Championship Preview: The Return of the MAC

After last season, it appeared Frank Solich could be destined to follow the Fred Akers/Ray Perkins career path after getting canned by Nebraska in 2003. The Ohio Bobcats struggled through yet another losing season in 2005 (their 8th in 9 years) and actually saw their point differential decline from 2004 (-144 versus -50), though their record remained the same (4-7). The Bobcats did eke out a signature win on national television against Pitt, but other than that signs of progress were few and far between. Last season the Bobcats were less offensive than an episode of The Waltons as they averaged a mere 17.5 points per game. Their quarterbacks, led by Austen Everson managed only 6 touchdown passes and completed a scant 45% of their passes. The running game was solid averaging nearly 4.5 yards per rush while being led by Kalvin McRae and his 1100+ yards (5.5 per attempt). The defense did not contribute much towards winning either allowing 30.5 points per game. Opposing quarterbacks completed nearly 63% of their passes and averaged over 8 yards per pass. They held their own against the run allowing only 4.3 yards per rush. Special teams were both good and bad. Ohio returned both a punt and kickoff for touchdowns on the year, but also allowed two of each. Plus their kicker only converted on 4 of 9 field goals on the year (Matthew Miller was 3of 4 while Brooks Rossman was 1 of 5).

This season has been a different story as the Bobcats have reeled off 7 straight victories en route to a 9-3 regular season. Two of their losses were non-conference tilts on the road against Rutgers and Missouri, and the other was an early season home loss to Bowling Green. The Bobcats also beat another BCS school this season, narrowly edging Illinois in Champaign 20-17. How have the Bobcats done it? For starters the offense has improved, scoring 21.6 points per game. Their quarterbacks, again led by Everson (a senior) are completing over half their passes (55%). The touchdown total is still low (8), but so is the interception count (11). The running game has regressed a bit, averaging only 4.2 yards per rush. McRae again has over 1100 yards, but only averages 5 yards per attempt. The real difference for Ohio is their defense. The defense has allowed only 16.2 points per contest. If we remove the two games against Rutgers and Missouri, that number drops to 13.9. Opposing quarterbacks completed less than half their passes (49.8%) and are averaging only 5.3 yards per pass. Those are dramatic improvements from 2005. The run defense has also improved allowing just under 4 yards per rush. Special teams have also improved. The Bobcats have brought one punt back for 6, and have allowed no special teams touchdowns on the year. Their kicking game has also improved. Kicker Matt Lasher has converted 12 of his 17 field goal attempts.

The team on the other sideline tomorrow night has also improved significantly from last season. Central Michigan is also led by a coach who achieved great success at another school. Brian Kelly spent 13 seasons at Division II Grand Valley State and won 2 national titles. He joined the Chippewas prior to the 2004 season and his teams have shown improvement each year. They were 4-7 in 2004, 6-5 in 2005, and are currently sitting at 8-4. 3 of the Chippewas 4 losses this season have come to BCS schools. They fell at home to Boston College 31-24 at home on the opening Thursday of the season. The following week they lost to Michigan in the Big House, and in late September they lost a shootout at Kentucky by 45-36. Their only conference loss came 2 weeks ago at Northern Illinois.

The Chippewas are a very different team from the Bobcats. Central Michigan depends on its offense, not its defense to win games. The offense scores nearly 30 per game (29.5) and allows exactly 24 per contest. Led by freshman quarterback Dan LeFevour, the Chippewas have a passing attack Ohio can only dream of possessing. Chippewa quarterbacks have completed nearly 62% of their passes and have more than twice as many touchdown passes (24) as interceptions (10). Their running game is much like Ohio’s (though not quite as good), solid if unspectacular, but features more of a committee approach than a featured back. On defense, the Chippewas are good against the run, allowing only 3.8 yards per rush, but are routinely gouged by the pass. Opposing quarterbacks have completed over 61% of their passes and nearly doubled up their interceptions (12) with touchdown passes (24). On special teams, Central Michigan is pretty awful at punt returns (under 6 yards per return compared to over 14 for Ohio), but pretty good at punt coverage (allowing under 5 yards per return). They have run a kickoff back this season and have converted 10 of 16 field goals.

With both teams having accepted bowl bids (Ohio to the GMAC and Central Michigan to the Motor City), this game is solely for the banner, the trophy, and the rings. This game comes down to two matchups, one strength versus strength, and the other weakness versus weakness. Ohio’s strength is its pass defense and Central Michigan’s strength is its passing offense. If Ohio can shut down the Chippewas passing attack, they can pull off the minor upset. If not, the Chippewas could make this ugly. Central Michigan’s weakness is its pass defense. Fortunately for them, passing the football is not something Ohio does well. Consequently, there is very little chance Ohio runs away with this game. To me this game is a toss up, but I understand why Central Michigan is a three point favorite. If Central Michigan’s passing game is on, they could go up early and cruise to an easy victory. Ohio doesn’t have the firepower to cruise to a victory. If Ohio does manage to win this game it will be close, unless Central Michigan simply implodes and turns the ball over a ton.

Prediction: In a close game, I like the Ohio defense to put the clamps (somewhat) on a very good Central Michigan offense. The Bobcats win a defensive struggle.

The Best Wake Forest Team Ever?

Since my alma mater is in the midst of a special season, I decided to take a look back and see if this is indeed Wake Forest's finest gridiron squadron. So set back and take a stroll down memory lane as I summarize each Wake Forest team that finished with a winning record since 1970.

1970
Record: 6-5
Conference Record: 5-1
Point Differential: -50
Pythagorean Record: 4.02-6.98
Record Against Winning Teams: 2-4
D-I Wins: 6
Opponent's Record: 71-50-3 .585
Record in Close Games: 2-1

Most Wake fans know the 1970 season as our first and thus far only conference championship. What most fans don't know is that despite being ACC champions, the Demon Deacons were not invited to a bowl game. The ACC as a whole was down in 1970 (sound familiar?) with only North Carolina being invited to participate in postseason play. Wake's schedule strength is fortified by non-conference games against Nebraska (11-0-1), Florida State (7-4), Tennessee (11-1), and Houston (8-3).

1971
Record: 6-5
Conference Record: 2-4
Point Differential: +40
Pythagorean Record: 6.80-4.20
Record Against Winning Teams: 1-2
D-I Wins: 6
Opponent's Record: 49-72 .405
Record in Close Games: 2-3

The ACC was once again down in 1971, but this time the Deacs couldn't take advantage losing several winnable conference games and once again staying home for the holidays. Head coach Cal Stoll did parlay his consecutive winning seasons at Wake into a gig at Minnesota where he lasted for 7 seasons never winning fewer than 4 or more than 7 games.

1979
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 3-2
Point Differential: -43
Pythagorean Record: 4.84-7.16
Record Against Winning Teams: 5-4
D-I Wins: 8
Opponent's Record: 76-57-3 .570
Record in Close Games: 8-1

I believe the expression is smoke and mirrors. The Deacons did beat several good teams--Auburn (8-3), Maryland (7-4), and North Carolina (8-3-1). However, take a look at than unbelievable record in close games. The Deacons caught every possible break in 1979 and were rewarded with a trip to the Tangerine Bowl, where they were slaughtered by a mediocre LSU team (7-5). Head coach John Mackovic stayed one more season before seeing the writing on the wall.

1984
Record: 6-5
Conference Record: 3-4
Point Differential: -27
Pythagorean Record: 4.70-6.30
Record Against Winning Teams: 0-5
D-I Wins: 3
Opponent's Record: 48-39-4 .549
Record in Close Games: 2-1

Al Groh's lone winning record with the Deacs is built on the foundation of three non-DIA wins--Richmond, William and Mary, and Appalachian State.

1987
Record: 7-4
Conference Record: 4-3
Point Differential: +16
Pythagorean Record: 6.04-4.96
Record Against Winning Teams: 0-3
D-I Wins: 5
Opponent's Record: 51-51 .500
Record in Close Games: 4-0

Another down year for the ACC. Only Virginia (8-4) and Clemson (10-2) went bowling. The Deacs couldn't go because they had only 5 D-IA wins. Deacs actually began the season 5-0 before stumbling to the finish line when the schedule toughened up.

1988
Record: 6-4-1
Conference Record: 4-3
Point Differential: +44
Pythagorean Record: 6.59-4.41
Record Against Winning Teams: 1-4
D-I Wins: 4
Opponent's Record: 50-38-3 .566
Record in Close Games: 2-1-1

Another year, another pair of non-DIA wins (and one tie). The Deacs lone win over a team with a winning record was against the OBC in his second season at Duke.

1992
Record: 8-4
Conference Record: 4-4
Point Differential: +6
Pythagorean Record: 6.16-5.84
Record Against Winning Teams: 0-4
D-I Wins: 7
Opponent's Record: 66-59-1 .528
Record in Close Games: 4-0

The story of the 1992 Independence Bowl champions is that they beat the teams they should. No wins against winning teams, but also no losses to teams with losing records. The buzz word for the 1992 season was resiliency. After a 1-3 start, the Deacs rattled off 6 straight wins before succumbing to NC State in the regular season finale. In the bowl game, they fell behind early to Oregon before rebounding for a thrilling 39-35 victory. The 1992 season marked the end of line for one of college football's finest and most underrated coaches, Bill Dooley. 3 winning seasons in 6 years at Wake--not too bad. He also enjoyed success at two other non-traditional (at the time) powers in North Carolina and Virginia Tech.

1999
Record: 7-5
Conference Record: 3-5
Point Differential: +57
Pythagorean Record: 7.67-4.33
Record Against Winning Teams: 1-2
D-I Wins: 7
Opponent's Record: 65-73 .471
Record in Close Games: 2-1

What could have been. Consider this: Wake finished 7-5 in Jim Caldwell's penultimate season, and yet lost to Duke (3-8) and at home to Maryland (5-6). To get bowl eligible, it took a dramatic upset over a top-20 Georgia Tech team on Senior Fifth day. It all ended well though, with a Christmas Day win over Arizona State in the Aloha Classic.

2001
Record: 6-5
Conference Record: 3-5
Point Differential: -19
Pythagorean Record: 5.09-6.91
Record Against Winning Teams: 2-5
D-I Wins: 5
Opponent's Record: 65-55 .542
Record in Close Games: 5-4

Jim Grobe certainly made a difference in his first season at the helm. Fresh off a 2-9 season, the Deacs matched their 2000 win total in the first two games, and seemed to be in every game (9 of 11 were decided by 7 points or fewer and 10 of 11 were decided by 10 points or less). Best moment of the season? Either the first win in Charlottesville since 1981 or the comeback win over a Tar Heel team with Julius Peppers.

2002
Record: 7-6
Conference Record: 3-5
Point Differential: +29
Pythagorean Record: 7.15-5.85
Record Against Winning Teams: 3-6
D-I Wins: 7
Opponent's Record: 87-81 .518
Record in Close Games: 4-3

More of the same for Grobe in his second season. No terrible losses, as all of them came to teams with winning records, and lots of close games. Beat a pretty good Oregon team in the Seattle Bowl to boot.

2006
Record: 10-2
Conference Record: 6-2
Point Differential: +95
Pythagorean Record: 8.73-3.27
Record Against Winning Teams: 2-2
D-I Wins: 9
Opponent's Record: 59-72 .450
Record in Close Games: 4-0

Is this the best Wake Forest team? Do Pi Phi's like to party? This is far and away the best Wake Forest team. They are aided by a relatively soft schedule and unblemished record in close games, but their point differential is legit. Wake's other good teams never had a point differential larger than 57 and usually (with the exception of 2001 and 2002--also Grobe-coached teams) blew games to teams that finished with losing records. Oh yeah, and let's not forget that 6-0 road record. Regardless of what happens in Jacksonville or in the bowl game, this is the best team in Wake's storied history.

Dan's the Man

Saturday evening on the plains of Iowa, a quality coach most fans wouldn't recognize quietly went out a winner to cap a disappointing season. Iowa State upset the Missouri Tigers 21-16 to send Dan McCarney out on a positive note. The second year in a row that a coach that reinvigorated a program has salvaged a season with an upset of Missouri. McCarney resigned earlier this season as the Cyclones were in the midst of a sour 4-8 campaign. However, after the game, you would have thought the Cyclones had won the national championship. McCarney was carried off the field by his players in a manner befitting a man who has done so much for the Iowa State program. You won't find his name at the top of the career wins list (he only has 56) and you won't be awed by his spiffy winning percentage (.397), but that should not diminish what he has accomplished in Ames.

In McCarney's 12 seasons at Iowa State, his teams have a combined record of 56-85 (.397). By itself that is not terribly impressive. But consider in the 12 seasons before McCarney's arrival the Cyclones were a combined 45-82-5 (.360) with just 2 winning seasons, no bowl appearances, and a winless season just before McCarney took over. It took McCarney a while to raise the program as they Cyclones never won more than 4 games during his first 5 seasons. But in season 6 the Cyclones turned the corner. Over the next 7 years, Iowa State would win at least 7 games 5 times, participate in 5 bowl games (winning 2), and tie for the Big 12 North title (2004). This tie gave the Cyclones their first championship (co or otherwise) since the Taft administration (1912).

And what about that little rivalry game against Iowa? When McCarney arrived in 1995, the Cyclones had not beaten the Hawkeyes since 1982. McCarney lost his first 4 contests to the in-state rivals, but rebounded to lead his team to 6 wins in the last 8 games in the series. His first victory over Iowa in 1998 was probably the most special since it was their first win in the series since 1982 and the last time he would coach against the legendary Hayden Fry.

All in all, the Cyclones have had a less than stellar history with 9 bowl appearances (5 with McCarney) and only 2 bowl wins (both with McCarney). Any success the program enjoys on the gridiron going forward, will have McCarney to thank for laying the foundation. McCarney made a 4-8 season a disappointment and not an aspiration

Hoot, There It Is

With all due respect to Rutgers and Wake Forest, there is another outstanding turnaround taking place that has gone way under the radar. Deep in the heart of Texas--Houston to be exact. There, the Rice Owls under first year coach Todd Graham have reeled off 4 victories in a row (3 on the road) to even their record at 5-5. With two home games remaining against East Carolina and Southern Methodist, the Owls have a real chance at becoming bowl-eligible--a feat that two months ago would have seemed impossible. Here's a short list of the obstacles Graham faced in his first year at the helm.

1) Rice is the second smallest Division IA football school behind only the University of Tulsa.

2) In the past 2 decades, Rice has had exactly 5 winning seasons--a pair of 6-5 and 7-4 campaigns, and one 8-4 year in 2001. In that same time frame, they've won 3 or fewer games 7 times.

3) Under their former coach Ken Hatfield, Rice ran an option attack to compensate for their disparity in talent. Under Graham, the Owls have switched to a more traditional pass-oriented offense, something that usually takes a few seasons to integrate.

4) The Owls were 1-10 last season.

5) This season, the Owls non-conference slate included road games against Florida State and UCLA as well as a neutral (yeah right) site game against Texas. Not surprisingly, the Owls went 0-3 in those games lsing by an average of more than 34 points.

What is surprising is that the Owls are 4-2 in conference play and with two games still to go, they could finish in a tie for first in Conference USA's Western Division (Houston has the tiebreaker so they can't play in the title game). The Owl's probably aren't as good as their record since 3 of their last 4 wins have come by 6 points or fewer, but that's a small quibble. So let's take a moment and appreciate what Todd Graham has done and pull for the Owls to make their first bowl appearance since the 1961 Bluebonnet Bowl.

And one last thing. You gotta love these Philadelphia Eagles lookalike helmets.

Revisiting Close Games

Several months ago I blogged about winning close games. The results show that a team's record in close games is not consistent from year to year. There does not seem to be an ability to win close games that carries over from season to season. However, there is another side to that coin, or more specifically two other sides (if that makes any sense). Do teams in a given season possess a certain ability to win close games for that year? To answer this question I perfromed two seperate regression analyses.

The first regression analysis involved seperating the 2005 season into two halves. The first half was each team's record in the first half of its schedule. The second half is the teams record in the second half of its schedule. If a team played an odd number of games, I included the extra game in the teams first half. For example, if a team played 11 games, the first half would be games 1-6 and the second half would be games 7-11. I then looked at every Division IA team's record in the first half of its schedule. I them compared this winning percentage in close games to the team's winning percentage in close games in the second half of their schedule to see if a team's record in close games in the first half of the schedule has any predictive value for the team's record in close games in the second half. Teams that did not play a close game in either the first or second half of their schedule (or both) were not included. With a sample size of 100 teams, the r squared value for this analysis is .0023. This means that a teams record in close games in the first half of its schedule has almost no value in predicting its record in close games in the second half of its schedule.

The second regression analysis involved separating each Division IA team's schedule, but in a slightly different manner. Instead of dividing the schedules into first and second half, I divided the games into even and odd. Game one goes into the odd pile, game two into the even, game three into the odd and so on. I then looked at each team's record in the odd games and compared it to their record in the even games to see if a team's record in close odd games was of any use in predicting its record in close even games. Teams that did not play a close game in either any odd or even games (or any at all) were excluded. With a sample size of 106, the r squared value for this analysis is .0007. This means that a teams record in close games in odd games has no value in predicting its record in close games in even games.

There is no ability to win close games (at least not in college football) whether it is across seasons or within seasons. Close games are like coin flips. Its not uncommon to get 3 or 4 head tosses in a row, but eventually things will even out and a few tails will be come up consecutively.

Home Cooking

Rutgers is pretty much a lock to cover the 7 point spread against Louisville tomorrow, and will probably win the game outright. Here's Louisville's home/road splits since 2003.

2003 Home
Record: 5-1
Points per Game: 36.2
Points Allowed per Game: 24.3
Close Games (decided by 8 points or less): 0

2003 Road
Record: 4-2
Points per Game: 34.2
Points Allowed per Game: 27.7
Close Games: 3

2004 Home
Record: 5-0
Points per Game: 50.6
Points Allowed per Game: 10.2
Close Games: 0

2004 Road
Record: 5-1
Points per Game: 50.0
Points Allowed per Game: 24.2
Close Games: 2

2005 Home
Record: 6-0
Points per Game: 55.3
Points Allowed per Game: 15.5
Close Games: 0

2005 Road
Record: 3-2
Points per Game: 33.0
Points Allowed per Game: 31.4
Close Games: 2

2006 Home
Record: 4-0
Points per Game: 39.3
Points Allowed per game: 21.5
Close Games: 1

2006 Road
Record: 4-0
Points per Game: 39.5
Points Allowed per Game: 9.0
Close Games: 0

At home Louisville has been nigh-invulnerable going 20-1 in nearly 4 seasons. On the road they have been a different team, albeit one that still sports a stellar 16-5 record. At home, Louisville has played only one nail-biter--the game against Cincinnati earlier this season. On the road, Louisville has had 7 games comes down to the wire. Things do appear to be changing this season as Louisville has actually been more impressive on the road. Ah, but check the schedule. Every home game this season has been against a team that currently sports a winning record. The best team they have played on the road was a mediocre Kansas State team. Their road slate also includes a date against Temple (a 62-0 thrashing that skews the data). Against teams with winning records at home, Louisville is 7-1 since 2003. Against winning teams on the road, Louisville is only 3-4, with 2 of the wins coming this season against Kansas State and Middle Tennessee State. And what ofheir most famous road setback? That South Florida team was only 6-6.

Three Wise Men

Baylor, Vanderbilt, and Wake Forest have a lot in common on the gridiron. They are all private schools in big time conferences. They are all located in the southern part of the United States. They all have very little history of success in football. And most importantly, they each have a quality head coach in various stages of rebuilding and reinvigorating their once struggling programs. While Wake Forest, and by extension Jim Grobe, has gotten most of the exposure (and rightfully so) thanks to their 8-1 start, don't sleep on Guy Morriss at Baylor and Bobby Johnson at Vanderbilt. I decided to see how the fortunes of each program has changed since the new men arrived on the scene. Grobe is currently in his 6th season at Wake, Johnson in his 5th at Vandym and Morriss in his 4th at Baylor. This post will compare each coaches' record at his respective school in several areas against the school's same record in those areas in the coaches' preceding years. Since Grobe is in his sixth season at Wake, his record will be compared to the previous six seasons before his arrival. In the same vein we'll look at the previous 5 before Johnson's arrival at Vandy and the previous four at Baylor for Guy Morriss. First up, Jim Grobe.

Grobe Era (2001-2006) Pre-Grobe (1995-2000)
Record: 34-33 (.507) 21-46 (.313)
Conference Record: 17-28 (.378) 10-38 (.208)
Winning Seasons: 3 1
Bowl Games: 2 1
Losses by >20: 6 21
Against Winning Teams: 12-27 (.308) 3-29 (.094)
Scoring Margin per Game: 0 -9.96

Grobe's resume is very impressive. The one stat that really jumps out at me is the blowout losses. In his nearly 6 seasons at the helm, the Demon Deacons have suffered only 6 losses by 20 or more points. In Jim Caldwell's final season (2000), the Deacons suffered 5 such defeats.

Johnson Era (2002-2006) Pre-Johnson (1997-2001)
Record: 15-41 (.268) 15-40 (.273)
Conference Record: 6-32 (.158) 4-36 (.100)
Winning Seasons: 0 0
Bowl Games: 0 0
Losses by >20: 12 18
Against Winning Teams: 1-31 (.031) 1-34 (.029)
Scoring Margin per Game: -6.16 -10.22

The Commodores' improvement hasn't been as dramatic, but anyone who has watched a Vandy game the past two seasons knows they are much more competitive. Johnson already has 50% more conference victories, and he still has two more chances to get win number 7 this year. The blowout losses are also down and who can forget the dramatic victory over Tennessee last season for the first time since what seems like Reconstruction. The 'Dores haven't made it to a bowl game yet, but they'll get to one either in 2007 or 2008. Look out for exciting sophomore quarterback Chris Nickson, who has been quietly improving since opening the season in the Big House.

Morris Era (2003-2006) Pre-Morris Era (1999-2002)
Record: 15-29 (.341) 9-36 (.200)
Conference Record: 7-23 (.233) 1-32 (.030)
Winning Seasons: 0 0
Bowl Games: 0 0
Losses by >20: 17 29
Against Winning Teams: 4-22 (.154) 2-26 (.071)
Scoring Margin per Game: -12.30 -21.80

In conference play, Morris has certainly been the miracle worker. The Bears have won twice as many road conference games (2) in Morris' tenure as total conference games in the four seasons before his arrial. Those two road wins are also the only two road victories in the Bears' nearly 11 seasons in the Big XII. This season, the Bears implemented a new Texas Tech-lite offense and after some early struggles (21.2 points per in the first five games) the Bears offense has come of age (28.6 points per in the last five). The Bears also have the pieces to be a bowl team in the near future if they catch a few breaks.

For schools like Wake, Vandy, and Baylor, there is a such thing as a moral victory. As a Wake fan, even when we were busy going 4-7 the past two seasons, it was still better than being slaughtered in half our games as was often the case in the mid 1990's. Consistently winning 8-9 games is not the goal, nor should it be at these schools. The goal should be playing competitive football (as all three schools have been) and every few seasons being in position to go to a bowl game and possibly more, as is the case for Wake Forest this season.

College Football Delayed Reaction

I. One team that definitely enjoyed Oregon State's upset of USC was Boise State. If you'll remember, the Broncos trounced the Beavers 42-14 back on a Thursday night in September. That little computation in the computer's formula should be enough to get Boise into the BCS if they win out.

II. Congrats to Temple. The Owls won their first game since 2004 over Bowling Green this past Saturday. The journey of 1000 miles begins with a single step.

III. The Ohio Bobcats are 6-3 with games remaining against Eastern Michigan (1-7), Akron (3-5), and Miami of Ohio (1-8). With only 1 conference loss, Ohio, under second year coach Frank Solich, has a great chance to win the Eastern Division in the MAC. What of Solich's old team? Nebraska is also 6-3 after an upset loss at Oklahoma State. With game remaining against Missouri and Texas A&M (as well as improving Colorado), the Huskers have a real shot to finish with 5 losses. Wasn't that the kind of mediocrity for which Solich was allegedly fired?

IV. Standing at 6-3, with a home game remaining against Temple, Penn State will almost certainly finish with consecutive winning seasons for the first time since 1998-1999.

V. Wake Forest i currently ranked higher than: Nebraska, Penn State, Alabama, Florida State, and Miami. Is Wake better than all those teams? Probably not, though they may be better than two. Still, what were the preseason odds on that happening?

VI. Hawaii is good. With 4 home dates left on the schedule (including games against Purdue and Oregon State), the Warriors actually stand a chance at winning 12 games.

VII. Watch out for Kentucky. Their next three games are all home dates (Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Louisiana-Monroe). Bowl eligibility and a possible 7-win regular season are in the Cats' sights.

Let's Get Bowl Eligible

Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 60-38

Texas at Nebraska
After a few Big 12 exhibitions, the Huskers get to compare themselves to the cream of the conference crop. The Huskers are bowl eligible at 6-1. but their best win is either over Kansas, Kansas State, or Iowa State--three schools that at best will go to forgettable bowls, or at worst finish with 4 or 5 wins. Until the Oklahoma game, Texas didn't have any wins to hang its hat on either (unless you're partial to Rice, North Texas, and Sam Houston). The Horns are coming off a 63-31 win against Baylor; a game in which they played only 3 quarters. A lackluster first period saw them fall behind te Bears 10-0 before flipping the switch. Nebraska's not the team they were under Osbourne or Solich for that matter, but falling behind early would not make for an ideal start.
Winner: Texas

Wisconsin at Purdue
After 3 non-descript wins over mid-major also rans, the Badgers played Michigan relatively tough in the Big House, and then fell off the national radar. Since that Michigan game, the Badgers have won 3 straight Big 10 games by an average of 34.3 points per game. True, none of the victims (Indiana, Minnesota, and Northwestern) are threats to win the league, but the Badgers offense has been dynamic rolling up 141 points in the 3 games. The offense should be licking its collective chops in anticipation of lining up against a Purdue squad currently ranked 101st in scoring defense (29.6 points per game).
Winner: Wisconsin

UCLA at Notre Dame
Is an upset bruin in South Bend? UCLA is 4-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. Ah, the wonders of inexperienced starting quarterbacks. The four teams UCLA has beaten are a combined 9-20. The two teams who have beaten them are a combined 9-4. Notre Dame is 5-1 and playing at home.
Winner: Notre Dame

Washington at Cal
After a 4-1 start, Tyrone Willingham's Huskies have hit a rough patch losing two in a row. One is excusable, a road loss at Southern Cal. The other requires a bit more explanation. At home against a 2-3 Oregon State team, the Huskies managed only 17 points as the usually proficient passing game hit some snags and the team lost 27-17. With a probable home win over Stanford left on the schedule, the Huskies simple need to win one other game out of 4 (at Cal, at Oregon, at Washington State and home against Arizona State) to reach bowl eligibility. While a win here would be nice, the reality is that a bowl bid may come down to the Apple Cup against archrival Washington State. In their 4 home games this season, Cal has not scored fewer than 42 points. They may not get that many, but at least 35 and an easy win are in store for the Bears this weekend.
Winner: Cal

Boston College at Florida State
It's late October, and based on winning percentage, Florida State is tied for the Atlantic Division basement with Maryland. Besides Miami, the Noles have defeated Troy, Rice, and Duke. We'll get a real read on how good Florida State is after this game. After playing 4 nailbiters to start the year, BC has won two games rather handily (although one was against Maine) by a combined score of 44-3. The Eagles own several quality wins (Clemson, BYU, Virginia Tech, and even Central Michigan), but all save one have come at home. Even though they are ranked below Clemson, if BC wins out they will take the Atlantic Division and play in the ACC Championship Game. After this game, they will be halfway to their division title.
Winner: Boston College

Iowa at Michigan
This game looked mmuch better 8 days ago, before the Hawkeyes got ambushed by a fired up Hoosier squad in Bloomington. Iowa has been somewhat of a disappointment this season losing at home to Ohio State in a game that was never in doubt, losing at Indiana, and playing very sluggish against some of the weaker teams on the schedule. Part of the problem for the Iowa offense has been the play of quarterback Drew Tate. After throwing 7 interceptions all of last season, Tate already has 6 this season. If Iowa is to have any chance in the Big House, Tate has to play well. The Wolverines are tops in the nation in run defense allowing just over 32 yards per game. The Wolverines will shut down the run, and it will be up to Tate to lead the Hawkeyes down the field. Ultimately, Tate and the Hawkeyes will play much better than they did last week, but will still fall short.
Winner: Michigan

Texas Tech at Iowa State
I hereby dub this game 'The Disappointment Bowl'. After a 9-3 season, Texas Tech is 4-3 with losses to TCU and an improving, but still bad Colorado team. After a 7-5 season, Iowa State stands 3-4 (0-3 in the Big 12) and is in danger of missing out on postseason play. The Cyclones 3 wins have come by 6 points or less against teams that are mediocre at best. Their 4 losses, while all to good teams, have not been close. What is prime culprit for each teams decline? After averaging over 39 points per game last year, the Red Raiders are down to 28 points per game. After averaging nearly 8 yards per pass in 2005, their average yards per pass has dropped by a full yard to 6.8 per attempt. The culprit is not completion percentage as it has slightly improved (from 66% to 67%), but yards per completion. Last season, the Red Raiders averaged about 12 yards per completion. That number is down to 10 yards this season. The Red Raiders have always utilized a short, high percentage passing attack, but this year their receivers are breaking fewer tackles and making fewer big plays. What about the Cyclones? Last year they averaged over 28 points per game. This season, that number is down to a shade over 20 per game. This includes an overtime affair against Toledo where the Cyclones managed 45 points in 3 extra periods. They have scored less than 20 in every other game except against Northern Iowa. Like Texas Tech, the culprit is the passing game. Cyclones quarterbacks threw 10 interceptions last season and already have 7 so far in 2006. So who gets out of Ames with a W and some momentum on Saturday? Take the home team.
Winner: Iowa State

Alabama at Tennessee
There are very few sure things in sports, and in life in general. But I guarantee this game will have more than the 9 combined points last year's game featured. 4 easy steps to picking the winner of this game.
1) Alabama won by 3 last year
2) Tennessee's offense is better this season
3) Alabama's defense is worse than last seson
4) The games in Knoxville instead of Tuscaloosa
Winner: Tennessee

Oregon at Washington State
In a bit of a coup, the Cougars get the Pac 10's top 3 teams (Southern Cal, Cal, and Oregon) in Pullman. Unforunately, having already lost to 2 of those teams, the Cougars appear to be on the road to pissing away that advantage, And then, gulp, they have to go on the road to return the favor next sseason. Give the Cougars credit, they do seem to be able to hold pretty good offenses down in Pullman. The Bears have averaged 39.5 points in their other games, but managed only 21 at Washington State. The Trojans averaged 30.4 points in their other 5 games, but only scored 28 at Washington State. Oregon is currently averaging 35.8 points per game. Put they down for either 21 or 24 and a hard fought Pac 10 win.
Winner: Oregon

Rutgers at Pitt
The winner of this game is a darkhorse contender for the Big East title. This is easily Rutgers biggest game since they played the first college football game against Princeton in 1869. There hasn't been much to get excited about in the following century and a quarter, but things seem to be changing in Jersey. They travel to Pennsylvania to face a Panthers team that has already surpassed last season's win total. Before the beatdown of Navy, Rutgers had struggled on the road, barely surviving North Carolina and South Florida. Pitt is the best team Rutgers has faced, and Tyler Palko is the best quarterback they have faced. Pitt gets the win and stays on track for a mid-November showdown with West Virginia.
Winner: Pitt

UTEP at Houston
The winner of this game will be Tulsa's biggest challenger in Conference USA's Western Division. The loser is likely out of title contention. Since upsetting Oklahoma State 4 weeks ago, the Cougars have lost 3 close games in a row to Miami, Louisiana-Lafeyette, and Southern Miss--alll likely bowl teams. The Miners have won 3 in a row since starting the season 1-2. If nothing else, this should be an entertaining game as both teams can put points on the board. Kudos to Mike Price and Art Briles for their respective rebuilding jobs in college fooball outposts.
Winner: Houston

South Carolina at Vanderbilt
Steve Spurrier has coached against Vanderbilt 13 times and has 13 victories. Surprisingly though, 5 times the Commodores have come within one score of upsetting Spurrier's team. In chronological order.
1987: In Spurrier's first season at Duke, the Blue Devils beat the Commodores 35-31 in Vanderbilt.
1988: The Blue Devils won 17-15 in Nashville.
1996: I watched this game as a freshman in high school as Vanderbilt played a spectacular defensive game against the eventual national champion Florida Gators before falling 28-21 in Nashville. The only team to hold the Gators to fewer points that season was Florida State (in the first game between the two).
1999: Spurrier's worst (record wise at 9-4) team in Gainesville, survived a defensive struggle in the Swamp 13-6.
2005: Spurrier's first Gamecock team held on to defeat the 'Dores 35-28 in Columbia.
Spurrier will get his 14th win over Vandy, but it won't be easy.
Winner: South Carolina

Southern Miss at Virginia Tech
Despite their reputation as giant killers, this game looked like a good mid-season break for the Hokies. Now, Beamer's boys look to be in for a real fight. Quick, what's Virginia Tech's best win? Cincinnati? Not a lot to hang your hat on. VT will get the win most expected before the season began, but it won't be easy.
Winner: Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech at Clemson
Since Florida State joined the league in 1992, only one ACC old-timer has won an outright title. And you could make the argument the winner wasn't the leagues best team that season (the Terps lost to FSU by 21 in their title season). Now barring some unforeseen events, an old-timer will at least play for the title this season. I still think Miami has a chance to win the Coastal division, especially if the Jackets fall in this game. Death Valley will be rocking with the Gameday crew in town, and the Tigers won't choke this game away like they did two years ago.
Winner: Clemson

Rebuilding the Temple

Ask any college football analyst or casual fan who the worst team in Division IA is and the near unanimous answer you’ll get is Temple. Barring a major upset, Temple will go winless for the second season in a row. Does Temple have a prayer of being competitive in the future or should they drop football altogether? To answer that question, it’s a good idea to examine other winless programs. Since 1996, there have been 18 winless Division IA football teams. They are listed below in chronological order along with a few statistics about their winless season and what they did in the following seasons.

1996 Duke
Outscored by 19.7 points per game
Closest they came to a victory was a one point defeat at Wake Forest
The Blue Devils had a pretty tough schedule in 1996 as three of the also-rans on their schedule (Army, Navy, and Northwestern) all won at least 9 games. Since that season, not a lot has gone right. The Blue Devils have had two more winless seasons and never finished better than 4-7.

1997 Illinois
Outscored by 22.6 points per game
Closest they came to a victory was a 10 point loss to Michigan State
The Illini were not competitive at all. Their closest defeat was 10 points and they lost to a Louisville team that went 1-10. Illinois has had some success since 1997, going to a bowl game in 1999 and winning the Big 10 in 2001. However, now they appear to be back to their low-brow status having not posted a winning record since 2001.

1997 Northern Illinois
Outscored by 23 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a five point home loss to Ohio
The Huskies scored more than 14 points only once, in the aforementioned loss to Ohio. Northern Illinois has been highly successful since 1997 posting 6 winning seasons in a row from 2000-2005 under Joe Novak, including a 10-2 season in 2003.

1997 Rutgers
Outscored by 27.7 points per game
Closest they came to a victory was a two point loss at Army
Rutgers did not face a team that won more than 9 games all season and still got waxed by more almost 28 a game. They jumped to a 5-6 record in 1998 before falling back into the gutter. Then Greg Schiano came and slowly but methodically Rutgers began to improve culminating in last season’s bow appearance and this year’s 6-0 start.

1998 Hawaii
Outscored by 22.8 points per game
Closest they came to a victory was a nine point loss at Utah
Hawaii averaged about 12 points per game and never seriously threatened any team they played. Then June Jones arrived. The Warriors more than doubled their offensive output in 1999 and went to a bowl game. Since the lost 1998 season, Hawaii has had 5 winning seasons in 7 years and gone to 4 bowl games.

1998 Kent State
Outscored by 27.7 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a nine point loss to Eastern Michigan
The Golden Flashes lost at home by 14 to Division IAA Youngstown State. Since 1998, Kent State has been pretty awful, although they did post a 6-5 record in 2001. However, they are currently in first place in the MAC at 5-2 overall and 4-0 in MAC play under third coach Doug Martin.

1998 UNLV
Outscored by 21.2 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a pair of three point losses to Wyoming and at SMU
The Running Rebs lost by 34 to a 3-9 Northwestern team. Since then they have managed a bowl appearance in 2000 and a 6-6 record 2003. Other than that, it’s been slow going. Even Hall of Famer John Robinson couldn’t make the Rebs a consistent winner.

1999 Buffalo
Outscored by 26.9 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a pair of seven point home defeats to Akron and IAA Hofstra
The Bulls lost to a pair on IAA teams in Hofstra and Connecticut. The Bulls have not won more than 3 games since and have finished with 1 win three times.

1999 South Carolina
Outscored by 17.4 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a one point home loss to Vanderbilt
The Gamecocks had one of the worst offenses in recent memory scoring only 87 points for the entire year. Under Lou Holtz South Carolina would rebound quickly, going to consecutive bowl games in 2000 and 2001 before falling back to mediocrity.

2000 Duke
Outscored by 25 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a two pint loss at Wake Forest
Duke was bad in 2000 and they have been bad since.

2001 Duke
Outscored by 25.4 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a two point loss at Rice
Duke’s offense was little better in 2001 and their defense was a little worse. It adds up to pretty much the same season.

2001 Houston
Outscored by 22 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a one point loss at home to Cincinnati
The Cougars only played two teams with losing records in a relatively strong Conference USA. They improved to 5-7 in 2002, went to a bowl in 2003, regressed to 3-8 in 2004, and went to a bowl in 2005.

2001 Navy
Outscored by 14.6 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a one point loss at Toledo.
The Midshipmen actually played a number of close games, losing to Air Force by 6, Rice by 8, Rutgers by 6, Toledo by 1, and Army by 9. They hired Paul Johnson after the season and struggled through a 2-10 season in 2002 before going to 3 (soon to be 4) consecutive bowl games.

2003 Army
Outscored by 20.8 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a four point loss at Cincinnati
The Black Knights have the worst record of any team on this list finishing up at 0-13. They hired Bobby Ross after this debacle and have improved each succeeding season )2-9 in 2004, 4-7 in 2005, and 3-4 so far in 2006).

2003 SMU
Outscored by 21 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a two point loss at home to UTEP
In 12 games, the Pony Express scored in single digits 5 times. Phil Bennett has improved the Mustangs’ fortunes each season since and they have a chance to finish bowl eligible this year.

2004 Central Florida
Outscored by 17 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a two point loss to Northern Illinois
In George O’leary’s first season, the Golden Knights were a hard luck 0-11. They were 0-4 in games decided by 8 points or less. In 2005, they were 4-1 in such games and finished 8-5. At 2-4 in 2006, a bowl game will be hard to come by, but the Knights are still in much better shape than they were in 2004.

2005 New Mexico State
Outscored by 22.3 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a one point loss to Idaho
In Hal Mumme’s first season, the conversion from option attack to air raid fun n’ gun was tough. The Aggies averaged only 16.5 points per game. Thus far in 2006, the Aggies are only 2-4, but they are averaging 32 points per game and are much more competitive.

2005 Temple
Outscored by 35.5 points per game
Closest they came to a win was a three point loss to Western Michigan
Temple was easily the worst winless team in a decade last season. The offense and defense were equally bad

Now, what about this year’s Temple squad? The Owls are 0-7 and have been outscored by 37.9 points per game. Their closest game was a six point OT loss to Buffalo on August 31st. The Owls have been dominated in every game since. So is there any hope for Temple? You bet. The Owls are set to join the MAC next season. The MAC is hardly a BCS conference and has its share of bottom feeders, so Temple won’t have to play Louisville, Minnesota, and Clemson on a regular basis as it has had to do this season. Secondly, the Owls have a new coach in Al Golden. While it remains to be seen how good Golden is, the biggest reason for the Phoenix-like rise of the winless teams on this list is coaches. June Jones, Lou Holtz, George O’Leary, Bobby Ross, Greg Schiano, and Hal Mumme are a few examples of good coaches who helped raise these teams to respectability and more. So while things may look dire this season, especially if Temple continues to be dominated by every team it plays, winless teams have nowhere to go but up, and have proven that a turnaround can happen even in the most unlikeliest of places.

Blog Poll Week VIII

1 Ohio State-- #1 until further notice (LW 1)
2 Michigan-- late screen pass by Penn State notwithstanding, that defense was quite impressive (LW 4)
3 Southern Cal-- gotta crush some of those inferior opponents (LW 2)
4 Louisville-- survived a big scare against Cincy (LW 5)
5 Texas-- anyone else shocked Baylor went up 10-0? me too. anyone else worry? me neither. (LW 6)
6 Auburn-- big win to stay alive in the SEC (LW 11)
7 Florida-- Leak didn't fumble (LW 3)
8 Tennessee-- quietly sneaking around should the Gators stumble (LW 7)
9 Cal-- waiting on the Trojans (LW 8)
10 Arkansas-- peaking I do believe (LW 19)
11 West Virginia-- when do they play anybody? (LW 9)
12 Clemson-- adding to Temple's woes (LW 10)
13 Notre Dame-- be wary of the Bruins (LW 12)
14 LSU-- scored over 40 in every game except the 2 big ones (13 combined in those) (LW 15)
15 Georgia Tech-- can they continue their roll in Death Valley? (LW 16)
16 Nebraska-- leg up in the North race (LW 14)
17 Pitt-- big game against Rutgers this week (LW 23)
18 Wisconsin-- only loss in The Big House (LW 25)
19 Oregon-- chance for consecutive 10-win seasons (LW 21)
20 Rutgers--whipped Navy (LW 24)
21 Oklahoma-- how will they do without AP? (LW NR)
22 Boise State-- game against New Mexico State much more entertaining than the NFL game at the same time (LW 22)
23 Texas A&M-- big win against Missouri (LW NR)
24 Missouri-- still alive to win the North (LW 18)
25 Boston College-- dominated Virginia Tech (LW NR)

Dropped out:
13 Iowa-- inexcusable loss to Hoosiers
17 Georgia-- matter of time before Steve Martin got Vandy a big win
20 Virginia Tech-- no good wins

Creeping around:
Wake Forest-- bowl-eligible before Halloween
Miami-- offense terrible, but defense still good
Hawaii-- losses to Boise and Bama

Lines of the Night 10/14

After a brief hiatus the lines of the night are back. Get excited.

Quarterback

Pat White, West Virginia
Passing: 12-19 passing, 97 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception
Rushing: 14 attempts, 235 yards, 3 touchdowns

What he lacked in the air, White certainly made up for on the ground in helping the Mountaineers thrash the Orange. As a team, West Virginia ran for over 400 yards and averaged over 10 yards per carry.

Running Back

Javarris James, Miami (Fla)
Rushing: 11 attempts, 36 yards, 0 touchdowns
Receiving: 1 catch, -1 yards, 0 touchdowns

Cousin of Edgerrin and starting running back for Da U, put up these numbers, not against the Ohio State Buckeyes, but against Florida International. As a team, Miami rushed for 91 yards and averaged 3.3 per carry.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Adarius Bowman, Oklahoma State
Rushing: 0 sttempts, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns
Receiving: 13 catches, 300 yards, 4 touchdowns

That's not a misprint. 300 yards. Bowman's 4 touchdowns went for 64, 55, 54, and 25 yards respectively. After spotting the Jayhawks a 17-0 lead, the Cowboys came alive early in the 3rd quarter outscoring Kansas 42-15 from then on.

Shake-Off Saturday

This week presents several teams the opportunity to shake off tough defeats (Wake Forest, Michigan State, Oregon, Fresno State, Auburn, etc.) from last week and possibly turn their season around.

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 51-33

Wake Forest at NC State
After playing flawless football for 3 quarters the Deacons imploded against Clemson beginning with a bad snap on a field goal that led to a fumble return for a touchdown. What will the Deacons psyche be after such a tough and harrowing loss? We'll find out very early on Saturday as kickoff is set for Noon EST. On the other side of the field, NC State has won two in a row after a shaky start. Chuck Amato made the bold decision of replacing veteran Marcus Stone with freshman Daniel Evans. The results have been dramatic. Under Stone, the Pack own a listless victory over Appalachian State, a home loss to Akron, and a road loss to Southern Miss. With Evans under center, the Pack have knocked off Boston College and Florida State at home. After their poor start, the Pack actually control their own destiny in the ACC race. They'll win a close won against a somewhat disheartened Wake Forest squad.
Winner: NC State

Iowa State at Oklahoma
After back to back 7-5 seasons, I have to say I was expecting more from the Iowa State Cyclones. With their quarterback, running back, and number one receiver returning I thought they would be in contention for the Big 12 North title. Thus far, the Cyclones are 3-3 overall and 0-2 in the Big 12. Their victories are over Toledo (2-4), UNLV (1-4), and Northern Iowa (non-Division IA). To be fair, their losses have all come to good teams (Iowa, Texas, and Nebraska), but against those bad to mediocre teams, Iowa State is winning by razor thin margins. Those 3 wins have come by a combined 9 points. Maybe they put it all together and beat a humbled Oklahoma team. Maybe, but I doubt it.
Winner: Oklahoma

Rutgers at Navy
A few seasons ago this battle between teams in the dumpster would have allowed the winner to finish with 3 wins and the loser with 2. Now the winner of this game will be bowl eligible before Halloween. Both Schiano and Johnson have done a fine job in rebuilding these atrocious programs (Johnson got things done a little faster). If you get the chance, you may want to check this game out. You may see about 500 combined yards rushing. Navy leads the nation in rushing offense (over 350 per game) and Rutgers is 10th (over 208 yards per game). Amos Alonzo Stagg would love this battle in the trenches.
Winner: Navy

Ohio State at Michigan State
A win here would turn Sparty's entire season around. Since opening the season 3-0, in typical Sparty fashion, Michigan State has now lost 3 straight including blowing a large fourth quarter lead against Notre Dame and getting beaten at the gun by lowly Illinois. In cases like this, one has to blame the coaches. Its not like the Spartan players all have polio. There is talent on this roster. Will it come together and upset the number one team in the country in East Lansing on Saturday? Doubtful.
Winner: Ohio State

Missouri at Texas A&M
Last week Missouri opened up a 24-0 lead on Texas Tech in Lubbock only to see the red Raiders cut the lead to 3 in the second half. How did the Tigers respond? By scoring the last 14 points of the game to win going away. Now they face their second tough road test in as many weeks. Last week, the Aggies got a much needed road win over a solid (especially at home Kansas team). Now the Aggies seek to become bowl eligible and get themselves back in the Big 12 South race. The difference in this game will be 3rd downs. Missouri converts 3rd downs at a fantastic rate (nearly 53%, good for 6th in the nation). Texas A&M is 7th nationally in 3rd down defense holding teams to a 27% conversion rate.
Winner: Texas A&M

UCLA at Oregon
After a flukish 10-2 season, UCLA is quietly humming along under the radar with a solid 4-1 start. Unfortunately, with an inexperienced quarterback, the Bruins are not road tested having lost their only road contest to the Washington Huskies. Starting your second ever road game in Autzen Stadium is not an enviable task for UCLA quarterback Ben Olson. The Ducks will capitalize on several Olson turnovers and send the Bruins back to hibernation.
Winner: Oregon

Cal at Washington State
Since soiling themselves on national television against Tennessee, Cal has been nothing short of spectacular scoring over 40 points in each of their last 5 games. Not surprisingly, the Bears are 5-0 in those games and have won by no fewer than 21 points. Be wary of the Cougs at home though. Two weeks ago, they gave the Trojans all they could handle in Pullman. They'll do the same to Cal. The Bears won't get to 40, but they'll stay undefeated in Pac 10 play.
Winner: Cal

Hawaii at Fresno State
As detailed earlier this week, The Bulldogs have struggled mightily since pushing the Trojans to the limit 11 months ago. At 1-4, they are in serious jeopardy of missing out on postseason play. Both sides of the ball bear equal blame for the Bulldogs struggles. The offense ranks 80th in points per game and the defense 78th in points allowed per game. On offense, the prime culprit is sophomore quarterback Tom Brandstater who is completing about 50% of his passes. On defense, there are multiple culprits. Now a confident Hawaii squad rolls into Silicon Valley with a 3-2 record and an outside chance at winning the WAC if Boise stumbles. In an unusual occurrence, the Warriors have become road warriors this season. They haven't won on the road yet, but their losses have been to Alabama (4-2) by 8 and Boise State (6-0) by 7. Unfortutnately, those road travails will continue. The Bulldogs will pull out a close game and get back on track (a little).
Winner: Fresno State

Florida at Auburn
Despite one of the nation's toughest schedules, Florida stands 6-0 with wins over Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, and Kentucky (better this year) already in their back pocket. Auburn comes into this game fresh off an embarrassing performance in a home loss to Arkansas. A loss here would pretty much doom any BCS and conference title hopes for Auburn. A loss for Florida would probably end their national title hopes (maybe Meyer would jump on the playoff bandwagon), but with the aforementioned victory over Tennessee they have the tiebreaker over their closest rival. The hostile environment and increasingly difficult schedule will finally get to the Gators.
Winner: Auburn

Arizona State at Southern Cal
Excluding Houston Nutt, this has not been a good season for former Boise State head coaches. Dan Hawkins is winless at Colorado and Dirk Koetter is winless in the Pac 10 at Arizona State. Not only is Koetter winless, but the Sun Devils have been outscored by 28 and 35 points respectively in their 2 conference games. Things won't get better this week with a pissed off Trojans team that has struggles somewhat in its last two games. The Trojans rout the Sun Devils and gain some much needed style points.
Winner: Southern Cal

Maryland at Virgina
Who's afraid of Virginia? No one really. Absent the 37-0 beat down of Duke, the Cavs have lost to Pitt, Western Michigan, Georgia Tech, and East Carolina. Their other win was a one point defeat of Wyoming. Remember when Al Groh was set to take UVA to the level of Florida State and Miami. Well, he's almost there. The Noles and Hurricanes are both 3-2. Give him another year or two and he'll have the Cavs back to ACC mediocrity. Speaking of mediocrity, whatever happened to Ralph Friedgen--offensive genius. The Terps haven't scored 30 points in 8 games, and 3 of the games in the interrim have been against William and Mary, Middle Tennessee, and Florida International. The Terps won't get 30, but they will get their fourth win of the season.
Winner: Maryland

Army at Connecticut
In they didn't blow the opener to Arkansas State and then inexplicably get blown out by Rice two weeks ago, the Knights would be 5-1 and in prime position for a bowl bid. As it stands, they are 3-3 and still have a decent shot at going to a bowl. To get their, they must win this game against a disappointing Connecticut team. The Huskies are 2-3 and have been blown out by the likes of Navy and South Florida. Now truth be told, those are solid teams, but BCS teams should not lose to Navy by 24 points at home.
Winner: Army

Kentucky at LSU
Don't laugh, this game will be tougher than you think for the Tigers. The Wildcats have a solid offense, but unfortunately for them, this game is in Baton Rouge and not Lexington. Kentucky is still fighting for bowl eligibility and with games left against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Louisiana-Monroe they certainly have a shot. Still a win here would do wonders for their bowl hopes. LSU has lost both their road games, but at home they are just bludgeoning teams, winning by no fewer than 31 points. The difference won't be that large here, but 3 touchdowns seems about right.
Winner: LSU

Michigan at Penn State
Can the Nittany Lions ruin the nation's hopes for an undefeated matchup of Buckeyes and Wolverines in late Novemeber? Penn State has not beaten Michigan in a decade (1996) going 0-7 in that span. But, Happy Valley will be rocking Saturday night. But. Mario Manningham will miss the game. Against my better judgement, I'll go with Penn State to get a modicum of revenge in ruining Michigan's perfect season as the Wolverines did to the Lions last year.
Winner: Penn State

Blog Poll Week VII

1 Ohio State--'only' beat Bowling Green by 28 (LW 1)
2 Southern Cal-- different team without Dwayne Jarrett (LW 2)
3 Florida-- if they beat Auburn this week, will be #2 (LW 6)
4 Michigan-- Super Mario out against Penn State (LW 4)
5 Louisville-- rolling along (LW 5)
6 Texas-- 2 in a row for Mack (LW 8)
7 Tennessee-- hung 51 on a good defense (LW 12)
8 Cal-- Pac 10 silver medalist (LW 13)
9 West Virginia-- flying under the radar (LW 9)
10 Clemson-- lucky to survive Groves Stadium (LW 10)
11 Auburn-- no one saw that coming (LW 3)
12 Notre Dame-- beat a bad Stanford team (LW 15)
13 Iowa-- nice bounce back over Purdue (LW 16)
14 Nebraska-- won easily in Ames (LW 18)
15 LSU-- lost both games against teams with a pulse (LW 7)
16 Georgia Tech-- is this the year they avoid the bad loss? (LW 19)
17 Georgia-- 2 special teams TDs and the lose by double digits (LW 11)
18 Missouri-- North favorites? (LW 21)
19 Arkansas-- 33 to 1 odds to win the SEC in July (LW NR)
20 Virginia Tech-- hard to get a read on the Hokies this year (LW 20)
21 Oregon-- not even close against Cal (LW 14)
22 Boise State-- half way to unbeaten season (LW 23)
23 Pitt-- bounced back since loss to Spartans (LW NR)
24 Rutgers-- tough game against Navy this week (LW 24)
25 Wisconsin-- rolling along without Alvarez (LW NR)

Dropped out:
17 Oklahoma-- Stoops' troops lost two in a row in the shootout
22 Florida State-- how the mighty have fallen
25 Washington-- acquitted themselves in LA, but Badgers, Panthers, and Hogs had big wins so they fall out

Creeping around:
Navy-- showdown with Rutgers this weekend
Wake Forest-- need to rebound against rejuvenated NC State team
BYU-- Cougs probably win Mountain West

College Football Delayed Reaction

I. I don't know that I've ever been more emotionally invested in a game than the one I was at Saturday. Through 3 quarters my Deacons could do no wrong, and then on the first play of the 4th quarter it all went away faster than the career of Men Without Hats. Hopefully the teams emotional status is better than mine with a tough road game against a seemingly rejuvenated NC State squad this weekend.

II. Speaking of NC State, are they a different team under Evans or is their 2-0 conference start a fortuitous combination of luck (Boston College) and emotion (NC State always gets up for FSU)?

III. What has happened to Fresno State? With their loss to Utah State (1-5) the Bulldogs drop to 1-7 since nearly shocking the world in Los Angeles last November.

IV. Congrats to Louisiana-Lafayette. In a win that definitely flew under the radar the Rajun Cajuns defeated Houston 31-28 (in Houston) to run their record to 3-2. Since becoming head coach in 2002, Ricky Bustle, has helped the Rajun Cajuns improve their winning percentage each season, culminating with their 6-5 Sun Belt Co-Championship last season. Don't expect them to compete with the big boys any time soon (witness their beatdowns to LSU and Texas A&M to start the year), but beating a team on the road that came within one point of beating Miami in the Orange Bowl is a pretty big deal for the Sun Belt favorite.

V. The NCAA's best coach (Paul Johnson) has Navy sitting at 5-1 after a victory over Air Force. The Midshipmen are a missed extra point away from being unbeaten. The talent differential is probably too great for the Mids to hang with Notre Dame, but no coach in the country gets more out of his players than the Navy head man.

October Fest

The first Saturday in October brings fans of college football a glut of quality action. Key conference games could eliminate some teams (LSU and Iowa) from contention while serving as springboards (Wake Forest and Missouri) for others.

Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 43-27

Arkansas at Auburn
Both these teams enter the game undefeated in the SEC. However, a quick glance at point differential will reveal the better team. In two conference games, Arkansas has outscored its opponents by 3 points. In three conference games, Auburn has outscored its opponents by 45 points. The Tigers also have a win over perhaps the conference's second best team (LSU) in their back pocket. A win here sets the Tigers up for a national title shot as they only have to leave the state of Alabama once more before a possible SEC Championship Game appearance. Both teams want to pound the ball with quality backs, but while Arkansas starts a true freshman, Mitch Mustain, at quarterback, Auburn counters with experience in Brandon Cox. For Arkansas to have a shot, they must win the turnover battle. However, the Hogs are last in the NCAA having forced only one turnover all season. Brandon Cox will avoid making mistakes and the Tigers will win rather easily.
Winner: Auburn

Penn State at Minnesota
This game will go a long way towards determining how good these teams are. Neither team has a real impressive win (Kent State, Temple, Akron, Youngstown State, and Northwestern rresent the sum of their scalps), and each team has faltered against superior competition. Since throwing 3 touchdowns against Akron on Labor Day Weekend, Penn State quarterback Anthony Morelli has managed just 1 touchdown pass on the year. That does include one game against Ohio State, but also contests against Notre Dame, Youngstown State, and Northwestern--teams with pourous at best defenses. Minnesota has been doing what they always do under Glenn Mason--run the football. They rank 15th nationally in rushing offense averaging over 200 yards per game. The Gophers will continue to do what they do under Mason--beating mediocre conference opponents at home. In Mason's tenure, the Gophers are 18-5 at home against conference opponents with 7 wins or less. Make it 19-5.
Winner: Minnesota

Clemson at Wake Forest
This is easily the biggest game for Wake Forest football during my fanhood. Wake is 5-0, but is without the quarterback and running back they began the season with. A relatively soft early schedule coupled with a defense that returned 10 starters has the Deacons at 5-0 for the first time since 1987. This weekend, they get possibly the ACC's top team in Groves Stadium, a place that has been a house of horrors for Clemson recently (lost last 2 there). Unfortunately, the Deacs are a bit out of their league in this game. Their only hope is to dramatically win the turnover battle (+3 or more) and take advantage of some likely Clemson special team's gaffes. In other words, the only way Wake wins if if Clemson pulls a George Strait and just gives it away.
Winner: Clemson

Purdue at Iowa
Believe it or not, Purdue still has an outside shot at the Big 10 title. They avoid both the heavyweights, Michigan and Ohio State, this season. Already standing 1-0 in conference play, the only thing separating Purdue from a trip to Pasadena is an atrocious defense. But hey at least its consistent. The Boilers have allowed 35, 31, 28, 21, and 35 points in their five games this season. Expect at least 31 more in this game. Iowa has not been the top-10 caliber squad many expected this season, but they are good enough to take out Purdue at home.
Winner: Iowa

Washington at Southern Cal
Things are looking up in Tyrone Willingham's sophomore campaign. The Huskies have already doubled last season's win total and exceeded the total for the past two seasons. Saturday though, they will find out just how far they have left to go. The Trojans got tested last week in Pullman, and will be playing just their second home game on Saturday. The offense is far from the uber-touchdown machine it was last year, but the defense has improved dramatically. Last year's dynamic offense masked most of the defenses struggles. Consider this: Last season, the Trojans held one team to 10 points or fewer (Cal). This year, they've already held two teams to 10 points or fewer. Make it 3.
Winner: Southern Cal

LSU at Florida
We'll learn a lot about the Tigers after this weekend. They have crushed all their opponents thus far save Auburn. Those four wins have come against Arizona (2-3), Louisiana-Lafayette (2-2), Tulane (1-3), and Mississippi State (1-4). In addition, all those wins have come at home. In their lone road trip, the Tigers stumbled in a defensive struggle at Auburn. Conversely, the Gators have done two things the Tigers have yet to do.
1) beat good teams--Tennessee and Bama, and heck even Kentucky and Southern Miss
2) win on the road--Tennessee
Still, I think Vegas has it right in making LSU the favorite. The Tigers have a stout fast defense that will shut down the Gators spread option attack.
Winner: LSU

Texas versus Oklahoma at Dallas
Texas has destroyed every team it has played save for Ohio State. Their best scalp thus far has been Iowa State (3-2, but 3 wins by a combined 9 points over Toledo, UNLV, and Northern Iowa). Oklahoma on the other hand has occasionally looked less than impressive in winning (by 7 over a 2-3 UAB team) and lost a tough road contest that they may not have lost had rules been interpretted correctly. In their most recent scrimmage, the Sooners looked like the vintage 2000-2004 version in stomping Middle Tennessee State 59-0. This should be one of the more competitive Red River Shootouts in recent memory. I'll give the nod to the boys from Norman believing they have something to prove after the Oregon debacle.
Winner: Oklahoma

South Carolina at Kentucky
If ever a game had trap written all over it, this is it. Fresh off a nationally televised near win over the #2 team in the country, the Gamecocks head to Lexington where Kentucky has yet to lose this season. In addition, the last 3 games between these teams in Lexington have all been close with South Carolina taking each one (20-17 in 2000, 16-12 in 2002, and 12-7 in 2004). Let's also not forget that those bookend Kentucky teams (2000 and 2004) were awful (both 2-9). The Cats have been able to put points on the board this season, especially at home where they have yet to score fewer than 30. Quarterback Andre Woodson has been particularly efficient this season completing better than 60% of his passes and tossing 14 touchdowns against 2 interceptions. I think the Cats eek out a win here. I'm not extremely confident in picking the winner, but I'm pretty confident the over is a pretty safe bet in this game.
Winner: Kentucky

Tennessee at Georgia
The last in a glut of key SEC games this weekend. Georgia has been this season's Alabama--scraping by in each game thanks to a great defense and equally inept offense. Pair DJ Shockley or David Green with this defense and the Dawgs would be national championship contenders. As it stands, most are just waiting for the inevitable--a game where Georgia's defensive prowess simply cannot overcome its poor offense. This is that game. After a one year hiatus, Tennessee is back.
Winner: Tennessee

Michigan State at Michigan
If this is truly the Michigan State team we all know and love, there are only two possible outcomes to this game.
1) Sparty comes out strong and hangs on to stun Michigan ending their national and possibly their Big 10 title hopes.
2) Sparty comes out strong and chokes away a chance for a marquee upset win.
Amazingly, I think Michigan wins this game rather handily. Losing at home to Illinois is simply inexcusable. The Wolverines will roll here.
Winner: Michigan

Oregon at Cal
After everyone wrote them off following their disastrous opener in Knoxville, the Bears have won 4 straight and have scored at least 41 points in each game. After winning the controversial Oklahoma game, the Ducks went into the desert and dismantled the Arizona State Sun Devils. In this battle for the pac 10 silver medal, take the home team.
Winner: Cal

Missouri at Texas Tech
Are the Tigers for real? The next two weeks will let us know. They travel to Texas Tech this week and then to Texas A&M next week. A sweep and they are North Division favorites. A split, and they're in the conversation. A sweep, and well, Shreveport is nice this time of year. The key here will be how well Missouri performs on third down. They have been absolutely deadly so far this season converting over 52% of their 3rd downs (9th nationally). In their lone road trip, the Tigers were tested by a mediocre at best New Mexico team. I'm tempted to take the Red Raiders, but they just don't seem to be as strong as they were last season.
Winner: Missouri

Nebraska at Iowa State
Maybe the Black Shirts aren't back just yet. Nebraska got shredded by Kansas in the second half and nearly blew a big lead...at home. Now they go on the road for only the second time all season. Iowa State has treated its home fans to 3 thrillers thus far. They beat Toledo by 2 in triple OT, UNLV by 6, and Northern Iowa by 1. Under Callahan, Nebraska is 3-7 on the road. Iowa State has won their last 2 home games against the Huskers. In a mild upset, they make it 3 in a row.
Winner: Iowa State

Washington State at Oregon State
This may be the most important game of the season for both these teams (excluding the Apple Cup and the Civil War). The winner is likely bowl bound, and the loser is likely home for the holidays. Washington State particularly needs this game, as another bowl-less season would make 3 in a row. They'll be one step closer to bowl eligibility after this weekend.
Winner: Washington State

Revised Similarity Scores: Pitt

The team similarity scores have been revised thanks to some input from Sam. As always if you have any suggestions feel free to let me know in the comment section. The new methodology is detailed at the end of this post. The team I'm going to examine today is a team that both I and Phil Steele believed to be a Big East sleeper in the preseason: the Pitt Panthers.

The most similar teams to Pittsburgh (2006) from last season--similarity score in parentheses and final record following

1. Michigan State (861.2) 5-6
2. Oregon (839.4) 10-2
3. Nebraska (802.2) 8-4
4. Kansas State (793.2) 5-6
5. Minnesota (684.4) 7-5
6. Colorado (681.6) 7-6

Michigan State may be the most similar team, but I wouldn't expect Pitt to end the season with a losing record. For all the absurd supernatural and endemic qualities sportswriters tend to assign to teams, I think they are on to something in the case of the Spartans. Michigan State seems to just not be able to rebound from tough defeats whether the coach is John Smith, Bobby Williams, or Nick Saban. I don't think they are bound for Oregon near-BCS territory (not with both Louisville and West Virginia left on the schedule), but I think Nebraska is a pretty good comp. A regular season finish of somewhere between 7-5 and 9-3 depending on how well they play on the road seems about right.

Here's the methodology.

1. Start with 1000 points

2. Through 'x' number of games take the difference in winning percentage multiply by 1000 and subtract from 1000example: Team A is 4-0 and Team B 3-1, then the difference in winning percentage would be 1-.75=.25, multiplying this by 1000=250, subtract this number from 1000

3. Multiply the difference in points scored per game by 3 and subtract this amount (similar teams should score similar amounts)

4. Multiply the difference in points allowed per game by 3 and subtract this amount (similar teams should allow a similar amount of points)

5. Multiply the difference in average opponents' Sagarin Rating (I think its a pretty good measure of schedule strength) by 2 and subtract this amount

6. Subtract the difference multiplied by 1000 in previous year's record (we need to know how good the team's were in the previous season)

7. Subtract the difference multiplied by 1000 in previous year's Pythagorean Winning Percentage (a better indicator of team strength than actual record)

8. The remaining points are the teams' similarity score (the higher the better)

The home/road inequality has been eliminated in order to increase the sample of possible similar teams. I think similar record is more important than similar schedule when prospecting forward.

Blog Poll Week VI

1 Ohio State-- new number 1 after their relatively easy win in Iowa (LW 2)
2 Southern Cal-- Kirk Herbstreit almost got it right (LW 1)
3 Auburn-- held the ball the entire 3rd quarter against South Carolina (LW 3)
4 Michigan-- the Dome is their second home (LW 4)
5 Louisville-- blowout in the Cards this weekend (LW 5)
6 Florida-- two toughest games come the next two weeks (LW 6)
7 LSU-- wouldn't be surprised if they walked out of The Swamp with a win (LW 7)
8 Texas-- Red River Shootout (LW 8)
9 West Virginia-- slowly moving up (LW 12)
10 Clemson-- ACC's best team (LW 15)
11 Georgia-- they play some defense (and thank goodness), because the offense is pretty bad (LW 10)
12 Tennessee-- big game in the conference race at Athens (LW 13)
13 Cal-- battle for second in the Pac 10 this week (LW 14)
14 Oregon-- rolled over the Sun Devil's defense (LW 19)
15 Notre Dame-- let's give Quinn the Heisman for schredding one of the worst defenses in Division I (LW 15)
16 Iowa-- still have a chance for a very good season (LW 11)
17 Oklahoma-- Adrian Peterson is the reason God made Oklahoma (LW 20)
18 Nebraska-- vaunted Husker defense struggled against a mediocre at best Kansas O (LW 18)
19 Georgia Tech-- impressive victory over Virginia Tech, now which winnable game (Maryland, North Carolina, NC State, or Duke) will they blow (LW NR)
20 Virginia Tech-- warning signs were there (LW 9)
21 Missouri-- deadly on third down (LW 17)
22 Florida State-- need to get ahold of some Amato Gellato (LW 22)
23 Boise State-- impressive win over Utah, but I just think teams ahead of them are better (LW 25)
24 Rutgers-- will Schiano bolt after the season? (LW NR)
25 Washington-- same record as Notre Dame (LW NR)

Teams that dropped out:
21 Michigan State-- meltdown on
23 TCU-- BCS hopes dashed
24 Texas A&M-- why did they fire RC Slocum?

Teams creeping around:
Wake Forest-- in with a win this weekend
Wisconsin-- haven't missed a beat so far
Arkansas-- big game against Auburn this weekend

TCU fell on Thursday, is the WAC Commissioner Worried His BCS-Buster Might Follow Suit? Boise Ever

Last Week: 12-2
Overall: 35-21

Colorado at Missouri
Dan Hawkins probably wouldn't have drawn it up this way, but what is pleasure without pain? Conversely, this season is going about as well as Gary Pinkel could have hoped. The no-huddle offense has confounded opponents, and the defense has held three of four opponents to under 10 points. Alas, Missouri has the look, if you'll excuse the pun of being a paper tiger. A dearth of quality opponents has inflated Missouri's record so far. Fortunately for Mizzou, the Rockies have amore potent offense that the Buffs. If not for their solid defense, Colorado would struggle to make the Division III playoffs. That defense will keep them in this game, but the ineptness of the offense will consistently give Missouri good field position and the Tigers will roar out to a 5-0 start.
Winner: Missouri

Wyoming at Syracuse
When Donovan McNabb roamed the Carrier Dome sidelines, this game would be over by halftime. Now a very dangerous Wyoming team has a chance for a season-altering win. Since opening the season with a 38-7 drubbing of Utah State, the Cowboys have lost 3 consecutive nailbiters (by 1 to Virginia, followed by a pair of 7 point defeats to Boise State and Air Force). Syracuse has already doubled last season's win total and is always tough at home (case in point the narrow loss to a top-10 caliber Iowa team). Wyoming will keep it close, but will be a hard luck 1-4 at the close of business on Saturday.
Winner: Syracuse

Purdue at Notre Dame
One of these teams is still undefeated and controls its own destiny in the race for the national title. One of these teams has scored at least 20 points in every game. One of these teams has not given up 40 points in any game. Those 3 characteristics all apply to Purdue. A bias in reporting information can drastically distort reality. Case in point, last Saturday night. Forget the great comeback, this Irish team has serious problems on defense. Purdue will gain some yards and score some points. Unfortunately, it won't be enough. Notre Dame will win, but for all the talking heads who proclaim that the Irish will not lose a game until playing the Trojans, well, lets not go licking our lollipops just yet.
Winner: Notre Dame

Alabama at Florida
Its payback time. Last season the Tide rolled over the Gators 31-3 in Tuscaloosa and ended Urban Meyer's honeymoon with a vicious lover's spat. This season, the Tide's defense is not as strong and the Gators offense appears to be much improved with Chris Leak running the spread to the best of his abilities. Still, Gator fans can only imagine what next season will be like with wunderkid Tim Tebow running the show. Florida won't win by 4 touchdowns, but they will make last year's game a distant memory.
Winner: Florida

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
The Hokies have looked very sluggish thus far needing a big 4th quarter to outlast Cincinnati two weeks after struggling in for the first half of their first road game against North Carolina. For those folks looking for a Yellow Jacket win, here are three reasons to think again.
1. The games in Blacksburg.
2. Its not November, the Hokies haven't entered their patented swoon.
3. Reggie Ball
Winner: Virginia Tech

Houston at Miami
Teams Houston has a better record than: Texas, Oklahoma, Miami, Florida State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Arizona State, Cal, and UCLA (among others). If this game was in Houston, the Cougs would have a shot. Unfortunately, its in Coral Gables. In their only road game this season, the Cougars beat Rice by one point. Gulp.
Winner: Miami

Washington at Arizona
Congrats to Tyrone Willingham and the Huskies on their 3-1 start. However, according to team similarity scores (which still has lots of room for improvement) the Huskies are most similar to a pair of mid-level bowl teams from last season--Kansas and South Florida. Those teams finished a combined 13-11 and went 2-8 on the road. The Huskies hired the right man, but they're still in for some growing pains.
Winner: Arizona

Oregon at Arizona State
The Ducks have had a week off to prepare for the Sun Devils and hear about how they shafted Oklahoma out of a win. They may have gotten some breaks from the officials (and Bob Stoops' play calling), but they still scored two touchdowns against the Sooners in the last 3 minutes. This one has all the makings of a Pac 10 shootout. The only offense Arizona State has held in check has been the anemic one in Boulder and some feisty lumberjacks in Northern Arizona. Oregon's defense has not exactly been lights out either, except against Stanford. Arizona State has the homefield advantage, but Oregon has the better coach.
Winner: Oregon

Texas Tech at Texas A&M
Dennis Franchione has taken a page from the Mike Leach book on scheduling. His teams' scalps include wins against The Citadel, Army, and a pair of Lowsyana school (Tech and Lafayette). Despite writing the book on soft non-conference schedules, Mike Leach inexplicably took his Red Raiders on the road to TCU and UTEP. The result: an overtime win and an embarrassing showing against the Horned Frogs where the offense managed one field goal. That TCU team that looked so strong defensively--BYU put 31 on them Thursday night.
Winner: Texas A&M

Michigan at Minnesota
Last season Minnesota was content to go to overtime in the Big House before Gary Russell broke off a 63 yard run to turn the tide and help the Gophers win on a late field goal. The last 3 games between these teams have been decided by 3 points. Since the games in the dome, this one will probably be close too. Michigan is too talented to lose to a Minnesota team that may miss out on postseason play.
Winner: Michigan

Navy at Connecticut
This is probably the toughest game on the board to pick. On the one hand you have a Huskie team thats 2-1, but is changing quarterbacks. On the other, you have a Navy team thats played and won one road game (terrible Stanford), and always seems to play everyone close. Paul Johnson has done wonders for the Navy program and they will be heading to their fourth straight bowl game come December. However, the Huskies will go to 3-1 after pulling out a nailbiter.
Winner: Connecticut

Bowling Green at Ohio
In his second season, Frank Solich has the Bobcats in great position to compete for the MAC title. His teams aren't talented enough to compete with the BCS schools yet (see consecutive losses to Rutgers and Missouri), but against conference foes they have all the right moves. This is the conference home opener for Ohio. Thats bad news for Bowling Green which needed 3 OTs to knock off Buffalo at home and fell 38-3 to Kent State last weekend. Ohio will move to 2-0 in conference play.
Winner: Ohio

Ohio State at Iowa
The marquee game of the night. As much as I want the Hawkeyes to upset the Buckeyes, they have looked less than impressive in their first 4 games. Needing OT to beat Syracuse and starting slowly against Montana, Iowa State, Illinois is not what great teams do. The Buckeyes are a great team, and though they will be tested this weekend, they will pull away in the fourth quarter.
Winner: Ohio State

Boise State at Utah
For the non-BCS fans, this is the marquee game of the night. Boise is 4-0 and barring a Houston upset this weekend is the small timers best chance to crash the BCS party. In an ironic twist, they face the only school to ever do so. Boise is a different team away from the Smurf Turf. In three home games they have scored over 40 points in each game. In their one road test they managed 17.
Winner: Utah

More Similarity Scores: Rutgers and Washington

Yesterday's attempt at team similarity scores got me wondering about what the future holds for other surprise teams. I chose two of the more interesting surprise teams IMO, Rutgers and Washington. With a quick glance at Rutgers preseason schedule, most prognosticators probably had them at worst, 3-1. Still, an undefeated Scarlet Knight's squad in late September is something to take note of. Certainly few expected the Washington Huskies to have already matched their win total for the past two seasons in one month. The mathematical details for calculating the similarity scores are at the end of this post so as not to discourage you from reading further. Also, as explained yesterday, I'm only using a one-season look back. Hopefully next week I'll expand the look backs to two or three seasons to get a more representative sample. Still, I think this method has its merits.

The most similar teams to Rutgers (2006) from last season--similarity score in parentheses and final record following

1. Minnesota (856) 7-5
2. UCLA (823) 10-2
3. Florida (775.25) 9-3
4. Penn State (666.75) 11-1
5. Wisconsin (666.5) 10-3

I think these comparables are pretty good for the Knights, except for Penn State. Like Rutgers, each team, with the exception of Penn State, went to a bowl game the season before. Also like Rutgers, all of these teams, with the exception of Penn State, were good, but hardly elite BCS conference teams. With Rutgers remaining schedule, a 9 or 10 win season is certainly a possibility.

The most similar teams to Washington (2006) from last season-- similarity score in parentheses and final record following

1. South Florida (649.5) 6-6
2. Kansas (456.5) 7-5
3. Texas A&M (198.25) 5-6

The Huskies don't have nearly as strong comps primarily because their record (2-9) was so bad last season. Both South Florida and Kansas seem like good comparables. They both finished 4-7 the year prior, before breaking out and participating in a low to mid level bowl game. I'd expect the same from Washington.

Here's the methodology.

1. Start with 1000 points

2. Through 'x' number of games take the difference in winning percentage multiply by 1000 and subtract from 1000
example: Team A is 4-0 and Team B 3-1, then the difference in winning percentage would be 1-.75=.25, multiplying this by 1000=250, subtract this number from 1000

3. For every game difference in home/road inequality subtract 50 points
example: Team A has played 2 road games and 2 home games, Team B has played 3 road games and 1 home game, subtract 50 points (neutral sites count as half games)

4. Subtract the difference in point differential through 'x' number of games

5. Subtract the difference in average opponents' Sagarin Rating (I think its a pretty good measure of schedule strength)

6. Subtract the difference multiplied by 1000 in previous year's record (we need to know how good the team's were in the previous season)

7. Subtract the difference multiplied by 1000 in previous year's Pythagorean Winning Percentage (a better indicator of team strength than actual record)

8. The remaining points are the teams' similarity score (the higher the better)