was a favorite coach of mine and the inspiration for both my old AIM screen name and the address of this blog. Obviously, as a naive 23 year old, SEO optimization did not enter my mind. Before he retired, I was able to see Lefty coach in person at the Charlotte Coliseum in December 2001. Hard to believe that was nearly a quarter century ago, but time keeps rolling along. But enough about me, lets get to why you came here in the first place, a look back the Big 12. 

Here are the 2023 Big 12 standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Big 12 team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the Big 12 met this threshold? Here are Big 12 teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Conference championship game participant Oklahoma State (more on them later) significantly exceeded their expected record based on YPP while TCU and UCF underachieved relative to their YPP numbers. Oklahoma State was left for dead after a lackluster non-conference performance that included a close win at Arizona State and a blowout home loss to South Alabama. After a close loss to Iowa State to open conference play, it seemed like Mike Gundy might finally be on his way out in Stillwater. But the Cowboys won their next five conference games (with three coming by one-score) before getting waxed by UCF. At 5-2 and holding the tiebreaker over Oklahoma thanks to their head to head win in Bedlam, the Cowboys pulled off consecutive second half comebacks against Houston (trailed by 14 in the second quarter) and BYU (trailed by 18 at the half) to qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game. The Cowboys finished 4-1 in one-score conference games and had a decent turnover margin in Big 12 play (+4). Close games pushed the Cowboys to the pinnacle of the Big 12, but they kept TCU and UCF near the bottom of the league standings. One season after holding a horseshoe and four-leaf clover, TCU's good fortune flipped. The Horned Frogs finished 0-3 in one-score conference games (0-4 overall thanks to their opening loss to Colorado) and had the worst in-conference turnover margin in the Big 12 (-8). This kept them home for the holidays one season after they finished as the national runner up. UCF also fared poorly in one-score conference games, posting a 1-3 mark in such games. Their close game losses were especially tight, with two of the defeats coming by a single point and another coming by two points. 

Underwater in Championship Games

Doing away with divisions is probably a good thing for college football. I say probably because a team's geographic location should not arbitrarily make their path to the conference title game easier or nigh impossible (see the Big 10 for instance). However, doing away with divisions also ensures teams like Purdue, Duke, or Wake Forest will not be making conference title appearances for a very long time. Conferences obviously want their best teams to qualify for the championship game because it usually means a better game, more ticket sales, a higher television rating, and beginning in 2024, an opportunity to secure multiple CFP bids. But I'm an egalitarian (and a Wake Forest fan) so I think it rules when Purdue, Duke, or Wake randomly shows up on Championship Saturday. But I'm not here to argue for or against divisions. No, I'm here to point out a statistical anomaly. 

With unbalanced divisions, its easier for a (statistically) mediocre or bad team to qualify for the conference championship game. With an easy schedule, a few lucky bounces, a tiebreaker, and a small sample size (eight or nine game league schedule) a team that is statistically weak can finish ahead of six or seven other teams in a division. But without divisions, that same team would need to finish ahead of twice as many teams to qualify for the conference championship game. And that is exactly what Oklahoma State did in 2023. The Cowboys finished with a Net YPP of -0.27 and became just the second team to qualify for a conference championship game in a league without divisions with a negative Net YPP. The other team to do so also played in the Big 12. 

Division-less conferences have not been around for very long. By my count there have been 19 such seasons (see below), but the Big 10 and SEC are nixing divisions in 2024, meaning all the power conferences will be free-for-alls. The MAC also announced they will not have divisions in 2024, leaving the Sun Belt as the lone holdout. As leagues expand and divisions go away, I expect we will see fewer and fewer teams get to their respective conference title games with negative Net YPPs. Cherish Oklahoma State's 2023 accomplishment for its rarity!

2023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: Big 10

Last week we looked at how Big 10 teams fared in terms of yards per play.his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. 

Once again, here are the 2023 Big 10 standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, Big 10 teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Using a game and a half as the standard for significant over or underachievement, no Big 10 team saw their actual record differ significantly from their APR. 

Losing Teams in Bowl Games

As the bowl schedule has expanded in recent years, more losing teams are finding their way into postseason games. Some may lament the mediocrity (or worse) of their inclusion and hearken back to the days of exclusivity in bowl games. Personally, I don't mind more college football (we don't have any games for roughly eight months out of the year), but to each his own. I'm not here to try and convince you a five win team playing in Detroit the day after Christmas is good (or bad). On the contrary, I want to see if there is any angle where we can make some extra money to pay off those holiday bills. 

In the BCS/College Football Playoff Era, nineteen teams have participated in a bowl game despite owning a losing record entering the game. Those teams have ranged from champions of brand new conferences (North Texas in 2001), to also-rans from the SEC (Mississippi State in 2016), to a glut of teams willing to play postseason exhibitions in a global pandemic. How have these teams fared both straight up and against the spread? Read on to find out!

Those nineteen teams finished with a 10-9 straight up record. Basically, they have been a coin flip to win outright in their bowl games. However, in those nineteen games, they entered as betting underdogs thirteen times meaning we would not have expected them to finish with a winning record. Nineteen games is a small sample, but these losing teams have overachieved at least relative to the moneyline. In addition, motivation does not appear to be an issue for these losing teams. They have won five of the six games in which they entered as favorites. Alas, there does not appear to be a solid ATS trend to take away from this examination. Their cumulative ATS record has also amounted to a coin flip with the teams combing for a 9-10 mark (3-3 ATS as a favorite and 6-7 ATS as an underdog). 

Unfortunately, there has not been an overarching trend when it comes to betting on or against losing teams in bowl games. My advice is to handicap their games as you would any bowl team. Focus on how they played in the regular season, keep tabs on their opt outs and coaching changes, and don't be afraid to back them on the moneyline if they enter as underdogs. 

2023 Yards Per Play: Big 10

Two conferences down. Eight to go. We head (mid) west this week and examine the Big 10. 

Here are the 2023 Big 10 standings. 

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each Big 10 team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by division by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the Big 10 met this threshold? Here are Big 10 teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Iowa and Michigan significantly exceeded their expected record based on YPP while Nebraska and Illinois underachieved. Iowa and Michigan combined to finish 6-1 in one-score conference games and the Wolverines finished with the second best in-conference turnover margin (+15) in the Big 10. Meanwhile, Illinois and Nebraska has the two worst in-conference turnover margins in the Big 10 with the Illini finishing seven turnovers in the hole while Nebraska turned the ball over fifteen more times than their league foes. The Cornhuskers also finished 1-5 in one-score conference games, continuing an incredible trend I shall henceforth refer to as the Curse of Bo Pelini. 

Outliers

Iowa was bad on offense in 2023. That is not a controversial or surprising statement. Their nepo offensive coordinator was under fire before the season began thanks to their lackluster performance throughout his tenure. In order to keep his job, the Iowa offense had to average at least 25 points per game in 2023. That number included any points scored by the defense or special teams which have been fantastic over the past few seasons. The Hawkeyes just missed their goal of 25 points per game by roughly ten points. Per game. Iowa averaged 15.4 points per game in 2023 and ranked second to last in scoring offense (only Kent State averaged less). As you may have noticed from the YPP table, their per play offensive numbers were also quite bad. The Hawkeyes averaged under four yards per play against Big 10 opponents (3.85). I have YPP numbers going back to 2005, and while the Hawkeyes cannot lay claim to having the worst per play conference offense of any BCS/Power Five team in that span (my alma mater actually holds the record with 3.06 in 2014), they are by far the most successful BCS/Power Five team with a dreadful offense. 

Including Iowa last season, 28 BCS/Power Five teams have averaged less than four yards per play in conference action since 2005. 26 of those 28 teams finished with losing conference records. Iowa, of course, won their division with a 7-2 mark last season and Vanderbilt eked out a 4-4 SEC record in 2008 while averaging 3.96 yards per play. Twelve of 28 teams finished winless in conference play, seven finished with one conference win, six won two league games, and UCLA in 2008 was the only team to win three (two of their three league wins came against teams that also averaged under four yards per play). Combined the 27 teams not named Iowa, finished 26-201 in conference play, averaging less than one league win! The Hawkeyes were not a great team in 2023, but they were one of the most unique teams in recent college football history. 

For the curious, all 28 BCS/Power Five teams that averaged under four yards per play are listed below along with their conference record. 

Non-BCS and Group of Five teams that averaged under four yards per play in conference action did not fare any better. In fact, they were a little worse. Since 2005, fourteen mid-major teams have averaged under four yards per play in league games. Those teams combined for a 9-101 conference record and no team won more than three league games. 

2023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: ACC

Last week we looked at how ACC teams fared in terms of yards per play.his week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. 

Once again, here are the 2023 ACC standings. 

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, ACC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Using the somewhat arbitrary standard of a game a half, no ACC teams significantly over or underachieved relative to their APR in 2023. 

More Than a Feeling

*Editors's Note

I write (or at least draft) these posts several days or weeks in advance, so this was written prior to Jeff Hafley taking the Green Bay defensive coordinator job. That's an interesting choice for the Packers considering the defenses Boston College put on the field. 

Is Boston College a team on the rise or are the Eagles destined to get their head coach fired after 2024? On the one hand, the Eagles rebounded from their first losing season under Jeff Hafley to finish 7-6 in 2023. They are led by a talented and mobile young quarterback in Thomas Castellanos. Castellanos passed for over 2000 yards and rushed for over 1000 yards while accounting for 28 total touchdowns. With another year of experience under his belt, the Eagles should move up a rung or two in the conference pecking order and be one of the better mid-level teams in the ACC. But on the other hand...

While the Eagles finished bowl-eligible in 2023, they won a lot of close games. Five of their six regular season wins came by a touchdown or less. And most of the teams they beat were not very good. They beat Holy Cross (a good FCS team) by three, Army by three, Virginia by three, Connecticut by seven, and Syracuse by seven. They did beat Georgia Tech by fifteen in Atlanta, but that was by far their best regular season performance outside of their near comeback against Florida State. They won a lot of close games against mediocre to bad teams. And while Castellanos played well in spurts, he was also very erratic. He tossed 14 interceptions on the season. Only three FBS quarterbacks threw more. And while Castellanos is young enough to expect improvement, the other side of the ball was in veritable shambles. In ACC action, the Eagles allowed nearly seven yards per play (6.99) and 34 touchdowns, both worst in the conference. But perhaps the biggest indictment toward any pro-Eagles optimism has been their Vegas power rating over the past few seasons. 

Their have been three full college football seasons since the 2020 campaign was impacted by Covid. During those three seasons, Las Vegas bookmakers have made the Eagles betting favorites in ACC play three times. That is easily the lowest total of any ACC team in that span. 

Only Virginia and Syracuse come close to the betting line futility Boston College has endured over the past three seasons (note Virginia has also played one fewer game as their ACC finale against Virginia Tech in 2022 was canceled). While the betting line and the betting market are not perfect indicators of team strength, they serve as a solid proxy for how good teams are. The line and the market are updated after each game so the evaluation of a team can look very different in November than it did in August. Despite being bowl-eligible in two of those three seasons, the market never warmed to the Eagles. Perhaps they will remain undervalued by the betting market in 2024, but I think this serves as a giant red flag and solid indicator to bet against Boston College, both in the preseason over/under win total market and the point spread market early next season. 

2023 Yards Per Play: ACC

We are ten percent of the way through out offseason previews. Next conference up is the ACC.

Here are the 2023 ACC standings.

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each ACC team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the ACC met this threshold? Here are ACC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

NC State and Florida State exceeded their expected record based on YPP, while Pittsburgh underachieved relative to their YPP numbers. For the Wolfpack and Seminoles, the reasons they exceeded their expected records are obvious. Both schools combined to finish 6-1 in one-score conference games and they were also the top two teams in terms of in-conference turnover margin in the ACC (at +10 and +6 respectively). As for Pittsburgh, I can't find anything in the stats that helps explain why their expected record differs so significantly from their actual record. The Panthers were not unlucky in close games (1-1) and their in-conference turnover margin was mediocre (-1). Their fourth down conversion rate and red zone touchdown rates were close to their opponents. They actually scored more non-offensive touchdowns (3) than they allowed (2) in ACC play. This one will remain a mystery. I suppose we can just lay the blame at the feet of Pat Narduzzi and his antiquated approach to offense. 

Moving On Up 

As you may have read or heard, the ACC has had some membership drama over the past year. I'm not a reporter and I am not in the business of making membership predictions, so I will be just as surprised as you when Clemson jumps to the Big 10 and the ACC replaces them with Memphis. Instead of dealing with hypotheticals, lets examine the universe as it is. 

When the Pac-12 died over the summer, the ACC tossed a life raft to Golden State nerd schools Cal and Stanford. Whether that life raft brought them on to a ship that was also sinking remains to be seen. While Cal and Stanford will be interesting fits in the ACC for however long the conference exists in its current incarnation, I think the more intriguing case is the third team from west of the Mississippi that is joining the league, the SMU Mustangs.

Before the term was coined, SMU was a member of a power conference. The Mustangs joined the Southwest Conference in 1918 and were members of the Texas cabal until the league dissolved after the 1995 season. SMU had a good run in the early 1980's, finishing ranked in each season from 1980 through 1984. That success was later deemed to be ill-gotten (check out the 30 for 30 film Pony Excess for details) and SMU was given the 'Death Penalty' for the reprehensible violation of paying college athletes. The 'Death Penalty' did its job and pretty much killed the SMU program. Thus, they were not a hot commodity when the Southwest Conference died and were forced to downgrade to the WAC (the nation's first Super Conference) in 1996. They have continued to bounce around since, joining Conference USA in 2005 and the AAC in 2013. Now, after nearly 30 years, they are back in a power conference. What then, are reasonable expectations in their first year in the 'big leagues'? To answer that, we look as we often do, to the past for guidance. 

Just a note before we dive into this, when I use the term 'power conference', I am referring to conferences that were part of the old BCS system and are now part of the Power Four (formerly Power Five) in the College Football Playoff era. SMU's move to the ACC marks the fifth time a power conference has drafted teams from non-power conferences to fill out its ranks. The first conference to do this was the Big East in 2004 and 2005. The league lost Miami and Virginia Tech to the ACC prior to the 2004 season and replaced them with a team in just their fifth year as an FBS program, the Connecticut Huskies. The following season, the Big East lost another team, Boston College, to the ACC and replaced the Eagles with three Conference USA teams (Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida). While this is technically two replacements, I'm grouping them together since they happened back to back in the same conference. How did those four newcomers perform?

Louisville and South Florida posted winning conference records in their first season in the Big East. And while these teams started out hot, Cincinnati had the most staying power in the league, posting winning conference records in six of their eight years as a member of the Big East. Collectively, these four teams combined to go 14-13 in their first season of Big East play. And while that is a winning record, it should be noted that only half the teams in the eight team league were power conference veterans (Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, and West Virginia). 

The next conference to bring a non-major conference team into their mix was the Pac-10 in 2011. The league added Colorado from the Big 12 and Utah from the Mountain West and rechristened themselves the Pac-12. Utah was a Mountain West power, but it took the Utes awhile to acclimate in their new league. 

The Utes posted losing conference records in each of their first three seasons in the Pac-12 before becoming a veritable power in the late aughts. The Utes played in four consecutive non-Covid Pac-12 Championship Games between 2018 and 2022, with the final two resulting in conference titles. 

The third conference to add a non-major team was the Big 12 which did so the very next season. The Big 12 brought West Virginia over from the Big East, but their non-major draft pick was TCU. The Horned Frogs were another Mountain West power, but they also struggled initially in their new home. 

The Horned Frogs had losing conference records in their first two seasons in the Big 12 and despite breaking through with a shared league title and near College Football Playoff bid in 2014, they have struggled to consistently win in league play, posting just five winning conference records in their twelve years in the league. 

After adding the Horned Frogs, the Big 12's membership was constant for a few years until the SEC surprised everyone and poached Oklahoma and Texas in the summer of 2021. The Sooners and Longhorns would remain in the league for three more seasons, but the Big 12 made plans to replace them by raiding the AAC. They brought over Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF in 2023 and augmented that trio with BYU which had been playing as an independent for more than a decade. However, to say those teams struggled when moving up is putting it lightly. 

The quartet combined for an 8-28 league record in 2023 and were just 4-24 against veteran Big 12 members. 

With that history, I think expectations should be muted for SMU, at least in their first season. The previous ten teams that moved up combined to finish 30-51 in league play in their first seasons in their new locales. Seven of the ten teams finished with losing conference records and the only teams that finished with winning records (Louisville and South Florida) played in a conference that was populated with other teams moving up. SMU finished ranked for the first time since 1984 and won the AAC last season, but they also finished 0-3 against Power Five opponents. All of those games came away from home and one was in a bowl where things can get weird. However, only one of those opponents could be classified as good. Oklahoma was top-fifteen last season, but TCU and Boston College were mid at best. SMU dominated their AAC opponents last season, but they only beat three teams that played in a bowl game (Rice, Memphis, and Tulane) The ACC is not the strongest power conference, but I think the Mustangs will struggle as they adjust to a more difficult schedule. If they win half their league games next season, I would consider that a success. 

2023 Adjusted Pythagorean Record: AAC

Last week we looked at how AAC teams fared in terms of yards per play. This week, we turn our attention to how the season played out in terms of the Adjusted Pythagorean Record, or APR. For an in-depth look at APR, click here. If you didn’t feel like clicking, here is the Reader’s Digest version. APR looks at how well a team scores and prevents touchdowns. Non-offensive touchdowns, field goals, extra points, and safeties are excluded. The ratio of offensive touchdowns to touchdowns allowed is converted into a winning percentage. Pretty simple actually. 

Once again, here are the 2023 AAC standings.

And here are the APR standings with conference rank in offensive touchdowns, touchdowns allowed, and APR in parentheses. This includes conference games only with the championship game excluded.

Finally, AAC teams are sorted by the difference between their actual number of wins and their expected number of wins according to APR.

Tulane won an incredible two and a half more games than we would have expected based on the ratio of their touchdowns scored and allowed in AAC play. The Green Wave also greatly exceeded their expected record based on YPP and we went over some reasons for that last week. Meanwhile Florida Atlantic won almost two fewer games than we would have expected based on their touchdown ratio. The Owls were not terrible in close games (1-2 in one-score league games) and they actually had a positive in-conference turnover margin (+3). So what was the reason for the disconnect between their actual record and their APR? Like UAB last week, I think the culprit is fourth down success. The Owls went for it on fourth down 25 times in AAC play and they converted those opportunities less than half the time (11). The Owls were particularly bad in their four-game losing streak to close the season. In that streak, they made 17 fourth down attempts and converted just six times. That amounts to eleven hidden turnovers over four games, two of which the Owls lost by three points apiece. 

Using the Preseason AP Poll to Make Conference Championship Game Bets

The title is straightforward and a bit of a mouthful, but it also serves as a good way to increase your bankroll when Championship Weekend rolls around. Allow me to explain. 

Three years a go, I wrote about how you can go about spotting a championship game blowout. The basic idea of the post is this: When handicapping college football championship games, one of the easiest (and most profitable) methods is to simply look at the preseason AP Poll. If one of the teams was ranked in the preseason AP Poll (particularly the top ten) and the other was not, betting on the team that was ranked in the preseason can usually lock in a profit for you. The table below lists the results for Power Five title games where one team was ranked in the preseason AP Poll and the other was not.

Those teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll have won more than 90% of championship games against teams that began the year unranked. While their ATS mark is not quite as strong, they have covered nearly twice as often as not. This situation played out twice in 2023. Florida State and Texas began the year ranked eighth and eleventh respectively in the preseason AP Poll and faced teams in their respective conference title games that were unranked in the preseason AP Poll (Louisville and Oklahoma State). The Seminoles (with their third string quarterback) and Longhorns both won and covered. 

If we look solely at teams that began the year in the top ten of the preseason AP Poll, the results are pretty similar. 

Those teams won their conference title game 93% of the time and covered over 64% of the time. 

Those were Power Five numbers. Does this trend hold at the Group of Five level? Glad you asked. As you may have guessed, teams from the Group of Five are much less likely to begin the season ranked in the preseason AP Poll. It's even less likely for said preseason ranked team to play in their conference title game against a team that was not in the preseason AP Poll. In fact, it has only happened seven times. 

Those seven teams won their conference title games over 70% of their time, but their ATS record was less definitive. This situation also played out in 2023 with Tulane facing SMU in the AAC Championship Game. Off a Cotton Bowl victory in 2022, the Green Wave were ranked in the preseason AP Poll, while SMU began the year unranked. Despite that difference, and despite the homefield advantage enjoyed by Tulane, the Mustangs dispatched the Green Wave to win their first conference title since 1984. 

So what should you do when making your championship game bets in December? For Power Five conferences, if you see a matchup between teams that fit these preseason ranked/unranked criteria, strongly consider backing the team ranked in the preseason AP Poll. If you can't pull the trigger, pass on the game, but under no circumstances should you back the team that began the season unranked. For Group of Five games, this law is much less ironclad, but if the Group of Five team was ranked in the preseason top ten of the AP Poll, they may be worth a look. 

2023 Yards Per Play: AAC

The college football season is over and the longest offseason in sports begins. To help you get through, we'll revisit all ten conferences as we have for the past seven years via conference only Yards Per Play numbers and the Adjusted Pythagorean Record to see which teams may have been better or worse than their actual record. We'll begin as we always do with the American Athletic Conference. 

Here are the 2023 AAC standings. 

So we know what each team achieved, but how did they perform? To answer that, here are the Yards Per Play (YPP), Yards Per Play Allowed (YPA) and Net Yards Per Play (Net) numbers for each AAC team. This includes conference play only, with the championship game not included. The teams are sorted by Net YPP with conference rank in parentheses.

College football teams play either eight or nine conference games. Consequently, their record in such a small sample may not be indicative of their quality of play. A few fortuitous bounces here or there can be the difference between another ho-hum campaign or a special season. Randomness and other factors outside of our perception play a role in determining the standings. It would be fantastic if college football teams played 100 or even 1000 games. Then we could have a better idea about which teams were really the best. Alas, players would miss too much class time, their bodies would be battered beyond recognition, and I would never leave the couch. As it is, we have to make do with the handful of games teams do play. In those games, we can learn a lot from a team’s YPP. Since 2005, I have collected YPP data for every conference. I use conference games only because teams play such divergent non-conference schedules and the teams within a conference tend to be of similar quality. By running a regression analysis between a team’s Net YPP (the difference between their Yards Per Play and Yards Per Play Allowed) and their conference winning percentage, we can see if Net YPP is a decent predictor of a team’s record. Spoiler alert. It is. For the statistically inclined, the correlation coefficient between a team’s Net YPP in conference play and their conference record is around .66. Since Net YPP is a solid predictor of a team’s conference record, we can use it to identify which teams had a significant disparity between their conference record as predicted by Net YPP and their actual conference record. I used a difference of .200 between predicted and actual winning percentage as the threshold for ‘significant’. Why .200? It is a little arbitrary, but .200 corresponds to a difference of 1.6 games over an eight game conference schedule and 1.8 games over a nine game one. Over or under-performing by more than a game and a half in a small sample seems significant to me. In the 2023 season, which teams in the AAC met this threshold? Here are AAC teams sorted by performance over what would be expected from their Net YPP numbers.

Tulane and Memphis exceeded their expected record based on YPP while UAB fell short of theirs. Tulane and Memphis won all (or at least most) of the close ones, finishing a combined 7-1 in one-score conference games. Meanwhile, UAB was not unlucky in one-score league games, finishing 1-1 in such contests. Turnover margin also doesn't do a good job of explaining the dissonance between their expected record based on YPP and their actual record. The Blazers had a mediocre -1 turnover margin in league play. Once you dig deeper though, you find the culprit was fourth down success and red zone scoring. The Blazers went for it 18 times on fourth down in conference play and converted exactly half the time. Their defense faced 24 fourth down attempts and allowed 16 conversions. That is roughly seven hidden turnovers spread out over the course of an eight game conference slate. While the Blazers were about average in terms of fourth down success on offense, they struggled mightily in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. They had 31 red zone drives in league play and scored touchdowns on less than half of them (15). Meanwhile, their defense allowed 41 red zone drives and opponents netted a touchdown nearly 70% of the time (28). The Trent Dilfer hire was widely mocked, but fourth down conversions and red zone success can shift in the blink of an eye. I wouldn't be shocked if UAB returned to the postseason and contended for the AAC crown next season. 

The Worst Unbeatens

Ugliest supermodel, poorest billionaire, flabbiest bodybuilder. These are pejoratives most people would happily embrace. When humans developed numbers to classify and group things, the natural consequence was that someone or something would inevitably be the worst of that group. And in 2023, the Tulane Green Wave became the worst college football team to finish unbeaten in conference play (since 2005 using by my preferred YPP metric among teams that played a full conference schedule). It doesn't sound quite as impressive with all those caveats, but believe me, it is. For your viewing and reminiscing pleasure, the ten worst teams by YPP to finish unbeaten in conference play since 2005. 

No team will probably ever top Southern Cal's shortened 2020 unbeaten run. The Trojans played just five league games as the Pac-12 initially canceled their football season before reversing course and playing an abbreviated schedule beginning in November. 

Nine of these unbeaten teams played in conference title games, and despite their middling YPP numbers, they performed quite admirably, especially when they did not face off against another unbeaten (Tulane and Kent State faced off against unbeaten SMU and Northern Illinois teams respectively). 

Collectively, the nine teams were 5-4 straight up in their respective conference title games and 6-2-1 ATS. When not facing another unbeaten, they were 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS. 

Tulane may have failed in their effort to capture a second consecutive league title and they were not as good as their unbeaten record might otherwise indicate. However, winning all your games in league play, no matter the competition, is something to celebrate. 

Strangers in the Field Part VIII: How'd We Do?

Another football season has come and (almost gone). But our bets have all been finalized. Unfortunately, there is nothing to sweat in the NFL in Week 18. Let's take a look back and see how the predictions from our Vegas trip went. 

Games of the Year

The first two games were over before kickoff. We nailed the third and some shenanigans on an extra point costs us the fourth game. 

College Football Win Totals

Not too shabby. Nailed almost 60% of 39 total wagers. 

NFL Win Totals

We swept our NFL plays. The Panthers and Rams were easy winners (somehow the Panthers had a higher preseason win total than the Rams), the Falcons was a toss up that went our way, and the Vikings bet won thanks to all their injuries. However, after all the injuries to the Ravens that went against us in 2021, I will not be apologizing for any injury good fortune the fates happen to throw my way. 

Miscellaneous 

The conference title bets were never close to coming to fruition although Memphis was in contention in the AAC until the penultimate regular season game. Tampa Bay and Texas went into slumps as soon as I made these bets. The Rangers did have a two game lead in the division with four to play, but dropped three of their final four games to give the division to the Astros. Of course, they naturally went 13-4 once the playoffs started and won the World Series. Not that I'm bitter. And we got three of five games right on the parlay, but that gets us nothing. 

Money Wagered: $2345

Money Won: $2494.80

ROI: 6.39%

We had our third consecutive winning season and while the ROI is not nearly as large as last year's (nearly 22%), we'll take it and go back to the lab so we can do it again next year. 

Next Thursday we begin our offseason recaps with the AAC. See you then!

The Magnificent Seven: Bowl Season

We definitely did not perform well enough to qualify for a bowl this season, but I did get pretty good grades in college so I guess we qualified based on APR. Anyway, here are seven bowl picks. Hopefully they can be a little better than the picks we made during the regular season.

Last Week: 1-2

Overall: 42-51-1

New Orleans Bowl @ New Orleans, Louisiana

Louisiana-Lafayette +2.5 Jacksonville State

Thanks to the general mediocrity in college football this season, Jacksonville State will be playing in their first bowl game in school history in their first season as an FBS program. The Gamecocks won eight games under Rich Rodriguez, but they did it in an unexpected way. The Gamecocks played fast, ranking ninth in the nation in plays per game (74), but they were not overly efficient. In league play, the Gamecocks ranked seventh of nine teams in Conference USA in yards per play, ahead of another FBS neophyte (Sam Houston State) and Florida International. The running game was strong (and high volume), but Gamecock quarterbacks combined to complete just over half their passes. Instead, the Gamecocks won with an aggressive, play-making defense. They allowed just over five yards per play in conference action (5.01), ranking first in Conference USA. They averaged three sacks per game (tenth nationally) and over seven tackles per loss per game (seventeenth nationally) while forcing 25 turnovers (third nationally). Can the Ragin' Cajuns do enough to protect their quarterback and avoid disastrous turnovers to win this game? Louisiana-Lafayette was mediocre in sacks allowed, ranking 57th nationally, but it would be a fool's errand to predict the turnover margin for an individual game (the Ragin' Cajuns were -3 in the regular season). The reason I am backing Louisiana-Lafayette is because of schedule strength and location. Louisiana-Lafayette did not face an arduous schedule, but Jacksonville State had a schedule tailor made for easing into FBS action. Including Jacksonville State, Conference USA had just four bowl eligible teams and the Gamecocks beat up on the dregs of the league in getting to eight victories. In non-conference play, they beat an FCS team (East Tennessee State) and a bad MAC team (Eastern Michigan) while losing to a mediocre Sun Belt team (Coastal Carolina) and losing to, but acquitting themselves well against a mediocre SEC team (South Carolina). Their best win is a three-point home victory against Western Kentucky. Their best road win is either Sam Houston State or Middle Tennessee State. Louisiana-Lafayette is better than both those teams and this game is practically on the road. Louisiana-Lafayette has played in the New Orleans Bowl on six previous occasions (all since 2011) and they are 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS in the game. I expect a spirited crowd to help lead the Ragin' Cajuns to an upset win. 

Boca Raton Bowl @ Boca Raton, Florida

South Florida +3 Syracuse

Often times, bowl results come down to motivation, and I think its easy to see which teams comes into this game with more motivation. After beginning the 2018 season 7-0, the bottom fell out of the South Florida program. The Bulls lost their final six games of 2018 (with each loss coming by double digits) and then proceeded to win just four FBS games between 2018 and 2022 (8-37 overall record). Expectations were not high heading into 2023 with new head coach Alex Golesh and you probably remember the Bulls for a game they did not even win back in September. South Florida hosted Alabama back in Week 3 and while the Bulls were never really a threat to win the game, they hung around and lost just 17-3. That game might give you the false impression that South Florida plays an old-school defensive first style with a limited offense. That could not be further from the truth. In AAC play, South Florida ranked fifth in yards per play as they put up more than thirty points in five of their eight conference games. However, the Bulls needed a win in their regular season finale to clinch a bowl bid because of their defense. They played well against a struggling (at the time) Alabama offense, but once league play started, they ranked dead last in the AAC in yards allowed per play. They allowed at least thirty points in five of their eight league games and finished about how you might expect a team that is very good on one side of the ball and very bad on the other (4-4 in the AAC). But this is their first bowl game in five years and the Bulls will be facing a team that is present in body, but absent in spirit. Syracuse began the season 4-0 against a less than arduous schedule, but once ACC play began, the Orange rotted. Syracuse lost their first five league games by nearly 25 points per game and while they rebounded to win two of their final three (against the dregs of the league), that skid and the general malaise surrounding the program cost Dino Babers his job. The Orange head to this bowl game (where they are laying points may I remind you) with units that ranked thirteenth and eleventh in the ACC in yards per play on offense and defense respectively. South Florida is bad on one side of the ball, but I expect them to be highly motivated, whereas Syracuse is bad on both sides of the ball and seems to be anxious to get this season over with. Take the Bulls to get the win in their home state. 

Camelia Bowl @ Montgomery, Alabama

Northern Illinois +1 Arkansas State

Both teams in this bowl game rebounded from rough starts. Arkansas State began the year by getting outscored 110-3 by Oklahoma and Memphis. At that point, the Red Wolves were 5-21 under head coach Butch Jones and appeared to be heading for a one or two win season. One quarterback change later and the Red Wolves won six of their final ten games to get back to a bowl for the first time since 2019 (when they also played in the Camelia Bowl). Northern Illinois actually won their opener at Boston College, but lost their next four. Included in that quartet was a home loss to an FCS team. The Huskies won five of their final seven games and are back in a bowl for the second time in three seasons. Northern Illinois has been a great underdog under head coach Thomas Hammock, posting a 19-11 ATS record in the role in his five seasons. They utilize excellent underdog strategies by running the ball to milk the clock and going for it often on fourth down to maximize variance and scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, this is just the fifth time Arkansas State has entered as a favorite against an FBS opponent under Butch Jones. Despite winning five games against FBS opponents this season, four of those victories came as an underdog. The market has probably tilted too much toward Arkansas State. In terms of per play margin, Northern Illinois was the second best team in the MAC (behind Toledo), while Arkansas State was outgained by their Sun Belt opponents on a per play basis. I think the wrong team is favored here. Take the Huskies to win their first bowl game since 2011. 

Pop-Tarts Bowl @ Orlando, Florida

NC State +3 Kansas State

Dave Doeren has quietly put together a great run at NC State. In the last ten seasons, the Wolfpack had one down year (2019) when they went 1-7 in ACC play and things looked bleak in Raleigh. In the other nine seasons, the Wolfpack have won at least eight games seven times and beaten their archrivals in Chapel Hill seven times, including four times as an underdog. A victory here would give the Wolfpack ten wins for the first time since 2002 and give them their third ranked finish under Doeren. All that stands between them and the second best season of this century is a Kansas State team that may be overvalued by the market for a change. After posting a 10-3 ATS mark the previous two seasons as a favorite, the Wildcats were just 5-4 as a favorite this season and lost three of those games outright. In fact, if you look at Kansas State's schedule, there is not a whole lot of heft on it. The Wildcats did dominate a good Group of Five team (Troy) early in the season, but Kansas was the only other team they beat that finished with a winning record. The Wildcats were also slightly underwater in terms of yards per play in Big 12 action (-.09 per play) despite posting a 6-3 league record. NC State has a sneaky good defense, ranking fourth in the ACC in yards allowed per play. I think they will shut down the Kansas State run game and keep this a low scoring affair. Take the 'Pack and the points.  

Music City Bowl @ Nashville, Tennessee

Maryland +2.5 Auburn

I can admit when I'm wrong and I think I whiffed on my take regarding the Mike Locksley hire. This is Maryland's third consecutive bowl trip under Locksley, a not insignificant accomplishment considering they reside (until next year) in the same division as Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. In fact, over the past three seasons, Maryland is 22-5 against unranked teams. Of course, they are 0-11 against ranked opponents, so while they are clearly a solid program, they are a notch below the elite of college football. And speaking of not being elite, allow me to introduce you to Auburn. The Tigers finished bowl eligible in Hugh Freeze's first season in charge, but of their six regular season wins, five came against either FCS teams or FBS teams that finished with a losing record. The only FBS team they beat that did not finish with a losing record was Cal which finished 6-6. I think Auburn is getting an artificial boost thanks to playing in the SEC and nearly beating Alabama in the Iron bowl a few weeks ago. This game will be played in SEC country, but not in Jordan Hare. Maryland is the better team and should be favored. 

Arizona Bowl @ Tucson, Arizona

Wyoming -3 Toledo

This is the end of the line for Craig Bohl at Wyoming. The former North Dakota State head coach has been in Laramie for ten years. While the Cowboys never won a conference title under his watch, they did play for the Mountain West championship in 2016 and including this year, were bowl eligible in the past seven non-shortened seasons. Bohl consistently put solid to good Group of Five defenses on the field and played to that strength by running the hell out of the football. This season, Wyoming opened the year with an upset of Texas Tech on their home field and were 5-1 in mid-October. They lost back to back games to Air Force and Boise State to fall out of the conference race, but won three of their last four to get to eight regular season wins for the first time since 2016. They will face the MAC Championship Game loser for the third consecutive time in a bowl. The Cowboys dominated Kent State in 2021 and lost a tight game to Ohio in 2022. Toledo bookended their season with losses, first to Illinois in the opener and then to Miami in the MAC Championship Game. In between, they were the best team in the MAC, becoming the first MAC school to finish 8-0 in league play since Western Michigan in 2016. Special teams failures cost them against Miami and I think motivation will be an issue for the Rockets. Two weeks ago, they were ranked in the top 25 and a sizable favorite in their conference title game. Now, their quarterback is in the transfer portal and they are facing a team from a better league looking to send their head coach out with a win. Take the Cowboys to cover this small number. 

Rose Bowl @ Pasadena, California

Alabama +1.5 Michigan

I don't think Alabama deserved their spot in the College Football Playoff over Florida State. In the previous nine iterations of the invitational, the committee has tended to defer to 'most deserving' instead of best (whatever your preferred predictive rating system is). I think they erred in deviating from the script this season, but at the same time, I think Alabama has a great shot at putting another trophy in the case. This is not close to Saban's best team at Alabama, it may not even be top six, but the Tide have improved throughout the year and feature a dangerous if unpolished quarterback. Jalen Milroe is a bomb thrower. He averaged nearly sixteen yards per completion this season. By comparison, Bryce Young averaged 13.3 yards per completion in his Heisman winning campaign of 2021. The defense, while not world devouring like some previous units, was good enough (third in SEC play in yards allowed per play). The Crimson Tide will face a Michigan team that has not looked great in their past three games. Maryland played Michigan even statistically in a close loss and the Buckeyes actually outgained the Wolverines, but were done in by two Kyle McCord interceptions. The Wolverines blanked Iowa in the Big 10 Championship Game, but they mustered just 213 total yards and averaged 3.33 yards per play. Turnovers have buoyed the Wolverines in those three games (+7 margin), but the fickle bounces of the football can reverse course without warning. The Wolverines passing attack is not up to snuff to beat Alabama. The Wolverines have thrown just one touchdown pass in their past five games. You rarely find Alabama catching points under Nick Saban, so savor these opportunities and back the Tide.